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Bundesliga Picks Matchday 34 | Bundesliga odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

 

Flash:

Welcome to the BetUS Soccer Channel. I’m Flash. It’s Bundesliga show. It’s week 34. That means it’s the last week, and we still don’t know who’s champions. Bayern need to win. Dortmund need to win also. So again, it’s absolutely brilliant. Let’s just forget about the big boys and spare a thought for those that look like they’re going through the trap door, because there’s up to four, maybe five if some sort of mathematical nuts goes on. But first of all, we’re America’s favorite sportsbook, so I’d like you to subscribe and ring the bell. If you’d like your Soccer odds on your props, then type in betustv.com/odds. If you want a $50 free bet on the last game of the season, maybe you want to have it all on Mainz, betustv.com/50. We’re going to have the records. The chat is down to you.

Let’s make it a really, really big show today, because obviously we may have a new Bundesliga Champion that we’ve not seen in many, many a year. Also, thumbs up shows a bit of appreciation to my two absolute stars. First one, he’s just a star all-round, and that’s obviously the voice. And I see your head like flick up there, Kev, because you knew I was talking about you. You are star pupil this year, so give yourself a big pat on the back. And the other one who’s dressed in like mustardy color, I don’t even know what that shirt is but I’m sure he is going to let me know. It’s Alex classic tips. If you don’t know what an Alex classic is, it’s both teams to score and over two and a half goals. What does the V stand for, by the way, do we know?

Alex:

What is the what?

Flash:

  1. It’s a V. Is it a V? BV?

Alex:

BVB. Yes.

Flash:

Yeah. What is it, Borussia versus Borussia?

Alex:

What do you mean?

Flash:

Well, what does the V stand for? Do you know what I mean? You have LFC, it’s Liverpool Football Club. But BVB. W`hat does it stand for?

Alex:

[inaudible 00:02:55]

Flash:

Oh, okay. Okay. Hand over saw you Alex.

Kev:

I think it’s verein isn’t it? Team? I would have to check.

Alex:

I know that last time I was reading about this, two, three years ago. I know that it’s coming from [inaudible 00:03:13]. Clubs Official name for Bulge BV Borussia 09 e. V. Dortmund.

Kev:

Verein means team, basically

Alex:

The club.

Kev:

So it’s kind of Ball Sports club Borussia.

Flash:

I like that. I like that we start off with a bit of knowledge. Yeah, Vlad’s saying verein equals club. Alex, I’ll ask you again. You must be nervous because you didn’t ask me first time round. How are you feeling?

Alex:

I don’t want to say, it I don’t want to jinx it. I don’t want to say anything.

Flash:

I’m looking for jinxes all this show

Alex:

Really. I know. I hope that you’ll feed them again, I will be very happy. Because the last three, four times you fed them, they came out on top and

Flash:

No. Yeah, but I won a lot of money last week though, didn’t I? If you follow at BetUS TV after 10 minutes of the game, I actually steamed into Dortmund as big as I could go because it was just one way traffic and I just had to be patient.

Alex:

It wasn’t one way traffic but still you could see that the players are under pressure, that they are stressed. You could see all that. Just a lot of opportunities to score and nothing in the first, I don’t know, half. Everything came in the second half and I think that it’s all thanks to that red card from Augsburg in the first half, to be honest.

Flash:

Yes, a lot of Bayern fans saying that you’ve bought the refs.

Alex:

Ah, look at what Bayer did in the past, look at what happened to Bochum. If you remember Kev last week said okay, but there were some right decisions, wrong decisions throughout the season so if we balance it comes all comes to zero. So there is no question about Dortmund deserving the title the most of the season. It was a crazy season in terms of betting also because we had the World Cup. A lot of surprises there. Bayern Munich, the managerial things didn’t go as planned. They changed the coach in mid-season. It was in my opinion, and Kev reiterated that million times, that it was a bad, bad decision. I don’t know what is happening with them. But really I was very, very shocked to see them losing so bad against Leipzig. And they showed really poor in the second half. If anyone saw that second half against Leipzig, you could say that Bayern are not the team that we know Bayern in the second half of the season something happened with them.

So I think that Dortmund, who have just one defeat at home all season long and 14 wins in 16 matches should win on Saturday against Mainz and win the title. The black and yellow will be nice, I hope that they will win and we’ll see a great celebration in the town next year for sure. I will go and visit tournament for one, two games at the weekend I already bought my jersey for the 23-24 season is coming.

Flash:

You’re so nervous you’re just rambling on. Because you’re so nervous. I just love it, but listen. It is good nerves that you’ve got though because imagine Kev that he was a Schalke fan, Augsburg or Stuttgart because there’s four teams fighting at the bottom there and at one stage they could be down and out and then… It’s a cruel sport and I think that we are going to actually feel it many times in many different arenas over this weekend.

Kev:

And I think Schalke fans will be disappointed to learn. I’m commentating on their game this weekend because I actually commentated on them going down two seasons ago. And I’ve covered them a lot recently and it’s just been a case of them playing catch up. Because they started the season so poorly. I said at the time I didn’t think Frank Kramer was the right man for them and was proven right in that regard because he never really got them organized defensively and he never got them scoring goals. So Thomas Reis came into it to try and turn them around. I think he’s done largely a good job actually with what is largely a second division squad. And I think he’s been able to make them competitive but the problem they’ve got really is that Stuttgart have managed to pull out a couple of big away wins that nobody saw coming.

The one at Bochum when we didn’t expect it, they hadn’t won away from home in over a year when they did that. And they won 4-1 at Mainz last Sunday and that was a big surprise as well. So the fact that Stuttgart have been able to do that has suddenly pushed Schalke into the bottom two. And so they’ve got a situation where if they lose they are down and they lost 6-1 in the reverse to Leipzig and it’s a very, very tough place to go.

