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MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Baseball Betting Odds [Thursday April 28]

Breaking Down Today’s Top MLB Matchups and Betting Lines

Mark:

Hey, and welcome to a thunderous Thursday. This is the MLB show here on BetUS TV. I’m glad to have you with us here. As you know, we’re here every Monday through Friday, weekdays at 12 noon Eastern Time. I am T.C. Martin and my astute handicappers to my left and to my right today, we’ve got obviously jazzy Jeff Nadu, who is back with us today. And then Eric Smades joins us.

Mark:

We’ve got the East Coast connection. We’ve got Phillie to my left, we’ve got New York to my right. And Mark Borchard, the Basewinner, he’s off today. He’s got a load management day and I think that’s what Basewinner needs to do, right? He’s got to load up all of those analytics and those sabermetrics, so he gets off day to day and our relief pitcher, Eric steps in. So welcome aboard guys. Glad to have you with us here.

Mark:

A lot of games to touch on today and we will dive into almost the entire card here today. Real quick though, remember, we’re going to do a Q&A session a little bit later on. So if you got questions, make sure you fire away at us here on the chat room and also like and subscribe to not only the show, but the channel at BetUS TV as well too.

Mark:

Remember, hit that bell. That way, the notifications you’ll get them when we go live. And again, Monday through Friday, 12 noon Eastern right here on BetUS TV and of course, home of America’s favorite sportsbook, BetUS. All right. Let’s take a look at what transpired yesterday. I felt pretty good, yesterday going three and one. I think I was one throwing airway late in that Dodger Arizona game from a sweep on the board, but hey, I’ll take three and one as we go yesterday. Jeff, how was your day yesterday, man?

Jeff:

Yeah, it wasn’t great. I had two games that I told everyone, anytime I bet against the St. Louis Cardinals, they seemingly are the greatest team ever and I lose that. The Mets, they’re too worried about what’s going on and hitting batters, things like that. But look, I’ve made money with them before. Carrasco had to figure at some point he was going to get destroyed and he did yesterday. As far as Texas, I flipped it on that. I felt like, to me, it was a decent price on the Rangers. I don’t love Houston right now. It is what it is there.

Jeff:

Look, the truth is, early in the season, you just put your MLB betting in and see how they go. There’s a lot of nonsense that goes on in April. Hopefully when we turn the calendar to May here in a couple of days, things just start ramping up. We’ve got a long way to go.

Mark:

Speaking of the nonsense yesterday, I was checking that game out that you bet on, the Cardinals and the Mets. Mets got off to that early start and then the Cardinals kind of erupted from the fifth inning on yesterday. And then of course we had the brawl yesterday. I don’t know if we should call it a brawl or not. Both benches empty. Nolan Arenado, he’s ejected. This is something that we’ve been talking about a little bit, but before we get into the picks here, just quick thoughts on this.

Mark:

The Mets have been hit 19 times, three on Tuesday and then one yesterday, led to the bench cleaning brawl. I know that Buck Showalter has really been fired up about this. Chris Bassitt, the Mets pitcher, he ripped Major League Baseball a couple of days ago after his start saying, “Hey, the balls are too slick. They’re too inconsistent.”

Mark:

Maybe we need Basewinner here, because he’s been on this ball conversation basically from the beginning here, but Bassitt had some pretty choice words talking about Major League Baseball doesn’t care. So I don’t know if the baseball are coming into play here, but we are seeing one team more than others that is really getting the brunt of this. And I don’t know Jeff, give me some thoughts on this. Do you think that these guys are going after the Mets or what? Or is it just the inconsistency with the balls because I think that pictures are just lacking control so far.

Jeff:

Yeah. It does seem like the Mets and obviously, the numbers speak for themselves. They’ve been hit, what? 20 times [inaudible 00:03:54] 19 times. I will say though and from what I’ve noticed, when I watch just these random highlights at night, it does seem like every night, there’s a ball up in someone’s face mask or hits them in the helmet. It is seeming like a major problem.

Jeff:

Look, do the Mets seem like they’re getting hit more than others? Yeah. But there’s other teams that are doing it as well. I don’t think it’s someone targeting the Mets or anything, but they have been hit a lot. And this seems like a problem that’s chronic around baseball. So there’s a lot of problems that are not solved and the owners don’t seem to care about, not only in baseball, but other sports. Yeah, they have to look into something because there seems to be a major problem.

Mark:

Eric, they’re picking on your team here, man. Do you feel offended here that the Mets are getting plunked all this time?

Eric:

First of all, it’s outrageous. A lot of it shoulders are up too, not the ribs or you’re not getting hit in the butt or something like that. So sooner or later, [inaudible 00:04:49] out the window and you’ve got to do something. I’m not a huge unwritten rules guy. The problem is they went after Nolan who’s about that life. He’s a gamer. They hit Goldie. He’s walking it first and this doesn’t even do anything. I’m not about that third base coach tackling Pete like, “Get up. You’re not taking players to the ground, let them settle it.” I love watching the bullpens run, do the 400 yard sprint out to the brawl. But sooner or later, you’ve got to stand up for your squad. Somebody’s got to wear one. You have to.

Mark:

Yeah. Like I said, I think the big issue here is the baseballs. Everybody’s complaining about it. They’re saying the balls are not made the same. Some seams are different. The humidor, humidifier, all that stuff in different parks, it is crazy, and Major League Baseball seems so secretive. And the last thing on this guys, we don’t have this problem in football. We don’t have it in basketball. I mean, I understand, you have much more baseballs that are being used. I mean, ball hits the dirt. It’s ridiculous. It gets thrown out. I mean, it is pretty crazy.

