TC Martin:
And welcome to a Thursday edition of the MLB Show. Brought to you by BetUS TV here on the BetUS Network. Of course, BetUS , America’s favorite sportsbook. I am TC Martin coming to you live from Las Vegas on this Thursday and my tag team partners from left to right, Jeff Nadu, coming at you from Philadelphia, and the Basewinner, Mark Borchard from Scottsdale, Arizona.
TC Martin:
Glad everyone can join us here on this Thursday as we handicap some baseball winners for you. Well, pretty much full card on the docket here on this Thursday today and then we will diagnose it for you. Remember, Monday through Friday, 12 noon Eastern, right here BetUS TV, The MLB Show, make sure you like and subscribe to us and you get the notifications when you hit that bell so you know when we go live here on BetUS TV and The MLB Show. Great stuff guys, welcome aboard. Jeff, how you doing today on this Thursday?
Jeff Nadu:
Pretty good, hopefully all you guys are doing well also.
TC Martin:
All right. And Basewinner, what is happening in your nice newly landscaped office there?
Mark Borchard:
I’m doing good outside of getting beat by a flare and Diamondback come from behind home runs… So, you probably won’t see Diamondback come from behind home runs much this year or a guy pitching a 97% like Zack Wheeler did last night, but the Phillies couldn’t score a run off Martin Perez and his advanced metrics in that game were awful. So it’s one of those things when you get beat by flare you got to turn the page, go to the next day. So, looking forward to breaking down today’s card.
TC Martin:
All right, good stuff here, guys. All right. As we look at today’s games, we head into the weekend here. We’ve got some new series that are starting, then we got the tail end of others here that we usually get here on a Thursday. And guys, one thing that we have been talking a lot about here is the low batting averages in Major League Baseball, that all time low of 233, is what it is. The lowest in the history of Major League Baseball. And when we’re going through these totals here, it seems weird doesn’t it, that we have both leagues now that have the designated hitter and we’re rarely seeing any 9’s or nine and a half’s on here at all.
TC Martin:
Even in these National League parks, we’re seeing some… Or rather the American League parks, we’re seeing some six and a half’s and 7’s and seven and a half’s. Is just crazy that the batting averages are so low. It’s a trend we’ve seen in Major League Baseball, whether it’s the free swingers or the pitching really is that good, or what it is. We’ve talked about baseballs before. That factors into it as well too. But we’re looking at these totals, I just thought we would be getting higher totals with both teams now, especially, the National League having the DH. Any quick thoughts before we get into today’s game about the totals and the low bating averages. Jeff?
Jeff Nadu:
I don’t really have any other thoughts other than it’s just an annoyance at this point. For me it’s interesting, because I backed Toronto the last couple of nights I was on the show, they don’t get the job done. And then yesterday, of course, they win and I don’t know, it just gets irritating from time to time. But you have teams that also have been without certain players, where the lineups just don’t look the same.
Jeff Nadu:
I’m getting sick and tired of the blaming it on baseballs and stuff like that. Look, these are professionals at the end of the day. I wonder… It’s interesting. But it’s also coupled with unlucky. You look at someone today, like Senzatela. Go look at his stats and then look at his… It’s crazy. His ERA as far as compared to his stats. I’m sure Mark’s noticed that. His ERA is good, but you look at his opponent batting average is like 400. How’s he not giving up any runs? It’s just weird. I don’t really know how to decipher it anymore. It’s just been annoying really at this point.
TC Martin:
Yeah. And I’m with you. I really don’t like to blame the baseballs and everything, but we’re just seeing just a lot of bad fundamental hitting too, from what I see. And it’s not like that the pitching is great. It’s not like we’re flashing back to 1968 or 1972 and we have all these guys firing complete games and we have 20, 25 and 30 win pitchers like you did back in the day.
TC Martin:
Back in the day, you had dominant pitchers. And I like to use that 1968 term because we go back and had guys like Bob Gibson and Tom Seaver, Luis Tiant, Denny McLain, Juan Marichal. I was going over those stats the other day, it’s just amazing how many of those guys had 20, 25, and 30 complete games and we’re not seeing that. And that’s where you would see, low bating averages. But here, I just really believe it’s just that we’ve got guys that are undisciplined at the plate. They’re free swingers and it’s not like the pitching is outstanding. Honestly, what do we have in this game? Maybe four or five dominant pitchers in this modern day era of baseball?
Mark Borchard:
Oh, I would disagree with you TC. I think the pitching is much better than… I think it’s at an all time best. If you look at the guys’ velocity, the way the ball moves. Oh gosh! You can’t compare it to 1968.
TC Martin:
But the numbers don’t support that, Mark. Wins and losses don’t support that. When’s the last time we had 20, 25 game winners?
Mark Borchard:
Well, I think you’re talking about two… Maybe we’re talking about two separate things. I’m talking about the actual pitch quality compared to 1968. And I don’t think there’s really any argument if you look at velocity, movement of the pitch. I think, it’s you personally, like to see guys go deep and that qualifies you as how good of a pitcher a guy can be. But I think with the analytics show that it’s really hard. Outside of a guy like maybe Wheeler, there’s a couple other guys that can go deep into the game, they’re not going to pitch these pitchers in third time into the lineup and the numbers make sense because they get worse as the games go along. I would agree with you, in maybe that their durability or their ability to go deep into the lineups isn’t there, but they don’t need these guys to go deep into the lineups.
