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Bundesliga 2023/24 Season Futures | Bundesliga Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

 

 

Flash:

Welcome to the BetUS Soccer Channel. I’m Flash. It’s Bundesliga Futures Show 2023/24. Normally it’s just a benevolent of Bayern Munich but now all of a sudden we’ve got so many other teams that could push them all the way, or we just put Bayern as champions and then we try it and find the value. But first of all, your America’s favorite sportsbook, we’d like you to subscribe and ring the bell. And if you like your Soccer odds and props, well, we have just gone a few steps further this year the no point 25 has been added. So type in betustv.com/odds. And that point 25 that paid dividends in the Premier League Show last week. It may well do so throughout the Bundesliga season as well.

We’re going to have chats. We’re going to have a Q&A. And also, I’ve got to introduce my brand new shiny team. From last year returning is Alex Classic Tips. He’s in the red. And Alex Classic is both teams to score and over. Now, we had all sorts of dealings with his agent to get him across from the Premier League to the Bundesliga. So this year, remember he started on Bundesliga, went to Premier League and now we’ve brought him home. It’s Mark Stinchcombe. Stinch, good to have you back mate.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yes, Flash, the Bundesliga I think has got such a range of potential in terms of profitability, especially given the huge turnover in players. And if you can get onto a team, early doers that are underrated by the market, I think there’s a good scope to ride them for a few weeks and make some good money. So looking forward to it. It could almost argue that it’s Bayern and then 17 other teams all scrapping for survival or top four. So, I think it’s going to be very exciting. We see lots of times teams near the bottom like Bochum, Augsburg upset the apple cart with wins not something you’d associate with the Premier League. So lots and lots of fun ones there and obviously very goal heavy as well.

Flash:

Let’s start this whole season off on a massive positive. Last year, this time last year your presenter gave you Hertha relegated plus 1000 and Schalke plus 350 to go down. Both of them through the trap door. And just to tip it off, Alex, Dortmund choking on the last day of the season, so let’s get this off to a great start.

Alex Campean:

I knew that you will start with that. I still don’t believe it, but it is what it is. New season ahead of us. A lot of money to be made. A great transfer window, to be honest, I think that is the craziest transfer window so far. Not only in Bundesliga but worldwide. And I’m referring to the Saudi Arabia taking many, many important players from Europe. Dortmund losing their best player, Bayern signing one of the best strikers in Europe right now. Let’s see how he will fit and if they will change the system for him, how they will play. Because there are a lot of players in that Bayern squad that can find the back of the net.

So that is why I’m not risking a bet on him to win the Golden Boot. Union Berlin will have problems, I think, because they’re playing in the Champions League, and they’re playing in the group stages with the top teams and they will definitely struggle in the domestic league. Some great signings from RB Leipzig, Leverkusen also. A lot of changes in that team. A lot of players left, a lot of new signings. Let’s see. I can’t wait.

Flash:

Stinch, we talk about this league and it’s normally all about goals. Dortmund, I’ve seen them in preseason and again I see them as potentially being top scorers. Problem is they look even more pedestrian at the back and through midfield and losing their Rolls Royce as well.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I mean Bellingham is a huge loss the season after losing Haaland, two obviously massive cogs in that team. Also lost Raphael Guerreiro at left back, who was very good for them, especially going forward. Between him and Bellingham they contributed 12 goals and 16 assists last season. They brought in Bensebaini from Mochengladbach, who’s a very good replacement I would say for Guerreiro. But obviously Guerreiro’s gone to Bayern. So you could argue that further strengthens Bayern in reserve. They signed Sabitzer in midfield. But I don’t think we’ve really seen the best of him since he’s left Leipzig.

They also brought in Felix Nmeche from Wolfsburg in central midfield. I’m not sure he’s going to be the one that adds to maybe what they’ve lost with Bellingham. So a lot, a lot of work to do in my opinion for Dortmund. And I’m not really convinced by the manager either as well. It was right for them, right, to win the league last season. They had an open goal basically and they managed to somehow mess it up. And I think he’s only ever won a German Cup, Terzic. So I would be against Bayern at the current outright prices there. The outright second favor would not be backing them at plus 500 to win the league, no chance.

Flash:

Plus 500 or minus 500?

Alex Campean:

Plus 500 for Dortmund to win the league, under five.

