Speaker 1:
And happy Monday to everyone as we start another week of the MLB show here on BetUS TV, TC Martin coming to you live from Las Vegas, along with my tag team partners, Jeff Nadu out of Philly and the BaseWinner Mark Borchard coming to you today from Scottsdale Arizona. Glad to have you with us here on BetUs TV, the MLB, show Monday through Friday, 12 noon Eastern time. Join us, make sure you like and subscribe to not only this channel, but specifically the show as well too, as we give you some baseball winners, as we handicap Major League Baseball from the entire card and glad to have you guys with us here today, BaseWinner, Jeff, how was your weekend fellas? How’s it going?
Speaker 2:
Pretty good. Pretty good. Thanks for having us.
Speaker 1:
BaseWinner.
Speaker 3:
I’m doing great. I enjoyed the Oakland series, watched every last pitch of that Oakland series. I just can’t get enough Oakland. I did enjoy them getting sweep though. I like Cleveland, so I did watch some of it.
Speaker 1:
It was a crazy weekend for the A’s. I mean, they got spanked yesterday if they had the game on Friday night, but I don’t mind seeing the A’s get swept. Because again as an Astros fan, that helps the Astros a little bit. But right now you look at the ALS you got to be where I guess of the Angels seems kind of strange to say, but the Angels got to keep winning or pat themselves a little lead. I know it’s early, but I don’t know if the Angels can keep it up or not. We’ll have to wait and see on that one.
Speaker 3:
Yeah, no, I think that’s going to be a three. At least the Mariners will participate in the race and then get the Astros and the Angels. So that’ll be exciting to keep track of that division for me personally.
Speaker 1:
All right. Guys, let’s talk a little bit briefly about the weekend. Any weekend plays Jeff, how’d you do on the board, whether it was baseball or the NBA playoffs or anything?
Speaker 2:
Well, I did pretty good. I mean, I did pretty good yesterday in baseball. I took the over and that night game with the Scherzer and Atlin matchup. I will say back to Friday, I mean you’ve talked about Houston wins, but I mean, look, if you’re Oakland, I mean, you score eight runs. I mean, that should be an easy win. You’re up four, one after the first. They just couldn’t keep a lead. I mean, it’s kind of sickening. I mean, it’s eight to five going into the seventh inning. But again we’ve talked about their ballpen have been okay, but when you continue to trot out guys that are journeymen or, or just haven’t made it up to the bigs and now they are. I mean, there’s a reason that they’ve been not making it to the bigs until now.
Speaker 2:
So yeah, I mean, it’s pretty sickening. I mean, they scored runs, but they just couldn’t hold the lead. I think the guardian scored four runs in two different innings. I mean, that just can’t happen. I mean, it’s just not good enough.
Speaker 1:
No, you’re right. It was very heartbreaking for me like I said, to blow two, four run leads.
Speaker 2:
I took it too. I thought the case you made was great. I mean, you had the Montes angle. I mean, Savalid blows. And this is sometimes for me, and again, this is why I’m almost over the next month or so really start to shift the team totals. I mean, I’m going to start to trust the lineups, I’m going to go against pictures I just don’t like.
Speaker 2:
And again, a lot of the time when you lose games just because of the pictures, the bullpens, but if I could just say one thing on Saturday night, shout out to the Tigers, man. I mean, you had all that stuff with Kisha, but the truth is guys we have to start taking a look at that team when they play Lefties. And I know they didn’t ultimately score a lot of runs against Kisha. But for whatever reason when they face a lefty starter, they get the job done. They were almost a three to one dog and they got the job done pretty easy the other night. Think if you’d laid an alternate run line on the Tigers, you’d have probably gotten five to one back on that price.
Speaker 1:
Yeah. And that’s the thing with the Tigers. They’ve got some big bats, especially from the right side. You’re right. And they’re a team that can bang there. I guess obviously it’s tough to play the Tigers because of their pitching was. But no, that was definitely a good spot for them. And if they’re going to continue to go into the radar like that. Yeah. You’re right. Look at the Tigers, especially against Lefties. BaseWinner, some thoughts over the weekend.
Speaker 3:
Yeah. They didn’t hit lefty Tyler Anderson very well on Friday night when I had the over. So that sucked. But no, no, it was good. I mean, yesterday was a good day for me outside of, I did lose with Corbin Burns and the Brewers, but he pitched like a 99 percentile, the 45th best outing by my numbers since July 1st of last year. So out of 3000 starts.
Speaker 3:
So it’s one of those where he pitched really well and they just couldn’t score for him the Brewers. So we got to kind of keep an eye on that. I don’t know if there’s something psychological there or not, but it just seems like every time that I’m MLB betting on Burns with the Brewers they can’t score. So maybe it’s just a timing standpoint, but overall the weekend was good. I won more than I lost. And that’s all you can ask. But before the show, I don’t think it was too good for you on that NBA game. What a tough beat. You got to tell everybody about that beat, because that’s not going to happen again.
