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Bundesliga Picks Matchday 24 | Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

Bundesliga Picks Matchday 24

Flash:

Welcome to BetUS. I’m Flash, and this is Bundesliga Show and it’s match day 24, going great guns in Bundesliga because there’s plenty hurdles, plenty bumps in the road that the boys, my experts are actually just going round. You present up? No, he’s going headfirst, straight down the manhole. And then these boys have got to try and dig me out. But first of all, we are America’s favorite sportsbook. So, I’d invite you to subscribe and just join the queue of over 4,000 current subscribers. We’re looking to get to 5,000 before the end of the season, and I know we appreciate all of your support. And at the moment, I’d like you to ring the bell, because ring. the bell means that you’ll be notified by us of all of our content, because there’s so much coming up. We have golf, we have tennis, we have horse racing alongside all the major sports as well.

Flash:

Now, I say about pit holes and things like that, but we have seven games. Remember the two have the Q&A prior to the official picks at the end of the show. But we’ve seven games. With that, if you’ve got any questions, make sure you throw your questions in during the games that we have covered. I’m going to start off with the number one expert in Bundesliga, Kevin Hatcher, the voice of European soccer odds. And by the way, Kevin, let’s start off on a massive positive, which is against me. I caught your commentary last week, and you are rather good at your job.

Kevin Hatcher:

Thank you very much, Flash. Delightful to hear.

Flash:

Yeah, you can’t believe that the niceties are coming out of my mouth, can you?

Kevin Hatcher:

Now that’s me set up for the whole weekend, I think.

Flash:

It’s like the wink of a young supermodel. Oh, give me one of that.

Kevin Hatcher:

Wow. So, [crosstalk 00:01:45] I’ll take a compliment from you instead. That’ll do.

Flash:

There you go. You don’t want that bad sort of vibe in your head. What games are you covering this week?

Kevin Hatcher:

So I’ve got another Friday, which I’m delighted about. So, I’ll be doing Hoffenheim Stuttgart, which we’re going to talk about in a bit more detail later on. And I’ve also got an interesting game between Leverkusen and Arminia Bielefeld, because that might not be the straightforward game that many people think, because Bielefeld has actually in the last couple of months, been a lot better than they were before.

Flash:

Yeah. They’ve gone back to their old ways of making sure they stay in games and score and being very, very tough opponents. Alex again, last week you managed to produce another last minute goal to get what you needed.

Alex:

Yeah, unfortunately it was just two and one, not three and zero. But two and one, two and one, two and one, three shows in a row. This time I change it a little bit. I will have four picks. So maybe I’ll go three and one, not four and zero.

Flash:

Are you worried? Are you worried about hexing yourself? Because obviously, you’ve taken off the facial hair and you look like you’re like nine.

Alex:

Yeah, I had a nice shave. I had a nice haircut. I’m preparing,

Flash:

I wouldn’t say it was nice the haircut, but yeah, you’ve had a haircut.

Alex:

For the NATO planes above me in the sky, waving them. So yeah, we are a little bit stressed with everything that is going on, because I’m living 55 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. But other than that, really confident today in this week’s score.

Flash:

Okay, well let’s have a little look at the records, please ignore your presenter’s total at the top because I think I’ve got to really start concentrating on Bundesliga. And if you remember, I quickly can turn around. I was like 13 units up at the start of the season. Flash -11.92. Kev’s going great guns, 12.7. I think that’s him as third best soccer capper throughout all of the shows, but look at the total, the total’s 10.79. And that would obviously be 22 units, if you ignore your presenter.

Flash:

Alex has turned it around from 3.73, and parlay at 1.8. So another BetUS soccer show that’s well in profit. So just kick straight off then, shall we? Remember we’ve done the records, we are going to do to Q&A at the end. Then the first game is on the Friday night. It’s Hoffenheim versus Stuttgart. Hoffenheim at -180, Stuttgart at +475, the draws at +340, and the under over is at free where it’s just flip a coin. It either goes over or under, but the way that the -110 comes out, we’re probably going to see exactly three goals, Kev.

Kevin Hatcher:

I think Hoffenheim are going to dominate this. I think you’ve got a situation where Stuttgart are very low on confidence. They were heading for a much needed win last weekend, and then a clumsy challenge from Tinos Mavropanos, who’s actually one of their better players gave away a penalty, right at the end, and Eduard Lowen was able to put it away. And so, that was a real gut punch for them. They’ve only got two points from the last eight games. If you look at their away form, it’s really poor. They’ve only won one game away from home all season. I was actually looking at some of the goalkeeper data, and Florian Muller, their goalkeeper, has the worst post shot XG figures in the whole league. Now, what that means is that effectively he’s conceded seven goals more than the stats say he should have. So, the kind of median for that is around about zero, but a good goalkeeper should be hitting that zero mark. He’s on -7.2, which is the worst figure by a long way, and what that tells you [crosstalk 00:05:20].

