MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Baseball Betting Odds [Monday June 13]

TC Martin:

All right. And, I think we’ve kind of become accustomed to Mondays and Thursdays like this. Of course, you know, with Major League Baseball, a lot of off days. You got travel days. You got a limited card. Not a lot of great pitching matchups today. There’s maybe one and we’ll get into that as well too. But, yeah. Kind of a little light card that we’re kind of accustomed to seeing on Monday.

TC Martin:

Jeff Nadu in the house. What’s going on my man?

Jeff Nadu:

Doing well. Thanks for having me, as always. As you guys said, not a great card, but, you know, look, this is what it is. You know? This is the dog days of summer. The NBA is wrapping up and we’re kind of bridging til the fall. So, yeah. Just attacking another week.

TC Martin:

All right. We go back and look at last weekend, guys. Probably the biggest news on the diamond was the Dodgers getting swept by the Giants over the weekend. And, this Dodger team, as we’ve talked about over the last week or so, just on a little bit of a slide. We go back to two series ago where they actually split with the Mets, losing two of the four games at home. And, then they go on the road with the White Sox, where they actually won two out of three but there was some ugly baseball in there. I remember that one game where they were basically trailing until the sixth inning and they got the series win over the White Sox. And, then they go to San Francisco in a big rivalry series and the Dodgers just could not hit. They got shut out yesterday, two to nothing. They only scored, guys, four runs in that three game series. Four total runs in three games against the Giants. How concerned should we maybe be about the Dodgers right now? Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Well, I think probably a little. I mean, I think we continue to see issues with… You know, we’ve talked about their bullpen over the last, let’s say, month or so. But, as you alluded to, I mean, the hitting’s just not been there. Now, you’re going to go through swoons where you just don’t hit. Look, I think the concern is maybe a little but I don’t think there’s much. They’re still a very good team, a very good lineup. And, look, the Giants are a pretty damn good team. I mean, I think we all know that. I don’t know. They always are laying big prices, too, so kind of is magnified a lot of the time.

Jeff Nadu:

But, yeah. I don’t… I mean, it’s a rival. It’s a team that’s in their division. I don’t put a ton of stock. Look, if it’s August and they’re still struggling like this to hit, well, then there’s something. But, it’s really only been a week or two. I mean, let’s remember they still score I believe the most runs in baseball. I don’t think that’s been fixed or messed with in any way. So, I’m not that worried ultimately.

TC Martin:

Yeah. I think if you’re a Dodger fan, you got to be concerned with the lineup that they have. Mookie Betts has been just downright awful in the leadoff position and if you… You know, I watched most of these games pretty closely and just seeing him at the plate. I mean, the swinging and missing, the strikeouts. You know, Freddie Freeman has been pretty much the constant. But, you know, here we’re… In the past, we were talking about the Dodgers’ struggle from a pitching perspective, but now… I mean, this offense is kind of glaring here because they are not scoring runs.

TC Martin:

Here’s the thing, guys. They had runners on base in those last two games just about every inning. I believe Saturday’s game, they had runners on base every inning and they were like oh for 13 with runners in scoring position. I mean, that is just… It is strange. Yeah, it’s a long Major League Baseball season. We get that, but… And, if you were betting the Dodgers, you actually got some pretty good prices in that series as well too and still couldn’t come home with it.

TC Martin:

But, I don’t know how closely you were watching any of that, Matt, but some quick thoughts on the Dodgers’ swoon right now.

Matt Josephs:

Zero point zero percent worried. I mean, it’s a 162 game season. The Yankees will have a stretch where they look like any other team. And, just, this is the one stretch for the Dodgers. The one thing you could potentially look at is how long term the Walker Buehler injury is potentially and… But, the problem is… I mean, they have a great minor league system. Dip one or two prospects out and they get an ace pitcher. So, I’m not that worried for the Dodgers. It’s just… You know, it’s June 13th, so they’ll be okay.

Jeff Nadu:

Remember, I mean, like I said, they’re still first in runs per game. They’re second in OPS. You know, look, you’re not going to constantly score seven, eight runs. They’re still hitting a good amount of home runs. It’s just… All of it is… It happens. I’m not… I’m not too worried. Again, in a league this year where the runs have been scarce, you know, unders have been profitable, I think they’ll be fine.

TC Martin:

Yeah. And, you go to the flip side of that. The Yankees just continue winning. You know? What, 44 and 16 right now? And, not only winning but putting 18 on the Cubs yesterday. You know, they did have that one game on Friday that went 13 innings and the two one. That was kind of weird. But, Saturday they bounced right back with basically double digit runs on Saturday and then 18 on Sunday. The Yanks, man. No one wants to get in front of that train, guys.

Jeff Nadu:

No. I mean, I… Listen. It seems like they never lose. I mean, I constantly… Like, the other day. What was it? I think it was Friday or Saturday. They were down… I think you may have had it, TC. We had it, actually. [inaudible 00:05:42]

TC Martin:

We both had Friday.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah.

TC Martin:

It was that extra inning game thing where they couldn’t score.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah.

TC Martin:

It was two to one final.

Jeff Nadu:

They were down [inaudible 00:05:47]. I think they were… No. No. No. I won the last… Last time I was on the show, Thursday night.

TC Martin:

Right. Right.

Jeff Nadu:

You and I had it, the run line. I think they were down like seven three or something crazy.

TC Martin:

Right. Thursday. You’re right. Exactly. Right. Right.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. They ended up winning 10 seven.

