Flash:
Welcome to the BetUS Soccer channel. I’m Flash. It’s Bundesliga Show. It’s match day 25. Now America’s favorite sportsbook. So let’s get the homework sorted out. I would like you to subscribe obviously and come and join the family and ring the bell, which means you’ll never miss any content again. And that could be Premier League, Serie A, LaLiga, Bundesliga, Champions League. There was a draw earlier, we might just touch on that, especially those that are involved in the futures and follow us regularly. And we got Europa League as well. Two great guests. But first of all, I’d like you to type in betustv.com/odds. All the odds, all the props from all the leagues, all the competitions are over there. And if you find one you like, then type in betustv.com/fifty because there’s a $50 bet waiting for you. We’re going to have records, we’re going to have a chat.
Well, you are going to be doing the chatting. I’m going to be doing the listening. I want all your opinions because this is a show where we only produce winners and at the end there will be a Q&A obviously for my two absolute experts and we’ve got a new sign in today, so I’ll introduce him first and he’s European odds compiler and the digger of wrong lines in our favor. He loves them. And that’s Mark Stinchcombe. And today he will be known as Stinch, not because of any other reason and that’s his name. And on the other side we’ve got the voice of world soccer/football, just taking over my tellies everywhere. Every time I put it on, it’s great. I absolutely love it in Kevin Hatchard. Kev we’ll come to you first. A bit of a bright jumper, isn’t it?
Kevin Hatchard:
That’s quite low-key for me, to be honest Flash.
Flash:
It reminds me of rainbow. People [inaudible 00:01:39].
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, well that’s good.
Flash:
Is it?
Kevin Hatchard:
Good, positive childhood memories. All good.
Flash:
Yeah, very, very positive. I used to love Zippy. What a little mongrel he was. So some of the German sides obviously now have been toasted in Europe. What’s that mentality going to be like? Because for me this card, it’s the… I’ve got a say in now, it’s like this card is one man’s poison but another man’s honey.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, I think it’ll be interesting to see what happens with Union Berlin because obviously I think in the last few weeks things have caught up with them a bit. That’s understandable given the fact that this is not a club that necessarily expects to be in Europe every season. I think they’ve coped with it admirably up until now, but it was always going to be tough to maintain that and obviously they’ll be disappointed that having knocked out Ajax that went out to Union Saint-Gilloise, but the Belgian team played very well over the two legs and they are a good side. They’re challenging for the Belgian title so it is what it is. It’s painful loss for them.
Now it’s about Union concentrating on trying to finish in the top four. There were never realistic title challenges. I think we knew that it was fun for a while when they were up there, but they’ve got a genuine opportunity to finish in the top four and that’s something they’ve never done before. It would maintain their progress. They’ve got better every season in terms of points, tally in terms of performances, so they’ve still got a huge opportunity. For a team like Eintracht Frankfurt, it’s the same. They they’ve had a taste of Champions League now, having won the Europa League. They want to try and get back into that top four if they can.
Flash:
Yeah, Freiburg and Union for me, I think it’s just their squad is just straining right the way through. I mean, obviously it’s not big enough and you’re playing… It happens in nearly every team who have this fixture pile up Stinch, that you play midweek or Thursday, Sunday, Thursday, Sunday in the end you run out of gas or you do well in that competition and then it sort of carries you forward. But it’s very, very tough to be able to battle on both fronts.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, generally it’s the Europa League that sees teams have a worse output in terms of their league performances and results because of the Thursday, Sunday turnaround. At least with the Champions League, often you’ll get Tuesday, Sunday, Wednesday, Sunday or you’ll play on Friday and then you play Wednesday in the league. These competitions, particularly LaLiga and Serie A are quite good at making sure their teams involved in Europe play on the Friday night.
Flash:
Yeah, no one better than Bundesliga at that. Bundesliga give their teams the best support possible.
Mark Stinchcombe:
And what we see as a result of that is teams essentially it’s not rocket science, their win percentage goes down, they don’t lose, it’s not their lose percentage goes up, they just don’t win as many games, which is kind of understandable if you think about it. If they’re tired after the weekend, they probably don’t play on the front foot as much and they probably play a little bit more conservative and it leads to lower scoring games and whenever you have lower scoring games it leads to more draws essentially. So it’s very interesting, you mentioned Union and Freiburg because they’re both tied on 45 points alongside Leipzig going for the Champions League.
