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Bundesliga Picks Matchday 16 | Bundesliga Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

 

Flash:

Welcome to the BetUS Soccer channel. I’m Flash and it’s Bundesliga show is finally back. It’s matched day 16. I mean, it’s nice of them to even turn up. I was going to start singing. The sun has got his hat on hip hip hooray. Honestly, it’s been so long I forgot what the Bundesliga even meant. Back in November was the last time that we saw my experts. But first of all, this is your home of soccer betting and America’s favorite sportsbook
. Combine them both means you need to subscribe and also ring the bell. Then we will notify you and you’ll never miss any content, whether it be Bundesliga, Premier League, Serie A, La Liga. But in two weeks, three weeks time Champions League and then we’re going to add the Europa League so you’ll see more of your favorite experts. We’ve got all sorts going on, it’s great to have them back.

But my two proper experts are the voice of world soccer. I’ve been promoted from European to world soccer in the voice, which is Kevin Hatchard and the man who cashes more 95th minute winners than anybody else in the world. And that’s at Alex Classic Tips. And if you are on social media, please follow at Bet US TV because that’s where you’ll get updated. Maybe some picks late on or they’ll give you some news because remember, Kev is actually at some of the games. He’s commentating on the games and Alex just doesn’t miss any games. He’s got so many screens that people knock on his door thinking he’s selling tellies. So just make sure that you follow the…

Alex :

Maybe tickets.

Flash:

Sorry.

Alex :

Maybe tickets to the game.

Flash:

Yeah, come in. As long as they’ve got a few beers, they’re more than welcome into Alex’s house. Don’t come empty handed because you’ll be turned away at the door. There’s also a link in the description, which means you can go over and join betus.com and there’s no geographical restrictions anymore. Or maybe a couple. I’ve said that before. Seven million countries, there might be three that are not taking BetUS at the moment. Well if you’re in one of them, just move. No problem at all. Anyway, no further ado because I’m really excited for this show and we’ve got an early kickoff and it’s probably one of the biggest games in Europe. Let’s go over to Kev. Kev, welcome back mate. I know we saw a lot of you in the World Cup, but this is our bread and butter. It’s great to have the Bundesliga back.

Kevin :

Yeah, it’s great to be back and I think a lot of people have wondered why the break was so long. I think the German football authorities thought Germany were going to get a bit further in the World Cup than they did, but also worth remembering that we’ve got a rare midweek set coming up. So actually by the end of next weekend we’re actually going to be three games further on. So we up to match day 18 and that’s just past the halfway point of the season. So actually by then Germany will be pretty much in line with the Premier League and the rest of the major leagues.

Flash:

Yeah, my graphics boys, they love me. No Bundesliga Friday. Oh by the way, Bundesliga show Monday, by the way, Bundesliga show next Friday. So listen, we’ll be watching all the games then making our selections on Sunday, then the boys have to do the graphics ready for a show on Monday. But let’s not wish our life away Alex, because obviously we’ve got today’s show to do and there’s a massive game before we go into the first game. Do you think Germany have got it right by having such a big break?

Alex :

I woke up in the morning like it was Christmas day. I couldn’t wait for the Bundesliga to restart. I think that it was even a bigger break than the summer break, this one in Bundesliga. This is why I’m very happy with the league back. I don’t know if it’s right or wrong, I know that they played some friendly matches but it’s not enough. Normally we see goals, a lot of goals in Germany, the most entertaining league in terms of goals in the top five per game. Averaging goals per game. This is why we are here for and we are very, very happy to have it back. And let’s see with starting with the bank today, [inaudible 00:03:59] versus Bayern.

Flash:

We are.

Alex :

[inaudible 00:04:02] versus Leverkusen. Let’s not forget a lot of other matches.

Flash:

They’re all absolute classics because I know you are going to see why when we have a little recap. I know that a lot of you are not the most savvy in the chat, but you are important to us. But I know that some of you can’t even remember what you had for breakfast yesterday. So here’s a recap of what the top seven looked like when we went off in November. That’s a record, that’s not a recap, but we will stay with that though. I’m more than happy because there’s your number one and two cappers right across the board. Kev’s with 14.1, a total 22.74 units of profit, which is great because we’re not even halfway through the Bundesliga season. So 22.74, we want to get that up to 30 and I’m sure between the three of us we will do that.

Okay, now let’s have the recap please of the top seven. Here we go. Look at that Freiburg sitting second with 30 points, only four points behind Bayern who we expect to just run away and win the league. Kev, we’re looking at maybe the top four going into the Champions League. Do we really think that Freiburg can do it?

Kevin :

I think they can, but the [inaudible 00:05:18].

Flash:

You think they will?

Kevin :

No, I don’t think they will. I think they’ll just miss out. I think you look at teams like Dortmund that would… I expect Dortmund to get their act together and don’t sleep on Wolfsburg either. Because I think Wolfsburg now that Niko Kovač has had a bit of time to get them to understand what he wants from them. They were showing some really consistent form going into the World Cup and actually I think the World Cup came at a bad time for them because they had genuine momentum.

I think because Freiburg are in the Europa League, I think they’ll be distracted by that to some extent. I think they’ve been a bit lucky with injury as well. Losing Kevin Schade is not a major blow because he wasn’t a regular first teamer. So what that’s done is its given Freiburg a lot of money, which is great for them because it means they can recruit and means they’ll be able to hang on to their top players for a bit longer. But I think Bayern will obviously stay in that top four, I think Leipzig will as well. I imagine Dortmund will be in that race. So then you probably looking at a scrap between Frankfurt, maybe Freiburg and probably Wolfsburg as well.