Mark Borchard:
And I think they have a ton of a lot better stuff than… You can’t even compare it to guys in the early 90s. These guys are throwing harder, the pitches are moving, plus they have… You can blame this on analytics because they know how to attack the batters’ holes and the swing. These guys have scouted these batters to the nth degree and they’re not going to pitch to their strengths. They’re going to pitch to their weaknesses.
Mark Borchard:
So, there’s a lot match up stuff. I think there’s a lot of analytics that go behind it. I think it favors the pitcher. Because a pitcher, they know what they’re doing, the batter has to react to the pitcher and the pitcher has… Compared to even 10 years ago you can see these velocities, they go up every year and so do the other one. The pitch drops, the metrics, the horizontal, the vertical movement, all that stuff. In my opinion, the pitching is much better than it was 20 years.
Jeff Nadu:
We look at this stuff every day. I don’t think I can name five elite pitchers in this league. But listen, with Mark, I’m always fascinated.
TC Martin:
Here is-
Mark Borchard:
McClanahan, Kershaw, Gaslin.
Jeff Nadu:
McClanahan. McClanahan is an elite pitcher, Mark.
Mark Borchard:
He is.
TC Martin:
The players are bigger, faster, stronger.
Mark Borchard:
He’s got the best baserunner ear in the game.
TC Martin:
The players are bigger, faster, stronger. That’s why the velocity’s up. Velocity’s up because these guys are workout machines but it doesn’t mean that their stuff is electric, because the numbers would back that up if the numbers-
Mark Borchard:
What numbers are you specifically talking about?
TC Martin:
What I’m talking about, you’re not getting low ERAs around the board. You’re not getting complete games. You’re getting guys that have high velocity, but they’re guys that throw 100mph, they get racked. Look at Hunter Greene. We talk about him. We talk about… There’s so many other guys. So, just because you have high velocity and your pitched up is good, does not make you a great pitcher.
Mark Borchard:
Well, but there’s more to-
TC Martin:
The batting averages are low, because the hitters are not that good. They’re undisciplined. There’s also-
Mark Borchard:
Oh, I disagree with you. These guys have more power and swing speed than they did 20 years ago.
TC Martin:
I’m not talking about power.
Mark Borchard:
Oh my God, pitch recognition.
TC Martin:
I’m talking about player discipline.
Mark Borchard:
We’re on polar opposite sides of this. The hitters are better. The pitchers are better. These guys are tremendous athletes.
TC Martin:
How many Walton Cruise do we have out there? How many Tony Gwynns? How many Pete Rose do we have out there? Very few, come on.
Mark Borchard:
No, you’re talking about elite hitters like Ted Williams. Ted Williams was great in his day. He was a freak in his day, but I don’t think that you could compare the lineup around Ted Williams to really the worst lineup in baseball right now. These guys are much stronger, they swing the ball, the pitch recognition, all this stuff. It could be quantified.
TC Martin:
Absolutely. That’s undisputed.
Mark Borchard:
You had some guys that racked up some numbers versus-
TC Martin:
Look the quality.
Mark Borchard:
… look at who is pitching. If Rod Carew was pitch… And I love Rod Carew, I grew up as an Angels fan.
TC Martin:
We are in this position.
Mark Borchard:
If Rod Carew was hitting against these pitchers today, he wouldn’t hit his good. It’s a pure fact.
TC Martin:
Are you kidding me? Who Rod Carew hit against some of the all time greats? Jeff’s shaking his head. I’m shaking my head. That’s-
Mark Borchard:
The pitching was better in 1982 than it is in 2022. That’s crazy. That’s insane.
TC Martin:
The pitching stinks right now.
Mark Borchard:
Oh like, God! You got to be kidding me! You’re comparing 2022-
TC Martin:
I’m talking about day in and day out.
Mark Borchard:
I’ll tell you what, if I was a hitter, I would much rather face pitchers in the early 80s than the pitchers now.
TC Martin:
Why are the bating averages at an all time low in the history?
Mark Borchard:
Because, the pitchers are good. That’s why.
Jeff Nadu:
So, hey TC.
TC Martin:
It is 233. 233, it’s never been the low.
Mark Borchard:
But the pitchers are bad.
TC Martin:
Because, you had all of those Hall of Famers.
Jeff Nadu:
TC, all you need to hear is Mark just listed Shane McClanahan as an elite pitcher baseball. A guy that has 27 innings pitched against the Orioles, Athletics, Cubs, Twins of Red. So, come on Mark, I’m serious.
Mark Borchard:
Shane McClanahan had 90, this stuff measured like Sarah measures this stuff.
Jeff Nadu:
Mark. I’m aware you-
Mark Borchard:
Fastball dropped, pitch movement, pitch disparity between the pitches. He’s a 93 plus stuff plus guy. Okay, whatever. We’re going to argue about this and-
Jeff Nadu:
Is he a Hall of Famer? Is he even an All-Star?
