Bundesliga Picks Matchday 23 | Odds, Predictions & Free Tips

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Welcome to the BetUS Soccer Channel, I’m Flash. It’s Bundesliga Show, it’s number 23, which is a massive weekend for a few of the sides because it could be make or break and it could be, don’t set your sights too high. But first of all, we’re America’s favorite sportsbook, so I’d like you to subscribe and also I’d like you to ring the bell so we can notify you. And then we’ll be not notifying you just for me to be late, I’m so sorry about that. Technical issues at the last minute wanted to throw me, but there’s a little bit of a compensation if you type in betustv.com/join or betustv.com/fifty, they’re separate and then one of them gives you a $50 free bet with terms and conditions obviously applying.

There’ll be records, there’ll be obviously chat from you which I hope, but we’ve got eight games to cover and obviously if I’ve got eight games, I need the absolute masters and I’ve got the voice of world soccer who just goes from strength to strength and also we’ve got @AlexClassicTips who has a saying named after him, so he’s obviously the high echelons of the Bundesliga. But first of all, Kev, I’m going to come to you and we’re going to have to be quick because obviously one of the games we’re going to cover is going to kick off very, very soon. But the big, big game in Germany this weekend could end or bring this title race to another level.

Kevin Hatchard:

Well, I think if you look at Dortmund-Leipzig tonight, I think it is enormous for both clubs, obviously. Dortmund are trying to maintain this winning run they’ve been on, they’ve won all of their nine competitive games in 2023. If they could take that to 10 by beating Leipzig, then there really will be belief that they can push Bayern all the way. I think a defeat would probably push Leipzig right to the edge of being out of the title race I think, so I think it’s an enormous game for both of them really. If Leipzig win, then it suddenly puts down a marker for them. And I do think it’s been fascinating that you’ve got these teams. I know we talk about Union, I know we talk about Freiburg, I do think it’s going to be about qualifying for the Champions League for them, trying to maintain the top four finish. It’s really down to Bayern, Leipzig and Dortmund. I’m lucky enough to be commentating on all of them this weekend and I think it’s good for the league to have Dortmund and Bayern level on points with 12 match days to go, that’s great.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah. Alex, what’d you think because obviously your team is Dortmund? How do you think they’re going to approach this? The draw is obviously, I think going to suit them, so does that mean we’re going to see more of an attacking intent from the visitors?

Alex Campean:

Yeah, it will be a fascinating game, obviously everyone should watch it. It’s very strange because Dortmund, I think that they lost their last three meeting with Leipzig, but in fact, they are unbeaten in their last 32 home games on a Friday. I don’t know if-

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Like host Bundesliga sides on a Friday? I can’t remember the last time a team got beat on a Friday night.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, like last Friday, I think that someone got beat but it’s 32 games at home on a Friday, this tells you enough. Okay, we have the yellow-black wall, Dortmund are at home, we know how good they were at home all season long, only one defeat, but also Leipzig, I think that since Marco Rose took a charge here, they have won more points than even Bayern Munich. So I think that this will be an entertaining game. If Dortmund wins, I think that we should be prepared to see another champion. I’m not saying that we will, but we should be prepared because this is unbelievable run of form. I trust them, they are high spirit, they are controlling games, even without Adeyemi that will miss for the next two weeks or so, I think that they are well-prepared. No other injury issues right now for Dortmund. Marco Reus is also back. Absolutely great to have him fully fit and ready to win another game. So I think that this is the game of the round because Bayern will definitely destroy Stuttgart.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, you said run a form, let’s have a little look at the records because I tell you what, no one’s running hotter than us three to be honest. Let’s all give ourselves a little pat on the back. There we are, 34.52. Kev has a little downtime, I cover him. I have a bad time, Alex covers both of us and Kev has been obviously absolutely sizzling all season long. Look at that, 34.52, puts all the other leagues to shame. I think it just goes to show that we can actually trust our judgment with these teams and they go out and obviously, it’s been helped when Kev just picks out goalscorers like he’s taking toast out of a toaster.

All right, first game up, let’s just crack on, let’s not mess about. Chat, obviously Sam, Jonathan, Barca man, we’ve got Mitch in now, enjoy this one because it kicks off in a few hours so let’s get this underway. Dortmund at home, +125 tells you everything. Leipzig at +205. The draw is a runner I suppose at +265, but the over three at +105, Kev, I think this game would have to go bananas to go over three. I think Leipzig want to keep it close.

Kevin Hatchard:

Depends which way the game goes. I mean if you look at both teams, I think they’re both best in transitional moments when the game breaks open. I think Dortmund played in a very mature way towards the end of that Hoffenheim game last weekend, ran the ball into the corners, took time off the clock. They should have had the game wrapped up by then, but Oliver Baumann had an unbelievable game, the Hoffenheim goalkeeper. So I do think there’ll be goals in this. I certainly wouldn’t put anybody off, backing over three at +105, I think that’s absolutely fine. But for me it’s about Dortmund scoring a couple of goals here.

