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TC:

And a good Tuesday… Talking about… [inaudible 00:00:13] coming to us. And of [inaudible 00:00:23]. Okay.

Mark:

Well, Jeff, I don’t know about you, but I’m happy to be here. We’ve got the first, it’s the first Tuesday full card for me. 15 games on the card. I’m excited about it. I think there’s a couple really good plays here on the card, and gosh, I can hardly wait to dig into this thing.

TC:

All right, guys. Well… Look at… Full card of games coming your way on… A lot of fifth start… Pitchers that many people might… Major League Baseball season. But again, [inaudible 00:01:23] are here. Join us each and every day. We’ll get your notifications when we come to you live here, so. Are we having some technical difficulties, guys? Because I’m…

Speaker 5:

Yeah. [inaudible 00:01:43].

TC:

Okay. So what do you want to do here? Okay. Okay. All right. So, Mark let’s… [inaudible 00:02:01] and the Marlins. Sure enough.

Mark:

So I got Angels and Marlins, and so I’ll take a deep dive into this game as Jeff and TC kind of work through the audio issues, and hopefully by the time I get done with it, they’ll have things set up. But basically, you know, it was a challenging game to handicap. I can just tell you what the baseball winner line spit out. And this is with Mike trout in the lineup. I’ve got the thing priced at -238, and you can really get the Angels right now like -147, and the line’s actually moved towards the Marlins, and I think because of the news that Trout might be out of the lineup. But it kind of sets up a challenge as a handicapper, like what is a player valued if he gets out of the lineup? So you have to have a model, I think, that’s able to kind of plug in different players. Check our sportsbook.

Mark:

So, basically I did some lineup shuffling, took Trout out of the lineup, and it still came up with -198, so I think that’s a pretty good price still. I mean, obviously. I mean, it’s a big disparity between the odds market, even with Trout out of the lineup. So again, Trout in the lineup, -238, Trout out of the lineup, -198. And I am bullish on Patrick Sandoval. Got him with a BaseWinner starter rating of 75, meaning he’s going to suppress runs 25% greater than an average pitcher. Ranks him 21st out of 150 pitchers. And then Luzardo, I’m not like totally down on him. I’ve got him at a 98. He’s 92nd out of 150 pitchers.

Mark:

But we touched a little bit on the show yesterday about the disparity in the bullpens here, and it’s a big disparity. So basically, each player has a bullpen rating. So, there’s 150 starters. They each get, each player gets a bullpen rating. Miami’s Luzardo bullpen rating is 127th out of 150, where I really like the Angel’s bullpen. I have them fourth overall. The individual bullpen rating for Patrick Sandoval, 19th out of 150. So, we get strength in the starter. We get strength in the bullpen. And then even with Trout out of the lineup, so I’m going to say he’s out of the lineup, Angels are 105. He’s in the lineup, they’re at 115. So either way, we’re at least even with the Marlins, and we just have such a huge advantage in the pitching department. Also, fielding, got the Angels ranked 3rd out of 30 teams, and Miami ranked 18th out of 30 teams. So, I hate to get so deep into that, but hopefully you guys get your audio back and we can go to the next one.

TC:

Okay. We appreciate that, Mark, and going back… [inaudible 00:04:54] just talking, their bats would bust out and they definitely did last night. And Mike-

Jeff:

His audio’s real messed up.

Mark:

Hey Jeff, can you hear me okay?

Jeff:

Yeah, I think we’ll, I think we may have to handle it here. His audio keeps going in and out. It’s been kind of going out since I started here, but all right. Here’s what we’ll do. Maybe I’ll just, until he can get back, I’ll handle hosting, maybe. You and I did it before, Mark.

Mark:

That sounds good.

Jeff:

Maybe I can do it again.

Mark:

That sounds good, Jeff. I really want to hear what you have to say about this Mets Phillies game because-

Jeff:

Yeah.

Mark:

I think it’s a cool matchup. I think Megill was really good in his last outing but I’m going to turn it over to you and you can talk about it, then I’ll let you know what I think about it.

Jeff:

Yeah. I really like this spot for the Mets and I’ll tell you why. As you mentioned it, Megill was really good in that first game, and I like the matchup here. Look, obviously going against Wheeler’s not easy. This is the go-to guy in this rotation. Phillies had a nice comeback win last night. But it’s funny. It was really a tale of two games here if you’re a fan of this team. This whole fan base, as they do in this town, was striking them down over the first seven or eight innings because they couldn’t get anything going. They were making errors. But they had a nice run late in the game, were able to win it.

Jeff:

But you know, when you look at some of the individual matchups for the Mets in this game, I kind of like where I’m sitting here against Wheeler. Peter Alonzo has been terrific over the years against Chris Wheeler. Obviously remember Wheeler was with the Mets at one point. Lindor hits him well. Nimmo hits him well. Dom Smith hits him well. J.D. Davis hits him well. This actually has some pretty good individual matchups for most of this lineup against Zack Wheeler. As we know as well, he’s probably only going to go 70, 75 pitches here. The goal tonight for the Mets is see some pitches, get his pitch count up, and the quicker we can get to a bullpen in the MLB, the better.