Flash:

Why are you being so hard on Stuttgart, though? I mean, listen, I don’t feel as if it’s misplaced. I mean, you are really not enamored with the way they play home or away, and that’s very strange because normally they come out. Do you think it’s just like the tough season catching up with them?

Kevin Hatcher:

Yeah, I think they’ve struggled for a long time, Flash. I think if you look at the way they play, it’s very open, and they’ve lost Marc-Oliver Kempf, who was the best defender. He’s gone to Hertha. They’ve lost Silas now for the rest of the season because he’s needed an operation on his shoulder, Sasa Kalajdzic.

Alex:

They lost him because he wants to change his name again.

Kevin Hatcher:

Well, he’ll have time to do that if he wants to, because he’s got this ligament damage in his shoulder. It’s a real shame actually, because they felt he was starting to get the real Silas back in training, starting to look sharp. Sasa Kalajdzic has had a really big time out with injury. And so now with all these setbacks, it’s going to be very, very hard for them to turn it around. They’re capable, but it’s just whether they can get over that psychological challenge.

Flash:

Yeah, and the other thing that you can cannot fail to mention is that we’re mentioning the keepers, the bad stats, but that obviously comes from the defenders as well of him not protecting him. So I mean, Hoffenheim and Stuttgart, we got -200 for Hoffenheim to score twice. Is this a straight -100, -115 because we only expect the home side to win, Alex?

Alex:

Yeah, probably. Hoffenheim are very dominant on home soil. They’re one of the best teams playing in front of their fans. They scored 25 goals in the 11 home games. They turned it around in the last two matches, after having a poor run of former beating both [inaudible 00:07:07]. On the other side, Kevin is totally right with the Stuttgart. He’s telling us every single week to be against them, and every single week that bet catches. Yes, they struggle at the back. Even their most experienced defender, as Kevin said, making huge mistakes at the back. Absolutely insane. Their lack of confidence, I think that is the key and their injury issues altogether. They’re putting them in a desperate position right now. They’re desperate for points. They are deep in the danger zone. I don’t think that they will save themselves.

Alex:

Also this season, they have a busy and very complicated schedule in front of them until the end of the season. And I think that Hoffenheim should build on that two wins in a row, and make it three, and maintain the pressure on the likes of RB Leipzig that are going absolutely amazing lately. They’re fighting for that fourth spot. I don’t think that Hoffenheim will finish fourth. I think that the standings will finish exactly, the season will finish exactly how the situation looks like right now in the standings, Bayern, Dortmund, Leipzig, and Hoffenheim there with the Freiburg going for the fifth spot, but still fifth for Hoffenheim would be amazing. Europa League group stages, historical result, in my opinion. I think that, okay, they’re not bad. They’re not bad. They can cope. Let’s see how they will approach the end of the season. But this is, I think that a comfortable win for them.

Flash:

Yeah. The big one for me was that the Stuttgart not to score at +165, or you can get Hoffenheim -1 at -115, or as they say in the chat, Andersson’s got a bit greedy, which we don’t mind. It’s Hoffenheim -1.5 at +135. The -1 just means if Hoffenheim win the game 2-1, 3-2, 1-0, then it’s a push. There’s nothing. There’s nothing at stake. So yeah, the -1 at -115, I think it is a don’t complicate it free hit. Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because we expect the home side to win. And there it is, Hoffenheim -1 at -115. And remember that Kev is not just the voice of European soccer. He is actually third best soccer capper throughout all of our show put together. Sorry?

Alex:

He’s the best. He’s the best guy in the world at hating Stuttgart.

Flash:

Yes. Obviously beats up on Stuttgart. I thought you were going to say, he is the best commentating capper on this show.

Alex:

Yeah. I want to see him live on TV you know?

Flash:

Yeah. He’s the best commentating capper on this show. See how we are just reeling our compliments back in now though, Kev.

Kevin Hatcher:

That’s all right.

Flash:

Let’s move on, because that’s Hoffenheim, and we’re giving them the three points. We just hope they win by two clear goals. So moving on, this could be a little bit of a banana skin because it’s Leverkusen at -265, Bielefeld at +775, the draws at +385, the under over is again at three, they do love their goals in Bundesliga with the over three favorite of -120. Alex, Leverkusen’s one of your sides. You’ve failed to wear the shirt today. So that means that they could have a nice weekend, because normally if you wear the shirt, they get hexed.

Alex:

No, I cashed both tickets with them, despite losing their last match against Mainz, which was probably the most entertaining match of the season, in my opinion. In terms of fighting spirit from Mainz, Leverkusen were just surprised about how Mainz is taking the game. Going back to one, okay. We cash the ticket. I thought that when Mainz scored the second goal, I said to myself, “The third is coming also from Mainz.” And it came, they played with too much passion last week, Mainz, but talking about Leverkusen, they will be without their top scorer, Patrik Schick, but Alario is another amazing and talented player in my opinion, and will probably contribute on the scoreboard against Bielefeld.

