Mark Borchard:

I’m doing pretty good. As far as the answers to the question, we hope that they’re good answers. They’re our best educated answers, but we don’t know whether they’re good or bad until the next day or I guess until later that night rather.

TC Martin:

That’s true. Gotcha. Scott, I could do my Rowdy Roddy Piper and say, “Just when you think you have the answer, I’ll change the question.”

Scott Spreitzer:

Wow. I wish I could come back with a Jimmy Superfly snooker right now, but I can’t. Maybe I should get on my desk behind me and drop off the top rope.

TC Martin:

[inaudible 00:01:16] better, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

Anyway, I’m doing well man. Guys, I was really happy yesterday. I was on a rollercoaster ride with the Mariners, who I laid a run and a half with. The old, “Oh, they can’t lose three in a row to the Oakland A’s, right?” And so yeah, that was a fun one because I was doing a bunch of shows. I see I’m up three, nothing. I see them down five, three. You go from, “Yeah,” to, “Ugh.” And then of course, they come back and win nine to five. So feeling pretty good about that one. But we’re going to, I don’t know, are they on the agenda today? I was just looking at the games. We’re not talking about the Mariners today, but guys, I just saw this morning that J-Rod is back to being in a lot of pain, may not play today. I mean, this is scary situation right now for Seattle as they head into the playoffs with the guy they absolutely need to be the catalyst of this batting order. I mean, he’s number one or number two in every important offensive category for rookies.

And I just was going to throw that at you guys that all of a sudden, Seattle’s an average baseball team if he’s not in the mix, which is good news for whoever is likely to play them coming up in the post season. And we aren’t talking about them or are we? No, we’re not. Okay.

TC Martin:

No-

Scott Spreitzer:

Listen, I heard right before-

TC Martin:

We’re doing some interviews on the show today, and we’re not talking about the Mariners.

Scott Spreitzer:

I was just going to say I was-

TC Martin:

What happened, Basewinner?

Scott Spreitzer:

Well, I just fell quick. I was on YouTube and slow. I guess I am too today, Sorry, Basewinner.

Mark Borchard:

I know that you’ve talked about Dusty Baker’s affection for Marco Gonzalez, but the Basewinner numbers do not like Marco Gonzalez. So I just can’t back-

Scott Spreitzer:

It stinks.

Mark Borchard:

Seattle. The analytics look bad, but Dusty’s right. Every time the guy can shut that… I remember I had an over [inaudible 00:02:51] Gonzales. Pretty good analysis. This guys have bad metrics. And those guys who are just 0, 0, 0 and you’re like, “Where’s the regression? Where’s the regression guys?” So that’s why I’m not. But interesting Scott, that game yesterday, they brought up Kelenic and he was a much touted prospect. He hasn’t really done anything, but he had himself a game yesterday. So I thought that was exciting if you’re a Mariners fan. Maybe that guy can find himself at the right time and moving into the playoffs.

TC Martin:

All right guys, let’s take a look at the board real quick here as we get ready for today’s game, we’ll get into the matchups. But again, shout out and congrats to Basewinner and Dave. We talked about the Cleveland Guardians game yesterday going for the sweep. And it’s funny, I got a couple phone calls and texts after the show yesterday and they go, “You know it’s so hard to sweep a team on the road and this and that?” And bottom line is, yeah, but we’re talking about the Chicago White Sox here and a red hot Cleveland Guardians team. And congratulations, Basewinner. You nailed that one. And again, there’s no need sometimes to really overthink. And I know in the beginning I was overthinking that and I go, “Wait a minute, Dave’s so strong on this. You’re so strong on this. It makes all the sense in the world. Just go ahead and pull the trigger with it.” And that’s exactly what happened.

The White Sox, they’re done. They were on life support before they started that series. They’re on their home turf and non-competitive really in two of the three games. And past the eighth or ninth inning, non competitive in all three games because the way they got blown out in extra innings in the opener. But yeah, I think we say goodbye to the White Sox. Tony La Russa doesn’t really have to hurry back, forget about it. But this Guardians team can do some damage in the post season. I believe the number now is they have won 14 out of their last 17. So may be a team to watch out for in the postseason.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, Tristan McKenzie going double digit strikeouts the other night, and he was the better pitcher. We were talked about Lance Lynn and we wanted to back him, and he ended up not being the better pitcher. And so I think that those two guys, you’ve got Bieber, you’ve got McKenzie, that’s about all you’ve got from a starting standpoint though, unfortunately. But their bullpen really can bring it. And I would compare their bullpen favorably. And really it’s depending on what chart you look at, they’re either number one or number two by my ratings and the other bullpen being in Seattle. So I think that Seattle, Cleveland matchup would be intriguing to me.

TC Martin:

Scott, you may want to take off your headphones for a second here. Basewinner, what are we supposed to hear today? We’re supposed to hear a little Beaver fever. Mark Borchard promised us today-

Mark Borchard:

Oh, no way. Okay.

TC Martin:

The [inaudible 00:05:42] Beaver was a victory.

Mark Borchard:

So maybe you guys could help us out in the chat room, because I asked my wife, I said, “Well, what other songs does he have?” I know Baby, Baby, Baby, Oh, but that’s the only Justin Bieber.” And so I’m like, “Well, this guy’s this Vegas star. This guy’s this mega star, but I can only name one song of his.” No, I’m not going to sing. I can’t sing that. That’s way too high pitched.

TC Martin:

Our audience was waiting for after a Guardian victory, and you said you had Bieber Fever. You actually made the promise. I mean, [inaudible 00:06:15]-

Mark Borchard:

That would take the show right down.

TC Martin:

Yesterday.

Mark Borchard:

That would take the show right down the toilet, guys. I mean, really? Come on. I can’t sing that high.

Scott Spreitzer:

There was a commercial a few years ago and I forget, I don’t even remember what the commercial was for, but it was Ozzie Osborne and it was Justin Bieber. And I echo Ozzie Osborne’s statement, what he said to his wife, “What’s a Bieber?” So there you go.

TC Martin:

I believe they’re playing USC this weekend, Scott. That’s who I think they are, right?

Scott Spreitzer:

Oh, okay. Yeah, yeah.

TC Martin:

Oregon State.