Jeff:

I like this matchup. I had this game, I played the Mets at 150. It’s down into the 130s at this point, so I know I’m getting the right side here in my opinion. Sharp should bet it down a little bit. I think the Phillies are a little kind of all over the place. And as we know, Mark, this team sucks from a fielding perspective. It almost came back to bite them last night. But I like this matchup against Wheeler. I’m going to fade him here.

Mark:

Yeah. I think if that’s the way, if you play this game, that’s the way you have to go. I have it priced, and I’m a big fan of Zack Wheeler, but you mentioned he’s on a pitch count and it gets into my bullpen rating that’s just really weak in this particular game, because they’re going to have to go deep into their bullpen. I don’t like the Philly’s bullpen as a rule, and I think that you’re going to get, for the Mets at least, you’re going to get a higher percentage of their top end guys. Megill was outstanding his last time out, and I have it priced at -127 for Philly. The fact that you got it at +150, you were ahead of the curve. That’s a good price, Jeff.

Jeff:

Yeah, I thought so too. I’ll tell you again, you know, I am always somewhat worried about the Phillies lineup. Obviously they have some big boppers there and that’s a small little ballpark. But Megill was great his first pitching start, obviously. It was against the Nationals. This is obviously a big step forward, but something tells me Megill is going to be one of those young guys that really kind of anchors this rotation with guys like deGrom out, so I’ll take a little value here. I think the Mets get back on the wheel today and get the job done. Do we have TC? Is he good or what?

TC:

I don’t know.

Jeff:

Yeah, we might have to just remove him for today. He keeps going in and out. It’s hard to maintain any consistency with it. Here’s what we’ll do. Mark, let’s kind of move on. I feel like we’ve talked about this one to death. Let’s move to the next matchup. Reds, and I’ll tell you what, you’ve been backing this Guardian group a lot. What are your thoughts here?

Mark:

Well, I don’t think you like the Guardian. Do you like? You don’t like the [crosstalk 00:08:39]?

Jeff:

No, I don’t like the Guardians, quite honestly. But I’ll tell you right now, I’ve looked pretty stupid because what have they put up? They put up 17 runs the one game and I think they put up some runs yesterday as well. 27 runs in a couple of games? Pretty good.

Mark:

So, this Steven Kwan, he’s a rookie. He bats out of the second slot. 82 pitches he’s faced without a swinging strike. And that’s just, I mean, from a numbers guy, that’s just an amazing stat. And I just, it’s jaw dropping to me how good this guy’s been able to see the ball. He only had a 2.7 swinging strike percentage last year in the minors. I think this guy’s a great find for Cleveland. But basically, let me tell you about my handicap for this game, because to me, Shane Bieber. Now, if you go to BetUS, you look at the AL Cy Young winner. Shane Bieber’s number two. He’s not priced as a number two Cy Young favorite in this game, in my opinion. I’ve got it priced at -141. You can get Cleveland at -114. I think that’s tremendous value.

Mark:

I’ve got Bieber BaseWinner starting number 67, 8th out of 150 pitchers. Mahle, I’m not like too down on. I’ve got him at an 86, and so that means he’s 57th out of 150 pitchers. I like the bullpen setup for Bieber here. 29th out of 150 bullpen setups. I’ve got the team bullpen better than the Cleveland team bullpen. 11th out of 30 teams. Cincinnati, 26th out of 30 teams. I do have Cincinnati a little bit of an edge offensively. I have them in this particular matchup with a 103 Weighted Runs Created Plus number. I’ve got Cleveland at a 98, but they’re both in the bottom, you know, 10 teams in baseball. I just think we have such a huge pitching disparity. I’m going to jump on Cleveland here.

Jeff:

You know, I guess the thing with Cleveland that I’m kind of like, as a handicapper I’m always looking at and saying that just doesn’t make sense. I get like this is a solid team. They’re scoring runs. They’ve got Bieber on the mound, yet it’s a flip. Why aren’t they a bigger favorite? It just kind of makes me wonder as a handicapper, and I always look at it and say I feel like I’m betting into a trap here. I have to wonder though, and I guess I’ll ask you. If Bieber is so efficient, why is this number where it is? Maybe, I mean, he only pitched four and two thirds against the Royals. You know, Guardian bullpen’s I guess average, but why is the number always where it is with this team? They seem to always be like a 115 favorite. Is that just the market doesn’t really know what they are? What is that?

Mark:

Yeah, I think it’s mispriced. I mean, the thing that I love about the way I model the games is that it all comes down to runs in the end. So, you have run suppression numbers for pitchers. You have run, runs scored numbers, runs created plus for offense, and it comes down to a run projection. So in my opinion, based on my model and based on really kind of looking at it subjectively even. I mean, you got the second favorite in the Cy Young race against Tyler Mahle. Mahle’s okay, but he’s not Shane Bieber.

Mark:

You know, Bieber’s last time out was pretty good as well. I’m going to just go over this, the advanced metrics of his last start. You got the expected strikeout percentage, 25%. He suppressed hard hits, 7.7. 10 is league average. That’s a good hard hit suppression number. Expected walk rate, 6.1%. And that was an 80 percentile start for Shane Bieber. So, you know, I didn’t get the money the last time. I know I played Bieber on opening day. Didn’t get the money, but I still like to start, and that’s one of the reasons, one of the many reasons, I’m backing him today.

