Flash:
Yeah. And obviously in the chat we’ve got Anchor coming out with “Real Madrid is still 12 to one to retain the Champions league. When were the books ever learn?” Listen, yeah 12 to one does seem a little bit big for a side that’s been there, seen it, done it, and on their day more than a match for anyone. Okay, listen, we’ve got seven games coming up so let’s kick off with the first one because we’re going to go to it’s group H and it’s Benfica versus Juventus and Benfica plus 100 been so impressed with them. Juventus at plus 290 need a performance and hope that that then brings them free points. The draw is at plus 260, the under over’s at two and a half with the over being at minus 115. Mina, Juventus just to score is minus 215. But Benfica to score twice is at minus 105. It’s a tough ask if we see the same Juventus who’s putting a performance like they did against Maccabi.
Mina:
Yeah, this is what was interesting. I mean like Allegri the coach of Juventus loves to say they had a bad week, but that was a lot more destructive than just a bad week, let’s be honest with you. And even when you wanted to see a reaction from them and said, “Yeah, they lost a Milan.” So it really has been taking its toll. Juve have had so many new players come in, they have had injury problems, don’t get me wrong, but you expect better performances when you consider the individuals written on the sheet. But I do feel like ever since they’ve gone on what we call a training retreat in Italy, like [inaudible 00:06:53] where they all have to stay together, sort of bond together, try to figure out their problems, they have been better. What has changed is their physical condition. Juventus have been a team that have started matches well, and then fallen off sort of after the 20th minute.
And you saw that against Benfica when it was played in Churin. They started off really well and then just completely fell away. Their physical condition seems to have improved. They are now growing into matches and producing better second halfs than they have done. They won [inaudible 00:07:19] and they won against Napoli, their first back to back wins. That doesn’t mean they’re good enough to play Benfica because Benfica are a mature side. While I think that Porto are a lot more entertaining to watch, Roger Schmidt has created a side that really knows how to play the moments really well. They know when their chances will come. They’re never in a panic and they know how to play the opponent more than the game, if that makes sense. As for Juventus, they have everything that they need to win this. They have the physicality, they have a good team, they obviously have a lot of players out for this.
Angel Di Maria being one of them now they’ve lost Paredes too. But their midfield seems to have found a rhythm with Locatelli and Rabiot and whether or not they’ll play McKennie remains to be seen in the middle. But I do think their midfield is creating more. It’s just about whether or not Lavage can convert those opportunities. I don’t know, because I look at Benfica and I think I thought Porto was so much better, but obviously they went down to 10 men and Benfica undefeated so far this season. Lots of wins, lots of draws, but a lot of draws too. So if Juventus can be the overwhelming physical vertical side they can be, they can win this. Will that show side show up? I doubt it.
Flash:
Yeah. Listen, I’ve wrote here mismatch in the midfield areas. Benfica keep the ball and also they’ve got runners off the ball. They’ve far more athletic, I cannot trust Juve. Yeah they’ve had that little mini bounce. But who have they actually played. There’s a class difference here and you’ve got a home side. Listen, they’re level one points with PSG who have played twice. They win both their games they could actually end up winning this group and avoiding some of the big guns. So for me, I cannot believe, first of all, Benfica are plus 100 to win the game. Marco here.
Marco:
I found this game really difficult.
Flash:
You made this case for Juve.
Mina:
Yeah, of course you can.
Flash:
Oh whoa, whoa. How can you? No, no that’s bias.
Marco:
What I was going to say is, and this is coming from someone who’s been pro Benfica from the outset really, but I feel like they’re on the verge of being overrated now. I feel like people are-
Flash:
That’s typical of me turning. Yeah, I’m honestly I turn up, I’m like always the bridesmaid and then I turn up for the funeral. I understand that totally. But what you’ve seen from Juve against this Benfica side, you can only go by what you’ve seen and what they’ve put up and it’s a mismatch.
Marco:
It’s still Juventus in a massive high pressurized game basically as the underdogs now being written off, Lavage kind of being written off as well. And I take everything Mina said as well and there seems to be a settled side and settled outlook now with Juve and Cuadrado and Costage on the flanks and there is ability in that team without a doubt. And if they want to turn up, they can absolutely give Benfica a game. I mean I sound like I’m being negative on Benfica and I’m really not meaning to because they have just drawn back to back games against PSG now required as two points from the last two games to qualify, which is an exceptional achievement really. They’ve had a very settled side. They’ve made just one change to their starting 11 in the Champions League so far, which is remarkable really considering we’ve been playing for almost two months now.
And yeah, they performed heroics really deservedly beat Juventus in Churin and obviously the have a massive shot of confidence after matching PSG home and away. They created by far the better opportunities at home to PSG match day three and then restricted PSG 27 shots in Paris, which that takes on doing really. So they were pretty average against Maccabi on match day one it must be said. So yeah, I do find this one difficult. They’re going to be sort of energy sapped after Friday night playing with 10 men for a long time. They were second best for most of that match against Porto. They’re very fortunate to even go on a halftime level really. But they do offer a threat going forward. They’ve scored an all by one game this season, so I expect Benfica to score, of course they do. But this is when it all costs really for Juventus as well.
And I wouldn’t be too surprised if they dug something out here. It might not be a win, but they could easily take a point from this game and yeah, I’m sure it’s not going to help them in the long run. But even still, I’m not willing to just write them off and say Benfica are banker here plus 100 because I don’t think they are. I wouldn’t be too keen in getting involved in that price, where if I was going to get involved in this match, I would go towards the goals just because the state of play in this group and Juventus requiring the victory, the sense desperation creeping particularly in the second half.
And the other angle I would’ve mentioned as well, I didn’t see any prices before we started recording but would be cards. I’m expecting this to be cards raining down like confetti for both teams really because of what’s at stake. Both teams are well versed in sort of collecting them, can be quite cynical at times. And I think we’ve got a referee as well who’s pretty positive in terms of dishing them out when required as well. So you can get over four and a half cards at a nice price, I don’t know, minus one to 20 or something absolutely fill your boots. But yeah, that would be my first choice, and secondly I’ll probably take BTDs and over two and a half goals at plus money.
Flash:
Okay. Just to both you, I’ll go Mina first, Benfica, did they score twice because minus 105 in three out there for home game so far? Yes. They’ve scored twice or would you obviously not going to go with a plus 100 thinking and that could well be a trap?
Mina:
In all honesty, I mean I think both teams are scoring over two and a half is the sound bet. I think another one would be Juventus to draw or win. I know that sounds crazy but-
Flash:
That’s minus 120 double chance for a team that are absolutely desperate and gone with their [inaudible 00:12:46] to the side of head they’ve got to produce.
Mina:
Perhaps draw no, but it’s just because they do have the individuals that can make a difference. It’s just that there’s something different in the way that they’re now having these group huddles. There’s a lot more commitment. I mean against Maccabi Haifa they manage 14 tackles, against Torino it went up to 30. I mean it goes to show you that there are much more combative side right now. That’s what they’re recovering at the moment is that physical edge, that desire to win at all costs that they somewhat lost. And I think that there’s something that’s happened recently in the way that the group dynamic has been that it’s improved largely. That’s not to say that, I mean Benfica is still a really mature side that plays the phases well much better than Porto in scoring for example. So that’s the only thing that stops me.