TC Martin:

10 seven.

Jeff Nadu:

I see [inaudible 00:06:00] 16. Yeah.

TC Martin:

Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m like, geez. You know?

TC Martin:

Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

They just… They’re never out of a game.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Yeah. All right, guys. Let’s take a look at the record board here as we dive in to a brand new week here on the show on Monday and we go and look at everything up there with that. So, there we go. All right. Still looking pretty positive for the most part and like we’ve said, Base Winner will be back with us again tomorrow. Matt is in the house here today [inaudible 00:06:27].

Jeff Nadu:

Is it possible that we could, by the All-Star break, all be positive? I think… I mean, I think I can. I mean, surely. I mean, that’s where we want to be. Positive by the All-Star break. Let’s do it. Let’s start today.

TC Martin:

There you go, man. There you go. All right. We’re going to take a look at four games on the docket here today. Like we mentioned, a little bit of a light card but still some opportunities to make some money here today. So, let’s dive in and get busy with the Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies. Both these teams just had long win streaks snapped. The Marlins had a five game win streak. Looked very good against the Astros in Houston last weekend. And, the Phillies, they got their eight game win streak snapped. But, here we go at it again today. The Phillies a very small favorite in this one, minus 128. And, if you like the Marlins, plus 119. Total in this game is over, slightly shaded to the under, minus 115 in this one under eight. Alcantara going for Miami today and Aaron Nola going for Philadelphia.

TC Martin:

Jeff, start us off here on this game.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I mean, if you’re a Phillies fan, I think you’re well aware over the years, particularly the last three or four years, of the Phillies’ issues against Miami. Miami has been a thorn in their side. They seem to always play well when the Phillies come into town or vice versa. And, I’m backing the Marlins today. You look at this price. It’s dropped about 20 cents since open. It opened, Marlins are about $1.35 dog. It’s down to 115 at some books. At BetUS, it’s about 119.

Jeff Nadu:

You look at Alcantara. I mean, he’s been fantastic all season. Over 83 innings. He’s got a WHIP of point 94. Opponents are hitting 190 against him. He’s been awesome. 77 strikeouts in 83 innings. Just a very solid pitcher. I’ve talked before. I am not a huge Nola fan. I’m just not. I think he’s overrated. People act like this guy is an ace. You look at his starts recently at home. Not been particularly good. In fact, you look at his last six starts in general. I mean, couple of bad outings, four more runs. I just don’t love Aaron Nola. I’m looking at the fact that these bullpens are kind of a wash. In fact, I’ll give Miami a slight advantage quite honestly in the bullpen.

Jeff Nadu:

Lineup-wise, they have some power with some of the guys they have. So, I’ll always look at what the Phillies struggle to do against the Marlins. Throw in the fact the lees are a little over-valued in the market right now even after a bad losses today. They finally lost on a Rob Thomson. Does that kind of waver where this team goes? Yeah, they won nine in a row, but they finally lost yesterday. Now, the shine’s kind of off but we’re still getting I think a little perceived value in Philly due to the latest win streak and how the public deems them as better than maybe they are.

Jeff Nadu:

So, I’m going to take the Marlins. Price works out as well. Sharp money on the Marlins. I’ll be on Miami here.

TC Martin:

Okay. Matt, some thoughts?

Matt Josephs:

Well, I mean, it’s spoken like a true Philadelphia fan there because, I mean, if… It’s funny because if you read all the blog previews and things like that and you listen to the radio, it’s like, “Oh, the Marlins are coming.” Literally no other team in America it’s like is afraid as the Marlins as the Phillies and their fans are. But, I mean, look, you’re getting Nola at home and we know that, or at least we think we know, he’ll go six or seven innings. And, I’m not the biggest Nola guy and if this was on the road, I’d be fading him because I just don’t like road Aaron Nola even though he’s been slightly better this year on the road than he usually is.

Matt Josephs:

But, you know, I think there’s a chance there’s not a lot of runs scored in this game. You could certainly look at like a first five under, but the problem is if the wrong Nola shows up, the Marlins could take advantage of that sort of thing. So, I understand what Jeff is saying. You could also make the case you’re getting the Phillies at a really good price and that their lineup will just bounce back hopefully. Alcantara’s really good. He goes deep in games. He kind of mitigates that whole bullpen thing by going six or seven innings.

Matt Josephs:

So, I know where Jeff is coming from here and certainly the Marlins are always live it feels like against the Phillies.

TC Martin:

Hmm. You know, you talk about Alcantara and also Nola. I know you guys aren’t crazy about Nola, but you can’t argue with his numbers. And, both of these guys are strikeout guys. In their last four starts, Alcantara has 35 strikeouts and only four walks, and Nola has walked one batter in his last four games. He struck out 30. To me, guys, this kind of screams under. I know it’s seven and a half here. That ballpark kind of took me off of that a little bit. But, any quick thoughts about maybe an under play in this?

Jeff Nadu:

Well, I will say, I mean, I think, TC, you’re one that you’ll generally look at the recent stuff. I mean, recent starts for Nola at home have not been good. I mean, 11 in the thirties, giving up nine earned runs. You know, that’s problematic. Now, it was against the Dodgers and the Giants, two solid teams.

TC Martin:

Right.

Jeff Nadu:

But, as you alluded to, though, he has been very good, hasn’t walked people. He’s struck a lot of guys out. Yeah. It seems like these are always one score games and low scoring. I would definitely lean under. Now, again, it’s tough here because the weather is getting better. It’s in the eighties and the ball will likely fly. But, yeah. Two solid pitchers. You know, yeah. I don’t… I don’t hate it.

