Europa League Picks: Semifinals 2nd Leg | Europa League Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

Going to be chat from you, obviously we’ve had a great start today already with the Champions League. My two absolute stars are from Bundesliga, who are represented in Alex Classic Tips and Mark Stinchcombe, who is a world odds compiler, who tell you if the number’s right or wrong. If it’s wrong and it’s in our favor, then we’ll have to do it anyway. Alex, we’ll start off with you. First game is going to be obviously Sevilla versus Juve, it’s 1-1. Do you see the away side, their experience coming to the fore or Sevilla because there’s no-one better over the last five years in this competition?

Alex Classic Tips:

I think that Stinch made a point with Sevilla over the last three shows we had with [inaudible 00:01:39]. Sevilla improved the experiences on their side. They were very unlucky not to win the first leg in my opinion. They started good, they pressed high, En-Nesyri and Ocampos missed some sitters there. And only some black to be honest, made 1-1 for Juventus with Gatti that transformed a professional football player only three years ago. Imagine what a nice story there. I think that right now at Sevilla things will look even better for Sevilla to be honest. I don’t see Juventus winning. I see Sevilla starting strong again and I didn’t even like Juventus against Cremonese. Even if they won to 2-0, I didn’t like at all how they behaved on the pitch.

Flash:

They’ve behaved like that for the last 12 weeks.

Alex Classic Tips:

Exactly!

Flash:

Even when they’ve won games, they’ve been bossed and they give teams opportunities. But Alex, do not think that Sevilla’s chance is gone because they might not get the same opportunities again in the second leg and they didn’t take them when they came around.

Alex Classic Tips:

No, I think that Stadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan, it’ll be a different atmosphere. Things will look even better for them. Their fighting spirit will appear from the first minute of the game. They will go all in in my opinion, they saw it in the first leg, they can beat you Juventus. I think it’ll be a nice game. I think it’ll be a cagey first half in which Juventus will try to take on the pressure because they will not exit and to attack from the first minute of the game. I think that we will see a better game in the second half to put it this way.

Flash:

Dependent on whether Juve lead in one nil because remember this game did end one Stinch in the first leg. Because there’s no away goals, nil, nil, 1-1, 2-2, it still ends up going a penalties, do we see a two-hour game here?

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, maybe because I feel like away goals were brought in in order to encourage away teams to come out and play a bit more. In my mind, removing them, it just does the exact opposite and teams will just sit back and try and pinch a goal because as we know, football’s a low scoring game and we see a lot of fine margins. World Cup final was decided on penalties and that’s what often happens at the very top level. There isn’t a lot to separate them. I think it could be another low scoring cagey game again.

Flash:

If it doesn’t go to penalties, I favor the away side. Even though they keep giving teams a little bit too much freedom, a little bit too much time on the ball, it’s almost like an arrogance of we know that we will keep the back door closed because so many teams have not capitalized on the chances. Let’s kick on because this is obviously the first game we’re going to be covering. It’s Sevilla versus Juve. Sevilla at plus 140. A lot of people would jump all over that, but Juve at plus 210, 120 for draw no bet for Juve. Remember we’re on a plus 800, so now’s the time to hedge. If you have no faith, the first leg I keep saying to you, it’s 1-1. Now what mentality does that mean that Juve will have Stinch, the team totals. They’ve got it down really here for Sevilla to win 2-1, not sure I like that. Over two and a half goals at minus 115. Also, the numbers are telling you that the under at minus 145 is the way to go.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, not a lot to separate them basically says that the teams are very similar in ability with Sevilla there plus 140. I may be not surprised that under two and a half goals is a big favorite there at minus 145. As I just said a minute ago, the fact there’s no away goals doesn’t necessarily mean that Juventus will come out and attack and as the tie is so finally poised, not necessarily will Sevilla either. It’s a really difficult one I think, I mean maybe I’m being biased. Because obviously on Juventus it’s a real difficult one really for me to oppose them. But it’s also definitely worth pointing out the impact that Mendilibar has had obviously, just one defeat since he’s arrived. He’s turned Sevilla in from relegation contenders so now they can even possibly qualify for Europe, which is an incredible turnaround.

They knocked out the favorites Man United, beat them three nil after being two nil down in the first leg and coming back to 2-2 there. I think you can understand maybe why people might want to bet Sevilla and maybe it would be hard to put you off really. In my mind given the job that Mendilibar has done and the results he’s achieved. But I mean you touched on it there Flash that Juventus often allow teams to play but I think they have that experience especially in the managerial dugout that they’ve been there, seen it, done it and they know exactly what to do to get the job done here. Allegra’s been to two Champions League finals. He’s won ridiculous amounts of Seria A’s and Coppa Italias, he knows how to get the job done. Yes, Mendilibar’s on a good run of form here, but his only managerial success in his career is a Segunda Victory in 2007.