Scott Spreitzer:

Oregon State, yeah.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, there you go.

Scott Spreitzer:

The Biebers, The Beavers. Yeah, okay.

Mark Borchard:

It’s the same difference.

Scott Spreitzer:

Okay. You threw me for a loop there for a second. I’m thinking, what? Then I realized it’s Oregon State. That’s right.

TC Martin:

Okay. I’m sorry folks. You will get a full refund. Go to the general admission gate, you’ll get a refund of today’s show, not hearing the Basewinner sing. Shocking. Just shocking. I mean, you go ahead and you basically guilt me into singing a little Michael McDonald. I mean, nobody can match that.

Mark Borchard:

You got it though. You nailed that man until you tried to… You did China Grove really good. But then I think where you were like, “I keep forgetting,” and I think you tried to go to that song, and you didn’t do that one very good. But the China Grove was great, I thought.

TC Martin:

But for you Basewinner, you had basically almost 24 hours to prepare for this. I don’t know.

Mark Borchard:

Wow.

Scott Spreitzer:

Hey, yesterday, Basewinner, I mean we’ve lost all anybody who was watching. So we could just chat now among the three of us. But yesterday I’m doing his radio show and he’s talking about rolling his Rs and all this kind of stuff and all I was going to say Mr. Martin was, “Give it away, give it away, give it away now.” See, there you go. That’s how you roll those.

Mark Borchard:

That’s pretty good. Man, wow.

Scott Spreitzer:

Head over to Anthony Kiedis here. All right.

Mark Borchard:

There we go. Good job, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

And now the final person watching just left. So hey.

TC Martin:

You don’t realize Scott, they actually tune in for this, you know what I’m saying?

Scott Spreitzer:

That makes sense.

TC Martin:

I mean, you could get breakdowns and batting averages and whips, you can get that anywhere, but you can’t get the entire package here. I mean, [inaudible 00:08:11] room only right now, I guarantee it.

Scott Spreitzer:

I mean, we’ve got for a Beaver to the Chili Peppers to Oregon State football-

Mark Borchard:

We did Neil. You were here that week.

Scott Spreitzer:

All in 30 seconds.

Mark Borchard:

We did Neil Diamond last weekend.

Scott Spreitzer:

Really?

Mark Borchard:

Last Friday. Yeah. Yep. Sweet Caroline. Yep.

TC Martin:

And we did the Two Man Show when you couldn’t get on. Yeah. We ended up just singing half the show. There it is.

Scott Spreitzer:

Did you really? What song did you do with Neil Diamond? Which song?

TC Martin:

Well, no. Again, he goated me into doing Sweet Caroline, because he knew I was going to Fenway Park the next day.

Scott Spreitzer:

Ah, okay. Gotcha. Yeah.

TC Martin:

So that’s it. Yeah.

Scott Spreitzer:

Did you guys know that? He wrote, Girl You’ll Be a Woman Soon that was heard on Pulp Fiction? We’ve had a lot of Pulp Fiction.

TC Martin:

You’ve got that right.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yes, we’ve heard that-

Mark Borchard:

There we go. The cast of Pulp Fiction show reference.

TC Martin:

(singing)

Scott Spreitzer:

And he just said, “You’ve got that right.” Mark, you just went, “You’ve got that right.” And I had flashbacks to Fargo what he yelled out, “You’ve got that right.” I was waiting for all… I bet, whatever.

TC Martin:

Oh, yeah. It’s a Radisson, you know? Yeah.

Mark Borchard:

Wow.

TC Martin:

All right. On to the games today. You sure you guys want to go to the games? Are you really sure?

Scott Spreitzer:

Let’s keep [inaudible 00:09:18]

Mark Borchard:

Baseball handicapping at its finest.

TC Martin:

There you go. On the docket today, Atlanta. You know that wasn’t even just a soft fade in that was a hard slide right there. Boom. TC, get back to the game.

Scott Spreitzer:

We’re pros.

TC Martin:

Thank you, Alejandro. Philly’s $1.52 favorite over the Bravos today. Jake Odorizzi the afore mention which Basewinner brought up that usually smells like his name. Aaron Nola going for Philly today. One of the streakiest teams in baseball guys, the Philadelphia Phillies. They’ve won two in a row right now, but prior to that they lost five in a row, and then before that they won five straight games. Aaron Nola, tell me what happened to Aaron Nola because three of the last six games, this guy has got bombed. And one, he didn’t give up any runs but only lasted two innings. So I really can’t figure out what’s going on there in Philadelphia. Can’t play Atlanta in this game. Can’t play Odorizzi. Philly is psychotic. Nola, which was their best pitcher, I can’t figure him out. Scott, what do you think?

Scott Spreitzer:

Well, you talked about Nola. I mean, his last six outings have been so odd because he’s thrown about 33 and two thirds innings in those six outings. And as you mentioned in 16 of those innings, he has given up four, eight and five earned runs and three of those starts. And the other 17 and two thirds innings, he’s allowed one earned run over that time span, 17 and two thirds innings. So a lot of questions with Aaron Nola.

And listen, if you’re the other side, if the Braves, I mean back to back losses, still a bit banged up. Joining of course yesterday, the list of aches and pains, Ronald Acuña who missed last night’s game. He’s questionable tonight with the back situation. I know it’s hard to trust Odorizzi. He doesn’t exactly eat up a lot of innings when he is out there, even when he is pitching well. But it’s tough to back Philly right now. I mean, look at Philly. They won last night’s game one nothing. And outside of that crazy 18 to 11 game against Toronto, they’ve scored a total of 15 runs in their other six games since September 15th.

So sticking with today’s outstanding theme, I think I like Georgia and Ray Charles a Little bit better than the streets of Philadelphia and Bruce Springsteen.

Mark Borchard:

Wow.

Scott Spreitzer:

And absolute nothing but a lean. Nothing but a lean. Nothing but a G thing. Nothing but a lean on the Braves in this one.

Mark Borchard:

Wow. Holy cow.

TC Martin:

And that’s it. He put the cherry on top of the whipped cream when he went, “Nothing but a G thing.” Thank you very much. Basewinner, you went way over your head with that.

Mark Borchard:

The Doctor Dre reference on a BetUS Show. Probably 250 to one prior to the show, I would think.

