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MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Baseball Betting Odds [Monday August 1]

MLB Picks & Best Odds for Monday August 1

Scott Spreitzer:

How’s going everybody? Welcome to August. Welcome to BetUS TV, the baseball show. I’m Scott Spreitzer here, filling in for the vacationing T.C. Martin who I saw was down in Houston over the weekend. Imagine that. He was at a Houston Astros game. He never talks about the Astros, but he was having a great time enjoy the games, enjoying the festivities before and after the games. We’ve got Mark “Basewinner” Borchard with us. We’ve got Jeff Nadu with us. Couple of the great cappers who are going to talk about a few games. Short card today, guys, but it’s kind of juicy. I mean, we got five games to talk about, which is quite a bit considering how short this card is, but we’re going to jump into all that in just a minute, but we’re at what, about 24 plus hours away from the trade deadline.

One bit of advice I gave to folks who asked over the weekend, I said, man, be careful. Don’t go firing away too much until that dust settles. You don’t want to be caught with a big wager on a side that changes their look or roster or on a total for that matter an hour before the game starts. And guys, we didn’t see any huge moves yet. There were a couple mark over the weekend. The Rays went out and got David Paralta from the Dbacks. Mariners were added again. They picked up Louis Castillo on a trade with the Red’s. Biggest name to switch location so far heading into Monday. And we’re going to see some big moves, I would guess over the next 24 hours. What are your thoughts on the Mariners picking up Castillo? They just lost J-Rod for a little bit, but Castillo, not a bad pickup.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, no, he’s really been on. And I mentioned a couple shows ago that I was on McClannahan when he faced Castillo in Cincinnati. And there was a stretch in the game where Castillo was, I mean, literally unhittable and you just were just begging, can this guy just go over his pitch count? Because I was on Tampa Bay to get him out of the game. So I think it’s a good pickup for Seattle. I think that the J-Rod thing is, I don’t know, really tough for that Seattle lineup. I mean, I don’t think there’s any argument about it at this point. He’s the AL rookie of the year. And I think that he even provides more of a spark that lineup than his numbers, the math would indicate because I think that has some synergy on the rest of the lineup. And I know it’s weird for a guy who’s really handicaps specifically with numbers to say that, but I really kind of notice, and I watch a lot of Seattle.

I really kind of notice the body language for the Seattle batters changes. And they almost looked defeated this… And they got one from the Astros on Saturday night, they were in that game yesterday. They could have got that one. It could have been three out of four versus the Astros, but the body language was, it almost looked like they were defeated. So it’ll be interesting to see what they do against New York. But yeah, for me, it looks like he’s going to be out of the lineup. They’re taking extra precaution with this. So I think it’s going to be five to six days and then he’ll be back in.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, it looks like what 10-day DL, but just the good news is that the x-rays came back negative and Jeff, he was actually swinging on an inside pitch or maybe it was a defensive swing. I only did see it once or twice on the replay and got whacked there on the wrist. And so he did suffer the hand injury, but the good news is it wasn’t a break. So you got J-Rod. As mark mentioned, he is at the top of the batting order. He is 18 dingers, he’s 57 ribbies and 860 OPS. That OPS is top 35 in baseball. And I’ve seen that too out of Seattle. They just look like they’re deflated at times, Jeff and that bothers me a little bit for a team that’s right there in the wild card mix. Your thoughts about that? Well, also about these Juan Soto sweepstakes, they’re saying it’s the Cardinals, the Dodgers or the Padres. Are you buying or selling on that particular thought that it’s one of those three teams that could land Soto?

Jeff Nadu:

Well, I wonder if the Mariners will revert to what the Phillies did after they lost Bryce Harper. They seemed like they were just out of it offensively. And take it for someone that didn’t know who Julio Rodriguez was a month ago, quite frankly. I’ve said that before. I didn’t know who the hell he was. Kid’s been incredible. Good for him. They’re going to have to obviously pick up the slack. That’s a lineup that I know Mark likes him a little bit more than maybe me or other people, but this is going to be the mark of a team. How badly do you want it? How badly do you want to perform? They have to obviously pick up the slack, but I do want to talk about what you’re talking about. Look, I don’t think Juan Soto will be moved. I think that’ll be after the season.

But again, we see that San Diego is now a place people want to go. Is it the greatest? Are they the greatest franchise? No. Do they win much? No, but look, they were able to land Machado. It’s a place people want to go. Who the hell does not want to live in San Diego? And that’s one thing they have that a Philadelphia doesn’t have or somewhere else doesn’t have. They have that weather. They have that lifestyle. I really want to talk a little bit though about Rendon last night. Rendon was magnificent and Rendon has really made it clear that he is a very big trade commodity. I think if you’re the New York Yankees, you have to make that happen. You look it over the last five games, 46 strikeouts. He has 158 strikes on the season. The left, he’s been terrific. And there are many things that people want when you’re on these teams, but a lefty is coveted in a lot of these markets.

I think he gets moved and I think Yankees at the beat towards the top of the list, I just don’t know if their rotation right now can match. In fact, I know it can’t match Houston and maybe other teams. So I’m going to be interested seeing where Rendon goes. And by the way, guys, I’ll keep saying this, any good pitcher that faces the Cubs, you got to take the over strikeouts. This Cubs team strikes out so much and they are just useless against Burns and Rendon and these kind of guys.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah. And I think Rendon, like you said, I think he’s pitched his last outing for San Francisco. He even mentioned that last night after the game, the announcer is on the Giants broadcaster talking about it likely being his last start for the most part. It wasn’t that long ago when this team was being talked about acquiring decent players, of course, before the trade deadline, but they’re just not what they were last year. And we thought the Giants, everybody thought the Giants obviously won many more games than they should have last year. They don’t have that kind of roster to put out those kind of wins. And we did think there’d be some regression, but basically being right at 500, a little bit of a surprise for me. I thought there’d be a few games. I thought this was like an 86-87 win team, which they could still get there. But they’re right at 50-50 as we speak. Mark, anything over the weekend that you saw that you wanted to talk about a little bit this morning?