Flash:

No it is. And again even a draw might not be good enough. So again you’ve got to be thinking that basically Schalke have got more than one and a half feet in the trap door and it’s just been like, “Oh please don’t…” Boom, gone. Okay, let’s have a little look at the records. Really excited for this show. See if we can jinx a few. Total 17, Kev up 17.32 so your teammates have even nicked 32 off of you. What a great performance Kev, make sure you go out because remember you’re only as good as your last game. But it’s been a really, really good season and I really, really have enjoyed this show because we’ve had great interaction in the chat. We’ve had a great and wide array of different selections. We’ve obviously had you Kev going and doing what you do. And there’s nothing better than cheering when we know that you’re on an anytime goal scorer, or you know that we’ve got over two and half.

I know you’re professional to the end but I can hear it when you know that I’ve won. Okay, of course it’s all got to be about me again. Please get yourselves in the chat. Thumbs up, I want massive thumbs up for both the lads and we will have a little Q and A at the end. I’m just looking down, we’ve got seven games so why don’t we kick off. Obviously we’ll start with the worst and we’ll finish with the biggest. Oh here we go. Dortmund -625, Mainz at +1300. That’s a really, really big price for Mainz plus two and a half at -125. Dortmund to score four is +125. The draw is at +775. Kev. All these numbers are just saying that it’s done and dusted. But you know that soccer or football is a very, very cruel sport. And I fancy that Mainz might scare the life out of Dortmund. They’ve got all the weapons to do so, but the way that Dortmund have been playing they’re probably, to be fair to them, there’s nobody better once they get their noses in front.

Kev:

Yeah, I think the rightful favorites. And I think you’re going to see this a lot Flash not just in the Bundesliga but you can see it in the Premier League as well. I’m sure you’ve seen with some of the prices on offer there, the markets factor in motivation. I’m not always sure they should, because the assumption is that Dortmund need to win to win the Bundesliga, and Mainz don’t have anything to play for. But that can go one or two ways. It can put extra pressure on the hosts and it can take the pressure away from the visitors. So I do feel in general markets overprice the effect of motivation. So I think that’s interesting. But what you look at is Mainz’s recent form and it looks like a tired team, it looks like a team that’s had a brilliant season but just not quite been able to carry it through.

They’ve lost the last four, they’ve been conceding lots of goals. So Dortmund are the rightful favorites here, but I’m just going to go down a route that I’ve gone without success in the last couple of weeks, but I still think as long as price is good it’s worth doing.

Alex:

That was where I was.

Kev:

Yeah, it’s Adeyemi. Because you look at the market, it was interesting because you’ve got Haller quite short, you’ve got Malen understandably short. But you look at Adeyemi because he’s a wide player, he tends to be a bigger price. And even though he is not scored in the last couple of games, his recent record is still very good across all competitions. And I think he’s a real threat and I think you can get at that Mainz team with pace. And I think he’s one of the ones that could do it. So I do think Dortmund will do it. I do think they’ll get the win. I think it’ll be nervy but I think they’ll get there.

Flash:

Yeah, I was watching away. And obviously being a former player you see things as they’re developing and I see Adeyemi last week actually arriving in the box for a seven yard tapping, and he completely mis-kicked it and I’m thinking oh my god, how has he ever done that? I was just expecting the net to bulge. I don’t see really where there’s actual value in this game unless you’re brave enough to maybe go with Dortmund and both teams to score. But that Mainz -160 to get on the scoresheet themselves. I think it’s -140 both teams to score and over. Alex, anytime scorer, are you just going to just sit with your hands over your eyes and hope for an early goal?

Alex:

Yeah, I hope so because every time Dortmund scores fast in the game they will dominate the game. They are amazing on the break. They can destroy you. But to be honest, yes there is a lot at stake here and Mainz have it wrapped and they have nothing to play for. But Dortmund is still fighting for the title after so many years. But just once in the last almost 20 years, 18 years, Dortmund won by more than two goals against Mainz. So I think that there is a lot of value in that +2.5 at -125. Because let’s say that Dortmund goes two in front, I don’t think that they will risk it so much again. They will stay, try to secure that win because it’s so important for them. I think that Mainz yes are on vacation but they have some talented players in their squad.

Yes they’re out of form. Yes they’re coming on the back of four defeats in a row. But they are just way overpriced in my opinion at +1300. Yeah, you can imagine that I wish Dortmund to win 5-0, but I can take also a 2-0, a 2-1, whatever. A win is a win. And I think there is plenty of value in [inaudible 00:14:40] in that +2.5. And to be honest also that over 3.5 calls team total for Dortmund, I wouldn’t play the over. I think that yes they will score, yes they will win, but four goals, it’s too much. Too much even at home, even for Dortmund.

Flash:

Okay so maybe the under 3 and a half, -155 could be a parlay piece. I mean I know that everyone wants us to put parlays together because it’s the last game obviously of the season. The other thing I saw with Dortmund last week is they were playing against 10 men, which is very, very difficult. I know it sounds a bit strange when you got 11 v 10. But the 10 men then basically they drop and it’s very tough to break them down, because they’re already sitting in the holes that you want to try and exploit. But the Dortmund mentality when they went 1-0 up was backwards and sideways. And I know that they got the late goals and I was thankful for that. Because I actually switched and went off Dortmund after 10 minutes of the game.

But they were very content, and it was almost like the win now is far more important. And listen, let’s not rule out the chance that Mainz do get something out of this game and we end in tears. I mean because that’s just the way, that sport is cruel at the highest level. So let’s not rule it out and if it does come along, let’s not frown upon it. Okay?