Tempted to say, I think Frankfurt might go on and grab that full spot now and they’ve got a little bit of a larger squad and you’ve got somebody like Muani who who’s having a fantastic season. Freiburg and Union, I don’t think they’ve got such a reliable goal scorer and I think that’s sort of played out by the fact that Frankfurt has scored 10 more goals than both sides as well. So super fascinating. Very quickly, title race, I think it’s interesting to point out that Dortmund were an absolutely incredible run and then it was their rivals that stopped them in their tracks last weekend.
Flash:
It was called Stinch. It was called.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Fair play. I mean it was a great game, really enjoyed it. Raphaël Guerreiro seems to love that match, always seems to score, but it was really good from Schalke to maintain their unbeaten run. Yes, they’re still second bottom but they’re clawing back the gap between them and daylight if you like. So I’m not sure we’ve got a title race but certainly relegation wise is very, very exciting.
Flash:
Yeah, I would say that Schalke and maybe Leverkusen are the two sides that have come out of the break but then they needed to. I mean I’d like to see Leverkusen make a run for it and just basically win every game. But as you’ll see this weekend they’ve got the biggest test of all. But listen, they’re all doing great and talking of great, let’s have a little look at the records.
There we go. 28.36 and Kev still sits at the top of all four shows at 17.62 units of profit, most of them because he sends them emails out for the players to score at any time and he just hits on a frightening regularity. Any profit or loss from Stinch will go onto Alex’s just like we did Serie A and Alex’s losses went onto [inaudible 00:06:52]. Okay, we’ve got six games to cover. Please get yourselves in the chat. Let’s go because the first game bucks my trench straight away because it’s the Friday night game. Kev, are you doing this game?
Kevin Hatchard:
I am, yeah. I think it’s going to be quite an interesting game because you’ve got two teams who are locked together on points, both in mid-table, both equally as far from the relegation zone as they are from the top six, and they’re talking about it in German media is the kind of game that can start you want to run whether it’s negative or positive. But I think the issue here really is that a relatively small Werder Bremen squad is quite stretched by injuries and illness. You’ve certainly got Miloš Veljković struggling with the calf problem. You’ve got guys like Marco Friedl, Christian Groß, Leonardo Bittencourt all struggling with illness and so there are gaps there with Werder. Absolutely. You might look at the fact that they beat Gladbach 5-1 in the reverse fixture, I’m not sure how relevant that is. Gladbach have been much better at home than they have away this season. They won eight times at home. They’ve beaten Leipzig, they’ve beaten Dortmund, they’ve beaten Bayern and I just think they’re in better shape personnel wise than Werder are for this one.
So you could go for the minus 120 on the money line. I think that’s absolutely fine, but I’m looking at a goal scorer because I think that’s maybe the way to play this but Werder, I don’t think they’re going to go down. I think they’re going to be absolutely fine but it’s interesting if you look at two seasons ago when they did go down, they’re exactly the same number of points at this stage of the season and barely picked up a point after that and they ended up going down.
Flash:
Yeah we got Gladbach at minus 120. Werder at plus 300. The draw plus 300. The goal line is over three at minus 105. I don’t see clean sheets here because Werder do find a way to score goals. I can’t trust Gladbach which bucks my trend because Friday nights I go with a home side not to get beat. So then that always gives me an advantage of them finding Stinch, how best to monetize that but I don’t go near Gladbach unless it’s to fade them. I can’t fade a home team on a Friday night.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, I can’t trust either of these two teams to be honest. I mean Gladbach, very Gladbach-esque if you like. Beat Bayern a few weeks ago and then in the following three matches they failed to score and then the match before Bayern they got humped by Hertha 4-1.
Flash:
Yeah, great day that was, great day.
Mark Stinchcombe:
You just can’t trust them. And then Kev mentions the Bremen’s 5-1 victory earlier on in the season then you actually look back to when these two played here back at the end of last season. Gladbach won 4-2 and I just think that perfectly encapsulates the randomness and the volatility you get, both of these two teams and the Bundesliga. I think you could almost make a case for anything here. I think it’s definitely worth knowing as Kev mentions the injuries that Bremen are having. I think it’s certainly catching up with them. It’s four defeats in five now, I think there will probably be an element of looking over their shoulders but I don’t think they need to kind of worry too much. But there’s always that sense that if they don’t get some of these players back quickly then maybe they could be engaged in a battle at the bottom. Particularly with, as I mentioned at the beginning of the show, Schalke’s improved form. So I know as you say, you mentioned you like to back teams at home on a Friday night, but I think maybe this is one to swerve.
