Flash:
Welcome to BetUS soccer channel. It’s the Bundesliga show and it’s Match Day 27. I know that on the other leagues are at 29 and 30, but remember, there’s less teams in the Bundesliga. Now we are America’s favorite sportsbook. So we invite you to subscribe and get us closer to 5,000 subscribers for our first season covering the four major European leagues and the Europa League and the Champions League. Maybe we’ll touch on both of them draws that happened on Friday morning.
Flash:
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Flash:
Now, the big thing is that’s despite your presenter, and producer, and graphics. I take the blame for everything. Kev, I want to throw a caveat in here, but you are my experts. Okay. So I should really introduce you in case someone’s watching for the first time and they have actually found their way to the holy grail. The voice of European soccer is Kevin Hatchard and his wing man and partner is the master of late goals and the owner of both teams to score and Over. And it’s @AlexClassicTips. But again, I’m going to come to you first, Kevin. Sorry for being so presumptuous that people would know who you were.
Flash:
I found this the hardest Bundesliga card all season, all season bar none.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, I think it is quite tricky. And I think what’s made it harder is that there’s been a COVID wave in Germany. And what that’s done is it’s taken out three of the head coaches. So the game I’m doing on Friday night between Bochum and Borussia Mönchengladbach, we’ve got this really weird situation where it’s two assistants going up against each other, which is very, very unusual.
Flash:
Right.
Alex:
Maybe Gladbach will play better with the assistant.
Kevin Hatchard:
Well, they did last weekend without Adi Hütter. So yeah, maybe. So that’s a strange situation. You’ve got players being out. You’ve got games that have been rearranged. So we had a game in midweek between Mainz and Dortmund.
Flash:
What a bad game that was.
Kevin Hatchard:
Got to affect things. But they found a way to win. And that is something that even though they’ve had so many injuries and not really played that well in a lot of games, but if they can win games without playing well, that’s probably a good sign. So we have a title race. Whether we thought we were going to get one or not, we have a title race, four point difference at the top. But yeah, I think it was a tricky week this week because you’ve got a lot of teams that are inconsistent right now and COVID’s having an effect.
Flash:
And Alex we’ve got to say, and always throw in that caveat because it’s the week after the Champions League and it’s the week before the international break. So we’ve got the likes of Leverkusen, Frankfurt, and now they’ve obviously got to make sure that they don’t slip up because they need points just in case other teams drop away that they can cement a top four or top six.
Alex:
Yeah, it’s weird that Bayern Munich dropped four points in the last two matches. They are just four points clear at the top of the table. Like Kevin mentioned, there are big, big problems with COVID. And I think that the team with the most problems is Arminia Bielefeld. Right now they’re missing around eight or nine players. This is why Mainz are huge favorites to win that home game. Not only that, but also they’re playing better at home.
Alex:
As you said, Eintracht Frankfurt and Leverkusen are coming after European commitments and mostly Eintracht Frankfurt who were forced to play on extra time on Thursday. So that will affect badly the players. And I think that they also partied after that amazing qualification in the quarter final. So I think that there is plenty of value this weekend in Bundesliga.
Flash:
Okay, well, make sure you get yourselves in the chat. We’ve got seven games for you. And also what we’ll do is we’ll have a Q&A before we give you the official soccer picks at the end. The big one is obviously Bayern only four points clear, but we’ve got to have a little look at the records. If we can just stick them up, please. You can see that we’re over 15.8 or … Yeah, over 15 units of profit, which is great. Only the presenter is struggling at the moment. So 15.54. I was just giving myself a little bit more of an angle there.
Flash:
But please, get yourselves in the chat because honestly I need all the help I can get on this week’s card. And if I get and see something in there, then I will probably look to add it. Okay. So Kev, going great at 14.17 last week, 2-0 and two big plus monies. And it’s always nice to go with a anytime goal score and they score six.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah. It helps. If you’ve got a situation where you’ve got six goals and you just need Nkunku to get one of them. He was terrific again, set up a couple of goals as well. Richly deserves his first call up to the senior national team squad for France. And he has been absolutely sensational. Just in terms of this Bochum – Gladbach game, I think the odds are wrong. I think it’s as simple as that.
Flash:
Well, let me give them. Should I give the odds?
Kevin Hatchard:
You can. I can see them there, but yeah, let’s do that.
Flash:
Kev, why don’t you have a go? Go on. You have a go. Do it in your commentator’s voice. Come on.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Flash:
Start me off with Bochum versus Gladbach, please.
Kevin Hatchard:
This is my commentator’s voice. So Gladbach, the favorites, +135, I think that’s too short. Bochum +200 on the money line. And I think if you look at this season as a body of work for both of them, doesn’t really make a lot of sense. Gladbach have only won a couple of games on the road. Bochum have only lost three times at home. They’ve beaten Bayern. They’ve drawn with Dortmund. They regularly score goals. And Gladbach for me, yes they beat Hertha. But Hertha are appalling. So I don’t know how much we can really glean from that.
Kevin Hatchard:
There were some interesting reports came out in the last few days about the lack of respect shown to Adi Hütter, the coach by some of the players. Players turning up late for meetings. Players openly criticizing the coach in front of everybody else. And so it’s still not a happy camp. And you look at their away records. They haven’t kept clean sheets away from home in any of their last 17 Bundesliga away games. That’s the worst run for 18 years. So this is a team that’s regularly conceding goals away from home. And I just don’t think they look like a team. I haven’t felt that for quite some time. So for them to be the favorites away at a very, very good Bochum team, I don’t understand that at all.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s put them numbers up and I’ll do it properly. Shall I? I gave you a chance and we’ll get back to you, commentator. The total’s at two and a half with the favorite being at -135. Look at that bottom right. The draw at +255 that Bochum could win, Gladbach could win, the draws. But the goals, I think we are looking at goals, Alex. Bochum are +145 to score twice, and Gladbach are at +105 to score twice. Is this one of my lovely 2-2s?
