TC Martin:
And welcome aboard, wherever you may be. Here on BetUS TV, this is the MLB Show. Thanks for joining us on this Thursday edition as we handicap Major League Baseball show here today. TC Martin, live here from Las Vegas, and I have my two handicappers today. The BaseWinner, Mark Borchard, joins us from Scottsdale, Arizona. And a very special guest joining us here today, as well as tomorrow, a guy that I’ve known for many, many years, going back, probably… I don’t want to embarrass either one of us here, especially him… probably 30 years. Seriously, one of the most renowned handicappers here in Las Vegas. He’s been doing this professionally for such a long time, a regular guest on my show and a long time friend. We’re talking about the one and only Scott Spreitzer. Scott, thanks for joining us here today.
Scott Spreitzer:
Great to be with both of you guys. I’m a big fan of BaseWinner, of Mark. And obviously, TC, I’m not a fan of yours at all, but I came on anyway. For those who are watching, there used to be a show called The Stardust Line in the ’90s, and TC and I co-hosted plenty of Stardust Line shows back in the day. And yeah, it’s been a lot of years that we’ve known each other, but we’ve done a lot of shows together. In fact, I’m a little disappointed there’s no Brothers Johnson music playing, there’s no Red Hot Chili Peppers playing. I mean, come on, TC.
TC Martin:
You got to wait for that this afternoon, and Scott’ll be joining me on my show later today… There’s a free plug… from 2:00 to 4:00 PM Pacific Time, tcmartinshow.com, where we’ll have some Red Hot Chili Peppers, some Brothers Johnson, some Parliament-Funkadelic. And Mark Borchard can relate to that. He’s a little bit of a funkster guy as well, too. But I don’t control the music here, Scott, that’s it. Wait, Fabian, we need some intro music. That’s exactly what we need. You and Alejandro, let’s get on that.
Mark Borchard:
You would like some Parliament, TC? I’m down with that. I like that group.
TC Martin:
See, there you go. BaseWinner, that’s my guy.
Mark Borchard:
[inaudible].
TC Martin:
Let me ask you, I’m going to throw this out here today, to both of you guys. Okay? If you each had to have your own walkup song, what would that be? BaseWinner, go.
Mark Borchard:
Oh, gosh. You’ve put me on the spot. How about the one by Genesis, I Got a Line on You? I like that one.
TC Martin:
Okay. I Got a Line on You. I see where you’re going with that. Really not Parliament-Funkadelic-ish. But you want to go Genesis, a little Phil Collins, I get that. Scott, you’re up.
Scott Spreitzer:
It’s funny because it’s not my genre of music, but if we’re talking baseball, doesn’t it have to be Put Me in Coach, or whatever the title of that song is by Fogerty?
TC Martin:
Oh, geez. Here we go. Here we go.
Scott Spreitzer:
Maybe [inaudible]-
TC Martin:
A little John Fogerty action, huh?
Scott Spreitzer:
… I don’t know. No, if it’s just a walkup song, give me Flashlight or-
TC Martin:
There it is.
Mark Borchard:
There we go.
Scott Spreitzer:
… Get the Funk Out Ma Face… And that’s F-U-N-K, for those of you who have your mind somewhere else today… by the Brothers Johnson. But yeah, I mean, one of those, I would guess.
TC Martin:
That’s outstanding. Good stuff, guys. All right. Remember, like and subscribe to the show and the channel here. Click that bell, that way you’ll get the notifications when we go live. We’re here Monday through Friday, 12:00 noon Eastern Time, right here on BetUS TV. It is the MLB Show, presented by America’s favorite sportsbook , BetUS.
TC Martin:
All right, guys, before we get into today’s games… We have a limited scope here because we’re going to stay away from those early morning games that are going at 9:30 Pacific, 12:30 Eastern. Want to give you a little shelf life here. So we’re going to handicap about three games here today. But before we get into that, and our best MLB bets , since this is the very first time that Scott has joined us here, Scott, I’d like you to talk about how you handicap baseball. I know you’ve been doing it a long time, had a lot of success and, as we say, styles make fights, and sometimes we have some fights on this show. We all have different styles of handicapping. Mark is our sabermetrics guru, straight from Moneyball, even though he never saw the movie, Scott, don’t ask me why. But anyway, he is our Billy Beane, but-
Mark Borchard:
I’ve seen it, but I can’t remember all 12 characters in the plot line. TC can remember all 12 characters, both their real names and their character names. I’m very impressed, TC.
TC Martin:
Thank you very much, Mark. I love you, man. Scott, so talk about your handicapping philosophy when it comes to baseball.
Scott Spreitzer:
Yeah. It’s changed over the years a little bit because when sabermetrics were introduced, you started picking up a few things here and there. It’s gone from the traditional stats, like ERA, WHIP, batting average, and things like that, into wOBA, Weighted Runs Created Plus, things of that nature. Which, if I’m looking at the team’s offense, I like to look at things like wOBA because it does differentiate. I mean, wOBA basically is a version of on-base percentage that accounts for how guys got on base, which I think is pretty important, at least to me it is, when it comes to handicapping. And none of us all handicap the same, we just all look to get to that same destination. So, weighted on-base average, Weighted Runs Created Plus, that means a lot to me on the opposite end of things.
Scott Spreitzer:
And then, I’ve really gotten into barrel rates over the last couple of years, hard-hit percentage when it comes to pitchers. And those are, basically, four or five of, to me, what helps me, my most important metrics that I’ve added to the recipe over the last decade or so. And I also, because of this ghost runner on second… Which, we could probably have a three-hour show and bore people to death. In extra innings, I absolutely despise the ghost runner on second. And I understand why guys like it, they don’t want to see 15, 16-inning games. But because of that, I’ve totally switched how I look to play unders. Not to mention the fact that pitchers are gone in the fifth inning most of the time now, starting pitchers. But I play first fives almost exclusively when it comes to unders. I don’t want to get caught up in an extra-inning game that’s starting guys at second. I just don’t want to do that. So that’s helped me be successful when it comes to unders.