He’s been sacked at five of his previous jobs at Bilbao, Valladolid, Osasuna, Levante and Alaves which tells me that basically the honeymoon period does run out eventually. So given all of that, I’m just going to bet Juventus plus a quarter minus 125. I think they almost maybe prefer not to be ahead and then they can just pounce on the counter-attack with Vlahovic, Di Maria, Rabiot, Kostic, Cuadrado coming from deep as well. Even Milik off the bench, obviously Pogba picked up another injury so he is unlikely he’ll be unavailable. But I’m just wondering is there maybe a case to say, and I think you touched on it as well, flash, did severe miss their opportunity to really sort of put this tie in their favor in that first half of that first leg when they had some good chances and could have maybe should have been two nil up and then allowed Juventus in the last second of the game?

I’m just wondering if they’ve maybe missed their opportunity, but I think this is a difficult ask for Juventus but then the odds reflect that plus 210 underdogs. So yeah, I’m backing Veers, but it’s only because of the odds and the longer term data of Sevilla are definitely in the better form right now for sure.

Flash:

Draw plus 225. Sevilla to win on penalties plus 900, Juve win on penalties plus 900. I’m going to be like a stock record for both of these games because they both have the capability to go for over two hours and one of I think both games or at least one of the games will go all the way to penalties. Let me talk about severe at home Alex. Yes, they’ve knocked out Man United, but Man United defended like under tens and they handed them an absolute gift because severe were two nil down and then they’ve rode their luck. Two own goals at Old Trafford. Then Harry Maguire, he got paid on an assist, then they were just opened like the Red Sea. Sevilla, okay, you’ve still got score them goals, but I don’t see anything between these suicides. So the value on that whole page is a draw at plus 225 or either side winning at plus 900 on penalties.

Alex Classic Tips:

Yeah, it was interesting. I think Stinch, talked about the experience of the coaches and of course Allegri is a better coach overall, but right now Sevilla is on fire. And in the first leg I think that Mendilibar surprised Allegri with a press high on the road from the first minute of the game. It was a bit crazy for Allegri to see that he wasn’t expecting that. He thought that he will dominate position, he will dominate the game, Sevilla will play for the draw. It wasn’t like that and they should be happy with the considering just one goal. Imagine that in the first of the game, Juventus failed to record the shot on target, zero. And Sevilla had five of them with 13 opportunities to score. So it was a great first half from Sevilla who got deflated a little bit in the second half, who in the second half got more dangerous only on the break they defend it well they didn’t let a lot of balls inside the box.

I think that this is why I’m expecting a cagey match here. I don’t think that Sevilla will have the same approach even though if you think about it, this might be their only chance again to surprise Juventus. But again, I don’t think that Juventus will do the same mistake again. I think that Allegri will learn from using mistakes from the first leg. I see a draw at halftime. Let’s put it to… I agree with a draw at the end, but I would rather take a draw at halftime, which is also at plus money

Flash:

And you can be the meat in the sandwich if you’d like as well because Alex likes draw basically at halftime. I like draw at fulltime, but bet us.com you can have to draw after 75 minutes and not get involved in the desperation of the last 20 minutes. But if Sevilla, Juve is draw after 75, I fancy it’s going to end a draw and they’ll take the half an hour extra. Let’s have a little look at the official picks. Another thing I wanted to ask, do you think the winner of the whole competition stench comes from this game?

Mark Stinchcombe:

Ooh, no. Not sort of binary a hundred percent. I think any of these four teams have still got a great chance of winning it. I think that I haven’t looked to the outright but I think it’s very, very tightly packed. So I definitely could make a case for any of these four teams.

Alex Classic Tips:

Not like Manchester City versus Madrid. Like the winner from that game will win the competition

Flash:

Possibly. But again-

Alex Classic Tips:

There is bigger than-

Flash:

Yeah, without a doubt. Halftime draw at plus 110, Pony’s going for, that’s Mitch by the way is going for Roma overall, but we’ll come to that game in a minute because I tell you what, I wouldn’t put all me eggs in Roma’s basket either. So it’s halftime draw at plus 110 for Alex, Juve plus nor 0.25 at minus 125. Remember Juve plus 210 but it’s plus 900 either of these sides to win on penalties. That’s probably the way that I’ll go just to have maybe half a unit on each and just watch the game. But I also like to draw at plus 225. Let’s move on to game number two here.