Mark Borchard:

Well, I think be careful that we don’t overreact. Yesterday I was on the Yankees and Clay Holmes blows the safe. And do we say that Clay Holmes is a bad pitcher? I don’t think so. I think that he was having problems locating. That’s a tough… They say that Clay Holmes should throw the ball down the middle, because he’s got so much movement that it’s not going to end up down the middle, it’s going to end up on the corner. So he was having problems locating. And you got to just, I think sometimes tip your hat to the other team. And Salvador Perez is a professional hitter and he took advantage of Clay Holmes and it really, Scott, it sucked for me because I was on the Yankees and it took a three.

I almost was three and 0. And how much have you said that in your handicapping life? So they took the win away from me and ended up being a break even day. But I think that that’s what we need to be careful on is that we don’t overreact to one game or a series of games. But I think that that’s very apparent in that Yankees game, because you think the Yankees would’ve had that game locked down six to four versus the Royals and they ended up getting beat.

Jeff Nadu:

But remember, this is a thing and this is a month ago, we’re looking at them and saying, this is a very backable bullpen. We liked them. They’re strong. They’re one of the best in baseball, but all of a sudden Michael King is gone. I mean, Aroldis Chapman looks like a shell of where he once was. I think Clay’s still very good. But look again, no offense, but I don’t want it back Jonathan Loáisiga, Wandy Peralta, guys like that. I mean, this bullpen went from being locked down to punchy, quite honestly.

Scott Spreitzer:

And you know what? I’ve been doing this show now for about six weeks with you guys. And I know Jeff, you’ve been talking about it since the first time that I jumped on a show with you about this Yankees bullpen and you didn’t trust him and you moved into backing Houston as far as what’s going to happen over the course of the rest of the season, couple of teams that are obviously buy-in for that number one record in the American League to get that home field advantage. Right now, the Yankees barely ahead, but ahead in the standings. Real quick note, I thought it was pretty cool this weekend, really had nothing to do with betting over the weekend. But again, it’s something to keep an eye on throughout the rest of the season, Reid Detmers who was fortunate to get a no-no, a no hitter earlier this season in a weird game where he struck out one batter in nine innings, 27 outs and strikes out one guy.

He gets knocked down to the minors. Instead of sulking, the young guy goes out there and starts studying film, changes his arm location, his release, all that kind of stuff. Comes back into the majors, he’s been fantastic ever since. Well, guess what he did. He throws an immaculate inning in yesterday’s game, which became the first pitcher in baseball seven years to have a no hitter and an immaculate inning in the same season. Now, they go on to lose because they’re bullpen as Jeff Nadu would say, sucks, no two ways about it. They stink on ice. But just something to think about when it comes to betting the Angels. I was at times betting against them early in the season, first five and also against their bullpen once they started stinking it up. But I won’t bet against Reid Detmers in the first five. I’ll look to play against him full game because that bullpen, when I take my chances with him. But guys, we got five games to talk about.

We’ll jump into it here in a second. Quick recap. Let’s check out where the best bets are so far through the month of July for the guys at BetUS TV. You can see the records right there. Had a nice two team parlay on Friday that hit to get within striking distance of even money and getting back on the positive side and we’ll look to get a winning day out of these five plays. Let’s get started guys.

Jeff Nadu:

Me and Mark, it’s a new month. Me and mark have to pick it up and I think we will.

Mark Borchard:

I got to tell you something, Scott. I couldn’t get that extra… I had the over in the Washington-St. Louis on Friday night. We couldn’t get that extra run. And it was at eight runs, I think, after six. So there was opportunity to do it. And then Washington bullpen just locks it down. And they’ve been decent the last probably 14 days, which is surprising, but the next day, so this is the punchline to the story. Next day, I go ahead and bet it over and it’s nipping tuck and they end up going over the total that I’m like, woo hoo, I hit the bet. And then I look and it was a pitching change. So I didn’t hit the bet. So it’s like this rubbing salt into the wounds on that one. I thought that was pretty comic. Literally, for an hour I was like, “Hey, that bet’s won.” Then I go check my account. I’m like, “What happened? Oh, they changed from Fedi to Espino.” Has that ever happened to you?

Scott Spreitzer:

Oh yeah. You know what’s funny? A lot of books. It started in 2020, right after baseball had the big delay until the start of the season into July, I believe it was, mid or late July. And a lot of the books in Nevada went to action. So there’s still a couple that’ll let you name the pitchers, but most of them are action. Once you made the bet or make the bet you’re definitely stuck with that play, which is not what I like. I’m a guy who likes to name pitchers. I don’t know about you guys. But when I handicap a game, I want to know who I got going in the game. And if the pitcher is removed from that start or scratched, I want to start over and drop that bet. So again, a lot of books have gone that way and have stayed that way over the last two years in the state of Nevada, which is disappointing. I do like to name pitchers.

Jeff Nadu:

I will say one thing and this goes with just the irritation sometimes that this sport will give you. Jose Quintana. Look, you back the Pirates, you have to expect stupid things are going to happen, but you figure this is the issue with betting full game sometimes. I mean, first five, it would’ve been a winner. Quintana was good. Bullpen comes in, blows a two-nothing lead and they lose four-two. I mean, that’s just what teams like the Pirates do. And I guess when you get down and be teams like that, you have to realize that that’s not going to happen with good teams. And with teams like that, it does. It just gets frustrating because I thought the pirates was the right play there and just irritating.

Scott Spreitzer:

Well, we look like we had a good shot at a nice three of those sweep on Friday. So as Mark said, almost 3 and 0, it wasn’t that far. I thought both of you guys were going to cash too. And it’s just one of those things where major league baseball nowadays. It’s like, I don’t know if you guys have seen the numbers, but I think it’s been about three or four years now going back about four years where $2 and higher favorites are cleaning up. I mean, just cleaning up. And we saw TC during the course of his run when he was hot, just playing $2 above favorites and they were cashing daily.

Now when they do start to lose a couple, obviously your bankroll or your units, one can take a hit, but this is three or four years now where these $2 favorites have just been. It’s just so different and opposite, everything that we’ve learned over the years, that we’ve all been in this business. I know, Mark and I are a bit older than you, Jeff, but it hasn’t been that long where I can remember 2013, 2014, the same thing was going on where $2 favorites were starting to catch.