Flash:

Yeah and there might even be a team that’s in the bottom seven, Alex. Union are up against it. Freiburg up against it. Frankfurt up against it. I mean, maybe we go with Bayern, Leipzig but you’re Dortmund, they cannot afford any more slip-ups and they’ve had a massive boost during the close.

Alex :

Yeah, massive boost with Sébastien Haller obviously back in the team. Great recovery from him and we wish him all the best. I think that he’s the player to watch right now in this team. I think that Dortmund will finish in top four. The lack of consistency from the first half of the season. This is where you get it six in the table right now. I mean, you beat good teams, you pick points from Bayern but after that you lose. This is the problem with Dortmund, they can beat anyone but they can lose against anyone. So right now they must find the rhythm. They must find their balance and I think that this long break was very good for them to have all their players, almost all their players back from injuries. We have Moukoko back, we have, like we said Sébastien Haller and…

Flash:

Reyna will be fresh.

Alex :

Yes and they signed a very, very good player from Union Berlin. Julian Ryerson who is amongst the Bundesliga top 12 for crosses from open play. Very, very good player in my opinion. He can play something like Hakimi, he’s on the right side but he can play also on the opposite flank. So I like what they did in the summer because I’m used… After such a big break. Now the league is restarting but obviously we are in the second part of the season. I think that Dortmund will start good. I think that at home it’s very important to say that at home they are great, great side and they have the record right now. 18 matches the start of the year in terms of matches, first match of the year, 13 wins in 18 matches unbeaten right now. 13 wins from 18 and the rest, five obviously unbeaten. So I think that they will start well. Leipzig is very strong there. I think that top four will be Bayern, Leipzig, Dortmund and I think that there, it’ll be Frankfurt, Wolfsburg, Freiburg for the last place.

Flash:

But again I think there’s always one team that springs out of the pack and makes a late charge for it. And if we have a little look at the bottom seven then there may well be one name that couldn’t do that because it’s Leverkusen… Can you believe 18 points, but they’re only around… What we got? So we got around… We’ve got to get to 26, 27 points of what are they, eight or nine? It’s just three of four wins. They’ve got to make a run for it. Kev, these bottom seven teams, here’s the odds to get relegated, we must make sure that people understand that it is the bottom two go automatically through the trap door and then the third from bottom plays in a playoff against Bundesliga two runners-up I believe.

Kevin :

Yeah, that’s right. So automatic relegation for the bottom two and then a playoff for the third bottom team against the team that finishes third in Bundesliga two. When I look at those odds, they’re quite interesting because I don’t personally accept the gap in odds between Hertha and Stuttgart. I know that Stuttgart has hired Bruno Labbadia. I know that he’s a renowned relegation firefighter, but I worry about the quality in that squad. I worry about how thin it is. I wonder if they might lose a key player in this window as well.

So I don’t think they’re that much better than Hertha truth be told. Augsburg are interesting. They’re doing some interesting transfers this month, but I do expect them to be in that relegation battle towards the end. Schalke have a good coach in Thomas Reis but he’s playing catch up. I think if he’d been in charge from the start of the season, they’d have a much healthier position. And Bochum I’m not hugely convinced about them, obviously they’ve had a change of coach and that’s yielded a couple of home wins. But again, I think in terms of the quality they have, I think they’re going to really struggle. I think they do actually have the worst squad in the division.

Flash:

Yeah and this is the one league Alex, where I think that you could get sucked in and you could be onto a loser because really all the value here is… Unless you stick Bochum in a parlay, I wouldn’t… If I was finishing third in the second division of Bundesliga, I wouldn’t want to play any of these teams. So I’m thinking even if one of these teams finishes third, they’re not going to go down. They are going to survive. A bit like Werder Bremen did a good few years ago. Stuttgart plus 450. I must agree. I think that they could be struggling.

Alex :

Yeah, Stuttgart should struggle. Augsburg also. Kev mentioned that they had some transfers, four of them in total from [inaudible 00:11:51], from Genoa, a player on loan and two young players from the Croatian league. They will need time to adapt. I don’t think that will happen in time for them to escape this relegation battle. They are there just two points above Bochum that… I don’t know, I have a feeling that Bochum might save themselves. I wish they don’t because I said from the start of the league that they are the team to fade, right?

But lately, before the World Cup break, couple of good results at home, strong at home lately. One away win the last one. So this is why you see them at 13 points because of their last five or six matches. But Schalke are dreadful, I think that their place tells you exactly what to happen… What to expect from Schalke right now minus 500 is not playable, of course don’t bet it. It’s a big mistake.

But I think that Stuttgart and Augsburg, I don’t see the other ones… Hertha, I think that they will save themselves. There is Stuttgart, Augsburg, Bochum fighting for survival. One of them will… The other one will play. I don’t know if Kev remembers what is the record in this playoffs in the last, I don’t know, 10 years between the team from Bundesliga that is playing a playoff team in the playoffs to get relegated with the team from [inaudible 00:13:32].

