Flash:
Welcome to the BetUS soccer channel. I’m Flash. It’s the Bundesliga show. It’s match day 30. Now we had differing fortunes for German sides in midweek. Bayern, they dropped away, but Leipzig were very, very impressive in Italy. Now, before we get to the nuts and bolts of what’s going on midweek, and what’s going to go on at the weekend, we are America’s favorite sports books. So we’d like to invite you to subscribe and get us closer to 5,000 subscribers. But also, we’d like you to ring the bell. And that means we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. If you’re on social media, then please go and follow @betussoccer, because if Alex or Kevin, remember, Kevin could be at the game with his cans on his ears and he might like a lineup and then he can tweet out and say, “Listen, I’m at the game. They don’t look right. Get yourself on these.” It’s a good idea, Kev. I’ve just come up with that one, aren’t I?
Kevin Hatchard:
It is a good idea.
Flash:
It is a good idea. I don’t think-
Kevin Hatchard:
Quite busy on a match day, but yeah. Yeah, maybe.
Flash:
Hey, priorities, priorities. So before I-
Kevin Hatchard:
That’s true. That’s true-
Flash:
… go and introduce my guests, was it a sweep again last week from the voice of soccer, European soccer, I should say in Kevin Hatchard. His obviously, his wing man or his partner in crime is the man that you want on your side to be cheering on a last minute goal because it’s golden balls himself @alexclassictips.
Flash:
We’re going to have the Q&A right before the best bet. So make sure we are going to cover six games. If there’s games that we’ve not covered that you want to ask questions, then get yourselves in the chat. The chat is your forum for making sure that I cover whatever you want.
Flash:
Kev, we’ll come to you first because Bayern crashing out. You were disappointed. Some of us, we were expecting it.
Kevin Hatchard:
I was disappointed because Villarreal we know were excellent in terms of plotting their way through these two-legged ties. Unai Emery is an absolute superstar. I think he’s one of the best coaches out there. I think he’s proven that time and time again. Doesn’t make any football sense that Villarreal should not only be able to win the Europa League, but then get through to the semifinals of the Champions League?
Kevin Hatchard:
That said, Bayern had opportunities. And I think what was really disappointing from their point of view is having actually got themselves back level in the tie. They then just weren’t able to push on and get that second goal. And what Villarreal did very intelligently was take time off the clock, shrink the game so that it came down to a few minutes at the end. And then they got that superb breakaway goal from Samuel Chukwueze. So I think Bayern for me, it’s one of their worst results in Europe for a long, long time. And I think it completely changes how we perceive their first season under Julian Nagelsmann.
Flash:
I was going to say that.
Alex:
I mean, this is what I wanted to ask you. Don’t you think that it was also Julian Nagelsmann mistake on making the starting 11 and how he put them on the pitch and the way that they played? I think that he was also to blame, not only the players at the end of the day, right?
Kevin Hatchard:
I think there’s an element of that, but also there was a lack of intensity and he can’t do much about that. I thought they looked fearful in that first half, and they kind of wasted that first half really. Villarreal make your life very tough. There’s no doubt about that. I think what Nagelsmann’s wanted was to really pin them back and really give them a lot more to think about. They clearly had this idea of getting Coman and Sane to play curling balls into the area.
Kevin Hatchard:
I don’t think Gerónimo Rulli is a great goalkeeper. So I would’ve liked from Bayern’s point of view to see them put some more pressure on him and they weren’t able to do it. So it’s a desperately disappointing result for them. And there are big questions going forward, but I thought was interesting that Nagelsmann said afterwards, “We have to now make the right decisions.” And I think what he means is who do we give contract extensions to and who do we bring in, because it’s not a bottomless pile of money at Bayern.
Alex:
[crosstalk 00:03:47]Flash:
Yeah, and the other thing is tactic’s only … No, tactics from a manager, they are only as good as the players who implement them. So certain things in the game, the game of football or soccer is a game of mistakes where you have to adapt and anticipate. And-
Alex:
Yeah, it’s true, it’s true, Flash-
Flash:
… sometimes you just have to get the job done, and you’ve got to take or give all the credit to Villarreal and don’t look and say, Bayern with this or Bayern with that. I’ll tell you one thing that came out the game for me was, and people probably wouldn’t notice this before, is how nasty and horrible Robert Lewandowski is and you need to be as a striker when you’re playing top level football. Because for me, he should have been given a red card. But he’s just the same as Suárez, just the same as Alan Shearer. The top ones have that horrible nasty streak.
Alex:
No, I don’t think that you can put him at the same …
Flash:
What? You don’t see it. He’s always elbow. Now listen, I love it. It’s part of the game, but it’s just that some people, they don’t see the other side of the game. And he has got it. And you need it to be a top level striker. You know like sometimes when you see that he finds space in the box to get a header or get across people. He’s already done the nasty bit of work on the edge of the box to gain that half a yard. But the way he left his foot in a few times at the other night, if he had been sent off, he’d had no complaints.
Alex:
Yeah.
Flash:
Anyway, that’s enough about Bayern. They’re a fish and chip paper. They’re gone. What about the result of the week, Alex? Without a doubt, it was Leipzig going to Atlanta, winning [inaudible 00:05:17] Why are you laughing? Why are you laughing?