Speaker 1:
I don’t know if I want to relive that Warrior game yesterday exactly. They have a 10 point lead looks like you’re cruising and I was jostling back and forth whether to lay the money in line, which I usually do, especially on a low number like that. And then the line went up to two and a half and I was like, “Ah, what do I do?” The money line just kept going up and ended up one-four.
Speaker 1:
And I said, “You know what? The Warriors going to win this game by three. I probably win in between three and eight points. That’d be good. No problem.” Of course they’re up by 10, they kind of fall asleep a little bit. Of course, Klay Thompson gets fouled basically at the end with six seconds to go, they’re up one, you got a 90% free throw shooter at the free throw line. He’s going to make them both. Force Memphis to take a desperation three, worst case scenario. You get overtime. Okay. I can live with that. Sure enough. He clanks the first, he clanks the second, then we got to scramble another jump ball, nonsense. And of course the Warriors win by one. Everyone’s happy that played the money line. All Warrior fans are happy, but those that laid two and a half, not so happy.
Speaker 2:
I mean, listen, this is not directed to TC because I think TC’s are going to do better and I think we all know that. But look, I’m just going to say it. I mean, I don’t know how you lose. I mean, you could have laid one and a half… I’m not trying to be that guy, but if it’s one and a half, two, especially in a playoff game. I mean you’re right though. I mean really shouldn’t have ever gotten to that point.
Speaker 2:
Golden State Warriors look, they got screwed. I mean, Draymond Green should not have been kicked out of the game. That was a disgraceful call. It should never happen in an NBA game. But yeah, that’s rough. I mean, it always seems like that. But I don’t know about you, but it kind of felt like he was going to miss. I mean, he always looks very good at the line, but I don’t know what it is about Klay Thompson, whenever I bet the Warriors… And look, I admit I had the money line, not going to lie. But whenever I bet Klay Thompson it just seems like he never does what I need him to do. I also said Steph Curry over threes, which came in. But yeah, it didn’t look like he felt real comfortable for whatever reason at the line. That crowd was good I have to admit.
Speaker 1:
Here’s the thing about that, Jeff. I felt the same way you did when he stepped to the line because that was his first time at the line in the game yesterday. I mean, how crazy is that Klay Thompson had not been to the free throw line up until those two shots was six seconds to go. And you’re right. So anytime a guy goes to the line for the first time that late in the game, yeah, that’s a little nerve wracking even though the guy’s a great shooter, he’s a great free throw shooters, a great player and okay, this is why you get paid the big money to ice these games. You want Curry or Thompson at the line at the end of that. And so, yeah, that was going through my mind like that, but it hurts me.
Speaker 1:
Yeah. Because I am normally a money line player and I’ll lay it even when the Warriors were four or five and even six point favorites. In the first round series, I would just parlay to it. If it got up to an eight point favorite, I’m not going to sweat that I’ll just parlay it to somebody else. But yeah, a little frustrating yesterday. But one of those times like, okay, now I’m going to lay it. Come on. It’s one possession. It should happen. But yes. Thanks Mark and Jeff for bringing up my frustration again today. I appreciate it.
Speaker 2:
He brought it up, I didn’t.
Speaker 3:
I just think that’s so unlikely the 90% free throw shooter. I mean, you’re thinking “Hey, that’s a great bet, but you know what? That’s just another reason that bet baseball instead of bitten basketball.”
Speaker 1:
I believe you. We just talked about the A’s game on Friday night when, again, like Jeff said, you score eight that should be enough. And you blow two four run leads. So what happens in baseball as well too. I mean every sport you have some heartbreakers and some bad beats.
Speaker 2:
I mean, no offense though, but no one on God’s green earth is going to pick baseball over basketball. Look, I like baseball, but it ain’t better than basketball. No shot.
Speaker 3:
Oh, gosh. I would-
Speaker 2:
Well, most of [inaudible 00:09:10].
Speaker 3:
I disagree wit you on that. I mean, betting baseball is probably the best sport to bet. But that’s why I’m the BaseWinner Jeff.
Speaker 1:
He’s not the basket winner. He’s a BaseWinner.
Speaker 3:
Oh, that basketball. What? That’s awful. I mean, you can’t even sleep after something like that TC. That’s just an awful beat, man.
Speaker 1:
It’s tough.
Speaker 3:
Yeah.
Speaker 1:
I will tell you what though. Mark will be probably giving us some cricket picks very soon, because he’s an astute cricket better as well too.
Speaker 3:
So I wouldn’t say that. I kind of have it figured out though, and I travel quite a bit and I’ve watched it when I travel. But other than that, I couldn’t handicap it. But like I said, it looks good in your hotel room in the background. It’s kind of reminds me of baseball, so.