Alex:

They still have out Bellarabi and Baumgartlinger, both injured. They have that trio in front with Diaby with Wirtz. And right now with Alario, instead of Patrik Schick. Arminia Bielefeld, much improved. Out from the danger zone because of the recent results. This year, they put up some impressive games and I think that they will create some problems to Leverkusen. I think that at the end of the day, Leverkusen will win this clash, but I think that is better to avoid Leverkusen and focus on the goals market.

Flash:

Do you think Bielefeld score, though?

Alex:

Yeah, absolutely.

Flash:

Absolutely. Well then you got Leverkusen at +165 for a Leverkusen win and both teams to score, Kev.

Alex:

Well, this is where I’m not so confident of Leverkusen.

Flash:

You’re reversing out of that. So of all of the numbers, they’re very, very heavy. Do we expect Leverkusen to score thee? Because if we do, it’s +120. Do we expect Bielefeld to keep it tight? And then it’s like 2-1, 3-2, because Bielefeld at -120 for a goal and a half. Kev, do Leverkusen win by two clear goals? Because there’s a little bit of a trap there at +100.

Kevin Hatcher:

I think the whole thing’s a trap. I think it’s a really difficult game to call. I think there are so many things that could happen here, because Leverkusen don’t have Patrik Schick, as Alex has quite rightly pointed out. Alario’s a good player. I do like Alario but you look at last Friday, there was a moment at two one up to wrap up the game. He got played through by Hincapie, goalkeeper to beat, couldn’t find the finish.

Alex:

Yeah. But the problem with Alario, Kev, is that he’s not receiving many minutes. I mean, every time on the bench, every time on the bench, of course, that he will enter in the second half, and he will not be at his best. So, he needs matches.

Flash:

You think he’s trying too hard, lads?

Kevin Hatcher:

Possibly. [crosstalk 00:13:28]. And he took his goal beautifully. He took his goal incredibly well. And he’s a good player, Alex is absolutely right, but there’s always a better player at Leverkusen that takes his place. And the issue with that is that they never play two up top. They never ever play two strikers. And so while Schick is at the football club, he’s always going to be second best unless Schick is injured, which he is now.

Flash:

Do we expect it to be really tight here first off? Because Bielefeld, are they going to try and get matched up man to man and just make it very difficult?

Kevin Hatcher:

Yeah, they will. Bielefeld will try and stay compact, as they always do. Stefan Ortega will have a big role to play the goalkeeper, but they won their last season. And I think that was Frank Kramer’s first win in charge. He had a game before, which is against [inaudible 00:14:14] and he drew. And this was his first win in charge. So, they won’t go there with any fear. The thing that worries me about this game is that Leverkusen can smash anybody, apart from Bayern. They can catch fire. They can suddenly… I mean, we saw what they did to Dortmund the other week. If they click, they will hammer you. However, Bielefeld are really awkward. And this is why this is one those games. When you can see all eventualities is reasonable, a reasonable outcome. That’s when I walk away, really.

Alex:

I think that what Leverkusen misses, I think that is exactly the type of Mainz behavior. If they had also that Mainz approach, not only they’re playing from talent, they’re playing from attacking firepower, they are amazing going forward. But if they had a plus of that fighting spirit that Mainz had, I think that they can win leagues, in my opinion. I think that they can go head to head with Bayern Munich. Okay, Bayern Munich will take it at the end, but they can be the second team after Bayern Munich and not Dortmund. So I think that Leverkusen, as you said, if they click, they can destroy Arminia. If they score a fast goal in the first 15 minutes of the game, it’ll be an entertaining game. And this is what I hope to see, you know?

Flash:

Yeah. It’d be very interesting to see how Bielefeld handle that if they go down because obviously Leverkusen, no one lets more goals in the last 20 minutes than Leverkusen. So they know that if they can keep it tight, they are going to get maybe chances to even go and win the game. Now, what are the official picks? Because I mean, the goals were set up free. There it is, over three goals at -120.

Alex:

Yes, it was at +100. Imagine.

Flash:

So, the money that they heard that you were, maybe the Google spreadsheet’s gone out early

Alex:

Probably.

Flash:

And then people have lumped on, but there again, well, so that means when my selections come in, maybe it’s gone the other way because they see that Flash is on it. So they’re like [crosstalk 00:16:17]. Okay, so there it is. It’s Leverkusen versus Bielefeld over three goals at -120. Okay. Let’s move on to the next game, because I expect this. Maybe we’ll have the goal liner around three and a half. It’s Gladbach versus Wolfsburg. Gladbach at -105, Wolfsburg at +300, and look at that. This game on paper says goals, goals, goals led, and it’s over two and half at -130, draw at +250. I just see goals. I think that both of these teams are going to expect to win. Wolfsburg on their day are a match, Gladbach, they can score fours and fives. Maybe it’ll take a another couple of weeks before they score again. But the over two and half at -130, Kev, it looks like goals to me.