Alex:
I knew that you would do that. I knew that you would do that. It’s just because you went with Barcelona-
Flash:
I’m not joking, bla, bla, bla.
Alex:
I know that you are very angry with Barcelona’s performance-
Flash:
No, we’re talking about Atalanta-Leipzig. Please stay on track.
Alex:
RB Leipzig was deadly, deadly, like gave the ball in the first half, great on counterattack. When Nkunku is doing an amazing job when keeping the ball on the … when the team is on a counterattack and given the services left and right, I think that he’s brilliant. I think that he’s one of the most in form players in Europe this season. And what an amazing job RB Leipzig. But what an amazing job, my cousin Filip Kostic that scored the brace yesterday and also was in charge of delivering that assist for the third goal of Eintracht Frankfurt. So from the-
Flash:
Alex, do you think that was the best performance you’ve seen of Frankfurt in the last five years, because they were just outstanding. Every single man. And I’ve not seen them look that sharp. I’ve not seen them look that aggressive in their running. I don’t mean fouling. I don’t mean tackles. I mean, they broke. And have five have men going forward. And this is, and obviously they had the dream start so they had something and their confidence was lifted. But that’s a Frankfurt side that got what they deserved without a shadow of a doubt. But secondly, they were like, they were 10 out of 10, every man.
Alex:
Yeah, they were incredible yesterday. It was their performance of the season by far from Eintracht Frankfurt. But as we discussed also last week, they put all the eggs on one basket, the Europa League because this is their only chance to qualify for the Champions League next season. So they gave it all against Barcelona. And right now they have the chance, we have a chance to see an all-German final for the first time since Europa League started in 2009. And there is a big chance on doing that, on seeing that.
Alex:
It’s true. West Ham are far more complicated than Rangers for RB Leipzig. Rangers will play RB Leipzig. Eintracht will play West Ham. So there is a big chance for RB Leipzig to go til the end and lift the trophy as I predicted when the draw for the knockout stages was done a few months ago.
Flash:
Yeah. Okay. And before we get to the records, just got to be absolutely gutted. I thought Barcelona were going to do the job, but they were just beaten by the better side the night. And you have to hold your hands up in soccer that sometimes when you win, you lose because they basically had beaten dead wood. And they came up against a side that were on top of their game on that night, and that’s the end of it. Again, fish and chip paper. Move on.
Flash:
Records, please producer. Let’s have a little look because the boys are going great guns. I lost a little bit last week, 6.72, a bit unlucky with two of my three draws. Only going down by one of them. And one of them was Frankfurt, funnily enough, getting beaten at home. Kev, you are going great guns. Alex, just putting his head above, but the total, it’s a team game. 13 units. Parlay can do with a bit. So maybe we can find parlay over the next few weeks and get ourselves into profit.
Flash:
So let’s kick off. Let’s get rid of all the nonsense. If you’ve got something you want to say, get yourselves in the chat and give us your thoughts as well because it’s Augsburg versus Hertha Berlin. And Hertha, by the way, last week, we mentioned the 4-1 Kev and it ended up being 4-1 again. And yeah, I was on the draw. Augsburg at -110, Hertha +315. All of a sudden that Augsburg looks great at -110 if you can trust them. The draw’s at +255. The under or over is at 2.5. Well, basically it’s a coin flip because the over is at -115. Kev, Augsburg versus Hertha. No one would want to be with Hertha in a month for Sundays.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah. It’s a really, really difficult situation for them now, because it wasn’t just that they were beaten by Union. It was the way they were beaten in such a massive game. They’ve now lost all three games against Union this season. So Berlin is red. There’s no question about that. And it was humiliating for them. On their own patch, full crowd. You don’t get that very often at the Olympiastadion. And some of the ultras asked the players to take their shirts off because they said they weren’t fit to wear them, so shows you-
Alex:
They did. Some of the players did.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, they did. I think I would’ve as well to be honest in that situation. I think Felix Magath is hugely experienced. I think the question’s going to be, can he drill them so that they can defend better because they’re all over the place at the moment. So they’ve had three games. They’ve had a game against Bayer Leverkusen where they weren’t too bad. This game where they were destroyed by Union, which confidence-wise will be massive. And the first game they won 3-0 against Hoffenheim and that was maybe a bit-
Alex:
Probably that was a mistake. That was a mistake. The-
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, I think it was a bit of a freak result. I think they got three goals from three kicks. I think Hoffenheim had a nightmare day. Augsburg though are doing what Augsburg do. When they need to find results, they’ve done it, and they’ve managed to get back to back home wins. They weren’t too bad against Bayern, nearly hung in there and got a point, which would’ve been a very impressive result. But they’ve managed to build up quite a cushion now between themselves and the bottom three. So it’s not done. So there’s enough motivation there for Augsburg in front of their fans, but Hertha are a bit of a mess.
Flash:
Alex, are we actually having this conversation that now Augsburg are a team to trust?
Alex:
No. No, no, no, no, no. Yes. We said last week that they will not get destroyed by Bayern Munich, but it was just because the sandwich match between the Champions League games that made us believe in that +2.5 on the Asian handicap. And it was great because for example, in the first half Bayern failed to have a shot on target. But in the second half, they scored one goal. It was enough for them to get the three points. They didn’t push. They prepared themselves for the Champions League match. Obviously, they are out of the Champions League, Bayern now. So we will talk differently about them.