Mark Borchard:
He’s pitching this year better than probably 50 guys in the Hall of Fame.
Jeff Nadu:
The answer is no to both questions.
Mark Borchard:
Most people in the Hall of Fame. I would put Shane McClanahan against half the guys, the pitchers in the Hall of Fame. He’s got better stuff. It’s just a fact.
Jeff Nadu:
Through five games Mark.
TC Martin:
And what is the sample size here?
Jeff Nadu:
Five games.
Mark Borchard:
Well, you could argue sample size, but, I would take Shane McClanahan’s… I could pick 50 guys in the Hall of Fame that are pitchers and I would take Shane McClanahan’s last five games against those 50 guys. He’s probably throwing six, seven miles an hour faster. His movements… Incredibly more. These guys are like they pitched in 1960.
Jeff Nadu:
TC keep in mind. None of them were complete game shutouts. None of them, he lasted all the game.
Mark Borchard:
Just think about it but it’s just like go across the sports. Would you rather have a football team in this day and age or the 1965 football team? And it’s the same thing in baseball.
TC Martin:
That’s not the argument at all.
Mark Borchard:
It’s totally my argument. My argument is these guys a re athletically just superior to people that play 50 years ago.
TC Martin:
But it doesn’t translate into better batting averages.
Mark Borchard:
Because they’re playing against the competition playing against competition.
TC Martin:
Because you’re bigger, faster, stronger. Because you’re throwing the ball maybe five or six miles per hour, faster than guys 10, 20, 30 years ago.
Mark Borchard:
So, let me ask you a simple question. Do you think Aroldis Chapman would pitch better in 1982 or better now?
TC Martin:
I don’t know the answer to that.
Mark Borchard:
He would dominate the 1982 ballots.
TC Martin:
That’s over 100 before the invention of the jugs gun. So what are you saying? There were guys that threw that fast.
Mark Borchard:
There were some good pitchers back then, but as a whole, as a rule.
TC Martin:
Go back-
Mark Borchard:
These guys day in and day out, have to pitch better against better competition. So anyway I that’s… I can back it up with the raw data, the pitch data. That says all the volumes, like how fast the guys thrown out? How much do-
TC Martin:
Who do not have the ERAs and-
Mark Borchard:
These Ham and Angers would’ve been elite pitchers in 1982. They got better stuff than… Maybe you can give me no one. No why can probably pitch.
TC Martin:
2022 is better than any year, 20, 30 years ago. That’s what you’re saying.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, I do. I definitely think the athlete, they better athletically. The stuff’s better. I think of better.
TC Martin:
Or they’ll dispute that.
Mark Borchard:
They’re wrong.
TC Martin:
The quality baseball is suffering right now because the lack of hitting and the lack of plate discipline and the lack of quality pitching. Plain simple. It is.
Mark Borchard:
Oh my God! It’s not.
TC Martin:
We can agree.
Mark Borchard:
So, the pitchers were better in 1980 than they are today.
Jeff Nadu:
Listen, either way, Mark is a steadfast in his opinion, TC. Listen Mark, I think you’re a little off here but-
Mark Borchard:
Well, let me ask you this, Jeff, would you rather play in 1982 when the average velocity was low 90s at best, probably high 80s or would you rather play now when the average velocity is 5% or five miles per hour greater? The pitchers have better movement. They’re not using the pitchers as much as you get different looks against different pitchers. Would you rather be a hitter in 1982 or would you rather be a hitter now?
Jeff Nadu:
Probably now slightly, but again, at the end of the day, Mark, there’s a lot of things going on with some of the… As Paul Byrd, former pitcher tweeted out last night, “The baseballs are dead.” I think it has a lot more to do with some of the insular things going on than how talented some of these pictures are. I don’t think actually… Look, Shane McClanahan is not… Give him… Look if he does this to entire year.
Mark Borchard:
I would rather put Shane McClanahan on my rotation. The guy’s got some of the best stuff in the history of the game.
TC Martin:
Game rotation compared to a Hall of Famer is totally different. All right guys, let’s move on, let’s handicap these games today. We got four games that we’re going to take a look at before we get into that. Let’s take a look at our tote board and the records and we’ll talk about what we did yesterday. I had the Astros. Yesterday, they got win one nothing over Seattle Basewinners. We mentioned on two yesterday, had the… A couple hard block losers there with the Miami losing to Arizona and Philly losing to Texas. We’ll see if those teams can get back on track here today. So, there is the record board, 24 and 16 for yours truly Jeff’s there nine and 15 basewinner, 21 in 19. So-
Jeff Nadu:
Two older people. See, I knew Jeff Day, who couldn’t gamble on sports. Look at that. He shocks, I knew… They’re going to be coming soon.
TC Martin:
Jeff you’re you’re taking that record way too personal. And I-
Jeff Nadu:
I don’t take it personal. Listen, I bet baseball. I have a good time with it. It’s a summer thing. I’ve never contended. It’s the strongest sport I ever bet on MLB . I’ve said many times. I don’t like baseball, watching it as much as I like watching college football. But it’s part of my repertoire.