Alex mentioned Marco Reus, he’s been playing well for the last couple of games. Got a goal and an assist against Hertha in the last home game, he got the assist for the winning goal last weekend, so he’s fit and firing. Julian Brandt scored in his last four games in the Bundesliga. He’s looking really good. Jamie Bynoe-Gittens is playing well. So you got lots of options, lots of ways they can hurt Leipzig. And equally, Christopher Nkunku we think will be back in the starting lineup for Leipzig. So in general, I think we’ll see goals and I’m happy to back Dortmund to score a couple of them.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Well that’s -110. Alex, obviously you know Leipzig are involved, I cannot get involved in it and then to throw more water on my fire, they’re away from home on a Friday. My Bible always says go with a home side on a Friday regardless because 9 times out of 10, it’s amazing, I mean last week we went with it again, Mainz beat Gladbach 4-0, an absolute cantor. Now all of a sudden we’ve got Leipzig against… I hope they buck the trend. I’m not going to be biased here, I’m just going to say I hope Leipzig buck the trend.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, let’s not forget also about this important match that Dortmund will take on Chelsea next week in the Champions League. I think that they will prioritize of course the league right now because they have a great chance to maintain the balance there with the pressure on Bayern Munich. Nkunku, I think that he will start and he loves playing against Dortmund. Last time I think that he scored and assisted also in the 2-1 win. Dortmund at home, and in 2023 in general, are absolutely unbelievable. I don’t know, this should be a high scoring affair. Five of the last six matches between the two sides had both team to score and over 2.5 between them. So I think that the Alex Classic is the way to go here.

In terms of who will win, yes, the value is on Dortmund, but I think that anyone can win this game, even a 2-2 draw might happen. So I think that you should stick with the goals market, you should stick with Dortmund to score twice or if you believe that Leipzig scores twice, do it that way. But let me tell you one thing, Dortmund improved a lot at the back lately, so they’re not so bad in the last two, three years. The reason why this is happening is because they have most of their players back from injury and they have almost no injury issues.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, I’d say the visitors are sharper than the home side. The home side just have that way of finding and capitalizing when the chance arises. I mean they’ve got quality, Dortmund, but I would say that Leipzig are sharper. The problem with Leipzig, oh, honest to God, I don’t think there’s anything to choose between them and that’s why you’re getting +125 for the home side. +125 Leipzig to score twice. Do not rule out the draw at +265. I wonder if this will be one of those where they come straight out the traps or whether they feel each other out. Kev, I think you’ve got an absolute monster game here that you are going to enjoy and I’m going to enjoy listening to you as well because I’ve got new channels and your voice keeps popping up.

Okay, let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks. As you know I leave them alone. So I’ve got Leipzig to finish second in the league already. So it’s Dortmund, team total over 1 1/2 for the voice at -110 and both teams score and over 2 1/2 at -120 for Alex, so it’s the Alex Classic for the Alex Classic. Let’s move on to game number two of eight. Now what do I do here? Gladbach, no, thank you at +145. Freiburg, no, thank you at +175. Both teams to score and over maybe because that means that the over 2 1/2 is -135, Alex. The draw is at +260. I would probably go with Gladbach to score twice at +115. No, that does not mean that they win the game because I don’t like either of these two.

Alex Campean:

First of all, I want to congratulate you on Mainz moneyline last time out against Gladbach. That was the proper one. 4-0, absolutely no trouble there. You said that you don’t trust Gladbach and you are betting against them and Mainz made you money. And it’s crazy, like we talked about Gladbach. After beating Bayern, lost 4-0 away to Mainz, so how can trust this kind of a team? I don’t know what to make of them, I don’t know how to approach their games, so I will gladly stay off this Gladbach train for the rest of the season because we don’t know what to expect. But I think that Kevin has a brilliant take on this because you don’t know what to expect from both sides in terms of who will win it, how many goals we’ll see, so he went for value again. Maybe he sent his email to the family members like you like to say.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, when these two set up, Kev, this is one of those where if I’m Freiburg, I’m making sure I defend deep, I frustrate and I just be patient. But the thing is with Gladbach, they’re so powerful and so strong, but they’re also so unreliable and may I say, they’re a little bit immature.

Kevin Hatchard:

Well, I think it’s a big debate at the moment around the Gladbach camp about how they can beat Bayern and then go and get hammered by Mainz and they were atrocious away-

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Oh, they were [inaudible 00:11:55] the joke.