Jeff:

Well, look, I guess at the end of the day, backing him is not the wrong thing to do. I guess there’s just some things as a handicapper you look at and you say, “That doesn’t make a lot of sense.” But hey, rock the, ride the Guardians, man. They’ve been good to you. They’ve been really good to I think a lot of people over the last couple of games. This offense has really jumped out. I guess we’ll have to see. You were right yesterday. I kind of called out the line in question yesterday. It didn’t matter. I guess we’ll see. I’m hearing a lot of background. It’s very hard to do the show like this.

Mark:

Yeah, that’s good. You’re working through it really good. Bottom line on this game, I think it’s a misprice. I’m going to roll with Bieber.

Jeff:

There you go. Hey, roll, rock with the Bieber fever, as you say.

Mark:

Yeah.

Jeff:

So, you’re going to rock-

Mark:

Bieber fever, dude.

Jeff:

You’re rocking two favorites today, one of which is not a real big favorite. Cleveland, and then the LA angels. You backed the Angels yesterday, too, so you’re backing two teams.

Mark:

I didn’t. I actually [crosstalk 00:13:15]-

Jeff:

Oh, you first five. Yeah.

Mark:

I backed the Marlins and I really want to bitch about something because it really made the game in the first five innings. So, this is what happens. Max Stassi, he has a full count and Elieser Hernández freezes him inside high. Pitch was inside the strike zone. It wasn’t even on the border touching the edges or anything. Freezes him inside, guy calls it a ball. And so for me, this is one of the most egregious things MLB has not done is to bring in a challenge on one of these strikes. It really, it changed the whole flow of that game last night. The pitch was obviously a strike. They called it a ball. You know, in tennis, you can get a challenge. It takes 15, 20 seconds to look at the line challenge. They make the thing and it’s done. So instead of ending that inning, which it would’ve done, it comes up to the next guy. First pitch, home run, three run homer, and just you’re in a hole right there.

Jeff:

We’ve talked about this time and time again. You know, really whether it’s baseball, whether it’s hoops, whether, whatever sport, really. We talked about it a lot on basketball shows where, you know, constantly the referees, umpires, officials make calls, affect these games. It’s a shame that whether you’re a fan, you’re a gambler, whatever, you have to not only depend on a variance, but you have to depend on these umpires or whoever making these bad decisions. You’re right. It’s a shame, and it happens way too much in sports.

Mark:

Well, Jeff, especially as something like this, where they have the technology. Don’t show it, then. If you guys, if it’s not reliable, don’t show it. Okay? But you have the technology. I think it’s very good. It’s really, you know, we’re talking about this 15 years ago and there were some errors in that box, but the technology’s there. It’s a strike. Everybody sees it’s a strike.

Jeff:

Yeah.

Mark:

Use it.

Jeff:

Uh-huh (affirmative). Couldn’t agree more.

Mark:

Come on, MLB. It’s 2022. Let’s go.

Jeff:

I agree. Do we have, is TC the host? Is he back?

TC:

Okay. Are you guys, can you hear me now?

Mark:

Oh, yeah. You’re coming in loud and clear, man.

TC:

Guys, sorry about…

Mark:

But not now.

Jeff:

All right. Guys, listen, let’s just remove him today. I think we’re having issues. It’s kind of driving the show a little bit haywire. Let’s do the last game here, Mark. I got to tell you the reason I didn’t put my play in for this is because for a while there was no line on this game. I had to wonder why. At BetUS for a long time last night, no line populated. In fact, you know, no market number was out until this morning. I have to wonder about that. You got the Houston Astros hosting, or the D-backs hosting the Houston Astros. Kind of that, you know, interesting matchup where you’ve got a big bopper lineup against a team in the Diamondbacks who’s pitching rotation, pitching staff isn’t good. We know Bumgarner’s really at the end of his career. His fastball’s topping out at like 91. It really has struggled.

Jeff:

Luis García, kind of an interesting guy, got a weird kind of delivery, but it works for him, and he’s able to kind of throw a cutter and some different pitches. It’s hard for me to go against the Astros against lefties. They’ve always been good against lefties. We obviously know Bumgarner’s near the end of his career. But, you know, the one pause you have is he’s still Bumgarner. He’s still maybe got that one game left where he can come in and mow down. I thought he was pretty good in game one. You have any thoughts on this game? What’d you think here?

Mark:

So you have Bumgarner in as a starter?

Jeff:

I do. Yeah.

Mark:

Okay. So, I have it priced with Zac Gallen, but Bumgarner’s worse. I’ve got it priced with Houston at -178-

Jeff:

Let me double check here.

Mark:

… and I’m really, I’m high on García. I’ve got him 15th ranked in baseball, or 15th ranked out of 150 starting pitchers. He’s got a 71 BaseWinner run suppressing number. I couldn’t tell you. I had Gallen in there. I had him at 103. I can tell you off the top of my head, bumgarner’s a 106, so it actually would be priced better. I mean, more in favor of Houston with Bumgarner on the hill, and just a huge disparity in offensive strength. Houston number six in baseball, Arizona 25th in baseball.

Jeff:

As we know, Houston the best offense in the league last year, I think with five and a half runs a game. Look, you can bank on the fact that they’re going to get 5, 6, 7 runs every game. And again, it’s enticing to face a guy like Bumgarner, who again is more towards the end of his career. I got a big lineup up here and I like the guy in García. García is a solid starter. You know, pretty good bullpen. I think 150 when you get the Astros. Look, early in the season, you’re not going to see these huge, huge numbers really not much at all, but I think that’s a pretty fair number on the Astros.

