Flash:
Welcome to the BetUS soccer channel. I’m Flash. It’s Bundesliga show. It’s match day four. I normally say, “Chuck the balls up, see where they land.” Well I tell you what, some of these teams, they’ve not landed at all, and they are meant to be big guns.
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So we’re going to have shirts. The shirt contest is in the link in the description. Press that, and that gives you an opportunity to enter. There’ll be two shows on Monday, three shows on Monday, that’ll be your last opportunity, and then obviously I’ll be giving out the winners. Also, we have a Q and A. There’s no prop of the week this week, so if there is something that you want to talk about, get yourselves in the chat, make sure that you comment along the way.
Now my two experts, and they are experts to be fair to them, I know they’re quite modest. They don’t like to shout and blow their own trumpets. But first of all, I’ve got the voice of European soccer in Kevin Hatchard, and I’ve got the man with the Midas touch, who, recently, he’s not needed his might touch in the 94th minute. He’s been getting him in the 89th, and that’s that AlexClassicTips.
Kev, welcome. Good week last week on the entertainment front, but it was quite tough on the betting front.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, it was. There was some really interesting results. I thought Hoffenheim played as well as I seen them play for a long time in that three-nil win at by Bayer Leverkusen. Obviously there was a coupon buster in Dortmund as Wolfsburg made history by being the first team to come back from two nil down in the 89th minute to win a game. So that was something none of us saw coming really. I thought they might score, but certainly didn’t see them coming back to win that game, but Dortmund played very poorly, to be fair by.
Bayern, I think we suspected, were going to win big, and Kingsley Coman, we talked about him scoring and he came back and got a goal, and it just shows the depth that they have because they can hurt you in so many different ways. So a fantastic start from them, but we suggested on the Futures show that Bochum could struggle, and it certainly looks that way. Three games, they’ve lost all of them, and this talk about the coach, Thomas Reis, what’s happening with his contract. So yeah, difficult situation for them.
You’ve got Leipzig slipping up again. We thought that might happen. We said that Union could at least take a point off them, and in the end they beat them, and they’ve beaten them now consistently in the Bundesliga. That’s not a one off. They are getting to the stage where they’re at least level with Leipzig in those head-to-heads, and probably should be the favorites. So some really interesting games.
Flash:
I couldn’t agree more. I think we have got to start looking at some of these teams, like Freiburg, like Union, like Mainz when they’re at home, but they’re more than equal for these sides. They’re not laying down, and they’re not scared, Alex. But the alarming thing is Leverkusen have not turned up this season. Frankfurt have been shocking. We’ve got Leipzig that have just so disjointed, considering the main strength of their whole squad was the togetherness. So, I mean, that makes it tough for us, tough for punters, but we got off to a decent start.
Alex:
We did. Yes, we did, and we are on profit, and that’s the most important thing, and we predicted some of the results, and we predicted also some upset. So you’ll not here us here only to talk about the picks, but we are talking about different matches and saying our opinion about matches, and I love the fact that we avoided some of the bets and we did well. Again, like Kev said, very impressed with the new look of Bayern Munich, the new system, the new style. Leroy, Mane scored last weekend as we-
Flash:
Gnabry? Did Gnabry score?
Alex:
Gnabry. Coman. Everybody scores there.
Flash:
Yeah, we had four different scorers. Kev, you let us down though, because obviously Musiala didn’t score.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, that’s right. He was injured. I did say Coman was decent bet, just about that.
Flash:
You did.
Kevin Hatchard:
Just above evens.
Flash:
We had them all. We had four any time goalscorers.
Alex:
But it’s simple, when they score seven, it’s simple to predict the goalscorers from a team.
Flash:
But you know the scary thing? The scary thing is, if they’d have scored seven before, Lewandowski would’ve got four. This is what I was said about Bayern being completely untraceable. You can’t track their runners because they’ve got seven or eight. I mean, Pavard comes up, ghosts in, and he looks like he can score every week as well.
Alex:
The good thing is that there is no ego there, so if they are scoring, but after that, if they have the chance to pass for another teammate to score, they will do that. They are not, I don’t know, Mbappe style, that he’s going all in only him score, or Neymar, or something like that. They are very unite, and I like the fact that from a world class team with world class players, one more expensive than the other, they’re like a family now after Lewandowski left.
Also Thomas Muller wrote on Instagram, it was a video from him on his Instagram yesterday saying like, “Lewandowski, we are waiting for you back in Munich,” because they’re in the same group. And how on earth [inaudible 00:05:54] is doing, but every time they are doing this type of stuff, so Lewandowski just went to Barcelona, and suddenly he has to come in Munich to play against his former side. I wonder how the fans will react when he will step on the pitch.
Flash:
I think they class, Kevin. Obviously, it’s one of those. They cheer him before, they cheer him after, and they won’t be cheering him during. I think it’s both teams to score and over in both them legs. Barcelona will score against Bayern. Bayern will score against Barcelona. So listen, we are going to be in for a real, real treat.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah. I think they’re going to be really good ties. I’d like to think he’ll get a good reception in Munich. I think he deserves that. It was a shame the way that it ended. It was quite acrimonious, truth be told, as he tried to force his way out, but in the end Bayern got a good deal, and I think it would be wrong of the Bayern fans to boo him or anything like that, so I would hope that Lewandowski will get a good reception. And I think he will.
