Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I guess you could say that with many and I’d liked to for sure. But I think the Premier League have got strong competitors this time around, obviously Chelsea, defending champions, you’re going to get the maximum respect again, this time around. But I think Liverpool are looking very strong and Manchester City will still feel like they’ve got a strong claim on the title too. But Bayern Munich are going along under the radar. Everyone was talking about PSG and Man City at the start of the season as jostling for favoritism, and whereas Bayern have slipped in there into second favoritism and they’re starting to look really, really strong under Julian Nagelsmann too. So yeah, it looks like a really competitive battle at the top of the betting.
Flash:
Yeah, and also I think that Liverpool, remember it was only two seasons ago, they lifted the trophy. They had a whole host of injuries last year that definitely ended their play. But this year, they look as good as anybody, so is wide open and were going to get themselves right into the action here. First of all, Henry says, “Will you talk about Red Bull Salzburg?” Oh yes. I will definitely be talking about them at the end of the show. Let’s go and kick off with our first game.
Flash:
Our first game is, it’s a big one, and we’re off to Belgium. It’s Brugge vs Manchester City. And we’re going to start off by talking about Brugge which took points off PSG and then Man City go into PSG and not picking it up any points. Mina?
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, this is a tough one. I know that Manchester City, when it comes to the domestic league, all we ever see is the beauty of their play. And they are so defensively solid. They are just so unpredictable in the way that they play their game with so much talent there and how they possess the ball that they make football look so easy. And yet when it comes to the Champions League, all the defensive work goes out of the window and they forget how to do it, and it just becomes a free fall for their opponents like we saw against PSG.
Mina Rzouki:
Now, Club Brugge don’t have the kind of talent that can compete with Manchester City, but they are a very well run club with some really and special individual talents. Ketelaere just made his debut for the Belgium national team and scored a goal against Italy, really fantastic player to watch, so much tactical intelligence there as well. And then of course, Vanaken. They are aside that can score goals. They are not going to be aside that can probably stop Manchester City, but I don’t know with this one. There was a part of me that thought, “Wait, could this be a draw?” Because we can see Manchester City sometimes disappointing on the European stage, but at least in the group games, you feel their quality does shine through and then all over thinking it. So you would think that even though it’s away from home, that this is a City win.
Flash:
Yeah, you would have thought that, but I’ve seen nearly every single one of Brugge’s league games, they score a minimum of two every week. And it’s too easy for them. I watched them last week with the prime reason of coming on air and giving you a complete breakdown. Going forward, they’re sharp, but they were so sloppy in their mind almost like they knew they were going to win last week 2-0. There should have been seven or eight, but then in the last five or 10 minutes, their defense, which was, and is struggling a little bit, could have conceded too. And it just, I worry Mark O’Haire, that maybe they need to be at the top of their game 100%, again, like they were against PSG because the crowd will be up for it. All the players now are going to be out to perform to that level again.
Mark O’Haire:
I think they’re well capable of performing to that level again. I don’t think this is going to be a walk in the bathroom for Man City by any stretch. I think the first two performances from Club Brugge so far have been very impressive, not just the home draw against PSG, but actually, they did actually win the xG battle on the sharp counter against PSG. That wasn’t a fluke, that opening performance, because they followed it up in Leipzig. And I think what stood out to me was they were leading at half time. And they again won the xG battle when you would assume they’d be protecting and preserving their advantage away from home. I think that’s really quite impressive. They do take a proactive approach in their style certainly by front football with that noisy crowd willing them onto get forward and then cause problems.
Mark O’Haire:
Mina has already mentioned, Ketelaere and Noa Lang as well, they played as for 4-4-1-1 system, and they’ve got plenty of highly rated youngsters coming through the squad in every game this season in league and Champions League. So I really wouldn’t rule them out causing City problems. However, if you take a step back, this is Man City who are pretty much at full strength. Think about Ferran Torres, and you just think of some of those away performances we’ve seen from City, I know they lost in PSG, but they’re very, very good. And against Chelsea as well, they were absolutely fantastic, and away at Liverpool as well. So, City do turn up to the party and play their A game. It’s going to be very difficult for Brugge.
Flash:
Well, fans, there’s no clean sheet in this game. So let’s have a little look at the numbers because I think there’s great value, especially if you’re looking for the away team to win, but neither side to keep clean sheet. Because first of all, the goals mark is starting at three. It’s over three at -125 so that tells you they’re expecting a minimum of three, but the chances are, it’s going to get to four. But Man City having to give up that goal and a half, I fancy they win this, but maybe by the odd goal.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I agree. I think they do win the game, but I don’t think it’s going to be a walk in the park by any stretch. And I think you’ve mentioned it as well, Brugge’s defense has been creaking a little bit this season. I think it’s just the five shutouts all season averaging 1.2 goals per game against which is an idea when you’re coming up against Man City. And look, the goal line is always really high when Man City are involved because they absolutely monopolize possession and always create plenty of free open play opportunities. It’s just do they have that clinical finisher we thought they needed in the summer. They never went out and got him. So, this all comes down to City, whether they put their chances away and whether Brugge can do the damage when they get their opportunities in transitions.
Mark O’Haire:
So yeah, I’d rather go on a goal’s route. I wouldn’t be attacking that over three line. I just think it’s probably a little bit too high for me. I think there’s probably savvier ways to get involved in this game. I think one of you two probably has found it. It’s probably Man City to win the game and goals, but I’ll leave one of you to reveal the main players here.
Flash:
Yeah, well, and the other one I like is just, if you fancy Brugge just to score, don’t complicate it. Don’t worry about Man City going and winning. It’s a -130, which is just a really, really tasty proposition. But Mina, you like goals, you like the visitors, and you’ve combined them really well.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, I wonder because I think that I can definitely see three goals in this. I don’t know why I do because I trust Manchester City to score against that back line. You’ve mentioned it before. This is a creaky back line, and we’re talking about an overwhelming forward line, even if it is without that elusive number nine that Manchester City have been searching for. But they also can’t keep a clean sheet in Europe. I do think that everything changes. There are different types of opponents that they’re not ready for. So I can see three goals. It’s whether or not I see more than that.
Mina Rzouki:
But I agree with you. I think it’s wonderful to just say, Flash, let’s just not overcomplicate it. We see this being a City win. We see this as Brugge are getting a goal, so maybe just leave it at that. What do you think?
Flash:
Well, a plus 185, I don’t think it’s just leave it at that, I think that that’s going to actually pay for someone’s Christmas, Mina. Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because we’re all on the same page. I think that we all believe that there’ll be goals from both sides, but we’ve left this one for Mina to take the plaudits and she’s gone for Citi to win. I’m both teams to score at +185. There’s no squirrel nest in here, by the way. There’s none of that -220. It is +185, and I’ll tell you what, we’re going to have to go a long, long way and we’re going to have to dig deep to get better than the +185 for the next seven games which is a pass from me. And it’s a pass from Mark.
Flash:
We talked about goals being in Belgium, so let’s just hope about 45 minutes on the Eurotunnel train. And we’re going to go to Amsterdam. What a great city. It has been there many, many times and enjoyed it every single time. It’s Ajax versus Dortmund. These are the two powerhouses in this group and both are going to need a win. Mina, the problem we have here is, neither side are going to want to lose because if they lose this, the chances are they’re going to finish second in the group. Goals look definitely on the cards once again.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, this was a really difficult one for me because honestly, this is one of those really fun games I expect to watch, because certainly the opposite of what would be a chess game. Both of them love to go all out and attack. Obviously we’ve got Erling Haaland for Dortmund who is always fascinating to watch. With Ajax, it is the ability of the team and the cohesion that they’ve been going through at the moment and they know how to score goals.