Alex:

My only question here Flash, for Kev because maybe he knows some more official information, I checked the Bundesliga official site, I check some other sites. Some of them they have Bellingham doubtful, some of them they have him fit, what should we expect from that? Because we already know that he closed the deal with the Real Madrid. He will play there next season, but will he give everything on the final day? Will he be fit, or they have questions about him playing just for the sake of playing?

Kev:

Well the first question’s absolutely not in terms of Real Madrid, it’s nothing to do with them. Yes you may well go there, but as far as all that are concerned, there’s work to do on that deal. So that’s not official, that’s not as nailed on as people are making out. It may well happen, but Real have stepped away because they’re letting Dortmund focus on this. There are absolutely zero doubts about Jude’s commitment, absolutely zero doubts that he would put in a hundred percent here. He’s not thinking about Real Madrid at all. It’s not relevant to him at this stage. And it will just purely come down to whether he’s fit enough because of the knee injury. That’s something he’s been carrying for a long time. He’s been wearing that knee brace, he’s been playing through the pain barrier. You’ll struggle to find a more committed guy than him I think. And Edin Terzić was quite positive about him in terms of him being able to play. But the one thing they won’t do is risk him.

So there’s an element of maybe bringing him on if necessary. I think they’re only going to really know on the day of the game how he’s feeling and what have you. But in terms of Real Madrid, at the moment, that’s completely irrelevant.

Flash:

Plus 200 anytime scorer, what a way to send off. I love the romance of this type of story. That basically what a decision from Dortmund to take him from Birmingham who are not even a Premier League side, and then him turning into a Rolls Royce. So first of all, congratulations to the scouting, congratulations to the club’s general manager to press a button on a player that’s not [inaudible 00:18:28]. That shows that they have the trust of the people who need to do the job. And then the player himself goes, he’s been captain at the age of 19 of one of the biggest clubs in Europe and now he is going to Real Madrid. I’ve gone goose bumpy because I just love it when people take their chance and there’s nothing worse than [inaudible 00:18:49] .

Alex:

You worked in this field Flash, in what country do you think that have the best scouters? I think that Bundesliga is number one on that.

Flash:

Yeah, I think the [inaudible 00:19:01].

Kev:

Portugal would push them.

Flash:

Yeah, I think it’s understated. The thing is with the Portuguese they get a lot of them Brazilians. And again, they don’t play football to get rich. They play football because they love it and then the riches come. I don’t really want to go onto this, but the cultures in England are the players look for rewards before achievement. Whereas I think it’s the other way around in Germany and I think that’s the way. But there again, why don’t we see Germany lifting World Cups? Why do we see Germany winning European championships? The same with Italy, the same with Spain. Because they go and do their job and then they get to lift the trophy. In England I think there’s too many distractions and the distractions… The talent is there, but the results are also there. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks. Come on Mainz.

Both teams are scoring over two and a half at -140, add Adeyemi anytime scorer +210 which is absolutely massive because he does ghost in and he does arrive with the ball between him and the goal. So it’s just basically boom. And Alex has left it not as complicated. [inaudible 00:20:14]

Alex:

Talking about both teams to score is a hot stat from last season. Last season every Bundesliga team on the final day scored at least once. So maybe some beer money on a huge parlay and wait to get paid. I think that there will be a lot of drama. I think that will be a lot of excitement. A lot of fight at the bottom of the table and also up. So I think there is a pretty good chance to see this outcome once again. So beer money on both teams scoring in every match.

Flash:

Okay, let’s have a little look at game number two. I don’t think we’ll be spending as long on these games as we did the first one, it’s Koln at +650 Bayern -295. The draw is at +500. I expect Bayern to get the job done but this may be a game where if you are live betting and Dortmund are winning then I think that maybe Koln may score. This might be one of those games where both teams to score and over. Alex, Bayern away at Koln. This is going to be a tough little game because unless Bayern get their own way and get their noses in front early, the pressure’s going to mount.

Alex:

Yeah and when I was making sure that I have the best value bet for this match, I was thinking exactly like you. What will Dortmund do in the other match and how will Bayern react? This is why I think that Bayern will start on a strong note, I think that they will try to solve this match from halftime. I think that they have the power even though FC Koln are playing good lately. I mean two wins, against Hertha, against Leverkusen. Of course at that win against the Leverkusen, let’s face it they were prioritizing the Europa League. Hertha is the bottom of the standings. So I think that we shouldn’t give them that much power, only by checking the current standings, and the last results. Because we know that Bayern Munich are just waiting for a bad step of Dortmund to win the title again, and I think that they will start strong. So personally I’m going with halftime full time and I found that at -120. I think this is the only way that you could go. I don’t think that Bayern, we should expect them to cover the spread, the -1.5.

We’ve seen what they did in the last matches. Of course that you will say that okay they won six zero against Schalke but that’s not the case. So yeah, I think that this halftime full-time looks like the best value bet in my opinion.

Flash:

And what about the under four by the way, -135 Kev? Do we not think that that could be a parlay piece with the under Dortmund team tota? Of what was it, Dortmund not to score four, would be at -155, -135. Because if Dortmund are winning and Bayern are winning, there’s nothing Bayern can do.

Kev:

Yeah, that’s true. It’s not for me. I just think obviously if you’re going to put someone in a parlay you’ve got to be fairly confident with it, and I wouldn’t be here. To be honest, I wouldn’t go anywhere near this game personally because I think there are too many different possibilities. And I think Bayern are priced like the buy-in of a few weeks ago or the buy-in of a few months ago, not the buy-in of now, which is a completely different animal. I don’t think they’ve played well for a while. I think even if you look at some of the wins they’ve had. Over Hertha, over Werder, they didn’t play particularly well. And Koln are dangerous in the sense that final home game of the season. Jonas Hector’s being waved off so that’s a really big deal for them. Steffen Baumgart’s just agreed to new contracts. I think it’ll be a really buzzing atmosphere there and they’ll love to mess up Bayern if they possibly can. So for me that -295 is not of interest at all for Bayern to win the game.