Mark:

Yeah, no, it’s good. I don’t know if you talked about the bullpen, but just a huge, huge advantage for the Houston bullpen over the D-backs. Yeah. I mean, I think -150 is quite affordable here, Jeff. I think it’s a good play.

Jeff:

Now, I will say the start of the year for baseball for me has not been good. I backed this clown show Brewer team a couple times. Let me just say something about the Milwaukee Brewers

Mark:

And I told you, I told you about that team when-

Jeff:

You’re right.

Mark:

… you bet Corbin Burnes on Thursday, I said, “I bet this damn team because I’ve”… Corbin Burnes would just, he would just throw so well, and these guys couldn’t score for him last year. And I’m like, “Gosh, I don’t know if I trust this Milwaukee offense. They’re 20th in baseball.” That’s kind of why I roll with the Dodgers [inaudible 00:18:31] to win that NL. Sorry. Sorry to jump in, but it pissed me off.

Jeff:

No, I think you’re… And look, the one knock when we were talking about the Brew crew was could this team hit? Look, right now they couldn’t hit a beach ball. You know, the ball wouldn’t go in the ocean if they were in a boat. I mean, this team sucks right now and they can’t hit, but I feel like I knew that. I don’t know why I tried to spin things. This team has chronic problems offensively, and it’s not going to get easier anytime soon. But that being said, when you back, and I know people have asked about, when do you back a run line team? Look, the truth is you shouldn’t back a run line if the team can’t hit. Okay? Because winning is going to be a problem, let alone winning by multiple runs.

Jeff:

The Astros are the types of teams. The Dodgers. Teams like that. That’s a very basic thought, but you know, in this kind of spot where you see a pitcher, they likely get 5, 6, 7 runs against a team that can’t hit in the D-backs, this is another good spot to take a run line. So, you know, I haven’t really done well with run lines, but I backed the same team twice who can’t hit. This is the kind of spot where maybe, Mark, maybe have some interest in a run line.

Mark:

Which game are you talking about on that, Jeff? Sorry.

Jeff:

Houston. Houston.

Mark:

Yeah. I think so. I mean, you can play all different kinds of ways. You know, it’s interesting that you like to play the run line just on the away team, and I thought that was an interesting way to handicap it. But it makes sense. I mean, you’re getting the team nine, you’re getting nine trips to the plate, or nine innings to the plate. Do you ever play run lines on the home team or is that just a set rule for you, Jeff?

Jeff:

No, I don’t. I mean, I want full nine at bats. You know, I don’t play that many run lines. I mean, it’s just, I guess for me, I don’t bet a lot of games in general in any sport. I kind of try to find a couple that I neutralize and keep my variance low. But, yeah, I think… You know, and a lot of the times I’ll just play a team total that way I can just focus on the one offense that I like and on a pitcher I don’t. I think in this spot though at five and a half with the Astros. Here’s the thing. If there’s a question on the Astros with me, it would be García. I don’t know that I love him. I think he’s a good pitcher. He’s a solid pitcher, but I also don’t like the Arizona offense. So, I think there’s a couple ways you could go here. But, yeah, for me I’d probably only play run lines on away teams just because I want to make sure I get that full nine at bat. So if the game’s four, three, you know, I’m going to enter the game in the ninth inning as the home team, I need an extra at bat to maybe get that extra run and, you know, it’s just better odds, obviously.

Mark:

Yeah. Well, occasionally I’ll play a run line. It’s rare. I think it needs to be modeled separately. I’ve got a model kind of in progress, so I might incorporate more run line play into my portfolio over the season. But occasionally I’ll play like a Dodger run line, and it’s kind of interesting as a handicapper, if, you know, you have a one run lead going into the top of the ninth with the home team on the run line and you’re rooting for that away team to tie the game so you can get another at bat, maybe get a two run homer in the bottom half of that inning. So it’s just kind of an interesting perspective when you bet that home team on the run line.

Jeff:

No, a hundred percent. No. I guess for me, I just don’t really want to be in that position where I have to kind of root against my bet just to have a shot to maybe win my bet with… I’ll just eliminate it and just focus on the team away. But for that being said, as far as that game, we talked about it. TC Martin going to rock with Houston here. I think it’s a solid play. I have no real issue with it. I feel like for me, I think this is where you have to be kind of a smart gambler. Sometimes you can’t just keep chasing and adding games. I really like the Mets. I’m going to just rock with that tonight. I do like Houston a little bit, but obviously I’m not faring well right now. I need to kind of take it slow here. But TC Martin going to rock with Houston. As far as all four games, though, we went over. I feel like maybe we missed some of it just because we had some of the issues earlier, but I got two play. I got one play, TC’s got a play. You got two plays. Let’s hit a couple of questions here. In fact, we’ve got some time. We don’t have TC today. Mark, what do you say we just quickly slot out every game here, maybe give an opinion. Maybe not every game but a couple of note.

Mark:

We could go, we could like rapid fire it.

Jeff:

There we go.

