Mina Rzouki:
Yes.
Mark O’Haire:
As soon as they got into the knockout phases, they’ve been meeting Real Madrid, Man City and the likes.
Flash:
Yeah, I don’t see it getting any better this year to be fair.
Mark O’Haire:
So you need a bit of luck. I don’t want to dismiss the Italian achievement last year because I enjoyed the journey following all three Italian teams deep into the competition. I was on Napoli from the outset, but the Italian teams were fairly fortunate with the draw last year, weren’t they? That side of the draw, it was massively lopsided. You had Benfica, Inter Milan. If that happens again this time around for PSG, there’s every opportunity for them to go deep in this competition.
You need that bit of luck with the draw. You need that little bit of luck with injuries too. So yeah, don’t rule them out at a big price.
Flash:
Yeah. Okay, let me set the scene and obviously the schedule here. I’m not going to go through every single group because this is about futures, which means this is where we’re going to give you our Soccer picks very early on to get the value. So there’s maybe a couple of groups that we are not going to be talking about. Then you can talk about it when it says Q&A. That’s for you. Along the way, if you’ve got any questions that are regarding whatever we’re talking about, then please make sure you fire away, and also press the thumbs up.
Why don’t we start off with the first group that I want to be talking about? And it’s Group C, Real Madrid, -190, and you can see down the right-hand side, thanks to my graphics boys, that they’re giving you the odds to win the Champions League as well. So Real Madrid, -190 to win Group C, but a +800 to go all the way, which probably is a nice number. Napoli at +225, and +2,500 to lift it. Bragga at +1,200 and +250,000 to win it. And Union Berlin at +150,000. And are also +1,200.
Mina, Real Madrid, Napoli, for me it’s 50/50. So if it’s 50/50, I’ve got to go with a bigger number. I go in Napoli here because I think this whole group is how Napoli get on in Madrid and how Madrid get on in Naples.
Mina Rzouki:
So wait, you are betting on Napoli to win over Real Madrid?
Flash:
Well, no, I’m saying Napoli win the group, but do you want to tell everyone or do you want to just keep a little bit of suspense? I bet you hated presents at Christmas, didn’t you? I bet you wanted none of your presents wrapped. I’ve wrapped up this lovely gift of Napoli winning this group at +225, and you’ve opened the show and gone, “By the way, Flash is going to give everybody…” Why have you done that?
Mina Rzouki:
No, I’m just asking whether this is… Well obviously it’s odds to win Group C, so you are saying if it’s 50/50, you’d rather go for Napoli. So for me, it means that you’ve chosen Napoli. I’m sure people can understand what you have implied, but I guess that when you’re looking at -190, you are thinking it’s not really that exciting to look at. For me, this is a clear Real Madrid win, to be honest with you. I don’t see Napoli winning the group. I’m not entirely sure Napoli can even qualify out of this group. Maybe I’m being a little bit pessimistic on their chances at the moment.
Flash:
A little bit? A little bit? Bragga and Union Berlin against Napoli?
Mina Rzouki:
I don’t know. Union Berlin, I think they’re a great team and I think that the kind of style of play that they play could be really annoying for the other sides to watch. I’m a big fan of Urs Fischer and I just find that the way they organize themselves, to me it’s going to be very tough for Napoli I think. But I agree with you in the sense that we are talking about Kvaratskhelia, Osimhen, Zielinski still there. We’ve still got Anguissa and Lobotka in midfield. Their defense for me breeds a little bit of some discontent. I’m not entirely sure that they’re as defensively strong. I feel like Rudi Garcia needs a little bit of time to get this all together, but I’m sure he’ll be able to.
So I would say that Napoli should qualify. I look at Union Berlin and I think for me they could be a surprise package. I know that they lost 3-nil to Leipzig. It’s worth mentioning obviously that they lost Volland on the 65th minute. So they’re playing with 10 men on that and perhaps that is why you could say that they were defeated by Leipzig. Leipzig were fantastic in that game, but there’s something about Berlin Union. They are not playing in their stadium, so that’s going to be something interesting.
Having said that, their fans are basically the added value. They know how to create an intense atmosphere when they will be playing at home, and by that I mean in the stadium, in the Berlin Stadium, Stadion. Then I think that they’re going to be an interesting team to play against and we’ve seen Napoli sometimes crumble against pressure and I’m worried about that, in all honesty. Remember, Napoli, despite the fact that they were absolutely fantastic to watch last season, they’ve always more or less in Europe at least, have shown us that they can buckle under pressure. So was that win that they managed last season enough to curb everything within their history that shows you that? I honestly don’t know. So they should qualify out of the group.
Bragga, considering against Panathinaikos, they managed a narrow win, but they fell asleep quite a few times in that second game. So I would feel that they’d finish at bottom of the group to be honest, but Ray Madrid clear favorites to win the group.
Flash:
Well, they are clear favorites at -190, but scoring goals and keeping their players fit. But let’s eliminate a couple here, Marco O’Haire, because for me, Union, the squad size is not going to take them deep in this competition. And remember, the team who comes third in here, they jump then into the Europa League.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I’m with Mina. I would not dismiss Union Berlin here. I think there’s a huge crash of styles between themselves and Napoli and Real Madrid. This is a hugely historic occasion for Union, possibly more so than majority of the clubs in this competition. And it’s a great shame they’re not playing in their home stadium, but the fact that they have… I think they’ve already sold about 65,000 mini Champions League season tickets for the Olympic Stadium in Berlin. They’re absolutely buzzing for this opportunity and I just see an awkward team there, which I wouldn’t dismiss them at +1,200, not to win the group obviously, but to qualify prices. I think they’re at +450 and that’s disrespectful I think because I also agree that Real Madrid are very solid firm favorites here. I know they’ve had to do a bit of remodeling in the summer with Benzema gone, but Bellingham is picking up a lot of that slack already.
