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TC Martin:

And a good Monday to you, wherever you may be, for joining us here on The MLB Show here on BetUS TV. I am TC Martin, flanked by Jeff Nadu and Mark Borchard, AKA the BaseWinner. As we are here to handicap this week’s Major League Baseball games here on BetUS TV. The MLB Show. And of course, we ask you to like and subscribe to us, the channel, and of course The MLB Show here Monday through Friday at 12 noon Eastern. Remember hit that bell so you get the notifications when we go live.

TC Martin:

Gentlemen, glad to have you with us. Hopefully you guys had a wonderful weekend and cashed some tickets over the course of the weekend. BaseWinner, how you doing my friend?

Mark Borchard:

I didn’t cash any tickets. I had one yesterday. This is the best way to lose a parlay. I had three games. I had Tampa, the Yankees in the first game, and I can’t even remember what the other game was, but it lost. Oh, the Brewers. And lost all three. So the good news is is when you do that and put them in the parlay, you don’t lose each one individually. So that was my claim to fame for Sunday. Saturday was better though. I had a winning day Saturday. But happy to be back, happy to be back on the show, and look forward to crunching this card up. It’s going to be a fun one.

TC Martin:

There we go. Jeff, how you doing my man?

Jeff Nadu:

Doing well. I actually had a pretty good weekend with MLB betting on baseball. I continue, at least yesterday and on Saturday, I really just am sticking with things that are working for me. Rocky’s overs were very profitable over the weekend, hit a couple of overs in those double headers. And then I also played a little Houston. I thought Houston it was a good play on Saturday, it was a good play yesterday. They just continued to play very well. And I know that you know that TC, backing them. So yeah, just keeping these cards short. I’m not a high volume gambler as it is, so between some NBA and that, it’s wet in my whistle. So yeah, I’m pretty happy with how it went.

TC Martin:

Yeah, I agree with you. I was on the Astros Saturday and Sunday. And I actually ventured off, guys. I went with a runline yesterday on the Astros, got a little scary in the top of the ninth inning, but they got there with a 5-2 victory yesterday. And with the NBA, I don’t know about you, Jeff. Had the Warriors last night and thought it was a good spot. I know they drove the lineup to Dallas minus three on that one, but the Warriors answered the call, answered the bell here. Now they leave that series 3-0. But the thing [inaudible 00:02:34] tonight’s a little crazy, man. I’m not sure exactly. I’m thinking Boston’s going to bounce back tonight against Miami. But man, they definitely did not show up at least for three quarters, the first three quarters of that game on Saturday.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I had the Warriors Friday night. Last night, I actually took a shot with Dallas in the first half because of just some trends that I really like about a team in the third game at home off two straight losses. But either way, they better hope the NBA that Boston and Miami continues to be a good series. If that series goes sideways tonight, the NBA’s going to lose a lot of interest from people. You need some series here. And this series of Golden State has not been a good series. Golden State’s the best team in the NBA. It’s not close. Especially at this level. So yeah, look, I’m already as well looking forward, TC, to college football. I’ve begun my work on that. I’m always looking at college basketball. So I’m staying busy with all this stuff. And I don’t need 6,000 games every day in MLB to… I don’t need to bet every one.

TC Martin:

So of course not. I don’t think none of us are volume guys at all. I think I might have bet three baseball games between Friday, Saturday, and Sunday myself, and that’s about it. So just trying to pick our spots, which is really the wise thing to do. All right, guys, let’s say hit our records here real quick. We’ll get a tote board before we dive into today’s games. We got five games that we’re going to look at today. And like we said, pretty good close to last week for all of us with Thursday and Friday. I know you guys were off on Friday. But overall a pretty good week for all of us there. So making some headway there as well, too. So hopefully people enjoy this and jump on board. And today, we dive into the docket where we’ve got a pretty full slate of games. And we’re going to handicap five of them for you here today.

TC Martin:

Let’s get it going with the Dodgers and the Nationals. So the Dodgers on this east coast swing where they played in Philadelphia Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. Now they head over to Nats Park to take on the Nats. And the Dodgers are a 2-10 favorite in this one against the Nats. The total in this game is nine. Weather should not be a concern anywhere on the east coast. So that’s a good thing. So we shouldn’t have any rainouts hopefully. Tyler Anderson going on the mound today for the Dodgers, who’s been surprisingly good. For Washington, Joan Adon going. That’s right. How about that name? Joan Adon.

Mark Borchard:

You nailed it. You nailed it, TC.

TC Martin:

I nailed it. There you go. All right, guys, let’s dive into it. BaseWinner, you want to start us off?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. Because I think it brings up a good point for me on I can tell you what my line was. It was -250 was the base winner line. And you say, “Well, gosh, BaseWinner, why aren’t you putting that out with TC?” And it’s not because I want to be contrarian to TC just to be contrarian. But for me, it just came down to… Actually, there’s a couple of things. I wanted to put it in a parlay with the Yankees. And I thought that that Cole price has kind of got out of control a little bit. Baltimore’s also got a guy they’re bringing up today, his name is Adley, his first name, and he’s got really high projections. So it lowered that line.

Mark Borchard:

So basically, I didn’t really feel comfortable with the parlay. And I said, “Well, why don’t you play this games on its own?” And I can’t lay 200 with Tyler Anderson. I look at his Stuff+ it’s 14 percentile. And I think I’m just going to make that a rule. If the Stuff+ is less than 20 percentile, I’m not going to lay -200. And maybe it’ll keep me off some winners, but I just principally just couldn’t go with it. And Joan Adon actually has better Stuff+ than Tyler Anderson. And the Washington offense is capable. They got to Peralta yesterday and so for those reasons I’m not going to play it. Although, my model would indicate that there’s value with the Dodgers, TC.

TC Martin:

All right. Well, let me try to sway you a little bit here, Mark. So Joan Adon is 1-7 in that stat that you hate so much. But I put some stock into it, I think Jeff does too, his ERA at 6.38 right now. This guy has 31 strikeouts and has walked 23 batters. And of his eight starts, only one of those has gone past the fifth inning. He’s going to get raked by this Dodgers lineup today. And here’s a couple other things that I’ve been noticing with Washington here. Juan Soto has been downright awful. He’s three for his last 25. And Dave Martinez moved him from two to three, further down the order you get him, because I really don’t want to have Juan Soto coming up in the ninth inning. But he’s struggling right now. And also Nelson Cruz got injured yesterday. So he’s listed his day to day, more than likely he’s not going to play tonight. So check the lineups with that.