Alex:
I don’t know if Gladbach will score twice, to be honest. I think that they will contribute on the score sheet obviously. But I think that if you want us to have a safe play or a parlay play here, I think that you should go with goals Over 2.5 at -135. Gladbach lately are struggling at the back. Yes, they kept a clean sheet against Hertha, but like Kev said, anyone can beat Hertha nowadays, but we’ll talk more about them later on.
Alex:
So I think that this is an Overs game. I think that Kevin is on point with his official pick here. I think that the value is there. But again, if you want to play a safe bet, Over 2.5 is the play. And you can push it forward and you can do it on Alex classic both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals probably at +100, because this is a 2-1 type of game, maybe a 3-1 type of game, even a 2-2. You never know. But the Alex classic is on the cards obviously.
Flash:
Yeah. I mean, Kev, I mean, you’ve been on point near enough all season, and that’s why you’re 14 units up. I couldn’t actually pick the winner here, because as you’ve said earlier, with that arrogance and with that ill discipline, you never know what you’re going to get from the visitors. And that’s the problem because they’re big, they’re strong. Bochum are big and strong, and mentally strong. But if Gladbach go up here, fireworks could go off.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, it could do. I think the problem with Gladbach and the other reason I think that they’re the wrong price is that Nico Elvedi has COVID. He’s one of their best defenders. So there’s a problem straight away. They don’t have Jonas Hofmann who could be out until April. He’s injured. I think he’s their most creative player or certainly their most consistent creative force. Alassane Pléa has been better. There’s no question about that recently. I think he’s been involved in something like seven goals in his last six games. So that’s a very long overdue set of results for him. But he’s got that.
Alex:
This should be normally his every week.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, completely.
Alex:
Performance, because this is the type of player he is.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah.
Flash:
And remember the Friday night. Remember it’s Friday night. We very rarely get an away win on a Friday night for … I know it’s mad to say that, but it normally favors the home side. It’s almost like the fans are up for it more. Is there any restrictions on the fans, Kev?
Kevin Hatchard:
Well, there are in some places. So Bayern were hoping to get a full set of fans, but that’s not going to be the case now. But generally in most areas of the country we’re back to full sets of fans. I think Köln are allowed a full stadium against Dortmund on Sunday.
Flash:
Wow.
Kevin Hatchard:
Look, I’ve been there on a Friday night to Bochum. I’ve actually been in with the fans at the Ruhrstadion. They make a hell of a lot of noise. There’s all sorts-
Flash:
As in, was you working or was you drunk?
Kevin Hatchard:
No, no. I went just as an observer.
Flash:
You went as Alex.
Kevin Hatchard:
Got hit. Yeah. Got hit with lots of beer, which was great when they scored a late winner. That was when they were in the second division actually, comeback winning against Darmstadt. That was great fun.
Kevin Hatchard:
I know how loud it is. I know how great fans are. And I know just how well they’ve played at home this season. Technically, yes, Gladbach are better. But Bochum are a better team and they’re at home. You’re right to point out the likes because it’s interesting. You listen to coaches. You listen to players that do talk about the flood lit aspect here.
Flash:
Oh, it’s brilliant. It’s brilliant-
Kevin Hatchard:
And it gives them that-
Flash:
… because the atmosphere is better. There’s a little dew on the pitch where the ball zips around. Honestly, it’s one of those where home teams don’t get tired as much on a Friday night or a night game. I mean, it’s strange.
Flash:
The worst one is obviously that half past 11, 12 o’clock kickoff lunchtime because your body is not actually ready to play football. The three o’clocks were bad for me. To be fair the 7:45s weren’t too much better.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because you are on your own. But I have actually also penciled in that Bochum basically there just Over 2.5 goals in the game at -145 for a potential parlay at the end. But we will discuss that. We will have a board meeting.
Flash:
Bochum team total Over 1.5 at +145. There he is. He’s found the value as well. And Mike’s gone with Bochum and Over 1.5. Obsen is saying take a shot Over 3. Obsen, just relax, man. We might just get you just the Over 2.5 at -135 and we’ll stick it in a parlay and we’ll get it to like +150.
Flash:
Let’s move on to the second game because I had as much trouble with this game as I did with every other one. It’s Fürth at +380, Freiburg up -140. Freiburg strong side home or away. But just when you think you’ve got them, they all let you down. The draws are massive, +305. And again, I did lean towards the draw. The Under or Over is at 2.5, Over being at -125. Alex, do we see Over 2.5 goals in which case the -125 could go towards a parlay?
Alex:
Yeah. I think that we will see Over 2.5 here easily. And I think that you should stick it in a parlay with Bochum versus Gladbach. The pair of them I think that it’ll give you a very, very nice price at almost +300. Freiburg are on fire right now, unbeaten in so many matches. They’re playing for the Champions League sports. And as we know, Bayern and Dortmund are top of the table and they will remain there until the end of the season.
Alex:
But after that, we have Leverkusen, Leipzig, Freiburg, and Hoffenheim, all of them separated by just one point with Leipzig, Freiburg, and Hoffenheim at 44. So imagine how important is this match for Freiburg just before the international game to secure, to maintain the pressure on Leipzig and the Leverkusen there. Given the fact that Leipzig are playing Eintracht Frankfort and that Leverkusen are on the road against Wolfsburg in a match they’re missing a ton of players, some of their most important players. And Freiburg in my opinion, will have to go all in this one.
