MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Baseball Betting Odds [Thursday July 7]

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, absolutely. I can give you two innings. I got my haircut yesterday and I think they cut it a little bit short because it’s looking like Jeff’s. I don’t want Jeff thinking that I’m getting my hair cut like him. I know he’s a ladies man and everything, but is it the hairstyle? Is that part of the charm there Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I think it would be part of it. I think a lot of it has to do with just my overall demeanor and just everything about me. But I think your hair looks fine to be honest. Looks very old guy-ish.

Mark Borchard:

Hey, that means a lot coming from you, Jeff as the ladies man of the show, I really appreciate that. Thanks.

Jeff Nadu:

I definitely cosign.

TC Martin:

You know what I don’t understand there Mark, what are you doing getting your cut in the middle of the day? You’re supposed to get your haircut on Friday nights, late night Friday night barbershop.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, only the privileged can do that. Only the few that are the ladies man of the world get their cut on Friday night before they go out and steal other people’s girlfriends.

TC Martin:

Jeff, why don’t you take a camera crew with you on Friday night, next time you go get a haircut and go to the bar. I think our viewers would love to see that.

Jeff Nadu:

Well, that might be in the works here in the next couple of months. We’ll see. I’ll definitely let you know. But that being said, a guy that I think probably is a ladies man, if he’s not married, Corbin Burnes. Corbin Burnes is the best pitcher in the NL. He’s better than Alcántara, he’s better than Nola. He’s better than all of them. Shout out to Corbin Burnes, another gem yesterday. 10 strikeouts, TC. I’ll tell you what, I’m going to be really eyeing his strikeout prop. I don’t bet a ton of those, but I’m going to be eyeing them against teams that strike out a lot i.e., The Cubs. Great performance, Burnes is terrific.

TC Martin:

That was a perfect handicap as well too, Jeff. Nailed the strikeout prop yesterday of over eight and a half and it just all lined up, Burnes his big strikeout guy. I rattled off the numbers. He had double digits in his last four times against the Cubs. Jeff rattled off the Cubs strikeout just about more than anybody and especially against Burnes. That was good, that was nice.

Jeff Nadu:

Also, one other thing, TC. It was a lucky day for me yesterday because the Mets-Reds game, going into the 10th was 3-3. I have over 10, I get beat on the number and what do the Mets do? They put up five in the 10th and I called the score, 8-3. It’s a winner. Got to love it.

TC Martin:

Yeah, yeah. That was something else. I was working last night doing the Aces game and I’m looking at during one of the timeouts, I’m going 3-3 because I had the Mets myself last night and they were down early and I go, “Oh man.” Then I was thinking about you, Jeff. And then after the game, I look at my phone. I go 8-3, what happened? The explosion happened in the 10th. So there we go. We both got paid on that one. So that’s baseball and we talk about the ghost runner in extra innings, especially the visiting team. You get hot, string a couple hits together. There you have it. That’s baseball. It goes from a dead under, the entire game is a dead under and you get to extra innings and it goes over a very high total of 10, like you said, Jeff. And this goes back to what I said last week, remember about maybe being careful about playing some of these unders ala college football. And you get this every once in a while with the ghost runner.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. We’re getting to the point now where in the end, you’re looking at these bullpens, you’re looking at weather conditions. It’s hard to play unders now. I remember beginning of the season, I think a lot of it had to do just with the weather. It was still cold and teams just getting into hitting, but it seems like it’s starting to open up out there. Look at the Yankees last night, they put a huge number up on the board. They seemed pretty pissed off after that Pirate game the other night. There’s some bad bullpens in Major League Baseball man, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Washington, there’s some high scoring games. A lot of it has do with that.

TC Martin:

All right, guys. Let’s dive into today’s game. Before we do that, let’s get the updated record board up in front of you there and pretty good day yesterday like I said, Jeff. He got the sweep yesterday. Very nicely done. Scott hit the New York, New York parlay yesterday as well too. I ended up splitting yesterday, but good thing that the Mets came back in extra innings. So that was nice. So there we go. Got that rolling for you today. And today, we’re going to look at five games on the Major League Baseball board. Got some day baseball today, getaway day for some of the teams. So we’ll dive into it and get busy for you today. And we will start with the Houston Astros hosting the Kansas City Royals. This is the fourth game of their series. Astros took the first two games. Royals got one last night, winning 7-4. Astros, a huge favorite today, 335. And that’s because Justin Verlander is going on the mound today for the Astros. And then Bubic is going for KC today.

TC Martin:

Total in this game is eight, -115 towards the over in this game. All right, let’s get it cracking here. Base winner, who do you like? Royals-Astros? How you want to play it?

Mark Borchard:

Well before I start, I just want to say that I don’t think Verlander is awful. He’s not villain number three by any means, but this particular price to me is just way too high. I chose to play it on the run line. I’m going to play the Royals plus one and a half and it actually has gone up to +144 right now. I put it out at +122. So I was actually behind the line move last night. But I think that it’s hard to say a lot of good things about Chris Bubic. It’s not Bubic, it’s Bubic and I’m just saying the pronunciation. It has nothing to do with his numbers or anything, but his numbers are poor. He’s 20% worse than average in the model. The one thing that’s interesting about him is he has been pretty unlucky. He’s got a five percentile from a luck standpoint. So the lower, the unluckier the guy’s been and he’s in the five percentile.

