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Bundesliga Picks Matchday 32 | Bundesliga Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

Matchday 32

Flash:

Welcome to the BetUS Soccer Channel, I’m Flash. It’s Bundesliga show and it’s matchday 32. Not long to go now, just four more games. We know who the champions are, but the Champions League places, they’re very much up for grabs. We’ve got teams faltering final hurdles. We’ve got teams who have got eyes on other prizes. Before we go right into it, we’ve got seven games for you, by the way, so sit tight. There’ll be plenty of value pushed your way.

Flash:

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Flash:

Just because soccer ends in a few weeks time, don’t worry, the summer is going to be full of golf majors, tennis Grand Slams, the Triple Crown on the turf. It’s going to be absolutely brilliant. Obviously, apart from that, we’ve also got the MLB and before you know it, we’ll be back with the football season and that is NFL by the way. And if you are on social media, then please subscribe to @BetUSSoccer. You’ll get late updates, you’ll get late Soccer picks and also there’ll be some competitions in there for you as well.

Flash:

Charged, we’ve given you all the winners after a great week last week. So pat yourselves on the back lads, is Kevin Hatchard, who’s the voice of European soccer and Alex Campean, who’s the owner of the Last Minute Cash, the Last Minute Goals. And you could be 2-0 with three minutes to go looking for an away win and he’ll find a way, he’ll find a way. Kev, nice of you to bounce back to form last week.

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah, it was a good week in the end. It’s been quite a kind season. We’ve been fortunate that we’ve had a couple of teams like Greuther Fürth who were appalling early on and we made the most of that. But it’s been a really interesting season in terms of… If you look at all the way through, the title race just got sorted out, we know that, but the battle for the top four is not sorted, battle for the top six isn’t sorted, relegation battle’s still got a long way to go. Greuther Fürth are the only team that are definitely down. So even though we’ve had a good season in terms of being able to predict what might happen, if you actually look at the table itself, it’s been quite unpredictable.

Flash:

Yeah, it has. And then the other one was goals. We expect Bundesliga to be shipping goals right, left and center. As soon as you start going for goals, if it’s not the normal protagonist, what a good word by the way, then it goes under. So anyway, listen, get yourselves into the chat. Make sure that you give your liens. If you’ve got any bankers, any disagreements, you will get a chance to ask questions at the end, prior to the best bets. Alex also, we’ve had two German sides involved in the Europa League and they did okay.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, bless you, Flash.

Flash:

Bless me, bless me.

Alex Campean:

We might see a German final. Why not? Eintracht perform really good way away at West Ham. As you said, the pressure was on West Ham and you could feel that on the pitch. They gave a lot of spaces to Eintracht and Eintracht is a team that doesn’t need a lot of spaces to score against you.

Alex Campean:

Leipzig underperformed. I was expecting more from in Nkunku. He missed two sitters. He could have scored and killed the tie from the first leg. This is an historical matchday in Bundesliga. Number 2000 from the-

Flash:

[inaudible 00:03:40].

Alex Campean:

… beginning of the Bundesliga. Yeah. This matchday 32 is the 2000 matchday in the history of the Bundesliga. So yeah, we are here for this historical moment. And we talked about goals in Bundesliga. I have here a nice record. The record number of goals across the Bundesliga match happened in ’84 with an average of six goals per game, an average of six goals per game in Bundesliga, and a lot of other records. So if you want to check the Bundesliga site and of the official site, they have all the records that we’ve seen across the 2000 matchdays of this amazing, amazing league.

Flash:

Okay. Well, let’s have a little look. You talk about records from the Bundesliga. Let’s talk about the records from you boys in the Bundesliga. Flash here. Minus six [inaudible 00:04:40] but I had a good week last week. It came back down. I’m going to get parity. The total, what? 15.77. Kev, 14.9. Got to be over the moon with that. You have been milking it, and you’ve been quite diversified in your picks as well. Alex, all the freeze, which is always nice. So listen, 15.77, just the 4.23 to go this week to get over 20 units. So let’s go. Ryan says, “Come on. It’s Bundesliga. You have to say [foreign language 00:05:08].” Is that right? Kev.

Alex Campean:

[foreign language 00:05:11].

Flash:

[foreign language 00:05:14], not [foreign language 00:05:14]?

Kevin Hatchard:

No.

Alex Campean:

I don’t know.

Kevin Hatchard:

The [foreign language 00:05:17]. It’s if you sneeze. It’s the German version of bless you.

Flash:

Oh, I was a bit late. Oh, okay. Okay. So basically instead of saying bless you or god bless you, it’s [foreign language 00:05:27].

Kevin Hatchard:

[foreign language 00:05:27].

Flash:

Oh, okay. Thank you very much. We learn something new every day. Not everything is useful as that, Ryan, but your great fun part is you, right? Okay.

Flash:

Q&A will be just prior to the best bets. So get yourselves in the chat. We are ready to rock and roll. Let’s kick off with the first game. It’s the Friday night game, so that means that Kev will be there with the cans on his ears.

Flash:

It’s Union Berlin versus Fürth. It’s Berlin at -390. Fürth, massive +1300. They are fighting for their lives, but their lives have not got any energy in them. So draw at +475. The under or overs is 2.5. The over being well juice at -140. Kev, surely this is one of them games where you’ve got to be very selective in the way you go, but it’s got to be revolving around Union Berlin.

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah. Fürth have got a terrible away record. We know that. They’ve only taken three points away from home all season, although two of those were in the last two away games. They drew 0-0 at Hoffenheim, drew 0-0 at Eintracht Frankfurt. But I can’t really see them causing Union too many problems tonight. Union have hit form at the right time.

