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TC Martin:

And welcome aboard to this Tuesday afternoon, TC Martin live from Las Vegas and you are on The MLB Show here on BetUS TV. Glad to have you with us. As you know, we’re here every Monday through Friday at 12:00 noon Eastern and 9:00 Pacific. I got my trustee handicappers here today, Jeff Nadu has a day off a day so we bring in a relief pitcher and that is Eric Smades who is a New Jersey guy from New York. He’s going to join us today. Eric, how are you doing my man?

Eric Smades:

I’m doing well. Thanks for having me, guys.

TC Martin:

All right. And then, of course, our analytical guru hanging out there in the beautiful Palm trees of Scottsdale Arizona just counting his money from last night, the one and only Mark Borchard, AKA the Basewinner-winner from last night. What’s going on brother?

Mark Borchard:

That was a nice night. That Mets game, you almost had it coming, I did. I had it counted as a loss and it turned into a win. They kind of came back from the dead. So I think it’s really important when you’re a baseball batter to remember those things, because there’s going to be times when it’s going to go the opposite way. So people tend to remember the bad bits, but they don’t remember the good bits and this was a good bit. So it was a great day, I guessed right about the Milwaukee bullpen not using Hader and Williams and it was a tough call for me, but I made the right call a bit in that five inning, so that was good. So I’m pumped up and ready to rock this 15 game card, TC.

TC Martin:

Yeah. We got a full docket and like we talked about before, Tuesdays is one of my favorite days because you have everyone in action, you have a lot of fresh teams, a lot of fresh players. Everyone’s going to pretty much get their A lineup in. So we’ll look forward to that when we’re handicapping the game, but you bring up a good point there, Mark. Yesterday on the show, we talked about you and I both liked the Milwaukee Brewers in that game yesterday and it went very well for you. You handicapped it perfectly, my man, when you said the first five innings, and obviously I was on the Brewers, the full game, and that was one of these rare times where I was totally feeling the pain here and I wish I was on your side at the first five, because when you handicap a game like that, we handicapped it perfectly.

TC Martin:

When you got Burnes going and you figure that he’s going to roll all the way through and sure enough, he did, so you got the money after the first five, I’m hanging on a little bit, got a one-nothing lead late, and then here comes Craig Counsell deciding to lift Burnes, and here comes the Milwaukee bullpen and the Giants got to them late. It’s just one of those frustrating things when you’re batting baseball, that you handicap a pitcher and let’s face it, we are MLB betting on starting pitchers. That’s why the line is adjusted the way it is. Unlike any other sport, you don’t get that in basketball, you don’t get that in a football. The pitcher is the most important thing and affects the line the most. And then when you’re going and you’re rolling basically through seven innings and you handicap it perfectly that, it frustrates you.

TC Martin:

And then with that Mets game, you’re talking about same thing. It’s Max Scherzer, you’ll love Max. And then all of a sudden you feel bad for them because they’re not getting any run support. And then the Cardinals take a 2-0 lead. And then you think, okay, wow, what a wasted selection. This was on Mad Max. And then lo and behold, like you guys mentioned, you get the miracle Mets comeback late in the extra innings and you get the victory. So this is the crazy wacky world of baseball. And I guess, this is why we love it, but this is why sometimes we can hate it as well too.

Eric Smades:

Absolutely. Like Basewinner was saying, remembering these games is the most important, not just checking the box score the next day. That’s why I watch a ton of games and there’s nothing better than flipping around listening to all the local broadcasters. They can give you more information on these teams in 20 minutes than you can researching.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Crazy day of baseball. All right guys, before we get into today’s selections, let’s take a look at the record board as we go to that. Like I said, couple hard losers yesterday with Milwaukee and the Houston Astros for me yesterday. So puts me at 13 and 9 there, Jeff said 8 and 10, Basewinner 15 and 12. Basewinner came up with a real nice 2-0 day yesterday. Had those Brewers in the first five for the victory and then got the Mets there with the wild rally late in that game as they defeated the Cardinals yesterday too. So a nice job there. And also Jeff had a nice winner yesterday too with the Colorado Philadelphia game, over eight and a half that we talked about yesterday too, as well. So overall pretty good day yesterday. All right.

TC Martin:

As we look ahead at today’s game, like you mentioned Mark, we’ve got 15 games on the docket today. We’re going to take a look at six of these games and without further ado, let’s dive into it and go get it right away. Seattle is taking on Tampa Bay. It’s the Mariners and the Rays and the Rays are $1.22 favorite at the juice box there at Tropicana Field. If you like Seattle you’re getting plus 112 on the buy back there a very low total at only seven in this game, slightly shaded to the over in this one. You have Logan Gilbert going for Seattle. You got Matt Weisler going for Tampa Bay. Basewinner start us off here and tell us who you like and why.

Mark Borchard:

Well, I’m going to go with Seattle here. And it’s a play kind of on Logan Gilbert. I have him 46 out of 150 pitchers in baseball, have him with a run suppression number of 13%. But what’s surprising is the Mariner’s offense. And we talked about this last week and I’m high on the Mariners’ offense and Jeff’s not so much, and they’ve really performed well year to date. If you look at their weighted runs created plus, they’re actually number one in baseball. So that’s pretty surprising. I don’t think a lot of people would’ve thought that after, I guess, 16 games in, we’re almost a 10th of the way here through the season, that the Mariners would be number one in baseball with a 127 weighted runs created plus.

Mark Borchard:

But Gilbert, I kind of missed with him last year. I kind of missed his breakout. I’ve played against him a lot last year, but I’ve kind of switched sides and I’m going to back to the Mariners. I’ve got it priced at minus 116. So I think if you’re getting plus 100, it’s a good play. And the other thing, I think that the Tampa Bay bullpens really good, but the way this shapes up for Gilbert and Seattle, I kind of have him about equal in this game from a run suppression standpoint. And one more thing, stuff plus Logan Gilbert has a 25% advantage over Wisler in stuff plus. So for all those reasons, I’m going to roll with Seattle here.