TC Martin:

Hmm. All right. Let’s lock Jeff in for the play here on this one. He’s going to take the Miami Marlins at plus 119. And, Matt, no play in this game but any slight lean at all anywhere?

Matt Josephs:

I mean, the fatalist Phillies fan in me would agree with Jeff and take the Marlins in this one. You know, the under also. The one thing that works for the under potentially…. Corey Knebel may not pitch tonight for the Phillies.

TC Martin:

He’s out.

Matt Josephs:

So, if Nola goes seven or eight, then Seranthony, who should be the closer, Seranthony Dominguez comes in and he’s been really good. So, in theory, if Nola goes seven or eight, you can go to your best pitcher and lock things down. But, we all know that Nola is certainly capable of blowing up at some point as well.

TC Martin:

Right. All right. We’ll root Jeff on, taking the Miami Marlins who played some good baseball over the weekend in Houston and winning that series. All right, next up, the Braves and the Nats at Nats Park. It will be Ian Anderson going against Josiah Gray in this one. The Braves $1.43 road favorite. Total in this game, nine and a half, slightly shaded towards the over at minus 120.

TC Martin:

Guys, I just talked about the under in that last game. I really do like the under in this game. Now, I know that Ian Anderson’s not one of my favorite pitchers but what I do like in this situation that he hasn’t faced the Nationals since 2020 and the last time that he did face them, he went seven innings, seven shutout innings, did not give up a run at all. Then, on the other side, Josiah Gray. He’s one of those guys that is a little bit underrated. He’s actually one of the better pitchers on the Nats staff, even though that’s really probably not saying too much. But, he’s… Gray had one career start against Atlanta and he went five shutout innings in that game. You got a couple strikeout guys in this one. Last two starts, you’ve got… Josiah Gray went six strikeouts, nine strikeouts. And, Atlanta’s gone under in four of their last six games.

TC Martin:

I’m going to take a shot in this game, thinking maybe a ho-hum Wednesday. No one’s going to be in the park here. Anderson could be decent. I think we get Gray being where he’s been as of late. And, I’m getting a… I’m getting even money here at nine and a half. I just got a feeling here that this could maybe be like a four two game or something like that. I’m going to take a shot with the under here. Matt?

Matt Josephs:

I’m not an Ian Anderson guy. As you mentioned, I mean, he has been a little bit of a strikeout guy as of late.

TC Martin:

[inaudible 00:13:51]

Matt Josephs:

And so, I’m just not a fan of him. And, like, I know you mentioned the 2020 start but of course the Nats line up is slightly different. There’s a bunch of guys there because it’s a younger team, so a lot of those guys haven’t seen Ian Anderson before, which could work in his benefit. And then, you’re right. Josiah Gray is arguably probably the best pitcher on that staff right now and that’s, as you said, not saying much because their ace is Patrick Corbin. But, it’s two offenses… Look, the Braves offense is capable of putting up a bunch of runs. The Nats offense… At times, they’re better on the road than they are at home.

Matt Josephs:

The number does seem a little bit high, but then again, once again, the bullpens are a bit of an issue here. Washington’s bullpen is not very good. Atlanta’s is good. I would almost consider our first five if you really like the starting pitchers more than the bullpens in this one. But, you know, at even money it’s worth a shot.

TC Martin:

Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Well, we got to get TC a little bit of relief here. This number’s at 10 at BetUS, so he’s getting an even better number.

TC Martin:

Wow. Wow. [inaudible 00:14:45]

Jeff Nadu:

But, listen, I’ll make a case for Atlanta but I’ll also say that I just can’t get involved. I don’t like Ian Anderson. While I do think that he’s actually been better than his numbers may indicate, you know, I think the advantage you have here really is the lineup and the bullpen. The Nats are solid lineup-wise but the Braves are better. Bullpen-wise, it’s not close. Nationals bullpen sucks. The Braves have actually been one of the better bullpens in the league really over the last month or so.

Jeff Nadu:

So, for me, I would lean Atlanta. I think the number is where it is for a reason. Could be a little high. I don’t know if we’re that enthralled by Atlanta as a whole. But, I just think they’re a better team. I’ll even give you the fact that I’d rather have Anderson over Gray, quite honestly. So, I’d lean Atlanta. It’s not one that… If this were 115, I would play Atlanta, but it’s not so [inaudible 00:15:34].

TC Martin:

It is… It is a little bit strange that we’re seeing a nine and a half and you mentioned a 10.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah.

TC Martin:

And, the only time we’ve seen that is games in Colorado.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah.

TC Martin:

It just… And, again, obviously maybe they’re over… There’s a little over-reaction here because of Ian Anderson and Josiah Gray. You know?

Jeff Nadu:

I think you’re hoping… Yeah. You’re hoping that I think these guys just go the… Let’s even say five four.

TC Martin:

Right.

Jeff Nadu:

Where they’re just good enough.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, you have one good bullpen here, so I think you’ll be all right. I think pens do lie. I would just kind of MLB bet that on principle just because, as you said, outside of Colorado I don’t know if we’re going to see many 10s. So, yeah. I don’t hate that either.

TC Martin:

All right. Well, on, hoping for a sleepy Monday night. You know?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah.