Kevin :

Yeah, there aren’t many. It’s very, very few. [inaudible 00:13:36] the biggest example of that in the last few years. They were able to edge out Stuttgart over two legs. Hamburger got themselves into a really good position against Hertha and blew it in the second leg. So generally the top level team stays up but it doesn’t always happen. And I look at… I know I’ve mentioned them already, but I look at Stuttgart. Now, Bruno Labbadia has guided Wolfsburg through that relegation playoff before. However, there’s a lot of kids in that Stuttgart squad and I do wonder if they were to slip into that relegation playoff, how could they cope with that pressure and with the enormity of what could happen to the club. So I still think there’s a lot going on in the background at Stuttgart as well.

Flash:

Yeah, I think it’s one of those that we have to revisit it when we know exactly who looks like going to be finishing third in the lower league. Anyway, listen, that’s all done. I’ve brought you up to speed. We have given our opinions so let’s crack on with the games and the first game. Wow, it doesn’t get much bigger unless you go with maybe Bayern and Dortmund because our first game, and I remember the… It’s Leipzig plus 290 hosting Bayern at minus 125, which might be good for a lot of people. The draw is at plus 325, the under over set of three with the over being at minus 120. Bayern, they’re expected to score twice because over one and a half is at minus 160. Kev, I’m going to start with you. Most of these games I’m going to favor the home side because the partners and crowd, it’d be like the first game of the season they’ve been starved and now I think that the home crowd, nevermind the home teams, the home crowds will definitely be up for it.

Kevin :

Well I certainly don’t think that Bayern price is that attractive, truth be told, minus 125. I know normally you’d look at a Bayern game and think it would be, and that’s not to say I don’t think Bayern are going to win, I just don’t think it’s a particularly attractive price. I think if you look at [inaudible 00:15:34], if you look at… Sorry Leipzig record under Marco Rose, they’ve won all eight of their home games in all competitions. That includes a win over Real Madrid in the Champions League. They’ve scored at least twice in all of those games. So I actually think the root here is a goals base bet to be honest because you’re expecting Leipzig to contribute.

Bayern has scored an outrageous number of goals in all competitions. And so I can see this being a goal fest. You look at what happened when these two played each other in Leipzig in the Super Cup, Bayern ended up winning 5-3. Now of course that’s effectively a pre-season game so you can’t take too much from that but Bayern do tend to come alive in these games in terms of strutting their stuff, wanting to impress. And I think all the quality here is in attacking areas. Obviously you’ve got guys like Joško Gvardiol who had a very, very good World Cup, he’ll be at the back for Leipzig. But I think in general these two teams are better when they play on the front foot.

Flash:

Yeah, no and [inaudible 00:16:35] neither they’re telling me which means you’ve got no anytime goal scorer on the Leipzig side of things. But Alex I’m thinking Leipzig may well just lock up and the one thing we can say about them recently is that they’ve been more organized and have been more competitive in the defensive areas. I’m wondering if they’re going to try and frustrate Bayern and the three goals everyone’s expecting it to go over because these two both have weapons but I’m wondering if Leipzig’s best hope here is to keep it tight.

Alex :

I don’t think that they can keep it tight. I think that the entire round of fixtures in Bundesliga, I think that with a small stake you could go all of them, parlay them together over 2.5 goals. I think that this will be the trend in the first 1, 2, 3 rounds after this restart. I think it’ll be a high scoring game. Of course they’re missing Nkunku, I think that this is the most important player and it will remain the most important player this season. Probably he will leave at the end of the season. Who knows? We will see. Kev talked about their brilliant home record, let’s not forget it in most of those wins at home Nkunku scored. So he’s a very important part of this Leipzig puzzle. Of course that also on the other side we have Mané out, Neuer but right now we have Yann Sommer, another amazing goalkeeper from Bundesliga, transferred from Gladbach and I’m probably expecting him to play today, to debut today.

But when you look at bench you will see the difference between the two sides. I mean, Leipzig have a great starting 11. I always like to bet on them and to back them but I think that they missing their number one keeper Gulácsi and their most important player Nkunku. This is why Bayern are priced at minus 125. But you can go with the combo, you don’t have to go definitely with Bayern to win this all, to go with the money line here you can combine at Bet US, Bayern win and over 2.5 goals.

Flash:

You think Bayern win? You really do believe that Bayern will win this game?

Alex :

I do believe. I’m going with the value here and I think that Bayern are the better team and I think that the weapons to win this game. I think that if you look player by player, if you look at the entire squad, if you look that they should all be fresh and fit, I think that there is no way Bayern are not to go with at least one point from this trip. But I still think that they will win this.

Flash:

Yeah, I think the draw plus 325 is probably the way to go early on and then obviously have a little look [inaudible 00:19:35] betting. If you do fancy it’s the draw then remember at Bet US you can have the draw after 75 minutes because Bayern have got weapons to come off the bench, could well kill you. This could be 1-1 with 20 minutes to go and then 3-1, 3-2. The only problem I have about vg is how they going to have to pace on the break when they win? So in transition will they be able to hurt Bayern because the teams that have hurt Bayern, when Bayern have over committed and then Leipzig can spring them and Nkunku is your perfect player for that and he will not be there. Let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks. Remember this is on now like five hours, not even that, maybe four hours time. So make sure that you are ready anytime.