Kevin Hatchard:

Three weeks ago, we thought they were running out steam, but they managed to put together a winning streak of four. They [inaudible 00:06:43] RB Leipzig last weekend in the league. Played very, very well in doing so. Got a couple of late goals to turn that one around. And there was a bit of payback really, because they’d actually played really well in the cup against Leipzig just a few days earlier and didn’t get the rewards for that, but they managed to get the three points for the league.

Kevin Hatchard:

So they’re in the top six, which if you’d offered that to them at the start of the season, they would’ve gleefully accepted it. They’ve been excellent at home. They’ve only lost twice all season at home. I think Union will win it, but I have actually looked for different markets to get us some decent value in this one because Union it shows you how well they’re doing and how bad Fürth are on the road that Union -390 to pick up the win.

Flash:

Yeah, crazy. Crazy. And the other thing is it’s first winning Bundesliga this season was actually at home to Berlin. Alex, do we expect Fürth to score and contribute because if they score, we’re going over two and a half here at -140 and then there’s your first parlay piece.

Alex Campean:

Yeah. They picked up two points in the last two away games, but without finding the back of the net. And we know that at home, Union are one of the toughest team to score against. They just considered 14 goals all season long at home. So I think that we’re talking about two different objectives here. Union Berlin, full of confidence after that Leipzig win, which was a revenge from the [inaudible 00:08:11], a defeat exactly three days before they played in the league. Four wins in a row, fighting for the Champions League spot because let’s not forget, Leipzig are playing Gladbach on the road and they have European commitments. Bayer Leverkusen are playing Eintracht. Freiburg are playing on the road against the Hoffenheim. So why not? This is a perfect opportunity for Freiburg to cement their European spot and why not climb the standings here? I see that this is one-way ticket. It’ll be a clear win for Union Berlin. I think that they can easily cover the -1 and have spread. I don’t see greater for scoring here, again. This should be an easy win from on Berlin.

Flash:

Kev, are you expecting three goals in the game?

Kevin Hatchard:

Not necessarily. I think Fürth are awkwards and I think they’ve learnt that under their coach, Stefan Leitl, who’s actually leaving the club. He’s announced he’s leaving Fürth at the end of the season.

Alex Campean:

Poor guy.

Kevin Hatchard:

But he has done a super job really in the sense that they were always going to go down. It was never about that. They were always going to get relegated with the players at him disposal. But in the second half of the season, they’ve actually competed really well. And so actually, he’s given them some pride back. I think it’s painful to get relegated, but I think they’ve done okay.

Kevin Hatchard:

But I think this could be a grind for Union. I think they’ll get there. I think they’ll take three points. I don’t think there’s any doubt about that, but it wouldn’t surprise me if it was something like 2-0, something like that. I think it’ll be fairly awkward for them to eventually get three points.

Flash:

What’s your official pick then, because obviously this is… Obviously, we are not going to be talking about this game, especially on a Friday night if we haven’t got an official pick. So what is it?

Kevin Hatchard:

So it’s all about Taiwo Awoniyi because he’s a guy that scored in his last four home games. He’s been excellent. He’s got nine of his 13 Bundesliga goals have been at home. And there was a spell when they were struggling just after Max Kruse had left and he was struggling. And I think playing at the African Cup of Nations had taken a bit out of him and he just looked a bit jaded after a long season. Last few weeks has been excellent. Hold up play, the strength, the pace. Still a bit rough around the edges in terms of being a finisher but I think it will cause for all kinds of problems. So I’m going to back him to score.

Alex Campean:

Next season, it’ll be interesting with Taiwo. Next season, I think that he should be there at the top five top scorers in the league if-

Kevin Hatchard:

[inaudible 00:10:59].

Alex Campean:

… he keeps improving.

Flash:

Yeah that’s true. Yeah.

Alex Campean:

If he’s there and if he keeps improving, because [crosstalk 00:11:04]-

Kevin Hatchard:

I think there’s a good chance he’ll go to the Premier League. There are three-

Alex Campean:

Premier League?

Kevin Hatchard:

… or four clubs. Yeah. There are three or four clubs who are very interested.

Flash:

Big clubs, yeah?

Kevin Hatchard:

They can bring him in. No the-

Alex Campean:

[inaudible 00:11:15] Brentford…

Flash:

Southampton?

Kevin Hatchard:

Southampton. West Ham, I believe have looked at him. Newcastle are considering him. There’s a few clubs that are looking at him. And I think he’ll do very well in the Premier League. I think he still needs a bit of coaching, still needs a bit of development, but he’s got the strength, he’s got all the tools he would need to do well in the Premier League. So he may be at Union next season, but I wouldn’t back that with any certainty.

Alex Campean:

Do you reno it’ll be a great transfer window in the summer for the entire European and also in the Bundesliga? I think that we’ll see major changes at each club, right?

Kevin Hatchard:

I think so. I still think that the pandemics had a big impact on a lot of clubs, especially in Germany. So I think they’ll be careful spending.

Flash:

Kevin and also not a lot of people do their business prior to a World Cup. Normally they wait until like… So I think in January [crosstalk 00:12:12]-

Alex Campean:

It’s different this time. It’s different this time.

Kevin Hatchard:

That’s true, but I do think it’s different. I know you’ve got that World Cup in obviously in December, but I do think there’ll be a lot players actually looking to move because if they’re in a situation, I mean that doesn’t apply to Awoniyi, but if you’ve got players who are not playing, they’ll be desperate to move, to make sure that they are playing by the time the World Cup comes around. So you know how this works.

Flash:

Yeah, exactly. You use the World Cup as a showcase and a proper window. How many times, there’ll be at least three players in this world cup that none of us would’ve even battered an eyelid and it’ll be the hottest thing that comes out of it and all of a sudden you’ll get a move, and we’ll not see him again. And Costa Rica’s Joel Campbell was one of them. Everyone thought, “Oh my God, he is going to be the next big thing.” No he’s playing in Mexico somewhere.