Leverkusen and plus 100, I don’t think you complicate it, I think they win the game. Roma at plus 280. The better side was the home side. Remember I’m not talking after the event. I actually had nice win on Roma last week, don’t complicate it. Just on the money line. Most fortunate bet I’ve had probably in the last six weeks because Leverkusen for me were far better. They moved the ball, they were confident and they took the game to Roma and they just fouled in that final third, time after time after time. First leg is Roma did win one nil. So again, Leverkusen just have to win this game, but it’s plus 1000 for Leverkusen and plus 1000 for Roma to win on penalties in this game, which brings in the draw at plus 245. Alex, you can go first here because you are our bundesliga expert. I see Leverkusen winning this game, but I also see it could be by one goal, which means we end up with the ball on the penalty spot.

Alex Classic Tips:

Yeah, you were spot on in the first leg. I think that yeah, Roma was the better side. The XG will not tell you the same thing. The XG was the same on both teams. 1.02, 1.02.

Flash:

Sorry, you said Roma were the better side. I thought Leverkusen were the better side even though I won my money on Roma.

Alex Classic Tips:

Slightly the better side from smart approach. I think Leverkusen are more entertaining to watch and the most exciting team to watch between the two. But I think that Mourinho’s experience won the game for Roma. Even though Leverkusen missed a crazy chance in the last minutes of the game. Unreal but the second half is in Germany and of course we’ve seen it again. Leverkusen are prioritizing this competition again, crazy weird match in my opinion against the Stuttgart 1-1 on the road. They rested many of their key players but now everyone is back. Everyone is eager and determined to qualify to the final.

I think that the home advantage will be very important for Leverkusen. I think that the Roma will play for the draw. I don’t think that Mourinho will risk anything in this match, but I’m still going for the overs because I’m seeing a fast goal in the game. I’m seeing that the match will open up. I think that we will see a lot of balls inside the box for Leverkusen. It’ll be a very, very entertaining game. It’ll be different than in the first leg. And also let’s say that also AS Roma on the road against the German sides in the European cups competitions is not ideal. Only one win from the last seven matches against the German opposition. So I think that you are right giving Leverkusen the first chance to win this game. But also the over 2.5 goals looks like an attractive bet here with plus 115 or over 2.5 goals. So I think a 2-1 type of game with extra time there and maybe also a penalty. And you like that market a lot so maybe you will go either team to win on penalties, who knows?

Flash:

No, not either. I will be definitely because I’ve got this game at 2-1. Stinch, I’ve got Leverkusen winning the game so I like the plus 100 just in case they win it 2-0. But I’ve got Leverkusen to win and both teams to score. I’ve got Leverkusen to score twice at plus 125. Everything tells me I’ve got to be on the home side but be prepared for a long night.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, I mean it’s Jose Mourinho, second leg, European semi-final with a lead. I think it’s just going to be backs to the walls for Roma we saw in the first leg. I think Roma got five yellow cards. So I think more of the same here. That would just be defending, defending, defending.

Alex Classic Tips:

Do you think we will see so many yellow cards with the final game? I don’t know if the yellow cards will be cut before the final. Do you you know that?

Flash:

Normally they’re cut now unless it’s a red.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, exactly. So if you got booked in the first leg you can get booked in the second leg and still play in the final. So it might be worth having a look at the Roma team cards for example when they’re available. If it’s set up, I don’t know, two and a half definitely would be looking at overs.

Flash:

Do you think boys, that the over two and half is plus 115?Because I mean Roma could win this game 2-1, I mean they could, do you know what I mean? Just because Leverkusen is going to go for it but I cannot believe it’s plus 115 for the over two and half.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, I think it’s again it’s factoring and Mourinho’s style essentially, they won the Europa Conference league last year. I think they drew, I think they beat Leicester, one nil at home and then drew 1-1 away if I’m correct. And they obviously beat Feyenoord 1-0 in the final as well. So it’s kind of obvious they’re their gameplay. But I think if you have a look at the Europa League second legs knockout since the beginning of last season when the away goals rule was abolished, there’s been 111 goals in 41 games. That’s 2.71 goals per game. Now if you use that as an input, the overall under 2.5 would be equal. So it’d be sort of minus 110 at each of the pair. But the expected goals here, that means we’ve got a plus 115 and over 2.5 says it’s only going to see 2.4 goals.

