Bundesliga Picks Matchday 19 | Bundesliga Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

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Okay. The records will be up as well. They’re looking very healthy even though your presenter went 0 in four, but I have two top draw experts. I’ve got the voice of world soccer in Kevin Hatchard. He’s a commentator and also analysis and probably one of the best at his job. And on the other side I’ve got someone who has a name on the Alex Classic, which is both teams to score and over two-and-a-half goals. But we are calling him the Boomerang because a few weeks ago he was out 14 units down and now he’s absolutely flying. So first of all, Kev, how are you mate?

Kevin Matchard:

I’m really good. Yeah, really good. I think it’s been a good start to the year. I think we’ve seen some great performances, some great surprises already, lots of goals, which is what we always like to see in the Bundesliga, no surprises there. And I think we’ve got a very, very interesting title race. Obviously the signing of Joao Cancelo for Bayern is a real blow to the rest of the league because I think that could be transformational for Bayern. But certainly, if you look at the way Frankfurt took the game to them in the second half last week, I think that fear factor at the moment with Bayern isn’t there.

Flash:

No, true.

Kevin Matchard:

So it’s interesting. It’s a really interesting title race.

Flash:

And do you think he’ll go play instead of Alphonso Davies or do you think it’s just a nice problem to have?

Kevin Matchard:

No, I think he’ll play right back. I think they’ll play Davies at left back, Cancelo at right back. And it means that if they need to give Davies a rest every so often, they can, but if you look at the right back situation, Stanisic doesn’t have a huge amount of top level experience. Pavard, his form is not where it needs to be right now, and he had a very disappointing World Cup. Of course, Jules Kounde took his spot. So I think that’s an area they needed to strengthen and they’ve absolutely done that.

Flash:

Okay. Yeah, I love the fact that the fear factor has gone out of Bayern, Alex, because I’ve got one, two, three, four, five teams within three points. They’ve got Bayern who have not won in three games. All right, they’ve not lost neither. It’s just three straight draws. I’ve got Union Berlin have won their last three, Leipzig unbeaten in five, Dortmund unbeaten in their last three. They’ve won three, and Freiburg, I thought Freiburg were probably the weakest of them at the moment up until last week. I didn’t think they’d restarted.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, the best surprise is still Union Berlin. They’re second place, taking advantage of Bayern’s bad steps. Bayern bounced back with a thrilling win against the Mainz in the Cup, which says everything about what Nagelsmann is saying to them in the dressing room and how they they’re supposed to play. I think that they will also bounce back this week. Very good from Union, not only in the league but also in the Cup where they beat Wolfsburg.

Imagine, this round might finish with Union as leaders. Imagine after 19 rounds. The problem with Bayern is that we have less than two weeks till the Champions League is back, right? So they should put some more points between them and their followers in Bundesliga because after that they will have to play every, I don’t know, two times per week. And that is-

Flash:

Two, two, two, that’s six.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, exactly six. I know that you’re good with your maths man. So yeah, I think that it’s an incredible title race. I think that it’s more thrilling than ever. So I think that this card, it looks really good again and we are on a roll.

Flash:

Yeah, we are on a roll. We’ve got six games. We’ve got seven games to cover but there also will be a bonus of me giving a selection from an eighth game. We are not going to cover that. I’m just going to give you my selection from that game because it’s part of a parlay, which I really, really like. So let’s not mess about, let’s have a little look at the records.

I went 0 in four last week and I was so confident as well, but 28.19. Kev, you are now the BetUS number one capper across the four shows. That’s 16.06, long may that continue. Alex, look at you. You’re only like this week away from getting up with Prop of The Week, which is great and positive territory, which you said you would do anyway, but there was no doubt. Okay, let’s move on. Let’s start with the first game because I thought the first game was very tricky.

Koln at +285 host Leipzig at -105. Now, you know I’m on Leipzig. I took 1800 last week, +1800 for Leipzig to actually win the league. They’re now at +800. The draw is at +280, over two-and-a-half goals is at -140.Kev, we start with you because Koln at home, they’re good but Leipzig looked to me to probably be the best side at this moment in time.

Kevin Matchard:

Yeah, they are. It’s quite trappy this game, I think. I think you look at Leipzig, their home form’s been absolutely outstanding. There’s no question about that. Won 10 out of 11. I did their game in midweek in the Cup and they deserved to win against Hoffenheim but it was a strange game. They were 2-nil up and then cruised through and looked as though they were going to be all right, and then they conceded a goal, a bit of sloppiness late on and suddenly they had to work really hard for it.

So away from home against a Koln team that beat Werder 7-1, they drew nil-nil with Schalke, disappointing result, but it’s another point on the road. It was interesting. I’ve spoken to people close to Koln recently and they tell me that the big change in Koln has been the fitness because they’ve always been a fit side under Steffen Baumgart, that’s what he demands. But if you think about it, they’ve had the World Cup break, they had 10 weeks off, they effectively had a mid-season break and another pre-season, and they are as fit as they’ve been and that is making a massive, massive difference.

And players who go there, new signings who go there are really quite amazed by the levels of fitness at the football club. So that underpins everything they do. Should Leipzig be the favorites? Absolutely, yes. But odds on, they’re not one for me. So I think this could be a really interesting game. Leipzig in the form they’re in are certainly capable of winning it but it’s a dicey one for me.

Flash:

Yeah. Does it worry you? I’m going to stay with you Kev for a second. Does it worry you about Leipzig’s arrogance? Listen, I really like Leipzig where they’re at at the moment but they do have this in their DNA of going two up, foot off the gas, all of a sudden we are like party party, but you know that 2-nil is the most fragile lead in soccer.

Kevin Matchard:

Yeah, I don’t think so. I think what happened in midweek actually was that Hoffenheim had been so bad that it was a strange game. It was a very strange game as well because there was a medical incident in the stands just before kickoff and that made the atmosphere really, really downbeat understandably. And so it was a strange game anyway. Leipzig took an early lead and it didn’t look for all the world as though Hoffenheim were going to get back into it until they scored a very good goal and Angelino whipped one in for Kasper Dolberg.