Mark Borchard:

And then Verlander’s been pretty lucky. He’s in the 84th percentile from a luck standpoint on that individual pitcher luck chart. But just talking a little bit about Verlander and I just don’t want to get everybody fired up because people thought that I hated Verlander’s wife, I wanted to see Verlander get DFA’d. That’s not what I’m saying.

Mark Borchard:

But if you look at his base winner ERA, and this is strikeout percentage, walk percentage and ground ball percentage. Things the pitcher can control. He’s at 3.42 for the season. Puts him 33rd in baseball, nothing wrong with that, but I don’t think this guy should be the front runner or he’s the second runner for the AL Cy Young. And you compare that to a guy who’s starting today, Gerrit Cole. He’s at 2.74. He’s 8th in baseball and Cole’s behind Verlander in the Cy Young market, which I just honestly don’t get both these Cy Young. And Jeff said Burnes should be better than Alcántara the NL Cy Young. I totally agree with that. Alcántara is in the 30s on base winner ERA. Burnes is second in baseball or second in the National League only to Spencer Strider, he’s got a low sample size. So I agree with Jeff on it, but I digress off this game.

Mark Borchard:

I think Verlander’s good. I just don’t think he’s as good as everybody thinks he is. And if you look at this Kansas City offense, they’ve done some interesting things and it’s been unknown to a lot of people because people really don’t follow the Royals, but they got rid of Santana and Santana’s now in Seattle and they put a guy in the cleanup spot, Vinny Pasquantino and I practiced that for probably five minutes before I said it, an isolated power of 225 and a BBK of .73. So plate discipline and power are two really important things. And I think if you’re using projections for rookie players, it’s been proven over the years, that the steamers are the most reliable. So it’s an incredible Testament to this guy’s ability. And so we’ll see how he plays out.

Mark Borchard:

Well, two of the other good things about this game from a team standpoint, if you look at plate discipline, this is walks divided by strikeouts offensively. Number one is Houston and I’ll give everybody that. They’ve got a great offense. But number nine in baseball, Kansas City Royals, this is full season. And then if you look over the last 30 days, it goes Yankees, Astros, and then your Kansas city Royals. So a lot of good reasons to go with the run line here. I’m going to play the run line here at I guess it’s at +140 right now, right about there.

TC Martin:

Okay. Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, Mark. I was hoping we would be done with that breakdown by Christmas. My God. Mark, that was wild. But that being said, listen Mark, I think you’re reaching a little bit here. You continue to be very negative on Verlander. I get the price thought though. It does seem a spit high. That being said, when you look at some of the other particulars though, it’s hard to go against this Houston lineup against Bubic. He’s a disaster quite honestly. In away games this year, opponents are hitting almost 310 off him. He’s not been good really at any level. The bullpen is an atrocious mess out in Kansas City.

Jeff Nadu:

I guess for me, if I were looking towards Kansas City, why not just take the over? I feel like Houston’s probably going to score five or six. Game screams 7-2 to me or something, but I’m going to root for you here. I didn’t end up playing this one. It could be one of those weird matinee matchups where Verlander gets crushed like he did that one Friday night that TC and I were on him against Seattle. I could see it, I guess. I’ll be rooting for you here.

TC Martin:

Okay. I will come to the defense of Justin Verlander here. I do-

Jeff Nadu:

I defended him a little.

TC Martin:

Yeah, I know, but you’re too nice, Jeff. You’re too nice saying that he’s not throwing in a clunker today and the Astros are going to rip Bubic. Bubic’s ERA is 7.06. He’s had 11 starts this year, he’s only struck out 37. I want you to think about this. 11 starts, how do you only strike out 37? And by the way, he’s walked 26. There’s going to be a lot of traffic on the base pads here today. And as far as Verlander goes, he had a couple bad starts, but the reason why he is still considered the front runner up for the Cy Young, I don’t want to get it all into the Cy Young thing, because again, that’s a voting thing and that’s a full season thing and this and that.

TC Martin:

But here’s why Verlander is at the top, is because he has something that no other pitcher has and that is, he has eight… Rather, five shutouts this year. Not complete game shutouts, but he’s gone seven or eight innings where he’s given up no runs, no other pitcher in baseball has put up five zeros in starts. And you go back to what he did against the Mets, shut them out. Basically had a no hitter in that game. Went eight innings, no runs, two hits. That was his last start. Dusty has pushed him back. He’s on seven days rest right now, which is unheard of. And the reason why he has no injury, but they want to just conserve him for the second half of the season, coming out of the Tommy John surgery, he has been fantastic. He’s carried this starting crew.

TC Martin:

And now with Justin Verlander at home against an opponent like the Royals, I just see him having his way with them because he’s done this against similar opponents where he shut out and dominated Seattle, Minnesota, Washington, and the Mets. And I think that today is going to be one of these games, especially with the Astros coming off a loss. And as far as the game goes, we can’t play the game guys, you’re right. It’s -335, it’s insane. But you could probably make an argument for the run line, but you’re going to still lay a lot of juice for that as will too.