TC Martin:
All right, let’s handicap some winners today guys. Let’s get at it here. And let’s start with the Washington Nationals taking on the Colorado Rockies. Aaron Sanchez going today, not Annabel Sanchez, who’s injured, but Aaron Sanchez for Washington and Anthony Senzatela going today for the Rockies. Rockies are at home, dollar 32 favorite, there’s a high total we’re back at Coors Field. And the total is 11 shaded to the over at minus 120. Jeff, start us off here, Washington and Colorado. Who do you like?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. We just went through a conversation and historically about how nobody’s hitting, but I’ll tell you one group that is hitting at home, it’s Colorado Rockies. Average home is six runs a game. Of course, that’s been a norm for a long period of time. That’s been something for as long as I can remember, they hit, in course. It’s one of the reasons of 14 to 10 this year, because on the road they’ve been a complete mess, but in Coors they’ve been good. You’re going to have obviously a very early start here but when we look at how good they’ve been. 280 batting average at home, got a lot of guys that can hit the base here, obviously with black men up at the top. C.J. Cron’s been good for them this year. Grinch Ick. I’m really looking to fade Sanchez.
Jeff Nadu:
I’m really looking to just back a team that I know can hit the baseball at home. Five and a half runs is a lot in a game like this but the good thing about facing Washington is you’re going to get Sanchez who has a lot of opponents in two starts at 343. The Giants destroyed him and both starts really this year. This is not a guy that’s really been good pitcher, I think ever in his career, maybe once or twice, he had a good year or two when he was at Toronto. But ultimately I don’t trust him, especially in Coors. You’re probably going to have good weather out there today and one of the reasons I’m not going to necessarily lay the 135 this year with the Rockies is I talked about Senzatela. He’s got some of the weirdest numbers you’ll see. You look at in four games this year, he’s got an ERA 3.66 over 19 and two thirds innings.
Jeff Nadu:
But when you look at his numbers, opponents… Some of these games have teed off on him. His whip is high. He seemingly gotten a little lucky. I feel like in a couple of these games, but… When you went through four games guys, his opponents hitting 413 against him. Whip is almost two yet his ERA is 3.66. It probably eludes that he’s gotten a little lucky with some of this stuff. I’m not real interested in backing him, just because I do think this is probably a game where both teams hit. I’m going to back the Rockies. I think they score some runs here. I’m going to go with their team total over five and a half over here and hope they get, six, seven. They’ve scored 10 or more over the last, two of the last three games. So, I’m hoping for similar numbers here.
TC Martin:
All right, Mark. What do your numbers say with this pitchers, especially in Coors Field and the light air?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. I think that it’s priced correctly at, they say five and a half is the total. I’ve got him scoring 5.5, three runs. I’m not a huge fan of Sanchez. He’s been somewhat serviceable this year. He’s got a couple 30%, which aren’t great, but they’re better than Aaron’s that I would think for Aaron Sanchez. He’s got a 37% stuff plus, so there’re some things that I like about playing the Rockies over. Jeff sided a bunch of different stats for Colorado and I think that the one stat that’s really important to look like a whole stat for Colorado, is there’s way to runs creative plus, is at 102, which is a little bit better than average, but that’s the only stat really on the board that adjusts for that home field component of Colorado.
Mark Borchard:
So, I think he’s… Jeff’s got some good stuff going for him on his play. Aaron Sanchez. I think there’s a high probability that the Rockies won’t hit in the 9th inning, because I think they’ll probably win that game. See, I’ll see what I haven’t priced at. I got it priced at… I’ve got well about half and half. So, there’s a half chance that they might not batten the 9th innings. But you price all that in and to me, it’s kind of a no play, but I hope Jeff can get this one, actually.
Jeff Nadu:
Keep in mind. Real quick with Sanchez and I know I’m sure Mark knows this. In the league, Sanchez is in the bottom 2% in hard hit rate. He’s just not good. I don’t know how to really say it. Now he’s only had a couple of starts, but this guy’s not good. They have no bullpen. They have one of the worst pitching stats in baseball as we know. So, I’m going to hope the Rockies do their norm and score their five and five six runs here at home.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. That’s a good look, Jeff. So, his two starts at third percentile hard hit and 34th percentile hard hit. So, that’s a good look there on the hard hit metrics.
TC Martin:
Yeah. Both these pitchers are very hittable. We’ll see if we get a high scoring game here. Maybe something goes over that total as well too and Jeff’s spanking on that. So, it’s like I’m in at the over five and a half runs for the Colorado Rockies at home today. All right, next game up guys. Let’s talk about the Mets and the Phillies. These teams have played a whole bunch of times already early on this year. They’re going to do it again this time, they change the venue and they go to Citizens Bank Park, $58 for the Phillies, plus 143 if you like the dog here. And the Mets total is eight shaded towards the over minus one 20. If you like the over in this game. Walker is going for the Mets and there are Nola going for the Phillies. Today, Aaron Nola guys, 54 strikeouts against the New York Mets last season.