So I think in general they’ve been very, very good under Marco Rose. I don’t think there’s an arrogance there necessarily. I think it’s just that was a very strange game. I think it won’t be for one of trying if they don’t get a result at Koln. I think they’re just visiting a team that is fit and that can live with them physically and there aren’t many teams that can live with that high Leipzig press but they can.

Flash:

Yeah, they are decent at home, and Alex, do we see both teams scoring over here and is it Leipzig to win and both teams to score? [inaudible 00:09:50] says that a +275 for Leipzig, but if you’re a Leipzig supporter, they’re -105 and runaway, isn’t it?

Alex Campean:

Yeah. Again, like Kev said, their away form has improved recently. They are unbeaten in five. They won the last three. I’m talking about Leipzig now. What they’re doing is they’re taking early leads, they’re pressing high, they are trying to score early goals to make their life easier for the rest of the game. But what happened in Stuttgart, I was sweating so much when Stuttgart scored that only goal of theirs, and after that they looked a little bit scared, Leipzig. They were keeping the ball but without attacking. They said, “Okay, let’s keep the ball, let the time go and we will win 2-1.” But still Stuttgart, if it wasn’t Stuttgart, if it was for example, I don’t know, a Wolfsburg team that they were going all in, I think that they could have scored also the second goal. But Stuttgart limited quality was key to that game.

Against Koln, they cannot afford to do the same thing, also being on the road. I was surprised about that… I was surprised of that 0-0 of Koln against Schalke, but I was more surprised for the fact that they recorded zero shots on target against Schalke. So it says a lot about that game and now they will be back home. They put on some good performances this year and I’m expecting them to give some hard time to Leipzig, but Leipzig quality and high press from the beginning should be able to solve the match.

I think it’ll be a high scoring affair. I think that Koln will also score. So the Alex Classic is on the line here. I think it’s a winning bet. I think that Leipzig can win at half-time. I don’t know what to have, I’m scared to go at this -105. I think it’s the price is not exactly what I was expecting but still, my banker of the week comes from this match because I’m expecting Leipzig to score at least twice. They scored two, I don’t know in the last three, four matches. They score with easiness the goals. They are very creative from the middle and up despite being without Nkunku.

It’s good for Leipzig that everyone scores. Like last weekend, Szoboszlai scored twice, right? And with shots from outside the box, incredible goals. So I think that we should keep this Leipzig train going. So yeah, my bet is Leipzig to score two goals here.

Flash:

Yeah, I think it’s one of those. It’s a real test for Leipzig and we’ll know exactly where they’re at because if you go to Koln and you do what you want to do by pressing and getting yourself, it’s all about them getting their noses in front because then all of a sudden they grow another couple of inches and they all want the ball and their movement’s so good. But for some reason, listen, don’t get me wrong, I want live Leipzig to win every single game and I want them to win the league now, I’ve put my money down but I don’t need to be getting involved in them individually, although I am cheering them on.

Let’s have a little look at the official picks because I know that Alex has gone for the team total of over one-and-a-half at -130. So Leipzig to score twice. Does that mean that Leipzig score twice they win the game? Not necessarily. Which will also bring in the over two-and-a-half at the round, the -140. I think it was Koln, +185 to score twice. But the both teams to score over is also going to be very, very popular. Let’s move on to game number two.

Frankfurt, -205 against Hertha, a +525. Hertha had the big Berlin Derby last week and for me they were awful. They were awful. They were just not really… I just cannot believe it was such a massive occasion and they just got brushed aside. I didn’t think Union were that great neither. I thought the standard was very, very poor but Union did what they had to do. Draw is a +375. Over three at +110. I fancy Alex, we’re looking at Frankfurt goals here. I’m not sure Hertha contribute but there again, it’s just all about the home side.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, Eintracht are one of the best home teams in Bundesliga right now. They are averaging almost three goals scored per game at home, and on the other side, Hertha have won just one game on the road and they looked so, so bad last week like you mentioned against Union Berlin. I think that this is a straightforward win for Frankfurt, who should remain there in the battle of the top four, are just two points behind Dortmund [inaudible 00:14:55] right now.

So I think that the only problem I have here is the way that Eintracht will start. If they start good, which I hope they do because this is one of my bets, they should win 3,4-0 in my opinion. Maybe Hertha will score, maybe not. But if Eintracht scores in the first 20 minutes of the game, I think that we’ll see a demolishing here. So it’s all about the way that they will enter this game. It’s all about respecting their opponent because yes, Hertha are bad but you never know how they will enter this match. This should be a perfect opportunity for Eintracht to close the gap on the top spots here.

So yeah, straightforward, not many injury issues, also important for the home team. So yeah, home win all the way here.

Flash:

So it’s -1-130. Kev is a free hit. I’m not sure if Frankfurt score three at +155 because I don’t think they’ll need to. I think we’ve got contrasting styles here. We’ve got sharp intelligent little footballers against a team that are disjointed and a little bit robotic.

Kevin Matchard:

It’s a tough one to explain really, the Hertha situation. Fredi Bobic is the man who’s been removed but it kind of hints at the chaotic thinking at the club, that they got rid of Fredi Bobic before the transfer window was shut. And so several of the deals they’d lined up for January then disappeared up in spoke because they’d got rid of the guy who was bringing those players in. So I think that just shows you where they’re at right now.

I think Kay Bernstein, who is the president who is a former Ultra, he is a Hertha through and through. I’ve got no problem with the guy like that being the club president. I think it’s a great thing actually, but what it can lead to his emotional decisions and I think that’s what we’ve seen there. I think Sandro Schwarz, the coach, as much as I like him, as much as I think if they did stick with him they’d be okay in the long run, I think he’s under enormous pressure. And so this is a very, very tough game for them.

For Frankfurt, I was very impressed with them in the second half at Bayern last week. I thought Randal Kolo Muani was absolutely outstanding. He’s got seven goals and 10 assists now in the Bundesliga in his first ever season.

Flash:

He’s dangerous.

Kevin Matchard:

He is averaging a goal involvement a game, which is absolutely remarkable.

