MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Baseball Betting Odds [Monday May 30]

Mark:

Yeah, TC. I went to a barbecue yesterday and for the most part, it was really boring. And so I brought my laptop, like you said I would. And I was just kind of sitting there doing my numbers and then I heard barrel rate, barrel rate. I got excited and so I cruised over there. I’m like, “Hey guys, are you guys talking about barrel rate? Let me participate.” And they’re like, “No, not barrel rate, barrel race.” So I was kind of bummed out about that. But anyway, I’m happy to be handicapping on Memorial Day.

TC:

The only guy that I know that goes to a Memorial Day picnic and brings his laptop. I understand guys, maybe with the earpiece and they got the music, you’re listening to a ball game or that sort of thing, or maybe the laptop if you want to watch a ball game, but, no BaseWinner is crunching numbers. That’s what you were doing weren’t you?

Mark:

That’s right. That’s right, dude.

TC:

Jeff, do you want to invite this guy over to your barbecue?

Jeff:

No, I would never invite him. In fact, if anybody ever does do that, I would kick them out immediately. I mean, listen, I’m all for doing what you do, work, you do your thing, but I don’t know. To me, that seems tacky, Mark, just my opinion. But again, I mean, we all have our quirks, I guess.

TC:

Jeff, do you actually believe that story?

Jeff:

Probably. I mean, yeah. I mean, he doesn’t come across to me as a liar. He also comes across as a little weird, so, yeah, I wouldn’t do it, but again, I don’t watch the games. I prefer to just look and see what happens, but, yeah, it doesn’t surprise me.

TC:

There it is. This is geeks over the picnic table, underneath [inaudible 00:02:29].

Mark:

That did not happen, by the way, Jeff. I just made that up, so. Okay.

Jeff:

Oh, you never know with him. I mean for [inaudible 00:02:36]. It wouldn’t have surprised me, honestly.

TC:

There you go. here’s the deal guys. Memorial Day, and I’ve talked about this before. I really enjoy Memorial Day, watching baseball, kicking back, even though I’m going to have to do some work today, but anyway, here’s the deal. Major league baseball has really kind of taken this holiday and this marque day and kind of pushed it on the back burner. There’s four teams that aren’t even playing today. And if you remember back in the day and, Mark, you’re old enough, you remember where Memorial Day was a big day.

TC:

A lot of times people would take their kids to the game, the only time they could maybe go to a game and you had day baseball all throughout, you had quadruple headers on national television and, the NBA, as we know, they take Christmas day as their marquee day to kind of introduce their league and they have their marquee teams playing. The Yankees aren’t even playing today.

TC:

There are some high profile teams that aren’t even playing today. And I think major league baseball has got to revisit this and get this right. They’re treating it like a regular Monday. Well, it’s a travel day. I mean, you should take certain holidays, okay, Memorial Day and 4th of July and Labor Day, because those are your marque baseball days during the course of the season. And major league baseball wants to dress it all up and put the players in different uniforms and themes. And we know that tradition says that they’ve had their highest crowds in the ballparks on these days. But for some reason, major league baseball has got a little disconnect here over the last few years. And it’s evident here today again that travel day, doesn’t matter. Yankees aren’t even playing. It’s kind of strange.

Mark:

Yeah, that’s [inaudible 00:04:21] criminal, that’s criminal. I mean, it’s an American holiday when the Yankees have the opportunity to play and they’re not playing. I agree with you, TC. See, I think it’s awful.

TC:

Yeah. Jeff?

Jeff:

Yeah. Listen, this is one of the reasons that baseball is, I think, for most people taking a backseat. I think either way, you got to have the Yankees there. They’re kind of… I’m not going to say they’re America’s team like the Cowboys, but they do have a huge fan base. They are a really good baseball team. Yeah, I hear you.

TC:

Yeah, it’s just kind of weird, kind of weird.

Mark:

Did I just hear an Eagles fan call the Cowboys America’s team? Oh my gosh.

Jeff:

Why? They are. I mean, I didn’t put that moniker on them.

Mark:

That’s surprising coming from a Philadelphia guy. I would never, my wife would never, even though they are, I agree. I agree. She would never say it as an Eagles fan. She would never admit that the Cowboys are America’s team.

Jeff:

Well, I think calling them America’s team is a slight on them. They have no real fans. It’s just a bunch of weasels that live somewhere in America and root for the Cowboys.

TC:

Yeah. I mean, where did that come from anyway, right? I mean, come on. It’s been there forever. That’s right. America’s team, because they’re popular, because they’re on TV all the time. The good guys wear white, right? They’re the only team that they wear white. Now everyone’s kind of doing it, but yeah. Crazy stuff here. All right guys, enjoy your day here today. Hopefully, you guys are going to get some good food. Jeff, is there food on your docket today? I know you’re not much of a barbecue-er or whatever, but you got a go to you’re going to today?

Jeff:

Actually, my brother’s birthday was Friday night and I was at my mother and father’s on Friday. We had a little barbecue. My parents… So let me tell you about my father, man. This guy, my dad’s obsessed with pool areas. He has this pool area, it’s incredible, a pool house, all this stuff. And now he’s on this kick of, he researched this for months. He bought an oven, a pizza oven directly from Italy and it was delivered to his house on Friday. And now he’s worked all weekend to get this pizza oven, this coal fire, everything.

Jeff:

And I don’t know, he’s insisting that I come and eat pizza that he’s going to make. And I don’t, again, I know he knows how to make pizza, but I don’t know, I kind of just don’t want to do anything today to be honest, but I don’t know. I’ll probably end up going. My family’s there and stuff, but he’s insisting on this pizza thing.

TC:

I’d be curious about the pizza. I mean it’s got to be some real Italian pizza, it sounds like.

Jeff:

The pizza can be made very quick too. On a wood fired oven, your pizza can be done two, three minutes. You can make a lot of pizza quick.

