Speaker 2:
Listen, Cortes so far this year is a top 10 pitcher. I do, I think he’s going to keep that up. I’m still a bit skeptical that this guy’s immediately one of the best pitchers in baseball. I don’t have as many in depth databases as Basewinner has, as far as starting pitching. But I do think Cortes is somebody that I’m at least afraid to fade at this point. Like I said, I think the White Sox are still a bit underrated as an offense. They had a lot of injuries. I think the White Sox will hit the ball better here throughout the year, especially against lefties. We know how good their splits were last year against lefties. So maybe they bounce back here in this game and have a big game, but Cortes has been so good. I’m afraid to do it. That’s why I just take the one side.
Speaker 1:
Yep. There it is. Okay. Yankee’s team total over four and a half for Kyle there. Okay, moving on. Our next game today, the Dodgers and the Phillies, a little rematch of that four game series that we saw as Chavez Ravine in Los Angeles last weekend. The Dodgers a $1.33 favorite, like the Phillies plus 1.23. Total in this game is nine, shaded slightly towards the under here, 1.25. I think, we’re not used to seeing a low Dodger line like this, for a couple reasons. One is, obviously, the Dodgers are on the road. Number two, Urias hasn’t really been good. And the other thing is the Philly bats have been alive and well. So again, you got Urias going for the Dodgers and Ranger Suarez who’s been pretty good for the Phillies. Thoughts on this game, Kyle?
Speaker 2:
Yeah. I mean, this is a warm game with the wind blowing out about 10 miles per hour. I wanted to say, for people tuned in here today, a nice little nugget here is this ballpark has been tremendous for overs, with the wind blowing out. In fact, the wind blowing out eight miles per hour or more, in the last 10 years, the over is about 61%. So the over has been a really good way to play this. This total is set a little bit too high for me to take the over, to be honest. And the Dodgers are not as good against lefties as they are against righties. The Phillies hit lefties well. I still think Urias is a really good pitcher. He is a better second half pitcher than first half. If you look at his splits for his career, 3.58 ERA in the first half, 2.34 ERA in the second half, which that’s one of the bigger differences you’ll see, certainly.
Speaker 2:
Dodgers only laying this price usually would intrigue me. I mean, you’re not going to see prices like this on the best team in baseball too often. To be honest, though, this is a game I’d rather pass on. I don’t necessarily like the Phillies in this one, but the Phillies are really good against lefties, third in the majors in weighted on-base average. Man, I trust the Dodgers more than I trust the Phillies, but this is one I’d rather pass on, to be honest, because the Phillies do match lefties.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, yeah. And again, this is a rematch of last Thursday’s game, when they met in LA. The Phillies won that game eight to three. Urias was actually terrible. Suarez actually really wasn’t that much better. Here’s what you’re going to get out of Suarez. I mean, he’s pretty consistent. He gives up three runs just about every outing. Urias, even though he was bad in that outing, he’s still got a ERA at three. So he has good control. He’s not going to walk a bunch of people. And again, he still has more than a three to one strikeout to walk ratio. So I’m willing to jump on Urias here, especially at this low price here. The Phillies’ bats have gone silent too. I mean, they’ve been shut out, two of their last three games. Let’s remember that.
Speaker 1:
And I think the Dodgers got a little bit of a payback for losing three out of four games last weekend. All those pretty much were high scoring affairs. The Dodgers lost the first three games in that series. And remember they had to stage a monster comeback in the late innings to win that Sunday game. But no, I think the Dodgers are going to show up in this game. And without Bryce Harper, that is a major thing. I mean, when you lose the best hitter in baseball, he’s locked into your number three [inaudible 00:08:33], it changes things around. And I don’t think there’s any coincidence why the Phillies haven’t been hitting over the last three, four days because Harper’s out of that lineup. So I think it’s a good spot for the Dodgers. The price is good. I’m banking on that Urias does not blow up. So I’m taking a shot with the Dodgers.
Speaker 2:
Fair enough. Makes sense.
Speaker 1:
You can lock me in there for that. I’ll take the Dodgers at, it says one 1.40 here. I think on the other graphic it said 1.33. So take your pick with that one. So Dodgers and the Phillies later today, in Philadelphia. And keep an eye on that total that Kyle talks about as well, too. Wind blowing out, warm night, there in Philadelphia, makes a lot of sense, especially with these two guys that can be very, very hittable.