Jeff Nadu:

Well, I think it’s just something I’ve noticed in sports in general. Scott, I know we’ve all heard the term Mark Sharp money, that kind of thing. And I remember there were times five, six years ago where they would throw out lines and it would really, you’d have a flip game basically. And you’d see a pitcher that really shouldn’t be a flip against a good team. Those teams are winning a lot of the time, but I’ve noticed in sports, NFL, it seems like a lot of favorites win now. A lot of the square betters are coming in. There were seasons recently where that teams happen regularly. It’s a lot tougher. Baseball’s bad teams are really bad. They don’t win a lot of games. They don’t jump out and win. The bad teams are just bad. And I don’t know if that seemingly people understand what I’m saying, but it seems like you’re saying a lot of these favorites are just cleaning up and taking the easy way. And that’s the way you win nowadays, I guess.

Mark Borchard:

Scott, you hit the nail on the head because I just did a quick search. Killer Sports has the sports database back online. So that’s cool. You guys ever do sports database, Killer Sports has it up and running. But the season since 2019 line less than minus 200, the favorite is 841 and 277 plus 5.4 return on investment. So plus 15,207 on $100 bet. So the math supports exactly your premise on that. And gosh, I wish it were that easy, but it’s a big sample side. That’s a thousand games, like 1,100 games. So what do you do? Because you’re right, it goes against what we’ve been told our whole handicapping careers.

Scott Spreitzer:

I know what I don’t do guys. I don’t bet big dogs. I just don’t do it anymore in baseball. If you’re talking about a team of $2 or higher, I just stay away from those underdogs. I probably had one all season where I’ve had a dog that was higher than 180.

Jeff Nadu:

Hey, Scott, let me ask you something. I mean, you’ve been doing this longer than I have, but in the time that I’ve done this, even just over the last five years, I’ve realized it is becoming abundantly clear that betting pro sports is particularly difficult. I mean, it’s much more difficult. It’s much harder. In college, I’ve always found it to be a lot easier personally. I’m not saying that betting on pros is completely impossible, but baseball’s really the only one that I still bet. NFL, I think is very difficult. The NBA is very difficult. I just find it a lot tougher. I think it’s a lot harder to be.

Scott Spreitzer:

You know what work for me? I mean, first of all, I had a bettor who’s now I’m going to say he’s 82, 83 years old now who took me under his wing when we first met in 1995, when I was 28 years old. And first thing he did was he taught me to make numbers a week in advance in football. So for week nine, I’m making those numbers. After the week, seven games are played. I’m not waiting to see what happens in week eight. And it keeps you away from overreacting to what a team just did. Instead, you’re reacting to what they did over the course of an entire season. That was a phenomenal help, no doubt about it. But also I’ve gone from, I was probably 70% match ups in the NBA, in the NFL, for example, early in my betting career in 30% situations, I’m 80%, 85% situational now.

Just had a terrific NBA season and it was 85% situational. And in the NBA, I think you have to be, especially because you got so many nights off, player management or game management, whatever they call it, that you end up having to really look into just situations. And I do the same in the NFL match ups because of that point spread, that almighty point spread. Match ups mean very little to me compared to what it did just 15 years ago. So those are the biggest differences that’s helped me out. But anyway, guys, let’s talk some baseball. We got five games to talk about.

Folks, don’t forget. You can ask questions on any games or anything else at the end of the show, but let’s first talk about the Mets and the Nationals where the Mets are about a 230 favorite. The total on that one is 8 and a half minus 110, either way. Jeff and I both have some serious thoughts on this one. And let’s start with you, Jeff. We look at the battle between Scherzer and Corbin, not exactly a great year for Mr. Patrick Corbin. Your thoughts on this particular outing.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I mean, I think over this sample size, I think it’s hard to find a pitcher worse than Patrick Corbin this season in baseball. I mean, first, a guy that has 21 starts. I mean, this guy’s been atrocious. And May, June were bad, but July’s been even worse. You look at this guy in July. I mean, 23 innings. Opponents are in 370 off of him. He’s got a whip of two. He’s just a disaster. He’s got an ERA at eight. It seems like every night he gives up five, six runs. This guy’s bad. You look at his numbers against the Mets, particularly against this lineup. He’s given up 14 home runs as far as on this roster. That’s a lot of home runs to give up. He’s just not someone I want to back. He’s someone I want to fade quite frankly.

And again, this has been a long season form. It’s very rare that he pitches well. I’m going to just bank on the fact that he doesn’t pitch well here. And again, last four starts, 10.80 ERA, 2.35 WHIP. That’s hard to do. Look, 2018, this guy was an All Star. It has been a complete descend south for Patrick Corbin. Throw in the fact there’s a bad bullpen with… And look, I know maybe they’ve been a bit better lately, but we all know they’re going to move Juan Soto at some point. This team is, I think 20 games under 500 more than that. I think maybe even higher than that. I’ll lay the four and a half runs here. I think the fact that I’m getting four and a half runs, give me it over four and a half. Just a great Mets lineup. Shouldn’t have any trouble getting Corbin a guy they beat up.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah. It’s funny, Mark because I’m looking at this game and I was talking with my little group last night. There’s about four or five of us that are always texting back and forth or doing conference calls when we handicapped games. And now first of all, I’m surprised. I mean, that shows you how bad Washington is that we still get to bet against Corbin if we want to. And he’s obviously one of those guys you either bet against, or you stay away from the game as far as the sides are concerned. And one of the guys on the phone call said, “Well, he is a little bit better at home.” He kind of said, tug in cheek. “He is a little bit better at home than he is on the road.” I’m like, “Yeah. Well, it’s kind of like saying the Mets are a little bit better at home than they are on the road. 19 and 30 versus 16 and 38.”

