X
Skip to content

Bundesliga Picks Matchday 32 | Bundesliga odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

Flash:

Welcome to the BetUS Soccer Channel. I’m Flash and excuse me if I’m sort of laughing underneath, but I was writing in my head sort of jokes for one of my experts. We are America’s favorite sportsbook. This is the Bundesliga Show. It is week 32. They’re still up for grabs at the top of the table. And at the bottom, there’s teams getting very, very nervous.

I’d like you to subscribe if you haven’t, and also I’d like you to ring the bell because that means that you’ll get notified and you’ll know that obviously the show now is normally in 24 hours time. So really appreciate you all joining us. If you’d like your odds and your props, then type in betustv.com/odds. And if you want a $50 free bet, then betustv.com/fifty is where you want to be picking that up. We’ll have records and we’ll chat, will come from you, which is always a quite intelligent chat for this show to be honest. And we’ll have a Q and A at the end.

I’m just looking one, two, three, four. I think we’ve got six games today or I’ve just added one. But I’ve got two absolutely outstanding experts and I’ve got the international voice of soccer, stroke football, dependent on where you are and the other one I wrote, Dortmund’s number one fan or any team that wins because if you look, you’ll see that Alex classic tip has now got [inaudible 00:01:20] Malen shirt on just to celebrate there. Very, very good. So Alex, honestly, you must have more shirts than anyone I know.

Alex:

I went with them yesterday, so of course for that victory I will wear their t-shirt, their jersey today. And yes, Dortmund ’til the end of the season. Come on, let’s do it.

Flash:

Okay. Yeah, Dortmund, very, very impressive last week, Kev. Could have scored double digits. Looked like they were going to score, but we’ve got to sort of taper ourselves down, the enthusiasm for Dortmund. We can’t get too excited because their opposition were epitomized being on the beach because they were awful as much as Dortmund were very good.

Kev:

Yeah, Wolfsburg shouldn’t be on the beach because they’re pushing to Europe. Their season’s far from done. Niko Kovac produced a really good performance against Mainz recently in what was a really big game. So I think the nature of the defeat came as a shock. I don’t think they expected to be shredded in the way that they were, but this was Dortmund on top form. Adeyemi playing well, Malen playing well. Bellingham was excellent. So that can happen to you.

What’s been really interesting I think is that at home, Dortmund are playing like a vintage Bayern team. The kind of swagger they would normally play with, the kind of results they would normally get. They’ve won 10 in a row at home and they’ve got 41 goals across those 10 games, so that’s title winning team. The problem they’ve got is when they go away from home. So two of the games they’ve got left are home games. That’s important and I would expect them to win both of those. I think the key is going to be the Augsburg game because they’re awkward. That’s not an easy place to go and so we’ll see what happens there. But they’re doing their bit. They’re applying pressure to Bayern and then we’ll just have to see how that goes.

Alex:

If they wanted to do the repeat, they should have won against Bochum if they wanted to do-

Flash:

What I should have just said better away form, Alex. If they’d had better away form, Bayern be doing the chasing.

Alex:

Yeah. True.

Flash:

What about at the bottom, Alex?

Kev:

I think it evens out. I think it evens out. I think if you look at, because the temptation right is to go, “Oh, if only they’d held on against Stuttgart. If only they’d managed to get a winner against Bochum.” But let’s not forget they’ve got a really late winner against Augsburg. They’ve got a really late equalizer at home to Bayern. They’ve got a really late winner at Mainz. So these things do even themselves out in terms of they’ve had probably won games they should have drawn. They’ve ended up drawing games they should have won. That happens to you over the course of the season. But I think if they do come up short, I think as a whole that away form just hasn’t quite been good enough.

Alex:

And the good thing for Dortmund is the fact that Leipzig are still fighting for a champions league sport and next week they are going against Bayern Munich. So if RB Leipzig was there like six, seven points clear in the top four, I don’t think that we would have a problem. We should already give the crown to Bayern.

Kev:

It’s funny you say that Alex. I’ve been told, a friend of mine was working at the Leipzig game recently, the semi-final against Freiburg and all they were talking about actually apparently wasn’t just the cut win. It was actually this game. They were talking about that trip to Bayern and how much they want to see Bayern knocked off the Bundesliga top spot.

Alex:

I think that every team in the league wants that. I think that every team in the league wants that, has a end of an era.

Flash:

Dynasty.

Alex:

Yeah.

Flash:

Domination. The end of the domination.

Alex:

With Bayern to lose the title. I think that everybody will fight for that. And on top of that, we are seeing Bayern struggling lately, so who knows? We will see what it’ll be interesting.

Flash:

Yeah, I mean obviously, it’s always easy to talk about the sides at the top, but let’s start talking about the sides at the bottom because we saw some sides really, really show that they desperate to stay in the Bundesliga last weekend. I mean just go with Schalke, by the way. Schalke went on the road. They picked up three points and they came out on the right side of five goals but they weren’t lucky. I mean Kev, I know that you did that game but they were very, very good and they had belief for nearly the whole 90 minutes on a Friday night on the road.

Kev:

Yeah, they were the better team, no question.

Flash:

They were.

