Europa League Picks: Semifinals 1st Leg | Europa League Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

Now if you like your Soccer odds and your props, then type in betustv.com/odds, and if you see anything you like, then why not type in betustv.com/fifty. That’s a $50 free bet waiting for you. Now we’ve got two cracking guests to go alongside two cracking ties. The first one, from Bundesliga, is @AlexClassicTips, and the Alex Classic is both teams to score and over. Don’t think that we’ll see it in both of the games, but Alex, two games that I think is a little bit easier to find value than in the Champions League semifinals.

Alex:

Totally, totally. But also two important games in my opinion. We see good teams here. We see the masters of the Europa League in Sevilla, we see the now favorites of the competition Juventus at … Stinch was saying plus 200 before the show, but he took it at plus 800, I think in the round of 32 or something like that, if I remember correct. After that, we see one of the paciest teams alive, Leverkusen with a cracking attack. Absolutely phenomenal, phenomenal in front of goal with Wirtz [inaudible 00:02:02] with Diaby that is doing wonders in Europa League, and we see the masterclass of Jose Mourinho, who in every country he worked his magic. Unfortunately, in front of the German opposition in 21 games as a manager, he only won like six of them or seven of them. And also Roma as a team doesn’t have a great record against the German opposition. So I think that there will be plenty of action. A great match to watch in my opinion is, by far, Roma versus Leverkusen. Then Juventus versus Sevilla, of course Juventus with a great home record, but Sevilla revived under their new manager, and also a lot of experience at this level. So yeah, let’s see. It’ll be very interesting.

Flash:

It will be very interesting, because the other thing is you can’t get away with starting … like letting yourself run away with these games, though, Stinch, because notoriously, first leg. So remember the first game ends, it’s only halftime, because again, we do it all over again next week. Tight games, low scoring.

Stinch:

Yeah, generally, I mean this season we have obviously no away goals, and I think the effect of it generally is teams don’t go out on an attack and try and nick an away goal, obviously to count as double. So the away goal originally was brought in to make sure, or try and entice teams to play a bit more front foot, bit more attacking. So I think the removal of it is … means that we see teams be more negative. Now we don’t have a massive sample size to go off, but that’s the general feeling I have. So that’s why I’m always a little bit cagey to be sort of going for a pro goal bet in first legs. Obviously it’s all price-dependent, but I do think it’s probably worth just quickly touching on the outrights, Juventus favorites now at plus 185, Bayer Leverkusen second phase, plus 250, Roma then at plus 300, and then Sevilla at plus 350. So very, very, very tight in the betting. So look forward to unpacking each match, and seeing where we can find an edge, because yeah, the outright suggests that these two ties are going to be very, very close.

Flash:

Okay, well let’s kick off with the first game then, straight away. Remember, get yourselves involved in the chat. First game is Roma versus Bayer Leverkusen. Roma at plus 110, Leverkusen at plus 255. The draw is at plus 240. The under over is at two and a half, with the over being plus 120, which is no surprise. Now Roma got beat at home at the weekend in the buildup to this, 2-0. Leverkusen, they got beat at home, but Leverkusen did not try an absolute leg. You could actually see all the players that have pace and have energy did not extend themselves at all. Alex?

Alex:

Yeah, I think that we covered this match so good on the Bundesliga show. We said that they’re prioritizing the Europa League, because this is the competition. If they win it, they will go in the Champions League. If you look at the standings in the Bundesliga, it’s simple, sixth in the standings, there’s no Champions League for them, because they are eight points behind Union Berlin. They are also eight points behind Freiburg in fifth. So there is no Europa League going from the domestic league. So it’s all in right now in the second competition in Europe, Europa League. And I think that the thing that they don’t have the fear of losing this, Leverkusen. They will go all in. Of course, you will say that they don’t know how to defend.

Flash:

Obviously.