Speaker 1:
Okay. I should not call you cricket winner then, we’ll just stick [inaudible 00:09:58].
Speaker 3:
Not yet. No, no.
Speaker 1:
That’s good.
Speaker 1:
Okay. Let’s take a look at, we’ve talked about Friday’s games. Let’s look at the record. When we last reconvened on Friday, I went one on one, had the Dodgers over Detroit. Unfortunately BaseWinner went with the over. We kind of debated that one back and forth, but the Dodgers that was their good get back game. They were coming off a two game losing streak. So they spanked the Tigers. But the total did go under. We talked about the, A’s game scoring eight in losing. So one on one for me, Jeff went one and 0. Had the Astros against Toronto. We talked about that on Friday as well, too. So good job there.
Speaker 1:
And then BaseWinner suffered with the Seattle Mariners losing to Miami and then the over in the Dodger game there. So there’s your updated records there. 20 and 13 for myself, Jeff nine and 13, Base one 19 and 16.
Speaker 1:
So we start the week off. Today guys, a limited schedule, eight games on the Major League Baseball docket. Today we got opinions in four of the games. So let’s get rolling here with the first one today, Yankees and the Blue Jays. Ross Stripling going for Toronto. And I’m sorry, we’re not going to start with that game. My bad. The Diamondbacks and Marlins. Okay. I was looking at different rotation order by two minutes. This game goes first. So let’s go with that one.
Speaker 1:
Diamondbacks and the Marlins. My bad there. The Marlins, a dollar 55 favorite if you like Arizona, plus one 40, very low total here at six and a half. This game actually opened at seven last night. Quickly got bet down to six and a half and one-ten on each side of that.
Speaker 1:
Guys, I will go ahead and start this game off because I like this game. It says Zach Gallen going against Pablo Lopez. And you know how I feel about Pablo Lopez. One of the best young pitchers in Major League Baseball. Both of these teams pitchers are squaring off against each other today. They’re two probably best pitchers. You could probably make the argument that Gallen is probably Arizona’s best pitcher as well too. But both offenses look pretty anemic. And when you look at these two pictures though, the combined ERA for both of these guys is under one. That is amazing. Lopez at 0.39, Gallen is 0.60. And you look at the offenses. I’m not crazy about either one. I’m going to go with the under, in this game. I know it’s a low total here guys. But for me, I don’t see any reason why this game can’t be in the three-one variety, maybe four-one variety, four-two. But I think both pitchers show up here today.
Speaker 1:
And I’m not crazy about, like I said, either offense. In Miami, let’s give them some credit as well too. They’ve won seven out of their last eight games. I was really on the fence here. Do I want to go back with Lopez and just bet the Marlins by himself? Or do I want to incorporate a total here? I believe in Gallen. He came off a really nice start last time out. So I decided to go with a total here instead of opting for the Marlins. You guys can give me your thoughts on this. Jeff, we’ll start with you.
Speaker 2:
Yeah. I mean, it’s hard to trust Arizona to hit the base. I mean, this is a disaster. I mean, they’re hitting about 20 points less than anyone in the league. This is a team at Cincinnati that’s hitting 201. They’re hitting 181 as a club. I mean just disaster is. Yeah. I like what you’re on here. I mean maybe a team total on Arizona Under, the move down to six and a half is interesting because you don’t see a lot of six and a halves in baseball. We saw one last night that got destroyed.
Speaker 2:
I mean the match score tend themselves. So yeah, I’m on this one though. I mean, Gallen’s been one of the guiding lights for the Diamondbacks this year. They haven’t had a lot to really be happy about, but he’s been terrific. 15 innings. He’s only given one run. [inaudible 00:13:46] only hitting 118 off him.
Speaker 2:
I’ve kind of talked about before the Marlins. One of the issues with him is I don’t trust their lineup really ever. You’re not going to have any crowd down there. This seems like a boring three-one type of game, two-nothing, something like that. I agree with you. I think the Under makes a lot of sense here and seems like betters agree.
Speaker 1:
BaseWinner.
Speaker 3:
Well, I can see how you were having challenges deciding whether to go with the Marlins or with the Under my model really likes the Marlins. In fact, I have it priced at minus 193, but I also like the Under on the model a bit at 6.3 and kind of why I didn’t play the Marlins. Well, there’s two things. If you look at Zach Gallen his stuff plus this year, 83rd percentile and that’s for me is going to be tough to bet against.
Speaker 3:
And then also if you look at these teams, a hard hit per nine. And this really kind of plays into your Under bit Miami. And this is kind of an interesting number because you would think Miami’s about league average or maybe a little bit below league average offensively. But if you look at their hard hit per nine, they’re last in baseball to date in hard hit per nine, and then Arizona is 25th in baseball.