TC Martin:

But finally saying that is just the Astros are not going to walk out of here with a split against the Kansas City Royals, they’re going to win three out of four. Verlander is going to be lights out more than likely today and the Astros bats are going to explode over Bubic.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I think the only way you play it is team total. That’s the way you have to play it. I just want to say one other thing about Bubic. In 11 starts or anyone over 10 starts, I think we can make a strong case he might be the worst starter in Major League Baseball. Again, opponents are hitting 309 off Bubic, but it’s his WHIP. I can’t say I’ve seen a guy in a long time have a WHIP at 1.87, he’s walking people 12.5% of the time. That’s very high. And for a team in Houston that’s very patient at the plate, they’re just really solid, great hitters. I have several concerns about him here. I don’t know that I see it if I’m Mark, but I guess he’s just hoping for one of those weird matinee games.

Mark Borchard:

Not necessarily. You mentioned that he’s the worst pitcher in Major League Baseball.

Jeff Nadu:

Mark, he is. It’s bad.

Mark Borchard:

It’s arguable whether he is or not, he’s definitely in the bottom tier, but that the fact that he is a Major League pitcher, that means a lot. Even the worst guys in Major League Baseball, they can shut down a really good team and it’s been done more than once over the course of 75 years. So the price gets up into this level with a pitcher who is better than average starting for Houston, but not at the elite level, at least not by my numbers against an offense that’s capable, that Royals offense is capable. So I just think that from a price standpoint, it should be priced right. I have it at -261. I’m not saying that Royals should be favored here. I’m just saying that this game, it’s overpriced. So I’m going to take advantage of it.

Jeff Nadu:

Let me ask you one thing, Mark. I guess outside of the plus price you’re getting back, which is attractive obviously.

Mark Borchard:

Which is the whole thing, right?

Jeff Nadu:

But again, why not just play the over? Obviously you would expect if Kansas City’s going to hang in this game and cover the one and a half, they’re probably going to have to score four-ish runs or more at eight and a half. I’m becoming a little bit more interested in that as I look more and more.

TC Martin:

Let me say this and Mark, I understood your play yesterday, because you took the same play yesterday. It wasn’t on the show, but that made sense against a Javier or an Achebe, one of those type of guys and with a better pitcher that the Royals had going yesterday. But against the elite pitcher in Verlander, against the worst pitcher on the Royal staff, I think that’s where the question mark comes in. But yesterday, I totally understood that because that was the spot that the Astros could fold and that’s what happened.

Jeff Nadu:

He might make us look all real dumb here in about two hours.

Mark Borchard:

It’s one game too. And like I said, I have it priced at -261 and 261 is 72% that the Astros will win. But at some point, you got to play against these huge favorites when they’re overpriced.

TC Martin:

Yeah. And that was yesterday and I think you nailed it yesterday. I think it made sense-

Mark Borchard:

I think it’s crossed a threshold here and you guys don’t. So we just have a difference of opinion.

TC Martin:

That’s okay. You know what I think it is? I think it’s the haircut. I think when they did the haircut yesterday, something went in there and with Bubic, I don’t know. We’ll see what happened.

Mark Borchard:

No, it’s-

Jeff Nadu:

I just don’t… Go ahead, Mark.

Mark Borchard:

The only thing you can justify and I talked about this is Bubic luck factor. He’s 20% worse than an average pitcher, but even those guys will have games where they can hold the team down a bit. So we’ll see what happens.

Jeff Nadu:

But again, and I’m not calling out analytic people. I’m just saying, this is where I think for me, the signals go away for me where I just can’t get in because I feel like occasionally, these whether it’s sharps or analytical people, they’re constantly trying to make things happen that are just not there. The truth is Mark, and it’s very simple to understand. Bubic is not a good pitcher, Kansas City is not a good baseball team and Houston’s a really good baseball team with a legendary pitcher pitching. Now, if you want to bank on the fact that the legend will not pitch well, I guess. But for me, I don’t see it. And at 140, it’s a nice price but I root for you. I really will. I want all of us to do well, I guess I just don’t see it, but it’s a difference of opinion.

TC Martin:

All right. Put base winner down. He’s going to take a run line play with the Royals today, plus a run and a half at +145. Good juice there. All right guys, next up. Let’s take a look at the Yankees and the Red Sox. Always exciting when you get a weekend series between these two teams, it’s going to be at Fenway Park. I know both teams are pretty fired up. Both fan bases are really fired up for this one. The Yankees, a $1.65 favorite. Gerrit Cole going to the mound today for the Yanks and the Red Sox, +145. Josh Winkowski going for the Bo Sox today. Eight and a half is the total in this game, shaded towards the over at -120. Well guys, we saw what happened yesterday with the Yankees 16-nothing was the bounce back, talked about it yesterday. They exploded. As this game went on, they just continued to pile on runs and runs and runs.