They could, of course they could, and Alex might be absolutely right and I’ll cheer him on because I haven’t got a view in this game. But it’s not one for me because I could see Koln being awkward here and I actually think in the last few weeks they’ve played really, really well.

Flash:

The draw at +500 is way overpriced by the way because Koln are difficult to break down. Okay now it might take them 20, 25 minutes because obviously you’ve got the last game of the season in a crowd and they’re all buzzed up, we’re talking about the home side here. And Bayern will have to take their time because for Bayern it’s all about just winning. Now I just don’t see that there’s five goals because Bayern are not going to go pressing forward, they don’t need it for goal difference. It’s all about them just winning the game. At -135, it just seems to be that that is almost a guarantee because I just don’t see Koln folding and I don’t see by pushing forward because they’ve got to keep the back door closed. Very, very interesting game but obviously this game takes on completely different meanings because of what’s going to go on in Dortmund.

So let’s have a little look at the official pick. Myself and Kev both left it alone, but Bayern halftime full-time -120. Bayern come out of the traps and it is job done. And if they go in front then I fancy it is over at -120 to be in the lead at halftime and still pick up the three points. Let’s go on to game number three because a lot of people might be surprised that this one’s on here. But M’gladbach versus Augsburg. Augsburg, I think they’re mathematically going to be okay. I’m just looking down. a draw for them is going to be all right. They do like to fight Kev. But M’gladbach at +120 at home. This is almost like shutting the door after the horse is bolted. They’re liable to put on a five star display here because it’s like the end of the season. There’s complete freedom and I think that I can only go with the home side especially after all what Augsburg put in last week.

Kev:

So Augsburg could win this. M’gladbach have not played particularly well this season. There’s been a lot of talk about Daniel Farke’s future and what the future shape of the club’s going to be. But we know Thuram’s leaving, we know Bensebaini is leaving. And they’ve got a lot of work to do in the summer. It’s not a club that I feel is in a good place right now. Roland Virkus their sporting director’s got a hell of a lot of work to do in terms of strengthening that squad. Yes they’ve kept Joe Scally, I think that’s positive. But they’ve got big strides to make. To me Augsburg are fighters.

They really are and I think them not having Uduokhai is a big blow. But I like Beljo very much, I think some of the signings they made in January are the ones that will have ultimately got them over the line. You’ve got to remember as well with Augsburg every season where they avoid the bottom three is an absolute miracle. This is a club that since they were promoted for the first time in 2011, they’ve never even so much has had to deal with the playoff.

It’s an amazing body of work over the last 12 years. So M’gladbach, yes. Plus 120 may be about right, a smidge short for me. Maybe goals, but I’ve found this tough, I find this one tough,

Flash:

And the reason I’ve actually gone a little step further because it’s just greed. I just know that M’gladbach are one of them sides that they play and they sniff. Basically Augsburg, they’re going to know what’s going on. And I expect Schalke to get beat against Leipzig. So then all of a sudden they’re safe. That’s it. Job’s done. They’re going to be like celebrating it in their minds. But M’gladbach are one of them flat track bullies, I see them scoring free. So from -135 Alex for them to score two, again, is that another parlay piece?

Alex:

Yeah, as you said, I think that Augsburg are safe because it’ll be a miracle if all three, Stuttgart, Bochum and Schalke win their respective matches. And all three of them are very tough matches against Leipzig, Leverkusen and Hoffenheim I think respectively. But I can’t trust M’gladbach here. They won just two of the last six Bundesliga home games as prematch favorites this calendar year. And on the other side Augsburg won three of the last four meetings with M’gladbach. M’gladbach has underdogs on every occasion. I think it’s a done and dusted decision for both sides. I don’t see M’gladbach winning, their confidence level is not there anyway. I’m expecting them to register their lowest end in the standings in the last 12 years in Bundesliga. They are not a team to trust and to bet on. I think that you know better than us, backing them or fading them. Every time you fade them they won. Every time you back them they lost. So I don’t know why you keep pushing the limit with M’gladbach.

Flash:

Just because they’re at home the crowd are going to be up because it’s the final game of the season. It doesn’t matter. I’ve been at many grounds on the last day of the season and I’ve been at home and I’ve been a away. And regardless of what’s gone on for the other 99% of the games, there’s always that party atmosphere. And that for me will appeal to M’gladbach. Then you’ve got Augsburg who basically could know that they’re going to be safe within 25 minutes of the game. And M’gladbach if they smell blood and the likes of Thuram. He’s only got 95 minutes hard work to put in. I fancy he scores, the anytime scorer as well. I just think M’gladbach are far too strong and I think Augsburg don’t score. That’s another one I was going to go with.

Both teams will score, no M’gladbach wins a nil. But my best bet is a free hit on M’gladbach basically minus one and I think it’s like +250. So let’s have a little look at the official pick. And it’s all about the flat track bully for me. M’gladbach minus one at +210 now. So there is money coming in for M’gladbach, it’s M’gladbach minus one, +210. I see them winning the game. I wouldn’t put anyone off of the +120 and I wouldn’t put anyone off of both teams to score, no. Okay, let’s move on. This is the tricky one. Bochum +235, have taken down many a big scalp when they’ve needed to. A lot of people wouldn’t even have thought they had a chance but they’ve found some spirit and the odd occasion they have just belied where they sit in the league. Against a Leverkusen side who are unbelievably talented, they’re +100.

It’s a bit trappy for me this game. Draw +300. Alex, Bochum +130 to score twice, Leverkusen at -155 to score twice. I don’t know why but Bochum should be like +400 and yet they’re +235 for a reason.