TC Martin:

This is kind of a tricky game for me. Gilbert definitely has been Seattle’s best pitcher so far this year, he’s gone back to back at games about giving up a earned run, but then I go back and I look at what he has done against Tampa Bay going back last year. And he gave up seven earned runs in two starts last year. And so that’s a little concerning for me. And again, I do like the Seattle Bats, you’ve talked about Mark before, Tampa Bay is one of those teams that they should it be better than they are right now. But Gilbert, I’m not as high on him as you are, but the recent numbers, if we go by what he’s done so far this year, it’s looking pretty good. But every time I look at a pitcher against what he’s done against the opponent, I take that in consideration. So I couldn’t have any action on this game, but will definitely root you on with that. Eric, give us some thoughts on this game.

Eric Smades:

I’m in the same way with Gilbert. I’m not sold a hundred percent yet. He’s got a much higher ER on the road too, and Fleming’s going to be coming in after Wisler. So he’s been great coming in as that second guy. I don’t love the three and a halves on the first fives usually, unders wise, but I’m going to go ahead and do that, I’m going to go first five under three and a half minus 105. I think we see a good adding from Gilbert at least early, maybe two, one type of situation. And like I said, Fleming coming off the bench is exponentially better than when he starts. And I think we’re getting him right after Wisler.

TC Martin:

Yeah. And I like where you’re going with this Mark because I am not a fan of Kevin Cash and the opener, and that’s what we’re getting today with Wisler. We’re getting the opener, which just makes me sick. I cannot handicap a team, I will not bet on a team that goes with the opener, because you’re immediately in the bullpen. It’s funny. You’re the analytical guy, Mark, I’m very curious because we’ve never really talked about this before, about the theory and the analytical gurus that enjoy starting your game out with a bullpen guy.

Mark Borchard:

Well, there’s a lot to it actually. I think that the studies have shown that the less or the more the batter faces the pitcher, the less likely they are to have productive offensive performance. So that’s why they don’t want these guys to go three times through the lineup, because it bears out in a numbers. So it makes sense from a numbers standpoint. I tell you what, it’s a real bitch to handicap and you have to have separate bullpen numbers. So you have to have a bullpen day for Tampa Bay. Kind of the way I handicapped this is I kind of group Wisler and Fleming together and come up with a combo number for these guys. But it makes sense from a number standpoint, that’s why these teams are doing it.

Mark Borchard:

And that’s why I like a team like Tampa Bay, which doesn’t have the same type of payroll as the Yankees. They almost are forced to do it and it’s smart, it’s really smart. But again, it’s just one step. And so I agree with you TC that when you see it’s, I don’t want to handicap this because you have to break it down onto a different level. And so unfortunately what I do is I put the whole card out and so I had to come up with a method to do this. And I think it was three or four years ago where I was okay like, I got bullpen day, I’ve got a Whistler Fleming number. And so that’s kind of how you do it, but you got to really be on your toes.

Mark Borchard:

And I’m really lucky. I want to give a shout out to my good friend Guido, who’s been working for us for years. He does all the lineup adjustments, the defaults, the starting pitchers. And so that’s one less step that I have to take. And it really is kind of a good thing that we have separation so he’s able to do that. So thanks Guido, I really appreciate it. So hope that answered your question TC.

TC Martin:

Absolutely. And shout out to Guido as well too. Anytime I hear Guido I’m thinking that a there’s a pizzeria around the corner or something like that.

Mark Borchard:

He’s a good guy. He came to us about 10 years ago because… I put the card out overnight and so invariably there’s going to be a pitching change. And so we weren’t as on top of it as he wanted us to be so he’s like, “Can I do the lineups and the pitching for you?” I’m like, “Yeah. Have at it. That sounds great.”

TC Martin:

I’m sure Eric probably knows a Guido around the corner and a little hustler somewhere around right there too.

Eric Smades:

Made my bacon, egg and cheese this morning. Another thing on the raise. I lived in Tampa for years, I went to grad school there. There’s something about that trough, it lulls you to sleep. It’s like nobody wants to be there. You hit the pool little, quesadilla by the pool. Pre-game, before you know it you’re over three and it’s the seventh inning. That place is… I still can’t believe they play there. It’s in the middle of nowhere. My parents live down there. It’s nowhere near anything. It’s really bad. So I like those unders early when the teams first get there too.

TC Martin:

All right. Let’s lock Basewinner in. He’s going to take a shot with the dog here. The Seattle Mariners and Logan Gilbert at plus 112. And Eric’s going to go first five under three and a half here. All right. Next game guys, Baltimore and the Yankees. It’s Jordan Lyles going for the O’s and Luis Severino back at it again for the Yankees. Big favorite here with the Yankees 280 is the number here. If you like the O’s it’s plus 230, the total in this game is eight shaded to the under. And here we go again guys with Luis Severino. He’s a great story, a feel good story. But it seems I’m a little bit concerned about Severino, especially at a big price here. I’d want no action whatsoever on taking the Orioles here, but a big number for Severino, for a guy that’s still not completely healthy. And he’s shown a few signs here of not being completely, I don’t want to say healthy, but there’s just some concerns here because his numbers are starting to come back a little bit. But anyway, big number here. Basewinner let’s start with you. I know you like the Yankees in this game so talk a little bit about it.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. There’s a huge pricing mismatch from my model to what the market is. What I’m going to do with it is I’m going to put it in a parlay with Toronto. We can talk about Toronto when we get to it TC, but just kind of the fundamentals of this game. I’ve got the Yankee scoring 6.05 runs to 2.6 so you put that into the probability calculator, you get a minus 469 line. So getting value with Severino, it could be controversial to baseball hipsters, but I’ve got Severino ninth out of 150 pitchers. His run suppression number is 68 and Jordan Lyle’s a 107th out of 150 pitchers. But if you take a look at his year to date game logs, and I do three metrics which is expected strikeout percentage for Eric. Expected strikeout percentage hard hit per nine and expected walk rate.

