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Bundesliga Picks Matchday 8 | Bundesliga Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

 

Flash:

Welcome to BetUS Soccer Channel. I’m Flash, and it’s the Bundesliga show Match Day Eight, and that creeped right up on me, so that means, I probably can’t even hear my producer. Let me get you right up to date with what’s going on. We’ve got six games to take you through. But first of all, we’re America’s favorite sportsbook, so I’d like you to subscribe. Also, I’d like you to ring the bell. Ring the bell means, you’ll never miss any content again, on Monday Champions League. But now it’s all about building up for the World Cup, because we’re not going to have a break. We’re going to have Champions League, domestic, Champions League, domestic and then before you know it we will be right in there. If you are on social media then, please follow @BetUSTV. Because any late updates, changes to lineups, that’ll be the place that we’ll let you know as well as every other sport that we cover here on BetUS.

You go to the link in the description, press that, join, and then you’ll go into the draw for shirts. I was meant to give away four last month I tried, but the fourth member who we selected didn’t get back to me. So, okay, your hard luck. Five, this month, so I’ll do five. So it’ll be your last chance today, and then I’ll let you know early part of next week. We’re going to have the records, we’re going to have the Q&A get yourselves into the chat and make sure that you give us what your thoughts are, because at the moment Bundesliga is a real, real minefield. Let me introduce the two absolute experts. I’ve got the voice of European soccer in Kevin Hatchard, and golden balls himself, at Alex Classic Tips. And I’ll tell you what, sorry.

Alex:

Not us, the producer. Okay.

Flash:

Okay. It’s all gone to some gremlins today for some reason, but don’t worry, I’m happy with the gremlins. Soon, it’ll be Christmas, and we’ll be able to watch them for real. Okay Kev, let’s talk about some of these teams, because I’m looking, I’m thinking okay, I’ve got Union Berlin up there, I’ve got Freiburg up there, and then I’ve got teams like by Bayern Munich who haven’t won in four.

Kevin:

Yeah. I don’t think it’ll stay that way for long, but it’s nice while it lasts. I think if you look at Bayern, it’s quite an unusual situation for them. It’s the first time they’ve gone without a win in four games in the league for 20 years. But you look at the performances individually and they’re not that bad. You look at the game against Augsburg, they had lots of chances. When it was nil-nil, didn’t manage to get the winning goal. And then you look at the situation in Stuttgart, gave up play penalty. Should have gone on and won that game. So it’s a really strange situation for them. Because if you look at the first three games, they massively outperform their XG. They scored 15 goals, across those first three league games. The rest of it, they’ve only scored four goals in the last four games, well under. I think that’s going to flatten out. I think they’re going to score lots of goals, so I think it’s going to be absolutely fine for them in the end.

Flash:

I know it is strange when you look at, like RB Leipzig, loss, win, loss, win, or win, loss, win, loss. It’s like, just no one can seem to really get a handle on where they’re at. Alex, the other one is, let me just tell you this, seven of nine games in their last, which was match day seven went under, and four of them were draws.

Alex:

Yeah, it’s unreal what is happening in Bundesliga, like you said at the beginning of the show. Porto are thinking for us during the show, and that’s a great thing. That means that the sun will be up starting match day eight. It’s been pretty rough for me personally, and I’m trying to.. The international break came at the perfect moment to understand a little bit what these teams are doing, how they will approach the next games for the World Cup. But we are back today with surprising leaders, Union Berlin with Bayern Munich five points behind them, with Dortmund not performing well but still sitting second there, that’s a big surprise for me. And Bochum finally won their first point, and what, against Köln. Unreal.

Flash:

And you look at, it seems like, Augsburg can’t buy a win, can’t get a goal, and then they’ve round back to back wins. Can I just ask my producer please to mute his headset, because I’m hearing everybody in the office. And by the way there’s a million of them. Okay, so let’s have a little look at the records, because your presenter had three selections. I’m hearing all sorts of gremlins, and it’s really offputting to be honest. We had a draw, and we had two +200 at 7.55. Just to look at the total though of the team, at 0.58 after seven weeks, let’s kick on from there now. And let’s get straight into it, please. Let’s have a little look at game number one. Because the game number one is going to come. Are you doing this game, Kev?

Kevin:

Yeah, I am. And I’m very much looking forward to it, because you’ve got two clubs who are under pressure, two coaches who are under pressure. Gerardo Seoane, the Leverkusen coach has been told by the CEO of the club, that he’s firmly in the saddle, but the horse looks very ill at the moment quite frankly. Because Leverkusen have made their worst start for 40 years. They again, a little bit like, Bayern have made lots of chances, not made the most of them. If you look at Patrik Schick, for example, who’s their star striker, He got 24 goals in Bundesliga last season. He massively overperformed his XG, last season. He was 5.1 up on what he was supposed to get. This season he’s 1.9 down. And it just shows you the swing that they’ve had, in terms of their lack of a clinical edge in attack.

I think in the long run they’ll be okay too, but I thought it was really interesting that their midfield of Roberts Andrich, said this week, look, we’re in a dangerous position, and if this carries on, we’re going to be in a relegation battle whether we like it or not. And that’s something Leverkusen have suffered in the last few years. They have had moments where the nearly went down. So the next few weeks are very, very important for them. But this does feel to a certain extent like a free hit, because Bayern is still rightly the firm favorites.

Flash:

They are, let’s have a little look straight at a numbers. The game is Bayern versus Leverkusen, it’s on Friday night. Bayern at -290, Leverkusen massive +650. But Bayern -1.5, at -1.25 looks like for me the way to go. Draw is at +500. Some people will be on that, because they’re not quite sure of what Bayern are going to give. I’d be more interested Alex, in what are Leverkusen going to give. And the Leverkusen at +180, not to score.

