Sevilla vs Roma UEL Final Predictions | Europa League Odds, Soccer Predictions & Free Tips

When we talk about profit, then one man who normally always finds profit at this time of year is from the Bundesliga Show and obviously stalwart of the Europa League Show, and that’s our Alex Classic Tips. If you don’t know what Alex Classic Tips, it’s basically both teams to score and over, which I fancy may well be redundant in this game. But on the other side of the fence to his yang, we have a ying, because we have world odds compilest in Mark Stinchcombe. He’s the one that finds the value and finds the lines that are wrong. Whether we are right or wrong and we pick up money, we need to be on the right side prior to the game kicking off, and that is why he’s here. And not many do it better.

By the way, he tipped up the, oh, I think there’ll be 34 goals this weekend, but the line’s only at 30. That was in the Premier League. Guess what? It was over 30, and it bang on 34. So welcome, Alex. Welcome, Stinch. I’m really excited for this time of year because we love the finals. Alex, first of all for you, nice to have a final in Budapest.

Alex :

Yeah, it’s very close to me if I want to see it. But all the tickets, it’s sold out. I cannot go. It’s 5 hours away from me with a car. I like to go in Budapest. I think that every year I’m going 4 or 5 times with the family. It’s a nice town, nice crowds there. Also, some teams in Hungary, their fans are very electric. So the venue will be full mostly with the Spanish fans and Italians, but we will see also some neutral fans who should normally enjoy a nice match between the two sides, even though I think that it’ll not be that exciting.

Flash:

Alex, just let me interrupt you there because obviously this is a final between Sevilla and Roma. So obviously, from Spain and from Italy, who will the neutral Hungarians cheer for? Good question.

Alex :

Good question. It’s tough. I think that it’ll be half half. Because yeah, it depends. I don’t think that they have problems with one country or the other. So there are a lot of fan bases also for Roma. Probably for Roma mostly, because Roma, in this kind of countries, Hungary, Romania, Greece, they have some great fan bases. Less from Sevilla. But I don’t think that it’ll be a big problem for Sevilla, knowing that the experience that they have at this level in European finals and also Spanish teams in the finals are normally doing very well. Most important, Sevilla have won it so many times and they know how it is to win it. But on the other side we have Mourinho, who already won the Conference League last year. And on this century I think that only four Italian teams have won back-to-back European competitions, right? So I don’t know what to say. Also, the odds suggest, we’ll talk about the odds later, but it’s 50/50 also.

Flash:

We like 50/50. We like that. We like [inaudible 00:04:47]. We do, we like 50/50 because it normally ends up with penalties at the end, but we’re not going to spoil the selections. Stinch, first of all, Sevilla, this is their 7th visit to a Europa League final in the last 17. They’ve really monopolized it. They were in a tough group in the Champions League, obviously with Dortmund and with Man City, but they did finish fifth. But now they come up against a Roma side who had, I think for the last 6, 7, maybe 8 weeks, they’ve been concentrating on getting to this final.

Mark :

Yeah, a hundred percent. I think the thing with Sevilla is no doubtedly, they are one of the top 5 or 6 teams in Spain. But they just have that period where they overachieve and get into the Champions League, and then they end, as you say, end up finishing 3rd and dropping into Europa League. Then they have another spurt where they overachieve and get themselves to the final. They just seem to be very, very consistent at being sort of the fourth-best team in Spain, and essentially that leads them to going far and deep in the competition. It’s incredible really, how they keep, not only do they keep finishing in the final, but they go on to win it. They beating Benfica the first time in 2013.

And it’s not just small teams they’re beating as well, they beat Inter Milan last time, and Sevilla were outsiders in that game. So yeah, you got to give them a lot, lot of credit. But then at the same time, this is Jose Mourinho and he’s won all 5 European finals as a manager. So it’s very, very, very difficult to split them. And you’re absolutely right, it could be another game that goes the distance. And we’ve already seen that in the biggest game in England over the weekend. Two of the games go to penalties. Yeah, let’s see whether we’ll end up discussing that later on as well.

Flash:

Yeah. Again, extra time is a massive factor. But all the bets that we put on, unless it’s a method of victory, is only over 90 minutes. So don’t start crying if you are on Roma money line and then obviously Roma win in the 108th minute. That means it was a draw, so the draw. There will be a 75-minute market as well. Everyone in the chat, well, Billy’s like, “You have to bet Mourinho.” Danny’s like, “Let’s eat.” Make sure you keep all them comments flying through.

Let’s get some meat on the bone for you. The first of the, there’ll be the money line graphics will be that first one. It’s Sevilla versus Roma. Sevilla, they’re +175, Roma at +185 tells you everything you need to know. The draw is at +195. I always say that if the draw is anywhere near +200, then the chances are that this is going to be a very tight game and you are going to find a draw. There is the 75-minute market as well. So maybe the draw over the 75 minutes and not get done in the last 20, this is going to be about +185. The under/over is set at 2, with the over 2 being at -115. So even the under 2 at -115 is one of those that they think 2 worst case scenario. I tell you what, how do you split these over 90 minutes? Alex, will come to you first.

