MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Baseball Betting Odds [Friday May 13]

TC Martin:

And a good Friday to you wherever you may be joining us. This is the MLB show here on BetUS TV. TC Martin with you along with Jeff Nadu and today’s special guest joining us Mid Major Matt, Matt Joseph’s in the house with us here today. And we’ll be handicapping all of your Friday card here today, giving you our best MLB bets a little bit later on as well. Remember to like and to subscribe to this show and this channel. Real simple to do, just hit that bell. You’ll get the notifications when we go live and we appreciate everyone joining us. Remember Monday through Friday, 12 noon Eastern time right here on your MLB show at BetUS TV, and of course brought to you by BetUS, America’s favorite sportsbook . All right. Welcome aboard guys. Here on this Friday, we get ready for a big weekend of Major League Baseball, full slate of games on tap today. We’ll get into that here in a minute and first want to welcome Mid Major Matt. How you doing, Matt?

Mid Major Matt:

Doing well. I enjoyed yesterday in terms of I didn’t play anything, because that was one of the worst sets of starting pitchers you could have seen so far this season. So it was a nice enjoyable day to kind of watch the baseball, not have to sweat any bets out for once.

TC Martin:

All right. Well, Jeff and I were sweating out one game particularly last night. It was crazy and that was that Dodger game, Jeff. I know you don’t watch a lot of the games, but I had my eye on it from a distance. And then I gave up on the game after the Dodgers fell behind 7-1 last night to those Phillies. And then lo and behold, here come the Dodgers crawling back and kind of had a feeling they may crawl back just because of that Philadelphia bullpen. So, that was handicapped properly. And sure enough, the Dodgers get to 7-7. They’ve got base runners on second and third with less than two outs. They bring up a pinch hitter and he comes up and trying to bunt, a guy that’s never bunted in his life in a Major League game. That didn’t work out so well.

TC Martin:

So they had an opportunity to win it and then sure enough bullpen gives it up in the ninth. And then what happens at the bottom of the ninth, right when you think you’re dead in the water, Trea Turner leads off with a single. The Dodgers have the bases loaded against Corey Knebel with nobody out. And you’re thinking “Okay, got a shot here to go extras, play a little softball with a runner at second base in the 10th inning”. They don’t get anybody home. So, a crazy wild night at Chavez Ravine last night. A crazy game, but Dodgers fell behind early and could not fully recover.

Jeff:

Yeah, there’s a lot of weird things that go on, man, in baseball. I actually didn’t even realize that. I didn’t even watch this game over. Didn’t even look into it just because I didn’t it was 7-1 last time I saw it. I chalked it up. It is what it is and was watching basketball or whatever was on. Yeah. Also, I mean the Yankees yesterday. I know you look at that picture. I mean, ya know, he didn’t really pitch that well and they scored what, how many runs did they score yesterday? 14?

TC Martin:

Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.

Jeff:

And it’s like, I don’t know. Look, it’s expected because the Yankee’s not as good, but just a lot of weird things have went on. Baseball’s been odd. We’ve talked with some of the over under stuff and today we got Matt on. Maybe he’ll get it going a little bit here on our show.

TC Martin:

So one thing guys, we’re talking about run lines yesterday, about when to play a run line and when not to play a run line. I want to throw some numbers at you real quick. And anytime we’re talking about the Dodgers at home and we talked about it yesterday and we’re in another situation today with Clayton Kershaw going, the Dodgers are the top team when it comes to the run line. They are 20-9 on the run line and all 20 wins have come by two runs or more. So if you’re looking at a run line team, obviously the Dodgers is it. And if you would’ve played a hundred dollars in each one of these games, you would’ve been pocketing a net profit of $1,033.

TC Martin:

So again, run lines are very tricky to play, but with this Dodger lineup the way it is, it would’ve been profitable. And again, there are certain teams that have been very profitable this year. Number two, right behind them is the Mets. Okay. They’re 19-13 on the run line. They would’ve profited you $973. You want to take a while guess, Jeff, who might be number three or number four when it comes to profitability on the run line?

Jeff:

Yeah, I would probably say the Yankees. I mean, and look, all of this makes sense. I mean, these are teams that are first, fifth, and eighth in runs per game. You also look at all three teams you mentioned. What is the common theme? All have pretty solid rotations. In fact, some have very good rotations and all three have a good bullpen. If you have a good bullpen and you score runs, that’s a run line candidate. Pretty simple. I mean, it’s not extensive. It’s basic. It’s rudimentary. If a team scores runs and are going to give them up late, you’re likely going to have a shot to win a run line. I also will say, I’m not a big fan of home run lines. However, when you have a good close and things like that, I’m willing to think about it. Now, it’s funny you brought this up because one of your plays today completely goes against what you just talked about, but here we are.

TC Martin:

What is that? My play?

Jeff:

Well, I don’t want to give it away. I don’t want to give it away.

