Basewinner (Mark):
… Mets, and I agree with Jeff. Sometimes you get this team that just… Magic happens. You can’t quantify magic. Maybe it exists a little bit. But the one thing that’s interesting about the Mets is that their weighted runs create a plus third in baseball so that’s great, but their hard hit metrics are right down about 27th, 28th, so that kept me off that game particularly. I don’t see how you play the Phillies. I don’t see how this group can… It looked like they were playing… This is one of the things that went into my handicap yesterday before the game started. It looked like the previous game against Texas, that they were playing scared. It’s like, dude, you guys are hitting against Martin Perez. You’ve got Wheeler on the mound… I didn’t get that feeling watching the game. I know that sounds weird from an analytical handicapper, but I didn’t even get that feeling like they were out to kill this guy. It’s like, hey, come on. You got to capitalize on this stuff.
Jeff Nadu:
The problem this team has, as well, is 48% of their payroll is tied up in four or five different players. Their bullpen has no depth, their bullpen has no talent. This has been, again, a problem for years with this team. They had one of the worst bullpens in the league last year. They’re constantly giving up two, three run leads in the ninth inning. If you’re going to overpay… I’m not saying they’re overpaying. Bryce Harper’s a great player, Realmuto’s a great player, but at the end of the day you can’t throw out $700,000 salary pitchers and expect for that to be good enough. This has been a problem, it’s been an ongoing issue, and until the upper management contends…
Jeff Nadu:
Certain teams in this town do the same stuff. They skimp on some of the small things, and at the end of the day… All week they’re talking about how the Eagles are going to be a Super Bowl contending team but you look at some of the small things they have. They’re not good at it. Philly’s the same way with the bullpen. It’s just not good enough and it’s going to lose you games and it has lost them games. I don’t know what they’re doing. They need to whip it up quick.
TC Martin:
Yeah, and the Sixers are on the verge of possibly getting swept as well too, right?
Jeff Nadu:
Exactly.
TC Martin:
All right guys, let’s take a look on the record board here, recap yesterday’s games on the board. Jeff had a winner yesterday with the Colorado team total with the over, so congrats there my man, that was good. Basewinner goes one and one yesterday. Again, he was a beneficiary of playing a first five inning game with the Phillies. Those bats exploded right from the get-go so Basewinner already was waiting in line to cash a ticket while I had to sweat out that horrendous loss and blowing a seven run lead. Basewinner goes one and one. I go one and one yesterday and the Astros got the job done again yesterday against the Tigers. There is the MLB betting board there, 25 and 17 for myself. Jeff’s there at 10 and 15. Basewinner at 22 and 20.
TC Martin:
Today we’ve had a couple postponements and I know that a lot of us had action on the games that were postponed. The Cubs and Dodgers game postponed due to rain at Wrigley Field, and then the Yankees game also not going to be played today. That game is postponed. I was looking forward to that pitching matchup today with the Yankees as Garrett Cole was on the hill in this game today against Otto for Texas. Those games are off the board, so we have kind of a short card that we’re going to hit on today. We’re going to take a look at about three games that we like, and if there’s any other questions that we have on our Q&A chat, feel free to hit us in the chat room with any questions about any games on the board here today.
TC Martin:
Let’s get it cracking here guys, and let’s start with the Toronto Blue Jays and the Cleveland Guardians. This game is in Cleveland. We talk about weather today. The weather not good in Cleveland last night. Windy, cold, in the 30s. Weather does not look much better today so keep an eye on this game. This game could get postponed as well, too. If it does get played then the weather is going to be a factor. Both the teams got their aces going today. We’ll get into that. The Blue Jays are a $1.38 favorite. If you like Cleveland, +1.28. The total in this game, a low one at six and a half -110 each way. Both have their ACEs going like I said. So you’ve got Kevin Gausman going against Shane Beaver today. Both these guys have great stuff. They’ve got low ERAs. Both teams have solid offenses. I do like both of their offensive. Yeah. So Basewinner, let’s, let’s start with you.
Basewinner (Mark):
Yeah. This is an interesting game for me, because for years I’ve been high on Bieber. Betting on Shane Bieber for me has been very successful over the last three years so it’s kind of a weird line for me when I look at the Basewinner line and I see Toronto -155. But it does make sense. I’m going to play Toronto here. Gausman my the number one pitcher in my rankings, and I know this is controversial to many baseball hipsters. But if you look at what he’s done this year, it’s actually very remarkable that he’s had five starts, and the last four starts have all been in the 90+ percentile by my three metric rating. So I really like that.