Musiala anytime scorer, plus 240, from Kev is an official pick. And Bayern in over two and a half at plus 120. Musiala absolute Rolls-Royce, whether you are a Bayern fan or not, you are definitely cheering him on because he is one of the young starlets of world football and we can hope that he stays injury free and continues to entertain. So good luck to Musiala, plus 240. I might just join you in that Kev just because he just always getting near and around the box.

Okay, let’s move on to game number two. It’s all about the home side but at minus 270, Frankfurt host Schalke. And Schalke are at plus 675. The draw is at plus 430. Over or under starting at three again with the over three at minus 120. If you’re brave and it’s under three at plus 100. Alex, Schalke have got to start getting something but again it’s not easy to go to Frankfurt but I’m not… Frankfurt are a team that you can definitely trust.

Alex :

They had a slow start if you remember and they’ll probably have another slow restart. I think that the break came at the right time for Schalke. I think that they needed this break. If you look at their away record of this season, zero wins, two draws, five defeats, four goals scored, 13 conceded. That tells you enough about their attacking firepower, their squad issues, their quality, everything goes together. It looks like Frankfurt should win this game. But will you risk it at minus 270? Of course you wouldn’t. Would you give them a minus 1.5? It’s risky because it’s the first match from the restart of the season. Normally after five, six games, yes I would definitely give Frankfurt a minus 1.5 there. But right now this is the only reason that I can’t back Frankfurt here or not even thinking about Schalke.

Flash:

Yeah, I mean Kev, we’re looking at Frankfurt a minus 270. That’s never going to be for me, especially when the win is more important than the performance and obviously going for goals, goals, goals and Schalke, their season starts now.

Kevin :

Yeah absolutely and they’ve got Thomas Reis in charge and even though he had a poor away record as Bochum boss, what he did show is he can set a team up and you don’t quite know how Frankfurt are going to be going into this second part of the season. I think they’ve done brilliantly so far. I’ve put them up as a top six team in the futures show. I’ve seen nothing to disabuse me in that notion. I think they will finish in the top six. Obviously they managed to qualify for the last 16 of the Champions League so that was very impressive. So far so good. But I do think Schalke can dig in and maybe throw a spanner in the works and there’s nothing there in the numbers for me to really get that excited about truth be told because like Alex says, do you go minus one and a half? You’re only getting an evens for that. That’s not mega exciting, backing them at minus 270 to win is a no-no. I wouldn’t even put that in a parlay. So no it’s not one for me.

Alex :

Looking as a team… I’m sorry.

Flash:

Alex. No, no, no please.

Alex :

Looking at the starting 11 for a… Starting lineup for a bit here, Schalke is full of injuries, starters like four of them, doubtful players like four of them, they have also problems in that area and when you see from the middle and up… When you see Frankfurt from the middle and up with Kamada. So now Lindstrøm, Götze and most importantly Kolo Muani, that he was impressive when he played, how much he played for France, the little time that he played for France at the World Cup, he was impressive in continuing his brilliant run of form that made him one of the players on everyone’s mouth right now. Mostly from the Premier League teams that everyone wants him this summer. I think that you can go with Frankfurt but again I think that is the one to watch and maybe in play, maybe wait for the second round to see how Frankfurt will play and we will take it from there.

Flash:

Okay, maybe Schalke not to score at plus 120 if it is the case where they’ve got all the injuries. Frankfurt definitely have got the better players. It’s whether they hit the ground running for me. It’s a very risky but I’m not really going to be going against many home teams in this round of fixtures just because I think the party atmosphere, it’s almost going to be like the first game of the season.

Let’s have a look at the official picks here because it is a little bit tricky and it might be one of those after the event that it was so obvious, Frankfurt was going to win 3-0, 3-1. Frankfurt halftime, full-time plus 105. Yep, I’m happy to say that the home side comes out, maybe even Frankfurt to be leading at halftime job done because obviously Schalke have got nothing to lose in any of the games anymore. They’ve got to just throw caution to the wind and with VAR and everything else going on they could come and stiff you. So plus 105 for Frankfurt to be leading halftime, full-time.

Let’s go on to game number three. I thought the numbers were wrong here, I had to check them. Union at plus 120 against Hoffenheim at plus 235. The under over is set at two and a half, which I thought was wrong straight away. And then I see the favorite is actually on the unders. I cannot believe that this is on the unders. The draw is at plus 240. Hoffenheim score goals home and away and Union are strong and they will offer positives in both forward-thinking, open play and set pieces. So Kev, I expect this to be minimum 2-1 but I think Hoffenheim could get something out of the game as well. So for me I just see the over two half at minus 105 and not care who wins.

Kevin :

Yeah, it’s an interesting one this game. I do think Union is stronger and I think they had their wobble towards the end of the year, that was understandable. They were out on their feet and I think they really needed the World Cup break. I think the World Cup break came at the wrong time for some teams but not for Union. They needed it very much. Hoffenheim, again it probably came at a good time for them because they were showing really, really poor form. They started the season brilliantly under André Breitenreiter but they’ve just lost their way in the last few games. And if you look at their away form actually it’s pretty poor. They’ve only won a couple of away games this season. If you go back further for the last couple of seasons it’s been bad. So I think that Union price, when I looked at it was about plus 110, it’s come out a little bit since then, it’s a bit more attractive.