Scott Spreitzer:
When it comes to an over, most of the time I’ll play full game because you might get that ghost runner on second who comes in for you every once in a while. It’s based on starters. But it’s just been a thing of adding to those traditional numbers, 1995, when we were young kids, TC, compared to now. And you find out ERA doesn’t mean so much. FIP, F-I-P, FIPX, all that stuff has come into the game of handicapping in the last decade. And I’ve taken a little bit of each, and it’s helped me stay on top of Major League Baseball. By on top, I don’t mean better than the other handicapper. I’m just saying, on top of my game to… If I do go through a little bit of a tough slide, it’s going to bounce back, and you don’t get too deep into a hole, like maybe you did 20 years ago with all those traditional numbers, and that was all you had.
TC Martin:
Right. And I think it’s fair to say too, Scott, like you said, we’ve all adapted over time and utilizing the sabermetrics. And Mark obviously does a great job of that. But you’re like me, where you kind of handicap the eye test, as well as you’ll look at all that stuff as well, too. And I think that’s what’s really cool with that too. And BaseWinner, he is our sabermetric guru. Be careful every time you say barrel rate, okay, because he gets a little excited. He’s not at a picnic or whatever. I mean, he’s taking his bat and he’s actually going through this with his computer at picnics, locally, in every park in Scottsdale.
Mark Borchard:
No, I love the barrel rate. It’s such a fun stat because it didn’t exist even six years ago. So the evolution of the advanced metrics on a pitch-by-pitch basis and being able to score hit quality, which they didn’t do. I think it started in 2016. And I remember capping in 2012, 2013 and saying, “Hey, this would be really neat when this comes around.” And now that it’s here, I think that if you use it correctly, it’s an incredible way to see whether certain stats are real or not. And I love the barrel rate. That’s one of my favorite hard-hit metric stats, Scott.
Scott Spreitzer:
No, I like hearing that. And I also think what TC said about the eye test, don’t be afraid of betting on or against streaks, winning or losing streaks. My gosh, this year it’s been incredible. I got a bunch of wins going against Sensi, almost blindly. I never bet anything blindly, but almost blindly when they started 3 and 22. Got about six wins in seven games out of Philly when they were winning games left and right after they first fired Joe Girardi. So I still think you take some of those things that you did when you were young. And by you, I mean me and TC. I don’t know about you, Mark. You look like a pretty in-shape dude, but-
Mark Borchard:
I’m getting up there, but I’m old enough to remember listening to The Stardust Line, so… Yeah, yeah.
Scott Spreitzer:
Oh, right. There we go. I’m glad to hear it.
Mark Borchard:
And I loved it. And I love your work too. I just wanted to say that before the show ended, that I’m a huge fan, was a huge fan of that show. I thought that was…. I remember listening to The Stardust Line. I would drive from Vegas to Phoenix, and it would cut in and out. And it just brings back some good memories of listening to that show and kind of getting it and kind of going, “What did they say about this game? What did they say about this game?” as it’s fading in and out. So it brings back good memories, Scott and TC.
Scott Spreitzer:
I’m glad to hear that we’re all into our 30s now, right?
TC Martin:
Exactly. Right?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. Yeah. Oh, sure.
Scott Spreitzer:
[inaudible] something, Mark.
TC Martin:
We’re all in that bracket, okay, that discounted movie ticket bracket maybe-
Scott Spreitzer:
There we go.
TC Martin:
… or something like that, right? But-
Scott Spreitzer:
[inaudible]. I got to tell Mark really quick if I can, TC, and the folks watching, because they might not know this, maybe Mark does but-
TC Martin:
I kind of know what’s coming, but fire away. Go ahead, man.
Scott Spreitzer:
Now, TC was a wrestling promoter in the ’90s, did a bang-up job. And also, he was ahead of his time. All right? Dana White could learn a thing or two about a thing or two about female fighters. And I just want to say that, this might be a subject for a different time and place, but Mr. Martin over here used to jump in the ring in the Las Vegas casinos, promoting a female fighter from Oslo, who I’ll never forget. And I just wanted to say, hats off because the guy would wear a top hat with these Elton John wild glasses with big rims on them like this, and usually had a cane with him, the black and white cane with the white tips that he’d start pointing at people in the crowd.
TC Martin:
[inaudible].
Scott Spreitzer:
It was an interesting sight. TC’s come a long way.
Mark Borchard:
Well, I scoured the internet looking for… He says there was a picture of him on the internet with a mullet, and I couldn’t find it. So I think TC’s got to tweet that out one of these days.
TC Martin:
There’s plenty of video of that. So yeah, not only wrestling, but Scott will remember too, I would show up that way at the Stardust on Friday or Saturday nights during The Stardust Line as well, too, when I would do my show, show up in the doctor smocks and the gear, and even sometimes, much to Scott’s approval, I’d show up with a couple nurses as well, too.
Mark Borchard:
Nothing wrong with that. Good for you, TC.
TC Martin:
Yeah, great times. And we’ve be doing this a long time and keeping it alive here in Las Vegas. But, Scott, really appreciate you joining us here today. And like I said, Scott and I, we’ve been connected at the hip for a long time, and I know that viewers are really going to enjoy his handicapping here in the next couple days. So appreciate that, guys.
TC Martin:
All right. Let’s go to the record board and get caught up on the latest here from last night. BaseWinner had a couple winners last night. He went 2-0. I ended up going 1-1. And there are the records there, yours truly, up 20 games over the 500 mark. BaseWinner up five, very nicely done. And again, 2 and 0 yesterday. And of course, BaseWinner, we cannot have a show if we do not talk about Paul Blackburn. Curious to get Scott’s take on this. But yes, Blackburn, yesterday, gets blasted as the BaseWinner had projected. As you know, in the beginning, I was saying Blackburn is one of the A’s best pitchers, but slowly but surely, people have caught up with him. The A’s offense has been putrid, as we well know. Blackburn, yesterday, his worst outing of the year, four innings, seven runs, nine hits. The A’s don’t show up in Seattle, blast of 9-0. So congratulations on that yesterday, Mark.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. I can’t lie. It feels really good to get a win against betting against Paul Blackburn because Scott mentioned earlier in the show that sometimes, as a handicapper, you check the box scores the next day, and now you can check it pretty much after the game’s over. But you look at some of this guy’s outings, and I’m thinking about the Seattle game where he walked five and only struck out two. Yet, I still lost that game. And I said, “I still think I should get that back as a win.” But betting against him, and with all the sabermetric data backing your play, and then have him get super, super lucky, and to have him get bombed last night, it was vindicating, TC. It really felt good.