TC Martin:

Oh well, it doesn’t. And just like I said, I very easily could play the run line here, but again, I am going to be on the Dodgers, I’ll tell you right now. But yeah, the Angels are number three and the Yankees are number four when it comes to profitability, 21-12 for the Angels and the Mets actually have more run line wins than any, or the Yankees, I should say, have more run line wins, but not a profitability standpoint. They’re 22-8 against a run line, and their profitability is 506 when you look at a hundred-dollar wager, but that’s because their lines are so big and they’re so steep with that. So yeah, again, it’s really an art when to play the run lines. Sometimes there’s some luck involved here, but those are some numbers. I know that people like to look at run lines. Matt, I don’t know if you’re much of a run line player or not, but some thoughts when you hear those numbers?

Mid Major Matt:

I’m not a run line guy for the most part. I’ll only play them mostly home underdogs plus one and a half. Like in theory, if you know, Miami would fit that if I was interested in that game today. That way you get the home team, you get the last at bats, and if for some reason you have a rally and you’re down two, you score that one run, you win the run line. But yeah, I’m not really a favorites run line guy. I’m not really a road favorites run line guy. That’s for sure. But the one situation I will play them is home underdogs when it’s a reasonable amount of juice.

TC Martin:

All right. All right guys. So we’ll take a look at some games here coming up today and we’ll see if that run line comes into play at all today, but some hot teams right now and they are the better teams. All right. Let’s take a look at yesterday’s action and go to the record board as well too. We go to the top there and we’ll see I’m 27-23, Jeff there 13-18 base winner at 500.

Jeff:

[inaudible 00:07:05] begins today.

TC Martin:

24 and 24. And that’s good. That’s what we want to hear, man. There we go.

Jeff:

We need like an 18-3 run or something. We need something heavy.

TC Martin:

It could happen, but you’re talking about a Houston Astros run is what you’re talking about, buddy. That’s what, to reel off 10 straight, right? 10 in a row. That’s what we need to do here. That’s right. Or Yankee run, a Yankee line here, like 16 out of the next 18.

Jeff:

Yeah.

TC Martin:

Go on a run like that. Very capable of happening. No question about it. All right, guys, let’s dive into the first game of a docket here today. And it is the Yankees and the White Sox. A little replay of what we talked about yesterday, but obviously some different pitchers on the hill here today, especially for the Yankees. We talked about [inaudible 00:07:52] yesterday, getting his first start of the season. Really didn’t go that well as he gave up three runs right away, but the Yankees bats were just way too much for the Sox.

TC Martin:

And Dylan Cease got lit up like a Christmas tree yesterday. Today, the Yankees $1.75 favorite, Sox plus $1.55. Total on this one, a low one, seven and a half shaded towards the over here at -120.

TC Martin:

So today guys, Gerrit Cole goes against Vincent Velasquez for the White Sox. Like I mentioned, the Yankees have won 16 out of their last 18. They’ve just been a machine. They’ve been a money making machine as well too. And Gerrit Cole seems to be back in form here since his blowup on April 19th against the Tigers. This guy’s only given up one earned run, has 25 strikeouts.

TC Martin:

And then on the other side, Vincent Velasquez, not one of my favorites. And Jeff, you got a chance to see this guy up close and personal for many years there in Philadelphia at all. This guy has been progressively worse over the last few seasons. His ERA has gone up each and every year. Last year, it was right about six. The year before that it was about five and a half, and he is on his way back to a dreadful ERA with this season as well too. And we know one thing about the White Sox. They really can’t hit quality pitching. So to me, I do like the Yankees in this spot and it’s a play on Cole. It’s a play against Velasquez, but Jeff give me some thoughts.

Jeff:

Yeah. Listen, you have no argument with me on this. In fact, I don’t think there’s a lot of people that would give you much of an argument. I will say that I have a bit of an argument with how you played it. I just don’t see or understand why you would lay 175, but you could just lay a run line on a team you just described is very good on the run line. They’re on the road as well. This is not a good offensive team in Chicago. You mentioned Vinny Velasquez blows. Let’s just be honest. And yeah, I would play it run line just because I want to minimize the amount of juice that I’m laying. That’s just my thought, but yeah, either way, I like to play. Gerrit Coles is as good as it gets. And yeah, it’s pretty standard here for me, especially off a nice day yesterday for the Yankee lineup, good day.

TC Martin:

And I got no problem laying a run line with this and how we list it here or whatever. And again, a lot of times, like the other day with the Cardinal game, I think it was listed. I was laying $2, but I said, I am going to play the run line in that game. So, usually I make that determination if I’m going play a run line or not. Like I said, I do not make plays until I get the lineups. I mean, it’s foolish to make a play until you see who’s playing and who’s not. So for the purposes of this show, I’m giving the play out. But if the lineups add up and again, everybody check those lineups. They’re available usually 90 minutes before first pitch. And that’s the way you have to play baseball unlike any of the sport. Mid Major Matt, give us some thoughts on this game.

Mid Major Matt:

So I mean, a lot of the stuff that I play when it comes to baseball are not the normal things per se. I like the three inning lines, the five inning lines. And I love doing K props and I’ll give you a stat here. You know, obviously BetUS hasn’t put out the K props yet, but only one pitcher, the number seven and a half out there. Only one pitcher has gone over that number against the White Sox this year. And that’s Nick Pivetta who had eight strikeouts against Chicago. Everybody else has had seven or less. As a matter of fact against right-handed starting pitchers, the White Sox are averaging 3.58 strikeouts so far this season.