Jeff, he’s locking in on this one with over four and a half, Jeff on the team total for the New York Mets. And I’m going to come in right here and be on the Mets. My best bet for today, the Mets minus will run at a half laying a 140 on this one. But Mark, I wanted to get your thoughts because Washington, I think in 17 defeats with Corbin on the bound out of those 17 defeats, they’ve covered the run line just three times. And then on the flip side, you’ve got the Mets in nine wins with [inaudible 00:20:58] on the bound. They’ve covered the run line seven times. And I don’t always laying the run line, but I feel a smidge better when that run line is a team that’s on the road. I get that ninth inning at bet, no matter what.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. When you look at something like this and we just talked about laying minus 200 and how it’s been profitable. And it’s really hard, I think in sports betting to find a profitable just when you blanket bet this situation that has a sample size that’s worth anything. And so we have this sample size, that’s over a thousand games where you’re winning money, just looking at the favorites. And you look at this game, I’m just trying to make a case for Corbin and it’s really hard to do. And I honestly can’t do it. I’m with you guys. I’ve got a price at minus 216. So just from a strict pricing standpoint, I don’t really see a lot of value in the game, but I can’t go again. I’m looking at Corbin like, okay, he went seven innings against Miami.

He went six against the Braves, but his July numbers, 15.4% median K Rate, seven point for the Walk Rate’s good. I guess 7.4% walk rate. But he’s not getting strikeouts. He’s getting hit pretty hard. It’s hard to make a case for him other than maybe a squirrel finds a nut every once in a while. But that’s a hard premise to back the other side. So my question to you, Scott is how would you play Washington here? I guess you’re just looking for like, “Hey, I’m just a dog player and I’m going to play this dog here.”

Jeff Nadu:

Well, I think if you’re going to play Washington, you’d just play the over because you’re just going to hope they score some runs and Corbin’s going to give them up. Listen, I don’t know if Corbin’s [inaudible 00:22:52]. I was fading [inaudible 00:22:53] every start he had, but I think he’s getting close. I mean, he’s… It’s weird though, because you look at his game log, he actually pitched pretty well against the Mets this year. I think he shot them out one game or game at one run and then another game he gave up two. I just don’t think lightning get striked three times, but I think the only way you back the Nationals would be just play the over and hope they score three or four runs.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, I agree with that. I always try to find reasons to back both starting pitchers and both teams and all that kind of stuff and then weigh it out after that. And the Mets are nine and four ensures there’s 13 starts, but the four losses had nothing to do with Scherzer pitching poorly. Those four losses that the Mets suffered with him on the bound, he allowed 101 in two runs in those four losses. And that means that in all likelihood, if Washington’s going to win this baseball game, Corbin’s going to have to have his best start of the year or maybe his second best start of the year that Jeff mentioned how he started a one game earlier. But the bottom line is, is that if they’re going to win this baseball game, are they going to be able to shut this team down with Corbin on the hill?

And then that bullpen come in and I just don’t think they do. I like Jeff’s team total over. And again, like I said, I locked in with the Mets run in the half minus 140. Mark, let’s stick with you. Arizona’s at Cleveland. The Guardians are laying a price in this one, about 155. As you see on your screen, the total is nine minus 115 on over, your pitching match of Davies going for the Arizona Diamondbacks, Quantrill going for the Guardians. Mark, your thoughts on this one. I know you’re looking to do something with this contest.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I’m going to play the over in the first five. I mean, I’m not a big fan on either pitcher. I’ve got Quantrill is 131st out of 150 starters, a 120 run number, which means he’s 20% worse than average as far as allowing runs. And Davies, I have at a 111 run number. I don’t have him in the 150 because I guess he’s a spot starter. I mean, this is how desperate Arizona is for pitching. One of the things that I wanted to talk about, Cal Quantrill, that’s kind of a tongue tire there, but we just spent a decent amount of time talking about Patrick Corbin’s numbers and how bad he’s been. But if you look at Cal Quantrill’s number, there it goes again, he’s actually been worse. He’s got a 16%. This is his year to date numbers, 16% median strikeout rate and an 8% walk rate, which is worse.

And I think that one of the things that was surprising, I talked about this on the show the other day is Arizona’s isolated power on the road is third and baseball. I thought that was super surprising. And then if you look at Cleveland’s plate discipline at home, they’re number one in baseball in walks divided by strikeout. So a really disciplined team against the pitcher. And now, Davies makes his living, trying to paint the corner and get that ball right there. And that’s how he makes his living. And so the only thing that concerns me is I don’t know who the umpire is. I hope we don’t get Bill Miller will give him those pitches. I hope we get a guy who’s either neutral or a batter or friendly umpire. Unfortunately we don’t know that at this time because we don’t know the umpires until probably two hours before the game, but a lot of the decent hitting numbers for both teams situationally and in bad starting pitching numbers, I think over five’s a decent play here for the first five, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

Jeff, thoughts on this one?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I mean, I have no issue with it. Quantrill’s a mess. Davies just kind of an average middle of the road guy. Arizona’s offense has been better. Look, I’ve said before, if you would’ve told me this team, look, they’re not really as close to 500 as they were, but you’ve talked about it. Lovullo’s done a nice job. His lineup has a bunch of just young guys in it, not a lot of success and they’ve actually been okay for large parts of the season. Cleveland’s offense has been middle of the road. Both these groups, four and a half runs a game. That’s what they’re going to do. Again, I think for Mark, he obviously is breaking it down to umps. And look, generally when you have those guys that the goal is to hit the corners. Look, I’ll just bank on them that they don’t hit the corners. Okay, good pitchers will. I’m not just going to bank that don’t. There’s a little room for error here, but both these pitchers, I think if they just do the norm that the over should hit.

Scott Spreitzer:

Face winner with the first of three of his best bets for Monday, he’s playing over Arizona, Cleveland in the first five innings in that one. Here’s another one, Mark. Happens to be looking at Jeff. It’s the Baltimore Orioles at the Texas Rangers. You’ll see that the Rangers laying 155, the total eight. And listen, the Orioles and Rangers kicking off this series. The Orioles are three games out in the west in the wildcard race and look to stick around for a while. John Gray has been strong at home while Spenser Watkins putting up decent numbers of late. Your thoughts on this. We’ll start with you, Mark since this is one of your best bets.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I’m going to take the Rangers, your Texas Rangers on the five inning line and it’s priced up, I mean. So that shows you that the odds makers respect this Texas team, at least John Gray. It’s at minus 160. And I think it’s worth laying that price. I’ve got the game on the five inning line. I’ve got it priced at minus 288 for the Rangers. And it’s just a huge disparity in the starting pitching. I’ve got Gray. He’s my 47th best pitcher in baseball. He’s got an 84, a tidy 84 run suppression number. And then if you look at Spenser Watkins, he’s got a 131 run suppression number. So 31% worse than average. He’s 146 out of 150 pitchers. And if you just take a look at the base winner era, just from an era standpoint, and this takes just strikeout percentage, walk percentage and ground ball percentage. John Gray, 3.42 for the season, Spenser Watkins 5.43.