Mark Borchard:
And what was funny about that game is, he stranded two guys, second and third in the first inning, and bases loaded in the third. And I said, “Oh, here we go again.” They finally got to him, hit two home runs. They had only given up two or three home runs all year, and they hit two home runs in five innings last night. So that shows you some of the regression stats that he was bound to get, and they all came to fruition last night. So that was super fun, TC.
TC Martin:
Yeah, as I mentioned to you, Scott, is that the BaseWinner’s now added another category to his long spreadsheet and has the luck column now, as saying that Paul Blackburn was probably the luckiest pitcher alive.
Scott Spreitzer:
Yeah. [inaudible].
Mark Borchard:
He was definitely up there, that’s for sure.
Scott Spreitzer:
I agree. And when you’re pitching for a team that has already mailed in the season, and they basically did second week of the season, it’s hard, I think, to keep up that energy too. So it’s a combination of, his deeper metrics were telling us that it was likely that he was going to get beat up a little bit soon, and then when you don’t have that extra energy coming out on the field, man. You’re dead last, you’re not going anywhere. It’s only mid-June or whatever, or third week of June. It’s got to be hard to muster up that energy night in, night out, even if you’re only out there once every four or five days, like a starting pitcher.
Scott Spreitzer:
I’ll tell you what, I don’t know if… Mark, obviously, we haven’t talked about this, but you really got to watch pitchers, man. I think I talked about this on your radio show, TC Martin, a couple of weeks ago. You watch a guy like Detmers, for the Angels, who comes out and throws a no-no, and he had one or two strikeouts the entire game. You look at his BABIP and you’re like, “This guy was so fortunate.” I mean, maybe he should’ve won the game, but to go a full nine innings and not allow a hit, you’re talking, what, 25 or 26 out of 27 outs were after the ball made contact with the bat.
Scott Spreitzer:
And so you go against him the next time out, and you’re probably going to win the next time. If you don’t, I’m not saying to start doubling up your bets when you go against him each time, but maybe you come out again and play against him again if he doesn’t lose that first time out. But I did go against him. And the bottom line is, is that you got to watch these pitchers. And, boy, those traditional stats, the one that jumps out at you in the old newspaper columns, they can really lie to you if you’re not really digging into this stuff.
Mark Borchard:
Exactly. Remember the last three games in the USA Today. I remember handicapping games way back when with those, and I think we all do. So, yeah. But that’s what’s so good about… You can take, I guess, a little bit of solace. And it’s interesting, Scott, that you brought up that no-hit game with Detmers because all three of us, Jeff, TC, and I were on the raise that night. So it makes me feel a little bit better that, hey, we weren’t as bad as we looked that night because there was a lot of balls put into play that just went into gloves. He had the magic magnet working there, or he was directing with the magic magnet from the pitching mound. I like to joke about that.
TC Martin:
Well, the thing about it is, Scott, you’re not going to have an opportunity to bet against Detmers anymore, unless you’re betting Minor League stuff because he got demoted yesterday. Detmers, just six starts after that crazy no-hitter, or that lucky no-hitter, he’s back in the minors. And again, we’ve talked about him a lot the last couple weeks about how he’s almost a go-against despite that. And he even got a little bit of value for those few starts after that because, I guess, bookmakers are saying, “Oh, well, that’s Reid Detmers. He had a no-no. He’s the youngest Angel in franchise history to have a…” No, not so fast. So in the minors now. How crazy is that? Could be the quickest that a guy got sent down to the minors after throwing a no-no, six starts later. But-
Scott Spreitzer:
A microcosm of that team’s, that organization’s, season, isn’t it? I mean, they were 24 and 13, and now they are probably not going to make the postseason again. Hey, listen, as a fan… You know me, I’m from the Midwest. I was a Cardinals fan growing up. I’ve been out here for many, many years, more than half my life now in Las Vegas. I decided many years ago, before they won the World Series, but when they hired Scioscia, to be a Halos fan. That was kind of my team. But again, it’s the same old, same old with that team. They have no bullpen, very little pitching outside of maybe Thor a little bit, even though he’s not what he used to be. Ohtani, of course, excellent. But it’s the same old, same old with that organization, and it’s rough being a Halos fan. Thank God for betting because then I don’t have to be a fan of theirs every night, you know?
TC Martin:
Right. All right, guys. Let’s look at today’s action. Like I said, limited card here today, travel day for a lot of the teams. One very meaningful series with the Astros traveling to the Yankees for four games. Probably a little playoff preview for that, so we’ll get into that here coming up. But let’s start off here today with Cleveland taking on Minnesota, the Guardians. It still is taking me time to say that, right? But the Guardians on the road, at Minnesota. The line 130, in favor of the Twins. The total in this game, nine and a half, slightly shaded towards the over in this one at -120. Zach Plesac going for Cleveland. Dean Smeltzer for the Twins. BaseWinner, kick us off here today. Who do you like and why?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. I’m going to go with the Guardians again. And I have to pause every time I say that because I’ve been saying Indians for so long. But I’m going to go… I haven’t priced it. Right about even. I have the Guardian’s favored -100.4, to be precise, but you can still get them at some plus money right now. And I think that with Smeltzer, if you take the last four letters of his last name out, that’s what his sabermetrics will look like… or actually, I guess, smell like. But anyway, I’ve got him in the model at 123, meaning he’s 23% worse than the average pitcher. It puts him 141st out of 150 pitchers. And Cleveland and Plesac, I have as league average. So if you look… And I like to balance the model out with the athletic pitching plus numbers.