Alex:
But Greuther Fürth lately are scoring goals. So you would expect Greuther to score goals. They have nothing to play for. I think that they are already thinking about zweite Bundesliga. So I think that this is their time to shine. Many of those players are thinking, “Okay, maybe next season some of the Bundesliga sides will see us and we will get a nice transfer to. Okay,” not to top sides because we’re not talking about any players of Greuther Fürth going to top sides in Bundesliga. But I don’t own Augsburg, Union Berlin maybe, depending who’s going down between Stuttgart and Arminia. So many of the players are giving everything. This is my impression just for the sake to be observed, “Ah, watch me. I’m good. Take me in your team because I’m-
Flash:
Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. Just definitely the window. And it’s even more so after this international break. You watch players that you’ve not seen since September, the [inaudible 00:15:17] strikers that will score like four or five goals in the last seven games and people will go, “Oh, we’ll take a chance with him.” He’s had six months off. And this is what, to be fair to Fürth, they’ve like put some energy and some hunger into their games. Remember, for the first four months of the season, it was Fürth-nil. It was just basically them not to score. Obviously it didn’t come up every week, but it was always, we’d beat up on Fürth every single week, Kev. But now all of a sudden for betting purposes, it’s not straightforward at all.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah. I think there was a period of adjustment. And I think we’ve called that pretty well, actually this season between the three of us, because I think you recognize that a team is well below the standard required. And while you can with the market, you beat up on them. But you also have to be kind of humble enough to recognize when that team started to adjust and when they’ve started to get the results that they weren’t getting early on.
Kevin Hatchard:
I still think they’re the weakest team in the league by far, but what we have seen is why the club has stuck by the coach, Stefan Leitl, who I think’s done a terrific job and they have scored more goals recently. Branimir Hrgota who doesn’t have a good record at this level has been scoring goals, some penalties, some non penalty goals. And I do think they can contribute here.
Kevin Hatchard:
The two takeaways I took really from this, looking at the prices, I think Freiburg are too short.
Flash:
Yeah.
Kevin Hatchard:
I think if you look at Fürth’s home form, the eye catching result was obviously them getting smashed at home by Leipzig. But look, that can happen to anybody against Leipzig. But actually their home forms have been pretty good. They beat Union. They beat Hertha. They’ve had some good results at home. They beat Mainz. So it’s not an easy place to go anymore. And I just don’t fancy Freiburg as much as the market suggests. So I think there are goals here. I think both teams will play on the front foot and I think this could be quite good fun.
Flash:
Okay. And the market’s actually moved because this was Over 2.5 goals for this yesterday, it was -120. It’s now -125. So the money’s coming in for just the Over 2.5, because listen, let’s not beat around a bush. Freiburg could go there and win 3-0. So let’s just make sure you don’t start complicating with both teams to score and the Over.
Flash:
Alex, if I had to push you for a winner, would it just be the obvious or would it be a draw?
Flash:
Yeah, no, that says it all. No, don’t. Please, don’t … Do not add to that because … is how I was for 12 hours going through this pile. And I’ve got my little Bosky who’s obviously the one below my big Bosky busting me for my picks. And I’m like-
Alex:
Same here. Same here is-
Flash:
And I’m like-
Alex:
… from yesterday the same thing, the messages-
Flash:
And I’m like-
Alex:
When are you putting your picks in, man?
Flash:
This is so, so tough. And I went, “Probably the toughest Bundesliga card all season.” And she went, “Seriously?” And I’m, “My god, honestly.” Right, let’s have a little look at the official picks because this is really, really tricky, but we’ve just gone straight Over 2.5 at minus-
Alex:
I love it. I love it.
Flash:
At -120.
Alex:
Again, I think that you should stick it in your parlay that with the-
Flash:
Yeah, the parlay comes out +220, +220. So at 3.2, if you want to go Bochum and Fürth. I wrote it down. I’ve ringed it. I’ve like categorized it. So we will revisit that and maybe even find a third member to go in or we get one of them out and put another one.
Flash:
And let’s go towards game number three, please because this is the game that I was probably most confident. And that’s because of the home side. It’s Hertha versus Hoffenheim. So when you read Hertha, you read Fürth because that’s … And we’ve basically swapped them over, Fürth for the first half of the season. And now we’re on failing Hertha.
Flash:
Hertha at +335, Hoffenheim at -135, which is a bit skinny. Total is Under Over 3 goals. I’m not sure that the home side contribute. The draw at +325. I’m going to come to you first Kev because, all right, we’ve said about Hertha. Sorry. Yeah, we said about Hoffenheim not being as good away from home. But they’ve still been scoring goals. Scoring goals is enough to beat Hertha.
Kevin Hatchard:
It could well be. And it certainly wouldn’t put anybody off backing Hoffenheim here because Hertha confidence wise are on the floor. It just isn’t working. And the reason it wasn’t working was the coach. And they’ve dispensed with Tayfun Korkut who I said when he was appointed, should never have been appointed in the first place. This is a guy that has a very, very limited record at Bundesliga level. And I do believe it was his personal relationship with Fredi Bobic that effectively got him the job. And once he did get the job, that’s what kept him in a job.
Kevin Hatchard:
They’ve gone quite old school and they brought in Felix Magath. I don’t think that’s necessarily a terrible move. This is a guy who won the Bundesliga title with Wolfsburg back in 2009. He’s won titles with Bayern.
Alex:
When? When? When?
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, it was a long time ago, but the thing that’s interesting and I get-
Flash:
Respect, respect. He’s a legend of the Bundesliga.
Kevin Hatchard:
I understand the-
Alex:
Roy Hodgson type.