Mid Major Matt:

So to me, and this is not available yet, but it’s something you can look at certainly when it does come up, if you are a BetUS user, to me, I like the under on the strikeouts for Gerrit Cole here at seven and a half if the juice is reasonable, that all depends on your juice tolerance, but I think he’s a guy. It also depends on how much he’s got the clear going, the stuff going. If he’s got the stuff going, then he’s probably going to go over. But if he’s not got his little sticky stuff, then he’s not going to strike out a lot of guys, especially against Chicago.

Mid Major Matt:

Also, why not just look at the Yankees total, team total? I mean, if you really want to think that the Yankees are going to do well and you think they’re going to hit Vinny Velasquez, which they should, you could always look at the team total, because this team’s certainly good. And you know that they’re definitely going to get the at bats in the ninth. You know, the Yankees are going to bat no matter what in the ninth. So you get that extra advantage there. I would potentially look at a Yankee team total over in this one.

TC Martin:

Right. Makes a lot of sense though. All right, let’s lock it in here today with the Yankees, I’ll take the Yankees in this spot with Gerrit Cole, more of a play against Vincent Velasquez. And I mentioned, Jeff, that you watched a lot of Velasquez in his time in Philadelphia. And, I mentioned my thoughts on him. You feel pretty much the same way, don’t you?

Jeff:

Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, I think this really is one of those prototypical spots where people ask me and they’ve asked in this chat, how do you, when do you play the run line? This is your prototypical spot for it. Now, as Matt alluded to, Gerrit Cole occasionally can have those games, but look, oh, no, he’s terrific. He’s not here to defend himself, but Mark, I think we’ve talked about sometimes him and I, where we’ll argue with, he’ll always look at what may happen in the future. I’m looking at now. The truth is Cole is as good a starter as there is in major league baseball. So yeah, I like this one. Let’s go on here.

TC Martin:

All right, let’s move on to the next game. We’ll go to Colorado in the mile high city. And we’ve got the Kansas City Royals taken on the Colorado Rockies in this game. Rockies a $1.35 favorite that total in this game is 10. One of those rare higher totals. You know, in years past we would see this game maybe at 11 or 11 and a half, but you know, with the humidor and the baseballs and everything, obviously everything is a lot lower. The over here, -120 in Colorado here, looking at the, this game, you got Zack Greinke going for the Royals today. Kyle Freeland going for the Rocks. You know, for me guys, this is a play really on Freeland and against Greinke. Greinke has only got 10 strikeouts in this entire season, thus far, his stuff really doesn’t play well in Colorado.

TC Martin:

It’s been a while since Greinke has pitched there. And we know that Greinke really is not the same guy that he was three, four years ago. Let me say this about Kyle Freeland. This guy has been pretty rock solid in his last three starts. He’s given up no earned runs in one game, one earned run in the next and another one run in the start prior to that. His ERA in those starts actually you go back to his last four starts is 1.73 so Freeland’s been good. He is obviously their best pitcher. And like we’ve talked about before Jeff, you know, Colorado is much better at home and on the road. I know they’ve lost four in a row, but I love getting on spots like this when they’re coming back home with their best pitcher. They had a off day yesterday. Well, Kansas city had to play an afternoon game yesterday. And then you got Zack Greinke going who was very, very hittable. So I do like the Rockies in this spot, Jeff.

Jeff:

I actually considered this one because I’ve talked before about, I want to back them at home. Okay. I think they’re a good home team. Their numbers split wise have been terrific at home in Coors Field, as opposed to on the road. I kind of like the over in this game, quite frankly. I mean, you look at Freeland, you’re right lately he’s been good, but the truth is in four home starts over 21 innings he’s given up 13 runs. Opponents are hitting 290 against him. He’s got a whip over 1.4. He’s the guy that’s going to have base owners. You alluded to the fact that you’re not trusting Greinke. I will say this about Greinke. Okay. At this point in his career, the word I give Greinke, today’s word is “crafty”. I mean, he’s crafty. He’s a guy that isn’t going to be overpowering anymore. He’s not going to throw one by you, but he’s crafty. He puts him in the right spot. I’m not going to say he’s Jamie Moyer, because he is not 66 years old, but he kind of reminds me just how crafty.

TC Martin:

Or a left hand guy.

Jeff:

Yeah. Right. He’s just a crafty guy that knows how to figure things out and get things done. So I don’t know, it doesn’t really bow to it over for me because the rules are so bad offensively. I will go down the road that Matt just alluded to with the Yankees. I’d probably look at maybe like search number to team total with Colorado. They’re just really good at home offensively. But outside of that, I didn’t find anything here that I liked.