Alex:
But no, I cannot trust Augsburg. I cannot trust Augsburg. It’s different right now for Hertha Berlin because they are not playing in front of their fans. I think there is not so much pressure on them right now in this Augsburg game for Hertha. If they were home again, you can feel the pressure from the crowd, mostly like what happened last week in the Berlin derby, right?
Alex:
So I think that it’ll be a change of mindset for what happened in that derby, and I think that they will deliver. Probably they will score. I don’t trust them to win the three points here. I don’t know, maybe a draw is on the cards also. But when you see two teams, okay, desperate for points, because let’s admit it. Even Augsburg, they are six points above the drop zone. But we have 15 points on the table till the end of the season. Right? So still they can go down. So it’ll be crazy. This game will be crazy. I think that the only bet I want to be in I think is the over, and the over I think that it will deliver.
Flash:
Yeah. The problem I’ve got with Hertha is that if you can’t respond to a local derby of the fiercest nature, you then get absolutely steamrolled with no response during the 90 minutes by the way, because they got punched on the nose and instead of going back and punching the opposition on the nose, they rolled over and had their bellies tickled because it was so one sided. Now you’re going to go to Augsburg. And as Kev says, Augsburg do what they do. They just make sure that they’re compact. They don’t give the opposition any encouragement by the way. And they wait and they are patient. Listen, I think Augsburg win the game, I mean, but I think both teams score and over-
Alex:
I think that even cards, even cards are on the cards-
Flash:
For Hertha to get cards, they need to put a challenge in.
Alex:
I think that they will put a challenge. I think that this is a match, this is a crucial match for them after being post by their city rivals in the most important match of the season, no matter what, on their stadium, in front of 75,000 people, I think that they will, they must answer. They must deliver a response here.
Flash:
Well, it’d be an interesting to see.
Alex:
They will go all in.
Flash:
Yeah, because they was behind so early last week. They had like 80 minutes to respond and they didn’t.
Flash:
Let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks because there’s only one of us that have gone for anything and it’s Augsburg team total over 1.5 at -110. So that means Augsburg score twice, but they can also not win the game. So they lose 3-2, they draw 2-2, and if they win 2-1, you’re still going to get the same price as the money line and no one’s been hotter in the Bundesliga this year than the voice.
Flash:
Just move on to game number two, because this is a really interesting game. A lot of people blindly will think Dortmund versus Wolfsburg. First of all, I’d see goals at under or over 3 with -115 for the over 3, but Dortmund at -190. Not so sure you can trust Dortmund, although they are due to give someone an absolute tanning. Wolfsburg at +525. Let’s have a little look at Wolfsburg not to score. Not to score Wolfsburg +160, but they’re telling you that Wolfsburg will score at -200.
Flash:
Alex, you can take us away here because Dortmund, they cannot afford any slipups and they’ve also, they’ve got to start gaining a little bit more confidence because for me, they’re taking that second too late on the ball whereas when they’re at it, they shift the ball quickly.
Alex:
Gio Reyna, end of the season for him, another injury issue. That tells everything about this injury crisis in Dortmund. All season long, we talked about it, different times. Nine points behind Bayern with a game in hand. If they win that game, they go six points. Next week is their klassiker, Bayern versus Dortmund, right? So there is still hope. I think that they will go all in for this match. Anyway, at home, they have almost an average of three goal scored on their own. In 14 games, they scored 41 goals.
Flash:
Would you take the +1.55 for Dortmund to score three times?
Alex:
Probably yes, probably yes. I think that that is a great value bet, given Dortmund’s recent record against Wolfsburg, they covered the spread in their last, I don’t know, six head to heads and they kept a clean sheet in five of them. Even in the reverse match on the road, they won 3-1. They will have … Haaland is back, Reus, Bellingham, all those crazy people out there in the final third.
Alex:
So I’m expecting a total domination from Dortmund. I’m expecting them to win at a minimum of two goals. And I think that the -1 on the Asian handicap is a free hit in my opinion. I think that Dortmund win. The only question is how many goals they will score and by how many goals they will win. They will win. This is why I’m saying that the -1 is a free hit.
Flash:
Okay. The -1 is a free hit. Are we looking Kev at maybe like a 3-1 here? I see Wolfsburg scoring. I think Wolfsburg is strong. And I keep going back to that Wolfsburg that obviously shocked Leipzig very early on when they out muscled them and they became very, very difficult and then they were like Jekyll and Hyde. We didn’t know which Wolfsburg was actually going to turn up. But is the way to go here over 3 at -115? Is it Dortmund -1 at -120? Or is it the old Alex classic of both teams to score and over? Because that’s probably where I would go. And then if there was a shock, because Dortmund are going to score, I think Wolfsburg are going to score, but just covering yourself on Wolfsburg getting a second.
Kevin Hatchard:
I’d rather not rely on Wolfsburg for anything, quite frankly. I think you look at the form that they’ve had and the Florian Kohfeldt throughout the season. It’s been very unpredictable. They’ve very rarely shown the quality that they have. I fancied them to beat Bielefeld, and they did that comfortably last weekend. But this isn’t Bielefeld and their record against Dortmund is appalling. The last time they won was all the way back in the 2015 DFB Cup final. Juergen Klopp was in charge of Dortmund. That’s how long ago that was.