Kevin Hatchard:
The reservations. I do get it. I understand the reservations. And look, he’s had some very strange appointments. It didn’t work at Fulham. He’s had a very odd time being the kind of technical director with Wolfsburg. So I get it. However, the one thing he can do is he could organize the side. And that is a group of players that needs to be challenged, needs to be told off effectively, and needs to be really, really pushed mentally and physically. I don’t expect it to be long-term, but I think for now, it’s fine. The problem they have this weekend is he can’t be there because he’s got COVID. So …
Alex:
He came. He signs with the team and directly COVID. Oh, thank you.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, he literally arrived, got COVID and left. So his assistant, Mark Fotheringham, he used to pay for Fulham. He is going to get the gig. And I think that is a problem because I think you need Magath to kind of make that impact immediately. This is a nightmare game to start with for them. But I think once this is out the way, you’ve got seven games stretch and let’s see what he can do. But I’ll tell you one thing. They’ve got a hell of a lot more of a chance staying up under Magath than they did under Korkut.
Flash:
Oh yeah. And see the other one is then if you are going to stay in games, you’ve got to make sure you don’t give the opposition anything early, Alex. And Mike’s already gone in with Hoffenheim half time at +125. And this is the one I’ve got to, I’ve got to address this in the chat because Zantie said, “Hertha will win this match, mark my words.” Zantie whereabouts are you so that we can send the medicine. Alex.
Alex:
He might be right. You never know in this world what is happening.
Flash:
Oh, he’s not right. He’s not right. I’ve got like one selection this week and this is it.
Alex:
Again, you are going with the selection because the last time the only selection that lost was the one that you were also on it with me, you know?
Alex:
I don’t know. Yes. They say that clubs are said to enjoy a new manager bounce. When they appoint a new boss, a fresh face comes in. The slate is whipped out. Players give their best again, confidence returns, blah, blah, blah. But he’s almost 70 years old. His last managerial gig was in China in 2017. He’s in pension. Don’t bring a guy from pension to save yourself from relegation.
Flash:
Is he? Is he? How long is he contracted for? Is it not like …
Kevin Hatchard:
It’s just to the end of the season.
Alex:
The end of season.
Flash:
Okay. So it’s a stock gap. That stinks. If that is say 18 months, that he could bring them back up and then fresh start.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah. But the caveat to that would be Flash, that actually, if you look at last season, what happened with Köln. They were spiraling under Gisdol and then they brought Friedhelm Funkel in and everybody went, “What are you doing?” Old school, the players won’t get it. They know he’s only there till the end of the season. They really responded to it. They really responded to it and they stayed up and it can work.
Kevin Hatchard:
I don’t think anybody’s under any illusions that he’s going to be there beyond the end of the season. But I think we’re actually at the point now where this is on the players and this is down to self-preservation for them, because the temptation is to think that, “Well, he’s like a supply teacher.” They know he is only going to be there for a few weeks. Why are they going to listen?
Flash:
Yeah.
Kevin Hatchard:
I think for their reputations, they have to listen, and they are in serious danger of being locked in to being second division players next season. So I actually think in their own interest, they might realize, “Oh wow, actually we’ve got to perform now.”
Flash:
Yeah. Maybe after the international break, they’ll come back. And this might be a team either to just steer clear of, don’t get involved because there will be some wonky results. There always is from that first week of April to the second or third week of May, when the season ends, you see teams that haven’t scored goals start scoring goals.
Flash:
And the other thing I was going to say is, and this is just a quick one, gents, because we often see this. I’ve not seen a 3-3 draw in, and I don’t want to be hexing it in this game obviously, because I’ve gone with Hoffenheim to win and Over 1.5, but I’ve not seen a 3-3 draw for such a long while.
Kevin Hatchard:
No. I had a crazy 3-2 a few weeks ago when Mainz beat Leverkusen. And although in general Bundesliga has been very good for goals.
Flash:
Yeah. But not 3-3. It’s like 6-1 or 5-1 and we always-
Alex:
And why did you bring up the 3-3 draw theory for this match when you know that Hertha will never score three times?
Flash:
Well let’s hope they do. Oh no, no, don’t Hertha. Sorry. Let’s Hoffenheim. Let’s just get off this game. Let’s get the official picks because I’ve not … I went with Hertha just to win money line.
Alex:
Let’s also note that Hoffenheim are fighting for the Champions League spots.
Flash:
No, exactly. Yeah. Let’s be positive. Let’s end on a positive because I’ve gone at -110 Hoffenheim and Over 1.5. You’ve gone with Hoffenheim money line at -135. That’s exactly where I started as well. But obviously I had it in a parlay with two other teams and they got ditched. Okay. Let’s move off this game because it’s not a good one.
Flash:
Okay. Stuttgart versus Augsburg. Stuttgart at +105 looks trap. Augsburg +265. The draw again. I’m seeing draws every time I look at this card. Bottom right end corner, +255, Under or Over again is turned off. See the thing is Alex says that’s what’s telling us about this card. I’ve not seen O 3s and 3.5s because we don’t know. It could be 1-0. It could be 4-2. It’s just up in the air. Over to 2.5 is -115.
Alex:
Which is strange for Bundesliga. I think this is a crucial game for both teams separated by just three points, both fighting to avoid relegation. Stuttgart in the playoff spot there for relegation, Augsburg, just three points above. This is crucial for both teams. And I don’t see that Augsburg are losing this one. I think that the gap is not that big between the pair of them. And I think that Augsburg should be able to return home with one point from this.
Flash:
So -125 double chance, you’d be interested in that?
Alex:
Yes. I would.
Flash:
Okay. Okay. Kev, you’ve seen quite a bit of Stuttgart. What type of team are they? Because I’ve always thought, yeah, you really, like you love playing on the front foot. You’re always good for a goal. But then they go and get beat. But not only get beat, they put in a mediocre performance where they’re looking at each other, say, “That’s your fault.” I don’t see a togetherness in this Stuttgart side.
