T.C. Martin:
Hey and welcome aboard on this Tuesday. T.C. Martin here along with the Base Winner, Mark Borchard, and Jeff Nadu. It is the MLB Show here on BetUS presented by America’s favorite sportsbook, BetUS. Glad to have everyone with us here again on the MLB Show. Welcome back to Jeff Nadu and the Base Winner. Jeff, how you doing, my friend?
Jeff Nadu:
I’m doing well. Good to be here, as always. I celebrated my birthday this past weekend. I was off. You know, I’m not on this show for like four days in a row because I don’t come on Friday or Monday. They’ve got me not here. So, yeah. Another year for me and more baseball. You know? This is the… This is the time of year where this is all we have. You know? [inaudible 00:00:44] have it next week until the All-Star break. So, it’s that dog day of summertime.
T.C. Martin:
I don’t know. I’m loving the baseball right now. I’m loving the dog days. Actually, the dog days usually don’t get until August, September, but when you look at the baseball standings, you can probably make the case that some teams have already hit the dog days before the All-Star Game here as we really do have a disparity of the top half and the bottom half here. But, that’s what we’re here for, to handicap the winners. And, Base Winner, what’s going on, my friend?
Base Winner:
Why, you should be enjoying the year, T.C. You’re having a… You’re having a season. My God. 30 games over 500, 12 units. I’m going to… You don’t pat yourself on the back enough, so I’m going to pat you on the back. That’s incredible, T.C. You are absolutely on fire. Jeff, welcome back. You know, I thought about you over the weekend and your… Because, I wasn’t really that aware of your steal the guy’s broad routine and I thought, “You know, gosh. I really could have used him back when I was like just out of college.” And, I was such a nice guy. I couldn’t break up with a girl. You know? I was… I just didn’t… Wasn’t firm enough breaking up with the girl and it’d always come back and I thought, “Well, gosh. You know, I could just… If I was younger, I could just go to Philly and go out to the bar where Jeff hangs out and then go to the bathroom and then Jeff can steal the girl and I’d be happy.”
Jeff Nadu:
Well, you were my friend, so I don’t think I would do that. But, I mean, you just got to… You just got to say, “Hey, honey, you know, I’m moving on to something else. It was fun while it lasted but I got to move on.” So.
Base Winner:
Jeff, have you ever had somebody that’s just hung around too long?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I have one right now.
Base Winner:
So, you’re… You… Maybe you got to find that guy who’s trying to be like you and steal the broad. Right?
Jeff Nadu:
But, the thing is every time I see her and I look at her, I think to myself, “Well, not that bad.” You know? It is what it is. I can’t… She’s one of those [inaudible 00:02:37] type of women, that dark love, you know? That love that I… That I know it’s not good for me but it’s… You know, I can’t let it go. You know? Is what it is.
T.C. Martin:
Would you classify her maybe, Jeff, as a slump buster?
Jeff Nadu:
No.
T.C. Martin:
You know, you lose a couple baseball games and there’s a slump buster girl.
Jeff Nadu:
Oh, no. No, no, no, no, no. No. She ain’t that, bro. I’m telling you. She’s just a good… She’s a woman that… You know, I just… I’m trying to… And, she’s a little younger than me. She’s like four years younger than me, so I’m trying to fix her and just kind of mold her. And, we’ll see. You know? It is what it is, I guess.
T.C. Martin:
Jeff’s trying to fix her, Base Winner. Do you follow that? He’s trying to fix her.
Jeff Nadu:
Well, in the way of like whether you [inaudible 00:03:15]… You know, I know I come across sometimes as maybe a bit out of there, out there, but the truth is as far as social media and stuff, I feel like I’ve done pretty well and she’s kind of her own kind of part of that world, so I don’t know. We’ll see. She’s good and bad. You know? We [inaudible 00:03:33].
Base Winner:
You know what, T.C.? I think… I think Jeff has a great heart underneath that tough exterior. I really do.
Jeff Nadu:
Of course. I definitely do.
T.C. Martin:
I could see that. All right, guys. Let’s… Let’s take a look at the board and we’ll get everything updated with that so you can follow along at home if you’re scoring at home. There you go. Read them and weep. There you go, as everyone above 500, doing well here on the show. So, we got to like that.
Jeff Nadu:
[inaudible 00:04:03]Base Winner:
And, I’m down 5.76 units, so, you know? I mean, you got Nola last night. He goes seven strikeouts, no walks, but ended up losing the game. So, you know, Philly’s in a tough situation. If Bohm’s out, man, that’s going to really hurt their lineup. So, he slid into second base head first and dislocated his thumb. So, I think that that’s kind of a stay away play. It’s interesting. And, then they’re going to lose some guys on the COVID restriction going into Toronto. So, it’s a… I think that game’s like a stay away, if… Maybe play the under if anything there. Sorry, T.C.