But it could be a draw, but I think to me this looks more like a draw is the thing that I would probably bank on the most. I definitely see Juventus scoring at least a goal in this. I think they do have goals in them, but they have kept six clean sheets in 11 games in Stadia. And this is despite them being miserably bad, they are very good at the bag, they’re still good at the bag. When they have imploded it’s been a big implosion as we saw, and that’s usually them feeling not good enough. But I’ll be honest with you, even against PSG, I didn’t think that they were bad to watch against Benfica they stopped. When they started and they were overwhelming in their presence they were brilliant. But the problem is that they keep fading away. So if they stop that, I think they’re a better side. It’s just whether or not they can manage it for 90 minutes. And when your pride is on the line, you never know. So I probably go with both teams to score over two or draw no bet with your Juventus.
Flash:
Yeah, Benfica to win and both teams to score could be the way to go, but when you’re getting a plus 100.
Mina:
They could win though. I don’t know.
Flash:
But I’m loving the atmosphere by the way of the Benfica fans. They’re really living the dream. And the other thing is I like about them is even when they went one nil down against the giants of PSG, they were so patient and they would still be on their side. There was no moaning. It was almost like “Don’t worry, we’ll get there and listen we might have lost a little battle but we will win the war.” And the belief just spreads out and yeah listen, let’s have a little look at the official picks because it’s going to be a great game if you just love an atmosphere, get the volume up on your tele because I’ve gone Benfica moneyline plus 100, both teams are scoring over two and a half at plus 120 from Mina. Mark’s got splint and so he sat on the fence.
But listen, you can go with Mina by the way, both teams scoring over two and a half or plus 120 because there’s every chance that Benfica could win this and both teams score, because Juventus have got to keep going, and I just feel as if that may play into Benfica’s hands even more but who knows. Everyone in the chat really is going for Benfica win Benfica draw, Juve horrendous, listen let’s just not get too carried away even though obviously what we’ve seen from so far in Europe you’re entitled to have that exactly. Okay, let’s move on to game number two of seven, and we’re going to group E and it’s Dinamo Zagreb versus Milan and Milan are minus 125, which a lot of people are going to look at and go, “Don’t complicate this Marco here.” The draw is at plus 280, Milan to score twice is a minus 115, Milan after their exploits against Chelsea picking up nothing out of six points. This is a must win so the minus 125, it might be just a… I’ll go for that.
Marco:
It is a must win but I think it has potential banana skin feel to it as well. Milan were in such a good position and to go and lose those games back to back to Chelsea. I know the red card made a big difference in the second game, but there was a no show really in the first game. Again I know they had loads of players missing, but they’ve really sort of put themselves in an awkward position here and this is no gimmick at all. We saw Chelsea slip up here in Zagreb and Dinamo playing at home in Croatia. But with that crowd behind them it can be an intimidating place to play.
Flash:
Are they allowed crowds now? Because I know it’s closed doors, wasn’t it for against Chelsea?
Marco:
There was-
Mina:
[inaudible 00:16:44] will have a crowd. I think they should.
Flash:
Yeah, yeah they had some kind of band didn’t they?
Marco:
Yeah.
Flash:
But get that confirmed.
Marco:
Yeah I’m not sure, I’m expecting them to do so. But yeah, I mean Milan obviously have to play Salzburg on match day six as well so they have to try and get something out of this game, because that’s a tricky one to conclude. But yeah, I’m expecting goals in this game. I’m expecting it to be a really good entertaining watch for the neutrals. Dinamo can certainly play their part in that as well. The reverse of course was three one at San Siro, Dinamo have now scored in three of their four group games. Milan yet to keep a clean sheet in the competition. Peyote sort of rested and rotated his squad against Monza at the weekend. Brian Diaz picked up an injury but it’s not as bad as first feared. So whether he’ll be involved or not I’m not sure but even still the key attacking personnel are available elsewhere.
Yeah if you take out the Chelsea games, they only failed to score once themselves this season. So fully expect both teams to score. Actually the stats in favor of it are really, really strong. So Dinamo obviously as they always are in Croatia, just streaks clear of the competition in the league beaten after 13 games, they’ve won 11 of those, but they really kept one clean sheet which is amazing really considering the dominance they have in that division. So both teams to score is banked in 12 of their 13 league games and the two players going forward Orsaich and Petkovic are exceptional really they’re good enough to play in easily in the big European leagues and I expect them to do so at some point. So I think they can cause this Milan defense problems, particularly in Zagreb. I expect them to score and I obviously fully expect Milan to score.
They’ve seen BTTS in eight to their 11 series R games already this season. So both teams to score is trading at a nice price but I just think back over two and half goals in on top of it again, plus price is plus 125. I really like the look of that. I think this is pretty close to must win territory for both of them really. So fully expect both teams to go all kind of guns out and see who can come out win a bit of a shootout really. So yeah, no opinion on the Soccer odds. I wouldn’t back Milan out of that price more than happy to go in a gold zone instead, because I can’t see them keeping a clean sheet personally.
Flash:
Yeah Zagreb beating Chelsea, Mina’s really thrown a real spanner in the works here because you’ve got the leaders on seven second place team on six points, and then you’ve got these two on four. If one of them manages a win, they put themselves with their fate in their own hands of actual qualification. Now Milan have lost two games home and away to Chelsea and yet they still have an opportunity to potentially to actually top this group. So I mean listen OCGA is really dangerous with pace. Surely Milan are too streetwise to go here and slip up.
Mina:
It’s interesting that you use the word streetwise because I think that’s the one thing that I wouldn’t use to describe them.
Flash:
But compared to Dynamos Zagreb away from home, they know that they just cannot avoid defeat.
Mina:
Yeah but are they good? But the problem that I had with them against Chelsea is if you take away the red card and all the moans about whether or not it became an interesting game to watch, whether it was too harsh of a decision or not, you can’t go get away from the fact that they leave so many gaps at the back. And with the style of play that they play with having Brian Diaz, Macias and Layao as well as a striker, we’re talking about four attacking players that don’t do that much on a defensive level. You add Theo Hernandez to that which is effectively another forward, let’s be honest because it’s not like his defensive work is all that great and you have Sergenio Odez, there’s Nocollabry as well on the other side who offers a bit more of a defensive balance. And you are talking about all out attack and so many gaps.
There isn’t a Frank Cassie to block. So I’m interested to see who is going to play and there’s no obviously Tomori. So defensively I think they’re coming into this game without many bodies to play that defensive role. So they’re definitely going to concede they leave huge gaps at the back. They’re naive in the way they go forward. They remind me of an almost Ruben Amoron side which is, it’s interesting to watch but it’s not always mature and it can be seen as reckless. Now the thought is that the plan is that we are going to beat Milan, and we are going to understand that we’re not going to get far in this Champions League, but we want to make sure that these players are instilled with confidence and the thought to always attack first. If that means that we’re not going to do it this year, it’s fine. We have a project to think about and in the future we’ll talk about a more flexible team that can play two different ways.