Kev:

They made chances throughout the game, scored some excellent goals. Thought goals one and two were absolutely brilliant. I thought the Tom Kraub’s goal is as good a goal as I’ve seen Schalke score this season in terms of a team move. They’ve scored better individual goals than that. But yeah, I thought considering they’ve struggled to score goals all season, that was quite an impressive attacking display for a team that usually finds that stuff hard.

So yeah, that was a sign and I do think since Thomas Rice got there, they’ve really woken up. They’ve had a lot more cohesion. If only he’d been there at the start of the season because that’s what they wanted. Bochum is the club he was at the time, wouldn’t let him talk to Schalke at the time and then eventually got that move anyway.

Flash:

Okay Alex, are we any closer to knowing who’s going to go through the trap door?

Alex:

I think that Hertha is one of the teams to consider here. So despite winning against Stuttgart, they have a very, very difficult match against the Koln on the road. Their road form is awful. On top of that, I still think that Bochum coming of very poor form lately despite that amazing match against Dortmund. I don’t know. I hope the Schalke stays because lately they looked very good. But yeah, even Hoffenheim is not safe right now. So yeah, three games, all the teams have a difficult schedule we will see. But this is a very, very important round for all of them so I think that we’ll have a clear image next week.

Flash:

Yeah, top, middle and bottom, it’s just brilliant. I think the Bundesliga, to be fair, has been outstanding all season long because we’ve seen peaks and troughs from every single side. We’ve seen players burst onto the scene. We’ve seen them go quiet. We’ve seen young talent emerge and that’s why we all love it and that’s why you are here. But why you are here, any chance of a thumbs up?

Let’s have a little look at the records please because I’ve just been messing about trying to really, really boost. But Kev is sitting there at 18.42 and still Bundesliga record is 21.61 units. That’s see if we can get up to 30. I’ve got one this week that could get it up to 31, it’s home. Okay, so let’s have a little look at our first game. Friday night. It’s Koln versus Hertha. Kev, are you doing this game?

Kev:

Yeah, I am. This is my only game of the weekend actually because I’ll be doing this game on Friday and I’ll be heading to Liverpool on Saturday for Eurovision, so I’ll be looking forward to that very much. So this is really interesting. This is really interesting because your normal gut feeling would be Friday night, Koln at home or under the lights, all that stuff. However, Koln is safe. That’s the first thing.

So Koln is safe. They put a hell of a lot into that win at Leverkusen in last week. Don’t really have much to play for. Steffen Baumgart can talk all he wants about, yeah, we’ve only got two home games left, it’s very important, blah blah blah. But the truth is Hertha need this.

Now, I think before the coaching change, I would’ve been very skeptical but I think since Pal Dardai’s got there, the first two games weren’t great but I think all along he was targeting that Stuttgart game. I thought they were the best team against Stuttgart. Stuttgart started well but being over the piece, Hertha were the better team and they’ve done this before, got surprising results under Dardai when they looked as though they were doomed. So for me, that minus 115 for Koln is complete no, no. I could see Hertha getting something out the game.

Flash:

Okay, it’s Koln at minus 115. Was minus 120, so that will already tell you there’s money coming in for Hertha who are plus 310. The draw is at plus 280. The over two and a half at minus 120. Hertha can’t be second guessed. They have got to go out there and they’ve got to basically do something that they’ve not really done all season, that’s win on the road and keep a hard work inside.

Listen, two hard work insides here, the better quality undoubtedly is with the home side, but which home side are we going to have? Because we don’t know who’s turning up at the moment with these sides that are in a comfortable situation, Alex, because like last week, we had Leverkusen. Yes, they had distractions. They did not try an absolute jot on Friday night and then all of a sudden, well let’s see how they go in the Europa League. If there’s any justice, they’ll get beat. Yeah, it’s a tough game this, but for me, I’ve got to go with the home side just because it’s minus 115 at home under the lights and last week both let me down. We’ll I say both let me down. I’ll bet Schalke in the end during the game. Go on Alex.

Alex:

There are many issues with backing the home site here. Not only they are safe, they should be playing vacation already. They are safe after last week’s win. They failed to record to back to back victories in the Bundesliga this term. So that tells you enough about their form. They enter this match on the back of a five match winless run in front of their fans. But we’re looking also at Hertha the worst away team in the league with just one win all season long and two draws in 15 games and 36 goals considered, just 14 scored in the process.

So yeah, if Koln wasn’t safe, I would go for Koln. But because Koln are safe right now, I can’t trust them in this match. So I really don’t know how to. Maybe goals are the way to go because I’m sure that Hertha will enter this match all guns blazing. This is a must win. Basically every match is a must win for them because they are five points behind the first salvation spot. So I think that the goal is over 2.5 at minus 120 is the way to go is the most valuable bet.

Flash:

Yeah, I think you’ve got a point because Hertha will have to keep going. Both teams are scoring over probably looks like the way to go as well because Hertha, it doesn’t matter if they win four three or they win two one. They’ve got to keep going because I don’t think a draw’s going to be good enough for them. Although some of the teams around them at the bottom have got very, very tough games. But anyway, it’s a Friday night. Home side under the lights let me down last week but very, very few times this season as that actually emerged.

So let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks please and it’s Koln money line minus 115. Was minus 120. I’m 5 cents in front on my price now because it’s minus 115.