The issue I have for Real Madrid winning the group, and I think the odds are absolutely fine, I wouldn’t disagree with what they are, is [inaudible 00:11:42]’s injury and he’s going to miss the first couple of weeks. It looks like he’s going to miss the away trip to Napoli, which you’d probably say is the most tricky in the group. So that gives Napoli a little bit of an edge in that match. However, there still is an unbelievable midfield and options available to Carlo Ancelotti. He’s still got Rodrygo growing into himself, Bellingham and that stark. And obviously there’s injuries to Courtois and Militao as well, which hinder them a little bit, but I still think Real Madrid get the job done, not comfortably, but they should win the group.
Napoli, can they achieve what they achieved last year or better it? It’s going to be very difficult. Spalletti, the Sporting Director gone, Kim gone. The squad hasn’t massively changed but I think stylistically there will be a few growing pains, if you like, because Rudi Garcia does tend to be a bit more of a counter attacking coach rather than the high press of Spalletti, but we’ll see how that develops. But yeah, I think Union shouldn’t be dismissed.
Bragga, I’m going to find it hard to see them in [inaudible 00:12:39]. I know they beat Union in the Europa League last year, but frankly, that has absolutely no bearing on what happens this time around because a few teams do take that competition that seriously at that particular stage. So yeah, Real Madrid for me are the number one in this group. The price is there and Flash, you’re betting there on price and I understand why you’ve gone down the Napoli route. I just feel like Union could give a bloody nose to one of those two teams. And if I have to choose between one of them, I’m going to say Union give a bloody nose to Napoli.
So yeah, don’t disagree with the prices. So happy to pass up a betting opportunity in this group, but fascinated to see how it unfolds because I’m really gunning for Union to do something in this group. I really, really hope that they can put on a decent show for us.
Flash:
Yeah, the problem with Union is that don’t create enough chances, to be honest. So let’s have a little look at the official picks, if we have any official picks for me. Napoli to win Group C, +225. I just think again, like Mark says, I did look and think that Vinny Junior is not going to play in Naples. I think Napoli will beat Real Madrid and when they beat them, they won’t be at +225 any longer. And as for the other two, I think you toss a coin and I think that the Europa League is going to come down to just who wins in Berlin or if Bragga can win at home? I don’t think they get anything off of Real Madrid or Napoli in the home and away ties.
Let’s move on to Group D. Great price this, Inter Milan, -125, +2,500 to win it. Remember, semi-finalists then finalists last year. Benfica, +250, +5,000 for them to win. Real Sociedad, +550 can forget them, and +10,000 for them to come and lift it. And Salzburg are sitting there at the bottom, +800 and +20,000 to lift it. Mark O’Haire, Inter Milan, some would say that they’re stronger this year than they were last year. Better squad, better balance and an easier group.
Mark O’Haire:
I am not sure this is an easy group. I think it’s quite well-matched actually. Everyone’s talking about Inter taking the Scudetto being the top priority this season. I think that’s fair enough but they’re not just going to take the Champions League lightly because of that, and I’m really intrigued to see how Simone Inzaghi tackles things because I think the group is wide open. Obviously, you’ve got plenty of talent in that Inter squad. I think they’ve undergone their own element of transition, but I think experienced players have left, a collection of new faces have arrived. I do like the business that they have done. I think defensively they’ve got a real capable team there. The midfield is more than reasonable.
Just a little bit concerned about upfront. Have they got enough about them? Marcus Thuram is a really nice pickup. Lautaro didn’t score many in the Champions League last season, but we know he is more than good enough for this level. So I think they’re very solid enough and deserve to be favorites to win the group. I’m not going to back them though because I do think this group is more balanced than the betting is suggesting.
Benfica could easily be a danger again. We’ve seen them now in the last couple of campaigns. Clearly they’ve lost Ramos, which is a big name departure but I think they’ve signed some really interesting player, Kokcu from Feyenoord was brilliant last season. Cabral maybe didn’t hit it off in Serie A but he’s capable. Di Maria, Bernat have gone there as well. So that’ll be tricky and I think you’ve dismissed Real Sociedad a bit then as well. [inaudible 00:15:59]
Flash:
Oh yeah, I definitely do. I definitely do. Tune in on Thursday, half past three. I think it’s half past three Eastern time or three o’clock Eastern time, La Liga show. Sociedad are dossing around, dossing. They are an absolute joke. Their attitude throughout that squad is complete and utter dross. If I see them put a performance in, sorry to interrupt you Mark O’Haire here, if I see them put performance in against a proper, proper team, I’m going to go completely mental because they have dosed. They’ve gone every game, 1-nil, 1-nil and then they end up drawing 1-1. They go to Las Palmas, didn’t even kick a ball and drew nil-nil. They have not started this season at all and I hope they come bottom and they have no European football. [inaudible 00:16:42]
Mark O’Haire:
I love the strong opinions. I just think they’re more capable than those odds suggest and I think there’s a fascinating three-way battle there to win the group. Inter I do believe deserve to be favorites, [inaudible 00:16:53] favorites. So no bet for me here. I just think Salzburg, I’ve always liked them in the past. I’ve always think they’ve been a bit of a tricky team to play but they’ve had such a difficult summer, some seriously talented players have left the club. They’re always trustworthy to bring in some much needed replacements but I think it’s a tall ask in what’s a very tricky group for a team like Salzburg.