Mark:

You can go down the card. You can tell me your… Why don’t you go down the card, tell me what you like and I’ll give you the BaseWinner line.

Jeff:

Let’s do it. 4:12 Eastern, Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh. Obviously Pittsburgh sucks, but it’s rare you’re going to get a team facing Pittsburgh at this type of number. We know Pittsburgh’s not good. That being said, though, the Cubs aren’t much better. I didn’t have much here. Two lefties going against each other. Cubs at BetUS a 112 favorite.

Mark:

I’ve got it priced Chicago -133, and I [inaudible 00:23:27]… What was the price again that you were seeing?

Jeff:

  1. Little value.

Mark:

So it’s still a little bit value with the Cubs.

Jeff:

Yeah. I mean Drew Smyly always been, you know, a solid pitcher. He is never going to be a top two, three player for a team, but he’s a serviceable guy, a guy that can come in and give you some innings. I didn’t have much in this game. Ultimately it was a pass. Royals and Cardinals. We were supposed to see Hudson yesterday. Did this game get scratched yesterday?

Mark:

No. You know, I don’t know what they’re doing with their pitches, because I’ve got Lynch versus Hicks. That’s what I have as far as the matchup.

Jeff:

Yeah. This one’s all over the place. I didn’t ultimately play it anyway, so I’ll pass on it. I just want to hit a couple others. Question in the chat. Padres and Giants from Scott Doherty. Complete coin flip. Cobb against Darvish. Where are you at with Darvish? He’s kind of one of those guys that lost a step a little bit, possibly. You know, had a little tail off towards the end of last season. But, you know, it’s still Yu Darvish.

Mark:

Well, I’ve been criticized by baseball hipsters over the years on my take on Darvish, and for the most part, I’m always bullish on him and this year’s pretty much no exception. I have him rated 29th at 150 starting pitchers. BaseWinner run suppression number of 79. And then Cobb I like, too. Not as much as Darvish. I’ve got Cobb at a 90. He’s 66 out of 150 in baseball. You put it in the mixer, I think this is priced right where it needs to be. I’ve got the Padres -105 on the BaseWinner line.

Jeff:

I mean, I will say this. I mean, three and a half in a baseball game, not tough. I mean, we know this Padre line up pretty solid. They’ve scored three or more runs in the last three games. They’re four and one overall. It’s been a pretty good lineup. I got to be honest. I think the Padres win the game. They’ve been solid the start of the season. I like their rotation. But it is a tossup kind of game, and obviously you’ve kind of anchored that sentiment. But I’ll tell you one team that was, I actually backed the team that won last night, which I was happy about, Toronto Blue Jays. I ended up backing them late. I liked the Manoah Taillon matchup. Like Manoah. How about Manoah? He was terrific last night for Toronto. What’d he’d have, six scoreless? He was terrific against a big time lineup. I didn’t think the Blue Jays had it in them to shut a team out, but they did. Impressive win last night for Toronto. What do you think about [crosstalk 00:25:48]?

Mark:

Very impressive to shut out that Yankees offense, which I have is… I actually have these teams, interestingly enough, tied at third in baseball as far as their rankings go. So, it depends on, depending on the day, sometimes New York’s a little bit better, sometimes Toronto, but they’re 19% better than average, both offenses. So really, it comes down to, okay, well, the offenses are equal, so it comes down to, well, who’s better? Which starting pitcher’s better in this spot, and which bullpen’s better? I came to the conclusion based on my numbers that Kikuchi’s a little bit better starter. Have him 35th out of 150 pitchers, and I’ve got Cortes, I’m kind of high on him too. I’ve got him BaseWinner run number 92, 73rd out of 150 pitchers. So that would favor Toronto, but you look at the bullpens and I like the Yankees bullpen so much more than the Toronto bullpen .have the Yankees bullpen second in baseball, have Toronto 17th in baseball. So you put it in the mixer, I’ve got it -117, it’s priced at -111. I think that’s a pretty fair price. I’m going to stay away from it, Jeff.

Jeff:

Yeah, here’s what I’ll do. Sometimes where… Look, I’m not a big Nestor Cortes guy. I’ll tell you what I am big on though is this Yankee lineup against Kikuchi. I think Kikuchi sucks, quite honestly. His x velocity is terrible. They’ve got a lot of lefties. They hit lefties well, this Yankee lineup. I like this spot for this Yankee offense. As we know, this is not a bullpen that I’m real interested in after Kikuchi. That being said, we saw a Yankee lineup struggle yesterday. I don’t think they struggle today. I think they bounce back. It’s rare you’re going to get a four and a half on a team total for the home field Yankees. Remember, that building is a joke as far as distance. I mean, I saw Stanton hit a home run the other night. It looked like a double. It flied into the seats. I love that lineup, especially when I can get a team under five with the Yankees. I’ll gladly back them to bounce back here. In fact, you know what? I can’t say it, but F it. I’m going to play this.

Mark:

Hold on. Hold on.

Jeff:

What do you got? What do you got?

Mark:

I got, well, no, you can play it. You’re right. You’re absolutely right about his hard hit per nine. That was last year from June on. That was in the 16th percentile, so you’re dead on on his hard hit per nine. But his expected strikeout percentage, 26th, 81st percentile, and then is his control, well, his control about mid. So, I don’t know. I don’t like the hard hit per nine. I don’t think it correlates as much, but I can see where you’re going with it. You know, if you think that hard hit per nine’s going to continue. I mean, look who they’re playing. Really?

