MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Baseball Betting Odds [Friday May 27]

TC Martin:

See, that’s why you want to do the show on Monday, so you can get away from the honey-do list and the gofer range and so you could tuck yourself away.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, It’s brutal.

TC Martin:

Yeah.

Mark Borchard:

I get asked, “Mark, do you want to do this?” “Well, I don’t know not really.” “Okay. Let’s go do this.” It’s like, “Why’d you ask me? Let’s just tell me to do it.”

TC Martin:

That’s a holiday in the Base Winner family. I don’t know.

Mark Borchard:

Yep. Yeah, it is.

TC Martin:

How about you, Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

I have no particular plans. It used to be when I was younger, when I would go to the shore or whatever, but I don’t go as much as I used to, so I have no real plans go out on Saturdays usually. But I usually go out more in the summer when it’s into July and I just have some other things I’m doing, but I don’t have any plans. My brother’s birthday is this weekend. I’ll celebrate that, but that’s it.

TC Martin:

All right. All right, guys. Full slate of games the entire weekend, so we’ll look forward to that. Congratulations, you guys had a great yesterday, so nice job on that. I think I want to hit something here and give a little tip here. I’m going to follow up what Jeff said yesterday, because I felt the pain last night as sometimes we look at these cards, especially on a short day like a Thursday and we say, “Okay, who do we like and why?” We say, “Okay, we got to make a pick here. Go with your first instinct. Do not overthink this,” and that’s what I did yesterday.

TC Martin:

As I talked about the Yankee game yesterday that they didn’t give us who was pitching, I said, “Well, I really like Cortez,” and I felt bad I didn’t pull the trigger on that game. Same thing Jeff talked about the Nat’s game yesterday against Colorado. I said, “I like the Nats. I think Corbin’s finally going to get off the snide good win here,” but of course, what do I do? I don’t do it. I overthought it, overthought it. I know, Jeff, you said that yesterday, sometimes got to go with your first instinct, right?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, and that’s what I’m starting to do. We’re starting to have plenty of numbers with these people and these guys and look, occasionally you’ll lose. Like with the Dodgers you might pick the day where they don’t score and win on the run line, but most, and nine times out of 10, you’re going to generally hit those types of things, so you have to do that. I think that’s always been something I’ve tried to live by in all this. It’s not easy to do, but I agree.

TC Martin:

Base Winner, any thoughts before we move on?

Mark Borchard:

No, I can’t go on my first thought. I’ve got to fully torture myself going three levels deep with statistics. It just takes the life out of me. “When am I going to play this game or that game? Oh, well, this advanced metric says this game and put it.” That’s just the way I do it. I don’t think I couldn’t just go look at a card and be like, “Oh, I like that game.” Again, sometimes it’s torturous, I don’t know if you go through this, TC, but when you’re narrowing a game down, so I’ll have it to four games and then it’s, “Do I include this game? Do I exclude it?” I make a joke that it’s torturous, but it’s really a tough exercise. Then you get to, if you eliminate the wrong game, then you’re second guessing yourself the next day, just like what you’re doing right now. So there is a definite pain point involved in filtering the games down to make your best. I think that might go along the lines in all the sports, TC, not just baseball.

TC Martin:

Not only that, but I’ll equate it to shopping as well, too. When I go and I look at tomatoes, okay? I’ll sit there for five straight minutes. I got to get the perfect tomato, okay? “Is there a little green in this one? Does this look a little bit old?” or whatever. I’ll struggle with fruits and vegetables when it comes to that/ give me a packaged fruit or something like that, like a pineapple or thing, okay. I’ll even look at that and say, “Okay,” and I’ll look at the date, because I’m a date snob. I’m a date snob with bread and potato chips and fruit and all that other stuff. But with baseball, like yesterday, I’m sitting there going, “I like that game.” It makes sense? Wait a minute, and then I’ll analyze it and go over it and go over it. Then I’ll come back to it, this and that. “Oh, does this make sense or not? So it just [inaudible 00:05:03]

Mark Borchard:

It’s such a great comparison, TC, because it really hits close to home. I mentioned I’m the gofer, right? Well, on this weekend, I’m the gofer, but I’m always the gofer for going to get my wife peppers, and she eats 12 peppers a week. She’s very healthy, eats nutritiously, and she eats salads, but I pick the wrong pepper, it’s like, “How’d you pick this pepper out?” So really, I’m in the store looking through these peppers, and you’ve got to be very meticulous about it, so it’s such a good analogy because that’s what you’re doing when you’re picking the baseball games. You’re looking through and you’re going, “Oh, well, those are a bad spot on this one,” and hopefully, you can get the right pepper, right?

TC Martin:

Exactly. We always bring it back to food here in some shape or form, so I can appreciate that. I don’t know if Jeff does his shopping like that. I think Jeff’s a farmer’s market type of guy is what I think.

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t even do it. I actually, I do Instacart, and I just have them do it.

TC Martin:

[inaudible 00:06:01]

Mark Borchard:

No, that’ll take away the pain process. Then, you can just get pissed if you get a bad pepper.

TC Martin:

But I will say this, it’s not every day that I go through it. Today, no debate whatsoever. Two games I love today, so there are just certain days you’re second guessing yourself, so let’s rock and roll. [inaudible 00:06:20]

Mark Borchard:

Great segue way. Great segue way, TC.

TC Martin:

There you go. Let’s go to the board and see where my friends went undefeated, I believe, yesterday, which was very nice, good stuff there. I think Jeff hit to both his games yesterday, Base Winner did as well too, so congratulations with that, guys; records increasing, so very nicely done. Hopefully, that we can try to sweep the board here on this Friday as we get ready for a Memorial Day weekend. Again, everyone in action today got some decent pitchers going today as well too, so let’s rock and roll. Let’s get to the board for today’s first game. Today, we look at the Cleveland Guardians. Yes, painful to say sometimes. I guess the Detroit Tigers, Cleveland, $1.51 favorite in this game, the total in this game is seven, and at -125 shaded towards the over in this game, guys.

TC Martin:

All right. I guess I’ll start this one off, because I do like this game. The Tigers are saying Alex Faedo, today Feado, or Faedo, whatever you want to call it. I like to call him Fido, how’s that? He got called up three weeks ago. This guy is a career minor leaguer. He got signed four years ago, had Tommy John surgery back in 2020. This year, he was projected to be basically in AA or AAA, but because of all the injuries that the Tigers have had, he got brought up earlier in the year, got sent back down and got called back up again. Due to the Tigers having nine pitchers on the IL, Faedo is getting the start today. He’s got four career starts, like I said. Last start was actually against Cleveland, going back last week, where he got his first win.