TC Martin:

That’s one good $5 shake. All right.

Scott Spreitzer:

Oh man, I love it. You don’t put any vodka in there?

TC Martin:

No, that’s-

Scott Spreitzer:

That’s John Travolta.

TC Martin:

Ice cream and milk.

Scott Spreitzer:

Basewinner, get us back on track, please.

Mark Borchard:

We’re all having a good time on Friday. Yeah. It’s definitely a Friday show here. This is an interesting game for me, because I usually love to play Nola. And the model’s not kicking out Nola today. I’ve got Nola in the model still at 29% better than average, but Odorizzi, and usually he’s a lot of odor and not a lot of easy. And I’ve got him actually at league average here and it has to do with his median over the last 17 games. I’ve got this thing, the log cutter, it actually contextualizes for the opponents faced. And he fares a lot better there than his Basewinner ERA, which is $4.64. So in the model, there’s really no advantage to either side. I’ve got it priced at minus $1.44 in the market. It’s a minus $1.45.

But what I can say, and I think that this might be the way to play this game, it is the BetUS game of the day. So you might want to consider playing it. I’ve got a projection at 7.7 runs, and I think this seven’s a little bit low here. You look at both of these offenses and they’re quite capable. I’ve got Atlanta in this respective split, eight in baseball and I’ve got Philly 11th in baseball. So I don’t think that we’re getting… Maybe Nola’s running out of steam. You guys made an interesting point, he’s up and down. Well, I’ve bet him over the years so many times that he’s actually up and down within a game. And the guy can just be lights out one inning, and then next inning he just loses it.

So I think if you play the over in that, you have that going for you that he could be great for four innings. Inning five, he just loses it. And then Odorizzi, I don’t know. I mean, there’s a lot to say about him, not a lot of good stuff to say about him. So I think that if you play this game, you may want to consider playing the over here.

TC Martin:

All right. With Philly being the favorite today, no play for us today guys. So there will be no Layla or Nola today.

Scott Spreitzer:

Not with us.

TC Martin:

There you go. Whew.

Scott Spreitzer:

If Ronald Acuña plays, I’m just going to come right back with this and say that maybe taking him not a decent price, it’ll come down a little bit. But if he gets announced on the lineup, that might be something to look at a little bit later. And I like your analysis, Mark. That’s the thing is either one of these pitchers, they could be throwing a perfecto through three and all of a sudden, give up a crooked number the very next inning. It’s tough to gauge these two right now.

TC Martin:

All right. We move on from Derek and the Dominoes to our next game, the Houston Astros and the Baltimore Orioles today. And the Astros $1.43 favorite. You like the dog, you like the O’s that got home yesterday plus $1.28 and they’ll throw another young pitcher out there, Bradish. That’s two good starts for Bradish yesterday against the Astros in the last month. Dean Kramer, the UNLV product, I’ve talked a lot about him on the show in the past. He’s going to give it a shot for the O’s today against José Urquidy. Total in this game is seven and a half minus $1.20 towards the oversight in this one.

So a lot of people will look at this line and they’ll say, “Hey, Houston $1.43.” And they go, “Oh. Well, it’s Urquidy.” And they say, “Well, look at or key’s last two starts.” And they’ll say, “Well, he hasn’t been very good.” That would be true. I will point this out to you, however, those starts were at home. José Urquidy is a totally different pitcher on the road than he is at home. When you look at Urquidy’s last eight road starts guys, he’s given up three earned runs or less. Now in six of those eight games, it’s been two runs or less. A couple shutouts there, a couple one run games you’ve given up. And in the last four games on the road he’s given up one run or less.

What you get with Urquidy is he’s got tremendous control. He does not walk batters, which I love, and you should if you’re a handicapper because you don’t want to take chances with guys that are going to put men on base for free, and Urquidy does not do that. And the most guys that he’s walked in a game was four. And here’s this stat, he’s done it one time his entire career. It’s amazing what control this guy has and no one really talks about it.

On the flip side, you’ve got Dean Kramer, and Kramer really is the total opposite. He’s not a big strikeout guy where Urquidy is. And Dean Kramer gives up a lot of hits as well too. I think the Astros get the job done today. I think you’ll have Dusty will put a little bit better lineup out there today. They’re looking for win number 100 today, means a lot. They want to continue this role here. They want to continue to distance themselves from the New York Yankees, get that number one seed. And like I mentioned, it’s not out of the question that they could catch the Dodgers for the number one overall seat and have home field advantage for the World Series as well too.

So keep an eye on the lineups today. Altuve, remember got hit on the elbow a couple days ago. So he rested yesterday. Talk is that Altuve could be back today. That would be a big boost. Scott mentioned Julio Rodriguez for Seattle. You take away that top leadoff hitter, it just changes the lineup drastically here. So you want to make sure that Altuve is in the lineup, especially if you want to bet the Astros, because they really haven’t had a good substitute for him. They’ve tried Peña. That really hasn’t worked. But anyway, I think the Astros will be good today. Good price. I’ll take the Stros. Basewinner?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, it’s an interesting game for me in that you brought up Urquidy and his control and I just think it’s an interesting analysis because if you look at his BBK, which I like to look at, his average BBK is $0.25. But he’s had some starts where, and you mentioned that the most he’s given up in his career is four walks. But his most recent starts on the road, he gave up a walk against the Angels. He gave up two walks against Atlanta. He didn’t give up a walk against the White Sox, but two against Seattle. So I’m looking at his median over his last, it looks like about 12 starts on the road and he’s averaging one walk and only for strikeouts. So it’s a decent BBK but it doesn’t really equate to a good expected ERA and I think that has to do with his ground ball percentage as well. It’s a $0.39.

Anyway, long story short in the model, I have value on the Orioles here. And I’m not going to step in front of you on this one, TC. I think you know the Astros probably better than arguably any handicapper in the industry. So I’m going to tell you what I have it priced. I’ve got controversially priced at Baltimore minus $1.14, but I’m not going to step in front of you on this game. Like I said, I consider you a Houston Astro expert for a lot of reasons. So that’s my opinion on this one, TC.

TC Martin:

Scott?