Kevin Hatchard:
So this is not a good matchup for Wolfsburg. It hasn’t been for a long time. And so I think the -1 for the hosts at -120 is actually the bet here because I think Dortmund will win it. It’s just a question of how much by. And I think that bet cuts out a lot of the kind of extraneous factors really.
Flash:
Okay. Do we see Wolfsburg scoring though? Because obviously Dortmund have kept … So Dortmund have kept clean sheets, haven’t they?
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, it’s possible. I do still think Dortmund give up too many chances. And so even against quite limited opponents, there’s some big guys in that Wolfsburg team. If they get a corner, if they get free kicks, something like that. So, and Mats Hummels is out injured. They’ve got all kinds of injury problems again. So I think Dortmund win it, but I’d rather just concentrate on that than having to rely on Wolfsburg really.
Flash:
Yeah. Okay. The other thing with Dortmund that again, they’ve got to try and sort out is having more control of the game and not just go like a basketball match. If you attack, I attack because they haven’t got a defense that can actually soak that up.
Flash:
Let’s have little look at the official picks. Both teams to score and over at -105. For myself Dortmund -1 at -120. I’m just happy that Wolfsburg go 1-0 up and Dortmund then score three, 3-1. Everyone’s a winner.
Flash:
Moving on to game number three, because I thought this was one sided and I couldn’t believe the price and that price has changed because Mainz were at +110 and now they’re at +100. They’re hosting Stuttgart. Stuttgart at +290. Can’t have Stuttgart on the road. I think maybe goals are involved in this game.
Flash:
Alex, over 2.5 goals is at -115, but just a straight down complicate for the home side after the good win last week against Frankfurt.
Alex:
Yeah, a great disappointment from Mainz, losing 3-2 to Köln. But as a home team, they have the fourth home record in the German Bundesliga this season winning nine and losing just twice over the course of the season in 14 home games and only allowing eight goals in the process, 28 goal scored, 2+ on the average scored at home. I think that this is a one-way ticket, a home win for me. Nothing to say about the way that Stuttgart are playing on the road, because they are awful. This isn’t on the road, and they’re awful this season as a team.
Alex:
And Kev talked about their issues all season long. And it seems like the issues are not getting solved anytime soon. So I don’t expect Stuttgart who are still fighting to escape relegation or just one point above the red zone there, I don’t think that they will put too much problems to Mainz on the road.
Flash:
Yeah. Kev, I see Mainz winning this game. I just don’t know if I was confident enough to go with the team total over because they just got to get the job done. Now, the money’s coming from +110. Now it’s at +100. If it keeps going, they’re going to be at -105.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah. My worry is about motivation here because Mainz’s hopes of qualifying for Europe pretty much went up in smoke in Cologne last week. It was a game that I commentated on. Mainz are really good for an hour and then the flick on by Modeste-Skhiri changed the game and then full crowds, party atmosphere and Mainz rather fell apart.
Kevin Hatchard:
And Stuttgart are desperate for the points. And I actually think Stuttgart played pretty well in the last few weeks. I think against Dortmund’s tricky. They ran into a Dortmund team that played very well, scored an early goal, never really managed to get back into it, and they miss Sasa Kalajdzic. But Kalajdzic is expected to be back. He had COVID but the feeling is that he will be back. And I think that makes a massive difference.
Kevin Hatchard:
So I’d actually, if I was going to approach this, I think I’d be more tempted to go with Mainz to score a couple of goals rather than to win the game because Stuttgart have come back well in games. I could see something like a 2-2, especially if Kalajdzic is in the team. So that would be, we’re getting to that point of the season now where teams can no longer really achieve what they wanted to achieve. The main idea for Mainz was always to avoid relegation. They’ve done that with room to spare, and the team that really needs to win this is Stuttgart, so …
Alex:
What do you think about the rumors taking Kalajdzic to Bayern? He’s on Bayern’s list right now. Is that good for Bayern? Do you think that he can cope with the pressure that is on his shoulders if he’s going the leaders and to the most important team in the German-
Flash:
Surely, he should go to Leverkusen, shouldn’t he?
Kevin Hatchard:
Well, I think he struggled to get past Patrik Schick in truth. I think-
Flash:
Do you think he’ll get past Lewandowski?
Kevin Hatchard:
No, but he would have to go there as a backup and he would have to know that. But the thing you’ve got to bear in mind is that there’s still a lot of talking to be done with Lewandowski because exactly his contract expires at the end of the next season. There’s going to be a lot of talk about whether Bayern can afford the kind of contract extension he would want to see out his career with the club. So I think this is probably in truth a story-
Alex:
A rumor-
Kevin Hatchard:
… to try and spook Lewandowski’s advisors. We had one the other week about Lewandowski going to Barcelona. I think that’s a load of old rubbish. I don’t think there’s a contract sourced there at all. I think that’s a lie. I think that was to put the frighteners on Bayern and this is to put the frighteners on Lewandowski’s people. So I think this is going to carry on.