TC Martin:

You know, the thing with the Greinke, I got a chance to watch him a lot last year, last couple seasons with the Astros and basically he couldn’t be trusted last year at all, especially down the stretch, that’s why dusty relegated him to the bullpen. And again, he didn’t get really any post-season action whatsoever. And that’s why the Astros decided to say, “Hey, we’re not going to resign this guy because we’re just wasting money because his salary is so high”. But again, he’s that guy that will, be crafty but against good hitting teams, he will get ripped. And that’s exactly what happened last year. I mean, there’s so many games when this guy just got ripped and again, he can fool a lot of the free swinging guys, the younger players and do that. But against veterans like Charlie Blackmon lights them up. So it’s you have to be careful about Greinke. Like I said, he’s not going to throw the ball over 87 miles per hour. He’s going to be grunting on every pitch. And again, with that thin air, as we’ve seen guys that are breaking ball pitchers or off speed pitchers usually do not do well in Colorado. You know, the air messes with that. So, let’s remember Greinke is not that same guy that we’ve seen in years past.

Jeff:

Real quick, this is also probably one of the first games he’s going to face a really formidable lineup. Detroit, the White Sox, Minnesota, Baltimore, the Guardian. I mean a lot of for the most part, poor lineups in there. This is a tougher one. I’m interested to hear what Matt thinks on this one.

TC Martin:

What do you think Matt?

Mid Major Matt:

So I took the Rockies first five. I want nothing to do with the Rockies bullpen. I want nothing to do with bullpens this season or any season. I think other than full game overs, I’m not taking a full game play in my arsenal. So I just want to go with the first five here you guys have kind of talked about with regards to, you know, Greinke is a guy that just doesn’t as you said, strike people out. And I think he’s, he’s cagey enough to get through the lineup the first time and that’s what the numbers show. But the second time through the lineup is when people start saying, “Okay, he’s throwing slow. He’s putting it all over the place. I just have to wait and hit he’ll hit his spots”. The fact, the one trend that I loved last year and the books are finally onto it was taking K prop unders for the opposition in Coors Field because either they’re not going to last very long or this Rockies team just didn’t strike out a ton.

Mid Major Matt:

Outside of Ryan McMahon there weren’t a ton of guaranteed strikeouts in this lineup. And to kind of go along with that trend so far, this year they’ve only had 13 lined home games because they’ve had some pitchers go there that haven’t had K props, but they’ve gone under their K profit eight times of those 13. Now the problem is the books that have put out the number have said two and a half and two and a half for a guy, even though he only strikes one or two out a game, that’s one good inning. That’s a couple of random strikeouts, one in three different innings. So the books have finally caught on to one of my favorite trends last year of taking the opposition K prop under two and a half strikeouts is rarely seen in the K prop market.

Mid Major Matt:

But I like the Rockies first five. They’re averaging two more runs per game at home than their opponents in the first five. They’re averaging almost four runs per game in the first five at home. And the Royals are 1.75 ish on the road. So give me the Rockies in the first five innings.

Jeff:

He makes an interesting point. Obviously, anytime we have a new voice here, I mean he brings up bullpens. Obviously Matt and I have tussled before on college basketball stuff. For the most part, I agree with him though, when it comes to Colorado, you have to talk about it. This bullpen is shocking. I mean, they’re right up there with Cincinnati. They have the highest whip of any bullpen in the league. And when you look at their save numbers, which is kind of interesting. They have the second most saves in baseball.

Jeff:

Now that might come across to you as good, but what it underlies is they play in close games a lot. I mean, a save opportunity is within obviously through runs, we obviously know what a save opportunity is. A lot of close games there. Okay. A lot of blown leads a lot of things of that nature. So yeah, I think he’s dead right now. One thing I don’t agree with him is I mean I’m playing full game with Yankees in Houston. Matt, those bullpens are good. I mean, what do you mean that you’re not going to play? You don’t like those teams, the Mets. I mean, these teams have good bullpen. Are you just saying that you are going to take the thought of relievers are relievers and they just, I don’t want to back 80% of them, 90% of them?

Mid Major Matt:

Well, I’m not going to take juices above -160 on the money line. It’s just not me. I don’t think if you’re going to do that, then you might as well take the run line. When I handicap my stuff in the morning, I kind of look at the bullpen usage the night before, but like, I don’t know enough about these bullpens mostly because I’m focused in on the first five. My handicapping styles and strategies base off the starting pitcher. And so that’s why I like the K props. That’s why I like the first three, because then you’re only going through the order once in theory. And that’s why first five, you kind of look at the first and the second time through the order. I just want nothing to do with the bullpens. Like give me the first five innings. Let me get in, let me get out. And then I can move on to a different game.

Jeff:

Hey TC, I will say one thing about Matt. He’s the guy that he definitely finds value in some of these newer ways to bet. So for me, I’m an over underside guy. It is what it is. Team totals, things like that. He goes and like baseball find like first three or like a K prop, like some of the new offerings available. Which, he’s a detective. He finds those things.

TC Martin:

Yeah. He’s a prop guy I can see that. I’ll say this on the other side of that though, Matt, you can’t just be a prop guy because those numbers don’t work out over in the long run. And that’s documented here. I will say this about this game right here. No, I’m going to say this when you look at, and again, that’s not the argument. The argument here is that in a situation you have to pick and choose when you’re going to do a first five and this isn’t the game because Kansas City’s bullpen is worse than Colorado’s. You do that when you have a great starting pitcher on your side and you’re afraid of that bullpen. There’s nothing to be afraid of with Kansas City. Colorado could win this game, five to nothing today. They could win it 10 to four, 10 to five because Kansas City is just as bad after they go to their starter as well too. So I don’t think you can pigeonhole yourself and to say, “well, I’m only a first five guy”. You have to look at the situation. In this situation here, Kansas City’s garbage, especially their bullpen. So.