TC Martin:

But I really believe that the Dodger lineup is going to get to him. And it’s the homecoming for Trea Turner. And I know Trea Turner loves hitting in Nats Park. So he’s coming back home. I think Freddie Freeman will have a big series and a big game here tonight. And you know, the Dodgers for their last four wins, they’ve actually covered on the runline, they’ve won by at least two runs. So yes, I’m jumping in on one of those rare plays here today, guys, with taking the Dodgers on the runline. I’m not a big Tyler Anderson guy, but outside of his last start, he’s been pretty good and only given up two earned runs. So I think it’s a good spot for that Dodger offense to get rolling. And plus, I love good teams coming off a loss, and that’s what we got yesterday, as Jeff knows that they got beaten by the Phillies yesterday.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I think that would be the play I would make. I probably will continue to play that small pretty much anytime that Dodgers are playing. Recently a little bit, I know you mentioned the last four, so they’ve be good on the runline, it’s only been recent where the Dodgers have struggled on the runline. Up until then, I think they had 18 straight wins that were by two or more runs. Mark, I think, makes interesting points. I think you both make good points. Look, the truth is about Tyler Anderson, he’s not going to go very deep. You’re lucky if he’s going to get five innings out of him. Now you look at his last two starts, particularly his last start, he went seven innings, only gave up two runs. And it was really just one bad start this year, that one starting against Philadelphia, where he gave up seven runs over six innings. Outside of that, he’s been pretty marvelous, frankly.

Jeff Nadu:

I know that the Stuff+, some of the advanced metrics may not be in his favor, but you take that out of his repertoire here. And he’s had a great season. So you have a Washington team that’s okay offensively. They’re not terrible. I thought about maybe an over here, because I feel like if you like a team total over, so the team total for the Dodgers is five and a half. Pretty standard for them. They average five runs a game. You figure if they get six or seven, you’re going to need three runs or four runs out of the Nats to feel comfortable [inaudible 00:09:12] here. I think the best play probably would just be Dodgers runline. Adon is not a guy I want to face if I’m the Nationals. I don’t want him on the mound. This is a bad bullpen for them as well. So yeah, this would check out runline wise for me. I have no issue with it.

TC Martin:

Yeah, so I’m going with the Dodgers on the runline. Put me down for that one. And again, I get my nine at bats today, which I like, with the visiting team. And again, basically the lineup is stacked. One through nine against Adon, I think he’s very, very hittable. So I’ll lay the run and a half today with -130.

TC Martin:

Next up, Blue Jays and the Cardinals. Jose Barrios going against Miles Mikolas today. And this game virtually a pick’em. But the Cardinals, $1.15 favorite. The total in this one, seven and a half either way. It’s a -110 on this one. Jeff, what do you think about this game here? Do you think the Cardinals saved some of those runs? Because they put up about two touchdowns yesterday.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, this team’s on fire right now. Scoring a lot of runs recently. You obviously mentioned the 18 spot they put up on the board the other night. But scoring a lot of runs. You look even just over the last three games, 9.3 runs a game. Now again, there’s a lot of emphasis on that 18, but this is a good offense. Third in baseball and runs per game. Now I know that’s a fairly open stat. I know from the metrics of at home or wherever, they’ve been very good. This is a good offense. I have some good big boppers in the lineup. We know they’re going to hit. Look, Berrios sucks. Okay? I really don’t care what he’s going to do down the road. So far, he has not been a good pitcher for them. And I’m a big Mikolas guy. I’ve mentioned that before. Doesn’t walk anybody. And I know maybe some of his ex fit numbers, which expected, he’s going to come and have some regression, I’m sure of that. But right now, I don’t think it’s going to be as bad as what we’ve seen out of Berrios.

Jeff Nadu:

And I’m sure at his point, I don’t know if he’s going to get any positive aggression. We just continue to go deeper and deeper into the season. We’re almost into June and Berrios continues to struggle. I like this St. Louis team. I think they’re a good offensive group. I like Mikolas. You look at their bullpen, it’s actually pretty solid, quite frankly. So I’m going to rock with taking the Cardinals here. The money’s on my side, sharp money’s taking St. Louis here, pumping this number up a little bit from the 110 it open it’s into the 120s. I’m going to take St. Louis here at home, a place they’ve been very good at, scoring over five runs a game. I’m taking St. Louis.

TC Martin:

And you speak of pitching, one of my favorite guys, the pitching coach, Mike Maddux on that Cardinal staff. He’s one of the best, no question about it. Base winner, what do you got?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, it’s an interesting game to handicap because I think Jeff laid out some interesting numbers, and they’re all true. So you have to kind of think as far as my handicap on this game and the reason I’m going to go with Toronto, the reason the BaseWinner line is priced at Toronto -142 is you have to decide, “Well, am I going to use this year’s year to date statistics as gospel? Or am I going to blend it with a larger sample of data?” And I think for me, I like to use a little bit larger sample size of data for the most part. And one of the things that I will not argue with Jeff’s point about Berrios, I wouldn’t say that he sucked, but his numbers have been below Jose Berrios numbers this year. At least when you’re talking about just the standard strikeout percentage and walk percentage.

Mark Borchard:

But having said that, over the last 365 games… And this is 32 starts, so I think it’s a better sample. If you look at his strikeout percentage, it’s 23.4. His walk percentage 5.6. And then if you compare that with Mikolas’ strikeout percentage, 17.7, to walk percentage 5.3, you got a guy with Berrios who’s ranked 60th out of 266 pitchers. And Mikolas, 139th out of 266 pitchers. Well, you say, “BaseWinner, gosh, things have changed. This guy’s a completely different pitcher.” And I would argue that he’s not. And I would cite my Stuff+ numbers were Berrios last year, his Stuff+ in the 80th percentile. And it has gone down a bit this year, but he’s still in the 70th percentile. And I think that’s rather impressive. Also, the 75th percentile location plus numbers. And you contrast that with Mikolas who was at 13% Stuff+, and that’s actually down more from last year where he was a 30% Stuff+ number.

Mark Borchard:

So to me, the larger, more macro stats, I don’t think are telling what the granular stats are telling me when it comes to grading his individual pitch by pitch numbers. And so for that reason, for the most part, I’m going to go with Toronto. The bullpens to me, I can’t get behind either one. My three metric chart has Toronto 25th, but it also has St. Louis 26th. And that looks at swinging strike percentage, hard hit per nine, and expected walk rate. Offensively, I do like the Blue Jays. And that’s from a projection standpoint too, not what they’ve done in the last 45 days roughly. But I have them ranked fifth in baseball and 14th.

Mark Borchard:

And one thing, and Jeff, I’ll let you go ahead and refute that. But one thing I did want to say about Toronto is if you look at their hard hit metrics, this is hard hit per nine, they are third in baseball, only behind the White Sox and the Yankees. And if you go down to the Cardinals rankings in hard hit per nine, they’re 24th out of 30 teams. So I think that’s a pretty good portfolio to back the Blue Jays here for me.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. Look, when it comes to this, I do long term. Look, Berrios is a good pitcher. It’s been weird that he’s not pitched as well the last, let’s say, two or so months and into some last season. But the truth is more of this play has a lot to do with the fact that Toronto just isn’t good offensively. And I know that maybe they’ve been a little unlucky, but they’re towards the bottom in runners left and scoring… They’re just not hitting timely. They’re not getting a lot of breaks. And I guess for me, I’m a little bit more granular with what is going on right now. Look, if I get beat long term, they rattle off 10 in a row and they start hitting, so be it. But the truth is they’re on the bottom five. And again, runs per game, it’s not showing up on the score.