So I think there’s a big, even though we know Roma style and Mourinho’s style, I still think even if you tweak down the sort of 2.7 and moved it towards the 2.4, I still don’t think you can go fully in that direction. And the fact that we consider that Leverkusen games do tend to be very goal heavy under Xabi Alonso, 103 goals in his 34 matches in charge, that’s over three per game. So I’m quite happy to think of this as X v Y and back over overs essentially because we do generally, I talked about in the first leg that we need to be concerned about backing goal heavy games and that kind of came to fruition with the 1-1 and 1-0. But in second legs generally there is an increase in the goal expectancy. So, I think backing overs is the value here and essentially I think I’ve actually taken over 2.25 goals.

So I think I’m being a bit shrewd and a bit pragmatic at minus 105 and basically if there’s only two goals, I’m still going to get half my stake back. So the only way the bet will lose completely is if there’s zero or one goals. And I could definitely see, I mean we’ve talked about extra time, I could definitely see Leverkusen winning one nil or 2-1 as you mentioned. So, I think both games could be a runner for extra time. So I’m not sure if you can back maybe a multiple, both games to go to extra time or something like that. That might be quite a nice price to sort of cheer on with both games.

Flash:

But if you want that you do it the other way and just go draw as in the parlay, a draw and Leverkusen money line, it’s simple as that and that’s why-

Mark Stinchcombe:

So you get like plus-

Flash:

Plus 550.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah. So that might be something to do as well, especially if you’ve got both games on and as we see in the odds here, they’re both expected to be cagey and low scoring so you can maybe even go correct score. Maybe Leverkusen one nil and again nil, nil in the other one. Or 1-1 in the other one so you get an even bigger price. So, I think I get again, I think another cagey game but I’m just going to play the numbers here and back overs when I think you’re right Flash, I think overs should be a bit shorter.

Alex Classic Tips:

Also talking about cards. Talking about cards cause Stinch mentioned them over 2.5 cards for aroma minus 130 over 3.5 cards for Roma plus 155 in the second legs of the last [inaudible 00:21:37]

Flash:

Alex, sorry to interrupt, can we do three cards, so it’s like a push? Because it seems like the right number.

Alex Classic Tips:

My book doesn’t have that. But let me tell you that in the second legs of the last two knockout stages, Roma were carded three times against Sociedad, four times against the Feyenoord and also last week, four times against Leverkusen at home. So we might see and right now they will defend because they won the first leg. So we might see also cards again, I was looking to see who the ref is for this one and the ref is Vincic from Slovenia.

Flash:

What’s his track record like? Because a lot of these that come from the smaller European nations, they don’t light to upset the [inaudible 00:22:38] and secondly they don’t really, I mean obviously if a player gets a yellow card, he’s still not going to miss the final but the red, I mean because you’ve given a yellow, the next stage is then definitely given a red. And I’m wondering if the FIFA directive is obviously we don’t want our best players missing the final. Completely different though-

Alex Classic Tips:

So only one appearance in Europa League this season. Four cards and five-

Flash:

Only one appearance and now he is in the semi-final second league?

Alex Classic Tips:

Yeah because he had five appearances in the Champions League and five cards per game.

Flash:

Okay, well that gives you a little inkling, dependent on obviously the sides that he reft against. I think everyone sees this been a really tight game. I like Leverkusen, I mean I’m going to basically go with the 2-1 which is basically both teams to score and over and I think that’s around a plus 150. But I’m going to have a little bit Leverkusen at plus 100 but there’s no way I don’t see this go could possibly be going to penalties. So I’m going to be having a plus 1000 on each of them because you just get paid. You just get paid for sitting there watching and not caring who wins. Let’s have a look at the official picks before we go to the Q&A. It’s over two and a half goals at plus 115, over two and a half, over 2.25 at minus 105 for Stinch. For me both teams are score and over two and half at plus 150.

But I will be covering that with the Leverkusen win at plus 100 as well. I suppose a draw with maybe 25 minutes to go. BetUs go to the 75-minute market. Remember, Alex also liked the draw maybe around halftime. It’s one of those I just don’t see the home side taking effort off the gas and it’s going to be pressure and if is they are leading by that one goal this 20 minutes to go, do they go to kill the game off or do they just be patient because they will actually create some chances late on. Okay, time for the Q&A. Now if you’ve got something you want to do, then Mancini, booking at plus 163 says Mitch… But before I go into this, I’d like you to subscribe and get us closer to the 14,000.