Mina Rzouki:
I actually don’t know what would separate the two. I would assume, we certainly know that there’s goals there because I don’t trust either defense to be very frank with you, they’re also attack minded, and they take so many risks at the back. Dortmund for me have not managed, they score nearly three goals a game, but they also concede roughly two per game, so I don’t trust either one. So we just know that it’s high scoring.
Mina Rzouki:
But honestly speaking, Ajax can be very unpredictable in this matchup. And I think Ten Hag is one of the most tactically coach, tactically capable coach, capable of really neutralizing the opponents and their strength and bringing out the best in what he has. So he can be unpredictable. You don’t know what he’s going to do. I don’t know who’s going to win this. I just see goals, and that’s pretty much all I see in this.
Flash:
Honestly, and I think a blind man sees goals in this game, Mark O’Haire. But, if you’re brave enough to go with either the home side or the away side, there’s unbelievable value. I think that if Ajax play their normal way, they’re going to play right into their visitor’s hands.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, we’ll get onto the odds in a minute, but I think the odds are really quite interesting coming into this game. I completely agree, I think it’s got the potential to be a basketball star football game here where we’ll attack you’ll attack and basically see who scores more goals. But I think in terms of the play of a player, you have to look towards Dortmund as been the superior side. And I do think they are making small strides in the right direction to probably where they were 12 months ago under Marco Rose. I think Haaland obviously being back scoring goals over the weekend is a big boost for them. But also Marco Reus who had the summer off and has come back looking really, really strong. I think Akanji has been pretty decent at center half, and Bellingham is getting better by the week. So I think there’s a lot be positive about Dortmund.
Mark O’Haire:
Ajax, you just don’t know, do you? When they, you can’t really translate that [inaudible 00:14:56] form across to Europe. And I know in the first two match days, they’ve done the business and being really quite impressive, but I think this is a real test for them. And I disagree with what the market is suggesting coming into this match.
Flash:
Well, let’s see what the market is suggesting then. Let’s have a look at those numbers because I just said to you a minute ago that you’re going to have to dig very, very deep to find better than minus one or +185 selection. Well, how about Dortmund away at +200 or Dortmund and the draw at -140. Mark O’Haire, I think they’ve got this the wrong way round and they’re showing too much respect to the home side. It’s too easy to say Ajax at +120. If Ajax were that strong, they’d be -120.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I disagree with that. Not before you’re saying that, Flash. I disagree with those prices and those lines as well. Basically what those odds are saying is, Ajax are as good or equal to Dortmund if this game was played in a neutral territory. And they’re also suggesting that if Ajax are playing in the Bundesliga, they’d finish second behind Bayern Munich, and I just can’t buy into that to be honest.
Mark O’Haire:
I think Dortmund have got the more grounded team, the better 11. I think they’re more experienced at this level, and I think they’re more than capable of going to Ajax and picking up at least a point there. So, I know Ajax hosted up against Sporting or matchday one, but Sporting were architects of their own downfall that day. They were dreadful, just defensively. Their goalkeeper had an absolute mare and again [inaudible 00:16:18]. Yes, they were comfortable, and that was a victory, they should really be winning anyhow.
Mark O’Haire:
But Dortmund for me, I think they’re finding their groove slowly but surely. And I think they’ll be very aware of Ajax’s threats and are very capable of doing the damage in transitions on the counter attack. And I just think once you got Erling Haaland fit firing and in form and ready starting in your attack, you’ve always got an opportunity to pick up something.
Mark O’Haire:
And you look to the other side of the Ajax team, yes, they’ve got some fantastic creators, but do they have the same physical, I know they’ve got physical presence in their Haller, but do they have the same sort of ability to put the ball in the back of the net from the whole entire. So yeah, a couple of Dortmund performances away from home really source to count in the memory from the past 12 months. The Sevilla game in the knockout stage and also Man City. They did lose the game to Man City at the Etihad, but they were very, very good, and I just think they’ve found their level this season under Rose. And I think that they’re more than good enough to get a point from this game.
Flash:
Okay. Well, I’ve got quite a few ways of playing this game. I think the blind man says both teams score over two and a half -140 , so there’s your stonewall banker. Then you look and think, do the away team score twice? Because if you think they do, you’re going to get +110, that gives you the ammunition then to go with the away side at +200. Mina, you said you like goals, do you fancy that Dortmund score two goals, because if they do +110, that is unbelievable value?
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, I definitely think Dortmund, they’re averaging just under three in the domestic attempt. But I wouldn’t necessarily go for a Dortmund win. I think that’s not probably where I would put my money, but it is about seeing a lot of goals, so the higher, the better for me. So that looks like the most prestigious one.
Mina Rzouki:
I do want to say one thing that when it comes to Ajax, is that they’re not dependent on one person to score their goals. They are very well shared out between the team. And I do think that when it comes to the Champions League, or at least in European competition, I think Ten Hag on a defensive level is, he’s very attacking minded, but he does have a plan A and a plan B for his defense that sometimes I didn’t see Rose having, although they have been magnificent in the domestic league. This is why for me, it is Haaland. I don’t necessarily trust all the others to score. He’s very much the star. Without him, they look a very average side, team Dortmund. But probably the money is where you’re saying. I would take that +110, that’s money.
Flash:
Yeah, +110 for two goals for Dortmund. Listen, Bellingham for me is an absolute star. You look at the likes of Sancho who’ve just gone for a 100 million euros and you’ve got Bellingham siting there. That’s why they sold him, because they’ve got a better player actually coming into their side. He’s played nearly a 100 games. He’s not even 20 yet. It’s unbelievable. He’s going to be an absolute star and he gets better week in, week out.
Flash:
Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because we’re only two games in, and we’ve given you a +185 in the first game. And this one, it’s a +200. But I am on a little caveat on that because I’m having the Dortmund over one and a half goals team total so that it pays and gives me a free hit at the away win as well. So unbelievable value pass from Mina, pass from Mark O’Haire. But again, we all seem to be in unison that we believe that there will be goals from both sides. So if you want to go with both teams to score and over two and a half goals, and it’s just -148, or -148 for Dortmund and the draw.
Flash:
Let’s move on because this next game we haven’t got a pick, but it is a massive game. It’s Atletico Madrid versus Liverpool. Liverpool just look like the old Liverpool of 18 months ago against the Atletico Madrid side where they don’t get beat very often, home, away, in their league, in the Champions League, they are just one tough nut to crack. Mina, do you see Liverpool going here and doing a job, because if you do, they are really going to shoot to the top of the Champions League winners market?
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, it’s just when you watch Liverpool at the moment, I’m just looking to see, you look at the fact that Sadio Mane has now scored a 100 goals, and none of which are penalties, which is so important to no doubt, that’s all from just open play. Mohamed Salah, is there one thing that he cannot do at the moment? Because right now he is simply unplayable. The quickness of his feet, his vision, his ability to get past defenders, you can surround him with 15 and he’s finding a way to just get through that. He has grown year in, year out, and under Klopp, he has, especially this season, truly found his confidence. And then obviously there’s, Firmino, there’s Diogo Jota, there’s whoever club wants to put in.
Mina Rzouki:
It is also the strength of their midfield that can offer the duality of the role that can contribute to the forward line and allow them to unmute, unleash everything, and of course, secure the back line. I think right now, Liverpool are probably one of, if not the best team in Europe to watch. They are simply so strong. I know that Chelsea is leading the Premier League, but I just think Liverpool are a magnificent side and made for European football.