TC Martin:

Congratulations, the kid got his first win. That’s nice. However, when you look at the start, this kid wasn’t very good at all. He went five and a third, gave up six hits, had only two strikeouts, had two walks, and here’s the glaring number in this game. Cleveland left 15 guys on base in this game. This guy stranded runners all over the place. Now, the pitcher in that game is the same pitcher today for Cleveland, and that’s Shane Bieber and Bieber was a hard luck loser in that game. He gave up only two earned runs, struck out 10, went seven strong innings, only walked two, so in my belief, I love these situations. We have the same pitching matchup. A veteran team has seen this guy before, and I think that Cleveland’s going to get it back and specifically, Bieber’s going to get it back here tonight.

TC Martin:

I’m going to give you some more stats with Bieber here. Last year, against Detroit, he went seven innings the last time he faced them, one hit, 12 strikeouts. Oh, by the way, guys, if you’re into karma, guess what the date of that game was? It was May 27th in Detroit, today, May 27th. Okay. You feeling me there? A couple starts before that, opening day, last year he faced the Tigers. It was a hard luck loser, again, had 13 strikeouts in that game and limited them to only a couple hits. If you go back to Bieber’s, the last six starts against the Tigers, he’s had at least 10 strikeouts in every game. I love Cleveland in this spot. I’m going to go with them. As we know, when we were talking about it before with the Tigers, they are either dead last in Major League Baseball or next to dead last in six offensive categories. To me, this screams Cleveland, great price here as well, too. Base Winner, take it away.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. It’s really, for me, getting behind Shane Bieber this year is difficult. I know that you really broke that down well, TC. I’m very impressed with all your use of stats in that particular breakdown, but I did notice that you used a lot of stats that were from last year or prior years, and I think if you look at the way-

TC Martin:

Well, this year and his two starts last year. Yeah.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. Well, and then, so the majority of that was from last year. My point is that when you’re talking about Shane Bieber from last year or prior years, I think it’s a different Shane Bieber a little bit, now there’s some confusing numbers. First of all, I’ll start with a Stuff+ for Shane Bieber, 28 percentile and to me, that’s concerning. He’s only got a 45% location number and his starts are somewhat mixed. Now, he’s had three 80 percentile plus stuff, or 80 percentile, sorry, I got to get this right, 80 percentile starts when you’re talking about the expected strikeout percentage hard hit per nine and expected walk percentage.

Mark Borchard:

Three out of his, and it looks like he’s had about eight starts this year, so exactly eight starts. Okay, but the other starts, the five have been below the average line, so he’s got a 46 percentile, a 26 percentile, a 15 percentile and a 21 percentile. If you look at some of his hard hit numbers, he’s been double digits, four of eight of his starts, so I think we’re getting not vintage Shane Bieber and maybe he’ll round that out. But I think as far as laying a price like this with him is, it’s something that I don’t want to do in this particular spot. I think, for me, it’s to wait and see for Shane Bieber and that’s why I’m passing on the game, but I will root you in, TC, would love to see you hit that play.

TC Martin:

Okay, Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I don’t have much on this game. I’m not real interested in it either. Guardians have really come back to earth. They had a nice week or two to start the season, but they’re just not very good. One thing about these two teams, pretty good bullpens. I don’t hate this pitching matchup. I was hoping to see an eight here, maybe lean on an under, but with seven, I’m just not interested. Detroit is a disaster at the plate, as you alluded to, and I don’t love Cleveland. I would lean Cleveland, but if you made me play this game, but I didn’t bet it, ultimately.

TC Martin:

This is one of those games, too I think it’s down to 150. You could play the game straight. I think you could play this game on the run line as well, too. I think either one is fine, actually. I thought this line might be a little bit more, so I was thinking, “Okay, maybe you have to go run line here,” but I think currently we’re talking about -150 for this game, so I think that’s a fair price. Again, if you do want to play the run line here, you’re going to be getting back +110, +115, so can advocate a play on either one of those.

Mark Borchard:

TC, are you playing the run line or the money line?

TC Martin:

I’m probably going to do both, but for this show, I think that I listed last night the run line because I expected the line to be a little bit higher, so [inaudible 00:13:17]

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I like that play better, because if you look at Bieber, he’s had those really good outings where he’s in the 80 percentile. He’s had four of those, so if he’s going to have a good outing and there’s a good chance that he can shut people down, so I almost like the run line play better than the money line play.

TC Martin:

Yeah. For this show, I’m going to say lock me in at the run line here at +115. Again, visiting team, I’m going to get all my nine at bats here. Again, I don’t expect a one-run game in this one, so I’m going to take a shot here. Probably later on today, I’ll back myself up and lay maybe the 150, but I think I’m going to do a Mark Borchard Base Winner parlay later today as well too.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah.

TC Martin:

I’ll hit that with my second game as well too, because I like that, so we’ll talk about that a little bit later. But for now, run line Cleveland right there, +115. So Bieber get the job done today against his ham and egger, Faedo. All right, next up, Milwaukee and St. Louis. Brandon Woodruff going today for the Brew Crew, Dakota Hudson for St. Louis. This one was a little crazy game. Last night, went down to the wire bottom of the ninth. I know Base Winner had this game and I was flipping my channels, because the Warriors was a blowout. I said, “Ah, let me root Base Winner on here with the Brew Crew,” and Hader came in there in the ninth inning, things got a little shaky, so I want to get Mark’s thoughts on this here in a minute, but today’s game has Milwaukee at $1.40 favorite on the road. Total in this one is seven -115 to the over. Base Winner, were you sweating some bullets last night?

Mark Borchard:

Hader is an interesting pitcher for me. It seems like when I back him, he’s always really wild and you’re like, “Gosh, this guy just doesn’t have it down,” and you feel like maybe he doesn’t blow many saves, but it seems like when I back him, he gets on the verge all the time, but when I’m playing against him, it’s like the guy is just locked down. It’s one of those guys where I guess it depends on where you are on that side of the bet, but I felt like if he could throw strikes, he’d be able to shut down that St. Louis and Yepez swung at a ball at the end to pop up, and I thought that helped him out.

Mark Borchard:

But gosh darn, man, that Hader, his numbers are just, so they’re almost grotesquely good. His run suppression numbers are in the ’40s, and you just never see that. I think maybe, oh, the closer for the White Sox, God, Hendricks, Liam Hendricks has that. Then other than that, I don’t even see a guy close to him in those closer ratings, but that’s why you bet baseball to have it come down to the wire and have the guy pop up and you cash your ticket. That was good, actually.