Flash:
Yeah, no doubt about it. Right. Let’s have a little look at these records, because I tell you what, it’s been tough, really, the first three weeks for the average man. But profit, just a little bit under for Kev, but that’s because he didn’t have Musiala to lean on last week, who’s been getting him his money. Alex has got off a good start at 2.29. The prop of week has gone one, one and one, but still up. But 2.95. First three weeks, we’ll take that. We’re not chasing our hat. Okay, Kev, also, before we kick off with the games, what games are you covering this weekend?
Kevin Hatchard:
So I’ve got tonight’s game, which is Freiburg against Bochum, and then I’ve got Union’s trip to Schalke tomorrow.
Flash:
Oh, nice ones. Okay. And I fancy we’ve got bets in both of them games, so let’s kick straight off. Let’s go with Freiburg versus Bochum. Here we go. Freiburg versus Bochum. Facebook, now, you don’t mess out with them. Home or away, they’re minus 2 10, and Bochum on the back of letting in seven. Lucky number seven, plus 5 50. Freiburg to win by, I mean minus 1 35 looks like a free hit. Total is at 3 plus 100. I’m not sure Bochum get on the ball here. So you’re looking at Bochum not to score at plus 1 40. Even though they did huff and puff last week. I’m going to come to you first, Kev, because obviously you’re doing this game, so that means you’ve got good notes. The draw at plus 3 75 is redundant for me. How do we get the best out of Freiburg?
Kevin Hatchard:
So there’s a few ways you could do this, really. I do think Freiburg win the game. So you could either combine that with the goals bet, because I think we’ll probably see goals, because Bochum are not defending very well at all. I think the key to this is set plays actually, because Freiburg have been brilliant on set pieces for the last couple of seasons, and Bochum have already conceded five goals from dead ball situations, and they’ve already conceded five headed goals as well. So I think Freiburg are going to be able to pose a threat. I think Vincenzo Grifo is going to be able to pose a threat. He’s scored a couple of goals already, and he’s been outstanding this season. You look at his record last season, nine goals, seven assists in the Bundesliga. Some metrics will have that, those numbers, the assist numbers, even higher.
So I think Freiburg have all their key players fit. There’s no reason why they shouldn’t win this game. The alarm bells are ringing really, I think, for Bochum, for the reasons we talked about in the Futures show. They’ve lost half the squad. I don’t think the recruitment has been particularly impressive. The budget’s not very high, so you can understand that. There are worries about the coach because his contract’s up at the end of the season. The feeling was that he didn’t get the kind of offer financially that he wanted, that he felt he deserved, having kept the club in the Bundesliga last season, and so those talks been put on hold until the World Cup. So there’s going to be that uncertainty around the place, and I just can’t quite see where they’re going to get moving. I think they’ll get some good results at home this season because they’ve got great support at the Ruhrstadion, but I do think it’s going to be a long, hard season.
Flash:
Okay. And the good thing about Freiburg is they’re going from strength to strength, and their confidence is so, so high. I mean, I expect them to score in the first half. I’d expect them to be leading at half time. But Alex, are you worried about a threat that Bochum… because although they got beat heavily last week, they did have their moments where a little bit sharper in the opposition’s box, they could have got on the score sheet. But it’s plus 1 40. Is this like a Freiburg win and both teams to score?
Alex:
Let’s not forget that the last season they’re one of the worst sides on the road. 11 defeat in 17 games, 35 goals conceded in the process. Kev touched on the internal issues. No budget. I mean, limited budget for a team like Bochum is bad. They’re fighting to avoid allegation. With the players that they brought in, I don’t think there is possible way to avoid relegation. The type of football that they’re playing, also, 12 goals conceded in three games this season. Of course, from those 12 goals, seven came from Bayern. So yeah, it’s normal. So let’s not even look about last week’s match. But Freiburg, even against Dortmund, if you remember, we talked about this last week. They were very, very unlucky with that goalkeeper mistake. But I love the fact that their confidence level is higher again, and they put in a good performance last week. One-zero, keeping a clean sheet on the road against SG.
Flash:
And SG pressed them, to be fair.
Alex:
Exactly.
Flash:
SG did press them.
Alex:
Exactly. Also against Dortmund, if you remember, they were very comfortable at the back before Dortmund scored. Dortmund didn’t create a lot of opportunities either in that game. So very, very organized at the back, SG. Great on the attack. Great on the break, like Kev said, with Grifo on fire right now. You are looking at minus one at minus 1 35.
But why to take minus 1 35? Because if you think that if Freiburg will cover the spread here, they will definitely lead at half time, and they will win the game. I was even thinking about winning two-nil, but I’m not a fan of this market, so I let it go, but I really think that Freiburg will enter this match all guns blazing, with the fans behind their back. What a great atmosphere they’re creating at home. So I think that they will comfortably win this game, and they will maintain themselves in the first half of the table, in the first five, maybe to pass Mainz this week, maybe to pass Union Berlin. Who knows. But they are there, so last season is not a mistake, it’s not a fluke. So this Freiburg team is here to stay, and to perform good, and to pull off many upsets this season.
Flash:
And the other thing I think we’ve got to mention, though, Kev, is good sides at home on a Friday night, there’s a party atmosphere, because you know that the fans are going to the game. They’ve already been to the bar, they go to the game, and then they go out and they’re already partying after the game as well. So for me, it’s got to be finding a way of getting good value with the home side.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah. Freiburg always get good support. Obviously they’re in a different stadium these days. Europa-Park Stadion is not the same as the Schwarzwald Stadion, which was a lot tighter, maybe a bit more intimidating, but I still think Freiburg have had some good results at home, and there’s no reason why they shouldn’t come away with all three points here. I think it’d be a major surprise if Bochum were able to avoid defeat.