Alex:

Yeah because it’s a final for them. Either they will get down, I don’t think there is a lot of chance for them to end the season in 16th and play the playoffs. I know that you will both say, and a lot of people will say that this is a tricky and a trap match. Is a tricky bet and there is no value in Leverkusen. But I fancy that Leverkusen will try to finish this season on a high. They are fighting for that sixth spot right now with Wolfsburg only just one point behind them in the standings. Plus 100, if you were talking like 2 to 3 months before, I think that this price should be at -125. So I think that +100 has plenty of value. The difference in quality between the two teams is huge. I know that Bochum are at home, I know that they will be in front of a absolutely amazing crowd on a season finale here with them fighting to escape the red zone. But this can easily go against them. Because everybody’s expecting them to push for the win.

We know how dangerous Leverkusen is on the break. We know the pace that they have from the mid and up. Unfortunately Hincapie will miss this game because he got a red card against M’gladbach. And that is probably my only worry but I still trust this Leverkusen side and I think that they should finally bounce back. Because right now it’s not about the [inaudible 00:33:47] no more. They just need to secure that six position in the standings. They play in Europe next week.

Flash:

Leverkusen, if they don’t fancy it, they’re not the bravest Kev. Against a Bochum side of the tape. Listen, they’re not scared of anybody. And I always used to say that if they are going to be second they’re the best second you’ve ever seen. Bochum double chance by the way at -120, that does jump off the board. If you’re going to give me a team who’s desperate and to win or draw against a side who can’t defend and are not the bravest if they’re not in front? I want to be with the home side in some way shape or form.

Kev:

Yeah I’ve wrestled with this one because it is tricky. Because Bochum have had some big wins at home. There’s no doubt about that. The only thing that would worry me about them is if they’re in a position where they have to push. Because if they have to push for a win, say if Schalke could go up early at Leipzig, we don’t expect that to happen, but it could. They might get a set piece or something like that. Or Bolton might have one of his runs. And suddenly they’ve got to push. I think it does make them vulnerable. I think Leverkusen they’ve got pace, I think they’ve got quality. And I think +100’s about right. I think that feels about right to me. I wouldn’t put anybody off that. Bochum I think will get amazing support. We know that, it’s going to be a great atmosphere. You just don’t know what the pressure will do to them. They’ve fought ever so hard against relegation all season, they’ve done really well to be in this position.

You just don’t know how they’ll deal with the pressure of that final hurdle. So I think Leverkusen’s the nightmare-ish team to have to face on your final day when you might need something. So if I had to go for something, probably Leverkusen +100 would be it.

Flash:

Well [inaudible 00:35:37] Alex what about both teams to score an over? The pair of you can answer this, because I think that Leverkusen can score. I mean I can see Leverkusen scoring twice. But I think maybe if it’s decent price, then maybe both teams score and over is probably the way to go. Because Bochum are just looking down now. That if Schalke could manage to get a draw and Bochum lose, they will flip-flop because of the goal difference.

Kev:

That’s right. That’s right. So that’s a really big deal. That’s a really big deal because this is what I mean about this situation where Schalke effects it, Stuttgart effects it as well. Because Bochum could end up in any of those spots. They could go down completely, could end up with a playoff spot, or could end up staying up entirely. So Leverkusen is not the type of team you want to open up against, really.

Flash:

No.

Kev:

And I do think Leverkusen have so much quality in those forward areas. So that’s why it is a really, really tricky game. Because as I say, if Schalke could get that early goal somehow, I think it’ll get ever so nervy at the Ruhrstadion, I really do. And that’s where Leverkusen can maybe take advantage. But as you say Flash, Leverkusen might turn up, be really flaky. Bochum is too strong for them physically and suddenly it goes the other way.

Flash:

It is amazing, I love it.

I love this because Alex has got a view. And he’s like a hundred percent right that view could be right. You and I both look at this and go, “Of course they want the draw, Bochum only need a draw, +300 that looks good.” If they open up and push because something goes wrong somewhere, like another game, Leverkusen will shred them. But then you’re like Bochum have beaten Bayern, and beaten Leipzig, beaten… And they’re at plus two, it’s like crazy, all of a sudden. And then I just said both teams are scoring over. But 0-0 will benefit Bochum because no one sees Schalke going into Leipzig and getting all three points.

Alex:

But why not fight to be out totally of the red zone and not to even play [inaudible 00:37:45].

Flash:

Because they’re playing against one of the most dangerous sides in Europe that you open up, you have a shot, keeper catches it, the Bellarabi’s on his way down the right and then four seconds later you’re picking the ball out of the net and kicking off at the halfway line.

Alex:

By the way, I wanted to ask you how the standings look right now. Bochum finishes in the playoff relegation spot. They play Hamburger SV who will come into Bundesliga.

Flash:

I’d go with Bochum.

Kev:

Really tight. Really tight that would be. Hamburg, it’s the same issue as it always is, which is the pressure is enormous. They’re expected to be in the Bundesliga. They’re an enormous football club. Tim Walter saw his team not win last season against Hertha even though they played quite well for a lot of that playoff. So it depends on what lessons they’ve learned from that really.

Alex:

So it’s Hamburger or Heidenheim. So one of them will play in the playoffs. One of them will win the automatic spot in Bundesliga.

Flash:

Yeah, if it is Schalke. If it’s Bochum, it is going to be so nervy and so tight and so close because they’ve got nothing to lose them sides that are potentially coming up. All the pressure is on the bottom Bundesliga sides. Let’s have a little look at the official pick though. Leverkusen and money line +100. This will be definitely one of my games that I’ll be tuning into. This is a hundred percent with obviously Koln and Bayern obviously Mainz. Let’s move on to the next game. Union versus Werder. Union at -230, minus one is 140. Werder they’re +115 not to score, +375 on the draw. Alex, I just see home win but -230 no thank you. I don’t even see that we see three goals. I just think Union need to win, they’ll get the win and then it’s just jog on.