Mina Rzouki:
Of course, Atletico are always difficult to play against them and they have been, but sometimes the decisions that Cholo has been making when it comes to European competition has surprised me because he is in the cautious side. So, not really sure how to look against that. We know that they are a tough defensively. They always have been. But again, five wins only from eight, I feel like with this Atletico Madrid side, considering where Real Madrid and Barcelona are, they should be really up there. But the fact of the matter is, that Sevilla is doing better, so for me, this is a Liverpool win.
Flash:
Yeah, I think I’ve not gone official so far in this game, Mark O’Haire, but I think that there’s a chasm between these two sides, because the forward for Liverpool. Okay. Let’s start off with obviously, Sadio Mane and obviously Moh Salah, but then you’ve got Jota, and then you’ve got Firmino. Now, the appearance of Jota seems to have injected something new into Firmino, because Firmino does all these work outside the box and let someone else get the plaudit, all of a sudden, he’s now doing his work in the box as well. And as a four, they’re probably the best four collectively in this competition.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I agree. The scoring record has been superb really so far this season. The five now isn’t a walk in the park against what there could have been double figures quite easily. Salah’s individual goal, just another sort of icing on the cake really for what has been a fantastic start of the season from him. Klopp calling him the best in the world in current form. And it’s hard to disagree with that at the moment. And I think have scored multiple goals in 10 of their 11 games across all competition this season. They’ve scored three or more in the first six away games as well, which is quite sensational, really. They’re going to get Alison and Fabinho back into the squad as well after the weekend.
Mark O’Haire:
And they were a level above Milan and Porto in their first two games. And you look at what Liverpool have done to those two teams compared to what Atleti did in their two games. A real dour nil-nil against Porto in the opening game. And I thought they were distinctly second best against Milan in the San Siro, got a really harsh red card and a really harsh penalty going in their favor, just turned the tables really. And I got out of the jail a little bit over those first two games.
Mark O’Haire:
So yeah, Atleti have tried to shift systems, shift their approach over the past three seasons a couple of times. When the big matches come around, the matches of real magnitude where they are probably considering themselves as underdogs, they go back to what they do best, which is grind to spoil, just be difficult to beat, play three center halfs and really throw play a containing counterattacking approach, and try and just get something out of the game. But I think coming into this game, they’ve got a few issues defensively. Definitely Savic is missing, Gimenez came back from international duty early with an injury. I believe he trained over the weekend, but if he does miss out, they’re playing Geoffrey Kondogbia as an emergency center half, so that’s something to watch when the team news is out.
Flash:
Yeah, let’s look at these numbers because there’s a reason … Speak ahead, Mina. You can speak while the graphics are changing, no problem at all. What was you going to say?
Mina Rzouki:
No, I was going to say I agree because they have so many problems in the back that they don’t have their back line, and Kondogbia is probably going to start there. And when you think of what it is that he has to defend against, I truly feel for him.
Flash:
Yeah. The problem I have now is that all three of us seem to be so much admiration for the visitors, Liverpool. We feel as if they’re so set up to actually go a long, long way and deep into this competition. But none of us have an official pick in this game because of the hosts. It’s Atletico Madrid, they could close up shop. We could see a performance from them where that we just see a nil-nil. But Mark O’Haire, why have we not got an official pick when all three of us unanimously feel as if the away side are the better side?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, from my point of view, I think that the market is probably just about right. So I couldn’t really find an angle to really hang my hat on confidently and say, this is a great value angle. But I think if I was to play it, so I’ll be playing a little bit more cautious on the money line. You can dip into the alternative markets on BetUS and mark Liverpool of a pick and minus a half goal start, which is effectively half your stake on the draw on a bet and a half for Liverpool of win. So if the game ends in a draw, you only lose half of your steak, which I think is a pragmatic way of approaching it.
Mark O’Haire:
But while we haven’t gotten an official pick, I think all three of us will probably be, it’s just respect towards Diego Simione and respect to Atletico Madrid, knowing that they’re well capable of turning out performance against the odds and just denying Liverpool. But to be able to be brutally honest, I think all three results are completely on the cards here. We could easily see Atleti win this game one-nil. We could still livable run away with it if the score early doors, but also, the nil-nil, the one-one has to be taken into account as well. And I think that’s the beauty of this match, such a clash of styles, so anything could really happen.
Mina Rzouki:
I also feel like-
Flash:
Yeah, Mina, do you-
Mina Rzouki:
… Yeah. When it comes to Diego Simione on Liverpool, I always feel he has a chip on his shoulder about it. And so when Diego Simione is very motivated from a psychological point of view, I always fear him, because that’s usually when he does his best work and he will look to neutralize that as much as possible. Also, I do feel Liverpool are at their best when there is a lot of space. And so they are better against teams that play football such as Milan, for example, that’s why it was such a fascinating game to watch.
Mina Rzouki:
But for me, I struggle because with Atletico, they do very know how to bury the hatches and make it very tight there. And I wonder whether it will be very fun to watch it or be nitty-gritty. In the last five matches of Atletico Madrid, there’s been three red cards, not necessarily for them, but sometimes for the opponent. They are a team that just frustrate, so somebody ends up getting sent off. So, for that reason alone, because I think cards could play a factor in this, because there is individual quality, whether it be Suarez, whether it’s Joao Felix, whether it’s obviously any of the frontline of Liverpool, individual quality can sometimes override any tactical strategy. So I’m worried with which way this can go and I’m not sure.
Flash:
And that’s why we haven’t gotten an official pick, but I’ve got to do my job and maybe highlight the top right-hand corner of Atletico not scoring at +200. Remember we’re talking about how good defensively the hosts are, but Liverpool are just as strong. I just see this maybe being draw halftime, or if you take the draw over full time at +240, we might bring in the nil-nil or the one-one. But again, the reason we haven’t gotten an official pick is because we can see Liverpool winning the game as well +125.
Flash:
So let’s move on because I have a vested interest in this next game, just because of my heart is normally always with Milan. We’re off to the beautiful city of Porto versus Milan. Mina, you are a representative of all the Italian clubs. Now, Milan, a whole host of injuries. They don’t look quite right at the weekend and they put in a dismal performance for the first hour, and 2-0 down, again strugglers, and then came back and won. That was a sign that obviously Ibrahimovic came on, Giroud came on, Rebic didn’t want any part of that game and I’m not sure that he’s going to be right. It wouldn’t surprise me though of a miraculous recovery, because after two minutes, I’m shouting at the telly, he doesn’t want it. So does that mean that Milan have got more than one eye on this competition? And this is a must-win game.
Mina Rzouki:
I think that’s what you’ve just said. It’s a must-win game. And when the pressure’s all on Milan, they usually come through. So when they were 2-0 down to Verona and you thought what’s happening there, it was very quick for Pioli. He just made the substitutions, introduced the players that can make a difference, whether it’s Rafael Leao, whether it is indeed Ziatan Ibrahimovic, or Sandra Tonali, who makes a difference in midfield these days, he will win that match.
Mina Rzouki:
Now, last year, this was something that we didn’t see from Milan. They would have probably drawn, and they did draw against Verona, but this time they won, which tells you there’s something different about them. It is against Porto. They want to make the difference. And they are aside that are very good at making up for all their absences. While you’ve mentioned the fact that they are without Brahim Diaz who is very much the creative spark of that team, they are also without Theo Hernandez who produces so much for them on the left-wing. But Calabria has been something new to them. He’s being likened to Phillip Lahm at the moment in Italy, perhaps a little bit too complimentary, but they are a team that are very good at going to the bench and seeing what they have.
Mina Rzouki:
So Saelemaekers is not doing a good job, there’s Castillejo. Tonali having a problem, then there’s Krunic. So when you have Ziatan individual quality as well as strong tactics, a strong identity and a must-win pressured situation, I think Milan’s going to go all out. So for me, this is a Milan win. And even though Porto are strong, we obviously know about everything that they have managed to accomplish, at least on a defensive level. I don’t see the same individual quality going forward, that would trouble Milan in the same way.