Alex Campean:

Crazy.

Kevin Matchard:

And I’ve never seen Dayot Upamecano back off in the way that he did last Saturday. I love Upamecano. I think he’s great and I think he’s a really good front foot defender but not last week, and that’s because he knows Kolo Muani’s game inside out because they played together and they trained together at the World Cup in Qatar with France, and you could see that with the goal that Kolo Muani scored. So he’s the man in form.

I think if you are looking at this game and you think Frankfurt are going to win, I think this leads you to anytime gold scorer market. You look at guys like Kolo Muani, you look at Lindstrom, you look at Kamada, that’s where you look, I think, because -1-130, no that’s not for me. You really stretching for over two-and-a-half at +155.

Alex Campean:

They have Gotze, and Gotze, Kev, will improve the [inaudible 00:18:17]

Flash:

This is what I was going to say.

Kevin Matchard:

Gotze’s been excellent.

Flash:

All of a sudden, you look at the Frankfurt bench and they’ve got players that are going to come on and can influence the game. And I tell you what also? When they come off the bench, then they keep the ball, they’re comfortable and they look after the ball.

Kevin Matchard:

Yeah, they’ve got lots of good options and Gotze’s has been a regular starter. That’s why Kamada’s been moved a bit deeper. So you’ve got that lovely balance of Kolo Muani stretching teams, leading the line, Gotze and Lindstrom behind him, Kamada in that kind of six alongside Djibril Sow, and they look really, really well-balanced. I think Philip Max is a great signing down that left-hand side. He knows the league, he’s experienced. I think he’s better than what they had. Christopher Lenz, I don’t think he is on Max’s level. Pellegrini was not a success so he’s gone. So again, smart moves in the market. It’s a club on the up, no question.

Flash:

Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks because for me this is the first leg of my two team parlay. Remember the last one? We’re not going to cover the game. I’m just going to surprise you on the best bets graphic at the end. But Frankfurt, just moneyline is my first leg of my parlay and Frankfurt half-time, full-time at +120. There’s another one I like though, Frankfurt to be leading at half-time is +100. Well, if I fancy they’re leading at half-time, then they’re going to lead at full-time. So there’s the +120 from Alex who is in absolutely great form.

Alex Campean:

Also, if you find Eintracht scoring both halves, that is also another good idea. But only-

Flash:

Yeah, you say that, unless they’re 3-nil up at half-time, in which case you’ve complicated it but you picked up a winner at +120.

Alex Campean:

Correct.

Flash:

Okay, so let’s move on to game number three because this game would’ve been so difficult. I think it’s still difficult but not so, so. Union at home at -105, and Mainz at +310 do not look like the Mainz pre-World Cup draw at +245. Union to score twice is at +120. A lot of people I think will buy on that. Mainz not to score is at +140 but the under/over is at two-and-a-half. I’m thinking that we may… Alex, I think we may see over two-and-a-half goals here at +120.

Alex Campean:

Probably, probably. It’s a difficult match but okay, if you look at Union’s form, four wins in a row across all competitions, three in Bundesliga, one in DFB Pokal. If you look at their home form, the last game they lost was in, I don’t know, April last year. They won 10 of their last 14 games at home and the nice thing is that when they started this run of 14 games unbeaten at home, they started with a win against Mainz. Hopefully it’ll not end with a defeat against Mainz because this is the way the football gods are playing with us from time to time.

I think that they are very organized and okay, I’m seeing Siebatcheu Jordan having some hard times lately to find the back of the net. But still, the team is scoring, still the team is fighting and winning games even when they are down goals. The fighting spirit is there. Their home form is absolutely amazing and you have also, Mains on the other side who is not a bad team on the road but they’re conceding a lot of goals on the road.

The fact that in the last four years I think, Union Berlin never lost a match at home against Mainz, it says a lot but this is the good thing about Union Berlin. The thing that they might sit at least one day because we have till Sunday when Bayern Munich will play. If they win this game they will be leading the Bundesliga before Bayern Munich’s match. Even if for that one day, they should go all in and they should fight for their lives to beat Mainz. I’m not going with the home win. I think there is plenty of value. I would see them around +110 against Mainz, but that over 1.5 total team goals at +120 is great, is amazing.

Flash:

Kev, Union, home or away, they have this patience about them. They’re in no rush. It’s almost like they stalk and they will take their chance when it comes. The way I’ve gone with this game is that I’m thinking that Mainz will definitely try and frustrate and make sure they stay in the game because recently they’ve been out of games before they… in the blink of an eye.

Kevin Matchard:

Well, what Mainz will do is try and hit on the counter. They’ll look at Karim Onisiwo’s pace on the counter. They’ll look to try and cause Union problems that way, but as we’ve seen, Union so ruthless in front of goal. They’ve got such a set-piece threat. Danilho Doekhi is a nightmare to mark. He’s scored with almost every goal attempt in the league this season. Thought it was great that Union were able to beat Wolfsburg in midweek, scored a couple of goals.

I think Alex is absolutely right that over one-and-a-half team total at +120 is a really attractive price and that’s the way to go really because if you look at Union’s goal scoring, they do regularly score at least two goals at home. And Mainz, if you look at it, they played on Wednesday against Bayern. They were given the runarounds. They were well, well beaten 4-nil by Bayern. They had a man sent off late on. They haven’t had much time to turn it around really, fitness wise and preparation wise. So I do think Mainz might score but it doesn’t bother us because I think if we’re on Union to score a couple of goals then that’ll see us home.

Flash:

Yeah, I took a little bit of a different view. Yeah, I totally agree. I think Union score twice. I think Union win the game as well. So you could go Union to win and over one-and-a-,half or don’t complicate and just go Union at +120. But let’s have a little look at the official picks because they are a good side Union, but they’re not one to actually lay my head on a block because I’ve gone first half draw at +100. I think that Mainz may stay in the game for about an hour, as I’ve seen many times with Union, but if you are on Union, then you know that they keep going for 95 minutes and they will find a way.