So we get over a two run difference with the starting pitching. And you got to ask yourself, is this offense for Baltimore that Good? And I don’t see it. I see the better offense being the Texas Rangers. So we get a huge advantage with the pitcher, a huge advantage with the Texas Rangers offense. And I think that the mark is a little bit infatuated with Baltimore. I think they’ve overachieved all season. One thing about the Baltimore team though, they are seventh. If you look at their away relief, K minus BB number, which I think that’s a pretty fair number to give you just a quick and dirty evaluation of a bullpen. And they’re eighth in baseball in that number. So I thought that was an interesting number. That’s one of the reasons I didn’t want to play it on the full game. I’ll take Johnny Grave versus Spenser Watkins, head to head, mano a mano. And I’ll lay the sauce here with the Rangers on the first five.

Scott Spreitzer:

Jeff, I’m looking at it. And I totally agree that John Gray has been tremendous at home this season. And Baltimore is not likely to knock the cover off the ball against a guy like John Gray. At the same time though, I’m a little concerned with the way Texas bats at home in this position against righties in the month of July, they’ve been a little bit off. And Spenser Watkins, I mean, let’s give the guy credit, which I didn’t think we would be when he first started throwing baseball games. Earlier this year, I was watching some of his games and I’m like, this is going to be a guy I’m going to be going against all season. But his last five starts have been pretty solid. Jeff, your thoughts?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. So weird thing about Watkins. There’s two weird things about Watkins, the way he spells his first name, which is very weird. I mean, Spenser with an S is odd in the middle. As far as on the road, he’s been effective, which you normally, generally at home pitchers are effective, but he’s been effective. I played under eight here, seven and a half now so it’s not a play on this show, but I played under eight. As Mark alluded to, John Gray’s been fantastic. And I think the comment he made at the beginning about the numbers 155 with John Gray. That’s not a norm for Texas. They’re not laying 155. And I think that’s a great point to show that this is a lot of respect for John Gray. We all know a Baltimore’s been lovable in the market. People like this team. They like the Cleveland Indians feel from major league.

They’re going to be this team that turns it around and they don’t have a lot of talent, but they’re figuring it out. Look, in the end, they’re a pretty bad team. They may have guys move. Mancini might be gone. So I think this is a team that’s just a little overvalued in the market. I thought the under looked good just because of the two starting pitchers that are splits. And both these bullpens are particularly good. I remember four or five years ago, Texas’s bullpen was the disgrace. It was one of the worst in baseball. They had Matt Bush pitching and all these other guys. Yeah, I like the under, but I also like the 155. I think it’s clear in showing us that Texas is the play in this game.

Scott Spreitzer:

I actually like the under the first five innings and I know about the bullpens and especially Baltimore, Baltimore’s got a really good bullpen, but I lean under first five innings. So we’ll lock base winner in with a play on the Texas Rangers lane, 155. To the American League Central guys for our next game. It is the Royals at the Chicago White Sox heading to the south side. White Sox, as you see there, laying about 157. And Mark, you’re looking at the total, which is eight and a half and we’ll kick things off here, but with you again, because again, you’re in on a best bet, three best bets on a Monday’s card. Sox in the wild card raised just two and a half games back in that final spot. If they could win at home this year, they’d be leading the AL Central, but they have won six of their last seven at home. So they’re starting to take advantage of that home bump. It’ll be Keller for Casey Kopitzke on Monday night for the Southsiders. Your thoughts on this one.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. If you just take a look at… I’m going to play the over here, Scott, just to start off with my play. I got it last night. It was at eight and a half. It’s got up to nine, but I still think that there’s value on it. I think it’s like nine minus 105. And one of the things that I wanted to talk about, well, first of all, I’ve got the projection at 9.7 runs, but one of the things that I wanted to talk about with this game and it applies to the Cleveland game as well. And I’ve been talking about this, I don’t know, probably a few times this year about the humidor and it drying balls out in humid conditions. And I think that there’s two conditions that really are going to be helpful to the overplay in Cleveland and in Chicago. We’ve got weather that I think helpful from a hitting standpoint, high humidity in Cleveland, we got gusty winds in Chicago.

I’m showing that the wind gusts are going to be up to 20 miles per hour. It’s blowing out towards left center field. So I think that that’s going to help our handicap. I don’t have that in my model, but the fact that we get good weather conditions and the model likes it, I think that’s really awesome in this spot. And Kopech, I was really high on him to begin the year and he’s really dropped off. I mean, it’s surprising because I’ve had him rated a lot better than this. He’s 140th out of 150 pitchers in baseball. And so every time I see that, I got to of go inside the numbers. But if you look at his last four starts, and this just a base ERA rates, takes K percentage and walk percentage and ground ball percentage, he’s 5.57 ERAs against Texas, 7.66 against Baltimore, 5.39 against Minnesota, 6.03 versus Detroit.

You look at home, his K percentage 19%, his walk percentage 14.3%. It’s never good when those things are coming into each other. And then one of the things before we move on, I wanted to say this Kansas City bullpen has been really terrible from a standpoint of K minus BB last 60 days on the road. It’s 7.4%. It’s worse in baseball. And it’s 3% worse than the next lowest team, which is Colorado. So I like to use the K minus BB metric. I think it’s a really good one. And it’s saying that this Kansas City bullpen has been really awful. So I just think we have bad pitching, good weather conditions. And these teams, they’re not awful from a hitting standpoint. And I think the over here is what makes sense.