Flash:
Oh it is one to swerve but I’ve then got to obviously contradict myself and say if you’re having a bet in this game, the only thing that looks right is Gladbach minus 120 to win the game. I mean, because you getting Gladbach at minus 150 to score twice. Werder do normally score goals especially in recent weeks but I can’t go 160 on them scoring twice. So that means they’re going to be like minus 170 just to get on the score sheet. If this was over two and a half then I think I’d probably be interested, or I’d go with Gladbach to win and both teams to score but because it’s Gladbach I’ve got to sit on the fence and say I’m not going near it and just stay completely calm. Let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks of game number one.
Hoffman got the email/text/telegram from, I was going to say the commentary king. I’m honestly, Kev, I’m going to join your fan club or if not join it, start one.
Kevin Hatchard:
Start one.
Flash:
Anytime goal scorer plus 210. Can you imagine the admin? Oh my god, giving out them rainbow little badges and that. Hoffman anytime goal scorer plus 210. Gets us off to a flying star on the Friday night. Let’s move on to the next game because from not wanting to get involved to getting involved, I am. It’s Augsburg at home to Schalke.
Augsburg at plus 130. Schalke at plus 210. Both really, really well organized but the home side are frightened of their own shadow and I mean that by, we don’t want to go too forward, don’t want to go 1-nil down. If we go 1-nil up, that’s great. That’ll be in the 80th minute. The draw is at plus 245. The over two and half at minus 105. But Stinch, under two and a half at minus 115 for these two looks an absolute stone waller, with a draw, a massive runner at halftime and if you want to draw over 90 minutes it’s at plus 245.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, I would be tempted by backing the unders because it’s two teams towards the foot of the table so it is that classic relegation six pointer. But what would put me off is A, it’s the Bundesliga and B, Schalke’s upturn in fortunes this calendar year. Seven games unbeaten now. They’ve scored at least two goals in the last three matches and generally they quite enjoy going to Augsburg. I think they’re unbeaten in 10 of the last visits there. But we know with Augsburg as well capable of absolutely anything when you think they’re on their sort of last legs.
I do think they’re a little bit short here, Augsburg, I don’t be backing them at this price but then I can maybe understand in a little way given how well they’ve done at home recently. They’ve won the last three on the trot at home as well. So yeah, I think if this was a Premier League game or in a league non-Bundesliga essentially, so essentially a non-heavy goal league, I would be tempted back the unders. But yeah, I just think there’s always that chance the league average kind of rears its head and the two teams can play out a bit of a goal fest.
Flash:
Yeah, see I’m the opposite way of thinking. I’m thinking okay, both of these sides…
Mark Stinchcombe:
Flash, it was 3-2 in this game earlier in the season and again I just think that perfectly encapsulates it.
Flash:
I know, honestly just rip that up, screw it up and chuck it out the window because Schalke’s now think… Right, this is our foundation, this is where we start the game. This is where we make sure that we grow into the game. Augsburg, they do that at home anyway and it comes up trumps room so it’s not broke. I see this as being two deep lines, midfield having a real battle and I think the quality of opportunities and chances Kev, that come along are not going to be golden. So I’ve got this nil-nil at halftime.
Kevin Hatchard:
It could be. It’s not a market I always look at to be honest, that halftime market, I’m always a bit scared off by that but I can see the logic. There’s going to be some trepidation from both teams. Schalke played ever so well against Dortmund. They have played really well in the last few weeks. They’ve been combative, they’ve been well organized defensively. Augsburg as you say, take a little while to play their way into games. I don’t think that’s a bad thing necessarily. I do like Augsburg especially at home. I think Enrico Maaßen has made some interesting signings alongside Stefan Reuter the sporting director and I think they’re trying to do the right things. So yeah, if you were going to look at it, I do like unders at minus 115 and I agree with Stinch completely about it being a goal heavy league, there’s no doubt about that, but I guess circumstance, the way these two play would probably lend itself to wonders.
Flash:
Yeah, I just don’t see many golden opportunities. Now obviously, VAR can get involved, set pieces are going to be strong from both… Gun against my head, I think that Augsburg may be pop Schalke’s bubble because I just feel that the physical strength of the home side and obviously being at home maybe just outweighs but with Schalke at the moment they’re just growing in belief, week in and week out. Let’s have a little look at the official pick because I.
Nearly went sort of overboard on this one. Morning Mitch, nice of you to get up and join us. Okay, I’ve gone first half draw at plus money. I was expecting it to be plus 100, maybe minus 105 but plus 110. Yeah, sign me up for that. I don’t see any goals in that game either. So you could go under one, if there is one, it’s a push.