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah. You mentioned he doesn’t put a lot of guys on base. And I went back and I looked at his last 14 road starts and he has got a $1.16 whip. I looked at his last 12 road starts and his team is nine and three in those road starts. So you’re right, you’ve got two different pitchers when it comes to Urquidy. You’ve got what he does at home, which isn’t good. You’ve got what he does on the road, which is for the most part been outstanding.

And you look at the last month and Dean Kramer’s got a hefty whip over his last four starts. It’s upwards of about $1.50, almost $1.50, not quite there. So he does put guys on base. Wanted to see the lineup a little bit later or the day before I got involved. TC, I’m going to root for your bet here, but for me it’s a lean on Houston. I mean, Baltimore’s doing their best to stay within striking distance, I guess. Seattle, they’re four games out. But the way Seattle is played right now, losing five of seven to the Angels and the A’s, they just know if they win they’ve got a shot, especially with Jay Rod sidelined.

So that’s what kept me off Baltimore. I know Houston’s got the overall record to play for as far as best record in major league baseball, and that kind of stuff. But we’ll see if Baltimore can keep it going. I don’t trust Kramer. I just don’t. He just puts too many guys on base for me. So it’s an opinion for me on Houston. I’ll be rooting for you tonight, TC.

TC Martin:

All right, so put me down for the Astros with Urquidy against the Astros tonight. Astros bounce back, hopefully laying $1.43 in this one. This one’s already ticked up a little bit last night. I believe the number’s right around $1.35 or so. So we see the money coming in already. All right. Let’s take a look at the San Francisco Giants and the Arizona Diamondbacks. It is Carlos Rodón going for the Giants and Tommy Boy Henry going for the Diamondbacks today. Giants $1.53 favorite. The total in this game, eight shaded towards the over at minus $1.15. Basewinner, what have you got?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I love the Diamondbacks, or sorry, I love the Giants here. Sorry guys. I’ve got it priced at minus $2.77. It’s gone from minus $1.37 to minus $1.53. And I really agree with the line movement. You’ve got a lot of things going here if you want to back the Giants. And we’ll start off with the starting pitching. I’ve got Rodón in the model 14th out of 150 pitcher. He’s got a 72 Basewinner number as opposed to Henry’s 147th out of 150 pitchers. You’d look at the location plus numbers for these guys. Rodón is pushing that top quartile at 69 percentile. Henry’s in the ninth percentile. Then if you take a look just at the Basewinner ERA, you’ve got Rodón at $2.84 and then Henry’s at $5.58. And I think the only thing you could say about Henry is that his first name is Tommy and that’s close to Tommy Boy.

I think that’s probably about all you can say about the hood. I mean, if you like that movie, which I really did like the Tommy Boy movie. And then let’s take a look at the other components because I think there’s an interesting comparison with the offenses and if you look just in the model, I’ve got them even. I’ve got Giants 13th in baseball, Diamondback 17th in baseball. $1.07, way to run projection number for the Giants, $1.05 for the Diamondbacks.

I think what’s interesting in this game is I’ve taken a look at plate discipline since August 1st and the Diamondbacks versus left-handed pitching, they’re at $0.233, which is, it’s actually third worst in baseball. And if you compare that to they usually have really good plate discipline $0.471 versus right-handed pitching. So I think that’s something to consider there just outside of the obvious starting pitching mismatch is that although the offenses might look good on paper or they might look equal on paper, you’re looking at Arizona who’s really struggled versus left-handed pitching in that plate discipline metrics. So for all those reasons, I’m going to go with the Giants here. I think that’s an affordable price to lay here based on the metrics in this game.

TC Martin:

Scott?

Scott Spreitzer:

I think I’m getting hungry man, because all I could think of when you mentioned Tommy Boy was Tommy Want Wingy and that’s all I can think of. I mean, that’s all I…

Anyway, back to the game. So yeah, I agree that the San Francisco’s the only way to go in this one if you’re going to jump in here. I like what Carlos Rodón has done. He had the blister issue last time out. If he’s okay and good to go, then he’s had his best month of the season in September. He’s gotten stronger and better basically as the season has progressed. A little concerned about the Giants and the way they’ve been struggling at the plate, however they did get right. And I’m hoping that maybe from our sake, that’s the catalyst of getting right against Colorado rather than the effect of Coors Field. I think they’ll be fine here though against Tommy Henry, and I do like San Francisco to get the job done. So I do like the first half of this parlay in this one.

TC Martin:

Basewinner, I agree with you. It seems like all things point to San Francisco in this game. The Giants are playing good baseball now. They’ve won four in a row. Definitely a pitching advantage for the Giants with Rodón against Tommy Henry, Tommy Boy as you like to say. But here’s my one thing that’s stuck in my mind here with Carlos Rodón. We know he’s a big strikeout guy, but I can’t figure out why he continuously is pulled early in games. I mean, usually when the fifth or sixth inning comes, Rodón has gone. And I can’t figure out what is going on with Gabe Kapler here and why he’s pulled so many times. He’s only gone past the sixth inning twice in his past 12 starts. That doesn’t make sense. He obviously is the Giants’ ace and I want him out there and I don’t want to really mess with his Giants’ bullpen.

I get it, The Giants’ bullpen is probably better than the Diamondbacks’ bullpen, but when you’re going to lay a price with San Francisco and you’ve got Rodón on the mound who’s fantastic, it scares me why he is pulled repeatedly, time after time, and he doesn’t really go past the sixth inning.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. It’s an interesting point, TC. And I think one of the things that the Giants do probably more or as much as any other team in baseball arguably, is their heavy use of analytics. I’m sure the analytics say that Rodón can get to a certain pitch count and then he’s gone. And so what happens with Rodón is he’s so heavy strikeout too, like hey, strikeouts take a lot of pitches to complete. He’s not getting a lot of first pitch contacts. So the combination of, I think the heavy analytics and their read on Rodón is that he gets worse if he goes over a certain amount of pitches. And then he’s got a real high strikeout percentage, which takes a lot of pitches. I think that goes into that thought.

But one of the things that I think is really important when you’re handicapping a situation like that, and you bring it up and it’s a good point is you take a look at these bullpens. And I think that San Francisco has a much better bullpen than Arizona. You look at that Sabre command chart, San Francisco sitting there 15th. Okay, that’s the middle of the pack, but Arizona’s 29th in baseball and those are important numbers for me to look at. So while I do agree with you that I don’t know if Rodón can go deep into the game, I’m comfortable with that Arizona, or with that San Francisco bullpen versus the Arizona bullpen in that particular comparison, TC.