Jeff:

Yeah. Listen, there’s a couple of things that are working. Look, the strikeouts or the Yankees are concerning. I mean, you either get, you know, this is Stanton. He’ll be one for five. One will be a home run and he’ll have four strikeouts. So, yeah, it’s concerning, but again, against lefties, against some of his x velocity problems. And look, as we know early in the season, Mark, I mean, you just don’t see pitchers go deep in games. I’m probably going to get that bullpen for four innings here. So, you know, at four and a half, look, if it’s five and a half, I’m not going to get it. But I think the Yankees can get the five runs here. I’m going to back them here to bounce back off a bad game.

Jeff:

Now, someone in the chat’s asking that, do I have any auto plays? Look, we’re very early, Michael, so I don’t know if I have any auto plays just yet. We’re still only a couple of games into the season, but he’s asking me, I had auto plays like team total unders in basketball. Well, look, basketball’s a whole lot different than baseball. We only have, what, 30ish teams. In basketball we have 358, so there’s a lot more that I can cover, but I’m sure we’ll get some auto plays.

Mark:

What is an auto play?

Jeff:

An auto play is something that you play.

Mark:

Is that something you get in your car and do, or?

Jeff:

No, no, no. An auto play [crosstalk 00:29:46]-

Mark:

Speaking of cars, I’ll let you answer that. I want to know what kind of car you bought by the end of the show, though.

Jeff:

Yeah. So an auto play is basically something that you would continuously bet every year, every game. So for instance, Mark, there was a team in college basketball, IUPUI, Indiana University, you know, Purdue Indianapolis. Little school.

Mark:

There you go. You got it. Yep.

Jeff:

Yeah. They were quite honestly the worst basketball offense I’ve ever seen. I mean, they just couldn’t score. I mean, constantly they were in the 40s. They were just dreadful, and bookmakers kept putting their team totals like in the mid 50s, and it was just continuously hitting and automatically there were three or four teams that kind of fell into this and we just started betting it. Yeah, I think over the years you find pitchers or you just keep fading. I will say, if I can get a Yankees team total at four and a half, I’m likely going to play it, especially against lefties, but that’s an auto play.

Jeff:

I think a lot of the time you can find these situations where, you know, look, six, seven times out of ten, they’re going to hit. Across a whole season, you’re going to make money backing it. All right. Michael [inaudible 00:30:52]. Can each of you give us a starting pitcher you think that’s undervalued that you think is worth backing in the season early before the handicapping catches up to them? Mark, you’re a baseball mind. Can you go off the top of your head? Who’s a pitcher you love that people aren’t very high on that you can make money on?

Mark:

Well, I can just, I can tell you two on the card today that I have rated probably a lot better than the market does, and the first one’s Bieber. It’s game two, I’ve already bet them twice. So, I don’t think the market loves Shane Bieber as much as I do. There’s another picture on today’s card, Matt Brash. Perhaps my rating may be brash, but I have him at a 90, which is 10% better than the average pitcher. If you look at this game, he’s going up against Velasquez for the White Socks and I’ve got it priced Seattle favored at -115. You can get plus money on Seattle. I think that’s a pretty good opportunity to go with this Matt Brash.

Jeff:

I’ll go Manoah, the kid I mentioned earlier for Toronto. You know, a lot of good words coming out of Montoya, the manager. Just talked about his overall just feel. You know, he seems confident, a lot of finesse there. Doesn’t really panic. Just, you know, throws some really good pitches, has a high end fastball. Nice change up. I like what I’ve seen from this kid. That was impressive last night. One hit over six innings against the Yankees? You know, look, it’s all or nothing sometimes with the Yankees, and that’s the concern backing them here, but I think the guy’s legit. Look, we saw yesterday. He was a dog. I mean, it’s not like he was a dog. I mean, it’s Jameson Taillon on the mound. Look, he’s going to be a dog against the Yankees, but I think he’ll still get some pretty decent prices. Look, a lot of people like Toronto. They know the capabilities of that lineup. But he’s a pretty solid pitcher that no one really is going to bring up. I like the-

Mark:

Good granular stats on that start yesterday, too. Expected strikeout percentage 26.5 with 75th percentile, and then his hard hit per nine was good yesterday. He only allowed six hard hits per nine. That’s an 85 percentile. So, two good metrics from that 3M chart. He did have some control issues within his pitches. Balls divided by pitches, 41.6%, puts him in the 14th percentile. But other than that, the start was outstanding yesterday. So if they can get that kind of production from Manoah, they’re going to be tough, because they’ve got Gausman, Berríos. They’re a tough rotation, Jeff.

Jeff:

Yeah, a hundred percent. As far as one question I have for you, Mark, some of the people are indicating in the chat you mentioned Brash. You’re a fan of him. He’s going today. You mentioned yesterday you didn’t really like the Mariners. What do you think today? They got the White Sox. What do you think? Vinny Velasquez, I know about him from his time in Philadelphia. Let me tell you right now, Vincent Velasquez blows. Okay? I’m going to tell you that. I don’t know if the change of scenery held.

Mark:

He had like a couple spots where you’re like, “Well, maybe this guy can turn it around,” but like his last few starts in Philly were not good.