Flash:

I mean there’s two trains of thought. You can say that Dortmund, they’re actually going to come out the traps and they’re going to avenge or they’re going to have that sort of emotional hangover. I’ve seen them scoring goals, it’s one of those. But let’s have a little chat about the two newcomers because not a lot of people, Alex, will know these two. So is it square to just say they are going to really struggle throughout the next 36 games?

Alex Campean:

Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. Heidenheim first promotion in their history. But a very experienced manager in Frank Schmitt. 586 games for this team, I don’t know, since 2007 when he took charge. So this is a great story. And very small stadium, but the atmosphere in the stands was absolutely amazing. In the last match you remember that they were down one goal in the last minutes of the game Hamburg were automatically promoted. All the Hamburg fans went on the pitch to celebrate with the team. And after that Heidenheim scored two goals in three minutes and they secured automatic promotion.

So that is a really good story. I don’t think that they have the budget necessarily to compete in the Bundesliga. A lot of players on loan, a lot of newcomers from small teams even from this wide Bundesliga. And on the other side we have Darmstadt. A bit more experienced than Heidenheim. Back in Bundesliga after six years of absence. I think that you can say that they have a very good defense and-

Flash:

They’re going to need it.

Alex Campean:

… all their, despite the Bundesliga season, was backed by their defense mostly at home. This is-

Mark Stinchcombe:

Alex, did you see them last week in the first round of the German Cup though losing three nil to Hamburg?

Alex Campean:

Yeah, I understand your point of view, but it was the first competitive match of the season. I still have them to be relegated this season at even money there, but we’ll talk more about that later. I think that those two teams are two teams to fade like many others. Because I also see some other teams to fade this season.

Flash:

Excellent. Let’s move again. Now let’s just kick straight in and put some meat on the bone with our first market. Because our first market is obviously, as it is always, it’s to win Bundesliga without Bayern Munich, and Dortmund at minus 120 looks like it’s basically a free hit for something else. You’ve got Leipzig plus 250. Well, I took Leipzig bigger than plus 250. We have like 10 weeks to go and they still couldn’t get it done. Leverkusen at plus 900 looks like a real, real value because I think Leverkusen will be very strong. Union are going to struggle. Frankfurt will score goals and we’ll go onto them a little bit later. But Freiburg, Wolfsburg, and Monchengladbach are all going to be happy to be there. Stinch, Dortmund minus 120 to come second at the start looks decent.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I mean I’ve already sort of touched on Dortmund. I’m not too enamored with them at the prices we’ll say. I think they’ve got everything to prove basically with the loss of Bellingham and a little bit of Guerreiro as well. Leipzig have had huge turnover in players. They lost Nkunku, Szoboszlai, Konrad Laimer, Gvardiol in defense, literally their spine. Andre Silva left, recently on loan to Sociedad as well. But they brought in Lois Openda from Liege, 21 goals last season. Sesko from Salzburg who was highly sought after. And they brought in Seenabach to replace Castello Lukeba from France as well. And they’ve also strengthened midfield with Xavi Simmons from PSG, Baumgartner from Hoffenheim, and Nicholas Saywell from Salzburg.

So all in all they spend 151 million euros, so they put a lot of work into it, a lot more than Dortmund. Not saying that guarantees success, just saying they have done a lot, a lot of turnover. But I think we saw what they did to Bayern in the Super Cup final that they’re not to be messed with. They’ve got a really in-depth squad in my opinion. Still got Timo Werner, Dani Olmo, Forsberg in midfield, Simakan in central defense, Willi Orban. I think they’ve got a really, really good squad. And I think Leipzig here plus 250 is a little bit disrespectful.

However, having said that, Dortmund have finished above Leipzig in four of the last five seasons. You just wonder with that player turnover that often happens with Leipzig. We know their business model. We know they buy these young players and they sell them and then they do the same again in the summer. Sometimes maybe it takes them a little while to gel, but what I saw last weekend was they looked in good shape. And as I say, I quite like the players that they’ve managed to keep hold of basically.

Leverkusen very interesting plus 900 not too impressed with their business. They’ve brought in 30 year old Xhaka and Jonas Hofmann. They brought in Boniface up front from Union St. Gilloise who we saw a lot of in the Europa League last season. He only match nine goals in Belgium. So I think he’s got a lot to prove. And obviously they lost Moussa Diaby to Aston Villa. Having said that, Xabi Alonso, when he came in last season, 26 games in charge he had, he joined in the beginning of October. They collected the fourth most points across those games.