Kevin Hatchard:
In terms of Kalajdzic, I think at a bigger club, a European club, I think he could do very well. I like him a lot. I think he’s good on the deck. I think he’s great in the air. I could see him going to Dortmund maybe because Haaland’s going to go. So I could see him being a good focal point for Dortmund, especially with the kind of quick players he would have around him. So I don’t think he’ll stay at Stuttgart beyond this summer.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. I had Mainz last week and I also had the 2-2. Yeah, Johnny lucky ended up 3-2. Okay. Mainz money line at +100, as I say it was +110. It’s now moving against us. So it is +100. Don’t complicate it, the home win. Let’s hope Stuttgart just turn up and do what Stuttgart do, and don’t have one of them days. Listen, the Alex classic could well be in play as well, and I suppose you’re going to get around the +100, +105 for that as well.
Flash:
Okay. Game number four is a game where it just screams goals. It’s Gladbach versus Köln and we’re just going to go straight under or over 3 goals with the over at +100. Gladbach again at +100 on the money line. Köln at +265, with the draw at +275. Now, Gladbach to score twice is -135. Köln to score twice is +155.
Flash:
Kev first. Gladbach +100, is this one that we shouldn’t be overlooking?
Kevin Hatchard:
I think the numbers are wrong. I can’t for the life of me think why Gladbach would be the strong favorites to win this game. Doesn’t make any sense that-
Flash:
Well, is it not Köln’s away from?
Kevin Hatchard:
No. No, I don’t think so. I mean, you could maybe say that, but it’s only down the road and it’s a derby, and I think Köln will probably come alive. I think they showed what they’re capable of against Mainz with the crowd behind them. I know it’ll be the Gladbach crowd at Borussia-Park, but I don’t think Köln will be intimidated by that. They’ve done really well in derbies recently. And I just think Gladbach are a bit gutless. And I think this is the kind of game where actually you’re going to really need to scrap. I think Steffen Baumgart will have his players up for this. They played really well in the reverse fixture. And so I wouldn’t touch that money line of Gladbach at +100 in a billion years, quite frankly.
Kevin Hatchard:
It doesn’t mean they won’t win the game, but it just means for me, that’s not a value bet at all. I think over 3 at +100 is okay. I don’t trust either defense particularly. I think over 1.5 goals for Köln +155 is enormous. I think that is a good bet.
Kevin Hatchard:
So yeah, I certainly wouldn’t be coming down on the Gladbach side of things here, given what they’ve shown, when you’ve really needed to scrap and fight and kind of inspire the crowd, they just haven’t got it.
Flash:
Yeah. Alex, Köln on the back are going 2-0 down very early on last week and then coming back and winning and scoring three. And you just don’t know what the Gladbach are going to turn up. Because this is a Gladbach side that can, so they can wrestle with the biggest, but they can also lose to the smallest. So that really is not good when you’re looking for an edge.
Alex:
Yeah. Not only they entered this match full of confidence after that amazing result against Mainz coming from two goals down, but Hoffenheim lost three in a row. They’re equal on points with Hoffenheim at 44 right now. That sixth place is what they are aiming right now. The conference leak if Köln … One point behind them, sorry, not equal on points. If Köln qualifies on the Conference League, it’ll be [inaudible 00:27:45] October 1st in May, something like that for them. You know?
Alex:
So I think that if you think that Gladbach will win but you don’t trust that, what Kev said for Köln to score twice because he doesn’t trust that Gladbach defense at +155, I think that is the way to go. Expect goals. I think that the goals are on the cards. I think that Köln will play their chance. Gladbach on the other side are enjoying their last games this season. They have nothing to lose, but nothing to play for. It’s something like, okay, let’s have a party, let’s play our best and see what happens. They will not risk any injuries. So I don’t think that this is a match that Gladbach will risk it all to beat Köln.
Alex:
The situation is simple. Köln has something to play for. They will go all in-
Flash:
But it’s a derby. But it’s a derby.
Alex:
Yeah, it’s a derby. Yeah. Yeah. But even if it’s a derby, I think that Köln doesn’t lose this one. But again, if you don’t want to risk to bet on the winners market, go for goals. And the Alex classic is absolutely on the cards in this one.
Flash:
Okay. Let’s have a little look it then, because I had to leave this alone, even though the +100 did catch my eye early on, but then obviously like Kev, I’m like, “I’ve got bit by Köln, I’ve been bit by Gladbach. I can’t keep sticking my hand in that dog’s mouth.” Both teams scoring over 2.5 at -120 for Alex. And then that brings in either side winning or again the 2-2. And remember, the 3-3s. We’ve not seen many 3-3s. We’ve seen a few 3-2s. Are we going to start seeing 3-3s? Because normally Bundesliga, you see more 3-3s in the Bundesliga than any other league.
Flash:
Okay. Then let’s move on to game number five because there was something here that I really, really liked. And it was like, no, stay away, Hoffenheim versus Fürth. Hoffenheim at -350. No one’s interested in the money line unless you’re going to stick it in like a five team parlay. Fürth +950. No, one’s interested in that. So let’s move on to the over the handicap of Hoffenheim winning by two goals because Hoffenheim are at -135, or Fürth to get beat by one goal, you pick up at +115.
Flash:
Now, Alex, the goals are starting at 3.5. First of all, do we see both teams contributing because then you can see it going over? If not, I’m not sure we see four goals in this game, and this is where I went straight away. -120 under 3.5, I’m thinking I cannot guarantee that Fürth are going to score here. And then they’re at +120 not to score.