Alex:

It’s so hard to call this one because Union Berlin never was in this situation to fight for a champion’s league spot. And that would be, I don’t know if they do that, if they achieve that on Saturday, I think May the 27th every year will be a celebration in Berlin for this amazing achievement. So I think the pressure is on Union. Werder Bremen has nothing to fight for. So they will come to play relaxed to enjoy this trip. The atmosphere in the stands will be amazing. I think that Union wins. I think that they are the better side between the two.

At home they’re a different animal than on the road. They have a lot, everything to fight for in this match. But I think that Werder Bremen are a bit overpriced. I don’t know maybe plus 1.5 on the spread should be at -120 is another way to look at this match. I don’t think that Union wins by more than one goal difference. I think that if they score first they will try to keep it there and they know how to defend. This is the good thing because at home they only allowed 11 goals in 16 home matches so far. And they are the only unbeaten team at home in the Bundesliga. So this is huge for them. I don’t know [inaudible 00:41:45]

Flash:

Werder Bremen have let in 63 goals.

Alex:

And on the road Werder Bremen 35 in 16 games.

Flash:

Over two a game. And the beauty is homeside win, Champions League. Unless we see, I think it’s got to be an over four goal difference over Freiburg. It ain’t happening. Union, this is beautiful, you’re at home, you’ve not been beaten, you’re against the side who shipped goals before the kickoff, you know what I mean? Go and do what you’ve done in every other game. They’re so professional in what they do. I just feel Union, well done, Champions League for you. All you got to do is go and win the game.

Kev:

Yeah, I think there are complications there in a sense.

Flash:

I know [inaudible 00:42:28].

Kev:

Again, Freiburg gets an early goal in Frankfurt and suddenly the pressure’s really on. And people start murmuring and start talking about what’s going on elsewhere. This is purely a value play for me because it really jumps out to me. I couldn’t believe the price of both teams to score. I was amazed by it. Because I think it’s predicated on the fact that Union have a good defensive record. But I think actually if you look at them in recent weeks, they’ve not defended that well. And they shipped four at Hoffenheim last week. And which we said they’d concede a couple of goals and that’s exactly what happened. And you look at Werder, a lot of their games recently have seen both teams score. We know that Ducksch will be leading the line. But also this talk that Niclas Füllkrug might be fit. And he might have one last game in a Werder shirt before we think he will move on in the summer.

We think Werder will sell to try and balance the books. And he’s chasing the Torjägerkanone, the top scorers trophy. So Werder have nothing to lose. I think they’ll push for goals. And I think they’ll play the way they always play. So for me, I’m not bothered about who wins and who loses as long as both teams score, I’m happy.

Flash:

And both teams scoring over because obviously a draw would be very, very nervy for Union, dependent on what’s going on elsewhere. And this is why live betting on the final day is so, so important. And obviously it’s not this game but I’ve got a +250 on Schalke going down from my futures at the start of the season. So there’s another reason that I’m cheering on Bochum.

Alex:

By the way, Füllkrug is on 16 goals and after that we have four players with 14 and amongst them is in Nkunku and Gnabry. Gnabry with five goals in the last four matches, scoring every game. Nkunku right now. I don’t know if we should trust him anymore because the final game I think that he’ll leave. Call him in one [inaudible 00:44:45]

Flash:

In front of his own crowd though?

Kev:

And I think they’ll try and set him up for goals.

Flash:

Yeah, me too.

Kev:

I think they’ll try to set him up for goals. And I think as well you’ve got bear in mind with that he’s got a Cup final soon. So he can’t be easing off and I don’t think they will. I think Leipzig will take that really seriously on Saturday, which obviously doesn’t make for a particularly good picture for Schalke.

Alex:

So do you think that there is a possible way for one of the four players to overcome Füllkrug?

Kev:

Yeah, a hundred percent. A hundred percent.

Flash:

[inaudible 00:45:17] twice.

Kev:

Yeah I think so. I could see Kolo Muani getting a couple if Fryberg have got to push for a win against Frankfurt then there’ll be space for Kolo Muani. I think Nkunku get chances. He scores penalties, he scores free kicks. There’s no reason why he can’t get a couple of goals. So yeah, I think if full crew plays, whether it’s from the start or as a sub, but if he’s involved I think they’ll play on the front foot and they’ll try and score goals.

Flash:

Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Both teams to score -110. Union on minus one free hit for me -140. Let’s move on to the game that we’ve just been talking about with Kolo Muani needing goals, but Frankfurt a +135, Freiburg at +180. I’ve never really got either of these sides right this year, draw is at +280. Kev, how do you see this game going? Because the better side for me, and this is strange, it’s the home side, as in a footballing side, but Freiberg just keep upsetting the odds and they need to win the game.

Kev:

I thought they were brilliant last week against Wolfsburg. I thought they were absolutely outstanding in the second half. First half was poor, but I thought brought on by the crowd. It was very emotional. Nils Petersen scored in his final home game for the club. And I thought it was a classic Freiburg performance actually. Defensively solid, looked dangerous on set plays, lots of good wing play, thought they were excellent. Frankfurt were better than I thought they were going to be away to Schalke last week. I thought they dealt with the atmosphere pretty well, but again, they didn’t win the game, they didn’t see it out. And this is a big issue for them. I think they’ve probably won one of the last 11, something like that. One in the last 12 actually I think. Oliver Glasner is going to go after the Cup final.