TC Martin:

We talked about this yesterday. You saw what the Yankees do to right handed high school pitchers. And when I’m saying that, I really mean that because these guys are high school pitchers. Didn’t go to college, got thrown up in the majors and that’s what we saw yesterday with the Pirates pitcher. You have the exact same thing going today with the Boston Red Sox. Winkowski, five career starts. Those were against Baltimore, Oakland, Detroit, and the Cubs and he really hasn’t been good in any of those. If you want to make case that he’s been okay, look at who he’s pitched against. He’s in over his head in this game against the Yankees and I am playing this game and I’m taking the Yankees because it’s Gerrit Cole, because I think Cole will shut down this Red Sox team. Coming off the 16 runs yesterday, I’m going against Winkowski today.

TC Martin:

But more importantly, why I’m going against Winkowski is what came out of his mouth and I’m not sure if you guys saw this or not. But after he pitched against the Cubs, I’m going to read you his quote. He commented about Wrigley Field and someone asked him about, “Hey, pitching here in iconic, legendary Wrigley Field.” He says, “It’s a little underwhelming. As I told my mom, this place is very stock standard. If you ask me, I really don’t feel anything here. To be honest, it felt like just another ballpark.” Well, I’ll say this. I will call you Winkowski, underwhelming. Yankees crush him today for your comments against Wrigley. How dare he? Jeff, go ahead.

Jeff Nadu:

Listen, TC. No offense, but good for him. He’s right. Good for him.

TC Martin:

What’s he talking about? Have you ever been to Wrigley Field, have you been to Wrigley Field?

Jeff Nadu:

No. And I couldn’t care less about it.

TC Martin:

But you should go. You can’t speak on it then. It’s the temple of baseball.

Jeff Nadu:

Right. But Winkowski is a confident kid, he’s pitched well and good for him for injecting a little excitement into baseball, for God’s sakes. Thank God, good for him. And shout out to him for saying it because I know we all have to give homage to the old stuff. In the end, he’s not wrong. It’s probably breaking apart. It’s stupid ivy. The place sucks. Good for him, Winkowski’s been good. And I’m not just saying this, I liked him in the first five here. I really do. I don’t want to face the Yankee bullpen, but what do we know about the Yankees? If they do not hit home runs, I don’t think they’re as an effective team. They’re very home run reliant.

Jeff Nadu:

Winkowski’s given up one home run. It was in his first start against Baltimore. Since then over four starts, hasn’t given up a home run. There’s a lot of unfamiliarity with him with the Yankees. That being said, Boston actually hits Cole pretty well. I think this could be a decent spot to maybe have a shot with this. Maybe it’s a tie game, I get my money back where Boston just gets to Cole a little bit. There’s some unfamiliarity with the kid. He obviously is confident. He’s pitched pretty well as well.

TC Martin:

I will say this, the Yankees is in the right park for hitting homerooms at Fenway park. So we’ll see what happens there. Base winner?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I’ve got this priced at -195 for the Yankees. So I’m showing really good value with the Yankees and Cole. I’m going to make it the first leg of the parlay. I’m going to put the Braves in the second leg. But just real quick, Winkowski and you can call him a high school pitcher and call him an a-hole because he doesn’t like Wrigley Field, but let’s look at the pitching plus number because I think that’s really important because he doesn’t have a lot of body of work. So his pitching plus number, 36th percentile. So that’s a little underwhelming.

Mark Borchard:

Compare that to Cole who’s a 96th percentile pitching plus. Also, if you look at the offenses, you would think Yankees-Red Sox, pretty even. But if you look into it in depth, the Yankees have been a lot classier than the Red Sox this season, just from a lot of metrics standpoint. From a projection standpoint, the Yankees are 10 points better from a weighted runs created plus standpoint. We get a better bullpen here. So there’s a lot of reasons to like the Yankees and I think that’s a good play, TC. I’m going to put it as part of a parlay and we’ll talk about this next game, the St. Louis-Atlanta game coming up, I guess.

TC Martin:

All right. So let’s go over to that game and you can put me down for the Yankees and Gerrit Cole today against Winkowski line at 165. Okay, base winner. Let’s talk about it. St. Louis and Atlanta is the next game on the board. You’ve got the Braves here, a 215 favorite here. The total in this game is nine, 120 towards the over. Spencer Strider going for Atlanta. Give us some thoughts, base winner and tell us why you like the Braves in this one.

Mark Borchard:

Well, basically my thought is that this Spencer Strider is a game changer. Not just for this particular game, but for the division race. His numbers, they’re pretty amazing actually. If you look at his base winner ERA, the only guy that beats him so far is Shane McClanahan. McClanahan is at a 1.88 base winner ERA and Strider’s at 2.31. And I know there’s a sample size issue, but man, his stuffed plus number is in the 99th percentile. This guy to me is the real deal. If you look at his last five starts. If you look at his expected ERA or actual. Let’s look at his XXX ERA. This is swinging strike percentage balls divided by pitches and launch angle. And you compute that into an ERA. He goes 1.44, 1.34. Had an off game against the giants at 5.67, but then 2.55 and 1.30. So I think this guy’s going to make a difference perhaps even in the NL East race.