Alex:

Besides that, 1-1 draw last season, in the last head to head, Bayern have the tendency to score many, many goals against the Leverkusen, because I think that the Leverkusen is one of the best opponents, the perfect opponents for their tactics. Leverkusen love to play positive football. They love to attack, they will leave a lot of gaps at the back. Is not like they don’t know how to defend, but against the teams like Bayern, they really, really should have a defensive approach. Because if they lay open today against Bayern, they will concede many, many goals. May I’m expecting also an answer from this Leverkusen ever cause side. I don’t expect them to win this match, but really I’m expecting them to at least find the back of the net. I think that this will be in case of disappointing match of, I don’t know, three, four goals difference.

I think that this is the last match of Seoane. If they will pull off the upset, we might see, Thomas Tuchel replacing Nagelsmann at Bayern Munich. I think that this is the first option that Bayern board are thinking when they will suck Tuchel, if that will happen. When they will Nagelsmann, sorry. I think that, this is a must win for, Bayern. They already have five points behind the Union Berlin. I know that Union Berlin will start losing points, and the gap will minimize, and all that. You see the problems they have in the European competitions, they lost both matches. I’m talking about Union Berlin. On the other side, Leverkusen, I think that they will score, but I think that the Bayern will destroy them. I see a 4/5-1 to be honest.

Flash:

Yeah. I can see that too. Kevin, Leverkusen is just all over the shore, at the back. There’s big gaps. They do not look like a steady unit. And then going forward-

Alex:

That was worst defense, in Bundesliga after [inaudible 00:09:19]

Flash:

Yeah. They just don’t look right. It’s almost like the ball goes into the box, and it’s like, oh no you go. Whereas, I’ve always been taught that the defender attacks the ball. Whoever can win it, go and win it. Don’t worry about it. But they are so, so, disjointed.

Kevin:

Yeah. I think this is structural problem. I think they overcommit sometimes in attack. I think we’ve seen that quite a lot. I think they ask their center backs to do a lot. Guys like Jonathan Tah and Edmond Tapsoba, I don’t think either of those guys are playing as well as they can right now. I’ve said to you guys a lot, that I worry about the goalkeeper. I don’t think Lukáš Hrádecký is of the quality required for a club that’s in the champion’s league. He signed a new contract, they always talk about what a good leader he is. Always talk about how vocal he is, but I just simply don’t think he’s good enough for commanding enough goalkeeper, for Leverkusen to really succeed in the long term. If you look at the goal they gave away against Werder Bremen, in that one-all draw last time out, it was an appalling piece of goalkeeping.

Because you made a great save initially, pushed the ball up in the air, but then panicked and just poured it down into the floor and Veljkovic scored. So I think that’s an issue. I think if you were going to have a play here, Bayern to win, and both teams to score, is the way to go. Bayern don’t keep many clean sheets. Haven’t kept many clean sheets at home, in the Bundesliga in the last few games. So I think that would be the way I would go. I could see Leverkusen scoring, but I think Bayern will win the game.

Flash:

What about Musiala, anytime goal scorer?

Kevin:

Yeah. Look and I certainly wouldn’t… I think that’s another way to go, because I think Mané is -110, and I think, he hasn’t scored at home yet, but he’s going to come good. That’s just going to happen. Serge Gnabry, I think is +100. So I think there’s an opportunity there. My only worry about Musiala is, he’s just been away with Germany, he’s just played against England’s international break’s tricky one. I was at Wembley, I thought he had a quiet first half and then really came alive. So I think Bayern are going to be fine in this one. I think Bayern, as Alex says, tactically it works for them.

Alex:

Kevin, please tell me if you heard anything, I was reading many articles over the last two weeks about this, Sadio Mané problem, that it’s hard for him to adapt, that he doesn’t have a lot of friends there, that he’s kind of not happy. Is that all true, or speculations and-

Kevin:

I don’t think so. I don’t think so. I think it’s stuff that you always see in tabloids, when a player isn’t doing well. If you look at the way he started the season, he was doing brilliantly. He scored in that five three winning against Leipzig. In the Super Cup, he scored in the 6-1 win. Against Frankfurt, then he scored in that 7-0 win against Bochum, and everything was going well. He’s had a few games without a goal, suddenly it’s news. And what you find in Germany is that, Bayern, when things aren’t going well, are the only show in town. So then that’s a lot of column inches to fill. I think he’s a pro. I think he’ll be absolutely fine. I think he’ll score lots of goals this season. And I think in terms of him being consistent, that will come.

Flash:

Yeah and he’ll be a weapon in the World Cup as well. That is for sure. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official Soccer picks and remember what price did you say Musiala, was, Kev?

Alex:

Around +130.

Kevin:

Yeah. Yeah. So I certainly wouldn’t put anybody off that. As I said, my only reservation was, he’s just been away with Germany. Played a crazy game against England on Monday. So that would be my only caveat, because of course we’re only four days after that.

Flash:

Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks. Because it’s Bayern -1.5. I think they win by two clear goals at -125. I don’t think, Leverkusen have even got a leader, at the moment. I think it’s all looking over their shoulder, like, Oh you do it, you don’t it, no. They end up no one does it. Bayern at over 3.5, at +120. It looks like a good one for Alex. Remember Kev, has abandoned Musiala, but he says, you could still have it at +130. And Kev’s going to enjoy this game, as well.

Let’s go on to game and number two. Because it’s ninth place Köln, and that’s one defeat in their last five hosting Dortmund, who you just don’t know what you’re going to get. That Köln, are a massive +235 at home, and -125 double chance. Dortmund are at +105. The under or overs is set at three, with the under being the favorite, at -115, the draw. I think it’s a real runner here. The draw is a real runner at +310. Alex?