Let’s move on to game number two. Bayern at minus 750 against the Schalke side is showing real spirit and togetherness and being rewarded and creating chances even though they’re not burying them all. And a plus 1500 tells you most of the story. Draw is at plus 900. Schalke, if they don’t get beat by three goals then you’re going to be picking up minus 105 but the total’s under over four goals with the over four at plus 100. Alex, do we see four, five, or we just going to see Bayern do enough to get the W?

Alex:

Yeah, probably Bayern will do enough to get the win here. Schalke very good lately, but I don’t think that they have the quality to pull off the offset against the Bayern side that is under pressure right now playing at home. I think that a short win. I think that over plus 2.5 on the Asian handicap at plus 105 is a great bet.

I don’t see a lot of goals here. I probably see Bayern and under 4.5 if the under over is set at four. So even Bayern under 3.5 goals, I don’t see them scoring so, so many goals. They disappointed me last week with a short win against Werder. They considered in the last minutes of the game I had them to cover the spread there. So yeah, all the value bets here in my opinion are on Schalke, even though I think that Bayern will get the three points. It would be amazing if Schalke would be able to pull up the upset here. Amazing.

Flash:

Yeah, the number that springs off the page to me though is Schalke just a score at minus 120. As I said, they’re creating chances and they know they’ve got to keep going. And the big thing Kev, is that they’ve had success. So all of a sudden it’s like when a manager tells you something, you’re not quite sure but you implement it and it comes off. All of a sudden you’re like, oh okay. We’ll just keep doing this. Maybe Bayern to win and both teams to score, but Schalke to score at minus 120 looks like a bet where you could be four nil down and still get paid.

Kev:

Yeah, I think that certainly makes a lot of sense. Bolter played very well in the last away game. They couldn’t get goals from midfield. They have struggled to score goals all season. The way I look at it is that plus two and a half for Schalke at minus 105 on the handicap, that feels like a price that should be there against Bayern at their best. But this is not Bayern at their best and it hasn’t been for a few weeks.

And if you look at the games they’ve played, they weren’t great against Freiburg. They snuck a one nil win. They went out to Freiburg in the cup at home. I did the game at Werder last week and they had to work ever so hard. They really did and they only made one massive chance in the first half, which Pavlenka saved from Paval’s header and they deserved to win but they certainly didn’t play particularly well. I might be wrong but I just don’t see Bayern cutting loose here. I think the pressure is really inhibiting them at the moment. I don’t think they’re making as many chances as they normally would. And if you could basically give Schalke a two goal start, then I think that gives you real scope. And if Schalke score, suddenly Bayern need four for you to lose your bet. So that’s a position I’d like to be in.

Flash:

Okay. There’s a lot of people who obviously the way that you make money out of Bayern them this year is Bayern win and both teams to score because they’ve not kept many clean sheets or you just go with any time scorer. Last week, tentative towards like [inaudible 00:17:20] and you remember you only need one of them.

So let’s have a little look at the official picks because it’s obviously Bayern needs to just make sure they get a W. So it doesn’t matter how they do it but Schalke at plus two and a half goals. If they score as Kev said, then Bayern have got to score a minimum of four. Then I’m just looking down here. You’re only getting plus 115 for Bayern to be over three and a half team total as well. So Schalke plus two and a half at minus 105. Alex is going nowhere near it because he’s hoping that just Bayern get beat and Dortmund win.

Okay, move on to game number three. Okay it’s Frankfurt at plus 115. I’m supporting my Frankfurt shirt at home to a Mainz, plus 210 who was so, so disappointing last week. First off performance, Kev, was like nothing short of sloppy, I would say, absolutely. They hardly created. They were like down. It’s like what is going on here? This is a home side on a Friday night in a champion’s league position or just basically a champion’s league form for most of the year and yet, they’re getting turnover rightly so by a Schalke. The draw is at plus 280. I think the draw is a massive runner in this game.

Kev:

Well I think there’s an element of regression to the mean here because you wouldn’t normally expect Mainz to go 10 unbeaten in the league and they have. Then they went to Wolfsburg and got smashed. I think that really rocked them. I think the nature of that defeat was a real shock to the system and it felt like there was a bit of a hangover in the early part of that game against Schalke and suddenly they realized they were in a game.

What was really important I think for Schalke in that game was that Mainz equalized through Barreiro. And you thought okay, this is where it turns. And the crowd were already up at that stage and you felt like there was a real chance of them going on and winning the game. And then Tom Kraub scores within seven minutes and makes it two one. And I think that just deflated the crowd again and even though they got it back to two two with a brilliant free kick, Schalke in the end were deserved winners.

Now, this is a little bit different because this is a Darby. It’s important to remember that. It’s not one of the iconic Darbies, but it is an important Darby to both of these teams and they’ve talked a lot about it in the buildup as well. And we know that Frankfurt’s a club in turmoil at the moment. Now I know that seems ridiculous because they got to the knockouts in the champion’s league and they’ve just reached a cup final, but it’s been decided that Oliver Glasner will leave at the end of the season, the coach. He’s earned his shot of the final.