TC Martin:

In front of about maybe 6,722 fans there at Nats Park. So, we’ll see here. Okay. You can lock me in. I’ll take a shot with the Braves and the Nats under nine and a half or, like Jeff said, if that’s the case at 10 at BetUS, I’ll take the 10 here. So, all right. Moving on to the next game, guys. White Sox and the Tigers. Talking about maybe a sleepy Monday there in Detroit. Johnny Cueto going for the White Sox and Rony Garcia for Detroit today. And, the White Sox $1.27 favorite. Total in this game eight, shade towards the over minus 120. Matt, some thoughts on the Tigers hosting the Sox.

Matt Josephs:

So, I’ll make this quick because I just looked. The weather looks terrible and this game’s probably not going to be played so I’m not going to waste too much time on this. But, this is Lance Lynn making his first start of the 2022 season. Who knows how long he’s going to go. The problem for the White Sox is there’s only two pitchers who didn’t appear in two of the three games last series. Their bullpen’s tired. So, you’ve got a pitcher who has not gone deep, who has not looked good in his rehab starts, and a bullpen that’s very taxed right now. It was… Bennett Sousa and Liam Hendricks are the only two guys who didn’t appear twice in the last series. Sousa’s got a high ERA, so in theory, if he backs up Lynn here, you’re getting two pitchers who I don’t exactly have a problem fading. And, Rony Garcia hasn’t been terrible and the Tigers bullpen is ridiculously underrated.

Matt Josephs:

Now, I need a bit of offense from the Tigers and I think I can, but I’m going to give myself the protection here of the run line. I’m a little bit more cautious. I’m sure some people will be like, “Well, just take the money line.” Eh. I’d rather have the run line. Also, as I said, I don’t think this game’s going to get played but if it does and if there’s a delay in the middle of the game and they have to take Lynn out and cover more innings, that’s going to be pretty good for my bet too because that bullpen, as I said, is really tired right now. So, give me the Tigers at home in this one in a game I don’t think is actually going to get played.

TC Martin:

Okay. Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I see Lance Lynn as well. If it’s Cueto, I mean, maybe. I see Lynn.

TC Martin:

Yeah. It’s funny because I’m getting conflicting reports here, so I see some sites have Cueto up and I see some with Lynn.

Matt Josephs:

It’s not Cueto. Cueto threw 70 pitches yesterday. He threw like four innings yesterday.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah.

Matt Josephs:

He’s not pitching today. It’s Lance Lynn who is going to get activated.

TC Martin:

Yeah. So, I think that was the original plan. I think you’re right because they did have that [inaudible 00:18:29].

Jeff Nadu:

That being said…

TC Martin:

Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

This White Sox team… I don’t… They just find ways to lose recently. I mean, their bullpen over the weekend was a disgrace. I mean, Saturday… You know, when you start seeing White Sox fans, which, yes, there are a couple of White Sox fans. I have a couple of friends of mine that are White Sox fans and they do post, you know, “This team. God, this team.” I mean, just dreadful stuff. I mean, you give up a couple of runs yesterday, couple of runs Saturday, give up a lot of runs in general as a pitching staff. Yeah. He’s right. Matt’s totally right.

Jeff Nadu:

Detroit’s bullpen is good. I mean, you look at outside of maybe Houston or the Yankees, they might have the best bullpen in the major leagues and that’s something you could always go… It’s like Baltimore. Baltimore has a good bullpen as well. Now, they don’t hit regularly. But, yeah. Chicago’s been a complete embarrassment. They’ve been very just, just out of character. You thought they’d be a lot better. They’re going to need a lot to figure it out.

Jeff Nadu:

But, yeah. I lean… I lean Detroit myself.

TC Martin:

All right. And, just for our viewers out there to clear everything up with that, Cueto was the original starter that was supposed to go today but then because of the injury that we probably all saw yesterday with Kopech… I mean, he came out of the game out of the first inning, so they had to… So, Johnny Cueto actually came into that game in the middle of the game, so that scratched his start today and [inaudible 00:19:47] Matt. Now, they insert Lance Lynn. So, that would be interesting to see how that plays. And, like I said, you got weather a factor in this one [inaudible 00:19:53] too.

Jeff Nadu:

It’s interesting. I’m… Randomly, I just see a tweet. Someone writes, “In Detroit for a conference. Don’t know the city well.” I mean, he posted a picture and it looks sunny. Like, super sunny in Detroit. So, I don’t know.

TC Martin:

I don’t know. We’ll see. Well, all right. Well, at any rate, we’ll lock Matt in here for a play. Right? With the White Sox and the Tigers here.

Matt Josephs:

Yes. Tigers run line.

TC Martin:

And, it’ll be actually taking the Tigers plus [inaudible 00:20:20] laying [inaudible 00:20:20].

Jeff Nadu:

Come on, Matt. Tigers run line? Come on, dude. [inaudible 00:20:23]

Matt Josephs:

We’re two different people. We’re two different people, Jeff. I’m more cautious. You’re the… You go big, which is fine. That’s why we’re here.

Jeff Nadu:

Come on, dude. Plus one and a half is for lames. Come on, dude. Just kidding.

TC Martin:

All right. There we go. He’s got… He’s starting ahead. One and a half to nothing right now.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. That’s a good point.

TC Martin:

[inaudible 00:20:44] There you go. There you go, Matt. All right. Next up guys, Astros and the Texas Rangers today. The Astros $1.57 favorite. Total in this one is nine.

Jeff Nadu:

I know where you’re going.

TC Martin:

Here we go. Under nine is minus 115. Cristian Javier back at it for Houston today. Taylor Hearn for Texas. Go ahead, Jeff. Start us off here with the big game in big Texas here for the big man.