I mean, great season for subscribers, great season for chat and it’s only going to be busier next season. I also ring the bell means we’ll notify you and you’ll never miss any content again if you’d like your odds and your props and type in bet ustv.com/odds. And if you want a $50 free bet maybe on one of these games going at penalties, they can turn that $50 into 500 then it’s betustv.com/fifty. Okay, Leverkusen and both teams to score at plus 375. That brings in that 2-1 that we possibly think it could be Stinch

Mark Stinchcombe:

Yeah, well I think I’d just rather back the overs and not worry about whether it’s both teams that contribute. I think maybe worth just touching on the outright prices as we discussed them, you can barely fit anything between them. So you’ve got, Sevilla are the favorites right now plus 225, then it’s Roma plus 250, then Juventus at plus 275 and then LA at plus 325. So you can barely fit anything between them, so everything to play for in that respect.

Flash:

Yeah. Okay, Don07, I’ll be your agony uncle in a minute. I just give you maybe a little bit of advice. Let’s have a little look. Leverkusen and both team score plus 375. Also Leverkusen and over one and a half at plus 170. If you go in Leverkusen, Leverkusen, Leverkusen don’t complicate it because plus 100 or plus 125. Let’s have a quick look. I’m in love with my friend. She’s Persian but I don’t know how to tell her any advice, Flash?

Alex Classic Tips:

Yeah, take a freekick.

Flash:

And the other thing is, does she like you? That’s the other one. Do you know what I mean? Because you don’t want to be-

Alex Classic Tips:

Does she know that?

Flash:

Yeah, exactly. I think we’re going to have to maybe have this over a series of weeks. We’re going to have to sort chipping away to find out if she actually likes you too.

Alex Classic Tips:

I think you should first go inside the box and after that you’ll see what is next.

Flash:

Okay, let’s have a little look at the best bets. Even though I think Alex just gave you one of them. Sevilla, Juve halftime draw at plus 100. Leverkusen, Roma over two and half plus 115. Stinch, Juve plus nor 0.25 at minus 125. Leverkusen Roma, over 2.25 minus 105. And for me it’s Leverkusen and Roma, both teams score over two and half at plus 150. But I do like Leverkusen at plus 100. But Don, at the end of the day, pull your heart out. What’s the worst that can happen? She can break it, won’t be the last. It happens to all of us.

Alex Classic Tips:

Make sure you don’t miss a sitter, that’s for sure. Make sure you don’t miss it.

Mark Stinchcombe:

Give her a bet slip with the winner in the Golf this weekend and she’ll love you.

Flash:

Yeah, you can watch that this afternoon. Five o’clock eastern time. The PGA Championships will be with myself, Nick, and with James Mazzola. And it is a competition that’s thrown up the odd plus 20,000 winner. Although, I don’t fancy it’s going to be this week. Although the course is an absolute ripper, Oak Hill Country Club. Okay, from everyone in the chat, we’ll see you all again on Thursday. Enjoy the Champions League, enjoy the Europa League. Alex, I’ll see you back on Friday morning, normal time with Kevin. Stinch I’ll see you on Thursday morning with your wingman in Mark O’Haire for the Premier League when we start crowning Manchester City. But hold on a minute Alex, who’s the final between? Europa League?

Alex Classic Tips:

Leverkusen, Sevilla.

Flash:

Okay, Stinch?

Mark Stinchcombe:

All the Italian Juve, Roma. Forza Juve.

Flash:

Oh my God.

Alex Classic Tips:

I knew it.

Flash:

Three opinions, three different. Because I’m going Juve, Leverkusen. I think that’s the best, maybe Sevilla Leverkusen would be the best [inaudible 00:28:56] the eye.

Alex Classic Tips:

So we might be all wrong if you think about it, right?

Flash:

I’m never wrong because I just erased this tape and then say I said something else. So don’t even worry about that. So from everyone in the chat… Go on Stinch, you can still talk over me.

Mark Stinchcombe:

We’ve got to cheer on Juve, for the outright bet-

Flash:

We have plus 800. Exactly that and then because we can bet the other team, we can have three units on them and we… Okay Don, Roma versus Sevilla, you’re not on a roll, maybe I’d put hold on telling her that you love her. Just until you are on a roll. From everyone at betUs good luck in whatever you’re doing in Champions League and Europa League. And Don, maybe just take a poll and we’ll talk again towards the end of the week. Thanks to Alex, thanks to Mark. From everyone at BetUs May all your bets be winners. You take care.