Alex:

Yeah, I can’t trust Dortmund, this season. I told you, despite being second there in the standings, I think that they are overachievers. I think that this is not correct what we see in the standings, they should be lower than that. There is no reason to be happy with their performance this term. Marco Reus, is obviously out with injury. Schlotterbeck was about to end… How you say. What was his name? His colleague, Bellingham season, with that fault in England versus Germany. That was a rough one. He was inches away from finishing his season, I’m telling you. Two colleagues from the same club, and you know how important Bellingham is for Dortmund. I think that is one of the most important players in the team.

Yes, Dortmund are not receiving so many goals as usual. They improved at the back during the summer transfer window. Köln at home against Dortmund, are really, really good lately. And I don’t expect they will lose this one. As you said, Köln just one defeat in seven games, all season long. And that game against leaders, Union Berlin, because we have to talk about the new leaders right now. So yeah, I think that Dortmund will return empty handed.

Flash:

Do you think Dortmund will score though, Alex?

Alex:

Yeah, I think that we’ll see a draw with goals probably, like 1-1. I’m a little bit scared about this, because I really like this Dortmund youngsters, from the middle and up. But I think that Köln can cope up with the pressure. Köln, playing at home, the atmosphere in Cologne, is amazing. I think that they can do it. A draw at halftime, looks like a good option in my opinion. Maybe a draw at full-time too, maybe under three goals, on the Asian handicap, because I think that Köln will have a defensive approach. I don’t think that Dortmund have the power right now, to score more than twice on their own. So under three looks good also, in my opinion.

Flash:

Yeah. Kev, I quite like the Dortmund not to score twice in this game, at +100. But the draw just seems like +310, it’s a real runner. I expect it’s going to be very tight and listen, I’m not going to oppose Köln at home, at any time.

Kevin:

Yeah. I can understand the lure of the draw. It’s always a decent price. I prefer to get a couple of results on the side, so I’m just happy to go against Dortmund, here because I just think +105’s too short. I think, if you look at the injuries they’ve got, it’s not just Marco Reus, Gio Reyna’s out. Got a couple of other players out as well. Gregor Kobel, the goalkeeper’s out. I’m not convinced about Alexander Meyer, at all. He had nothing to do against, Schalke in the Revierderby. Just before the international break, he met an absolute mess of the equalizer. Manchester City scored in the Champions League game. And this is a guy that was playing second tier football Jahn Regensburg, last season. So he’s effectively the third choice goalkeeper.

I think Alex is right. I think there’ll be a great atmosphere at the RheinEnergieStadion, there always is. But especially when Dortmund, come to town. It’s not a derby, but there isn’t a big distance between Dortmund and Cologne. It’s only an hour and a bit on the train. So I do think this is a game that Köln, will be desperate to perform well in. The other thing to bear in mind as well, is that Köln have a couple of… Yeah there’s not just Modeste, but Salih Özcan, so they’re both coming back, so that will give Köln a bit of extra motivation to perform well against those guys. So I think, it’s going to be a really interesting game. And I just think Dortmund, are just above evens, that’s not for me.

Alex:

I’m wondering how they didn’t sign in the contract, how they didn’t stipulate in the contract that Modeste is not playing against us, when we’re playing against each other.

Kevin:

Well that might not be an issue, because he’s only scored the once, since he went to Dortmund. He’s worked hard. Dave tried to modify the game plan, to get him a few more crosses. But he’s scored that winner against Hertha, and hasn’t scored at all. And actually he might not start, because Youssoufa Moukoko, scored the winner against Schalke, became the youngest scorer in Revierderby history in doing so. He’s been jumping at the beat for a while now, and I see no reason why they wouldn’t start with him.

Flash:

Yeah, they do need a spark. There so many of these sides, Kev and Alex, that they’re looking for someone else to take the mantle of being the star man, and being the leader. There was a time in the Premier League when you look round, and going, hang on a minute, who is the actual leader? Who’s the tallies man in this side? And I look at Dortmund, and I think, you take Bellingham out there. There’s not a lot. And it is quite shocking that we are looking at side that-

Alex:

Bellingham is the second leader. Bellingham is the second leader after Marco Reus. You cannot-

Flash:

Yeah, I’m not so sure. Marco Reus is still [inaudible 00:19:22] for me, he don’t do it on a weekly basis.

Alex:

Yeah. I understand what the leader on the field is, obviously Marco Reus. If you are on the field… Why is Harry McGuire the leader? Why he was the leader of in this United team-

Flash:

Of what?

Alex:

… And England team.

Flash:

He’s in the stand, he doesn’t even get a game-

Alex:

Now. Now.

Flash:

You talking about when he was on the pitch.

Alex:

One, two years ago, who was the leader on the pitch?

Kevin:

I think it’s interesting what you say about Reus, actually. Because I think if you look at Reus’ numbers over the last year, they are wildly good. Really, really impressive.

Flash:

Yeah. But I see Dortmund as flat track bullies, Kev. I see it, when everything’s going right, then they’re okay. But as soon as everything goes wrong, I don’t see anyone like a Roy Keane, or a Kimmich-

Kevin:

Yeah. But I think that’s what they’re trying to change. I think, actually if you look at their side now, there are a lot more characters. I think if you look at Kobel, he’s a commanding goalkeeper. He’s injured at the moment, but I think in general he’s the kind of commanding goalkeeper they’ve lacked in recent years. I don’t think Roman Bürki, was ever that guy.

I think Hummels is a leader. I know you’re not a big fan and I understand that but he’s a leader-

Flash:

He looks fit, though. Give him a bit of credit. I think he looks fitter this year than he has for the last two.