Alex :

Over 90 minutes is very difficult to split these two teams, and the odds are telling us everything about this. And as you said, it’s even less than +200. The draw at +195. And many, many times you were right, betting the draw when it’s under +200. So we might need extra time, we might need even penalties, because the last two Europa League finals had penalties, and we enjoy a nice entertaining final between two sides that this is their only chance to play in a…

Flash:

Champions League.

Alex :

Sorry, in the Champions League next season. Roma are sitting 6th in La Liga… in Serie A. No chance because they are 6, 7 points behind 4th place, it’s AC Milan. On the other side, Sevilla, they had a disappointing season in La Liga. They are just 11th right now. But they have all their eggs in one basket, and this is Europa League. So this is their only chance to play in Europe next season. In Europe, I’m not even talking about the Champions League, I’m talking Europa League, Conference League, whatever because they are 11th. So down they were. But since Mendilibar came, they improved hugely in my opinion. They impressed me week after week. And I love the fighting spirit that they showed against Juventus in the semi-finals in both legs.

Both managers rested many of their key players last weekend. Both were coming of 2-1 defeats. Sevilla against Real Madrid, AS Roma against Fiorentina. And it was normal. I think that both teams are looking forward to this final and they didn’t even care about those defeats. The funny thing is that while Sevilla haven’t won any of the Europa League games held outside of Spain this term, so drawing 2, losing 2. But also Roma, happened the same with them. But for Roma it’s worse because they didn’t even find back of the net on neutral on outside their venue, outside the country.

So I think that I presume, I don’t know what will Jose Mourinho think, but I think that we are expecting a very cagey match. Roma doesn’t have so much firepower lately, and this is something to worry for the fans because they’re not creating a lot of chances, they’re having some defensive approaches week after week, and no matter where they’re playing, domestically or in Europe. We’ve seen that against Bayer Leverkusen, and they did it with style. But it was a bit of a disgrace looking at their match in Germany. It was unbelievable. Zero shots on target. Goal attempts, 1. 1. Expected goals, 0.03. That tells you everything about Mourinho style.

And I don’t think that you will risk anything in the first half. In my opinion that is the best way to go. Because this game could go either way, and the odds, again, are telling that to us. But I think that Sevilla has the first chance to do it. I think that Sevilla has the experience, I think that Sevilla has the firepower. They are bringing a lot of balls inside the box. This is what we like. They are creating a lot since Mendilibar came. They have a good pace on the wings. They have En Nesyri, they have Ocampos, they have good players. The only minor here is that Acuna, very stupid from him, but who am I to judge, got red carded against Juventus and he will miss this game. It’s an important player for them. And if he was yellow carded, yes, he would have played here because all the yellow cards, they don’t count in the semifinal for the final, but the red card counts.

So he’s the only player, important player that he’s missing right now from the so-called hosts, because Sevilla, the so-called hosts for this game, even though this game is on neutral venue. So I think that draw at halftime or cagey match at the beginning. No one will risk, no one will try to come with many players inside the box. So I think that we’ll see a goalless-draw at halftime, probably. Something like that. And Sevilla to win it in full-time. But I think that the valuable bet here is Sevilla at PK or draw no bet at -120. That means that I’m expecting them not to lose in 90 minutes or if this game ends in a draw, you’ll take your stake back.

Flash:

Okay. So we’re going to go with money line graphics, then we’re going to have first half, corners, cards. We’re going to have both teams to score props, anytime scorer and method of victory. So Stinch, over to you. I’ve got basically Sevilla been having a little bit more attacking intent, but I also have them been a little bit weaker than the 4-5-1 setup of Roma. So again, I expect them to have more of the ball, but to run into a backdoor.

Mark :

Yeah, no I agree. I think it’s very dangerous to be opposing a Jose Mourinho in a cup final. He’s won 13 of his 16 cup finals as a manager. He is 5 out of 5 in European finals. The odds tell you kind of what’s going to happen almost, and so it’s for us to try and find an angle. If possible, I do think it will be a case of Roma will sit back and respect this Sevilla side that has been on a terrific resurgence under Mendilibar. To knock out Man United from two goals down, to knock out Juventus, very impressive. To get out of the relegation battle within a matter of weeks pretty much, and almost be in the conversation for qualifying for Europe in La Liga. He has just done an incredible job really. He’s only lost 2 of his 15 games in charge.

But Mourinho, he hasn’t conceded a goal in a European final since 2003. He just has his team so well drilled. And it’s not as if we can kind of say, “Oh okay, it’s at a new team now, it’s not Porto, it’s not Inter, it’s not Man United.” Well, actual fact, he’s just been in a final 12 months ago with Roma. So it would just be rinse and repeat in my mind. In his 16 cup finals as a manager in his career, he’s lost once in 90 minutes. Once. It’s just an incredible, incredible record. But then Sevilla, as we mentioned at the top of the show, they’ve won four of the last nine Europa Leagues. So even if some of their players have left and move on, the feeling around the club, the fans, the staff, they all believe that they can get it done. Yeah, I mean, as I say, the odds tell us a lot of all of that, don’t they? You can barely split them in the match odds.