T.C. Martin:
No problem. No prob…
Base Winner:
But, I just had to… I had to jump in there because I’m not happy with minus 5.76 units. But, we’ll see if [inaudible 00:04:44].
T.C. Martin:
You’ll get it back, brother. You’ll get it back.
Base Winner:
Yeah.
T.C. Martin:
Just some news and notes there from last night’s game. Max Scherzer solid again. Talked about it yesterday. Seven innings, one run, three hits, nine strikeouts and no walks again. Since his return, Scherzer has 20 strikeouts, has not walked a batter in 13 innings. So, good call with the Mets yesterday, the under in that game, which I had. And, then the Boston-Tampa Bay game kind of played out which we thought it would with the two ham and egg pitchers and then the pinball machine goes off with both offenses there. That thing flies over the total there.
But, from a non-betting perspective, guys, and I’m sure you heard the news here today and I think it’s definitely newsworthy on the baseball side. Whit Merrifield had the longest consecutive game starting streak at 553 games. He is now injured. And, I was kind of following this streak a little bit because you don’t see players play every day anymore. And, obviously it’s a far cry from Cal Ripken, but I was kind of rooting for Merrifield here and I was just thinking. What’s the mindset here with Mike Matheny, the manager of the Kansas City Royals? Like, hey, am I just going to let Merrifield play every day? Because, again, they always want to rest their players and do this sort of thing. So, now Merrifield’s streak of 553 is ended because he’s injured, and I don’t think it has anything to do with playing consecutive games.
But, do you know who the next longest streak is? It just… It just shows you the day and age where we’re here right now. It’s Matt Olson, about 220 games or 200… You know, that’s where this streak is. Remember back in the day… I mean, if you’re old enough, you remember you had Cal Ripken but then you had so many other players that had a thousand games played, 800 games played. 553 is the longest and I don’t think we’re going to see anything like this probably ever again.
Base Winner:
Yeah, I don’t think you will because with the… I think I… And, I think rightfully so. I think giving guys time off is a good idea long term as far as saving their health and I know it’s a different game than it was and you long back to the days of complete games.
T.C. Martin:
Yeah.
Base Winner:
And, streaks like that. I’m kind of… I don’t feel the same way, unfortune. Well, I guess it’s not unfortunate. Just, I differ from you, T.C. I like the way they use the bullpens now and I like the fact that they’re not going to… They’re not going to throw a guy’s arm out and I like the fact that they’re not… If a guy’s injured, they’re going to let the injury heal and not ruin his career. So, I mean, I think that… I think that you got to put value in some of that.
T.C. Martin:
Mm-hmm. All right, guys. Let’s move on and we’re going to handicap five games here today on the docket.
Base Winner:
I did want to make a correction, one, before we get into it.
T.C. Martin:
Yeah.
Base Winner:
Because, I said yesterday that Martin Perez didn’t make the All-Star team. He did make the All-Star team. So, that puts Blackburn, Perez and Verlander on the AL squad. I’m almost… Almost got to play the NL just because of that.
T.C. Martin:
I figured you would do that. Yeah. You’re going to play the NL just to… In spite. You’re going to have a spite play in the All-Star Game next Tuesday.
All right, guys. Let’s get to the board here and let’s handicap these games here today on this Tuesday. Everyone in action today. Some pretty interesting matchups. Let’s dive into it and let’s start with the Yankees and the Reds. Yankees a $3 favorite in this one, the total eight and a half in this one. On the hill today, Graham Ashcraft going for Cincy and Gerrit Cole back at it for the Yankees. The Yankees have that two game losing streak, guys, where they lost in unfortunate fashion if you were banking the Yankees, or backing the Yankees, on Saturday and Sunday against the Red Sox where they blew late leads. In this one today, they get back to business. What is the perfect remedy? It is the Cincinnati Reds coming to Yankee Stadium today.
Cole, as we know, has been solid at home. He’s given up one or no runs in five of his last six home starts. Been very, very good at home. And, what I like about this, Cincinnati has no familiarity with him at all. They have not faced Gerrit Cole since 2019 and I believe the only guy that was in that lineup that’s in this Reds lineup now is Joey Votto. And, as we know, Ashcraft has not been good. We picked against him in the past. He’s one and four in his last five starts. He’s given up 21 runs in those games. And, before Cincinnati won their last four in a row… They beat Pittsburgh in the single game, then they swept Tampa Bay over the weekend. They lost seven of their last nine.