Kevin:

Yeah. And I think he’s been pushed by the fact that Süle and Schlotterbeck have arrived. I’m a massive fan of Schlotterbeck, in terms of personality. I think Dortmund fans are going to love him, and I think he’s the future captain of that club personally. Salih Özcan, just does his work. He’s somebody that I think can really give them a bit of momentum in Midfields. Bellingham for me, if Hummels doesn’t start on Saturday, Bellingham will be the captain-

Alex:

Of course. 1000%.

Kevin:

He’s the third captain, so he would lead the side at the age of 19. So that’s incredible really-

Alex:

And I understand that you have a point about, Moukoko. I think that they should bench Modeste, against his former club, because Moukoko, is more pacey, he goes more into combination with his teammates. He doesn’t need only aerial balls. Modeste, is their nine striker, he has to be there in the middle, and take the balls. But Moukoko is very fast. I love him. And he’s young. And what a team Dortmund will have in two years if they will not lose anyone. With the other one, what is his name? Bynoe-Gittens, also who is injured for this match. Also that is an interesting one.

Kevin:

Yeah. So I do think with me Moukoko, he came on against Schalke, and changed the game, within… They barely created a thing really. Schwolow, made some good saves. But he did change the dynamic completely, and they got lots pace in that attack.

Flash:

Yeah, the bottom line is you can talk up Dortmund, as much as you like, but let’s have a little look at the official picks. Because none of us want to be with them, which is an absolute scandal.

Alex:

We talk like 10 minutes about Dortmund.

Flash:

Exactly.

Alex:

We are [inaudible 00:22:21] them.

Flash:

How? We’re looking at Dortmund at plus money, and yet we’re all running a mile. Köln, +0.5, which is double chance at -125, for both the experts tells you everything. Remember Köln, ninth place, one defeat in seven, and they’re at home. Oh, tricky old game.

Let’s move on finally, to game number three. Oh, Leipzig can’t put two results together at -400. Bochum +900. Flat track bully time, this one. Leipzig, have got a win by two clear goals. And then you’ve got to pay the dues at -140. Draw is at +600. Bochum, not to score, -105. You can go over this one Kev, because I’m not sure Bochum’s scoring. And I thought that -105, might be the way to go.

Kevin:

Possibly. As you know I don’t like that bet.

Flash:

No, you don’t.

Kevin:

But I can understand why you would go for it, because Bochum, have only scored five goals in seven games. They’ve changed their coach. So Thomas Letsch has come in. Now he’s the guy that did pretty well with Vitesse, in the Netherlands. He’s a guy that does know German football. He is a German. He’s worked as a coach for 25 years, but he is got a hell of a job. I think he’s got the weakest squads in the division to work with. They’ve conceded a huge number of goals. The worst tally in the league. Bochum have lost every single game they’ve ever played against Leipzig. And I do think this is really tough for them. Because he’s saying all the right things, Letsch, about communication, about cohesion, and that’s fine, but it’s not a good side. And I do think Leipzig, for all the problems they’ve had this season, I think Marco Rose will get them moving.

I think there’s too much attacking quality for Bochum, to deal with. And this is one of those games where, when the market’s such a mismatch, that’s when you turn to the anytime goal scores, because I think you’ve got Werner, at around -110, you’ve got Nkunku at evens. Szoboszlai, I think is +130. So they’re the ones you look to, because if you think that Leipzig, are going to win the game, and you think they’re going to score a couple of goals, then just go for one of those. I think that’s the way you go. And because generally can’t be trusted at the moment, fine if Nkunku scores, then they draw 2-2, then they come away with it with no problems.

Flash:

I think Leipzig will score three here, Alex.

Alex:

I think that they can score even five, if you ask me. I think that they’re hungry for goals. I think that this is a perfect opponent to start after the international break, and to add some points to their season tally. I think that they’re missing the wins. I think that, this is a perfect, perfect sport. Home against Bochum. The worst team, that they were so lucky. Imagine my luck last round when Bochum scored, and it wasn’t a goal, it was an own goal. Zero shots on target. 1-1 against Köln. 18 goal attempts from Köln. Only one… This is unlucky. If this is not unlucky, what is it? Own goal, zero shots on target, and it finishes 1-1. But we will take it, because the season is long as you said, eight round right now. I think that RB Leipzig, will destroy Bochum.

I’m not a big fan of Rose. I was never a big fan of Rose. I don’t know exactly, I don’t understand the style of play, a little bit. I have to see more games from Leipzig. But in terms of quality, the difference between the two sides is huge. Like three, four classes. And yes, Bochum has a new coach, but this coach, I think that not only has the worst squad in the league, like Kev, said. I think he needs a lot of time to prepare them, and to implement his tactics, and to add a little bit of confidence, because confidence is zero, is on the ground for that team. They know their limits, they know that they’ll go in the second division at the end of the season, is right there.

So I think that either, the new coach will say to them, listen, maybe we will go down, but let’s do it in style. Let’s enjoy every single moment on the pitch, no matter the opponent. If he doesn’t talk like that to them, and he will say, okay let’s win this game, because we are better, and… No. This is not the type of team that you can talk like that if you’re a coach with them. But again Leipzig, should destroy them. 4/5-0. I don’t see Bochum scoring, but like Kev said, I hate the win to nil, market.

Flash:

Yeah. You got Leipzig, win to nil at +110. You’ve got plus one… Sorry was it -105 for Bochum, just not to score. But you’ve also got maybe -1.5, at -14. I can’t go near Leipzig. I think Leipzig will score three, so that’s at -110. I’ve got -105 at Bochum. Sleepy Toast in the chat, he’s trying to get his message across, because he is like, penalty awarded +120. And then he says, “I smell a penalty.” Then he is like, I read it, I read it, Sleepy, but I’m not going to interrupt Alex and Kev. So I think Sleepy Toast, he expects that there to be penalty. I like the way you maybe go over a couple of gold scorers. Maybe Leipzig, to score in both halves, Kev?