TC Martin:

There’s a classic at bat too with Pujols there at the end as well too. That was classic and Pujols fouled a bunch of pitches off, had some discipline laid off. A lot of those are breaking balls, but Hader, I’ve seen Hader a lot in the past and he can have some crazy blow up stuff, some wild pitches. You saw the pitch up by the chin, so he’s one of these guys [inaudible 00:16:26]

Mark Borchard:

You get a different feel watching Pujoles play for the Cardinals than you did when he played for the Dodgers and the Angels. It’s almost like it feels like watching a different player, because he was lost at times. You’d watch him and you’d be like, “Just don’t hit it, just strike out and don’t hit into a double play.” That was your thought as somebody who would be backing the Angels or the Dodgers, and now I’m concerned when he gets up to the plate and we’re betting against him.

TC Martin:

He sit in clean up last night as well too, so all right. On to this game though, Mark, you do have a play in this game, correct?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I love the first five in this game to, you see. I’ve got a price first five -274, so I think that -150 is super affordable. Brandon Woodruff, he’s has some mixed starts from my three metric chart, my three metric game log. But one thing that is really encouraging in this play is his Stuff+ is at 80% and his Location+ is at 91 in the 91st percentile. Then you compare that to Dakota Hudson, Dakot, Hudson is in the one percentile and Stuff+, and you think, “Sometimes these guys, well, their stuff’s not very good, but they can locate.”

Mark Borchard:

Well, he can’t locate either. He’s in the 36 percentile from a location standpoint, and I think that that justifies his, well there’s other numbers I put into this Base Winner run number, but he’s 143rd out of 150 pitchers in that run number. I’ve got Woodruff at seventh out of 150, and it comes down to a 2.72 runs to 1.34 for the first five innings. If you put that into the mixer, you get -274, so I think we’re getting great value with the crew here on the first five, and that’s how I’m going to play it, TC.

TC Martin:

All right. Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I don’t really understand backing Woodruff personally. You look at every team he’s faced this year, really, outside of St. Louis sucks. This guy’s faced a bunch of bad teams, Cincinnati and Washington and Pittsburgh, just a bunch of bad teams. Again, I don’t go into like the analytical stuff like Mark, but for the most part, he’s not been very good. I think it’s just a big price. I said before, earlier this week, I think Milwaukee recently played San Diego as well. I just don’t see a lot of pushback between either side. I think they’re both flips, but I’m not laying 140-ish with Brandon Woodruff. I’m not going to say Hudson’s any better, but I like St. Louis. I like their lineup, another one that I just don’t have much on.

TC Martin:

Yeah. You go back to that series against San Diego, Milwaukee didn’t score a ton of runs in that game. That life and death in that, the same thing last night. You’re getting a lot of these one run close, Brewers scoring three, four runs max lately, too. So when I look at this offense, I just don’t see any explosion right now with the Brewers, especially, without Yelich and it’s-

Mark Borchard:

TC, there’s-

TC Martin:

… it’s a weird, weird lineup.

Mark Borchard:

I can see why you feel that, because when you’re watching him, you’re like, “Well, how is this team going to score runs?” But if you’re looking at their barrel rate, their advanced metrics, their barrel rate’s fourth in baseball at 9%, hard hit per nine, 13th in baseball, so those numbers look good, and I think that they’re capable. I think that they’re capable, a lot more capable than this than the St. Louis offense. When you’re looking at their hard hit metrics, you look at a barrel rate of 5.8%, 25th in baseball, and you’re looking at a hard hit per nine, 9.3 hard hits per nine, that’s 23rd in baseball. So I think that if you get into the real numbers that I think are predictive moving forward, I’d like this Milwaukee offense better than you would think when you’re watching them play.

TC Martin:

Yeah. I like them when they’re completely healthy, I know that, but [inaudible 00:20:18]

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I just like watching what they’re doing now, which is I important. Again, Mark, and I don’t want to go off into a tangent. I can’t understand how this is fun at all, the predictive, like what might happen. As I’ve said before, Mark [inaudible 00:20:33]

Mark Borchard:

Well, no, no. [inaudible 00:20:33]

Jeff Nadu:

… might knock on my door, but she probably won’t. Like, I [inaudible 00:20:38]

Mark Borchard:

The metrics that I’m talking about, Jeff, they’re actual metrics that have occurred, so they’re past metrics that are good for predicting moving forward, so this is actually something that’s happened. You have 1100 events where the Brewers’ barrel percentage is 9%. I’m not making that up, that’s something that has occurred and barrel rate’s something that you really want to look at when you’re trying to assess the prowess of a team’s offense, in my opinion.

Jeff Nadu:

All right. Barrel rate-

TC Martin:

Barrel rate, there you go.

Jeff Nadu:

Sometimes I think you make this shit up, but I don’t know.

TC Martin:

I thought he was getting ready. It’s Memorial Day, he seemed ready for this [inaudible 00:21:20]

Mark Borchard:

Is that something they do with the rodeo?

TC Martin:

Well, no, I thought you were getting ready for the Borchard family picnic, the barrel rates and you’re going to barrel up, “Hey, we got the Borchard, you’re number one. Just line them up like a horse race over here.” [inaudible 00:21:34]

Mark Borchard:

I should make up a number and just be like, “Yeah. Yeah. Their mojo percentage is at 13 and that’s really not good,” just straight pan at one of these shows.

TC Martin:

Jeff, I could see Mark at the family picnic on Memorial Day, can’t you? Everyone’s, they’re barbecuing. They’re going to play some games and there’s Mark over there, shows up at the park with his laptop and he parks himself underneath the tree, and he’s trying to say, “What’s the barrel rate? I got this game coming up real quick,” and then [inaudible 00:22:06]

Mark Borchard:

[inaudible 00:22:06] It’s been done [inaudible 00:22:06]

TC Martin:

Over there saying [inaudible 00:22:07]

Mark Borchard:

It’s been done.

TC Martin:

“Get over here.”

Mark Borchard:

It’s been done. It’s been done.

Jeff Nadu:

People like that are the biggest losers. No offense. There’s nothing worse than going to a bar. Look, I’m all for reading. I have 12 books, right to the right of me. But like, you go to the bar and you see some chick or a guy at the bar they’re reading like, “Come on, man. You’re at a bar. What are you doing?”

Mark Borchard:

I don’t want to deal with this. I got a card to handicap for tomorrow. See you later. I’m going to [inaudible 00:22:34] over here [inaudible 00:22:34]

Jeff Nadu:

See ya.