I’m not surprised at Sevilla are slight favorites, because I think you’re right, Flash, they are the ones that are actually going to do most of the question asking, essentially. And Roma will look to try and pick them off on the counter-attack potentially, with El Sharaawy and others. Mourinho knows all about the fine margins in football. So this is Mendilibar’s first cup final I think, unless I’m mistaken. So it’d be really, really interesting to see how he goes about it. Because generally, he’s been a manager that’s been sort of putting out fires for relegation sides. I know Sevilla were in the relegation conversation, but they shouldn’t have been there really with the talent they have available. So this is very much new territory for him. So yeah, I’m very much like the market, I don’t really want to have to pick who’s going to win here because I think we can get some more value in the side markets essentially. So yeah, no bets for me in the main markets.

Flash:

Okay. So let’s move on then. “Are we actually going to be doing the individual picks per graphic?” Yes, we are. Thank you very much, my producer. So Sevilla, pick them at -120. For me the draw at +195. Over 90 minutes, and it’s just because that’s the number, even though a blind man says that that’s probably going to be the way to go. Okay, next-

Alex :

And also, Flash, we forgot to talk a little bit about goals as some of the main bets on this entire game are on goals. I want to give a stat here-

Flash:

No, because that comes under both teams to score props, doesn’t it?

Alex :

Yes and no, because you had under/over. Didn’t you, on the graphic?

Flash:

Under/over? Oh yeah, yeah, yeah. No, we have them both, but the thing is the under/over was at 2, and they’re both minus -115. So that’s telling you that they don’t expect more than 2.

Alex :

But in the previous 13 Europa League finals we’ve seen an average of 2.92 goals per game.

Flash:

Yeah, no Mourinho though. You know what I mean? That’s the biggest factor there is. Okay, first-half odds. Because again, here we go. I think this is a lot easier. Obviously, anything can happen because it’s a cup final. But I think this is a lot easier to actually predict how the game’s going to go. Because you’ve got Sevilla at +250, Roma +260, but the draw is at -115. And with the draw, under or over, under 1 goal at 190. Stinch, you can go first. It says under 1. So if there is 1 is that a loser?

Mark :

No, that would be a push, so you get your money back. Yeah, I’m not really a fan of betting first halfs to be honest, as a general rule, because most of the analysis that I do and the end result we talk about 90 minutes. So it’s not really a market that I tend to delve into. But yeah, I mean you wouldn’t be surprised, would you, to see 0-0 first half, as we discussed really. Expecting a cagey game. You look at Roma last season against Feyenoord, obviously full-time was 1-0. Mourinho, when he was in charge of Man United against Ajax in Europa League final in 2016, I think it was, it was 2-0. So again, another low-scoring game.

We look back to actually his first European final was when he was with Porto against Celtic, and he actually finished 3-3. But I think that was when Mourinho first began as a coach and he had a lot of exciting players, especially at Porto. And they were a lot of fun to watch. They beat Monaco in the final of the Champions League the year after, 3-0. But since then, obviously, as we know, he is become a lot more pragmatic, a lot more tactical. He obviously famously won the treble with Inter, where they beat by Bayern 2-0 in the final. So again, another low-scoring game. So as I say, he hasn’t conceded a goal in a European match since 2003, and he’s lost just one cup final in 90 minutes, which is 1-0 defeat to Chelsea in 2018 in the FA Cup.

So I think the question here really, is maybe if you want to find a proactive bet, if you’re not happy to basically back the draw at -115 essentially or zero goals completely, would be maybe to back Sevilla to score, because I think they are the ones that are going to be asking the questions, especially in the second half of the match. I’m not sure Mourinho specifically goes out to try and get to penalties. I think he looks to find, right, what chances can I make in the 120 minutes, if he makes it into an extra time game. But in the first half especially, he won’t be letting any of his players go forward, hardly past the halfway line in my mind.

And we’ve seen Sevilla take the lead away against Juventus, another Italian club in their away leg. And what we’ve seen so far of Mendilibar in charge of Sevilla, I know it’s only been 15 games, but they’ve been actually quite good at creating chances. Their expected goals has been really, really good. They beat Real Madrid at the weekend with unexpected goals, even though they obviously rotated a lot. So that would be maybe where I would go, would perhaps be Sevilla pick a first half at -120 if I was forced to take a bet.

Flash:

Okay, yeah. I certainly wouldn’t recommend Sevilla over half a goal at +155. Because if Sevilla score first half, you go with Sevilla money line at +250. It’s like 95 cents better off. Because if Sevilla score first half, they win the first half and you don’t want to be taken over because it ain’t going to be 1-1 at halftime. There’s no chance I’m seeing 2 goals in my eyes. I’m happy to be proved wrong, not that happy because I’m going to be going for the draw at halftime and 0-0. Alex.

Alex :

Yeah, it’s very interesting to see how Mourinho approach this games in Europa League in the knockout stages. Basically, if you’re looking at the last five games, he never scored in the first half. He tended to try to defend well and strike on the brake, right? But I think that Sevilla will dictate the pace, like Stinch said. I think that you saw them also against Manchester United, also against Juventus, that they attacked from the first minute of the game. They pressed high, they try to score fast in the game. So I think that this is the way that we will see this game playing out.