Alex:

Xabi Alonso did work his magic at this club since he took over, and Kevin was talking about it, that he was a little bit concerned about all the situation, but at the given moment he started to back them. So I think that he understood the fact that Xabi Alonso is and will become one of the great coaches, in my opinion. And he has the material also. He has a team full of talent. He has a team full of pace. Wirtz is back. He missed during the group stages, but after that in the knockout stages of Europa League, he was phenomenal. Diaby is one of the players to watch here. He’s scored so many goals and delivered so many assists also in this competition. The great attack of … with Frimpong also coming from the left side, I think that this Leverkusen side is prioritizing, like we said. They lost at the weekend in Bundesliga, but I don’t think that you should write them off to win the competition. We already saw that last year in Eintracht Frankfurt.

Jose Mourinho, I know you’ll say he’s a great manager. He has the experience. Roma has plenty of firepower, but also Mourinho was complaining about so many games last week, and you saw that he said that he has also some injury issues. Also the fact that they have to face so many teams right now at this stage, but he should know that this is football. We have to live with it. Still, he’s missing some important players at the back, and I think that yes, normally you have, let’s say, cagey matches in the first leg, but I really think that this match could go easy over 2.5.

You could go also with the Alex Classic, I’m even expecting Leverkusen to score over 1.5 goals, which is at plus money here. I mean, it’s everything on the cards here. I think that this will be one of the most entertaining games this midweek between Champions League and the Europa League, to be honest. Of course you’ll say Mourinho defending, AS Roma defending, Italian club. But look at the recent results that they had in this competition, and let’s not forget that Leverkusen are the masters when it comes to away games. Of course they played Monaco, they played Ferencvaros, they played Saint-Gilloise. You could argue that they never played a team like AS Roma, but still, at this level of this competition, and they are made for attacking football. They are made for counterattack. We have all the ingredients for an entertaining game.

Flash:

Yeah, I mean, and obviously to counter balance that, Stinch, I think that Roma are the perfect side to lock down Leverkusen, because it’s Leverkusen’s strengths are so easily identifiable. You go with Wirtz, you go with Frimpong, you go with Diaby, you get tight, you don’t give them any space. I found this the easiest game, in my mind, to actually say that I think there’ll be a winner, because of the way that these two sides match up. And there’s a big question mark on one of the sides to where they defend, and there’s not a big question mark about the management style of the home side.

Stinch:

Yeah, it’s a meeting of styles, isn’t it? With Mourinho with his pragmatic, defensive, ancient tactics, one might say, versus fresh out the box Xabi Alonso, who, since he’s taken over at Leverkusen I think has achieved the third-most points in the Bundesliga, which is some feat when you consider how well Union and Freiburg have done this season in terms of achieving points. So I think it’s a little bit unfair, really, to have Roma priced at plus 110. I think it’s a bit short in my mind. Because I kind of feel like this is, in terms of overall ability, I think this should be more, I think it’s like 50/50 to me, or very, very close to it. And if that’s the case, then Roma should be round about plus 130. If you have two teams in similar ability, if you give one of them home advantage, that team should be around about plus 130.

And then when you consider the to qualify odds, Leverkusen are minus 120 faves. And now obviously you can say, “Okay, the qualify odds are wrong and the match odds are wrong.” But I’ll say I’m happy to suggest that there’s definitely more 50/50 than Roma being favorites. So it suggests that in the second leg, if the game was to finish 0-0 for example, or a draw, that Leverkusen would be like minus 120, minus 125. And I don’t see that happening either. So I do think that Leverkusen are underrated here in terms of the match odds. We look at the fact that under two and a half goals is minus 150. The market’s obviously expecting a low game, and with a lower goal expectancy that always means there’s a higher chance of the draw. So again, for me, Roma here at plus 110 is too short.

So essentially I want to oppose Roma, so I’m just going to basically back Leverkusen in the most competitive market available. So it’s going to be Leverkusen plus a quarter at plus 100. So essentially it’s half my money on Leverkusen draw no bet, and half the money on Leverkusen to avoid defeat. So as long as Roma don’t win, we’ll get paid out. But yeah, I just think the Roma price looks too short, and I think you’d be very … I always feel with Leverkusen they’re difficult to trust as a favorite. Well, it’s definitely a sure price favorite. I know you seem perfectly on Friday, I know you can talk about motivation, but it was a derby against Cologne. But we’ve seen Leverkusen even lose against the likes of Augsburg. You’d never want to back them as sure price favorites because you can’t trust them. But as outsiders, big outsiders, I think you’ll be very, very brave to oppose them, and I think as you’ve mentioned, the forward talent they’ve got, they will have opportunities here on the counterattack. There will be times, maybe not too many times, where Roma will come out, but again that means it’s going to be a low-scoring game, and that means the draw comes more into play. So yeah, I just think Roma are too short here at plus 110. I think it’s a bit disrespectful towards Leverkusen.