Scott Spreitzer:

I like the over too. And Jeff, Casey’s been much better in July road games against righties than they were the first three months of the season. And then as Mark was saying, Michael Kopech, I mean the walks, he has some serious control issues. I had to double check and then triple check, he’s got more walks at home than he does hits allowed. I mean, he’s just been a disaster sometimes with his control, Jeff.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I think the only attractive thing about this game from a money line standpoint is maybe you just take a shot with Kansas City because look, Brad Keller, say what you want, but I think in further inspection, what he’s done in July, isn’t that respectable quite honestly, because he did it twice against Detroit, LA. I mean, guess you’re just grass for straws and trying to talk nice about Brad Keller. I guess he’s just not as been as bad as he was all year, but Kopech, I don’t want to back either. I think the White Sox are what they are. They’re a 500 team and they’re going to be in and out of the wild card. And maybe that just goes to show you how bad some of those teams are.

But that being said, I don’t want to back this. I think he makes a great pledge just playing over, a lot of the time with weather and you got the wind working for you, two teams, at least from Kansas City from a bullpen standpoint suck. These pitchers aren’t good. Yeah. I have no issue with it. That’s a good play.

Scott Spreitzer:

Mark, anything else? So it look like-

Mark Borchard:

I’m surprised Jeff agrees with me twice now. Happy money, Jeff. I love it.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, I think you’ve made some cogent points here quite honestly. You try to talk nice about Brad Keller, but it’s just not in there. I don’t see it.

Scott Spreitzer:

He’s been so inconsistent. And as far as the White Sox, it’s time… I mean, they won’t do it this year, but it’s time for Tony La Russa to step down. It’s been time for a while. I haven’t liked a lot of what he’s done on the field. This team’s like five or six games below 500 at home. If they’re five games above 500, which is nothing special, they’re leading that division. They just haven’t been able to get it going at home. Although, as I mentioned lately, they’ve won six of the last seven at home, but yet they’re still five, six games below 500 overall fourth year.

Jeff Nadu:

This team reminds me a lot of the LA Chargers. Every year people pick the LA Chargers to win the Super Bowl or be very good. And seems like last year everyone was picking the White Sox. I heard a lot of people this year, “Oh, the White Sox, the White Sox.” Listen, when you have a lame duck coach, people don’t really realize. I’ve seen it for years. In college basketball, if you do not have a good coach, you will not win. It’s very simple. Obviously, pros a little different. It’s not as important, but sometimes these lame duck managers, they’re just losers, a lot of these guys. You look at the Angels, they had some lame duck coaches and managers. Tony La Russa should have been… Didn’t he walk with someone, I think a basis loaded situation this year, he’s just made some really odd decisions. And I think he’s just it’s time to move on if you’re Tony La Russa. Cut loose.

Scott Spreitzer:

I think he takes his quirkiness too seriously. It’s like there was a point in his career, I mean, obviously very well-read guy, all that kind of stuff. We haven’t really seen him making the right moves as a manager. I’m going to say what, since he was with the Cardinals a decade ago. And I think the game’s kind of passed him by, but I almost think he looks kind of like, well, he believes in this quirkiness thing that he’s got going, as you mentioned that we [inaudible 00:38:45].

Jeff Nadu:

Like Joe Maddon. He thinks he’s just smarter than everybody else and we’re going to do these goofy Zen meetings for the workout and that’s going to fix our issues. It’s like, wow.

Scott Spreitzer:

Probably the biggest difference between the two you just mentioned is I think the players kind of like Joe Maddon.

Jeff Nadu:

True.

Scott Spreitzer:

I think there’s not a lot of players who actually like Tony La Russa anymore, guys. I don’t know. But we’re locking in, Mark. Base winner with over nine in that battle between Casey and the White Sox. Jeff and I sound like we both agree with that over nine. And Mark surprised that Jeff spent with him for two games. So we’ll see how that turns out.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m happy. The only thing I really agree with him on is that Seattle’s offense is better. But other than that, I think Mark, look, he approaches the game way different than I do. But listen, I think we need confrontation. I’m so sick of watching some of these show… One of my issues with YouTube and all these different shows, so people do food reviews. Okay? I hate people that do food reviews. They like every food they eat. It’s like what? Sometimes the restaurant sucks, dude.

Mark Borchard:

You’re right. Yeah. You know what, Jeff? That’s a good point. I’ve got a friend that likes every restaurant that he goes to. So how can you get a take on how good the food is? This guy likes everything. So yeah. That’s a good point.

Jeff Nadu:

You can’t constantly carry water for people. Sometimes someone says something. Yeah, listen, you got to disagree. Like you said, Brad Keller’s a good pitcher. I’m saying, well, no, he’s not. What are we talking about?

Mark Borchard:

I think it’s good though, because it makes you challenge. He laughed at my Seattle evaluation. So I was like, okay, well, I’m going to go and look at deserved runs created on baseball perspectives. So just to double check my numbers, well, they look pretty good top on credits.

Jeff Nadu:

I was not laughing at the method of handicapping. I was just merely laughing at the fact that I [inaudible 00:40:37]. That’s just my opinion. But that said, there’s a reason. Guys, think about this. There’s a reason that people like Skip Bayless, Stephen A. Smith. There’s a reason they make millions of dollars a year talking about sports because they’re interesting. They’re controversial. Okay? I’m always fascinated by these companies that say, well, we don’t want anyone to rock the boat. Everyone that rocks the boat makes money. Anyone ever heard Howard Stern? He’s almost a billionaire because of it. So again, I mean, you got to have some disagreement occasionally. It’s fun.

Mark Borchard:

No, it’s good. And I can take it. I’m a big boy. So if you want to laugh at me, I’ll go triple deep with you. I’ll go deserve on created baseball prospectus and be like-

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t even know what that means.

Mark Borchard:

… I’m not that far off.

Jeff Nadu:

But it sounds anytime you mention prospectus, I think you have to have some respect for that word. Prospectus is smart people stuff.

Mark Borchard:

Shout out to baseball prospectus. They do a great job over there. Good numbers.

Scott Spreitzer:

They do?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah.