So I think in to win the group but I wouldn’t back them at -125. I think Real Sociedad, they’re going to have claims. I wouldn’t dismiss Benfica either. So it is a very tricky one. I’m interested to hear your views.
Flash:
What about Salzburg when they host Sociedad? Would you be happy to go with Salzburg then? Because Salzburg are probably going to be around maybe +155, +160?
Mark O’Haire:
No, not for me. I’d be with Sociedad all the way.
Flash:
Wow. Wow. Mina, I’ve got Inter here, -125 they win. I think Benfica, they will come second. I think this is a really open and shut group. Do you think Inter don’t win this group? Because I see them winning a minimum of five out these six games.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, I agree with you. I think Inter are a very strong team. I think that a lot of us weren’t sure and thought of them at the start of the season and thought they looked a little bit weaker than what they looked like last season. They lost obviously Edin Dzeko, who’s been their veteran, their star player, especially in the Champions League. He’s the man that made the difference. Obviously they lost Romelu Lukaku, there was a lot of controversy in the way that everything was handled. Milan Skriniar at the back is a big loss to them defensively. And so there’s all these question marks and I think the most important of course is Marcelo Brozovic, who’s no longer there. But I do think that they have bought well, that includes Pavard in defense for example, and they’ve got Frattesi now in midfield. They’ve got a lot of different options so their squad depth, especially with midfield has remained.
Marcus Thuram, I think that he’s really hit the ground running. He’s been wonderful to watch quite honestly. And now Arnautovic seems like he’s already got quite the connection with Lautaro Martinez. Whether or not they’re good enough, I think the true test we’ll find out on Saturday when they play the Milan derby. We’ll learn a little bit more about them going forward and we’ll learn a little bit more about Milan at the back because defensively they haven’t been tested, Inter haven’t been tested going forward. So I think there are question marks.
Benfica for me, I think they’re an outstanding team right now. Frankly, there’s just so much about them to love and including obviously one of my favorite players in the world in Angel Di Maria. I feel like he’s such a loss to my team in Juventus, but Kokcu in midfield has already been a stellar, stellar signing. He’s just fantastic to watch. Cabral upfront, we know very well from his time at Fiorentina, and then of course there’s that left back, Frederick Aursnes, that I think that he’s a very exciting player to watch a player that can cause a lot of problems for especially teams like Real Sociedad.
I can understand where Mark’s coming from. It’s very difficult to dismiss Sociedad because of the work that Alguacil has put in when he’s been in charge of La Real since 2018, and you could really feel like the way that they play their football, the style they deploy is very interesting. And especially if you love the Premier League, this is the kind of football that you would want to watch, but you and I, Flash, we’re pragmatists at heart. And so despite the fact that I do really like that midfield, how can you not like Merino, Zubimendi, Mendez? And then of course Kubo, you’ve got upfront who can score goals, who’s interesting.
Flash:
I think Benfica go through. I think Benfica will go through and I’m more than happy to go with Benfica like -1 against Sociedad when they host them, -1 against Salzburg. I see them winning and scoring three against both of them opposition. But I also see Inter Milan-
Mina Rzouki:
[inaudible 00:20:41] very dramatic in style of play. So my fear is that they do finish bottom of the group because of the fact that some… Especially with the way that they’ve started the season. I do think that technical quality will start to shine but considering the opponents that they’re facing and teams that vertical football, that pragmatic style will defeat them, I agree with you. I think Sociedad could be in for a bit of a shock. So I’m with Inter and Benfica qualifying. I can’t yet decide, it should be Inter, the Champions League finalists. They should be the team that goes through. Also they’ve got Simone Inzaghi, he seems to have that special touch when it comes to the Champions League matches.
Flash:
Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks because I just looked at Inter Milan here at -125 and said, “That will do me.” Group D winners, -125 for myself and for Mina. And Mark O’Haire has left it, which obviously sometimes is the best way to go. No bet, you’re never going to lose and just basically sit and maybe pick off the individual games.
Let’s go to Group E please because Group E is a one-horse race for me. It’s Atletico Madrid at -165. +2,500 to go deep into the tournament. And in fact 2,500 is to lift the trophy. Lazio, +300, so weak. Feyenoord, +600, Celtic +900. Mina, Lazio, I’m not trusting them, Feyenoord, I’m not trusting them, and Celtic, I’m not trusting them. Atletico Madrid here, by far and away the strongest unit.
Mina Rzouki:
Okay, you’re not trusting any of these other teams obviously other than Atletico, but just a question before I give you my opinion. Why are you not so trusting of Lazio, considering Maurizio Sarri and the loss that they managed… Sorry, the win that they managed against Napoli? Shouldn’t that perhaps elevate them in your eyes?
Flash:
Well, the best that they can hope for is second in my eyes, and them Feyenoord and Celtic, you cannot trust any of them on European nights. Lazio, you don’t know what you’re getting from them from week to week, and I just don’t see them being as good as last year. I don’t see them creating as much. I think Atletico Madrid are the best bet out of every group I saw that’s betable.