Speaker 3:
So I think those are good numbers that support your Under. If I had to play it, I probably would play the Marlins with the caveat that I think Gallen could be outstanding just because of that stuff number and so far he’s put it together. I think in fact, my number of 101, which is 1% worse than an average pitcher for Gallen, I don’t think that that’s an algorithmic number. But I think that Gallen might be a little bit better than that. So we’ll see how his number shapes out over the year TC. But I like the play. I think the Under there’s a lot of good numbers there that support that.
Speaker 1:
And that’s exactly why I swayed it towards the Under, because I think Gallen will show up today. And like you said, he does have a very good stuff and kind of one of those underrated pictures. So lock me in for the Marlins and the Diamondbacks under six and a half. All right, next game on the docket Yankees and the Blue Jays. Battle of the Al East teams here. And Jordan Montgomery is going for the Yankees today, Ross Stripling for the Blue Jays.
Speaker 1:
The line of this one has the Yankees favored by 112. And the total in this game is eight and a half shaded towards the under eight and a half at minus one 15. Jeff, some thoughts on the Yankees and the Blue Jays as they go at it.
Speaker 2:
Yeah. I mean, I kind of like the price. Obviously the Yankees are always a very bet team. See this number kind of coming down a little bit. People are buying into Montgomery, but when you look at the number it’s come down. So that kind of ensures that maybe Toronto’s the play here.
Speaker 2:
Stripling I like. I think his numbers are better than maybe the incident numbers look like here. His xFIP much better than his ERA, which might assume that he’s been a little underrated. You look at Montgomery, I’m kind of backing on the fact that he’s not going to continue the pitching the way he has to start the season. You look it through what, four games he’s got an ERA under three. I don’t think that’s something that’s going to continue. And I’m sure that Mark sees this. He has an xFIP at 4.23. So it kind of leads us to believe that his numbers aren’t maybe as good as maybe they’re leading on. I don’t trust Montgomery. I’ve seen him pitch many times. Gives up a lot of home runs and has been quite shocking, frankly, in past years. I’m not interested in Jordan Montgomery. I think it’s a pretty good price on Toronto. I’m going to back them here, getting plus money at home.
Speaker 1:
Mark.
Speaker 3:
Yeah. You know what’s interesting about this game, TC is I kind of like both pitchers. I like Montgomery quite a bit, little bit better, probably about 11 points better than Stripling. I have it priced at minus 172. And really the difference is the bullpen rating here. The way it sets up for Montgomery, I’ve got it at a 72. I really like this Yankees bullpen. And I think I’ve talked a couple times on the show. I don’t remember.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, you do it pretty much every day.
Speaker 3:
Yeah. Well, I don’t re… And the reason I do that Jeff is because I haven’t seen this team with this deep of a bullpen in a long time. And so I’m really high on the Yankees bullpen. And so I have it priced accordingly. You know what’s interesting about Stripling is that over his three starts this year, and you wouldn’t think this he’s a 62 percentile against Oakland. He’s an 87 percentile against Houston. And he is a 98 percentile against Boston.
Speaker 3:
So you say, “Well, BaseWinner. What about Jordan Montgomery?” Well, he is a 72 percentile against Boston, a 61 percentile against Baltimore, but his last two starts have been really strong, 81 percentile versus Detroit. And then his last time out against Baltimore, an 89 percentile.
Speaker 3:
And what I like about Montgomery is that since Aug… This is since July 1st of last year. So he’s had 19 starts. And in this three metric chart, he’s ranked 22nd out of 210 pitchers. And while Stripling not bad, but 60th out of two tens. So I think that we get an edge in the starting pitching. I think we get a significant edge in the bullpen offensively. I have it about right, but that’s kind of how the price shakes out. And you put it in the mixer and I got it at minus 172.
Speaker 1:
Mark, let me ask you something. Just to clarify for a lot of our viewers that may not be too familiar with a lot of your terminology, because he is our analytical [inaudible 00:19:26] metrics guru. When you’re mentioning the 72nd percentile against a certain team for a pitcher, explain what that actually means. How you come up with that?
Speaker 3:
Well, it’s a great question, TC. And I’m glad you asked it because this is from my three metric charts. It’s fairly simple if you break it down. It takes three metrics that I think are very important in run suppression. So the first metric it takes into account is swinging strike percentage. And then I equate that to an expected strikeout percentage.
Speaker 3:
The next metric is hard hit per nine. And then the final metric is balls divided by pitches. And so to me, this gives me a really good idea what kind of command the pitcher has? So what I do is I scale the expected strikeout percentage. So for instance, there’s 3100 starts that Major League Baseball starters have had since July 1st. And so if he’s has a 78 percentile, well, that means he’s in that particular metric in the 78th percentile of 3,100 pitchers.