Mark:

But with football, I mean, these footballs are checked, they’re aired. And remember, you play with more than one football in a game. You go through about sometimes maybe 10 or 12 footballs in a game. Basketball is what it is, but it just seems like baseball is really quirky and baseball isn’t being forthcoming with what they’re doing because they have changed the baseballs over the course of time. Almost seems like every other year they’re changing the way they construct it. And Major League Baseball is very secretive about it. So no one’s really talking about it until now because the pitchers are complaining about it. So any quick thoughts on that?

Eric:

I mean, I’m not going to hold my breath and wait for Major League Baseball to do something about this. And you’re allowed to scuff up the football a little bit. And I remember a few years back, I think LeBron was complaining about slick balls or Rondo or somebody like that, but baseball’s not going to do anything with this. Maybe next year, but I find it hard to believe they’re going to care enough to change the balls this year.

Mark:

All right guys, let’s get on with it here. Just take a look, our records mentioned yesterday, three and one, but for me Basewinner clocked in yesterday with a two and one record. So takes us to the top there 18 and 11, Jeff 8 and 12, Basewinner we have 19 and 14. So we continue on today. Jeff and I are limited on the Thursday schedule, but our good friend, Eric, the volume player, he’s decided to jump all in on just about every game here. So we’re going to go over a lot of these games and we’re going to kind of hit him quickly guys, so we can get them all in here today. But I know that our viewers out there are very curious just about all of these games. So let’s dive into it here today. So let’s just start off with our first game today.

Mark:

And remember, we’ve got games going very early today. This is a travel day, on a Thursday, which we normally see. So you got to be careful, check those lamps before you bet them to see who’s sitting and who’s playing. And again, getaway days are going to have some early games here getting underway very, very soon during the course of this show. So we start with Milwaukee and Pittsburgh. We’re going to wrap up this series. Brewers pretty much have had the better of the Pirates so far. Brewers are a $1.65 favorite in this game, if you like the Bucks getting +145, total here is seven and a half slightly shaded towards the under at -120. Eric, let’s start with you. I understand you like this game. Tell us who you like and why.

Eric:

It’s an absolute fate of Quintana. The Milwaukee’s lineup has crazy numbers off him. Adam’s three for three, Lo Cain’s, 27 of a hundred with eight doubles, Koch, five for 16 off them, Renfroe, three for 10 with two home runs. I mean, Quintana could be in some big trouble today. I don’t love it with the getaway day and the early start, but I’m going Brewers first five in full game team total over.

Mark:

All right, Jeff.

Jeff:

Boy, Mark would hate this guy about referencing folks that are five for 16 off someone. He would hate that. If you don’t have 6,000 at bats to get someone, he hates that of them. But yeah, listen, Freddy Peralta had one bad outing. I think a lot of people look at his ERA say, “Oh, his ERA is out of control.” Yeah, it was one game. It’s not the end of the world. St. Louis beat him up a little bit. But against the Cubs and Phillies, he was actually pretty effective.

Jeff:

We know Freddy Peralta is an effective pitcher. Look, I’m not a Cantonic guy as Eric alluded to. And as far as the individual numbers, look, this Brewer lineup’s starting to get going. I mean, quietly through 19 games or 12 and seven, when they started this season, we had all sorts of issues with them. They couldn’t hit, they couldn’t do anything, but all of a sudden they’re starting to look like, again, they’re they’re running into where we think they should be. So yeah, I don’t have much issue with the Brewers here. Anytime the Pirates are playing and Quintona is on the mound, I would look to fade. So yeah, it seems all right to me.

Mark:

Yeah. We’ve talked about before, Quintana has bounced around a little bit, found a home now in Pittsburgh, and it’s hard to back this Pittsburgh Pirate lineup as well too, laying 160, whatever it is, with Milwaukee on the road. We’ll see what happens here in getaway day. And I mentioned before the Brewers, I thought might be a little tired team because they’ve been traveling and crisscrossing back and forth here from East Coast back home and back to Pittsburgh again here, but McCutchen, yeah, he’s in the lineup today. So he is going to get another start against the Pirates. So-

Jeff:

The lead off.

Mark:

… it looks like they got their A lineup in there as well today. All right. So lock Eric in for the over in this game at over seven and a half at even money in that one. Okay. And also he also likes the team total here with the Milwaukee Brewers over four and a half A+ money as well. So two plays in that game for Eric. All right. Next game of the dock, the Padres and the Reds. Nick Martinez, going for San Diego in this game and Tyler Mahle going for the Reds. Really guys, this is basically a pick ’em game. The Reds at -110, the total misgame one and a half. A lot of under money coming in on this one, -125 to the under, at eight and a half.

Mark:

Basically we’ve got a battle of the crumb bum pitchers, as I like to say here. Martinez talked about him before, his last two starts, nine walks, seven strikeouts, six earned runs, has given up 11 hits. Not much better on the Cincinnati side as well too. Mahle’s been terrible, 10 earned runs, 16 hits. Cincinnati is struggling. As we know they’re on base percentage’s dead last in Major League Baseball, slugging percentage. Guess what? Dead last. And then on the flip side, on the mound ERA, dead last. This Reds team is just a nightmare. And then you got Nick Martinez on top of that. I don’t know how you handicap this one, but Jeff, take it away.

Jeff:

Yeah. I mean the Reds three and 15 yet they’re listed as a favorite. That’s all you need to know. This is a getaway day, early start, surprise to a lot of people. Here’s what I love about gambling, okay, I’m going to tell you right now, there’s a bunch of geeks, corny clowns that have no idea how to bet or do anything. And they’re saying to themselves, “I’m at my cubicle right now. I need to bet on something.” They’re going to go right to this game. They’re going to see the Padres that they’re 12 and seven. They’ve got Manny Machado, all these big boppers. And they’re going to say, “The Reds, they’re three and 15, Mel sucks. He’s got a [inaudible 00:12:11]. I have to bet that.” Not so fast. I’m going the other way. And look, I know people are going to say, “Well, you’re eight and 12. What do I care about your opinion?”