Mark Borchard:

His last two times out against Toronto, he threw a 93 percentile, and against Detroit he was in the 91st percentile. So couple that it with the fact that I’m really in love with his Yankees bullpen and I’ve gushed over them before so I’ll spare everybody that. And the offense, I’m in love with that bullpen. I think it’s one of the best I’ve seen in probably 15 years. And then offensively, we got the number two offense versus the 29th offense in baseball. So you put that all in, you get that price and I’m going to put that in a parlay with Toronto. That’s how I’m going to play it today.

TC Martin:

Okay. All right. We’ll get to the parlay here on the back end of this. Eric, some thoughts on this game.

Eric Smades:

Well, unabashed Yankee hater, let me get that out in the open right now.

TC Martin:

I was going to ask you about that.

Eric Smades:

I’m literally the only one in my family other than my grandfather, rest in peace, that was a Mets fan. So I get the Yankees all the time and still haven’t won a playoff series since I think I was in high school, yet we’re still talking about them. Severino’s a converted shortstop. And I can see it in his motions, his mechanics, that’s why he is never going to be healthy. He’ll have a gem or two and make you think for a minute, but I just think overall mentally, physically, I just don’t see that huge minus two whatever line with him. So I’m going to take a shot on the O’s. I don’t love it to be honest. I just won’t lay that much juice for a home run line usually. I like to stay at least around either even money or hopefully plus money, to be honest with you.

Eric Smades:

I agree with the Yankees bullpen. You still got DJ and Judge, the only two guys hitting for that whole team. Joey Gallo’s still on the interstate. I don’t know what he’s doing. I think he got his first RBI two days ago. Rizzo’s starting to get going, I guess. I don’t really question. Him and LeMahieu I don’t really count as Yankees. So those guys are still hitting. Like I said, I don’t disagree with you. They own the Orioles. Judge is six for 12 against Lyles, so that’s a nice little home run prop maybe with a home run. But other than that, it would be O’s or pass. But I do like your idea with the parlay, to stay away from the run line and throw it in with a minus 180 or something like that to try to get plus money.

TC Martin:

All right. So let’s lock Basewinner in there. We’ll actually, it’ll be the parlay here that we’re going to talk about. So let’s just go to the next game here and talk about Boston and Toronto today. The Toronto Blue Jays are going to send Kevin Gausman out to the hill, and then there’s a Nick Pivetta going again for Boston. A $1.80 is the number for the Blue Jays. The total in this game is eight slightly shaded to the over at the current time here right now at minus 115. But Boston and Toronto game two of this series, they played last night. Toronto got the job done, see if they can do it again here today. And Basewinner I think this is the first time that we’ve actually had a parlay on our best bets. And I know like you mentioned, there’s a lot of guys that will look at that or scoff at that. But you and I are on the same page with this, not necessarily this parlay, but if you take $2 favorites and you can get them down, you’re actually getting plus money.

TC Martin:

And in this situation, you’re going to come out around probably about plus 111 plus 12. So you’re going to get plus money if both of these favorites hit. I’m not opposed to moneyline parlays at all, especially in baseball, especially if you have a mismatch on the pitching side. And then you’ve got an offense that’s a kind of void of offense as well too. So real quick, let’s talk about Boston Toronto, and talk about why you’re teaming up the Yanks and the Blue Jays together.

Mark Borchard:

Well, it really comes down to my starting pitcher evaluation. Well, it comes down to actually three main components, but primarily my starting pitching evaluation. Talk about baseball hipsters up in arms about this Kevin Gausman, number one basewinner pitcher. I have him with the lowest run suppression number in baseball and I’m with a 56. I updated it yesterday and Burnes was number one, but this takes into account three major things that I look at. And it’s kind of exciting to be able to have my number one pitch at a minus 180 price and Pivetta just has been bad. TC, you touched upon this. What’d you call him?

TC Martin:

Poor run Nick. Well I’m getting there during my breakdown.

Mark Borchard:

[crosstalk 00:18:17] Nick or something that.

TC Martin:

I was going to say, I’m going to have to change his name after last time and I got to call him five run Nick. He’s been for me going against him.

Mark Borchard:

That reminds me of the two buck Chuck, but that’s good. So anyway, if you look at Gausman’s outings, he’s been pretty darn good this year by that three metric evaluation. He threw a 79 percentile against Texas. Against the Yankees, a 95 percentile, and then against the same team, Boston, he through the 97 percentile. And this has rated over 3000 starts since last June 26. So those are really good numbers. And if you take at Pivetta, he’s 28 percentile his first start against the Yankees, two percentile against the Twins. And then his last time out, the game you had TC, he was at a 44 percentile. I think we have a huge starting pitching advantage here. The way the bullpen shape up, I’ve got this setup for Gausman, 26th out of 150 setups for these starting pitchers.

Mark Borchard:

The Boston bullpen, I don’t hate. I have them, they’re 54th out of 150 pitchers for Pivetta. But a huge advantage for me with the offense, Toronto I have at a 117 and Boston at 108. So you put that all in, I’ve got a price of minus 243. So I think that minus 180 is a pretty good opportunity to get my number one pitcher in a nice spot. So I’m going to tie that in with the Yankees. I think that both these teams I’m really high on them, I’m higher on the Yankees, but I think they’re both the real deal. So it’s going to be exciting. I’m really looking forward to this AL East race and watching the Yankees and Blue Jays kind of duel it out all season.

TC Martin:

Eric, thoughts on this game.