So I think that Sevilla has the first chance to lead at halftime, but I don’t think that Mourinho will let that happen. This is why I also like the draw at halftime and Sevilla at full time. So maybe a combo, draw halftime or Sevilla at full time, which I don’t think that is less than +250 or something like that.

Flash:

Boy, yeah, it’d be more.

Alex :

More than that, because anyway, only Sevilla to win is +250. No, at 150. So we should see +300… 200, +250 for a Sevilla draw, draw halftime, Sevilla full time. I think that we can even play here, if you want as a prop and you can find it out there that Sevilla will have the possession throughout the game. I think that around 55% to 60%. So I think that -10 in percentage for Sevilla, it’s a very good way to go. If you find this very nice prop, I would play that with the-

Flash:

Unless Sevilla go 1-0 up. I mean, there’s a lot… it’s a big chess match here. Because Sevilla do not want to go 1-0 behind to Jose Mourinho Roma side.

Alex :

No.

Flash:

But by the same token is that Sevilla for me have the better and more comfortable players on the ball. So you’re right, they can look after the ball, they can probe, but they do not want to overcommit. Because the one thing that Roma do do, and I didn’t think that Roma were a better side in the semi-final first leg against Leverkusen, and they end up winning 1-0. I thought Leverkusen were going to score nearly every time they went forward. And you know how many they scored? None.

Alex :

Zero.

Flash:

Yeah, it’s amazing. So Sevilla cannot go 1-0 down. Okay, [inaudible 00:24:07].

Mark :

Draw, Sevilla is +500 by the way.

Flash:

Yeah, it was always going to be massive. +500 for draw halftime, Sevilla full time. Let’s have a little look at our first half bets please, because we’ve both gone for first half draw at -115. But in the chat they’re going for draw and also they’re going for 0-0 at halftime. And I’ve double dipped on this one, I do not expect 1-1 but I do expect 0-0, and it’s a +125. First half correct score 0-0, +125. And I don’t fancy I’m going to be hiding behind the sofa neither.

Now we’ve got other lines, and we’re going to move on now to corners bets. So if we’re going to go with the corners, I think you can take the corners bets, Stinch, because we’re thinking that Sevilla are probably going to be on the front foot a little bit more. So Roma under 4.5, this is first half… No, this is full game. Full game at 4.5, at -135. I know it’s dictated by how the game is going. Sevilla over four and a half at -115. And the total is at 8.5, which straight away tells you that 9 at -145, this is going to be very, very tight on the corner’s front.

Mark :

Yeah, I think basically what it is telling us here is that the market, it’s maybe been a bit lazy, essentially saying, okay, well, they’re very close in the money line, so we’ll just carve them down the middle for the corners, and both give them the total of four and a half. When if the match plays out as we think it will, I think it’s more likely that Sevilla have got a better chance of getting more corners than Roma. So essentially, I’d think that whilst the total of 8.5 might be a little bit short, I think you’re almost safer just betting on Sevilla getting more than their target there at 4.5. I mean, I know we’re expecting to anticipate a low-scoring game, but doesn’t it mean that automatically we’ll have low corners. Generally, a corner line would be at sort of 10 for example. So to only be at 8.5 I think is quite low.

And yeah, I’m very happy to back over 4.5 Sevilla corners. Just as an example, in their 8 Europa League games so far they had 60 corners, which is 7.5 per game. They come up against Man United twice, they come up against Juventus twice. So you only have to get 5 to get paid out. I’m quite happy to back that. And again, using the sort of template of last year’s final, when Roman played Feyenoord, Feyenoord got 6 and we’d have Sevilla as a better team than Feyenoord. Roma were faves obviously to win that final, and now Sevilla, they’re slight faves against Roma. So the market says Sevilla are better. And we know the fact that Sevilla have got four Europa Leagues under their belt in the last nine seasons, that they are a good-

Flash:

And they play wide men and they deliver. They deliver the ball into the box because they’ve got height in the box and they’ve got good strength in the air. I mean, I remember watching them against Juve and against Man United, and they do put the ball in the box. They’re happy to get to the byline, they’re happy to cross the ball.

Mark :

Yeah, I mean, they’ve got a great target man I think really in En Nesyri. I quite like him there as a lone striker. Then you’ve got, as Alex mentioned, Ocampos, you’ve got Jesus Navas. Obviously Acuna is going to be a miss, but I do think Alex Telles is a ready-made replacement. So he Mendilibar general plays the 4-2-3-1, so you’ve got sort of 4 options there on the flanks to get the balls in. And if Roma are going to sort of park the bus a little bit, then it kind of feels like Sevilla might be forced to play even more balls over the top and round the corner, and try and get round the sides because it’d be so packed in the middle. So yeah, they normally achieve corners. And if we think they’re going to do more attacking than Roma, then very happy to back them to essentially beat their line when it’s been chalked up as equal between the two of the teams.