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah, they were very, very poor, made their own problems. If you look at the first goal, it’s a casual pass from the goalkeeper, invites pressure and then they don’t track the run and they were making that kind of mistake all night long. However, if you look at their home form, that’s where they’ve done most of their best work and Jonas Hofmann has been one of the most consistent players and it’s not just this season, it’s the last three seasons including this one that he’s been scoring goals on a regular basis, making goals on a regular basis. He was involved in all three of the goals against Bayern couple of weeks ago and I see no reason why he won’t cause Freiburg some problems. If you look at Freiburg away from home, they’re not strong as they are in the Black Forest, they give away goals rather cheaply at times and I do think Hofmann’s pace and his movement can cause them all kinds of issues. So the price that he is to score at any time, I think that’s absolutely worth a bet.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, because you can’t trust the player and Thuram obviously, I don’t know, I don’t understand the-

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Or Kone, let’s talk about him by the way because he’s getting away with absolute murder. He’s one of those that don’t track anybody and only wants to play when he’s on the ball. And he looks to me as if he has got his head turned elsewhere and he’s just buying time because all of this-

Kevin Hatchard:

I’m not sure that’s entirely fair, to be honest.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Oh, it is Kev, it is. I watch Gladbach more intently and I… spiteful.

Kevin Hatchard:

But Jude Bellingham is the only player in the whole league who’s won more challenges than he has.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, because normally his challenges are after his second touch, his first touch is out of his feet and then it’s so bad that he then… it’s touch and tackle. I’m not having Kone, I’m not having anything to do with Gladbach, you know that, so even if you’re right, I have to argue for argument’s sake. You know that.

Kevin Hatchard:

Fair enough.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

I’m happy to admit that. I’m happy to admit I’m blinded by them just being a complete joke. Sorry to interrupt you, Alex.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, so you can’t trust them at all. Against Mainz, I was shocked to see Marcus Thuram performance after he came from the bench. I even wrote on Twitter that it’s like he’s swimming, he’s not playing football. I don’t know, he was like, “I don’t want to play, why you are doing this to me right now?” because it was already 3-0 and I was expecting one goal from Gladbach because I had the both teams to score and over 2.5. So I said, “Okay, 3-0. Now they should score at least one because Mainz will not press anymore.” But nothing, so I’m done with Gladbach.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, okay. Claudio, that’s why you’re here. Good, keep it going. And by the way, you’re saying about records don’t lie, your record is absolutely stuck. You’re just stuck, change the record man. Get yourself a personality. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official pick. There it is, Hofmann anytime scorer at +275 for myself and Alex. We don’t really care for this game [inaudible 00:14:57] other than maybe just cheering on Hofmann. Not even maybe, just cheer on Hofmann.

Okay, let’s move on to game number three because I fancy, I’m gone for greed here, it’s Mainz at home, -110 is good enough for a lot of people. Hoffenheim at +285. I told you they were trying to change their DNA and they’ve got away with absolute murder in defeat. Draw +280, the under/over is set at three and the over is at +115. Okay, let’s break this down. Kev, we’ve got Hoffenheim, we’ve them trying to defend and they’re not doing a good job even though their keeper is having 11 out of 10 weeks. They’ve lost something in attack. I mean they had like 11 or 12 corners last week and really, they were just huffing and puffing against a Mainz side at home, the -110 will be attracted to a lot of people.

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah, Hoffenheim are a strange one. I’ve done a couple of their games since Pellegrino Matarazzo took charge. There’s definitely been an improvement. I think they had decent spells against Dortmund. Gregor Kobel made some important saves in that game. As you say, Oliver Baumann was outstanding for Hoffenheim as well. They just genuinely seemed to have lost a lot of confidence and that can happen to players. You got to remember, this is a Hoffenheim team that thought it was going to be pushing for Europe, thought that it was going to be a top half team and suddenly, they’re in a relegation battle and it’s quite a big shift psychologically to suddenly have to deal with that. So they are pushing, they are trying, I don’t think Matarazzo has lost them by any stretch of the imagination. But this is really a bet pro Mainz’s attacking ability and against Hoffenheim’s defensive record which has been atrocious, especially away from home.