TC:

All right.

Mark:

That sounds good. That sounds good. I’ve been waiting for pizza since the promo, since the Las Vegas Aces’ promo thing and I still haven’t had it. So maybe I’ll do that this afternoon.

TC:

There you go. All right. Well you’re close enough. You can come to Vegas. I can get some real quality pizza, real quality [inaudible 00:07:25].

Mark:

Well, maybe I will when I’m out there TC. That sounds good. I’ll hit you up on that.

TC:

There you go. All right. Well we’re still waiting for both of you guys to reconvene some point during the summer here in Vegas. We should just do the show live from Vegas, guys. That’s what we should do.

Mark:

That’d be fun. That would be fun.

TC:

A little food for thought there. Food, get it? All right. Before we get into today’s games, let’s take a look at where the records are, where we left off last week and a pretty good week overall for everybody there. So there you have it. If you are scoring at home. I love when announcers say, if you’re scoring at home because who does score at home? I mean, well maybe Base Winner does maybe… BaseWinner’s probably one of those guys that goes to the ballpark and brings his score book [inaudible 00:08:08].

Mark:

Well I’ve seen Jeff’s Twitter feed and apparently, he does.

TC:

Oh really? Okay.

Mark:

Well I’m using score in a different sense.

TC:

Oh, I see where you’re going there. Okay. I think the jury’s still out on that, but that’s okay.

Mark:

He says he does. I mean, okay.

Jeff:

I never lie.

TC:

We need Nadu to take some video next time he goes to the bar and…

Jeff:

I don’t kiss and tell TC, but you know.

TC:

You don’t, okay, good man. All right. Guys, three games. We’re going to look at three games today on a somewhat limited card here today. And like I said, mostly you got day baseball here today, but of course you got a couple night games, those west coasters and the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks are going to play some night games today, which doesn’t seem American at all on Memorial day. But that’s okay today.

TC:

All right, so let’s kick it off here today. And let’s first talk about the Houston Astros taking on the Oakland A’s today. Ladies and gentlemen, here it is. It is the Astros and the A’s and today is Paul Blackburn day. How lucky can we get that Paul Blackburn is going today against the Houston Astros. Mark Borchard’s favorite pitcher, or as I should say his least favorite pitcher and the Astros $1.75 favorite, Blackburn undefeated, five and oh, plus 1.55, if you like a little bit of that. And the total, a low one, only seven here today because the lines maker said you have Framber Valdez and Paul Blackburn who have both been winning as of late.

TC:

We know Blackburn’s 5 and 0, Framber Valdez has won his last three starts. And actually the Astros have won Framber’s last four starts altogether here. So BaseWinner, you can take this away on Paul Blackburn Memorial Day.

Mark:

Yeah. Paul Blackburn has certainly lived up to his name as far as I’m concerned because he’s keeping me out of the black and I’m burning a lot of money betting against him. Now, having said that, I’m going to take another shot against this guy. If you look at his three metric starts, his last four starts have been 25th percentile or less. He’s not getting swinging strikes. He’s allowing hard hits or hard contact. And his control really hasn’t been very good over the last three starts. So you add that up and it’s just like he’s such a bet against guy. You look at his stuff plus. His stuff plus is in the 16th percentile. I was actually hoping to get a little bit better price on this game. I’m kind of somewhat surprised that the line’s up around minus 1.70.

Mark:

I’ve got it priced at minus 1.90. So there’s still value as far as the pricing goes, but I think a lot of people on the market, which I’ve got to give the market credit, are seeing the same things that I’m seeing, that we’re seeing, TC, that Blackburn’s although he’s like plus… he’s 9 and 1 in his team starts plus 10.5 units that leads all of baseball. And I’m kind of like I thought the market would be like, “Oh, this guy’s really, he’s won a lot of money. I’m going to bet on this guy.”

Mark:

But they’ve kind of looked into the numbers and I don’t think we’re getting as much value as I thought we would get, but I’ll take it at this price. I’m going to put it into a parlay with the Dodgers and we’ll talk about that game coming up, but that’s how I’m going to play against Blackburn. Again, I think that it’s kind of like having a 50 pound object on a piece of like light string. Eventually the string’s going to break and I think it’s Blackburn’s day to break here, TC.

TC:

Do you view Paul Blackburn as a pinata? Is that what you’re trying to say? You know, put him on the pinata and you’re taking the crowbar or the baseball bat and you’re swinging. And it’s like, “There’s some cracks in there and now today, Jose Altuve, Uriel, Guriel and company, and Yordon Alvarez are going to snap that pinata. And there it is, candies going all over the place. Is that what you’re thinking, BaseWinner?

Mark:

I think that’s a pretty good analogy, actually, because at some point you could only stand a certain amount before it does explode. And I think that maybe this is a good day for him to explode. And so I’m really, I’m encouraged that you’re on the Astros. I really respect your opinion on Houston. And so it’s nice to see that you’re on Houston as well, TC.

TC:

All right. Well, before I get to that, Jeff, go ahead and give us your thoughts. And Jeff and I have actually been on Blackburn in the past, so give us some thoughts on this game, Jeff.

Jeff:

Yeah, I’m going to take Oakland. I like the price here, first of all. Look, first thing I’m going to say is, look, I know Oakland’s offense is not good. We’ve talked about that at length. However, they’re significantly better against left-handed pitchers. Look if 233, an average against is good, look against righties their a disaster. So I am getting a decent matchup for at least them against Valdez who, it’s been okay. He’s been solid for them. You got to be happy with what you’re getting out of him.

Jeff:

But you look at the OPS for Oakland against lefties almost a hundred points higher than against righties. So I like that matchup for them there. Blackburn’s been terrific. He’s been our most talked about pitcher on this show and, look, I’m not going to say that I think long term… Look, I’m sure down the road we’ll start to see Paul Blackburn as the guy he’s been his whole career, but I’m going to keep riding what he’s done so far this year.