Alex:

I think that for Roma-

Flash:

Wow.

Alex:

… sorry, sorry, Flash. I think that for Roma it’ll be very, very risky to have a defensive approach against this Leverkusen side. I think that they should come out, I think that they should take their chance, is a match in front of their fans. It’ll be very difficult for them to win in Germany. So in order to qualify, I feel that Roma should risk a little bit, should risk even a little bit more than what Leverkusen will do, because I fancy Leverkusen to go all in here and to play their chance, even on the road. There were so many times when Leverkusen lost the first leg and returned the match in the second leg. So this, not necessarily fighting spirit, but this squad that only knows how to attack, of course with the Xabi Alonso lately they look even better at the back, and I’m sure that we’ll see a very good Leverkusen side in the next season in the Bundesliga. I’m expecting them to sign some players and to keep the spine for the next season. And this is why I think that they will prioritize this competition, and I really fancy them to go till the end even against a Juventus side who, personally, I don’t like to watch this season.

Flash:

I think that Leverkusen could struggle to score here. I think that plus 170 is absolutely massive value. I’ve got Roma winning this game. I mean, it’s out of all league games in Champions League and Europa League, I’ve got Roma winning the game. And I was even thinking of Roma win to nil, but not massive.

Alex:

I think that you’re going against us. It’s good thing that you’re going against us.

Flash:

Yeah, no listen, I just look at it and go, “Okay, Roma are happy 1-0, 2-0, Leverkusen are not very good unless you give them time and space. Give them time and space and they will cripple you in two passes. They will be away and gone. But because their weapons are so easily identifiable then I think that they will set traps. They will not let … so basically the ball goes to Diaby, he’s got to go backwards. There’s no way that Diaby’s going to pick up the ball and have three or four yards of space on both of them. I think that he will do a proper, proper job, and that’s why the under two and a half goals is at minus 150. That’s got to be the lowest price for a two and a half that I’ve seen all season in all four, maybe six shows. So all the four domestic, the Champions League, and the Europa League, for a reason. They’re not offering decent because they don’t see three goals in this game. I’m happy.

Alex:

Don’t forget, Flash, that they’re also good on set pieces. They have Hincapie, they have Bakker, also [inaudible 00:15:25] if you are playing the middle of the defense. So I think that, plus if they get a free kick from close to the box, I think that they have so many … plus the VAR, let’s not forget of that. How many penalties lately, and how many weird touches inside the box that were awarded as penalties, how many of them we are seeing-

Flash:

Yeah-

Alex:

… day in and day out.

Flash:

… first of all I think that Leverkusen have got to get into Roma’s area.

Alex:

And you watched-

Flash:

Roma’s half.

Alex:

… Roma against Inter, you watch Roma against Monza, against Milan, against Atalanta, against Feyenoord, and so on. They’re struggling at the back lately. I know that Mourinho is a mastermind when it comes to defending, but Leverkusen will create a lot.

Flash:

Oh okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks, because for me, getting plus money for the home side was massive, but Leverkusen not to score, remember, is plus 170. Over two and a half goals at plus 120. Remember the under two and a half is minus 150. Roma money line at plus 110, just not complicating it. The reason I was going to go, I was thinking this game could be 0-0, this game could be 0-0, because I think it would suit Leverkusen to go back with obviously just a clean sheet and blah, blah, blah. Leverkusen plus 0.25 at plus 100. If you don’t want to go for Roma money line, that plus 100, then go maybe for the draw, and that definitely brings in the 0-0, but for me Roma money line at plus 110.