Mid Major Matt:

Okay. If that’s what you think. I mean, I’ve done the first five thing and I’ve done pretty well in the prop market. And I think I can be ahead of the prop market as something I can live off of.

TC Martin:

And I’m not saying you can’t, I’m not saying that, but I’m saying you just can’t be a pigeonhole guy to say, “I like this”. Like in this game right here, if you could only lay 135 you have to look at that as a full game situation in instead of, not either instead, but just look at it as an option. Like, okay, I’m not laying 175. Because you say you don’t like laying a lot of juice. 135 with the Colorado at home and in this situation looks pretty good. And again, you have to handicap that against the bullpen of the opponent. And I think that Kansas City’s bullpen is what, they’re 28th in the league when it comes to giving up runs and everything else. So.

TC Martin:

I’m rooting you on. I think we can both win this game and I hope that we both win this game. So I’ll lay the 135. Lock Matt in at the first five price here with Colorado.

Jeff:

The truth is TC. I mean, one of the better plays in this game could just be betting the game over. I mean, both bullpens suck. Okay. That’s just the truth.

Speaker 1:

But Jeff you’re asking Kansas City to partake with that. When you’re playing a total, you need both sides to do that. And the way Freeland’s been, how can you back Kansas City, the way Freeland’s been?

Jeff:

Right. Well, look, as far as how he’s been, he’s been terrible at home and he’s been terrible in night games. Which, it’s a double fold one. And Kansas city, here’s what I say. You’re you’re not wrong. I mean, Kansas City’s got one of the worst offenses in major league baseball. However, on the road they’re significantly better offensively as far as runs per game. I mean, they’re averaging almost a run and a half more on the road as opposed to that home. So I don’t know. I hear you. If Kansas City could score four or five runs, I think you’re going to have a shot at this one. I could see a six-five. I could see it.

TC Martin:

Yeah. We’ll see how it plays out. Like I said, I’m laying 135 and then Matt will lay 140 and rooting for the Rockies’ bats to come alive today and get a good showing from Kyle Freeland, which we expect if we’re going by his recent outings have been very, very good. So, go Rockies for us today.

TC Martin:

Next game on the docket Phillies and the Dodgers. Kyle Gibson, going for the Phillies. Clayton Kershaw, going for the Dodgers. Heavy line here with the Dodgers as expected -220, probably a good opportunity for the run line in this one. But you know, the way the Phillies have been swinging the bats may be a little bit scary here today. The total in this game is eight, which is kind of high for a Dodger night game at Chavez Ravine.

TC Martin:

But the reason why you’re seeing that number, it is slightly shaved to the under, at 115 is because of what the Phillies have been doing offensively lately and what the Dodgers definitely are capable of. Last night, we saw a game that just skyrocketed the nine-seven final. Kyle Gibson, 0-3 against the Dodgers. His ERA is nine against them. Jeff and I have talked about not being a Kyle Gibson fan much at all. He’s bounced around. Now he’s in a situation there in Philadelphia. His last time that he faced the Dodgers, he gave up six earned runs, gave up seven hits. On the flip side, Clayton Kershaw back on the mound for the Dodgers today. Kershaw’s given up one or no runs in four of his last five starts. And we know what the Dodgers do at home too. They’ve been very, very good, even though they lost last night, they are 10 and three at home. Jeff, talk a little bit about the bouncing back on the Dodgers here.

Jeff:

Yeah, just a little simple one bounce back. I got Clayton Kershaw who look, say what you want about cheers and all these other guys. I mean, Kershaw’s as good as he gets and this guy’s still terrific. Still a terrific overpowering dominating guy. The edge again. I mentioned it yesterday. It didn’t end up coming to fruition, but look, the Dodgers advantage in the bullpen is quite large. Frankly. You mentioned Gibson. I don’t like Gibson. I never have. In fact, outside of the Mets he hasn’t pitched that great. He dominated the Mets weirdly enough, but you talked about his past numbers. This is a guy in Kershaw who, for as long as his career has been, he’s seen a lot of guys over his career. No one in the Phillies, really, even in the limited at bats has good numbers against them, we also kind got to continue to talk about Bryce Harper.

Jeff:

I mean, he has an injury, he’s going to keep playing through it, but kind of take him out of the field. You know, maybe that hurts him a little bit at the plate. So I just don’t think the Phillies you mentioned they’ve gotten going a little bit recently. One thing I’ve learned about them is they’re very inconsistent. They’ll look great for a couple of games. Then they’ll come right back to normal. And the bullpen is not good. That’s a stark advantage in this game. I’ll gladly take the Dodger lineup back to back. I’ll play them here. I’ll lay the one and a half runs. I don’t love doing it with a home team, but I think they come out here and have a really nice vintage 7-3 type of win.