Speaker 1:
So, all right. Next up, let’s take a look at the Rangers and the Astros. The Astros, a 1.70 favorite. Texas plus 1.50. Total in this game is eight and a half. It is shaded to the over at minus 1.20. Second game in this series. The Astros fell behind last night. Framber Valdez was not great in the beginning, but man, did he turn it up a notch. Came up with seven strikeouts. Was pretty much unhittable there, after the third inning on. And Martin Maldonado delivered a big three run double in the eighth inning to get the win for the Astros and for the run line players as well too. So 5-1 Astros win last night. When you look at these two teams, we know that the Astros are rolling right now. They’ve won 14 out of 17. They’re back home. They’re completely healthy. They had that nine game road trip. I had them last night, and I’m going to jump right back on them again today.
Speaker 1:
Jose Altuve had four hits in that game. And once Altuve gets on a roll, watch out. And the bat has not come alive for him, spent a little time on the IL earlier this year. And now, he’s really starting to feel it. So when I see Altuve get four hits in a game, I’m thinking he’s going to have a big weekend. And I do like the Astros. Javier, Cristian Javier is going tonight against Martin Perez. Javier did get ripped on the road last time, but I’ll throw this at you. Javier is much better at home than he is on the road. His last three games at home, he’s given up no earned runs. So, and last time he faced Texas, it was actually in Texas, a few weeks ago. He shut them down as well too. So the Astros rested Gurriel and Brantley yesterday. They’re going to be back in the lineup. I think we do know the numbers, but I’ll give them to you again. The Astros have won 11 straight home games against the Rangers. And I believe now the number is something like 23 out of the last 25, going back the last couple years. So I’m going to ride the Houston train here and take a shot with the Astros. Kyle, some thoughts?
Speaker 2:
Yeah. I agree with you on this one, TC. This is my favorite of your plays here tonight. Martin Perez is not this good. I mean, there’s no way. Look at his stats for the year. He’s given up zero home runs all season. I know he is a guy that induces soft contact, but a 2.01 ERA, zero home runs, no, this guy’s not this good. And I know it’s kind of a dead ball this year, and we’ve had a lot of unders, but his batting average on balls in play, so far this year allowed, is the lowest of his career. I think that’s going to change. You would think it would regress toward the mean. And if you look at Houston’s numbers, some would say that Houston’s been disappointing against lefties this year, but this is really interesting. They’re 16th and the majors in wOBA. And they have a batting average of balls in play of 228, which is way lower than anybody else in baseball, not even close.
Speaker 2:
So this Houston offense is a lot better against lefties than if you just look at their raw data so far this year. 290’s about average for batting average on balls in play. They’re definitely going to get a lot better against lefties. And frankly, you already said Javier is a lot better at home, for sure. Houston is a good home team. As you said, Houston’s dominated Texas, there. Texas is just a much weaker team, in general. And Javier, I trust quite a bit more than Perez. If you just look at this year’s numbers, Perez looks like a good pitcher, but look at the last two or three years. He is not a very good pitcher. I really don’t think he’s as good, guys. I mean, I just, I think that we’re going to find out. We’re going to see the real Martin Perez show up, at some point, and hopefully it’s tonight, TC.
Speaker 1:
Yeah. I just go back to Perez when he was a reliever, and he’d be one or two inning guy. And then, they made him into a starter, and he’s not going to go deep into games as well too. But yeah, you look at the numbers on the surface, I think a lot of people think, “Hey, this guy’s really good.” But when you really look at him, and you watch him, he’s very hittable. So again, giving it a shot with a Cristian Javier tonight, at home, and hopefully the Astros keep rolling. Remember, completely healthy, and that lineup is rock solid, basically from one to eight. And Maldonado, if he’s hitting, then in the nine hole. I mean, you’ve got everybody hitting there. And so, watch out for Altuve as well. So lock me in. We got the Astros minus 1.70, at home, against the Rangers in this one.
Speaker 1:
Next up, the Nats and the Brewers. Brewers a $2 favorite against the lowly Nats. The total in this game, at Miller Park, is eight. I guess, we’re not even calling it Miller Park anymore, but it’ll always be Miller Park to me. Total eight, even money, 1.10 on each side, on this one here. So Eric Fedde going for the Nats, here today. I usually always go against Eric Fedde. Eric Lauer is going for the Brewers today. And Kyle, give me some thoughts when you look at the Washington and Milwaukee kind of tale of two different teams, offensively and especially from a pitching perspective too.
Speaker 2:
Yeah. So the interesting thing about this one is I don’t trust Fedde at all either. I would agree with you. I’d much rather fade him. The Nationals are a bad team, in general, all the way around. I mean, Soto’s obviously the guy that stands out, but the Brewers had an off day yesterday. So those top bullpen arms are available. I like that quite a bit because we know the Brewers’ back end of the bullpen is so good. I mean, if they get a lead, they probably won the game. My only issue here, TC, is the price. I have a really hard time laying this big of a price. $2 favorites, I have to really love it to take it. And Lauer, I mean, I don’t trust him enough to lay $2 in this one. It’s extremely rare for me to take something bigger than minus 1.50 or 1.60 in baseball, just kind of my strategy I stick with. And I know, for some people, if I release a play for clients, and it’s my minus 2.70 or something, and it loses, then people get especially mad. So it’s one of the reasons, I guess, it might be partially for my own wellbeing that I don’t get really pissed off customers. But at the same time, it’s hard for me to lay $2 with Lauer.