TC Martin:
And also one start this year we had nine strikeouts and no walks. Like Nola, I think he’s… This Philly staff here in Walker I’m not a fan of whatsoever at all. This guy’s lost the last four times that he’s taken the mound against the Philadelphia Phillies. Phillies’ offense has been producing. They’re at top 10 offense in many of the major categories in specifically scoring five runs a game that puts in 5th in major league baseball. So, I like the Phillies’ offense today. I think they get on track. They’re starting to come around a little bit, pretty healthy as well too. And I like Nola. He knows these Mets hitters. There’s a reason why he has so many strikeouts against these guys. A lot swinging misses and especially Walker. I’m not a fan of Walker. I’m going to take Philadelphia in this game. Basewinner?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. This is a play for me. I’m going to play the Phillies on the five, any line and it prices at minus 155 on the five inning line. And I’ve got a price just with Nola versus Walker at minus 204. So I like that. I don’t want to fool around with the Philadelphia bullpen. I think that the Mets have… The Mets are eighth by my ratings in bullpen and the Phillies are 16th. So, I don’t want to mess around with that bullpen.
Mark Borchard:
It’s really hard not to like Nola based on what he’s done in his last two starts. And his last start against the Mets, he threw an 81% by my three metric chart. And then the start prior to that against the Brewers. He was in the 95th percentile. So, that’s something to really like about this game. And then I think with Walker, I have him about league average 99 basewinner run number, which makes sense in the three metric chart. He’s a 109 out of 210. This is pitchers since last July 5th now. And then when you take a look at Nola, he’s 16th out of 210. So, for all those factors, I think that this is a good play on the five inning line. I’m going to go with the Phillies here.
TC Martin:
All right, Jeff.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I think… You look at this game and you think to yourself, “What’s up with this number.” The Mets have been so good all season and here they are, get the nice, healthy price back against the Phillies who are 11 and 14. And look, a lot of gamblers are going to just look at that and say, “I’m on the Mets here.” This is a strong signal to me that the Phillies are the play here. I’ve said before, I’m not a big Nola guy. We have to remember last time Nola pitched, it was against the Mets and the Phillies were no hit in that game. They didn’t have a hit in the game. So, Walker, I got to give him a little credit though, as well. He’s been very good. He was very good last time out against the Phillies, but the bullpen gave it up and they lost four ones, a couple weird outings.
Jeff Nadu:
Both pitchers are all obviously pitched well, but… They either had a bullpen blow or the team couldn’t get a hit. So, I don’t know… Something tells me the over might be in play here. I don’t love Nola and some of these individual hitters for New York, they’ve seen him a lot. They’ve got some good numbers. I think they’re going to be on base against him. We’ll see if he can shut it down, it matters most. I feel like Walker, maybe he’s overpitched in a game or two here. Something tells me this team might go over. It’s like a five, three type of game but I think the number says it all. You’re listening to Phillies at 160, a team that is 11 and 14 and have had their own struggles against one of the best teams at baseball paper. I think a lot of people are going to get a little plus money and think they have something here. It’s kind of a sucker but I think you guys are right.
TC Martin:
Well, one thing with about Walker too, and I realized that his stats will look pretty good in that game where he only gave up two hits and no runs. There was only five innings. But you got to remember, he only struck out two guys and walked one. And there was a lot of hard contact in that game, by the Phils. And when he pitched earlier on in the season, he got the start and only went two innings and it was like, they took the opener approach of this guy. You know you’re not going to get any innings with this guy. So again, you’re going to be into the Mets bullpen. Pretty early as well too. You’ll probably get some middle relievers today, but I do like the way the Phillies are swinging the bats right now.
TC Martin:
And I’ll take a shot with him at home here. So lock me in with Philadelphia. In this case, we’ll take the Phillies at minus 158 and basewinner is going to take Philly in the first five. It’s going to lay a heavy price for that. Minus one 60 thinking the Phillies will jump on top of Walker early. So, those are two plays in this game. Next up, we go back to Houston and the Tigers are coming into Houston to take on the Astros. The Astros, a dollar 59 favorite in this one. The total is eight shaded to the over minus 120 in the total, over eight in this one. For Detroit, they’re sending a Skubal to the mound against Urquidy for Houston. Skubal got ripped last time out at Minnesota, gave up six runs. Actually, three of them were earned. There are couple errors in that game and only five innings pitched, but he did give up, like I said, six hits had the same numbers, pretty much against The White Sox.
TC Martin:
A couple starts earlier. This is a game where the Astros believe it or not have been talking about because A.J. Hinch, their former manager from a few years ago, a part of the scandal though, they came back and swept the Astros in Houston last year. They’re not going to let that happen again. Really, I wasn’t even going to play this game, but I looked at this situation and thinking Detroit’s not got to come in here and sweep the Astros once again. And Detroit’s really tired. Their bullpen has been beat up. They played a doubleheader yesterday against Pittsburgh in their victory against Pittsburgh, where they won the game.