Mark Borchard:

And then you look at component wise, we get a huge edge in the bullpen. I really like this Atlanta Braves bullpen. They’re number one, number two, depending on what chart you’re looking at and St. Louis is in the bottom third, no matter depending on what chart you’re looking at from a bullpen standpoint. And offensively, I like the Cardinals a lot better versus left-handed pitching. They’re a decent offense, but just a bit above league average, whereas the Braves I have rated in the top 10 in this particular split. So for all those reasons, I’ve got it priced at -293. So I think if you’re getting I guess it’s at -200 or about that, it’s a good value play on the Braves. So I put it in a parlay with those Yankees and we’ll get plus money on it.

TC Martin:

All right, Jeff.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I have no issue with the play. Liberatore is not good. He mentioned the Braves’ success against lefthanded pitching. Strider’s been terrific. I don’t know what he’s doing with this mustache he has, I’m not a big fan of that type of mustache. I don’t like mustaches at all.

Mark Borchard:

Maybe he’s trying to be like Dirty Deeds.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah.

TC Martin:

Does he have the Mike Carpenter mustache? Have you seen that? What is carpenter doing?

Jeff Nadu:

Whatever it is. I think certain guys can pull it off like my dad, my dad’s 60. He could pull it off. But these young kids, I think it makes them look stupid, to be honest. But yeah, I like the play. All they have to do is win. I actually thought about maybe a Braves first five, but Atlanta half a run at 150 just didn’t really seem that of interest to me. But I think they get the job done. The Cardinals have floundered recently. I’ve not been real interested in them.

TC Martin:

Cardinals having problems scoring runs. As we know, they scored a total of four runs and been shut out twice over the last four games. And Atlanta’s going for the sweep here on this one. So we’ll root base winner on with this one. He’s going with the two team parley with the two strong offenses. He’s going with the Yankees and the Braves in the parlay. Turn that around and get some plus money out of that one. All right, next up guys, Colorado and Arizona is our next game. Austin Gomber going for Colorado, Dallas Keuchel for the DBacks today. Game virtually a pick em, -111. Rockies are the favorite in this game on the road. Nine and a half is the total, 115 towards the under. Jeff, thoughts on Rocks-DBacks

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I’m I’m going to go right back to this. I played this exact pitching matchup on Saturday and it was 11-7 in Coors. It was an easy winner. Look, when Colorado faces a lefty, I’m very interested in it and over. And when they’re facing Dallas keuchel, I’m very interested. They destroyed Keuchel the other day. Now I know there is a change of venue here. That being said, I have no real reason to believe they’re not going to get to him again. He just has not been effective this year. He is not the guy, not even close to the guy we saw four or five years ago. He’s really beleaguered. He has a group behind him in the bullpen that isn’t good either. This Colorado team, guys, is hitting 295 against lefties, an 0PS at 810. They’re slugging 452. This has been a very good team against left-handed pitching. Throw in the fact Arizona’s been the team to back right now, offensively. They’ve been very good in general. They’re playing against Gomber here who also is not effective. Colorado has a bullpen that is one of the worst in baseball.

Jeff Nadu:

I know these teams aren’t going to jump out at you from a runs per game standpoint, but in the end, nine and a half just seems too low for me here. I’m going to play over nine and a half. You have two bad starters, two bad bullpens and two lineups right now, I like the splits against. I’m going over nine and half.

TC Martin:

Base winner, you’ve been on the Diamondbacks, I guess the last couple days or whatever pretty recently. Give me some thoughts here. What do you think of this? Can their bats get to Gomber today?

Mark Borchard:

I think there’s some good things they’re doing there. I’ve gotten in depth into their ISO power and their BBK. The guys they’re bringing up and it’s a young team. So I’m really excited about it, because it’d be nice to see Arizona be good, but this is what’s concerning about playing the over here and I’m with Jeff. I think Keuchel’s a mess. He’s a terrible pitcher. You could go xERA, XXX ERA, zERA, yERA, whatever you’re looking at or regular ERA. He’s not a good pitcher. Gomber, I’m a little bit more bullish on. I’ve got him just a tick below league average or tick from a bad standpoint, he’s worse than league average, but he’s right around league average. The offenses, the way they rate in the model are not high. I don’t like the relief pitching. I think if you play it, you go over.

Mark Borchard:

The one thing that’s concerning is the Arizona Park factor if you play the over and you wouldn’t think this because Arizona for years was this park that it was second to Colorado from a run production standpoint. But over the last three years, if you look at their home run park factory, you can find this at Baseball Savant, Statcast park factors. They are third worst in baseball. So from a home run suppression standpoint, they have the third lowest park factor. It goes Detroit, Oakland and then Arizona. And so I think that’s really surprising. And so you got to take into account the fact that this park hasn’t really played the way it had in the past. And I don’t know why they continue to keep the humidor where it is. It’d be nice to see this park play like at least in my opinion, where it was before, but that’s the only concern.

Mark Borchard:

And there’s one other thing too, Colorado doesn’t hit very good on the road. So that’s a concern playing the over. Having said that, I think that if somebody said you got to play the total on this game, I would play the over nine and a half here, TC.