Speaker 3:
So I guess roughly it would be… I don’t know. Where would he be? But that 6, 700. So it’s scaled to those starts, the number of starts. And it usually is as the metrics, as the season goes on, I’ll delete… Well, next week I’ll have, it’ll be from July 8th. So you’re going to get about 3000 starts. So these metrics are all scaled to percentile. And then, so that gives me kind of an easy gauge. When I look at it, I can say, well, last time out, based on these three metrics, he was in the 89th percentile, meaning that only 11% of starts were better than his if you compare those 3000 starts. Does that make sense, TC?
Speaker 1:
Yeah, it does. But when you’re talking about against that team, is that the end result against that team?
Speaker 3:
Yeah. That’s the percentiles of the strikeout hard hit per nine. And when-
Speaker 1:
Yeah. Because you’re going past the last start, you were saying he was 78 percentile against Houston or 92 against the other teams. So I’m just wondering,
Speaker 3:
No, it takes an average of those basically. I mean, it’s nothing tremendously difficult. It’s just a third, a third, a third. So it’s a third, a third, a third. I take the average of those percentiles and then compare it to those 3,100 starts to get that final percentile.
Speaker 1:
Okay. Jeff, I hope you were taking notes over there. I don’t know about you. I didn’t do very good in algebra, geometry, any of that stuff. I was a general math guy. So hopefully you were taking notes and you lightened there. Jeff.
Speaker 2:
Yeah, I almost fall asleep. Sorry, just kidding. I didn’t fall asleep. I’m here. It was joke.
Speaker 1:
Back to this game, guys. The Yankees have won nine in a row, a nine game winning streak. Okay. That’s something that I think we could all understand. We look at numbers here. And Toronto has won two in a row, and they took the series from the Astros in a series over the weekend in Toronto that really had playoff feel with that is very, very exciting. So we’ll see what happens when these two juggernauts lock up here. The first of three coming up here this week.
Speaker 1:
Stripling guys he’s over four against the Yankees. He was over O and two against the Yankees last season as well too. I’m not a Stripling guy. I’m really not a Montgomery guy. When I was looking at this game, I mean, I’m really zeroing in the offenses here and which offense is going to get the better of these pitchers here.
Speaker 1:
But Jeff does bring up good point. The Yankees definitely have the better bullpen there. Ramona was used quite a bit in some high leverage situations and two of the three games against the Astros. So yeah, it’ll be interesting to see how these offenses react to both these pictures that are very, very hittable. So, all right.
Speaker 1:
So let’s lock our guys in on this one. Jeff is taking a shot with Toronto plus 102 at home, and BaseWinner’s on the other side. You guys are going head to head here. He’s going Yankees at minus 112. And I think there should be a nice little food wager in this bet every time we have guys on opposite sides or something. Because food is such a major thing for me. So I don’t know if you guys want to jump in on a little friendly wager there.
Speaker 3:
Nachos versus a cheese steak.
Speaker 2:
I hate nachos.
Speaker 3:
How can you not like nachos?
Speaker 2:
Pick something else. [inaudible 00:23:57].
Speaker 1:
But Jeff if you win, you’re getting a cheese steak.
Speaker 2:
Wait, but did he actually bet the Yankees or?
Speaker 1:
He bet the Yankees. Yeah.
Speaker 2:
Oh did he? Oh good. Because I’m not going to lie. Some of the wins I have had on this show has been when Mark been on the other side. So hopefully that’ll continue. Yeah, hopefully.
Speaker 1:
All right. We’ll see if this bodes well for Jeff. All right.
Speaker 2:
We’ll see.
Speaker 1:
Next game guys, Minnesota and Baltimore. The twins on the road in Baltimore, a dollar 46 favorite. If you like Baltimore, plus 131. That’s what you get on the O’s or playing some better baseball as of late. Total here is seven and a half shaded towards the under, at minus one 15 on the hill.
Speaker 1:
Today Chris Paddack going for the twins, Tyler Wells for the O’s. All right, the Minnesota twins have won nine out of their last 10. They even had a seven game winning streak in there as well too. This offense is really rolling right now. They scored nine runs in back to back games, they’ve scored eight or more on six different occasions.
Speaker 1:
I think we’ve got to start taking a look at this Minnesota twins and I questioned, okay, why did Carlos Correa decide to sign with the twins there? I don’t know. The twins are playing some pretty good ball and Correa is a big part of this offense as well too. But they are scoring a lot of runs here. I do like this game and I do like the twins and I like Paddack. Paddack is O and two. So when you look at him when he was with the Padres, I wasn’t crazy about him, but he had some good stuff, had some decent outings. But when I look at a guy that’s O and two that is throwing as well as Paddack has, I think, okay, it’s time to get on this guy. For me, this is a great opportunity against the Orioles. As we know that they are just pretty horrendous offensively, even though they’ve gotten things together recently. But Paddack’s got 13 strikeouts.