Mark Borchard:

What are you doing? Handicapping there. You brought the laptop over there. Yeah.

TC Martin:

Well, hold on, Jeff. You said a chick or a girl at the bar, then you said a guy at the bar, but if you see a girl at the bar reading the book, aren’t you more apt to go up to her and say, “Hmm, that’s curious?” The guy you’re just going to leave alone. You’re saying, “That guy’s a loser,” but the chick that’s showing some intellect, right?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, but there’s a place for everything. You’re not at a library. You’re not at a science convention. You’re at a bar. What are you [inaudible 00:23:04]

TC Martin:

Maybe she’s reading the racing form-

Jeff Nadu:

Go home.

TC Martin:

You ever think about that, just remember [inaudible 00:23:07]

Mark Borchard:

No, I was thinking maybe-

TC Martin:

Go to the track.

Mark Borchard:

… she was reading a book about the mafia. That’d be like a match made in heaven. That’d be like the universe saying, “This is your girlfriend, dude.”

Jeff Nadu:

Listen, I’ve said this before. Any girl that bets, I don’t want because listen, I want to keep that away. I go to women for solace and getting away from that shit. I don’t want someone that knows how to do it as well. I’m good on that.

TC Martin:

There we go.

Jeff Nadu:

We’re at a bar. We’re not at a library.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Right now, Mark is in his office crunching numbers and we’re locking him in to the Milwaukee Brew Crew here today. All right, minus the barrel race, first five laying 150. All right. So I hope you and your barrel get there with the Brew Crew. All right?

Jeff Nadu:

Wow.

TC Martin:

Especially Bernie Brewer riding down the slide with the barrel there. There we go. [inaudible 00:23:59]

Mark Borchard:

Wow. You said that. that’s such a great thing.

TC Martin:

You like that?

Mark Borchard:

A barrel of beer, Brewer’s barrel rate-

TC Martin:

I’m telling you. I’ll even go out to what they do in the seventh inning stretch. I don’t know if you guys ever been, of course, to Miller Park, (singing). Then they go right into the polka where they get on top of the dugout and they start dancing, the beer barrel polka, a staple at Miller Park.

Mark Borchard:

Wow. Apropos, barrel rate and barrel of beer.

TC Martin:

There you go. Toronto, and the Angels, let’s go look at this one here. Alex Manoah going for Toronto. Chase Silseth for the Angels, the Blue Jays $1.16 favorite of this one. Total is eight, slightly shaded towards the under little nighttime baseball in Anaheim. Tonight, we saw Ohtani get ripped last night, Springer a little off the game with a homer for Toronto. These Blue Jay bats seem to be back. I know Jeff has always been anti-Toronto, but I think he’s starting to see these bats now come alive for the Blue Jays, and here we go, guys. I talked it about yesterday, these Angels, they’re a streaky team, but sliding backwards. Jeff, handicap this game for us.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. Toronto’s won five straight against the Angels, seemed to really figure it out offensively. That middle of the lineup with Bichett and Guerrero and all those guys, terrific. They’re just putting the barrel to the ball right now. When we look at Silseth, I don’t really know what to expect out of this guy. Two appearances this year against Oakland. We all know Oakland’s one of the worst offenses in baseball. He pitched one really good outing in six innings, didn’t give up a run, but then the other one, four and a third, gave up three earned runs, was a little bit more normality with him. I don’t really know what to expect from him.

Jeff Nadu:

I’d have to imagine this is a much tougher outing. Look, I’m getting Manoah at a really good price. I’m always going to be on Manoah here. I’ve talked before I think Manoah’s one of those really good young pitchers in baseball. He’s got a really good opportunity this year to be one of those Cy Young type of guys. He’s been awesome all season, hasn’t allowed more than two runs in any outing. Neither bullpen’s great, but I’ll gladly take the pitching advantage here with the fact that Toronto’s offense is starting to get going a little bit and they’ve just had a lot of success over the years against the Angels. I like Toronto here. I think they’d bounce back and keep the good mojo going with their guy Manoah, who’s been terrific.

TC Martin:

I’ll tell you one thing you can expect, Jeff, from Silseth, you’re going to get a quick game. This guy is the fastest worker in Major League Baseball. So if you have a date tonight and you want to watch your game a little bit, plan for getting out of there in about two-and-a-half hours, because Silseth, he can go, boom, boom, boom. He loves to work quickly. It’s really a joy to watch here. We’ll see how long he hangs around. Like I said, first time against the A’s, pretty good. Last outing, okay, the guy’s still a youngster. But what I do like, man, this guy has no nonsense. He’ll go out there and work quick and [inaudible 00:27:07].

Jeff Nadu:

Something interesting to really point out, and that’s a good point. I don’t watch these games a lot of the time, but if you do, there you go. You can get out of there quick. I like a quick worker in baseball, but that being said, one of the interesting, really random metrics about the bullpen for the Angels, they’ve allowed 23 home runs. That’s a lot of home runs. That’s top four worst in baseball. The only worst have been the Chicago Cubs, Minnesota and Tampa. That’s a lot of home runs that go up in a bullpen. For a team in Toronto. That always seems to be very, very good at hitting that long ball, that’s concerning as well. They’re 10th in the major leagues and home runs per game, so I like Toronto here. I don’t love backing them night after night, but I think it’s a good little spot to grab my guy, Manoah, at a good spot.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Base Winner, what do you got?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. For me, it’s a stay away game. If I had to play it, I would go with Toronto. It’s hard to argue against Manoah. Manoah’s 76% Stuff+, but if you compare that to Chase Silseth’s Stuff, I can’t say that, Chase Sileth, right?

TC Martin:

Yeah.

Mark Borchard:

That’s like she sells seashells by the seashore. I can’t say that either.

TC Martin:

That was horrible.

Mark Borchard:

But anyway, so other than me not being able to pronounce Silseth, I can tell you that he’s got a pretty good 73 percentile Stuff+. For me, backing the Toronto bullpen is just no fun. They’re 23rd in baseball by my advanced metrics. Actually, I lied a little bit, at 26th in baseball when you look at swinging strike percentage hard hit per nine, an expected walk rate, and then you got the Angels at 12. So I think if I played it, which I’m not going to do, but if I did, I’d play at first five innings. Again, I’m going to root for Jeff’s play to come in and hope Manoah is good, but for me, it’s a stay away.