Jeff:

Also, you look at the price in this game. It’s concerning if you like Houston, okay? When you pack a team like Houston and they open up 1.80, you do not want to wake up the next day and see that the price has dropped over 10 cents. That’s not how this price should be moving. You look at the MLB bets in this game, 50-50 ticket action, but the actual money, 70% is on Oakland. That’s going to indicate that sharper people are taking Oakland. The price should be going up, not down.

Jeff:

And that’s something that I’ve learned over the years in baseball. I’ll always be behind. Plus I’m getting Blackburn who I like. Is it wild to make the claim that at this day, this moment on May 29th, May 30th, he’s a better pitcher than Valdez? At this point, he is. I don’t know if long term he is, but he is so far. I’m going to back Blackburn again. I’m going to get a great price back at home here.

Jeff:

The concern I have is the bullpen and I consider it a first five, but I like the price I’m getting. And the fact that TC, you know, as maybe just looking at the line just a little bit, it’s not exactly great that this line’s going the opposite way.

TC:

Yeah. And I think that the reason why the line is going the opposite way, I don’t think… again, most sharp guys, they’re not sitting there and they’re watching the game. Sharp guys are all about… they’re kind of like Mark. They’re into the analytics things and they’re looking at this thing and saying, “Look at Blackburn’s numbers and look at the Astros where they didn’t have a big offensive output at all in that series against Seattle.” And I think what they’re looking at, but if you start peeling back the onion, so to speak, or however you want to say here, the Oakland offense, like you said, Jeff, is not good and they’re struggling. I mean, they are struggling big time right now. They’re five for the last 45 in a series at home against the Texas Rangers this last weekend, five for 45 with runners in scoring position.

TC:

They’re not hitting the ball. We know they’re bullpen is a disaster. And as far as Blackburn goes, yes, I was the guy that originally touted Blackburn in the beginning because he was off to a great start. And they said, “Hey, we want to keep this young guy”, but I have seen some cracks in Blackburn over the last couple starts, specifically the control issues. His last start, he was not good at all. He got away with a victory here. He had five walks in that game. He has not gone deep into games lately. And he has not had one outing that he’s had more than five strikeouts in a game, except the very first start this year, which he was very, very good.

TC:

So Blackburn has regressed. And I think this is… and I threw out the pinata thing, I think today is the day where we could see Blackburn get his first loss and actually blow up a little bit because he doesn’t have the run support really behind him. You look at Framber Valdez on the other side, Valdez is the better pitcher. There’s no question.

Jeff:

No he isn’t.

TC:

He’s got, he’s got… yeah, he’s he’s much better, Jeff.

Jeff:

Yeah, real quick. I think you’re grasping for straws a little bit here. I think you’re trying to make things that are not happening, happen. First of all, you said he hasn’t gone deep in games. I mean two of his last four went into the sixth inning. Second of all, you mentioned…

TC:

That’s not deep, Jeff, that’s not deep.

Jeff:

But Houston’s offense is not significantly better. This offense is not great. It hasn’t been good all year. They’re only scoring about four runs a game, just a little bit better than Oakland and Valdez is not the better pitcher. Numbers wise, he has not been as effective as Paul Blackburn. And remember, TC, you’re pulling one start where he had five walks which, by the way, he whether or not. Look, that’s not a great indicator, especially betting him here. But that has not been a large scale sampling of Blackburn. It happened once.

TC:

No, no. And I do like Blackburn as you know, but I’ve been watching him closely, Jeff, for the last two or three starts. And again, he has gotten… I hate to say I agree with Mark here because he used the term he’s been very lucky and he has been, but here’s what I’m going to…

Mark:

You hate… what did you just say? You hate to agree with me?

TC:

No, I didn’t [inaudible 00:17:11].

Mark:

What’s up with that?

TC:

Because you have said [inaudible 00:17:14] was lucky and this and that when he was really going good, but you’re right. The last couple starts, he hasn’t been going good. But here’s some telling stats regarding Blackburn against the Astros guys, okay? He has faced the Astros in four career starts. He has gotten obliterated in every single start. Let me give you some numbers here, okay?

TC:

Now, he hasn’t faced the Astros this year, but he faced them last year. Last time he faced them, he gave up six earned runs in two innings. The time before that, eight earned runs in an inning and a third. Five earned runs before that in five innings. He has three strikeouts in his lifetime in four starts against the Astros. He doesn’t fool this team at all. And you can say, “Okay, well that’s last year or whatever”, but again, he has not been good recently.

TC:

And if you just look at the sheer numbers, I mean, look at these numbers. He’s getting blasted by the Houston Astros. Now, I’m not saying it’s going to happen today. I’m hoping that it happens today. And that’s why I’m going to take Houston on the run line of this game. If the line is 175, 180, whatever it is, I think Houston’s going to snap out. Again, they’re not afraid of this guy and he doesn’t fool you. He doesn’t fool you at all. His stuff is not electric at all. He doesn’t strike people out. He doesn’t go deep into games. I don’t [inaudible 00:18:36]. And again, history against the Astros, not even get out of the second inning in two starts? Yeah. Again, I’m going to take a shot with Houston. I don’t think I’m grasping at straws here. I’m taking the better offense and the better bullpen.

Jeff:

You always take Houston, though.

TC:

Yeah. [inaudible 00:18:55].

Mark:

I think that TC has a pretty good grasp on Houston. I mean, that’s one of the reasons that the show’s been for me…

TC:

[inaudible 00:19:04] don’t play them every day, Jeff. I’ve I’ve said that before.

Jeff:

You definitely do. If we go back in the show, every time the Houston Astros play, you’ve taken them. I’m pretty sure.

Mark:

But I think that’s kind of the value we get when we participate in this show as presenters…

TC:

I play him a lot, there’s no question about it.