Flash:
Yeah, everyone in the chat is going on the Freiburg train, so we’re either going to be singing together or we’ll be crying in our fenders. Halftime, full time, plus 1 25. Plus 1 63 Freiburg to win two-nil. There’s all sorts here. I mean, Freiburg to score in both halves at plus 1 12. Let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks, because we are trying to get off to an absolute flyer here on a Friday night, set up a couple of units, because for me, it’s Freiburg halftime at plus 1 05. Freiburg, halftime, full-time, at plus 1 15. So that man, Grifo, anytime goal scorer at plus 1 50. Kev, you love an anytime goal score at plus 1 50.
Kevin Hatchard:
Well, I just think if you’re looking at that game, and you’re thinking, “I think Freiburg will win, at minus 1 35, minus 1 on the handicap, well you want two goals at least, and I’m thinking, well, Grifo, the way he’s playing, has got a great chance of scoring those. He got his first ever left footed goal in the Bundesliga last week, he got the winner against Stuttgart. I just think Bochum will struggle to handle him, and from set plays, he’s a real danger.
Alex:
Also, I want to ask you Flash. Halftime only?
Flash:
Yeah, I just went, “That’s it. That will do me. I’m not complicating the issue. Plus 1 05, move on.” I’m not in the heady heights of you, if you’re over 2.29 units of profit. I’m like clawing away. I’m like the little misery man who’s, “Oh, I found a quid. I’ll stick it in the coffers.” I’m not as rich as you. I just have to take what I can find, and I thought, half time, plus 1 05. Yeah, just looking at minimum one-nil. Do we think they’ll score three, lads?
Kevin Hatchard:
It’s possible, the way that Bochum are defending. It is possible.
Alex:
Yes.
Flash:
Okay. Well anyway, so Freiburg all the way, and Grifo anytime scorer, plus 1 50. So nice little two-nil at half time. Grifo’s got them both. Alex will already be cash in, and me, I’ll be off and gone. Okay. Let’s go to game number two, because maybe this is a little bit dodgy, this game, to be honest, because it’s Mainz versus Leverkusen. Mainz have started really, really well. Strong. Leverkusen, whew. Relegation fodder, the way that they’ve been performing so far. Okay, they might give us a little half an hour, 40 minutes, on the opening match day, but apart from that, nowhere near Them.
Mainz are plus 1 75, and this is a classic of big names. The betting is by the names, and not by the way they’ve been performing, because how can you have Leverkusen favorites at plus 1 40? The draw is at plus 2 80. Yeah, I can see that being a runner. The under or over three, well the over three is at plus 100. Team total, Leverkusen to score twice at minus 1 05. Alex, I struggled to see why Leverkusen scoring twice is the favorite? Because they have been so disjointed. They have not been sharp, and as we said last week, they look like they’re three or four weeks behind the majority, and Mainz at home, as I think you’re both going to tell me, are strong.
Alex:
Yeah, they are strong, but I think that the bookies are offering Mainz to score at least twice as a favorite here because of their attacking line. They still have one of the best attacking lines. Pace, creativity. Patrick Schick is yet to find the back of the net, but let’s not forget that he loves to play against Mainz. He score two goals in his last three head to head matches against Mainz. Leverkusen, I think that is the second time, yeah, is the second time together with the 2018/2019 campaign where they lost their first three games of the season, and let’s not forget that that season, they still finished in top four. But they won their fourth game of the season. So they never lost the four on the bounce, and that is important too.
I think that when Wirtz will come, it will change, but probably Wirtz will come in January, so they cannot wait till January for staff to be changed. I think that Leverkusen still has enough firepower to find the back of the net, even though they are struggling to find the goal. I think that behind the Bayern Munich, they have the most goal attempt this season, so they have a problem in with the last touch. So I think that they should work on that. So I think that it’s time for Leverkusen to score, to score at least twice.
Yes, Mainz at home are amazing, and they will probably fight for a top six finish, which will bring them a European position. Let’s not forget that they missed that by an inch last season. But still, this is a tricky match to be called on the money line, because Leverkusen are in bad shape. Mainz are great, not only results, but also in front of their fans, and we remember what happened last season with them at home. So I think that we should focus on the goals market here, because I expect this to be our high scoring affair.
Flash:
No clean sheets then, Kev? So we’re looking at both teams to score and over, one of them getting two goals, or they both get two goals.
Kevin Hatchard:
I think we could see both teams to score and over. I think the recent games are quite interesting. Leverkusen were leading until quite late on against Mainz in this fixture last season. It was a game I did, actually, on a Friday night, and Mainz scored a brilliant goal to equalize, and then got one right at the death to win it. Patrick Schick got injured in that game. I think that was a calf injury he got, he was out for a couple of months after that.
And you just can’t trust Leverkusen at the moment, and there are lots of things going wrong at the moment. They don’t have that goal efficiency. They don’t have solidity defensively. They were pulled apart too easily against Hoffenheim, even though Hoffenheim played very, very well. And with Mainz at home, with the crowd behind them, I just think it’s a tough game to win, so I wouldn’t be going anywhere near Leverkusen at plus 1 40, so I think if you are going to go for this one, backing Mainz to score over one and a half team total at plus 1 10, that looks the number that screams out to me.
Flash:
Okay. And is it possible-
Alex:
Yeah, I mean, if you think about it last season, when Leverkusen finished third, Leverkusen on the road allowed three from Mainz. So another three-two is possible once again, because Leverkusen will come to return to winning ways here, but Mainz will not allow that. Leverkusen were dreadful at the back. Six goals considered in the first three matches. It says a lot about how bad they are in their defense. So I think that Mainz can easily score twice on the road, and that is a great value, better together with the goals market with Alex Classic here.