TC Martin:

Okay. Let’s lock Jeff in. He’s going to take a shot with the Blue Jays coming off, try to go for back to back victories against the Angels. I got it last night, Maverick Handley tonight, Toronto, Lane, 116 Blue Jays over the Angels. Next up, the lily Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road at San Diego, Petco {ark. It’s Quintana against Manaea in this one. San Diego, a big favorite here, -210, +180. If the Pirates under over in this game is seven shaded towards the over in this one, a couple anemic offenses, guys. I know that San Diego is a big favorite in this game. Base Winner, you like this Padre team tonight, huh?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. There is different ways that I went to try to tackle this game, because I definitely know enough that I want to be against José Quintana. I decided to bet it first five and I’ve got to lay a half run on it, but it’s only going to cost me -125, but the pricing that I have on it, and this is based on just first five ending score, I’ve got it at -286 on the full money line. So it gives you value on the derivatives as well. I’ve got 2.71 for the Padres to 1.33 runs for the Pirates. The one thing that’s concerning a little bit about Manaea is his Stuff+ is in the 32nd percentile, but if you look at Quintana, he’s in the second percentile.

Mark Borchard:

Then, I’m going to go and look at the K-BB number. Quintana’s really struggled with his control based on this. It’s a 9.7% walk rate against a 20.4% strikeout rate. Compare that to Manoah, and this is over the last 365 days, so Quintana’s 163rd out of 267 pitchers. But compare that with Manaea, who’s got a 26.9% strikeout rate and just a 6.4% walk rate, that places him 27th out of those 267 pitchers. Now, I think we just get a huge pitching mismatch here. I’m going to play the Padres, going to play it, lay that half run and -125 on the first five.

TC Martin:

All right, Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Another one I don’t have much interest in. As far as it’s funny with Mark, did you say you liked Oakland, Mark?

Mark Borchard:

I love Oakland. They’re my favorite team. No, I don’t like Oakland.

Jeff Nadu:

Okay. Yeah. Okay. That’s what I thought I heard. You cut out for a second on my end, but I don’t have much on this one. Two bad teams, I’m always told don’t bet on bad teams. I don’t know what I’m going to expect out of Jon Gray, but it’s funny because he bet Jon Gray, Jon Gray on the surface sucks, but for whatever reason, Mark says he’s good, so we’ll back it. Mark, can you explain how a guy with over five ERA and a couple of starts is backable?

Mark Borchard:

I think you’re talking about the wrong game, dude. I’m talking about the Padres and the Pirates.

Jeff Nadu:

I thought he was talking about Oakland. I could have sworn I heard Sean Manaea. I keep thinking he’s on Oakland. My fault, my bad, wrong game.

TC Martin:

Well, Manaea is. Now he’s with the Padres.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, no. I know. I got the wrong guy. I keep thinking he’s on Oakland, my fault. Forget what I said. Never mind.

TC Martin:

All right. Anyway, here’s my question with you, Base Winner, is, like I said, San Diego, that offense, especially without Tatís, Jr. They’re very, very shaky, and I get the due theory here. It’s like San Diego’s about ready to bust out, especially against the Pirates here. Laying 210, a little bit risky. I guess this is more about the feebleness of the way I feel about Cleveland against Detroit here tonight, the feebleness against the Pirates, right?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. It’s tough. That’s one of the reasons I decided not to play the traditional money line and to lay that half run and just save, because you could get in a situation where the Padres offense doesn’t score. But I think from a long-term standpoint, I have them, while not great, but they’re 19th out of 30 teams and the Pirates are dead last. For me, it’s not really an endorsement of the Padre’s offense, it’s more of an endorsement of Manaea and a lack of something that looks good with Quintana, because I’ll play against Quintana all day long really, or in this case, all night long, right?

TC Martin:

Weren’t you contemplating going with a parley with this game?

Mark Borchard:

I did. What happened is the Dodgers changed their pitcher, so there’s no value on that Dodgers game.

TC Martin:

Right, exactly. Okay. Lock Base Winner in. He’s going to go with the Padres in this game against Pittsburgh. First five got to win, well, got to be ahead at the end of five, laying $1.25 for that, so good luck for the Base Winner on the Padres at home here tonight. All right. Finally, our late night game tonight is the Houston Astros and the Seattle Mariners. Verlander back to the hill for Houston. Flexen going for Seattle. Houston, a $2 favor and this one on the road and the total in this game is seven shaded toward the over -125. Jeff, thoughts on Astros Mariners?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, Flexen sucks. This guy, just not interested. I think we were a little interested in him towards the beginning of the year, maybe Mark and I, but then we just I think quickly realized he just doesn’t have very good luck and he ultimately just not very good. Talking about the Astros every day just is monotonous. I’m generally going to be on them, especially with Verlander. I’ll tell you what, I’m going to join you here. I’m going to take Houston as well. We’re going to get nine F bats here with that group. They just have such an elite bullpen. They don’t give many leads up. Their offense is healthy and gotten going. All of a sudden, Houston’s 29 and 16. I remember when they were 500 and struggling a little bit. They really came on recently, and I hate Seattle, so I’ll gladly go against them. These teams are starting to round into form and with Verlander, I’m always on him. I’m going to join you, TC, here. I think you’re going to take Houston as well in a run line.

TC Martin:

Yeah, Base Winner?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. For me, if I had to play it, I’d play Seattle. I think that –

Jeff Nadu:

Of course.

Mark Borchard:

No. There’s some good things about Verlander and I want to be fair to him, because I think that there’s a phrase that Vince Scully used to use a lot and he said, “Good is not good when better is expected.” I think that there’s good numbers for Verlander, but I think that for me, at least, I expect better from him and I’ll start off with the good. First of all, his K-BB, really good, right there with Manaea, and 24 out of 267 pitchers. But if you look at his Stuff+, and again, this is a good number, in the 62 percentile from a Stuff+ number. But there was one stat that really was concerning to me.

Mark Borchard:

If you look at his hard hit percentage, he’s 76th in baseball in hard hit percentage, right between Marco Gonzalez and Adrian Houser and Drew Smyly. I thought, “God, that’s not really Justin Verlander-esque.” Then I look into his three metric numbers and I’m looking at a 66 percentile, his average and his median is 62 percentile. So I’m thinking, good is not good when better is expected, and so that’s what I think about Verlander. It’s really having said that, it’s hard for me to get excited about Chris Flexen who’s got an eight percentile Stuff+ [inaudible 00:37:18]

Jeff Nadu:

But hey, take Seattle.

Mark Borchard:

Well, but Jeff, listen, you have to look at the whole collection of numbers.