Mark:

And I think that’s a value we get as presenters and that’s the value the audience gets too, because what TC said was really interesting about how the Astros match up with Blackburn. And it kind of makes sense from a macro standpoint too, so I’m glad he pointed that out because what Blackburn likes to do is he kind of likes to paint corners and he kind of likes to, “Eh, I’m going to try to get this precision.” And he’s decent at it, but he misses a lot.

Mark:

And I think with the Astros, if you look at their BBK rate and their play discipline stats, they’re up in the top five of baseball. They’re third right now, but they’re sometimes first, sometimes second, but they’re very disciplined from getting the right pitch. And then if you look at the last three starts, expected walk rate for Blackburn.

Mark:

And we’re talking about control right now. And this is just base… our balls divided by pitches, and his expected walk rate, 11%, 11.7% and 15% in his last starts. So I think that we got a guy who’s struggling a little bit with his location, which is kind of his marque. And then they’re facing a team who’s very good at getting a good pitch to hit, waiting, having good plate discipline. And so I think that matches up well. And so I’m glad, TC, that you brought that up because that makes a lot of sense in this particular matchup.

TC:

Yeah. And again, I’m going to play the Astros when I feel there’s an advantage. And I say the same thing all the time as like I’m backing it up so you can look at the days that I’m playing the Astros, but looking it up, I’m not going to bet a Jake Odorizzi or I’m not going to bet maybe a Luis Garcia in a disadvantage matchup.

Mark:

I do have a serious question for you, TC, though.

TC:

Yeah.

Mark:

Are there times when you will bet against the Astros?

TC:

Absolutely.

Jeff:

No.

TC:

Yeah, absolutely. Jeff’s an idiot. He just, he just…

Jeff:

I mean, you have you’ve honestly have not [inaudible 00:21:09].

Mark:

Well, I think that TC knows what he’s going to do, right Jeff?

TC:

Since this show Jeff, you’re right. I haven’t publicly bet against the Astros but, again, you got to remember, this is one of the hottest teams in baseball since we’ve been doing this show. I mean, besides the Yankees, the Astros are the second hottest team in baseball. And again, so I’m not going to say… I’m not this fan, Jeff, where I’m going to go, “Oh, I’m going to bet the Astros every day.”

Mark:

I think you’re kind of a fan.

Jeff:

Yeah. You’re kind of a fan [inaudible 00:21:34].

Mark:

I think you’re kind of a fan. I mean, you know, Dusty, [inaudible 00:21:37] like you’re [inaudible 00:21:38].

TC:

I enjoy this team.

Mark:

… go out there [inaudible 00:21:40].

TC:

I enjoy this team. I enjoy [inaudible 00:21:41] around this team. And again, I told you guys from the very beginning, I’m not going to be one of these guys that’s going to be betting bad teams. You’re not going to be seeing me betting the Reds and the Pirates and this and that because they’ve got value. I’m not going to do it.

TC:

I’m going to bet the good teams that have advantageous situations. Some days you’re going to have to lay a price with that. But, again, you see the teams that I bet they’re good teams. I’m never going to ask a bad team to do something good for me. I think that’s… we’ve had this conversation before about, “Oh, be a volume player. Just kind of throw stuff out there and hoping that it sticks.” You know? I mean you got to play [inaudible 00:22:18] good team.

Mark:

I admire your position because you’re very adamant about it. I disagree with it because I think that there’s opportunity where if you look at the whole card, I think, I don’t think you want to isolate yourself, but you know what? It works for you. So that’s something that you do and that’s something that you do very well. I admire your stance even though I disagree with it, but I get where you’re coming from, TC.

TC:

All right, [inaudible 00:22:42]. And I’m just joking with you, Jeff. I don’t think [inaudible 00:22:44] playing with you.

Jeff:

Oh, I know. Five runs over the last four games for Houston, a hot offense heading into Oakland.

TC:

Yeah, exactly. They went into Seattle and Seattle got the better of them. Think about that. The Astros scored three runs in that series and but they only lost one game in the standings to Seattle. So anyway, today… and that’s another thing too.

Jeff:

If you win today…

TC:

Today you bust out against the A’s a hitter friendly park.

Jeff:

If you win this game, mark my words, it’ll be in the bullpens. That’s what I’m worried about here, honestly. Look, I don’t think Oakland’s bullpen’s terrible. It’s like middle of the road but Houston’s is really good. And that’s that’s, I think, my knock here, but I’m going to rock with Blackburn. Hopefully, we get something good, magic.

TC:

All right. Let’s go look at it. Definitely, this is one of those games that we’re on opposite sides. And, again, would I be against maybe Blackburn if it was a different pitcher? Framber’s just pitching very, very well. Like I said, he’s won three in a row and four of the last Astro starts.

TC:

Let’s lock it in. Jeff’s got the A’s at plus money here in this game at plus 155. I’ve got the Astros on the run line here, going to give up the run and a half at minus 105 and BaseWinner is going to play the Astros as well, but he’s going to put it to a parlay and we’ll get to the second edge of his parlay coming up here.

TC:

All right, Atlanta and Arizona coming up next, guys. Atlanta sending Spencer Strider for his first career start to the mound today against Zach Allen, who’s basically been pretty good for Arizona. The line in this game has the Braves a $1.19 favorite. If you like the Diamondbacks plus 109, total eight and a half in this game. BaseWinner Braves, Diamondbacks?

Mark:

Oh, gosh. I had to take Spencer Strider. He’s in the hundredth percentile stuff +, which that means he’s the best stuff + pitcher of anybody, not only on this card, but on any card that we’ve seen all year. So I’m very high on him. Look, it’s hard to play a first time starter because it’s a little bit different when you start, I think. I think that there’s some validity to it. Zach Allen 86 percentile stuff +, and he’s an 86 percentile pitching +, too.