Basewinner (Mark):
Bieber is kind of an interesting case. He’s never had 90 percentile stuff like Kevin Gausman does, but last year his stuff was 57 percentile by the Stuff+ metrics and now it’s 30%, so a little concerning there. I still have him rated pretty good in my Basewinner ratings: he’s 33rd out of 150 pitchers. I think offensively, we have a big edge with the Blue Jays. I’ve got them at 114, weighted runs create a plus projection. I’m not that high on the Guardians. I have them a little bit below average at 99. So you put that in the mixer, I’ve got -155.
Basewinner (Mark):
Some concerns about this Toronto bullpen. And if you look all the way down their depth chart, it is a bit concerning, but I’m going to bank that they’re going to pitch Gausman. Oh, I think he’s gone average of seven innings in his last three games, which is exciting. I like Jordan Romano. I have him with a 70 base winner number. I’ve got Mayza with a 76. If you look at how those guys have pitched so far, this season they’ve suppressed, runs Jordan Romano, really good base winner number this season with a 55 run suppression number. The one thing that concerns me and I hope we don’t get this guy coming out of the bullpen is Yimi Garcia, but it’s not Yimi Garcia, it’s Jimmy Garcia spelled with a Y. He already gets a strike against him because he doesn’t pronounce his name the way he spells it. But if you look at his metrics year to date, he’s been 17% worse than average. And I just hope we don’t get him in there. Long term projections, I’m not super down on him, but I have him right around league average.
Basewinner (Mark):
A little bit of a role of the dice, but I think that if we get Romano, Mayza, and Cimber on the back end of that game, I think we’ll be okay. That’s why I decided to play it full game.
TC Martin:
Yeah. That’s exactly the way Toronto wants to draw it up. Gausman at least seven, go to Mayza, and then Romano to close it out. They’re pretty solid with that. Jeff, thoughts on this game?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, I hate the Blue Jays. No interest in backing them. I don’t know why anyone would back this group right now. They’ve scored three or less runs in five of the last six games, they find ways to lose games, seemingly every night. I’m constantly fascinated by Mark Borchardt’s info. He alludes to the fact that he thinks Toronto’s offense is better than Cleveland’s and that’s just factually nowhere close to being true. Toronto’s offense is producing under about 3.7 runs a game. Cleveland’s up near five, so that’s just not factual that Toronto’s offense is better. Mark, you want to backtrack on that a bit? Or are you just saying long-term projections?
Basewinner (Mark):
Well, I was talking specifically there regarding the long-term projections. I’ll just look at their OPs this year. If you look at Cleveland’s OPS, they’re at 714, so they are out hitting Toronto at 703. If you look into the hard hit per nine numbers, I think that’s concerning if you think Cleveland’s offense is better than Toronto’s offense. Toronto’s hitting the ball hard hit per nine third in baseball and Cleveland’s 23rd in baseball. So I look for Cleveland to regress in Toronto to get better because-
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, but again, Mark…
Basewinner (Mark):
-of those hard hit metrics and because of the long-term projections. Again, we’re dealing with a really small sample size, so you have to be careful when you’re comparing year-to-date data right now. You have to be careful when you say that Cleveland offense is better than Toronto’s offense because it’s not.
Jeff Nadu:
True in part. The truth is, though, when you bet, you bet game to game. You also alluded to the fact that Kevin Gausman’s great pitcher due to his numbers year-to-date. Listen, I don’t agree with this. I hope you win, I really do. Because you’re part of the show and obviously you have to pick the record up because I’m not doing well. If you’re going to give me Bieber as a dog, I’ll bite. That’s just my thought.
TC Martin:
So here’s the deal for me, guys. I love Gausman. You guys both make very good points. you’re right on the money, Jeff. Cleveland’s offense right now is better. When you look at the star power, it’s on the Toronto side and you’re thinking that Toronto is going to snap out of this. Even Charlie Montoya, their manager is saying we are kind of cold right now, we hope to snap out of this. When you look at the Toronto lineup on paper, it looks really good. They’ve had their moments, but right now, yeah, Cleveland has better numbers at this point in time right now. In the long run will Toronto surpass Cleveland’s from an offensive standpoint? Probably they should. They should be in the conversation of being one of the best teams in Major League Baseball and definitely at the top, along with the Yankees, of the AL East.
TC Martin:
So both these guys are strong pitchers. The offenses both can get going any point in time, it’s kind of a hard game to handicap. But for me, what pushed it over the top for me is Gausman. Gausman is spectacular. 41 strikeouts, hasn’t walked a single batter. That is phenomenal. I like Bieber, but I don’t put him at the Gausman level right now. Bieber is hittable and he doesn’t have the numbers that Gausman has. You go back to the way Bieber closed the season last year, he was very hittable. There was a stretch of games last year where he was giving up like 8, 9, 10 hits in outings. I know that was last year. But if we’re looking at right now, Gausman is a master on the mound. His breaking ball is phenomenal. His slider, it seems, is unhittable. This guy can bring it up to 96, 97. For me right now, Gausman is the difference maker in this game. Look what he did in who he’s faced. Against the Astros, 10 strikeouts. Two starts against Boston a couple weeks ago, nine strikeouts, follows it up with eight strikeouts. Nine strikeouts against the Yankees. All against these stellar offensive teams without committing a single walk.