TC Martin:

Well, regarding the park factor you’re talking about, that’s 100% correlated to the humidor, right?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah.

TC Martin:

This is what everyone’s talking about when they go into that, whether you’re opposing managers, broadcasters, they’re all talking about it. And it’s a shame because like you said, it was a great park to go watch a game in where balls would be flying out. And again, I’d like to see the roof open more times than not at that place, but it’s that and or it’s the food options there. It’s one of the two things, base winner. I don’t know what it is, but when I’ve been there, I’ve liked the food options. I don’t know if it’s changed in recent years, but they-

Mark Borchard:

They have a diverse menu. So you could get a lot of different things. And I love the nachos there. The nachos are great. I know Jeff doesn’t like nachos, but I’m a huge fan.

Jeff Nadu:

Nah, I wouldn’t say I’m a huge fan. That being said as far as just to say one other thing. This is a good time to back Arizona’s offense. It seems like some of their home games recently have been a little inflated with how good their offense has been. I know Colorado’s not a good road team offensively, but I’m hoping against a bad lefty and I mean a bad lefty. Is Keuchel the worst lefty pitcher in baseball? He might be right now. He’s awful. Let’s hope he just gets destroyed here. You guys look at in away games this year? Well, he’s not away here, but in away games, opponents are hitting 380 off Dallas Keuchel on away games. That’s nuts. 380. Luckily he’s at home, but he’s still bad.

Mark Borchard:

It feels like an away game though too, because it’s like he hasn’t really made Arizona his home. He probably won’t based on his underlying metrics, but I guess we’ll find out, Jeff. I hope you hit it but I don’t know. It strikes a bad nerve. This humidor thing strikes a bad nerve because I think they can do it a lot better and they don’t seem to get out in front of it. Major League Baseball seems to be behind it.

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t need home runs, just drive the base runners in that we have. They’re going to be all out of them. So let’s hope I’m right here. We’ll see. I hit it the other night, it would just be a flip for me anyway. So we’ll see.

TC Martin:

Here we go. All right. Put Jeff down in the over in this game, the game in Arizona. Keuchel-Gomber going at it. Jeff’s got the over nine and a half runs in the contest between Colorado and Arizona. All right finally, Cubs and the Dodgers. Another big line in this game. Cubs have been playing a little bit better baseball as of late. Mark Leiter Jr. going for the Cubs today and Tony Gonsolin, still undefeated Tony Gonsolin -270 on the Dodger side, total eight and a half, 120 towards the under. Some night baseball at Chavez Ravine. Cubs and Dodgers, this used to be a great matchup when the Cubs would make their one time trip a year to Los Angeles. But man, I’m sure there’s still going to be plenty of Cubs fans that will follow this team, but just a different feel this year as bad as the Cubs have been. Very young team, not a lot of recognizable names, but the Cubs have been playing better lately and we saw them get another victory against the Brewers over the last couple days. Base winner, some quick thoughts on this game, Cubbies and the Dodgers.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, it’s an interesting game to me, TC. I’ve got it priced at minus 250, which is right about where the market is. But this Gonsolin, if you look at his wins/losses, they’re pretty good. He hasn’t lost a game, right? But if you look, I don’t think that the ERA is even close to the type of pitcher that he is. He’s at a 1.54 era, his base winner ERA, 3.67. And he’s the luckiest pitcher in baseball of that luck chart that we use, batting average of balls in play left on base percentage and home runs to fly balls. This guy’s the luckiest pitcher in baseball. I’d like to play against him, but just the way that it’s an interesting price too, because they were -300 or little bit lower than -300 last night. Are the Cubs that much better than Colorado? But well, it’s priced to where it is. If I had to play it, I’d play the Cubs and just go against Gonsolin because I think that his luck’s bound to run out at some point.

TC Martin:

Right. Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. So I’m going to add play here and this has been something that I’ve been betting on a few different times here, first five, minus a half of Gonsolin. I think he’s only lost three times in 15 starts in the first five. I watched him against San Diego. I’ve watched him several times, this guy and I know Mark, maybe he’s overachieved a bit, but he has been elite. He was very good last time out against the Padres. What do we know about Chicago? What did we just see yesterday? Just major issues with strikeouts. They can’t seem to get on base. They strike out way too much. You’re looking at a guy in Gonsolin who had eight strikeouts in his last start.

Jeff Nadu:

We all know that Dodgers lineup up can hit. They should be able to get to Mark Leiter who was actually here in Philadelphia, drafted about a Phillies several years ago. Was not effective here, was not effective really in Toronto and really isn’t effective in Chicago. All I need is the lead after five and I know I’m laying a bit of a price here. I’m willing to do it though. Gonsolin has just been elite in the first five. They give him run support. I actually had another first five on Sunday with Kershaw against the Padres as well. So I’m going to keep backing him first five minus a halves with them. Just where I want to be with them.

TC Martin:

All right. Are you going to give us the fist pump and the point. You’re adding a play here?