Mark:

But I look at the starters and I think we’re getting a better pitcher than Zach Allen and baseball hipsters everywhere are going, what the hell BaseWinner? What are you saying? Gallen’s been awesome. But I think if you look at his three metrics, his swinging strike percentage hard hit per nine and then expected walk rate, he’s only in the 57th percentile with his starts this year.

Mark:

And I don’t think that’s a Cy Young candidate and I’ve heard people on radio stations and all over really these gambling outlets talk about how Zach Gallen should be in consideration for the Cy Young, and I just don’t see it when I look at those advanced metrics. I don’t have a problem playing against him. I think we get a huge edge in the bullpen here, Atlanta. Number one in the three metric chart, they are seventh in swinging strike percentage, second in hard hit per nine allowed and third in expected walk rate.

Mark:

You go down to Arizona’s bullpen, 29th in swinging strike rate and hard hit per nine, they’re 24th. They are sixth in expected walk rate, but they’re 22nd in the overall metrics. And then I know I wanted to get this into the show, so I’m going to do it. We’re going to talk about barrel rate for Atlanta and Atlanta pedestrian numbers somewhat, when you look at weighted runs created +. They’re like 97, 98, but barrel rate, they are second in baseball and that is based on exit velocity and launch angle.

Mark:

And that’s one of those metrics we talked about, TC, that we talked about like, “Hey, it’s going to happen. They’re going to explode.” And I look at barrel rate because I’m looking at their weighted runs created +. I’m saying, “Well, that’s not very good. Their middle of the pack weighted runs created +.” But barrel rate is something that you can use to take a look at moving forward. And they’re second in baseball. So you put it all in the mixer and I’ve got Atlanta minus 162 here so I think minus 113 is a good price. Going to go with the Braves tonight right down the street there at Chase Field.

TC:

There you go. Jeff?

Jeff:

Yeah, I got to tell you. I was a little surprised to see Gallen as a dog in this game. I know Mark says they have the right price and it’s not even close. Atlanta is a significant favorite. I’m not sure I see it. As usual, Mark, riveting analysis, but I have to agree with the hipsters here. I’m a little blown away that you say that Gallen is not as good as Schreider, but look, that’s your opinion. The thought, though, is that we have to mention, we’re going to see a lot of strikeouts in this series. These two teams are worst and second worst in strikeouts per game. In fact, Atlanta is striking out significantly more than any team in baseball. They’re striking out almost 10 times a game, which is a disaster. However, it seems like they’re a bit all or nothing sometimes.

Jeff:

Look, at this price. I thought Gallen, it was a nice one. I am worried though, significantly more about Arizona’s bullpen. That’s a bad pen there. I would maybe take a look at a Gallen first five. This could be a low scoring series with a lot of strikeouts. I lean Gallen. I was hoping, I guess I just don’t have as much an interest here. Arizona’s a weird team. I am surprised at how solid they’ve been though. I mean, they’re pretty much 500. If you’d have told me that, I thought you’d be nuts. I didn’t think their lineup was very good, but yeah. Plus they’re off that Dodger series. I don’t have much here. I lean Gallen, though.

TC:

I do like Gallen in this game. He’s had one bad start. That’s all he has, one bad start. And then it was the last one, obviously. It was a where he gave up a six runs and he’s got good enough stuff. He’s probably their best pitcher, if you want to say Bumgardner, whatever, but Gallen’s an up and comer and McCarthy is hitting the ball. These guys are still getting production and they’re really glad to see the Dodgers leave town. I mean, where they just cannot beat the Dodgers, but they were in every one of those games, especially the last two.

TC:

And when you look at Spencer Strider I think, Mark, that you really just don’t have that much of a sample size because he’s making his first career start and all of his other starts… I mean, I’m sorry, all of his other appearances have been out of the bullpen, one inning, two innings. I think he’s never gone more than four, so I’m a little concerned.

TC:

He’s confident, he’s kind of a, brashy kind of cocky… they say he’s a confident kid. He’s making his first career start today, so I don’t know if he’s going to have that same stuff, especially if they let him go five or six innings. Because again, we’ve only seen this guy go an inning or two. So I think that’s a little bit dangerous. And you figure that Arizona, they played well enough to beat the Dodgers the last couple days. They’re at home. Gallen’s rock solid. It wouldn’t surprise me If Arizona got the job done today.

TC:

I don’t know. That’s a lock, BaseWinner and though he’s taking a shot with the Bravos, the Braves here today at 119. There right down the street. It’s a five o’clock start for you, Mark [inaudible 00:29:49].

Mark:

I thought about going.

TC:

… ballpark. Maybe you could take off your shirt, go by the pool there. Maybe get some hot dogs or some burgers cooking over there by the pool inside Chase Field.

Mark:

It’s too bad my nieces are in town. It’s too bad they don’t like baseball, because that’d be perfect, but they don’t. So you know what that means. That means I can’t go because then I’ll be called antisocial and I would never want to be called that. It’d be like, “You’re just obsessed with baseball.” Never would want to be called that, right?

TC:

Right. There you go. Okay.

Mark:

Even though it’s true.

TC:

All right, let’s move on guys. Pittsburgh and the Dodgers, our last game we’re going to look at here today. And that’s your nighttime game at Chavez Ravine. Dodgers are back home and the Dodgers a 3.35 favorite. Yes, here we are in May and we’re having a $3.35 favorite against the Pittsburgh Pirates. If anybody wants to go out on a limb and take a shot at the Buckos plus 2.75 in this one. Total in this game is eight minus 120 towards the over Zach Thompson against Walker Buehler. BaseWinner, you are all over minus 3.35, aren’t you? No run line here?

Mark:

Well, yeah, because I’m putting it into a parlay with… because I thought that that Houston price was a little bit high. So this is a good way to… we talked about this before is capital preservation is very important when you’re… it’s really important in any investment, but it’s important in baseball betting too. So being able to take advantage of an odds mismatch and you say, “Well it’s minus 315, that’s terrible. How can you do that?” Well, that’s why I model it. That’s why I come up with a run projection and I can create probability based on the run projection. And the bottom line is I’ve got a 5.62 runs for the Dodgers versus a 2.78 for the Pirates. That comes to minus 3.58 on the money line for me.