So you definitely have them up there, but I still think they’re a little bit off the top three basically in Bayern, Dortmund, and Leipzig. So Alex makes a good point about Union having to juggle Champions League this season. They did well to juggle Europa League last season, so I think they’ll be okay. I remember a couple of seasons ago when we discussed Union and I spoke about keep an eye on them in terms of relegation because they are massively punching above their weight.

They overachieved last season by 20 expected points, which is absolutely enormous. So you can understand the plus 2000 odds there and arguably should potentially be higher. Although I do like the couple of loan signings they brought in. They brought in Fofana from Chelsea and Brandon Aaronson from Leeds who didn’t really get much of a look in. So I think they’ll be fine. They’ll be in and around that top eight again I would imagine. So it’s a little bit of a leap of faith. But what I say, what I saw of Leipzig in the Super Cup last weekend, and the fact that they still got a nice core squad, and I like the dealings that they’ve done. I think Leipzig a little bit big here plus 250, but as you mentioned Flash, be prepared to be disappointed. Because I think with all their young players, what you get with young players, you do get a bit of volatility in terms of consistent performances.

Flash:

And the arrogance that goes through the club. The arrogance can be shown during a game. I mean as soon as you think you’ve got a handle on Leipzig, and this is during the 90 minutes, not over a course of six weeks, they can be two nil up and then they throw it away, and you just cannot afford to do that if you are going to chase Bayern.

Alex, I think Dortmund at minus 120 almost lends its hand to give you a free hit on something else. And I love the signings of Leverkusen because they’re basically going to stop them being vulnerable in transition. Because with Leverkusen, they’ll score three, but they’ll also give the opportunity, the opposition the opportunity to score three also.

Alex Campean:

Leverkusen problem is always at the back and I think that they only had plus eight on the goals difference last season if I remember correct. Which is very, very low for a team like Leverkusen fighting for a top four and being in this market without Bayern to win the league. I’m impressed with RB Leipzig, let’s say, a little bit of a transformation losing three of their best players. But bringing in some absolutely amazing youngsters like Simmons, like Openda, like that central defender that plays a little bit like Voller. And he was impressive in league last season.

Eintracht Frankfurt shouldn’t even be here because they brought in 20 new players including the end of loan. They lost Daichi Kamada, one of their important, important players. They lost Ndicka to Rome. They lost Djibril Sow to Seville. So I think that they shouldn’t even be in this list. I mean with who will they will play here, with Gotze? I don’t think so. And yes, I think that you’re making a good point about Leverkusen, but again they need a bit of more consistency at the back, because this is where they are shaky and they will struggle again this season. I think that Leipzig looks even better than last season. I don’t know, I have this feeling.

Flash:

That’s a bold statement when you’re taking in Nkunku out of the side because he scores the goals. If he didn’t score, they didn’t score, they struggled.

Alex Campean:

True, true. But I feel that the transfers that they did, yes, you said about their age, about being new, about needing some more time to find their best shape and to be integrated in the system. But I think that you’ll be surprised with this Leipzig team. Dortmund, I’m sad to say, but who will do, who will score goals? Who will do the midfield? Marco Reus. How many minutes will Marco Reus play in a game? I love him. He’s the symbol of the team. He gave the badge in the summer because he feels that he cannot be responsible anymore on the pitch, and he knows already that he will not play for many minutes. Moukoko who will be… They didn’t spend well. They have to spend on what they want on Bellingham. They don’t have the money.

Flash:

I think you reverse psychology here. And I think you’ll still be supporting Dortmund from week one. They scored-

Alex Campean:

From my heart, yes, from my heart, yes.

Flash:

But they scored six or seven last week.

Alex Campean:

Betting wise, no, trust me, I’ll feed them many times. Mostly on the road. Mostly on the road.

Flash:

I think you just go with Dortmund to win and both teams to score or you just go over. But I love the fact that they’ve got a goalscorer and they will continue to score goals. But unlike Leverkusen that… Leverkusen’s problems wasn’t really so much at the back, they got overrun because there was no front screen of seeing danger early. They basically all overcommitted and they were too far apart. I think with the additions, I think, that they will win games. And they will be a little bit tougher to break down maybe showing a little bit more patience.