Flash:
Yeah, a lot of people are going to run scared just because they don’t believe that Leverkusen are going to lose four in a row. I mean, I think that’s the biggest, unless like a little mini open now.
Alex:
Two-two. Two-two, it’s okay. Two-two.
Flash:
The old Desmond, eh? We’re going to go for the Desmond. Let’s have a little look, then, at the official peaks, because this is a really good game to watch, and I think you just go goals, and just spin that coin. Okay, both teams to score, and over two and a half goals at minus 1 25, is one of Alex. Alex has double dipped, because he’s got another one as well that’s going to flick up. Where’s the other one then? Minus team total, over 1.5 at plus 1 10. I think the problem is, yeah, do Leverkusen let us down by not scoring? I mean, it’s so many questions. There is so many questions over Leverkusen. I actually went with Leverkusen to be up there. Do we think that they’re going to turn this round, gents?
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, they will. They will. There’s too many good players in that team not to, eventually. Wirtz is a big miss, there’s no doubt about that. He’s still coming back from that crucial ligament injury. Callum Hudson-Odoi, I think, is an interesting acquisition, potentially, and they’ve got a couple of players who are just finding their feet. Adam Hlozek is a talented young player. He’s not anywhere near ready at this stage, but he will be in a few weeks, I think. Sardar Azmoun’s running around chaotically at the moment, but he’ll settle down too. So in the end, they’ll be fine, but this is just a bit of a sticky patch for them.
Alex:
Flash, 13 together with 16, 17 shots on target, and 40 and something goal attempts in the first three games, scoring only one goal. This has to be reversed.
Flash:
Yeah, but also, I mean, some of them stats are misleading because you get someone who, they might be coming from the wrong areas.
Alex:
I totally understand you. Yeah. Stats. Okay. We’re looking at stats, but for who watch the matches, they will know what I’m talking about. At least, okay, against Hoffenheim they played awfully bad, but against Augsburg, they were amazing. They were pressing 90 minutes.
Flash:
Yeah, but see in that game-
Alex:
Against Dortmund, they had too many chances and they failed to score. So I think that this should reverse sooner or later.
Flash:
Yeah, my biggest problem with Leverkusen is when they’re attacking, they’re vulnerable, because for some reason-
Alex:
Yes, well we know.
Flash:
The players go out wide and do not stay in central areas, so teams break. We’re talking about Augsburg going there, taking the lead, then drawing level, and then getting a winner. It should have been all over, but they struggled to break down. There’s that little bit of a, remember I say to you about having a can opener type player.
Alex:
Yeah.
Flash:
That when players sit deep, you can’t just lump it in the box, because these are lower, lesser sides, and by the way, Mainz are not like that at home, but Augsburg, we’ve got to use them as an example. They just stand there, and they’ll go and they will win the ball, because that’s what they do. So they’ve got to come up with something a little bit different. You know that they want to go wide, so you just make sure that you just stop it at source, but the amount of good chances, and I’m talking like, let’s use Bayern, because they’re the top of the tree. The little one-twos, the little someone coming close to the ball, but then their mate runs over the back of it.
Alex:
It’s in the quality of the players, also. You’re talking about Bayern, okay, but-
Flash:
No, it’s not always the quality of the player on the ball. It’s the quality of the players that run off the ball to then change the picture. I think that at the moment, they’re too deliberate.
Kevin Hatchard:
But I think that’s a chemistry clash as well, though, isn’t it?
Alex:
Chemistry, yes.
Kevin Hatchard:
Chemistry. I mean, you look at the fact that they lost Wirtz to injury.
Flash:
Yes.
Kevin Hatchard:
They’ve brought in Azmoun. He only came in January, and wasn’t fully fit. He had COVID, then he had another infection that set him back. Hlozek’s only just come in as well. And Alario’s gone. So of that unit, you’ve only really got-
Alex:
Alario is MIA.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, you’ve only really got Schick and Diaby who have played much together. So you’ve got half a front four that just haven’t really played together, so I think that’s part of it as well. I think all of those little one-twos and those tricks and flicks, which Leverkusen are very good at, generally.
Alex:
Yes.
Kevin Hatchard:
That will come, but it will take time, because those players need to play together.
Flash:
Well they just need their so-called leaders to actually stand up, and obviously they need defenders just to defend, and not look pretty and think that they’re better than they are, because I tell you what. They’ve marked space, and as I always say, I’ve never seen space score goals.
Okay, let’s move on and let me get off my pedestal, because you know that Leverkusen frustrate the life out of me. Game number three of five coming up now. Could be a shocker, this one. Schalke at plus 2 10. Thought they would be higher. Union being one of the best sides, outside of obviously Bayern, in the first few weeks, at plus 1 35, which a lot of people would’ve thought would been a little bit shorter. Union, draw no better at minus 1 45. Could be a parlay piece, if you fancy the visitors. I think there could be a little bit of a shock on here, whether it’s just goals, or whether it’s a draw, because a draw is at plus 2 45. Schalke, over to score twice at plus 1 65. Kev, do we see Schalke scoring twice? Do we see over two and half? Because if we do, it’s at minus 1 05.
Kevin Hatchard:
I’m going to keep this fairly simple, Flash, because there was one number that really screamed out at me, and that was backing Union to score twice in the game at plus 1 15, because they have an excellent front two in Sheraldo Becker and Jordan, as we’re now calling him, officially.
Alex:
Jordan? Okay, let’s call him Jordan.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, we’re calling him Jordan. That’s what we’re doing going forward. So Jordan.