It’s a team news one this really for me. I’m interested in Karim Onisiwo and whether he can score for Mainz, but it’s going to be about whether that knee injury is going to render him a substitute, which obviously would make us think twice. But if he’s in that starting 11, he’s the kind of player whose pace can really stretch Hoffenheim, cause a problem and he’s been scoring goals in 2023, especially at home. Got a hat trick against Bochum recently, so I think he’s a player that can do real damage if he’s 100% fit.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, Kev, let’s just keep on about Hoffenheim here because they are trying to change their DNA, but what I find is I think they’re between two stalls because he’s asking them to be more compact, he’s asking them to engage in certain areas, but they ball watch, they mark space. And then with runners, it’s almost like I’m a midfield runner and someone goes, I’m expecting my man to pick him up when he’s got someone already, so I’ve got to go. I mean last week, Dortmund had 14 chances on goal, for their visitors. They were the visitors and had 14. I mean if you give away seven chances like that, they had double that. Against a Mainz side who come and just tread all over you, I just can only see a home win here.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, it’s funny because Mainz are attacking more than Dortmund, if you know what I mean. So Mainz are always on the front foot, especially when they’re playing at home. Dortmund, they smelled blood and they went all in. This is why Hoffenheim were very lucky to allow just one goal there, like you said, 14 shots on target, 23 goal attempts. Yeah, Hoffenheim could have scored also but the impression is that their lack of defensive consistency will hunt them down. I think that they will save themselves till the end because I think that there are other teams worse than them, like Stuttgart for example, who will have another bad game against the Bayern because I really think that Bayern will destroy them here.

I think that Hoffenheim will return home empty-handed. Mainz are brilliant in the attack. I love their approach, always on the front foot, always press high and Hoffenheim cannot defend. I think that their objective should be right now to win their home games and against a Mainz team in such a great form right now, I don’t think that… yeah, probably they will score, so we’re even thinking at over three goals. I was tempted to go over 1.5 goals team total for Mainz, but I’m not at -130. I still believe that -110 has a great value in my opinion, Mainz moneyline.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

I went to the alternate line because the other one about the Hoffenheim team, there was over 20 corners at home, which means they’ve got no control on the game. They go to and Mainz team who will jump all over. I think that Hoffenheim and Gladbach, you put them and say, “I don’t expect Mainz to roll over and win 4-0 again.” But if you go to the alternate line and go for Mainz at -1, I think and let me just have a look at this because I know I did it, it’s +170. So basically I’m getting a free hit, I think Mainz win the game. So then I’ve got Mainz -1. I’ve got this game being 2-0, 3-1, so again you could go over, you could go both teams score, but I think that Mainz just jump all over Hoffenheim and they win a minimum of 2-0.

Let’s have a little look at the official picks because again, this is the home team, obviously hoping, not let us down. Mainz at -1 for me at +170. I think it’s just a free hit. Mainz moneyline at -110 for Alex and Onisiwo, anytime scorer at +190. Remember if he doesn’t start, the bet is voided. Let’s move on to another game which basically, I read exactly the same as this one. It’s Union on versus Koln. Union -110. I think we can give them a little bit of a pass on last week after playing so many games in so many days, against a Koln side who are not the same Koln side that you see at home and that’s why you’re getting +345. The draw is at +235. Koln not to score is +120, Alex. I see Union returning to winning ways because I think they’re a little bit refreshed, regrouped and they go again.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, refresh, regrouped. Disappointing result against Bayern Munich. I was expecting a home win to be honest and I’m very happy for the -1.5 that Kevin speak from last week, but I was expecting a little bit more. And if you remember, we talked about this problem of them having to play every three days in the European competitions because this is the first time in their history that they’re playing a knockout stage of a European Cup. And they will do it again next week against another Union side, Union Royale Saint-Gilloise, if I pronounced it correct, Kev, maybe you can [inaudible 00:22:01].

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah, very good.

Alex Campean:

But they’re playing at home, normally they should return to winning ways against a side that, to be honest, I don’t know, they’re not a type of Gladbach, but still a Koln side, horrendous on the road. Just one win on the road all season long, 24 goals allowed in 11 away matches this season. So I think that the value is still on Union, but I don’t know, something tells me to stay off this game.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Okay. Kev, Union-Koln, I think there’s a bit of a gap to be honest, especially with Koln’s away form and Union trying to get back to winning ways.

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah, I’m not mega happy about the price, -110, it doesn’t get me that excited. I think Union, a really tricky position now because Alex is absolutely right, if you’ve dumped Ajax out of the Europa League and you’ve got an Union Saint-Gilloise team that caused them problems actually in the group stage if you remember, they actually faced each other in the group stage of the Europa League, then it’s very tempting obviously to wonder which he should prioritize. I think in the end, he’ll rotate as he always does. I’m not massively surprised as you know, what happened against Bayern, I expected that. I thought Bayern would flex their muscles and that’s exactly what they did. And I think we do have to remember that Union are way ahead of schedule, way ahead of where we should have expected them to be.

The bet that does stand out to me actually, that I’m really tempted at but I don’t do -140s as you know, but over two, I think the goal line is slightly wrong. I think if you look at Union, a lot of their games tend to go over 2 1/2, so I’m a little bit surprised to see the goal line set so low. Koln are one of the few teams in the league that can match Union in terms of effort and in terms of running and that’s what they will try to do, they’ll try to make this a battle. So it’s a really awkward one. Union’s home record, it makes perfect sense to back them, but it’s just not one for me.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, and I again-

Alex Campean:

Also-

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Go on, Alex.