So, it’s a huge line here. I am not playing, laying the 300, but I am going to lay the run line here, guys. I got this at minus 140 last night. I was shocked. When I was handicapping this last night and I saw 310 that it opened at, I said that means I’m going to have to like lay 180, 185. And, then when I got 140 last night, I’m all over it. I know BetUS right now currently has it at minus 150. So, I think this has an eight two game written all over it. I think the Yankees’ bats come alive here today. I am not going to hesitate. I am going to participate and I’m playing the Yankees on the run line. Jeff?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I think games like this, you don’t need a ton of kind of discussion as to why you’re playing it. Right?
T.C. Martin:
Right.
Jeff Nadu:
I mean, you’re playing a really high level team that’s going to win 115 games or more against a team that’s really horrific, with the worst bullpen in baseball, a starter that I don’t like against a starter that is among the best in the major leagues and makes right around the most money, arguably. So, yeah. I have no issue with this one. The fact that the run line… You said 150, 140. That’s surprisingly low, quite honestly. It is a little concerning. Why is it that low? I feel like it’d be 180, as you alluded to. But, yeah. I think if you’re getting the number, take it.
People bring up the fact they don’t want to lay a run line with a home team. Sometimes, you have to think about, and it’s exactly what you said. If it is eight two in the ninth, you welcome it. You don’t worry about it because you’re good. You don’t have to worry about a ninth at-bat. Is it rare that this is going to land on one run? No. I like the play. I have no issue with it.
I thought you were going to do one of those parlays again and I was hoping… Stay away. Isolate the game you think is going to be a blowout. I agree with you.
T.C. Martin:
Yep. Base Winner?
Base Winner:
Well, he just said parlay and that’s exactly what I’m going to do, T.C.
Jeff Nadu:
You never learn with this.
Base Winner:
If you take… Well, it’s a good way to minimize risk, though.
Jeff Nadu:
True.
Base Winner:
While getting two pretty good teams. It’s got to line up correctly, but I think this one does, and we’ll talk about that Minnesota game later. But, as far as this Yankees game, what I’m going to do for the parlay is I’m going to parlay Yankees with Minnesota on the money line. It pays plus 129. But, this particular game, I’ve got it priced at minus 305. I put it out last night at minus 280. I think even though it agrees with the model right now, the current line is minus 300, there’s a couple ancillary things.
And, let’s just start off with the starting pitching. Starting pitching. I’m actually not as bearish as others are on Ashcraft. I actually have him one percent better than average and Cole is 26% better than average in the model. If you take a look at their Base Winner ERA, Cole, two point eight two, and then Ashcraft, four point four one. So, worse than I have him in the model. But, even having said that, if you look at Ashcraft’s stuff plus percentile, he’s only in the ninth percentile and then Cole is in the 97th percentile from a stuff plus standpoint. Those numbers aren’t in my model. I just kind of use them to kind of analyze the game. So, that really helps that Yankees handicap.
And, believe it or not, with a four point five or thereabouts Base Winner ERA, Ashcraft has actually still been lucky. He’s in the 70% luck percentage. And then, Jeff, you said that Cincinnati’s bullpen is the worst in baseball and I agree with you. In the model, they are the 30th team in baseball. The offense, the Cincinnati Reds offense, 30th in baseball in the model compared to the Yankees, third in baseball.
So, I think you put all that in. I don’t think there’s any other ways to go. You know, T.C. and I were talking a little bit before the show. It’s like I want to hear from the guy who’s playing the Reds. I mean… And, I’m not trying to be a smart-ass. I just… I would like to see his logic on playing the Reds here because I only see one way to go and that’s playing the Yankees or somewhat of a derivative off that Yankees bet.
Jeff Nadu:
I think you’re just probably playing it and saying I’m going to hope that the randomness happens with baseball and Cole gets lit up. But, that’s really your only basis. I mean, think about this, guys. The Reds have played 86 games. They’re about to play 87 games. Cincinnati has 15 saves. Think about that. I mean, that basically equates to… I mean, the highest in baseball is Milwaukee at 33. You got the Yankees at 30. They’re not even in opportunities to win games. They’re constantly getting blown out. You have a bullpen ERA at five point four two. A bullpen ERA. Not the pitching staff, just the bullpen. They’re just a disaster.