But right now they’re trying to take every team to, and when you look at how Zagreb counter attacks, that worries me. So I don’t know if Milan can win this because Dynamo Zagreb haven’t lost at home this season. So I’m interested to see what’s what’s going to happen. And I do agree that they do have brilliant players going forward. Milan has more technique, they have the history behind them, they are desperate to win and they do have tactical intelligence. I just don’t know whether or not they know how to cover the gaps that will stop a team like Zagreb counter attacking until their heart content and getting a few goals, because you saw what happened to Chelsea.
Flash:
That’s the problem I have here with the plus 360 with Zagreb or even Zagreb double chance at plus 105, Milan minus 125. But if we just erase that, don’t even look at it because over two and a half goals at minus 115 for both teams to score and over two and a half is a massive plus 125. I don’t see any sides winning three nil. I do see Zagreb scoring and I just couldn’t pick the winner here even though I do believe that Milan would be my favorite. I mean minus 125 is that really, really value a lot of people. Let’s have a look in-
Mina:
They should be.
Flash:
But yeah, I’m looking at that as well. Astute Chaos is saying group D. No, I don’t know what you mean AC because obviously this is group E. Let’s have a little look at the official picks here because I’m sure that it’s going to be goals and not complicated. AC says “Zagreb Milan over two and a half. Both the experts have gone. Both teams have scored and over two and a half around the plus 125.” Yeah it’s a really good game to watch to be honest. Is this an early kickoff? We’ve had a few early kickoffs since Zagreb Marco here.
Marco:
I’m not sure.
Flash:
Okay, just give me one second because I’ve got everything at the edge of my fingertips.
Mina:
No, it’s at 8:00 PM.
Flash:
Oh okay. That’s European time. Okay, thank you very much Queen. Okay, let’s move on to game number three because I’m sure that this might polarize a couple of us and don’t start laughing. Okay, this is group B and it’s Borussia versus Porto, Borussia just took everyone by storm not letting any goals in, they’re a draw at plus 250 Porto massive plus 115 but Borussia a plus 250, which again is one of those is what lineup are they going to field Porto back to back wins in competitions? So now you’re thinking to yourself they’re on a roll, they know that they’ve got to produce. Borussia to score twice as a plus 180 Porto scored twice is a plus 100. Mina, break this game down please because Porto, I went against them in the last round and they cruised on the road to a three nil victory.
Mina:
[inaudible 00:23:59] always. I mean to me if you’re looking based on pure talent I think Porto are the most exciting side to watch in the league. But like I said, they perhaps don’t manage the moments just as well as Benfica do. And you saw that obviously they got a red card and it sort of changed the game for them because they were down to 10, and then Benfica just waited for the right opportunity to get their goal and win the match to remain undefeated and open and big gap at the top. Now in this match, the thing that worries me about this with Porto is that if it’s over a German side like Leverkusen I’d changed coaches, I would tell you Porto for sure because they have continuity and ability. But against Club Brugge who has in all honesty not considered a single goal, really have come out of nowhere.
Nobody, if you told me there’s Brugge has Atletico Madrid and Porto who have the kind of history in this competition that they have and then you talk about Club Brugge to be the one that’s undefeated having won four of their matches not conceded a goal, I would’ve told you that’s never going to happen. But they’ve been amazing to watch. Just full of energy, full of youthful exuberance. Not at all intimidated by the opponent that they’re playing at the moment and right now there’s just nothing on their shoulders. But what they do care about is this is where they’ve already made it to their next round, but they still care about winning at first place in this competition and top of the league, so that they avoid all the big boys in the second round.
Importantly this is their last home game for the group stage, and they’re going to want to do a nice show. Porto, when I look at the way that they go down the right side, Aquino right bag and there’s so much defensive responsibility on Taremi, that bothers me a little and that makes me scared. So if Brugge tried to go down their left side, I think they could achieve a lot going there because it just seems very fragile for Porto at the moment. They don’t look to me like the mature side that they once were. They can be quite naive and eat into their emotions. So I’ve gone for a Brugge win. I know that you feel differently just because it is Porto.
Flash:
Yeah listen I think Porto, it’s one of those. Marco hare, my reasoning to back Porto here at plus 115 is necessity. And also I believe that they’ve recognized complacency and they’ve tried to put that behind them very, very quickly. Some teams, they recognize that they were a bit disrespectful to a couple of their opponents, but they’ve got an opportunity now to go to Borussia and then they have everything in their own hands because they’ll go to nine points, borussia’ll be at 10. And I know that Porto on the last game of the season against anybody they can pull it out. So Porto plus 115. I mean Borussia not let a goal in. They’re sitting on 10 points from four games and their plus 250 tells you everything surely.
Mina:
Yeah.
Marco:
Yeah well Club Brugge they’ve already qualified top of the group, they want to finish top of the group now as well. So I don’t think they’re going to just down tools and rest and rotate a lot of players. As Mina said it’s their last home game of the group phase so they’re not just going to sort not turn up here. But yeah, they’ve been a breath of fresh air, of course they have, but I do think there’s an element of variance that have gone in their favor as well. If you look at the numbers, they’re averaging [inaudible 00:27:08] 0.4 expected goals worse than their opposition on average through their first four fixtures. They’ll score seven goals from 34 shots, seven goals from 14 shots in target, which is crazy efficient and effective. They’ve lost the shot count in every game. Only once have they managed more than four shots in the box so far in the group phase, yet they’ve allowed at least 10 shots in the box in all four of their matches as well.
So they’ve written some positive variance. Of course, they attacked and counter tab brilliantly and wonderfully well in the trick hour in the reverse game. There’s a wonderful underdog story, but I do think there’s a few notes of caution there. But at the same time I’m finding Porto really hard to read this year just when I start to think that they’re finding to make progress and sort of turning into the animal we know they can be, they turn in the defeat against Benfica on Friday night, which is a crushing blow really even at this stage of the season. I thought they were excellent on the opening day and got nothing away Atletico Madrid since taken apart by Brugge and then back to back games against Leverkusen, where they weren’t totally convincing either. So if it wasn’t for my admiration for Sergio Conceicao I’d probably say I’d be opposing them here.
I do think they’re artificially short just because of the desperation factor and the fact that Brugge have already qualified. So yeah, this is quite an easy leave for me. It’s one of those games on the group when I looked at and I thought this could be nil il, it could be 33. I can see Club Brugge winning this four nil or Porto winning at three nil. It’s just one of those matches where everything is on the table so that regard, I was just quite happy to leave it alone and let you guys battle it out.
Flash:
Yeah, there’s no battle. There’s no battle, there’re no swords at dawn, Borussia plus 250 unbeaten haven’t let a goal in and they’re plus 250. I expect them to make sure because even with defeat winning the group is still in their own hands because they can go on the road and win and end up with 13 points. Best Porto can do is 12. So for me I’ve got to go with Porto plus 115.
But the big thing is I also know is Porto there’s no good the draw, the draw is no good for Porto because I was just looking then and thinking, “Hang on a minute, if Porto get four more points that means that then Atletico Madrid could really just come and steamroll them.” So I see Porto going all out for the win and plus 115, I’m not going to complicate it. And I think there’s class I think in the cold light of day, I mean the fire’s got to go out on the Borussia and Porto will be the stronger. Let’s have a little look at the official picks because you’re either in camp queen or camp presenter because the queen has gone four, Borussia moneyline plus 250, the number was too big. I know Louis beat John Prices.