Alex Campean:

Go. Also very important to know that I really know this player, he played in the Romanian league, Laidouni. I think that he’s a very talented player. They took him in the January transfer market, he played in Romania for four years ago and good transfer for Union. Now, I can’t wait to see the type of game that… how he will think, he’ll play Becker and Jordan this weekend or he will play Becker and Jordan in the attacking line next week against Union Royale. So it’s very important to see the starting lineup before placing your bet, but it stands that over two, so if you’re going over two, if you have two goals it’s a push, if you go have three goals it’s a win. So I don’t think that we should see here less than two goals.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

No, I mean I think the way to go is Union team total to score twice at +115 and the reason it’s a two is because they can’t guarantee that Koln are going to contribute. But two, I think we see two, I think it’s a push worst case scenario and it also brings in the 2-0, which I saw someone in the chat, that Union win to nil at +190 because remember, it’s all about Union just getting back on track. Very, very good side at home, Koln, not so good away from home. And I did go to the alternative market again, let’s have a look at this for a price. I cannot believe this, I think this is the best push that I can get away with because I’ve gone with Union -1 at +180. I’ve got this 2-0 and maybe even 3-0.

And Kev obviously endorses the over two, I see two minimum. But if you want to go with two, you go with Union Berlin to score twice at +115. Okay, let’s move on because this game, I think we could all three of us speak all day long and not get this right, Bochum +135, host Schalke at +200. Now why is this game not set at two. Over 2 1/2 is at -115, under 2 1/2 is at -105. Bochum at -150 not to score twice and Schalke are -210 not to score twice. Every scores are available here. I mean Schalke at +200, Kev. They’ve come from +215, money coming from the visitors.

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah, that’s right. They have looked pretty good actually in the last few weeks. They had four 0-0 draws in a row, beat Stuttgart last weekend. I thought they deserved to be Stuttgart, thought they played well. And what’s really tricky about this game is the emotional factor because Thomas Reis is the Schalke boss, he was the Bochum coach up until September when he was dismissed and so he brings the Schalke team to Bochum in decent form. It’s a derby as well which makes it more awkward because it’s a Ruhr clash, so you’re never quite sure what that’s going to bring. So this is a really tricky one to get right. I think if you knew nothing about the two teams and you looked at Bochum’s home record, you’d be tempted to go for Bochum. But I think there’s a lot riding on this for Schalke. I think they’ve played really well in the last few weeks and the coach will be as determined as you can be. So I think this is a very awkward game to get right.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, I mean it’s one of those where Schalke are so together and it’s grown. Alex, it’s because they’ve had them clean sheets on the trots and now they’re thinking, “Okay,” and there’s nothing better than the manager setting you up in a certain manner and it working. And then all of a sudden, it gives them that freedom to actually then go, “Oh okay, we’re quite solid at the back,” so the trust, it spreads. It spreads in a good way throughout the team and now they’re going up against a Bochum side who, I’m just wondering if 0-0 is on the cards here at +245. But I know you’re going to argue against it and I think you’re right to.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, this is the final for me, this is a six pointer for the two teams. 17th and 18th, last two places, automatic relegation for both of them, not even in the contention for a playoff spot, but the line is very thin between all of them. From 14th, Hertha with 20 points till Schalke with 16 points. Five teams are fighting to avoid relegation and I think that this is a six pointer and given Schalke’s improvement over the last two months and also Bochum’s home record at home, okay, you will say that they lost to Freiburg, but we know we’ve seen what happened in that match and how they lost to Freiburg. I still think that they have quality to score and I think that to win three points against one of your direct opponents for relegation is more important than every single match from now till the end of the season.

So that will give them not only confidence, but a level of trust that they need, both teams. Of course Schalke are last but are in better form, if I can say that, than Bochum right now. And exactly the value is on Schalke, but I’m expecting a tough opposition from Bochum at home. Yeah, Schalke defensively, they’re very organized lately, but they had also some luck in some of their matches that they kept a clean sheet, not to allow a goal and they should have allowed at least one. I think that this will be one of the most entertaining matches. I even think that 2-2 is on the cards here and I will put some beer money on a 2-2 correct score.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, I mean the draw is definitely a runner, regardless of the amount of goals at +245, Kev.

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah. I think it’s a decent price. I mean as you know, draws are not something that draws me in. I just think this is a really tough game. I could see anything here to be honest. I mean people who look at cards markets, that’s a great thing to look at. I think we’ll see plenty of cards here, I think we’ll see plenty of aggression, think fans will add to that-

Alex Campean:

Over four, -114? Over four cards, -114?

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah, I think that’s a decent bet. I think actually if you’re going to go for a bet here, that might be the way to go.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Okay. Do you think Schalke can get the win though?