TC Martin:

Right. Matt thoughts?

Mid Major Matt:

So obviously I agree with everybody. I think the Dodgers are going to win. I’m not laying the two dimes. That’s just ridiculous. As I said, I’m not really a run line guy. So I kind of scrolled through BetUS’ offerings to see where I could find some value. You know, part of me thinks, all right, the Dodgers team total over’s worth a look. But once again, I don’t like necessarily taking them as much, because I’m not guaranteed that ninth inning. If they’re winning, they’re only going to have eight at bats. And if they score four runs through those eight at bats and they win the game, then I lose because the team title’s four and a half. So I was scrolling down. I was looking and there’s a category called most hits and it’s the Phillies, the Dodgers, and tie. And obviously a tie could come into play here.

Mid Major Matt:

I don’t think it will, but I’m getting the Dodgers at -135 to have more hits than the Phillies in this game. And you’ve got one side with Clayton Kershaw, who’s really good. And you’ve got Kyle Gibson who doesn’t give up a ton of hits. But as we talked about with Zach Greinke, Gibson hasn’t faced a lineup of this stature yet this season and several guys have really good numbers. Mookie Betts has really good numbers against Kyle Gibson. And then the Phillies bullpen as we’ve talked about is not good either. So in theory to me, I could see a game where the Dodgers crank out 10, 11, 12 hits, the Phillies crank out five. I win this bet rather easily. And I get, and I’m doing it at a -135 price. So this is where it pays to kind of look outside the box and decide like, all right, I think the Dodgers are going to win.

Mid Major Matt:

If you’re a run line guy, take the run line. But if you’re not a run line guy, how else can I take advantage of this? And I think this is a bet that does it. By the way, one other statistic, the Phillies have faced nine lefthanded pitchers, starting pitchers this season. They’re averaging six strikeouts in those games. They struggle terribly against lefthanded pitching. And you know, a Kershaw K prop might come into play in here as well. But I’m trying to find a way to play the Dodgers. And I think I did so with this more hits prop than the Phillies in this one.

Jeff:

How about that TC? Matt to delve it into the weeds [inaudible 00:29:21]. Listen real quick. He is right though. I mean, Kershaw’s been dazzling. I mean, outside of that one start against Atlanta and all the four starts. I think two runs he’s allowed. He’s been dazzling, so yeah. Is this a vintage best pitcher in baseball? I wouldn’t say that, but he ain’t that far off. This guy still got it.

TC Martin:

No. And he’s fresh enough too. Early in the season, this is when you can get Kershaw you just hope that Davey Roberts doesn’t screw this thing up. Like we’ve seen him do time and time again.

Jeff:

And they got a way better bullpen though.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Well at times they do, I mean, they didn’t last night and again the Philly bullpen Knebel when I watched him last night and he was just, he was scared that come in there like, “oh man, I’m going to blow this thing”. So yeah, it’s, it is crazy. And back to Harper you bring up a good point. You got to watch Harper because he’s injured. He had that MRI yesterday and they say, “well, you know what, we’re just going to let this guy continue to play through it”.

TC Martin:

But for the next month he will not be out in the field. He’s going to be a DH only. And I know he doesn’t like that. Will it affect him? We’ll see. Well, last night the second pitch he saw he launched it over the fence last night. So Harper is hitting well, had a big game last night. And again, he delivered a big sack fly and the night inning as well, too. So, got to watch Harper because if he’s out of that lineup, it is definitely a different Philly lineup. So, all right. So we all like the Dodgers in this game. Jeff and I are, are going to go with it. Whether it’s a run line or straight up banking on the Dodgers to get the “W” they’ve lost three out of the last four tonight’s the night.

TC Martin:

And if you can find that prop Matt brings up a great point. More hits for the Dodgers, makes a whole lot of sense there minus -135 more hits than the Phillies tonight. All right, make sure you hit us up on the chat room here with any questions you got, whether it’s the games that we hit on or games outside of that as well. If you got any questions, we’ll hit that here in a couple minutes. One game I did want to bring up guys as well too, is San Diego against Atlanta today. Yu Darvish going against Max Fried. San Diego has alternated wins and losses in their last six games. And you’re really not sure what you’re going to get with the Padres, especially with Darvish. I’m not a big Darvish guy at all, but I do like Max Fried and Fried has won his last four games.

TC Martin:

He’s given up only one walk since opening day, a masterful control. He loves pitching against the San Diego Padres. And you probably wonder, “well, why does he like pitching against the Padres?”. He’s only faced them twice. He’s dominated them twice. He gets really motivated because this is the team that gave up on him. You got to remember you go back. I believe it was the 2014 draft. This guy was their first round pick number seven overall. And he was in the minor leagues for past couple seasons. He was just getting his shot. And then he had to have Tommy John surgery while he was rehabbing from his Tommy John surgery. The Padre said, “you know what? We’re giving up on you”. And what’d he do? He went to Atlanta and has been stellar ever since.