Jeff Nadu:

Oh, I’m starting it off. I could have sworn you would be starting it off [inaudible 00:21:12].

TC Martin:

I’m going to [inaudible 00:21:13] to you, man.

Jeff Nadu:

Well, here’s what I’ll say. There are two things that I just am not going to do. I, like you, like this team. This team is… I’ve beat a lot of unders with them. They’re nasty. They have a great bullpen. The starting pitching’s great. Good lineup generally. Just couple things I don’t want to bet on. Okay? I don’t want to lay 157 with Cristian Hearn, all due respect to… Or, Cristian Javier, not Hearn.

TC Martin:

Cristian Javier. Yeah. Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

All due respect to him. I did it recently and it didn’t work out. That being said as well, I don’t trust Houston against left-handed pitching. Okay? They’re just not very good offensively. Now, you could throw in that it’s Houston and they’ll be fine. Whatever. And, that’s fine if that’s how you want to look at things. You have to remember you’re going to have a major bullpen advantage here and as Matt alluded to over the weekend, you know, Texas played in a couple of extra inning games with Chicago and maybe their bullpen’s a little taxed here. I think if you’re going to win this game, that’s where you’re going to win it because of the stark advantage you have with bullpens.

Jeff Nadu:

Look, TC, I’m never going to go against what you say. You like the Houston Astros. You have an intimate connection and you know a little bit more about them than most, so I get it. I see it. I just don’t like Javier. I like other pitchers in Houston.

TC Martin:

Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

I just don’t really like him that much.

TC Martin:

No, I’m with you on that and I think we’ve talked about this before, where Javier is inconsistent. This is, for me, more of a play of the Astros bouncing back yesterday. After Altuve got going, they scored eight runs and then when they left the park yesterday, it was more like, okay, now let’s go to Texas. We had a really bad series against Miami. Let’s get going. And, really for me, it’s more of a play against Taylor Hearn. Two starts against the Astros this year. Both very, very similar. Both of them were losses for Texas and Hearn. Astros won those games going away. The stat line was very similar too where Hearn gave up four runs, six hits, only had two strikeouts in one game, four strikeouts in the other game earlier this year.

TC Martin:

And, you know, Texas… Their last four games, they’ve given up six runs, nine runs, eight runs, four runs. They’ve lost six of eight games to the Astros already this season. And, as far as Javier go, his last start against Texas, nine strikeouts and he went six and a third. So, that was pretty good. The Houston bullpen is very well-rested and, to your point, Jeff, and this is another note that I made as well too yesterday… Texas used six pitchers in that game yesterday that covered 12 innings. So, they’re going to be a little bit tired.

TC Martin:

So, I think it lines up pretty well for Houston in this game. Not crazy about Javier either, but for those reasons, I am going to go with the Astros today. Matt?

Matt Josephs:

I mean… I mean, this is where… You know, when it comes to baseball, we all have our different handicapping styles. You literally just said you don’t like Javier, yet you’re willing to lay this big a price. And, I don’t like Javier either and you look… You know, that start in Oakland with a bunch of walks, that was a concern, and then last time… Yeah, he gets the strikeouts and that’s good for his strikeout prop but he also gave up a bunch of runs and has been kind of all over the place. That’s…

TC Martin:

But, not against Texas.

Matt Josephs:

Yeah.

TC Martin:

Against Texas, he’s good. [inaudible 00:24:11].

Matt Josephs:

Okay. But, they’re also on the road and as Jeff said, they’re not as good against lefties and you get the advantages late. I just… It’s a price I’m not willing to lay when I don’t even like the starting pitcher but that’s because a lot of my handicapping is based off the starting pitchers and that’s why I kind of focus in on the fives and the threes and the pitching props and things like that. So, it’s just… This is where and this is why we’re here to educate people. Everybody has their own style when it comes to baseball. You take favorites. You take offenses that you like. And, you’re okay to kind of have crappy starting pitching if your offense can get around it. I’m not. Jeff, I don’t think… I won’t speak for Jeff, but I don’t think Jeff is, either.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Well, I will agree to a certain degree. No, I don’t bet crappy pitchers. I don’t at all. Cristian Javier is not a crappy pitcher. You’ll never see me take guys with ERAs over four. Again, it’s all.. It’s all about matchups.

Jeff Nadu:

Well, you did take Ian Anderson [inaudible 00:25:01].

TC Martin:

But, yeah. Again… And, I’ve been against Javier and again, it’s one of those things. It’s more of a matchup thing. I… And again, my philosophy is very similar. Good teams, good offenses, good pitchers, pitchers that have pitching matchups. So, I think we kind of handicap similar because we’re always looking at pitchers and the line is based on the starting pitcher as well too. So, again. Hey, I’m not here looking for approval. We got to make some plays here today. This is my play. Like I said, I’m not here looking for you guys’ endorsement at all.

Jeff Nadu:

Well, as we’ve…

TC Martin:

And, we’re not here to bash each other’s plays as well too. It’s like, give an opinion, back it up and not really to debate about it. So.

Jeff Nadu:

Well, as we know with you, though, we always know we’re going to see that on the card. So, I don’t mind it. Like I said, I think you have an…

TC Martin:

And, it’s worked.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah.