Mina:
[inaudible 00:29:45].
Flash:
I know I-
Mina:
I see a two in front of a plus and I’m thinking to myself for sure I’m going for this.
Flash:
Yeah, exactly. And I normally do that and think that there’s a reason why but again, I can’t bring you any. No, I cannot because I don’t believe they’re going to play their strongest lineup. And that’s the reason why because otherwise they should be maybe, I don’t know, maybe plus 175. But again with Porto moneyline at plus 115 with Desperado to win the game, then I’ve got to go with them. And listen I like Porto as well. But there’s other people saying that if Benfica… It is one of them games where if you’re sitting on the fence, stay away because they say if Benfica, sorry Borussia, if they actually play their number one team, then they’re not going to lose the game.
Mina:
Can I just say the one thing that separates Borussia from like a Liverpool side or a Milan side that might rotate if they are in the same position is that they care more about this game than they care about their domestic product at the moment. And I say this because this brings a lot of money and a lot of brand awareness, and this is what they are trying to build right now as a club and to try to attract more people to them because obviously they’re making money now in the transfer market, they’re selling great players and they also make a lot of money from winning their matches and stadium attendances as well.
So for them they’re not in the same position because they’re always going to be prioritizing these matches. And especially if it’s Porto it’s going to get more eyeballs like Atletico Madrid than it would be for any other. So they got a good club and a good group in that sense in that they can attract people to this. And the better that they do and the more that they’re not seen as minnows, the better for their brand to win. That’s why I think they’ll go full hog and try to win this.
Flash:
Okay, Lyle saying, “Do we see a penalty win this game?” Save it for the Q&A at the end because we’ve done this, we’ve done the official picks. I want to go on to game number four because the amount of conundrums I’ve got to try and explain to you about this game is because it’s group A, it’s Ajax versus Liverpool. Liverpool already hold a 21 head to head. Liverpool obviously getting demolished by Napoli, now they’ve got to save their skin. Not a very good performance at the weekend by Liverpool. Very good by Ajax it’s Ajax plus 310 tells you everything, Liverpool minus 125. Do I think either of these keep a clean sheet? I don’t. So that’s why the line is at three and it’s over three minus 130. Liverpool to score twice is minus 160 so we’re starting this game. Marco here Ajax one, Liverpool two. So straight away surely the both teams are scoring over is better than just the over three because you get the two one, it’s only a push at minus 130.
Marco:
Yep, 100% that’s the way I’m going over two and a half goals, both teams of score, bish bash bosh, let’s move on.
Flash:
Bish bash bosh.
Marco:
Yeah I’m looking forward to this one. Two clubs on the back foot kind of desperate to silence critics obviously the task is much more sort of straightforward in terms of Ajax and what they required here and they need to win, they need to score at least twice that would sort of tie them in terms of the head to head. If they can beat Liverpool by more than a solitary goal, even better. But even still they’ll be relying on Liverpool slipping up at home to Napoli on match day six to stand any chance of qualifying. So it’s been a pretty turbulent campaign for Ajax they might be top of the Erodveesee but they’ve had their wobbles as we’ve talked about all season, failed to keep a clean sheet at eight now and they’ve lost four of those matches. Although the last two weekends domestically have been much more convincing.
They were kind of against bottom half drops in the Netherlands. So not a huge amount you can glean from that. But they can sort of take positives from Liverpool’s away record this season, which has been pretty atrocious. They’ve lost four of seven, won just once. And I look at that Liverpool price minus 125, feels short to me. Napoli were plus 180 going to Ajax at the start of October and we’re saying Liverpool and minus 125. Doesn’t ring true to me really. Even the Liverpool team where we’re expecting Tiago to come back in Darwin Nunez possibly Canasei possibly. I know clock press didn’t rotate at the weekend but incredibly underwhelming performance created next to nothing from open play. Allison was their best player and we’ve talked about it all seasonally, but the midfield is just lacking balance right now. They’re not pressing in the same coordinated manner and they’re being exposed to high quality opportunities in transitions and stuff.
And I think that’s exactly where Ajax can hurt them. But at the same point, Ajax have to play front foot football here, they have to be proactive, they have to go for the win, and I think that could easily play in Liverpool’s hands too. They’re not going to meet her sort of too defensive, too low blocks basically has not been forested at the weekend. It’s going to be much more open, expansive and I am expecting a bit of a shootout in this game. I think it’s the kind of match where you don’t really want to be back in the unders, at least if you’re going to be watching a match because you’re going to be hiding behind the sofa for the most part.
And I can’t see anything but goals in this game in all honesty. And I think the over two and half goals and BTTS at minus 125 is right up my street. As you say over three is minus 130 so you’re getting your worst price, and you’re requiring four goals to be paid out. Three goals just gets you the push. So we’ve got the two one on side here as well and that really appeals. So yeah, don’t see the team keeping clean sheets, don’t really care who wins. Liverpool deservedly favorites but I just take issue with that price considering we talked up Napoli at plus 180 or at least Mina and I did when they went to-
Flash:
Oh, oh I can feel that. Yeah I’ve got one ear and one arm, honestly I’m dying on the battlefield. You were waiting to say that.
Marco:
I’m done.
Flash:
Thanks mate. Thank you very much. Okay, let me set the scene here because Ajax need to win by two clear goals, or they need to match the result in Annefield or to reverse fix ship. So they’ve got to win my two one to take it into the last game. Remember they then have to travel to Rangers, Liverpool have to host Napoli so there’s no foregone, but Liverpool draw is good enough but it’s a very dangerous game, Mina for the visitors. I don’t think eRelease keep a clean sheet. I’m going to go with the visitors here to do, maybe not as what Napoli did but I do feel they’ve got the players to go and win this game 31, 32.
Mina:
Oh yeah this is where it’s a little bit similar to what we were discussing with Juventus. It’s a team that hasn’t performed expectations this season, but it still has the individuals required that can make the difference at any moment and when you need a… It’s like you said, they don’t need to win so they can actually be a lot more balanced and intelligent about this game, Liverpool. Play for the draw if you have to and then know that your quality will eventually shine through and take your chances. Where the trap is that Ajax because it’s a must win for them are just going to go crazy and try to attack on the front foot, and that leaves lots of gaps at the back.
The thing with Ajax is obviously as we’ve talked about it before, there are just so many changes to this team. It’s obviously been a huge turnover of personnel, and what you find right now is that some moments they’re really amazing to watch and some moments they’re disastrous to watch and rather reckless and play, but that’s what happens when it’s a newly formed team. So there’s a lack of consistency as they try to put together a continuous streak. So I still think they’re a naive side even though they’re playing at home.
They will want to do well, but I know that Liverpool have lost to Nottingham Forest and their eighth and the Premier League and they’re just not the side that we know that they are. We’ve already discussed all their problems but I just think on a maturity level which makes a difference in Champions League and experience level, they can get a one nil. I don’t think it’s going to be a one nil, I agree it’s going to be a bunch of goals so it’ll be a really fun game to watch. But I would always lean with Liverpool. I’m still staying away though because I can’t judge these two sides at all.