Why don’t we have a little look at the official picks of to win Bungesliga 2023/24 without the mighty Bayern. Oh boy, the lads are gone with Leipzig at plus 250. I wouldn’t stick… The way I would play it is I’d have 1.25 units on Dortmund at minus 120. I’m thinking that there’s my only danger. And then stick it on Leverkusen at plus 900 because I think Leverkusen are going to be really, really tough.

Let’s move on though because top four, this is one of those where you should get value right across the board. Because Leipzig and minus 300 but Leverkusen at minus 120. So remember we don’t see anyone coming in that top four other than Bayern, Dortmund, Leipzig, Leverkusen. Because Berlin Union are going to be actually under the cosh every midweek, every weekend. Their squad is maybe not big enough, but their mental strength, Alex, is not to be questioned. They are a real tough outfit. They don’t let in many goals. And when they do go forward, they could score three or maybe score two out of four or five chances.

Alex Campean:

So Union Berlin once again will be very hard to beat when they’re playing at home in front of their crowd, right. Because let’s not forget that last season at home Union Berlin was unbeaten 11 wins and 6 draws in 17 games. And not only that but they only considered 11 goals. So they are one of the teams to back when they’re playing at home. On the road they’re a different animal. Now with the Champions League, because how they will cope with this Champions League? You tell me. They don’t have the squad necessarily for a Champions League group stage.

It depends also the opponents that they will be drawn with in the group. Because if there will be two tough teams then, let’s say, a fourth one, not that complicated, they’ll fight for a Europa pick spot for the third place finish, right? But I don’t think that they will put all their eggs in one basket, which is the domestic league. They will try to compete also in the Champions League and offer their fans some great USL night. But I don’t think again that they have the squad.

And the top four is there. Maybe I will change a little bit there. I interact with Union, but the best value bet for me Leverkusen at minus 120. The players that they bought… Yes, they lost a little bit of experience because they lost Demirby, they lost Bellarabi. And of course, Musiala their best player in my opinion with the amazing pace. But they still have Florian Wirtz there. They brought in Victor Boniface, like Stinch mentioned, Alejandro Grimaldo from Benfica, a very good player. Jonas Hofmann in my opinion is the best transfer that they did in the transfer window. So I think that Leverkusen will be there in the top four, if not third, maybe, fourth but not under the fourth place. And that minus 120, you can have both places third and the fourth.

Flash:

Exactly. I just think that Leverkusen is probably your banker of the whole season. But Stinch, we look at Union Berlin, they finished third, right, in there if they get to the group stages, and they have that one weak side. Then they’re in the same situation as they were last year because they were in Europa League last year and they astounded most people. Home and away they scored. They went to some really tough places. So I’m thinking if they’ve just made the addition and mentally they feel as if they belong, they could put another run together and at least finish in the top six.

Mark Stinchcombe:

I agree. I wouldn’t be backing them at these prices. These prices are based on the actual lead position rather than the underlying numbers. But if they managed to cope with Thursday to Sundays, I think they should be all right with Tuesday and Wednesdays to weekend games. Essentially they’re going to get an extra day to rest in between some of these matches as well. So I think they’ll cope with it, but I could definitely, I think their range of potential finishing positions, I don’t see them finishing top four. Could be something like 6th to maybe 12th or something. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them finish bottom half just because of their consistent overperformance. I’d say 20 expected points they overachieved by. That’s nearly seven wins. That’s massive.

Freiburg themselves actually, they overachieved by 12 expected points. So, I don’t see them being in the conversation. I think essentially here we’re looking at one position aren’t we. I think we’d all agree that Bayern, Dortmund, and Leipzig have got three of the four positions nailed down. So we’re betting into one position, which is never fantastic as a gambler. It’s a bit like… Well, you would know in England, for example, Flash, if you’re betting relegation. You like betting relegation in League One you’ve got four places. You don’t really like betting relegation in League Two because you’re only betting into two places.

So that’s definitely something to be wary of here. Alex, makes a great point about Frankfurt, definitely not in the conversation. I think they must have some troubles behind the scenes I would argue given that they’ve lost these players and failed to replace them. We touched on Gladbach losing Marcus Thuram on a free transfer, Hofmann, Bensebaini, even someone like Lars Stindl was a very, very reliable Bundesliga player. He’s left as well. Wolfsburg, they brought in Joakim Maehle from Atalanta, but they lost-

Flash:

Stinch, one of the most dangerous teams in the last six, seven weeks of the season last year.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Wolfsburg?