Kevin Hatchard:
I think that’s a little unfair. I think what it is it’s a group of largely young guys, lots of raw talent who have been dealt a pretty bad hand in terms of injury luck. I mean, you’ve had Sasa Kalajdzic who’s their best striker. He was out for four months with the shoulder injuries and he’s come back. He’s been scoring goals. He’s been excellent in the last couple of games. Borna Sosa really missed him. I think now he’s got somebody to hit with his crosses and with those kind of long deliveries, brilliant cross for the equalizer against Union last weekend. Silas was out with an injury for most of the season. He comes back and what happens? Three games later or four games later, he goes into a shoulder to shoulder, dislocates his shoulder and needs surgery.
Kevin Hatchard:
So you’ve got a kind of perfect storm in a way because you’ve got a policy which they don’t apologize for, of bringing lots of young talent in and developing it and selling it on. And I think that’s fine. You’ve got that. And then you’ve got a lot of injuries. And so therefore-
Alex:
You think that they were more affected by injuries than let’s say Dortmund?
Kevin Hatchard:
Yes. Because they were without … That Dortmund can afford to lose a few and still be okay. Stuttgart can’t. And especially when you’ve sold your best goalkeeper, you’ve sold and replaced him with the goalie who’s not that good in Florian Müller. And then you’ve also sold Nicolás González. So there are financial realities at Stuttgart that have to be born in mind. So-
Flash:
Hey, why we’ve not gone for the +105 then? Why would none of us gone for, okay, Stuttgart +105 against an Augsburg side who very rarely get anything on the road? Why have we all dodged it? Is there a reason?
Kevin Hatchard:
Because it’s a trap. Because it’s a trap. It’s too short. Stuttgart have only won a handful of games this season. So it’s too short. And Augsburg are a funny team, away from home. They were great against Bielefeld, really dug in, very organized, but they can also get smacked. So I thought this is like one of those games like Sideshow Bob and the rakes when he’s constantly walking into them and getting smacked in the face in The Simpsons. But there are other angles here. And for me, it’s to back Sasa Kalajdzic to score because he’s got three goals since he came back. Sosa set up all of them. And I think Augsburg will struggle to deal with him.
Flash:
It’s like a 1-1 game Alex?
Alex:
Yeah. This is what I was thinking over Zander’s. Augsburg not only that they are awful on the road, only two wins all season long. But they struggle to find the back of the net. They scored just 10 goals in 13 trips. And again, this might be cagier than expected. Normally would expect two teams fighting to avoid relegation, playing all in and giving their life. But in the same time, there are still many, many fixtures until the end of the season. And they could be happy with one point each. You never know.
Alex:
Someone on the chat was saying that Stuttgart are fighting more and Augsburg are very bad on the road. Yeah. Stuttgart are fighting. But with the limited possibilities, this is the truth. This is the reality. So this might be one of the classic Unders 1-1 draws.
Flash:
And a draw. And the draw. Yeah. I mean the draw looks like great value. Obviously you’ve gone with just any time goal scorer at +150, Kev. And after last week who’s going to, and obviously your record so far this season who’s going to push you off that. Because again, you don’t care if he scores in the 90th minute, if you’re still on the pitch. And Augsburg are free up. I mean, that’s the beauty of that type of bet. But these two sides, Augsburg, they have 15 men behind the ball away from home, then get one and then think, “Oh, we need to respond.” And they haven’t got the personnel or the mentality to respond. So yeah. Kalajdzic to score at any time. Who?
Alex:
Kalajdzic.
Flash:
Okay. What was wrong with the way I said it?
Alex:
You said Kalaznic.
Flash:
Kalajdzic, yeah, exactly.
Kevin Hatchard:
I’d be surprised if he comes back. If you hadn’t caught it, that would be a surprise.
Flash:
Kalajdzic. Listen, it’s there anyway.
Alex:
Kalajdzic would be a good fit for [crosstalk 00:32:15]
Flash:
+150. And that looks like great value. Here we go. Come on then. This is where I actually found some value. Bayern versus Union. Bayern at -575, a two goal handicap for Bayern. So for Bayern to win by three, it’s going to be at -125, or a push if they win by two. Union Berlin at +1300 and Over. We don’t see any surprises here, especially with Bayern only being four points clear at the top. Forget the draw at +700.
Flash:
Now, do we see four goals, Alex? Over 3.5 at -120, but the one that I’m drawn to straight away because of the need and the desperation for the points and when they need to pull away, they normally nine times out of 10, they’ve done it, is Union Berlin not to score at +100.
Alex:
This match is so hard to predict in terms of goals. I would go Overs, but I will say also Unders. This is exactly, as you said, only four points clear at the top of the table. I think that it’s time for Bayern Munich too, to react a little bit after the 2-2 consecutive draws in the domestic league. Dortmund have a good chance to close the gap if Bayern … if Union Berlin will pull off the upset here. I think that Union will be 11 players behind the ball. I think that this is a clear Bayern domination. We could see a Bayern destroying, imagine destroying Union Berlin. They have the power to do that. It’s very hard, man. -2 I think that this is a way to go from all the stuff, from all the prices that we are seeing on the screen, I think that the -2 is the only way I would go with this match.
Flash:
Alex, but you’ve said that you see Berlin Union having like 11 men behind or 10 men behind the ball, 11, including the keeper. Are you not interested in just because of what’s gone on in the other 26 weeks that we are going to go with Union Berlin not to score at +100?
Alex:
What is going on in the other 20? Yeah.
Flash:
Because Bayern have hardly ever kept a clean sheet all season.
Alex:
Exactly. So how you would expect Union Berlin not to score, right?
Flash:
Just because of the mentality of three points is better than three goals for Bayern.
Alex:
I don’t think that Bayern are thinking this way, at least in their domestic league. I think that in their domestic league, they want to arrive at 100 goals. They have 77 scores right now. Even the players between them in the dressing room are thinking, “Oh, let’s beat this record or let’s beat this record.” I think that there is a lot of talking about this subject. And this is why I can see Bayern destroying Union Berlin, but I would stay off of this bet, Union Berlin Under 0.5 goals in this match.