Speaker 2:
I do think the Brewers are a good look here. I would consider playing them maybe run line, or even if you don’t like the run line, create a minus one, where you bet half of it on the money line, half of it on the run line to reduce your juice here. So a minus one on the Brewers, I think that makes some sense. Fedde’s a good guy to fade. Maybe, an over here. That would be at least a consideration for me. The thing that makes me not love the over is I think the Brewers could use a lot of their top bullpen arms here. So the first five over might make some more sense.
Speaker 1:
Yeah. And again, the line is definitely inflated for the fact is everything that we kind of laid out here. It’s Fedde. It’s Washington. They have all kinds of problems. And now, you’ve got rumors going around your clubhouse, right now, that Juan Soto could be dealt. I mean, that’s not good. I mean, this thing is a mess. And the Washington Nationals are already in sale mode. They’re already looking at guys in the minors of bringing up. I mean, it is a total rebuilding process over there. So yeah, should this line probably be maybe about 1.60, 1.65, granted it should be. My mindset is I’ll lay an extra 40 cents juice. And for people that don’t like laying $2, I advise you with this. That, okay, you don’t want to lay $2, then you would lay, basically, half of that for a smaller bet. So if you would like relay 1.40 or 1.50 in this game, okay, instead of laying $2 to win a hundred, lay a hundred to win 50. I understand it’s the same mindset, but if you’re afraid of losing money… And that’s why people don’t like to lay $2. They’re afraid they’re going to lose. Well, I don’t handicap to lose.
Speaker 1:
And in this situation, it’s Eric Fedde. And Lauer, I’ll say this about Lauer. This guy’s a strikeout machine. And when you really dig deep into the numbers, against a Nats lineup, you can kind of see where this line is $2. Going back to Fedde, he continues to be miserable. If he’s not giving up hits, he’s definitely giving up walks. Lauer, like I said, strikeout machine. 49 strikeouts on the year, only eight walks. Look at these numbers in these games. I mean, Lauer has had a 13 strikeout game, an 11 strikeout game, an eight and a seven strikeout game. In two starts at home, this guy’s given up one run. He’s had two easy wins. And the Brewers back him. They back him with run support. I mean, they won one of those games, I believe, eight to one and the other nine to one against Chicago and Pittsburgh. And Washington is a very similar team here.
Speaker 1:
So run line actually might be a play. Not crazy about home teams in the run line because you’re only getting that eight at bats, but if they can jump out to a lead. And maybe this is a good spot for Brewers in a team total as well too. I usually don’t do a lot of team totals here, but kind of maybe take that mindset the way you took it with the Yankees and the White Sox probably make some sense. And that is if you’re scared to lay the 200. But I’m going to take a shot here. Hey, the Nationals rarely win two in a row. Okay. They got that crazy win against Miami, on the road, a couple nights ago. I’m going to take a shot here with the Brewers. So lock me in with the Brew crew.
Speaker 1:
All right. We got some time for some questions here today and kind of an abbreviated show before we get to our best bets and wrap things up here. Scott has a question, and Scott wants to know about the Cubs Diamondbacks total today. Kyle, got any thoughts on that one?
Speaker 2:
I have quite a few thoughts on this one, honestly. This is a 20 to 25 miles per hour winds blowing out at Wrigley. I mean, that’s why we see a total of what, 11, 11 and a half, pretty much across the board. We haven’t seen too many of these 11 or 11 and a halfs at Wrigley lately. Now, I know they’ve gone under a little bit more often, in recent years, than they have in the past. I mean, the two pitchers here, I don’t trust Hendricks that much. I mean, Hendricks is not nearly the pitcher he was a few years ago, kind of like I said about Dallas Keuchel. Castellanos, not great either. Do I trust the two offenses enough to get to over 11? I mean, this is a… We have a neutral umpire in this game. Umpires are something that I handicap quite a bit. Ryan Additon, the umpire here, doesn’t really help the over or the under.
Speaker 2:
If I have to bet this game, I’d bet in the over. I don’t think I want to really bet this game that much. I think I would probably take the Dback’s team total over, if I had to take one side here as well, because the Diamondbacks numbers were due for some regression, offensively, for a long time this year. They had batting average balls in play way below anybody else. And finally, we’ve seen them start hitting. I think they’ll probably hit pretty decent here today. And as far as the side here, in this one, I don’t know. I think the number looks about right to me. I would imagine that the line will move up, if anything, here on the total, based on everybody seeing the weather report. So if you see an 11 now, and you like the over, I’d probably go ahead and take the over.