TC Martin:

All right. We’ll lock Basewinner in for this one. So he’s taking these San Francisco Giants, putting them on a parlay in this one with the LA Dodgers a little bit. So he’s got that little West Coast parlay going with the Giants and the Dodgers. So we’ll root them on with that.

All right. Let’s take a look at the Mets and the A’s today. The Mets traveling to Oakland. They will send Chris Bassitt, the former Oakland A to the mound here today and Cole Irvin going for the athletics. The line in this game a heavy one for the Mets, lain $2.30 on the road. And the total in this game is seven minus $1.15 towards the over. Scott, what do you think?

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, you know what? I’m going to do the same thing I did last night. Obviously, different opponent for Oakland, but last night I ended up on Seattle minus the run and a half. Going to do the same thing here with the Mets. As far as tonight’s game is concerned, you’ve got Cole Irvin who has struggled of late. 6, 20, 80 [inaudible 00:27:20] his last seven starts. He’s given up eight homers in his last 43 innings pitch. That’s about a 1.7 earned runs per nine innings pitch to ratio. And the thing about Oakland, he gets them off to a tough start of late. Well, all of a sudden this team’s giving up 42 runs in those last seven starts, or six runs per game when Irvin’s taken the mound of late.

So I think the Mets are at a good spot here to do some damage at the plate. And Chris Bassitt, the former Oakland Athletic, goes to the mound. Fantastic $2.25 ERA, buck 16 whip in his last nine starts. His team’s eight and one in those starts. And seven of those eight wins have covered the run line. And by the way, when he does take the mound, like those last nine starts, he’s getting a decent amount of work. He’s not quite there at seven innings pitch per start, but he’s around six innings pitch per start. That’s not bad, six full. So I’ll take that on a Bassitt. I think the Mets will do damage to the plate. He’ll make it stand. The pit will be okay. And I like the Mets here minus a run and a half for my best bet today.

TC Martin:

And to your point with Cole Irvine, he’s given up four runs or more in five of his last seven starts. Two of those games were five runs and one was a nine run game. One thing to keep an eye on with the Mets, they’ve still got Marte who’s injured, a brand new [inaudible 00:28:35] as well too. But Mets are coming off that series where they beat Milwaukee two out of three games. They’re playing some great baseball. So can’t fault you at all in the return game for Chris Bassitt, and taking the Met and laying the run and a half here. Basewinner?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, this is a tough game for me guys, because I agree with a lot of what Scott said. But my model’s kicking out Mets minus $1.39, which would indicate value on the A’s. And I think it’s because I use a longer term timeframe in that starting pitcher evaluation. I used the last 17 game median. I’ve found that over the years that I’ve experimented with and done data studies on a lot of different combinations. And for me that’s the one I’m most comfortable with. I think that’s the most reliable moving forward. But it’s a situation where I look at my model and I listen to you guys talk and I totally disagree with the model. I would agree with what you guys say as opposed to the model, but that’s sometimes when you model baseball, you’re not going to agree with it all the time.

The one thing I can say about Irvine is his location plus number is actually really good. He’s in the 89th percentile there, but Bassitt’s pretty good as well in the 71st percentile. The other thing that’s in the back of my mind here as far as a run line plays is this stadium is just so dead. And I’m not talking about the lack of people that go there, I’m talking about the flight of the ball. And so it’s just such a dead stadium that I… Of all the stadiums to lay a run in, this would be the toughest one. But this Oakland offense, you’d think that maybe five runs that they scored yesterday, that’s the only five runs they’re going to get in the next three days, the way they performed at the-

Scott Spreitzer:

All in one inning too, right? I mean wasn’t it an all in one inning? When you’ve got to got a superior elite level team, I know that stadium’s dead, but it’s one of those things where I can see the Mets putting up six here, winning like 6-2, 6-3 type of game.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, and I can too. And even though I modeled it, my model says that there’s no value on the Mets. I can see where you’re going with it, Scott. So I’m going to root the play in and hopefully they can get it done for you.

TC Martin:

All right, put Scott down. He’s got the Mets on the run line today. Mets over the A’s. Going to lay $1.25 in that contest.

With the Cardinals today going against Andrew, Mr. Heaney for the Dodgers today to the line of this game is dollar 75 for the Dodgers. The total in this one is eight and $1.15 towards the oversight in this one. Basewinner, what have you got?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I really like the Dodgers here. I mean, Heaney, talk about the way I model things, I look at walks and strikeouts. And he’s just been really good all year long with those particular metrics. 40 strikeouts and only five walks in the last five games. So he really bears out well in the model. You look at Kentana and my basement or ERA is not very high on him, or it’s higher in a bad way. It’s $4.16. And the way I model this one is I’ve got the Dodgers at minus $2.36, so I think at minus $1.71, they’re getting good value. One of the things that I considered in this game too is St. Louis is very good versus lefthanded pitching. I have them at a $1.17, seventh in baseball. But the Dodgers, I actually have better versus lefthanded pitching in the model at $1.19. So they’re fourth in baseball.

So I think that the offenses kind of average out. I think we get a huge edge. I’ve got Heaney, and this is controversial to a lot of people, but his strikeouts and walks bear the rating. He’s third in baseball in the model and Canton at 90th. And then we get an edge I think in the bullpen too. I think this is an interesting comparison because we’re talking about St. Louis and the Dodgers both are going to be in the playoffs. The bullpen is such an important part of the playoffs. And if you look at the Sabre command chart, Dodgers overall second in baseball and St. Louis is 27th in baseball. You wouldn’t think that, but you take a look at St. Louis’s swinging strike percentage, this is their bullpen for the whole year. It’s the worst in baseball at $0.094. And I think that’s concerning. If you’re trying to bet St. Louis in the future’s market, I don’t think their bullpen is at the same level as the Dodgers bullpen.

So that goes into the handicap as well. So for all those reasons, I’m going to go with the Dodgers here, make it a part of that second parlay. It’s going to pay pretty good if these games can come in. Plus $1.74 is what the parlay will pay if it comes in.