Flash:
Liverpool going one nil up in this game changes nothing for the home side, and that’s why I’m happy to say there’ll be no clean sheets because Ajax best result or worst case scenario in a positive manner is Ajax win two one. So if Liverpool score then nothing changes. If Ajax score nothing changes because again, Liverpool can obviously go and win the game still and yes there is-
Marco:
The prices but first half goals might be interesting if the line is set at one, because from memory Ajax is opening games against Napoli, we’re pretty mad weren’t they in-
Flash:
Brutal.
Marco:
… out and yeah.
Flash:
Brutal. Ajax team total over one is around plus 140, 150 Jim? Yeah I see Liverpool turning up. I mean that European Nights they cannot afford, because obviously who would want to play against, I think the best side in Europe at the moment in Napoli? I mean again we say about Man City, they’ve got their priorities. I wouldn’t put anything between Man City and Napoli at the moment. So you’ve got Napoli coming to town and you need to get a win. Listen or maybe-
Mina:
30, you never know.
Flash:
Yeah that’s what I mean. Harry Dockey says “I bet the house and my life on Ajax to score 50 goals.” Yeah in the first half obviously Harry stay off the smoke. Okay.
Mina:
Minutes.
Flash:
I know he’s off his head. Jim A says “I’m a huge Liverpool fan but I can’t pick them,” but that’s because you’re sometimes too close to the action. Mina’s the same with Juventus and Marco here is the same with QPR. Okay it happens, it happens when QPR were in Europe, I remember I went and watched them play Reykjavik and they were actually playing at Highberry. They actually played awesome because they had a plastic pitch. Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks because I think I found some values. So enjoy this. Liverpool to win and both teams to score at plus 210, and that correlates with Marco here because it’s gone for both teams to score and over two and a half at minus 125. I really do believe that Liverpool win this game but I do also believe there’ll be no clean sheets and it could go gun-ho fireworks.
Now I’m not sure we’re going to get fireworks in the next game. We’re going back to group B because it’s Atletico Madrid versus Leverkusen, who Leverkusen have been in absolute shambles, Atletico have not been the Atletico that we’ve been used to over the last four or five years. But Atletico minus 130, Leverkusen are massive at plus 380. There is nothing to choose between these sides on a given night, draw is at plus 280 and the under over is at two and a half, and the over is favorite at minus 115. I’m not sure we see three goals here, and I’m also not sure if both score, Mina?
Mina:
Yeah, that’ll be interesting to see. I agree with you. I think there’s been under two and a half goals scored in seven of Atletico’s last eight games in the Champions league. This is obviously a side notorious for the way that they’ve played their game and they sort of drag you into the pit with them. But it’s interesting when I was looking at the matches and which ones and where I wanted to place my bets because as soon as I see Bayer Leverkusen I go for them to lose more than I went for Atletico to win if that makes sense.
I think with Bayer Leverkusen it’s there trying to find their feet on Xabi Alonso and I think they have a horror show for what happened against Eintract Frankfurt. When they lost five one and it could have been anything up to 11 one at that point I just felt to myself this is going to be a long process for them to find their feet again and I just cannot see any… They’re unable to manage the fundamentals at the moment so I worry for them, and when I saw that performance against Raul Batez, Batez is a good side, it’s a very good side.
And then I thought with a really smart coach in Polyfini and I thought that Atletico are starting to find their feet again in Lanigez starting to show some consistency. They’re never going to be a team that dazzles you and really overwhelms you in a match. But I think they’re strong enough and intelligent enough to try to navigate themselves out of their group stage. It’s really between them and Porto because we already discussed a Club Brugge and I trust them right now more than I trust Porto. So this game will be played at eight whereas we’ll already know the results of what happens between Porto and Club Brugge at 545.
Flash:
You think that’s fair?
Mina:
That’s what I think is unfair because it’s between those two sides. Does that make sense? And it’s difficult because if Brugge win and Porto’s already down in the dumps, that’s going to change the way that you play at 8:00 PM for Atletico, because not a lot will be riding on this after that. I mean, no that’s also not true because Leverkusen also want the win.
Flash:
Yeah and Leverkusen has score two late goals in the reverse fixture because I was on Atletico, there’s a shock, me pulling a loser out the bag on Champions League at night. But I had Atletico to go and beat Leverkusen, Leverkusen they’d been nothing short of scandalous this season. They’re sitting in the bottom three or four in Bundesliga and then they went and beat Atletico. So you can’t trust either of these two sides. But if Porto go and win then obviously Atletico I think that minus 130 will probably move to minus 150 because it’s an all out assault on winning and our draws no good to either.
Mina:
No it could be interesting. The difference between these sides is who plays at home, right? Atletico are at home and that’s the only thing that you would make you think that I know that you don’t trust either side, but playing at home will make the difference whether you are Leverkusen or Atletico. At home, considering their recent form in Atletico you should see this team winning. It’s just about what Porto do I guess.
Flash:
Yeah, I just can’t trust the away side. They have chucked it so much and then they went and beat Atletico in a reverse fixture. So I’m wondering if like they’re putting their eggs in one basket, they know that Bundesliga will concentrate on that maybe after the World Cup Marco here, but for me if Porto get a result, Atletico could move massively.
Marco:
Yeah, I find it’s getting really difficult to call because of all the different permutations because it’s hard to be properly trustworthy of either team right now. Atletico obviously slightly more positive and the direction they’re traveling in, it seems to have been a kind of regression back to the style system has worked for them for all these years, 442, play hard to get, and got the quality up front in Greece and Marata and Jean Felix when necessary. But they’ve only won once of the last 10 Champs League home games, which I found quite a staggering statistic really. And that was the last winner against Porto match they won when they didn’t deserve to win either. So their home record’s not been that great in league either. But yeah, similar to me it’s just an opportunity to fight Leverkusen and if you’re going to get involved in this game, because they’re really struggling in the minute. I thought that the arrival of Xabi Alonso might give them the lift or the new manager bounce.
We saw it but it was only against Schalke so you can’t read too much into that, and since then they’ve been absolutely pummeled at Frankfurt and then they conceded twice and conceded more against Salzburg at the weekend, which is not saying too much, particularly in the buy arena. They’ve already lost and failed to score Brugge and Porto in this competition this season too. So yeah, it’s hard to be too positive about Bayern whereas Atletico, it kind of goes back to the old cliches really, but this is a big European Night at the Metropolitano. You kind of back [inaudible 00:45:01] team to pull one out of the bag where necessary. They’ve got the more quality they are the more stable, more consistent team. And yeah, I’d just be more sort of Atletico than I would Leverkusen that’s for sure. I don’t think minus 130s a bad price at all, but you can boost it to plus 110 for Atletico to win and under four and a half goals very difficult to see this match escalating into five or more goals.