Alex:
Okay.
Flash:
Is that with a J?
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, that’s with a J. So Jordan and Sheraldo Becker, playing very well, and you’ve got a very, very solid unit there to back them up. So I think against the Schalke team that has a poor goalkeeper, that has defensive weaknesses, I can see Union scoring a couple. Now what you can then do with that is you can take the emotion out the occasion, because Schalke have a great home crowd. At the moment they’re on the up, because Schalke have had some decent results.
That may change as the season goes on, but you might see what we saw against Borussia Monchengladbach, when they scored a couple of goals and managed to get a two-two draw. But as long as Union score twice, we won’t care. So this is about the attacking strength of Union, which they showed against Leipzig last week. As we said, they shouldn’t have been the outsiders for that game, and I don’t see why Union won’t be able to go there and get a result, and what you won’t get with Union is complacency.
Flash:
Yeah. They’re strong. They’re strong from 1 to 11 in the old numbers. Alex, I do see both teams scoring. I see it over two and half, but the number’s so good at over two and a half, it could bring in the three-nil for Union, because Union are strong right the way across the park.
Alex:
If it was a home game, yeah, I would say a win two-nil here. I wouldn’t expect both teams to score. But Schalke playing at home, like Kev touched on, there they have a really good crowd next to them, but he talked about Union’s attacking firepower. I will talk about their defensive solidity, because my god, they’re very good at the back. I mean, they’re athletic. They don’t have a problem on set pieces. They’re wonderful. They’re a great team to watch. I mean, this is what we love about them. Their fighting spirit. Their attacking firepower, their organization all over the pitch, and yeah, that attacking two there with Siebatcheu… Jordan, sorry, and Becker, are brilliant. I mean, what to expect more from them? They beat Leipzig, well deserved two-one, with the two strikers, with the two forwards scoring a goal each. They kept a clean sheet two rounds ago against Mainz, on the road. We talked about it last week. So I think that if you are looking for them to score twice at plus 1 15, don’t even expect them to concede twice. So we are-
Flash:
Yeah, but it’s different because we’re having this conversation at the chat at the moment, and Christopher comments here, and obviously he’s quite knowledgeable, “If Leipzig can’t score against versus Union, how does Schalke? But Leipzig did score against Union.
Alex:
But I’m not talking about Schalke not to score, though maybe they will score one time, but if you’re expecting, again, you’re expecting Union to score twice, which they should, they have all the necessary weapons to do that, I think that they’ll win the game. I don’t think that they need more than two goals to beat Schalke, even if despite playing on the road.
Flash:
So why have we not gone plus 1 35 then Union? Is it just because something, so Schalke at home with the crowd?
Alex:
Yeah, exactly that.
Kevin Hatchard:
Because I’m happy to spend the fifth of a unit to guard against that happening.
Flash:
True, true.
Kevin Hatchard:
Because then, say Schalke go two-nil up early in the game, you’re not dead then, whereas if [inaudible 00:30:30]-
Flash:
No, you’re not.
Kevin Hatchard:
[inaudible 00:30:31], start, get a couple of goals, there’s every chance that Union, with the fighting spirit, could get back into the game, so I just think if you spending a fifth of a unit as a cover there, that’s fine by me.Flash:
Do we see goals in the first half, lads? Because obviously you know Schalke have got to come out, try and jump all over Union and catch them cold. They can’t play like a chess match, because they will get undone.
Alex:
I think that we’ll say at least one goal, in my opinion, the one goal Asian handicap in the first half is at even money.
Flash:
That’s what I mean. We could see this being one-one at half time, could see it-
Alex:
So if we have only one goal, you will take your stake. You’ll take your money back here, at plus money here, at even money.
Flash:
Yeah, and that’s why I’m mentioning it, because I think it’s almost a shot to nothing. I think it’s almost a guarantee that this is not going to be nil-nil.
Alex:
And another way to go for a parlay piece, in my opinion, is Union Berlin PK minus 1 45 for a parlay piece. I don’t think that they will lose this game, and they’re great for a parlay piece.
Flash:
Well, I was going to say the same, kev, about Schalke not scoring twice at minus 2 10,
Alex:
But what we talked earlier.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah. I think that’s why it’s too short.
Flash:
Okay. No worries. No worries. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks, because myself and Kev have both got involved here. Kev’s gone a bit… Union team total over 1.5 at plus 1 15. I’ve just gone over two and a half goals. Minus 1 05, just to claw a little bit back. Even though I do like both teams to score and over, I’m just guarding against Schalke not scoring. But they’ve got to score. Come on.
Okay, let’s move on to probably the best side we’ve seen in Europe bar none. Bayern versus Gladbach. Bayern minus 500. There’s your parlay piece. Or Bayern minus two and a half at plus 1 15. Gladbach, who knows. Remember Gladbach, they could beat anyone on their day, and this is still relevant. Total is a massive four, so do we see five? Because the favorite is that we are going to see five, and it’s minus 1 25. Team total, Bayern, do they score four, at plus money at plus 1 20. Alex, you can go first here, because Gladbach are a funny old side, but are we just going to see Bayern go from strength to strength and do what they do? Jump out to an early lead and then enjoy themselves?
Alex:
Yeah. Right now Bayern are fighting PSG for the most goals scored by the beginning of the season.
Flash:
Alex, if Bayern played PSG, what way would you go?
Alex:
Bayern all the way. I think that minus… But even City, I think that they will beat City right now. If we’re talking that if the game will happen tomorrow against any of these teams, in any leagues right now at this hour, Bayern should be top of the table right now. So this is why-
Flash:
I still worry about their defense though. I still worry about the defense against a top side.