Mina Rzouki:
Yes, I agree with you. And considering the fact that they’ve reached the knockouts in eight of the 10 Champions League campaigns, you would imagine that they would progress. Obviously Cholo Simeone has… Especially this season I think they’ve started with a bang. They obviously got seven against Rayo Vallecano. I feel like Alvaro Morata is really enjoying himself at the moment. I like him working with Correa. Obviously there’s so much talent there, from Griezmann and more.
So for me, considering they are I think the in-form team right now in 2023, they’ve won 19 of their 32 games. They’ve scored 62 goals. They are top scorers in La Liga at the moment. I know it’s unfair to say that considering they did score seven against Rayo. So it’s not perhaps a fair way of describing them, but right now I really feel there’s something special about them. They’re starting to rebuild something. I think they’ve got the squad that they’ve been looking for with the skills that match what it is that Cholo Simeone can get out of the squad. And they don’t have Joao Felix, the conundrum that they’ve had to deal with for so long and adapt to and change perhaps the style of play that they’ve wanted to play or can manage to play.
Feyenoord, I agree with you. I think defensively I have question marks over them whether or not this is the side that I envision can do enough to keep out the attacking talent that there could be against them. Celtic of course, we know that it’s the home crowd that will make all the difference. I think Celtic has enough in them to cause genuine problems and they will be the team that decide the difference between who misses out on the Champions League knockout stages and who goes to the Europa League. They will be the team that makes that decision, I think.
However, I’m quite high on Lazio. I wasn’t sure how I felt about them because they didn’t start the season in the way that they should have. They lost Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, who by anyone’s estimation is perhaps the best player that they’ve had over the last four or five years. Ciro Immobile is just not the greatest of strikers, but I do think their midfield, which a lot of their players have arrived on transfer deadline or within those last few days of the transfer market. So they haven’t yet been integrated within the squad. With this time that they’ve had over the internationals, with the way that Maurizio Sarri wants to play, I do think Lazio should be qualifying, but I agree with you. It’s clear favorites that Atletico Madrid should win this group and win it easily.
Flash:
Yeah, Celtic and Feyenoord, they could both take points off of Lazio when they host them, Mark O’Haire, but for me, Atletico Madrid, they don’t slip up and they’ll go in your backyard and be too strong for both Feyenoord and Celtic. And even if they get a draw in Rome, I see them at -165. Sign me up.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, yeah, same here. To me, it’s one of the strongest plays in the group stage actually, Atletico to win the group at -165. Probably should be a little bit shorter. Celtic under Brendan Rodgers don’t convince me in the same way that Celtic would have under Ange Postecoglu. You’ve got Feyenoord who’ve lost a number of key stars who’ve been burgled in the summer after their title winning campaign. And Lazio, respect them, absolutely I do. The performance, they’ve won at Napoli I think in the last two years now, which goes to show that Sarri can put together a plan in place to beat prestige teams, especially away from Rome.
But I just think Atletico, they could and should really dominate this group. It’s got a bit of a Europa League feel to me and Atleti deserve to be a Champions League team and have been not just knockout specialists, but they’ve reached the final twice under Simeone too. I think we’ve seen Simeone release the shackles a little bit too over the last nine months or so. Certainly in the second half of last year, Atleti weren’t the old Atletico. They released those shackles, played much more front foot football, played attacking, your Griezmann being the big driver there. But Depay and others, there’s so many contributors to that team going forward. They’re not that sort of team who just play in a deep defensive block now all the time as they were so effectively like a decade ago. Football almost moved on a little bit and left Simeone behind for a year or two, but he seems to have rethought things and I think the improvements they’ve made in the last nine months have been incredibly impressive.
So yes, defensively they’re not as reliable as they possibly were maybe four or five years ago. But I think going forward, they’ve got many different tools to hurt you. So I think the balance, if he finds it will be strong enough to win this group with a bit of room to spare. Obviously, that trip to Rome will be the tough one in the pool, but I think Atleti should be taking six points off Feyenoord and Celtic. They probably won’t. They’ll probably drop points possibly in both away days, but they’ll do enough in Madrid to get the job done and should really be winning this group. So yeah, they’re my best bet of the pool stage in terms of who’s going to win the group. I think -165 is more than fair.
Flash:
And I would go as far as saying whoever finishes second in this group, they go out in the knockout stage first round, that’s it. Celtic, Feyenoord, Lazio, you’re better off coming third and having some type of run in the Europa League than going out in the first knockout stage of the Champions League for coming second. So let’s have a little look at the official picks. Atletico go to win the group for myself and for Mark at -165. Group E goes the way of the Spaniards.
Let’s go and have a look at our final group, which is going to be Group F. And this is going to be brilliant because I could just sit back as a presenter and say PSG, what a price at +110. Newcastle, +225 to win Group F is completely wrong because AC Milan are more than double them at +500. And Dortmund at +550 where you can forget them because they’re just not good enough and they haven’t got the steel to go home and away to the three teams above them. So I can put a line through Dortmund, not sure I can put a line through the other three, Mark O’Haire.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, similar. I think Dortmund are the fair outsiders there and PSG are the fair favorites, and I think PSG at plus money is more than good enough for me. Talked about them at the start of the show already. I actually think they’re quite underrated in all the markets, which is probably the first time I’ve ever said that in the Champions League. Futures show they look a more balanced outfit to me this season. I really like Luis Enrique as a coach and I think they will grow into the campaign. They’ve also got fewer domestic matches this time around as well with League 1 dropping from 20 teams to 18. So perhaps there’s an opportunity to be a bit more fresher this time around when the big challenges arrive in the spring.