Let’s move on to the second game. Juve hosting Sevilla, and Juve at minus 130. That should be maybe good enough if you’re a Juve fan and you fancy they’ll dispose of Sevilla, because this is not the Sevilla of the last four or five years. They are very much rebuild mode, but they are plus 390 to get a result in Turin. Draw is at plus 255. The under over is set at two and a half with really, normally you’d see toss of a coin, over two and a half at plus 110, the under two and a half at minus 140. Stinch, I fancy this could well go over. I like a Juve two, Sevilla one, which brings in Juve at plus 105 to score twice.

Stinch:

Yeah, I mean if you look at the last round, Sevilla against United, and what was, I anticipated two very defensive Sevilla performances, and would lead to low-scoring games. Obviously we saw four goals in the first leg and then three in the second leg. So no-

Flash:

Man United did contribute though. Man United contributed five of them Sevilla goals. So two own goals at Old Trafford, it was 2-0 when … you would’ve been right. That’s one of them games where if you had the under in Man United Sevilla, you were right. Because two own goals in the last four minutes of the game, you cannot legislate for that, can you?

Stinch:

Yeah, well thanks. I backed under 2.75 in that first leg. So yeah, I definitely thought-

Flash:

I was with you.

Stinch:

… I was going to get paid. Yeah-

Flash:

I was with you.

Stinch:

… but that’s what you get with a new manager. You have the very little games to work on. I feel like you always kind of need to throw everything out of the window, what you’ve seen from the side earlier in the season, until you have a big enough sample size. But obviously when you don’t, there’s a propensity to have lots of different scenarios that could unfold. So I think it’s … we need to, well I’ll touch on it in a minute, but we do need to be a little bit aware of what Sevilla may bring to the table. From a Juve perspective this year they’ve been very good defensively. They’ve only conceded 11 goals in the last 23 games, and when they’ve been minus money on 11 of those occasions they’ve won 10.

So they’ve been very good flat track bullies. Obviously they don’t play in a fantastic style, but they know how to get the job done. That’s kind of Allegri’s mantra, the way he goes about it. And it has given him success. He’s won multiple Serie A’s, he’s taken Juventus to Champions League Finals. I mean obviously when we’re talking about Europa League, final potentially here as well. So he’s been there, seen it, done it all. I’d say it’s not a fantastic Juventus, player for player, compared to what he’s had previously, but he does seem to be able to find a way to get the job done on a regular basis. Mendilibar took over Sevilla a couple of months ago. He’s nine games in charge, he’s won six, drawn two, and lost just one, which is a fantastic return, considering they were battling relegation. And I think there is credit here that he needs to be sort of given. They’ve won at odds of plus 275, plus 260, plus 190, plus 375.

That’s victories against the likes of Villarreal, Athletic Bilbao, and of course against United as well. But the thing for me, if you look at Sevilla against United in the same match in the last round when Sevilla went away, Sevilla were plus 900. Now I think in hindsight it’s a wonderful thing, but obviously we know anything can happen in one-off games. That plus 900 was probably too big, but I don’t think Sevilla can now all of a sudden be less than half of that price. So essentially I want to back Juventus, but I know that backing Juventus I need to be a bit cautious, as I mentioned, about the fact that Sevilla have been on a bit of a run. And clearly confidence must have gone up, something that is obviously very difficult to put a number on. So basically I want to be greedy and back Juventus to win, but by keeping under three and a half goals on side as well. And I think from going from minus 130 to plus 130 is an enormous swing really, when you consider that under two and a half goals is minus 140.

So I’m going to get an extra goal, and obviously getting paid out of plus 130 if Juventus can find the breakthrough. I was quite surprised to see Juve at this minus 130, to be honest. I thought they would be shorter, but obviously given the fact that Sevilla have been on a bit of a better run, and as I say, it’s too straightforward just to look at pure results, you need to look a bit deeper, but as [inaudible 00:21:31] confidence is something that’s definitely will have changed under Mendilibar. So I think this has got kind of Juve 1-0, Juve 2-1 maybe, written over it. We look back to Juve earlier on in the tournament, and they drew at home to Nantes before going away and winning it in the second leg. So again with no away goals, Allegri won’t be too worried if Sevilla do score, and I don’t think it’ll be sort of all-out attack. I think, yeah, I think this could be quite a dull game to watch, but Juve just coming through by the odd goal is the way I envisage it.