Flash:

Yeah. Alex, I’ll draw pictures in my mind when I’m seeing how this game’s going to pan out, and I think that Roma are going to be happy for Sevilla to have plenty shots on goal, but from 22 yards and out. If it goes into the top corner then, hey, it’s a worldy, you got to put your hands up. But then that brings in deflections as well. The over 8.5 is at -145. I know that’s not your cup of tea so you went shopping.

Alex :

Yeah, it’s amazing how many corners Sevilla games produce, no matter where they’re playing, Europa League or a domestic competition. They’re producing a lot because they are going on the front foot all the time. I’m a little bit worried about Roma’s corners. I’m going for the overs obviously, because I’m expecting Sevilla to dominate and create, on their own at least 8 or 9. So after that I have to pray for Roma to produce at least two corners on their own, because I’m going with the alternate line at over 9.5. But Sevilla to lead the corner count is at -110. So this is insane. Sevilla, the most corners in this match, -110. This should be a banker in my opinion.

Flash:

So yeah, I do as well. Is that basically with a handicap of naught? Is that what they’re saying? Sevilla, Roma, corner handicap of naught.

Alex :

What team has the most corners? Sevilla, 110?

Flash:

Severe minus corners. Yeah, listen, let’s have a little look at the official bit, because I don’t want to spend too much time on these corners.

Alex :

And I’m talking to you right now and it’s dropping the line. -110 when I said it, right now it’s -120.

Flash:

Yeah. I was going to say -120. I would say it should be -145. Sevilla over 4.5 corners, -105. I can easily see this being a 7-2, 7-3 type game. And remember, the corners are only over 90 minutes, okay? And over 9.5 corners from the alternate line for Alex at +100. I left that well alone.

Now, cards. Do we expect cards in this game? Because Sevilla versus Roma on paper says that, listen, both of these don’t mind cards in domestic games. Let’s have a little look. Sevilla, this is Sevilla to get cards, under or over maybe 2.5 cards. Do we expect over 2.5 at minus 170 or under 2.5 cards at +130? Any view on this, Alex?

Alex :

No, it’s not my bread and butter. But I think that both teams are aggressive. I think that we should see the line right now, I think is at 5.5, if I saw it correctly. So now there you can go for the alternate Sevilla team total and AS Roma team total. But I think that we should see at least six cards.

Flash:

You think? Who’s the ref?

Alex :

To be honest, this is what I was thinking now to see who’s the… Andy Taylor. Andy Taylor is there.

Flash:

Oh, there’s no chance. We don’t hit six here. There’d have to be a mugging to see one. I’m telling you what price is that under 5.5?

Alex :

-110. But I think that Stinch comes with the right approach for this market.

Flash:

Okay, what approach have you got then? Because I’ve got Sevilla on that one. Do you want the Sevilla cards up or do you want the Roma cards up, Stinch?

Mark :

You can put the Roma cards up.

Flash:

Roma please, producer. It’s a good team game, this. Over 2.5 cards, -135. Roma to get 3. By the way, let’s just talk about Anthony Taylor. Premier League ref, we know all about him. There’s no way I see 6 cards or sending off in this game.

Mark :

Yeah, I was going to come onto the ref. I mean, it makes things worse if you are an overs backer in my mind than it is an English ref. But generally, there is a little bit of a theme with referees that in a final they just try and let as much go as possible, because they don’t want to be seen as the villain, as ruining the game. And then the problem with that is is they let too much go and the cards don’t sort of appear until late on. And then it’s difficult to get up to the total that you expect. I mean, it’s not really unheard of to have a card line of 5.5 in a European final. But you wouldn’t be confident backing the overs, A, based on it being a final, and B, with an English referee.

However, having said all of that, I’m quite happy. I’m sort of doing the same sort of approach with the corners, with the fact that the market can’t split the team in overall ability, but that doesn’t mean that there’s nothing different on the side markets. For example, in a tennis match, if you’ve got two players that are very equal ability but one’s got a massive serve, you wouldn’t have them equal to win the ace count, you’d have one guy massively to get the aces. So I’m backing Roma to get the most cards here, and it’s at +150.

And I’m just kind of surprised really, a bit similar to maybe Alex’s surprised that Sevilla are not bigger faves to win the most corners. Normally it’s the underdog who’s the fave for the most cards. And look, I know Roma are only slight underdogs. But if Roma are, like I say, slight underdogs, as they are sort of +185, with Sevilla at +175, I would have Roma at sort of -115 to get most cards, Sevilla at -110, along that sort of line. So the fact that Roma are +150 and Sevilla are at -110 faves, almost on principle I think it’s worth a bet. But then we know it’s Jose Mourinho, so then I’m even more kind of confident. It doesn’t really matter for me what the game state is, if Roma are winning, they’ll bring out the dark arts and start fouling and tactical fouls and all of that. If they’re losing, I think they’ll lose the discipline and get upset. You look at the fact last year against Feyenoord, they won 1-0. The cards finish 4-1 in Roma’s favor. And even the goalkeeper got a booking for wasting time.

Flash:

12 to 1 normally, +1200 that is, either way.