Scott Spreitzer:

Excellent. I got to tell a quick story. Back in the day to follow up with Jeff was saying, the old TV show and we had a segment called Way No Way. Okay. Forgive us. It was the Wayne’s world era, but it was called Way No Way, this little segment of the TV show. And it would be one of us cappers against another capper. It would be about a three or four minute segment each week. And if you won against that opponent, you moved on. If you lost, you were done until it rotated back to your turn again. And Mike Lee and I had some serious battles, the late great Mike Lee, who I learned a lot.

Mark Borchard:

Oh, I loved Mike Lee. I met him at the Vegas bookstore one time. He was great.

Scott Spreitzer:

Oh, man. He wrote A Great Baseball Cap or MLB betting 101, I think it was called many, many years ago. It’d be fun to have him around still because I’d be asking, oh boy, that 101’s out the window with the way baseball has changed. But what a brilliant guy, when it came to sports betting. And Mike Lee had lost like six straight Way No Way weeks, just rotated around every time he was up. So we actually had him go against himself. We have Mike against Mr. Lee. And it was probably the most liked segment that we’ve ever done on that show we did back in the day in the ’90s on USA Network. But I digress. Mark is in with that over nine. Casey, the White Sox. Jeff and I both agree. Let’s move on. And by the way, folks, again, don’t forget. You can ask questions right after this game.

It is the BetUS game of the day out west, the Dodgers at the San Francisco Giants right now, as we look at the screen, the Dodgers land 140. It’s gone up about 50 overnight. Comeback is plus 125 total there. Eight little bit of juice on that over minus 115 on the over. If you want to jump in on that minus 105 on the under. But again, BetUS game of the day, the clash between these two great rivalries from back in the days of your back in the days when both teams were of course, located in New York. Dodgers [inaudible 00:43:25] battle with the Mets and Braves to the best record of the national league guys. And while the giants have won two in a row, they are only four games out of the wildcard standings. As Jeff mentioned earlier, chances are Carlos Rodon is going to be moving on to another team, which mean this team sort of gives up. And Jeff, it is the Dodgers coming to town. They hated Dodgers. Logan Webb for the Giants. Andrew Heaney for LA. What do you think on this one?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I guess with Heaney, the jury’s still out, right? I mean, look, he’s been very good, but he hasn’t went past really the sixth inning outside of one game that was against Cincinnati. I think he only went five innings actually in that game. But either way, I mean, he’s been very good, but it’s a small sample size. It’s hard to buy-in. Look, I like Logan Webb. Listen, I made money less than at San Francisco. I played them against the Cubs. I played Rodon. I feel like whenever I can make some money with them, I look away for a while. I’ve lost some games just because I don’t think they’re a very good team. I just think they’re a flip. They’re a team that is inconsistent.

You mentioned, they’re probably going to be getting rid of some of their better pitchers in Rodon, and that’s not something I want to back. I just feel like morale wise, I’m just not interested. It seems like the Dodgers with Heaney, it seems like they can’t seemingly do anything wrong. I would probably look towards the first five maybe. I think Heaney just has been solid. They’re very good in that role all year, but maybe an under two. I don’t know. I don’t have much in this game. I’m just going to avoid. Heaney continues to look very good.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah. And Mark, I’m telling you about, as far as San Francisco’s start concerned, I know they’ve actually lost a couple of web starts at home this year. They’re nine and two to what home this year? I think 22 and two, the last 24, when he takes the [inaudible 00:45:09] San Francisco’s home mark. About Heaney, he doesn’t eat up a lot of innings. At least he hasn’t yet. And he has had a decent run of late, but those three opponents were Washington, Cleveland and Cincinnati. Your thoughts on this one?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, it’s a tough game for me because I like both pitchers, but Jeff mentioned that Heaney’s sample size is a short one, only 19.1 innings pitch. So we got to be careful on that. I’ve got to price it like 6.5 to the under. I’ve been really behind Webb a lot this year and pretty decent results betting on him. But I think here it’s a tough one for me because I’m looking at some weather in San Francisco. So it goes against the fundamentals of the game. And I said, I’m just going to sit it out because I don’t want to bet based on fundamentals where the weather’s going to take over the game play.

And one of the other things too, is these guys home runs to batters faced. I think it’s really low with Heaney. He’s eighth in baseball. And I know it’s a small sample size, but he’s given up home runs in his career and he is at a 1.3% home runs divided by batters faced. And with the weather blowing out, I think we might see San Francisco had a couple home runs here. So while my fundamentals say bet the under, the ancillary factors are leading me to stay off this one, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah. I’m with you guys. I can’t go against Logan Webb at home. I just can’t. I mean, 22 and two is the record for his team when he starts at the same time. I just don’t want to buck the Dodgers here. So we’re all looking like we’re going to pass on this one. And of course, if you have any questions on any of Monday’s games, we’ve covered almost all of them. It’s an abbreviated card and we’ve already talked about five games, but if there’s any questions, be sure to drop a question on us for any of the games guys. I was looking at a couple of other possibilities today. I thought a little bit about back in the Yankees and I decided not to.

I mean, they’re 22 and eight against lefties. And of course, you’ve got a situation with this Seattle team that now doesn’t have J-Rod. They’re four and six after that huge 14 game win streak. And you’ll see there that David Gonzalez Jr. has asked us about the Yankees run line over and of course, that’s his question. I guess I leaned that way, but again, it’s [inaudible 00:47:31]. I’m not sure I want to bet him. You guys have any thoughts on this?

Jeff Nadu:

I got-

Mark Borchard:

Go ahead, Jeff. Sorry.

Jeff Nadu:

I was just going to say, a quick point. I lean over here. You got to wonder, is German completely healthy? We talked about some of the issues with the bullpen. The Yankees are going to crush lefties. I hate Marco Gonzalez. Again, who knows what this Mariner group’s going to look like without Rodriguez, but anytime the Yankees play against a lefty with German, I’m leaning over.