Mark:

And that means that I’m projecting a 78% chance for the Dodgers to win. The market’s projecting a 75.9% chance. I got a 2% edge here. I don’t care if it’s minus 350, plus 350. Whatever it is, if you got an edge, I’m going to play it and I’m going to play it with this Houston game. And we could talk all day about these numbers because it’s a total mismatch. You’ve got the best projected hitting team in baseball versus the worst projected hitting team in baseball. I like Buehler at 30th in baseball as far as 30th out of 150 pitchers. I like the Dodger bullpen. They’re the number one bullpen in baseball. Pittsburgh’s 24th stuff +, Bueller 80 percentile, Zach Thompson 27 percentile.

Mark:

And we can talk bullpens too, where the Dodgers are sixth in my overall ratings and Pittsburgh’s middle of the pack, 19th. If you look at all the components it makes sense that I would chew out a minus 350 in the model. And so I’ve got value on it and I think it’s a good opportunity to put in a parlay with Houston today. That’s what I’m going to do. It’s going to be Houston Dodgers, lay the wood parlay plus 104.

TC:

So you guys play a lot of the first five bets here. This seems like to be a picture perfect Dodger in the first five. Do you guys have the odds on that, on what that is? BetUS, because [inaudible 00:33:16] 180, it makes a lot of sense. If you’re going to play a first five, wouldn’t this be it especially with Buehler going?

Mark:

I don’t think so. I think you want to take advantage of the Dodger bullpen and get as many at bats as you can on a batting mismatch. You know, TC, where I play the first five innings is if I have like a lousy bullpen, I really, there’s a big advantage in the starter. I’ll very rarely play it when I’ve got a bullpen advantage, so that’s when I use the first five. So, you know [inaudible 00:33:44].

TC:

You’d be laying a lot less juice if you believe that Walker Buehler’s going to shut them down and especially Dodgers coming back. I

Mark:

I don’t think… what’s the [inaudible 00:33:52]… I don’t think the five inning price is that much less. I mean, let me go ahead and take a look at that.

TC:

That’s why I was asking you because I don’t have it in front of me.

Mark:

Yeah, let me let pull that up.

TC:

Jeff, go ahead.

Jeff:

Yeah. I mean this price is up to 367, okay. So let’s put this in perspective. If you do the parlay that Mark’s telling you about, you actually lose money, a hundred dollars will win you 98.77.

Mark:

Where do you see it at 367? It’s at minus 300 at BetUS.

Jeff:

Well, I’m just saying at a cumulative amount, it’s moving up to 367. Yeah, look, they’ll probably win. I think he’s going to get screwed on the parlay, personally. I think Houston’s going to lose, and that’s just my opinion, but I don’t know, that being said, I don’t know. He says that they’re going to score five and a half runs, pitchers [inaudible 00:34:37] what, two and a half?I play at least a run line here. Dodgers are very good on the run line as, as we know. Yeah, I don’t have much in this game. I mean, the price is ridiculous.

Mark:

All right guys, I stand corrected. You’re right, Jeff, it’s up to minus 360 and TC, you’re right. The five inning line is minus 300. So that’s significant in less. It usually doesn’t happen like that.

TC:

Yeah, see, I wouldn’t even think it would be that high. Yeah. Wow.

Mark:

But no, you’ll see the five inning line sometimes higher than the full game. It just depends. But I don’t know why it’s like this where it is, but I’m going to take every advantage today.I’ll take all nine innings with the Dodgers because they’re just so much better. And I think the bullpens, there’s probably more of a gap in the bullpen than there are in the starters, so that’s kind of why I’m playing it, but I think it’s a good opportunity to get the Dodgers and the Astros in a parlay that plays plus money. So that’s why I’m doing it.

TC:

I’ll just throw this out just because here’s some facts, some fun facts here in this game. So we know that Buehler is apparently the Dodger ace, but he’s only averaging four strikeouts per game. And I’ll say this Pittsburgh played the Dodgers. Granted, it was at PNC park in Pittsburgh two and a half weeks ago. And the Pittsburgh Pirates beat the Dodgers as $2 underdogs in two of those three games. So, just saying, it can happen, Dodgers at home, pitching matchup, obviously advantageous for the Dodgers.

TC:

But if you’re thinking about maybe taking a shot with the Pirates here at plus 2.75, just recent memory says that they won as $2 underdogs, just two and a half weeks ago against the same team. Now Buehler didn’t pitch in that series, but it was Urias and I can’t remember who the other pitcher was. But anyway, we’re rooting you on, BaseWinner. There you go. You’re laying the lumber with this parlay. You’re laying it. And there it is. So put Mark down for the two team parlay, Astros and the Dodgers, and basically we’ll get them back even money plus 104 there. All right, let’s go to the questions from our listeners and our viewers that are out there today. Any thoughts on the Brewers and the Cubs game that’s getting ready to go off? Any thoughts, guys, on that game?

Jeff:

The [inaudible 00:36:57] out, I mean over. I didn’t really look much into it though. Cub’s a bad team. Two lefties going today, but I don’t want to back Ashby either. So pass for me.

TC:

Yeah. Cubs went through that kind of marathon game yesterday across town and were in the south side against the White Sox. That was a crazy game. Cubs blew a three-one lead. They ended up losing five-four in extras yesterday and they really went through their bullpen in that game as well too.

TC:

But what I enjoyed most about that game, guys, I was flipping back and forth. The White Sox went old school. They threw out the old red, white, and blue socks across the front. That was nice to see that yesterday. I like that. I like that. The only thing that was missing was the Bermuda shorts. See, you guys probably don’t remember that. That’s way back in the day. Anyway, any thoughts of BaseWinner, Brewers, Cubs?