Jeff Nadu:

I’m adding, let’s rock. Gonsolin and the Dodgers, first five minus a half. It’s been a good money maker. Let’s get it today.

Mark Borchard:

I want to see him drink because Matt’s like, he drinks coffee and gives out the play at the same time. I want to see him do that. I haven’t seen that mid major Matt did.

Jeff Nadu:

Well, I used to do it, but I actually cut. I used to drink two or three cups of coffee a day, but I cut it down to just one. I was finding myself, it just wasn’t working for me and with your diet and the way you consume things. Now you got to make sure you look into stuff that’s not working. And I cut down on the coffee. I only drink one now and I drink it earlier in the day. So no more coffee plays, but the fist pump is enough.

Mark Borchard:

Is there truth to that though? Have you given out plays while drinking a cup of coffee?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. So when we had the basketball show.

Mark Borchard:

That’s impressive.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. If I would add something, there was always for whatever reason, I would be drinking a sip as I’m saying it. And who was it? TJ rivers started making it a point of notice.

TC Martin:

There it is.

Mark Borchard:

That’s so awesome, dude. I want you to do it. Next time you add a play, just fake it.

Jeff Nadu:

If I had a mug here, I would do it but I don’t.

Mark Borchard:

Put a cup of water in a mug.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. If I had it, I would.

TC Martin:

I would say truth to the rumor that the reason why Jeff gave up coffee, because those late night strolls to the barbershop and the bars, he was falling asleep and just wasn’t making him that attractive to the ladies.

Jeff Nadu:

No. The reason I stopped drinking coffee, honesty, I was drinking at 12, 1:000 and for whatever reason, I did a study that when I drank coffee twice and one of them was later in the day, I found myself struggling a bit to go to sleep at night. So I just cut it out. And now knock on wood, I’m good.

TC Martin:

That’s good.

Jeff Nadu:

You got to look into what’s not working sometimes.

TC Martin:

There you go. All right. No play for us with the Cubs and the Dodgers tonight. Q&A time, let’s hit the questions. Feel free to hit us on any games we didn’t cover. If you want some more information on the games that we did hit on and we’ll answer your questions as best we can here in the chat room here. Mile High says, “Can we trust Williams on the Mets today? Or Lyles on the Orioles today?” Either one of those guys, base winner?

Mark Borchard:

Gosh, I don’t know. I’ve got the Angels priced at -153. So that would say that the Angels is probably the play there. Both those games, I would stay away from if it were me.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Silseth is back for the Angels in this game against the Orioles today. I wanted to make a play on the Mets today, but I still can’t pull the trigger on Trevor Williams. I don’t know, Jeff any thoughts?

Jeff Nadu:

He’s a guy, it’s fade city for me. He walks too many people. Just isn’t very good. He’s the weak link for the Mets and the Mets have a similar problem to the Phillies with the Marlins. They struggle with them. They’re not very good against left-handed pitching. Definitely not like they are against right-handed pitching. The Marlins have these kids that are just solid, Lopez, we all know about Alcántara. Even this kid, Castano. He hasn’t pitched a ton, but he’s been decent. So I don’t like this spot for the Mets. I’d actually lean Miami here if I had to play it, I don’t like Williams at all.

TC Martin:

One game we didn’t touch on guys, and that is the Padres and the Giants. And I looked at this game and I wanted it. It’s Musgrove going for the Padres today. And I wanted to really make a play on the Padres and Musgrove today. And I’ve mentioned before regarding the Giants, their pitcher that is going today, Logan Webb, that something just doesn’t seem right with this guy. But I couldn’t pull the trigger based on what we had talked about before, that Padre offense and the Giants really had been bad. I don’t know how they erupted for those runs yesterday against the Diamondbacks but it got me off the game. I don’t know if either one of you guys got a thought on the Padres and the giants today. Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

I think that’s the thing. I made it a point to talk about. I had Musgrove last time out and I sat there and for the first time, I actually sat there and watched it. It was a Thursday night. I enjoyed it quite honestly. I thought the Fox coverage was very good. Musgrove was terrific. It’s just when he faced Justin Turner, he just couldn’t get him out. I think Justin Turner had two home runs in the game. That was the difference. He had 10 strikeouts though, he was really good. Musgrove is very good. He’s a top three, four guy in the NL, in my opinion.

Jeff Nadu:

The problem is, as you talked about this lineup is not good enough. Machado has not seemed to find his groove. They’re without Tatís. There’s just too many outs in this lineup and I have a hard time with it. That said, I do like them here today. Logan Webb is okay, but that bullpen is not good for the San Francisco Giants. You talked about the lineup as well. That’s not very good. I’d actually take San Diego’s lineup over San Francisco. Maybe a little backing of Musgrove here. I don’t hate it.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Especially coming off the way he pitched like you said, I love getting guys like that, that pitch well enough to win. As I like to say, the hard luck loser routine for me. I may be on Musgrove a little bit later today, a little more handicapping on this later. But again, Webb, something’s wrong with him. And again, I do like the Padres but Kansas has got to get going.

Jeff Nadu:

Look at his last start TC, against San Francisco. Seven innings, gave up four hits. Didn’t give up a run.