Speaker 1:
Yeah. And that’s definitely a win variant over. There’s no question. Because I don’t know how much we can really trust either offense because both of them are a little bit spotty. And I agree with you, probably a little regression we’re going to see with the Diamondbacks. Rick’s got a question. He says, “Seen a big line move here with the Baltimore Orioles. Are they worth a shot at maybe a dog today?”
Speaker 2:
Maybe this a little bit more just philosophy for me. I really don’t like taking ones, after I see the line move that much. I mean, I know some people say, “Reverse line movement, you got to back it then.” Baltimore was what? Plus 1.45, something like that, last night. Now, we’re seeing plus 1.15, plus 1.20. I can’t take Baltimore against Tampa Bay at plus 1.15 or plus 1.20. I think the Rays are too much better than them. I would lean the Rays at this price. Beeks will be the opener. And then, I assume they’ll go to Yarbrough after that. Wells is a pretty good pitcher for Baltimore. So this could be a close game, and I could see this one being a bit lower scoring than some Baltimore games. But we’ve also seen the Baltimore bullpen, which was amazing, at the beginning of the year. TC, I member, a few weeks into the season, Baltimore had the lowest FIP and ERA of any bullpen in baseball, and that’s really regressed a lot. And they’re right about the middle of the pack, and their bullpen is really not nearly that good. So honestly, I would probably lean Tampa Bay, at this point. I just don’t, I don’t like seeing a big line move. And then, just trying to chase it 20 cents worse.
Speaker 1:
Yeah. And I think where the money’s coming in here, with Baltimore, seeing them as a live dog [inaudible 00:21:47] is because the bets have come alive a little bit, and they played the Yankees pretty well. And of course, they scored nine runs yesterday with that. So, and again, Tampa Bay, we’ve seen their lineup go slumping, for portions of this year, as well too. So I could see why people are taking a shot with Baltimore, especially coming off the big run production and some close losses in that Yankee series. So, okay. Appreciate that. So, like I said, an abbreviated show here today, with myself and Kyle.
Speaker 1:
Let’s go to the best bet’s board, here real quick. And show us… We’ll show everybody what we got here today. I’m taking a shot with the Dodgers, a low price there, today, with the Dodgers against Philly, little payback, little revenge for them losing three out of four in LA last week. Stay with the red hot Astros with Cristian Javier today, minus 1.70. Rolling with the Houston Astros bats, especially today against Suarez. And then, the Brew crew. Milwaukee, at home, with Lauer going against Eric Fedde and that really bad Washington team. Kyle is going with the Yankees team total over four and a half. And he’s going to give up 1.35 to do that, but just bank on the Yankees scoring more runs. And that’s exactly what they’ve been doing lately. So, all right, Kyle. Hey, great spending some time with you here today, my man. I appreciate it. And thanks for everyone for hanging with us with our little rain delay today, but great stuff. And again, I know you’ve done a fantastic job on the college football side with BetUS, so hopefully we’ll get a chance to visit with you again.
Speaker 2:
Yeah. Thanks for having me on. Sorry that we had a little bit of a delayed start today, and I will throw out, real quick. I was going to put the Rockies game on here as well, as another potential looking at maybe playing the Rockies. But it looks like that game’s going to get snowed out. Kind of ridiculous, TC. Winter storm warning for up to a foot of snow in late May? I mean, Ohio has some wild weather, but not quite that wild. So no, I appreciate the time chatting with you guys and nice to chat some baseball. Looking forward to football season as well. And actually, that’s really not that far away. Give us a few months.
Speaker 1:
Absolutely, correct. Especially with Nick Saban and Jimbo Fisher going at words here.
Speaker 2:
Oh, man.
Speaker 1:
I already got October 8th circled on my calendar. Yesterday, I was talking about that.
Speaker 2:
Oh, yeah. We’ll see.
Speaker 1:
So that’s good stuff. And speaking of that, I believe that’s why Basewinner is not with us today because he’s heading to Colorado for a graduation, and he’s run into some snow. So I think that’s why he couldn’t join us today. So good point. All right, Kyle. Thanks a lot and good luck to your bets.
Speaker 2:
Thank you.
Speaker 1:
We want to thank everyone else for joining us here on BetUS TV. Remember, we’re here Monday through Friday at 12, noon Eastern time. Remember, like, subscribe the show and the channel. Hit that bell. You can get the notifications when we go live. And we’ll be right back at it again on Monday at 12, noon Eastern. Have yourself a great weekend. For Kyle Hunter, TC Martin saying so long. Good luck on your betting weekend.
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