Flash:

Anyway, listen-

Kevin Hatchard:

[crosstalk 00:12:59] big club.

Flash:

… it’s been too long on this Friday game because it’s a nothing game and we’ve only got anytime goal score, say only it’s probably another winner. Awoniyi is to score at +115. Let’s kick on then because we’ve got seven games and here comes game number two, which I found really tough. So I’m interested to see. In fact, I’m going to look before I even see who actually got involved in this game. Okay. Augsburg versus Köln. Augsburg at +185, Köln, massive +150. The way to Köln have been played in the draw is at +240. Under/over is two and a half.

Flash:

Alex, Augsburg, they’re no pushover at home. Köln, yet they’ve had a few good performances on the road, but normally you back them with a little bit more confidence when they’re the hosts.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, absolutely. And I thought that you will say that Augsburg decent at home, FC Köln struggling on the road this season, but I’m going with a hype here. I’m going with the team that is fighting for the European spots, Köln, that is sitting seventh right now, just one point behind Union Berlin. Three wins in a row. Massive wins, crucial wins for their, not objective, because I don’t think that FC Köln at the beginning of the season had as an objective to qualify in the Conference League. But here there right now with the free games to got till the end of the season fighting for the European positions.

Alex Campean:

And on the other side, yes we have Augsburg that are coming after that win. I think that it was important for them to beat the Bochum because right now, there are seven points above the drop zone. And I think that they are without stress. I don’t think that they will… Probably, they will play. I think that they will not enter in the match and say, “Okay, let’s not risk anything.” No, they will play. But I’m going with the confidence that FC Köln has in them right now and the fact that they’re playing for the European position. And I’m not going crazy. Don’t think that I’m going with FC Köln to win this match. They might. I think that they will, but I’m I’m going with Draw No Bet at -120.

Flash:

Yeah. Let’s move now to -125. So there is a bit of support behind your selection. Okay, do we see Köln scoring twice, because it’s +125, I score twice, but maybe Augsburg at home. I mean the max [inaudible 00:15:42] is going to be is 2-1. So I’m surprised that the over two and half is -120

Kevin Hatchard:

Feels like a bit of a trap to me, this whole thing, to be honest, Flash.

Alex Campean:

I knew.

Kevin Hatchard:

I understand what Alex is saying.

Flash:

Yeah. Why are you getting involved in traps? Alex, why are you getting involved in traps?

Alex Campean:

I love to getting involved in traps. Come on, get on [inaudible 00:16:01]-

Flash:

Not trams, traps.

Alex Campean:

Traps, traps.

Kevin Hatchard:

I get it. I do get it. Köln, they on good form, they’ve got the motivation. Augsburg are fine, but they’re quite dangerous, Augsburg and when they get at the fans behind them, they’ve actually got some decent attacking weapons. And I think André Hahn has had a much more consistent and impressive season than people expected. I just think that there’s something there. So I like Köln a lot. I’ve backed them a lot this season, but all the pressures on them and this just feels a little bit trappy to me.

Flash:

Okay. In the chat, [Harry Docket 00:16:38], he says, “I’ve met an Augsburg player in Reese, Oxford.” Stop stalking the players, Harry. Let them get on with their job. I know what you like hiding behind bins and things like that. Let’s have a little look at the official pick because obviously this one is going to go to the man you want. Okay, pick them, maybe you going to get a late minute. I’m not sure whether this is under or over, home win, away win, draw, obviously.

Alex Campean:

I think that this is an over match. I think that over 2.5 goals. I don’t remember the price on that, but I think that we should see goals. And I think that-

Flash:

-120 over. -120.

Alex Campean:

-120. Yeah. Think that it’s a very good set of odds, also for the [inaudible 00:17:17].

Flash:

Okay. Well it’s FC Köln is Draw No Bet at -125 and it is moving against you because it was at -120. Now game number three, we could be here a while. I think we’ve all got opinions here. I’m not sure that we are all or I think we’re all in agreement, but we’ve found different ways to earn some money at Dortmund versus Bochum. Dortmund -28. Dortmund have to give up a two goal lead. -105, minus one and half. Bochum on the road, +750 and they’re getting one and a half. So if you think that Bochum only get beat by one, you’re going to get minus -115. It’s 430, +430 on the draw. Under or over three and a half. Dortmund plus money to score free. Kev.

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah. This is awkward in that regard, I guess, because Bochum are a team that can dig in at times, and this is derby, we shouldn’t forget that. This is a raw derby. It’s the closest we’ll get to a raw derby with Schalke in the second tier. And Bochum played really well in the reverse fixture. So Thomas Rice isn’t going to let them turn up to Signal Iduna Park and fold. I do think Dortmund are clearly the better team? They could play without pressure. I thought they were okay in the Classica. I thought they had some nice moments, but again, they’re just too defensively vulnerable. You look at the goal that Jamal Musiala scored to wrap up the game, they’re all over the place defensively there. So it doesn’t seem to matter what-

Alex Campean:

And it is normal.

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah. It doesn’t seem to matter what the personnel is. Obviously, that makes a big change. [inaudible 00:18:51] being out was a big problem as well. But I do see Dortmund winning this. I could see them winning it by a couple of goals. I don’t think it’s going to be 5-0, 6-0 or anything ridiculous like that. Bochum have got into a bit of a tailspin recently, though. It wasn’t that long ago that we were talking about them being safe, but the one of those teams it’s just because teams like Augsburg and Hertha started to pick up results, just looking over their shoulders a bit more insistently than they were.

Flash:

I like them to score three goals. I’ve got this 3-0, 3-1. Is that the type of game you’re expecting, Kev?