I’m really pleased that he hasn’t been binned before the final because I think that would’ve been a real shame. But he had a real go at a journalist last week and he since apologized for that and there’s a feeling that he’s been agitated for a while. And if you look at their league form in the last two or three months, it’s been wretched. It’s been really, really poor. However, I think here, I looked at the price for on Kolo Muani to score and any anytime that he’s plus 150 in a game is you have to consider it. And I think Mainz, if you look at the way they’ve defended in the last couple of games, conceded three to Schalke, conceded three to Wolfsburg. Well if Frankfurt get three, you’d think Kolo Muani is going to be one of those scorers. So that for me is the way to go.

Flash:

Yeah. Or just Frankfurt plus 115 because if Mainz put in a 10% increase in their effort and their application from last week, then Frankfurt are absolute certainties because Mainz were very, very short in what was required at home. Now they’re going on the road against the Frankfurt side who have the ability to shred you, especially in them fallback areas. And I always spot this because it’s like fallbacks detached from their center back. The center backs were detached from their center backs last week. One was going in too deep, leaving space in behind for runners. And I’ve always said about Frankfurt, Alex, is they play great triangles and they have good runners off the ball. Only in like five and 10 yards slide balls and that brings in Muani and also Muani getting across defenders as well. So yeah, obviously Kev’s hinted towards going towards Muani. You like Frankfurt or do you like Mainz?

Alex:

I can’t back Frankfurt on the type of the football that they are playing lately. Their last Bundesliga win was back in February this year. Oliver Glassner is red carded and he will probably be into stands this week. Their only two wins since February came in the cup games against the Union and Stuttgart. Their main objectives mainly is to win the cup at the beginning of June against Leipzig. I don’t know what is happening with them. You can’t back them at the way that they’re playing right now.

You can’t back Mainz at the way that they’re playing in the last two games, right? But they are still scoring goals and both defenses are bad, not only Mainz’s. So we’re looking for goals here and of course when you see, okay now it went to minus 140, but I took it at minus 130. I’m still taking at minus 140 because I think that we will see at least three goals in this one. I don’t know who will win this game. It might be even a two to draw, taking consideration that Frankfurt Bundesliga is almost over. They’re not fighting for European spots. Mainz, they’re still in contention for a conference league one so it’ll be an entertaining game. But yeah, looking for ATS, looking for goals here is the way to go. You can’t predict the outcome. Still, I think that Mainz will not lose. Pointing to score and the over. Yeah, you can make it an Alex classic at almost even money here.

Flash:

Yeah, I just think that if Frankfurt get themselves in front. I mean it’s maybe one of those in play because if Frankfurt are up in the first 25 minutes, I’m happy to go live and say Frankfurt don’t get beat in the game. They win the game, and you can go with a minus one. But again, let’s have a little look at the official picks for me. I cannot trust that away side after what I saw last week. Yeah, Kolo Muani anytime scorer at plus 150. Over two and a half goals at minus 140 now. For Alex, the over two and half has obviously gone up from minus 130 to minus 140.

In the chat we have King Petreli of Kenya. Obviously he’s a real king and he’s offering to send his private jet to you, Alex, to have you go visit them. Almost do like a scouting mission for me to see how he lives. Okay, they’re also saying that they love this show so much because if their bet loses, they can blame us. That’s exactly what I do. I blame-

Alex:

They can blame you.

Flash:

No. I blame Kev or I blame Alex. Rebel. Okay, let’s move on. I digress. We don’t talk about losers on this show. Union Berlin versus Freiburg. Wow, this is a proper head knocker. Union Berlin at plus 115. Freiburg at plus 255. Call me stupid, call me mad, I’m not getting involved but I don’t think the away side get beat here. Draw plus 225. Freiburg minus 175 to score. Union Berlin plus 155. Do we think that Freiburg, Alex, at minus 135 double chance is the way to go?

Alex:

We’re talking about two teams fighting in direct fight basically for the last champion’s league spot. They are equal on points at 56, so this is probably the match of the season for both sides. We’re talking about of Union Berlin who are unbeaten at home this season. Nine wins and six draws. We’re talking about Freiburg who have the second best record on the road.

I think that this will be a very, very nice game and if you look at their last games, four one Freiburg at home, four one Union. Again on the road, we should see goals here. I think that over two is the way to go, but I took it further because we might see a one one draw.

Flash:

That’s what I wrote.

Alex:

If one team scores, I think that also the other one will score. I’m scared about that goal is draw, but I’m still going for both to score because it’s at plus money. Only both to score is at plus money. Yeah, it’s unbelievable and I don’t think that they will defend. I don’t think that they will have a better defensive approach. Okay, let’s say that Union Berlin can afford to draw this game because they are better on goals difference. But I don’t think that that will be the case here. So both in to score is the way to go for it.

Flash:

Yeah, I like draw halftime, to be honest. I did write one one here, Kev, when I just couldn’t split them. I just could not split these two sides because I’m thinking Freiburg, they’re just going to sit back. We know that Union don’t create massive amounts of chances, but we also know that you give only on a couple of chances. They probably will score one of them.

Kev:

Yeah, I found this a really hard game. I was surprised this was on here, to be honest. I can understand why Alex is going for BTTS on price. But this could go anyway because the thing is they can afford to walk away both of them with a draw and say, “Do you know what? We’ll see how we get on in the last couple of games.” Because the teams below them aren’t catching them. So that’s not the concern, I don’t think.