Jeff Nadu:

But when we look at Berrios, on the road, this guy’s been terrible. I know it’s only four starts, but opponents are hitting over 300 against this guy. His whip is high. There’s a lot of traffic. He’s just looked off. And I don’t know if that’s an injury. Sometimes we see that where we kind of foreshadow it a little bit, that maybe this poor play, there’s something wrong with this guy. And then the next week or two, he goes on the DL. I’ll be ahead of the curve maybe. And I’m sure St. Louis will lose. Because I have no success, I’ve said that over the years, in backing them. And Toronto has screwed me a couple of times when I bet on them. So I’m sure tonight they’ll put up 15 and win 15-4 or something.

Mark Borchard:

You got to think positive, Jeff. Geez. Not in this game, but in general. You can go negative in this game.

Jeff Nadu:

But this is a double whammy for me. But no, I like St. Louis. I think it’s a good spot for me. We’ll go head to head here and see who comes out on top, I guess.

TC Martin:

You know, it’s funny because both of these pitchers, they can be and have been somewhat inconsistent. And I know that I’ve been on both of these guys on and off. And I looked at this game as well too, and I just couldn’t decipher, especially from a pitching matchup. But we know Toronto’s bats are capable. They’re capable of being explosive. We’ve seen that. And St. Louis is hitting the ball great right now. And St. Louis has been on the road for a while. So they’re coming home for a nine game home stand. So yeah, this is a tough one here.

Jeff Nadu:

At what point do we start giving Mikolas some credit though? I know that we’re only in May, it’s May 23rd, not even Memorial Day yet, but Mikolas has been real good. Eight starts has been real solid.

TC Martin:

I’ve been on him. As you know, I think I was on his last two starts. I like him. I think he let me down in one of those. I think it might have been the last one. But he is got decent stuff. And as far as Berrios goes, this guy, he does have good stuff. Again, he had a rough start, his first two starts weren’t very good I think it was. Then after that, he had a couple really good ones. And I remember the one against Boston that I had him going back about four or five weeks ago, he was good. But then he comes back again. And it’s really weird. And he was the same way when he was in Minnesota as well, too. And I think that Toronto thought, “Okay, we’re going to back this guy with good run support.” He really didn’t have that in Minnesota.

TC Martin:

But you’re right, Jeff, this guy has just been kind of up and down. But they’re hanging with him because they know that he really does have some pretty good stuff. But just haven’t shown. So I don’t know. All right, we got BaseWinner and Nadu on opposite sides here. So here we go. Maybe they have a side food wager, who knows what there.

Jeff Nadu:

We’ll see.

TC Martin:

But Jeff’s giving up 115 and BaseWinner’s going to take Toronto +105. You know me, I’m always going to institute the food bets, guys. Because you know, we all love food.

Jeff Nadu:

Well, listen-

Mark Borchard:

Jeff doesn’t like nachos though. Who doesn’t like nachos?

Jeff Nadu:

No, no, no, no. That’s untrue. Listen, if I’m in-

TC Martin:

Nachos, isn’t a meal. I mean, come on.

Mark Borchard:

You can make it a meal if you do it right.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m big on apps. If I’m in Sedona, Arizona, I’m going to have a nacho. Just that simple. That’s nacho country. Now you have to understand food is from a palata perspective, you only eat certain things in certain places. For instance, I got to be honest, I’m just being fair. If I go to Orem, Utah, I ain’t eating a cheese steak there. I’m not eating pizza there. I’m just not. It’s not that it’s not probably good-

TC Martin:

What are you eating in Orem, Utah?

Mark Borchard:

What’s a regional there? I want to know.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, so I’m going to eat… I feel like I could get a great haddock in Utah or some fish, a nice fresh fish or something. But I’m not eating… Now, again, I would love to meet all you guys and listen, I’ll tell you right now, and this is the classy gentleman, standup guy that I am, you never pay for a meal when you’re with me, I will. That’s just how it goes. When you eat, I pay. That’s how it works. So as far as food bets, we don’t need to make any food bets. Because when you’re with me, I will pay. But yeah, I’m not going to eat… If I go to see Mark, I’ll definitely have a nacho. Absolutely.

TC Martin:

Well, I think if we’re going to meet, we have to meet obviously on my home trip here in Vegas, because no better culinary delights than right here. And I will take you guys to the finest places in Las Vegas.

Jeff Nadu:

I wouldn’t doubt that.

Mark Borchard:

I think that’s a good point. Because you get all those fancy restaurants in The Strip, right? Do you go to those?

TC Martin:

Absolutely. Absolutely.

Jeff Nadu:

Well listen, TC, here’s what I was thinking. And look, one of the things that legalized gambling has been way behind on, and I’m just going to be very honest here, and one of the reasons I may be out in Las Vegas down towards the end of the summer, there’s been no place on the east coast to set up a super contest. I don’t know why. I don’t know why any book hasn’t done it. It’s a complete waste of time. They should be doing it. So I want to do it this year. I’m going to come out it and set that up. So maybe I’ll come out for a few days and we can all link up, absolutely.

TC Martin:

Absolutely. There it is. All right. And yeah, so many great contest whether, there’s survivor contests or… Yeah, fantastic contests here in Vegas. So good time to be here anytime. So okay, there we go. Toronto and St. Louis, these guys are on each side here.

TC Martin:

All right, next up we go to the Guardians. I can’t believe I said that right. The Guardians. I don’t want to say that. Cleveland.

Mark Borchard:

I’m starting to like it though. You know what, it’s starting to kind of get ingrained in me.

Jeff Nadu:

It’s a bad name though.

TC Martin:

It’s a bad name. And again, you’re messing with the tradition here. And how many announcers continue to say Indians? They say it all the time. And then half of the time they don’t even realize it, so they don’t even apologize because it’s just been in their DNA for all these years. So anyway, Astros -200, Guardians +170. Total in this game at Minute Maid Park eight and a half. Jeff, some thoughts on the Astros? I know you’ve been joining me here recently on the ‘Stros here. I like them myself, but I’ll let you go ahead and lead off here.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, the offense is getting going a little bit for them. And I will say, I think Cleveland are an underrated town. Gets a lot of shit I guess. But I don’t know why. I think it looks a pretty good town.

TC Martin:

I think you’re right.

Jeff Nadu:

But that being said, this offense has been solid. I thought they’d kind of tail off. They were really good at the beginning of the season. They had a week or two where they were scoring seven runs a game. They’re still top 10. It’s a pretty good offense. But I don’t know who’s pitching for Houston. mlb.com doesn’t have a starter, so I don’t [inaudible 00:22:11].

TC Martin:

Oh, I’m sorry. I should have went over that. Sorry. So we got Plesac going for Cleveland and Garcia for the Astros.

Jeff Nadu:

Okay, yeah. So Zach Plesac, I didn’t know that until you just told me that. Zach Plesac, we have not seen, I don’t believe, this season. Have we? Have we seen Plesac?

TC Martin:

Oh, yeah. Plesac had a horrible one. He’s given up 16 runs.