Mark Borchard:
And if you look at Zach Plesac, he’s a 50 percentile in that athletic pitching plus number. Devin Smeltzer is 9%. So I think that jives with the play there. And I like Cleveland. If you looked at their played approach last night, I think it was really good. They tied the game up at 10 to 10. And they had runners at second and third base. But they had a couple professional at-bats, got the guy over to third… Check that. There was a guy on second base that was tied up, got the guy over to third, and then a sac fly brought him home. And that’s the kind of team that you want on your side because I can’t tell you… I don’t know, Scott, if this has happened to you a lot over the years, but when they stranded that guy at third base with one out or less, it’s one of the most frustrating things in handicapping. And one of the things I do like about Cleveland too, is their plate discipline numbers. This is BB/K. This is just walks divided by strikeouts. And Cleveland is sixth in baseball, offensively, in that department.
Mark Borchard:
And one other thing before I conclude here. I wanted to talk about this Cleveland bullpen, which I think is very underrated in the market. I’ve got them second over the last 30 days. And this just takes a look at swinging strike percentage and BB/K. I like to call it my triple X metric. But you can extrapolate swinging strike percentage or two expected strikeout percentage. You could extrapolate balls divided by pitches to expected walk percentage. And then you can score every pitch that this bullpen pitches. If you look at them overall, they are third in baseball. So I think that there’s a lot of good things and good reasons to go with Cleveland here. So I’ll take them as a slight dog today versus the Twins, TC.
TC Martin:
All right. And Cleveland coming back from that victory last night, four runs in the ninth. And I think Minnesota jumped out to an early lead. Cleveland came back, Minnesota took the lead. They needed three outs, couldn’t get it from their bullpen. BaseWinner got a victory there last night in that, what, 11 to 10 marathon last night in Minnesota. Scott, thoughts on Plesac and Smeltzer?
Scott Spreitzer:
Yeah. Last night, when the games went final, I wasn’t really paying close attention, to that game. I had four games last night, four plays in baseball, and it wasn’t one of them. So I was really in tune with the other games. But after it was final and I saw what happened, how it ended all that kind of stuff, and I saw right away that, yes, Byron Buxton sat again. And the thing was, is that my first thought was, before I started jumping into the pitchers and all that, is… And I’m looking at Minnesota, I’m thinking, “Okay, I’m going to give them a look because I do like decent teams…” And they’re decent. They’re not great, but they’re decent… “that are trying to stave off the home sweep,” which is what they’re trying to do today.
Scott Spreitzer:
And then I looked at it and I saw, okay, yeah, Buxton didn’t play. I mean, the guy is obviously a walking mash, very fragile, and he’s got the sore knee. So I said, “Well, I can’t chance it.” Although the limits sometimes are lower overnight in all the books that we all mess with, the bottom line is, is that I do like to get some action overnight and take advantage. And about 80, 85% of the time, you can beat the closing line if you’ve been doing this as long as all three of us have, if you bet those overnight. And it wasn’t going to be any kind of crazy bet anyway, but it might be a small play, is what I was thinking. I go into it, I’m saying, “All right, Buxton didn’t play. If he played, his manager said he might’ve caught that ball in the ninth inning. That could’ve made a difference. Whatever.” But I couldn’t take the chance.
Scott Spreitzer:
And then I started jumping into the pitchers anyway, and Plesac 3 to 2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He is got 44 or 45 strikeouts, only 15 walks. Plesac’s not even at 2 to 1 with his K-to-walk ratio. That scares me if you’re going to back a guy who’s that low. And the only concern that I had, because right now, Cleveland is obviously seeing the ball a lot better at the plate than the Twins over, let’s say, the last 10 games. They’re hitting about 20 points higher. And their ERA, team ERA, is much better than Minnesota in the last nine or 10 games. The only thing that worried me a little bit is Plesac’s hard-hit rate, which was about 44, 45%, so far. That was the only thing. I stayed away from the game, but I think it’s either side with Mark or stay away from it, with the way these two teams are performing right now with Buxton out of the lineup.
TC Martin:
And checking the lineup, Buxton is not in the lineup and not in the leadoff spot at all. Nick Gordon will bat ninth and play centerfield for Minnesota. So another go-against. And it’s funny you bring that up, Scott, because when I was handicapping that game yesterday, wasn’t sure if he was going to play, and he makes a big difference.
Scott Spreitzer:
Absolutely.
TC Martin:
Yeah, absolutely. So we’re going to lock BaseWinner into this game here, and he’s going to take a shot with Cleveland. You know how much I wanted to say the tribe. I still like saying the tribe, and I guess… Is that bad? I mean, [inaudible].
Mark Borchard:
It was such a good nickname.
Scott Spreitzer:
Yeah.
TC Martin:
It’s a cool nickname, isn’t it? The tribe?
Mark Borchard:
It’s such a good nickname. Yeah, I-
TC Martin:
I like the old the hats. I mean, I still like that old Cleveland Indians logo on the hat. I mean, come on.
Mark Borchard:
I just hope they never redo Major League for politically correctness standpoint. I mean-
TC Martin:
Major League 4 is coming to a theater near you soon, Mark.
Mark Borchard:
They’ll be like, “Yeah. We have to redo the original Major League because it’s not PC enough.” But no, never do that. That was one of the best movies of all time.
TC Martin:
+120 for Cleveland today for the BaseWinner. Good luck on that pick, my man. All right. Next up, let’s take a look at the Cardinals and the Brew Crew here today, Dakota Hudson against Jason Alexander. The Brewers, a slight favor in this one. This game, virtually, I pick them. -115, Milwaukee. Total, nine and a half. -122, the under in this game here today. I still want to call this Miller Park, but now it’s some insurance company field, which makes me want to vomit. But the brats are still pretty good, though. I can tell you that, guys, as well. So with that transition, another food guy, my man, Scott Spreitzer. What do you think about St. Louis at Milwaukee today, day baseball?