Kevin Hatcher:

It could be. I can certainly understand the thinking behind that. The only thing that puts me off, I’m still a bit scarred by what happened in Frankfurt a couple of weeks ago, when we were convinced that Wolfsburg game in Frankfurt was bring us goals.

Alex:

My God.

Kevin Hatcher:

That didn’t quite happen in the end. I think for me, the attraction of this game is that I think the money line’s wrong, because I can’t see how anybody could justify, [inaudible 00:17:29] mentioned Gladbach having a price of -105. It doesn’t make any sense to me for them to be that short because I see these as two quite evenly matched teams who have underachieved massively. I don’t think anybody could watch that horrendous display in Dortmund on Sunday where they lost 6-0 for the second time this season and think, “Oh yeah, I think Gladbach are justifiable -105.”

Kevin Hatcher:

Yes, they won the previous home game against Augsburg, but even then they nearly blew it. There were three one up and let in a late goal and were a bit jittery towards the end. So, I still think defensively they’re all over the place. I still think Plea, Embolo, they’re underperforming, Thuram is another one. Hoffman, I think is a great player. He’s the best player they’ve got right now, but they’re not right. They’re still not right. I still think there are big problems in terms of the structure, and as bad as Wolfsburg have been at times, do you think with Jonas Wind in there and Max Kruse in there, they’ve got the capability to do some damage. And let’s not forget a few weeks ago, Kruse scored twice for Union to win a game away at Gladbach. So, he’s already damaged them once.

Flash:

Yeah. He likes it there.

Alex:

Obviously, that goes Gladbach.

Flash:

Yeah, but I mean, again, both of these sides, I mean both teams to score and over looks like the way to go. And then you’re not even worrying about who goes and wins, and that’s at plus money. I mean, just getting a 2-1 from either of these sides. I cannot work out Gladbach, because they have got individuals who on their day are exceptional, hence the reason they’ve scored five against Bayern, and they keep dining out on that. But Wolfsburg are strong outfit, and +300 for the draw at +250. Do we see Alex, maybe a 2-2 draw here?

Alex:

I think that we’ll have a winner between the two. I don’t think that we [crosstalk 00:19:24].

Flash:

Will Wolfsburg score twice, Alex?

Alex:

I think so. I think so. Like you guys mentioned, Gladbach are nowhere to be found defensively awful, not creating. I mean, I don’t know. They don’t understand what language Adi Hutter is talking to them. I don’t understand, what is the problem there? So probably, they can’t wait for the end of the season and make a nice restructure there inside the team. So, probably this is what Gladbach are thinking right now, because they have no chance to qualify in the European Sports. Both teams are not exactly calm right now, because they’re sitting four and five above the danger zone, and we still have 11 rounds to go till the end of the season. So, you should be stressed. And if you are Gladbach playing how you played, how you performed against Dortmund, you should be worried. And I think that Kev is making a great point on the numbers here. Gladbach should never be at my 105. So, I think that Wolfsburg will return home with at least one point here, but I fancy a nice match, at least three goals in the score board.

Flash:

I mean, that does look like a given because even one of these sides could go and score free on their own.

Alex:

My only problem, my problem is that you have the same bet with me.

Flash:

No, I do not.

Alex:

No? Okay.

Flash:

No, you’ve gone the chicken way of over two and a half goals. Let’s have a little look at the official peak, because also I must do my job and remind you that Wolfsburg to score twice is at +190. I mean, you can have two or three bets and not get anywhere near +190.

Alex:

Amazing.

Flash:

So, I mean Wolfsburg does look like a potential player, and I’ll think about whether I add that at the end Wolfsburg +0.5. So it’s, Wolfsburg double chance at -115, both teams score over two and a half goals is at plus one. I cannot believe the goals is at two and a half. Yeah. Over two and a half.

Alex:

Sorry. Sorry, Steve Gregory saying [crosstalk 00:21:35].

Flash:

Are you sorry though? You say sorry, but.

Alex:

Always, always I’m sorry about Dortmund’s performance yesterday against the Rangers in general.

Flash:

I said don’t mention it. Why don’t you read the first bit?

Alex:

Yeah, but [crosstalk 00:21:46].

Flash:

Respectfully, please no one mention, talk about Dortmund and you’re like, “Oh, let’s talk about Dortmund.”

Alex:

But we will talk about Dortmund later on. I just want to mention again what I said last week that their injury issues increased, and now they have like 11 players out with injuries.