Scott Spreitzer:

Mark?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I hate Marco Gonzalez too. Marco Gonzalez base ERA, 5.43 is actually higher than Chi Chi Gonzalez. So I think that probably says it all about Marco Gonzalez, but having said that, I think that you get on the back end of this game. You have this Seattle bullpen that gosh, I think it’s really, really good. And if you look at their K minus BB on the road, they’re second in baseball. So maybe if you do an over, you play the first five over. I think that’s probably how I would do it if I wanted to get involved in playing the over here because, or play like Judge, like Judge is 175 way to run creative plus expectation versus lefthanded pitching play to hit a home run. Maybe you could get one with some of those books. You can get Judge to hit a home run and over. That might be a good way to go there.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, I’ll just say, I don’t think you can capably bet the run line of the Yankees with German. I just don’t, especially they’re at home here. I guess we have to ask though. I mean, Judge is what? 42 home runs and it’s August 1st. I mean, seeing it 70 home runs. I mean, Christ. It’s unbelievable. It seems like every game he’s hitting two home runs. It’s crazy.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah. I can’t play against the Yankees with Marco Gonzalez. Boy, this guy’s getting no love on this show today, but I do like Mark’s thought about over in the first five innings, if you’re going to get involved, because you get these two pitchers on the bound. And as Jeff mentioned, the Yankees been crushing lefties 22 at eight now at home or against lefties. And then I wanted to bring this up real quick. If anybody else has got any other questions, be sure to chime in. But I was asked this overnight on Twitter about Eovaldi and Garcia, Boston and Houston. And real quick, Boston says they’re selling and Eovaldi could be gone. So here we got [inaudible 00:49:52] Barrington who is asking about that particular Astros game as we bring it up.

I guess I’m channeling some of these questions before they happen, but I’m looking at that game and I’m thinking Boston might be selling Eovaldi in the month of July guys. I jotted this down 1,108 ERA, 204 WHIP. You’ve got Houston who has a batting average against Eovaldi of nearly 360. There’s six and one at Houston, their last seven with Garcia. I was a little shock guys that Houston wasn’t a bigger favorite in this game.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, over his last eight and two third innings, Eovaldi’s given up 13 runs over the last eight inning and that’s as bad as it gets. It’s not a real good audition for being traded. And now it gets worse because you got to play Houston. I mean, you’ve played the Yankees, Toronto, Cleveland, now Houston. Four stars could be really ugly for Eovaldi. Throw on the fact that the morale, this team, they just seem lost. I mean, we obviously remember a couple of weeks ago they gave up 28 runs. They went from being a team that I think was backable at one point to just a complete mess. Now they’re under 500. I don’t know. Garcia though, I don’t love. Eovaldi’s actually better on the road than at home, which makes sense being in Fenway. I don’t know. Four and a half maybe with the Astros team total against Eovaldi, maybe you just assume he is going to continue to be bad and they do what they do and put up five runs, but I didn’t ultimately get there. This is a tougher card, quite honestly, outside of the one plan I made.

Scott Spreitzer:

Mark, any thoughts on this one?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. Eovaldi, he’s been perplexing to me because the advanced numbers aren’t bad on him. I mean, his command numbers 0.18. BBB divided by K is based on your ERA 3.27. Garcia is at 3.60. And if you look at outside of my modeling, and this is one of the reasons I want to look at this every day is the athletic stuff plus and pitching plus numbers. And you look at Eovaldi’s like 81 percentile stuff plus 96 percentile from a pitching plus number. So I think he’s got the capability of pitching really, really good, but he sure hasn’t shown at the last couple starts. And so for me, although my model says, “Hey, Boston’s got some value here.” I can’t pull the trigger on it. And I’m just going to pass on the game, even though there’s some technical indications that Eovaldi still has what it takes, I think to be a really top level, major league pitcher. But it’s confusing because you look at what he’s done and recently he’s been a disaster. So I think for me, it’s just a pass, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

Let’s take one more question. Roosevelt Hamilton asks about the total in tonight’s matchup between Cincinnati and Miami, the game on the road in Miami. I’m just going to throw it to either one of you guys because you know what my feelings about Hunter Greene. Great prospect, but man, when that fastball’s flat and straight with no movement, he could be tagged, but it’s the Miami Marlins. So there’s my thoughts on that one.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. That’s the problem. Miami’s offense, you can’t back. It feels like these teams play every night. I mean, I feel like they play it every night last week. I don’t even know who’s pitching for Miami. I don’t think that’s even been announced. Is it? I mean, the mlb.com hasn’t been announced, but yeah.

Scott Spreitzer:

I didn’t see him right before the show.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I don’t have much.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I have it in the model with Luzardo and so he’s coming back off an injury. I really like Luzardo. His basement or numbers are really good. We’re talking about athletic stuff plus numbers, both guys. 98 percentile for Hunter Greene and 81 percentile for Luzardo. And then these offenses are just really bad. I mean, Miami’s offense, the way this incarnation of whoever’s been in the lineup right now. I have 30th in baseball and then Cincinnati 27th in baseball. So I think you almost have to play an under here if you’re going to do total.

Scott Spreitzer:

Well, thanks to the questions from everybody. We appreciate you guys obviously viewing every day and asking those questions and we try to give our best thoughts on some of those games. Some of them, if they’re not best bets, they’re just games. We don’t really tend to get involved in on that day’s card. But we do appreciate you guys joining it in on the show. Let’s take a quick recap of Monday’s best bets as we kick off the month of August. You’ve got Jeff with that Mets team total over four and a half, laying 145. I’m on the same game. I’m laying the runner and a half with the Mets at minus 140. Mark, the base winner. He’s got Arizona-Cleveland first five innings over five minus 115. First five inning play on Texas minus 165.

And then Casey and the White Sox. They are over. He’s got over nine plus 100 on that one. And I think the big news from today’s show are Jeff and Mark agreeing on a lot of plays. And that’s pretty cool because you know what? I got to tell you guys, I’m joking to a certain extent, but I really do like it when I go against or I’m talking to a handicapper and their formula for betting on games is completely different than mine and we end up agreeing on those games. And I’ve got a couple of the guys in my little group that I talk to all the time where we come from different angles and we agree on games. We tend to have more success. So hopefully that’ll be the case tonight. For Jeff Nadu, for basewinner Mark Borchard. I’m Scott Spreitzer. This has been BetUS TV. Let’s put them in the wind column everybody. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. We’ll see you Tuesday.

 

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