Scott Spreitzer:
Yeah. I’m looking at it and I’m thinking, “This is one of those situations…” And by the way, the first five total, I got to mention this, was five and a half last night at about 2:00 AM Pacific. And yeah, Mark, I’m up till 4:00 AM Pacific. I’m not out on the strip partying. I’m working on games. That was days past. That was back when I was a young guy. But anyway, it’s dropped from five and a half down to five, this first five innings total between the Cardinals and Brewers. And I kind of like it. It’s not a play, so to speak. It’s more of a deep lean, that I like the over in the first five. And I had just mentioned that most overs I like to bet full game because I like to take a chance that if it does go to extras, that ghost runner for each team may score an extra run.
Scott Spreitzer:
I don’t like either one of these scheduled starters in this game. I’m betting they both allow some runs. Dakota Hudson’s ERA is quite misleading, and he’s been pretty lucky over the course of the season thus far. And you can see that because he has a hefty hard-hit percentage. It’s about 45%. His FIP, his FIP, shows he is probably due to do a Blackburn. And I think Hudson could be just what the doctor ordered for the Brewer’s bats to get a little bit healthy, so to speak. The thing that concerns me, Jason Alexander. Well, he’s been purely lucky. And by concerns me, I’m going to say for those who like Milwaukee, 242 ERA, but he’s got a buck-70 WHIP. So there’s some of those traditional stats. And those numbers don’t jive too long. They usually catch up with you.
Scott Spreitzer:
The Cardinals’ bats are top 10 in batting average, OPS, wOBA, Weighted Runs Created Plus, over the last month, on the road against righties. And when you see a 242 ERA, but you see a first half total… excuse me… based mainly on starting pitchers that’s five. It kind of tells you what the books are thinking about, “That guy ain’t so hot.” Again, this isn’t as big of a play that I’m going to have on that Houston game in just a moment, but it is a lean, it is an opinion. And I might, before the day is out, get involved with this. We’re about an hour and a half or so away from this game getting underway, so I still got some time to do some work. But I would say, over five first five innings, from me, if you’re going to get involved.
TC Martin:
All right. BaseWinner?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. He threw out some really good numbers on that, and I would agree. So he wants to go over in the first five innings, which isn’t a bad idea. If you take a look at my ratings on both pitchers… And we’ll start with Jason Alexander from the Brewers. I think, really, he doesn’t have a huge body of work only 22 innings pitched this year. But the jury would say, I think, that Jason Alexander was much better as Costanza in Seinfeld-
Scott Spreitzer:
I was going to go there.
Mark Borchard:
… than he has been so far as a Major League pitcher. I have him a little bit better in the model than Hudson. Hudson I have… Really, he’s the second worst pitcher by my ratings. And I’ve never been a fan of Dakota Hudson. I have him with a 34% worse-than-average pitcher rating, from a run suppression standpoint. And if you take a look… And this is one of the reasons I brought some outside metrics in, to just kind of… as I talk about these games, because this is independent of what I do. I like to talk about him because it shows another perspective.
Mark Borchard:
And Saros over at The Athletic does a Stuff+ metric. It measures pitches on a granular level, 11 different metrics on the pitch, and then location and pitching plus as well. And Dakota Hudson Stuff+ is in the zero percentile. He’s the worst pitcher in baseball from a Stuff standpoint, location. And you think sometimes you see these guys with bad Stuff, and they can locate. I think Paul Blackburn can locate pretty good, despite his bad Stuff, but his location plus numbers are 37 percentile. So a nine percentile overall.
Mark Borchard:
So I think that I’m on the right path here. You look at Hudson’s ERA, 3.31, and you say, “Well, that’s not too bad, BaseWinner.” But his expected ERA… And I do strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and ground ball rate. And on my side, I have him at 5.51. And one of the things I think about in this game is, I think we’re going to see, no matter what happens, a pretty healthy dose of both bullpens. And I think we got a pretty significant edge here with the Brewer’s bullpen overall. And if you look, over the last 30 days, St. Louis, by that advanced metric chart, which takes a look at swinging strike rate and balls divided by pitches, St. Louis 28th in baseball. And if you look at Milwaukee, they’re in the top 10 overall in baseball.
Mark Borchard:
So I think we get an edge. Milwaukee, last 30 days in baseball, by that chart, sixth in baseball. So I think we get an edge there. And I think, offensively, St. Louis is probably a tick better than the Brewers in the respective splits. But I do like the St. Louis team much better versus left-handed pitching. I mean, why not? Paul Goldschmidt might be the best batter ever versus left-handed pitching, and that comes into the handicap. So I think it’s nice to see that they’re going to get a steady diet of right-handed pitching here, in my opinion. And so, for all those reasons, I’m going to go ahead… I’ve got it priced at -130 on my BaseWinner line. You can get it now at -112. I’d like it better at plus money. It’s swung overnight to the Brewers, but I’ll still take it at minus…. I think -115 is what it is on the chart, guys.
TC Martin:
Right. Right. Hard for me to pick a side here, guys, but I know one thing, and you both hit the nail in the head. Both pitchers very, very erratic here. I want no part of George Costanza or Dakota Fanning. Either one of those characters, I want nothing to do with. Alexander’s a career Minor Leaguer. He’s 29 years old. And I’ve talked a lot about these older pitchers who just haven’t made it to the big leagues. That tells you that they’re not very good, if you’re getting your first Major League start at the age of 29. This guy’s only averaged two strikeouts in his four starts this season. I think he’s going to get banged up. I think Scott makes a great case just for the over in the first five. But how about the over in this game, guys, as well, too.
TC Martin:
And I know that Milwaukee’s bullpen can be pretty decent, but for the most part, day baseball… Warm day in Milwaukee here today, the roof is probably going to be open. Yeah, I could almost advocate an over, in general, here. But I want no part of either one of these pitchers. But let’s lock BaseWinner in for his pick here today and root him on with the Milwaukee Brewers at home laying only 115 against Dakota Hudson and the St. Louis Cardinals. All right. Next up, Houston and the Yankees, start of a four-game series, first time they’ve met this season. Looking forward to these four games all weekend long. Yankees a dollar-21 favorite, probably the lowest number the Yankees have been at home all season long. That’s because the Astros are coming to town, and you can make the argument that we have the top two teams in the American League, definitely, maybe even the top two teams in Major League Baseball, if you want to say that, but at least in the American League, no doubt about it.