Kevin Hatchard:

The can, absolutely they can. Bochum, I’ve said all along, I think it’s the weakest squad in the division. I still believe that. I think in terms of quality, in terms of experience, I think it’s a poor squad. They’ve had guys like Philipp Hofmann play well recently and the coach, I think he’s done a good job. I think Thomas Letsch has gone in there, he’s revitalized them, he’s got the results at home that they needed, but in the last few weeks they’ve not looked great. If I had to back one team to win, then Schalke would be the team that I’d back.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Maybe you could have Schalke, pick’em which is the same as draw no bet at +120. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. If you are getting involved in this game, then as a team member, I’m going to only be cheering on Alex because it’s both teams to score and over 2 1/2 at +115. The over 2 1/2 goals on their own is -115. So there’s a 30 cent switch there or increase in the potential. First half under 0.5 goals. Funny that because I actually wrote down Bochum-Schalke, draw half-time at +110, could be 0-0, could be 1-1. I favor the 0-0, maybe over the whole 90 minutes, but again, it could be absolutely anything.

Okay, let’s move on here because this puzzles me, this next game, because we’ve got Stuttgart are massive at +575, hosting Bayern at -240. Bayern -1 1/2 is a +105 obviously, Kev, last week and we did say, and I don’t know why we all didn’t follow him in even though we said it’s the best bet on the cards and they duly obliged. The draw is a non-runner for me at +420. Kev, Bayern away at Stuttgart, -1 1/2 now at plus money, is this like where we’re trying to close the stable door after the horse has bolted?

Kevin Hatchard:

Yes, tempting and Stuttgart don’t have Borna Sosa so that’s important. I think they’ve got problems in both fullback positions actually. And you would think that this would be a game where Bayern would be able to win by a couple of goals. The only thing I think that would drag you away from that is the idea they’ve got Paris in midweek and that’s the season defining game for them. I think you look at goalscorers here to be honest and there’s loads you could pick from. I think Kingsley Coman is in brilliant form, Jamal Musiala, thought Thomas Muller looked ever so good last week.

So it’s one of those I think that maybe if you’re not going to go for the Bayern -1 1/2 at plus money, I think you maybe see what the team looks like and you pick whoever your favorite goalscorer is on the Bayern side because I think there will get a couple of goals here and I think they’ve got a very, very good chance of winning the game. And actually, funnily enough, if Dortmund win tonight, I actually think that gives Bayern more of a chance of winning because I think they need that pressure, I think that’s what really brings the best out of them. And Thomas Muller actually talked about that after the Union game. He said, “The fact that Dortmund went three points ahead, that got us going.” And so I think that could be the case again this weekend.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, I love it when Bayern have a rival and they’re actually looking them in the eyes and playing against them because it’s unbelievable the amount of times they scored two or three in the first half, Alex, and just put it to bed. It’s almost like the big brother slapping the little brother and say, “Listen, you’re not big enough yet,” bang and they’re just frightening. And we’ve said we’ve seen that movie so many times and yet we let the -1 1/2 slip last week when you and I should both have collected.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, the funny thing, if I was the Bundesliga board, I would put both games at the same time on any given day, on a Saturday for example. Of course that the schedule have been released a long time ago, but normally if you come up at this stage of the season and you have two teams equal on points at the top of the table, you should put their games at the same time on a Saturday or a Sunday. Of course it’s not happening, but it’s very important-

Kevin Hatchard:

Wouldn’t put you in charge of a TV channel, Alex.

Alex Campean:

Exactly. Yes [inaudible 00:35:04].

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah. But also let me just come in here about-

Kevin Hatchard:

[inaudible 00:35:05] TV channel.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Let me just come in because I actually wrote this in my notes and said they’ve been so impressive, the Bundesliga, obviously the whole association, German football, because they give their teams the best opportunity to succeed in Europe. We know that Dortmund and Leipzig-

Alex Campean:

Absolutely.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

… they play them on a Friday night, they give them an extra two days. They’re so supportive and sometimes, they even move the game.

Alex Campean:

Exactly. I really hope that Dortmund wins tonight, also from a fan point of view, also from my banker of the week point of view, because Dortmund will help me with the bet definitely. Not that the Bayern doesn’t have the quality to destroy Stuttgart without Dortmund winning, but it’s important for an extra boost for Bayern’s players because as Kev said, they have an important match next week against Paris Saint-Germain and let’s see what Nagelsmann will do with the starting lineup. But still, even the players from the bench, they have so much quality, they have so much firepower and given Stuttgart’s recent run of form, I think that the Dortmund should score at least three against them and concede a maximum of one goal. Even though Stuttgart managed to keep Bayern to a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture, basically they scored twice in the last two head-to-heads against Bayern, but I really think that Bayern should have enough. It’s that part of the season when you want to put points between you and your follower, no matter what, so it is what it is.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks because it alarms me. There’s alarm bells going off because for me, for Alex and I, -1.5 for Bayern at +105. The man who did it last week has not done it this week. So all of a sudden I’m like, “Okay, why has he not done that?” But okay, well listen, we’ve paid our money, we’ll take our chance at Bayern -1 1/2 at +105. I think someone even said, “Yeah, I think win to nil is a possibility at -175.” I don’t think it’s a 0-0 so you’d probably go that way rather than Stuttgart not to score and they were at +155.