I think if I was going to go for something in this game, that’s probably the way I’d go actually, I’d probably go plus 120. Union have lost Julian Ryerson and that’s a blow. He’s a low key player, he’s not an amazing fullback but he’s a good fullback and he understood what Urs Fischer wanted, the coach, and he has that ability to play left back and right back and play those wingback roles. So I do think that’s a blow for them. But Hoffenheim have lost Georginio Rutter, he’s going to Leeds and that just robs them of a bit of unpredictability and attacks. So we don’t know how Kasper Dolberg’s going to do. He was a bit disastrous at Sevilla. It didn’t really work out for him there, hasn’t really found a home I think since leaving Ajax. So there’s a few question marks for this game.

Flash:

Yeah, I mean I think that if Union win they’re going to need to score twice. I think Hoffenheim definitely score. I’ve got this down as being 2-1. I wouldn’t put you off Union. I love Union at home at plus 120 especially after a break, refreshed. Alex, Union to score twice is plus 115. Also, Union to score on… Both teams to score over two and a half is going to be about plus 125, plus 130. I just don’t see clean sheets here.

Alex :

Union unbeaten at home this season, five wins, two draws, but I wouldn’t put you off of a draw here at plus 240 to be honest. I think Hoffenheim are dreadful on the road. Dreadful, underperforming, let’s put it this way. But I think that they can take out something from this game. It’s the first game after restart, new faces inside the team. Also on the other side, Union lost one of their players. They still have one of the most organized team squads in the league and they’re playing at home. This is why it is better to stay away from this type of games. Still, I think that the value is on the draw. I don’t know. I will have a small stake on the draw.

Flash:

Do you think like a 2-2 draw?

Alex :

Yeah a draw with goals. Absolutely.

Flash:

Because you know the way Hoffenheim play, they play the same home and away and the reason they’re away performances have been so poor is because they have no discipline.

Alex :

Don’t know how to defend.

Flash:

Something like 4-2-4 they play or they play like a 4-1-1.

Alex :

They go in no matter what. They have one plan.

Flash:

Yeah and they leave themselves isolated.

Alex :

Yeah.

Flash:

I mean, listen I’ve just gone with this straight over two and a half goals. I’m just going to make sure that that is what I’ve gone for. No, in fact I’ve been greedy. Have a look at this for official picks. Won’t put anyone off Union by the way. I think they’re very, very strong. Both teams to score at over two and a half is at plus 120. So I turned that minus 105 into plus 120 just because I think Hoffenheim score, but I do like Union but I’m not going with the first game back.

Alex :

Plus 150 right now. You can do it plus 150 right now, it changed.

Flash:

What? Both teams score over two and a half with Bet US is plus 150? Wow. That’s good then. I like that. My graphics boys, they’ll change that for me. Okay, let’s move on to game number four because we’re just seeing goals now. Wow, two sides in the top seven where we spoke about this at the top of the show and it’s Wolfsburg at plus 150, Freiburg at plus 180. These two nobody’s [inaudible 00:30:43]. The draw is at plus 245. Over two and a half goals at minus 110. Wolfsburg to score twice is at plus 140, Kev.

Kevin :

Yeah that’s the one that stands out to me because we had a bit of success before the winter break, backing Wolfsburg to score a couple of times in games and they did that on a regular basis. And I think now that Niko Kovač has sorted out the basis of the side, the structure of the side, now we’re seeing the quality that they have going forwards and you think of the players they have, the likes of Lukas Nmecha. Felix Nmecha actually started to play really well. Jonas Wind is back from injury. Patrick Wimmer, I like very much. He’s unpredictable in wide areas. Kamiński I think is a good winger as well. So there’s genuine quality there going forward. I think they’ve got a bit of oomph from the wide areas as well.i like Ridle Baku when he gets forward from right back and helps to set up that team.

So you couple that with the fact that Freiburg are away from home, pretty leaky truth be told. You look at the last 10 Bundesliga away games, they’ve conceded at least twice in six of those. Freiburg were going really, really well going into the World Cup break. How has that affected them? They’ve got [inaudible 00:31:57] who obviously were heavily involved for Japan at the World Cup. So we’ll see what kind of shape they in coming back. So I wouldn’t want to go for a particular results but I think if we just back goals on the Wolfsburg side of things, we’ll be okay.

Flash:

Yeah, but I also think to myself Kev, that if Wolfsburg scored twice they’re not going to get beat. So almost like Wolfsburg draw no bet at minus 120 could well be a safe way to play. I don’t see Freiburg going there and winning and that’s strange when you’re talking about a side who is second in the league, Alex.

Alex :

Yeah they are, but their latest performance on the road is saying exactly what Kev said about them. They are leaky, they’re allowing many goals and on the other side, Wolfsburg scored at least twice in the last five home games no matter if they won, lost or they won only one point from their respective matches. But I think that anything can happen in this one. So I think that Kev is right on point with that plus 140 for Wolfsburg over 1.5 goals. But we might even see a 2-2 draw. I mean, everyone can score, everyone can concede here. Two great sides. I think that Wolfsburg are favorites because they’re playing at home, normally on the road I think that the prices would be totally different. Of course they would be…

Flash:

Well Alex plus 150 for a home side is like one of those where… Well they may win but you’re going to be well rewarded for it.

Alex :

True. Also, an Alex classic is a good bet here both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at plus 120. So I think that there is plenty of value in this match.

Flash:

Kev, fancy Freiburg score over two and a half goals at minus 110?