Flash:

Yeah. It’s so good. It’s so good that Dortmund are out of the Europa league as well, because obviously we went with Barcelona on the Europa show to go on and win it, and then Napoli are out. They were second favorites. The favorites, Dortmund, they’re out as well. So come on [crosstalk 00:22:20] over two and a half goals at -130 for the man that loves a 94th minute goal, but hopefully that’ll be the fourth or fifth, and maybe it’ll be Wolfsburg’s third, a +190 Wolfsburg. We’ll come back to and revisit that.

Flash:

Okay, let’s move on because it was strange that this game even made it Freiburg versus Hertha. Freiburg -160 tells you everything you need to know about the visitors being +430, you can get Hertha plus one at -125. So, if Hertha even lose the game by one goal, you’re still going to get your money back. The draws up +310. The under over is at two and a half, with it being reduced at -135, to see three goals. Alex, you can go first because Freiburg at home are decent. Hertha, for me, they go into Kev’s camp of Stuttgart.

Alex:

Hertha are just one point above the dangers zone. The second worst defense in the league, with 51 goals conceded. Awful right now, awful is a team that you must face no matter against, against whom they’re playing. So even if they’re playing Stuttgart, I would rather go with Stuttgart. Despite the fact that the Stuttgart are also bad, but yeah. Freiburg are great at home. I don’t know how on earth, like you said, this match made the card, but someone is brave enough to take it.

Flash:

Yeah. Brave, or absolutely stupid, Kev, because I’ve gone with a home side here because I think they win the game, and I think they win the game because I’ve watched Hertha at very, very close quarters, and disjointed. Don’t create enough and their back door is open. So for me, Freiburg win this game, maybe comfortably 2-0. And then, so I’ve gone in for the -1, at plus money.

Kevin Hatcher:

Yeah. I can understand that. I think Hertha have been very poor. There’s no question about that. I don’t think Kev coming in has helped yet. I think it will in the long term, but it hasn’t helped yet. Goalkeeper is struggling. Alexander Schwolow, he comes up against his former side this weekend. I think Tayfun Korkut’s not the right coach. I said that at the time, and I believe that even more strongly now. There’s a guy that, it’s amazing to me that he gets these positions.

Alex:

Can you explain a little bit, how is this possible having a team like Hertha fighting to avoid relegation, bringing a coach with like no results?

Kevin Hatcher:

Yeah. Well, I think [crosstalk 00:24:55].

Flash:

They’re better than they are.

Kevin Hatcher:

I think Fredi Bobic had strong connections to Stuttgart he’ll have known about Korkut’s work at Stuttgart. He’s a guy that players and administrators like.

Alex:

Respect.

Kevin Hatcher:

And respect.

Alex:

Exactly.

Kevin Hatcher:

He was a decent player. He speaks four languages. He’s a good guy. He has some decent ideas, but he never stays anywhere for long. And I think it tells you a lot that at Leverkusen, he was only there for a very short time, and he didn’t get the job on a permanent basis. I’m pretty convinced he won’t get the job at Hertha on a permanent basis. And with Stuttgart, he really struggled. So if you look at, for all the good things players say about him, and all the good things that administrators say about him, the results aren’t there to back it up. Hertha is a club with massive problems. Lars Windhorst, the investor has said that it was a big mistake. He wishes he hadn’t bothered now. And he’s pumped huge amounts of money into that football club. So, I think they are in a bit of a mess right now.

Alex:

Going down.

Flash:

What, you think Hertha go down?

Alex:

The way they’re playing right now? They should pray to God to see Augsburg and Stuttgart maintaining that brilliant run of form, you know?

Flash:

Yeah. Well, [inaudible 00:26:11], who you know is a good judge, he’s gone with Freiburg halftime fulltime at +128, and Freiburg to win by two goals at +360. I don’t complicate. I think you’re going to get a free hit with the home side winning, and it’s -1 at +105. Here’s the official pick, because we’re going to have to just beat up on the visitors. And there it is. Freiburg -1 at +105. And as you know, your host needs as many plus money winners as possible.

Flash:

Now we talk about this one making the cut. What about the next one? How has this done it? And it will be a surprise as well, because it’s Furth versus Koln, Furth at home. They’ve got to like… Listen, there’s been green shoots of them actually improving. It’s not going to be enough. They’re going down, but they’re now at the start of the season, you were getting plus money for them to score a goal. Now, all of a sudden it’s like -200, but then market is up plus one and a half. It’s like total is at two and a half with -140 that we see three goals, Furth +280 to get the home win, Koln on the road, -105. Alarm bells draw a +265. Alex, looks like a runner.

Alex:

It’s difficult to call a winner here. It’s very difficult. I think that FC Koln should win. They are by far the better side, but graded for lately, those ups and downs, scoring goals, I think that they might find the back of the net against the Koln. I can’t fade Koln really, even though the value should be on the home side here, but I cannot go to better guess Koln. So, I would rather stay away and probably I see that being an overs match and the overs, the line is right now at 2.5. And I see three goals here.

Flash:

What? So, +150 for what? Over?