Jeff:

Yeah. Well, again, I’m getting along with some teams that again, I’m going against the public, okay? It’s that simple here. Let’s keep in mind though, when we talk about Mahle, yeah, is he a good picture? No. On the surface he has him, when you reference tenure and runs, keep in mind seven were to one team and it was to the Dodgers. So I’m willing to say, “Well, outside of that, he hasn’t been that bad.” Look, he’s not the greatest pitcher on earth, but when we look at the other side, Nick Martinez is a mess.

Jeff:

He always has been a mess. I look at Mel and just see a little bit more consistent. I think he’s a better pitcher overall. You also throw in the fact that this Padre team has been a mess against right-handed pitchers this year. I’m going to rock with the Reds here. We’re not going to lose every game for the rest of the season. I think the line’s a strong indication as to what’s going to go on in this game. I think the Reds finally get off the [inaudible 00:13:09] and get a win here. I’m back in Cincinnati at home.

Mark:

All right. Jeff’s on the Reds here. Eric, some thoughts of this game.

Eric:

I don’t really disagree with anything Jeff just said, to be honest with you. The line would indicate the Reds are pretty unbackable, but this line’s telling you otherwise, definitely a getaway game. It’s a gross game, to be honest with you. I saw Mahle’s in the lineup. I’m surprised he’s playing a day game, to be honest with you. If I had to pick, based on Cincinnati’s bullpen, I’d go pods run line, but I can’t disagree with anything Jeff just said, to be honest with you. Nick Martinez is a bum. We’ll see. I mean, it’s pick ’em game, toss basically a coin flip in my opinion.

Mark:

There you go. Go with the home team here, okay. Reds. We’ll lock Jeff in for the Reds here today, and like you said, -110 for Cincinnati in a battle of a questionable pitchers though, but… All right. And we’ll see Joey Votto in the lineup today, Moustakas as well too. So we’ll see if the Reds bats can get going here today. All right, so good luck with that one Jeff. All right. Moving on, Colorado and Philadelphia, that game today, we’ve got the Phillies, a huge favorite at home at -$2. Zack Wheeler going on the mound for the Phillies and then Gomber’s going for Colorado. The total misgame, a low one at seven, slightly shaded to the over. So over money coming in at seven here, banking on that. I think the Phillies bats can get to Gomber as well too. And Wheeler hasn’t been great as we know. Wheeler’s, 0 and three with an ERA of 8.53. So let’s take a look at this game. Eric, who do you like?

Eric:

I’ve seen pretty much every start of Zack Wheeler’s career. And he’s just riding that second half of the Mets here, where he was unhitable and I can’t put him as a $2 favorite against anybody right now. I mean, he didn’t face any live pitching other than some AAA guys in Print Spring Training. The Phillies are terrible against lefties. They’re hitting 235 striking out almost 21% of the time. Gomber is not terrible, to be honest with you. This is just a number play for me. I just can’t see Zack Wheeler as a $2 favorite.

Mark:

Okay, Jeff?

Jeff:

Yeah. I think Phillie’s fans have been a little jaded by Zack Wheeler. I don’t disagree with what Eric said. The truth is though, it’s hard when the Phillies are facing a lefty, and the way their lineup is hit, I think they scored what, 25 runs over the last three games. This lineup’s on fire right now. Listen, guys, I’m going to tell you right now, it could be an absolutely horrific day in this city for the first time in a long time. The Phillies may lose and Wheeler may get shelled. The Philadelphia Eagles may completely bottle two draft picks in the first shot. And the Philadelphia’s 76ers are in the precipice of blowing a three nothing lead all in this city tonight. That’s happening in this town in South Philly in the matter of 12 hours. It could be a rough day and Wheeler could get it started.

Jeff:

I have a reason to believe though, Wheeler has not been good, but again, you look at this one start that he hadn’t been good in, you’d hope he can figure it out. I mean, it wasn’t great last time out though for that matter either. So this is a tough game. I’d almost lean maybe just on a Phillies team total over. They usually hit lefties pretty well. And I’m not a big Gomber guy, but I think Eric’s right. I mean, it’s hard to trust Wheeler right now. I guess the hope is they just figure it out, like the White Sox did yesterday in a similar spot and Wheeler you get seven innings and one run ball and they get the job done. But I lean Phillies quite honestly, just because I like their lineup, but I didn’t want to play a $2 favorite.

Mark:

And you wonder why we have this jaded edge towards Phillie fans, Philadelphia fans. Look at Jeff, just went the glass half empty as usual, saying Sixers are going to blow it. The Eagles are going to blow it with the [inaudible 00:16:58] and the Phillies could start all off. Jeff, how about flipping it around? How about the Sixers bounce back tonight? Huh? At the Wells Fargo Arena?

Jeff:

No, we don’t do that. Listen-

Mark:

The Phillies get it right today. How about a clean sweep for Philly teams?

Jeff:

But here’s why you have to respect Philadelphia because I’m not going to lie and be a fugazy to you. I’m just not going to do it. The truth of the matter is this team has blown leads. Glen Rivers blows leads, the Philadelphia Eagles have a massive problem with drafting. And that’s just the truth. I wish it were different. I wish it were a different thing. Look, here’s how much I love to Philadelphia Eagles. I have a Philadelphia Eagles mouse pad, that’s how much I love the Eagles. They’re the only team I actually care about in sports anymore. So it’s hard because we don’t have glasses half full. They won a Super Bowl and I wanted to fire the coach the next year. So yeah, I don’t work like that. We’re negative. It just is what it is.

Mark:

Can you please get a Jalen Hurts Jersey hung up there behind you please?