TC Martin:
They only had three hits in that game. So, they haven’t been hitting the ball. Their pitching’s tired. And for me, I’m just looking at this game thinking, “Houston’s bats are really coming alive right now. I think they’re in the middle of the streak where you’re going to see them run off 6, 7, 8 wins in a row. The opponent is very friendly.” Again, had a day game yesterday. They’re staying at home, Detroit’s traveling. I like the Astros in this and especially the price. I was shocked to see that the price was only, 158, 159. So I do like the Astros. Jeff?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I think you made a lot of good points. I just don’t really see it when Urquidy… I don’t think he’s been any good at all. I don’t really have any interest in backing him. Couple the fact that, Houston has been absolutely horrible against left-handed pitching so far this year. They’re barely it 200 against lefties. And I know base winners mention occasion. I think he said he likes Skubal. I don’t mind him either. I think this Tigers seems kind of plucky. I know they not have… They haven’t really shown that in the wind column, but I don’t know. Something tells me this is a bit of a high number. I feel like we’re still priced in Houston like they’re… And look, they very well may be long term, one of the better teams in the AAL.
Jeff Nadu:
But I don’t know. I feel like they’ve bee just 500 all season. I don’t think Urquidy’s very good. You talk about a guy that didn’t really last long into games. I think you alluded to though. This is a decent spot from a travel perspective and things of that nature, but I don’t know, couple with the fact that they don’t really hit lefties. I don’t know. I lead… If I play this game, I would take maybe a shot here with the Tigers in the first five and maybe just hope that Skubal just is the advantage. I think Mark, you’d agree? Skubal’s the better pitcher than Urquidy.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. I think if you take a look at a couple different metrics for Skubal, I would agree with you that he is a little bit better pitcher. I’ve got Urquidy at a 94 run suppression number. So, he’s 72nd at 150 pitchers so right about mid-pack Skubal you’re right, Jeff. I am very high on him. I have him with an 80 run suppression number 30th out of 150 pitchers. I have that shakes out. If you look at the three metric chart comparing the two over the last, this is four months worth of data. Skubal’s at the 68th percentile or Urquidy is in the 58th percentile. And then taking a look at maybe a metric that more people are familiar with. And we’re just talking about strikeout percentage over the last 365 days, Skubal 27% strikeout percentage. That’s pretty darn good against Urquidy with a 21% strikeout rate.
Mark Borchard:
So, just looking at that particular number, I think that’s one of the reasons why Skubal rates higher in my ratings. And then if you look at the three metric log this year, Urquidy of 57 percentile, 12 percentile, 52 percentile, 40 percentile and Skubal, it’s been mixed 38 percentile, 81st percentile, 71st percentile, 41 percentile. So, I think from a starting pitching standpoint, you do have an edge with Skubal, but you got to take a look also at the bullpens and this Detroit Tigers bullpen is not very good. I have them 23rd out of 30 teams. Offensively, I have them 21st out of 30 teams. So, I’ve got the Astros eighth out 30 teams. So for me, it’s a no play. There’s mixed signals. I think it’s priced about right. I’ve got the Astros at minus 128. I’m going to pass and I’ll root for TC to get another one with the Astros. I think you could just ride the Astros the whole year TC.
TC Martin:
Well, especially now and-
Mark Borchard:
He gets the call from Dusty Baker. This is what we’re doing tonight.
TC Martin:
No. And that’s the thing about… And Jeff made the point about not hitting lefties and that is really not the norm in the past because they usually do ban lefties, but they’re starting to come around now. Now Bregman, you had a three hit game the other day yesterday, and then now he’s coming alive. And again, the Astros pretty much are healthy, even though L2, they did tweak the groin yesterday. So, that’s a little concern for me, but you guys mentioned… I did not mention Urquidy in this game at all because, again, it’s not really, Urquidy that I’m playing here. I’m with you with Skubal. I think Skubal’s probably one of the better pitchers for the Tigers, but again, the Bullpen, I’m not a fan of offensively. I just think the Astros are starting to roll right now and the numbers back it up.
TC Martin:
If you look at the Astros over the last six, seven games, they’ve won three in a row. They’re putting it together and this is where they’re starting to play some very good baseball right now. So for me, I think there’s value in this price. So, I will take a shot with their offense today in really more of a shot against Detroit’s bullpen and being very tired. So, lock in with the Astros. We’ll see how it plays out today in Houston and Hermann Park, the Astros minus 159.
TC Martin:
Miami and San Diego, the next game on the docket. It’s Jose Luzardo going for Miami. Nick Martinez. We’ve talked a lot about him. We’ve done a lot of Nick Martinez bashing in the past. For the Padres, day baseball here, or actually early night baseball in San Diego and this game virtually a pick them Miami minus 106 Padres minus 104. Total in this game is seven slightly shaded to the under little breeze coming in tonight in San Diego, minus 115 under seven is that. Let’s go to Basewinner. Give us your thoughts on Miami and San Diego.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. I’m going to make a play on the Marlins. And I liked them a lot more when the line came out. I was able to get them over actually about noon yesterday at plus 130. And it’s gone all the way to Miami minus 103, which is where I have the game priced and so you say, “Well, Basewinner, if you got it priced at minus 103 and it is minus 103, why are you still making it a play?” Well, I found over the years that the plays that move towards the basewinner line have a better ROI for me personally. So, I’m going to stay on it. I’m really excited about Luzardo. Just from a stuff standpoint and we talked about stuff earlier in the show and talk about redoing his stuff. Now last year, he was in a 32nd percentile with his stuff and that measures fastball velocity, horizontal movement, vertical movement, the disparity between the two and amongst other things.