Eric Smades:

Yeah, I don’t disagree with anything. I definitely don’t have Gausman as high as you do. Pivetta is a lot better on the road by the way, 17 home runs at home, seven home on the road. I just can’t put my money behind it, but I still think they get to Gausman. I think the first five team totals, only one and a half or at minus 110. Looping a bomb, he’s not deceptive, he doesn’t have any junk. He’s just coming at you. He’s locating fast balls, little off speed stuff. But I don’t see a problem getting to two by the fifth inning with Gausman at all. A couple guys got numbers against him. I expected this to be juiced heavily against Gausman. I think they’ve seen him enough. A couple of guys having that lineup have really good numbers against him. I think we see a couple runs. I wouldn’t be mad at the total game over too. I just can’t go against that murderer’s row in Toronto right now as far as Pivetta is concerned. So I’m going to stick with the team total Boston first five over.

TC Martin:

So guys, when I was handicapping this game, I looked at it yesterday and I said, oh boy. Four run Nick is going again. It’s automatic. I got to go against four run Nick. And like I said, I’m going to have to change his name to five run Nick, because he gave up five last time at Toronto, which I went against him. And I said, I’d to be remissed if I did not go against four run Nick again. So I had to do it. Then I started diving a little bit deeper into this and of course we know Pivetta has been horrible. He’s 0 and 3, his ERA is 10.03. His whip is 2.14, the highest I believe in baseball right now. Again, 10 strike outs and 9 walks. So easy go against. And I love the Toronto bats, but something just popped out to me while I was handicapping this game. And it’s Gausman. And I know Gausman has been good. 22 strikeouts, hasn’t walked a batter yet, but I’m still not sold on him because I look at how many hits he’s given up Mark, and that’s where the problem is. He’s given up 21 hits. So he is very hittable. That fastball is very hittable. So I said to myself-

Mark Borchard:

Oh, I disagree but I’ll let you go. Sorry TC.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Okay.

Mark Borchard:

I disagree with that.

TC Martin:

Anyway, like I said, so I decided to change it up a little bit and I was going to join you on Toronto, but I said, you know what? I think both these guys are going to get lit up a little bit. I usually don’t play a lot of totals, but I thought this was a good spot for a total and it’s only eight. So I’m going to take the over in this game banking on that four run/five run Nick does his job. Gausman gives up a little bit with those Red Sox [inaudible 00:22:39] because they are capable. And thinking that the total should go over eight here. So that’s the way I’m going to play it.

Eric Smades:

I like it.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I just wanted to talk about the Gausman stuff because he has allowed to hit so I think from a standard statistic standpoint, you’re looking at that and that is what it is. But one of the things I’m doing differently this year is I’m taking a look at this stuff plus metric, and it has to do with how the fastball moves, the difference between fastball and the off speed stuff, horizontal break, vertical break. And Eno Sarris is the guy who publishes it. So I’m taking a look at his numbers and I’m scaling it to a percentile and Gausman has an 83 percentile stuff plus number. And so I would disagree his stuff is hittable. That’s a pretty high number. It’s kind of the highest on the board with the exception of maybe Woodruff’s at 83% and then Severino’s at 81%. So I do like Gausman stuff. So I’ll disagree with you guys on that.

TC Martin:

Yeah. And again, like I said, I’ve watched him a couple starts this year and I go back to last year as well too. Again, they’re making contact with him, giving up 22 hits. And again, I do like Toronto in the spot. I like their bats, but I’ll take a shot with you over and Basewinner will go ahead and go with the two team parlay with the Yankees and Toronto. And that’s going to turn him a profit if he hits both of those to basically round plus 112 or so. And also Eric’s going to go with the team total of over one and a half here in the first five.

TC Martin:

All right guys, let’s go to the next game. And we’re talking about, I like to call this the loser game here. I can’t believe we’re going to be talking about this game. But I guess in baseball someone has to win every day, but if you look at these two teams, neither one has won in over a week, are you kidding me? This early in the season, we’re talking about how bad the Royals and the White Sox are. And I know that’s kind of shocking how bad the White Sox are, but the White Sox have lost seven in a row. The Royals have lost four in a row and they’re going to trot Dallas Keuchel out there again.

TC Martin:

And we’ve talked about Keuchel before. What is wrong with this guy? I definitely think his better days are in the rear view mirror. White Sox a $1.49 favorite. Only reason that Keuchel and the Sox are this kind of a favorite is I think people are busting out the due theory here. The White Soxs are due to win, maybe Keuchel will have a good day finally. But it’s against the Royals who are a very light hitting team. And of course they’ve got Daniel Lynch going today. So a $1.49 for the Sox. If you like the Royals plus 134, the total in this game is eight and a half. So Mark, who do you like in this battle of these two losers that haven’t won in over a week?

Mark Borchard:

Well, I’m not high on either pitcher. I’ve got them ranked almost identical. I’ve got them with a 116 run suppression number. So it places Lynch 135th out of 150 pitchers. It places Keuchel 136th out of 150 pitchers. So I’m going to play the over. I’ve got 10.3 runs projected and I’m still high on this White Sox offense. I’ve got them fourth in baseball at 118. And one thing that’s, I think, kind of interesting about the White Sox offense is if you look at them from a weighted runs created plus standpoint, they’re at 83 and you say, God, this team they’ve really kind of underperformed this year. But if you look at their hard hit metrics, those are pretty good. They third in baseball and hard hits per nine, they’re sixth in baseball, sorry, with an expected weighted on base average.

Mark Borchard:

And that’s based on launch angle and velocity off the bat. So I think that if you go granular on this offense and again, there’s a sample size issue too. We’re still only 10% into the season. I’m still really high on the White Sox offense. And I talked a little bit about the stuff plus that I’m using this year. It’s not part of the model, it’s just kind of an extra evaluatory process that I make. And Lynch is a 10 percentile stuff plus, Keuchel a 15%. So for all those reasons, I’m going to bet the over here. And it’s really hard for me to play a total. We talked about this yesterday, TC, about the dead and ball and Major League Baseball putting two different types of balls in play and really all three of the last three years, 2019, 2020 and 2021.