TC Martin:

So this guy, every time he faces the Padres and it’s only been twice and it was up to him, he’d like to face them all the time. He wants to go against his team. He’s getting that opportunity again tonight. And like I said, he’s been very good all season long. So I think there’s a great spot for Fried. I didn’t list it on the plays here today, but I always look at those intangible type of things guys going against former teams and especially this one. This was not a very friendly dismissal with the Padres in Max Fried. But anyway, any thoughts on that game? Those games guys?

Jeff:

Yeah. I kind of like where you’re going there with Atlanta. Fried’s obviously been really good. You mentioned some of the intangible stuff. You also look at the fact that I’m not a big Darvish guy at this point and this Padre group, as you alluded to really, I think you mentioned isn’t good against lefties. Hitting 227 this season. Atlanta at home, maybe a first five minus a half. I could see a distinct advantage from Fried over Darvish. That might be a decent look, but yeah, I mean a lot of games. Definitely, definitely some interesting spots here with this one.

TC Martin:

Yeah. I think it’s interesting to match up. Matt, any thoughts on Padre’s-Braves?

Mid Major Matt:

Darvish is a guy you can get to early. His first time through the order he’s more vulnerable than the second time. So it’s one of those things where you want to jump on him early. And which kind of goes along with Jeff’s first five play, especially Fried is really strong the first two times. The question is, the Braves offense, it’s been a little bit inconsistent now look five, four, and nine, their last three games. But then before that three and three. And so you’re just hoping that the good lineup shows up tonight, but I don’t hate what Jeff said in terms of the first five, because Yu Darvish is vulnerable first time through the order.

TC Martin:

All right. All right. Go back to the questions here. Darrell wants some thoughts on the Reds. You know, we’ve talked a lot about the Reds, Jeff. Hard to back this team, but there the number one over team in baseball right now. So any thoughts about the Reds today?

Jeff:

Yeah. I actually, it’s funny, I had this typed into the box and I thought, you know what, I’m going to, I’m going to play Pittsburgh here. And then I thought, well, I don’t know, actually know what I’m not playing Pittsburgh. I’m not going to play them.

TC Martin:

It’s kind of hard to play both teams.

Jeff:

Yeah, you look at the over, in this game. Open seven, it’s up to eight. I mean, quick swift move up to eight. I’m not sure why these two pitchers were given a seven there. I don’t know something tells me that Pittsburgh’s the play. I’ve felt before the Reds are a disaster offensively on the road. So that could be your distinct advantage here, but neither pitcher I want to get involved with. Do you just assume this is seven and six? Maybe. I don’t know. A game I ultimately thought better of and stayed away from.

TC Martin:

Right, right. Matt, any thoughts?

Mid Major Matt:

I don’t like pitching rematches back to back. And both of these teams, obviously both of these pitchers obviously face the other team, just, you know, in the opposite place that was in Cincinnati. So it’s kind of hard. You have to have special situations where looking at maybe a team playing in Coors one time and then not in Coors the next time, but it’s really hard. Mitch Keller’s not good as it is and he just got lit up by the reds and now he’s got to face them again at home. He’s been a little bit better at home, but as Jeff said, you know the Reds on the road offensively, aren’t very good. They’re bullpen is not very good. So this was kind of an easy pass for me. I don’t trust either of these two pitchers and I don’t trust either of these two offenses to take advantage of the pitcher if they aren’t very good in this one. So yeah, it was an easy pass.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Darrell’s also asking about the Orioles and Tigers today as well, too. Lyles and Rodriguez. Yeah.

Jeff:

Up with this guy? I mean.

TC Martin:

Looking at some questionable offenses and pitching staffs there, but I have no thoughts on this. Want you guys jump in if you do.

Jeff:

I mean, these may be the four worst teams in baseball. Who asked about this? What’s the guy’s name?

TC Martin:

Darrell, our good friend, Darrell Turner loyal viewer. [crosstalk 00:36:33] but Darrell is asking about the Astros as well too. Are the Astros good on the money line today? Astros have won 10 in a row as we know. I didn’t get on the Astro today like I normally do just because of Framber Valdez. Framber with his control issues scares me a little bit, but I know this is a big game for Dusty going back to Washington today to chase the Nats. But the Nats are probably more healthy than they have been at any point in time this year. So I thought about the Astros, but not going to pull the trigger on them today, but just because of Valdez and his control issues. Matt, any thoughts on any of those games?

Mid Major Matt:

I’ll go back to the Orioles game for a second. Because remember Rodriguez faced the Orioles a ton as a member of the Red Sox and the Orioles aren’t great against lefthanded pitching, but if you do DFS or if you’re into the player prop sort of thing, Trey Mancini’s got great numbers against Eduardo Rodriguez for his career. He’s hitting 4-17 this month. He’s got a hit in every game this month, except for one. Sometimes you like to isolate these players who have great histories against a guy and you pair that up with the fact, if they’re actually hitting pretty well. So if you do DFS or if you’re into the player props thing, look at maybe like a total basis thing or a hits thing involving Trey Mancini who has really good numbers against E-Rod and is hitting really well this month.

TC Martin:

Yeah. That bodes well for my fantasy team has got Trey Mancini on my fantasy team. There you go. Jeff?