Kevin:

Yeah. It could be. But again, I think if you think Leipzig, are going to win big, I think prices wise, that anytime goal scorer market is the way to go, because you can come up with a number of options, but I just think that… And Nkunku’s an interesting one, because people will look at it and think he’s gone cold, because he hasn’t scored in the last five. I think what’s happened is, there’s been a readjustment. I think he’s played a little bit wider at times, but I don’t think that’s necessarily a bad thing. He’s getting into good positions. I think they’ll be absolutely fine. I think Bochum, are really going to struggle to deal with his movement. I think they’ll struggle to deal with, whether it’s André Silver or whether it’s Timo Werner, I think Leipzig, are going to be able to break that door down. So the only thing I don’t trust right now is, Leipzig’s defensive side of things. So-

Flash:

That’s why you’d stay clear from the clean sheet?

Kevin:

Yeah, yeah.

Flash:

Yes that’s fair. Because as I said, I remember Bochum, having four or five golden opportunities against Bayern Munich, as well. No, they didn’t take them, but you keep going in there, you are going to get the rubber, the green at some stage. Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because Alex has gone Leipzig, half time, full time at -140, which is same price as the -1.5. Nkunku anytime goal score at +20. For me, I’ve left it alone. I think it’s one of those, where I may well just… I might go with Leipzig team too. I think they score three in this game, in which case Nkunku is a massive runner that +120. Let’s move on to game number four of six, because I couldn’t quite get this right. Freiburg are at +110, Mainz at +240. Freiburg are unbeaten in their last five. The draw is at +270. The under or over is at 2.5. Again the over 2.5 is at -115. Kev, take it away. SC Freiburg should have been maybe -120, here. I only see a home win.

Kevin:

I’m not quite on that page with you. The only reason I say that, is because Mainz have really played well away from home. They’ve kind of flipped the script a little bit this season Mainz, because they haven’t been as good at home, as they usually are, especially under Bo Svensson, but away from home where Mainz’s traditionally awful, they’ve actually picked up some really impressive wins. So as much as Freiburg have started the season brilliantly, and absolutely they have even that +110, doesn’t particularly entice me, because of the way Mainz have hit on the counter attack. Even when Mainz aren’t playing well, as they didn’t against, Hertha Berlin on match day seven, they somehow managed to dig out a draw. So there’s real fighting spirit in that side. Bo Svensson’s all about that. And it’s just that Mainz away record this season, that’s putting me off going with Freiburg, because they’ve won a few, they’re scoring goals on the roads. [inaudible 00:31:11] has been a big, big part of that. And so, that’s why I stepped away from this one.

Flash:

Alex, it jumped. Do you know like, when you look down you’ve those that just jump out off the page. Freiburg at home to Mainz was just one that I thought, I’ve just got to take it. Yes it could be a trap. I’m just going to go blind and just jump straight in that hole.

Alex:

Who am I to disagree with you, Flash when you’re at seven points, seven unit of profit, after seven rounds, with this Freiburg win. I think, yeah. I think that you’re right from one point of view. +110, a home team. But I’m also afraid of this match. I would rather go with the Alex classic here, even though the last head to heads between the two teams, have stayed under. But the difference between them even this season, you see like, I don’t know, how many. Five places in the standings but there’re actually one win away from each other, with Mainz sitting on eight right now. So yeah Freiburg, there is a very little gap between the top, I don’t know, nine teams in the standings. We are talking about seven rounds. I think that we will see goals. I think that after the international break, in my opinion we’ll see plenty of goals. Like you said, like you love to say, a home wins maybe, but I’m really scared about playing this game. I think that Mainz scores. I think that this is an Alex classic.

Flash:

Yeah I think I saw just Freiburg to score twice, was the in total that I was looking at as well. Yeah, I can see this being over 2.5. And then-

Alex:

Yeah, but also Freiburg, lately they fail to find the back of the net in the last two against Hoffenheim, on the road and club back at home. So a little bit of a problem there. Yes it’s true, we are coming off of the international break, like we talked about, and things might change. But it’s important to know that you shouldn’t put a lot of money this weekend, no matter what you’re betting. Check your stakes, because we might have many, many upsets this weekend.

Flash:

Yeah. And people always say, oh and I had a conversation with a couple of people yesterday about the excuses of international breaks. It’s no excuses, it is actual facts, especially with the congested schedule at the moment. Because we’ve got champions league next week, we’ve got Europa League next week. The boys have probably, some of them have just played two games in four or five days. Fatigue, traveling, not being able to do shape, picking up injuries, niggles, they’re facts. There is a minefield-

Alex:

Imagine…

Flash:

Go on.

Alex:

No, no, imagine that Didier Deschamps ask the Christophe Galtier, because PSG has 11 games till the World Cup, and he asks him, “Can you please bench on Mbappe, from time to time because we need him fit.” This is what I saw on social media, with Deschamps on… Yeah after the match. Please Christophe, put him on the bench from time to time, because you have enough good squad. And in league game you can beat the opponents for fun. So this is where they arrived. And it’s normal because 11 games before the World Cup, we are in October right now, and then less than 11 weeks, we’ll have the… No.

Flash:

Six weeks.

Alex:

Six weeks, we have the World Cup. Yeah.