Speaker 1:
He’s only walked one batter all season along. He’s pitched well enough to win those two games that he had a couple hard luck losses there. So I think good spot for him. As we know, Orioles horrendous in runs, scored their last in Major League Baseball. And that they’re 27th in batting average, they’re batting 211. And when you look at Wells guys, he is just a career reliever. This guy last year, I think he went more than two innings, maybe twice, all season long. So another thing here too, to keep an eye on is Trey Mancini has been out with a rib injury. Don’t know if he’s going to play or not. But he is a big part of the O’s offense. So I think good spot for Paddack. Good spot for the twins. I’m taking a shot with Minnesota in this game. BaseWinner.
Speaker 3:
It’s a tough game for me TC because you mentioned a lot of good numbers. And this Wells is kind of mysterious to me because if you look at his… Even really, if you go into his three metrics numbers, those aren’t any good either. If you look at his baseline or ERA and this just takes strikeout percentage, walk percentage and ground ball percentage. He’s a 5.18, where you look at Paddack a year to date, he’s at 3.54.
Speaker 3:
But my numbers are still pretty high on Wells. I think he still has tremendous upside. His stuff number is a lot better than Paddack. I have his stuff at 77%, that’s Wells. And Paddack at 31%. So it’s kind of perplexing for me. I’ve got it priced at minus 145. So I’m not too excited either way. But to me it’s like Wells is probably a better pitcher than what he’s shown. So that’s why I’m kind of not going to play it. But I don’t hate your play TC. I think that based on what you’ve seen so far, that would be the way to go.
Speaker 1:
Yeah. It’s hard for me to get behind a guy that’s basically career reliever and hasn’t really gone innings yet this year. So as you know, it’s kind of one of my modes of operation as well too. Try to pick on these pictures that, and again, the Baltimore bullpen, isn’t very good as well. Jeff any thoughts on this game?
Speaker 2:
Yeah, I don’t mind to play. I’m not running to play Minnesota at these kind of prices. Their offense is getting going recently though. So that’s got to be helpful. And look, I mean I think six times out of 10 if you bet Baltimore you’re likely going to have a very good shot to win the game. So yeah, I don’t hate it. I think Mark’s onto something. I don’t think Wells is as bad as maybe he’s a been here. Last year was actually okay, but you’re right. It was in a reliever spot.
Speaker 2:
This could be signaling that he only goes three or four innings. And look, I think the quick you get the Baltimore’s bullpen, the better. The problem that Baltimore has here is Wells isn’t great and their bullpen sucks. So there’s really no way around it. You would hope Minnesota keeps up the run scoring and there’re probably [inaudible 00:28:47] this price. And as you said, Paddack’s probably a little bit better than his numbers have shown out here. So yeah, I think it looks all right.
Speaker 1:
All right. Lock me in for the twins. We’ll take Minnesota on the road today at Baltimore with Chris Paddack, lane 146. All right.
Speaker 1:
Next game, Seattle and Houston. These American League West rivals go at it again. Seattle will send Marco Gonzales to the hill and Jake Odorizzi goes for Houston. The Astros, a small favorite in this game. Dollar 32 at home, total in this game is eight and a half shaded to the over. Over money coming in early on today, eight and a half minus 125. Jeff, you want to start with this game or was… Yeah, let’s start with Jeff. Go ahead, Jeff.
Speaker 2:
Well, I’ll admit. I mean, I have no real good things to say about Marco Gonzales. I mean, I think this guy last year had one of those just amazing years that you don’t ever have. I think the trashcan found a stake and he was okay. But look, ultimately it gets the use that Astros… I mean, I have no interest in betting on him here. I mean the Astros destroy him.
Speaker 2:
And look, I know Mark will bring up, “well, it’s not that many at bets.” But I mean, look, 29, 24, 21 23. I mean, that’s a decent level of experience against someone. Yeah. I look maybe towards an Astro’s team total. I didn’t ultimately play this, but the Astros are starting to get going a little bit. They’re still without Altuve, which quicker he gets back to better. But I think they beat around to Gonzales tonight. And I’m not a big fan of their lineup as I’ve talked about. So I mean Houston here. Maybe a team total over.
Speaker 1:
Yeah, just a note. Altuve will be back in the lineup tonight. So he had his little minor league of rehab start played a couple games there. So he’ll be back tonight.
Speaker 1:
Odorizzi gave up four runs and eight hits in his last start and it was against the Seattle Mariners in this exact same matchup. I don’t know if you remember the game last week, guys. It was 11 to one game where Seattle won, pounded Odorizzi. And we know that Gonzales isn’t really that good a pitcher and the Astros have banged him in the past.