Flash:
Kev, are we going to, because obviously we also have to look at these teams that are like not very good. They have not got consistency. And Bayern are desperate for the points. And I mean desperate because normally at this stage of the season and this time at the end of March, beginning of April, it’s done and dusted. In fact, when we spoke, when we spoke in August, we said, “Yeah, Bayern will win the league and they’ll coast at the end of March.” No, it’s not the case.
Kevin Hatchard:
No, it isn’t the case. And I’m glad it’s not the case because I think we need that as somebody who loves the league. It’s great to have a title race at this stage of the season. I’m kind of with Alex on this, in the sense that there’s a few reasons and I’ve done a lot of Union recently actually. And look, there’s been a downturn in their attacking process. There’s no question about that. Max Kruse are leaving. That’s caused real problem. Every game they’ve lost recently they’ve failed to score. So look, I get it in that regard.
Kevin Hatchard:
My problem is actually more about Bayern with that bet because Niklas Süle is injured. He’s been one of their most important players at the back. They do play this high line and Sheraldo Becker is rapid. And I can see him getting in behind that high line and doing some damage and-
Flash:
Just like a route one?
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, absolutely. I think that’s what they’ll do. That’s how they’re going to play. They’re going to dig in. But when the chance to break is there, they’ll do it. And I do think there will be chances to break. And Becker, I thought, look ever so good last week against Stuttgart. He was unlucky not to set up [inaudible 00:36:59] because that goal got ruled out for offside. He actually set a speed record for Union last week. And it’s only Jeremiah St. Juste, the Mainz defender who’s actually been clocked at higher speed than him this season. So I think he’ll be quite difficult to handle if he plays. So, I mean, as you know, Flash, I don’t like that bet anyway, but this is a really tricky game, really tricky game.
Flash:
Okay. I’m just getting a little bit of chat as well from Anderson Don saying that Bayern got lucky once again in the Champion’s League draw. I think we’ll revisit that conversation by the way. I’m telling you that now.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s have a little look because we don’t want to spend too much time on this, Bayern up. Yeah. And when we say route one, by the way, just a bit of education, route one is when the fallbacks basically get the ball out of their feet and they hit it long to try and turn the opposition and then everyone squeezes up the pitch. The problem with that is that if you don’t get on the end of it and you start squeezing, then the ball ends up in the back of your net because Bayern are one of the best at carving you open when you think that you’re in possession. So transition is everything with Bayern.
Flash:
Now I’ve gone with Union team total Under 0.5 at +100. Yeah. I just thought that was my value, to be honest. And obviously-
Alex:
And we will cheer for you because you need some.
Flash:
Oh, that got me. Oh, my teammates kept throwing one into me. Yeah, but actually-
Kevin Hatchard:
Brutal. Brutal.
Flash:
Unbelievable. I was going to make it a 10 star banker, but just to get it back in one go. But no worries. There’s a long way to go. I’ll be in profit at the end.
Flash:
Okay. Moving on. Remember we’ve got the Q&A coming up prior to all the official picks, but this game is Leipzig versus Frankfurt. Now one of these teams in the visitors has played like 120 minutes in 10 football this week. One has been sitting on a sun lounger enjoying a pina colada. So it’s RB Leipzig -235, Frankfurt, massive +625. There’s not that gap between the two sides, other than what’s in the petrol tank. The draw at +395. And there we go. That Under or Over 3 goals. Alex, I’m not sure both teams contribute here.
Alex:
Yeah, like we mentioned, at the beginning of the show, Eintracht played extra time in the Europa League. Let’s not forget that they played four matches in 10 days before this clash on the road against the Leipzig. And I was very impressed with the fact that after beating Betis on the road, they returned home to beat Bochum. They were a little bit lucky there for Bochum not to be able to score the second goal, but now they will have even bigger problems because RB Leipzig, as we know, they are through to the next phase of the Europa League, but without playing against Spartak Moscow. So they automatically qualify because Spartak Moscow was knocked out by UEFA after obvious reasons.
Alex:
So right now Leipzig are fresh. They’re coming after that amazing performance. Okay. Amazing performance if you mention the fact that they scored six goals with six different players. So that will tell you a lot about the squad and the players that they have at their disposal.
Alex:
I think that this is a straightforward bet. I think that this is also a parlay piece, Leipzig to take advantage of Frankfurt fitness issues here. Not that Frankfurt are not a great team and not that my cousin is not playing there and I don’t support them. But sometimes you can’t bet with your heart and you have to go with Leipzig here because also on paper but also on the pitch, they are by far the better team, one of the most in form teams in the general Bundesliga right now. Wins bring wins. And that 1-1 draw against Freiburg was a little bit of disappointment in my opinion. For Leipzig, they dominated the entire match, but Freiburg are one of the teams that are very tough to play against, as you mentioned earlier, both home and on the road.
Alex:
But right now it’s more … It is not only fading Eintracht after so many matches played back to back every three days, but RB Leipzig at home are another animal. They are winning matches. They are in great form. They are scoring goals. So I think that this should be a comfortable win for Leipzig.
Flash:
Kev, a lot of people are in the chat saying about Nkunkun scoring any time. Basically it’s the perfect tonic to actually celebrate his first call up to the French squad. Is it one of those that the price is just not as good as last week so you left it?
Kevin Hatchard:
No, I tell you why. And I was really close because he’s +125. So it was really, really close to backing him. The only thing that puts me off, and it’s a strange one, really, because I can’t disagree with anything Alex has said. I get that completely. Frankfurt have a really weird hold over Leipzig. I don’t know what it is, whether it’s just a match up thing or whether it’s confidence thing. But if you look in the last few seasons, every time, even when Leipzig have been in amazing form and they’ve taken on Frankfurt, when Frankfurt haven’t been playing well, Frankfurt will always pull something out against them, whether it’s in Frankfurt, in Leipzig, they get late equalizes against them. They’ll have [inaudible 00:42:58] from like 35 yards. It’s a really weird matchup.