Alex:

No, no. Over 2.5 goals in the match. No, no, no. -140, but the line is at 2.5.

Flash:

Oh, okay. Yeah, the line is at 2.5, the big one that’s like just jumps out of me is Koln at -125 to score twice, Kev, because I can see there’s been a 2-2, but if you just want, there may be their wayside scoring twice at -125, then you’re not even worried about the end result.

Kevin Hatcher:

My worry is that Koln are just not the same team away from home than they are at home, and they don’t win that many games. If you look at their season, they’ve drawn a lot, they’re quite hard to beat, but they’ve drawn a lot, and they’re just not the same team on the road that they are in front of their own fans. And this is about Furth’s improvement because I’ve been against Furth all season, as you guys know, and you have to, but finally they’ve settled down.

Kevin Hatcher:

It’s not going to be enough, but I think they finally believe that they can play at this level. If you look at how they played against Bayern last week, they’re 1-0 up at half time. Yes, it all went wrong and they lost 4-1. But I actually think they can take some strength out of that performance. Branimir Hrgota are scoring goals, which is a minor miracle because he never really has at this level. So, that helps if you’re getting goals on a regular basis. I just think they’ll look at Koln and look at the weaknesses they have, and in front of their fans, they’ll try and exploit them. And I just don’t trust Koln enough away from home. And I just thought odds on for Koln to win away from home, even though it’s against the rock bottom team, that’s too short for me.

Flash:

Okay. So what have we actually gone for? Why is this game on my list? So, let’s have a little look at the official pick because we got Furth at -0.5, at -115. So you think that the home side do not get beat, they get something out the game and at it’s probably less than the draw. We’re happy with the draw it at +265. But the draw also means that Kev will be adding to his total and -115, getting the home side against it on an away side that don’t win enough games.

Alex:

Unbeaten. Unbeaten at home in the last five matches, winning three in a row, or maybe result against Mainz, 2-1. Yeah, I can see the value is on them. The value is definitely on them, but in the same time I cannot fade Koln, really.

Flash:

No, no, no. Listen, if Koln gone win this game 3-1, everyone will say, and Kev’s normally the one that says this, it was obvious. It was obvious. But that’s after like the event. I mean, if it was always after the event then none of us would lose. Maybe I would now and again, because I’m a bit stupid when it comes to things like that. Okay. So, we’re going with a home side double chance at -115. Okay. Now, there’s plenty teams to be up on in Bundesliga. Hence, the reason that you boys are doing so well. And here’s one now, because Union Berlin versus Mainz, Union up +160, Mainz at +180, the draw at +235 with the under over at two and a half.

Flash:

But if you think we’re going to get three goals, you’re going to get paid handsomely at +120. Union, I don’t know what’s happened to them, Kev. They were really strong. They were like, fearless. And they’re all of a sudden, they’ve absolutely struggled against a Mainz side who we were saying at home, you’ve got to be with Mainz. Away, you’ve got to be wary. But now, they’re starting to put performances, even if they don’t get three points, they’re putting performances together.

Kevin Hatcher:

Yeah. I think there’s a couple of things here with Union. I think losing Max Kruse, it was massive because he was a talismanic figure. Would score goals, make goals, would draw defenders away from the forwards that they have. And Sven Michel, even though he’s done very well in Bundesliga, too, is just not the same type of player, not the same quality. So, that’s a big ask to get him to come in and replace Kruse. That was never going to happen. They’ve also lost Marvin Friedrich to Borussia M’gladbach, and that robs them of some defensive stability. That then puts pressure on the goalkeeper, Andreas Luthe, who’s a very old school goalkeeper, excellent shot stopper, commanding in the air, hopeless with the ball at his feet. And that’s a real issue in modern football. Mainz, I’m not totally convinced about away from home. I think they did brilliantly to beat Leverkusen, but that game could easily have gone against them.

Kevin Hatcher:

At 2-1, Leverkusen had a couple of good chances and I think it’s just one of those crazy games where the crowd gets involved. It’s carnival, there’s a real buzz around the place. And then as soon as the equalizer goes in, suddenly it’s mayhem and who knows how it’ll go. So you have to give them huge credit for what they’ve done. I’m still not sure away from home, they’re quite good enough. And they’ve got a problem in attack at the moment because Jonathan Burkardt, I think has now gone 10 games competitively without a goal. So, that’s an issue. So, I just think this is a tricky one. The thing I like, I guess about this game, and I think this is what Alex has done, and I totally understand it. When you’ve got a game like this between two teams that are probably about the same, and they’re pretty much pick them, why wouldn’t you go for draw no bat and get a couple of results on your side? And it’s probably worth the go with a bit of insurance.

Flash:

Yeah. And also Alex, this is like the one game that I look at and think, you’re getting a good price on the overs for a reason, because this could easily be 0-0, maybe 1-0 for a large period. So, you’re looking at the numbers. It’s like Berlin are going to score one, Mainz are going to score one. And that’s why the under two and up is massively hit at -140.