Tough group of course, but I think they’re fair favorites. But as you say, the market makes Newcastle quite strong. Second favorites here. I’d argue against that point. I’d rather be with Milan and I think you can get Milan around +138 to qualify. Newcastle would be minus money in that market. It’s going to be tight, it’s going to be competitive. But look, Newcastle are short priced because the Premier League dominance is playing a big part in that. It’s the strongest rated league in the world. Newcastle did perform pretty well last year. The ratings had them very high as well. That’s the underlying metrics which will play a big part in the pricing.
However, I think there has to be a human element come into this as well. And last season Newcastle had no European involvement. They’re now thrust into Champions League football for the first time in a long time. That creates a whole new set of challenges. It’s new to Eddie Howe. It’ll feel new to Newcastle because it’s not been happening for a while and they will take this competition very, very seriously. It’s a very difficult group. And amazing away days for Newcastle fans you should say, Paris, Milan, Dortmund, but there’s no points for away days.
I think Milan, a little bit lucky to be in this competition after Juventus’ points deduction, but I think they’ve used the opportunity pretty well this summer to remodel that squad. I really like their transfer business, Musah, Pulisic, Chukwueze, Okafor, Loftus-Cheek. They spent the Tonali money pretty well. Leao staying is a huge plus. I just need to see a bit more improvement in defense, particularly the center half partnership, which works so well during the Scudetto campaign and then was a big drop-off last year.
But yeah, I think they can get points off Newcastle, absolutely, and I think Dortmund are the weak point in this group. Obviously losing Bellingham is a massive blow but I just think the psychological scars and the way in which they lost the Bundesliga title last year could weigh hard on them in the early part of this campaign. Well, we’ve already seen that actually, haven’t we in the Bundesliga? And I think if you look at the German top flight at the minute, I would have Dortmund below Leipzig and Leverkusen and Bayern. So happy to dismiss them and a straight shootout between Milan and Newcastle. I would be with the Italians, but I think PSG plus money to win the group is the bet here.
Flash:
Yeah, there’s a lot of what you said just makes complete sense because the other thing I don’t see a lot of here is away wins, and if you are going to pick up an away win in these fixtures, it’s going to be in Dortmund. But now Dortmund are going to be struggling and they’re going to be fighting for their life when they host later on in the competition. But Mina, for me, Milan at +500 is so, so big. I see them beating Newcastle, game one.
So then all of a sudden, then I see them flip-flopping. I see Newcastle then should be +600. I just see Milan, I love the +138 that Mark mentioned for them to go through.
Mina Rzouki:
It’s interesting because over the summer there were question marks about Milan. Letting go of Paolo Maldini, obviously your famed defender, your Club Director, the man who resurrected Milan and got them back into the Champions League and seriously contending for it. There were question marks asked, how could you sell Sandro Tonali who grew up a Milan fan and worships at the altar of AC Milan? And yet it’s remarkable the turnaround and the way that they’ve managed to change the way that the fans feel about them. All of a sudden they went from this new management side that doesn’t know what it’s doing or understanding the history of Milan, to a management side that invested their money very well and created a team for Stefano Pioli that has the depth that they were lacking last season.
One thing you could say about Milan last season was that they were very dependent on Rafael Leao and they always looked like they tilted left wing and if they didn’t have anything… If he was blocked, you just didn’t know where the goals were going to come from. They were overrun in midfield and their defense was somewhat more exposed. They didn’t have Maignan for much of the start of the season and that caused them all sorts of problems in even their attacking play.
So this time around though, I still have question marks about their defense that I’m looking to answer this Saturday when they play Inter in the derby. But more than that, I think going forward, you don’t know what’s going to happen because they have action and ability from all areas. You’ve got Rafael Leao, you have Chukwueze on the left, you potentially have Pulisic either through the middle or on the left. You have Reijnders making these such interesting runs from midfield. Going forward, Milan can score four or five goals. I am telling you, they are wicked going forward. It’s just defensively. Dortmund [inaudible 00:34:02], and one of the reasons you could say this is their extremely lucky point that against Heidenham, a newly promoted side and that for me, they are going to finish last in this.
So I agree with all of you. I just see the way that they have been, they were labored in their first match. They were so lucky to get away with a 2-2 in their last match and I feel like they’ve lost quite a bit of quality right now. They could pick up, but Newcastle I think told us a lot about how I feel about them in that match against Liverpool. I think that they have the challenge but it’s about understanding the mentality required to win those matches. It’s a big step-up from winning when you are the underdog to then winning when the pressure is on. And I think that’s something that Eddie Howe’s team has to really come to grips with. Are they a side that really know how to push themselves and rise to the occasion when it matters? And that’s not just of the players but of the coach himself.
My money is on Milan because of just what I’ve seen so far from the start of the season and the way that Newcastle has wilted. But I do agree, I think it’s a straight shootout from both of them. Considering the money is on Milan to qualify, I’d rather go for them. PSG, I’m not sure of their midfield. I know that Marco really likes to go at it. I think that they have a really good team in the sense that it’s a little bit more balanced in the forward line especially, they are a team that will work a bit harder.