If they score one, they don’t sit back neither. They do go looking for that second. So that’s perfect for the voice and for Alex because they’re both got Union team total, over one-and-a-half at +120. Yes Alex?

Alex Campean:

I was looking also some stats, they have the most goals from set-pieces, Union Berlin-

Flash:

Yeah, big threat.

Alex Campean:

Across all the league. They are amazing, right?

Flash:

Yeah. You know why? Because they actually attack the ball. If you watch them, they leave the space between the man kicking the ball and the space where it’s going to enter. Whereas too many of these sides, they go and line up against their man and they’re ending up jumping either with the next man, nobody sort of attacks the ball. Whereas these boys, they leave themselves maybe on the edge of the box and they know where the ball’s going and it’s normally three or four yards ahead of them and they go and attack. And a lot of the defenders these days, if they don’t block you, they don’t track you and that’s just in a little six yard area.

So I’m all for the old saying of how comes defenders always win the ball in their own box and yet when it’s in the opposition box, they don’t? There’s no reason for it. If you go back in time, so many defenders used to score 10, 11 goals a season because they got on the end of free kicks and corners because they attack the ball the same as they do in their own box. Well, Union do that. Union do do that. Even if it doesn’t go in, the amount of times they actually win the ball from corners, from diagonal free-kicks is always good, especially when you’re on team total over at one-and-a-half. Let’s move on.

Oh, points are begging here for the home side and they’re at +185. It’s Bochum hosting Hoffenheim at +140. Hoffenheim haven’t started. Draw, +260. Under/overs at three at +115. Bochum to score twice, Kev, is at +125. Hoffenheim to score twice is at +110. I think first of all, we must see over three goals at +115 if Hoffenheim, the old Hoffenheim turn up.

Kevin Matchard:

Well, I think this is all about Bochum’s home record, to be honest. I think if you look at their season since Thomas Letsch took over as coach, very, very strong at home, beaten some really good opposition at home and away from home, they’re atrocious and I think that’s the duality of their season that we’ve seen and actually, that’s gone on for quite some time. If you look at last season under Thomas Rice, almost all of Bochum’s best performances were at home. Yes, they won at Dortmund, which is very impressive. But generally, it was about the home performances.

Hoffenheim, I’ve covered a lot recently. Covered their defeat at Union, covered their defeat at Leipzig in midweek and they’ve had a lot of injury problems. They look really, really low on confidence at the moment. They’re giving away lots of goals. If you look at that first goal that Leipzig scored in the Cup in midweek, if anybody hasn’t seen it, Kevin Akpoguma, who looked really uncomfortable at right wing back, he was caught completely out of position, then Ihlas Bebou tracking back, who’s usually decent without the ball, really half-hearted effort to get to Forsberg and he lashed it in off the near post.

So that’s the kind of goal they have been conceding. They have lost I think something like seven out of the last 10 in the league. They’ve conceded lots of goals in that spell and are just think Bochum with the crowd behind them, with the confidence they tend to get at the Ruhrstadion, this is a bit of a nightmare for Hoffenheim, I think potentially. So for that draw no bet to be odds against, I think is very, very attractive.

Flash:

Yeah. I’m just wondering what Bochum are at double chance, even if they’re -135 and you’ve got the draw as well, it might be a parlay piece but I’m just wondering Alex if you can trust Hoffenheim? Because they are the side type of side that can score three or four goals when they’re at it. Yes, they still let in a couple. I think the one thing you can always rely on when Hoffenheim are involved and the way that Bochum play, an attitude at home is that we see goals. Now, the Alex Classic, which is both seems to score at over two-and-a-half, is it -110? I’m wondering if the over two-and-a-half is going to be around the same price?

Alex Campean:

No, and over two-and-a-half is at -130.

Flash:

Okay.

Alex Campean:

Yeah. No, you don’t trust Hoffenheim. Of course, the form of Hoffenheim, the injury issues of Hoffenheim and I think that Bochum’s approach this season to remain in the Bundesliga is to win their home games. This is what they’re doing. I think that they’re playing like nothing on the road and they’re giving everything at home and they won against Union Berlin, they won against Eintracht. They’re scoring goals but they’re also conceding, and when we are talking about Hoffenheim, even if they lose, draw or win, they’re scoring goals.

So I think that this is an Alex Classic all the way here, but Bochum are overpriced at +185. I think that you can take them on PK at +110. I don’t think that they will lose this game but again, it’s risky to take one of the two sides, right? Hoffenheim, dreadful form but you’d never know, like you said when they will bounced back. Still, Bochum, absolutely amazing lately at home no matter the opponent. So I think that it’s better to take the goals market here instead of risking a bit on the moneyline.

Flash:

Well, Bochum to score twice at +125.

Alex Campean:

Or that, yes.

Kevin Matchard:

Yeah, that’s possible. My only concern was that if this becomes a really hot, two teams desperate for points as a relegation battle, do they stink the place out and it ends up being a 1-nil or a nil-nil, or something like that? But yeah, I think you look at the way Hoffenheim are defending right now. Yeah, I wouldn’t back against Bochum goals necessarily.

Flash:

Yeah. And also, Bochum are +185, just seems to get bigger the more and more we talk about it. And the other thing is with Bochum, it’s do-or-die with them. It is as simple as that and they cannot leave anything after the 95th minute whistle because they need to be picking up points especially at home. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks. I left this one well alone, to be honest. Both teams to score at over two-and-a-half at -110 for Alex and Bochum, PK, which is draw no bet at +110. If you are new, draw no bet means if it’s a draw there is no bet, you get your money back. Okay?

Okay, let’s move on. Warfare. So we’re looking at Gladbach versus Schalke, and Gladbach at -190, Schalke, +460. This is a little bit like David and Goliath, not in the stature of the teams but in the stature of the personnel that wears the shirts because Gladbach are very, very strong but they’re also quite naive, very raw in defensive situations. The over is at three at -115. The draw is at +370.

Kev, go first for me because Schalke, they’re all over the shop and yet they kept a clean sheet. I’m looking, I’m thinking Gladbach’s… I’m not sure they score three because that’s +160, but the -1 at -115, I think is a free hit because I fancy the home side pick up maximum points.