Jeff Nadu:

I haven’t seen any numbers on him.

TC Martin:

He’s given up 16 runs in his last four starts and he’s not a strikeout guy at all. Heck, this guy only has 23 strikeouts in 38 innings this year. So [inaudible 00:22:39] anybody.

Jeff Nadu:

You know why I said we haven’t seen Plesac, it’s because I search Dan Plesac as opposed to Zach.

Mark Borchard:

He hasn’t pitched this year.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, no, he’s a commentator now.

TC Martin:

Or in the last decade.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, he’s a commentator on MLB Network. That’s where it was.

Mark Borchard:

It’s like, “No recent form on Dan Plesac. What’s going on here?”

Jeff Nadu:

But no, you’re right. Plesac’s been horrible. Yeah, look, TC, you’ve had a good read on Houston. And I feel like I’m not going to jump in front of you. I don’t have any issue in playing it either. Maybe an over. Honestly, I know Houston’s been a great under team this year. But as you alluded to, Plesac is not good. I always tag Houston for about five runs. Garcia’s solid, but I don’t love him either. He’s not one of my favorite Houston guys. And this is a Cleveland team that has a pretty good offense. These are bullpens, particularly in Cleveland. Both pretty good. So I guess you might not get much to there. I’m just undecided on this one. I’m going to mention to you though, do what you got to do, you like Houston.

TC Martin:

Well, and this is more of a play against Cleveland and Plesac too, both from an offensive perspective and pitching as well too. So I mentioned Plesac, but you got to remember, Cleveland’s last six of their last eight games. And here’s what I like about Houston, guys. Like I said last week, they’re completely healthy. Watch Altuve let off of another homer twice in the last few days again, he’s rolling at that top of the order-

Jeff Nadu:

Well, that’s not something you’re going to get from him much ever. He doesn’t hit home runs.

TC Martin:

What? What’d you say?

Jeff Nadu:

He doesn’t hit home runs, Altuve.

TC Martin:

Yeah, he does. He hit over 30, Jeff, last year.

Jeff Nadu:

Jose Altuve? Does he really? No way.

Mark Borchard:

He does a lot of stuff, Jeff.

TC Martin:

Yeah. And here’s the thing about the Astros-

Jeff Nadu:

He never hit home runs [inaudible 00:24:23].

Mark Borchard:

I wouldn’t consider him like a typical home run guy, but he has.

TC Martin:

It’s amazing.

Jeff Nadu:

But again, I’ve never remembered him hitting home runs.

TC Martin:

Yeah, he does. And especially in that park, it’s really conducive. And he’s like a first ball hitter. Aside from Rickey Henderson, he has the most lead off homers of anybody. May even have surpassed him by now.

Jeff Nadu:

That’s crazy. I never realized that.

TC Martin:

Yeah. And here’s what I like about Houston. It doesn’t matter, they’re winning no matter what. They’ve won 16 of the last 20, they win low scoring games, they can win high scoring games. Garcia, not great last outing. But he usually doesn’t have two bad outings in a row. And again, I think Michael Brantley’s going to have a good Series 2. Anytime he faces Cleveland, his ex team, he’s going to bust… Again, the Astros are healthy. I like him. It’s worth giving him a shot here. So I’m going to ride the hot hand. And again, like I said, Cleveland and Plesac, they’ve lost six out of their last eight. Not a big fan of this Cleveland team. BaseWinner, what do you got?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I think that if I’m looking at my line, I’ve got it -196 for Houston. So I don’t disagree with your play, but I think that you have to be careful when you’re playing these -150 to -200. As a rule, they’re just not a good bet over the last. And I’m narrowing it down to since last year’s season and this year’s season. And you have a sample of 855 games where your favorite’s been between -150 and -200. Well, they’ve won 60% of the time, or 59.4 to be exact. But you’ve lost 82.8 units if you were to bet this group collectively. And the reason is, on an average line of -170, you need to hit 63% of the time to be successful with that.

Mark Borchard:

So for me, unless I really love a play that’s -170, and I’ll put them out there every now and then, I’m going to try to stay out of that particular range. I don’t think long term it has profit. And I think that specifically in these two seasons, last year and this year, where the ball’s a little bit different, I think that an 800 sample is a pretty decent sample to rely on. And so for me, I’m going to pass on it. Although the BaseWinner line would say that there would be value there at -170, TC.

TC Martin:

And I’ll say this, or I guess refute that to a certain degree, Mark, is that you just laid out a stat that you’re playing every game and you’re going to hit 59.4. Well, I’m not betting every favorite of that. I’m going to pick and choose. And I don’t know what my record is of lane -170. But like I told you guys before, I’m going to bet good teams. And as the season goes on when we start to see this bigger discrepancy, you’re going to have to lay this if you want to bet good teams.

Mark Borchard:

Well, no I wouldn’t-

TC Martin:

I’m not the guy who’s just going to shy away and say, “Oh, I’m going to take a mediocre team or a bad team and just because they’re getting plus money.” I’m going to bet good teams in good situations. There are going to be games like the Astros and the Dodgers and the Yankees, they’re going to be heavy favorites like today. Gerrit Cole, do I think the Yankees are going to win? I do. But I’m not about delay 333 with Gerrit Cole against a team that he may lose. Yankees will probably win. They’ll probably win going away. But again, I just don’t think you can make that statement saying, “Well, if all of these teams are…” Because I’m not betting all those teams. I think it’s picking and choosing.

Mark Borchard:

And I’m not saying that I’m not going to put out a -165 if I like the game. But I think that if you’re talking about cherry picking games, I’d rather cherry pick out of a sample that… And so it’s kind of an unfair comparison to you because even if you take any sample, you’re probably going to have a losing record with it just because of the juice involved in betting baseball.

TC Martin:

Yeah, absolutely.

Mark Borchard:

So maybe that’s a little bit unfair. But I think that even if you account for the juice, it’s not a good sample to go cherry picking in. And that’s just for me. I’m not saying that I’m not going to play a -170 favorite, maybe I’ll play three tomorrow. They’ll be like, “BaseWinner, you said not to play.” But I think you just have to be cautious.

TC Martin:

[Inaudible 00:28:33] 240, 250 favorites, yeah.

Mark Borchard:

My whole point is, and I would argue that those -200 favorites over a larger sample have fared a lot better. In fact, just off the top of my head, over the last three seasons, they have like a 4.1% return on investment in the positive. And looking at a big group of game. So I’d rather cherry pick out that batch than cherry pick out of the batch that has a losing ROI. But I’m not saying that it’s a bad idea to play a certain range of plays just 100% of the time. Plus, I respect you on Houston too. So I’m not going to [inaudible 00:29:12].

TC Martin:

They’re not going to win everyday.

Mark Borchard:

I don’t know if I’m going to ever play against Houston because I know you’re getting a call from Dusty Baker in the morning with lineups and injuries and they’re emailing you [inaudible 00:29:20].

TC Martin:

No, no. Don’t put that out there. Don’t put that out there.

Mark Borchard:

They’re emailing advance data. I’m just teasing you. I shouldn’t say that, man. They’re going to do an investigation.