I think 14 of Atletico’s last 18 Home Champions League ties are featured under two and a half goals under four and a half goals. I just think it’s a nice boost. I think five of the seven games involving these two in the group as well have featured under two and half goals. Only one game in this group has actually featured both teams scoring. So all the sort of negative goal trends coming to the four Atletico European competition in a must win game. You don’t expect it to be a high scoring game. So yeah, edge to the home team, but I’d be favoring unders as well.
Flash:
Yeah, I mean Atletico almost becomes an absolute banker because the final game in this group is Porto versus Atletico. If Porto win and Atletico win, what a game that is, because it’s just a straight winner takes all. Obviously I think Porto may have the draw on their side. Yeah, let’s have a little look at the official pick, because again I will get involved so make sure you follow at BetUS TV because I will be having a bit of Atletico on my side because I cannot have Bayer Leverkusen. Atletico and under four and half plus 110 is the way that Mina’s gone. Yeah, I don’t see five goals in the game. I think that’s safe. Would either of you go for Atletico and under three and a half? Maybe what, 135?
Mina:
Yeah because I think to myself I can’t see Leverkusen scoring twice and I can’t see… So I would say two one is probably the most that I would go see this going to. So under three and a half could be exciting. I just went for really risk averse just-
Flash:
And still get plus money though.
Mina:
That’s what I mean. They just bomb forward because both of them need the win. So I thought maybe there’ll be a few defensive problems but under three and a half I still think is relatively safe.
Flash:
Listen, if we get beat it’s going to be unlucky elf because we’re now in match day five and both of them have only managed two goals each.
Mina:
Exactly.
Flash:
And all of a sudden we want that both of them in match day five.
Marco:
It’s funny you say that, these two teams are the teams who are most underperforming. Their expected goals tally after four rounds. Leverkusen scored two goals from an XG of 6.7 and Atletico’s scored two goals from a XG of 6.3. So they both should have scored four goals than they have already. Perhaps a bit of variance goes into their favor and we get a three-
Flash:
But you couldn’t go Atletico and over one and a half could you?
Mina:
No, that’s not-
Flash:
Because one nil is definite result on the card.
Mina:
That’s why I think mine’s the safest one if you’re-
Flash:
I know, but there again, you know that Leverkusen if we just take the current situation and recent bias out, Leverkusen’s also decided that could get beat five three, you know what I mean? It’s like whoa, I’m pushing back towards the minus 130. Let’s move on to game number six of seven. And this is a game for Group C and it’s in the camp? No, it’s Barcelona at plus 130.
It’s Barcelona plus 130 hosting, Bayern a plus 190, Bayern sit at the top. Barcelona it’s win at every single count, but there’s still no guarantees because of what’s gone on with their games against Inter. It’s one of those for Barcelona, it’s a must win and that’s why they plus 130 Bayern score twice is plus 100. I just see, I’m going to come to you first Mina because the draws are plus 290. That’s no good to Barce, so Barce just got to bomb forward. If there’s one team in the world, if I said to you, you are going to bomb forward over commit and just go for broke, who’s the one team that you don’t want against? It’s got to be Bayern, they just love to hit you on the break. Incisive passing pace on both wings. I just see that Bayern maybe goals is the way to go and not worry about Barcelona trying to win the game.
Mina:
Yeah, it’s an interesting one because I think there’s a lot more quality on the ball and you saw that in the first half when the two teams played together in the first half. I thought Barcelona was splendid, but when it came to actual tactical adjustments, as soon as Gretzky came on it was game over. They managed much better in the midfield and then you just kind of saw the mistakes that Barcelona have in them and the frailties of the team, because they are unable in any stretch of the imagination to be pragmatic. So the fact of the matter is that when they try to go all out attack they win in Laniga. It’s a different game in the Champion League, and you have to be more flexible and pragmatic, especially when you are missing a lot of defensive reinforcements that they didn’t have against Inter.
And that’s exactly what happened, because unfortunately they did face a side that knew how to be pragmatic in their approach. Now couldn’t they should be back there, still not [inaudible 00:50:11] obviously. They’ve lost third to Roberto who was splendid over the weekend as well and I thought Gabby was really good actually on a physical level against Inter, and I do think he’s a great player but I just don’t know if this team against Bayern is going to be a side that can actually score. They’re a little bit down in the dumps about the way that they have performed so far. They know that their chances are limited because let’s be honest, it won’t matter at the end of the day if Inter do what they’re supposed to do and actually defeat the team that hasn’t managed to win a game so far and Viktoria Plzen.
So I don’t know what this is going to be and frankly speaking between these two sides Bayern always win and I think at the end of the day they’ve started to find their rhythm again. There’s no more dodgy draws at the Bundesliga right now. There’re better performances and they’ve got right now the better team, the more consistency and the more continuity. Can they concede goals? Yes, and I do think both teams to score is interesting to watch and possibly could happen but I do think Barcelona will be a little too down in the dumps for this to happen. So I don’t know. I would go with a Bayern win.
Flash:
Yeah, I mean I think a great value at plus 190 but listen, both teams to score over three and a half is 100% a runner because Barcelona have just got to keep going from football. Bayern will pick them off. They’ve got goals from maybe Sarley or Marley or the Maverick or Muller. And for me the big showdown is from the Rolls-Royce of Bayern in Musiala against Gabby. But then you’ve got Dembele, who knows what he’s going to do. Just screams goals. I mean the over three at minus 130 there’s definitely going to be three goals but I just see Bayern scoring twice, Marco here at plus 100 and I don’t care who wins?
Marco:
Yeah, I mean we talked about it in the other game. There’s some really, really unfair scheduling on the Champions League this week because the Inter gaming against [inaudible 00:52:10] is taking place earlier. So we could come into this match with Barcelona already out of the Champions League and that changes the complexion completely. And look, that’s probably going to be the case, Inter are probably going to win and Barcelona are going to be out the Champions League. So suddenly this fixture takes a completely different look to it, and yeah I think the Bayern prices are far, far too big. They’ve been priced up that way artificially, because they don’t have to and they’ve already qualified where I just don’t see.
Flash:
But they’ve not qualified at number one spot which they would need, otherwise we could sit there and have maybe PSG versus Bayern and none of them want that.
Marco:
Exactly and that’s why I think you’ve got to be pro Bayern in this case, because there just doesn’t seem to be enough positives to pull the trigger on Barcelona in any case, even Inter were to stumble against Plzen, and I still thinking obviously Barcelona have to go out and win this match and that just plays into Bayern’s hands as you’ve already eloquently put. So defensively I’ve got absolutely zero faith in this Barcelona team. You look at that league, it looks like nine clean sheets from 11. Very, very good. Doesn’t tell you the full story whatsoever because Ted Stegga’s been superman between the sticks on many occasions. The defense in front of him is creaking. None of them are good enough to sort of hold down an elite European club apart from Jules Kounde, Eric Garcia certainly hasn’t and said Serge Roberto is creaking. So there’s not a great deal of protection to a vulnerable defense.