Jeff:

Oh, hey, by the way I retweeted at TC. I urged you to go check it out. The night they drafted Mr. Hurts, I was a lot fatter back then. I was 340 pounds back then, I’m a lot svelter now, but I had a video that went viral. Absolutely went nuts when they drafted Jalen Hurts. I still to this day didn’t understand it because they had Carson wents and they were trying to tell us how great Carson Wentz was, then they draft Jalen Hurts. You’ll have to watch that video. I would absolutely ache for it.

Eric:

It’s pretty legendary on Twitter actually, yeah.

Jeff:

Yeah, it was bad. But it ended up working out because now they need Jalen Hurts.

Mark:

Yeah.

Eric:

Congrats on the weight lost by the way, man. It’s very commendable bro.

Jeff:

Salute, thanks man.

Mark:

All right. Let’s lock Jeff in for his pick to-

Jeff:

No Eric.

Mark:

No that’s Eric’s pickup, so I bet-

Eric:

Yeah, I took the Rocks.

Mark:

Colorado +170. He’s taking a shot going with the Rocks on the road getaway day Phillie. All right, let’s go. All right. Next up, let’s take a look at Miami and Washington and man, I think the combined total of attendance for this series thus far is probably under 6,000. Again, I had the Marlins last night with a good friend, Pablo Lopez. He came through and I could not believe all the empty seats that we saw there yesterday. That was crazy. But the Marlin’s got the road victory again, a one run victory. They are a $1.40 favorite here today. The total in this game is eight and let’s get right to it. Eric, who do you like?

Eric:

I’m going to hold my nose and take the over here, just because Roger’s been getting tattooed recently. I mean he’s giving up 11 runs in his last 11 and two thirds with seven walks. Granted, both these offenses are pretty terrible right now. I just see the runs get maybe four four we get there and we get nine. Maybe Soto goes yard a couple times, but Rogers is just garbage, absolute garbage. He’s getting tattooed this year.

Mark:

Jeff.

Jeff:

Yeah, I’m going under. Listen, I’m going to tell you why, okay? This day is fascinating. Explain this to me. You have a guy in Corbin that has been destroyed, completely destroyed. Has ERA over 11, Trevor Rogers has been a disaster as well. You have a total here that opened eight. It’s been bet down to seven and a half, with these two pictures on the mound. The truth of the matter is though, the school runs at baseball, you have to hit, and neither of these teams can hit, especially against lefties.

Jeff:

I don’t know about this one, Eric, I’m going to disagree with you. I don’t want to do it. You might be right. At the end of the day, these are bad pictures and that usually comes to the forefront, but that’s a concern. We saw this week. Remember a TC with that national game, Mark was on?

Mark:

Right.

Jeff:

It was a stone cold over. It was back from 10 and a half down to nine. It was a wild move, didn’t even come close. So yeah, I got to go the other way with this one.

Eric:

I’m not mad at it. I mean, unders are hitting at 60% blind this year. So I don’t love, hate taking these overs, don’t get me wrong.

Jeff:

And remember as well, the Nationals are hitting two 16 against lefties, the Marlins are right around the same. So again, to hit and score runs, we need a hitter. You need hitters to hit. So it will be a fascinating one. I wish I had eight though. And that would be where I didn’t play it, I just want the eight. But if he is getting eight and he can play eight maybe you get lucky here and it hits four four.

Mark:

The wind really was blowing in a lot last night and there were shots that could have been out of Nats park last night. So thinking also possibly that the weather is factoring into this as well too, so we’ll have to see how this goes. Okay. So lock Eric in for that over eight in a battle of a couple bad pitchers in this one and a couple of anemic offenses as well, too. So good luck to you, man, on even money on that one over eight. All right, next game here, guys. We’ve got to go ahead and look at the Royals and the White Sox. We’ve got the money line here with the White Sox at -175, Royals +155. Total is six and a half. Very low total on this one, Brad Keller, going to the mound for Kansas city and then Michael Kopech going for the White Sox.

Mark:

All right. I like the White Sox in this game, mentioned it yesterday. I was afraid to get on the White Sox because of the losing eight in a row, knew they had to break it sometime, they ended up doing it yesterday. So I think the White Sox are about ready to turn things around a little bit. And for me, you look at Kopech, he’s a hard luck loser. And I love betting in games like this, where you have a hard luck loser coming off the last start. What I mean by that is a guy pitches well enough, but he gets the loss, and that’s exactly what happened when he pitched against Minnesota in his last start. He’s been pretty good, 15 strikeouts, one earned run, only give up six hits, Keller, for me, I want no part of Brad Keller whatsoever.

Mark:

This guy has 13 career starts against the White Sox. Think about this, 13 career stats. And most of them haven’t been very good. So for me, I’m going to take a shot with the White Sox here. I know I got to lay 175. I’m okay with the it, because I think they get the W here today. So they’ll hold my money for a couple hours. And by the way, guys, I got to bet against somebody who’s pitching from Flowery Branch, Georgia. That’s right. Flowery Branch, Georgia doesn’t work for me. No Brad Kellers for me, I’ll take the white Sox -175. Go Jeff.

Eric:

[inaudible 00:23:29].

Jeff:

It’s interesting though, it’s from Snellville, Georgia. So that hurts your Flowery Branch comment, but he went to Flowery Branch High School. We can’t knock high schools because you can only live certain places and he didn’t decide that TC. That’s not fair. Ultimately I agree with you and I’m going to tell you something, Kopech has been incredible and you know who he reminds you of TC, Mr. Blackburn last night, who you had and we both like. And Mark, I got to tell you, Mark, you’ve been dead wrong on Mr. Blackburn. I hate to tell you, it’s time to understand. The truth is though, we like Blackburn because we can lay 110 or we can get a plus money price.