Mark :

Yeah. Definitely worth a look there. And yeah, even if it’s team A, team B, I’d be tempted by the +50 on Roma. But because it’s Roma, it’s Jose Mourinho, yeah, very, very happy to back them. I’m really surprised Sevilla have been chalked up as favorites here. I think you could just be quite lazy as an odds compiler and just go, “We’ll just make them 50/50. I haven’t got to worry too much because it’s going to depend on who’s winning.” But yeah, at -110 versus +150, I think it’s an absolutely no-brainer to back Roma here.

Alex :

And then-

Flash:

[inaudible 00:34:49]. Go on, Alex.

Alex :

And in terms of stats, if you want to bet on a player to be booked, it’s a little bit crazy but Tammy Abraham got booked in his last three Europa League games.

Flash:

Yeah. Englishman, English ref. I don’t fancy that. It’s serious, because he normally gets done for high elbows or trying to chase back or anything like that. And an English ref against an English center forward will be understanding. Let’s have a little look if there’s any official bets on the cards bets. Yep, Roma most cards, +150. Okay? You can get all of these markets at BetUS. And by the way, what a great job they have done over there and that’s why I encourage you to type in that betustv.com/odds, because that takes you over to all the odds and all the props. We’re going to have so much more as we go forward.

Okay, let’s move on to the both teams to score props. Because this one, I don’t know, it’s one of those I just need to make you aware of what’s available. Because both teams to score, yes, is at +105, bringing in the 1-1. Both teams score, no, bringing in the 1-0. Or the 0-0 is at -145. But if you fancy no, then you’d probably be better off going with the under 2 at -115. Both teams to score and over, which is the Alex classic, is a massive +200. If ever you see both teams to score and over at +200, walk away. Walk away. Both teams to score and over 2.5, no. So in other words, one of the teams to win 3-0 is at +1200. Both teams to under 2.5, yes, at +500. Well, there’s your 1-1 draw as well. Both teams to score and under 2.5, no, -120. Alex, do you like any of them both teams to score props?

Alex :

If it wasn’t for Mourinho, I would go for it. If it was only based on Sevilla and based on what type of football they’re playing, yes, I would go with that. They played an Italian team in the semi-finals, both legs, both teams them to score came in. But here it’ll be a different story. If you like the both teams to score, yes, as you said about, no. I would suggest that you only play the over 2 goals on the Asian line, which is better in terms of value than the both teams to two score, yes, because we might see a 2-0, and we don’t get the both two score as a winning bet, but you get your stake back if you played the over 2 goals on the Asian line.

And if you like the no, bet the under 2 on the same reasoning. Normally, if you go look a little bit at the stats, both teams have scored in five of, Sevilla last seven games, and in Roma, last two games. But we already know that the last weekend both teams rested many of their key players, because they’re prioritizing this match. I don’t know if they saved, if Mourinho saved himself for this date or no, but I don’t think so. So I think that he will stick with his style of football. And it could go, it could even finish 2-2. It could go there, yes. And maybe with some beer money, go both teams to score and yes, at +200, just for the sake of an entertaining final. But logically-

Flash:

Entertaining final? 0-0 is the best entertaining finals.

Alex :

But logically, this shouldn’t be an entertaining final. Maybe it’ll be entertaining from other points of view, but goal-wise, I don’t think that it’ll be.

Flash:

Listen, there’s nothing better than being on 0-0. Every time the ball goes in, oh. Every time a keeper say oh. And the player you think is just about to score and misses, oh, it’s brilliant. But that’s the best, it’s the pain of actually watching a game. And I know that you don’t like your 0-0s either, Stinch.

Mark :

To be fair, I do quite like betting on 0-0s. But I have to say, I mean, I’ve been doing it for a long time and with decent success, but I have to say I definitely noticed a decrease in my success rate since the introduction of VAR, yeah. Basically it can just kill you. I think the referees overall and the people in charge, I think as a, I don’t know about a football fan, but I feel like their underlying job is to try and give more goals than they don’t essentially. So I think they look for the faintest tap for a penalty. Or if it’s just brushed down someone’s arm, try and find any excuse to give penalties and stuff. So yeah, 0-0 nowadays I find myself very, very rarely back in it because, yeah, it’s just fraught with danger.

Flash:

Yeah, but a final, see this is the other one, you have to be brutally blatant in the VAR to get that in a final because they don’t want VAR to be ruining. I mean, I saw again on Sunday, on Sunday obviously some of the leagues finished up, they could either go to VAR, and they’re almost not wanting to go there because it’s almost like unless it’s a hundred percent obvious, they’re not going to be making VAR be the decider. And I don’t think VAR will be a decider in a cup final either.

Both teams to score props. Stinch, Alex, anything for you?

Alex :

No, no.

Mark :

No.

Flash:

Okay, move on. Anytime scorers, well, this will be rarer than rare, because who do you want to go with? You go for Rafa Mir at +200? I’m looking down that line, Dybala +240. Ocampos at +350 cutting in from the left. And obviously, En Nesyri at +150. Who’d you fancy, Stinch?