Flash:

Yeah, Wolfsburg was so dangerous.

Mark Stinchcombe:

But I think basically what we’re saying here is the Bundesliga, it’s the usual story, buy and strengthen whilst all the rivals weaken. Or maybe in this particular conversation the top teams strengthen while the rivals weaken. So I wouldn’t be interested in any of them outside of Leverkusen. I just think minus 120 is not attractive price to sort of tie your money up for nine months.

Flash:

Winner’s a winner. Let’s have a little look at the official picks top four. A little bit of a husky voice for me at the moment. Some say they quite like it. And also just to let you know that this is not a two man team this year that is actually three. So whenever one of these boys are not here, Pavlos, who’s obviously from the La Liga show, but his strength is actually Bundesliga, he’s going to be joining us. So if Stinch is out injured, or Alex is out injured or cannot make it, then Pavlos will be filling in. So week one, funnily enough, Pavlos will take over from Stinch, so it will be a good squad rotation.

So let’s have a little look. Leverkusen at minus 120 for myself, and for Alex and Stinch basically he agrees, but doesn’t think that it’s worth the value for tying your money up all season. Let’s move on to be relegated. Well why don’t you… We got both of them last year. We went Hertha Berlin and Schalke plus 1000, plus 350. Stinch, are we looking at anything bigger than the Darmstadt plus 100 and Heidenheim at minus 110?

Mark Stinchcombe:

No, I don’t think so. I think Flash, like those two picks that you had last season, fantastic to get those two both as winners. Hertha, fantastic show. You said plus 1000? That was-

Flash:

Yeah, 10 to 1 they were. And they were relegated three weeks before the end of the season and I forgot. Because I was… So this is the beauty of Bundesliga and all the other leagues that I do. I’m so engrossed in game to game, week to week that I was concentrating on Schalke going down at plus 350 and then when I got to, I think, it was a week before the end of the season, I looked back all my futures and went, “Oh, how’s that for a gift?” So Dell said, “I hope it’s better than last year.” I think I was at plus 25 units for the Bundesliga last season.

Mark Stinchcombe:

So definitely a great head coach we’ve got in you for this section. I’m not sure you can really look past the top three in the market here. If you had to choose one of Heidenheim or Darmstadt, I find it very difficult. Alex already sort of touched on both of them. Heidenheim signed Marvin Pieringer from Schalke second Bundesliga. And Darmstadt signed, as a striker, signed Fraser Hornby from Reims who’s an English striker. He had eight goals last season in Belgium. I think that’s the levels that we’re talking about here. They’re scraping the barrel really. There is a big gulf between the Bundesliga and second Bundesliga.

I think we see it every season in the relegation playoff. The team that does finish third from bottom, they’re always sort of minus 300 to stay up in the end. And we saw what Stuttgart did to Hamburg in order to step. So I think there is a huge gulf. Mentioned about the fact that Heidenheim, they won the league, but they only won the league because, as Alex mentioned, they scored two injury time goals in 11 minutes of injury time. Other than that they’d be in the playoffs. So arguably don’t necessarily deserve to be here.

I say, having said that, Darmstadt were minus 300 in the first round of the German Cup and lost three nil. So again, I see really, really struggle for those two. Bochum, they finished in the bottom two based on expected points last season. So I think they could be in the conversation this. One team I wouldn’t have there at all is Stuttgart plus 225. They’re going to be absolutely fine this season. They underachieved by 14 expected points. They signed a Guirassy on a permanent deal. They had them on loan. He’s got 11 and 22. And they’ve also got Alexander Newbell on loan from Bayern in goal.

So I think both ends of the pitch, they’re going to be absolutely fine, Stuttgart. And if their match odds are going to be based on the relegation, so they’re here there four favorites to go down, I’m going to be very happy backing Stuttgart on a weekly basis. You mentioned that a quarter handicap, if they’re at home, for example, and they’re outsiders, be very happy to take them as outsiders.

I think Augsburg, I think, they’ll be okay. I think we all know with Augsburg they’ll lose like five matches in a row and then they’ll be beat Dortmund. That’s what they do. I quite like their business as well. They signed Mergim Berisha on a permanent deal from Fenerbache. They also got Okugawa from Bielefeld on free transfer, who a couple of seasons ago for Bielefeld was scoring goals in the Bundesliga. So I think they’ll be okay. So I think it’s two from the top three. And again, I think the prices reflect that as well. So not a bet for me here.