Flash:

Yeah, honestly I think it’s a great breakdown, Stinch. I think Juve, the big thing for me with Juve is trusting them weekly when there’s no real motivation. They just go about it, because even when they win 1-0, and obviously I see every Juve game, as I do most of the Serie A teams, they’re second best in nearly every single one of them games. They invite pressure, they fly by the seat of their pants so many times. I mean, they kept like eight or nine clean sheets out of 10 in a row, right, and yet they could have drawn or been beaten in six or seven of them, but they’ve got them players, on a European night when all eyes are on them, that they come to the fore, Alex, and we welcome back Pogba now. Wouldn’t surprise me if he has a starring role. Juve minus 130. I’m actually going to do a parlay, under two and a half goals in the Milan derby in the Champions League semifinal, going on Juve at minus 130. Alex.

Alex:

Yeah, and also the numbers are with them. They have never been beaten at home in the Europa League since the rebrand in 2009, while they won four of the last five games in this competition. They were in a poor form in the Champions League, but after that something happened and they improved. Now they’re comfortably sitting second in Serie A, and they will qualify in the Champions League. Three weeks ago, one month ago we were talking like this is their chance to qualify the Champions League, but here they are, they got their points back and they will do it. But let’s not write Sevilla out, because, again since the rebrand of the Europa League, no side can match their achievements in the competition. They’ve made the last four more times than any other team during that time, and they prepare for the fifth semifinal in under 10 years, and they won the competition 2014, ’15, ’16, and ’20.

Like Stinch said, they’re looking amazing under their new manager. Imagine that they were fighting relegation. Sevilla was fighting relegation with such a squad at their disposal. But again the new manager, whatever, every time we were talking about new manager, we were asking you what was the feeling. And you always said that you want to show, you want to give everything, you want to be part of the new project, you want to be there with the soul, and not only with the feet, and this is what is happening. All the players that … they already had a good talent, and they were not world class, because I don’t think that they have too many world class players in their squad, but Ocampos, Rakitic with the experience, Suso, they have talent, they have a talented squad, and I think that they will put some problems to this Juventus team.

Of course Juventus, huge favorites, home game, absolutely amazing record at home in this competition, and not only, like you said in Serie A, they are playing without stress, without pressure right now. Of course that they will want to win a competition, but I think that Sevilla can score on the road, even though the name is Juventus. So again I’m going with the plus money here, and I’m not taking the over 2.5 goals because, if you remember at the beginning when we talked about this, you said that you’re waiting for a high-scoring affair. I’m just going with both teams to score at plus 110. Again, the same price as over 2.5 goals. If you are expecting a high-scoring affair and over 2.5, don’t expect Juventus to score three on their own, because they won’t. So if you are going for the same thing, you should expect also Sevilla to win, and you will be covered also with a 1-1 draw, in case of a draw at full-time.

Flash:

Yeah, I mean I think there’s a few ways. I think you don’t complicate. You go for Juve at minus 130, you can go with Juve and under three and half, because I don’t see four goals here, and that’s at plus 130. But I also like Juve to score twice, plus 105, give them that little bit of a cushion, but then it all just reverts back to Juve winning the game at minus 130. Let’s have it. [inaudible 00:26:27] going En-Nesyri shots on target at minus 105. Yeah, because he can shoot from 25 yards and you’ll get cash, but that doesn’t really … that’s another one. When you see all these, “Oh, they’ve had 10 shots,” yeah, but eight of them are like from 25 yards out, and the keeper just … it’s like back passes. Let’s have a little look at the official picks, because I’m thinking you’re going to see good value. Both teams to score, plus 110. Juve team total over one and a half at plus 105, and Juve and under three and a half at plus 130. And I just made up that parlay, by the way, of Inter and Milan under two and a half goals, and Juve at minus 130.

Alex:

So 2-1 for Juve, you’re 2-1 for Juve for everyone to be happy here, right?