Flash:
No, but I’ll tell you what, if you are going to overcome it, then this Porto side, they need to get a little bit of pride back, Mark O’Haire, so it’ll just be typical that Milan go and they’re all guns blazing, and they get hit with a sucker punch, because this Porto side remember, home and away in this competition last year, they were trouble for every opponent.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, they are, and I rate Sergio Conceicao really highly as a coach who’s so on his way up in the game. I think he’ll manage it to a bigger or better club and in Europe’s top five leagues in the near future. So yeah, this is a really tricky one I found. I can make a case of both teams really. I think for Milan, they got out of jail a little bit on Saturday night against Verona where there was a few concerns there and I think injury issue is something to bear in mind. Listen to Mina, they’re talking about the potential replacements, and I think, actually, they’re not too bad.
Mark O’Haire:
But I think Tatarusanu in goal is potentially a weak link there. I do think they do lose a bit without Theo Hernandez, [inaudible 00:31:15] down the left, Brahim Diaz as well. So, we don’t know about Rabic. He might be available, he might not be. But suddenly Milan don’t look quite as strong as they possibly could be going to Porto. And I do think this is a ground, the Dragao, when there is a full crowd in there and there’s an atmosphere, they can raise the game at a couple of notches. We didn’t see against Liverpool, they were absolutely blown into pieces, but this is an absolute must-win game for both of these two teams because of the group dynamics. And that can stir teams like Porto as big underdogs to find their next level and grind something out here. So yeah, I found this one really difficult to call to be honest.
Flash:
No, I think you’re entitled to do that because the away side have got so much energy, they’ve got a little touch of class about them, and also they need to win because otherwise the Europa League spot, that obviously the third place in the group stages goes into, they’ll be up against even to qualify into that. And that’s why we’ve got such good numbers right across the board. So let’s have a little look and see where the value is if you want to play this, because I know that personally I’m cheering Milan on as I always do, and draw no bet at +110, looks like the way to go. Or I go with Milan maybe plus half a goal, and just go with the visitors not to get beat and not be too gung ho about the Italian side coming away with three points. Mina?
Mina Rzouki:
It’s funny because it’s true, Porto have only lost once at home this season and then it was to Liverpool, but it was just such a comprehensive win from the side that plays such vast attacking football that there is, for me, Porto always impressed when they are up against more robotic and strategic play teams such as A, Juventus or Jose Mourinho’s side. But when it comes to free flowing, sometimes I think that they are easily overwhelmed by a lot of energy and pressure on their back line because they’re used to a more different type of tempo. So it depends for me on the tempo, and I think that’s why I’m on Milan side.
Mina Rzouki:
I would take the Milan over one and a half, if I’m honest with you. I know that’s pretty out there. I’m not sure why, but I do feel strongly that Milan can, I don’t have anything to back it up other than what they’ve done this season. But this is a glorious start, and there is such a desire from them to prove themselves. Sergio Conceicao from all of the coaches in Portugal, he is the least naive and the most pragmatic, and he knows exactly how Milan are. And he’s so good at studying his opponent, so that does worry me. It is a difficult one, but would you say under two and a half? No. I probably think that there could be three goals in this.
Flash:
Yeah, because of desperation, Mark O’Haire, everything says on the numbers, the way that we interpret them, and we are experts in interpreting, 1-1 is the final score. So that means maybe the draw at +250 or you pick one of them and go with the pick’em. And I know that I think Milan plus half a goal, so you can have Milan and the draw at something like -135 or -140.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I think pragmatism would be my approach to this game, looking at those numbers and I’d want Milan on side, but the plus start on the pick’em. Getting half a goal start obviously does appeal as well. Everything I said about Porto to be wary, I still think Milan are probably the more likely winners, and I think the market is probably giving Porto a slightly more respect, and I probably would do myself. But ultimately that the numbers aren’t there on the page right now. But considering the dynamics of the group, how we’ve talked about the magnitude of this match, the importance of not losing and actually getting three points to get yourself back in the fight to qualify, I think everything is set up here for a really feisty niggly game full of cards incident really. We all know Porto like to get stuck here and that’s Conceicao’s way as well. Milan are more than happy to engage in the dark cards where needs be as well. So I’m expecting a high card count in this one.
Flash:
Yeah, which obviously your eyes will certainly lighten up. So let’s have a little look because I think 2-2 could well be the way. Yes, you to go +130 over one and a half goals for the home side, +155 over one and a half goals for the away side. And maybe even +250 for the draw as well. And it’s a pass for me, it’s a pass Mark O’Haire, but Mina is going with Milan draw no bet at -115, which you saw as moved. And I think it moved to around +100. So again, the market’s moving all the time, so I will put the numbers up when we do the records. So it’s Milan draw no bet around +100. So basically it’s like the pick’em.
Flash:
Let’s move on. Big game, big game. And this is my two unit banker game. It’s PSG versus Leipzig. We know all about PSG, all their stars, and Leipzig are the weeping boys of this group. They’ve been beaten at home to Brugge. They went and got hit for six in Manchester, and now they go to PSG, but PSG sit in top, Mark O’Haire. This is a banker for me. It’s now, where do I get the value?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I’m on the same page. Actually, Flash, I think PSG should be winning this reasonably comfortably. This is their bread and butter really. We talk about their league and they’re going through the motions as we saw on Friday night against Angers without their South Americans, obviously, but they still look pretty flaky and they just seemed to have on Anger there at the end of the … Just toying with them really, [crosstalk 00:36:54]
Flash:
Like a cat playing with a mouse.
Mark O’Haire:
It was, it was really. But yeah, they come alive on Champions League night, particularly in Paris. The fans will be behind them. The crowd will be really buoyant. And I think we’ve seen in their performance against Man City whilst they weren’t the better team on the day, they were still able to engineer a victory. And you just look at the quality that can come into the team after Friday, I know Neymar’s missing, but Messi and Marquinhos, Di Maria will be missing as well. But I think crucially for me, just having Verratti in that midfield just gives them that bit more balance between defense and attack really, he’s just kind of that show point for me when I look to PSG in these big games.
Mark O’Haire:
And yeah, I looked at the price really of what PSG were last year when they met Leipzig and to see where they are now. And yes, PSG have come in shortly, and that’s understandable really. Last year it was played without fans and without Messi, and Messi can move a market like no other really. So it’s understandable really. But you just look at the Leipzig team that played 12 months ago, not just losing Nagelsmann but losing three of their best players, Konate, Upamecano and Sabitzer as well. It’s going to be very difficult for them. And they still seem to be finding their feet under Jesse Marsch. Another disappointing display against Freiburg on Saturday, where they drew when they were second best. And the pressure is starting to mount on him. I’m sure he’s got a bit more time in the bank, but this is a really difficult game. And certainly after losing to Brugge, this is not one they can afford to lose heavily either. If they do, you can start looking and preparing for the Europa League at best.
Flash:
Yeah.
Mina Rzouki:
Wow.
Flash:
Mina, you love soccer and you love romance, so put them both together and we’re off to Paris. Do you see anything other than a comfortable PSG win?
Mina Rzouki:
No, I’m just glad that this is going to be sort of a 4-0. The only thing that stops [crosstalk 00:38:35]
Flash:
… you like that?
Mina Rzouki:
… the only thing that stops me from doing that is because sometimes with PSG, they have the ability to implode, so I do wander there. But this is, just like Mark said, it’s a side that has been rotating it’s first 11 and that’s why you see so many individual mistakes from their players because they’re yet to really get to grip with what it is they’re being asked to do on a tactical level. I think they don’t have yet a clear identity.