Alex:
Exactly. Again, again, Gladbach. I’m sure that in the dressing room, they’re talking about Gladbach beating them over and top of last season in the cups, in the domestic league. I’m sure that, “Okay, let’s teach them a lesson. We are great right now. We are scoring goals for fun. The atmosphere is incredible in the dressing room. We have fun playing.” Because this is what impressed me the most at Bayern. They have fun playing. The passing one-two, and the-one on-ones, the dribbles and long passes, and whatever you want, they are doing everything. So they have fun with a laugh on their face, with a smile on their face. I love Bayern playing right now. And I think that they will take a little bit of a revenge here on Gladbach, after what happened last season.
Gladbach, they started the season well. Unbelievably well, in my opinion. They are there in the second place right now on goals difference, because also Union also might have seven points, and I think that Bayern at home should destroy Gladbach.
Flash:
Yeah, I just worry though. Obviously, you know that I’ve gone with Bayern. Listen, they’ve scored a minimum of two in the first half of every single game, and they still want to put that market up of over one and a half team total, which obviously I’ve just got to snap up until it kills me. But when Wolfsburg played against Bayern, they struggled to score them two goals because they all sat in. Are we expecting Gladbach to sit in?
Alex:
But Gladbach are not this type of side, but I will let Kev talk.
Kevin Hatchard:
No, I don’t think they will sit in. I thought this game was really difficult, actually, because you’ve got a Gladbach team that’s made a really good start. It’s keeping possession well. Alassane Plea’s signed a new contract. He looks good. Jonas Hoffman signed a new contract. He looks good. Marcus Thuram’s made a good start. We still don’t know if he’ll be a Gladbach player at the end of the transfer window, but he is either playing for a new contract or playing for a move. And Gladbach have had some great results against Bayern in recent years. They wiped the floor with them in the cup last season. It could be more.
Flash:
One in six, Bayern have won. One in six.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, and I do think that’s relevant, because I think time and time again, we’ve come up to these games and thought, well actually, Bayern are on great form, they should win, but Gladbach do seem to raise their game. So this was what I stepped away from for that reason, because I could see anything. If you were to tell me, “Oh, Gladbach won the game two-one,” I wouldn’t be massively surprised because it’s just the narrative of this game has been that Gladbach spring a surprise, and we do have to caveat it slightly with the league win in Munich last season.
Alex:
Well do you think that’s plus 2.5 on Gladbach is a value bet?
Kevin Hatchard:
Not at minus 1 35. Not a minus 1 35. I think if that was a little bit bigger, I’d be tempted. I have to say.
Flash:
Well what about plus two, being a push? You get plus 100 a plus two.
Kevin Hatchard:
The problem you’ve got is that you never know when Bayern are going to be able to cut loose. So this is exactly what I’m saying, that if you told me Gladbach had snuck a two-one, then I’d say, “Fine.” If you told me Bayern won five-nil, equally I’d say, “Oh right, I can see how that happened as well.” So whenever I can see a lot of realistic outcomes, that always concerns me a bit.
Flash:
Yeah, and this is where I’m still happy to go with Bayern in this occasion. I can speak to both of you and you can both have your opinion, but as I keep going back to, movement kills talent, right? And these Gladbach defenders are straight line defenders who want to battle, who want someone to mark. They’ll go and head it, they clear it. If I was doing a scouting report, the Gladbach defenders, they play in straight lines. Bayern, at the moment, we’ve got obviously, and please, we’ve got Leroy, Mane, Gnabry, Coman. We’ve got boys running from midfield. We’ve got boys that can pick a pass. I just think that Gladbach are not going to see them coming. But do we see Gladbach scoring? Because Bayern to win and both teams to score, that may be a better price altogether.
Kevin Hatchard:
I think that’d be the way to go. I think you are going to, yeah, that’s probably one of the most attractive options. Or you double up, both teams to score with the goalscorer bet, and you pick one of the Bayern forwards to score. I don’t think that’ll get you a decent price. So I think that’s probably how you approach it, is you pick a Bayern player to score, and you go for both teams to score on top of that.
Flash:
Okay. Just to also remind people in the chat that they must be enjoying the show a lot, because we’ve got a hundred watching live, but 33% of you have put the thumbs up. The rest, you’re just sitting back and enjoying it too much. Hey, have a bit of participation, and press the thumbs up, please. Por favor. Gracias. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks, because I tell you what, Bayern versus Gladbach is an absolute massive game for both, because one wants to continue, and one wants to show that their flukes, are not one-offs. First half, Bayern, team total over one and a half at plus 1 15. Thanks, graphics team, because I forgot to put on the team total. Bayern team total over three and half at plus 1 20. Okay.
Alex:
If it ain’t broke, don’t mess it up.
Flash:
Yeah, I think that’s all right.
Alex:
And I think that also against Wolfsburg, two-zero, you would see the score and you would expect, okay, Wolfsburg defended well, but how many great opportunities they had to score also in that match? Also, someone mentioned, Christopher mentioned that Mane was offsite by a hair on the second call he was supposed to score. So I think that there is plenty of firepower there in the attack. The movement, like you said, the ball moving continuously in that attacking line.
Flash:
And forward as well.
Alex:
I think they will catch Gladbach off guard here. I don’t think that Gladbach’s defenders will expect. I know that they will watch every match that Bayern has played up till now, but they are not expecting the storm to come over them. And they’re not the same defensive side, like Wolfsburg, for example. Gladbach loves to play open, so I think that Bayern will score a ton of goals, also here. Because let’s not forget that the Champion’s League is coming in two weeks time, right, in two, three weeks time, and it’s very important for these big clubs to maximize the gap at the top of the table in their domestic league, because after that they will play every three days, so they will start to rotate the team little by little. And it’s important to have this gap to ensure their-
Flash:
It is for Bayern, because every game in the Champions League-
Alex:
It’s huge.