Okay, let’s move on to game number three. We talk about anything… I said about this card dive being someone’s poison or someone’s honey. I’m struggling with this card because Stuttgart are at home plus 140 against Wolfsburg at plus 195. Now someone give me a shake here. Kev you can shake me or let’s just have a little look. Yeah, Kev you can shake me because how is this game under or over two and a half and the over two and a half is minus 105 when both of these sides could score two goals. I’ve got Wolfsburg at plus 175 to score twice. Stuttgart to score twice is at plus 135. And the high scoring draw, well I mean listen, it’s plus 240.
Kevin Hatchard:
Well look, there’s you bet right there, over two and a half at minus 105 because as Stinch has said it’s a goal heavy league and you look at Stuttgart, they’re not particularly strong defensively. I think they’ve got two poor goalkeepers at the club in Fabian Bredlow and Florian Müller. I think there’s a battle between those two but I don’t think either are of Bundesliga standards. And you look at Wolfsburg and they’ve been scoring freely on a regular basis. I was a bit annoyed that they didn’t get a couple against Union last weekend. I thought they were going to be able to do that. It didn’t quite work out but they play on the front foot and they’ve got something to play for because at the moment Conference League is within their grasp. But if they could put a decent run together between now and the end of the season, getting a Europa League spots not out of the question. They’ve got the quality to do that. They’ve got lots of attacking options.
And I just think yes, Bruno Labbadia might try and dig in and might try and make it tough for Wolfsburg but he hasn’t actually been able to do that since he arrived at the club. They’ve only got one clean sheet, that was at home against Köln. And Köln have admitted that they were pretty much feeling the after effects of Carnival for that game. So they’ve actually said that this week. So I don’t know what that tells us. So Stuttgart played well against Bayern but was still opened up a fair bit and I just don’t think we can trust either defensive units. So for me it’s goals all the way.
Flash:
Yeah, I mean you wouldn’t put anyone off Wolfsburg scoring twice at a massive plus 175 though Stinch.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, I was just going to say that that number does look big. I mean, I came into this game thinking I want to be with Wolfsburg and goals somehow so I couldn’t put anyone off back in that at all. Wolfsburg scored 34 goals in the last 15 games. So it’s a decent barometer there for getting two in this match. And we’ve spoken about Stuttgart, I mean they’re been conceding left, right and center on a regular basis. They’re not struggling to score. They’ve only failed to score in three of the last 14 and two of those were away to Dortmund and Leverkusen but they haven’t won nine of their last 10 so they’ve been scoring in games but they’ve definitely always been conceding essentially. So I don’t really want to complicate here and literally as sort of Kev said, back over 2.5, I mean it’s the outsider in the Bundesliga. The Bundesliga averages 3.17 goals per game.
It’s been an increase on last season which averaging 3.12 but still well over three. Yep, staggered really. I think if you want to have the line at 2.5 fine but you’d have over is a sort of minus 130, probably minus 125. You look at the raw sort of stats, 14 of Stuttgart, that’s 19 gone over 2.5. 12 of Wolfsburg’s last 17, two strike rates there of over 70% and we’re talking about odds that sort of 52%. And when they met earlier in the season it finished 3-2 and that there was a well over four expected goals. So if it was a weekend and I was sort of struggling for a bet and trying to be even a little bit more clever, I’d still be tempted to back over 3.5 so very much [inaudible 00:20:01].
Flash:
You’ll bet the both seems to score an over, I don’t see either of these keeping a clean sheet. That’s going to be like plus 125.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, I mean I can put anyone off that if you want to be a bit greedier as well but I just think don’t complicate it essentially. As you mentioned before, VAR, red cards and it just becomes a one-sided game for example, I think there’s a total train of thought that Wolfsburg could turn up and win 3-nil or they’ve been winning fives and sixes so potentially there as well. But I think there’s always, you know need to be aware that it’s not a case of oh we’ll see three goals, definitely we will be greedy and take the both teams to score angle. Sometimes there are reasons why that that’s not always the shrewdest approach.
Flash:
Okay, both teams to score in the first half is at plus 340. And [inaudible 00:20:47] says, either team to win an over three and half goal. So basically the 3-1, 3-2, anything over that is at plus 340 as well. Let’s have a little look at the official picks here because the over two and a half just jumps off the screen and they’re… Listen these boys don’t confer, these great minds think alike and if you do want to be a little bit greedier then you go both teams score and over two and half because I think that both score and plus 175 for Wolfsburg to score twice on their own. But the over two and half at minus 105 is getting two units, one off of Kev and one off of Stinch. So come on the goals.