Mina Rzouki:
Another thing that really worries me is they cannot defend anything that comes from the wings. They are very poor, much better when they’re just narrow, but then they just give so much space. And when you have Kylian Mbappe running at you at speed, I worry about what they can do against that. So for me, I can’t see Leipzig getting out of this. It’s just about whether or not they’re going to click on every level PSG and manage to mount sort of a 5-0 win or whether it will just be a simple 2-0 clean sheet, because I really don’t see Leipzig doing very much. But then I don’t trust that PSG back line either, so.
Flash:
Right, 2-0. We settled for 2-0 and I’ll show you why I stick them numbers up because the value in this game, I don’t care who you are, I’ll argue with anybody, is it’s a free hit. This is a two unit banker for me. The banker of the whole competition. Happy to go up against anybody. PSG win the game. So then it’s a free hit at -120 of PSG -1. I see a minimum of 2-0. I see there’s a massive gulf. And also after the result they got against Manchester City, they couldn’t really put the pressure on because Man City are playing away in Brugge. Mark O’Haire, I don’t care about any of the numbers on there, the big one is for me. -1 -120, the home side win comfortably.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I agree. It’s my best bet in this game as well. PSG time record in the group play is going back to 2017 is 11 wins, one draw, and one defeat. They’ve beaten Man City, beaten Real Madrid and beaten Bayern Munich in that sample, and their team has probably been weaker than it is coming into this match as well. So yeah, I expect them to win the game and win the game reasonably comfortably.
Mark O’Haire:
Leipzig won just twice in their last nine games now. Their only away win this season came in the Bochum in the season and against Sandhausen in the second tier. They’ve kept one clean sheet in their 11 Champions League games and conceded twice or more in their last six Champions League games. And obviously that straddles Nagelsmann’s brain as well. So, just this season, they’ve considered 10 goals against Bayern Munich and Man City alone. We talked earlier about Brugge beating them and winning the xG count despite leading at half time in that match, which was quite alarming for me.
Mark O’Haire:
I don’t think they’re functioning yet in both boxes. I still think they can possibly go on the score sheet here. Certainly Nkunku is in fine form this season and going back to Paris to play his old club. So, there is an opportunity for Leipzig to make their mark, but ultimately I don’t think they’re good enough defensively to keep PSG out from scoring [crosstalk 00:41:27]
Flash:
Mark, I agree. And then I think that is the problem, that if you can picture how this game will set up, there’s no doubt in my mind that Leipzig are not going to hold a high line. They’re going to be basically camped maybe five yards outside the edge of their box early, before they start dropping, which then means the gap from their defense, Leipzig’s, two Leipzig strikers, is going to be 60, 70 yards, and then you’re isolated. If you’re isolated against this PSG side, Mina, they will pick you off. They will then just be way after way, after way. I see this been okay, VAR or anything could give their away side a goal, but I see that this is a minimum, 2-0, 3-1.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, I agree with you. And that’s why you see such huge results for the opponent, the big opponents, Manchester City’s or Bayern’s, they will win and heavily against them because like you said, they don’t understand how to compress themselves very much. And you can see this team getting very stretched. So for me, it’s when they do concede, one, too confidence goes and then all of a sudden they are overwhelmed at the back. So I do see this either being sort of a 2-0, at most, 3-1, but Leipzig do have a habit of when they are finding their rhythm and when they score one, they could score a lot more. But like Mark just said, two out of the last nine that they’ve won, so it’s tragic to watch, especially when you see them defending, they are also easily overwhelmed against skill and so poor on the wings that I don’t trust them at all.
Flash:
Yeah. I don’t mind watching it to be honest. I know what you’re saying is a bit harsh on them, but we had Brugge in the last game. And we’re about making money, and if I can pick on a team and Leipzig are overrated for me, because I cannot believe this -1 is not like -155 and we’re getting -120, it’s a [crosstalk 00:43:15]
Mark O’Haire:
… Flash is the group dynamics also play into the -1, I think as well, because Leipzig need the results. And at some point they’re going to have to start pressing forward because they’ll be well aware if they loose this game in Paris, it’s pretty much game over for them. And that can be fatal really, playing this PSG team.
Flash:
Yeah. But the thing is, it’s probably exactly what Leipzig need, because Leipzig is struggling to maintain a challenge for Europe in the Bundesliga. So for them to then go into the Europa League and play Thursday Sunday, Thursday Sunday, I think it could be to the detriment of their future success.
Flash:
Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Good point made by Mark O’Haire as well as Mina saying about the strength of PSG. Look at that. That’s how much of a banker it is. Mark O’Haire and I are both in agreement. Mina just thinks that it’s PSG all the way, and she leaves us to find the value. So good teamwork there. It’s PSG -1 three here at -120. We’ll be shocked if we’re not picking up on worst case scenario is that we’re getting our money back. So we love them, insurance policies of -1, that PSG to win.
Flash:
Okay, move on. No pick in this next game, but we have to talk about it because it’s Chelsea, the reigning champions, against the group’s weeping boys in Malmo. Malmo have got no points. Chelsea have just been to Turin and got beaten even though they shouldn’t have done, but don’t get me started on that one. Now, we haven’t got a pick. I must state this, but now I think it’s not because we don’t feel as if we know how the game’s going to go, it’s going to be proved, but we don’t know how to get the value. Mina, how do you see this game going?
Mina Rzouki:
I think it’s a 4-0 Chelsea, to be honest with you.
Flash:
4-0 straight away, bang. And I’ll tell you what, there’s not a lot of value in that by the way.
Mina Rzouki:
This is the point. I think that that’s why we probably haven’t really gotten a pick because I did think about this, but in my head, I’m like the value is not really worth it on this level. We know that Chelsea are having a fair few problems in getting the attack to click. We know Lukaku is a splendid striker, but perhaps not yet at the level that we saw from him in Inter. As they try to figure it all out, is Werner the best person to play alongside him? How do we get runners into the team?
Mina Rzouki:
On an attacking level, I’m not sure Chelsea can click. But Malmo are such a terrible opponent that a Juventus team that can buy a win in Serie A were defeating them and then scoring goals at ease at will. They suffer against any type of pace, any type of skill. They’re so easily overwhelmed and they surrender far too quickly. So for me, I just don’t see a point of really going into this because it seems like Chelsea are just so powerful for this team that why are we even looking at it?
Flash:
And the problem I’ve got Mina is they don’t score over three goals. Yes, where they should be scoring four and five. And the dynamics of this group is not going to come down to goal difference. So it doesn’t matter if they’ve been 1-0 or 6-0, because the dynamics of this group will be how they get on against Juventus at Stamford Bridge. So it’s going to be one of those where how do we find value? We know and fully expect, they have Chelsea, but basically, if Chelsea don’t win this, then they will end up being second in the group, Mark O’Haire, and no one with the Southwest London side will want that.
Mina Rzouki:
Sorry, Flash. But they’re always going to end up second in the group. It’s Juventus, what are you talking about?
Flash:
Oh, my God, there you go. I cannot wait until we get to the Zenit Juve game, Mina.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, it’s hard to really comment too much on this game because the market makes Chelsea a 90% favorite. So they win this game 90% of the time it’s played. 67%, the market is saying they win it without conceding. I think that’s probably fair enough considering the defensive numbers they’ve turned out under Thomas Tuchel.