Alex:
Right on pointer with you Flash here with under 3.5 goals. Not even thinking about this game having four goals written all over it. First of all, we have Hoffenheim coming off the back of three defeats in a row, three defeats in a row, and they’re still fighting for a European spot. And they scored just one goal in these three defeats. It was against Bochum.
Alex:
RB Leipzig host them last week. You would expect them to take something out of that game because RB Leipzig were playing also in Europe. But they were one of those sides that put it out amazing starting lineup, not resting anyone. So Hoffenheim right now I don’t see them good. I see them not even getting that top six finish and qualifying in the European competition. I think that Union Berlin and Köln have a great chance of leapfrogging them. If not this week, maybe in the upcoming weeks.
Alex:
Hoffenheim has a great chance to return to winning ways. I think that if they don’t beat Greuther Fürth, I think that they don’t have nothing to do with that top six finish. But on the other side, we’ll see Greuther Fürth playing their game, trying, trying their best. Okay, let’s go there, let’s have fun. Okay. They lost 2-0 against Gladbach. But before that, they kept Eintracht to a goalless draw. They kept Freiburg to a goalless draw, two teams that are fighting for the European spots. The only thing about Greuther Fürth is that they are not scoring goals. Goalless in their last three games.
Alex:
So exactly what you’re saying Flash, under 3.5 is the way to go. I don’t trust Greuther Fürth to score. Hoffenheim is in bad form. This game should stay under. I see, I see Hoffenheim winning, but I see them winning 1-0. And I’m sorry, because I don’t want to jinx Kev’s approach.
Flash:
A bit late now. And the thing is, we’re going against the number one-
Alex:
Yeah, exactly-
Flash:
… Bundesliga capper as well. It’s like us. We’re like, I mean, I mean, listen, I’m like Fürth going to Bayern when I’m arguing with Kev and you, you are a bit like Stuttgart going to [inaudible 00:32:57].
Flash:
Okay. Kev, I don’t see four goals only because I don’t see both contributing or I see Hoffenheim just wanting to stop and not have four defeats in a row.
Kevin Hatchard:
Now I do. And I’ll tell you why I do because I’ve watched a fair bit of Hoffenheim recently. And the one thing they do is they leave the back door open. And if you actually look at Fürth’s away games this season, they’ve conceded a hell of a lot of goals, but actually they score in most of them. I think they’ve scored in 10 out of 14 away from home. So they don’t often draw a blank on the road. There’s no point in them going there and digging in for a 0-0. They’re going down. So what’s the point. So I think they will try and attack. And I think Hoffenheim will let them because Hoffenheim often commit when they attack. So I actually do think both teams will score here.
Kevin Hatchard:
I think it’s got to be lively because Hoffenheim, they’re not the kind of team that actually can dig in and grind out results. They’re not really built like that. Sebastian Hoeneß has kind of built them to attack. They do tend to take a lot of risks. I think it’s been more that they’ve come up against really good sides recently. Bochum I think was a strange game because Bochum worked out what to do against them and executed that game plan perfectly. So I think it’s more to do with the fact that Hoffenheim have had some tough games, but I think there’s loads of potential in that forward line. And I think Fürth can have a really exciting approach to the game.
Kevin Hatchard:
I might be totally wrong, but I actually think there will be goals in this. I think it’ll be more entertaining than people think. And actually in the reverse fixture, there were an absolute ton of goals. So I could see something like that happening again.
Alex:
Really 6-3?
Kevin Hatchard:
Well, not 6-3, but I think something lively. I think something like a 2-2 or 3-2 or something like that. I actually think we could see that.
Flash:
-135 for Hoffenheim, -1.5. I thought it was 2-0, 3-0 or a push just because Hoffenheim wanted to stop that rock-
Alex:
-135 for -1.5?
Flash:
Yeah. Let’s have a little look at them numbers. I’m sure it was -135. There you go, -135.
Alex:
So if you go further than that, you can take Greuther Fürth at around the same price, -135, give or take?
Flash:
Yeah? Fürth, +1.5-
Kevin Hatchard:
+1.5 for Fürth is +115, yeah.
Alex:
Yeah. But I’m saying +2 should be around -130.
Flash:
Oh yeah.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, yeah.
Alex:
Yeah.
Flash:
Yeah. I mean, it’s a tricky game, but then all of a sudden those that are not having a bet, all you’re doing is talking hot air. So let’s have a look at the official bet because there’s only one of us that have got the balls to actually go with this game. And it’s Kev, and it’s both teams to score and over 2.5 at -105, 2-1, 2-1 for Hoffenheim gets Kev’s and it keeps us under. I probably will play that under 3.5 though. But obviously with the form that Kev’s in, I don’t-
Kevin Hatchard:
Go for it.
Flash:
I cannot, I cannot. What you’re going at? It’s like David and Goliath. You’re getting your big sling on, throwing your stones, and you’re dead.
Alex:
Yeah, but that 2-1 pays both.