TC Martin:
Here’s another thing too. The Cleveland Guardians have not seen Gausman since he was a member of the Baltimore Orioles. It’s been three years since they’ve seen him. I’m playing Toronto basically based on Gausman. I hope you’re right, Mark, we better get Gausman at least seven. I’d like to see him go eight because it sets up nice for Mayza and then Romano, because Romano can be unhittable in the ninth as well too. So for me it’s a Gausman play more-so than a Toronto Blue Jay play, but I’m taking the Blue Jays.
Basewinner (Mark):
No, I agree with you. Gausman is my number one, so everything that you say good about him I agree with obviously. He’s my number one. But really? Cleveland’s offense is better than Toronto? That sounds so
TC Martin:
On paper right now.
Jeff Nadu:
It is right now.
Basewinner (Mark):
Their year-to-date. So would you trust a longer body of work projection or would you trust 30 days of data, which… It’s not even 30, it’s almost 30.
Jeff Nadu:
But Mark, you can’t make these arguments when you just quoted yearlong data for Kevin Gausman being your number one pitcher.
Basewinner (Mark):
No, I can certainly make the argument and if you want me to-
Jeff Nadu:
But you’re using-
Basewinner (Mark):
If you want me to quote longer term data, I can also quote longer term data for Kevin Gausman-
Jeff Nadu:
Well, that’s fine, but-
Basewinner (Mark):
Since July he’s ranked 15th out of 210 pitchers and Bieber’s at 96th out of 210. I think I can use both, especially when I’m using probably a subset of data that’s pitch by pitch data rather than year-to-date data that’s at-bat to at-bat. It’s a little bit more granular and I know it correlates better moving forward. There’s a lot of noise in Cleveland’s year-to-date weighted runs created plus, and then I back that up by looking at the hard hit metrics. I would probably bet my house that at the end of the year, Toronto’s offense will be better than Cleveland’s offense. In fact, I would have no problem betting my house.
Jeff Nadu:
I think that’s what I said.
TC Martin:
Exactly.
Jeff Nadu:
Cy Young in 2020, all star in 2021. But for whatever reason, Mark Borchardt thinks Kevin Gausman’s a better pitcher than Shane Bieber.
TC Martin:
Let’s look at this, guys, right now. This is why I’m betting Toronto: because I like Toronto’s offense better than I like Cleveland’s offense. Okay?
Jeff Nadu:
Well, I’ll tell you this-
TC Martin:
Let me just say-
Jeff Nadu:
Go ahead.
TC Martin:
-real quick, the reason why I like that. Cleveland has put up some big numbers, but look who they’ve done it against.
Jeff Nadu:
It doesn’t matter.
TC Martin:
I just rattle off who the Toronto Blue Jays have played. They played the Yankees. They played two series with the Red Sox. They played the Astros in two series as well, too. Cleveland’s been beating up on the A’s on a lot lesser schedule. That’s why the Cleveland numbers right now look better offensively. But overall, do I like the Toronto offense better and will I down the road? Absolutely, I will. That’s why I’m betting Toronto and more in case because of Gausman. Go ahead, Jeff.
Jeff Nadu:
This offense right now is awful. And it’s just that simple. You’re right, though. I guess if we’re playing the “well who have we played?” Game, you’re right. I guess we’ll have to see. I wish you guys luck.
TC Martin:
Let me ask you a question, Jeff. Okay. Whose lineup do you like better? When you look at the lineup 1 through 9 right now, whose lineup do you like better?
Jeff Nadu:
Well, obviously if I look at the lineup, I’m going to say obviously, Bo Bichette and Vlad Guerrero and-
TC Martin:
-And George Springer. Yeah.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, obviously I’m going to say that. But again, sometimes that doesn’t… Look at the Lakers. They have LeBron James and Anthony Davis and all these guys, but they didn’t even make the playoffs.
TC Martin:
I don’t handicap on projections, season-long. Obviously Mark does here. I made my case why I’m playing the Toronto Blue Jays, and I’m hoping that the bats get better.
Jeff Nadu:
But I’m not under… maybe…
TC Martin:
They’re better offensively now.
Jeff Nadu:
The show is shorter today, so we can divulge into this. I guess I’m not understanding how does a year-long projection have any bearing on what goes on today? Because that’s what’s going to happen, maybe.