Alex:

To be honest, I can see Mainz scoring, even two goals at +180. So also, that is valuable for me. But I went with wayside. I went with the underdogs on paper, but normally if we are talking about other latest performance, we can see that Mainz are playing way better. Yes, it was a nice story. It was a film story, movie story, what happened last Friday against Leverkusen, with all the buzz and players giving everything on the pitch, like they were in a… I don’t know, crazy movie. It was crazy to see Mainz playing that way. No words to describe the feeling when you are a Mainz fan, looking at your team to play exactly how they did. Kevin’s right from one point of view, that Leverkusen had the chance to make it 3-1. But for who watched the match, you should know that Leverkusen were 90 minutes long, they were scared.

Alex:

They were scared about what will happen in inside the match, because they saw the first 10 minutes pressure, pressure, high pressure. Let’s go to three against one. They said, “Oh my God, what is happening in here?” I would like for Mainz to play the same also on the road. The road performance is bad, is very bad, but against a Union Berlin team who is not scoring the last three matches, three defeats in a row, lost Max Kruse, their most experienced player. The long confidence, everything is pointing towards a Mainz win, or at least one point. This is why I went with the PK with the underdog here.

Flash:

So you’ve gone with, what is it? Draw no bet for the away side. And I mean, listen, it is a flipper. Don’t forget, the definite runner with these two, and the under’s a massive -140. Let’s have a little look at the official picks before we go onto our seventh and final game. It’s Mainz draw no bet at +100. And Alex did indicate that he likes Mainz to score twice as well, and that’s a massive price. And I’ve certainly not forgot about the game we talked about earlier, with Wolfsburg +190 to score twice. It’s still there in me head.

Flash:

Okay, the last game, the seventh game. And it’s funny, only a couple of weeks ago, Bochum were hosting Bayern and scoring four. Bochum versus Leipzig, Bochum +455, Leipzig -155 Leipzig -1 at plus money, +105 the draw at +290, totals under over three. Kev, Leipzig really, really have turned the corner. I mean, they’ve got strikers who are now scoring goals, but the bigger one for me, and whenever you look at these type of game is the creativity, the belief and the togetherness. And then you throw them away from home against a Bochum side who have only got good memories at moment about playing on the home soil.

Kevin Hatcher:

Yeah. This is a really interesting proposition this game, because Leipzig have been brilliant in the last few weeks. There’s no getting away from that. I thought it was a superb result in the Basque Country, to go to San Sebastian and beat Real Sociedad in the way they did was terrific. Although Larrea are struggling at the moment, so it’s maybe one we could have seen coming, but it was still a very good performance. But it does worry me a little ahead of this game because Bochum make you work. They are physical. They make you work. And even though Leipzig have, I think the deepest squad in the Bundesliga. I genuinely believe that, deeper than Bayern, deeper than Dortmund.

Kevin Hatcher:

I think they’ve got more options than anyone, but how many changes will Tedesco really make? So, because he’ll have an awareness that this team is playing really good football right now. So, he’ll probably pick Nkunku again. He’ll probably pick Silva again. So, it’ll be interesting to see what team he picks. Bochum have had a full week to prepare. As you say, they beat Bayern. They are capable of doing damage. They’ve got a great home record. So, this feels a bit trappy to me. I could see Leipzig winning it. Certainly not against that. I could see it, but could I see Leipzig being frustrated in something like one all draw? Yeah, maybe.

Flash:

Okay. Alex, Leipzig. I mean, they’re probably your number one side in Bundesliga at the moment. You seem to have a really good handle on them, predicted that they’d score three times away from home in Spain. They’re -155 to score twice. Are we not giving enough respect to Bochum, because Leipzig at -155 away from home against a side that snuck four past the Bundesliga champions.

Alex:

No, I think that the book is looking at the solidity that this Leipzig team brings in every match. They had no problem with playing every three days. Last week they played Sociedad. After that, they destroyed Hertha 6-1 on the road. This week, they played against Sociedad and they beat them. Now they’re playing a Bochum side, probably tougher opponent than expected, but Yussuf Poulsen should be again in the starting 11 after being on the bench against Real Sociedad, which is a huge plus. Yussuf Poulsen is one of their most consistent players, and most experienced players, and Nkunku, you cannot have him out of the starting 11 when he’s scoring you goals in every single match.

Flash:

Were you surprised he didn’t score midweek, though? I mean, Leipzig scored three goals and he’s not on the score sheet.

Alex:

Yeah, it was not a surprise. He created a lot. He was involved in a lot of actions, no matter if I would love to see also Ronaldo, if he’s not scoring to contribute a little bit, but he doesn’t.

Flash:

Ronaldo? He retired like 20 years ago.

Alex:

No, Cristiano, I mean.