Mark Borchard:

So you’ve got to kind of take some caution and use trepidation when you’re playing it total. But having said that, I think that this is a good opportunity to play an over. I think all the signs are pointing there. And there seems to be there’ll be some win there in Chicago that if anything, it’s going to help out the carry of the ball up to 20 mile an hour gust, and it’s going towards center field. So I guess those are all the reasons that I like, with the caveat, we got to kind of keep an eye on these totals, just because of the ball issues that Major League Baseball has put upon themselves.

TC Martin:

It’s pretty strange here we are early on in the season, we’ve got a team that has a four game losing streak, facing a team with a seven game losing streak. I feel this is a mid-September matchup from years ago with these two teams. And it is shocking that the White Sox are struggling as much as they are because you’re right, Mark. This team still has some great bats. So Eric, I know you like this game as well too, who-

Eric Smades:

I love it. I love the over as well. If I was Dallas Keuchel, I would just married Kelly Nash. I’m not sure how interested in baseball I’d be right now either. So he’s been getting lit up, left the lineup coming up. The White Sox are just so injured right now, the entire roster. Be a nice little soft spot, I think, to try to take them to win the central too to be honest. So we’re going to start getting some pieces back.

TC Martin:

So you got a smile on Mark’s face because you bring up the married pitcher player. Hey, I’m happy-

Mark Borchard:

No, I don’t have metrics on their wives, but these younger guys have metrics on the wives, more power to them.

Eric Smades:

Well, no, she’s on MLB TV. So she’s a contributor on there. And my buddy works for them. Shout out to Seth. They just got married this summer and I don’t know if you’ve seen her, but I’m not sure you would care too much about baseball either. So he’s been getting lit up for sure. I don’t know how they keep trotting this guy out there. Every now and then he locate that sink or change up combo and keeps them all balanced for a little while, but Lynch is trash. This lineup should be able to… Like you said, the weather too. I looked up the weather, it’s going to be in the fifties, nothing cold, nice wind out. So I think everything sets up for a big… At least, it dropped eight and a half. I can’t see them not both getting to four runs. I don’t see how that happens. So I love that over as well.

TC Martin:

Well, let me throw this at you. We’re sitting here talking about the White Sox bats and how bad Lynch is, why not a play on the White Sox here?

Eric Smades:

I just love to fade Dallas. If anything that plus 150 maybe take a shot at, with a couple of struggling teams. Casey’s by no means mailing it in, I just have a bunch of young pieces. I love Bobby Whit Jr. Love watching that kid pick it. God, he can play short and he’ll figure the bat out soon enough. It’s still early, but like I said, four four, I don’t see how we don’t get there.

TC Martin:

Mark, did you consider the White Sox?

Mark Borchard:

No, it’s a good point. And I’m looking at my model, that’s minus 184. So that would indicate value on the White Sox. I honestly think I haven’t ever been on Keuchel. I’ve hated Keuchel even when he won the Cy Young. So maybe there’s something subjective there, but the model would indicate value on the White Sox. I can’t back the guy though. Like Eric said, the metrics show it but he said it, he’s trash. And it’s backed up by the… So how long are they going to keep this guy in the rotation? Hopefully a while, because I think there’s going to be some spots where we can play against him. So it was always how long are they going to keep this guy out if you find a good betting opportunity? So maybe this is one. And I think even though my model says, hey, the White Sox have value. I just can’t get behind Keuchel. Just can’t do it.

Eric Smades:

Agreed.

TC Martin:

Gotcha. Understand. All right. Let’s lock Basewinner and Eric in for plays on the total here, both like over eight and a half minus 115. So root for runs here today. How about early and often runs? There we go.

Mark Borchard:

Sounds good to me.

TC Martin:

There you go. All right. Let’s keep moving here and keep the Chicago theme. This time we’re going to talk about the Cubs. They are on the road and the Cubs are in Atlanta as they will take on the Braves. And the Braves are a $1.65 favorite. The total in this game is eight slightly shaded towards the under, at minus 120. On the hill today it’ll be Marcus Stroman for the Cubs, and then we’ve got Max Fried going for Atlanta. Big outing for Fried last time guys, when he faced the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine. Seven innings pitched, no runs allowed, only two hits, eight strikeouts and did not walk about. Fried was outstanding. And he kind of reverted back to his old self a little bit. We know that he was a little uneven last year, especially in the postseason. But he did have that big game against the Astros in the world series.

TC Martin:

That’s what he kind of reminded me of in this one. He’s had one career start against the Cubs, but that was three years ago. And we know this is a new Cubs team, a lot of young hitters. For the most part, these Cubs hitters have never seen Fried before. And I really like Atlanta in the spot here. Stroman has been awful so far. Seven earned runs in four innings last time out against Tampa Bay. Five earned runs against Colorado where it only lasted four innings in that game. Atlanta had a much needed day off. As we know that they’ve been struggling a little bit, been a little uneven. We’ve seen some signs of the offense coming back to life a little bit, but they’re at home. They kicked back yesterday, much needed day off. And Atlanta has scored enough runs to win in their last two losses. They scored seven runs and four runs. I think this is a great spot for Fried, I think it’s a great spot to go against Stroman, Atlanta at home. I really like the Braves in this spot. So I’m all over the Bravos in this one. Basewinner?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I’m with you on your handicap. I’m kind of perplexed a little bit by the line movement. I think the Braves started off at minus 180 and it’s kind of gone to minus 185 down to minus 157. And that’s probably why I didn’t play it because it was overnight. It was kind of a no play based on the model, but I haven’t priced… I’ve got Fried and Braves at minus 185 and I’m high on Fried. Now I’m interested TC, you mentioned Kyle Wright and you have an affinity for Kyle Wright. And you said he’s the best man in the rotation. Do you still feel like that after looking at Fried, to kind of take a deep look at Fried? Who would win in that comparison?