Jeff:

Yeah.

Mark:

And so I guess that’s probably one of the reasons that he left. I guess he couldn’t handle the Philly fans here. You guys booed Santa Claus. That’s that’s what they tell me.

Jeff:

Well, yeah. There’s also rumors that we threw snowballs, but remember… I mean, that being said, that story’s a little blown out of proportion. Just to set the stage, it was a high end Eagle game. It was snowing profusely. The game was way out of reach and fans got bored and just started throwing snow around, and some of it happened to hit Santa Claus. It’s not like they were just really pissed off and took it out on Santa. It wasn’t really like that. But, yes, fans here are a little bit brash if we could use that term again, but-

Mark:

Here we go. Let’s move that. Let’s work that into this game here.

Jeff:

But Vincent Velasquez sucks. I mean, his career numbers suck. He sucks. He’s sucked for a while and I don’t think he’s going to be any better, but.

Mark:

I think there’s worse pitchers in baseball, but I have him at 110 out of 150 starting pitchers. The price I have for this game, Seattle should be at -115, and when I checked before the show, you could get plus money on Seattle, so I think you play Seattle here. I think it’s probably a good play.

Jeff:

Yeah. I kind of agree with you there. I want to thank the chat. We’re continuing to build numbers. Listen, it’s hard to go from show to show to show. We started this show. We even had some tech issues. We’re here. You see the live numbers creeping up each show. Remember, we’re here every day, Monday through Friday, 12:00 Eastern. We’re going to have some fun. I bring more of a kind of traditional handicapping sense. Mark brings more of the analytical numbers approach, [inaudible 00:35:39] metrics, and I’m sure TC will slot in kind of in the middle. But we’re going to be here all summer. It’s a dog day show. It gets tough at times. I’m obviously in a little bit of a tough spot right now, but you keep moving forward. You’re going to get into those grooves, and we thank some of the loyal people for following us over here with baseball. You know, it’s maybe not going to initially be as popular as like late season college basketball or something like that, but we thank you for being there. Make sure you hit the like button if you’re new around here. Make sure you subscribe.

Mark:

Yeah. Yeah. I echo that. Subscribe guys. You know, one of the cool things about this show and you really don’t get this in a lot of spots because you just, you can’t really join in a lot of spots. So if you guys have quite about particular numbers, particular players, I welcome you. I mean, I want to dig into these numbers with you guys, and so I appreciate the opportunity to talk about these numbers because, you know, that’s really what powers this game. I think, you know, you talk about a lot of different sports, but when you look at baseball, you can’t get better stats than baseball. I mean, it’s the best statistical game there is. So, I’m looking forward to sharing all of the stats, all of my numbers with you guys, and you know, I’ll go as deep as you guys want me to go.

Jeff:

We mentioned kind of some of the issues, Mark, with Philadelphia and some of the discrepancies this fan base seems to have. One hot button topic this morning here in Philadelphia is just a laughable comment by third baseman Alec Bohm, who, by the way, had three errors in the first four innings of that game last night. He’s on camera as quote, saying, “I effin’ hate this place” after they booed him. I’ll tell you right now, that is not going well for him here in this town.

Mark:

That’s not going to fly, man.

Jeff:

No.

Mark:

The Philly fans are hardcore. I told you, I’m married to, my wife is from Philly. My father-in-law, just a great sports fan, and that’s not going to play well. That’s not going to play well for them, and I’m sure it’s not going to play well in Philly, Jeff.

Jeff:

No, it isn’t, and they’re calling for him today. He apologized for his comment after the game. Look, the truth of the matter is, it’s one of those things you-

Mark:

That’s terrible. How can you say that in Philly? That guy’s gone. Dead man walking.

Jeff:

Well, but it’s one of those things you say where it’s like, you can’t really pull it back. I mean, look, if someone says they heard you say it, it’s like, well, whatever. But look, I talk about the mafia, Mark, and one thing Rudy Giuliani always said when he was going against the mafia, you can’t cross examine a wire tap. It’s your voice. It’s your saying it. There’s very little criminal defense you have on that. In this case for Mr. Bohm, there’s very little evidence to go against it. We saw his lips say what he said. He seems to be down in a bad place right now and he can’t really walk it back.

Jeff:

I remember years ago, Jimmy Rollins. Look, as beloved as Jimmy Rollins was in this town, I remember there was a game where the Phillies, they were in a rut. They were struggling. I remember Jimmy Rollins did not run out a ground ball. He heard about that for weeks. There’s one thing you could say about this town. They’re passionate. They know the game. They’re going to get on you, though, when you don’t give the effort. That’s why people like Allen Iverson were so beloved here, because Allen, regardless of who he was off the court, you knew that even if he was drunk the night before hanging with strippers at the Tropicana in Atlantic city, he was going to come back and give you 30 against the lowly Jazz or the Sonics that night. So, you know, you can’t do stuff like this in Philadelphia. Bohm’s going to have issues because this fielding stuff, it seems like a problem for him.

Mark:

Yeah, no, you’re absolutely right as far as the intensity, the passion of Philly sports fan. I can’t even watch an Eagles game. I can’t even be in the same room as my wife and my father-in-law. The intensity level. My gosh.