Kevin Hatchard:
I was very tempted to back Nkunku. I totally get where Alex is coming from. But it was just that recent history thing of really Leipzig should do better against Frankfurt than they do. But they’ve had a few games where they just haven’t for whatever reason.
Flash:
Yeah. I mean, this game Alex is just straightforward surely of Leipzig win. Then you have to find the value and which way are they going to win? Because Frankfurt, again, unless they turn up again and call some sort a miracle, they’re entitled to actually down, I was especially looking forward to maybe having a few days off, because obviously the international break next week. How did you find value here?
Alex:
I’m going halftime/fulltime with Leipzig at +110. We talked about Eintracht problems from playing in Europe and coming back after that in the domestic league and they’re playing whatever team. We know how many problems they had in the first half of the season. Again, I was very impressed with their win against Bochum last weekend, coming after a crazy match against Betis. And we had another crazy match against Betis also on Thursday, which needed extra time. So I think that RB Leipzig will start strong.
Alex:
I think that Eintracht will be a little bit shaky after Thursday. Before they find their rhythm back against Leipzig, they will be a little bit, okay, we qualify in the quarter finals. So first 10, 15 minutes, I think that will be a total domination for Leipzig. And I think that it must … a goal in the first 30 minutes of the game should also be a good bet here.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s spin up that official pick then because at +110 and it does make sense on paper. And when you explain it like that, you expect Leipzig to try and attack early and Frankfurt give it one of those that as Kev says, you just never know.
Flash:
Let’s go to our final game and that will be obviously game seven. And I am [inaudible 00:45:14] about this one, Wolfsburg versus Leverkusen. Wolfsburg +205 massive, Leverkusen +135. Could also look to be massive. And the draw makes it three in a row because it’s +255. I went through all of this, thought this could be one of them classic 2-2s, 3-2s, and maybe even I’ll get my 3-3. Over 2.5 goals at -135 should be the way to go here, Kev, because I just see no clean sheets. I couldn’t show you who wins. And I might even get my 2-2 or 3-3.
Kevin Hatchard:
I’d run a mile from this. I’ll be honest.
Flash:
Yeah.
Kevin Hatchard:
Because I think Leverkusen have had just an appalling week. They lost Florian Wirtz to ruptured ACL. He’s going to be out for months. So not only the rest of this season, but the start of next season. So it’s horrible news for him. They lost Jeremy Frimpong for the rest of the season. He’s a really important attacking outlet for them. Then they went out of the Europa League, got home to Atlanta, didn’t score, which is very unusual for them. So this is a real test of character for them because there are teams below them, and Alex has already alluded to it. Hoffenheim, Freiburg, Leipzig, they’re all breathing down their neck. And this is Gerardo Seoane’s biggest test of the season, the Bayer coach, because he’s got to find a way of lifting his players after the injuries and after going out of Europe. So that-
Alex:
Can you please explain me, Kevin. We talked about last week and we mentioned that we might see Wirtz or Diaby on the bench. Can you please explain? And this is what happened. They were in the starting 11 and see what happened to Wirtz and to Frimpong against Köln. Why he didn’t bench them and in … Okay, it was a match against Köln. They needed that win. They’re fighting for a top spots there. But there were some other times where he was benching some of the key players without needing to do that.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah. I think to answer the Köln question it’s because it’s Köln. It’s a local derby. The fans would not accept. I don’t think having Wirtz and Diaby on the bench for a game against Köln. So I think that probably explains that. And I think to be fair to Seoane, he’s got it right most of the time. He’s very aware that these are young guys. He can see what we can’t see, which is in training. How do they look? Do they look jaded? Are they carrying a knock? what’s going on? So there’ll be things that we won’t see that he will see in training and he’ll make those adjustments. Obviously in hindsight, you wouldn’t kind of put Wirtz in that game because you wouldn’t want him to get injured, but these things happen. It’s a rare just for them that it happens two players in the same week.
Alex:
This is the worst thing. And Wirtz contributed I think in more than 45% of his team goals.
Kevin Hatchard:
Well, he’s their best player. He’s their best player. And to me Wirtz is one of the top five players in the league.
Flash:
Oh, I don’t want to interrupt you gentlemen, but the Wolfsburg at +205 is seeming more and more appealing because I’m thinking if they win this, they go into the international break knowing that relegation is no longer a factor and they can then just cruise in. And if ever you wanted to play against a wounded animal and I mean a wounded animal, not by one that’s going to sort of look into bounce back, one that’s going to limp into this break, Wolfsburg at +205 looks massive.
Kevin Hatchard:
I don’t trust them, Flash. I don’t trust them. I think they are still a good group of individuals. I think they’ve got a good coach. Kohfeldt gets a lot of stick. I do believe in him. I do think he’s an intelligent coach that needs time. There needs a bit of continuity, but they are very much let’s limp along to the end of the season, just get this done. So I think it could be-
Flash:
You think they’ve got enough, already? You think they’ve done enough? I think they’re like, they lose this game and when the teams below them …
Alex:
Yeah, they’ve done enough. Enough.
Kevin Hatchard:
I think-
Flash:
You think they’ve done enough? [crosstalk 00:49:28] get some, keeps them up.
Alex:
Okay. If you lose all the games at the end of the season, that’s another thing, but …
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah. And look, and Kohfeldt will know that because it was at this point of the season with Werder last season that they started to drop and they thought they’d done enough. So look, the imperative is going to be there. It’s not them being on the beach. That’s not why I would necessarily go for them, the situation they’re in. But I did their home game against Union last time out. And they were really clinging on at the end and they didn’t look very … They defended very solidly at the end, but as a team performance not great.