Flash:

The one that I’d want to be taking on here, Alex, is Kern. Can’t get a point away from home, and if they don’t get ahead early at home, then they will struggle at plus 500. But listen, I’m not reinventing the wheel. You give me plus 100 for a newcomer and with the way that Bundesliga is shaped up. I mean, Bochum, they rolled their sleeves up and now they’re battle hardened as well. It’s the top two. See you later. A trap door from day one.

Alex Campean:

It’s true what you said about Kern, they have to be very careful at least in the opening stages of the Bundesliga. But one team to watch, a long shot let’s say, very small beer money if you want, because we are in Bundesliga-

Flash:

Beer money and small don’t come into the equation with you. You spend more on beer than most of us spend on a weekly shop.

Alex Campean:

And Octoberfest is just around the corner.

Flash:

Oh my god, it’s become a banker fest. Two units on this one. Who is it?

Alex Campean:

A long shot, be careful what I’m saying right now, Borussia Monchengladbach at 3,300.

Flash:

Gladbach. Is your man not front for them? Has he left yet?

Alex Campean:

Look, look, Marcus Thuram, bye-bye. Ramy Benesbaini, Jonas Hofmann, Lars Stindl. I think that this is the spine of the team.

Flash:

There’s also a weakness though, Alex, because they couldn’t give an absolute damn so many times during the season. Their attitude absolutely stunk and it was almost like they want it away. Now they’ve gone, have they got rid of the illness in that club?

Alex Campean:

No, they didn’t get rid of Alassane Plea. I think that was the illness last year scoring just two goals in 29 matches for a striker. 30 years old they kept him there. They said, “Okay, we’re taking out Marcus Thuram. We’re selling him to Inter. But we are keeping Alassane Plea with just two goals.” 30 year old striker and we will hope that he will score goals. And they brought players from [inaudible], from [foreign language], from Sint-Trudense, from, I don’t know, leagues on loan, Macmillan Volberg.

So this is what the transfer window looks for Gladbach, and again small stake at 3,300, small, very small. It’s very hard to bet on the relegation battle in a Bundesliga, because most of the time the newcomers, one of them will definitely go down, right? And we’re talking about two automatic spots for relegation because the third one they will have to play a playoff with a team from Zwei Bundesliga. So it’s not like all the other leagues that we’re talking about. More spots for getting relegated and better odds, right? But like you said, Darmstadt plus 100. I still think also Heidenheim… I don’t know. I watched that game against Regensburg, if I don’t remember, correct. If I remember correct, the last match of the season when they got automatically promoted, I didn’t like them at all. Their level is not here. And like Stinch said, the transfer window for both Darmstadt and Heidenheim were atrocious. And so far they don’t say nothing.

Flash:

Well, remember week one show is at 10:00 eastern on Friday. It will be Alex and it will be Pavlos. So it’ll be really interesting to see what sort of odds we do get on the two favorites to go down. So let’s have a little look to be relegated on the official picks. Stinch has left it alone, but for me and Alex, or for Alex and I is the correct English, it’s Darmstadt plus 100, but I wouldn’t go… If you can parlay the pair of them, then you’re going to get like plus 380. So for me I would definitely be on 280. I’d be interested in the plus 100 and the minus 110.

Now then if we’re going to be looking at the Golden Boot because that’s the goals. And to be added to this will be Harry Kane, which then means that these numbers are going to be inflated because Harry Kane will come in here around minus 150. There might be a little bit of minus 140, there might be minus 200. So Harry Kane will come into this group. Then all of the others like, I don’t know, we’re going to have a look at Muani at plus 700. I think he goes to plus 1200. But Sebastian Haller, Alex, I think he’s got a real opportunity. Just wait for Harry Kane to be added and Sebastian Haller will be the top scorer as long as he stays fit.

Alex Campean:

I think that Kane should be the player with the most goals this season, but there is no volume on him, he will be at minus money, I don’t know, minus 120, minus 110 for a Golden Boot winner in Bundesliga. Of course, that we’re talking about Bayern Munich, they will score at least 85 to 90 goals this season. Of course, they will destroy teams like Darmstadt and Heidenheim putting seven or eight behind them. Of course, that Hurricane will score a ton of goals, but let’s not remember that there are many, many players in that Bayern squad that should find the back of the net in great numbers. Serge Gnabry, Kingsley Coman, Leroy Sane, Eric Choupo-Moting when he comes for gain. Thomas Mueller also probably his last season with the team, or Jamal Musiala. A lot of players from the midfield and up, everyone can score, even the defenders can score at Bayern.