TC Martin:

Exactly.

Mark Borchard:

On MLB BetUS Show, inside information. We’re all going to go to jail.

TC Martin:

All right. You guys are going to love it when I go back there for a week, because I go back there a couple times and I’ll definitely be there for the playoffs. Because [inaudible 00:29:41] and I’ll be doing the show from there. So you guys will enjoy that when I’m back in Houston doing the show here in about a month and a half. We’ll have some fun with that. All right. I’ll make sure I have some good food.

Mark Borchard:

Can I ask dusty about his biometric data on his starting pitcher that night? That would probably be not allowed, right?

TC Martin:

Okay. Anyway, moving right along here. I will take the Astros today. So let’s make it 17 out of 21 with this one. And I guess the BetUS line now is down to 190. So, all right.

TC Martin:

Next up, Milwaukee and San Diego in this contest. We’ve got Adrian Houser going for the Brewers. Nick Martinez, that guy that we love going against, for the Padres here. And basically I pick him in this game. Padres -109 at Petco Park. Total in this game eight shaded towards the under -120. BaseWinner, I got a feeling, are you going against Nick Martinez again?

Mark Borchard:

I’m not, man. It was so weird because I looked at this and when my model came up with a -154 projection, I looked and I said, “Well, how could this be that Martinez is in my model at 103?” Which is right about league average. And then I looked into the granular stats and I think that I should actually upgrade him. I think that the model’s a little bit bearish on him based on some of his most recent performances. And really this goes back to the last 365 days where his strikeout percentage, 23.1. And I know that’s only six games, but that’s all this guy has. So it’s six games, it’s 23.1%. And that’s better than Houser’s strikeout percentage is 16.8%. Both walk percentage is about the same, 11% each.

Mark Borchard:

But if you look at his K-BB, he’s 148th out of 266. And you say, “Well, that’s not that great, BaseWinner. But then if you take a look at Houser, his K-BB 237th, out of 266. And so that’s pretty much the reason why this handicap is where it is. I’m just not a big fan of Houser. For me, you got to get a lot of strikeouts and you got to suppress walks. And he does neither well. So that’s why I have this at at -154. And really, the bullpen situation is it’s one of those things where, okay, I’ll play the full game. I don’t know, maybe the better play would’ve been to play the first five innings, but I didn’t want to pay that kind of price.

Mark Borchard:

I’ll take Martinez as kind of a coin flip in a game where I think that, just based on my numbers… And it’s only six games, so you got to take that with the grain of salt. But based on that, Martinez definitely better than Houser. And the Stuff+ is about equal. Martinez at 35 percentile, Houser 44 percentile. So we don’t lose a lot there. So for all those reasons, I’m going with the Padres, Nick Martinez, believe it or don’t, and that’s going to be the play that I’m going to make tonight.

TC Martin:

No, Doogie Howser for the BaseWinner. What about you, Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I’m surprised. I was surprised to see this one on the card, to be honest, from Mark. I think this is as tough a game as you could find. I don’t see any edge on either side. While I’m not in love with Houser either, I don’t really like Martinez. These are two really good teams, good bullpens, good lineups. There’s just not a lot to shake out. There’s no value to really have on the bone to me in this one. Look, if I’m getting a dog price of one of these two teams, maybe. But I’m not going to get that because of the numbers and where these teams are. I think it’s a very difficult game. I think to me, it’s as big a coin flip as you could find. I wish Mark the best. I’m not on it though.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Good luck with you on this one, Mark. I think Mark’s also betting the Padres’ bats as well too. They’ve been picking it up big time here too. And Milwaukee have been pretty inconsistent. So we’ll root you on man. San Diego -109 for the BaseWinner.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, the Padres, it’s pretty amazing where they stand right now. They’re only, I think, a half game back off the Dodgers, which I think’s amazing. The Dodgers 27-13, the Padre’s 27-14. And maybe it’s their year. I was really high on the Padres last year and they just flopped basically. So maybe it’s a year later. I know that they have really good line drive rates. And maybe in today’s day and age with the flat… Now the balls are flat. They’re storing them in the [inaudible 00:34:13] they’re actually coming flat. But I won’t go off on the ball. We’ll save that for another day. But maybe it’s maybe it’s their year because of the type of hitting they’re doing. And they’re back at home. Houser, I just can’t… I don’t mind bending against him. We’ll see how it goes.

TC Martin:

I think this is the first time you’ve been on Nick Martinez too, right?

Mark Borchard:

I think it’s in my life.

TC Martin:

Yeah. And that’s the thing too, with the Padre pitching, long term, yeah, it’s hard to-

Mark Borchard:

If you look at Martinez, his expected strikeout rate, he’s getting a lot of swinging strikes, which is a big deal for a pitcher 28%, 24%, 25%, 23%, 34%. He’s only had one that’s been below average at 19%. So I really had to sharpen my pencil on that one and look into his starts and they’re pretty good. So I guess we’ll see what happens. I don’t feel great about it emotionally, but I can’t argue with my model. If I change the model all the time, then why even have a model? That’s kind of my attitude on it.

TC Martin:

I didn’t know a sabermetrics guru owned a pencil. Jeff, do you own a pencil? I don’t think I have a pencil anywhere in my house.

Mark Borchard:

I actually do.

Jeff Nadu:

No, I don’t really know why you’d need a pencil for anything. Cross it out

Mark Borchard:

You have to write stuff down. Like when you have a good thought, you have to write it down.

Jeff Nadu:

Look, look, look. Let me show you something, Mark. I do. But for me, I don’t really make mistakes. If I do, just cross it out right over the top.

Mark Borchard:

There you go.

TC Martin:

No No. 2 pencil with the eraser for anyone here. All right. We got the BaseWinner with the Padres at 109. Next up, Mets on the road against San Francisco tonight. Giants a $1.40 favorite. If you like the Mets, +125. Low total there in the spacious park there in San Francisco. Total is 7.5, shade to the over though at -120. David Peterson against Alex Cobb. You guys know how I feel about corn on the cob, but I’m actually going to go with corn on the cob today. I love corn on the cob, not necessarily Alex Cobb, but this is more of a play against David Peterson. But I will start off by saying that the Giants have been swept last weekend, as we noted, by San Diego. However, they lost three very close games in this. They got blown out yesterday. Bad pitching match up there for the Giants.

TC Martin:

But Cobb, I’m going to throw out his last start because it was at Colorado. But before that, he had pretty two good home outings. He was actually really sharp, had 14 strikeouts combined in those two games. But this is more of a play for me about Peterson. David Peterson got called up from the Minors three weeks ago to come in and start after an injury happened for the Mets. He started, I think it was the first game of the double header against Atlanta three weeks ago. Wasn’t good at all. Gave up three earned runs in five innings, walked a few guys, got sent back down immediately. He was called back up just yesterday because Max Scherzer, as we know, is out on the IL right now. So this guy had to travel over 3000 miles from Syracuse, going to San Francisco. The longest trip you could possibly have here.