Kevin Hatchard:

Oh, I thought you were asking Alex. Yeah, maybe. I mean, I can certainly see something like a 2-0. I can definitely see something like that, and maybe Dortmund dizz off a little bit. It could be three. I don’t think that’s a bad bet, over two and a half team total at +105 for Dortmund. I don’t think that’s necessarily a bad bet. The home record’s pretty good, if they’re not playing the top teams. When they’ve played Leverkusen and Leipzig, they’ve been wiped the floor with. But against the lower rank teams, they tend to do pretty well.

Flash:

Okay. Alex, Dortmund. You’re a Dortmund fan. Are they going to put on a show? And remember, yes, this is a derby, hopefully, and it looks like it could be a possibility that Schalke will come to town next year as well, sitting second in Bundesliga 2.

Alex Campean:

I think that the best point from all the discussion is what Kev said. There is no pressure on Dortmund anymore right now and I think that they will deliver at home. Most of the time at home, this season against the lower ranked teams, they always covered, they always score the three, four, five, six goals. So I don’t think that we should worry about Dortmund getting three here, despite having many, many injury issues, as we all know. And the latest news from the Dortmund on the dressing room is the fact that Julian Brandt will live at the end of the season, which is a huge blow, in my opinion. I don’t understand what they’re thinking of.

Flash:

Where’s he going, Alex?

Alex Campean:

He wants to stay, but Dortmund doesn’t want to extend his contract.

Flash:

He’s been awful. He’s been billy average the two years.

Alex Campean:

Come on. The entire team had ups and downs this season. [crosstalk 00:21:20].

Flash:

Listen, he ain’t enough. He ain’t done enough. He’s not a Champions League player.

Alex Campean:

If you ask me, even Haaland had a lot of downs this season. He is not the same Haaland that we used to see him last year. So yeah, I don’t know, Julian Brandt, I think that he’s an important member of Dortmund squad right now. He only needs some improving, but not a lot. I think that he will have a good career. I don’t think that he’s the Premier League type of guy. Many people are saying that he will move in a Premier League team, but I don’t think that the premier league suits him. He’s not that strong for a Premier League team, let’s put it this way.

Alex Campean:

But I think that Dortmund coming back for this match, Bochum are safe. That was their main objective, to be safe, to win on their spot for the next season. Eight points above the drop zone with three rounds to go. They just need one point if the other teams will win at all, behind them. They fail to the last free matches. Signal Iduna Park is not the right place to visit for Bochum given the fact that they have nothing to lose. Dortmund will try to give their fans something to cheer for after the defeat in the Classica. So yeah, I think that Dortmund should easily cover here.

Flash:

Okay. Well, we’ve got plenty in the chat as well to go in. First off over one and a half goals. They see goals in this game, Kevin, and I understand that you are going to have the cans on for this one, so it’s game to look forward to. Erling Haaland, anytime gold scorer. I suppose that will probably be odds on. A lot of people are agreeing though that Brandt has not been good enough nor has Hazard. If they’re going to actually do something in Europe, then they’re actually going to challenge Bayern, they need to get solid citizens that you know you’re going to get what you’re going to get. And at the moment they’ve got too many of that are just okay, because they’re above average in Bundesliga, but there again, you’ve got six or seven teams that are above average and the rest can just fight for the scraps.

Flash:

Okay. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because we’ve all got one. It’s Dortmund -1.5 at -105. So we see a two goal margin for both the experts for me. It’s Dortmund score free at +105. I just got lured in there by the plus money. I think Dortmund will score three. And Bochum, I don’t know what I’m getting, but I’m just going to go with the home side.

Flash:

Let’s move on because we’ve gone… And we’re going to go and have a little look at the champions. We could have said that in August and been pretty, pretty confident. So in the next game, game number four of [inaudible 00:24:04] Mainz versus Bayern. Mainz, +450. Why are they not plus +750? Bayern, -190. Why are they not -320? Bayern giving up one -120 has got to be the biggest free hit in fact, and that’s moved by the way. That -1 at -120, I cannot see why anyone would not jump on that, because that is the best free here and when you get it 70 cents better off. Draw is at +370. Under/over three and a half.

Flash:

Alex, I take you to the bottom right hand corner. Why am I getting +130 for Bayern over two and a half when this is the only thing that matters?

Alex Campean:

First, you were asking yourself why Mainz are at +450 and not at +600 or +700 and why Bayern are -190. Because they want the title. They are just going to entertain the crowd, playing the game-

Flash:

Meaning goals, meaning goals, entertainment.

Alex Campean:

Meaning goals, exactly, meaning goals. I think that the pressure is of their shoulders. I don’t know what is happening in the dressing room? There are lots of issues, internal issues there with Lewandowski moving him left and right, Thomas Muller left and right, and so on. Many players to sign the extension of the contractor to leave the club. This is what I don’t like. And so normally, if everything was okay after the winning of the title and the team was, I don’t know, very unite, you would easily go with over 2.5 [inaudible 00:25:45] total at +130.

Alex Campean:

But now I don’t know what to say. Mainz have no chance to play in Europe. When these two sides meet, there are goals on the cards. So yeah, probably goals is the way to go. Probably even over 3.5, probably the Alex classic kids on the cars here, like a 3-1 type of game, 3-2 type of game for to Dortmund. Because also Mainz will go for them. And we know that there will be many gaps at the back for Bayern after playing so open in this match, because this is what I’m expecting them. To play very open, not push to destroy their opponents, not… I don’t know. Anyway, they’re not very good at the back this season. So yeah, over 3.5 is in the match. Over 3.5 in the match +105. It might be a good bet.

Flash:

Kev, what about this -1 at minus -120 for Bayern? No? You’re shaking your head.

Kevin Hatchard:

It’s not for me.

Flash:

Why am I seeing these trappy prices?