TC Martin:

I mean, I’m not going to go against something that has worked. I mean, just like yesterday, taking the Yankees on the run line. Boom. Go ahead and go for it. Again, Verlander. Take him on the run line. Boom. Worked again. So, yeah. And, I’m not a big run line guy. As you know, one of the very few… I think I’ve made four run line plays all year and that came back to hurt me on Friday because I should have just laid it with the Yankees. But, what did I do? I look at that crappy pitching matchup and I lose two to one in 13 innings. So, it’s baseball. [inaudible 00:26:12] a shot.

Jeff Nadu:

Well, listen. Let’s lighten up the mood. TC, I don’t know… I’m not going to prowl or jump in but I don’t know if you’re mad. I think you are. I don’t… I don’t know. But, I need to address this comment. Michael [inaudible 00:26:24]. I didn’t know what he’s talking about here. He says, “I need a dating life update from Nadu and Matt. I saw Matt popping off on Twitter.” What’s that all about? I don’t…

Matt Josephs:

I don’t pop off on Twitter. I just said that I…

Jeff Nadu:

What’s he talking about?

Matt Josephs:

I just said I started speaking to somebody I met on an app and she wanted to actually talk on the phone and I usually don’t talk on the phone. I usually am a texter. So, that’s all.

Jeff Nadu:

Come on, dude.

Matt Josephs:

That’s the only [inaudible 00:26:48] there.

Jeff Nadu:

Listen. Matt, listen. I know you… As you know, I’m a… Many women are drawn to me, the way I do things. And, let me give you some advice, Matt.

TC Martin:

I loved Matt’s look right there. That was good.

Jeff Nadu:

There’s nothing… There’s nothing… There’s nothing better than a conversationalist. Women love it. They want to know you care, Matt. Get on the phone, for God’s sakes. You’re an interesting guy. Do it. Just don’t…

Matt Josephs:

I do a radio show every day. I think I can get on the phone.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, exactly.

Matt Josephs:

It’s just something I don’t… I don’t like to do it. But, that’s okay. We can… I did it. It’s okay. I’m still alive.

Jeff Nadu:

You did it. Good. Good. [inaudible 00:27:23]

TC Martin:

Matt has that millennial approach. You know, where they’re into the texting instead of the conversation.

Jeff Nadu:

I love talking preferably.

TC Martin:

Yeah. I’m with you, Jeff.

Matt Josephs:

Oh, you do love talking, Jeff. And, we see it. That’s why you’re on these shows.

TC Martin:

All right, guys. All right. We will get back to the dating line maybe a little bit later on. We’ll see what Matt’s line… Jeff, what would you make Matt’s dating line on this new girl?

Jeff Nadu:

On this broad? Well, I mean, seems like it went well. I mean, any woman that wants to talk on the phone, I’m a fan. I mean, I think that’s lost in society, as you alluded to there. I would say it seems pretty good. As far as meeting women on apps, not one of my favorite things personally. But, you know, it’s a way for people to meet and it seems… It seems like a good idea. It seems like it’s working out. So, I give it a strong minus 350. [inaudible 00:28:16]

TC Martin:

Minus 350. Hey. [inaudible 00:28:17]

Jeff Nadu:

It sounds pretty much like a foregone thing.

TC Martin:

You’re in good shape according to a Nadu line. There you go.

Matt Josephs:

His sportsbook won’t be open for very long with lines like that.

TC Martin:

Well, you’re lucky you don’t have Base Winner on here. You’d get a barrel rating [inaudible 00:28:28].

Jeff Nadu:

Oh, yeah. Thank God we don’t have that.

TC Martin:

All right. So, back to the MLB Show. Our… The Dating Show will follow. Okay. Locking you with those Houston Astros today, giving a shot, minus 157. All right. Let’s go to the questions. Hit us up in the chat room. You got questions regarding today’s card. Anything else. Maybe outside of the dating, though. Keep it to baseball. How’s that? And, remember to like and subscribe to the show and the channel here, BetUS TV, the MLB Show. Remember we’re here Monday through Friday, 12 noon Eastern and also like and follow on Twitter as well too at BetUS TV.

TC Martin:

Jefferson wants some thoughts here, talking about the Orioles going to Tennessee here. I don’t know how we can really handicap that here at all. Anybody wants to chime in about Baltimore leaving the friendly confines there of Camden Yards?

Jeff Nadu:

Wait. What is that all about?

TC Martin:

I don’t…

Jeff Nadu:

What is he talking about? Tennessee? Is he saying they’re moving? I think… I think he might be talking about… I guess there’s some rumors that the owners of the Orioles are maybe moving it. I don’t know. But, as far as this game, I mean, do we really need to break this game down?

TC Martin:

No.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, we all love Manoah. He’s, I think, the best pitcher in the AL right now. Bradish is disgraceful and sucks. I would lean on a first five, though. Try to find value there. I don’t know. I mean, I’ll… I just don’t really want to go against the Orioles because I think they can stay in games and I think they generally have an advantage in their bullpen. But, yeah. I’d want to go first five. How you do that, I don’t know. I mean.

TC Martin:

Minus 320 in this game. Yeah. I don’t [inaudible 00:30:08].

Jeff Nadu:

What’s the minus at half, in the first half? One…?

TC Martin:

Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

200?

Matt Josephs:

I like Bradish. I think Bradish has potential. I mean, I think we need to remember this is his first year in the majors and he had 11 strikeouts in seven innings in St. Louis back in May and the Cardinals don’t strike out a ton. And so, I think… I think he’s got potential but I think he’s going through some growing pains here so I’m not ready to just throw him out there as like a garbage prospect like he’s Chi Chi Gonzalez or something. But, I mean, look, going to Toronto is another thing. I don’t think he’ll do very well against Toronto’s offense. But, Bradish will definitely have some value at home against the right opponents going forward.