I the concern is each other in a way. And so I think there’ll be a bit of fear here. I think there’ll be a bit of trepidation. Normally I don’t like the halftime stuff but actually, I think you’re right, Flash. I think it could be a drawer at halftime while they just kind of work out what each other’s doing. So yeah, a tricky one. Really, really tricky game because I think it’s right where they are in the table that you could put a cigarette paper between them barely. I think this is a really tough game to call.

Alex:

The thing is that Union has an easier schedule than Freiburg be because Union are playing Hoffenheim on the road.

Flash:

Yeah, but Hoffenheim may be right in the middle of a trench. The way the Bundasliga is that this year, there’s something to play for nearly every single team. There’s very few teams. I mean you’ve got the conference league. You’ve got Europa league. You got champion’s league. You’ve got the trap door. You don’t want to get being dragged into that, the playoff situation.

I just don’t think that Union Berlin or Freiburg want the other team to pick up three points. That’s why I’m looking at draw plus 225. And I wrote down one one, I mean I just thought that it’s one one or it’s nil nil. I would definitely go for maybe nil nil at halftime because both of these sides, they don’t mind scoring in the second half. And then obviously I think what I would say is if Union go one nil up, I think they win the game. Whereas Freiburg go one nil up, I think you’ve definitely got your one one draw. A tricky game. Tricky game. But it’s one of them games that we really like out of two unfashionable and not going to say unpopular because they’re very popular in their areas, but they’re not the ones that you’d expect to be holding to a five position.

Alex:

In Champion’s league.

Flash:

Exactly. It’s crazy. But we-

Alex:

Imagine that one of these two sides will be in the Champion’s league next them because Liverpool, they don’t care.

Flash:

Yeah, well we’ll just make loads of money out of them because they won’t be good enough for the Champion’s league. And then they’ll obviously maybe come third and we’ll get them in the Europa league or wherever they go from there. Once you get to that Champion’s league, you can’t fall out of Europe. They find another competition for you. You go from Champion’s league to Europa league and if you’re no good in Europa, they send you to the conference league. It’s brilliant. But again, they both deserve something, so that’s why I’ve gone for the one one draw. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Both teams to score plus 100 looks like the way to go or you just up it to the draw at plus 225 or draw halftime at plus money two and just run away.

Okay, let’s move on because I tell you what, this is a throwback. Here we go. Dortmund plus… Oh sorry, plus my boots minus 350. Gladbach at plus 700. I had Gladbach here at plus 450. Draw is at plus 575. It could be another runner. Gladbach at plus two, minus 125. That means they’ve got to lose by three goals for you to lose. Over four goals at plus 105. I’m not sure I see four or five goals in this game because Gladbach and minus 190 to score but Dortmund at minus one 50 to score three. Kev, it’s too heavy on the home side against the side that loves to spoil the party and they have a fret. And Dortmund do still give up chances and if Gladbach get a sniff and go in front in this game, wow, we are going to see nerves and we’re going to see what Dortmund are actually made of.

Kev:

Yeah we could do. I think Gladbach have caused them problems at Borussia Park in recent years, but they tend to really struggle when they go to Signal Iduna Park and they are flaky, Gladbach. There’s no doubt about it. It’s been a really disappointing season. I know they’re trying to paint it as a stable season where they’re trying to develop and all that stuff, but I’m not sure about them here at all. I think Dortmund do win the game. I think we do probably see goals and that’s the route I’m going down because I’m going to back Karim Adeyemi score. Thought he was absolutely brilliant-

Flash:

Well, that could be goal.

Kev:

… last week against Wolfsburg.

Flash:

That’s misleading, Kev, because you said you’re going down to goals route. With your track record, Dortmund could win this one nil now and Adeyemi score.

Kev:

They’re not going to win one nil.

Flash:

No, no. They might lose two one an Adeyemi score.

Kev:

I think Gladbach are very open. I think defensively, they’ve been poor all season. I think you can get at them. I think Dortmund’s home record is absolutely outstanding. I mean they’re averaging four goals a game over the last 10 games stretch at home. So I’m not sure Gladbach can deal with that. I’m not sure they can.

For me Wolfsburg are a way better team than Gladbach for me.

Flash:

If they’re at it.

Kev:

So, if you look at what Dortmund just did to Wolfsburg, I don’t see why Gladbach is suddenly going to be mega motivated here. I think they’ll look to play okay, but I just can’t see… Look, it could happen, you never know. It’s the pressure of a title race, you never know. I think you are right I think plus 700’s too big. I think that is too far, but I’m not sure how we can make an angle out of that personally.

So I’m just looking at look, if I think Dortmund are going to win, if I think they’re going to score two or three goals, who do I think will get those goals? Malen is an option. Haller is an option. He started scoring goals. Bellingham’s an option because he started bringing goals from midfield. But for me, Adeyemi’s the one-

Alex:

Everyone is an option.

Kev:

… because if you look at recent games, Adeyemi’s been in really good goal scoring positions so he is either scored or he’s missed chances but he’s always been in those positions. So I’m happy enough with that.