Luis Enrique though, he needs about three months. Honestly, he needs about three to four months to create a good team, whether or not they’ll drop a few points up till the end. However, for me, PSG, I don’t care who’s on that team. They’ve got Kylian Mbappe, he’s the best player in the world and if you can’t win a group with the best player in the world, then you are not good enough.
Flash:
I tell you what though, you’re both sick, sick people because I came in here thinking Milan at +4,000. You’ve got me thinking that PSG at +1,600, it’s too big a number. I’m happy, in this game you’ve got to be able to, happy to be maybe to switch, to bend but not break, and PSG, 1,600. Well, I’m thinking I’ve not seen PSG +1,600 since I went to school when I was a kid.
Mina Rzouki:
No.
Flash:
As Mark says, it’s normally around 750, maybe 11 to 2, 550, but 1,600? And listen, I’m looking at my initial impression here was Newcastle, Milan, Newcastle, Milan, Newcastle win their home games. But then after what I’ve seen from Newcastle is they struggle with teams that have pace and they have precision passing. They pick them off and I don’t see Newcastle winning in Milan. I definitely don’t see Newcastle winning in PSG, and I think that by the time they come to play Dortmund, it could well be a Europa League place.
So yeah, let’s have a little look at [inaudible 00:36:48] because it’s a great… Listen, individually we’re going to look at these games week in, week out because there’s going to be so much value there. PSG to win the group for both the experts and you presenter has gone greedy again. I’ve gone Milan to win at +500. I wouldn’t mind if Milan comes second though and they pick up the likes of maybe Arsenal or Sevilla because they won’t be able to play any of the Italian sides. So maybe Milan just to get through at +138 is probably the sensible play.
Okay, let’s move on now because we’re going to win the Champions League. We’re not going to go too crazy about this, but look at that, Man City, +200 to go back-to-back. Only Real Madrid in recent times have gone back-to-back. Bayern Munich at +550. I think Real Madrid at +800 need everything to fall their way and I mean that by injuries to key personnel. And I’ve gone with Milan at plus 4,000 at the bottom, Mark O’Haire.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, no issue with Man City being +200. Well, sorry, no issue with them being favorites, but I would probably have a little bit of an issue with the +200 because 12 months ago we had this show talking about the futures and Man City were +275. So do they warrant that big a decrease to +200? They’ve lost some key players again this summer. I know they’ve refreshed that squad and Gvardiol was an exceptional capture in defense, but is Kovacic and Matheus Nunez going to match up to Gundogan? Is Doku going to fill the void that Riyad Mahrez has left? Potentially, but I had issues with City last season and I actually, I didn’t bet on them to win the Premier League because I wondered whether they’d downsized their squad a little bit too much and whether it was luck or design, they didn’t have too many key injuries. But already we’ve seen De Bruyne pick up another important injury and I don’t think you need too many more to key players. If Haaland picks up something, that price suddenly suddenly becomes a little bit short.
So I’m happy to try and oppose them at that price, full well knowing that they’re probably going to be there or thereabouts. I just think the price is too short. You’re saying City take up a 33% of the book and that’s a large number for such a competitive competition. They’re fighting on five fronts now this season as well because they have the Club World Cup to contend with as well. So enough niggles for me to leave them alone and look elsewhere. And I think Bayern at +550 are worth a look. I think every team in this competition has flaws and I think Bayern is definitely defensively. Clearly they had a list of targets they wanted to sign before the transfer window, weren’t able to get them over the line, which disappointed them. They will go out and try and get those deals done in January.
So I think what we know with Bayern is they tend to breeze through the group stage and they should do so again this time around, and then we’ll see where they’re at in the spring. And the beauty that Bayern have is they have that winter break in Germany as well to rest and refresh. They play fewer games anyhow. Fewer cup competitions too domestically. There’s no World Cup squeezed into this campaign either. So physically this squad should be at its peak coming into the spring. And I just think perhaps, I’m not saying he’s the missing piece of the puzzle, but having Harry Kane upfront this time around, that spine is starting to look very, very strong With Kane signing at center half. Clearly there’s issues in the right back, but at the minute I think they should breeze through the groups and then we’ll see where they’re at in the last 16, where they should in theory avoid Man City because they’re the two teams expected to win their group and Thomas Tuchel knows how to navigate cup competitions.
He’s called some distance form for this too. They weren’t a million miles off City last season. They probably gave City their toughest test in the knockout stage. So I think they’ll be stronger this time around. If they get Paulinho through in January, suddenly that core and that middle starts to look strong too. I think they’ve got the firepower to match any team in this competition too. So Bayern Munich at +550 would be my suggestion, as I said earlier, but I think that PSG price will contract the longer we go into this competition. So I’d have a little saver on that, +1,600.
Flash:
I couldn’t agree more with the +1,600 PSG, it’s jumping out. I have gone a bit of Milan, +4,000. I think Inter at +2,500. I think this is the year that you obviously have to have Man City in some way, shape or form. But then after that, I think they’re opposable… I cannot see why Arsenal at +1,000 by the way. They struggle in Champions League, in Conference, in Europa League. They just struggle and I’m playing on so many fronts, no good. Barcelona? Yeah. Man United, what are they doing now? Someone’s having a laugh, Mina.
Mina Rzouki:
Thank you.
Flash:
I think the Italian sides are going to be strong. I
Mina Rzouki:
Who put Man United in there? Considering-
Flash:
Well, UEFA did. UEFA allowed them in. How they allowed them in, I do not know.