Jeff:

I’m not really huge on laying 175 on Kopech, I wish there was a bit better value on the guy. I think they win, but we know Kopech’s good, but I don’t know if I trust a White Sox completely to hit right now, I just don’t. If you share a better price, I’d have interest with you. And I’ll tell you, I like Kopech, but I just think it’s a bit high of a price for me to get involved with, especially with him.

Mark:

Just so Jeff, Flowery Branch is a suburb of Snellville, there you go. I went exactly right to the neighborhood.

Jeff:

Well, I mean on mlb.com it’s… Either way, I mean, you can’t knock there, his parents live there. I’m sure he’d rather the live somewhere else.

Mark:

I know. All right, Eric, what do you think?

Eric:

Couldn’t agree with you more, man. I’m all aboard Kopech, I’ve been all aboard this kid since high school, the Tommy Johns couple years ago, but he’s coming back. I think he’s a transcendent player, to be honest. I got this at 160 last night, this stuff is just nasty, he gives me like carry wood vibes. He’s just sick. He snaps off that curve ball. He’s up in 96, 97, 98 with the hitter. I think he’s just coming into his own. This guy’s going to be a $2 favorite for the rest of his career. I think he’s just completely filthy. I agree with you-

Mark:

I’ll tell you what that’s a damn good breakdown right there.

Eric:

I’d agree with you though as far as the White Sox being injured, their entire lineup is depleted. They still got TA and a couple of guys going off. I couldn’t lay the run line just based on the big Hendricks guy. I know Mark’s got them like the number one reliever too, but he just challenges you with 90 down the plate. But I think this is the low, I think we’re going to see Kopech +230 or -230 for the rest of his career, to be honest with you.

Mark:

And we know it’s just a matter of time for the White Sox bats get going and they turn things around. So I think today’s a good day to make it two in a row today. So lock me in for the Chicago White Sox today. Not a big White Sox guy, but I just think definitely it bears today laying 175 with the White Sox over the Royals. All right, next game, guys. Let’s take a look at here as we move forward here. As we look at the board, it is the Red Sox and the Blue Jays, seems like they’ve been playing all week haven’t they? Blue Jays, -140, they total seven and a half in this game. Let’s start with you Jeff, you got any thoughts on Boston and Toronto here?

Jeff:

Yeah. It’s funny, I actually thought Boston, I think it was Monday, I liked them or whenever that was, Tuesday, but look, I’ve talked before. I’m a big Manoa guy. I think it was the underrated pitcher talk we were talking about. Look, if I’m going to get him in these price ranges, I’m going to have interest. It’s quite simple. Whitlock he’s been obviously solid as well, good strike. Both these guys, 18 strikeouts so far, very solid. I like to try to line up, especially at home and at this price, if you’re going to still give me 130-ish on Manoa, I’m going to have some interest. I didn’t run to bet it, by the way, I think Manoa is one of those just auto bets. I’m going to have interest in him. I feel like if I back Manoa with this lineup, I’m going to win more than I lose.

Mark:

Yeah. I agree with you. And I love betting on teams that are coming off losses that are good solid teams that have a rock solid lineup and with a decent pitcher going, and that kind of falls into the play here with the blue Jays. So yeah, I do like Toronto slightly in this game. Again, nothing against Whitlock. I mean both these pitchers are actually pretty good and especially ERA wise, I mean, both guys are under too. I mean, Whitlock’s actually under one right now. I know it’s early in the season, only got a couple stats to go off of, but good pitchy match up here today in Toronto, Eric?

Eric:

I’m in completely agreement with you guys. Jeff might actually just talk me into Toronto-

Mark:

Wait, you talking about adding the 10 plate-

Eric:

… but to honest with you-

Mark:

Is that what you’re talking about here?

Eric:

If you check my Twitter page where I post everything, there might be a 14 up, but at home Manoah 2.41, four home runs 54 and a third innings, opponents hitting 153 at home. The guy’s a monster. He’s just figuring it out. I agree with Whitlock and they’re starting to stretch them out a little. I think he’ll go three or four, as opposed to being in that opener he was in the beginning of the year. So I went with the first five under, feels like a 2-0 type of situation. 2-1 after five. I agree with you guys though. I think Manoah is that guy. I think he’s a big boy. I don’t think his durability will never be a problem. He’s fun to watch, man. He’s real fun to watch.

Mark:

Right. Let’s lock Ekin with his bets here today on the Blue Jays, first five under four, laying 120 for that, and then we all have a slight lean towards the Toronto Blue Jays as well too in this game.

Jeff:

Vladimir Guerrero is out.

Eric:

That Sucks.

Mark:

Yeah. Say that again.

Jeff:

Vladimir Guerrero is out.

Mark:

Yeah. Yeah. He’s not going to play today. So it might go well sort of the first five under. All right, Cleveland and the Angels today, over in Anaheim, the Angels -155, total in this game is eight and a half. Deborah’s going for the Angels today and Quantrill for the Guardians. Let’s start with you Eric, thoughts on this game?

Eric:

Love this. I’m a little baffled by this line to be honest, I made Cleveland a favorite here with Quantrill eight and one at home, last 17 starts two point 2.25 ERA. Deborah’s is good young player and I’m sure he is going to be good, but he’s just not just yet. He’s 22. He hasn’t figured it out and this lineup’s just mashing for Cleveland, which I didn’t see coming. Jose Ramirez is out of his mind right now. They’re sixth in batting average ninth in runs. They’ve scored four in at least six of their last 10 road games. Quantrill’s just nice. I’m confused by this line a little and I’m a huge trout stan. I be interested to hear what Jeff thinks being from that area. Trout’s a God around there. But yeah, I think the wrong team’s favorite here. I went first five [inaudible 00:30:21] mismatch too.