Flash:

Yeah, I understand totally. Now let’s get the biased point of view from Alex. Alex, Dortmund, is this a game? Will you be nervous if it’s like nil nil at halftime?

Alex:

No, no. I can’t be nervous at home with Dortmund. They are the best home team in the league this season. They are averaging three plus goal scores per game this season. I can’t be nervous against a team like Gladbach. Like Kev said, they’re playing an open game and I think that this is the perfect opponent for the way that Dortmund are playing.

I think that if Dortmund scores in the first 15, 20 minutes of the game, I think that Dortmund will destroy them because Gladbach are not even enjoying this end of the season. And if you look also at the numbers, absolutely brilliant at home, as I said, Dortmund season. They scored so, so many goals and they cover the spread against so many opponents. Plus, the last time Gladbach won points, point, point at this venue-

Flash:

A draw?

Alex:

No, no, no. In 2014, they won. After that, they lost every single game. In the last two games at this venue. They allowed nine goals without even scoring. Basically, Dortmund in the last three Bundesliga games in front of their fans against Gladbach, they even kept clean sheets. So I don’t see Gladbach pulling off any upset here and who’s going for Gladbach is totally crazy.

Flash:

I just think that that there is cherry picking at its absolute finest because you could say that Gladbach are due because they haven’t won there since 2014. And by the way, let me tell you now, and I’m happy to die by the sword because you know I certainly live by it that if Gladbach get the early chances that Wolfsburg had last week, you’ll be sitting very, very uncomfortable. And I wrote down the individual personalities of Gladbach, if they fancy it and they want to catch the eye of a potential suitor, this is the best stage. And I’ve seen this before and yes I agree.

Listen, I’m not that crazy. I think that Dortmund probably do win the game. Do I think that they win four nil? might be four two. So I mean I don’t think Gladbach get beat by three because I think Gladbach definitely contribute, but 700 for a team that has a track record for upsetting the apple car, I’ve got to be there. I’ve got to take it. Anderson’s saying always on the other side, minus two is definitely a push, maybe three one. Okay, so that’s a three there for Anderson. Yeah, as I said all season, Gladbach are on my naughty step but you’re going to give me plus 700 for them to upset the apple cart. I’ve got to take it. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Adeyemi anytime scorer, looks big by the way, Kev at plus 240.

Kev:

Yeah.

Flash:

I was expecting it to be a 180.

Kev:

I was amazed.

Flash:

Yeah.

Kev:

But I think that’s because he’s a winger. We see this a lot. If you remember we had a good run within Nkunku because when the market sees players as a winger, they do tend to give you a bigger price. And Adeyemi’s not really. I think anybody who’s watched him play, he plays wide, yes, but he’s not an old-fashioned winger. He’s a wide forward in the way that Malen is on the other side. So that explains the plus 240. But I think if you look at his recent form and the way that Dortmund play, hundred percent that’s the bet.

Alex:

And-

Flash:

It’s the way that Dortmund play because Dortmund really, although Haller’s your number nine, if you close your eyes as the ball’s going down the right and then you opened them again, you’d see five yellow shirts inside a blanket of both goalposts. I mean you think you could have Bellingham in there. You could have Julian Brandt. You could obviously have Reus on. You’ve got too many and then you’ve got maybe I’d say Reus, Reyna, Adeyemi. They all love to get in. And as you say, or it was Alex one of you two, but I think you both agree it is like when we used to have Muller, Lewandowski, all of them, [inaudible 00:37:57] whatever you want. They’re all getting in there because they all fancy it because of the success that they’ve had. Alex, you were saying before I rudely interrupt you.

Alex:

Yeah. That Dortmund has scored more goals into 2023 calendar year, 48 than any side in Europe’s top five leagues. And also, they scored first in each of their 13 home wins this season.

Flash:

Yeah, so they’re due a blank. Okay, that’s good. Thank you very much for that. So anyway, Gladbach money line plus 700. I have double dipped though just in case it is a type game because I’ve got my Gladbach plus two at minus 125. I don’t don’t see them getting beat by three. If it’s two, it’s a push but I just think that come on, I want to be really cheering them on.

Okay, let’s move on to our final game. Stuttgart at plus 145 which is short enough. But then when you look at the opposition being Leverkusen at plus 70, did not try a jot last week at home in a Darby. Just took the L and they huffed and they puffed. I tell you what, I didn’t see Diaby make a five yard sprint all game. And then you put this game in between two semi-finals against tiring opposition. The draw is at plus 265. Let’s go with you, Alex because over two and half is minus 135. I’m just going to have to have a little look to see why this is on here.

Alex:

It was clear that Leverkusen prioritize the Europa league semi-final.

Flash:

It might come back and bite them on the backside.

Alex:

It might, but again, I don’t think that they knew their fate because they’re not in the Champion’s league race. It might bite them like you said, but I don’t think so. I’m still thinking that they will qualify in the final and they will have a good chance to win it.

So again, this is a match between the two champions, the two Europa league legs, the semi-final legs, right? So I think that Stuttgart has more to fight for than Leverkusen. I even think the Stuttgart can take the three points. But I see goals. It’s a bit risky to take one of the teams to win this match, but I see at least 2.5 goals, at least three goals in this match with both teams contributing on the score sheet.