TC Martin:

All right. Scott?

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, there must be something in the water in Anaheim because Andrew Heaney wasn’t doing this as a member of the Angels, gosh darn it. But his 13 starts, not his last 13, but his 13 starts this season, he’s allowed more than two earned runs. Just two times more than three earned runs only one time. As far as José Quentin is concerned, his nine starts with the Cardinals. I mean, he’s pitched quite well, but I’m wondering if there’s context with that pitching quite well as a Cardinal.

I just decided to go back and look to see who he was pitching against, which I always do for a few games, but I did in these nine starts. He’s faced the Cubbies. He faced what the Rockies twice, only one of those at Coors. He faced Arizona. Two starts against Cincinnati. A start against Washington, a start against Pittsburgh. Only once in these nine starts as he faced a good team. That was the Atlanta Braves. And give him credit, he pitched well against the Atlanta Braves. So I do think it’s important to add a little bit of context, because now you’ve got to face Mookie Betts and it just gets tougher and tougher after that. I mean, I love Mookie Betts. I don’t know if you guys saw the end of the game last night, but man, what a leadoff hitter to have. And he pinch hit, I believe it was last night, or maybe it was the night before. I think it was last night.

But anyway, so he did have a couple of decent outings against the Dodgers when he was with Pittsburgh. But here’s the thing, and so I was looking at all this stuff. And when I just started jumping into it, I’m thinking I might have a first five under here, and then I saw the first five total was four and a half. And then I came back and I said, “I’m concerned about Quintana in this particular start when he goes up against the Dodgers. And the fact that the Dodgers,” as Mark just said, “have real nice metrics and numbers against lefties.” And I thought, I can’t play this under the first five. Not going to play it, as you know me, a full game under.

And so I lean towards the Dodgers even at this price because like Mark, I made this. I didn’t make it as far above the actual line as Mark did, but I’m not that far off. I’m 10 cents below that for what I made my lines on this game. So I think the Dodgers are the way to go. And until Andrew Heaney has a bad start, I mean, my gosh, how could you go against this guy, especially at Chavez Ravine, especially with this lineup. So I like this parlay today and I like the Dodgers of the second half of that.

TC Martin:

Yep. Yeah, Scott, you nailed it. And I was going to say the exact same thing, what you said about Quintana’s starts in those last nine starts where Atlanta was the only team above 500 that he faced. And I go back to Heaney, it’s very similar to what I said with Rodón except Heaney’s not as good as Rodón. But again, this is a guy that will not be in the game past the fifth inning. He’s had these great numbers, these great strikeout numbers, he’s looked good. I don’t know why. He was a go against for me a lot when he was with the Angels. But you know that he’s not going to go deep into the game here. So that’s the only thing that scared me off of it. And I still can’t get past betting on Andrew Heaney. And maybe it’s wrong because his numbers are good this year. They’re great. But again, I don’t want to get into that dodger bullpen that early with middle relievers in the fifth or sixth or seventh inning. So that’s the only thing that scared me off. It does-

Scott Spreitzer:

You could do a little first five parlay.

TC Martin:

Yeah, exactly. Yeah, yeah. All right. Basewinner, we’re putting him down. So he’s got the Dodgers in this game as well too. So as part of the par par for Basewinner day looks good. He’s got the West Coast or the NL West parlay, the rivalry parlay, call it what you want, San Francisco and the Dodgers today. So good luck on that one, my man.

All right, let’s go to some questions here real quick here. I want to ask you guys about this one. We had a question where Amed Rosario have two or more hits today versus Washington. Now we’ve seen a big line boost in this one from plus 190 to plus 250. Amed Rosario, two hits or more. Scott?

Scott Spreitzer:

Who’s going from Miami? Oh, it’s Gray going for Washington. Excuse me, I meant Washington.

TC Martin:

Yeah, Josiah Gray? Yes.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, so staying away from it, I just didn’t even handicap that prop. I’m not saying it’s not a good one, I’m just staying away from it.

TC Martin:

Yeah. We’ve seen an MLB odds boosted BetUS today on this game on.

Scott Spreitzer:

You know why? I’ll tell you real quick why I stayed away from the game altogether is as of about an hour ago, Miami hadn’t decided on the starting pitcher.

TC Martin:

Correct.

Scott Spreitzer:

So I didn’t even jump into the game yet. So it might be a good play. I just can’t give you a solid answer on that.

TC Martin:

Rosario versus Josiah Gray. What do you think there, Basewinner?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, some of these props, to really do them do well, you’ve got to model them separately. And I think that as handicappers, we have some time constraints and I think that there’s some people that can do good on the props. I think the props to focus on would be probably strikeout props though, because that number is so good. It stabilizes quickly. It correlates year to year. I would concentrate on those, because you’re paying more of a premium to play these props.

So for me, there’s so many things to look at, just trying to decide the total or the side. And so I used to do total base props, but I thought the juice was not worth it to be quite honest. But I think that my gut tells me that the strikeout props, I think you could be profitable on if you had the right modeling involved on that. I went off on a tangent. I really didn’t answer your question because I really don’t look at it. And I think that there’s so many different ways you can play games outside of these props that outside of the strikeout prop, I would just pass on those things personally.

Scott Spreitzer:

Like Mark said, it’s such a different handicap. And I’ve got no problem with guys who play props. It just takes so much time away from what I’m trying to do, what Mark is trying to do, TC, what you’re doing. And I’ll tell you, I’ve got a question just in NFL, carrying it over there. Do you get the survival pools? No, I don’t. That’s a completely time consuming issue, because you’re looking at who teams have to play down the road, who the opposition might be playing in your contest and things like that. It just takes away for me, too much time. And I always say this, and we’re doing this for BetUS, which is obviously a book, but books aren’t going to offer something they think they’re going to get beat on too often. And so-

Mark Borchard:

Plus-

Scott Spreitzer:

Go ahead. I’m sorry.

Mark Borchard:

On this particular question, doesn’t Amed Rosario play for Cleveland?

Scott Spreitzer:

Well, when I saw Amed Rosario, I was confused a little bit. Yeah, I was like-

Mark Borchard:

I just like that [inaudible 00:39:59] created.