Kevin :

Yeah, I think that could happen. Freiburg have really packed a punch this season. Michael Gregoritsch has had a great campaign. It was interesting actually, I was looking through Kicker’s lists that they do. What they do is they group players in different positions in world class, international class or just kind of regular players. It was interesting they put Gregoritsch in the international class in terms of forwards in the Bundesliga. And actually you look at his campaign, he’d struggled to argue against that and he was scoring goals at Augsburg but the time he left as well. So I can absolutely see them scoring and contributing. I think overs is a good bet at minus 110 but I just looked at that plus 140 and that’s what stood out to me.

Flash:

No, no, I may well follow you in there to be honest but I do like the over two and a half as well at minus 110. Okay, let’s have a look at the official picks. Kev’s found a great value there. Wolfsburg’s team total over plus 140 which means that there’s no need for us to get involved. We’re just going to cheer on Kev but remember to follow Bet US TV on social media so that if there is any added and probably I will be adding here because I do like the fact that there’s going to be goals. It’s just how I find the right value.

Let’s move on to game number five of six because the old romantic in me is getting involved here. Dortmund at minus 325 against Augsburg plus 775. We talk about party atmospheres, this will be rampant. The draw is at plus 500. You got to look at Dortmund, how many they think they’re going to score? To score three is at minus 110. Over three and a half is at plus 100. Well if they’re going to get over three and a half then Dortmund are going to score three times, Alex. So I’d rather go over two and half just at minus 110 or I go to an anytime goalscorer and that’s where the romance lies for me.

Alex :

And even in another part you’ll see my tip later on which has a great value plus 100 for a halftime, full-time. I think that Dortmund will enter this match all guns blazing. I think that they waited for this moment for the restart of the league. Many players back from injuries, rocking atmosphere there at Signal Iduna Park, the black and yellow wall there. So the atmosphere will be amazing. I think that Dortmund are by far the better side. Augsburg injury issues… Not only that I think that they are one of the worst attacking teams in the league but they also have squad issues. I think that Dortmund should score at least three goals on their own but the prices at minus 110 is a little bit too low. I think that this is a one-sided game. There is nothing to tell me that Augsburg has a chance in this one.

Flash:

Augsburg not to score, Alex? Augsburg not to score plus 130. Dortmund win to nil plus 150.

Alex :

In Germany, I hate the win to nil. This is the worst. In Germany, you cannot go to win to nil. This is the worst thing but I think that…

Flash:

You can in this game.

Alex :

No, thank you.

Flash:

And that’s the other thing with Dortmund, they’ve got everyone back fit but you still don’t trust them to keep a clean sheet against one of the worst attacking sides in Bundesliga.

Alex :

Yeah. Even though recently I don’t know, they showed me that they’re better at the back than last season for example when they were conceding against every single team in Bundesliga. I can’t trust Dortmund to keep clean sheets. I even can’t trust Bayern to keep clean sheets this season.

Flash:

I do get it.

Alex :

I think that Dortmund will solve this match by halftime. They’ll score twice in the first half, all the value is on Dortmund, not to destroy necessarily Augsburg but I see a 3-1 type of game. 3-0, 3-1 type of game.

Flash:

Kev, you think Dortmund turn up, put on a show? We expect Haller to start?

Kevin :

Well he has played against Basel. I’d be surprised if he starts. I imagine Moukoko would probably start but at least Haller is ready. But I would be a little surprised if he starts to be honest. This just felt a little bit like a trap to me. Look, Dortmund should win the game, probably will win the game. But actually if you look at Augsburg this season, they’ve tended to raise their game against some of the big hitters. They beat Bayern, they went to Leverkusen and played ever so well and won that game. So they are capable against some of the better teams in the division. So I think Enrico Maaßen did a really, really good job with quite limited resources to be honest. So look, Dortmund should win it, absolutely, and should win it well, but at the prices it’s not one for me.

Flash:

Yeah I mean, I’ve actually gone with the romance of Haller to score at anytime around the plus 100 which… And it was the price that made me think that he was probably going to start. It is voided if he does not start. But this is another one of those times when you need to follow Bet US on social media because once I see the lineups I’m… Dortmund maybe scoring three or four. I think there is an anytime scorer in this game for me to be honest. But obviously we have to wait and see who is actually starting.

Alex :

The problem with Augsburg is that they couldn’t find a decent replacement for Gregoritsch, right? So their top scorer left. Now they are without someone who will say wow, a great replacement. They don’t have an identity. They are in a big crisis to find their identity. I think that they will struggle, like Kev said at the beginning of the show to avoid relegation. They will fight till the end. Yes they signed some players but I don’t know, I always think that the winter transfer window, the January transfer window is not for bringing too many players inside your team and this is exactly what they did. If you need, you bring one because you need it, you need him, you need a scorer, you need a midfielder, whatever. But don’t bring like four or five players.

Kevin :

But I think it’s to do with changing the style. I think Maaßen got a very clear idea of what he wants to do. I think the club are very much behind him.

Alex :

True but will he have time to change and adapt his system for the new players?

Kevin :

I think they see it as a long-term process. I think bringing him in the first place was a departure from what they’ve done before. And I think as well, I mean I talked about the way they played against top teams. They went to Union and drew 2-2, scored a couple of… Florian Niederlechner scored a brilliant goal in that game. Look, if it goes to form, of course Dortmund should win it and they should win it well. I do think Augsburg are changing under Maaßen and I think there is a plan. I think he’s stamping his authority on what they want to do, whether it will work or not, we’ll see. But I think the reason they’ve made several signings is to try and change to what he wants.