Jeff:

Yeah. It’s real fun. And you know, I’ll tell you, someday you’ll have to come to a game here. It’s terrific. But just to sweep kind of the Bohm stuff up here. You know, is that something where you look at it as a manager, right? Like I was talking with a friend of mine last night. He calls me, he says, “Why is he in this game? You obviously have a lefty on the mound. He’s going to be targeted. Balls are going to be hit to him. Why is Bohm in the lineup? Why didn’t Bryson Stott play at third base?” If you’re Joe Girardi, that’s just bad managing. Why was he in at third base?

Mark:

Well, I think they’ve got some different options there and I think we might see a little bit more of Stott. I know that there’s a couple guys down at the AAA level, too. I just, I don’t really see, like you make a comment like that, I don’t see him. I think we might see a trade pretty soon here, Jeff.

Jeff:

We’ll have to see. It’s going to be an interesting kind of a couple of a week or so. One final question before we go. This is actually a pretty good question. Northbound Trade says, “Great show. Thanks. If no time today, maybe tomorrow. Any quick advice about jumping on lines right away when they first get posted on the apps the night before?” Well, look, that’s really something that’s a hot button point of contention. Now look, in baseball you obviously you have scratches and things of that nature, but look, I did it with the Mets today. I get a better line. Listen, generally, when you look at a line and you’ve done this for a long enough time, you can understand which lines aren’t good and which lines are.

Jeff:

You know, generally if it looks good to be true and it’s probably going to move, it probably will. You know, there are games in college, for instance, that’s kind of my strong suit. You know, college football’s a lot different because I only really in the beginning of the season bet early, because I want to get on big favorites. Now the old adage is if you bet favorites, you obviously want to get in early for the most part, because generally the betting public’s going to move a favorite up. If you want a dog, generally you wait because you’re going to get a better price. What are your thoughts on betting overnight, Mark?

Mark:

Yeah, I think you have to, especially if you’re beating the line, consistently beating the line.

Jeff:

Sure.

Mark:

One of the things that I’ve tracked over the years, over eight years and close to 8,000 games is how often that my plays beat the line, and it’s pretty close to 70%. So, I think that for me, I’m doing myself a disservice to my followers if I don’t put them out early. So, I try to get a… You know, it’s hard to, once you get the line to get them out, for years it was 2:00 PM Pacific the day before. But, it’s really hard. It’s tough as a handicapper, because I mean, you’ve got to be able to with agility get the lines in there, make the decision and send it out. So I think this year I’m going to go, I don’t think I’m going to lose too much if I send it out at 5:00 PM.

Mark:

But one of the things I think that’s beneficial since we’re on this subject is the time of the show. While we might lose some line movement, at least for me personally, I’ve found that my games that where the line moves towards the BaseWinner numbers, so I’m ahead of the line, those have a higher winning percentage that my games where I priced it and it moves away from the BaseWinner line. So, I think that’s advantageous as a listener to this show to say, “Whoa. You know, you had it.” Like it didn’t move, this particular line for Cleveland didn’t move. But let’s say that I have a game priced at -141, the overnight lines -110, and by the time of the show it’s -127. To me, that’s a stronger play, even at that number, -127. If that makes sense, Jeff.

Jeff:

Good stuff. Yeah. Always good to kind of go over some of that stuff, and it’s interesting to see how you kind of look at it. Real quick before we get to best bets. Shohei Ohtani, Mark, 3 for 21 to open the season. Are you worried?

Mark:

No, not at all. The guy’s really, he’s a great player. I don’t really make too many, unless there’s an injury, I don’t make too many early season adjustments to my batting ratings. I’m playing against him in the AL MVP market, but we can go over that in another show because that’s actually probably 5 or 10 minutes of discussion.

Jeff:

For sure, and I saw him giving life support to the bat last tonight. It was kind of a funny moment. Some of the Asian broadcasts picked it up and posted it. I’ll tell you this. I feel his pain, because I’ll tell you what, Mark, you know, last couple games of college hoops, the NBA, MLB. I have had a rough run the last couple of weeks in sports betting. It definitely sucks. So I get where he is coming from, but let’s get to the best bets tonight. We can change it. Let’s show our best MLB betting. I am going to go with the New York Mets at +133. I’m also going to show ad the Yankees team total over four and a half against the Blue Jays. TC Martin who had some issues technically is going to go with Houston on the money lines. He’s going to lay the price to take care of the D-backs. I think that’s a good play. Mark, you’re going to go with Cleveland, the Guardians who you’ve backed recently, and the LA Angels. You’re not worried about Ohtani. You’re going to lay the 145. Couple of best bets there.

Mark:

I’m not worried about Ohtani, and I’m not worried even if Trout’s out of the lineup, because he had a stomach bug last night. Even if he’s out of the lineup, we still get value. So if he’s back in the lineup, it’s super value.

Jeff:

Very good, very good. As always, folks, we appreciate you fighting through the technical issues with us. Remember, this show is free every day. The one ask that we have, it’s that you hit the like button. Let us know what you think at the comments below, and if you’re new around here, you subscribe. We’ll be here all day, every day, five days a week, 12:00 Eastern. Not all day. 12:00 Eastern, breaking it down on the diamond. I am Jeff Nadu. He is BaseWinner. We’ll see you tomorrow here on the MLB show on BetUS.

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