Flash:

Where was your minus 140 earlier? You gave us a minus 140. What game was that?

Alex:

Frankfurt Mainz. Frankfurt Mainz.

Flash:

Okay. So we’ve got Frankfurt Mainz. Would we be interested in going with a parlay of Frankfurt Mainz at minus 140 Stuttgart Leverkusen minus 135 both being over two and a half?

Alex:

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Flash:

Kev?

Kev:

Yeah that makes sense. I think certainly you’d think there’d be goals in this one. You just don’t know what Leverkusen you’re going to get for the very reasons you’ve mentioned. I mean it doesn’t make any sense to prioritize this game over the Europa league. That’s an enormous opportunity that Leverkusen don’t often get. To get the semi-finals of a European competition is enormous. They should prioritize that and so I would expect some rotation and Stuttgart are probably in a place to take advantage of that. The one that actually jumps out to me, even though I’m not big fan of Stuttgart as a team in general-

Flash:

Score twice.

Kev:

… is the score twice at plus 120. I think that for me is the one because the crowd will be a big part of this. I think Leverkusen are going to turn it in a little bit. I might be wrong about that. They might prove me wrong in that regard, but just do think-

Flash:

There’s no evidence. There’s no evidence to prove you wrong.

Kev:

No, I just think Xabi Alonso’s going to change it. I think he’s going to rotate. It makes no sense not to rotate. I mean unless they get absolutely smashed tonight, which I’m not sure they will, I think that’ll be fairly close to that Roma Leverkusen and games. So you’ll have every reason to change it. And so that plus 120 looks good to me for Stuttgart to get a couple of goals.

Flash:

Just an added little snippet for those that are live, and this is a bit of a reward if we get it right, I’ve bet Roma and a plus 125. I thought on the money night, I thought it was too big. But just because of spite because Leverkusen let me down so badly at home last week, I’m hoping that they-

Alex:

Why are not talking about everyone because [inaudible 00:42:40] went with the Leverkusen plus half a goal. Well plus the quarter of a goal.

Flash:

Well they can go and watch the Europa League show and then we’ll see who’s winning after that.

Alex:

Oh, okay.

Flash:

But Stuttgart over one and a half goals at plus 120. You can’t guarantee they’re going to win the game if they score twice because that’s what Leverkusen are all about. But I cannot trust Leverkusen to put it in, especially if things go a little bit south in Rome. Then I think that they will rest them and put all their eggs in there in that basket for next week. So the value is definitely with the home side. I think plus 145 as well. So enjoy.

Now Mitch is saying that the over two and a half goals in the game in the parlay with the Frankfurt Mainz play 210, plus two 10. Okay, let’s have a little look at the officials. I’m glad you’ve said that Ibrahim, we’re going to mention that in the Q and A because I’ve got plenty to talk about on that game but I couldn’t find a bet. Over two and half minus 135 for Alex, for myself, and for Kev. We both agree that Stuttgart score twice around the plus 120 is probably the way to go as well. And then obviously, Alex is only looking for one from them work dodgers of Leverkusen. And I’m not bitter about them letting me down last week. I will get over it soon, maybe around October, November.

And by the way, remember I did choose Leverkusen to be the side outside of Bayern this year, so I’m not bitter about that neither. Oh and I did pick Schick to score loads of goals this year and I’m not bitter about that. Honest to God, if any team wants to boot me any harder, it’s Leverkusen. Honest. Because I love the way they play and then they change them. Oh listen, I’ve got to get over it and I’ve just got to let it go.

Alex:

This is what will happen also when you will fade them because you faded them today against Roma. So again, they will play against you.

Flash:

Why would you say such things? That’s so mean. That’s horrible.

Alex:

Because they have-

Flash:

You’re a sick man.

Alex:

… to go all the way.

Flash:

You’re a very sick man Alex. Okay and I don’t want you ringing me up afterwards with a Leverkusen shirt on neither. Okay, time for your Q and A and I’m liking already that Ibrahim’s, so I want that question up straight after I’ve asked you to subscribe and ring the bell. Means that that I will then notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. If you like your odds, type in betustv.com/odds. And if you don’t want a $50 free bet then it’s betustv.com/50. Now that first one, what’s your prediction? Wolfsburg versus Hoffenheim, is there any reason that that O is so big Ibrahim or is that just your sausage fingers? Kev, Wolfsburg Hoffenheim, I just saw goals and I’m not trusting that side after the performance they put in away at Dortmund last week. They’re entitled to be scarred.

Kev:

Yeah. Yeah. Don’t know because that’s why I didn’t pick it because I look at that game, anything could happen.

Flash:

That’s true.

Kev:

Because Hoffenheim are playing much better than they were. Wolfsburg can be a bit hit and miss at home. Sometimes they’re brilliant like they were against Mainz, sometimes not so goods. Still not sure that Nico Kovac entirely knows what his best team is and I think that’s just because he does have quite a few different options. I think he’s done a really good job in general, Nico Kovac with Wolfsburg, but yeah, horrible game to pick. I think if you had to go for anything, BTTS mainly as part of a parlay or something like that. But I’m not mega enthused about that game, to be honest.