TC Martin:
You’re right.
Jeff Nadu:
Today I could fall off my balcony. I hope I don’t, but I could.
Basewinner (Mark):
Jeff, there’s always going to be variance in day-to-day. But for my projections, I’d rather use data that is more robust than a 30 day sample worth of data. If you talk to anybody who uses data and handicapping seriously, there would be no question on what a better idea is to do long term. There’s going to be variance day to day, but if you hold all your projections in your model and you’re playing the Blue Jays, when value indicates in your model, then long-term, you’re going to win money.
Basewinner (Mark):
That’s the goal of betting baseball over a season is long-term, you want to win. So you want to take those opportunities where the model presents value and jump on them. One thing I do want to say is if anybody wants to bet, I’ll give you… You’ve got a head start. You’ve got Cleveland at 113 weighted runs created plus and you’ve got the Blue Jays at 105. So you guys get a head start, but if anybody wants to bet me on whether the Blue Jays are going to be better than the Indians, I’ll take the Blue Jays. I’m behind eight points in weighted runs created plus. So just let me know. I’ll take that bet.
Jeff Nadu:
I’m not disagreeing with you on that. My question more or less is I don’t understand in today’s matchup how their long term… what they might be in the playoffs… What that has any bearing on today. That’s what I’m saying.
Basewinner (Mark):
Well, it’s not what they might be in the playoffs. It’s what they are going to be, what my projections are season-long. This is a game that’s part of the season, and I’m using projections based on longer samples of data to project what these guys are going to produce. There’s going to be variance game to game. I’m not arguing that. The Blue Jays aren’t going to score 5.2 runs every game. They’re going to have games where they score eight. They’re going to have games where they score three. But over the long run, they’re going to have more games that they’re going to score higher than the average team and then lower than the average team. So that’s…
Jeff Nadu:
I guess I just look at it, Mark, in layman’s terms for our listeners. I’ll compare it to this: Saturday night I may go out and I may get a girl to hang with me. But tonight I know I’m not going to have that and I’m just going to be alone in my house. I look at it kind of like that. I could have that happen in a couple of days, but tonight it’s not. I just have to understand.
Basewinner (Mark):
[crosstalk 00:17:49] Let’s go back to your metrics. I want to go backTC Martin:
[crosstalk 00:17:52] -He’s -350 on the board. If you have -350, you’re not dating.Basewinner (Mark):
I want to go back to his metrics for picking up girls. Let’s say you and a guy that looked exactly like you, you guys go out on the same day. Over the last 30 days, you’ve picked up five girls and he’s only picked up three. But over the last two years, he’s picked up 200 girls and you’ve only picked up 15. Who would you bet on to pick on a girl? I would bet on the guy that has the more longer term success. I would say that your success recently would amount to variance and luck.
Jeff Nadu:
Well, but remember-
Basewinner (Mark):
Maybe that explains the larger sample. Maybe that explains it.
Jeff Nadu:
But over the last years that individual’s been picking up girls, I’ve been way overweight now I’m not, and I’ve had a lot more recent success. So I hear you. It’s good conversation either way.
TC Martin:
Here’s the bottom line, guys. In the handicapping world and in the girl world, too, right? Mark is banking on the due theory. Jeff, you’re due. The Toronto Blue Jays are due. The due theory. There it is.
Jeff Nadu:
Well, I’m not really due, but I get what you’re saying.
TC Martin:
Okay. Oh, hold on, hold on. Late money’s come in, Jeff will get a date. It’s now down to minus 220.
Basewinner (Mark):
Keep us informed on that, Jeff, so us married guys can live vicariously through you.
Jeff Nadu:
Okay, sounds good.
TC Martin:
Guys, let’s get to the rest of the board please. All right, lock myself and Basewinner in. We’re taking the Toronto Blue Jays. We’re both banking on the due theory that the Blue Jay’s bats will come alive and Kevin Gausman will continue to do what he’s done so far this year. So there you go. Minus 138 for the Blue Jays on the road, hopefully all this comes to fruition. This game doesn’t get rained out. A lot of conversation on this game.
TC Martin:
All right, Colorado at Arizona, next up Chad Kuhl going for the Rocks and Merrill Kelly for Arizona. I look at this pitchy matchup and I say, yuck. Arizona, we know no weather affected there. Nice hot, sticky day. 145 for the Diamondbacks as the favorite, Colorado plus 130. The total: eight and a half slightly shaded to the over here, minus 115 to the over. Jeff, Rockies and Diamondbacks. Go.