Let’s move on to this next game because again, I think we love getting our teeth into these games, Leverkusen -185. Parlay piece maybe Hertha at +470. I see this as a home win, maybe half-time/full-time, the draw at +345. Leverkusen to score twice is -170, so we’re looking at over three goals at -115, Alex. Home win for me and Hertha are minus… oh sorry, +145. I think Hertha don’t score you know.

Alex Campean:

It’s difficult to make a bet on this, win 2-0. You know me that I hate this market in general and more now that Leverkusen have so many problems in the recent weeks and they also have European commitments. So now, 10 points off the European spots, so how do you think it, how do you prioritize it? I don’t think that they have any chance to qualify in Europe via Bundesliga, so do you look-

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Do you not?

Alex Campean:

No, I don’t think so. No, why they will do? No, they can [inaudible 00:38:44].

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

But they could go on a run, couldn’t they? They’ve got the personnel to go on a run.

Alex Campean:

They do, but they also have European commitments and they’re playing next week, so this is my worry with this. So how they will approach this end of the season? We just have 12 more rounds and it’s 10 points behind the European spots, I don’t think that they will catch the European places this season. And unfortunately, they should prioritize the European competition in this season because they might qualify for Europe via Europa League. So yes, Hertha, you will argue that they are bad, they have their ups and downs, that they are better at home than on the road, but I don’t know, something tells me that Hertha can even score on this match. So I wouldn’t put any one of an Alex Classic here, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals. I wouldn’t touch Leverkusen at -185, not even for a parlay pice, not even to mention to cover the spread, -1. So I don’t know, I think that the value is on Hertha +1 at -110. I don’t think that they will lose by more than one goal, but I’m not betting on this game, so who am I to talk?

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Well, I am. I jumped all over this. I had three or four options and I came out, which I believe is the best one, Kev, and that’s that Leverkusen come out the traps and they score first and they lead at half-time.

Kevin Hatchard:

I could see that. Hertha are a funny team, they’ve had a couple of really good results at home, they’ve struggled on the road. I just find Leverkusen in a bit of a no-no really backing them to do anything because I think Xabi Alonso has done some good things. I think there’s been an overreaction because it’s him, because people like him and people think he’s a big name and he is of course, given what he did as a player, but as a coach, we have to wait and see. I don’t his Leverkusen are better than Gerardo Seoane’s Leverkusen at their best and I don’t think he’s even got to that level yet, so let’s see.

Wirtz is back, that’s obviously a massive boost, but I think Alex is right, you just don’t know how much importance they’re going to put on that Europa League clash next week. So this game would worry me a bit just because Leverkusen I find really difficult. They give away dumb goals. The goalkeeper is not good enough, I’ve said that for a long, long time. Lukas Hradecky makes mistakes time and time again, they just do dumb things. They give away penalties, they give away goals, I can’t be trusting them. But look, if they are going to win, then they probably would lead at half-time in the win.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, listen, this is a side that they do go out and they do create chances early on and they’ve just got to take one because even though Hertha earned us money a few weeks ago, we got unbelievably lucky from a strike that the lad is probably never going to hit as sweet in years. Leverkusen for me will just tread all over them, I don’t think Hertha get out, but all I’m asking for is Hertha to be leading at half-time and then the price is just scary good. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Come on the home team, wish they were playing on Friday night.

Yeah, first half Leverkusen moneyline at +110, just to be beating Hertha at half-time. Come on Leverkusen. Okay, let’s go to the final game then please. It’s Wolfsburg at +140 hosting Frankfurt at +185. When I see these two sides on paper, I look and think, “Okay, I’m seeing three, four or five goals.” The line is set at over 2 1/2, Kev, at -125. I mean I had to look twice because I think Wolfsburg can score twice at +120, I think Frankfurt can scored twice at +140. I’m already at four, I’ve only got to get to three.