TC Martin:

And again, I just think there’s a good spot for San Francisco. They’re they played pretty well in those close losses. I don’t like Peterson and I just think is a good spot for the Giants. So I’m going to take a shot with the Giants, even though I’m not crazy about Cobb, better at home. Peterson on the road with the travel, I’m going to go Giants. BaseWinner?

Mark Borchard:

No, I think that you get an edge in starting pitching for sure. I’ve got Cobb in my model at 12% better than average. And I have him with a Stuff+. And to me, this is kind of like how good has this guy been from a granular standpoint? How good is his velocity? How good is his pitch movement? And he’s in the 77th percentile, which is pretty close to tops on the board. In fact, there’s only one guy on the board that has a better Stuff+ number than he does today. Actually, I lied, two guys, Gerrit Cole and Chris Archer. But he’s right up there. So I don’t think there’s any shame in backing Alex Cobb with his Stuff+ number.

Mark Borchard:

And we use that Stuff+ number to evaluate Peterson and he’s in the 36th percentile. So I don’t think it’s an awful play based on that handicap. I can’t get over the disparity in offense. I like the Mets here. They’re fourth ranked against the respective split, and the Giants are 22nd ranked against the respective split. And I do like the bullpen of the Mets better. At least given the particular setups with these guys. I’m just not high on the San Francisco bullpen. To me, if I played it, I’d probably go first five, because you do have a big difference in that starting pitcher, TC.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Guys, I’ll try to say this as quick as possible. I’m all for lawn care, but I continue to wonder, and maybe I need to ask, but these lawn people do lawn care every day. I don’t know why they don’t pick a day and just do it all. It’s Friday, it’s 7:00 AM, they’re just blowing. How many days a week do people need to do lawn care here? I don’t get it.

TC Martin:

Jeff, they need to get paid. I think that’s what it is. They don’t want to back it all into one day. They want to take tenants’ money and landlords’ money. That’s what they want to do.

Mark Borchard:

I thought it was raining back there, Jeff.

TC Martin:

They need work every day.

Jeff Nadu:

They literally blow the grass every day. I don’t understand it. It’s wild.

Mark Borchard:

I thought it was raining there.

Jeff Nadu:

No, no. It’s been very nice.

Mark Borchard:

They’re doing landscaping in the rain, forget it. He’s on a podcast. I’m going after that guy.

Jeff Nadu:

No, I love when it rains around here, because there’s no one ever here. That’s when they don’t come.

Jeff Nadu:

But, look, on this game, I don’t have much. I don’t really trust Peterson, as you alluded to, TC. As far as Cobb, I don’t like him either. I don’t really trust this lineup, particularly there, San Francisco. That’s my knock. They don’t hit lefties real well. So this will be one of those… I have a weird feeling Peterson’s going to go five innings and not give up a run for some reason because the Giants just aren’t good against lefthanded pitching. But I don’t have much in this one. I didn’t play it.

TC Martin:

Yeah. And Belt is out now too. And he’s a left hander, so I don’t know if he would’ve played anyway tonight or whatever. And he’s been hurt, so that’s a little bit of a concern moving forward with the Giants, but again-

Mark Borchard:

Hey, TC, I didn’t get a chance to ask you this the other day. Are you still on a high off Alonso’s home run on Thursday? How great was that?

TC Martin:

That was awesome. Because I thought we were staring at another extra inning loser there. Like, “Here we go.” Because they gave away the game basically in the top of the ninth. And of course we’re talking about the Mets. Was that the Mets? And who were they playing that game?

Mark Borchard:

It was the Cardinals. It was the Cardinals. And it was such an awful way because Edwin Diaz gave up a swinging bunt, then the guy steals the base, and then it was a hard play. The third baseman, he didn’t make it. And so you get a swinging bunt-

TC Martin:

Ball never left the infield and I thought we’re going to go down.

Mark Borchard:

Exactly. And so you’re just bitter about it. And then all of a sudden it’s like… I mean, that was a shot too.

TC Martin:

So I was in the car, Mark, with that and I was getting ready to go do my show. And it was like five minutes before showtime and I wanted to hang with this game as long as I could. And then Alonso’s up and then the announcer says, “Boom, there it goes. That was long gone.” I said, “Okay, boom.” Turn off. Cash. Very nice.

Mark Borchard:

That’s great. That was great.

TC Martin:

That was a weird game.

Mark Borchard:

I just don’t know if that played into your handicap because you feel so good about the Mets right now.

TC Martin:

No, I’m going against the Mets again.

Mark Borchard:

Oh, you’re going against, right. Why would I say that? Because you’re going against the Mets.

TC Martin:

Anyway, but you’re just thinking, “Mets, Mets.” There we go. Because we had action on the Mets, yeah.

Mark Borchard:

I don’t know, man.

TC Martin:

I’m not a big Mets fan, guys. With the injuries and everything, now with the Scherzer thing, I mean they’ve got injuries that they’re starting pitching. They got injuries in their everyday lineup. Yeah, I don’t know. I don’t know. I don’t know.

TC Martin:

All right, let’s go to our Q&A here. We got questions. And Mark, our good friend, Mark Holmes wants to know what we think of the Minnesota Twins today. Guys, any thoughts about the Twinkies today?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, look, Elvin Rodriguez the first time starter. So what’s my number for him? It’s a 106. And I don’t know. I think that the thing’s priced about where it needs to be. I’ve got Archer 88th percentile from a Stuff+ standpoint. It’s just hard for me to this game either way, because it’s a big price. Archer’s probably going to pitch about four innings. That’s about all he’s gone. The Minnesota bullpen’s been good though. So I can’t really get behind either side on it. I’m just not a big fan. Unless there’s something that’s out of the ordinary on these first time starters, it’s hard for me to go either way on them.

TC Martin:

I looked at the Twins in this game and like you said, Archer, what happened to this guy? He was more than decent. He was a good pitcher back years ago with Tampa Bay. But this guy just can’t get it right. He is just so hittable. And I think you’re right. He’s overvalued at this price here. But they’re playing the Tigers, against a bad pitcher, probably win the game, you would think, with Minnesota. But just at that price it’s… I don’t know. What about you, Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Chris Archer makes $3.5 million, by the way. Just to let you know. As far as this game, this Detroit lineup is so bad. It’s not close really. They’re the worst offense in baseball by a decent margin, quite honestly. If they can’t hit Archer, I don’t really know what to say. Brieske, he hasn’t looked any good either. Yeah, I kind of want to bet an over, but I don’t trust either lineup so I’m out. Another bad game. There’s a couple of rough matchups on this card today. One I will say, I don’t know if anyone’s mentioned it in the chat or not. I have some interest in maybe the Phillies today with Wheeler. There’s not a lot of success with this Braves lineup against Mr. Wheeler. Phillies hit really lefties and or righties well, so that’s something to talk about. They aren’t going to get full nine at bats in this game. Tucker Davidson, not a guy I’m running the back. So this might be worth the look here today with the Phillies maybe on the runline.

TC Martin:

You know, Jeff, I almost played that game. I looked really hard at Wheeler today, again, in more of a play against Tucker Davidson.