Jeff Nadu:

Mark, you’re going against what you were saying at beginning of the show about overthinking things like [inaudible 00:37:30].

Mark Borchard:

No, no, no. I said I always overthink things.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah.

Mark Borchard:

I always do. That’s how I handicap, but so you’re looking at a collection of the numbers. You’re you’re putting bullpen in, you’re putting offense in, I have the offenses really close. The bullpen, I have pretty close. If you look at the advanced numbers for Seattle, they’re pretty impressive, 13.7 swinging strike percentage, hard hit per nine. Right there with Houston at nine, 9.4, they’re literally neck and neck. They both have a 9.4 hard hit per nine, and then expected walk percentage, Seattle’s better with a 7% expected walk percentage and an 8.4 expected walk percentage for Houston. By no means am I saying that Justin Verlander is an awful pitcher. He’s good, but better is expected. So for me, it’s a no play. If I had to play it, I’d play Seattle, but I just can’t get behind Chris Flexen, and that’s how I’m approaching this game.

TC Martin:

Okay, guys. I’m going to simplify this for everybody out there. This is all about the pitching.

Jeff Nadu:

Right.

TC Martin:

Justin Verlander, six and one. Chris Flexen, one in six, Justin Verlander, ERA, 1.22, Chris Flexen, five. Justin Verlander has not given up a run in his last three starts that encompasses the last 19 innings. He’s 2-0 against Seattle this year. He’s 3-0, if you include his only start last year when he got hurt, he owns Seattle. Flexen, 14 earned runs in his last three starts, give him a five spot, a three spot, a six spot versus Houston. He’s never beaten Houston, 0-2. You go back to last year, 0-5. Well, actually he’s responsible for four of those losses, but the Seattle Mariners have not beaten the Houston Astros in the last five starts going back to two years ago. Houston swept Seattle three weeks ago. Houston, advantage pitching; Houston advantage at the plate; Houston advantage fielding. Let me just say this, Mark Borchard just compared Justin Verlander to Sean Manaea. Are you kidding me? This is a Cy Young Award winner we’re talking about. I’m going to say this [inaudible 00:39:46].

Jeff Nadu:

The numbers don’t lie, man.

TC Martin:

If you are not betting [inaudible 00:39:48] the Houston Astros [inaudible 00:39:49]

Mark Borchard:

The numbers don’t lie, though [inaudible 00:39:51]

TC Martin:

… in this. Let me say this. Anyone who’s listening or watching, if you are not betting the Houston Astros in this particular game, don’t bet on baseball. [inaudible 00:40:02] This is all right in front of you. This is the game, Houston over Seattle, easily in this game [inaudible 00:40:11]

Mark Borchard:

What would you say their percentage of winning the game is, TC?

TC Martin:

Seattle has won seven games this month. They’re 7-21.

Mark Borchard:

What would you say the percentage that Houston’s going to win this game? If they played this game 100 times, how many times would they win the game?

TC Martin:

I just know tonight with the day off with the best pitcher in baseball, arguably, going [inaudible 00:40:31]

Mark Borchard:

So you would price it at -900, then Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Listen, Mark. Let me just-

Mark Borchard:

No, no. I asked. That’s why I asked the percentages.

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t know. I’m making things up. I don’t know. Listen, Mark, sometimes what you do is like, I notice you find these random stats that bang on your argument, you’ll find something about Michael Jordan and say, “Well, in this metric, he was the same as Judd Buechler,” and no, they’re just elite. Justin Verlander is an elite pitcher. Nine times out of 10, you’re going to get an elite outing. Throw in the fact that all the stats you mentioned, TC, on point, throw in this as well. He’s pitched 33 innings on the road. This season, has an ERA of five, has allowed two earn runs over 33 innings on the road, opponents shooting 124 against him, and he has a whip of 0.64.

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t give anything about his Stuff+ or any of that. That’s what I need to know. Listen, Mark, when we talk, when we have these conversations, I’m not banging on the way you handicap. I just don’t understand it to myself, but that’s the good thing about this show, because it provides an interesting thing. I also want to ask you, there was a comment by Chris Cappaken in the chat that I was curious about Mark’s opinion with the hard hit stuff that he mentioned. Maybe you could read that, TC. I think that’s an interesting point.

TC Martin:

Okay, and-

Jeff Nadu:

Interesting about hard hit rate or something.

TC Martin:

I don’t think I’m seeing that one, Jeff, but oh, okay. Oh, yeah. Yeah. “Why is hard hit so bad when the pitcher is winning?” That means that they’re hitting it hard, but the defense is making plays. I will say that, especially with the Houston Astros, they’re number one in defense.

Mark Borchard:

No, it’s true, and they are [inaudible 00:42:16]

TC Martin:

Good question, Chris. Thanks, Jeff [inaudible 00:42:17].

Mark Borchard:

We talked about their defensive runs saved, and how they’re chasing down a lot of fly balls, but at some point, those fly balls are going to leave the yard, and I think that that’s going to happen. It’s an interesting thing that you brought that up, because I think that’s going to happen as these humidors start drying balls out, they get a little bit bouncier. If you hit enough hard hit fly balls, they’re going to leave the yard. I think that we’re going to see that home run rate, particularly with the Astros, go up as the later months come around, because the ball’s going to get a little bouncier in the parks that have the humidor. I can fully admit that I’m not an anti Houston guy by any means. In fact, I think that there’s some metrics that are pretty amazing from the Astros including that defensive run save metric. But I think that if you give up hard hit balls in the air, that’s not a good thing that all the time.

TC Martin:

That goes with the pitcher, Mark, so Verlander’s a ground ball pitcher, so he’s not a fly ball guy. Now, Garcia and Odorizzi, they’re fly ball guys, so they’re a little bit scary, so I get you with that. But here’s all I’m saying about this game, Seattle could win this game. Sure, anything could happen in baseball, but I’m just saying from a betting standpoint, there is no way that I can see anyone wanting to bet on Seattle-

Mark Borchard:

Well, I would-

TC Martin:

… but if you’re going and bet on this game, it has to be the Astros, because everything points to Houston in every facet of this game. So I’m going to bet the Astros and I’m going to bet the run line and I’m going to lay 120 here, because I think they’re going to win by more than one run. Will I be upset if they win a one-run game? Sure. But you know what? I might lay the $2 as well too, to back myself up. I do like a parlay here, I’m going to do go the Base Winner parlay with Cleveland and Houston here as well too, because I could play this game at -150 for Cleveland and in Houston at $2, that’ll give me +150, so I’m going to be involved in that as well today too.