TC Martin:

Here’s why I said that the other day. When I bet on Wright, I was going by his numbers and the way he looked early on in his first couple starts. Full body of work obviously, Fried is the more experienced pitcher, probably has the better overall stuff over periods of the last few years. So again, we haven’t seen the best of Fried, but again, I’m banking on just… This guy’s got great stuff. He can be electric, as we know, he has the experience factor. And again, going against the Cubs, I think there’s a great spot. The Cubs are a bunch of free swingers, they’re a bunch of young hitters. And again, I just think Atlanta their bullpen’s going to be ready today as well too, the day off. So you factor all that in, but I’m thinking if you’re asking me, who’s the better pitcher on the stuff right now, I’ll say one in one with Fried and Wright, I like both these guys.

Mark Borchard:

Okay. That’s fair enough. It’s interesting about Kyle Wright because it’s just such a departure from last year. And there is some difference with his pitch shape. He throws the curve ball a little bit harder than he did last year and it’s dropping more. But I’m kind of speaking off the top of my head, but I think his stuff plus was still 58.

TC Martin:

He’s better this year than last year, I think I talked about that.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. But it’s interesting, if you look at his basewinner number for this year, 17 in his pitch, he’s at 1.81. It’s second in baseball. Comparatively, Fried’s been good too. He’s 14th in baseball, 3.18. But I think what invariably is going to keep me off this game, even though the lines dropped, is Fried’s stuff plus at 37%. Could indicate maybe a chink in his arm. I have him ranked pretty high, 31 out of 150. Well, I’m going to pass on it. If I had to play it, I’m totally with you TC. I think that we have an edge particularly in the bullpen as well. So I can see this number being minus 185, as opposed to minus 157. So good luck with that play and it’ll be interesting for me at least to kind see what happens. I’m kind of excited about Kyle Wright’s next start, just to kind of see what he throws out there.

TC Martin:

See, I’ve kind of turned you a little bit, huh? You were going to [crosstalk 00:36:06] a couple of weeks ago.

Mark Borchard:

He’s just a weird case with the numbers because they were so poor prior to this season and he’s had three starts and they were good. You get a guy like that every now and then, then it kind of comes out of nowhere. So maybe you were ahead of the curve TC on him.

TC Martin:

I just seen some adjustments. He does definitely looks a better pitcher this year than last year, we’ll see if that holds up. Eric, there’s a lot to digest for you my man.

Eric Smades:

Not at all. Now we’re speaking my language. The NL East I’ve been watching it forever and Strowman, I’ve bought watched every one of his starts for the last couple years being in New York. And I agree with everything you said though. Gun to my head, I’m playing the Braves. I’m taking a shot with the over, I think this game gets away from the Cubs. I think Atlanta’s seen Stroman plenty of times from last year. I think they can hang an ugly number. And I think maybe the ugly number, they let Fried out get a couple cheap runs at the Cubs at the seventh, eighth inning, type of thing to push this over. But I wouldn’t play it, but gun to my head I’m going to take the over. But I’m not a Stroman believer. I did last year, I think that was a bit of an anomaly here. He looked great, that change up looked great. I think he’s a little full of himself when he gets too cocky is when he gets in trouble. And I feel this is the year he is going to get a little lit up, I think.

TC Martin:

All right, we’ll see how it works out. I’m on the Braves so you can lock me in for the Braves and getting a little value here with this price as well too at minus 165. I know Basewinner mentioned around 157, 165, so lock it in there and then Eric likes the over here at over eight. Okay. Moving on to our next game here. The A’s and the Giants going to go with this one here tonight is Daulton Jefferies takes on Carlos Rodon. The Giants are a huge favorite here at minus 260. You like the A’s, plus 210. Low total here at plus six and a half. One of the reasons why this is a low total, going to get a little chill weather tonight in San Francisco, but you got two very good pitchers, not just one in Rodon, but Jeff Jefferies as well too. I like Jefferies.

TC Martin:

In three starts, he’s given up only two earned runs. Rodon has been solid, but I’m not completely sold on him. And I talked about this yesterday, when the Giants were traveling cross country off of that road trip, they’ve now played 11 games in 12 days in four different cities. They went Cleveland, New York, Washington. They had to stop over in Milwaukee. Again, unfortunate for the Brewers, the way they lost that game. But I just see great value in the A’s here. And I’m going to take a shot. I’m going to take a shot with this big dog here. The A’s have played a lot of low scoring games. Their pin is fresh. They’ve had that off day yesterday. I think this is a sleeper game and I’m going to take a shot with the Oakland A’s because I do like Jefferies. I think he’s going to show up. And like I said, Rodon’s a monster. There’s no question about it, but sometimes you got to pick and choose a dog spot. I think there’s a good dog spot. I’m going to take the A’s plus 210. Basewinner, some thoughts?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I’ve got it priced at minus 213, so I really don’t have an opinion either way. I think it’s just going to be really, for me, to play these A’s it’s going to be hard to get behind this lineup. They’ve got Andrus, Neuse. Murphy’s the only guy that’s above average by my ratings. Bethancourt’s coming back. I think he was in Japan or maybe Korea, but not in a good way. They just kind of using this guy to fill out the lineup.

Mark Borchard:

Piscotty, Pache, Allen, Christian Lopes, Tony Kemp. I just can’t get behind these guys and that’s kind of why it’s priced so high. I love Rodon. I think he’s a great pitcher. The metrics kind of bear it out. And he’s number seven out of the pitchers in my top 150. And if you look at his last time out against the Mets, it was a 91 percentile outing, an 18.9 swinging strike percentage, 3.6 hard hit per nine. And I wish a luck on it. I’m not going to play it because it’s kind of priced where it needs to be. But for me, it’s a no play. This Oakland lineup is one of the worst I’ve seen in a long time.

TC Martin:

Eric, you got any thoughts on this game?