I think they’re going to have a fresh start. I’m fairly neutral about these things but I would like him to go out with a Cup win because I think he’s done brilliant work with Eintracht Frankfurt. And it would be nice for that golden era for them to continue. That’s not particularly against Leipzig, it’s just I’d quite like Glaser to win another trophy before he goes. But there’s no getting away from the fact that Frankfurt +135 is not the bet for me. It might happen. But that for me is not rooted in the current reality. That that’s one of those where the market has a price in its head, has a rating in its head and hasn’t really moved with what’s happened in 2023. So I would have it as closer, because if you factor in a little bit of home advantage.

I would say they’re pretty much cigarette paper between them. So I think if you are going to go for anything, you’d probably go for goals I think. Over three at -105, maybe over one and a half for Freiburg or +115 because they know they’ve got to get a better result than Union manage against Werder Bremen. So they’ve got to keep pushing.

Flash:

Yeah, anytime scorers could well be on the cards as well. We’ve got [inaudible 00:48:29], we’ve got Kolo Muani and for Freiburg, where you might as well just maybe take their center backs. Because Frankfurt’s defending from set pieces just leaves a lot to be desired by the way. Because I don’t know if they’re zonal or whether they’re picking up. So again, Freiburg scoring twice at +105 doesn’t mean they’re going to win the game. Over three goals in the game at -105. Alex, does this look like one of yours with no clean sheets and someone gets two?

Alex:

Yeah, no clean sheets and someone gets two, exactly like you guys previewed it. I totally agree with everything you said. And I think that this is also a type of game, okay, not at the same level, but if Freiburg push too much they will leave gaps at the back and you know how good Eintracht is on the break, right? Unfortunately for Freiburg one of the most consistent midfielders, Nicholas Hofler is suspended for this match because he got red carded against Wolfsurg. That is a huge blow in my opinion for them. One of the most consistent players, he missed just one match, that he was suspended, all year long. And he played 75 minutes in a match throughout the season. And the rest he was on the pitch there. So huge miss for Freiburg here. We talked about the top scorers, Kolo Muani of course should always be seen as a potential scorer here. So I’m going simple. The Alex classic both teams to score and the over 2.5 goals at -120.

Flash:

I’ll tell you what’s [inaudible 00:50:15] there, talk about a parlay. You could do three doubles and a treble with in Nkunku, Gnabry and Muani anytime scorers by the way. Because all three of them sides look like they’re going to score at least a couple. So I mean we’ll go over that again, but Nkunku, Gnabry and Muani. Let’s have a little look at the official pick because every man and his dog in the chat is all saying goals in this game. Both teams scoring over two and a half, -120. And then you haven’t even got a worry, you just enjoy the game going back and forth. And if Freiberg know that Union have gone clear two, three, nil, Frankfurt are the type of side that will take advantage and score three or four themselves. So just enjoy the goals and hopefully you get the right goal scorer. Let’s go to the final game.

Stuttgart versus Hoffenheim. Another game that looks like goals but the -170 on Stuttgart. Hoffenheim are +395. And if you’ve seen anything of Hoffenheim recently, they seem to have got the balance right between the defense and the scoring of goals. Because they went through that stage of they were giving up 20 chances a game, because they were trying to change their DNA. They seemed to have gone back to their old ways, and they’re scoring. Stuttgart, three goals at +155. The draw is at +360. And remember the Stuttgart side are also reliant on other news from other grounds and if they’re safe, Hoffenheim are massive. Kev?

Kev:

Yeah, we talked about this at the top of the show, it’s the motivation angle. I mean these prices are just not reflective of reality at all. I mean -170 for Stuttgart to get the win. I’ve talked about this many, many times this season, and I’m still baffled by it. The market loves Stuttgart, and I don’t get it. Because they only just survived last season on the final day, the final minute of the final day. And they’re still in relegation danger here. Yes, they were very good at Mainz last week. You have to hand it to them. They’ve picked up a couple of really important away wins under Sebastian her of course the irony here in the background to this is that the two coaches have job swapped because Sebastian Hoeness is the Stuttgart coach now. Up until the summer was the Hoffenheim coach.

He got binned, Bruno Labbadia at the start of this season was the Stuttgart coach. He got binned after a couple of months and he’s ended up at Hoffenheim. So both coaches coming up against their former clubs. I just think Hoffenheim can play with a bit of freedom. I think they can relax, they’re okay. They put four past Union last week. And for them to be +190 to score a couple of goals, just assumes that they’re going to turn up and just allow Stuttgart to win. And I just don’t think that’ll be the case/

Flash:

Plus 395 for them to win. So that tells me that double chance on Hoffenheim to pick up something out of a game where Stuttgart can be celebrating and a draw at +360 could definitely be a viable option. But you’re going to be looking at, what, +145. Alex, +145 for a side that scores goals against the side who could be safe. Because the other sides have not done what they should have. I mean it’s massive.

Alex:

Yeah, I don’t know what to say about this match. Yes, Stuttgart should win this game. Because even if we look at this game as the pressure is onStuttgart, then Hoffenheim will enter this match and they will enjoy it, play relaxed. Score a couple of goals here and there, but their away form doesn’t say to us the same thing. I know that they improved lately. I know that they’re scoring goals. But away from home in the last matches they scored one against a Wolfsburg. None against Leipzig, one against a Bayern. So I’m not expecting them to put on a great show, but they’re a bit overpriced. At plus one the pressure will be on Stuttgart with the results from other venues. Stuttgart might be happy also with a point from this match. So plus one on Hoffenheim, -115 should be a great value bet. Because the difference between the two sides is not that big. Of course if you look at it, Hoffenheim has nothing to play for. But -170 on Stuttgart? No thank you.