Flash:

Yeah, and 0-0 in the Milan game. Okay, time for a Q and A, and while you decide what you want to type, the first question’s going to go to Stinch. I’d like you to subscribe and ring the bell so that we notify you, and then that means you don’t miss any of our shows. And remember, the time and the schedule this week is completely changed. So you’ve got Premier League and Serie A on Wednesday, and you have Bundesliga and La Liga on Thursday, and then next week we do it all again. And if you like your odds and props then type in betustv.com/odds, and if there’s something you like and you want a $50 free bet, then type in betustv.com/fifty. Okay, first question. Don’s saying, Sevilla second leg at home. Ramon Sanchez, I say they have a good chance to qualify if they keep things tight in the first leg. Stinch, I don’t think it matters with Juve, because Juve can go and win home or away.

Stinch:

Yeah, I think they’re very good at managing ties. We saw, I’d say, against Nantes very early on in, I think it was the first stage of the knockout ties, they were very short priced to win the first leg and they drew 1-1, and then they went away and won 3-0. I think you look at them in the last round against Sporting when they won the first leg 1-0 and they just managed the second tie to 1-1 to get through. I’m surprised at the odds to qualify, to be honest. Sevilla are plus 110 to qualify. That seems short to me. I mean you’ve got Sevilla plus 400 to win the game, yet plus 110 to qualify.

Alex:

Whoa, what?

Stinch:

It says that basically Sevilla will be the favorites in the second leg, and decent favorites as well. It says Sevilla will be sort of plus 210, plus 220 in the second leg, if the second leg … if everything was all square. So I can’t get on board with that. So I think even if you want to get with Juve, but you don’t want to bet them to win in the first leg, you can bet them to qualify at minus 140. And I think that may be … that’s arguably the best bet of the whole tie, then, because you’re allowed the safety net of them not winning the first tie, maybe not even winning the second tie, but obviously eventually going through in extra time or penalties, knowing that over the course of two legs the better quality shines through, because that’s generally how it works. You’re allowed, in one-off matches and finals, for example, you do get upsets, because in 90 minutes anything can happen with VAR and red cards and things like that. But generally over two legs the better team will always come to the fore. So yeah, if you want to actually play a safer bet, rather than just backing Juventus, I think backing Juventus to qualify is a good bet as well.

Alex:

I think-

Flash:

I’ll go one step further. I think you go, if you haven’t done Juve at plus 800, you do Juve to win the tournament at plus 185, because if they play Leverkusen or Roma, they’re going to be plus 105, top whack. Top whack, they will be plus 105.

Alex:

Let’s not forget, I really think that your bet on this game is the best from all three of us, Flash. Juve to score twice, given everything, taking everything in consideration. And let’s not forget that Sevilla have now lost four of the last five trips in this competition, and they failed to win any of their Champions League group stage away games. So if Juve wants to win the tournament, they have to beat Sevilla at home, come on.

Flash:

Oh, without a doubt. I think plus 185. You take the money now at plus 185, that means that you’re then getting plus 80, but also you’re getting the draw in the final, and they can win it on extra time and penalties, by the way, because it’s 185 to lift the cup. It’s not … And by the way, if they get to the final, to lift the cup they will be minus 135, minus 140. Look at the difference at plus 185. I don’t see them not being in the final.

Okay, let’s have a little look at the official picks. Official picks are, Alex, Roma Leverkusen over two and a half at plus 120. So he’s looking at 3-0 to Roma, because I’ve got money line plus 110, but Stinch is shaking his head even though you can’t see him, and because he’s gone Leverkusen at plus 0.25 at plus 100, I did like the Leverkusen not to score at plus 170, thinking it could be 0-0, and that obviously would suit probably Roma and Leverkusen, to keep the tie alive for the second leg.

Juve and under three and a half at plus 130. Do see Juve winning, don’t see four goals. So that plus 130 I think could well be in the bank. Juve team total over one and a half at plus 105, and Juve Sevilla both teams to score at plus 110. So Juve to win 2-1. Please, Don is saying can’t trust Juve, to be honest. Just trust them, Don. Okay, thumbs up on your way out please, and we’ll look forward to seeing you. The next time will be Premier League, 10:00 Eastern on Wednesday. Don’t be late. Alex, see you, Bundesliga. Stinch, we’ll see you on the Premier League. For everyone at BetUS, enjoy the Champions League and the Europa League. There’s going to be four unbelievable games. You take care.