Mark Borchard:
And he was 32nd percentile last season, but now he’s in the 72nd percentile and he’s changed his shape of pitches on two of his main pitches. So, I’m really excited to see if he can continue to pitch like this. And if you look at the three metric chart, his away starts this year against the Angels on the 12th of April 78 percentile, and then against the Braves on the 24th of April and 93 percentile. So, there’s a lot to like about Luzardo, rolling the dice a little bit, playing the full game with the relief. Especially, after yesterday, it stings it Bender blew the save, but I don’t think he’s as bad as he looked yesterday. He’s rated pretty well in my… Pretty good in my bullpen ratings.
Mark Borchard:
I still have the Padres at 11th bullpen overall versus the Marlins’ 13th. And I’ve got the Marlins actually long term offensively a little bit better than the Padres. So, I don’t think there’s that much, that separates the other two main components of this game. So for me, it’s a huge starting pitching play. I haven’t even really mentioned Martinez, but he’s serviceable at best some 30 percentile outings at 24 percentile stuff plus and so I think we get a big edge here with Luzardo. And I think that still a good play at minus 103 TC.
TC Martin:
Jeff.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. So I had a question TC for you. I’m curious what you answer would be here. How much do you think Nick Martinez makes per year? What will he make this year?
TC Martin:
Nick Martinez. What should he be making or what he is?
Jeff Nadu:
What do you think he makes a year?
TC Martin:
I’m thinking Nick Martinez maybe makes four million a season.
Jeff Nadu:
Mark. What about you? How much do you think?
Mark Borchard:
That sounds about right.
Jeff Nadu:
I was blown away. He makes $6 million a year. I’m trying to understand. I found this out because there was a golf in Nick Martinez career where he disappeared from 2017 until this year and I looked into it and I said, “Who wasn’t in the minors, where the hell did this guy go?” And he went over to Korea and pitched for a while. And he was very average, got a $26 million contract. It pays guys to… Look some of these guys in baseball, they go down in the minor leagues and why they go there? I don’t know. I have no idea. Smart guy goes over to Asia, makes a good amount of money, comes back here and gets a good country. I don’t think Nick Martinez has worked that kind of money. You took about a guy over his career. Has there been anyone more average in baseball than Nick Martinez? Just not good. As Mark said, serviceable.
Mark Borchard:
At best. Yeah.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. At best. I’ve said before, I like the Marlins. I think they’re a plucky team. They’re tough. I like Luzardo. Padres don’t really hit lefties two up. But you know, the Padres sit quietly at 16 and nine, just an impressive season so far for them. I think they’re going to be one of those teams. You just get these serviceable outings and just find ways to win games. I don’t have much on this one. I agree with Mark that I like Miami a lot of the time. And I do like, Luzardo. I’m more surprised with Mark who goes on this ad campaign for how great Shane McClanahan is yet doesn’t play them today. Weird.
Mark Borchard:
Well I like Robbie Ray too. So, I have it priced at minus 133. So, you got to take a look at all the elements of the game, but I do love… I like Shane McClanahan. Guy’s a good pitcher. What else can we say?
TC Martin:
That game has underwritten all over. And I did look at that, but final thing on Martinez, Jeff. Yeah, he is 31 years old too. And think that’s one of the reasons too, because he’s veteran guy. So, for a guy who’s 31, probably on the low end of the scale of money. But he shouldn’t even be mak-
Jeff Nadu:
You can make a little bit more money than being here. I don’t know. Just… That’d make a lot of sense to me.
TC Martin:
Okay. Good stuff. All right, let’s go to the questions. You got questions hit us in the chat room here and we’ll get you. Darrell’s got a question. He’s going, “Who do we like, is it underdog today?” Is it maybe the Red Sox? The Tigers? We just talked about the Marlins or is it The Nationals? Any one of those games guys, trick your trigger a little bit as far as like firing on the dog?
Mark Borchard:
Red Sox, Nationals or Tigers.
TC Martin:
Let’s look at this. So, you got the Angels versus the Red Sox. So Tony’s going for the Angels today. Real quick. Any thoughts? Do we like the Red Sox against Otani?
Mark Borchard:
I like the Angels.
TC Martin:
I just think with Chill.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. I like the Angels versus the Red Sox there. The dog that has best value from a pricing standpoint are the Reds. Can you play the Reds? I don’t know. Maybe… I think everybody probably has that same attitude right now. How can you play the Reds? So maybe that’s just because of that, you’re going to get value in the market. But I like green stuff. I think that Houser’s save a metric anomaly. He doesn’t score well by any of the metrics yet he’s winning games as you like to see TC. So, it’s kind of a save a metric mismatch for me for Greene versus Hauser, but, you’d have to play the Reds. So, that’s probably my best advice on who to play a dog. This-
Jeff Nadu:
I think the Angels, as Mark alluded to. You got Otani on the hill. I got a feeling they destroy Rich Hill today for some reason. Talking about team that crushes lefthanded pitching, they’re hitting over 270 and one of the highest marks in baseball against South Paul’s Rich Hill. Amazing. You’re not a strike out guy. He only has 11 strikeouts. Rich Hill, you talk about a guy that’s been around forever. How long has he been pitching? He’s 42 years old. I thought he was a little younger than that. My God! I get a feeling some of these guys… You’re not going to trout obviously, but I think the Angels might jump on him a little bit here at Green Momster today.