And if you’re going to be gung-ho about it, you don’t really only playing a team like Bayern who admittedly there’s no Signa, there’s no Noya. But even still the score that they’re taking across the Barcelona is very, very strong. As Mina says, they’ve won the last four heads ahead that’s called 16 goals against Barcelona and they’ll have seen what Inter did you know just waiting for the moment really in that second half when things became ragged and Barcelona got desperate and they just exposed them had 11 shots, nine were inside the box. They created five big chances which are chances that Okta describe as a realistic opportunity to score. They generated an XG over two, the bulk of which was from open play as well. Inter can do that, absolutely Bayern can do that as well. So I don’t see them being too kind.
I know it’s sort of the cliche, the stereotype of German efficiency and ruthlessness. But I think from Bayern perspective, even if Barcelona is still in with a chance of qualifying, let’s say in to do slip up, Bayern will see there’s an opportunity to knock one of the big rivals for the competition out because let’s face it, Barce is still in the early stages of this new rebuild, they’ve been incredibly inconsistent at times they’ve looked wonderful at times, they looked horrendous as well.
And I think anything can happen when you get around to March, February the time when the knockouts begin and I think Bayern will want to see Barcelona off. So yeah, I think Bayern plus 190 Bayern pick plus 115, Bayern score twice plus 100, take your pick really. You can even get Bayern plus a quarter at around about minus 125, which pays out a small state of profit if the game ends in a draw but I don’t think it will. I think there’ll be loads of goals. I think Bayern will score most of them. But yeah following you in Flash on the plus 100 but very, very, very tempted by the plus 115 and Bayern drawn about the pick as well.
Flash:
Yeah, Mark Specter in the chart says “Is it a bit too brave? I think I’ve used the word brave for Bayern Asian handicap minus one.” Why would you do that when you get him plus 190 for them just to win the game. They could win this three two. The big one for me was I have to go back and sort of compare because Inter absolutely butchered Barcelona on the break and Bayern they are the prototype for hitting you on the break when you over commit.
So for me an over committal Barcelona means Bayern score two or three and you’re giving me plus 100 for just scoring two. Yes I think [inaudible 00:56:01] scores. I just think this could be bonkers. I mean we’ve even experienced an eight two in this game. Let’s have a little look at the official pits because this is a must watch game. Remember we all know what was going on here Inter vs Plzen but I still believe that these two giants are going to put on a massive show. Bayern team total over one and a half plus 100 for Mark and myself. I just-
Mina:
[inaudible 00:56:25].
Flash:
Sorry?
Mina:
Let’s match you all and take it as well.
Flash:
You’re going to come in as well three units from the team. I think it’s now looking like a banker really when you start having all three of us on the same bets, when there’s such big numbers about remember plus 190 for Bayern, there’s every chance that this could be absolutely crazy. Anderson’s coming in with a nice one Levin Doskey score twice at plus 400. Again they could have scored twice in the first half in Munich, but I favored Barcelona better in Munich than I do at home for the obvious reasons. That’s not labor. The point Bayern of the best counter attacking team.
Barce have got a for caution to the wind and wouldn’t it be lovely Plzen actually got something or took a point off of Inter because then it could really get out of hand. Okay, let’s go on our last game and it’s from the Lords Mayor’s show to North London. It’s group D and it’s Spurs versus Sporting and this game is up from grabs from first to fourth, top of the minus 225. You’re a brave man if you take that Sporting plus 640, the under over is set up free with the under free at minus 130. I don’t think many people think there’s going to be four goals here. Marco here the draws are runner at plus 375, but for top them it’s all about making sure they get something out the game.
Marco:
Yeah, exactly. They’re very difficult to read right now as well. They’re grinding their way through the season but variance kind of bit them where it hurts in the last two matches, and I thought they looked a bit broken at the end of Sunday. Obviously Hugo Loreet had a terrible game but Eric Dier saw him playing below themselves and obviously-
Flash:
Same players, same game week in, week out and they’ve played every minute now, I don’t know what he’s doing, he’s flogging dead horses.
Marco:
Exactly. He’s a demanding head coach but I’ve just seen the training ground can’t be a nice place right now because those players are going to be fatigued mentally, physically and he’s going to be asking them to go again and again and again. I don’t know why he’s putting so many minutes into some of his key players when he can. He built this squad in the summer to rotate when necessary. But he’s not doing that. He did a little bit on Sunday but even still and I think he’s a coach for excels when he’s got time to work with his players and he just doesn’t have that at the minute. Spurs are playing every three days, only enough time to rest and recover and prepare to go again. So it’s been uninspiring. It’s been underwhelming. I do think fatigue has played a part. I do think they’ve missed Cuzeske’s versatility and industry in the last few games for Charleston still missing as well.
So you can’t do much in terms of changing his forwards. So yeah, I mean you look at the price and top and minus 225, it’s very unappealing when you consider they were a plus 120 at home to Newcastle at the weekend.
Flash:
Oh no.
Marco:
I mean is there a big difference between Sporting and Newcastle? Maybe, maybe not. I personally don’t see it but yeah, I mean under three goals was the one that stood out to me. You’ve got such a range of correct scores on your side there. The nil nils, the one ones, one nil, two nil. If there’s a two one or a three nil it’s stakes returned, it’s only if we see four goals or more of it but we lose out and the goal expectancy is set at three, which feels really high in all honesty. I just can’t see this being a bit of a gunfight, I suppose qualify with a win of course.
But they were far from convincing before the red card against Marseille. They were more convincing against Frankfurt. But Frankfurt as we know are a team who are pretty loose at the best of times, whereas Sporting I think can be more controlled. They’re more experienced in this stage, they’re more capable. They got a point to prove after the last two games against Marseille as well when Ill discipline really came back to bite them. But yeah said it for a couple of years now. Love Ruben Amorim, loved the project he’s been on with Sporting, it feels like they possibly are coming towards the end of that with Premier League interest. They’ve been below par domestically but if you look at the reverse game, he created a tactical plan that kept Spurs at arms length. He knew exactly what Spurs wanted to do in Portugal. He didn’t allow a seated possession to them and said “Try and break us down, we’ll hit you in the counter attacks and transitions, which is exactly what you want to do.”
And they had some really good fleeting moments of success doing that. So if they can adopt something similar here, I can’t see it sort of descending into an all hour attack kind of game. So I’d take under three goals at minus 130. Quite happy to sort of cheer on [inaudible 01:00:43] we talk about other games on this show Dinamo against Milan, Bayern against Barcelona, Ajax against Liverpool. Not the kind of games where you want to be supporting under if you’re watching that match because it’s going to be watching in front of back of the sofa. I think this one you actually can watch on the sofa knowing that there’s probably not going to be four or five goals in this one.
Flash:
Yeah and the big one is always going to be that Spurs just need to win, because if this ends in a draw, Sporting know that they’re sitting on six points. Marseille are in second or joint second or six points, Spurs are on seven, and Frankfurt are on four. Now if Frankfurt win they go to seven, Sporting on seven, Tottenham on eight, Marseille on six. It’s like Sporting, if they get a draw here they’ll have it in their own hands because they play Frankfurt at home. So I can see this being nil nil maybe one, one, I don’t want to go down that route but under three I’m sure I don’t see four goals in this game Mina.
Mina:
I-
Flash:
You don’t like this game do you? You just don’t like this game do you?