Kevin Matchard:

Yeah, I think that’s absolutely fine, the -1 or -115. I think that’s an intelligent way of going about it. I think if you look at Schalke’s away record, it’s absolutely atrocious and has been for a long time. They’re on a Bundesliga record run of 36 away games without winning in the top flight, which is really quite extraordinary. I do like Thomas Rice.

Alex Campean:

It’s crazy. It’s crazy.

Kevin Matchard:

Yeah, it is crazy. And I do very much like Thomas Rice as a coach. I think he’s great. I think he’s an organizer. I think you could see that last week. They have had some new players come in on loan. They don’t have a lot of money but maybe that’ll just give them a bit of a pep up, but I don’t think that’ll happen here. Gladbach have won something like eight of the last 11. They’ve been very strong at home, eight of the last 11 home games in the Bundesliga, and even though they do have a wobble now and again, I just can’t see Schalke keeping them out.

And I think if you look at the players that are in form for Gladbach right now, again I think you are on the anytime goalscorer. I think you look at Hofmann. He’s looked razor sharp since the World Cup break. You look at Marcus Thuram, Alassane Plea, we think will come back even though he didn’t start the last game, and they looked ever so good against Hoffenheim with that 4-1 win. So I do think they look really, really good.

Flash:

The other thing I love about Gladbach, especially at home, unless they come up against a real top side is they smell blood and if they score one early on, they can almost… You know that you’re in for a great day because the left and right back, and this is something I was holding against, I think it was Lazio I was watching yesterday, the left and right back for Gladbach have always become outside left and right wingers because they all want a piece of the action. They all want an assist, they all want to score goals.

And Alex, I mean the +160, someone wrote in the chat and I’m going to try and name them here, Slippy’s like, “First half, over 1.5 goals at +160.” It’s a definite possible. They could score two in the first half because they score one, they don’t start passing around at the back because that’s where their weakness is.

Alex Campean:

If you want to take it further, you should do a lot better press than that. Gladbach on their own to score twice in the first half probably is at +300, +400.

Flash:

Oh, okay.

Alex Campean:

Because Schalke’s away record, like I mentioned, is atrocious. They scored only four goals on the road, two draws and six defeats probably. Yeah, this is what they have right now, and Gladbach, not only that they are winning home but they’re also scoring goals when they lose games and they lost games. Okay, they lost games against Eintracht and they lost games against Leverkusen. But other than that-

Flash:

But when they lost against Leverkusen, we’ve got to put this right, when they lost against Leverkusen, Leverkusen were ruthless but Gladbach had 14 shots on goal.

Alex Campean:

Exactly, and this is the problem with them. Sometimes they’re failing to transform their opportunities into goals. This is my problem with Gladbach. If they are at least 30% higher on that part to transform goals from opportunities, I think that they will be in fourth, fifth right now in the standings. They create a lot, they bring a lot of balls inside the box. They’re shooting from outside the box very nice. They have some great players on aerial balls.

So I think that like you said, the -1… No. Kev said -1 is a free hit at -115. They should be able to score three on their own like how many goals, Schalke? 16 in eight games. Okay, an average of two goals per game conceded on the road, but Schalke right now are in desperate need of points. So I think that they will risk no matter what they’re playing. So when you risk against a team like Gladbach that can hit you on the break like that, you might return home with three, four goals.

Flash:

Okay. Now, the big thing for me is I look at Gladbach and I say to myself, I think they come out the traps really, really fast. I think they score first off, I think they’re leading at half-time and at plus +115 as well. I think it’s a game you can actually get involved with in play. So let’s see.

Alex Campean:

I don’t understand you, Flash, why you didn’t add this one moneyline on your parlay to make it a three team parlay?

Flash:

Well, because I’ve got a three team parlay but it’s with another team in another league because you know that very, very seldom do you go bang, bang, bang in Bundesliga. I had to pick. I had picked two and there could have been four. We’ve mentioned them already and there’s probably another one that could go in this list as well. I left Gladbach because I’m going to play this singular and I left it alone but you didn’t. So let’s have a little look at the official picks please.

So we’ve got Hofmann, anytime goalscorer, +175. It’s like getting a letter from the Queen. So the Hofmann family will be celebrating. Alex, you left it alone as well so you must have had the same thought process as me but at +115, Gladbach to be leading at half-time. I think I’ll have some of that but I’ll definitely be watching this game because if I get a sniff, the Gladbach are going to smash it then the -1, the minus one-and-a-half is definitely going to be going to be hit. Let’s move on.

Is this a gift or a trap? Because Stuttgart, +110 against Werder Bremen at +220. Werder have not been great. Yes, they got away with it last week but Stuttgart, they’re a decent side and it’s a draw at +275. Stuttgart to score twice is -120 which tells you everything. The under or over is at three with the over three being at -110. Kev, Stuttgart versus Werder, home side, is the 110 good enough for you?

Kevin Matchard:

No, I don’t like that price particularly. For some reason, the markets love Stuttgart at home. I’ve never quite understood it. Ever since they came back into the league, they seem to really favor Stuttgart at home. What I would say though is that since Bruno Labbadia came back for a second spell as manager, I’ve done two of their three games. I covered their game against Hoffenheim when they drew 2-2, probably should have won the game. I did their game at Leipzig last week and I thought if you consider how many players they had out injured, suspended or ill, they did brilliantly. It was such a good performance when you consider they really are or certainly were then down to the bare bones.

So I look at their capability going forward and again, I look at goalscorers because the one I’ve picked out is Serhou Guirassy. He didn’t play the last game because of a stomach upset but he should be back now and he’s been scoring lots of goals for them. He’s scored in six of his last 10, mainly at home as well. He tends to score a lot of goals at home. I look at Werder, they leaked seven goals in their last away game at Koln. They also conceded a couple at home to Union. They conceded at home to Wolfsburg as well and Wolfsburg made a couple of chances in that game.

So I do think Stuttgart will make chances and I think most of those attacking sorties will be directed towards Guirassy and he was an attractive price to score. So that’s the way I’ve gone here.