Flash:

Oh Cristiano. But he’s always involved with penalties, and free kicks, and throw-ins.

Alex:

Tap-ins, yeah. But Nkunku scored from a free kick, also is good with the header, and probably they will play both Silva and Nkunku again. I see this one being a clear victory. I think that Leipzig will solve the match from halftime. I think that they will lead at halftime. And after that, Bochum will have to exit. Will have to exit from their shell, and Leipzig are deadly on the break. So, I think that we’ll see a clear victory. And I don’t think that we’ll see many changes in the personnel, because right now RB Leipzig fighting for a Champion’s League spot and they’re equal on points with Hoffenheim in the fifth position. So, they can’t afford to draw points.

Flash:

Okay. Let’s say halftime, full time. I’d like to know though, for Leipzig in the chat, make sure you get there. Look at Barceman coming in with your Q&A already. Okay. So, we give you seven games Barceman, greedy man wants more. So, let’s have a little look at the official picks. First of all, with Bochum versus Leipzig, because myself and Alex, we never talk, but we have come up with the right side. So, there’s some people that like it when we duplicate, or some people hate it when I duplicate. So Leipzig -1 at +105, Alex also believes that maybe half time, full time for Leipzig.

Alex:

Plus one.

Flash:

The one I was wanting to know was, do we see Bochum scoring? Because I saw that Bochum were +160, not to score, Kev.

Kevin Hatcher:

I think they could well do. I think they’ve got the quality. They’ve got guys like Gerrit Holtmann, who can come up with something out of nothing. And I could see Bochum scoring. I mean, as you guys know, I don’t like that bet anyway. I don’t like to go against a team to score, because you get a free kick that gets deflected in, or you get any kind of mayhem and you’re suddenly stuffed for the rest of the game.

Flash:

Yeah, it killed me last week. I had Leipzig went to nil, they went 6-1. One. I’m over the right side and don’t get paid.

Alex:

When is Nkunku going, Kev?

Kevin Hatcher:

Not this summer. I wouldn’t have thought. They’ve been at pains to stress that he’s not leaving this summer. There’s no release clause. He’s not pushing for a move. So, as things stand [crosstalk 00:42:21].

Alex:

Brilliant news for Leipzig.

Flash:

I like the way that you two having your own Q&A.

Alex:

Of course.

Flash:

I love it.

Kevin Hatcher:

[crosstalk 00:42:29] with that one.

Flash:

Okay. Let’s start with the Q&A, get yourselves in the chat. We’ll just give you enough time to type. I’ll remind you and invite you to please subscribe and add to the 4,000 already with the BetUS soccer channel, and ring the bell. Ring the bell means you never miss any content again. And with other sports being added all the time, and it’s a World Cup year, we’ve got so, so much to give you, then make sure you do that ring that bell and put the onus on us to let you know, so you don’t miss anything. Okay. First Q, first question is Barceman saying, “Eintracht versus Bayern. Do I track score, Kev?”

Kevin Hatcher:

They may well do, yeah. I think this felt like a massive trap to me because Eintracht Frankfurt won the reverse fixture, a little bit fortunate to do so, but they did. They’ve had a couple of really good results at home to Bayern in recent seasons, but I’m always very wary about going against Bayern in any game. So, I think goals is probably the way to go, if you do want to have a bet on this game, and I could see Frankfurt scoring.

Flash:

Yeah. Bayern Munich, over three and a half. Okay. So, let’s have a little look. That’s from Barceman. Let’s have a little look at all the official picks, and I am adding, I’m going to get my greedy wand out. And the one I’m adding there is Wolfsburg, team total over 1.5 at +190. So, Wolfsburg basically to score a minimum of two at +190. Alex has gone for Leverkusen and Bielefeld over three, and he loves his goals. Gladbach in Wolfsburg, over two and a half. Well, let’s hope that Wolfsburg get at least two of them.

Alex:

I have also Leipzig minus one. I don’t see it on this list, but…

Flash:

I know. I know they just boycotted your selections, that’s all they’ve done. Or they’ve seen that I’ve gone with Leipzig minus one at +105.

Alex:

Exactly.

Flash:

So they think, “We know Alexei won’t want anything to do with that.” Alex is actually going with Leipzig minus one at +105. Black Mamba’s going with Lewandowski to score. I bet you was up all night thinking of that one, Black Mamba. Jesus. RL9, score in. There you go. Okay. Kev, have a great weekend. Half and nine versus Stuttgart for you. Leverkusen versus Bielefeld, maybe your goals. May your games see many, many goals. Alex, let’s hope we don’t have to wait for your 94th minute Midas touch to get cashed. Okay? So from everyone that BetUS, may all your bets be winners. Remember next week, it’s the FA Cup. And when the lines come out, I will endeavor to try and put a few of them together. But until then, from everyone at BetUS, we appreciate everything you do, and you take care.

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