Jeff:

Yeah. As far as the Astros you’re right. Valdez does have some control issues, but look, it’s hard to go against the Astros. They are playing well, I hit an under with them yesterday. They’re the best under team in baseball, 23 and eight to the under this year. This does seem like one of those spots. I’m not going to get involved with a total just because of the Nats as far as the lineup. I mean, numbers wise, they’re not terrible. I don’t trust Houston or I don’t trust the gray though either. So yeah, I don’t hate Houston. I mean you’re not going to find any real issue with everybody Houston for me. But yeah, not a game I had a huge issue kind of avoiding. I don’t love [inaudible 00:38:39].

TC Martin:

Finally, one of the better pitchy matchups today is Gausman against Rasmussen today with the Blue Jays and the Rays. I tried to really make a case for those Blue Jays, Jeff, who I know that you can’t stand right now. But I do like Gausman but again, that Tampa Bay lineup can be a little bit tricky. Heck I mean again, no hit one day then they bounce back and score four or five runs. You just don’t know what you’re going to get with them. Rasmussen’s actually been pretty good as well too. So I really couldn’t pull the trigger on either side of this game, slightly for Toronto, for me with Gausman. But I don’t know if either one of you guys have any thoughts or numbers to back up a play on either side of that?

Jeff:

All I’ll say is real quick. I’m out. I won’t be looking at this series one minute. I hate both these teams. I probably hate Tampa just as much as Toronto, no interest in either of these groups.

Mid Major Matt:

Rasmussen has frustrated me terribly this season. Several times I’ve been on his K prop under and because he’s a guy they only let go five. They do not let him face a team, a line up the third time through. So most times he’s only going five innings, but like he still manages to get over the number, which is pretty crazy. The number in a lot of places is four and a half. Toronto is striking out a little bit more than they did last year. With some of the recent, the additions that they made, they’re just not connecting as much. They’re actually averaging 4.7 strikeouts against right-handed starting pitching. So yeah, much like Jeff, I do get a little bit frustrated with the Rays and the Jays it feels like they’re either on and they’re going to score nine runs or they’re off and they’re going to score one.

TC Martin:

All right, guys, let’s go to the best bets here. As we wrap things up on this Friday, get ready for a big Major League Baseball weekend. Jeff is going with the Dodgers today against the Phillies, laying the run and a half with Clayton Kershaw on the mound today. I like the Dodgers as well too. Again, more of a play against Vincent Velasquez. I’m also going with Yankees today with Gerrit Cole and then trying to back the solid pitching of all three of my plays here today with Kyle Freeland in Colorado lane, 135, nice price there as a Colorado is at home against Zack Greinke and the Royals. Matt’s going with Colorado in the first five banking on those Rockie bats that come alive against Greinke. And then if you can find the prop, the Dodgers more hits than the Phillies today, lane 135 with that one.

TC Martin:

All right, great stuff. Remember, make sure that you follow us here and on BetUS TV. And of course like and subscribe to the MLB show. We’re here Monday through Friday from 12 noon Eastern time. Remember hit that bell. You’ll get the notifications when we go live. I can see now why Jeff likes Matt so much there? I see the Eagles. You guys are both Eagles fans there. As I see the Eagles banner there, Matt, is that what you guys have in common here? Both Eagle fans?

Mid Major Matt:

Yeah. We’re both from outside, I mean he’s still in Philly and I’m from originally outside of Philly. So yeah, it’s something we got in common.

TC Martin:

There you go. There you go. [crosstalk 00:41:41] will too.

Jeff:

Oh wow. Don’t get into it. Real quick, before we go. A good story for all of you. A baby giraffe was recently born at the San Diego Zoo and he has a disorder that causes his legs to bend the wrong way. A sad little story. I hope they get him fixed, giraffes are cool.

TC Martin:

You know, one day we get a parting story about could be dead bodies nearby me and Lake Mead. And then Jeff goes to the baby giraffe story. Just [crosstalk 00:42:14] it’s amazing. You’re a heartfelt guy. Despite what everybody says, you’re a heartfelt guy aren’t you Jeff?

Jeff:

Yeah. Little animals. I mean they can’t [crosstalk 00:42:20]. They can’t help it. So yeah, I thought I’d bring it up. There’s a lot of bad in this world let’s help some of the good.

TC Martin:

All right. I like that. That’s a good way to end the week here. Our good friend, the base winner will be back with us and join us. He had a load management day today. We appreciate Matt for stepping up here today as well, too. So great seeing you Matt, have yourself a good weekend. Both of you guys. And remember…

Jeff:

He’ll be here on Monday too. I believe.

Mid Major Matt:

Tuesday.

TC Martin:

Yeah. So he’ll be back with us next week as well too. That way you get your load management day.

Jeff:

Yeah, but I wanted it to be three in a row. I don’t want to come here Monday. Monday get cards suck.

TC Martin:

You just want that three day weekend is what you want. You know.

Jeff:

Pretty much. All right thanks guys.

TC Martin:

Take care guys. We appreciate everyone joined us here on BetUS TV, the MLB show. TC Martin, for Mid Major Matt and Jeff need to have yourself a great weekend. Enjoy. We will reconvene Monday at 12 noon Eastern right here. The MLB show on BetUS TV.