And, that’s a great point, Mark. There’s no legitimate basis to take the Reds here. I think you’re really just throwing it. Maybe you’re hoping that four games in a row, they just beat the Rays, but to compare the Rays and the Yankees, it’s just not close.
T.C. Martin:
Yeah. And, that goes back to what we were talking about earlier too about trying to make a case for playing these bad teams. I mean, there’s such a disparity between the good teams and the bad teams and when you have a game like this… And, again, you only have to lay 140 or 150. It just screams. But, yeah. I want to talk to the guy that wants to play the Reds on a daily basis or the Diamondbacks on a daily basis or the Royals. It’s very hard because you can say, “Oh, maybe they got their best pitcher going.” But, then again, you got to get to the bullpen as well too. You may have to rely on that. So, it’s very, very hard for me to go ahead and play these sub 500 teams. Very, very difficult. And, I just won’t do it.
So, lock… Lock me in for this game here today with the Yankees on the run line. Not crazy about the run line, but it serves its purpose here today and only laying 150. And, Base Winner’s going to put this in a parlay. We’ll get to his second game of the two team parlay here in a little bit.
Next up, Mets and the Atlanta Braves. They’ll go at it again. We saw last night’s game where Scherzer got the four to one victory for the Mets against the Braves in a low scoring game. Braves are the favorite tonight at 185. If you like the Mets, plus 165. Total is eight and a half, slightly shaded towards the under, minus 120 in this game. David Peterson going against Spencer Strider. You can make the case, two pretty good pitchers even though Strider’s been much better than Peterson as of late.
Base Winner, handicap this game, Braves and the Mets.
Base Winner:
Yeah. I like the Braves here. I love Spencer Strider. You know, I put it out last night and it’s moved up, but I still think there’s value. I’ve got it priced at minus 199 and if you take a look, and this could be a controversial rating to baseball hipsters, but I have Strider third in baseball in the model with a run suppression number of 55, meaning he’s going to suppress runs 45% greater than an average pitcher. And, it makes sense. If you go over to basewinner.com and look at Base Winner ERA, and this is strikeout percentage, walk percentage and ground ball percentage, all things that I think the pitcher can control, he’s number two in that metric too and I think with a two point one two Base Winner ERA, he’s only behind Shane McClanahan and I think that maybe the only thing you could say about Strider from a negative standpoint is he doesn’t have that big of a sample size.
But, having said that, if you look at his stuff plus, which I think that kind of stabilizes quicker, he’s got the best stuff in baseball from a starting pitcher standpoint. 99th percentile. There’s only relievers that have better stuff than Spencer Strider. I do like Peterson in the model. I’ve got him 9% better than average. But, his stuff plus rating is in the 29th percentile. You look at from a component standpoint, I’ve got the teams even about, about even versus their respective splits. They’re both ranked fourth in baseball. The Braves versus lefties, the Mets versus right-handed pitching.
And, I think that we get a significant advantage from a relief standpoint right now. I do like the Mets’ bullpen but I just think that the way this game shapes up, we’re going to get the best of Atlanta’s bullpen. Atlanta’s bullpen by two different metric charts that I have, number one in baseball over the last 30 days and overall. So, you get a great starting pitcher, arguably in the top five in baseball in my opinion, against a top notch bullpen. You got the even offenses. I think that that justifies laying the price. I’m going to go ahead and tie it into a parlay with the Giants, which we’ll talk about in a couple minutes.
T.C. Martin:
All right. Strider going for the Braves in a little bounce back game there [inaudible 00:17:47]. Jeff, you back the youngster in Strider here?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. You know, I was really curious about what Mark put this number because I think a lot of people are going to look at this game and say, “Wow, I can get back 165, 170, on a team that’s 54 and 33. You know, Peterson’s not that bad.” Well, yeah, I mean, but he’s not that good, either. I mean, he’s going to give up three runs. You have a team in Atlanta who is particularly strong against left-handed pitching, hitting about 260, which is quite good against… In a split standpoint. You also look at the fact that Strider… I mean, he’s been elite, as Mark alluded to. It seems like he gives up no or one run every game. He’s got 102 strikeouts. He’s got an ERA sub three, significantly sub three. You have a good bullpen behind him. You’re at home here.
We have to start talking about how good this Atlanta team’s been over the last month or so. I think if I’m looking at this game as a gambler and as a handicapper, I’d put this number at like 200 as well, and I think a lot of people are going to say, “Wow. How do you put 200 against a team like the Mets?.” Because, I think when I look at this game, I’m looking at what are the indications that the Mets can win here. I just don’t think Peterson’s that good. I think his numbers come a bit… They’re a bit ancillary in the way of thinking. But, Strider’s better, significantly better. I think they win the game here.