Speaker 1:
But actually, Gonzales was very good in that last game, that 11 to one win. One note is that keep an eye on Gonzales because in the start, after that against Tampa Bay, he got hit with that line drive in the wrist. And he had a bullpen session two days ago. They’re saying he was good to go, but they wouldn’t confirm a hundred percent that he was going to make this start Monday. But it looks like he is going to make it. And again, I don’t know if that wrist injury is going to have any factor at all, but just a… Oh, little, couple news and notes on that game. Base one of your thoughts on this game, Seattle and Houston.
Speaker 3:
Well it’s one of those things where you just mentioned that he got hurt and I hope he’s good to pitch actually. Because this is a play against both starting pitchers and I’d hate to see him go out there and say, “Well I’m hurt.” And then they go to the Seattle bullpen who I’m kind of high on. So I hope that doesn’t happen.
Speaker 3:
But basically I’m going to play the over first five and it was four and a half minus 115. I’m projecting a first five score of 6.01 runs, which means that I think that the four and a half should be priced like minus 170. And I think it’s tremendous value on the over. Of course I’ve been kind of bitten the butt on these really crappy pitchers playing overs, but I’m going to do it again.
Speaker 3:
Marco Gonzales one 34th out of a hundred 50th in my base winter rankings. And then Odorizzi, he’s been a lot of odor and not a lot of easy. And I’ve said that before. And I mean, it. He’s 144th out of 150 pitchers by my ratings. And one of the things that’s encouraging about this game as well is Marco Gonzales stuff plus only in the 22nd percentile. Jake Odorizzi in the third percentile of stuff plus.
Speaker 3:
So there’s a lot of things to hate about these starting pitchers. And there’s a lot of things to like about both offenses. I have the Seattle, admittedly it’s somewhat of a controversial number for Jeff. But I have them sixth in baseball offensively. And I do have the Astros 10th in baseball. So for all those reasons, I’m going to go with the first five over four and a half minus 115 here, TC.
Speaker 1:
All right, lock BaseWinner in. Once a runs early and often in this game, first five over four and a half is going to lay 115 in that game. All right, guys, go to the questions if we have any on our chat room there.
Speaker 1:
Remember, feel free to fire away any thoughts about the games that we talked about or any other questions regarding the rest of the docket or just some general Major League Baseball questions. We will answer those for you before we say a rivadochi for the rest of the day. So hit us here in the chat room. Jefferson’s got a question. He says, “A lot of times we talk about first inning. Will there be a runner or not?” And I know Jeff handicaps that a lot. Jeff, any thoughts about maybe a first inning runner or two in the Diamondbacks-Marlin’s game?
Speaker 2:
Yeah. I mean, that would be the one I would kind of key in on. I mean, two bad offenses, two offenses that likely don’t get started early, two offenses don’t hit any home runs. Yeah. I mean, both these pitchers look great. I mean, we have to give them their credit. I mean, you’ve talked about Lopez, Gallen, as I said, kind of one of the guiding lights that they’ve had there. Yeah. I mean, no one on each team has really seen the opposing pitcher. So yeah, that would be the one I would go with today quite honestly, but not too deep in this card to really look at. Yeah. That would be one I’d have my own.
Speaker 1:
Yeah. It definitely makes a lot of sense. Again, as you know I’m on the under with that game and banking on a lot of zeros. So why not have a zero in the first day? And I’m hoping for about six straight zeros in the first six frames of this game. BaseWinner, any thoughts on that?
Speaker 3:
Yeah. I mean, we talked a little bit about the pitching numbers and the hitting numbers. I mean, based on that. And then if you play that particular bet that’s the way I would play it, at least.
Speaker 1:
All right. Frank has a question regarding Atlanta and the Mets. Any thoughts about taking the under in that game? Frank, I’ll tell you right now. That was my other game that I was looking very hard at. I was thinking about taking an under in that game, especially with max Fried going Mets pretty solid as well too.
Speaker 1:
And Jeff had talked about the Mets having the big explosion in last night’s game where a lot of people thought with shearers are going and that pitching matchup would kind of… We would see an under in that game and it didn’t happen that way. When I see a team like that scores a lot of runs. Usually I like to go against them the next day and thinking, okay, that’s not going to happen again. So yeah, I looked at this game at under six and a half. Again, that number it’s a little scary because it’s six and a half. You’re hesitant to play an under at that number. But again, it makes sense why it is that way. So yeah, I still may even jump in on that game, but I have a little interest. What about you BaseWinner?
Speaker 3:
Well, there’s a couple things that I like about it. And first of all, the starting pitchers, Fried 31 out of 150 pitchers Bassitt at 49th out of 150 pitchers. I’ve got a price at 6.9 runs, which is actually over where it’s priced right now at 6.5. But what’s interesting is if you go to my site and you take a look at the weather here, I’ve got weather factors suppressing runs by 20%, which is actually a pretty significant margin.
Speaker 3:
So that would kind of take it down to 5.6. The only thing that’s concerning me are the stuff numbers for Fried and Bassitt. Fried so far this season in the 44th percentile, Bassitt in the 36 percentile. But I think that if you had to play a total, I think the under would be the way to play it.