Mark :

It’s a bit boring but none of them at the prices. If we consider the fact that the game is only expected to have two goals, you really want to be having bigger prices here I think if you want to be backing a goalscorer. If you’ve got En Nesyri there at +150, I think you’re better off probably backing the En Nesyri goal line over 1.5, and then you don’t care who scores. I just think it’s really too short. I used to quite like backing Pellegrini for Roma last season, but that was when he was on penalties. Unfortunately, now Dybala has arrived, Dybala takes penalties and we can see Dybala’s price there at +240.

There has been some injury problems though for Dybala this season. So if he doesn’t make the starting 11 and Pellegrini plays a little bit further forward. And he’s not listed there so I think he must be bigger than at +350. I think he must be about +400. I would be slightly tempted by him because he loves a shot from distance as well, so you’ve got that onside. But the thing is, we’ve already talked about, we fancy it to be a cagey, low-scoring game, so that doesn’t really bring in the goalscorers. And when you’ve got, well, how many players there? Is it seven or eight there that are +300 or shorter? I just don’t think the value is there unless you’ve got something intangible to bring to the table.

Flash:

I’ve got something intangible to bring to the table. No goalscorer around +525. And the reason I say that is because if there is a goal, it’s an own goal, you still win because own goals don’t count. So no goalscorer brings in the 0-0. But it’s also that very, very rare occasion that maybe Sevilla win 1-0, but it’s an own goal from Smalling or an own goal from Abraham or own goal from Pellegrini, and then you still win. And I always like that. Whenever I think it’s going to be 0-0, do know goalscorer, if it is 0-0, then you’ve cleaned up. If you do get bowed out by the own goal then that’s a winner as well, Alex.

Alex :

Yeah, I really like En Nesyri here. I know that the price is not great for him, +150, but he’s the top scorer in this competition for Sevilla right now with 4 goals. He scored against Juve, he’s going inside the box many, many times. During a match he’s creating a lot. He shots from outside, he has great shot from outside the box. He can score even from the penalty spot. So I think that he’s the player to watch. But, interesting, Erik Lamela, I don’t know if he’ll be in the starting 11 or not, he scored against Juve, he’s a former AS Roma player. Okay, 10 years ago, not now. But +300, why not? Paolo Dybala is questionable to be honest. I don’t see him making the starting lineup. Right now he’s questionable.

Flash:

Okay. Let’s have a little look for anytime scorers from the lads. Let’s have a look. You’ve gone for En Nesyri at +150. That’s any time, by the way, that’s not first goalscorer. Although to be fair, I don’t think there’ll be more than 1 goal, if there is 1 goal. So you could have him as first goalscorer as well, but it’ll probably be around +400, +425.

Now the big one is always method of victory. This is what brings in some big numbers. Because we got Sevilla at 90 minutes. As we know, that’s money line at +170. Sevilla in extra time at +1000. Sevilla on penalties at +750. Roma +185, as we know. Roma extra time is at +1100. And Roma penalties at +800. Alex, it goes to penalties, I bet on both Sevilla and Roma. That’s not the first time, I’m not reinventing the wheel, but it’s also not broke so it doesn’t need fixing.

Alex :

Yeah. As a neutral fan, you would love to see the method of win to be penalties, right?

Flash:

Of course.

Alex :

And also in terms of value, but both teams. And hopefully they will make it until then and say, “Okay, let’s drink a beer before they finish with all 5 penalties.” Or you close the TV and leave because you want a lot of money. Because it’s at least +700, +800.

Flash:

Alex, I’ve been known to put the kettle on and make my tea while the first 3 or 4 penalties are being taken. And I just hear it. I just hear it in the background because really, I don’t care unless it’s one of my teams that I’m really involved in. Because I know that I’ve already cashed and I’ll just walked back in to see which one of them’s cashed.

Alex :

Plus it’s lotto. If you go there at the penalties, it’s not then anymore about value, it’s lotto. It’s pure luck in my opinion. We’ve seen some incredible players in the last 40 years since we’re watching this sport, missing from the penalty spot, on the most important moments of their life, right? So it’s all about here. It’s the mentality, it’s about the pressure, it’s how you handle things. So I think that this game might well go into that department, penalties, because yeah, I think that Mourinho will try to not to go there because, I don’t know, he doesn’t like to play penalties. He said it many times in his press conferences that he doesn’t like to go there. I really don’t know what to say. I think what I hope Sevilla finishes them in 90 minutes.

Flash:

Okay. Sevilla in 90 minutes. What about you then, Stinch? Are we going to see penalties? Because the other one is that I’ve gone for the draw. So if I do get done, if it doesn’t go to penalties but I get done in extra time, my draw, and obviously my draw at halftime has covered by penalty stake.

Mark :

Yeah, a hundred percent. I think straightaway here you can eliminate Sevilla extra time, Roma extra time. I would struggle to have a mindset where I think it’s going to be a really close game or I think it’s going to be a draw after 90 minutes and then all of a sudden see one of the teams pushing for victory in extra time and grabbing it. I just don’t think you can have that train of thought at this stage. In play, yes, let’s say one of the teams struggling, they’re down to 10 men or their key players have gone off injured, et cetera, et cetera. But not pre-match, so you can eliminate those ones straight away.