Mark:

Yeah. You know, it’s funny with Smiley. It always shows value on Smiley because the predominant components that go into my pitcher ratings are strikeout percentage and walk percentage. And there’s a few other things that go into it. But the problem with Smiley is that he gives up a lot of hard contact. So I’ve got a price at Cubs minus 1.33, so that would show a value there. But if the wind’s blowing out and the guy gives up a lot of hard contact, it’s kind of a bad combination.

Mark:

I think that while using a model for me works pretty well, I think there’s sometimes where you have to look at it and say, “Okay, why is my model projecting this?” And then you kind of got to override it. So in this case I would override it just by not playing it because the value would indicate on the model that the Cubs are the valuable team.

TC:

Kevin wants to know the thoughts on the Giants and Phillies today. Jeff?

Jeff:

Yeah, I was so close on an over here. I still might play it, smaller capacity. I was hoping to get an eight and a half. It’s nine and a half. I don’t know if that matters a ton. You got to realize the weather here, it’s very hot, 90 degrees, winds blowing out. You’re going to have some balls flying in Citizens Bank Park. Both pitchers are solid, but you have to realize guys, these are two of the better offenses in baseball. Two of the better over teams in baseball. Both these teams are plus money to the over this year, which is rare in baseball. We haven’t seen that many of those. Two good lineups, two bad bullpens.

Jeff:

We haven’t talked enough about how bad San Francisco’s bullpen has been, quite frankly, one of the worst in baseball, quite honestly. So I think we could see some runs here in Philadelphia, kind of struck me as like a 7-6, 6-5 type of game. I just hate nine and a halfs because 4-4, I’m not always going to win. So I’ll probably have a smaller, maybe half unit play on the over here. It didn’t quite make my show plays, but I like it. The weather’s good here. It’s hot.

TC:

Kevin Gibson going. That’s a pitching matchup today. BaseWinner any thoughts on that game?

Mark:

I got a price right at minus 109, that’s right where the market is, so not much.

TC:

Okay. And then, Chris, I think he’s trying to stir it up here a little bit or asking the question: BaseWinner, do you have Blackburn rated higher than Justin Verlander?

Mark:

I think he’s just trying to fool with me. That’s what I think.

TC:

That’s what I think. He’s trying to stir it up.

Mark:

That’s good, though. No, but hey, let’s talk about Justin Verlander. Nobody said anything about him and…

TC:

Yeah.

Jeff:

He was bad.

Mark:

People were snickering at me about Verlander not being an elite pitcher. And I didn’t say [inaudible 00:40:17].

Jeff:

We weren’t snickering. We were just saying what you were saying just was… I mean, he’s [inaudible 00:40:20].

Mark:

… you were snickering at me. And I said, “Hey, Verlander is good. He’s just not at that elite level.” And you said, “Well, that’d be the pitcher that I would take.”

Jeff:

Well, if [inaudible 00:40:32].

Mark:

And I would take probably like 20 other pictures right now.

Jeff:

Okay. But again, it wasn’t good. It worked out for you because he didn’t pitch well, but all in all, I think what you said is just not factual, but ultimately you made us look bad because he didn’t pitch well, so…

TC:

Oh yeah. And then again, that’s one game just like Zach Gallen. Look at the start that he had last time. I mean he’s better than that. [inaudible 00:40:53].

Jeff:

And remember Mark, the three starts previous to that, he hadn’t given up a run over what, 19 or 20 games.

TC:

19 innings, yeah. [inaudible 00:41:02].

Mark:

So like my point was he’s good. Like I haven’t… Okay. On the basewinner at ERA, he’s 33rd out of 189 guys. Okay. That’s pretty good. But like McClannahan, Nolan, Otani, Burns, Gouzman, I would take those guys. [inaudible 00:41:18]. Yeah. No. Okay. Getting back to the question, sorry. I went on a tangent there. In all seriousness, I have Verlander… okay, so this is actually really good. I have him ranked 26th out of 150 pitchers, so I’m not saying he’s awful. I’m just saying there’s 25 pitchers above him.

Mark:

As far as Blackburn’s rating, I’ve got him 116th out of 150. And you guys… so TC, you don’t think there’s 25 pitchers in baseball that’s better than Verlander?

TC:

Of course not, Mark, he’s the Cy Young award favorite. So you’re telling me that the 25th guy… Mark, you’re going by…

Mark:

Is he really? That’s surprising to me man, that market. I’d bet against that [inaudible 00:42:00].

TC:

And he’ll get comeback player of the year because what he’s come through with the surgery, 38 years old, his stuff has been fantastic.

Mark:

What are his side [inaudible 00:42:08].

TC:

Zero earned runs in those three… we went over it before. I mean, you have to look deep here, not just at [inaudible 00:42:15].

Mark:

I’m looking at the Cy Young odds. And then so he’s he’s favorite in the Cy Young above McClannahan?

Jeff:

Yes, dude.

Mark:

That’s a bad bet. I’m sorry.

TC:

Again, body of work in the [inaudible 00:42:30].

Mark:

So he’s favored… Verlander is favored above [inaudible 00:42:34]? He is. [inaudible 00:42:35] Gousman, [inaudible 00:42:36] Cole [inaudible 00:42:37] McClannahan [inaudible 00:42:40].

TC:

… just said, everybody right now would either, if they’re driving drive off the side of the road or they’d fall off in their chair, if you’re saying that there are 24 other better pitchers than Justin Verlander.

Mark:

There is. I mean, look at the numbers, [inaudible 00:42:54] TC. I mean, I’m not making up the numbers, strike out percentage or walk percentage. I mean, these are the classic [inaudible 00:43:02] metric numbers for evaluating pitchers. I mean, geez, I’m not making it up. There’s 25 guys that are better than him.