Scott Spreitzer:

It threw me off.

Mark Borchard:

It did, it threw me off. No, but you’re right though, Scott. And there’s different markets you can play. I put out the fulltime, halftime market with the Rays and the Astros. And sometimes you go in there, you see something and it’s, “Hey man, I’m going to play this market.” But there’s so much, Scott. You’re right about that. I agree with you.

Scott Spreitzer:

And I’m referencing props because everybody thinks of Super Bowl props. There’s 15 pages of props like at the Westgate here in Las Vegas, both front and back of each page. And I probably have five props bet for a Super Bowl on average, sometimes less. And so yeah, they’re out there. You could beat them at times, but I just don’t want to devote that amount of time. I think what Mark said about the strikeout props is not a bad way to go.

TC Martin:

Right. All right, guys. Timmy The Tulip is asking about the brewers on the run line today, and that is the Brewers against the Reds. Any thoughts on that one, Basewinner?

Mark Borchard:

God, it’s so tasty to want to bet against Mike Minor. He’s so bad. But Lauer’s bad too. I think you’d go over here. I mean, how else can you? I got the 129th picture out 150 with Lauer. I’ve got 130 ninth with Minor. I’ve got to project at $12.7. I don’t know why I didn’t look at that myself. Maybe this was one of those games where there wasn’t a line on it last night when I was do doing my total analysis. I take a look at the weather. If it’s decent in Cincinnati, play the over there.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, I agree. I agree with that. And also, the only reason I didn’t jump in with the play on Lauer, just to go against Minor here is because we don’t know how long he’s going to go. We’ve talked about a couple of starting pitchers that might not be on the mound a long time. And he’s coming off the IL, and so we’ll see how long he goes in this game. But I think Mark’s play on the over is the way to go. Timmy Tulip and [inaudible 00:41:53] whole nine yards reference out of TC, Martin. I’m shocked.

Mark Borchard:

Did Timmy Two Shoes change his name to Timmy Tulip? Or do we have Timmy-

TC Martin:

I was wondering that yesterday. That’s the question. So I’m just going to throw it out there. Timmy, are you the Two Shoes or is Tulip a different alias, a different person altogether? Not one of my favorite movies, The Whole Nine Yards, Scott. Just-

Scott Spreitzer:

It was a little… Yeah.

TC Martin:

Yeah, exactly.

Scott Spreitzer:

Great acting by Rosanna Arquette though. If you-

Mark Borchard:

But what’s your opinion-

TC Martin:

Bruce Willis is our man though.

Mark Borchard:

But what’s your opinion on The Longest Yard TC?

TC Martin:

We don’t have enough time, okay, because my 10 second version is the remake should have never been made. Don’t insult my intelligence. Don’t insult Burt Reynolds, the directors, the 1974 classic. The Mean Machine should never be messed with. Adam Sandler, shame on you. Shame on everybody else that was involved with it.

Mark Borchard:

We could have a debate about that. I thought Nelly was good. Nellie the singer was great in that though. I thought he was awesome.

Scott Spreitzer:

I’m a huge Adam Sandler fan. I am a huge Adam Sandler fan, yet I couldn’t handle the remake.

TC Martin:

Thank you. Stick to hitting Golf Balls with a Hockey Stick with Bob Barker. Stick to that.

Scott Spreitzer:

That’s one of the best. That movie, that was great, Happy Gilmore. My gosh.

TC Martin:

[inaudible 00:43:08] But I agree with you guys with the over here, the elbow injury with Lauer. And again, I get the Brewers. Brewers are stumbling. They’re like the White Sox, forget about them. But they’re playing the red, so I can see where you might want to pull the trigger on the Brewers today. But Lauer with the elbow injury coming off and last time you got bombed, yeah, over makes a lot of sense. I agree with you guys with that one.

Okay. And let’s say White Sox versus Detroit today. No runs in the first inning, which you think that comes from Andreas.

Scott Spreitzer:

Well, three of the four wins for Gonzalez, or I should say for not Gonzalez, for Rodriguez in this game. Three of the four wins for Detroit in this series have come against Giolito. That scares me a little bit that they’re able to actually get to Giolito and then Gonzalez is bad on the road, or I keep saying Gonzalez, Rodriguez is not good in this spot. Oh, boy, that’s a tough one. Mark, I’m going to throw it at you now that I’m mixing names of starting pitchers. Looking at my sheet, I got Gonzalez right above Rodriguez is what happened to me on my notes. But yeah, three of their four wins have come against the White Sox win Giolito has pitched. So they found the sweet of elixir when he comes up and is on the mound, despite the fact that Detroit is so bad on offense this year. The White Sox though, I mean they can hit lefties.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, this is a tough game to have any kind of opinion on. I mean, I would say if I had to do it, I would play the no here. You’ve got Detroit 27th in baseball. You’ve got the White Sox 15th and baseball from an offensive standpoint. My numbers aren’t half bad on Giolito. I know this is controversial, but I have 61st in baseball. Both pitchers are above, or the base runner number is above average in a good way. So I’d say below average offense, above average pitchers. If you have to, and do you really have to? Play the no here. Yeah.

TC Martin:

Guys, let’s close out today with Ed’s question. I think it’s a pretty good one as well too. It’s a strategy question. So he likes the idea of the Giants, Dodgers parlay that you’re involved with, Basewinner and getting plus money on that. But he says, or is asking any consideration to play each one of these games straight or is the price too high for you at $1.60? I know Ed sounds like he’s leaning that he’d rather do two individual game straight bets here. Give us the thought process here.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, Ed, that’s a good question. I know Ed gets the chart overnight. And last night I didn’t have either of these games on the chart because there was no line on them. But if I had, I would’ve put them both out a separate place and as a parlay. I think the parlays probably a little bit better from a risk standpoint, but I wouldn’t be opposed to playing them both. And I probably personally will play them both. And I’ll probably play the parlay too. I think that if you’re getting value from a pricing standpoint, then you’ve got value on the straight bets, you’ve got value on the derivatives, you’ve got value on the parlay. So however you want to play it, even if you wanted to bet a run line parlay on both teams, it still would have value.

TC Martin:

Is there value on these two games individually, Scott?