Flash:
Yeah, but Kev, is it not a case of desperation and want from the home side? Okay. But is it not just a fade of a side that are going to be absolutely demoralized? They’ve got injuries.
Kevin Hatchard:
I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know. I mean, they weren’t awful against Atalanta. They were in the game. They made chances. Diaby should have scored. So it’s not like they turned up and they were trash and they lost 3-0. But it’s because I don’t know that I’m not going near this game because I just don’t know how they will react mentally.
Flash:
I just wonder if Wolfsburg will be too strong, Alex?
Alex:
Let’s not forget that Wolfsburg beat Leverkusen in the last two head to heads. Okay. Both on the road and they are unbeaten in the last four encounters against Leverkusen.
Flash:
You two are turning into good devil, bad devil. I’ve got Kevin on one shoulder going, “Flash, you can’t trust them.” And then you are giving me like two head-to-heads where they’ve won away from it.
Alex:
Let’s put it this way. In my opinion, the value from the two teams, the values with Wolfsburg from obvious reasons. Injury issues for Leverkusen, midweek exit from other European competitions. The confidence levels are bad. Wolfsburg are playing at home. They have a good record against Leverkusen. That would put you to go with Wolfsburg. But I agree that it’s a trap to bet even with Wolfsburg.
Flash:
Yeah, I mean you come back in a draw again.
Alex:
I would take the PK, the draw no bet option. But it’s better to go with the goals market. I don’t see keep clean sheets from the two teams here. So why not to go Alex classic both teams to score and Over 2.5 at -105 to drink a beer, to watch the match and to cheer for both teams.
Flash:
See. There you go Kev. There you go. We’ve been all serious. And then he’s thrown in let’s not worry about the match and just have a beer.
Kevin Hatchard:
It’s a strategy.
Flash:
It is. It is. It is. And it’s a normal one on a Saturday afternoon or Sunday afternoon for Alex. Okay. Let’s have a little look. The official picks are both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals at -105. Can understand the argument for the home side at +205. I can understand the argument for the draw at really, really good money as well. But I think the safest way is maybe no clean sheets in this game and or play live in running when you get a feeling of what Leverkusen is actually going to turn up.
Flash:
Okay. So there is a Q&A. I guess, after covering seven games, there’s not a lot that we’ve actually missed out. So let me take you back to the start of the show when I invited you to subscribe and get us closer to 5,000 subscribers, which will be a great feat. We will all be so appreciative.
Flash:
Also, ring the bell. Ring the bell means we will notify you. You don’t ever miss any content again. So sit back, we’ll ring the bell. And remember, there’s so much going on. And I think it’s my duty as a team player to remind you that March Madness is underway and some of the big guns, some of the favorite teams, they departed in the first round. So you can check and watch all the boys on the NCAAB channel. Great, great watch. Plenty, plenty in the chat. So if you are not knowledgeable, get yourselves in there and you will find … I think you’ll find winners because they are so, so good.
Flash:
And last of all, if you’re on social media, you’re on Twitter, then make sure you follow us @BetUSSoccer, @BetUSSoccer on Twitter is the way to go. And I have not got one question from anybody.
Alex:
Mainz, money line, stick it in a parlay. The only match that we didn’t speak about Mainz, money line, stick it in a parlay.
Flash:
No. Why? Well, why did we not put it on the official picks in?
Alex:
Yeah because it’s too short.
Flash:
Why? Why?
Alex:
Because Bielefeld has a ton of-
Flash:
I know, but Mainz have just come off the same thing, isn’t it? We haven’t put them on official picks for a reason. Leave it because what we have got to add and let’s get the official picks up here. Here’s all the official picks. Right? And then underneath that, we’re going to have a parlay of Bochum to the game, the Bochum game, Over 2.5 goals. The first game Over 2.5 goals in a parlay. And that pays +220. There’s your parlay.
Alex:
After the international break Flash, I want to see us at +20 units-
Flash:
Okay. Well, listen, if you want to see that, I’ll just put that up anyway, regardless of the results. Alex, can you tell me what that name is to score at +150, please.
Alex:
Kalajdzic.
Flash:
Okay. Kev?
Kevin Hatchard:
Kalajdzic.
Flash:
See, and I’ll say Kalajdzic. And then there’s three different bets all at +150. So as long as there’s a player that scores with K, we are having a winner. There’s 150.
Kevin Hatchard:
Just call it Sasha. Just call it Sasha.
Flash:
Yeah, yeah.
Alex:
Like Wamangituka, you know?
Flash:
Or Silas.
Alex:
Silas.
Flash:
Have we got another name for him, Kev?
Alex:
No, but unfortunately from the time that he changed his name, all the injury problems appeared. So he should have sticked with that Wamangituka. It was very nice.
Flash:
Okay. And also, I just must remind you that if you have rung the bell, you will get a notification later because I will be covering the four FA Cup games, or no, the three of them. There’s two and there’s a banker. So I’ll be covering three of the four games for this weekend. And I think they’re pretty straightforward. To be honest, all my selections are straightforward. There might be a few twists and turns, but I’m definitely steering clear of one game.
Flash:
Kev, have a great weekend. Do what you do. Alex, do what you do. So that means people are going to have heart failure waiting for their 93rd minute goal just to get their bets in. From everyone in a chat, really love it. Thumbs up on the way out, because at the moment we’ve got over 70 watching and only 39 thumbs up. That means … Oh, here they come, the thumbs up. So for everyone at BetUS, have a great weekend. We’re going to have a week off of soccer next week. But then when we come back, we’ve got the Champions League quarter final, Europa League quarter final. We’ve got the Masters and we’ll have the finals of the end, not on this channel, but on the end of March Madness. So Alex, thanks mate. Thanks Kev. From everyone at BetUS, you take care.