Am I playing it? No. But, I like Atlanta. Strider’s very good. Maybe a first five minus a half. I could them surely having the lead here. I think he’s just better than Peterson, significantly.
T.C. Martin:
That definitely might be a way to go there with the first five on the Atlanta here. Figure they’re going to bounce back here today and get to Peterson. So, this will be part of a parlay for Base Winner. He’s going to take the Atlanta Braves in this in the first half. We’ll get to his second half of his parlay coming up a little bit.
Next up, guys, we’re going to go with Milwaukee and Minnesota. Jason Alexander going for the Brew Crew today. Not George Costanza, but Jason… That’s a different Jason Alexander. Let’s be perfectly clear. And, Josh Winder going for Minnesota today. 140 for the Twins. Total in this one is nine. Minus 115 towards the over with these two pitchers. Base Winner, who you like? Minnesota? Milwaukee? Who you got?
Base Winner:
Yeah. I’m going to bet against Jason Alexander the MLB pitcher. So far, he has… He’s shown not much and I’ve got him rated. He is number 150 out of 150 pitchers, and if you take a look at his Base Winner ERA, it is a five point seven nine. Super high. 204th on that chart. Winder’s no prize, but I have him a little bit bet… I mean, a lot better than Winder. I’ve got him at 9% worse than an average pitcher.
I do like the Twins’ offense a little bit better here. You know, one of the interesting things is this Milwaukee bullpen and if you look at the way the bullpen shapes up, if you play them when you have a pitcher like a Burns or a Woodruff who’s going to go deep into the game, you’re going to get that back end that’s Hader, that’s Boxberger, that’s Devin Williams. But, if you look at the other guys in the bullpen, I don’t think that you really would be too stoked if you’re backing Trevor Gott. He’s a 115 Base Winner. A Jandel Gustave, a 131 Base Winner.
And, then I think what might be the most attractive thing about this game to me is that we could get a chance to see Chi Chi Gonzalez in long relief and that’s always got to be fun if you’re betting the other team. So, this is going to tie into this Yankees game and the Yankees-Minnesota parlay will pay plus 128. I think that’s a good way to attack both games.
T.C. Martin:
Jeff?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I really like where Mark’s going here as far as Minnesota. You know, they’re kind of that sneaky team that actually is pretty, pretty effective. I mean, top run… Top 10 in runs per game. Have a pretty good bullpen. And, obviously Winder’s not going to hit your fancy too much but he’s significantly better than Jason Alexander. You look at the actual actor Jason Alexander. You have to wonder. I mean, would he be better or worse than this guy? I mean, this guy’s been a disaster this year. You look at his career. It’s his first year in the majors. 36 innings. Opponents are hitting 326 off him. A WHIP of over one point seven. Just not effective.
Minnesota, as I said, pretty good lineup. And, when Mark puts it… Mark’s making a lot of good points on things today as far as the bullpen. Whenever we think of Milwaukee, we think of this great bullpen. Now, the back end, as he alluded to, is good. But, are they going to really even get to those guys in this game? You have to wonder. And, I’m kind of looking at Minnesota and it’s kind of right around that price range.
You know what? [inaudible 00:22:37]. I’m playing the Twins. Minus 140. I’m going to add that to my card. I like this play. I think it’s a very standard play you have to make. Alexander’s just not good and I think you’re going to, as he said, get some [inaudible 00:22:49] relief that you can pound on too as well. I like Minnesota here. I’m going to agree with Mark and add this to my card.
T.C. Martin:
And, you don’t know. The other Jason Alexander, the original Jason Alexander, might be as good. He hung out quite a bit with George Steinbrenner, Danny Tartabull. You remember [inaudible 00:23:03]?
Jeff Nadu:
That’s true.
T.C. Martin:
[inaudible 00:23:03] hung out in the clubhouse with Buck Showalter.Base Winner:
That’s true.
T.C. Martin:
I mean, heck. Remember, guys. The cotton shirts. I mean, you got to go with that.
Base Winner:
That’s great, T.C. Good job.
Jeff Nadu:
That’s true.
T.C. Martin:
Seinfeld references [inaudible 00:23:15]. Mark, I got to ask you a question here. Which game do you like better? If you had to say I could only play one game today, would it be Atlanta or Minnesota?
Base Winner:
Oh. Well, if it was just like who’s going to win the game, it’d be Atlanta.
T.C. Martin:
Okay.