Flash:

Yeah, massive price. This is one of them games where we look and we say Stuttgart are going to score. It’s one of those maybe both teams are scoring over, not worry about who actually wins, Alex.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, probably Stuttgart given their form at home in front of their fans. But do I trust any of these two teams? No, I don’t trust any of these two teams. Stuttgart, the last weekend when they played against Leipzig, I was watching their game in the second half. Okay, they scored but they were scared to score the second goal or they didn’t have the quality to score the second goal. I don’t know, they were pressing but they were pressing till the last third, till the final third. After that, they were losing the ball very quick like that.

So I don’t rush Stuttgart. Werder Bremen are so bad, it’s a pass for me, a total pass. I don’t know, this game could go crazy. We could see five goals but we could easily see also a one draw. So it’s better to focus on the props if you don’t have nothing.

Flash:

Yeah, and that’s another way to go and it’s great here because Anderson in the chat says, “Wrong odds because Bremen hasn’t won in Stuttgart since 2013.” I’m not sure how many games they’ve actually played because they’ve been up and down like a yo-yo. Ponies, which is Mitch saying, “Fullkrug, are we trusting him to get anytime goalscorer?” Well, listen, if they score, he scores. It’s simple as that.

Kevin Matchard:

Yeah.

Flash:

That is the one thing you can rely on that he will have attempts on goal.

Kevin Matchard:

He’s looked sharp actually. He has looked sharp since [inaudible 00:42:00].

Flash:

“Werder don’t allow many shots,” says Steve. Well, they let in plenty when they got beat seven and they haven’t kept clean sheets neither though, Steve. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because the value here on the home side, Guirassy, anytime goalscorer, +210. Was you expecting that to be a bit lower than that though, Kev?

Kevin Matchard:

Way lower, way lower. I couldn’t believe it was +210.

Flash:

Yeah, that starts to make me think it might be a little mistake but we’ll take the +210.

Kevin Matchard:

No, it’s in there. I think people will look at it. Sometimes you get that, especially with the striker that hasn’t been in the league long. It can take a little while for the market to adjust to what that player is doing. Let’s not forget, how long was Christopher Nkunku once against? And he’d been scoring goals for well over a year or so.

Flash:

His problem, the problem was he was playing down the middle scoring goals and then they moved him out wide which actually favored him and made him more dangerous, but they looked at him and thought, “Oh, he is playing out wide now so we’ll offer the +150, +160,” and he was getting more opportunities because people couldn’t pick him up. And then with his pace and composure in front of goal, how many times did you see him? I digress but I love thinking about it, is he starts on the left and he makes that near post run across a defender, whips it in and it’s like where did he come from? I love that.

Anyway, so let’s move on to a big game, big price. Wolfsburg, +420, host Bayern, -175. Bayern are not coming in scaring anybody and they’re certainly not going to come into this game scaring the home side. The home side are a +180 to score twice, which I think is massive. Bayern, you got to be looking at them to score three at +140. Alex, are we surprised that the under overs at three-and-a-half, with over three-and-a-half goals at +110, when both of these like to play front foot. I’m also thinking Wolfsburg, +1 at -105, which means Wolfsburg could get beat and you get your money back if Bayern only win by one goal. Bayern are not the same Bayern as last season.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, they’re not the same Bayern as they were last season. A lot of changes, a lot of problems inside the dressing room, but I think that it was very important, the 4-0 win against Mainz during the midweek Cup match. On the other side, we love Wolfsburg, we love their aggressivity, we love their pace, we love how they’re scoring goals in every single match, no matter if they’re losing. But I think that they look a bit depleted lately in the last two games, including the DFB Pokal match.

And on the other side, I think that it’s time for Bayern to get scared because they are only one point at the top of the table. Union Berlin and many other teams are breathing down their neck. So they should be more careful because again, like I said at the beginning of the show, the Champions League will restart in less than two weeks and they will have all the eyes on that competition. So they should put some more points between them and their followers.

What I’m saying is that Bayern, no matter if Wolfsburg are a tough nut to crack, if they’re scoring goals or not, yes they’re a great team, this match should have a lot of goals. But I think that at the end of the day, Bayern will return home with the points. I know that you’ll say that Wolfsburg are way overpriced, +420, but I think that Bayern -1 is a free hit. I don’t see them winning by a ton of goals, but I still think that that -1 is a free hit. I’m not going in that direct direction. I’ll combine the moneyline with the goals market because I see at least three goals in this match. So you know where I’m going.

Flash:

Okay. Kev, Wolfsburg, +420 for a side that loves playing at home, loves scoring goals and loves going on the front foot. I’ve got this as all the value is under the home side’s name. And if they go 1-nil up, I can then all of a sudden hedge and do what I like. But I see Wolfsburg really giving this side probably the biggest scare they’ve had in the last few games and they’ve all had 1-1 draws and I think Wolfsburg are the most dangerous side they’ve played, including them last three.

Kevin Matchard:

Okay. So I’ve been tipping this league a fair old while now and-

Alex Campean:

Really?

Kevin Matchard:

What happens is-

Alex Campean:

[inaudible 00:46:40].

Kevin Matchard:

You’ll know this, you’ll both know this, right? When you tip a league a long time, there are certain fixtures that scar you time after time, right? And this is that because I cannot tell you the number of times I’ve come to Wolfsburg against Bayern and thought, “Ooh, Wolfsburg are playing quite well. That’s quite a tricky game for Bayern,” and Bayer win 5-1, 6 1, absolutely pummel them. There is something about that Wolfsburg against Bayern mentality, just doesn’t work for Wolfsburg. And Flash, you’re absolutely right. A 100%, you’re right. I’ve been on that Wolfsburg train for ages. I really love Niko Kovac’s style.

Flash:

Don’t get off. This is where it [inaudible 00:47:29].

Kevin Matchard:

I’m not sure it is, you know. The thing is, I don’t know. The reason I’ve left it to a certain extent is I don’t know because I look at what Wolfsburg are capable of and of course, +420 is too big, +180 for them to score twice is massive, but against Bayern, they crumble so often, so often.