Mina Rzouki:
And over the finalist and the semi-finalists from last season. I find that remarkable.
Flash:
Disrespectful.
Mina Rzouki:
This is how much people rate the Premier League where even the team that can’t seem to put together a win and have most of their players facing suspensions are somehow favorites. But either way, maybe they will pull it off and we’ll start to see something interesting and maybe Rasmus Hojlund will score all the goals and that’s going to be the difference maker. But I’m going to have to agree. I am sorry I don’t believe in PSG. They can buy whoever they want. They can cause this team, but as long as that management still exists, even though this looks more like a Luis Campos team, even though Luis Enrique is a better coach, we have said this over and over again. This is a side that has too many problems in the dressing room to get it together to win a final.
I think that the competition is too stiff because Bayern Munich for me, I would have to say look tasty. Man City has the best team. They have shown us over the last season what they are capable of. My only question is to win it back-to-back. It is a feat and it is one that’s usually only accomplished by Real Madrid. So I’m not sure that City can go so many years not winning it and to winning it and then winning it two times in a row. It can be done because I’ll be honest with you, the competition is not that great. I don’t see any team there and I think to myself they are a very strong team.
The only side that do look like that is by Munich. I think Paulinho is a necessary buy for them. I don’t know if that can be something that they push over the line in the transfer market in January, but they are to me a more complete team than the rest. So I think they will provide the sternness test. And of course, with what Ancelotti is doing with this team, considering the injuries that they’ve had with Otamendi, with Courtois, with Bellingham and his positioning, with Rodrygo growing, with Vinny Junior about to explode into the greatest thing we’ve ever seen, I think they’re always a shout.
Other than that, my money, Milan. It’s an outside bet, but right now with the team that they have, the squad depth that they have and the coach that they have, I think they’re going to be an interesting side to watch this season.
Flash:
I love it, I love it. I love the fact that PSG at +1,600 and I came on this show not even thinking about that, so thanks for that Mark O’Haire, but the two Milans who were semi-finalists last year, arguably are going to be better this year with question marks about Man United, Barcelona, Arsenal, I don’t see any of them coming close over two legs to both the Milans. So again, I think there’s money to be earned here and if Man City have an off day, then so be it.
Let’s have a little look at the official picks because again, we’re not reinventing the wheel. We’ve got Man City +200 for myself and Mark O’Haire has gone with a bit of value, Bayern at +550. Now, the Golden Boot, I think is probably one of the best gifts you’re going to be given, and there’s a great reasoning why. Look at this, Erling Haaland is +120, right? Man City could score 25 to 30 goals in their six group games. He only needs probably seven or eight, Mina, to win it. It’s Harland, +120. Just go and enjoy because if he stays fit and he plays the games, he scores eight in the group games.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, because it’s obviously not about the best player in the world. It is about the team that you think will reach the final and that you think can make the difference because Osimhen is a great forward. Vinicius Jr. is obviously one of the-
Flash:
You’ve got to look at the opposition though that they’re going to play in the group games. They could score 30 goals in the six games.
Mina Rzouki:
Considering Man City, we talk of easy draws and PSG have really been through it over these last few seasons. Somehow Man City always ends up in one of the easiest groups. So you imagine that they will have a lot of fun scoring goals. They are a team that you would imagine would reach at least a semi-final. So Erling Haaland has to be… At plus money, it’s fantastic. Mbappe we know is, at least in my opinion, the best player in the world, but it’s about how far PSG can get. And considering the fact they’re in the group of death, how many goals can he get against all these different teams that are so good by my estimation?
Now, so for me, it’s between Haaland or Kane because I also imagine Bayern Munich, like I said, we’ll get there far, we’ll at least get to the semis. So then that’s the question of how many goals will Kane get? They are playing for Kane. He is a tremendous forward. So for me, it’s between him and Haaland to be honest with you. I just don’t think all the other sides will reach far enough for their strikers to be collecting all the goals that they need.
Flash:
We just invented work for our graphics team here, Mark O’Haire, because you go Erling Haaland, Man City, +120. Is anyone even worthy of a shout after that if he stays fit?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I’m just going the alternative route again. Appreciate Haaland is a deserved favorite, but at more than three times the price you can get Harry Kane, and Bayern Munich scored 18 group stage goals last season and that was in a pool containing Barcelona and Inter Milan. So they scored twice or more in all six of their group games. They scored nine goals in four games against Barca and Inter. Incredible firepower and that was without Harry Kane upfront. So this time around they got FC Copenhagen, Galatasaray, Man United, United being in theory the toughest opponent. You should expect to get a few, at least in Munich, in that particular match.
And then I just think they’re very strong this time around, Bayern Munich, and I think with Kane upfront. Last season the Sadio Mane transfer didn’t work out for Bayern. It feels like they might’ve found the right answer to that puzzle. They’ve got so much ability and he just provides that cutting edge, even that creativity. If this competition, I’m not even sure the rules, but if the two players at the top end of the market are level on goals, the assists might come into account. I’m not even sure, and I think Kane would have the edge there.
So you look how prolific Lewandowski was in that Bayern Munich team, Kane should flourish in the same manner. So it’s a fascinating market this year because there’s no Messi and Ronaldo for the first time in about 20 years. There’s no Mohamed Salah either. So it does really open it up a little bit. So Haaland is deserved favorites, but I’ll just wonder, because those matches are almost so easy for City, is there a possibility that he’ll be rested? City go away to Red Star in their final group game. The group should in theory be tied up already.