Jeff Nadu:
One of the handicaps I had yesterday on Colorado was the fact of just how good they are at home offensively. They’ve always been very good in that building. But you look at on the road, they have been a totally different offense. You look at at home averaging about 5.8 runs a game. On the road, 3.1 runs per game. They’re just a different team away from Coors Field. We look at their pitcher tonight, Chad Kuhl. Take away the first game at Texas, where he gave up four walks. In the three starts since, just three walks. His opponent batting average is 160. He’s been really good. I’m going to get five innings out of Chad Kuhl. That’s the hope here for the Rockies. I know their offense isn’t good. They’re going up against a guy that’s been really solid in Merrill Kelly. 28 innings he’s only given up four earned runs. He’s struck out 26 opponents only hitting 208 off of…
Jeff Nadu:
We all know as well, this is an Arizona team. One of the worst lineups in the major leagues. You look at at home, they’re averaging under three runs a game, cavernous ballpark out in Chase Field. I just don’t see a ton of runs. I’m going to bank on the home-away split for the Colorado Rockies in the fact that they’re just not a very good offense. I have two good pitchers here. I want to eliminate the bullpens in this game. I have no interest in Colorado’s bullpen and I have even less interest in Arizona’s. First five under four and a half. I think at worst it’s a two-two baseball game. I’m going to hope for a couple of solid empty frames, here. I’m going to take the under in the first five.
TC Martin:
Okay. Sounds good. Base winner.
Basewinner (Mark):
Yeah. My projection for the game would agree with Jeff. I’ve got it at 7.8 runs and the game projections at 8.5. I do agree with a lot of things that Jeff said. So, Jeff, I’m not just arguing with you for the sake of arguing.
Jeff Nadu:
I know.
Basewinner (Mark):
I think you make a good point and it’s really weird. Even when you adjust for the park factors with this Colorado offense home-away, it doesn’t explain why there’s so much poorer on the road. That’s a pretty good angle to say, “well, they’re not scoring on the road”. This is a good opportunity to take a poor team projection-wise and a poor team from the recent performance… You’ve got two things going for you with that Rockies lineup on the road.
Basewinner (Mark):
The one thing that is interesting about Arizona: they put a humidor into effect in 2018. When I saw that you were going to have this play, Jeff, I thought it would be interesting to see what the total, the over-under split was since they put that humidor in play. It’s pretty surprising, actually. You’d think that there’d be more unders than overs, but the overs are actually 138 and 132. So does that mean anything either way? Probably not. I think that was just kind of interesting to see that the book makers are pricing it right, even with the humidor in place. Kuhl and Kelly, I got them about league average. Kuhl stuff plus 37%, Kelly 42%. He did have a really good outing, his last time out. It was an 80 percentile. I think that, Jeff, if playing this on the first five innings, the under’s probably the way to go, because these bullpens aren’t very good. So yeah, overall I agree with the play, Jeff.
Jeff Nadu:
Keep in mind, Arizona at home this year, to couple onto what Mark said there, nine and two to the under. This team, they just can’t hit. Outside of Cincinnati may have the worst lineup in the league. I think it’s pretty standard.
TC Martin:
What’s funny about this game, guys, is because you got the whole disparity here of the Colorado Rockies have the best offense in baseball right now. Now, a lot of that is because how good they are at home. But they’re batting 263, which is the tops in Major League Baseball. And Arizona, like you mentioned, Jeff, dead last at 191. You’ve got the best offense against the worst offense. And you’ve got two pitchers, like you say, Mark, are pretty league average or so.
Basewinner (Mark):
Would you say ham and eggers?
TC Martin:
I wouldn’t call these guys ham and eggers because they’re pitching well. I’m not a fan of either one of these pitchers of their entire career or body of work, but so far, this year they-
Basewinner (Mark):
The reason I ask that question, TC-
TC Martin:
-they’ve pitched pretty well.
Basewinner (Mark):
The reason I ask that question, TC, is because Jeff and I have a side bet on your use of “ham and egger” term. We have a side bed on the over three. So I think I cashed on the over three ham and egger term.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, you definitely did. I will say-
TC Martin:
Have I used ham and egger today? It’s zero.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, you did a couple times with that thing.
Basewinner (Mark):
You did when you’re talking about the Philly bullpen. Which I’m not saying it’s a bad thing.
TC Martin:
Oh I did, yeah.
Basewinner (Mark):
I’m just saying it’s a good side be to have with Jeff.
Jeff Nadu:
Keep one other thing in mind. To couple on what TC said about Colorado’s batting average, while they are hitting 265 as a team, a lot of that has to do with their home splits. On the road they’re hitting 230
TC Martin:
Yeah hat’s why I understand where your hat your captain is on the road. Yeah, I agree with that. Yeah.
Jeff Nadu:
161 for Arizona at home, 161! TC, you and I could hit a better percentage at home than that.