Flash:
… is like a Super Cup game.
Alex:
Exactly.
Flash:
Apart from obviously when they played Plzan. But Kev, Alex has thrown me now, talking about the Champions League. What about Musiala? Where do we know, where is he at the moment?
Kevin Hatchard:
Well, it was just a precaution last week, so I imagine he’d be back in action.
Flash:
He’ll be Gladbach’s worst nightmare at the moment, because he is going to commit defenders, slip the ball off, and then they’ll flick it through. We call it like a one-three. He passes the ball, he runs off, and then the defenders think he’s going to go for the one-two, but the ball goes to the preferred man runner, and then he squares it to the original. It’s brilliant to watch. I absolutely love it. Anyway, you’ve got our official picks. Plus 1 15, for Bayern to score twice, a minimum on first half, and Bayern to score four minimum at plus 1 20.
Let’s move on to our fifth and final game. Because Alex will be screaming at the TV, because it’s Bremen. Werder Bremen versus Frankfurt. Normally we just say Werder Bremen two, and then Frankfurt, well, anything could be happening with them. But Bremen at plus 1 50. Frankfurt plus 1 70. This always tells me, you look straight at a bottom of the page, what price is the draw? The draw is at plus 2 75. Bremen to score twice is at minus 1 05. Frankfurt to score twice is at plus 1 05. Alex, you go first here, because I know that you are frustrated by Frankfurt. Yes, they’ve lost some personnel, but they’re a little bit in the Leverkusen camp for me. They’re just not doing it.
Alex:
They lost even the personnel that is in the graphic right now on the screen.
Flash:
Well that’s to make them feel better.
Alex:
Exactly. No, I think that they want to make me feel better with my cousin being here.
Flash:
Are you out of that picture? Are you holding his hand, or is that a wedding picture or something?
Alex:
No. So, I think that I will keep fading Eintracht Frankfurt until I will receive some results here. I think that Werder were excellent against Dortmund. They really deserved to come back, historically come back from two goals down in the last 10 minutes of the game, in the last, I don’t know how many, 10, probably together with the injury time. They score goals, and they scored seven goals, at least twice in every single match. Eintracht are struggling at the back. They conceded eight. They are nowhere to be found. They’re MIA right now. They are still celebrating, probably, the Europa League win, and if they will continue to celebrate that win, they will struggle again to make it to the European competitions at the end of the season. I don’t think that it will be a lot of time till they will win this game, but I will still fade them on the road here. And the Wolfsburg pick here at minus 1 20 seems like a great set of odds in my opinion.
Flash:
Not as much as the ones that I’m just stealing. By the way, I do this sometimes. The boys are chatting, and I’ve just sneaked off to place one. I’ve just took Werder money line at plus 1 50, Kev. I mean, I’ve got to admit that if Alex is going against Frankfurt, then I certainly can.
Kevin Hatchard:
Yeah, look, I think this is about goals. I’ve been very surprised by how Bremen have been able to score goals consistently. We saw them get a couple of goals in that game against Wolfsburg, for example, when I thought they might struggle in that game, but they got a couple of goals in that one. Scored three against Dortmund, and they’ll be full of confidence, and Oliver Burke has got a couple of very important late goals now. He’s playing well.
Ole Werner has got them playing some really front foot football, so you have to give him credit for that, because it would’ve been very easy to try and dig results out in the opening weeks of the season, but they haven’t done that. Marvin Ducksch has got a point to prove at this level. Niklas Fullkrug’s got a point to prove at this level. Oliver Burke has too, and I think we’re seeing that, we’re seeing that extra motivation.
I don’t think Frankfurt will be this bad for long, but I think defensively they’re all over the shop at the moment. And so I think, again, similar to the Union Schalke thing, really, I’m just going to go for WD to score a couple of goals at minus 1 05, because Frankfurt do have plenty of attacking talent, you never quite know if they’re going to cut loose and we could see a two-two, or something like that. So I’m going to go for Bremen to score a couple here.
Flash:
Alex, are you tempted to add here and go with Bremen against Frankfurt? We know you love Frankfurt, but surely you love money more?
Alex:
Yeah, I would go with Bremen on with PK at minus 1 20, but I think that the best bet for this one is Bremen to score at least twice on their own at minus 1 05, so over 1.5 total team calls for Wolfsburg. They showed up in every single round that they’re capable of scoring goals. They’re pressing high. They were absolutely amazing against Dortmund. Again, Eintracht is struggling right now, so why not to fade a team that is still struggling, like Leverkusen, like Eintracht right now. Unbelievable that we are talking about three top teams in Bundesliga, and the rest, Mainz, Freiburg, Union are top of the table. They’re next to Bayern Munich. So I will completely fade Frankfurt here, but didn’t make them my top four picks. But I would-
Flash:
Yeah, well that’s what I did. I didn’t go too mad. I only had a few picks, knowing I wanted to get involved. And I’ve just asked the chat and they can let me know if you don’t, Alex. I’ve gone for Bremen to win and both teams to score. This could easily be a nice little, two-one home win.
Alex:
What do you think, what is the prop for Bremen to score twice, guys?
Flash:
Minus 1 05.
Alex:
Yeah. What do you think of it?
Kevin Hatchard:
Well, that’s my pick.