I’d have a look at the scheduling just to see who Man City play after their Champions League games because you might be able to get a better, clearer idea. It might be forward-thinking a bit too far, but there is opportunity there for City to potentially rest Haaland. And I don’t think that would be the case with Kane because Bayern don’t really have too many alternative options. So I do anticipate him starting all those Champions League games. They are ruthless despite having the group sown up. They’ll still pick a pretty strong team to keep on plowing away. So I do like Bayern in most markets, and therefore I have to like Kane at +400.
Flash:
Yeah, Leipzig, if you are a Haaland backer, Leipzig, Red Star, and I see Man City destroying the Young Boys, absolutely destroying. I see them minimum of 20 goals. Yeah, you can smile, Mark O’Haire. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks because it’s got to be Haaland, Haaland and Harry Kane, but that does basically go in tune with his Bayern Munich to win the Champions League as well. But I think Haaland’s a gift at +120.
Time for Q&A now. You have got something you want to say, then now’s the time to say it or type it because also, I’d like to remind you to subscribe and also to ring the bell, which means we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again. It is the 30th birthday here at BetUS and we will be giving away prizes, gifts, and all sorts of offers. All you’ve got to do is type in betustv.com/odds or betustv.com/join.
Okay, Shane, “Not sure if BetUS offer each way place terms in the Golden Boot.” Shane, come on man. Just go with Haaland. Just go with Haaland. No each way. Why would you go each way? It’s like a one-horse race or you just bet Kane because he’ll come second. That’s about right, isn’t it right, Mark O’Haire? You’re getting forced to whine about a two-horse race?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, just back Kane all the way, not Haaland.
Flash:
Okay. Mina, what about this one? “Do AC Milan get distracted from their Serie A exploits?” Shane again, “Or are they not strong enough domestic…” I think they’re strong on… I think their squad’s perfect to be able to cope.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, I think that’s a legitimate question to have asked last season because I don’t think that they had the squad depth to cope with the different competitions that they were trying to win. But right now this is a side that… Oh look, I’ve gone very blurry for you.
Flash:
There’s a shock.
Mina Rzouki:
But right now this is a side that I think does have a lot of talent to rely on. I think even attacking wise, if Rafael is not capable of playing or doesn’t make the difference or heavily defended against, then you’ve got so much to choose from, whether it’s Chukwueze, whether the run is from midfield, whether it’s Pulisic. I think Giroud is masterful. There’s Okafor to come in and make the difference as well. So there’s a lot of attacking talent.
I think the only question marks I have is at the back, do they have enough when it comes to defending? Tomori is out unfortunately, for example in the derby. So we’re going start to see what the defense looks like when it doesn’t have all their star players. So I think they’re legitimate questions to ask, but I think that they have enough in their squad to handle both challenges at the moment.
Flash:
Okay, let’s have a little look at all the best bets please, and I’ll go for them. And I think there might be a little bit of color because myself and Mark O’Haire both gone for Atletico to win Group E at -165. We’ll start off with Mina though. We’re going to start with Inter to win Group D at -125. PSG to win Group F at +110, and Erling Haaland Golden Boot at +120.
Mark O’Hare has gone PSG to win Group F at +110 like Mina, Bayern to win the Champions League at +550. Harry Kane Golden Boot at +400 and he’s thrown in a nice parlay, +153 of Bayern and Atletico to win their groups. So Bayern and Atletico, +153 does look a really, really good price for me. With top to bottom, I’ve got Atletico and inter to win their groups at +189.
I’ve also gone with Haaland, Golden Boot at +120. I’ve had a bit on Milan to win the Champions League, but +4,000, I think I may well go with Inter Milan as well at +2,500. I’ve gone with Man City at +200 is my saver. Milan to win Group F at +500. Atletico and Inter to win their groups. Inter at -125, Atletico at -165 and Napoli is the value for me at +225 against Real Madrid.
Okay, make sure that you do join us on Thursday for Premier League, Serie A and La Liga, and there will be an opportunity if you join us live for them shows to win a ticket into a free draw for a truck, not a little toy truck, a real truck. So make sure you join us live on Thursday, and if you miss out on Thursday and Friday with the Bundesliga. By the way, all the shows so far this season are in profit. Don’t forget, the NFL and the college shows are going great guns, absolutely great guns. You love your NFL, you love your college football, then you must get involved and join Gary Segars and the boys and Jared, Steve and Las Vegas Chris.
Mark O’Haire, I’ll see you on Thursday for the Premier League with Brad Thomas. Mina, are you there Mina? Mina, are you there?
Mina Rzouki:
I am. I’m not sure why it’s still freezing me.
Flash:
No, we will sort this out once and for all because it is doing my head in now. Can’t have someone who looks like you and then not be able to see you. Okay?
Mina Rzouki:
I know. Terrible thing.
Flash:
Yeah, you’ve had to live with it all your life, but yeah, I’m not having it anymore. But I’ll see you for Serie A on Thursday as well. From everyone in the chat please, thumbs up on the way out. Look forward to this Champions League. It will be next Monday, two o’clock Eastern time. We will have some individual games to go through, probably around seven or eight, but I’m looking forward to getting some really good value. So Mina and Mark O’Haire, we’ll see you Thursday. From everyone at BetUS, you take care.
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