On the other side, we have a newcomer here, a new transfer, an amazing transfer in my opinion, Lois Openda from Liguen. He scored 21 goals in 38 Liguen games last year. And he will definitely start upfront. In my opinion he has a great pace. He has a great shot from outside the box. He’ll probably partner with Sesko from RB Salzburg who just arrived this summer. Simmons is also there. He will offer a lot of balls for Openda. He’s a great finisher. I think that the value better plus 1200 here is with Lois Openda. You are making a great point with who you said, the Sebastian Haller. But look at this list and see, because we were talking about Harry Kane, how many players from Bayern we have, right? We already have Eric Choupo-Motting-

Flash:

Good point. Good point. And I’m going to speak to Stinch about it in a minute. Because Harry Kane, remember he’s been at Spurs, this year he’s going to be expected to do League and Champions League. So I think that Choupo-Motting could well play more, not more, but a bigger part in actually the domestic. He’s not getting any younger, Harry Kane. And then there’s a question mark whether Harry Kane is going to suit German football. Stinch?

Mark Stinchcombe:

I think this is quite a poor set of players in terms of competing against the figure you need to win this. When you consider last season it was only 16 goals that took the Golden Boot, and you look at the previous seasons it was 35, 41, 34 with Lewandowski and Haaland. I think these set of players are quite far back on that quality and consistency. It was Nkuku and Nicholas Fullkrug that were joint top scorers last season. And then Nkuku was injured for a part of that as well. It’s definitely worth remembering that. So there’s not enough consistency across these players, goals would be shared around.

So, I mean if you can get minus 120 on Harry Kane, I think that, in my opinion, that’s just minus 120 that he stays fit or he plays enough minutes. You look at the last time Lewandowski was in the Bundesliga, his final season, Lewandowski was minus 150. And as Alex mentioned, Bayern are going to be scoring 85, 90, 95 goals. Harry Kane only probably needs to score 20, 22, 23 maybe to win this. And as I say, if he’s on penalties, which I imagine he will be, I think there’s a great expectancy of him scoring sort of 27, 28 goals.

So I think essentially this is almost like… If you bet Harry Kane to win this, it’s almost like you’ll getting the price that you would be on Bayern to win the league. Because if Harry Kane top scores, I don’t see Bayern not winning the league. So we know how short a price Bayern are to win the league, and I think you could almost put Harry Kane in a parlay if you like as your sort of Bundesliga best bet alongside anything else that you wanted to back around Europe.

Flash:

I wrote out a parlay. Alex, I wrote out Darmstadt, Kane, and Leverkusen. But listen, I’m going to have to wait until Kane’s added, because if Muani goes to plus 1200, and this goes back to Fullkrug last year of having a full season, and making sure that you are the focal point of all your team’s attacks, I see Muani being in the top three. So if he’s at double figures, I see him scoring goals.

Mark Stinchcombe:

But it was Kamada as well who was obviously the guy that was helping provide those chances. So I think maybe got a factor in Frankfurt poor business. And I think there’s also a chance Muani could leave before the end of the window, which is something to be aware of.

Flash:

Yeah, I agree with that.

Alex Campean:

It’s weird how it all ended last year with a top scorer being with 16 goals both Fullkrug and Conco. I don’t think that Fullkrug is the type of player who will score in two seasons, in a row, more than 16, 17 goals. And I really think that the winner of the Golden Boot will surpass the 20 goal mark this season. So I wouldn’t add Fullkrug. Yes, will probably play him as anytime goalscorer in many games, but at plus 600, I don’t think that he’s able to do that. And given the team he’s playing for, right? If we’re talking about the top teams, the teams that are scoring the most goals, we’re talking about value in Donyell Malen, maybe, like you said in Sebastian Haller at plus 500 and someone from RB Leipzig. And I only see the RB Leipzig value in Lois Openda plus 1200.

Flash:

Well, let’s have a little look at the official picks of the Golden Boot. Remember the Q&A coming up. I will read some of them that have been typed in already. But it’s Openda at plus 1200. It says Muani at plus 700, but once Kane’s added, I expect that to go to plus 1200. And Stinch, he basically just thinks Harry Kane at anything around plus 120 plus, sorry minus 120, minus 140. Even put him with Darmstadt or anything else, maybe, Leverkusen to be top four in any parlay, you’re going to get really, really good value.