Let’s move on because the doctor has been putting bandages on the visitors all week. Bochum at plus 470 against Leipzig at minus 180. Leipzig minus one at minus 110. I just want to see the spirit and what’s the word I’m looking for? The player’s mentality, the strength of mentality as [inaudible 00:21:47] throw that performance and result out of the window. Stinch, midweek they were absolutely demolished but they were that bad that they can throw out the window because you cannot look for any reasoning and just get straight back on the horse or the bike and ride.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah listen, Man City are arguably the best team in the world so you can accept losing but I don’t think you can accept maybe losing in the manner that they lost in. Yes, okay, we’ve seen… It’s quite bizarre actually. We’ve seen a few 7-nils recently, haven’t we? Or 7-1 with final Schalke. I think you can accept them losing but I think it’s the manner that they lost in. And for a Bochum side that were struggling up until their win last weekend it was four defeats on the trot. This has got to be the best time to go and face Leipzig because despite Leipzig’s prowess in terms of third in the league, they are susceptible to conceding goals against the teams at the bottom of the league. They shipped three vie Augsburg earlier in the season, they shipped two vie Hertha. They conceded against Schalke when Schalke were in a real sort of abysmal state.
So certainly, I mean you can see the number there minus 175 for Bochum to score. So certainly I think Bochum should be looking at this that they can definitely maybe get a point if they can maybe keep Leipzig down to sort of one goal or even two maybe. But for me again a real easy bet is the side of goals. Again, statistically you look purely at, I know we’ve got a goal line here of three, but we see that the overs is quite a chunky price at plus 115. You look purely at sort of over under 2.5. It’s a very good matchup. 67% of Bochum’s games have gone over 75%. And when Leipzig have entertained against, as I mentioned against these teams, they’re generally has been goals and when Bochum play against the bigger lights, they conceded the most goals in the league.
So there’s no surprise that they do ship a lot when they play. I mean, it’s 4-nil in the reverse. You look at them against Bayern 7-nil and 3-nil. Dortmund, 3-nil and 2-1. So I think the beauty here of taking overs is the line that Leipzig could eclipse by themselves. But rather than taking over three at plus 115, I’m happy to be a bit more pragmatic and at a similar odds take over 2.75 at minus 110. So yes I’ll lose a little bit on the price but here I’m definitely going to get at least a bit of profit if we see three goals with a half win rather than being sort of bang on correct. And we see Leipzig win 3-nil, 2-1 for example but then I just get my stake back and that’s not something… I don’t really want to have to sit there and hope for four goals.
So yeah, I think this is the perfect opportunity for both teams actually. Perfect opportunity for Leipzig to bounce back against the team that’s conceded 10 more goals than anyone else in the league but also for a Bochum side that looked a lot better, organized last week against Cologne. And yeah, I mean it’s 3:30 kickoff on Saturday so I think a good chance to maybe if you want to add it to a parlay amongst some other games as well, you could maybe even sort of back sort of over 2.5 instead to throw into your accumulator.
Flash:
Yeah, I’m just looking at Leipzig thinking, you turn up, it’s all about the three points. It’s not about how many goals you score, it’s about just getting back the winning mentality. Do you have any problems with Leipzig traveling to Bochum, Kev?
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah potentially. I think the problem with the performance against City was actually that they were their own worst enemies. Look, I agree with Stinch. City are one of the best teams in the world, they have one of the best coaches in the world, they’ve got one of the best center forwards in the world. But a lot of the goals came from terrible marking that set plays, basic errors, not responding to the press so is the kind of defeat that can really, really damage you. So it wouldn’t go anywhere near Leipzig in the match odds here. I wouldn’t want to be on side with them at all.
Bochum I think actually gave one of their best displays in the season last week as they went to Köln and I thought they were outstanding defensively, got the early goal and played with real maturity in quality. So I think Stinch is right, I think it’s about goals here. I wouldn’t have a problem with over three plus 115 but I think he’s absolutely right, over 2.75 goals makes a lot of sense. So yeah, if I had to go with a bet here, that’s absolutely the way I would go.
Flash:
Okay, yeah I just… I’m cheering Leipzig on because I’ve got them to come second to obviously Bayern. Yeah, they’ve got to just win the game for me. So again, I’ve just got to leave it alone but I did see Leipzig to be leading halftime around the plus 110. So come on Leipzig, get me my three points. Get closer because Dortmund play Bayern in a few weeks. There it is, over 2.75 at minus 110 for Stinch.