TC Martin:
No, there’s no doubt. No doubt.
Jeff Nadu:
Crazy.
TC Martin:
Let’s lock Jeff in with this pick here and try to bring this one home. It’s under four and a half for the first five innings of the Rockies and the Diamondback game. He’ll lay 115 on that one.
TC Martin:
All right, next up guys, Cardinals and the Giants. Second game of this series, the Giants, a home favorite here at 126, Cardinals plus 116. The total in this game is seven shaded to the over at minus 120. Jordan Hicks going for St. Louis tonight and Alex Cobb going for San Francisco. This is kind of a gut feeling play for me. I probably have no statistical angle to back this up guys, but this is just kind of a gut feeling for me.
TC Martin:
Anytime I can go against an opener, I’m going to do that and Jordan Hicks is that. Even though they’re trying to stretch him out, this guy basically is a career relief pitcher and I don’t like guys like this, especially Jordan Hicks. He’s had five starts. He’s been a relief pitcher basically for his entire career, like I mentioned. Hasn’t gone past the third inning in any start this year and he’s had five starts this year. The San Francisco bats, they haven’t been very good, but there’s an excuse here. As we know, they had several guys out for COVID, still got a couple injuries with Longoria, but they are getting two guys back tonight. Brandon Belt should be back and Wade should be coming back tonight as well too.
TC Martin:
San Francisco, I really think they’re going to be able to get to Hicks tonight. I’m not a big corn on the Cobb guy. I mean, I do love corn on the cob, it’s one of my favorites, but Alex corn on the Cobb, not one of my favorite pitchers at all. I will say this about the Giants: they lost last night. I believe the score was what, seven to one? They did get 10 hits in this game. The Giants have been hitting the ball. So I think tonight they snap out of it, especially if they get Belt and Wade back tonight. I’m going against ham and egger Jordan Hicks tonight. I’m going to take the Giants. Like I said, it’s just more of a gut feeling. Basewinner?
Basewinner (Mark):
Yeah, I think the game’s priced probably where it should be. I’ve got it at minus 120. It’s minus 126 in the market. An interesting comparison about the pitchers is they both have stuff plus that’s almost… It’s not quite identical, but Hicks has 57% stuff plus, and Cobb has a 63% stuff plus. I think what really is hard for me to get behind the Giants is because of this offense. I have them probably right around 19th in baseball and it’s kind of in flux right now. I kind of hesitate on that rating because we don’t know who’s going to be in the lineup, but you mentioned they’re getting their guys back. So that’ll help out the Giants.
Basewinner (Mark):
But I’m going to pass on this game. I think that there’s some, some conflicting metrics. I do think of corn on the cob though, every time. that’s funny that you said that, because every time that I, that I see Alex Cobb, you do think about corn on the cob.
TC Martin:
Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah.
Basewinner (Mark):
He’s pitched… his first two starts with 80 percentile yet the last time out wasn’t good at a two percentile, but Hicks has been a 56 percentile, seventh percentile, sixth percentile. There’s a lot of conflicting numbers here. The fact that you just don’t know what you’re going to get quite yet with San Francisco, I would just pass on this game, TC.
TC Martin:
Yep. Jeff?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I was surprised. I thought this total would be eight, eight and a half. It’s seven. I think there’s some value maybe an over here, as you alluded to TC. You’re not going to get Hicks for very long. Let’s say you get them three, four innings, even. You’re going to have a lot of spots and opportunities for an appearance against that bullpen. Cobb has not been effective. I don’t really know what they’re doing with Cobb. He’s pitched once since April 19th. And he only had what, two and a third. He gave up one-
TC Martin:
Well, that was from a groin injury.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. Right. So he’s probably not fully back to health. He hasn’t been real effective either. For two teams that… Remember the major leagues have not been over parks this year. Not a lot of good over teams. In fact, there’s only about seven or eight teams that have over a 52% over rate in baseball. St. Louis is the third best over team in baseball. Giants, not far behind. I think these totals are just a little too low, neither team has particularly solid pitchers out there today. Both are scoring about four runs a game. I know you alluded to St. Louis and some of these teams have COVID issues, but seven’s a little low. These aren’t two pitchers that I’m running to bet a seven with in baseball. I don’t know if we play it, but if I had to play it, that’s the way I’d go.
TC Martin:
Yeah. The reason you’re getting the seven, too, Jeff, nighttime baseball in that park, it’s brutal. We know it’s a pitcher’s park anyway. You get the high today in San Francisco is only going to be 63. So by the time the sun goes down tonight, this game it’s going to be in the fifties tonight. The wind will be blowing about 15 miles per hour. So that’s why you’re seeing a low total. It’s hard to bet overs in that park at night games.