Flash:

Let me take you back to what you said and obviously I’m building up my own part here. The very first thing we said, the fear factor is not at its highest at this moment.

Kevin Matchard:

Yeah, yeah, you’re right. Again, you’re right, but I’ve seen this movie so often, that they’ll go to the Volkswagen arena-

Flash:

No, the home team gets the girl in this. You watch it till the end, the home side will get the girl and they’ll wander off into the sunset. I’m not hearing that noise from down there.

Alex Campean:

I think that you are taking the value bit here.

Flash:

No, you know me, I’m not square.

Alex Campean:

It’s a lot of respect for this pick, right? You have my respect for this pick. Of course, for many others but especially for this one at +420. Yes, I believe that Wolfsburg got way overpriced given the form of Bayern, not also of Wolfsburg. Right?

Flash:

Yeah, exactly.

Alex Campean:

But I think that this is the click that will happen, pre-Champions League. They must get back on winning because if they want… After that they should be scared, right? I think that Wolfsburg scores, yeah, I hope so. But I think that this is a one way ticket right now for Bayern. Stay there, at least remain with that lead in the standings, but I think that they will brush with Wolfsburg all over the floor.

Flash:

It’s going to be a great watch because it’s the anticipation. This game is one of those, anticipate. You know like when they walk out onto the pitch, I’m already sitting in my chair, I will turn it up, there’ll be no other noise and it will be… All the other games I have going on at the time will be muted. I will see them but on the big one, this is it because I’ll be anticipating. And I know what Kev is saying because it’s one of those, whenever anyone challenges Bayern or their nearest rival in the league, Bayern are 3-nil up in 20 minutes and you’re like, “It’s all over.”

Kevin Matchard:

That’s it.

Flash:

It’s like they’ve done you again.

Alex Campean:

Exactly. You move the channel. Oh, Netflix please next.

Flash:

No, I don’t know about Netflix. I’ve still got 28 games to watch and that’s before we go on to the other sports. Listen, let’s have a little look at the official picks because this is going to be absolutely brilliant. I expect this to be like a heavyweight, toe-to-toe because of the fear factor is not at its high. I think they think that Bayern are over the top. So we’ve got Bayern and over two-and-a-half, a +110. For me, Wolfsburg moneyline, +420. Slippy toast, he says, “Me and Flash are riding the train.” Slippy, it’s Flash and I, okay? Just so that you know. Got to have a bit of English in there as well. We have mathematics in here, we have general knowledge, we have geography and now we’re going to have to have a little bit of English.

Okay, let’s have… Right, first of all, we’re going to go on to the Q&A, but before we do the Q&A, I’d like to remind you and ask you, I have not seen… Oh, it might come up tomorrow. We need 12 more subscribers. Are you going to be one of them 12 to get me to 12,000? Way, way ahead of schedule. And also, if you ring the bell then we will notify you, you’ll never miss any content again. Which is a bonus because we got Europa League and Champions League joining the four major leagues and if you don’t agree with the four major leagues, then you know what you’re talking about because it is La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and the Premier League.

Also, if you’re on social media, make sure you follow @BetUSTV, and if you’ve got your own tips or picks, then copy in @BetUSTV so we can have a little look because there might be a little expert out there. I’ve not seen any evidence of that so far from any of you in the chat, but I’m sure that you think you’re an expert, Mitch.

Okay, let’s have a little look. Augsburg today, yellow cards. Kev, why are you not doing Friday Night Game?

Kevin Matchard:

They spread them out. It’s not always me. Most of the time it’s me, it’s not always me.

Flash:

But it should be.

Kevin Matchard:

It’s the excellent Chris Sharples tonight, so you’ll be in good hands.

Flash:

You’re so nice. Kev, do you ever slag anyone off?

Kevin Matchard:

No, no. no.

Flash:

See, you got to stop that. You got to start that behavior, you know what I mean? You’ve got to start saying bad things. Although about Derek Ray here, you’re taking a leaf out of his book because he is the nicest man in the West as well.

Kevin Matchard:

Yes, that’s true. That’s true.

Flash:

You are. You’re like a goalkeeping club. That’s what you lot are. You’re like goalkeeping union.

Kevin Matchard:

Yeah, that’s it. That’s it. We all back each other up. Augsburg yellow cards, was that the question?

Flash:

Oh, I don’t know. Did you not read it? Augsburg today. Yeah, it came up. It came up on the screen. Here it is.

Kevin Matchard:

There you go. Can’t do my diary and do this at the same time. Yeah, actually, yeah because I think what will happen here actually is that Leverkusen will have plenty of the ball. If you look at what Leverkusen are trying to do under Xabi Alonso, they are trying to play slick one-two touch passing and it is working actually, by and large. Obviously, they got done by Dortmund last week, but in general, they look as if they’re heading in the right direction. Augsburg, Friday night in front of their own fans. It’s not one of the iconic stadiums in Germany, but it’s not an easy place to go, especially at night, and I do think they’ll fly into them. Enrico Maaben wants to play, he wants to play good football but he wants to be aggressive as well. So yeah, I don’t think that’s a bad shout at all.

Flash:

Okay, let’s have a little look here. Da, da, da. Baracus says he’s got question for Flash… Sorry, for Kev. So let’s find one for Alex. Dortmund-Freiburg, Alex, you are a Dortmund fan so you can be totally biased. Do you think the streak for Dortmund continues at home to Freiburg?

Alex Campean:

I left this game alone for a reason.

Flash:

Yeah, and that’s what alarms people. That’s what alarms people.

Alex Campean:

I don’t know. I’m still scared about this Dortmund performance. Yes, they’re winning games but they’re doing in a risky way. I love more the fact that someone on the chat said about you obviously, because you are the number one presenter all over the place, said that not only soccer picks but also education material on a soccer channel. But I wanted to take it further and say that a soccer pick should be educated in school. We should start doing that.

Flash:

You can’t, because they have to be over 18. Listen, [inaudible 00:54:12].

Kevin Matchard:

It has to be at university.