Eric Smades:

A hundred percent agree with you TC. I’m with you on the same. Let’s go down that boat together. I like Jefferies too. I agree with you though Basewinner, that lineup’s garbage. I just think there’s more of what the line says there’s a 29% chance they win. Weird scheduling spot with that weird game in Milwaukee yesterday, the one game travel. It’s just a weird spot where I love the big dog here. Rodon I think is getting a little overpriced here. I think the six and a half is a little too much. I don’t like laying the 125 though, I wouldn’t touch the over probably. I think we get a low scoring game as well. Let’s go. Let’s ride this Oakland team together TC.

TC Martin:

This is really a value play for me. There’s a lot of value here and again, the A’s aren’t bad and they got rid of a lot of pieces of this. And their bats have not been great. However, like I mentioned, they’re going to be in games. The A’s are in every game. So if you can give me the A’s in this game, especially a team that they know really well and they face them every year in the Bay Bridge series and everything of that nature. Plus $2 with this, with a very good pitcher in Jefferies. So I’m going to take a shot, so lock me in for the Oakland Athletics at plus 210. Hopefully that’ll get some of those units back that I lost yesterday in those two heartbreaking losses that I had.

Eric Smades:

Yeah. I’m glad we’re doing this show today. Because I got murdered yesterday, so we’ll start there. We’ll start the record off today.

TC Martin:

Okay. Plus 210 for Eric and myself. All right. Feel free to shoot some questions at us in the Q&A portion of our show here. As we know, we love hearing from all of our viewers out there. Remember, like and subscribe to the channel here, The MLB Show and of course BetUS TV. So ring that bell or hit that bell so then the notifications you’ll get when we go live and everything else. So make sure you like, subscribe. We are here every Monday through Friday at 12 noon Eastern. All right. Questions. Let’s go to Mark. Mark wants some thoughts on the Tigers and the Twins today. Basewinner, what is your model for these two pitchers in this game?

Mark Borchard:

Well, I’m not going to play it personally. I think that Twins have crept up to minus 130. And the model surprises me actually a little bit because I don’t like the Tigers and I think that I’m a little bit higher on the Twins, I am a higher on the Twins. I have them over their season win total. So I’m a little bit surprised that I’m not showing value on the Twins. But if you look at the starting pitchers, Paddack is a 93 in there. He’s not even in the basewinner 150, because he’s kind of a spot starter. I like E. Rod a little bit. He’s 51 out of 150 pitchers. The bullpens are pretty close offensively like the Twins, but not that much more than the Tigers. And what’s going to kind of hold me off either way on this play is the stuff plus. E. Rod 7% stuff plus, Paddack 24% stuff plus. I’m going to pass on it. I just think there’s better value on in other spots here.

TC Martin:

All right. Any quick thoughts Eric on that game?

Eric Smades:

Yeah. I’m never going to pass on fading and paddock. I think he’s at best an average pitcher. I think he gets a little too much credit for being a big kid in the bravado and the whole deal. I like the Detroit team total over three and a half plus a hundred. It’s a little chilly. I think the wind’s blowing in a little so I wouldn’t hammer it or anything, but I think the weather’s going to play a part here. But I don’t know if I can take Detroit, like you said with E. Rod, but I do like the Detroit Tigers put up a couple runs today.

TC Martin:

All right. Some quick thoughts. Dustin has a question here on the Brewers and the Pirates. We talked about the crazy schedulings scenario there with the Brewers yesterday. They come off of a road trip and they have a one game in Milwaukee. Then they get to get back on a plane late last night and go to Pittsburgh to take on the Pirates. Brewers have played a lot of unders, a lot of low scoring games. I’m a little bit concerned about the Brewers going into Pittsburgh here. I think that they are kind of a tired team as well too. And especially that heartbreaking loss yesterday.

TC Martin:

I like them better than the Pirates. Obviously they got better bats than the Pirates, they got better pitching than the Pirates. Andrew McCutchen is on this tour with the Brewers and the Brewers actually said, hey, we’re going to make sure that he plays all these games against his former teams. And that’s what’s happened on this crazy road trip where he played against the Giants yesterday, played against the Phillies. Now he’s going to get a chance to go back home and play against the Pirates here. So I like the Brewers, but I’m afraid to play him here. Thoughts on either side or the total here at all Mark.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, this is a tough game for me because my pricing on it shows that I should make a play on the Brewers. I’ve got a minus 212 and the line before the show at least was minus 155. This Keller’s a little bit strange because I’ve gotten him 138 out of 150 pitchers, but his stuff plus, and believe it or don’t, it’s right on line with Woodruff. He’s at 83%, Woodruffs at 83%. And I’m trying to take a look at his game logs here and they’ve been pretty decent this year. Against St. Louis, it was a 78 percentile.

Mark Borchard:

He did have a bad start against Washington by that three metric chart at nine percentile. But his last time out against the same team, he was at a 98 percentile. And I’m kind of looking at ways to narrow down, the model will fundamentally crunch out probably five or six plays a day. So I’m kind of looking to narrow downplays. And this is one of those plays where, hey, the model indicates value on Woodruff and the Brewers, but there’s some conflicting information, current information and good information, that kind of causes some doubt in my mind. So I’m going to pass on it although the model does indicate value on the Brewers.

TC Martin:

Okay. All right. Appreciate all the questions out there from our loyal viewers out there.

Eric Smades:

Real quick. I have no problem playing the Brewers today against Keller. Keller walks the world. I think it’s four and a half walks per 9. 791 ERA in 15 starts at home last time. Weird scheduling spot, I’ll give you that. But a lot of times that first game on the trip it’s an adrenaline rush more than a tired. I’m not a big guy with laying one over 140, 150 like that time, but I think the Brewer’s money lines could be a layup today.

TC Martin:

All right. I got to ask you, I got to ask the Homer over there in Manhattan. Do you like your Mets today against the Cardinals?

Eric Smades:

Love them.