Mina:
No, I just don’t know what I think of Sporting if that makes sense. They’re ill disciplined, it’s something to watch that’s really annoying to watch. They can be a little bit reckless in the way that they play their game. It’s almost naivety will always creep into a Sporting. Pedro Porro’s back and I think that makes a difference for them. Hopefully he’s going to be able to start and that will make a massive difference for Sporting. And again I do love the game plan that they produced. It sort of vindicates everything that I’ve always said. In Italy, one of the issues that we have with Antonio Conte is he plays exhaustive tactics and he demands the team to run at 200 kilometers or they surrender to mediocrity.
The problem is his game plan is exhaustive and to have the same players do that, he will never rotate. He could have Marsa on the bench and I’m telling you right now, he will not rotate. And this is a man who had Christian Eriksen, New Kaco, Achraf Hakimi, Laftata Martinez in Inter and didn’t get out of the group stage twice. So it is because his game plan is a little bit too tiring for teams and it’s very hard to continue that going through the season. And there will be a stage where they will go through what they’re going through right now because it’s more a mental fatigue, not just a physical one. And that’s what I worry about right now.
Can Sporting do it away from him though? They’re not a very good team so really Tom should win this one. It’s just really what Antonio Conte decides to do. And if in any way, shape or form Sporting is slightly unpredictable for a team that really studies every single detail, prepares everything, if something goes differently to how they think it will, they suffer. And so that’s going to be what’s interesting to see. I honestly didn’t know where to go with this one because I don’t know which team to trust cause I don’t trust either coach and I judge everything based on the coaches in charge and because of the coaching I trust Marseille only.
Flash:
Well and that’s the other one because first have to go to Marseille on the final game of this group. So Spurs have got to go almost all out but they cannot afford to get done with a sucker punch and end up getting beat one nil. I see this Sporting just containment, Sporting a happy with nil nil and not a lot changes of Sporting, because they don’t win the game but they win their last game, they’ll be finished on nine points and law of averages say that Spurs or Marseille are going to drop away. So it could be top number 10. Listen this group is really up in the air but the bottom line is the only number I really see here is I don’t see four goals. So you’re giving minus 130 for a push on three. Yeah, I’m more than happy to go that way. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Spur versus Sporting official picks is I’m on my own. Under three at minus 130 but that would be the way that you’d go Marco here.
Marco:
Yeah, I thought I put it in so-
Flash:
Yeah let me have a little look.
Marco:
That might be my mistake but yeah it’s definitely what I-
Flash:
Yeah, it’s your mistake. That’s not mine or my teams. Okay?
Marco:
Sorry.
Flash:
We’ll have that done. Okay, no problem at all. But you are more than happy to have the minus one for and you stop giggling. Okay, let me remind you to ask any questions. We’re now going to go into the Q&A but before you do that please, this is your home for soccer betting, and we are America’s favorite sports books so please subscribe and also ring the bell, which means we’ll cover every single sport and let you know about it. And if you’re on social media, follow at BetUS TV and you might need to follow really quickly because tomorrow and Wednesday there might be line up checks where we find value, and I’ll tell the big one that’s ringing in my ears zone is Atletico Madrid at minus 130 just to go and beat Leverkusen.
And also there’s a link in description press that join anywhere in the world you can join. No excuses, get yourself over there, join the number will come to me and if I pull you out the hat then you can tell me your size and what shirt you want and I’ll get that sent to you. Right. First question, Bulletproof Coconut “Winter nil at plus 250.” He must be talking about Spurs. Maccabi High to score in [inaudible 01:05:50]. Mina do Maccabi score in a PSG?
Mina:
They’re capable of it. I think David is capable of it, but honestly they were playing like the worst possible Juventus that we’ve seen and away from home they’re not a team to be reckoned with. This was being played in Israel I would’ve told you there’s a chance. Away from home instead [inaudible 01:06:13] I don’t think so.
Flash:
Yeah the big one here for me Jim A says “Napoli at home to Rangers essentially a lock up first place. Napoli minus two at plus 105. Not for me. Thank you very much.” Yeah, they might go in two, nil two one but-
Mina:
They’ve averaged three goals a game too far.
Flash:
Yeah I understand that. But again they just need to win and they’re cruising. They’re so much better than anybody else. But for minus two I did minus two for Man City the weekend they should have scored seven, and ended up three one and I get a push Marco here.
Marco:
Yeah, well on Napoli.
Flash:
Yeah Napoli Rangers.
Marco:
Yeah I think there’s possibly be better ways to try and play that game. I do expect Napoli to hose up pretty comfortably Rangers have been an abomination and I’m being kind there because I was quite looking forward to seeing them return to this stage. I had plenty of hope and expectation, and they’ve been absolutely horrendous. So I expect Napoli to do the job and sew things up before match day six.
Flash:
Yeah I-
Marco:
[inaudible 01:07:13] I said that in the Premier League show I don’t really-
Flash:
Napoli halftime full time. Is that a way to go?
Marco:
Yeah that might be it, or you look to do Napoli first half goals, that kind of thing. Just get better prices and you’re not asking for as much as you would require on the minus two handicap.
Flash:
Yeah or Napoli and over one and a half goals or something like that. There was one more and it was Real Madrid to win. I mean I looked at Real Madrid, I thought it was a bit of a trappy price to be honest because it was too good to be true. Mark hey you are shaking your head. You can take that.
Marco:
No Benzema, no Modrich I think and no Valverde have traveled to Germany so yeah leave it alone.
Flash:
Yeah, leave it alone. Okay so have a little look at all the bets. Here we go because this is, well it’s just long, it’s massive. Mina, Benfica versus Juventus, both teams scoring over two and half at plus 120. Zagreb Milan, both teams scoring over two and half at plus 125. Borussia, moneyline at plus 250 out of spite. Atletico, at under four and a half at plus 110 but she also likes Bayern team total over one and a half at plus 100. Marco here has got Zagreb Milan, both team scoring over two and half at plus 125, it’s really popular. Ajax and Liverpool, both team scoring over two and a half minus 125. I like Liverpool both teams to score at plus two 10. Bayern team total at over one and a half for Marco here is the same as mine and same as Mina’s.
And then I’ve gone with Paul moneyline at plus 115. Benfica, moneyline at plus 100, Tottenham Sporting under three at minus 120. I’m not sure if that’s moved against me or for me because we said it’s minus 130, I would think my graphics team are right up on the ball so I’d expect it to be at minus 130 now, not minus 120. I’m still happy to take minus 120. I’m looking at all of them and the big thing for me is I’ve gone all Portuguese.
Okay, Marco Hare and Mina, everybody in the chat please thumbs up on the way out. We’re still not a 50% of the thumbs up. We’ve got plenty people enjoying it though. Mina, I’ll see you on Thursday for Sierra. Marco here’s going to have a new partner on the Premier League, Mr. Brad Thomas is going to be filling in for Stinch. But Stinch is going to switch wings. He’s left wing for the EPL show and now he is going to go on the right wing, because he’s going to cover the Bundesliga because Alex is going on vacation. So from everyone at BetUS enjoy match day five of the Champions League. Some will be crying, some will be laughing and let’s hope we’re all getting paid. Thanks Mina, thanks Mark. Everyone at BetUS, you take care.
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