Flash:

And listen, and if someone’s actually listening to what you’re saying, in six weeks the teams are going to be playing 11 games. So I’ll tell you what, there is going to be some wonky results. But it’s great for you, Kev. Because that means more games to commentate on, which is a treat for us all. I think that Freiburg scored twice. I think that if Freiburg score twice, then I’m at +105, I think I’ll get my win at +110. Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because if you listen to what the boys are saying, I’m obviously rowing on my own. Freiburg money line at +110. Now let’s go into this next game, because really impressed with this. And if you heard Alex say, oh Freiburg didn’t score against Gladbach, this is a side I want to be with. +200 last time, and absolutely tore, RB Leipzig apart. And it’s Werder Bremen versus Gladbach, Werder Bremen at +160. Gladbach, massive, +150. Gladbach, pick a draw no bet at -115. The draw is at +295.

Gladbach to Score twice, is odds on -110, away from home. Alex you can go first. Gladbach for me, I think they’re far stronger than Bremen, but I expect both teams to score, an over, but I still think that Gladbach at +150. Is a, don’t complicate it.

Alex:

Yeah I love Gladbach, this season. I like watching them. They are playing on the front foot, they are creating a lot. They are fast, they have some incredible strikers there. Unfortunately, Thuram, will be out. And also very important in my opinion, Neuhaus is out. I think that he is one of their most important prayer. But still they have many, many players that can make the difference in the games. And we are talking about the second worst, okay, if we are taking Bochum away from all this, which we should. Werder, have the worst defense in the league or… Yeah, I think so. Yeah, no the second worst, after Schalke, with the 12 goals conceded. Yes they’re scoring, but they’re also considering. I think that Gladbach are going with the first chance here. If we’re looking a little bit at their away matches this season, we’ve seen draws in each of them to, again Schalke 1-1. They kept Munich to a 1-1 draw. Bayern and also a goalless draw against Freiburg.

And also in the last one, two, three, four, five. Five away matches, at the Werder, they won four of them. Scoring in each one at least twice. So I think that Gladbach wins this one, but I think that you should be careful and play the pk, the +0.5 here, if you want to go for a sure bet, in my opinion.

Flash:

Yeah, not for me. Shy boy is getting now, Kev. I’m going all in on Gladbach. They’re raw, they’ve got brute strength and the penny seems to have dropped and confidence. The only problem I have with Gladbach is, sometimes if they go 1-0 behind, they start second guessing, and they start trying to do too much on their own. They go 1-0 up, all of a sudden they’re happy to give the ball to their mate, to move, to pace. They’re a dangerous side, Gladbach. And I think that Bremen with their failure to keep clean sheets… I just think Gladbach are too big, and too strong at +150.

Kevin:

Yeah. I think Gladbach have started to season really well. I think Daniel Farke, is doing a good job. He was always going to. I think he’s a great coach. I think we saw that with Norwich, over a long period of time. I think it was a bit unfortunate, that Norwich let him go. And it hasn’t really changed anything, because Dean Smith, couldn’t keep Norwich up and it looks as though they are going to go back up to the Premier League maybe. So nothing’s really been altered there. But this is a bigger job than Norwich and the Borussia Mönchengladbach, I think that’s clear. And he’s got some very good players to work with. I am slightly skeptical about +150. I think the draw no bet, is worthy of a consideration, because you get that bit of insurance. Because Bremen area dangerous team going forward. And they’re battlers as well.

I think we’ve seen that time and time again. If you look at the home game again Stuttgart, Oli Burke scored in their 95th minute, that absurd game at Dortmund, when they were 2-0 down in the 89th minute, and won. So they’ve been in a lot of tight games. They haven’t won at home, so far, so that’s important. So yeah, I think because of the injuries, because the [inaudible 00:39:53] being out, because of international break. I’m totally with you on backing Gladbach in some way shape or form. But for me it would be, the draw no bet, rather than the outright away win.

Flash:

Yeah if we are sitting in, I like us to be in a little management crew. On, we’re sitting in on a Friday morning of right, how are we expecting the game to go on a Saturday? So like manager, assistant manager, or coach and the Bremen philosophy of going forward, going forward, going forward, is really what pushes me on to Gladbach. Because I’m thinking there’s no more powerful team, than Gladbach, when you get in one V one situations, of losing the ball. And that’s the problem I have with Bremen. They keep going, they keep going, they keep going, but they just leave that back door wide open, and they’re too wide apart in midfield. And the way that Gladbach are playing at the moment is, they’re just enjoying and loving their football. And when you have that in a group, you have to ride that train. A bit like your anytime goal score of knowing, the Musiala’s going to keep getting in there, because it’s working. And then you look at Gladbach, and you’re like, they look like that.

You know what we saw last season? That we saw a strong team that could go and beat a team, four or five. But then the problem we had last year is, but then they could go lose three or four on the bounce, because they thought they were better than they were. This year, they seem to be, okay, we know what we’ve got to do, and I always write down, penny seems to have dropped, but it seems let’s just keep riding this train. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because there’s value to be had in this game, and if you’re up against Gladbach, you’re on your own. Gladbach and over 1.5 goals, at +185. I see them scoring twice, I think they win the game. But there again Werder, have been known to score a couple of goals each time. Gladbach team total over 1.5, at -110. So Gladbach and over 1.5, at +185.

I think I also wrote down, I didn’t actually put it on my selections, but I was going to go Gladbach to win and both teams to score. And I think that was like a +350 or something. So that was something that I was contemplating. Let’s go to game number six which is… It’s a strange game. Because you’ve got Hertha Berlin, at a massive +180 at home, against Hoffenheim at +115. Now, if I told you Hertha Berlin are unbeaten in their last three. Remember Kev, said at the beginning of the year, when they got turn over in a couple of weeks. He was like, “These are not that bad, and not as bad as they’d have you believe.” And also they were a tip for relegation. Draw is at +275, the under or over is at three. That’s probably because they’re playing Hoffenheim. But I’m not sure we see four goals in this game, and that’s why it’s -120. Alex.