Jeff Nadu:
You’re right about that. All I need is hopefully a three run shot to make it feel decent. I don’t think I’m going to play it. This is kind of one of those where, I don’t know, I didn’t really see much value in it
TC Martin:
Like I said, this is just a gut play for me. So I don’t love the game. With the other games getting, you know, rained out today, which I did like the Dodgers earlier and I like the Yankees earlier. This is a game… okay, let’s throw this one on just kind of a gut feeling so we could talk about it today. So I’ll take a shot with the Giants here in the slight favorite here, minus 126. So I’ll take a shot with San Francisco. And yes, Corn on the Cobb. I don’t know about you guys. I love my salt, but I like pepper on corn in the cob. Throw some pepper on there and I throw it on my grill. I don’t know about you guys. Most ham and eggers will go ahead and boil it somewhere. Put it on the grill, spin it a couple times. With my steak. That’s what I’m talking about.
Basewinner (Mark):
So if I boil my corn, I’m a ham and egger?
TC Martin:
That’s the lazy way to do it.
Basewinner (Mark):
If I grill my corn, I’m a basewinner? Elite pitcher or elite corn on the cob guy, right?
TC Martin:
Try it on the grill. You’ll get the markings on there and everything. The husks start to-
Basewinner (Mark):
You put it with a husk on there?
TC Martin:
Huh?
Basewinner (Mark):
You actually put it on there with a husk on it?
TC Martin:
No, no, no. I peel the husk.
Basewinner (Mark):
Okay.
TC Martin:
I peel it, but you can kind of get a little of that leftover on there. Soak it with butter, the salt, the pepper on top. Game, set, match. There you go.
Basewinner (Mark):
Sounds good.
TC Martin:
Let’s go to some questions real quick here. Any thoughts on the Red Sox and the White Sox today? Aaron has that question.
Basewinner (Mark):
Yeah. I loved the Red Sox yesterday when it was minus 135, but now it’s at like minus 165 and that’s how I have it priced. But Eovaldi I’m high on, I’ve got him at ninth best pitcher in baseball, out of 150. Velasquez 134th out of 150. The offenses are… To me, the White Sox a little bit better to me, they’re kind of equal. That’s how it shakes out to the minus 164, but really big line movement on it. Also Eovaldi stuff plus 87 percentile, Velasquez 54th percentile. That’s that’s kind of interesting, you would think his stuff plus would be lower than that. But for me it’s a no play. It was, it was a play yesterday at noon, but not now.
TC Martin:
Okay. Jeff, any thoughts on that? Or total play here, Guardians over? We kind of talked about that game with Toronto. What about the Royals? Any thoughts over there about a total play there?
Jeff Nadu:
I was just going to say one thing about that White Sox-Red sox. It kind of reminds me a little bit of that Phillies-Mets game yesterday, as far as the numbers it’s kind of gotten out of hand and you ultimately… Look, I want Eovaldi, Vincent Velasquez sucks. I know that for a fact. He was here for a long time and wasn’t any good and that’s no surprise that he’s not pitched well really there either. I’m not a big White Sox guy, either, that offenses struggle. They’ve had a tough year. I’ve had Ohtani… We talked about this yesterday and that game against the angels. That was an early game. I think we all alluded to the fact that we may have liked the Angels there. That ended up being an easy winner.
Jeff Nadu:
As far as Casey, Baltimore. Yeah, I don’t hate it. Anytime two bad teams play each other, I’m always looking at overs. I mean, obviously Lyles is a disaster. Hernandez, I’m not real interested in him, either. Two lineups and two teams that aren’t very good, but when they play each other, usually sparks fly. You look at the best over team in baseball, folks, 63% of their games have went over. You look at a team like Cincinnati. They’re the worst team in baseball. They have three wins, but again, they’re pitching staff’s atrocious. So every game they’re going to give up six, seven runs. I thought that was a good over play today.
Jeff Nadu:
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh… Weirdly enough, I actually saw this Connor Overton character. I saw him pitch here in Lancaster, where I live at the Barnstormers. I saw him pitch back in 2018, 2019, something like that. I went to a random game and he was there pitching, he now pitches for Cincinnati. This guy’s been a career… talk about a ham and egger. This guy’s a complete ham and egger. This guy’s five ERA kind of guy. Brubaker, he’s been a mess. So I kind of like over eight and a half in this game a little bit.
TC Martin:
Yeah. I can see that. Yeah. Makes sense. Okay. All right guys, let’s take a look at our best bets here as we get ready for the Friday card and the weekend ahead of us, here. Jeff’s going to be on that first five under four and a half total with the Rockies and the Diamondbacks. Myself, I’m on the Toronto Blue Jays, along with the Basewinner, against Cleveland. And I’m taking a shot with the San Francisco Giants at home tonight at minus 126. Like I said, couple rainouts, so a little bit limited on the card here as well.