Base Winner:
If it’s like what’s a better bet…
T.C. Martin:
So, the reason why I asked you… Going with the parlay, why did you elect to go Yankees Twins instead of Yankees Atlanta?
Base Winner:
You know…
T.C. Martin:
Because, it seems that Atlanta… Your handicap was great on both.
Base Winner:
In all honesty, I wanted to… I wanted to keep the National League and the American League separate. There is really no rhyme or reason. And, I played like a… Personally, I played a round robin. I played a four teamer, which pays five to one, because I think they’re all worth good plays. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be giving them out on the show. But, that was just kind of like for my organizational standpoint. I’ll keep it in within the leagues. I guess there’s an interleague game, but like the home teams in American League, the home teams in the National.
T.C. Martin:
Okay. And, the reason why I ask, because if those are your top two plays and they’re both pretty heavy favorites, that you would link those together instead of maybe your number one play and your number three play. So, again, that’s why I was asking.
Base Winner:
Yeah. It’s hard to [inaudible 00:24:21]. I guess if I had to rank them, I would rank the… Actually, the Twins is probably the best play from a betting standpoint. The… I would say the Giants would be the next best, then the Braves, then the Yankees. The Yankees, just from a pricing standpoint, is right there. But, there’s some… Those stuff plus numbers are just such… They’re so disparate. You know?
T.C. Martin:
Okay. All right. Minnesota. We got two plays on this one and I like the Twins as well, guys, but I’ll let you guys go ahead and hammer this away. Minnesota will be on Base Winner’s parlay on this game and then Jeff is going to add this as well too on the Minnesota Twins. Right, Jeff? Regular play? Not a first five? Regular play for Minnesota?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I’m just going to play the game here. I’m going to flip that we’re good with the bullpen. I like a lot of advantage here. So, yep.
T.C. Martin:
Okay. There you go. Okay. Next up, Dodgers and the Cardinals. Dodgers had a off day yesterday, a little travel day, and they traveled to St. Louis. Mitch White going back for the Dodgers today. He’s a $1.47 favorite. St. Louis plus 132. The total in this game is eight and a half, minus 115 towards the over in this one. Base Winner, we’ll go back to you, and give us some thoughts on Dodgers and Cardinals today. Liberatore going for the Cardinals today.
Base Winner:
Yeah. I don’t think there’s much value either way. I’ve got it priced at minus 148 for the Dodgers. I’m not a huge fan of the Liberator. In baseball, that is. I have him at 121, which is 21% worse than average. And, then White, I really don’t like in my model either. He’s 7% worse than average at a 107. So, the ranking of the starters is… Mitch White is actually… He’s got a pitching number of 107 and a rank number of 107. And, then Liberator is 142 out of 150.
The Dodgers offense is significantly better than the Cardinals offense. Stuff plus, both guys are 26th percentile. I think it’s priced where it needs to be. I’m not going to do anything with it, T.C.
T.C. Martin:
Yeah. Dodgers won seven in a row. St. Louis has won two in a row. Neither one of these pitchers, guys, has gone past the fifth inning in their entire career. I think maybe White has gone five and a third or five and two thirds, but that’s it. So, you know you’re going to get some bullpen action here today. Jeff, thoughts on Dodgers Cards today?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I’ve kind of talked about the Cardinals. I had some success with them. Haven’t really had much success with them recently. They’re not playing well. They’ve lost 11 of their last 18. They’re not really going into their All-Star break with a ton of confidence. They’re approaching 500 all of a sudden. I mean, they’re kind of a team that’s kind of lost some pizzazz a bit. I don’t Liberatore.
As far as Mitch White, I watched him pitch against the Padres a few starts ago. I thought he was pretty effective. I think on the surface, he’s kind of that weak link in the rotation, but as a fish starter, I don’t think he’s that bad. He’s not a fish starter on like… You know, he’s not Jason Alexander or something. So, I think he’s a decent guy. You look at last time out against Colorado, he was effective. He’s actually been pretty damn good over the last month or so. I mean, he’s never really had a bad outing. I mean, I guess in certain short outings he has. But, as a starter, five, six innings, hasn’t been that bad.
So, I lean Dodgers but no real interest in playing this game.
T.C. Martin:
Yep. And, if you’re leaning Dodgers, obviously you’re leaning Dodgers for the offense as well too. You hope that White can be serviceable in this situation.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah.
T.C. Martin:
The bats can carry him against a mediocre pitcher at best for the Cardinals today. So, no action for any of us on this game, but a game to keep an eye on here.