Alex:

Yeah. I don’t know what to say about this game. I wouldn’t back any of these two teams. I would play the draw, if you asked me. Because also Herta, bounce back after a poor start to the season. Hoffenheim are scoring goals, no matter where they’re playing in and out minus the 0-0 draw, against Freiburg. But still I’m afraid, this game in my opinion can go either way. This is why I’m not touching it.

Flash:

But the home side at +110 looks like Kev, is safe. Because the outsider, the Moneyline, is this one of them games where you say to me, I think the books have got the numbers wrong.

Kevin:

Yeah I think have. I think Hoffenheim being favorites doesn’t make a huge amount of sense to me. They lost this game three near last season, towards the end of here, to trying to dig their way out of trouble. And I think Hertha, as I’ve said all along really, since that defeat to Union, I think they’ve played really well. I think Sandro Schwarz, has given them structure with and without the ball. There’s also an intangible that’s worth bearing in mind. Clubs been given a massive boost today, with news that Jean-Paul Boëtius, who’s the second player at Hertha this season, to have been diagnosed with testicular cancer. He’s had an operation and it’s emerged today that he doesn’t need chemotherapy. Now that’s an enormous boost for everyone. He’s a very popular player, and that’s not going to move the needle massively. But I do think it adds to that feel good factor because you’ve also got Marco Richter, who was diagnosed with testicular cancer just a few weeks ago, and he’s been back and playing well for the last few games.

So all of these little things add up. And I think there’s a general feel good factor there. They were devastated to only draw, that Mainz, last time out should have won the game. I think the front three is great to watch. They’re not yet delivering goals, but I think they will. I think Chidera Ejuke, is a lovely player to watch. Dodi Lukebakio is unpredictable. And even though Wilfried Kanga hasn’t scored yet, he will. Because he’s a big strong presence in the, tech. Proven goal scorer in Switzerland with Young Boys. I think there’s some real potential there. Hoffenheim, I like very much, I think André Breitenreiter, has done a super job since he got there. But they are simply not as good a team away from home, as they are at home. And the figures will bear that out. They’ve only got three points on the road all season. So I do fancy Hertha here, I’m not going to back them outright. But I think that PK gives you the opportunity, to have that insurance, that if it’s drawn you get your stake back. So for me that’s the way to go.

Flash:

Yeah, I’ll tell you another way to go. I don’t fancy Hoffenheim to score twice in this game. I think the under is definitely a runner, but you getting hoffenheim under 1.5 goals at -120. Hoffenheim, have stuck up a couple of duck eggs, especially away from home this year. So listen, you’re getting under three goals at -120. If you get under three goals in this game, then the team total for Hoffenheim is under 1.5, at -120, as well. Interesting game this, but as Alex says, you’ve got to beware of that draw, at +275 Hertha. They were one of the relegation favorites, or one of the relegation picks at a decent price. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks of this game, and fancy Kev’s on his own, even though we’ve got an opinion is Hertha.

Draw no bet at +110. Remember, Hoffenheim, not to score twice is around -120. Under three goals in the game, is also at -120. Time for Q&A now. So get yourselves… I’ve wrote down a couple already. But while you are typing, I’ll remind you, and ask you to subscribe, because we’re America’s favorite Sportsbook. But also I’d like you to ring the bell, and that means we’ll notify you, and you’ll never miss any content again. Also you press a link in the description, that will take you over to the shirts. Basically, you sign up there, you come in, you go into a drawer, I’d then contact you, tell you, ask you what shirt you want, and then I send it to you.

If you’re on social media then follow @BetUSTV, because there’ll be updates, and there’s so many games going on this weekend, but make sure you are alive and kicking on the social media, because you might get a shoutout, 20 minutes before kickoff. When we see the lineups and we’ve had a good look, and that might be your winner. So, listen, it doesn’t matter, as long as you’re on, you’ll win. Okay, let’s have a little look. The first game was, Frankfurt Union. Kev, why did we not put that in? Is that just a game where it’s too tough or Frankfurt, they’re the better side but Union were in better form?

Kevin:

I think Union, would have a claim to be the better team in a weird way, but I just… It’s a strange one. Frankfurt I find really unpredictable at home, and Oliver Glasner has talked about this, the Frankfurt coach, that it’s a really curious thing that you’ve got 50,000 fans, they’ve got great backing, they play brilliantly at home at times, in Europe. Although actually if you look at some of their Europa League performances, most of the good ones were away from home, actually. They played better on the road than they did at home. They played really well at Westham. They played really well at Barcelona. So they’ve actually-

Alex:

They played great against, Marseille.

Kevin:

Yeah. So they’re finding it difficult to get that same level of performance at home, which is a strange one, really. So I think if you were going to go for Union, you’d look at Sheraldo Becker, or Jordan to score that. That’d be the way that you’d go. Because, Becker is in the form of his life, it’s been sensational. Jordan, looks really good alongside him. So if you were going to go for anything, it’ll be to back one of those two to score, or maybe even just stick half a point on each.

Alex:

And I don’t think that Union Berlin, will return home with the zero points. I think that they will do their classic game. They are the best defensive side in the league. It’s very hard to score goals against them. So if you want to go with the value bet, you are going with Union Berlin with draw no bet, at +135. So in case of a withdraw, you’ll take your money back.

Flash:

And also we’ve got European competition next week, which is always in this type of game. You just-

Alex:

Yeah, but also, Eintracht are playing Champions League, don’t forget about that, Flash.