Kevin Hatchard:

No, it’s not for me. Mainz are strong at home. They’ve got one of the best home records in the league. This is the kind of game where they really enjoy ,generally. They won this last season. They’ve had some good results against the big hitters. The beat Leverkusen, they’ll get really good reaction from their fans, I think. They’ve got no pressure. So I think they know they’re not going to qualify for Europe. I think they need a reaction as well after they got smacked 5-0 by Wolfsburg last week. Now that was a weird game because they had a man sense off early on, gave away a penalty early on. They got ripped apart in the first half. So I think Bo Svensson is not going to allow them to not respond. They’ll have worked incredibly hard this week. This is an opportunity for them to show what they can do.

Kevin Hatchard:

I think that guys like Karim Onisiwo, Jonathan Burkardt, the pace they’ve got in attack can get in behind Bayern and maybe score a goal. And Burkardt seems to come alive in this game, actually. He scored against buying on numerous occasions. So I wouldn’t be very confident that Bayern would win it by multiple goals. And to be honest, I wouldn’t be mega confident the Bayern would win it at all because I think there’ll be a drop in intensity. They’ve just celebrated the title. I think Mainz will have the crowd behind them. It’s not a game I would go near, personally.

Alex Campean:

It’s very important to note that exactly this game, Mainz vs Bayern Munich last year, it was played on round 31st, so with three rounds to go till the end of the season, with Bayern already winners, already champions and they lost to one with Lewandowski scoring in the last minute, the so of the team. So, yeah.

Flash:

It’s tricky, isn’t it? It really is tricky. I’m just wondering if Nagelsmann is going to have something aimed at him if Bayern are not at it, because the ruthless efficiency, he’s building, he’s got to make sure, and we are talking about Bayern here against Mainz, and Mainz are not scraping other than the occasion. I’m the only one that’s got involved in this game, and that was a red flag to me as well, especially when I’m seeing -1. I’m normally like I sniff out these things, but when I see Bayern at plus money, they could get beat for 4-3, they could be a three all draw. But the one thing I’m thinking, with both these teams absolutely enjoying themselves, putting on a show, is I see goals. Lewandowski always wants to score, but so do all the other Bayern players and obviously Mainz are scoring at home as well. Now, [Mike Rose Burns 00:29:34] gone Mainz over one and a half is at +163. So Mainz to score twice is at +163. Lets have a little look-

Alex Campean:

Also Flash, Bayern Munich, 92 goal score this season.

Flash:

I know. They loved that 100 goals. I know they loved that a 100 goals, but they could just get six or seven in the last two games. I’ve got to go with the plus money because I just can’t pass it up, but I understand why you boys have sniffed out the old red flag. I understand that, totally, because every… You could have four bets in this game. If this was in mid-season, obviously the numbers wouldn’t be the same, but if they were, my God, we’d be biting not the hand, we’d be buying right up to the shoulder. So yeah, I’ve been lured in by the plus money.

Flash:

[Michael Mikate 00:30:19] says, “Sorry. I’m late boys.” Well, why you late? Stand at the back of the class and keep quiet. If you’ve go tot say, put your hand up.

Flash:

Let’s have a little look at the official pick. There it is, Bayern team total, over two and a half, +130. Can’t believe it. I’m taking it. As simple as that.

Flash:

Let’s move on to game number five, please. And here’s a team that have laid down. Hoffenheim versus Freiburg. It’s Hoffenheim at +145, Freiburg, massive plus 185. Draw No Bet Freiburg is at +105. The draw is a lively runner at +255 and the goal line is under over three. Can we guarantee that both are going to score? I’m not so sure to be honest. I want to come to you first so, Kev because Hoffenheim and Freiburg, Hoffenheim have laid down, but they’re dangerous. Freiburg, they need the points.

Kevin Hatchard:

Hoffenheim should be dangerous, but they’re not at the moment. It’s been a real collapse from them. I have to say I’m surprised. I thought they’d got it together under Sebastian Hoeneß. But I actually think that 3-0 defeat Hertha, which is one of the biggest shocks of the season so far, really smashed them psychologically and they never really recovered from that. And so they’ve really struggled. I did Freiburg’s game last week and they started really slowly. Gladbach back did what Gladbach are capable of and scored a couple of early goals, but Freiburg dug really deep. The fans did their part, came roaring back, led 3-2. Should have won the game, but then conceded a goal with virtually the last touch of the game. So that was a big blow. But Freiburg is still in this Champions League race, make no mistake about that. And if they win this game, they know that Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig don’t play until Monday, so they can apply serious pressure here. Freiburg have already won 4-1 at Hoffenheim in the cup this season. They won’t have any fears going to [inaudible 00:32:16]. So I have to say I’m a little surprised to see Hoffenheim shorter than Freiburg. Least it should be a picking for me if Freiburg aren’t slight favorites.

Flash:

What about Freiburg scoring twice at +120, Alex?

Alex Campean:

Yeah. Hoffenheim have been terrible at the back. And you were talking about Freiburg, I was so unlucky with the last minute goal coming against me last week with Freiburg considering that 3-3 to Gladbach. So instead of going 4-1, I went 3-2. And even Dortmund, they had a really good chance for them to score twice. So yeah, it is what it is, but Freiburg are the better side.

Alex Campean:

Hoffenheim took one point from Eintracht because Eintracht are neglecting the domestic league. Not because Hoffenheim were the better side or… They did not even deserve the one point against Eintracht. So you have to look at all these informations, because if you only look at the stats, of course you have your bet. But really Hoffenheim, as Kev said, after that defeat to Hertha, they are nowhere to be found. We are talking about great teams, great teams. Good teams in Bundesliga are playing against Bayern Munich and losing and after that, they’re going down like that. This is exactly what happened to Hoffenheim after the defeat to Hertha.

Alex Campean:

Freiburg very, very strong, but, I don’t know, something tells me that they will have a tougher match than they all suggest here. But yeah, I don’t think that they will lose. So I think that Kevin’s take is topnotch here.