Flash:

And whatever happens when Augsburg go home or away, they do compete even if they don’t pick up the right results. And Mitch makes a great point, minus one cards. So obviously if Augsburg have two cards more than Dortmund, it’s at minus 105. And I see them trying to get rattled into Dortmund very, very early on because you can’t allow Dortmund and the type of players that they’ve got time and space on the ball. So I expect them to get rattled into very early on. I think Mitch makes a great point. Thanks Mitch, I know there’s a reason why you are in the chat.

Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks because I think this is a great game and I think this is one of those especially live in play as well because we could see a five star performance from the home side. Hopefully a bit of romance as well with Haller scoring. I’ve gone with Haller anytime goalscorer plus 100 but that will be void if he does not start. But I may change it and obviously Jude Bellingham or Reyner and there’s a whole host of players who possibly could get on the score sheet if not more than one. Dortmund halftime, full-time plus 100. From the Dortmund fan, that has to be said, so that if you’re new Alex is a Dortmund fan although it does not let that get in the way. But Dortmund halftime, full-time plus 100. You muted Alex.

Alex :

I said no, no never.

Flash:

No never. Okay, let’s move on to the final game because I think this is the best game of the whole weekend for me in the Bundesliga. It’s Gladbach at plus 165, the books keep disrespecting Gladbach at home. I don’t understand why. Leverkusen are favorites at plus 135. I don’t understand why neither. The draw is at plus 305. The styles of play Alex, tell me that Gladbach are stronger than Leverkusen. Leverkusen are disjointed. They win games by… They did start to sort of look up a little bit but in this matchup Gladbach score first, they go on to win comfortably. I like Gladbach to score twice in this game. I think that Gladbach win the game at plus 165. Can you give me any sort of confidence from a Leverkusen point of view?

Alex :

Yeah, I think that Xabi Alonso also needed some time to create a style, to make a team, to try to solve the problems in this Leverkusen squad. I still think that Leverkusen is one of the most entertaining teams in Bundesliga. I think that they are great all over the pitch. They have Florian Wirtz back which is absolutely amazing news and he’s given us a starter on the Bundesliga site, official site. They have Schick of course, injured but Schick was a disappointment in the first half of the season. They have pace with Diaby. They have Hložek who I really trust that he’ll score some goals till the end of the season. I think that this will be one of the most entertaining matches besides this one from today. Leipzig and Bayern. The problem is that Gladbach lost Yann Sommer, their main keeper.

Thuram is doubtful, one of their best players in attack. They still have Alassane Pléa but I don’t… This game should offer goals. Don’t go with one side or the other or whatever. I don’t think that there is value on Leverkusen at plus 135. Probably the values on Gladbach at home but given the long break, given the loss of their main keeper and one of their best attacking players being doubtful for this match, there is no value on that plus 165. I think that this game can go crazy but 2-2 or a 3-3 type of match. But this is why I’m not going for one side or the other. I’m going with goals in general and I really think that Leverkusen should score on their own twice here.

Flash:

Listen, the reason and I’m not putting you down here, the reason why I’ve got so many units in is because Gladbach being disrespected home and away and scoring goals. I cannot believe Kev that Gladbach are plus 100 just to score twice and yet we are looking at minus 115 over three. I think if you get over three goals in this game, Gladbach score twice, then it’s plus 100. Yes, Gladbach might not win the game if they scored twice. But you’re going to give me Gladbach, first to score twice plus 100 then you’re going to give me Gladbach at plus 165 when I’ve seen Leverkusen weak and spread out against the Gladbach side who have got the pace and power to exploit. I’m going to take the 165. First game back, home side, a team that does me well.

Kevin :

Yeah, I think again I look at that Gladbach to score twice or more and it’s plus 100 there. I think that was bigger when I first looked at it earlier this week. I think that’s come in a bit and I think that’s because people have realized it’s a good bet because Gladbach have done most of their best work at home under Daniel Farke. I think they’re definitely moving in the right direction. Yann Sommer leaving is a blow and no doubt about that but Omlin who’s the guy they’ve brought in is excellent. So I think there’ll be a slight drop off because Sommer is for me the best goalkeeper in the Bundesliga.

But I think Gladbach will be okay in that regard in the long term. They’ve got Olschowsky who they like very much as a talented young backup and he’ll probably play this game, at least that seems to be the talk at the moment. So I think Gladbach pack a punch. Leverkusen, I’m not convinced. Florian Wirtz coming back is massive for them but he can’t do the defensive work and I think the goalkeepers a problem. I think defensively they’ve got issues and we’ve seen no evidence yet that Xabi Alonzo can organize a defense. So I think Gladbach scoring a couple of goals is the way I’m going to go.

Flash:

Yeah, I cannot… I’m really looking forward to it because Leverkusen is a side that I want to be with, and again I was with them a few times when I started thinking they must get desperate but this Gladbach side I’m going to hope…

Alex :

We have to say that Leverkusen should be a European side. I mean they should play in Europe or normally [inaudible 00:48:17].