Mark O’Haire:
But my one concern about Chelsea really, and we’ve talked about it on the Premier League show a couple of times is, they’ve not let themselves since the September international break, when they went into that, off the back of that performance at Anfield with 10 men where we were all lauding them as just being this is the European champions, the potential Premier League champions in waking, because they were so good that day, considering the circumstances, but they haven’t hit those heights since. You looked at their performance over the weekend, they were second best against Brentford. Mendy, man of the match, in a narrow away win. So there are a couple of concerns, but yeah, I go back to what Mina said. I don’t know why we’re really analyzing this game in depth because it is Malmo, it is at Stanford bridge, and it should be a routine 4-0 win.
Flash:
There you go. There’s another 4-0. Let’s have a quick look at the numbers and that’s the reason why we’re not actually going with an official pick. Because if you have a little look, Malmo, beaten to not score is -265, Chelsea -1100. End of, Chelsea win the game, good luck, three points, no money to be earned. We’re here to earn money. Let’s have a little look at the official picks please, because they’re all, I’ve told you already, it’s going to be pass, pass, pass. Well, we have not got a pick on this so we’re going to spend all morning looking at it. Come on, get my official picks up, please. There’s no official picks, so move on.
Flash:
That’s what I mean. There’s no official picks. I move on to the next game. Okay, let’s go to Manchester. It’s Chelsea and Malmo still, don’t worry about it, it’s just going to go to Manchester versus Atalanta. And there it is. Manchester United versus Atalanta. Big game this. Remember Man United got beat early on in the campaign against Young Boys. Atalanta scraped through in their last game. Mina, they seem to be finding a little bit of rhythm, a little bit of form. A couple of players are now starting to look a little bit fitter, Ilicic and Zapata. This is a dangerous game for both of these teams.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah, it is dangerous because here’s the thing, Atalanta are very good at finding people to make up for any of their absences, a little bit like Milan I spoke about earlier, but they do have some heavy absences. And for a while now their coach has been speaking about the fact that Ilicic who has been the difference maker when it comes to the big matches, you remember he was huge against Liverpool last season. He hasn’t really been performing to the level that we’ve seen, nor is he in the shape or form or type of conditioning that we need from a player to make the difference in high-level matches.
Mina Rzouki:
Of course, he came through against Empoli, but I need to emphasize Empoli are newly promoted and not exactly the most amazing side to watch. But Zapata is back to scoring. We know there are so much talent there. But they are without Pessina, they are without Robin Gosens who makes such a difference, Djimsiti had a bore. But they do have Luis Muriel who’s back to scoring or at least making the difference.
Mina Rzouki:
Here’s what I want to emphasize. We know that if we’re talking about individual quality, then of course, Manchester United have it. They have Ronaldo, they have Mason Greenwood, they have Paul Pogba, Fernandez, you name it. But in terms of team and actual tactics and its strategy for on the ball and off the ball, very few are as good as Gian Piero Gasperini in arranging aside. And I think this is where you look at individual quality versus the team. And what Atalanta do so well is make it a man on man dual across the pitch. So you have to get pass to a man and they are up for a fight. So for me, I can’t see them losing. Not necessarily winning, I just can’t see them loosing.
Flash:
I think that’s fair. It’s one of those you could look after the event, Mark O’Haire, and say that Man United are at -140, or are they were obviously going to win it? But Atalanta and Man United just screams goals.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, I think it’s going to be a goal filled game. I think it’s got the potential to be a really exciting, interesting and entertaining game for us neutrals really, and I certainly want to be with goals. I really, really want to be of Atalanta because United, well, that performance against Leicester was just sort of the tip of the iceberg really. Defensively, it was an absolute shambles. And I couldn’t believe their luck really when they made it 2-2, because they’d been second best throughout. But then to switch off and allow Leicester back in, after you just managed to equalize was school boy stuff really, and I felt a little bit sorry for Maguire because he wasn’t, he clearly wasn’t 100% fit to play that game. We were told he was [crosstalk 00:51:48]
Flash:
And he’s not the best when he is 100% fit. Don’t even get me started on that. Everyone knows I’m happy to put the boot into him. Listen, he’s got to be one of the worst players to get as many cups as he’s got for England. I cannot believe it.
Mina Rzouki:
Flash, I agree
Flash:
He’s at the forefront of every single Man United mistake. Whenever they let a goal in, he’s always looking around as whose fault was it? Yours. You mark space. Space has never scored a goal. Get up against, see what you’ve done? You’ve got me here and you knew you were doing that Mark O’Haire. [inaudible 00:52:18] and I didn’t even think about something like defending him.
Mina Rzouki:
No, no, I don’t want to defend him, but I’m saying he doesn’t need to be in top form to actually go and get the ball, but he’s sitting there waiting for it to be delivered to him. And obviously that’s how you can see it. This is school boy stuff. In my head I’m like, you don’t even need to be in your best physical condition, but surely, surely your authority and your ability should speak for itself. But he’s somebody who also, for me, he’s never well-positioned, which is why you’re always seeing him do some drastic measures.
Flash:
Oh, I love you, Mina. Honestly, your opinion on this beautiful game has just gone through the roof because yeah, where was we Mark before you brought up that nasty name?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, you can’t be backing United at the moment. Not the prices, not for the lines either, just because it’s, Saturday wasn’t the first time, was it? It’s been ongoing for quite sometime.
Flash:
No, don’t start me again.
Mark O’Haire:
We can all see the issues of Man United, why have you not strengthened the defensive midfield area for a start? But also for everything Ronaldo brings to your game, you lose it in a defensive aspect, and you just saw Matic getting completely overrun in midfield at the weekend. It was shocking really, and there’s no quick switch to change things, I think, with Solskjaer in charge, and they are vulnerable this weekend.
Mark O’Haire:
My issue really is between whether I really pull the trigger properly on Atalanta this mid-week is, I don’t think they’ve got to their best so far this season. They seem to be very stop-start and very inconsistent. They’re normally dominating all the data rankings in Serie A in terms of shots, xG, chances created, but they’re not inside the top five this time around. All their wins are coming against bottom half teams. I didn’t think they convinced against Young Boys, particularly in the first half. I didn’t think they were fantastic against Villareal on matchday one either.
Mark O’Haire:
Mina has mentioned the injuries as well, but ultimately it comes down to the coach and the team aspect and the streets ahead of what United can produce. And hopefully Zapata and Muriel start finding their feet and finding confidence in scoring goals freely. I think it’s great to see Ilicic back to scoring goals. He scored a blinder for Slovenia in the international break. Malinovskyi has got a hammer on the left foot who can score from distance. So I just thought rather than try and support either team, I just want to give goals in this game, because I think it’s going to be pretty end to end.
Mina Rzouki:
Can I also say one thing on Atalanta is that they are a team that sometimes just play their game, but when they do, at least, if you see the pattern of their last few years in the Champions League, they raised their game when they face a Liverpool or Manchester City. They did that tremendous game against Manchester City and earned the draw then they came and defeated Liverpool. They try to make the difference in the games that they think will please the fans. So United for them is big enough for them to really try to inflict that defeat and make Gasperini happy because there is this ego thing that he has. So I’m interested to see if they can raise their game or what he will do on a tactical level, because it really is more about him than it is about what the players can do.
Flash:
And let me just stick the boot in a little bit more. The Manchester United played Villarreal in the earlier game in this group, Villarreal, you should have scored six. I’m not saying should have as in, “Oh, they add a few half chances?” They had six golden opportunities from inside the six yard box and then they ended up winning 2-1. So for me, blind man says both teams score, given. Over two and half goals, given. Combine them, let’s have a little look at the numbers because this is not a game you pick the winner, you pick goals because there’s no chance of it being 0-0, famous last words. Look at this, over one and a half at home side -170. Over one and a half for the away side +165. Over three goals in the game at -125. It’s almost lopsided Mark O’Haire, and it’s pushing me towards Atalanta score twice at +165.