Flash:
I know, but then 3-1 I’m dead in the water. You know what I mean? No, I’m not putting my hand in no dog’s mouth. I’ll tell you what though. I’m happy to put my hand in this next dog’s mouth though, because I couldn’t believe the value I got, I locked it in. It’s Leverkusen versus Leipzig. Leverkusen +205. Remember at the start of the season. Doesn’t matter who they were playing Leverkusen, they would’ve been at +100. Now all of a sudden the freight train that is RB Leipzig winning home and way in Europe, in Bundesliga, +125. Is that not just that’s the end of the conversation? I mean, I look and I’m thinking, “Well, I see Leipzig scoring twice.” So is that don’t complicate it Kev of -110, or we’re going over 3 at +105, both teams to score? Let’s just throw everything in and you could do three or four bets and you could actually hit all three, all four in the same game.
Kevin Hatchard:
I think you just go goals here, because if you look at the big hitters, when they’ve met in the Bundesliga this season, there’ve been goals in almost every game. So Leverkusen lost 5-1 at home to Bayern. When they played Dortmund, there were seven goals in each match. When these two last met, Leverkusen won 3-1 in Leipzig, different Leipzig but still the truth. Leipzig have recently won 4-1 at Dortmund. They lost 3-2 at Bayern. They lost 4-1 at home to Bayern. So every time the big hitters meet, you get loads of goals.
Kevin Hatchard:
Leipzig I think will attack. They’ll play the game that they always play. I think they’ll make some changes. And Leverkusen aren’t quite the force they were because their best player, Florian Wirtz is injured. Jeremie Frimpong who’s a fantastic outlet down that right hand side is injured as well. So that’s been a big problem for them. But I just think both will go for it. I think this is going to be a really exciting game actually.
Flash:
Any hangover though, Kev for Leipzig because they went to Atalanta? Because you know on paper they had a tough game, but if you actually watched the game, they sucked Atalanta in and did as they liked. I mean that back four hardly broke sweat because they said, come on, come on and then just give it.
Kevin Hatchard:
I think this is a squad so good, so they can get away with it. So I could see them changing four or five players and still being okay. So I think they’re in a really good place right now because the coach has done a brilliant job and Nkunku’s been sensational, 30 goals in all competitions now.
Flash:
I mean Ash has paid their mortgage every game, it’s like Nkunku to score any time, bang.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah. And I do think the market this season’s been ever so slow with that. I tipped him up in midweek to score against Atalanta, and it was 3.1.
Flash:
What 3.1 any time?
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, 3.1 anytime.
Flash:
I mean, there’s a value now for any time, it’s replaced the old style and the old methods of first goal scored.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah. Well, just Jarrod, Jarrod going for West Ham against Lyon on Thursday night was 4.3. So massive prices-
Flash:
I’ve erased the first night from my memory, Kev. +160-
Kevin Hatchard:
If you fancy these guys who were in form, it’s the way to go, I genuinely believe it’s the way to go. I always think first goal score is a tough one because you’re really having yourself in there and you get a bigger price. But I just think, well actually, if you are pretty confident a player’s going to play either the full 90 or at least most of the game and the team’s on top and scoring goals and he’s scoring goals, then I always think you’re going to get a decent price with that.
Kevin Hatchard:
So I wouldn’t go near the result personally, because I don’t really know where Leverkusen are at right now because they’re probably going to get the Champions League spot, unless something horribly … goes horribly wrong. But they’ve lost some key players and they’ve just taken a bit of a psychological knock in that way. The drew 0-0 with Bochum. Again, they maybe should have done better in. So I just think goals here, as all the big games between the top clubs have been this season.
Flash:
Yeah. I see Leipzig maybe doing the job exactly the same as they did with Dortmund. I see like identical, but maybe not as easy as the 4-1. But when I’m seeing Leipzig to score twice and in the form they’re in, home or away at -110, I was like … Alex, surely Leipzig score twice. And I don’t care then if Leverkusen win 4-2.
Alex:
No, but it’s very important for Leverkusen. Yeah, they could easily finish in top three. They are one of the favorites to do that. But let’s not forget that they have three matches against from the last five rounds against teams that are competing with for the top four spots. They have with Leipzig, they have with Freiburg, they have with Hoffenheim. So it’s very important, even this match is very important for them.
Alex:
On paper by far RB Leipzig is better right now in the form that they are. And Nkunku, we named him, 30 goals this season, and two goals against Atalanta. Amazing. Tedesco impact is undeniable since replacing Marsch. He has 2.2 points per game in the last 15 Bundesliga matches though. That is huge. But let’s not forget also that Leverkusen are without Tah, Bellarabi, Adli, Fosu-Mensah, Frimpong, Florian Wirtz. And okay, Patrik Schick is back, but let’s not forget that Patrik Schick missed seven games and he’s still the second top scorer in the Bundesliga behind Robert Lewandowski and the third one is exactly Nkunku.
Alex:
It’s a fight here with Diaby versus Nkunku. If you remember, the former players of PSG, Diaby started to deliver many, many assists for Leverkusen and that is his main job right now in that team. He’s very creative. He has a great pace.
Alex:
I think that this game has goals all over it, but I wouldn’t take anyone of RB Leipzig pk at -145. I don’t think that they lose this game. And exactly like you said, RB Leipzig to score twice, at least twice on their own, but over 3 goals at plus money, Alex classic at -110, I think that everything is on the cards here. I would even go with both teams to score in both halfs at +500.