Jeff Nadu:

Or like a first five even. I mean the one knock on the Phillies is if you’re talking about contending teams, you look at the bullpens in Major League Baseball, let’s just say the first seven or eight, Colorado, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Seattle, Washington, Philly. What is the common theme on most of those teams? They’re all awful, really outside of maybe Seattle or Philly. Philly’s bullpen sucks. Maybe a first five minus a half. Just have the lead. This looks like a great matchup for a first five minus a half, Wheeler against Davidson. I like it.

TC Martin:

Yeah, I’m with you on that. I was very close to pulling the trigger there. BaseWinner, any thoughts on any-

Mark Borchard:

I think it just depends if you’re you’re fan of the Tucker Carlson show or not. Oh, oh, you’re talking Tucker Davidson.

TC Martin:

Tucker Davidson.

Mark Borchard:

Oh, I was thinking Tucker Carlson. Yeah, I guess it depends on if you’re a fan of Tucker Carlson or not. No, I don’t know. Look, I think that the first five would be the way to play it. The one thing that kind of shied me away from this game, TC and Jeff, was Wheeler has been really good. He’s been three 90 percentile starts in a row, but his Stuff+ is worse than Tucker Carlson’s. I mean, Tucker Davidson’s. So for me, I look at that and I’m like, “It’s not as great as I thought it was right off the top.” And then Philly on the road’s just awful. Their home-road splits from a money line standpoint are the worst in baseball. So I just can’t get excited about it.

Jeff Nadu:

Listen, I’m going to say one thing about the name Tucker. Okay? And this doesn’t have anything to do with Carlson, even though he could be labeled a douche bag, whether you like him or not. Is Tucker not the biggest douche bag name on the history of the planet? If you’re named Tucker, you’re just a douche goofy guy.

TC Martin:

Tucker Barnhart. There’s another one, right?

Jeff Nadu:

There was a guy years ago, when I was a kid in the 2000s, this guy was a somewhat popular, it was a guy called Tucker Max. He was like this author. And he was this just buffoon. He would constantly talk about like his… If anyone remembers like Girls Gone Wild, he used to do a lot of stuff with that, like a wannabe Howard Stern, where he would always talk about his sexual encounters, and he was just a goof. He’d always date people that I probably wanted to date but couldn’t. You know, one of those guys, douchey guy.

TC Martin:

How about Tucker in Something About Mary? Remember that?

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t think I’ve seen that film.

TC Martin:

Here we go again. One of the most iconic movies. Every time I bring up an iconic movie, you guys don’t get it. I don’t understand.

Jeff Nadu:

Listen, I only watch-

TC Martin:

Something About Mary? Are you kidding me?

Jeff Nadu:

I’m not saying it’s-

TC Martin:

Tucker with the thing [inaudible 00:47:40].

Mark Borchard:

How do you find time to watch all these movies?

TC Martin:

Pizza delivery boy.

Jeff Nadu:

We can’t all be like you, Mark, who’s constantly watching Moneyball for the 8,000th-

Mark Borchard:

I don’t see how he finds time to watch all these movies and memorize all the character names on these movies.

TC Martin:

This was like [inaudible 00:48:02] ago, guys.

Mark Borchard:

He’s call 85,000 WNBA games and doing 15 shows a day. Where do you find the time, TC?

TC Martin:

Because I’m [inaudible 00:48:07] back in the day.

Jeff Nadu:

Wait, you do WNBA? I don’t think I knew that.

Mark Borchard:

He does. He’s the voice of your Las Vegas Aces.

Jeff Nadu:

Oh really?

Mark Borchard:

Yes.

Jeff Nadu:

I didn’t know that actually, I don’t think.

TC Martin:

Got to game today. Got to save my voice. I know.

Jeff Nadu:

Oh, wow.

TC Martin:

Aces and Sparks tonight. There we go.

Jeff Nadu:

Okay. I didn’t know that.

TC Martin:

Real quick, we got to get going. Rockies, Pirates. Chad Kuhl going to gets his former team. Kuhl, Brubaker. Kind of another ugly game, right?

Jeff Nadu:

Come on, man. Listen, who asked about this?

TC Martin:

That was Jefferson in Dirty Deeds.

Mark Borchard:

Dirty Deeds.

Jeff Nadu:

So here’s what I’ll say. As many of you know, I like the Rockies. I don’t like them on the road. Their road-home splits are a disgrace, quite honestly. They just don’t hit on the road. That being said, JT Brubaker is a mess. This guy should go sell heating and air conditioning or something. That’s what he sounds like he would do. He’s not a good pitcher. I have nothing on this one. I would stay away. Real quick. TC, could you maybe put in a good word to Asia Wilson for me? I’m a big fan.

TC Martin:

I’ll definitely tell her, “There is this guy in Philadelphia who gets his haircut religiously on Friday nights. Asia, there’s this guy that’s crazy about you.”

Jeff Nadu:

I got a good vibe, man. She’s about a foot taller than me maybe, but-

TC Martin:

Oh definitely. Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

I like her. I’m a big fan. I like defense. I know she’s a good defense player. I’m a big Gamecock fan. Shout out to Asia. So let her know I said, “What’s up?”

TC Martin:

I will let her know.

Mark Borchard:

[inaudible 00:49:33] broadcast.

TC Martin:

Maybe I can get her to give you a shout out, Jeff. There you go.

Jeff Nadu:

Oh, I’d love that.

TC Martin:

Yeah. See if you listen to my show, Jeff, you could hear Asia. You could hear all the Aces on my show on a regular basis.

Jeff Nadu:

Listen, I’m not going to lie, man. She was drafted right? The night she was drafted… Bro, I’m telling you beautiful woman. I love a woman that can play sport. She’s sporty. Got that look. Love her. Love Asia.

TC Martin:

Hey, great girl. Great family. She’s just great. She’s one of my favorites. No doubt about it.

Jeff Nadu:

Good stuff.

TC Martin:

All right. We appreciate the Q&A. Jeff, you’ll have to listen. Stream the game. You have to listen.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I got to.

TC Martin:

Listen to my play by play tonight. I might give you a shout out tonight, Jeff. I’m going to see if you’re listening. I’m going to give you a shout out. Go ahead and stream the game tonight.

Jeff Nadu:

I might have to do that, honestly.

TC Martin:

Do it. I’m going to say something, I’m going to put you to the test. I’m going to give you one of those subtle shoutouts in a Asia Wilson reference tonight.

Jeff Nadu:

All right.

TC Martin:

And I’ll even say… If you don’t want to stay up too late, Jeff, I’m going to do it sometime in the second quarter.

Jeff Nadu:

Okay. This game starts at 10 o’clock. Okay. Perfect. Where do I listen to this? I might have to do this.

TC Martin:

Okay. You find ESPN Las Vegas.

Jeff Nadu:

Oh yeah, sure.

TC Martin:

ESPN Las Vegas, and a radio, and stream it live. There it is.

Jeff Nadu:

Here’s what I’m going to do to have fun with this game, this is some real degenerate shit right here. I’m going to bet the game.