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, Man United defended at the moment you wouldn’t be opposing that. Just look at United price at -130, and it just really, it stinks the place really. I think-
Flash:
And it was -140 before that. They obviously weren’t getting much action at -140, were they?
Mark O’Haire:
Yeah, the market’s starting to really go against the United for the first time in quite some time, because you look at the prices of Villarreal, the prices for Everton went off Old Trafford in their games. United are a much bigger price than they were in those two matches. And Everton and Villarreal, and only Everton got results out of those two teams, but Villa went there as well and produced the goods. So I’m absolutely well aware that Atalanta can go there and get a result. But yeah, I’d rather go down the goals routes.
Mark O’Haire:
I think Atalanta really kept two clean sheets this season across all competitions, even when they seem to have open them up a couple of times at the weekend. United kept just one clean sheet. Atalanta you’re seeing both teams scoring in seven of 10, United in eight of 10. There’s been three goals or more in six of United’s 10 games and seven of Atalanta’s 10. So yeah, I’m just going to combine the two, the two angles really as you said, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals, and then I can just sit back and enjoy the game.
Flash:
What price is that, Mark? I know we’re going to have look at the official picks in a while, but I want to get-
Mark O’Haire:
I gotten 1.8 in decimals.
Flash:
So it’s -115. So you’re getting -115 for a 75% chance. Well, 75% chance when you have say Man United versus Atalanta and Man United has 75% favorites, then surely they’re going to be like -175, -200, and maybe even -225. So you’re getting so much value on just going to goals and over. Mina, do you like Atalanta not to get beaten in this game?
Mina Rzouki:
Yes, that’s where my money would go is, for sure I can’t see them being beaten. And I do see that over two goals. I know we spoke about, a lot of people have mentioned this in the sense that Ronaldo’s addition makes it difficult for the team to defend, but I’m really sorry if you had any strategy to teach these players on how to position themselves off the ball, then you don’t need to worry about what Ronaldo is doing. They have no understanding of how to press. They have no understanding that Wan-Bissaka can get out of position and nobody’s back there to fall into space, to cover, to shift. There is absolutely no understanding of what to do when possession is lost.
Mina Rzouki:
And when I look at that side and I think of players like Malinovskyi, who are so technically perfect. I know Maehle seems to do better I hope with the international shadow of Denmark than he manages to do for Atalanta, but there is a lot of skill there. And if you’re looking at just tactical arrangement, God, Manchester United are really quite shockingly poor when it comes to tactical strategies or any strategy. But individual quality makes the difference. They do have Ronaldo, they do have Mason Greenwood, they do have Bruno Fernandez. And Atalanta can be very silly in giving away silly penalties, so I can’t choose them as override winners, but I do see so many goals here and them scoring at least two and not losing this match because they need to win it.
Flash:
I know +165. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because I actually left this game alone even though it was all about goals for me. Atlanta plus and over 0.5 says Atlanta, and the draw at +110. For me, it’s a straight pass, but Mark O’Haire, over two and a half goals, plus both teams to score at -125. Yeah, I just see goals and just stay clear of the money line.
Flash:
Let’s go to our last game, which I’ve been looking forward to and we’re off to Russia. It’s Zenit St. Petersburg hosting Juve. Juve top in the group. Juve starting to look like the old Juve. A little bit more energy, they’re passing the ball crisply, and then not letting goals in mostly because the referee is disallowing opposition goals like over the weekend, Mina.
Mina Rzouki:
Are you saying they are cheating their way to [crosstalk 01:00:06]
Flash:
No, not cheating. They’re only cheating me. You know I had the draw and [inaudible 01:00:10] and then Roma get a goal disallowed. Oh, but we’ll give you a penalty because you might miss that.
Mina Rzouki:
Well, actually, can I just let you know is that if they didn’t give the penalty and they would have just allowed the goal and played advantage, it would have been choked off because there was a handball from Mkhitaryan and we know-
Flash:
No, because this is again Juve.
Mina Rzouki:
… It’s a handball from Mkhitaryan. But one thing I can say is, well, they should have let them retake the penalty because Chiellini was in the area. But that’s it. I am being objective, and I’m telling you Juventus-
Flash:
Yeah, that’s the smallest bit of objectivism I’ve ever seen against Juve. Anyway, Juve go to Russia. Tough place to go. Okay. Juve have started to look a little bit better, but this is a tough place to go, and is it going to come really quickly after such a big, tough game over the weekend?
Mina Rzouki:
Well, here’s the thing, it’s very difficult for Juventus because they were without Alex Sandro. And actually it turned out to be, some of their south American contingent because they had to arrived late. But what makes the difference for them is that they do have players they can rely on who will make the difference. They are very much like Milan and even Atlanta. So it was Mattia De Sciglio who provided a terrific performance for Juventus who hasn’t played for some time. They are without Dybala, they are without Rabiot, and they are without De Light. But we know Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci are perhaps the best center back pairing.
Mina Rzouki:
Szczesny is back to full confidence. He saved a penalty. He’s doing extremely well right now. And there is the opportunity that, obviously Alvaro Morata could start this match. I don’t see this being anything other than a straight 1-0 victory for Juventus. It is the team they were in the mid 90s. It is the team they are under Allegri, and it was once [inaudible 01:01:50] on the hand of Angelo Di Livio, a symbol of Juventus, 1-0 is their favorite score line and they will try to go with that.
Mina Rzouki:
Zenit for me are a team that love to control possession. They’ve had two back-to-back losses at the moment, even though they’ve had overwhelming control of the ball. They’ve dominated and bossed the mid field, and yet lost. And for me, they are the perfect team and they will play straight into the hands of a very counter attacking direct Juventus side that has Federico Chiesa, that has Alvaro Morata. So on a tactical level, I can see straight with their technique, how much they can overwhelm the Zenit side. So I don’t actually even see Zenit trying to even provide much of a threat because they don’t have the ability to get past that in my opinion, just because of the way their tactics and the way that they are set up, they want to build. And I don’t think they can do that with such narrow lines that Juventus puts out.
Flash:
Okay, that’s the downside of live production. I cannot edit any of that out because I want to be with Zenit. I think that Zenit are really, really good side, so please tell me that you’re not with Juve as well, Mark O’Haire.
Mark O’Haire:
I am. I don’t think Zenit are a very good team at all. And I think you said at the start that Juve going to Russia is a very tough place to go. I think that’s long gone to be honest. I think the Russian teams and Ukrainian teams are a player limitation of what we probably saw five, 10 years ago really. You look at Russian football, how far it has fallen, just look at the UEFA coefficients and their rankings of the leagues across Europe. Russian has fallen. Russian Premier League has fallen to ninth on the ranking list, which is behind Australia. And it’s literally just above Scotland at the moment. And there’s a very real opportunity this season that the Scottish Premiership could overtake the Russian Premier League in UEFA’s coefficients, which is just telling you really how far Russian football has fallen at the moment. They’ve managed one group stage win at the Champions League in the last 20, that’s Russian teams. And that was Zenit against Malmo last time out. So it’s going to be very difficult for them. They normally dominate Russian football.
Flash:
Sorry, Mark. I’m sorry, but why are you laughing so much when you know that I want to be with Zenit, and you’ve put the boot into me, and now Mark O’Haire has just got the other boot and he’s going in as well?
Mina Rzouki:
You know what it is, is because you don’t think Zenit are very good, you just want to make sure Chelsea win the whole group.
Flash:
There you go. There you go. See, I’m never going to rob a bank with you, Mina, because you’ve just outed my reasons. Rob a bank, it was him. Okay, Mark O’Haire, what’s the score? Where are we going to get value? Can you talk over these numbers for me? So let’s get the numbers up and you tell me where you fancy the value is for the away side to get something.