TC Martin:

Is there a day you don’t like the Mets?

Eric Smades:

Well, maybe last year, but this year I don’t know. Bassitt’s just a gamer. Just listening to his post game stuff. The way he comes after hitters. Hicks, throws a billion miles an hour, but he’s still a converter reliever. I don’t think he’s going to be there more than three innings. Bassitt’s going at least six. I really love the Mets today. I think they get to Hicks. I love the lineup they’re going to put out there today probably from what Buck was saying yesterday. I just think it’s a very small price, almost even money. I think last time I saw a minus 112, something like that. I’m just not sold on Hicks being a starting pitcher just yet.

TC Martin:

You got it. All right. Couple quick takes, couple more viewers chiming in here want some thoughts. Alexi wants to know about Miami Washington. Mark you got any thoughts on that game?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, what price do you have on that TC? I’ve got it in at the line before the show, minus 117. And I’m showing on a model minus 143.

TC Martin:

I got Miami at minus 125.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I think that’s a good play on Miami. The model saying minus 143, Alcantara 12th out of one 50 pitchers. Josiah Gray, Josiah’s kind of in the highest up there in the basewinner rankings, 110th out of 150 pitchers. And I would go with the Marlins. I might make a personal play on it, nothing for the show officially but I lean to the Marlins on this one.

TC Martin:

Eric.

Eric Smades:

Put a stamp on the Marlins for me, I’m all over the Marlins. The only thing that I think changed a little, little worse on the road, four point something the ERA, but I think this is a huge pitching mismatch. I took a little piece of him to win the Cy Young in the beginning of the year, I think plus 1500. I love them. I love the Marlins. Their bats aren’t the greatest in the world, but I love Jazz. Tell me that swing doesn’t look Junior. It’s just beautiful. I love the way he plays the field. I just love everything about him. He’s great for the game. But like I said, I think the Marlins get the job done today. I like the low price on Sandy for sure.

TC Martin:

All right. One more. Darrell wants to know some thoughts on the Guardians and the Angels tonight at the big A. Mark, you like a side here or a total?

Mark Borchard:

I think it’s priced about right. My numbers are high on Sandoval. I like Mckenzie as well. I’ve got a price at minus 177, so I think it’s kind of where it needs to be. And I like both pitchers. Just briefly, stuff plus is kind of average for both guys. I’m not going to play it either way.

TC Martin:

Eric.

Eric Smades:

I like Mckenzie a lot. I like his deceptive delivery. He’s got junk, he’s got that Pedro type body. I love him. I took a shot on him plus 150 or 140 I think. I can’t really remember what I took him at. But those bats are really… I don’t know what happened yesterday. I can’t believe Bieber was even money and took it. I’m going to go back to the well with McKenzie and hopefully they get some hits.

TC Martin:

Okay. Full docket today. Everybody in action today. We’ve got a lot of opinions on a lot of games here, so let’s go to our best bets boards. And let’s tell you who we like again. One more time here today. And again, I want to thank everyone for joining us here today. So Eric comes out of the gate with just a monster card here. Okay. Let’s go with that.

Eric Smades:

I’m a volume guy. Always have been.

TC Martin:

You’re a volume guy. There it is.

Eric Smades:

Always have been.

TC Martin:

Exactly. I just hope that you’re not a 180 hitter. I hope you’re more like a 380 hitter my man. Seattle Tampa Bay, first five under three and a half runs. Baltimore on the money line, likes a plus 230 on this one against the Yanks. First five Boston, the team total there of over a run and a half, first five innings. And then of course, Kansas City and Chicago, the over. Basewinner likes that as one of his three strong plays as well too, over eight and a half with the Royals and the White Sox. Eric’s going to join me with Atlanta. Well, actually you like the over eight with that. And then he likes the A’s as I do.

TC Martin:

So for me, it’s all about Boston and Toronto over eight. I think both pitchers will get banged around a little bit. Atlanta, I like Fried at minus 165. And the A’s I think there’s a lot of value there today at plus 210 with Jefferies in the bay area tonight at San Francisco. Basewinner is going to kick off the day, hopefully with a winner with the Seattle Mariners at plus 112. And then he’s going with that New York, Yankee, Toronto Blue Jay parlay. Again, both Yankees is over $2 favorite, but Toronto’s minus 180. You even that out, basically they’ll get him back plus 111 on that parlay.

TC Martin:

And again, like I mentioned, Basewinner also likes the total in the White Sox Royal game over eight and a half. So we’ve got a lot of plays on the board here today guys. And I appreciate everyone again for joining us here on BetUS TV and make sure that you join us each weekday, Monday through Friday, at 12:00 noon Eastern time. Make sure that you like and subscribe to not only the show, but the channel as well here on The MLB Show at BetUS TV. All right, Eric appreciate it as always.

Eric Smades:

Appreciate for having me.

TC Martin:

Joining us for the first time here today, my man from Manhattan. I know you’re going to be joining us again a little bit later on in the week. So good luck with your plays and we look forward to seeing you again on Thursday.

Eric Smades:

Let’s go Mets.

TC Martin:

He says, let’s go Mets. Basewinner, we’ll let you get back to the pool side there. Your beautiful home there in Scottsdale.

Mark Borchard:

I’m not. All I’m doing with that pool is babysitting the damn thing.

Eric Smades:

Get in there. It’s 40 degrees here.

Mark Borchard:

But I like the card today. It’s a robust card TC, very robust card.

TC Martin:

Good Work.

Eric Smades:

Be nice. If we had a day game or two.

TC Martin:

I know.

Mark Borchard:

That would be nice.

TC Martin:

All right guys, catch you tomorrow. All right, Jeff will be back tomorrow. We look forward to seeing you as well too tomorrow. Have yourself a great day. Enjoy the games and we’ll catch you tomorrow at 12:00 noon right here on The MLB Show on BetUS TV. Don’t forget to check our sportsbook!

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