Flash:

Alex, do you trust Wolfsburg at home? It looks like goals, doesn’t it? Hoffenheim, they basically have got to put in a performance and they have been one of them sides that you think you got them and you haven’t and go against them and you wish you hadn’t.

Alex:

Have to look at goals but minus 180 for over 2.5 goals, minus 130 for over three goals. So you’re looking at an Alex classic, even that at minus 130 or something like that, it’s a bit crazy to play that. I think that Wolfsburg are a good team, right? Both teams are playing for something. Wolfsburg is still playing for that [inaudible 00:46:54] league spot. Hoffenheim will be desperate for the three points who almost mathematically will put them in a safe position. I think that this will be an entertaining game. I think that Wolfsburg played bad against Dortmund because Dortmund made them play bad last week.

Flash:

Shock.

Alex:

Shock. Yeah, I think that goals is the way to go in a parlay, of course.

Flash:

Okay. Just this is a really, really quick one because I’m losing the will to live here. Okay. Mitch is saying Kev, are you going to scream Lukebakio’s name tomorrow anytime scorer at plus 300?

Kev:

I think there’s a decent chance, especially if they get a penalty because he’s been flawless from the spot they see. I think he’s really stepped up for them. He’s got 11 goals, few assists, maybe one or one or two assists. The 11 goals, a lot of those from the spot. But I do think he’s been a threat. I think they’ve got a chance to score in a couple in Cologne. I think the time is now. There is no other time to do it.

Flash:

Yeah, exactly.

Kev:

And I think if you look at the next two games Koln away, Bochum at home, Wolfsburg away on the final day. I think that’s okay. So I think the run-ins there for them, they’ve just got to find the performances to go with it.

Flash:

Yeah, I was just about to embarrass myself as well.

Alex:

I was now wondering when it was the last time then when a tops quarter won this award with 16 goals in a Bundesliga season like Fullkrug has read now. I think it’s a little bit disappointing for a league like Bundesliga. I was expecting more from many, many other players. So if Sheik was fully fit all season long, I think that he would have a good amount of goals.

Kev:

I quite like it. I quite like it. I don’t mind that because I think what it does show you is that we’re getting goals from a lot of different players.

Alex:

Balance. Yeah.

Kev:

I think we’re showing that teams aren’t overly reliant on one particular player. I think even if you look at Werder, obviously if you don’t have the 16 goals from Fullkrug, that makes a big difference. But Ducksch’s in double figures. Kolo Muani’s done brilliantly for Frankfurt, but they’ve had a few other goal scorers as well. I think Dortmund, they share the goals around, so I quite like it. I’ve got no problem with that, that you’ve got lots of players in the league who are scoring decent amounts of goals.

Flash:

Yeah, it’s been an emerging season. It’s been an emerging when season for so many.

Alex:

But when it was the last time when a top scorer ended with less than 20 goals in a Bundesliga season?

Kev:

Yeah, it would’ve been a while. Would’ve been a while.

Flash:

Yeah, because Lewandowski is 30 before you start.

Kev:

Yeah. Exactly.

Flash:

He’s had the last seven. Exactly. Probably the last time is when Gladbach beat Dortmund in 2014 and may lightning strike twice in them nine years. Okay, let’s have a little look at the best bet. Go on Alex. You can keep talking.

Alex:

And Mitch is right if Nkunku was fit for the entire season-

Kev:

Yeah, he got 20.

Alex:

Yeah.

Flash:

Oh yeah. But remember what I told you last year about Silva. I told you he weren’t worth it. Schalke plus two and half at minus 105 for Kev. Frankfurt Mainz, Kolo Muani anytime scorer plus 150. And Adeyemi to score for Dortmund, a consolation goal for Dortmund at plus 240.

Alex has gone for Frankfurt, Mainz over two and half at minus 140. Stuttgart Leverkusen over two and half at minus 135 and that parlay them two together is at plus 220. Union Berlin Frieburg just both teams to score at plus 100. The draw is at plus 225 in that game and all three of us believe that it could well be nil nil or one one.

Here we go. Koln money line on a Friday night minus 115. Although the market’s been a little bit negative because it was minus 120. Gladbach plus two at minus 125. And just strictly on the numbers and the individual personalities on the Gladbach team, I’ve got to not let them run loose. So it’s Gladbach to beat Dortmund in Dortmund for the first time in nine years at plus 700.

Everyone in the chat, really appreciate your support, your knowledge. And also, we’d like you to press a thumbs up on the way out. Kev, have a great Friday night. Call Koln winning will be a very nice start for myself. Really looking forward to that Dortmund Leverkusen game, Alex. Sorry, not Leverkusen. See, I’m possessed. I’m being possessed by Leverkusen. The Leverkusen lose on the Thursday and then Gladbach win at the weekend and I don’t want to hear any texts, any voice messages. Okay, we’ll talk next week.

Alex:

You will.

Flash:

Okay?

Alex:

You will.

Flash:

I definitely will. Okay Kev, have a great weekend and brilliant, keep up that great record that you’ve got. Alex, try and improve yours. And from everyone at BetUS, you take care.

 

BetUS Sportsbook & Casino
Average rating:  
 0 reviews

Show More

Related Tags

HLTV BLAST.tv