Okay, let’s move on to game number five. Wow. The home side are certainly licking their wounds. Union at plus 140. They are breathing through a straw, their confidence tank is lowering by the week and Frankfurt are at plus 210. Well I would say that maybe they’re the favorites in this game, but the draw is a plus 225. The under over set at two at minus 130. Kev, I thought that’s quite low especially for Bundesliga. Frankfurt likes playing on the front foot and Union they do score goals at home.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, the goal line’s wrong, I think. And this is what we’re looking for, right?
Flash:
Yeah.
Kevin Hatchard:
These are the kind of situations we look for, over two at minus 130. As you know minus 130 is not normally a price I touch, I like to go a bit bigger than that but here just accept the gift because I think… I wonder if this is to do with the fact that Union have had a couple of goalless draws recently at home. They’ve drawn nil-nil with Schalke. They’ve drawn nil-nil with Köln. But generally at home they score goals and Frankfurt are a front foot side as well.
They’ll be really wounded by what happened against Napoli but they’ll have Randal Kolo Muani back, he’ll have had a full week off because he was suspended. He was never going to be able to play in that game against Napoli. So I just do think we’ll get goals here. And the other thing as well is that it’s not the kind of game where you just kind of dig in for a draw because these two are direct rivals for a Champion’s League spot so they know the value of being able to beat the other one and get three points up on them. So I expect quite an entertaining game and I just think over two at minus 130 is absolutely the way to go and if you want it to be bolder, go over two and a half, why not?
Flash:
And contrasting styles as well here Stinch because we’ve got Union who want to get stuck in and out muscle you and sort of put themself across you and you’ve got Frankfurt who love to play intricate passing, pass and move. I’m wondering if Union are going to give Frankfurt any space because if Frankfurt get the space they pour more scorn on Union. And Frankfurt at plus 210 is a winner and draw no bet at plus 125 is another option.
Mark Stinchcombe:
I think Frankfurt potentially overpriced with that extra day’s rest. And also the fact that Muani didn’t play in the week as well. I think we saw Union against Saint-Gilloise basically with those late goals going in, kind of again encapsulating where they’re at right now is that this squad is thin and they were favorites to progress from the tie. They were quite heavy favorites to progress from the tie. I don’t think anyone saw the first leg coming with the 3-3, but I think it’s just the volatility that the fixture congestion can bring. It can kind of swing either way essentially. Now I think over two is an absolute cracking bet like show me another Bundesliga match this season with two teams fighting for Champions League football in this league where you can get over two. I think it’s a fabulous bet.
Just to give maybe a little bit of the reason behind maybe why it’s there. Both teams are overachieving in terms of expected goals offensively, but I don’t, in my mind you can’t have the line drop down this low with these odds as a result of that. I think there’s too many nuances that you can’t factor in. As I say, the fixture congestion, which again can go both ways. The fact that Muani being rested, Frankfurt having an extra day off as well. I just think there’s too many unknowns that mean you can’t be 100% confident that you can push the line down this far. And look, just to give you the stats very, very briefly, Union’s matches average 2.67 per game. Frankfurt’s 3.33. 79% of Union’s games go over 1.5 goals. 96% of Frankfurt’s go over 1.5 goals. If we see over 1.5 goals, we on a [inaudible 00:31:05] beyond where we get our money back.
Flash:
Yeah, exactly.
Mark Stinchcombe:
The only way that we lose our money if there’s zero one goals and look, I don’t think if you’re a proactive Bundesliga better you bet under 1.5 goal lines essentially. So for me this is my banker, haven’t had many this season but for me it’s a banker at the line and the prices.
Flash:
Yeah, I think you both think that it’s an absolute gift and it’s wrapped all nice and it’s got a bow on it. TS Live, obviously we normally do a Q&A, but as this is relevant and obviously you can go into the clip. Kev, if you used to pick the money line here, would you say that Frankfurt or would you say Union or is it just a straight, no leave it, anything could happen?
Kevin Hatchard:
No, it doesn’t appeal to me because for all of their fixture congestion and all of the issues they’ve had, Union’s home form is still very, very good. They’re incredibly hard to beat at home. Their history in the Bundesliga will tell you that. They’re short history but they don’t lose many and they’re an incredibly hard team to beat easily. Köln came close. Köln played quite well in that goalless draw. Schalke had moments as well, so somebody’s going to do it at some stage but it wouldn’t be backing Frankfurt with any certainty because away from home they could be a little bit flaky as well.