TC Martin:
Total in this game is eight, -120 towards the over. We have Framber Valdez going for the Astros. Jameson Taillon going for the Yankees. Not much really separates between these two teams, guys. They both have fantastic offenses. The Astros have found their groove here again. They’ve won seven out of their last eight games. We know the Yankees have been on fire all season long, and it is just hard to bet against the Yankees. Currently, they’ve won 11 of the last 13. I actually had the Yankees last night in that come-from-behind victory against Tampa Bay. Thank you, Aaron Judge and company. But Framber Valdez, actually, has won six of his seven starts here with the Astros.
TC Martin:
The Astros bats have come alive. They’ve scored 43 runs in Framber Valdez’s last… I should say, they’ve scored 43 runs in their last six wins. They’re averaging seven runs per contest. And I don’t know about you guys, but as far as Taillon goes, I’m not overly impressed with this guy. Let’s go back to this guy when he was with Pittsburgh. I mean, he ends up with the Yankees. He’s the benefactor of a great offense, a great organization, he gets run support, but he’s still not that good, in my opinion. And remember, going back to, what, last year or two years ago, nobody really wanted this guy. He has a career ERA of close to five. He’s a very hittable. So I think, again, you look at this line here, Yankees at -120. A lot of people are going to say, “Wow, when can I get the Yankees at home? Hottest team in baseball, laying only 120.” Well, there’s a reason for that, because the Houston Astros, this is a very good spot for them. I’m taking a shot with Valdez, Astro’s offense, today, against Taillon and the Yankees. BaseWinner?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. No, I think it’s a good play. And I’m going to go ahead and play the Astros today, TC. It’s one of the few times I’ve done it all year. But we talked about this over the last couple days, and I think one of the most interesting numbers that I’ve seen all season is the Astros’ actual run production, which is right about… It was 4.23 yesterday, so maybe it went up a little bit over overnight. But their run production based on their ISO power… Their ISO power is third in baseball, and their play discipline, BB walks divided by strikeouts, is number one in baseball. And this combination, you can price it, you can go into some details with some regression analysis, and they should be right about 5.1, 5.2 runs.
Mark Borchard:
And so, there’s a big chasm between what they’ve produced, if you just look at their runs per game, and then what their expected runs per game should be. In fact, I’ve got them a little bit better than the Yankees in that department. So I think that this offense is bound for some positive regression. In fact, I’ve got this game priced at -116. I think that they should be the favorite in this game. And I’m a fan of Valdez. My long-term projections has him projected better than Taillon.
Mark Borchard:
And one of the things that’s interesting, I think, about this handicap because… Earlier on in the year, I was super high on the Yankees bullpen, and it’s still a really good bullpen. There’s nothing wrong with the Yankees bullpen. But if you just take a look at this overall chart that takes in swinging strike percentage and balls divided by pitches… And I think those are things that pitchers really control… the Yankees are 10th in baseball and the Astros are seventh in baseball. So I think by that measurement, we get a little edge in the bullpen, we get a little edge in starting pitching, and I think that offense is bound for some positive regression. So I think there’s a good opportunity to get the Astros at a underdog price. I’m going to play those Houston Astros, TC. I’m looking forward to being on the same side as you on that team.
TC Martin:
All right. Well, let’s get it home. I know a lot of people say, “Oh, you’re going to bet against the Yankees?” And I love the left-handed bats that the Astros have in that hitters-friendly park down the right-field line in the right center field at Yankee Stadium as well, too. Tucker’s been banging the ball. And then, of course, Yordon Alvarez, phenomenal with two homers again. And I know those guys are just salivating when they’re looking at right field at Yankee Stadium. So going to take a shot, no doubt. Scott, your thoughts?
Scott Spreitzer:
Man, I know that folks love organic disagreements and all that kind of stuff. And we take a jab at each other like, TC, you and I’ve done a million times with our analysis over the years, but I can’t. I mean, it just wouldn’t be organic. I mean, I agree with you guys on the Astros. I’m going to throw something else in this game out there too. Under four and a half runs, first five innings. We will have a little bit of a disagreement, TC. I don’t disagree with your overall analysis of Jameson Taillon for his career. A lot of teams were passing on him too. Remember, he went through a… I believe he went through a recovery from cancer along the way, too.
TC Martin:
He did. Yeah.
Scott Spreitzer:
But the disagreeing part is that, like Valdez, Taillon’s throwing BBs right down. They’re both throwing really well. And if you look at hard-hit percentage, barrel rates… Hate to bore everybody with the same old thing over and over, but-
Mark Borchard:
It’s not boring, it’s exciting, barrel rate.
Scott Spreitzer:
There you go.
Mark Borchard:
Yay!
TC Martin:
He’s having a barrel rate party again.
Scott Spreitzer:
I’m so glad that I got Mark on the show with my first time doing this show with you guys because he gets it. But the bottom line is, is that both of these guys are tremendous right now in hard-hit percentage, in barrel rates. Hard-hit percentage for Valdez under 34%. Taillon, under 34%. They’re almost exact when it comes to their hard-hit percentage. So Taillon’s pitching extremely well right now. And when looking at playing first five inning unders, I want the starting pitchers who have strong early-on numbers when it comes to facing a batting order the first two times, sometimes the first three times, through those batting orders. And while both aren’t fantastic, 1.7 for Taillon or whatever, each time through, they both are pretty good, at least in two of those three first time through the batting orders. And I do look for that, and I like that.