TC Martin:

Exactly, exactly. I may be involved in this today. Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. He’s not pitched well, though, last two games. 13 innings, he’s given up nine runs and we worried, was this going to be a carryover from that start against the Phillies? But I do think I’m a little hard on Musgrove because Mark’s solid, he was terrific in that game. Just Turner just got to him twice.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Base winner?

Mark Borchard:

As far as this game goes, I’ve got it priced at -149. And it looked it opened at -130. So I thought about playing Musgrove. I don’t like it that he’s been a lucky pitcher, 98 percentile from a luck standpoint. Stuff plus, both of these guys are equal. Logan Webb, 60 percentile, Musgrove 66 percentile. I couldn’t pull the trigger. If I did, I probably would’ve played the Padres. It almost was a play yesterday, but I don’t like that Musgrove’s been lucky. And I don’t like that the pitching plus is pretty equal here. So I would pass on this game if it were me.

TC Martin:

Okay. Mario wants to make a trend here. We talked about it the last couple days about a home run prop here. Any thoughts about a home run prop here today? Base winner? Who might be your guy today? Or guys.

Mark Borchard:

Maybe take some Pirates. I’m trying to think. Maybe a Ke’Bryan Hayes or Bryan Reynolds. I would go with him versus Minor. That Cincinnati park. And I think if you play a home run, if you’re looking at somebody to home run, I think you start there.

TC Martin:

Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I’m looking at maybe Freddie Freeman. You look at his last 15 games, I think he’s four home runs and 10 RBIs. Does have a lot of strike outs. For Freddie Freeman, I’m hoping maybe he can connect on one, but again, this is not a market I really bet much. I’d have to zero in on just guys that are giving up a lot of home runs. I’ll tell you a game we didn’t talk about that I wanted to play and the number just didn’t make a lot of sense to me. This Adon guy for the Nationals is a disaster. He’s awful. I don’t know why he keeps being thrown out there. You look at his last three starts, he’s giving up three home runs. Schwarber right now is on another planet. So maybe just say, I’m going to play Schwarber. He’s been wildly effective recently. He’s on a wild level.

Mark Borchard:

Did you guys play this yesterday and hit it? Is that why we’re asking again?

Jeff Nadu:

Nah, this guy just-

TC Martin:

I don’t think so, no.

Jeff Nadu:

This guy’s asked us [inaudible].

Mark Borchard:

It’s a good question. Definitely, I think it’s good discussion. I think that’s a good point, Jeff, to go with Schwarber. I

Jeff Nadu:

He’s got four home runs the last two games against this team. I think you got to look at that.

Mark Borchard:

My guy’s Bryan Reynolds. So why don’t you take Schwarber, I’ll take Reynolds and we’ll see if one of those guys hits a home run.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m not playing this, but if this individual’s asking, I’ll take Schwarber.

TC Martin:

If I had to take someone guys, it would be one of the Astros today. That’d be one of them.

Jeff Nadu:

Oh, what a surprise.

Mark Borchard:

Oh, man.

Jeff Nadu:

What a surprise.

TC Martin:

It would not surprise me if Altuve launches the first pitch of the game into the Crawford boxes.

Jeff Nadu:

How about this? Let’s do-

TC Martin:

Can I get a witness there, Jeff? Or maybe Alex Bregman today.

Jeff Nadu:

Let’s go your Don Alvarez to home run and Schwarber to home run.

TC Martin:

Could see Alvarez. Again, the lefty against Bubic. That’s why I’m thinking more Altuve today.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, there you go. Pick one.

TC Martin:

I can see it. All right. Best MLB betting guys. Let’s get to it and recap what we like today in Major League Baseball. All right, Jeff’s going to go with the over in the nine and a half of the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks game. Jeff also added a play. What was that, Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

I’m going to go with the Dodgers first five minus a half with Gonsolin against Leiter.

TC Martin:

Okay. So put that one down.

Jeff Nadu:

Two late night games for me.

TC Martin:

All right. I’m going with the Yankees 165 today. Thinking they get all over Boston today. Gerrit backing a superb outing that I’m hoping for, for the Yankees today with Cole on the hill. Base winner is going with the Kansas City Royals plus a run and a half against the Astros. Getting plus money there, +145. So base winner’s rooting for a Kansas City outright win or a one run game in that one. That’ll get him home there. Then he’s going with the parlay, the Yankees and the Braves. Take the two favorites, make it into one play, +135 or so on that parlay. So there you go.

TC Martin:

All right guys, good stuff today. Appreciate everyone for joining us. Remember to like and subscribe to the show here. The MLB Show. We’re here Monday through Friday, 12:00 noon Eastern Time here on BetUS TV presented by America’s favorite sportsbook, BetUS. Make sure that you follow us individually on Twitter and @BetUSTV right here on Twitter as well too. We’ll be back at it again tomorrow and we’ll take a look at the weekend board as well, but good luck to everybody and appreciate everybody for joining us. For Jeff Nadu, the base winner, TC Martin saying so long. Have yourself a good day. We’ll catch you right back here tomorrow on the MLB Show on BetUS TV.