Arizona and San Francisco will wrap things up here today. Dallas Keuchel going for the Diamondbacks and Logan Webb going for the Giants. Logan Webb has pitched well for San Francisco, but here’s an interesting stat, guys, that San Francisco has lost five of Logan Webb’s seven… Last seven starts. So, and the problem with Webb is he looks pretty good but he’ll have like one bad inning every outing and his bad innings can really be bad, as he can give up three or four runs at a time.
Giants are a heavy favorite in this game. Giants are minus 230 in this contest. The Giants have been slumping a little bit as of late. They lost last night, fell behind early, tried to battle back, couldn’t get the job done. And, Arizona, hard team to figure out at times. Jeff, some thoughts on the Giants and the Diamondbacks tonight. And, I know how much of a fan you are, Jeff, and we all are. I’m joking. Of Dallas Keuchel.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I’ve been picking on him a lot and the truth is he’s just not a good pitcher anymore. He just is really struggling. He’s been a mess. You made a great point about Webb and kind of the issues with this Giants team and winning his starts. And, look, the one thing I am somewhat concerned about is the fact that in July, 12 days, San Francisco’s hitting 208 as a club. Okay? But, I still look at where they are at runs per game. I mean, they’re at about four point seven runs per game. You know, they’ve been a fine home offense. Four and a half runs per game, which is where I have a team total here, four and a half. No juice.
I was hoping that’s what I was going to get and I’m getting it here. If I could lay that against Dallas Keuchel and not have to worry about the Giants pitching, I really don’t care if they win. I just need them to get to five or more runs. It’s pretty simple. And, when we look at Keuchel, okay? Obviously, betting against him is smart but betting against him on the road has been extremely smart. You know, on the road this year, I mean, he’s got an ERA south of 12. Just south of 12. Opponents are hitting 380 off of him. His WHIP is two point four. Think about that. Now, it’s only 16 innings, but I mean, he’s been a disaster, this guy.
I mean, lefties this season are hitting 342 off of him. Righties are hitting 320. I mean, he just allows base runners galore. Throw in the fact that this Arizona bullpen is one of the worst in baseball. Now, they’re not bottom five bad, but they’re bottom eight bad. They’re a bad bullpen. If you’re going to give me four and a half with this offense, I think this is a great candidate to bust out against. In that ballpark, I think they get to him here. Over four and a half runs for the Giants.
T.C. Martin:
And, the Giants have got Belt back in the lineup last night. Crawford’s back as well too.
Jeff Nadu:
Yep.
T.C. Martin:
So, the Giants’ lineup is at their best that they’ve been in quite some time. Base Winner?
Base Winner:
Yeah. T.C., you… Both of you guys made really good points. T.C., I’m going to seize on the first thing you said about Logan Webb because I think it is an interesting handicapping point where you have a guy who looks just tremendous for six innings but he’ll have one inning of those six that he’ll give up three runs, and that’s hard to model because you’re taking the aggregate of the six innings, and so sometimes the models don’t pick that up. But, you know, Nola was like that last year in 2021. You’d have a bet on him and he would just be breezing through the game and then he’d have one, like a hiccup inning, and it would cost you the bet.
So, I think that’s interesting. I don’t know if it’s a thing with Webb. Perhaps. But, his Base Winner numbers are pretty good. I have him actually 15th out of 150 in baseball. I got this game priced at minus 273 for the Giants and it was a lot better yesterday. It’s really kind of crept up there. It was minus 165 when it was released and it’s kind of gone up to minus 205. But, I’m going to make it the second part of the parlay with the Braves, the National League parlay, if you will. And, interestingly enough, they both play plus 128.
So, I think that Jeff made a good point about the Diamondbacks’ bullpen. He said, well, they might not be bottom five but they’re bottom eight. Well, I actually have them bottom five. They’re the 25th worst bullpen, or 25th ranked bullpen, fifth worst in baseball. And, I’ve got the Giants ranked seventh in baseball from a bullpen standpoint. So, we’ve got a significant edge, starting pitching, significant edge in bullpen. You look at the stuff plus for Keuchel. You say, “Well, maybe he’s got good stuff. He just can’t command it.” Well, he’s got bad stuff. It’s a 14th percentile from a stuff plus standpoint. Logan Webb comes in at 60% from a stuff plus standpoint.
So, I think for all those reasons, I think there’s only one way to play it. I mean, this is another one of those games where like, okay, I want to hear the guy handicap Arizona. I really do. It would be interesting handicap for me to have another guy, have a guy handicap the other side, because I just can’t… I don’t see a way to play Arizona here.