Jeff Nadu:
One thought here, and I’m just going to throw this out there. I’d be very surprised if we see a game tonight in Philadelphia. I’d be very surprised tonight if we see a game in Baltimore. It’s pouring out. It’s been pouring all day and it looks to pour all day until tomorrow. So I’d be very surprised if you don’t see more cancellation.
TC Martin:
Yeah. All right. Kentucky Derby weekend. I don’t know if you guys are horse players or not, but it’s Derby day, the 148th running. Looking forward to that. Always love the first Saturday in May. Love it. What about you, Mark? Do you put those numbers together and…
Basewinner (Mark):
Oh, horse racing.
TC Martin:
Safe metrics from a horse perspective?
Basewinner (Mark):
Betting horse racing’s a disease. I think I went to a sportsbook there in Vegas and joined the crowd that’s betting on the horses, I think I’d bring the age demographic down about 20 years. And I’m 52.
TC Martin:
Everybody’s an expert on the Derby, though. I could tell you that. All ages.
Basewinner (Mark):
More than the Kentucky Derby, my biggest question is I want the odds on Jeff… How did he say it? Getting together with a girl? Or having…
TC Martin:
Yeah, like I said it’s down to minus 250-
Basewinner (Mark):
Yeah. What are the odds, Jeff? How are you feeling?
TC Martin:
Over the weekend, yeah.
Jeff Nadu:
Oh, I feel pretty fine. Where I live it’s… As long as you have… I’m not going to go into it, but as long as you have something… I’ve always said it’s not about looks when it comes to women. If you have a good line of nonsense, you can get any girl you want. It’s very simple. But as far as the Kentucky Derby, you know how you could spot a horse player? If you see someone this weekend giving you horse picks and they don’t ever bet horses, that’s how you know they’re complete fugazy as we would say. If you go on a Tuesday to the Borgata or to the OTB and you see people betting Park’s Casino, those are the guys you want to get picks from. I will say that, that being said, Messier is going to win the Kentucky Derby tomorrow. Bank it.
TC Martin:
He’s going Messier. Well, okay. I’m doing a Kentucky Derby show on my show a little bit later today. So I’ll bring that up.
Basewinner (Mark):
Who do you like TC? I’ll bet Messier for Jeff, and who do you like?
TC Martin:
You know what? I’m still doing some handicapping with this. I really don’t know yet and I’m having my man Mattress Mac on today who is betting the favorite. He bets the favorite every year. He’s going to have about $8 million spread out the [crosstalk 00:37:27]
Basewinner (Mark):
That’s a cool show. I might catch that show. That’s actually a good… Now how do you know Matt? Was that a Dusty Baker connection?
TC Martin:
No, that was a me connection in Houston. Actually meeting him when I was back in Houston, the past couple summers. He’s a degenerate gambler as well too and he… He’s a marketing guru. He does all these promotions. With his furniture store, Gallery Furniture, he has furniture stores all throughout the state of Texas, is that if the favorite wins he refunds anybody who spent $3,000 worth of money on his furniture. So he hedges his bets and he’s betting the favorite. But here’s the thing about Mattress Mac. He’s a really astute guy when it comes to horse racing. He’s a horse owner and he used to own Run Happy and Smile Happy is his horse. So Smile Happy’s going in. So he’s going to have a couple million on Smile Happy and he is going to bet the favorite which looks to be Zandon.
Jeff Nadu:
Run Happy was terrific. That’s very interesting. I guess the question I have, TC, is when are you going to have me on your show? And what a wild move to not ever contact me about that.
TC Martin:
Well, it’s early in our relationship, Jeff. If you’d like to come on, I’ll make room for you. No problem.
Jeff Nadu:
Of course. Of course.
TC Martin:
I’ll push some of my hall of famers aside just to get Jeff Nadu on so we could talk about the Lancaster women in his life.
Jeff Nadu:
Absolutely. Let’s do it. Let’s do it.
TC Martin:
You’re down brother. Anytime.
Basewinner (Mark):
I’m tuning in for that one.
TC Martin:
You’ve got an open invitation, man. Absolutely. We’ll have some fun with that. Absolutely.
Jeff Nadu:
Thank you.
TC Martin:
All right, guys. Good luck on the weekend. Hopefully we get some more winners. We reconvene on Monday. Again, MLB Show by BetUS. Make sure you like, subscribe to this show and the channel MLBTV. All right, guys. Have a good weekend. Appreciate it. We’re Jeff Nadu, Basewinner, TC Martin saying have a great weekend.
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