Mark:

Yeah. Two bets here. Jeff thoughts on Angels and the Guardians.

Jeff:

It’s interesting. Every time I hear Cal Quantrill’s name, I think of the absolutely awful history of William Quantrill. And I don’t know if many people know who he is. Look up William Quantrill as far as in history, an awful individual, I would not want to have that last name. That being said as far as Michael Trout, yes, I like Mike Trout, love Mike Trout. In fact, at the Atlantic City Press, a little newspaper in South Jersey, they still track his numbers every day in the paper. They put the little thing in about how he’s doing. Yeah, it’s pretty great. He’s from a little town in South Jersey. But as far as this one, we talked about the Cleveland Indians, how they had started hot, their offenses on fire and now you look up and they’re seven and eleven they’ve come back to earth completely.

Jeff:

Yeah. I don’t think they’re a very good team, quite frankly. This is not the team of yester-year with Kluber and some of those great hitter. Lindor, those kind of guys. Now that they’ve become the Guardian, I think I said Indians Guardians. There’s one thing about Cleveland I like, and I’ll tell you what it is guys. I think one of the greatest television shows ever made is The First 48. I mean, when we think about it, it’s a truly incredible show. Watch it and you’ll understand why. Cleveland, they do Cleveland homicide. It’s great. It’s a great city and their cops are great. I love that part of Cleveland, but I’m not real interested in the Cleveland Guardians.

Mark:

All right. I’ll take the rock and roll hall of fame any day. So that [inaudible 00:31:54]. And my apologies.

Jeff:

Good point.

Mark:

Also, Paul Quantrill, there’s another Quantrill that I don’t have great memories of Paul Quantrill either. So-

Jeff:

Well, do you know who William Quantrill is though?

Mark:

No, no.

Jeff:

He’s a pretty awful person. I mean, in the Civil War, he killed a lot of people. He was an outlaw. He was a bad dude, a bad guy.

Eric:

No relation, I’m assuming.

Jeff:

I don’t believe so, no. I would hope not.

Mark:

All right, there we go. Today’s history lesson brought to you by Jeff Nadu and that’s great. Jeff, I want to invite you to Vegas so you can come and I’ll hook you up at the Mob Museum. You would love to see the Mob Museum here in Las Vegas, Scott [inaudible 00:32:32] all over it.

Jeff:

It’s interesting. So a good friend of mine’s on the board there and I’ve been saying to him, “Scott, you need to get me out there. I need to do some speaking out there. That would be my lifelong dream to go out to the Mob Museum and do some speaking about La Mafia. Yeah, I’ve been wanting to get out there. When you’re an East Coast guy, I mean, that’s a long ride, man. That’s a long ride in a plane. And for me with gambling, like I could do it here. So it’s like, getting out there is not easy, but I should get out there. The Mob Museum seems like something I would like so you never know maybe I-

Mark:

It’s a great spot. Been several times, love it. All right. Lock in Eric’s picks in there for the Guardians and the Angels taking Cleveland +140 and also first five with Cleveland as well too at plus 120. Eric’s got a lot of plus plays today, lot of plus money which is good.

Eric:

Oh, I’m all about the plus money, man. You can’t win, especially with volume laying any sort of juice in baseball.

Mark:

All right, let’s go. Speaking of juice, we’re going to lay some juice in this next game. The Cubs and the Braves. Drew Smyly going for the Cubs, Kyle Wright, back at it for the Atlanta Braves, this line has now gone up to 210 with the Braves, Cubs +180, total in this game, eight and a half. As we know guys, the Braves have been a little bit uneven offensively, but the two pitchers I love and I play just about every time out is Kyle Wright and Max Fried and a good on Wright last time out and good on Fried two days ago. So if we’re going back with that again, the Braves usually show up when their good pitchers are on the hill. Kyle Wright has been phenomenal. 26 strikeouts, only two walks, two earned runs, coming off a shutout last time versus Miami. And then on the other side, we got Drew Smiley. Smiley got lit up like a Christmas tree last time against the Pirates. Four runs, six innings, gave up two dingers in that game and only lasted five innings.

Mark:

So for me, this is a play obviously on Wright, but it’s also a play against Smiley. And I know the Cubs are at the top as far as batting average and on-base and that sort of thing. I’m just one of these guys, I just still am not believing in the Cubs lineup. I mean, you got a lot of young guys, they’re starting to scale back a little bit now. I don’t see how they’re going to be able to put any quality at bats together against Wright, if Wright stays the way he’s been. I feel bad that Basewinner isn’t with us because you know how he feels about Wright. He’s on the opposite side of me every time we go about right here. But yeah, like Kyle Wright.

Jeff:

Listen, I love mark. He’s hilarious. He’s a good guy. But some of the way analytical people think just doesn’t make sense to me. I’ve said that before. I mean Kyle Wright has been absolutely terrific. Okay? Terrific. And he’s a number one overall top five pick for a reason.

Mark:

Yeah. Number five overall, right?

Jeff:

Yeah. The guy’s electric. I mean he’s got 26 strikeouts over 17 innings. He’s only two in runs and 17. He’s been awesome. And look, you got another team here as you alluded to, it’s not good offensively. This is an Atlanta Braves team that hasn’t been great offensive as you talked about, but again, South Poles they’ve been great. I mean they’re hitting a lot better. They’ve been a lot more effective. They struck out less. So yeah, I co-signed this plate, but I have to ask you TC who drinks more juice today? You or the Jamba juice worker up the street? Because you’re both around a lot of juice today, you laying a lot of it.