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah, overs is unbelievable. At -125, that’s a great bet. The numbers will back it up. I mean most of Wolfsburg’s home games, full of goals. Frankfurt away from home, their games tend to be full of goals as well. And there’s a real intrigue here because Niko Kovac was the guy who started the golden era for Frankfurt really, kept them up a few years ago against Nurnberg in a relegation playoff. Went on to reach the cup final in 2017, lost it, went on to reach the cup final in 2018, won it. Then joined the team that he beat, that was Bayern. And Oliver Glasner came in to Wolfsburg, did a brilliant job, got them into the Champions League and he’s gone to Frankfurt and has won the Europa League. So all about the coaches, but I think there’s too much attacking talent on those teams for us not to get at least three goals. So for me, I mean to be honest, -125 for any Bundesliga game over 2 1/2 you’d look at seriously. For this one, I think it’ll be negligent not to look at it.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, I mean I’ve even got 4-2 in my sights and I couldn’t rule out the away side scoring the four, Alex.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, you should put me in also for the over two [inaudible 00:43:59].

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Oh yum, yum, yum, yum, yum-

Alex Campean:

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I was just looking and Eintracht allowed at least one in every away game this season in Bundesliga. I think that they kept one clean sheet in the cup game all season long, but they tend to concede many goals when they are on the road and Wolfsburg, they have the firepower to score at least twice of course. So please put me also with that over 2.5 goals at -125. Actually I will add it in, just you not to forget.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

I’ve done it already.

Alex Campean:

Oh, really?

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah.

Alex Campean:

Oh my God. How fast, man. An old man-

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, fast fingers [inaudible 00:44:46].

Alex Campean:

… an old man can type very fast [inaudible 00:44:49].

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Yeah, apart from when Skype want a security code off me when I’m on the countdown for one minute. Can’t believe they said that. 8:59, ready to go and Skype comes up with, “You are entering into a sensitive area. Could please put in a security code? We will send it to your Gmail.” I’m like, “Really? Okay.” So I got to take that on the chins. Okay, let’s have a little look at official picks. Great game this. First of all before I do that, Kev, what game are you doing over the weekend? I know you’re doing Friday night game.

Kevin Hatchard:

Yes, and I’ve got Stuttgart-Bayern as well on Saturday, so it’s going to be a really intriguing game.

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Excellent. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks please. It’s over 2 1/2 goals at -125. And Alex has added it as well, it’s on the sheet so I will add that up the best bets graphic at the end. Now time for a quick Q&A, but prior to that, I’d like you to please subscribe and also ring the bell and that means I’ll notify you or someone will notify you that Champions League and Europa League on Monday. It’s going to be a great week. We’ve been so, so hot, so many big numbers, half-time numbers, so make sure you join us all on Monday. It’d be Mina and Mark for Champions League and it’ll be Alex and Stinch for Europa League. Also-

Alex Campean:

It’s funny because you’re saying Q&A, Flash. The only one game that we didn’t cover was Augsburg-

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

I know, but there’ll be some geezer in there or female in there or Claudio that will want to know about that game or they’ll come up with something for next week, so I’ve got to cater for them, no problems whatsoever. But also if you’d like to type in betustv.com/join, that’s where the action begins. Or if you want a $50 free bet, then type in betustv.com/fifty. Enjoy. Question? No. Let’s have a little look at the best bets graphic please because I’ve got one to add. Oh, yellow, two yellows. Oh, we’re liking it. Okay, first of all, Alex’s add is Wolfsburg-Frankfurt over 2 1/2 at -125. Alex has gone for Dortmund-Leipzig, both teams score and over 2 1/2 at -120. Hopefully Leipzig win 3-2 because Kev has gone for Dortmund team total over 1 1/2 at -110. Mainz, moneyline at -110. Mainz, -1 free hit for me at +170. Another free hit is Union -1 at +180. Bayern -1 1/2 at +105 for myself and for Alex, but not for the man who said it was the best bet on the card last week. Alarm bells are ringing.

Hofmann’s family have had the email, the telegram that he will score at any time this weekend in the Gladbach-Freiburg game at +275. Mainz-Hoffenheim, Onisiwo, anytime goalscorer at +190. Question marks about his fitness, but if he plays, we’re looking for him to score. If he doesn’t, it will be voided. And the two yellows, first half Leverkusen, moneyline at +110 just to be beating Hertha, little Hertha don’t come and sting me now. And Bayern -1 1/2, +105. Let’s hope it’s not closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. Mitch saying we’re getting greedy. Listen, it’s all good, all good. We’re loving it. Over 34 units, want to get up to 40. And I tell you what, with the big numbers that we’ve got on offer this weekend, it could well happen. Alex, great job. Good luck this weekend. Let’s keep building. Kev, all the best tonight. Hopefully you’re cheering on my goals as well as your own and-

Alex Campean:

Of course, and Dortmund, let’s see Dortmund going toe-to-toe with Bayern. Let’s see till the end. I want this-

Gordon “Flash” Watson:

Whoa, whoa, whoa. What sort of blasphemy is this? Alex, if I had a red card close to me, I’d chat to you twice, Leipzig. I want Leipzig to finish second to Bayern.