Flash:
It’s amazing. I mean, again, if you just wanted to go on the basis of what we’ve seen from Leverkusen and the situation they’re in against this runaway train Kev of Leipzig, there’d be people that are just seeing the +125 and going, “What am I missing?” Because they did not have a hard game in Atalanta in midweek. So it’s crazy.
Flash:
Let’s have a little look at the officials. This is a great game to watch by the way. So make sure you do enjoy it because we’ve all got. Listen over 3 +105, over 3 +105. For me, it’s just Leipzig to score twice at -110. I mean, everyone in there get yourselves in the chat now. If you want some questions answered, then now’s the time to type it because I’m going to remind you that we’re America’s favorite sportsbook , but for a reason, and it’s because you are making us the home of the soccer better. And you are part of that as well. Your knowledge, that froze in because then when people are watching, they see the chat down the side, you tweak something and give them inspiration as well.
Flash:
Also, I’d like you to ring the bell. Ring the bell means you never miss any content again. So that means on Monday, you’ll know that there’s a La Liga show and a bonus Premier League show that’s outside of the others because we’ve got midweek soccer action in Europe next week. And if you are on social media, especially Twitter, then please follow @betussoccer. And then we might even give you some late updates for either team news or plays. And if there’s any live plays in play, then that’s the place for it to be.
Flash:
So anyway, the first one was from Rick. Okay. You can take this Kev. Can you see Bayern throwing it in and have a small bet on Bielefeld at a really decent price?
Kevin Hatchard:
No. Total opposite. I think if anything, you’re going to see a really angry Bayern. I think Bielefeld were ripped apart by Wolfsburg. I think they’re running out of steam, turned out this week, we think Patrick Wimmer is leaving at the end of the season. So that’s a blow for them. I just feel like they’ve completely lost momentum. And I just think this is going to be a really tough game for them. I know they’ve had a couple of decent results against Bayern in the past, they drew 3-3 at the Allianz Arena last season, but I think they’re going to get smacked.
Flash:
Okay. Same for you Alex.
Alex:
I’m itching to add three more bets here, but ah, I’m on the edge.
Flash:
Well, then save them, save them. And if you do like them, then make sure we give Twitter something to enjoy, you know? Okay. Let’s have a little look at all the official best bets because there is a little bit of yellow there. I’m happy. I’m going with Mainz, money line at +100. Kev’s gone Augsburg team total over 1.5, Hoffenheim and Fürth both team to score and over 2.5. Don’t think there’s three, four goals in that game, but again cannot go against Kev. Leverkusen-Leipzig over 3 for both him and for Alex at plus money, and Leipzig for me just to score twice at -110.
Flash:
We need a really good week this week everybody. Obviously we’re up 13. We want to get to our original total or target, which was 20. So from Kev, Kev, what games are you doing over the weekend? Do you love a Friday night?
Kevin Hatchard:
No game on Friday because it’s a public holiday in Germany. So no games, so-
Flash:
Don’t work on holidays?
Kevin Hatchard:
No, don’t have Bundesliga on Good Friday.
Alex:
Happy Easter, right? Happy Easter.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah. Happy Easter, exactly. So they never have Good Friday games. What they do have-
Flash:
Are you chocolatier, Kev?
Kevin Hatchard:
Yes. So I’m looking forward to that. So first game is Augsburg-Hertha on Saturday. So I’m looking forward to that. And then I’ve got Union against Frankfurt on Sunday.
Alex:
That’s it. That’s it. I’m adding Union Berlin money line. That’s it +115. Make it happen.
Flash:
Oh, that’s a late, that’s a really late show. Do you want to know? I tell you what. Yeah, I’m not. Put it on Twitter. Okay?
Alex:
No, no, no. Add it on my official picks, please.
Flash:
Oh, have you done it?
Alex:
Union money line.
Flash:
Oh yeah, yeah. No, listen. No, listen to me. Your added picks on Twitter, they still go on your official. They still go on your official records when you do late like or [inaudible 00:47:15]
Alex:
Do I have to talk with the social media guys?
Flash:
Yeah, no exact, 100%. I do it.
Kevin Hatchard:
I love this bit of show admin. It’s like we’ve got bonus footage for all of the …
Flash:
Exactly. There you go, Kev. There you go. We want to be the number one show on BetUS for a reason. So I’ve got to get your tentacles out. You know what I mean? Alex is going to put in his bonus pick, which will go on his record, and it will be on Twitter. If you’re not on Twitter, you were lucky enough to hear him blurt it out. Okay? So we’ve got to give the Twitter followers something a little bit added extra. Kev, have a great weekend. Don’t eat too much chocolate. Alex, whereas you just do everything in excess anyway. So it’s no good. Chocolate or beer, chocolate or beer?
Alex:
Beer.
Flash:
Okay. Good lad. Good lad. I don’t like either. Okay. Everyone in the chat, have a great weekend. Happy holidays to you all. We’ll see you again on Monday. And don’t forget, coming up later on today is the FA Cup semifinals, Manchester City versus Liverpool, and Chelsea versus Palace. That’ll be over at-
Alex:
Liverpool all the way.
Flash:
2:30. I think the unders, but again, I’ve got three selections in that game and one in the Chelsea-Palace game and you’ll catch that at 2:30 Eastern Time today. It’ll be short, sharp, to the point. So join me then. You take care.