Jeff:

All right. Obviously, he’s just nuts. Let’s just move on. There’s not 25, Mark, stop. Are you doing drugs this morning or what?

Mark:

I’m looking at the chart here. I’m looking at my BaseWinner ERA.

TC:

The chart doesn’t get on the [inaudible 00:43:27].

Mark:

I’m not making up the guy’s strikeout percentage and walk percentage. I mean McClanahan’s 73% better than the average pitcher [inaudible 00:43:39].

Jeff:

Don’t, don’t.

TC:

I know, we don’t have time, but…

Mark:

I can go to the top. [inaudible 00:43:44] So keep this in mind [inaudible 00:43:46] do you guys think strikeouts are good? Do you guys think strikeouts are good? So Verlander has 21% better than the average pitcher. Okay. Well, let’s let’s look at McClanahan. He’s 73% better than the average pitcher. Aaron Nola 48%, Otani 67%

TC:

[inaudible 00:44:03] ERA. He gives up runs.

Mark:

What’s his sabermetric ERA? [inaudible 00:44:09] It’s a lot better than Verlanders. I just can’t see… You guys, do you use strikeouts and walk percentage in your handicap? I don’t think I’m being controversial at all. I mean, it is what it is. The guy’s strike out percent is 20% better than average. You got McClanahan 73% better than that. Otani 67% better. Gousman 40% better, Cole 47% better. They strike out more guys. I mean that’s important in the Cy Young race, isn’t it?

TC:

Yeah. That’s why they don’t vote on the Cy Young after six or seven starts as well too. You’re getting [inaudible 00:44:41] Mark. Relax.

Jeff:

All I’ll say is I see Paul Blackburn at 70 to one. Maybe it’s time to…

Mark:

Oh my God.

Jeff:

But [inaudible 00:44:49] a little bit with a little hundred dollars wager on that.

TC:

Yeah, there you go. Make that ice donation after all. Yeah, you’re going to get [inaudible 00:44:56].

Jeff:

By the way, who is Shane Bass?

TC:

… below 500.

Jeff:

Who is Shane Baz? Is he pitching baseball? Who the hell is that?

Mark:

He’s a relief pitcher.

Jeff:

I was going to say, I have not seen that guy yet in start-up. Who the hell is that?

TC:

Final question here today, Padre’s cards. Any thoughts?

Jeff:

I got nothing on that.

Mark:

After that, let me… hold on. Let me go back into it and look at it.

TC:

[inaudible 00:45:24] Mark. Will let you go. Well, let you go back to [inaudible 00:45:26].

Jeff:

You’re the only person in that country that has [inaudible 00:45:28].

TC:

Go to the barrel race. Participate in the barrel race today.

Mark:

Padre’s, Cardinals, bullpen day for the Cardinals. Nick Martinez for the Padres. I got it at minus one [inaudible 00:45:37].

Jeff:

Wait a second. Hold on, Mark. This can’t be a real pitcher. Packy Naughton? [inaudible 00:45:41]. What the hell is [inaudible 00:45:43] sounds like a gangster. He’s used to be a gangster or something in the thirties.

Mark:

That does sound like a gangster.

Jeff:

That can’t be [inaudible 00:45:49] a real person. Oh, he’s from Boston. No surprise. Packy Naughton. He’s got to be from southie. He’s got to be from southie.

TC:

I wanted to bring up the name game. I think every day we should take a look at the names of some of these pitchers because you guys were cracking up Bruce Zimmerman last week and some of these names, all right? And so look who’s going today. We have a Spencer. I’m not crazy about a Spencer, a Walker. Then we had Madison going last week. We had Brandon, we had a Chase. We had a Dakota going on Friday and today we got Packy. Come on. We got [inaudible 00:46:24].

Mark:

Well, hey, TC. I’m betting on Strider and I’m betting on Walker. And I hope that they don’t live up to their names so that I don’t want guys striding and walking to first base. Hopefully they won’t live up to their name.

TC:

Yeah. I don’t know how you guys feel about some of these names, but it’s hard to back this. I mean, from a Spencer to a Walker, to a Packy to a Dakota.

Mark:

I’m waiting for the Dodgers to trade Bueller to the Rangers so he could be Walker Texas Ranger.

TC:

Of course, of course. There you go. Horrendous TV show back in the day. Unbelievable.

Mark:

With Chuck Norris, is that who that was?

TC:

Yeah. Yes. Chuck Norris. Yes. Not the Kung fu Chuck Norris, but some cowboy Chuck Norris. There it is. All right to the best bets today. Here we go. We got action with the Astros and the A’s here today. One o’clock Pacific start. Jeff’s all over the A’s, the athletics. Plus 155. I’m taking Houston, not only the victory. I’m going to lay the run and a half, the run line minus 105. BaseRunner has got Houston and the Dodgers in a parlay and Atlanta Braves at minus 119 against the Arizona Diamondbacks in his backyard.

TC:

So there you go. All right guys, a very spirited Monday. We’ll be back at it again tomorrow and I hope you guys have a good Memorial Day and I hope everyone out there remembered to like and subscribe to the show here, to the channel, BetUS TV, the MLB show. Also follow us on Twitter at BetUS TV, and then individually at our Twitter handles. I’m at TC Mark 21, Jeff Nadu and at BaseWinner, I believe correct on Twitter?

Mark:

Yep. TC, can I just say one thing real fast and I’m very, very serious. You know, this day it allows us to handicap and argue about Justin Verlander and talk about barrel rates and strikeout percentage. But I think that we should be very thankful for all of those who… and this is why we have Memorial Day… who lost their lives in battle. It’s something that they did so that we can pursue our way of life and live in a wonderful country, in my opinion.

TC:

Well said, my friend, well said. All right, everyone enjoy the rest of your day, the rest of your weekend. And we’ll be back at it again tomorrow at 12 noon Eastern time right here on BetUS TV. Have a great day.