Flash:

What is Kevin’s take? Let’s have a little look at the official pick. I think Freiburg score twice, by the way. That +120 is really sort of luring me in. Freiburg, Draw No Bet, +105. Just a quick on Kev, if Freiburg scored twice, they win the game or not?

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah, probably. But the thing about Hoffenheim is that they are capable when they spark of sparking into life and scoring a few goals. But the problem with them recently, actually, has been not taking their chances and just not clicking at all in attack. You think of that goal [inaudible 00:34:47] scored against Greuther Fürth the other week, they were awful. Really, really awful. The other thing as well, it’s not one of the traditional derby, but it is a derby. They’re not too far from each other, [inaudible 00:34:57] and Freiburg. So there’s an element of that too. And I could see Freiburg nicking a 1-0 win or something like that, or a maybe even being a scrappy 1-0 draw.

Kevin Hatchard:

So I looked at that. I did like it. I wouldn’t put anybody off backing Freiburg to score twice, but for me, I just looked at the match odds and thought they were wrong. And I think when we look at those and think they’re wrong, we look at how we can exploit that. And I think the way to do it is to back Freiburg with a bit of insurance.

Alex Campean:

I think that we’ll see also an entertaining match. I think that we’ll see the over here. The line is a little bit too high at three. This is why I’m not taking it. Normally, if it was a 2.5, I would gladly take it, but-

Flash:

But what about the Alex classic then? Because then that’ll negate the over three.

Alex Campean:

Yeah. I don’t think that Hoffenheim will leave it like that. We are here. Mathematically, they still have chances to qualify in the European cups. In terms of form, they are dreadful. But I still think that they will go down to fight. They will enter on the pitch all guns blazing. I think that we’ll see the Alex classic here.

Flash:

Okay. Yeah. I think you’ll get good value as well. Let’s move on to game number six, because this is a tricky one, because you’ve got Leverkusen versus Frankfurt. Leverkusen have kicked back into gear. Frankfurt got more than two eyes on their European exploits and they’re doing great as well, by the way and another deserved victory in East London during the week. But Leverkusen at -225, I think that’s a little bit disrespectful to Frankfurt if Frankfurt then come back and do something. Frankfurt +550. Under/over three with over being -140. I think if Frankfurt don’t turn up, then the under is at +120 and maybe 3-0, 2-1, Leverkusen, you’re only going to get a push. The draw, I think it’s out the window at +400 because if Frankfurt turn up and put up a fight or Leverkusen steam roll them. Alex, what’s it going to be? Frankfurt is going to look up the Europa League semifinal?

Alex Campean:

Yeah, absolutely. 1000%. Yeah. Resting players. It’s very, very important. Actually now that they won the first leg 2-1 is even important if they were losing the first leg, way more important. I don’t know, six or seven players on the bench. 1000% Leverkusen can’t afford to lose this game. Freiburg are just three points behind them, Leipzig are two points behind them. Three games to go, it’s very important for Leverkusen to take advantage of Eintracht European commitments. And we’ve seen Eintracht how they are neglecting totally this league. They want to put their hand on that trophy, the Europa League. And I think that the bookies are speaking about that. +130. Normally in normal days in Bundesliga in mid season, you wouldn’t see that. No way you would see that. Leverkusen, I said to you last week, I’m not worried about them trashing Greuther Fürth. And it was the first time this season that they considered first and they actually won the game and covered. Wow.

Flash:

Yeah. Against Greuther Fürth.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, I think that they found a way to play with the missing players out, with the injured players out. I think that they found their form. I think that it was very important to leap-frog RB Leipzig in third there. So it should be an easy win. I don’t know if they will destroy Eintracht, but I think that it should be an easy win. This is why I have a slight different approach here.

Flash:

Okay. Omar saying, “Frank for tired. I’m not…” The big thing is there, Omar, is are the tired players going to play? Kev, we understand there’s going to be massive rotations, but then that means there’s opportunity for players to come in to… And I always say this, that it’s like next man up. You’ve got an opportunity go in there, you are fresh. You’ve been watching on the sidelines. You want to get involved in the Europa League. And if somebody gets injured in the Europa League, you could find yourself realistically in the final when you’ve been sitting on the bench in the last six to eight weeks. So I thought this was a bit of a banana skin, you know?

Kevin Hatchard:

I think it could be. The only thing you’d say about that, and I agree with you that normally you’d have a situation where you’d think, well, actually these guys want to make their mark and give the coach digging the ribs. But actually they’ve done this already, which is when they went to Union in a game I did a couple of weeks ago, and they were appalling. They were really bad. And they were second best to everything in the first half. And then it was 2-0 at half time and the game was gone. So I think Alex is right in terms of the approach that he’s taking because I think what you might see is Leverkusen get this done and then both of them just accept that the game is over and they just sleepwalk their way to the end. So I don’t necessarily think it’ll be something like 5-0, but I can see Leverkusen winning it by a couple and probably getting it done fairly early.

Flash:

Yeah. And the -150, it’s just nothing. There’s nothing there because I mean, again, it could be 2-1-

Kevin Hatchard:

Too short. Too short.

Flash:

Yeah. It’s rude-

Kevin Hatchard:

Way too short.

Flash:

… to think that anyone wants to take that. So Alex, you are the only one that’s got a pick here, so what is the official pick? And when I see your pick, and it’ll spin over any second, Leverkusen half-time, full-time, you just got to better make sure that Frankfurt don’t do what they’ve been doing in the Europa League. I cannot believe that consistently, you know they’ve scored free goals in free matches inside the first five minutes. And it sets the tone. It’s unbelievable. I did the Europa League with Alex this week and I’m like, I’ve got to go both teams scoring over because Frankfurt are coming up the traps now. And all of a sudden, everything… You could have a great read on the game but as soon as that team goes 1-0 up, they sit back, they can pick you off and they dictate the play.