Flash:

No. And the other one is Stuttgart winning this game by two goals. So that’s almost a free hit, Hoffenheim plus one because if Stuttgart get themselves in front, they know that a point is okay, right? I just don’t see why Stuttgart would then push. But there’s also the playoff place, because I think Bochum wins. So Bochum wins, Stuttgart then have to win. It is like this is probably the game that goes on for 95 minutes. Because of what happens in Bochum. Forget Schalke. But what happens in Bochum is really going to worry this Stuttgart side and I think it goes for 95 minutes. So goals, and you know what it’s like, it could be 1-1 and the draw looks good for Stuttgart and there’s 10 men, the keeper goes up. And we still get that Hoffenheim second in the 94th minute and there’s tears, which some people don’t like tears. I do. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks.

There’s pain, it’s sport, you’ve got to have winners and losers. You’ve got to embrace them both. Hoffenheim team total over one and half at +190. I would recommend that people look at the Hoffenheim double chance by the way, forget the plus one, double chance that they get something out of the game. Because if Hoffenheim score twice, like Kevs got at 190, they don’t lose a game. I’m not having Stuttgart=

Alex:

Never.

Flash:

… Scoring three. You must be crazy. Okay, time for a Q and A. You might as well be quick because we’ve done the majority of the games. We’ve touched on nearly everything. Remember, I think it was, I’ve just wrote it down. Plus 394 anytime goal scorer, Nkunku and Muani, just them two, at +394, looks like there’s your two player parlay. Now also I’d like you to subscribe and also I’d like you to ring the bell and we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. And most of that will be because obviously when we do the futures show at end of July, first week of August, and that will be on all the soccer channels. And we’ve got soccer leagues and we’ve got so much more coming as well. And if you want your odds on your props for these last two free games, then type in BetUStv.com/odds. And if you want a $50 free bet on Nkunku and Muani parlay at +394, so that 50 turns into about 190 odd profit. Help yourself, BetUStv.com/50. Alex?

Alex:

Very, very good comment from Harry Doherty.

Flash:

Really? That’ll be the first.

Alex:

First in a million. Yeah, this is what I want to say too. Goalkeepers to get booked for time-wasting. So this is very important, live betting, to see what is going on on other pitches, at other venues. Because if the result is okay for the host, for example, mostly for the ones that are fighting relegation. And the keepers have the ball, there will be a lot of time-wasting. So yeah, wait for some yellow cards, for some bookings. But this is live betting. Don’t forget, don’t do it from the first minute of the game.

Flash:

No. Okay. The other one is Kevin, it’s quite a good question again, is “What game do you think will have loads of corners?” Again that’s situations and circumstances, because it depends on how the games are going around them, that teams then don’t want to venture forward. So again, it’s a really good question, but it’s also one that it’s quite easy to dodge.

Kev:

Yeah, I mean listen, that’s not really the way I play corners to be honest. The way I do it is you generally look at the average over the season. And you throw a low risk selection into a parlay. So for example, I tend to find over six and a half corners usually will do the trick, but it will add you on a little bit of value to something. So if you’ve got a team that you think is going to win, but they’re a bit shy of evens and you think, well I quite like seven odds against, well fine, just chucking over six and a half corners. Or if you’re feeling braver over seven and a half, and generally that will come off. It doesn’t always, I was on Majorca to beat Valencia in over seven and a half corners and that was a bit short.

Alex:

One short?

Kev:

Last night. Yeah. So that was frustrating. But that’s the way I play corners. I don’t necessarily look at all, which game, it is just if I happen to be looking at a game and I want to use it to enhance the price, that’s the way I do it.

Flash:

Yeah, Harry, for me it’d probably be Bochum versus Leverkusen at this moment in time. Because again, you could have a corner for Bochum and four seconds later it could be Leverkusen. But again, there’s so much more meat to enjoy on these bones.

Alex:

I think that it’s also Union Berlin versus Werder Bremen for a lot of corners. I think that also Freiburg versus Eintracht. I think that most of the corners will come from the teams that have something to play for. Dortmund versus Mainz, again, will have corners. In my opinion those are the measures to look for corners.

Kev:

But also look at teams that attack a lot down the wings. Koln are great for that. Koln [inaudible 01:00:06] play down the flags. Exactly.

Flash:

Yeah. Santos says, “Will there be an MLS show in the summer Flash?” It’s almost like you are thinking we are having the normal eight-week break. We’re going to be in June, right? It’s going to be June 10 when we finish with the Champions League. Six weeks later we’re going to be in August giving you the futures. So you’re having no break this year because of the World Cup. So don’t even think about it. But yes, next season when it starts, I think it’s at the end of February, we will be doing MLS, and MLS will become the fifth soccer show. So it won’t be just like, oh, we’re just touching on it. It will be like you see now with Kev and with Alex on Bundesliga. I will have two MLS experts and we will go through the games weekly. Okay. So that’s something to look forward to.

Okay. Let’s have a look at the best bets. Okay. Kevs gone for Adeyemi anytime scorer +210. But he also thinks that an Nkukku and Kolo Muani, they’re of good value as well. Union and Werder, both teams to score at -110, Hoffenheim team total over one and half at +190. Dortmund/Mainz. Both teams score over two and half at -140. M’gladbach minus one at +210, Union minus one at -140 at home to Werder. Bayern halftime full-time -120, Leverkusen money line at +100. Frankfurt/Freiberg. Both teams score at over two and a half at -120 for Alex. It just leaves me to say thank you to everyone in the chat. Totally and utterly enjoy this show every single week. It’s been an absolute joy. Kev, you have been a breath of fresh air and your expertise, I’m so grateful for it. I’ve learned a lot. And Alex, hopefully you’ll have a better year next year. And good luck tomorrow, mate. You know, you know that I’m cheering you on, don’t you? You do know?

Alex:

Yeah, right.

 

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