TC Martin:

But I’m just saying, if you’re not betting the Houston Astros today, don’t bet on baseball, because this is the game today that makes all the sense in the world. Not one iota, one thing points to betting the Mariners. Lay off it if you want. But with Justin Verlander of the Astros, the offense against this Seattle team that’s going backwards, against Flexen, it’s Houston.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, but I have to ask you again, TC, what would you make at price?

TC Martin:

I don’t look at it like that, Mark. I look at it like, okay, I’m not going to say like boxing I’ll do that. I’ll say, “Hey, Canelo Álvarez is only 450. He should be -800, okay, boxing, mano a manao, a little different situation here. This situation, Houston should be a $2 favorite. That’s where they’re at. I’m not going to say, “Well, I have them at -400,” because I don’t think anybody should be a -3 or $4 favorite of baseball, because again, we’re handicapping pitchers, starting pitchers and the line is based on starting pitchers. Something happens to that pitcher, or we get a 1-1, 2-2 game into the eighth or ninth, then it’s into bullpens, and that -200 is out the window. I don’t say, “This is what it should be,” I’m just saying, “This is what it is. They’re giving me this line. I don’t have a choice. My choice is to lay the 200 or play the run line, I’m going to play the run line.”

Mark Borchard:

All right, but fair enough.

TC Martin:

All right.

Mark Borchard:

We can agree to disagree. I think that there’s a-

TC Martin:

What’s there disagree about? I’m playing the Astros, it doesn’t matter what I think [inaudible 00:45:52]

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, no, no, no. I’m saying [inaudible 00:45:54] that I don’t think that the Astros at this price is a good play and these are my reasons why.

TC Martin:

Okay.

Mark Borchard:

You’re saying that you should play it so that we are disagreeing on it, so it doesn’t make you a bad person, it’s just, I don’t think [inaudible 00:46:08]

Jeff Nadu:

Okay, just admit you’re betting it because he’s trying to make the point that it can’t lose. You’re just hoping that as a gambler [inaudible 00:46:15]

Mark Borchard:

No, no, no, no. It comes down to pricing for me. It’s all meticulously down. I’ve spent my whole adult life [inaudible 00:46:21].

Jeff Nadu:

It can’t be priced [inaudible 00:46:24] any lower. Look at the [inaudible 00:46:25]

Mark Borchard:

[inaudible 00:46:28] The book maker can make it -1000, [inaudible 00:46:31] the book maker can price it however the hell he wants to price it, but he’s not making it anyone [inaudible 00:46:37] he’s not making, [inaudible 00:46:37] so if you’re saying it’s -1000, hey, that’s your prerogative. You can do it, dude. I’m not saying [inaudible 00:46:42]

TC Martin:

Who is making it -1000? What are you talking about? When have you ever seen [inaudible 00:46:45]

Mark Borchard:

You’re talking about it [inaudible 00:46:46] like it can’t lose. You’re like, “It can’t lose. You’re giving me this price. Go back. That’s what you said.”

Jeff Nadu:

Again, with anything, Mark, I think you’re getting a bargain on Atlanta run line here to be fair. [inaudible 00:46:58]

Mark Borchard:

That’s why we have the show and that’s why they play the game.

TC Martin:

Things happen in baseball. I could lose, absolutely, I could. But I’m not saying go bet. I’m not a tout like that, saying “Go bet, go bet.” I’m just saying if you’re going to bet baseball, this is the game today. That makes all of the sense for all the metrics, if you want to say-

Mark Borchard:

It doesn’t.

TC Martin:

… stats or whatever-

Mark Borchard:

It doesn’t-

TC Martin:

… the ability with both teams, where they’re at now, that’s all I’m saying. I’m having some fun here, Mark, having some fun.

Mark Borchard:

That’s fine. That’s fine. All I’m saying is that [inaudible 00:47:34] based on my numbers that I’ve spent, half of my [inaudible 00:47:36] adult life creating, [inaudible 00:47:37] it’s not a valuable play.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. But again, Mark, the all due respect your numbers on Verlander suck. I’m just being honest-

Mark Borchard:

They’re not my numbers, though. They’re numbers that he’s created, a hard hit percentage. That’s not hard-

Jeff Nadu:

This is my only thing [inaudible 00:47:50].

Mark Borchard:

I’m not saying his hard hit percentage is some made up number that [inaudible 00:47:53] I made in fantasy land. This has actually occurred in reality. [inaudible 00:47:57]

TC Martin:

He’s going to win two awards come September and October-

Mark Borchard:

Oh, my God.

TC Martin:

You’re making [inaudible 00:48:00].

Mark Borchard:

No, I’m not making them up, they exist. These numbers exist. They’re not that great.

Jeff Nadu:

Okay.

Mark Borchard:

Good is not good, when better’s expected.

TC Martin:

Jeff, no earned runs in his last three starts, [inaudible 00:48:12]

Jeff Nadu:

Someone please clip this and [inaudible 00:48:15] Someone please clip and put out on Twitter what mark just alluded to that, Justin Verlander’s number aren’t that great.

Mark Borchard:

They’re not. [inaudible 00:48:22] There’s 20 pitchers that have [inaudible 00:48:24] better. There’s 20 pitchers in baseball that have better numbers than Justin Verlander.

Jeff Nadu:

But I guarantee, Mark, if [inaudible 00:48:28] but again, if I asked you about one game and a one-off who you taking, it’s Justin Verlander. Give me a break.

Mark Borchard:

Ugh. I don’t know. I don’t know about that. I don’t think it would be.

Jeff Nadu:

I’ll tell you what, guys [inaudible 00:48:41]

TC Martin:

They’d take Verlander. Let’s wrap this thing up.

Mark Borchard:

I’d take McClanahan [inaudible 00:48:45] I’d take McClanahan over Verlander right now. Who would you take? I would take McClanahan over Verlander right now. In fact, I think if they were pitching again [inaudible 00:48:55]

Jeff Nadu:

Let’s move on and end this. Can we end this? This is [inaudible 00:48:57]

TC Martin:

Yeah. All right. It’s the whole package here, the offense, the defense, the fielding, everything. Okay, so there we go. Q&A, let’s go to Chris. Chris has a question. Mark, how do you know about the humidor factor yesterday in Chicago? What do you know about that?