Scott Spreitzer:

Well, the Dodgers game I’ve got priced 30 cents higher than the actual price sits. So for me, I don’t care if a game’s minus $2. If I make it minus two 50, there’s value on that minus $2. We’ve talked about this on previous shows. So I’m a little bit leery of San Francisco by themselves just because of a great point you made, TC, about Rodón potentially leaving this game, so by the fifth inning or sixth 30. That’s scary. But as far as the Dodges are concerned, I could see a standalone play on them tonight.

TC Martin:

All right. Appreciate the questions guys, as always. And remember, we are here Monday through Friday, 12 noon Eastern, 9:00 AM Pacific here. The MLB Show on BetUS TV, of course presented by America’s favorite sports book, BetUS. Let’s get to our best bets as we wrap things up here on this Friday, headed into a glorious sports weekend. And Scott Spreitzer is taking the New York Mets on the run line tonight in Oakland. Chris Bassitt going back to Oakland minus a run and a half laying $1.25. Let me ask you real quick, Scott, did you factor in the Bassitt factor against his old team?

Scott Spreitzer:

Not a lot, other than that he is familiar with the park. And it’s because of who the Oakland A’s are. I’m not going to detract from Bassitt on the mound of this game when you look at who the Oakland A’s are, what they’ve been most of the season. I know they’ve been a little bit better of late, but no, not too much.

TC Martin:

And the reason why I bring it up is-

Scott Spreitzer:

I will with certain pictures, with certain ex teams, but not necessarily this one.

TC Martin:

Right. Yeah. And the reason why I bring it up because I mean, sometimes you feel that a guy, okay, he wants stick it to his old team or he is familiar with those hitters. There’s a couple different angles there from that standpoint. An emotional angle as well too. And then you wonder, okay, well do those guys know what Bassitt stuff is like? So for some pitchers, especially if they’d been traded, they want to stick it to the other team. I’m not sure how Bassitt feels-

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, I just really want to stick it to Oakland. Exactly. It’s not like Oakland was in the race, and we’ve got to get rid of Bassitt so we can win a pennant. It wasn’t anything that’s just like, he’s probably grateful of what they did. Get hit a pennant race rather than being stuck in that-

Mark Borchard:

Pump it up. We’re going to RingCentral guys.

TC Martin:

That’s right. But it’s not Dollar Dog Night with the Miller Hot dogs.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, that was sad.

TC Martin:

By the way-

Mark Borchard:

I was watching that game a little bit, Scott, because I have a vested interest in Seattle. And yeah, there was nobody there. What an awful place to be. I mean-

Scott Spreitzer:

I was going to say when you have Dollar Hot Dog day at Oakland, do you just purchase 1,500 dogs and say that’s enough, if you’re managing the ballpark?

TC Martin:

But here’s the thing, with a lot of these parks, when they do the Dollar Dog days, they don’t give you the all beef dogs.

Scott Spreitzer:

Of course not, yeah.

TC Martin:

At least back in the day in Oakland, the Miller Hot Dogs, which are fantastic, all beef. Okay, they do it. I mean, it was two Tuesday nights they do that. And here’s the thing, Scott, I’m going to make an offer to you. So I had a loyal listener who’s out in Sacramento and was making the trek back there. He goes, “Do you want me to bring you anything back?” And I said, “Yes, bring me some Miller Hot Dogs.” So last night he sends me a picture, he’s at the grocery store with the Miller Hot Dogs and he goes, “Which one do you want?” He goes, “They’ve got Polish, they’ve got the all beef, they’ve got the Angus beef.” And I go, “Wait a minute, all I’ve ever had was the all beef.” I go, “Give me a pack of each. I’m inviting Scott Spreitzer over, I’m putting them on the grill.” Scott, you can have your choice, Polish, Angus or regular. You’ll like the Miller’s hot dog. Very underrated. Northern California special.

Scott Spreitzer:

One of each and you don’t even have to be there. I’ll take one.

Mark Borchard:

I’ll have to remember that, TC for the next show where I’m comparing three really good pitchers amongst each other, because all three options are great in my opinion.

TC Martin:

Yeah, yeah.

Scott Spreitzer:

I’ll be there. I’m going to be there and I’m taking you up on that. I’ve got to tell you real quickly, I went to Freddy’s yesterday. I held off the Chicago dog Jalapeno burger, fries, triple pack combination of 8,000 calories and left the Chicago dog off the list. So I’m jonesing for a couple of dogs here, TC. I’ll take you up on that.

TC Martin:

There you go. Bingo. Yeah. You and I were both at Freddy’s yesterday. I think we were in different locations.

Scott Spreitzer:

Different locations.

TC Martin:

But I had the exact same thing. I went with the jalapeno peppers. Yeah, there you go. Back to the best bets, Basewinner has got the parlay today with the Giants and the Dodgers parlay. So he’s on that. I’m on the Astros today against the Baltimore Orioles. Those are our best bets. Those are our food choices. These are music and movie references. You got it all today.

All right. Should we go out with a song today? Should that be a tradition on Friday for three non singers?

Scott Spreitzer:

As long as you don’t sing Friday’s.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. Why don’t you lead the Sweet Caroline verse and we can do the ba, ba, ba?

TC Martin:

I am not going to do Sweet Caroline. That one, it’s not one of my favorites. And that was Boston. That was last week.

Scott Spreitzer:

Okay.

TC Martin:

There you go.

Mark Borchard:

I thought that would be a good tradition, but I guess you don’t.

TC Martin:

Yeah. You know, Basewinner, I will sign off. And what you can do, you can end it on that way if you’d like. There you go. How’s that? For Scott Spreitzer, for the Basewinner, TC Martin? I’d give you a little wrap or a little rhyme or a little something, but I don’t know.

Mark Borchard:

(singing)

TC Martin:

(singing)

Mark Borchard:

There we go. At least Scott did it. Come on, TC.

TC Martin:

(Singing) [inaudible 00:51:39] enthusiastic.

Scott Spreitzer:

I thought Basewinner was going to go on the nightmare walking, psychopath talking. I honestly thought-

TC Martin:

No good. No good. No good.

Scott Spreitzer:

See you guys later.

TC Martin:

We’re out of here. MLB Show, BetUS TV. We’ll see you next week. Good luck.