Scott Spreitzer:
As far as the bats are concerned, look season long. If you’re kind of new to this and you’re watching, obviously, look season long to how teams are doing, especially when they’re consistent teams like the Stros and the Yankees. But also, look over the last, I would say month, if you’re looking to break it up over how teams do home and road because you don’t play a full month on the road, you don’t play a full month at home. And if you give yourself a full month, then you get enough games and enough info. And so, Houston ranks 22nd, 18th, 16th, and 15th on the road against righties in OPS, wOBA, Weighted Runs Created Plus, team batting average, 22nd in team batting average in those categories. New York’s worse. Over the last, let’s say… I’m going to say since the 1st of June, maybe the last few days of May, New York’s bottom third in all of Major League Baseball in batting average, in wOBA, in Weighted Runs Created Plus. And they’re 17th when it comes to OPS.
Scott Spreitzer:
So it’s not like the Yankees are just knocking the crap out of the baseball every time they step in a good pitcher over the last few weeks. And again, that’s at home against southpaws, those numbers, when I’m talking about the Yankees, over the past four weeks or so. I think under first five isn’t a bad way to go. It’s four and a half. I, myself, before the numbers come out, figuring the books are probably going to hang a four and a half on this because you know where the full game total’s going to be. When I break down all my stats, my stats say that the total in the first five, obviously you don’t get into to decimal points and all that when you’re betting, but would be about 3.83. So, for me, that’s a significant number as far as how much lower it is than the actual first five innings total that you can jump on.
TC Martin:
All right. To steal one of BaseWinner’s lines, to put all that in the mixer, we’re all on the Astros here today. There you go. All right, so let’s lock us in here under this. I’ll take the Astros with +11, as will BaseWinner. And Scott is going to go first five under, four and a half runs with Valdez and Taillon today, laying 120 with that. So there you have it.
TC Martin:
All right. We love the questions. So fire away here in the remaining minutes we have here in the chat room here at BetUS TV, the MLB Show. Remember, like, subscribe to the show, and also click that bell so you get the notifications when we go live. Let’s hit some questions. If you’ve got any questions regarding the games we hit on, or anything outside of that, we’ll get them for you. And again, very limited schedule here today. Marky Mark checks in and wants to give us some thoughts, or wants us to give him some thoughts, on the Cleveland-Minnesota game, over. Only scored 21 last night. Either one of you guys subscribe that this game hits the over again?
Mark Borchard:
[inaudible].
Scott Spreitzer:
I’m going to hold off on that, only because Buxton being out, Mark. I mean, I know they scored 10 runs without him last night, but I would lean more towards your play than the total in this one, and I’m just passing the total.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. I think that if I played it, I’d play the under here. I think that what’s overlooked, we look at the starters, and you’re like, “Oh, Plesac…” I have him league average, which I guess would be controversial to some, that he’s even that good. And Smeltzer, we all said his metrics, they literally smelled. But the bullpens are pretty good. So I think that that might be something that’s overlooked. And the total’s high. It’s at nine and a half. So I think that if I played it, I’d play the under, but I don’t really have any interest. I really can’t advocate playing an under that involves Devin Smeltzer.
TC Martin:
Right. So next up A-Rod’s asking us… Not that A-rod, a better version of-
Mark Borchard:
How do we know?
TC Martin:
That’s true. It could be.
Scott Spreitzer:
I know nothing about J.Lo. I was bowling, okay?
TC Martin:
Phillies-Padres tonight. Joe Musgrove, back on the hill. Musgrove, I had him the last down against the Cubs at Wrigley field, seven strong innings. Musgrove may have a little bit of an injury here as well, too. So we got to monitor that. Any thoughts today, guys, on the Phillies bats against Joe Musgrove and the Padres? Scott?
Scott Spreitzer:
I passed it, and it’s a lot to do with, I got to see how Musgrove looks. Is he going to be able to go in and do his normal stuff, be in for his normal length of time, throw the amount of pitches he normally does? That matters, obviously, a lot to me, as it should to everybody who’s betting these games. Now, I lean towards the Padres. Listen, I got to tell you something, I got to be candid. I was off on this Padres team. I know they hired a manager you can’t really bet unders on when it comes to over/under wins totals with his history with Oakland and everything.
Scott Spreitzer:
But when you throw in the injury that they suffered before the season, it was a situation where I think the Padres have excelled. I think they played much better wins and losses. Maybe their metrics aren’t as good as their record for the entire course of the season, but it’s a team when they’re at home that I look to play on or pass. And in this situation, I’m only… I hate to do that and say, “I’m passing,” when guys ask if you like a side. I lean that way, but boy, I just can’t get involved until I see Musgrove and if he’s anywhere close to norm or not. If he’s not close to the norm, you’re really taking a chance with him if you’re putting your money on him.
TC Martin:
Yeah. Two things there. I don’t think we have to apologize for passing on games because, again, that’s why we have our best bets here. And I think people respect if we don’t really have an opinion, instead of force opinion. But, hey, if they like the game, we can give them some tidbits to it. So I think everyone understands that. But part two of this, hard for me to play the Padres, and I’ve been off him since Machado is injured as well, too. and without Tatis Jr., without the heart of your order, it’s hard to play this team right now. So yeah, I had to pass as well, too. And plus, as we know, I mean, if Musgrove’s not a hundred percent, those Philly bats, especially with Bryce Harper being back now from the injured hand, better safe not to play this, I think. BaseWinner, your thoughts, quickly, on this?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. I have it priced at -137, so it’s right where it needs to be. But I wanted to say this about Joe Musgrove because I’m hearing some rumors about, “He’s a great play for the Cy Young Award.” And I just can’t see it. No, his 1.59 ERA looks good. His base winner ERA’s not bad. I mean, it’s not awful, but it’s 3.08. This is one of the reasons I did this, is because I wanted to see who is lucky and who has been unlucky, so I used… We talked about this yesterday, TC… left on base percentage, home runs divided by fly balls, and batting average of balls in play, computer percentile for each one.
Mark Borchard:
And long story short on Musgrove, there’s 171 pitchers that qualify with 20 innings pitched. He’s the ninth luckiest pitcher in baseball. So I don’t see him for Cy Young there. I think that that would be a waste of money. I don’t know. I mean, Burnes is looking pretty good in that Cy Young market. I’ve said Nola 30 to 1, a couple weeks ago. And I think he still has a decent chance to get there. But it’s Burnes to lose right now. Nola would be my second choice, based on his strikeouts and advanced metrics.