So you think about what questions you want to ask the two boys. And I’ll remind you and ask you to subscribe to this new season 2023/24. And such, it was a really good year last year. We smashed the futures. We got really, really good numbers throughout the season. We’d like you to subscribe and also ring the bell, which means we’ll notify you, you’ll never miss any content again. And if you’d like your odds and props, and they’ve been increased and they’ve been bettered, because now we have the no point 25 as well, which means if it’s a draw, you win half bet. So you even get rewarded for potentially a losing bet. So it’s betustv.com/odds. Now is the time for that Q&A. Ash is gone, “You think Hamburg have a promotion shot this season? I want to see them back in the top flight.” I just added that back there. Stinch, Hamburg?

Mark Stinchcombe:

I mean Hamburg should have been back in the Bundesliga. If it wasn’t last season, should have been the season before. And this season arguably they’ve got the best ever squad they’ve ever had at second Bundesliga level. So it’s just a case of we know they have a capability of imploding. If they don’t implode then I think they should be winning the league, let alone being promoted in the second Bundesliga.

Alex Campean:

I think that despite the Bundesliga is a very, very tough place to get promoted. Hamburg are one of the top teams. But imagine that they were kept to a 2-2 draw by Culserra who finished 12 last year already. So they already draw points. I would love to see them back absolutely. But I would love to see also a team like St. Pauli, if you ask me, in the top play league. A lot of teams deserve to be there. Hertha, maybe, but I don’t see them going back because they are very, very bad. And they started also on the wrong foot with two defeats in a row and no goal scored in the [inaudible]. So let’s wait. It’s a long process in the [inaudible].

Flash:

No team that went down the season before last actually springboard back up.

Alex Campean:

At the [inaudible].

Flash:

Exactly. Mitch says, “Is Thuram still in the league?” Alex?

Alex Campean:

Who? Thuram?

Flash:

Thuram, where did he go, Alex?

Alex Campean:

No, Inter.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Inter.

Flash:

Right. So Mitch, stop partying in Vegas all right, and get your head into your homework in Bundesliga. It was great to see you last week, mate. And there was no party, it was all business. Any other questions there? Don’t want to make sure, okay. If there is any more, then I will add them. But let’s have a little look at the best bets for the Bundesliga Future Show. Remember we’ve got the Serie A, one coming up. And there’s a newcomer on that Serie A Show as well with Mina.

So Alex has gone for Leipzig plus 250 for winner without Bayern. Mark Stinchcombe has gone for Leipzig plus 250. For me it’s Leverkusen at plus 900. Wouldn’t put anyone off the saver though on Dortmund at minus 120. Top four finish I think it just all points to Leverkusen around the minus 120. In fact, I don’t think minus 120 will last that long, because I think that’s the only viable value bet to be relegated. Darmstadt plus 100. You can have the other newcomers at minus 110. That’s for myself and for Alex.

Golden Boot is gone for Openda, from Leipzig plus 1200. For me it’s Muani, it says plus 700 there, which plus 700 is available at the moment. But I think that when Harry Kane gets added to that list, the odds on, it’d be like minus 140. Then Muani will be up plus 1200. And then I think that Haaland also will be around plus 7 or 800. So maybe you’re going to get really good value. I agree, Mitch, Haaland 20 plus goals. And if Haaland gets 20 plus goals with Kane obviously being Champions League and sharing his time with Choupo-Motting, because obviously Harry Kane is an unknown quantity in the Bundesliga, and also he’s no spring chicken.

Alex, we’ll see you on Friday. From everyone in the chat please thumbs up on the way out. Stinch, go and do what you’ve got to do. Head down. I know you’ll be keeping an eye on everything. We’ll see you… I’ll see you again next week though, won’t we for week two?

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yes.

Flash:

You’re not going on the holiday or nothing?

Mark Stinchcombe:

Not till September.

Flash:

I know I’ve got your dates and so does Pavlos. But on Friday at 10:00 Eastern, Week 1, the Bundesliga will be with Pavlos. He’ll be sitting where Alex is. Alex will be sitting where Stinch is, and I’ll be sitting where I always sit. You take care.

Alex Campean:

You love me though.

 

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