TC Martin:

All right, guys. Mark wants to give us a question on Arizona and Cincinnati. Some thoughts here as we look at this game. Arizona coming off that victory at Philly yesterday. But, Jeff, any thoughts about the Diamondbacks here today hosting the Reds?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. This is one where if I’m playing it, I’m looking first five. I want to isolate Merrill Kelly against that awful pitcher Mike Minor who’s a mess. Kelly’s been as good as it gets really for Arizona. I continue to say they’re a pesky team. They really are. I mean, if you had told me they’d be near 500 in the middle of June or approaching the end of June, I would be… I would tell you you’re nuts. I mean, this lineup’s not great and they’ve seemingly stayed in a lot of games and are winning a lot of games a lot of people didn’t think they would. So, I lean on a first five here, though. I really don’t ever want to depend on that bullpen.

Jeff Nadu:

But, that being said, I also kind of want to go against the Cincy bullpen, so I like the Diamondbacks, whatever… However you want to play it.

TC Martin:

I agree with you and again, laying 150 against a ham and egger like Minor. I agree with you. The one thing with Cincinnati… They do score runs and again, boom, when they scored nine yesterday just kind of out of the blue. So, you know you got a garbage pitching staff. You got a garbage pitcher. Your bullpen is horrendous as well too. Diamondbacks playing better as of late. And, you’re right. Kelly’s been good. Matt, any thoughts on this game?

Matt Josephs:

I… First of all, I usually don’t love back to backs because these two guys are facing the same team from what they did last start, but… And, I’m certainly not a YRFI NRFI nerd or anything like that, but Merrill Kelly is really bad the first time through the lineup and he’s given up runs in the first inning a bunch of times so far this season. He’s… His batting average the first time through the order is over 300 and you don’t see that the second time. It’s like 176 or something like that. But, then again, I can’t back Mike Minor. I would consider a first five over but the Reds on the road are atrocious offensively. So, there was just a lot of things that kind of had edges but I couldn’t really find anything.

Matt Josephs:

I do agree with Jeff, though. If I was to play anything, it would probably be Arizona to some extent whether it’s the full nine or the first five.

TC Martin:

All right. Padres and the Cubs today. Yu Darvish back at it after a very good outing last time around. Justin Steele for the Cubs. The game at Wrigley. Any thoughts on this, Matt?

Matt Josephs:

The winds are blowing out right to left, so of course you have to kind of consider that. I think a lot of people, or at least some people that play the K props, would look at Yu Darvish right away because the Cubs do strike out a ton. They average almost five strikeouts against right handed starting pitchers. But, I caution people. If you look at Yu Darvish outside of Petco, his strikeout numbers have not been good for the most part. So, it’s not as easy of an over as you would think. I know you look at some of those efforts that were done in Yankee Stadium, but I’m just cautioning people who might look at his over. He is not a strikeout pitcher outside his building. There might be a little bit of value, but Steele is such a wild card that I don’t know if I can necessarily back the Cubs in this one.

TC Martin:

Cubs reeling, and again, bullpen really got devastated throughout the entire weekend, you know, starting off with that 13 inning game on Friday and then they get hammered again. Had to bring in a position player to throw a 35 mile an hour home run ball yesterday. That was pretty funny as the Yankees closed and got their 18th run on a homer yesterday. Jeff, any thoughts about the Pads and Darvish?

Jeff Nadu:

No, I don’t have much interest here. I mean, Steele has actually been pretty good at home. He’s been kind of effective, quite honestly. I know he’s had one or two bad starts, but all in all, he’s been okay. That being said, you know, the Padres are definitely more effective against lefties than righties. I don’t have much here.

Jeff Nadu:

This card is not great outside of kind of the thoughts I had. This is pretty much it for me. I don’t… I don’t have much on anything else.

TC Martin:

All right. Let’s answer a question from our boy Dirty Deeds. Twins and Mariners today. Any thoughts on this one, guys? Matt?

Matt Josephs:

So, I considered the Twins first five plus a half because I kind of like Archer. We know that Archer’s essentially a four or five inning pitcher here and then Chris Flexen’s a joke. But, like, the Twins offense is all over the place. So, ultimately I didn’t play it because I didn’t give it out on the show, but Twins first five was something I certainly considered because I definitely like Archer more than I like Flexen.

TC Martin:

Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

I have nothing on this game. It’s a completely awful matchup. I hate the Mariners. Archer, I’m not interested in.

TC Martin:

Yep.

Jeff Nadu:

Just don’t have much. I will say… TC, can we talk about the NBA Finals at all or no?

TC Martin:

I was going to get to that actually.

Jeff Nadu:

All right. Cool.

TC Martin:

As soon as… As soon as we got to our… Finished our questions there. And, agree with both of you guys. Yeah. Flexen and Archer… It’s a regular go against for me on both of these guys. So, yeah. Nothing much there.

TC Martin:

All right, guys. Yes. Let’s go to our best bets here real quick here and look at… Wrap up the baseball here for today, what we got on a Monday. A short card. Jeff is taking a shot with Miami Marlins today coming off their series win against the Astros. Plus 119 today for Jeff on that one. Matt’s going with a run line play plus a run and a half with the Tigers. Going to lay 150 on that. I’m going to take a shot with two plays today, the Braves and Nats under nine and a half at even money and Houston at minus 157 on the road against Texas here for that one.