TC Martin:

Now you’re talking.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m going to lay the 10 and a half with the Aces tonight because the Sparks stink. Asia’s going to have a huge game. I’m going to say 98-80 Aces.

TC Martin:

Okay. You want to lay that. How about this, Jeff? I don’t know if you do… Because you and I haven’t talked too much of betting basketball. I don’t know if you do the base winner with the money line parlays or you do the teaser. Good two team teaser tonight, Aces to the Celtics.

Jeff Nadu:

Okay.

TC Martin:

What do you think of that?

Jeff Nadu:

Listen, let me-

TC Martin:

That way you don’t have to sweat if they win by five or six.

Jeff Nadu:

TC, I love you. I do. You’re one of my favorite people in this. You’re a good guy. That being said, I don’t want to get in trouble, I don’t want to get this channel in trouble. I effing in can’t stand and despise basketball teasers. I think it’s the stupidest bet on the face of the planet to make. I don’t get it. So what do you think? They’re going to win by seven, TC? Is that what you think? Or six? I don’t get it.

TC Martin:

No, I’m just saying it protects yourself, Jeff. If they win by four or five, I’m just saying…

Jeff Nadu:

No, no, no. 10 and a half. They’re going to blow this team out.

TC Martin:

Okay, there you go.

Jeff Nadu:

Mark Davis is going to be there with the haircut like me, rocking it. Let’s do it.

TC Martin:

That’s my guy, Mark Davis. No doubt. All right, man-

Jeff Nadu:

Do you actually know him, seriously?

TC Martin:

Yes, of course. I work for the man.

Jeff Nadu:

TC, the internet will go nuts if you got a picture of me and him together. Everyone always hits me up, they’re like, “Yo, you got the haircut as Mark Davis.” Also, Mark, I know you’ll like this, before we wrap this up, I know we’re a little late. Did anyone know that Arby’s doesn’t sell hamburgers? I never knew that. I don’t eat fast food. But they don’t sell hamburgers. They actually do now though. They sell a Wagyu Steakhouse Burger. And according to them, it is the best, most high quality burger the market has ever seen. Sounds interesting.

Mark Borchard:

It is.

TC Martin:

I’m a big Wagyu guy. I’m a big Wagyu steak guy. So when you’re saying a Wagyu… And I actually had a great Wagyu burger think when I was in New Orleans for the final war.

Jeff Nadu:

Nice.

TC Martin:

So yeah, I don’t think Arby’s can touch that though, Jeff. I mean, it’s a low grade Wagyu that they’re having. If that was case, they’d have to charge $29.99 for it.

Jeff Nadu:

Man, that sounds so good. Doesn’t that sound good, Mark? Like a beautiful a Peroni or Stella, a nice cold beer with a beautiful Wagyu burger. Maybe some-

Mark Borchard:

Now you got me thinking of the Arby’s roast beef sandwich. I think there was a period in my life where I went to Arby’s for lunch and I got a roast beef sandwich literally like three months in a row. And that fueled my handicap. I’m serious. There was an Arby’s [inaudible 00:53:22].

Jeff Nadu:

There you go.

Mark Borchard:

Boom, I got it. So I did know that they did not have hamburgers.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, well, they do now.

TC Martin:

Jeff, you’re going to have to start following me closely with my food picks and everything. And then especially when I go to Freddy’s, which you’re probably not familiar with there, with the Jalapeno Pepper Jack Burger, which I’m going to down in about two hours from now.

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t eat fast food, but that does sound pretty good. I will say, I’ll be listening to ESPN Las Vegas tonight where TC Martin… I was going to say Rivers, because I’m thinking of TJ. But yeah, we’re going to do that tonight.

Mark Borchard:

I’m going to lay the 10 and a half too. What the hell?

Jeff Nadu:

Let’s go.

TC Martin:

There you go, guys. Maybe I’ll give you both a shout-out.

Mark Borchard:

I’m going to put a few bucks on it. Yeah, why not?

Jeff Nadu:

Come on.

TC Martin:

There you go. They’ve been on a roll. They’ve been on a covering machine as of late too, guys. So there you go. Aces, 6-1, 4-0 at home. There you go.

TC Martin:

All right, we want to thank everyone for joining us. Remember to like and subscribe to the show and the channel. Click that bell, get the notifications when we go live. We’re here Monday through Friday, 12 noon Eastern time right here. Make sure you also follow us on Twitter here @betustv. And of course follow us all on Twitter. Our Twitter handles have been up as well too. All right, guys, have a good one. Look forward to cashing some tickets and seeing you tomorrow.

TC Martin:

And one more time, wrapping up the best bets. Nadu’s got the Cardinals -115. BaseWinner got Toronto. They’re going head to head in this one. BaseWinner’s got the Padres -109, I’m on the Dodgers runline, Houston and the Giants tonight. And I was so close, BaseWinner. I was so close today to jumping on you, but I knew Jeff would’ve gone crazy. I was thinking about doing the parlay. I was thinking about doing the parlay with the Dodgers to the Astros, the $2 favorites there and getting plus money. Real close to doing it.

Jeff Nadu:

I will say though, Mark, the rat that he is, little weasel, doesn’t mention no Paul Blackburn again. Another great start on Friday night. That’s [inaudible 00:55:22].

Mark Borchard:

I would really, really work on the term, “Great.”

Jeff Nadu:

What a weasel you are, Mark.

Mark Borchard:

Because if look at his three metric number, 24 percentile, that’s not a great start. [inaudible 00:55:33] 13.5.

Jeff Nadu:

They won 4-2. Doesn’t matter. Another win for the boy.

Mark Borchard:

It does. Can hardly wait until Blackburn starts on Wednesday. In fact… I got to see what the line is, right? But I mean, I’m already in.

Jeff Nadu:

Already another big time win for our boy. We’ll see him Wednesday.

Mark Borchard:

That’s right.

Jeff Nadu:

Looking forward to it.

TC Martin:

Our boy, Blackburn. Undefeated.

Mark Borchard:

Blackburn’s last three starts by the base winner metrics have been awful.

Jeff Nadu:

The king of crafty.

TC Martin:

I can hardly wait until Wednesday when Mark pushes all the chips forward against Blackburn.

Mark Borchard:

This guy will have a start where he won’t get any swinging strikes. Every ball that he allows to hit will be hard hit.

Jeff Nadu:

Kiss the ring, Mark,

Mark Borchard:

And he’ll go to three balls on every batter and he’ll win. Okay, right, right. Blackburn [inaudible 00:56:17] he’s great.

Jeff Nadu:

Nine runs in 42 innings, Mark. Kiss the ring, pal.

Mark Borchard:

Kiss the ring, hit per nine, 11.4 median. Kiss that ring, Jeff.

Jeff Nadu:

We’re done. We beat on this one.

TC Martin:

All right. Remember to check out our sportsbook website. Don’t forget for all of your food needs, flashback movie needs, kissing rings, haircuts and a little baseball, this is your show right here. The MLB Show. BetUS TV. We’ll see you tomorrow.

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