TC Martin:
Okay. And Ranger Suarez is going today for the Phillies, and he’s been a go-against for us. We’ve talked about him in the past as well, too. Final thoughts here, Seattle and Oakland today. Another shot going against the A’s, BaseWinner?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. This was a tough one for me to not pull the trigger. And I will tell you that my model has it at -154. So you look at the price and you say, “-127, that looks pretty tasty.” But, for me, the humidor in Oakland is going to play a big role. There’s five that play a role, in my opinion, over this particular season, and that’s San Francisco, Los Angeles, Cleveland, Oakland, and San Diego, places where sometimes it’s very humid. And then the humidor is set a standard level.
Mark Borchard:
Without getting into the physics and the science behind it, today, I think that the ball’s going to get dried out a little bit. And that doesn’t really bode well for Robbie Ray, who’s kind of Achilles’ heel is giving up that home run. So I stayed off of it, model like Seattle. There was a couple of things that I just… That humidor thing just bothers me. I’m going to pass on it. Of course, Montas is good. I have him rated better than Ray, but significant advantage in the bullpen for Seattle and offensively as well. So, for me, conflicting components. I’m going to pass on it, TC.
TC Martin:
That’s because they’re keeping those baseballs, Mark, in the steamer of the Miller hot dogs there at the Oakland County Coliseum there, whatever it’s called now. Yeah, absolutely. So [inaudible]-
Mark Borchard:
Well, what’s [inaudible].
TC Martin:
… 3,412 fans that’ll be in attendance at this game.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. Without getting into it, Major League Baseball… And I’ll just be brief on this… they want to keep the ball at the similar standard across the league, which I think, in principle, is a decent idea. But in Oakland, it’s drier in April. So they were actually injecting water into a ball in April at a park that’s kind of a pitcher’s park to begin with. So that made no sense. But I think that it’s going to even out in Oakland when it gets a little bit more humid there, TC.
TC Martin:
Scott, I know you can appreciate the very underrated hot dogs at Oakland, though. The Miller hot dogs, outstanding, a Bay Area specialty there. Other than that, there’s no reason to go to that park. Anyway, go ahead.
Scott Spreitzer:
My gosh. I’ll go to the park if I can help them move to Vegas, if I can carry some back [inaudible]-
TC Martin:
Thank you very much. Right?
Scott Spreitzer:
… get them out of Oakland, bring them here to Sin City. I’ve been to just about every park on the West Coast, including in Phoenix, where Mark’s not too far from Phoenix. He’s in the same state. But I’ve never gone. I’ve never made that trip to Oakland. I just have no desire to be in a stadium with 400 of your closest friends. So anyway, back to this game and the question. If I was going to play this… And I like what Mark said. I think you said you made the line about a buck-55-ish, right around there.
Mark Borchard:
-154. Yeah.
Scott Spreitzer:
Yeah. And I made mine a buck-44 on this. So we’re kind of thinking the same thing. But you mentioned some very good numbers or thoughts when it comes to Ray, when he’s pitching in the situation that’s being involved today. And I’m like you, I have Montas rated better than Ray. If I was going to get involved, I would go first five Oakland, believe it or not. But I’m not in the habit of betting horrible teams, and here’s a good example. Let’s say, right now, Seattle’s minus a buck-70, and Mark and I both made Seattle what we did, in the dollar-50s, and for me in the dollar-40s, I’m still not grabbing the A’s full game. I just cannot do it with this team. If I had to play it, if you made me play it, I would take Montas first five, and then either collect my money or take my whipping after five innings.
TC Martin:
Yeah. And we’ve talked about Robbie Ray before, the former Cy Young Award winner, not living up to that. But the A’s are the A’s. All right, guys. Great stuff. We appreciate the questions, as always. Let’s go to the best bets, as we wrap it up here on a Thursday edition here on BetUS on the MLB Show. And today, we’re all on the Houston Astros in some shape or form here. Scott is going to go Houston-Yankees under four and a half runs, laying 120 in the first five of that. I’m taking a shot with the Astros +111, as is the BaseWinner. And then Mark’s also going to go with Cleveland +120 today, against Minnesota. And he’s going to take a shot with the Milwaukee Brewers at home, laying 115 against Dakota Hudson and the St. Louis Cardinals. All right. Great stuff, guys.
TC Martin:
Remember, we’re going to be back at it again tomorrow. We invite all of you to join us here at the MLB Show. Remember, ring that bell, hit that bell, click it, do whatever you got to do to get the notifications when we go live, 12:OO noon Eastern Time right here, Monday through Friday. Make sure that you follow each of us individually on Twitter. Scott is @scottwins, and then obviously at BetUS TV as well, too. And again, you’ll get all those notifications, get all your information, not just about the MLB Show, but all the other great shows that we have here at BetUS TV. All right. Good stuff, guys. Good luck on our bets. Limited card today, but I think we covered it, and we even covered some great funk music today as well, too, some hot dogs, some food. And yes, we have a ringing endorsement for a double barrel rate with both of these guys here today. You can’t beat that. Even a couple TV references today. Scott, appreciate you, as always, my friend.
Mark Borchard:
Oh, wow.
TC Martin:
And Scott’ll be back to join me. Go take a nap for a couple hours because he’ll be on my show at 3:00 Pacific Time, 6:00 Eastern, tcmartinshow.com. BaseWinner, enjoy your day today, my friend.
Mark Borchard:
Absolutely. You missed your double barrel action cue.
TC Martin:
That’s it. We did get a triple X rating as well.
Mark Borchard:
We got double-barrel action.
TC Martin:
Don’t forget your triple X rating, BaseWinner.
Mark Borchard:
The triple X. Yeah, I’ll definitely bring that up tomorrow.
Scott Spreitzer:
I got to hear this.
TC Martin:
Yeah, yeah. All right, guys. Thanks, everyone, for joining us. We’ll catch everyone tomorrow, right here at the MLB Show on BetUS TV.