TC Martin:

Yes. Game number five tonight. The NBA Finals. You guys are basketball guys just like myself here. Warriors and the Celtics tonight. Game five. The pivotal game five back at the Chase Center. Jeff, who do you like and why?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. So, I was… I was pretty blown away. Look, obviously Stephen Curry played incredibly the other night, but you have to keep asking yourselves, can the Warriors continue to play this way and win? I was blown away that they were able to win that game by 10 but they did win the game by 10. Draymond’s been a complete disaster in this series. Klay Thompson’s not been effective. They continue to get destroyed on the glass it seems like. I also will continue to mention. Last game and the game before in Boston, Boston got every 50 50 ball, it seemed like.

Jeff Nadu:

That being said, you’re going to hear a lot tonight about how the good… How the Celtics are undefeated off of losses this year in the playoffs. I think this is where it ends. We have to remember how difficult it is to go to Golden State and win basketball games. Stephen Curry is on another level. This is what great players do. And, when we really look at Boston… Okay? When we really look at them, is Jayson Tatum terrific? Yeah. He should be a Philadelphia 76er, quite honestly. But, when you look at the rest of this team, Jaylen Brown’s been great. I don’t think he’s as great as he has looked. I just don’t. I don’t think you can continue to depend on people like Al Horford. Sorry. I don’t think you can continue to depend on some of the people they’ve been depending on.

Jeff Nadu:

The Warriors have not played well and have still been able to win and won the other night by 10. I think at home tonight, they get the job done. Remember, this number went from three and a half to four. I like the Warriors here. I think they win going back to Boston. I think it’s going to go seven but I think they win tonight.

TC Martin:

Matt?

Matt Josephs:

I think the Celtics cover tonight but I will say this. I think Klay Thompson goes nuclear tonight. I think we get one of those virtuoso five three pointer type. I think he got a little bit of confidence last game. He’s back home. I think they’re going to still try and do everything they can to slow Curry down. I think tonight, we see 30 points or so from Klay. Maybe like five or six threes. I think it’s still going to be a close game but I think tonight, Klay Thompson comes back into this series and makes things very interesting here.

Jeff Nadu:

Let me ask you something, TC. Can you explain this? Okay. Ime Udoka. Okay. Why on earth are you playing…? And, that’s a great comment by one of the commenters. Why the hell are you dropping on Steph Curry?

TC Martin:

Yeah. Right.

Jeff Nadu:

What an idiot. What the hell are you doing? I mean, it’s the NBA Finals. Wake the hell up.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Yeah. No. It’s… And, you have no answer for Steph Curry. That’s… That’s a coach that’s basically saying, “Okay. You know, we’re going to give him some different looks. Maybe we’re going to pick him up full court.” Steph Curry has seen it all. And again, I think this is a great spot for the Warriors here tonight. I think it’s a great value. None of these games have even been close. You know, the final scores, we’re seeing double digits again here.

TC Martin:

Klay Thompson. The game six magic which we normally usually see in game sixes, Matt’s calling for one game earlier. I agree with you. I think Klay gets off to a hot start tonight. If that’s the case, look out for the Splash Brothers because Curry’s going to get his. He’s going to do his thing. And, I don’t think the Celtics are going to shoot lights out on the road here. Not in this game. And, basically their outside shooting is what’s going to carry them and take them. Again, this team has been way too inconsistent for me all postseason long. Again, hence the record that you see here, but with them going deep into these series and not really having great success at home. They have been a pretty good road team, but yeah.

TC Martin:

I think this is a Warriors night tonight. I like them. It’s game five. The experience shows out here tonight and as far as adjustments go, Jeff, you know, Steve Kerr and the Warriors have made better adjustments than the Celtics have. So, I like the Warriors tonight.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, not only did Udoka put this stupid idea into fruition but he then doubled down in it. Listen to this quote. I mean, how dumb can you be? He says he trusts what we’re doing on defense. He emphasized that you can’t go after Curry the same way as other stars because the Warriors have other playmakers along with Curry. I mean, yeah, that’s true but Otto Porter’s kind of not great. I mean, Draymond Green’s like playing four on five offensively. What the hell is he talking about? I mean, then to double down on it. I… Just awful strategy.

TC Martin:

Well, and we’ve seen games where the Warriors… You know, well, Wiggins will come up and do his thing. I think you’re going to get quality minutes out of Looney tonight, especially on the home floor.

Jeff Nadu:

He’s been good. Yeah.

TC Martin:

And, that’s the thing. I mean, you know, you just… You never know what you’re going to get with Golden State. I mean, it could be Payton coming off the bench one night. You know? You just never know. They are so deep in what they can do. And again, like you said, if it’s not the big three for Boston, they’re not going to win this game. And so, we’ll see what happens tonight. But, I’m looking forward to it. I mean, game five. You know, at… You know, in San Francisco. Chase Center. Warriors coming off that win. We see the Warriors in these type of situations before, coming off wins, getting confidence back. I like them. And again, they treated game four… It was like the most important thing. You’re going to see that same mentality, I believe, tonight from the Warriors as well too. So, there we go.

TC Martin:

All right, guys. I appreciate it as always. Base Winner will be back with us tomorrow. Matt, appreciate you and Jeff as well too. Remember, like and subscribe to the show and the channel here at BetUS TV. Click that bell so you get the notifications when we go live and good luck to everyone on their plays here tonight. Enjoy. We’re back at it again tomorrow right here on BetUS TV. 12 noon Eastern with the MLB Show. Have a good day.