Mark O’Haire:
Well, I think Juventus plus money to win the match is immediately quite appealing. They’ve drifted a little bit in the market since the opening show. They were odds on favorites to win in Russia, and that’s now drifted to 120. And I think that’s basically just the market reacting to the underlying numbers, because Juventus over the last two years have switched tact to try and have Pirlo whose solely into playing a bit more progressive football, whereas the reality under Allegri is go back to basics and go back to what made Juventus so strong over the past 15, 20 years, which is just playing winning football. And that’s win at any cost really. We saw against Roma, get the lead, grind to battle, work hard for everything that needs to be done to protect and preserve that advantage. And I think they’re not trying to be flashy or dominant, they’re just getting the work, getting the job done, really.
Mark O’Haire:
As mentioned about the team news as well, which is reasonably positive compared to where it was coming into that Chelsea match. Morata is back in the squad now as well. And I think they’ve got the ability to go to Russia and stifle Zenit team who, even by my rankings are actually third in Russia based on underlying numbers, expected points. They’ve kept one lead clean sheet all season, which is pretty poor. And also, they’ve lost nine of the last 12 in this competition as well.
Mark O’Haire:
So last year they played at home to Brugge. Last year in Dortmund they managed one point. So I think Juventus can go there, get a goal and then just protect and preserve what they’ve got. So +120 appeals, but my best bet I’ve actually dipped into the alternative markets on the website again, which is Juventus as a pick’em and -0.5, which is basically Juventus. Draw no bet and Juventus to win combined. So if the game ends in a draw, we only lose half of our stake, but if Juventus win we get a full stakes out, the only way in which you lose your full stake is if Zenit win the game, which personally, I can’t see. Sorry, Flash.
Flash:
No, you’re not sorry. That was the most … No, insincerity is not one of your … Listen, that is just rude, Mark O’Haire. Because all the numbers on there, and we have to work with numbers and you are one of the best at just getting away from emotion and looking at numbers. Okay? They’re saying it’s a draw. They’re saying that this game is either a 0-0 or a 1-1 draw. The draw is at +220. And how on earth are Zenit plus half a goal, so Zenit and the draw have -140, Mina? They’re saying that this is a dour game. Maybe a draw half time, and Zenit get the game, Mina.
Mina Rzouki:
You lost the match. You’ve dominated possession. You have over 70%, you have what, 20 odd shots on goal and you can’t win. I think that says a lot about Zenit, and that’s just their domestic game. Look at the fact that they are facing a side that has Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci and that have been described as a Harvard professors by Jose Mourinho. A strong defensive unit that knows how to play with very tight lines.
Mina Rzouki:
Juventus aren’t thrilling to watch. I understand why people don’t necessarily think this is going to be an aesthetically fun match to watch, but what they are very good at is the basics, which is very tight lines, suffocating the opponent. And if anything, I look at that +175 of under a half goal for Zenit, and I think that looks rather tasty as well, because Juventus has three 1-0 in a row, five wins in a row. Allegri is the master of weeping them into defensive shape. And they have the ability right now to keep possession up is also back in the team, so that’s another thing to look at. And they’re direct and fast, and they know how to suffer for the results.
Mina Rzouki:
I only see with Zenit, their confidence is also extremely low at the moment, so I don’t really see how, from any point of view other than Dzyuba, I don’t see any great individual quality here that can make the difference to that back line.
Flash:
Okay. Under two and a half goals in the game at -120 is another angle. Now, remember get yourselves in the chat. I know you’ve already said you want to talk about Salzburg versus Wolfsburg, but let’s have a look at the official picks please, because I know that we’ve got official picks in this game. And one was a lot more confident before we started this chat. Pass for Mina, for me, Zenit +0.5 -130, and Juve pick’em and -0.5 -130, which means if it’s a draw, Mark O’Haire only loses half his stake. But remember under two and a half goals at -120 looks like it should be and could be the way to go. I’m looking forward to our next time when we talk about Champions League on the back of a Zenit 6-0 win or something better than that. [crosstalk 01:09:08] I don’t know why these two just laugh at me.
Mark O’Haire:
If it was late December or late November I probably would have agreed.
Flash:
That was it. Oh, my God, I thought it might be March so you’d forget about it and not be [crosstalk 01:09:20]
Mark O’Haire:
If the game was taking place then in deep Russian winter, then obviously there’s an opportunity, I think, for the opponents who just can’t just be not at their best. I think that’s the only you get your big underdog victories in Russia and Ukraine, but at the moment, I think Juve should be more than cunning enough to go there and get a result.
Flash:
Yep, and as Mina rightfully said, mine’s coming from my heart and not my head, but when it’s Juve, she only has a heart. So she’s obviously calling the kettle black. Okay, all the pot calling the kettle black. Let’s go for this Q&A. The first game that we want to talk about is Salzburg versus Wolfsburg. I’ve gone with Salzburg. It isn’t an official pick. They were at +125 and they’re now around the +100. By the way, that’s a 25% move for the home side. I saw Wolfsburg at weekend close up. They are struggling. I see the home side scoring goals. I’m not sure what we’re going to get from Wolfsburg, so I’m happy to go, talk of around +120. It is now +100. Mark O’Haire, any opinion on Salzburg versus Wolfsburg?
Mark O’Haire:
Not massively. I tend to agree Wolfsburg were very disappointing in the first couple of rounds of the Champions League. I expected plenty. And it looked like Mark van Bommel had just carried on the good work from last season, really, but things are starting to unravel in recent weeks, and they do look vulnerable going to Salzburg team who are more than capable of getting results. So yeah, I certainly wouldn’t be on the away team in that game.
Flash:
Okay. And the other question is, Mina, there’s no need for you to get involved in Salzburg versus Wolfsburg?
Mina Rzouki:
I just want to say one thing is that, if they are without Karim Adeyemi upfront in really their forward line, then can they really score the goals? I know Wolfsburg are horrendous and they do have injury consents and they still-
Flash:
Exactly. Exactly, and you might as well have said that Mark O’Haire could play upfront for Salzburg and they would still win. Now, here’s a question for you very quickly. This will be the last one. So it says, Flash, but I’ll just change that. Mina, who will win the Ballon d’Or? Messi, Lewandowski or Benzema?
Mina Rzouki:
Well, obviously, I think it should be Benzema, but I don’t think-
Flash:
There you go. There you go. And that’s the reason I gave it to you because I know that you think that he is the best player on the planet at the moment.
Mina Rzouki:
Yeah.
Flash:
Anyway, it’s been a really, really good show and I hope you have a great couple of days of Champions League lines. Remember you can see Mina on Serie A show on Thursday. Mark will be leading the way on Thursday morning, which is 10:00 Eastern time for the Premier League show on the back of a two-and-0 selections at the weekend. But listen, please subscribe and press the bell so you don’t miss any of our content again.
Flash:
We’re going to do the best bets in a minute. I just heard like some voice in my ears saying that I’m going to put up a best bets, but yes, I’m going to put up a best bet so that you can have a little read about what we’re going to do. But first of all, I was going to say about 125% bonus, but I’m not going to do that now because I’m going to put up the best bets and there they are. And by the way, my PSG -1 -120 is a banker. I’m not going to read them out. You watched the show, you watched the clips, there they are.
Flash:
Now we are America’s favorite sports book because we give you something back. Go over to betus.com and you will get 125% sign up bonus up to $2500. And all you’ve got to do is put in a promo code of Champions 2021. Promo code of Champions 2021 and you get 125% bonus up to $2500. Really looking forward to this week of soccer, especially a certain game in Russia. Thank you, Mina. Thank you, Mark O’Haire. I’m PSG in my banker by the way, you take care.