Flash:
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So hold on. Hold on a minute. Do you see what he’s done there? He’s just, he’s in an argument, and he knows that someone agrees with him, so he’s just brought him back round the side there. That’s his main pick. His main pick of the week is Bremen.
Alex:
I’m sorry.
Flash:
As if you didn’t even know.
Alex:
Yeah, let’s put two units on this one. I think that is brilliant, brilliant.
Flash:
You want to join in then?
Alex:
No, no, no, no.
Flash:
So you don’t like.
Alex:
No, because I have four already. I don’t want to go to-
Flash:
Okay, and I would suggest, and obviously I’m going with Bremen just to win the game at plus 1 50, but if you are a bit braver, you can go Bremen to win, and both teams to score, and it’s massive at plus 2 70. Okay, let’s get the official picks up, because that’s the five games done. We will then go on to a Q&A, because there’ll be no prop of the week, so the producer can just fling past that. Bremen team total over one and a half at minus 1 05, and I’ve added Bremen at money line at plus 1 50.
Okay, so you get yourself ready for your questions for the geniuses, and I’ll remind you to and ask and request that you subscribe. Massive response yesterday from the subscription questions. Now we’d like you also to ring the bell. Ring the bell means that I’ll notify you, and you’ll never miss any content again. If you’re on social media, then make sure you follow @BetUSTV. So many sports coming on. Today typifies it. We start with Bundesliga, then we have MLB. Then we go to Saratoga for the Travers Stakes, which is at group one, and then we kick off at Flushing Meadow with the US Open. No Djokovic. Make sure you tune in at five o’clock Eastern, there as well. And then on Monday, it’s Premier League, Serie A, and the Champions League Futures show, which is going to be great, because there’s so many little sides that could actually go a little bit further. Okay, Sean Mac, saying to Kev, “Thomas Muller, assist.”
Kevin Hatchard:
Yes. I mean, I love the assist market. I don’t know if we’ve got that available, but I always think that that’s-
Flash:
Yeah. Come on Sean. Why are you asking about markets that might not be available? He’s just causing trouble.
Kevin Hatchard:
I do like the assist market, personally.
Flash:
Oh, okay. And you do as well? Okay, that means that’s another thing. Okay, Barcaman saying, “Alex, Hertha versus Dortmund. Hertha could get their first win of the season.
Alex:
Oh my god. It’s so complicated for Dortmund right now. Adeyemi is still out. Marco Reus’s calf injury, questionable for this match. I don’t know. I think that Dortmund should win this game, but I will never take them at 1.65. Come on.
Flash:
Okay, and now just Gooner. Goonerfirms21. “Is anyone listening to me? Everyone going for Man Utd and over one and a half cards.” So what you’re doing, Gooner, is you’re going into an Italian restaurant and ordering Chinese. Okay? Because this is the Bundesliga show, and if you wanted to know about Man Utd, you would’ve watched the Premier League show. Do I think they get two cards? Well, I thought they’d get three the other night, and yes, I think they’ll get two. All right? So I’ve looked after you there.
Jojo says, “Avoid Dortmund.” Okay. I think everyone should be… Okay. That’s all good. Okay, remember if you press the link in the description, that will help you enter into the shirts contest. Remember you’ve got maybe three, for shows to go. Okay, the best bets please?
DJSimpson says that, “Muller at minus 1 50 for an assist. No thank you.”
Kevin, here we go. Grifo hats, plus 1 50. That’s Grifo anytime scorer at plus 1 50. Alex, Freiburg, halftime full-time, at plus 1 15. Freiburg, halftime, plus 1 05 for me. Bremen team total at minus 1 05. Union team total over 1.5 at plus 1 15. For Kev and Alex, has gone Mainz team total over 1.5 at plus 1 10. Mainz and Leverkusen, both teams to score and over two and half, better known as the Alex Classic, at minus 1 25. Bayern team total over three and a half. He’s going for the four. It is one of those. You got to keep riding the train until it stops. And I’ve added one on there. It’s Bremen to win, on the money line at plus 1 50. Okay.
Alex:
Bremen you went with, or you went with someone? Bremen you went for?
Flash:
Sorry?
Alex:
Bremen you went for?
Flash:
Yeah, Bremen. Werder. Werder to win, money line. Slipped it in there. Plus 1 50, thinking that if Kev can have his little plus 1 50 winners, I’ve got to join him. You know what I mean? I can’t let him just keep having all these plus 1 50s. And I think they will score twice, as well, so I think that would be good enough against a Frankfurt side. No, they’re like, remember the spud guns? You remember them? You put the gun in the spud and then you fire it, and it just don’t even hurt when they hit you. That’s Frankfurt at the moment. Okay, Kev, go well with your shows. Remember, don’t celebrate too hard when Freiburg score early.
Kevin Hatchard:
No, I’ll try not to.
Flash:
And we want goals as well in Schalke. Schalke is going to be a great game. Are you going to be there or are you? What a great effort. Okay. Alex, no late goals for you. I want it all sorted. If you want goals, I want them early, all right?
Alex:
Early, early on. I want Bayern Munich to score four in the first half and finished four-three, if they want.
Flash:
Good lad, good lad. Everyone in the chat, remember, press your thumbs up on the way out. We’re at less than 50%. It’s either or lazy, or your thumbs are not working. All right. So from everyone at BetUS, may all your bets be winners. We look forward to seeing you again on Monday. Don’t forget, later on today, if you’re into horse racing, we’ve got the Travers Stakes, and if you’re into your tennis, it’s the final Grand Slam of the year. Ciao.
Alex:
Ciao.
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