Speaker 1:
Okay. And again, Bassitt going for the Mets here today. Both these guys ERA is very, very respectable.
Speaker 2:
If I could just throw one thing. I mean, I have a hard time playing Mets games. I mean at six and a half, I have hard to playing anything under. I mean, this offense is too good. I mean, they scored about five runs a game. I don’t know. I don’t really also put Fried and Bassitt in the category where they’re six and a half type run pitchers. I mean, I don’t know. I feel like you kind of put only a certain group of people in that. I don’t know if these two are in that. As far as weather I’m interested. That’s interesting because I mean I’m not far from New York, I mean two and a half hours away. I mean, we get generally the same weather they do. I mean, it’s pretty nice here. I mean, there’s not a ton of wind. That’s interesting that he says that-
Speaker 3:
Yeah, I’ve got a program that actually takes in specific weather data for each particular park. So it’s algorithmically done. And that’s what it’s showing. And I’m seeing a little bit of wind blowing in, but I mean maybe it affects that particular park greater than a normal park. So again, it’s park specific and I think it goes back about eight or nine years. Off the top of my head that’s how this algorithm’s done.
Speaker 1:
All right guys, I have one more question here. Tampa Bay and Oakland tonight. BaseWinner any thoughts on the A’s.
Speaker 3:
I love Oakland. Oh, man. They’re my favorite team. No I have this priced at minus 148 for the race. So the market has it at minus 147. I don’t think there’s any value on that. I talk about the A’s and how awful this offense is. But what I do want to kind of clarify is even the worst offense in Major League Baseball is expected to score. So let’s say like right now the average runs is 4.08 runs for the course of the 2022 season.
Speaker 3:
So I have them in a 92. So let’s just make it 90 for the sake of math. And so they’re 10% worse than an average offense or a hundred league offense. And so they should score about 3.6 runs even as bad as they are. So I think what I’m trying to say is that even the worst offense will score runs, even the best offense will have days where they don’t score runs. And so I think this is effectively priced here. As much as I’m down on the Oakland offense, I can’t just blanket be against Oakland all the time.
Speaker 1:
Again. I mean, the A’s are capable of scoring and we saw that in the first two games of this series. And Jed Lowrie’s back as well too for the A’s. So again, Rasmussen against… Jeff said today, “Ah, if I was going to bet this game, I think I would definitely give the A’s a shot. Here I gave it some consideration. So yeah. I’m might try the A’s one more time. Jeff, any thoughts on this game?
Speaker 2:
I got nothing on this game. I didn’t really spend much time on it. No interest.
Speaker 1:
Okay. Here we go. All right. So eight games on the docket here today. Guys, let’s review our best bets in who we like today. Jeff is going with the Blue Jays at plus 102 against the Yankees. Definitely likes Stripling more so than he likes Montgomery.
Speaker 1:
BaseWinner going with the Yankees at minus 112. He’s on the opposite side of Jeff there. And then we’ve got a first five total with BaseWinner with the Mariners in the Astros first five playing over four and a half runs. Myself, I’m going with the under locking in two good pictures here today with a Gallen and Lopez. And with Arizona and Miami under six and a half, and then taking a shot with Paddack today and the twins laying 146 with the Minnesota twins as they face the Baltimore Orioles. So those are our best bets. Good luck to everybody on that. As we look ahead to a Monday card here, as we start the week off, like I said, with eight games, pretty much all night games, they here tonight. So we’ll do that. Some final thoughts from both of you guys? BaseWinner, any parting thoughts for today’s show?
Speaker 3:
No, I’d like to see Seattle and [inaudible 00:41:08] score a ton of runs in the first inning. That’d be great.
Speaker 1:
Yeah. Jeff.
Speaker 2:
Well, 90% of the bet’s coming in are on the Yankees, but the money is on the Blue Jays. So let’s hope that I’m right there. Blue Jays let’s go.
Speaker 1:
And I like the Jays, like the offense, like at home. We’ll see how they respond after that big emotional series against the Astros. And they got another one against the Yank. So looking forward… That’s some good baseball watching with those two teams and those two offenses. So look forward to watching some good baseball tonight.
Speaker 1:
All right guys, have yourself a good one. We appreciate everyone for joining us here on BetUs TV, the MLB show. Remember we’re here every weekday, Monday through Friday at 12 noon Eastern. Remember to like and subscribe to the channel. End of the show hit that bell. That way you’ll get the notifications when we go live. And we want you to join us. Tell a friend or two, if you got them to join us here each and every weekday at 12 noon Eastern on the MLB show.
Speaker 1:
TC Martin Four, Jeff Nadu and Mark Borchard, the BaseWinner. We’ll catch you tomorrow right here on MLB TV. Don’t forget to check our sportsbook.