TC Martin:
Yeah. All right, guys. Let’s take a look at our best bets here for the days as we wrap things up on this Thursday and let’s go to the board. Jeff likes the Colorado Rock. He’s at home today to score over five and a half runs team total there. He’s going to take that wager. Basewinner’s going to get in the first five action with the Philadelphia Phillies lane 160. I’m going to take the Phillies in that game to the full game at minus 158. So we’ll both have action on that game. Both rooting for the Phils. Mark wants some early action. I’ll take action anytime. The bats get going here and then base winner also likes Miami… Like some Marlins at minus 106 today. And then also get on the Astros again to try to make it four in a row and beat the Tigers today. Tigers coming off that double header in Pittsburgh yesterday.
TC Martin:
So, those are our best bets. And remember, we invite you to join us every weekday right here on BetUs TV, the MLB show, where we diagnose the winners here for you and we also talk a little bit else about what is happening in Major League Baseball, like the low bating average like we talked about today.
Jeff Nadu:
Like the players in 1980 are better than the players in 2022.
TC Martin:
According to Mark Borchard, there you go.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. 1980. I think those guys are elite compared to today’s players.
Mark Borchard:
Again, I’ve never got into what is this guy going to do in this era? And that’s… has always driven me crazy about because-
Jeff Nadu:
He wouldn’t do anything because this air’s better.
Mark Borchard:
Is LeBron James better than Will Chamberlain? Let’s stop all that nonsense.
Jeff Nadu:
But he-
Mark Borchard:
Different air and all that nonsense.
Jeff Nadu:
But Mark, he is right in the fact that there are no hitters like Tony Gwen, and guys like that. They just aren’t.
Jeff Nadu:
I see, I know what you’re saying, comparatively. Like compared to the league. There’s not this standout.
TC Martin:
Guys that hit 320, 330, 340. They are not there.
Mark Borchard:
About one Soto I could make not-
TC Martin:
Yeah. They’re not there.
Mark Borchard:
One Soto’s pretty good.
Jeff Nadu:
I remember as a kid, I would watch Tony Gwen. It would be masterful watching him play. Just the way he hit it was incredible. They don’t make… Even… And I’ll tell you this, Mark, this is where I disagree with you. When I’m a kid. I’m 12, 14 years old. Watching guys like Ken Griffey, Barry Bonds, Tony Gwen. I’ll be honest, man. You have occasionally a couple of guys like that in baseball left, but I got to tell you, I was way more enamored with baseball back then than I am now. I’m just being honest.
Mark Borchard:
You got stars. You got Soto, Harper.
Jeff Nadu:
But I don’t enjoy. What I’m saying is, I don’t have… To me, baseball is just a mystique at this point. It’s not the same mystique as when I was a kid. I look at it now really…. I thoroughly enjoy football. I thoroughly enjoy basketball without gambling on it. Now for baseball for me, I’ve lost money this year, but it really… I don’t sit there and watch baseball as an enjoyment. Again, we talk about that a couple of days ago, and I think a lot of people have lost interest in it, but, I don’t think it’s made like it used to be.
TC Martin:
Right guys, great discussion today. And again, you can go back and-
Mark Borchard:
Jeff says he’s not into analytics, but he brought it today. He brought some hard hit ball contact. He brought some splits stuff versus left. He brought some analytics today. So man, he does site analytics.
Jeff Nadu:
Well, I still don’t know what-
Mark Borchard:
Analytics are omnipresent, Jeff.
Jeff Nadu:
I still don’t know what the hell’s stuff plus is, whatever.
Mark Borchard:
It’s super interesting. It’s really neat.
TC Martin:
Just watched some Moneyball. He watched Moneyball last night just to get caught up with some of the terminologies.
Jeff Nadu:
I’m trying to think… No… Did I watch last night? I’m trying to remember. Oh no, I’m on this-
TC Martin:
Somebody that got murdered or something like that.
Jeff Nadu:
I’m on the first 48 kick. I watch that all the time now. I didn’t watch a movie last night, but I’ve never seen Moneyball. I have to watch it.
TC Martin:
You got to watch it then, then you can compare mark to a Jonah Hill’s character.
Jeff Nadu:
Well, I’m just going to say they’re something about watching two hours about the Oakland Athletics doesn’t seem that interesting to me at all. I don’t know. But we’ll see.
TC Martin:
All right guys, have a good one. We will reconvene tomorrow at 12 noon Eastern. Remember like, and subscribe to the channel. Like and subscribe to the show so you get those notifications and the numbers have been fantastic. The reviews have been great. We appreciate everyone for listening. Make sure you spread the word. Tell your friends and join us Monday through Friday 12 noon Eastern right here on BetUS TV, MLB show TC Martin for Mark Borchard, the base winner and Jeff Nadu. We will see you tomorrow. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website.