Mark Borchard:

What do I know about that? It dried that ball out that Trevor Story hit for a home run. I talked about it on this show, and hey, you listened to Castiglione call that shot. He is like, “Oh, it’s a fly ball, carrying out to you. Oh, it’s good. It’s gone. It’s gone,” and you know why? Because that the dew point was high yesterday. The humidity was high and the humidor took moisture out of that ball that Trevor Story hit. Man, it felt good when it went out of the park for a home run, because that put it over the four-and-a- half. I thought, “Damn, that was great. That was really good.” But I think to just simplify it, if you’re looking at a high humidity day, 70% or greater, high dew point 56% or greater, and you like the game from an over perspective, I think that’s good opportunity to look for an over. That’s to just simplify it.

TC Martin:

I think we need a green screen behind Mark, and one of those pointers with the map of the United States, “And the high pressure system is coming in here, there [inaudible 00:50:11]

Mark Borchard:

No, no, no. TC, in all [inaudible 00:50:13] seriousness, I wanted to break it down, so it’s not that hard. So on my site, basewinner.com, you got a weather page. If the humidity is over 70%, if the dew point’s over 58%, that’s going to help the ball get bouncier, just like last night on Trevor Story’s home run.

TC Martin:

All right. Dodgers, Diamondbacks, any thought? We know that Dave Roberts was playing games again, wasn’t sure he was going to go with Tony Gosselin, or if he is going with Pea Pod or whoever the guy’s name is, is going with him, I guess. All we know this with the Diamondbacks, they’ve what lost 17 of their last, what, 22 games against the Dodgers? I know that, but it is hard to back either one of these pitchers for the Dodgers today, in my opinion.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. You’re going to get [inaudible 00:50:52]

TC Martin:

The offense is outstanding, don’t get me wrong.

Jeff Nadu:

You’re going to get a lot of bullpen time out of Arizona here. I don’t think we need to go into these day after day. Dodgers run one. It’s probably the play to make-

TC Martin:

Your boy, Bumgarner’s going today, though, Jeff.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, that being said, and I’m not playing this today, I don’t have much on Papillion-

Mark Borchard:

Have you given up on Bumgarner?

Jeff Nadu:

No, as usual, his numbers have been terrific, so I don’t really-

Mark Borchard:

Jesus Christ. Oh, my gosh. Bumgarner’s numbers are terrific. Oh, wow. Woo. [inaudible 00:51:28]

Jeff Nadu:

They are-

TC Martin:

I don’t think we have enough time to get into that debate.

Mark Borchard:

Let’s stop. Let’s stop, because it’s running long. It’s running long.

Jeff Nadu:

No, but Mark, we are running long, but [inaudible 00:51:36]

Mark Borchard:

I can go deep into Bumgarner’s numbers. I’m not going to do it, because we’re at 53, but they’re not good, so-

Jeff Nadu:

Okay. But to me, well, he has a whip of just over one ERA solid.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I would look at K-BB percentage, which is awful. I would look at swinging strike percentage, which isn’t good. I’d look at hard per nine. I can tell you right now without even looking at it [inaudible 00:51:55]

Jeff Nadu:

But, again-

Mark Borchard:

… they’re terrible.

Jeff Nadu:

But Mark, you’re also someone that doesn’t like Verlander’s numbers, so can we really trust what your numbers are telling us? That’s-

Mark Borchard:

Well, first of all, I didn’t say that Verlander’s numbers are awful, I’m just saying they’re not as good as some other pitchers, so-

Jeff Nadu:

But you can agree that he’s one of the better [inaudible 00:52:12]

Mark Borchard:

How many times did I say, good is not good, so they’re good, when better is expected. I’m not saying that Verlander is awful numbers, I’m just saying that I expect better from Verlander.

TC Martin:

If you’re going to do that next time, please use Vince Scully’s voice when you do it. Okay?

Mark Borchard:

I can’t do it-

TC Martin:

It’d be much more entertaining.

Mark Borchard:

Nobody can do Vince Scully except for Vince Scully.

TC Martin:

All right. Let’s go to the Yankees and the Rays game today. Dirty Deeds has a question with that one. Anybody?

Mark Borchard:

What’s the question? Who is he going to bet?

TC Martin:

Yankee’s raise, he wants to know, any action [inaudible 00:52:43]

Mark Borchard:

I’ve got him at a -113, so I guess it depends on what price you’re getting. I guess thinking you can get plus odds with a raise, it’s a good play. Both pitchers I have at 53 percentile Stuff+, and I think the way the numbers shake out is we get an advantage for my long-term number on the starter for Tampa Bay. The Yankees have an advantage in hitting, but if you put it all in the mixer, it’s a -113 price that I have for the raise. If you can get better than that, I think play the raise.

TC Martin:

Last question from Kyle. Red Sox, Baltimore, quick thoughts you guys, anything?

Mark Borchard:

Oh, gosh, yeah. Bet the over in this game. This is a humidor classic. Well, why do they need to take moisture out of the ball in Boston, right? So it’s a humid day in Boston, dew point’s high and they’re making the ball bounce here in the second most offensive park in baseball. Why does MLB need to do this? So to me, just based on that alone, I’m going to look at the over really strong leaning on it.

TC Martin:

The number’s 10 in the scheme, because of that-

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, yeah, yeah-

TC Martin:

It had to do with Whitlock and Bradish, too, probably.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I should really take that back, because the pitchers, I have rated pretty good, but why are we making the ball livelier in Boston? Why? Why do it?

TC Martin:

All right, guys. Let’s take a look at our best bets here as we exit here for the weekend. All right, Jeff’s got Toronto. We’re banking on Toronto, getting it done again tonight in Anaheim against Angels laying 116, based on [inaudible 00:54:19]

Jeff Nadu:

I’m going to add Houston as well.

TC Martin:

I’m sorry. Jeff’s got Houston as well, along with myself. The Astros we’re laying a run- and-a-half here tonight. I’m taking Cleveland as well, too, both regular and the run line with both of those games. The Base Winner is taking the San Diego Padres in the first five, so Mark’s got a couple first five plays. He’s got the Brew Crew laying a buck 50, it’s Padres laying $1.25 in the first five. Those are our best bets. All right. I appreciate everyone for joining us here today. I appreciate the questions as well, too. I hope everyone has a fantastic weekend. I hope you guys have a good weekend too, man. I’m looking forward to relaxing a little bit, watching a lot of baseball, eating some good food, because that’s what we do here. Remember to like and subscribe to the show here at The MLB Show as well as BetUS TV, presented, of course, by BetUS, America’s favorite sportsbook. Also, follow us on Twitter as well @BetUSTV. All right, guys. Have a good weekend. We’ll reconvene next week for the Base Winner, for Jeff, TC Martin saying so long. Enjoy the games.