Mark:

I am juice. And like I told you before we came on today, not crazy about the card, but limiting it to the two plays that I feel strongly about. And of course, you could go the Basewinner route of hooking these two teams up in a parlay and getting plus money which I’m not really opposed to in situations like this. And again, I’ll do that and I’ll lay it. Like I said, when I know I got a rock solid pitcher, I got an advantage with my pitcher against the hitters in my offense going against that. Braves are at home as well too. I just think it’s a good spot. So again, I don’t have a problem laying it as well too. There we go. Hey, should I, should I maybe just even get it down a little bit lower and tie into the Philadelphia Sixers tonight too Jeff or what? No, I’m staying away from that. I’m just kidding.

Jeff:

Yeah. I don’t know if I would do that. I mean the Toronto Raptors have won 21 of 25 at home against the Sixers. I wouldn’t run to do that right now, no.

Mark:

No. I was just joking as well too. So yeah. Eric, quick thoughts.

Eric:

I agree with you, Wright’s emerging as there a best picture. I’m not going to lay the juice. I like a parlay maybe with Atlanta. It breaks my heart to lay that kind of juice. But I think they’re a strong parlay piece maybe with like St. Louis or the White Sox or something like that. I think that’s a nice play.

Mark:

Remember guys, the juice only affects you if you leave.

Eric:

If you leave.

Mark:

On not betting, on loosing. There you go.

Jeff:

That’s true.

Eric:

When you played 16 games a day though, I can’t afford a -1 [inaudible 00:37:24].

Jeff:

Unlike you, I’m not betting the entire card. There you go. But that’s okay. Two weeks is up, no problem man. Lock me in Braves today, -210. There you go. All right. Final game of the docket. The last one tonight, Arizona and St. Louis, the Cardinals $1.65 favorite, if you like the Dbacks +145. Good luck on that. Seven and a half is the total in this game, shaded to the under at -115. Humberto Castellanos going for the Diamondbacks, Dakota Hudson, both of these pictures have control problems, guys. I really don’t want any part of this. But St. Louis bats, unfortunately, Jeff saw that first and yesterday they came alive with the comeback there yesterday. They got some good pieces to this Cardinal’s lineup, as we know, but not crazy about Hudson, not crazy about Castellanos either. I don’t want any part of this game, but I’ll let you guys decide here. Jeff, any thoughts?

Jeff:

Well, look, book makers love Arizona after the last couple nights, they’ve really put a wrench in the thoughts of a lot of squares out there who just auto bet the Dodgers. And how many parlays were screwed the last couple of nights, because of the Diamondbacks. That being said, I don’t have much in this game, two starters and not real high on. And obviously I’ve had a lot of issues with St. Louis in my career. So I don’t know why I even entertain their games and I won’t be here. I don’t have much on this one. I think it’s kind of coin flippy, two teams that I’m not real high on long-term. So it’s a pass for me.

Mark:

Yeah. It seems like a good, if I had to play this game, I would take a shot with the Cardinals, just because I’m just anti Arizona in that offense. And again, don’t like what Arizona’s thrown on the hill today as well too, Eric, what you got?

Eric:

Agree, this is just a gross game. I’ve followed Hudson for a while. I had a buddy that played with him in high school. Big kid just never really came to his full potential, I think. They both walked the world seven and a half feels a little low, but I agree with you with that Arizona offense, it’s just anemic. It’s an easy pass game, for sure.

Mark:

Okay. There we go. So we passing on this game. All right, let’s go to the chat. If you got some questions, hit us in the chat room here real quick regarding any of the games that we talked about or anything else that you want to know regarding Major League Baseball. Daniel’s got a question, he’s asking about the Mariners tonight. Now we know that Basewinner is not here and he’s on that, leading that bandwagon. The Mariners and the Rays are going at it again today. And Flexen, we’ve talked about him many times, he’s on the hill today going against Spriggs for Tampa Bay. Tampa bay is at 155 favorite. Any interest guys in the Dog and the Mariners today?

Eric:

I liked them, but I just, the Rays are literally unbeatable for me. They do. If I be on them, they lose. If I bet against them, they win. I can’t figure out the openers. They just have my number. I like Seattle today, but I’m not touching it because I’m just terrified and gun shy of that Tampa Bay team and what cash does with them.

Mark:

Yeah. And I know we’ve talked about Flexen before Jeff. I think you like Flexen.

Jeff:

I do like Flenex, but I hate the Mariners. So I’m not really interested here. Yeah. I think Flexen gets a little disrespected in the market. I mean, he’s a $1.35 Dawg against a guy in Jeffrey Springs who quite frankly in the major leagues, hasn’t been great. I think there’s a little bit of excitement around him though, because last year, I mean, in 44 or so innings, he was actually pretty solid after a couple bad outings. And you look at the fact that he was at Texas. That’s kind of a messy area as far as bullpen and the stadium, a lot of things go crazy there. So now that is in Tampas, it’s been a lot better. So maybe they expect some excitement or optimism around him. I don’t have much on this one. I don’t like the Mariners, so I’m not interested.

Mark:

Right. All right. Let’s see. Northbound Train wants to ask a question about the Tigers as a Dog today. Any thoughts about the Tigers?

Jeff:

Yeah. I know Mark Borchard is high on [scubo 00:41:37].

Mark:

Yeah.

Jeff:

Yeah. And I actually kind of am as well. I think that’s a pretty decent shout today, but again, it’s the Tigers, the excitement of Miguel Cabrera 3000 hits over, but they have, I’ll tell you, and here’s why I would back them today, I like the splits and against lefties they’re good. Both teams are pretty good against lefties. The problem is Minnesota’s not facing a lefty. I got the stuff wrong today. My bad. I’m looking at the wrong game I think here.

Mark:

That’s okay.

Jeff:

Throw out everything I just said, never mind.

Mark:

Tiger’s Twins today. Twins last won 3.

Jeff:

No opinion.

Mark:

Tiger’s a Dog. Any thoughts on the Tigers as a Dog today, Eric?