Flash:
Yeah, okay then let’s have a little look at the official picks and listen, either of these sides could score three goals but you only want either side to score two to be on a guaranteed push and I don’t see maybe clean sheets here either, but I did leave it alone. Over two at minus 130. Listen, great minds think alike again, two units going on at minus 130 on just being over two goals and don’t care who gets them and if they both score, I fancy it’s an absolute winner.
Okay, move on to the next game because I thought the numbers were wrong here. Mainz at plus 115 at home against Freiburg, plus 235. Freiburg coming off of obviously midweek defeat. More energy exertions [inaudible 00:33:07], so draws at plus 250. The under over is at two and a half with minus 105. I was looking at Freiburg not to score at plus 190 and then I thought I just go with a side, I’m not complicating it.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, I think that would be where I’d want to go as well. I think I mentioned at the top of the show with Freiburg, the one with a thin squad that operate on fine margins. A lot of their success, they’ve had a lot of penalties for example this season and you actually, you look at them in recent weeks, I think three of their matches recently the opposition had a man sent off. Ironic that they had a man sent off last night against Juventus. So yeah, I think I’d want to oppose Freiburg as well, given as we mentioned again the Thursday to the Sunday turnaround, it’s not something I’d massively be strong on. I think the goal probably looks about okay maybe as it’s Bundesliga. Overs is tempting. But again, yeah, I think you’re right. I’m just not sure whether Freiburg would ultimately contribute to the score line given some of their injuries they’ve got surrounding the squad.
Flash:
Yeah, Mainz at home are a standing dish. I mean, Freiburg have got away with absolute murder because the points they’ve picked up and obviously you know that I’m dogging them Kev, but 90th minute winner against a side last week in Hoffenheim who most teams would’ve beat by five. They are average and they’re not going the right way.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, I think look, they’ve done brilliantly. There’s no question about that. They’ve been absolutely outstanding compared to what we could reasonably expect them to do and it’s a consistent body of work. They qualify for the Europa League last season. Given the resources they have, Christian Streich is doing an unbelievable job. So that’s the first thing. The second thing is just sheer fixture congestion’s going to have an impact, regression to the means going to have an impact. But make no mistake, if they finish in the top half, which they should. But if they do, that’s a huge achievement. This is a club that’s been battling relegation for most of its recent history, but in the last couple of seasons they’ve been absolutely superb. Mainz are strong at home, they’ve looked good going forward recently. I’d be tempted by the over one and a half team total at plus 115.
But actually the way I’d look is if you’re going to have a bet on this, I was just looking at the early time goal scorer market again. Karim Onisiwo’s plus 240, now he’s just come back from knee injury. He was on as a sub against Hertha, played okay, played pretty well, nearly scored a late goal in that one. But Ludovic Ajorque is plus 210. Now he’s got two goals in his last three games. Scored in the 4-nil home win against Gladbach, scored in the game at Hertha last weekend, scored a brilliant goal from the edge of the area. He’s been playing well for a while but the goals weren’t coming but now they have. So if you wanted a fun bet at a bigger price, I think Ludovic Ajorque to score at any time for Mainz is plus 240 is the way I’d go.
Flash:
Yeah, plus 190 Freiburg not to score though Kev, and yet they find a way to get some set piece or some penalty or some VAR and I’m just not on Freiburg and I’m just glad that I went with Juve all the way midweek. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because it’s the home side, I mean they overrun them. I think their legs are, I wouldn’t put anyone off of Mainz halftime as well, but Mainz at money line at plus 115 is just a number. Don’t even complicate it. If you’re going with a home side then just go with the money line.
Okay, time for a Q&A and I know there’s going to be a few because we’ve got two big games that probably you want to know why we didn’t have picks in them? But first of all, I’d like you to subscribe. If you like this video, maybe a little thumbs up, it’s a bit of a bonus, it’s a little pat on the back for Kev, for Mark and obviously for Alex, even though he’s not here. And also ring the bell, which means we’ll do our work in making sure that we notify you and you never miss any content again. If you like all your odds and props then betus.tv, no, what was it? Betustv.com/odds. If you find your props or odds that you like, then put in betustv.com/fifty and there’s a $50 bet waiting for you there. Okay, this is the first one. We’ve got to ask both of you. First of all, Stinch, why no Leverkusen, Bayern bet?
Mark Stinchcombe:
Bayern, I think I’m round about minus 180 ish. I was trying to find a way to get with Bayern, maybe Bayern on the Asian handicap, maybe minus 0.75, maybe minus one. But I just kept coming back to the fact that Leverkusen is in a really good spot right now. Very dangerous on the counter-attack as we all know. Diaby looked excellent last night.