Flash:

Now I do believe that Leverkusen are going to win, but it’s just the numbers are not right. So probably this is the only way you can have Leverkusen to win, Alex, and get a decent number. Half-time, full-time at +120. Michael Mikate said, “Yes, I like that. That’s a nice pick.”

Flash:

Let’s go on to our final game. Little bit like two bulls clashing in a field this. Gladbach, big, strong, don’t know what you’re going to get against Leipzig who are so organized. But they underwhelmed, I would say midweek. I thought that they would really stamp their authority on the tide against the side who didn’t really put up much of a fire and yet it only ended 1-0 Leipzig at home to Rangers. Now they’ve got to come back after slipping up last week. They cannot slip up again this week. So it’s Gladbach back massive +325 and how they love to be the party poopers. Leipzig at -130. The draw’s at +315. Over or under three goals and the over at -105. Alex, are we looking at overs here, because Gladbach and Leipzig, they’re going to lock hones.

Alex Campean:

RB Leipzig are way too short on the moneyline to play them after the game against Rangers. Yeah, against Rangers, you could say that they had some problems on opening that defense up. Rangers, 11 men behind the ball or 10 men behind the ball, 11, including the goalkeeper. They dominated. They were in full control for the entire match there. As I said in, Nkunku missed some opportunities they could have well went 2-0, 3-0 up if it wasn’t for those missed opportunities. But I think that they will be affected by the midweek match. Let’s not forget that last week they played Union Berlin beating them in the cup. After that they lost Union Berlin in the league.

Alex Campean:

They can’t afford to drop points. That is another issue for them right now, with Freiburg just two points behind them. But as you said, Gladbach can score and mostly have the quality to score, not only can score. So instead of playing Leipzig on the moneyline, I think that this is the most… This is very risky. If you want to back Leipzig, don’t back them at this price. Check the goals market. The goals market-

Flash:

Yeah, you got to.

Alex Campean:

… I think that… Yeah. Check the goals market here because Gladbach are awful at the back, but they can score goals. RB Leipzig are affected by the European commitments. They’ll concede in my opinion, so goals all the way. Go with that.

Flash:

Kev, I’ve got Gladbach to score twice at +170. I’ve got Leipzig to score twice at -150. That’s like not even in the same sphere. Let me just give you this, Leipzig, semi final, the cup last week. Beat Berlin. It was a really, really tough game. Then they have to win at home against Union Berlin and they get beat. Then they’ve got a semi-final home to Rangers that they could have got a chance to go and put a show on and really make this a one-legged tie. They look mentally jaded, not physically. They look mentally jaded. And why I mean that is they’re taking two and three touches when a few weeks ago they did it in one. There’s not so much movement off the ball. Do you know what I mean? It’s almost like they’re trying to be too careful. It’s almost like the occasions now are just starting to get to them.

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah, I think it’s more that. I think actually, I don’t think it’s necessarily mental tiredness. I think it’s a [inaudible 00:45:11]. I mean, let’s not forget, this is a group of players that has been to cup finals, but it hasn’t been… It’s played a Champions League semi and it didn’t work out against Paris. They’re not used to playing semi-finals, they’re not used to playing in big European games. They’re getting used to it, but it’s still a young club. It’s still a group of players that largely is quite young still.

Kevin Hatchard:

But I actually look at this the other way and I get what you mean about the moneyline being a bit short. And the way I would do it personally, is to back Leipzig to win and over one and a half goals in the game or something like that, get that up towards evens or maybe above, because I think they will win this game. They’ve been to Leverkusen, they’ve won. They’ve been to Dortmund, they’ve won. They’ve been to Bayern, they’ve given them a hell of a game. Gladbach are nowhere near that quality, nowhere near. They’ve got nothing to play for. They’ve got numerous players who are looking at the exit door and I thought they look really gutless in that second half at Freiburg last week. And I think it just shows you what they’ve been all about this season, which is a lack of mental strength, the lack of organization. And I just think Leipzig are going to pick them off. So the way I would do it, I agree, I would never back a team on the moneyline at minus -130. It’s way too short to just [crosstalk 00:46:35]-

Flash:

Especially away from home, against a Gladbach side who can perform.

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah, but don’t. They almost always don’t. And I think I kind of moved away from that idea a while ago that they can perform, they just don’t. And look, they might do, but I can see Leipzig winning this. So I think if you’re going to go down that route, I agree with Alex about goals. I can see that, but I think if you’re going to go down that route, I’d I’d look to combine a Leipzig win with a goals bet. Maybe go Leipzig to win and over one and a half in the game, Leipzig to win over two and a half in the game, something like that. That’s the way I would do it.

Flash:

Wow. Okay. Lets have little look at the official pick though, because there is only one of us that’s gone for the official. He’s actually put his smart hand in his pockets. It’s both teams to scoring an over, known as the Alex classic. So over 2.5 goals at -110. Remember there’s Leipzig -150 to score twice. They’re telling you they expect Leipzig to score twice.

Flash:

Okay, before I put up the best bets, it’s time now for you to give me a little bit of Q&A. Steve Gregory. Okay. I’ll get back to that in a second when I’ve asked you to subscribe and get us closer to 5,000 subscribers. Also ring the bell so that we can notify you. You’ll never miss any content again. If you’re on Twitter, then make sure you follow @BetUSSoccer. Steve Gregory says, “Why have Bundesliga sites struggled breaking down deep blocks in European games, Bayern versus Villarreal, Leipzig versus Rangers, this season?” Kev?

Kevin Hatchard:

I think a lot of teams-

Flash:

[crosstalk 00:48:08] I’ll come to you.

Kevin Hatchard:

I think a lot of teams do struggle to break down a deep block. I think Villarreal is a really difficult one actually, because that was more to do with the fact that Villarreal are exceptional at what they do. They really are. And what they did against Bayern, which they didn’t do against Liverpool, and there are a lot of reasons for that, is offer a threat at the other end. And I thought Villarreal played it perfectly against Bayern.