Flash:

Alex, they were my tip. They were my tip to finish behind Bayern Munich. I don’t want to embarrass myself but they’re seven from bottom. It’s horrendous and they are… But again, like we’ve said in other leagues, Sevilla, Celta Vigo in La Liga, Leicester, West Ham in the Premier League, there’s so many teams that are doing this, but there’s always a team that recovers. I think Leverkusen will recover. But when you’re giving me a plus 165 for a real team and I’m expecting Thuram to play, by the way. If I see a lineup and I’m not liking it, remember I will and can pull out by letting Bet US TV know on the social media side of things.

Okay. Let’s have a look at the official picks then I’ll give you this weekend’s boost in the Premier League. I gave you the boost and it came up yesterday. So Gladbach team total over 100, Kev. Gladbach money line plus 165 for [inaudible 00:49:14]. And both teams to score over two and half at minus 125. Yeah, nice. Gladbach win 3-1, 3-2. Everyone is a winner. We love that. Now before the Q&A, let me give you the boost. It’s in the Leipzig, Bayern game, which is the Friday night game and basically it is over two and a half goals in the game and each side to have more than one corner, it says one plus corner. So I’m not sure whether that means at least one corner each.

Alex :

At least one corner.

Flash:

So it’s at least one corner each in both halves and it’s plus 150, which you’d think if you’re going to go with goals, you’re basically the… You’ve got to be thinking that both teams have at least one corner in both halves and that means you’re getting plus 150 for over two and a half goals in the game, which is an absolute no-brainer. Like yesterday, Man City, and it came out like minus 110 and it flew over. So it was Man City to win, money line, at the most corners and some goal, and Haaland to score. So anyway…

Alex :

Also, Flash, I had a second bet for this match, Leverkusen team total over 1.5 goals at…

Flash:

Well, did it not spin up?

Alex :

No it didn’t pop.

Flash:

Well let’s have a… Okay, so we’ve got Leverkusen team total over one and a half goals.

Alex :

And team to score and over 2.5 at minus 125.

Flash:

So why is Leverkusen team total over one and half minus… Because they favorites. Oh my god, they think there’s going to be at least four goals in this game and the other one is both teams to score.

Alex :

And we’re all happy. Ah, no, 3-2. We win it 3-2.

Flash:

No because you… Yeah, exactly. The graphics boys were on fire there because your first one was both teams to score an over and then they spun your team total as well.

Alex :

Yeah I saw after you said it.

Flash:

Exactly. Hey don’t be loading that gun too early [inaudible 00:51:10]. People get shot with things like that. Okay, time for Q&A. So make sure you start typing now and I’m going to remind you and ask you to subscribe and also ring the bell, which means we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. And we’ve got Champions League and Europa League coming up very, very soon. And if you are on social media, I’ve mentioned it 10 times, make sure you follow at BetUS TV. Okay, I think we’ve covered nearly absolutely everything. Oh, Mitch says… He’s a bit of a stalker, Mitch. We do love him though. Kev, what games are you doing?

Kevin :

I’ll be doing Leipzig, Bayern tactical feeds. So we offer an alternative service on the…

Flash:

What does that mean, tactical feed?

Kevin :

It’s a wider camera, it means we can talk about formation changes, things like that. We can talk about data a bit more, talk about some of the… Put up more graphics than we normally would in a game. So it’s kind of an alternative commentary service. And then on Saturday, Union against Hoffenheim.

Flash:

Nice. Okay Alex, you can take this one. [inaudible 00:52:12], is [inaudible 00:52:14] worth taking to score at any time at plus 125?

Alex :

Ah no. I want to see how he will start and after that go with him. I want to see him start training and after that… Plus 125, it seems a bit low to be honest.

Flash:

Yeah, skinny, very skinny.

Alex :

If Musiala is at plus 2.40 you give [inaudible 00:52:35]… Okay, I understand that they’re playing different roles but still plus 125 is a little bit too to… It’s not that much of a value.

Flash:

Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks please. It’s a great weekend and it’s great to have such a massive game to kick us off Bundesliga at week 16. Kev’s gone with Leipzig versus Bayern. He’s gone with Musiala anytime scorer plus 240. Alex has gone Bayern and over two and half at plus 140. Kev, Wolfsburg team total plus 140. Gladbach team total over plus 100 and both their team total overs are one and a half. Alex, Frankfurt for halftime, full-time at plus 105. Dortmund halftime, full-time plus 100. Gladbach, Leverkusen, both teams are scoring over two and a half at minus 125. And Leverkusen team total over one and half at minus 110.

And for me it’s Union and Hoffenheim, both teams to score over two and half at plus 120. Dortmund, Augsburg, I’ve gone with Sébastien Haller to score at anytime at plus 100. If he doesn’t star then I am… It’s voided. And Gladbach money line, monster plus 165. So for everyone in the chat please thumbs up on your way out. It’s great to have you all back. May all your bets be winners, Kev go well with your tactical feeds and your…

Alex :

Can’t wait to hear that. I will be on the train hearing Kev on the tactical feed.

Flash:

On the train? Are you going on a [inaudible 00:54:03]?

Alex :

No, it was the last… I couldn’t find a plane because I have a family emergency and right now I’m leaving.

Flash:

Not too serious I hope, Alex.

Alex :

Hopefully.

Flash:

Hopefully not, you mean?

Alex :

Hopefully not. Yeah.

Flash:

Okay. Listen, all our best wishes obviously go with you and may all our bets be winners. Have a great weekend, Kev. From Alex, from myself, from everyone at Bet US, you take care.

 

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