Flash:

That’s exactly what I’m saying. And listen, at side like that, can be not excused, but can be expected to have more than half an eye on it. Especially during the game. After an hour, you might start taking decisions to… Or now we can start looking here. I know they say, they don’t, but they do. And sometimes you can lose a game. Werder. Werder coming back and winning 3-2 earlier, three or four weeks ago, is the prime example of a team thinking a game is won. And in Germany, as you know, listen you’ve made your reputation, Alex on games not being over till the 98th minute. Do you know what I mean? And I would say Germany, more than any other league in the world, we get late goals and games-

Alex:

Hopefully, they will start to come, Flash, because after seven rounds, we cannot see that, still.

Flash:

No, but they’ve been coming against us. That’s the other thing. We’ve been sitting in winning positions. I’ve sat on a draw, three or four times in seven weeks, and got done between the 88th and 97th minute. But that takes me over, as if you go to Betus.com, you can bet on the draw after 75 minutes, and you ain’t got to worry about them 20 minutes. But it’s just a greed factor. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks then please. Didn’t add any, but Nkunku, anytime goal score up +120. Bayern -1, at -125 for myself. Bayern and over 3.5 at +120. Köln, double chance for both Kevin and Alex. RB Leipzig, half time, full-time at -140. Gladbach team total over 1.5, at -110 there. Duck eggs fallen off the shelf. Gladbach and over 1.5 for me, at +185. But Gladbach to win and both teams to score in that game is at 375, I believe. And the bottom one is Hertha. Draw no bet at +110.

By the we’re only at 50%, on the thumbs up. Please show a bit of appreciation to the voice and golden balls, because they do put a lot of work in. I’m sure this weekend will be the weekend-

Alex:

Also Flash.

Flash:

… That it turns around. What’s the matter, mate?

Alex:

Also Flash, interesting odds boost on BetUS here. Leverkusen cushion to score at least one goal, and to have at least four corners-

Flash:

I know, the problem with that is, I don’t fancy Leverkusen to score.

Alex:

Really?

Flash:

No I don’t. That’s why I was good. That’s why I went with Bayern at -1.5. Because I think that they easily win the game and then could win the game to nil.

Kevin:

What was it, Alex? What was the boost?

Alex:

So Leverkusen, to score at least once, and to have at least four corners in the match on their own, is that +210, from +165.

Kevin:

Sorry, Leverkusen to score once in the game, and to have four corners.

Alex:

Yeah.

Kevin:

Is plus?

Alex:

+210.

Kevin:

Right. Stick that in. [inaudible 00:51:59] my selections.

Alex:

Yeah, go with the odds boost. Come on, now Kev.

Flash:

Look at Alex. Alex is like the little salesman. Oh don’t leave the shop yet. I’ve just remembered, you know that rug you were wanting, I’ve got one that’s just come in.

Kevin:

I think that’s a tremendous price. I do. Because, like I said to you earlier on, if I was going to go for one bet, from the Bayern game, apart from the anytime goal scorer bets, it would be Bayern to win, and both teams to score. I do think Leverkusen are going to score tonight. They might get smashed but I do think they’ll score.

Flash:

But do you think, they’ll get four corners?

Kevin:

If you look at the amount of play from them that goes down the flanks. If you look at like Diaby, they’ve had Hložek out there who hasn’t done particularly well. But they get the fallbacks forward as well. They get Frimpong, forwards, they get back and forward on the left hand side if it’s him. So I could see them winning four corners, and I think they will score. So I think +210, is it?

Flash:

Is it, +210, is it?

Alex:

Yep. +210.

Kevin:

Okay. Take that down on my list.

Flash:

You don’t want to move that, and say, wow it should be +210. But because you are a good customer, I’ll give you +210.

Kevin:

I thinking, 500.

Alex:

I will add it for you. I will make it the prop of the week for us instead of-

Flash:

No, you cannot have prop of week now, because Kev wants it on his own person.

Kevin:

Yes. [inaudible 00:53:18].

Flash:

See, I think I’ll sell it to one. See that’s where Alex, is not the best shopkeeper, because he says, I’ve only got one left, and then all of a sudden, he wants to sell two, to two people. I think that, it’s a-

Kevin:

I think that’s a great example. Just before we go. I think that is a great example of odds boosts sometimes being a really good thing to watch out for. Because we do everything on price, so if you look at Leverkusen, and you think, right, all I need them to do is score, and I have four corners. Bayern are not defending well. That they’re making lots of chances and not making the best of them, but they’ve been sloppy defensively. So I do think Leverkusen can score tonight, even though I don’t think Leverkusen will get anything out of the game. And the way they love those wide areas, I could see them getting four corners.

Flash:

It’s going to be a great game anyway, and you are doing it. So that’s an added boost for me. So I don’t have to watch it on mute. I can actually listen to your dulcet tones.

Kevin:

Listen to my voice when the fourth corner goes.

Alex:

Yeah. Imagine the fourth corner to be with Patrik Schick to score with a header.

Kevin:

Yeah.

Flash:

Manchester have eight corners, but don’t score.

Kevin:

Ah yeah, well there is that. There is-

Flash:

Exactly. I think-

Alex:

You’ll convert four extra corners into a goal, and it’s a winner.

Flash:

Exactly. Yeah. We used to play that. Four corners equals [inaudible 00:54:37] from everyone at BetUS, I have a great weekend. Remember we got Champions League on Monday, at two o’clock Eastern. We’ve obviously we Mina and Marco here. Some great ties next week. By the way, Barcelona go to Inter. Cannot wait for that one. But also if you go over to @BetUSTV… Yeah, put your thumbs up. If you go over to BetUS TV, there’s so many sports that are now kicking into top gear. And as I always say to everyone, it’s week four in NFL. That’s when you know the time of day, and you should now start storing your nuts. Myself, from Kev and from Alex, from everyone at BetUS, may all your bets be winners. And you Take care.

 

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