Kevin Hatchard:

Leipzig I thought were fine. I think Leipzig were okay. I think they made some chances. Rangers have been really awkward. I think the most important thing was that we know Rangers have got a lot of injuries in attack. There was no [inaudible 00:48:48], there was no Alfredo Morelos. So you make sure you keep that clean sheet. You make sure you take a lead to Ibrox. They won’t be scared about Ibrox, there’re no people. It’s a great atmosphere, it’s a wonderful stadium, don’t get me wrong. They ain’t going to be scared going there. Look at the teams they’ve been to. And if you can go to Dortmund and wipe the floor with them, you can go to Rangers and win. So-

Alex Campean:

[crosstalk 00:49:08] play good. You’re going to a different-

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah. Completely. They went to Bergamo, they saw off at Atlanta. They went to Anoeta, beat Real Sociedad. They’re not going to be worried about that. So I think Leipzig are absolutely fine. I think sometimes it’s like that. When you’re a little bit nervous, it’s a big game, the opposition, haven’t got a huge desire to break forward and the well organized. I don’t think it’s a Bundesliga issue. I just think it’s a situation most teams face when they’re facing the low block.

Alex Campean:

It’s also probably because of that [inaudible 00:49:41] is right because Bundesliga teams all play on the front foot. But let’s not forget that also Manchester City had problems against Atlético Madrid on the [inaudible 00:49:50] to score against.

Flash:

It’s a respect thing. I think you got to look at it as a positive. It’s a respect thing. The teams are not going to come out and actually say, “Okay, you come and beat us,” because the German side, all of them, like even Bochum, they love to open you up when you over commit or you get lopsided. They have that pace, they have that vision to be able to break you out. So teams are not go against the German side and go, “Oh, let’s have an open game.” Are you mad? Brazil did that to the national side and ended up getting beat seven.

Alex Campean:

Yeah, exactly. And what Kevin was saying, I think that RB Leipzig will have an easier match at Ibrox then in the first leg.

Flash:

Yes I do too. I do. And in fact, have you got a price for that, Alex? Have we got a price for Leipzig yet?

Kevin Hatchard:

Probably enough. Domenico Tedesco talked about that last night, the Leipzig coach. He actually said, “I think we’ll have an easier attacking game-“

Alex Campean:

[inaudible 00:50:46].

Kevin Hatchard:

“… because they’ll have to come forward, chase the game.” So Domenico Tedesco recognized that last time.

Alex Campean:

[crosstalk 00:50:52].

Flash:

I’m taking it away.

Alex Campean:

Even in the first leg against Rangers, they had a lot of opportunities to score, a lot of missing opportunities. Only take a look at Nkunku, plus some shots from outside the box, plus… So they played good. You cannot say, okay, they underperformed or they were sloppy or they… No, no, no. They played okay. And they played smart, also. They were [crosstalk 00:51:18].

Flash:

They were sharp in the mind though. Alex, that’s the thing. Yes, good situations. But I agree, listen, let’s cut this out, right? -110 for Leipzig to beat Rangers next week, moneyline, Kev?

Kevin Hatchard:

Yeah. I think it’s a good bet.

Flash:

I do.

Alex Campean:

I think that Leipzig will score twice.

Kevin Hatchard:

[crosstalk 00:51:33] Rangers is going to have to come out.

Flash:

Yeah. I like it.

Kevin Hatchard:

I mean, look at the way Rangers struggle past Braga and Leipzig are different sphere to Braga entirely. So I think I can see Leipzig winning that game.

Flash:

Yeah. And also they’ll score twice.

Alex Campean:

Yes. Yes.

Flash:

Yeah. Team to over one and a half as well, so you could go Leipzig and over one and a half. Okay. The other quick one, just a real quick one, please. Alex, Stuttgart versus Wolfsburg. I can say that. I actually wrote down the Alex classic in this game, both team score and over, and I deleted it. I actually, that was my favorites picks and I deleted it because I can’t trust Wolfsburg on the road.

Alex Campean:

Probably is the way to go. Probably is the way to go.

Flash:

Okay. We’ll leave it. Okay. Let’s have a little look at all the official picks, please. And a good show today. Plenty info, plenty opinion. Kev, a [inaudible 00:52:27] to score at +115. Dortmund -1.5 at -105 and copy and past that for Alex. Köln, Draw No Bet at -125. Freiburg, Draw No Bet at -105. Boys are being a little bit pragmatic here. Leverkusen half-time full-time minus… Sorry. +120 is a good price if Frankfurt don’t turn up early. Gladbach, Leipzig both to score, and over two and a half goals at -110 for me. It’s Dortmund, team total at over two and a half at +105 and Bayern team total, over two and a half at +130.

Flash:

Okay. Everyone in the chat, please thumbs up on the way out, even though it looks like you’ve been quite busy with the thumbs up, I’m really quite pleased about that. About 70%, which is much, much higher than normal. Kev, have a great game tonight. I hope you’re calling your man scoring and you have a great game. We want three-

Kevin Hatchard:

[crosstalk 00:53:21].

Flash:

… goals from Dortmund. Alex?

Alex Campean:

Yeah. They’ve already scored. I just won one unit on the show. Yeah.

Flash:

Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. You what you do hear, if you listen closely enough, you do hear a little bit of a celebration and it’s-

Alex Campean:

Correct.

Flash:

But we don’t want 0-0. We want plenty action for you. Alex, have a great weekend. I’ll see you again on Tuesday for the Europa League show. I’m looking forward to that because both games are going to give us plenty of value, I believe. Okay. Everyone at BetUS appreciates everything you do. If you have not subscribed, get me closer to 5,000. May all your bets be winners. [inaudible 00:53:59].

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