Eric:

I’ll lean with the Dog too, over doesn’t do anything for me, but this is an easy pass game for me. I really wouldn’t touch either side here.

Mark:

All right. All right. There it is getaway day, on this Thursday, and we hit just about all of them there today. So we appreciate you chiming in with the chats as well too. All right, guys, let’s wrap things up and let’s look at our best bets today. Jeff and I, a little bit light on the card here today. And Eric has taken over the card with all kinds of plays. So let’s go over that. Jeff likes the Reds today. The game just started right now, already Reds -110. I am on the White Sox at 175, it’s Kopech over Keller in the Royals. And then I’ll take a shot with Atlanta today. Of course, Kyle Wright, until he does me wrong, right now looks like the best pitcher in baseball laying 210 with the Bravos against the Cubs. Eric’s got the Brewer’s Pirates game over seven and a half at even money, team total in that game as well, over four and a half runs scored by the Brew crew. And then also the first five team total over for the Brewers.

Eric:

That’s plus money, by the way, but that’s okay.

Mark:

Plus money. Okay. Then we go to the Rockies, taking a big Dog, a shot with a Rockies, a +170 against the Phillies. Miami Washington game over eight, and that is even money. That’s only half his plays, the other half coming into-

Eric:

Keep going.

Mark:

… White Sox in the first five. And then we’ve got Boston, Toronto, first five as well too, under four runs. And then the guardian at +140, and in the same game, the guardians and the first five innings to outscore the opponent there at +120. So a lot of plus money. So hopefully you’re cashing some tickets my friend and not throwing away many.

Eric:

Yes sir. Acuña is back today by the way, for your Bravos, you know that he’s playing right here tonight?

Mark:

I saw that, yeah. I meant to mention that Acuña is back today.

Eric:

Yeah. Got the call this morning.

Mark:

Don’t know how effective that he’ll be, again, since being out for so long, but he’s back in the lineup. That’s going to bode well for the Braves going forward.

Eric:

That guy can get out of bed and hit some hit 300 though. So I’m not too worried about him.

Mark:

Yeah. There you go. All right, final thoughts here today, Jeff, where are you watching the draft? I’m going to be smack dab in the middle of it, crazy day for me, of course here in Las Vegas hosting the draft. My schedule’s crazy today, but it is it’s. We have got over a million people are going to descending on Las Vegas for this craziness. Give me the Philadelphia draft experience.

Jeff:

Well, for me, I’ll just be in my house and watching it. I mean, nothing crazy for me. Listen, I expect and hope for a good draft. I’ll say some positivity about the Eagles. I don’t think that far off, I really don’t. I think they can really attack the next two or three days and get a lot better. I don’t think it’s out of the question. I think they can’t steal this division with the right draft this year. So I’m hoping for something good and we’ll see what happens. But as I know with this group. I remember, TC real quick, when I was at Barstool, I wrote a blog about their ineffectiveness at drafting at the receiver position, like over the last 12, 15 years, it’s been this disaster. So, yeah, it’s concerning, but let’s hope it’s like last year and they get another high quality player.

Mark:

Yeah. Another targeting Jameson Williams out of Alabama [inaudible 00:45:42] ACL.

Jeff:

And that would be just great. I’ll be just fine with that.

Mark:

There you go. So more Alabama guys coming your way to hook up with Jalen Hurts. I think that’s-

Jeff:

Maybe Jalen Hunts, Devonte Smith, and Jameson taking Alabama players usually works out so-

Mark:

Why don’t you go? Why don’t you call Nick Saban and have him come over and coach the team while you’re at it.

Jeff:

I wouldn’t-

Mark:

Your boy Nick Saban, there you go.

Jeff:

I love Nick Saban. I wouldn’t be mad about that.

Mark:

There you go. All right. So Eric, you’re a New York guy. Let me ask you, did you ever go to a draft day experience, Radio City music hall. Were you one of these guys, you were wearing your Giants Jersey going nuts?

Eric:

No. I mean, families had season tickets to the Giants since the 77. So we’re a diehard Giant family, but I never made it to Radio City for the draft, no. It is usually a big family thing. Few too many beers, watch us completely miss on the draft every year with a left tackle and we’ll call it a day.

Jeff:

I still remember, real quick before we go. This is a great memory that Eric needs to hear, okay? I remember this perfectly. So I’ve said before, and I’ll bring this up, my best friend is in federal prison. He’s been in federal prison for nine years. He gets out at the end of the year and I can’t wait. I’m excited to see him. Before he went away, this is a true story, him and I went 2010, I believe it was to the Meadowlands. Miracle at the Meadowlands, we were one of the only Eagles fans in that section when DeSean Jackson ran the pump back-

Eric:

The pumps.

Jeff:

It was electric. Matt Dodge, a punts at the Sean Jackson, DeSean-

Eric:

As soon as the ball hit the ground, it was over. I called it live.

Jeff:

It was electric. Yeah, it was incredible. One of the best games I’ve ever been to, it was great.

Mark:

All right, guys, a busy day in sports, we got the NFL draft, NBA playoffs, and then we got a full slate of Major League Baseball game. So appreciate it as always. All right, Jeff, have a good one. Catch up when [inaudible 00:47:30]-

Jeff:

Well, Red’s Already losing so no surprise there.

Mark:

Eric. Thanks for joining us, my friend, and good luck to you with your place today man.

Jeff:

Appreciate it guys. Thank you, man.

Mark:

All right, sounds good. Basewinner will be back with us tomorrow. TC Martin saying so long again and join us. Remember, Monday through Friday, right here. 12 noon, Eastern time BetUS TV, The MLB Show. Make sure you like and subscribe the channel and the show. Click that bell so you get the notifications when we go live. We’ll back at it again, tomorrow at 12 noon, have a good day.

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