Alex Campean:

University. Okay, perfect. University.

Flash:

It will have to be at uni, Yes. Well then, but there is actually something like that. It doesn’t come under picks.

Alex Campean:

Really?

Flash:

No, it comes under analysis data or statistics. Analyst data because my son’s just qualified for Mercer.

Alex Campean:

It’s true, but you know what opinion I have for the people that are doing their picks after watching the last five years of head-to-heads between the two teams.

Flash:

Listen, it’s one of those. Okay. Barakat, go on in, question for Kev. Thoughts on Dortmund, please Kev?

Kevin Matchard:

Thoughts are you can’t trust them at odds on. It’s as simple as that really. I think they’ve been some good things. I think they’ve been some bad things. I think it’s very easy to be distracted by the fact they’ve won all three games. They’ve won two of them with very late goals from Gio Reyna, and all is not quite well there, I don’t think. There are a lot of big questions there. Can Youssoufa Moukoko really kick on after signing that new contract? Because I think you often find this, especially with young players, once they get a big new deal, can they then push on and go again? I’m not saying he won’t, I’m not saying he can’t, but that is a question right now.

You’ve got guys like Rapha Guerrero, Mahmoud Dahoud who are out of contract at the end of the season, what’s the situation going to be with them? And I think there’s a lot of uncertainty right now. There’s a lot of talk about Marco Reus, he’s been linked with the move to RB Leipzig, so there’s been a lot of talk about that recently. We don’t know what’s happening with Jude Bellingham, although I think his performances have been exceptional considering the pressure he is under and considering all the talk about his form.

Flash:

Where would you go, Kev? If you was him, where would you go?

Kevin Matchard:

Oh, I’m a Liverpool fan so I go Liverpool, wouldn’t I?

Flash:

Alex where would you go?

Alex Campean:

The same.

Flash:

I’d go Real Madrid.

Kevin Matchard:

Yeah, but I think with Real, look you’re absolutely right, there’s an opportunity there. Yeah, look, Real Madrid’s a great club and they’re going to compete for trophies.

Flash:

You’ve got Kroos and you’ve got Modric just about to make way. So it’s almost like here we go, [inaudible 00:56:14].

Kevin Matchard:

Yeah. You’ve got Tchouameni and Camavinga, and you’ve got Valverde.

Flash:

But they’re going in the same class as Bellingham in my eyes. I’ve gone goosebumpy. Sorry about that.

Kevin Matchard:

The one thing I would say from people I’ve spoken to who are close to this, Jude knows he’s got time.

Flash:

Yeah.

Kevin Matchard:

So whatever he does, he knows he’s got an opportunity to get those experiences in down the track. So he could join Real Madrid, they’re absolutely part of that race. Liverpool are absolutely part of that race, and so are other clubs too. I think his family have helped him very much in terms of managing his career and I think whatever he’ll do, he’ll think it through. It won’t just be about who offers the most money, I’m pretty sure about that. I’m pretty sure it won’t be about that.

Flash:

Because you know that La Liga at the moment is an absolute… Well, it’s like a pit. It’s like a… Where do they put all the trash? You know when all the bin vans go and they basically-

Kevin Matchard:

Dumpster.

Flash:

Sorry?

Alex Campean:

Dumpster, yeah.

Kevin Matchard:

The dumpster.

Flash:

Yeah, basically where all the rubbish is. That’s where La Liga is at the moment. You’ve got three sides. You’ve got Sociedad, Madrid and Barcelona, and then the rest, forget it. So he could go there and not have that week in, week out intensity and burn himself out and be an absolute star. And also, he’s got his two little mates, Pedri and Gavi, just obviously is his main rivals. So you could have the three best young players in the world in the same league. I think he’s an absolute star, and Musiala as well.

Okay, let’s have a little look at the best bets because there’s a little surprise coming for you. There it is. It’s yellow and I did hold it back. It’s Dortmund moneyline and Frankfurt moneyline, and it’s +148, which I thought was very, very good. So I put two units on it so it becomes a banker. Union and Mainz, first half draw, +100. Wolfsburg moneyline, +420. But make sure you follow @BetUSTV because if they go 1-nil up, I may well give you some alternative angles.

Leipzig team total, over one-and-a-half at plus… Sorry, -130 for Alex. Frankfurt, half-time/full-time at +120. Union team total, over one-and-a-half at +120. Bochum-Hoffenheim, the Alex Classic, both teams to score and over two-and-a-half at -110. And Bayern and over two-and-a-half at +110. Kevin, Union to score twice minimum at +120. Bochum, PK +110. If you don’t know what PK is, it’s draw no bet. Which means if it’s a draw, it’s no bet.

Gladbach-Schalke, we’ve got Hofmann, anytime goalscorer, +175. And Stuttgart-Bremen, we’ve got Guirassy at anytime goalscorer at +210. Make sure everyone in the chat, if you do have and you are on social media, please copy us in with some of your picks because I don’t want to see next week, “Oh, I had this and I had that.” If I don’t see it, you didn’t have it. Kev, have a great weekend. Only one game this weekend or is it only one game in the Bundesliga?

Kevin Matchard:

Only one game, but I am doing the show on talkSPORT on Sunday night, wrapping up all the European action.

Alex Campean:

Nice.

Flash:

Go on then. Loving it, loving it.

Alex Campean:

[inaudible 00:59:29].

Flash:

Sorry? With Dan Petrescu?

Alex Campean:

The next Dan Petrescu that is the wrapping up the shows.

Flash:

FT says he is surprised no one took Leverkusen moneyline. I didn’t think there was value to be honest. Did you?

Kevin Matchard:

No.

Alex Campean:

Leverkusen moneyline, [inaudible 00:59:47]

Flash:

And Friday night game away in Augsburg?

Kevin Matchard:

No.

Flash:

Yeah, not for me. I think it might be a bit of a battle though. So anyway, listen, Kev, have a great weekend, Alex, brilliant. Let’s add to the 28 units. From everyone at BetUS, may all your bets be winners. Remember, we’re one day closer to the Champions League and Europa League joining us here @betus.com. You take care.