Flash:
Oh, for the last six weeks to be fair.
Mark Stinchcombe:
Yeah, I mean last night was… Well I watched him a bit more closely maybe than other weeks because it is Europa League and obviously it was only against Ferencváros. But yeah, we know long term he is a good player. And I’m still a bit sort of shaky on Yann Sommer just because he is not Manuel Neuer, not anything against Sommer himself, but he is also new to the club and still getting a relationship built up with that defense and maybe playing a bit of a higher line than he is used to. So probably we see goals but again, Leverkusen are another team that can be unpredictable at the best of time. So the bets that I put up, I’ve put three bets this week, were just far much more stronger than I could sort of lay my hat on in that game, but it should be a terrific watch. I think it’s Sunday afternoon. Yeah, Sunday afternoon for European viewers and then we’ve got the Italian and El Classico darbies after that. So Sunday’s a fantastic day in football.
Flash:
Yeah, don’t get any better. Okay, so the other one is obviously the normal one is Bayern, and Bayern to win and both teams to score. But you could do both teams to score and over three and a half goals. This could be like 5-3, neither of them are going to take a backward step. I’ve not gone near it myself just because I just don’t know. The other game Kev is Dortmund versus Köln, because Köln… You gave Bochum a lot of credit for last week’s performance. I thought Köln were toothless, they created very, very little. I know you commentated on the game. It was awful from Köln.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, it was a bit of a mix really. It was a mix of Köln not playing particularly well and Bochum being excellent. And I think the early penalty made a massive difference because it gave Bochum something to bite down on, something to protect. I think that psychologically gave them a huge boost. But look, this is a Köln team that’s failed to score in five of his last six. That’s obviously a huge problem and they’ve had some injuries, there were some fitness problems. But also Steffen Tigges, I don’t think he’s necessarily the way forward. Davie Selke had fitness problems since he came in. But not quite sure what Köln you’re going to get and we’re not quite sure how Dortmund are going to react to what was a pretty bad week for them.
Truth be told, they went out the Champions League against Chelsea. They blew a lead twice against Schalke, didn’t play particularly well. Did have a big chance at 2-1 to wrap it up with Jamie Bynoe-Gittens couldn’t quite do it and so how are they going to respond? So it just felt like a game where there were too many branches really, too many things that could happen. There weren’t any prices that jumped out on me so that’s why I’ve left that one to the side.
Flash:
No obviously and I’m cheering on Köln. And this is the type of game where Köln could go and frustrate, out work, out muscle that talented midfield of Dortmund. So I will be cheering on Köln just because I want Leipzig to overtake them, as worst case scenario and finish second to Bayern.
And let’s have a little look at all the official picks because I think we’re going to see some yellow. First of all, Kev has obviously sent out his telegram to the Hoffman family. Anytime scorer at plus 210. Stuttgart… Wolfsburg over two an half at minus 105, just looks wrong but it’s so right. And Union and Frankfurt over two at minus 130. Well that would probably look wrong if it was over two and a half. Love it. Minus 130 and both of them are with Alex or even though it’s Stinch in disguise. Stuttgart, Wolfsburg over two and a half at minus 105. Bochum, Leipzig over 2.75 at minus 110. And Union and Frankfurt over two at minus 130, gone one step further and made it a banker for me. Augsburg, Schalke first half draw plus 110. Got that nil-nil and I think that should have been a banker but I’ve gone with the fading of Freiburg. Mainz at home, money line plus 115. Still like Freiburg though not to score at plus 195, but my banker is Mainz money line at plus 115.
For everyone in the chat, we really appreciate everything you do. Remember I’ve got the FA Cup quarter finals, four fixtures, just me and you, no other experts. You are the experts so please come and join me. I think that’s 12 o’clock Eastern time. But Kev, two games you are doing, you’re going to do tonight’s game. Gladbach and what’s the other one?
Kevin Hatchard:
Dortmund, Köln. So good to be part of title race. So yeah, it’ll be an exciting game, win, lose or draw.
Flash:
Yeah, they don’t like each other. Stinch, good job this week mate. I know you’ve done like three different shows. Really appreciate your knowledge and obviously helping and it always helps when you go and sweep the Europa League as well. So from Kev, from Stinch, from myself and everyone at Bet US, may all your bets be winners. Have a great weekend. It’s the week off next week and then we’ll be raring to go as we basically go through the final stretch of all the leagues in Europe. You take care.