We’ve already talked about both teams in terms of their 90-minute credentials. And then yeah, as you’re right, there’s no way I think pre-match, you go into a match and you say… Unless maybe it’s like an FA Cup, you’ve got Man City playing someone in League Two and you go, “Okay, if it goes to penalties, yeah, I’m happy to back Man City.” I think you’d be far too clever if you can decide who you want to be on to actually win penalties. So yeah, if you think it’s going to go the distance, then as you say, you bat them both. I think if you Dutch them, if you stake correctly, you get +430. You’re almost kind of doubling… Well, you are doubling, you’re taking the draw at full-time, and then you’re taking another draw in extra time. Which based on the pre-match of +195, extra time draw will be minus money as well. So at this stage you are getting I think probably a bigger price.

Of course, you don’t know how the game’s going to play out and it might be a bit more frantic than we anticipate, but at least you’re not scrambling around trying to find a price or having to worry about your internet not working and getting your bet on. So yeah, if you think, I mean, we’re all in agreement really, we fancy a tight, cagey game. And if it hits 90 minutes, arguably I think there’s a greater chance of it going to the penalties than it finishing extra time, because the same caginess will just continue in my mind. So it’s not a huge price, is it? But I think if you already, as you mentioned, Flash, if you’re on the draw and you get paid out there, you’re sort of free rolling onto penalties, aren’t you?

Flash:

Exactly. And that’s what we always aim to do. That’s the best thing to do is we’re having free bets. And if there’s no odd, Sevilla won in extra time, okay, no problem. You know what I mean? I can live with that. But let’s have a little look at the method of victory, please. Because it’s all about me, which we always like. Sevilla by penalty is at +750. And Spinick, because you know me long enough, that it’s Roma by penalties as well at +800. Now let’s have a little look and see if there’s any questions and answers.

We got the answers, you need to have the questions. And before you do that, I’d like you to subscribe. And because we’ve got the Champions League show coming up next week, going to be a massive game, that Inter versus Man City. I fancy it’s going to be a little bit heavy on one side in the odds there, but we never know what’s going to happen with Inter who’ve done so, so well. Also, if you like your odds and your props, type in betustv.com/odds, $50 free bet on maybe $25 on Roma win on penalties, $25 on Sevilla to win on penalties. And you want to type in betustv.com/fifty.

Okay, Mitch has been advocating Alex Classic 2-1. Everyone in the public expects low scoring, sometimes value wise it’s better to fave the public, but it’s also better to not lose, Mitch. It’s better. Alex, you don’t see an Alex Classic, do you?

Alex :

Normally, no, you shouldn’t see an Alex Classic here, no.

Flash:

Stinch.

Mark :

Well, I kind of a little bit in agreement with Mitch. I don’t think any of us want to take under 2 goals, do we? So you kind of have to say the value is over 2 goals and just accept if it is the boring 0-0. I mean, Alex did mention that the goal average, was it the last 13 Europa League finals? The goal average is 2.9. Yeah, so there you go.

Flash:

Yeah. I .now, but you don’t fuel his fire. And also there was an old, I was told when I was like 12 year old, if you look around the room and you can’t see the fool, it’s you. Okay? If you go for goals in this game. Just go go for draw halftime and we’ll talk. We will be talking during this game as well, Mitch, you know that. But anyway, good luck if you are going to go for goals.

Let’s have a little look at the best bets. It’s 52 minutes old, this show. Alex, Sevilla, pick them -120 over 90 minutes. First half draw -115. Over 9.5 Corners at plus 100. But he definitely expects Sevilla to win the corner. And I think he said it was at like -120 for Sevilla to have more corners than Roma. I think that’s a good way to go as well.

En Nesyri, anytime score at +150, which again, the ball will be diving into that box so he may well have his chances. Stinch, Sevilla over 4.5 corners, in the game at -105. And Roma most cards at +150. I think the total they said was at five and a half. Anthony Taylor from England is the referee, so I don’t fancy there’s going to be six.

Flash, here we go, you know this. Draw +195. Draw halftime at -115. 0-0 at halftime is at +125. Sevilla by penalty is +750. And Roma by penalty is at +800. So I am going to be on the 0-0, which is better known as the Jose Classic.

Okay. From Alex, from myself and from Stinch and everyone at BetUS, please enjoy the Europa League from Budapest. We’re looking forward to that crowd as well. I fancy Alex is right, they’re going to favor the Italians, but then they also would like to be entertained, so maybe they might turn halfway through. Remember we’ve got the Champions League coming up. And tonight, make sure you have subscribed to BetUS TV or the BetUS NBA show, because history could be in the making tonight. It’s game seven of the Eastern Conference finals. It was 3-0 to the Heat. No team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit, and yet the Celtics now find themselves 3-3, hosting the final game 7. They win, history never been done before, so make sure you tune in and see which way the boys are going to go.

So from everyone in the chat, from everyone at BetUS, enjoy the Europa League. Alex, thanks for everything you’ve done this season. Really, really appreciate it. Stinch, great job, great job. Okay, and we’ll see and speak very, very soon. You take care.