T.C. Martin:
All right. All right. Put Jeff down for this one with the San Francisco Giants team total. Getting some runs here at home tonight. Over four and a half, laying 110 in that one. And, then Base Winner’s putting the Giants on his parlay and we’ll go over that when we get to the best bets segment, who he’s locking that up with as well too.
All right. Questions. Feel free to hit us with some questions on any of the games that we covered or that we didn’t touch on and if you want some opinion on that, hit us here in the chat room here on the MLB Show at BetUS TV. Reminder again. We’re here Monday through Friday at 12:00 noon Eastern time here and click that bell so you’ll get the notifications when we go live. Handicapping winners five days a week here for you on BetUS TV.
All right. Our boy Dirty Deeds is checking in here. He wants thoughts on the Red Sox and the Rays. And, we know the Rays getting swept previously as he talks about, but I do want to talk about this game guys because this is the debut tonight of Chris Sale. Now, Chris Sale hasn’t pitched in more than a year and Chris Sale has been down in the minors in Wooster. He had actually four starts and hasn’t really looked that good. And, I know he did his Sunday Night Baseball interview during the ESPN broadcast in the dugout there and he was all smiles and he says he feels good or whatever.
But, you know, we talk about Dallas Keuchel, and remember how good Dallas Keuchel was? I’m not saying Chris Sale is there, guys, but we haven’t seen a good Chris Sale in quite some time. What kind of Chris Sale are we going to get tonight, specifically because of the long layoff? But, he hasn’t looked good in the minor leagues. Jeff?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. It’s a good point and we have to kind of realize that… You know, I know I’m getting to the point… You know, it’s almost… I’ll relate this to a recent… Sadly, a death we had. Paulie Walnuts passed away over the weekend and I remember when I was a kid and he was this young, spry guy. You know? He was older, but we have to realize… You know, I’m getting older. I’m 33 now. I’ll be 40 in seven years. I’m getting to the point where people are starting to get older. You know, they’re starting to wind down. We’re starting to see new blood come in.
And, you know, Chris Sale five, six years ago was the man. He was the guy. But, as we know, baseball careers are quick. They end quick and as we’ve seen with Dallas Keuchel, which I’m not comparing him to. Neither are you. But, that’s where things can go. You know, you come off a major injury, you struggle a little bit down in the minors, then you come up and you face a team in Tampa who is particularly strong against left-handed pitching. I’m looking at this total at seven and a half and I’m a bit surprised. You know, Kluber’s been okay but, I mean, he’s not been anything to write home about. I like this Boston lineup. I think we could see some fireworks here tonight. I really do. I could see like a five four game or something, maybe six five.
I’m not really in belief that Sale’s going to come in and be that Sale we remember. Didn’t I also see he was like throwing stuff in the clubhouse and stuff? Who? Who? This guy’s a head case. I mean, this isn’t the first time.
T.C. Martin:
Mm-hmm. Base Winner, what are your thoughts? What kind of Sale are we going to see tonight and [inaudible 00:36:04] moving forward?
Base Winner:
Oh, that’s such a… That’s such a hard question to answer, T.C., because we just don’t have a large body of work. We don’t know what he was doing in the minor leagues too. I mean, he might have been trying to work on some things. I mean, that’s trying to equate spring training stats to regular season stats. And, then when they ask him, like, “Oh, well, how do you feel?,” what’s he going to say? “Well, I feel like crap.”? You know? I mean, he’s got to say, “Oh, yeah, I feel good. Raring to go.”
You know, I can only model it the way that I model it. I’ve got it with the Red Sox minus 122. I’m… My numbers are bullish on Sale but that goes back to his historical ratings and all kinds of algorithms you put in there, so it’s… To me, we kind of talked about it yesterday on the show with like, well, how do you handle these rookie pitchers where you’re looking at projections that have a range in them, and I think that there’s such a range in what outcomes could be today that it’s probably good to either stay away or maybe you go on the alternative line. You say, well, he’s either going to be really good. I’ll take the Red Sox minus two and a half. Or, he’s going to be really bad. I’ll take the Rays minus two and a half.
But, outside of that, I would just pass on it. You know, let Sale settle in there so you can get some kind of body of work to really handicap with.
Jeff Nadu:
I think there’s one indication though. And, Mark, one thing I disagree with you on is I just don’t think that if you’re coming in off of a year layoff or over a year… I just don’t think you’re in the minors trying to like work on things and test things. Like, you’re going down there to get your mechanics, your feel back for the game. I don’t know. I feel like it’s probably a pretty good indication of where he is.
But, as T.C. alluded to, I mean, he was not that particularly good even before we saw him have that injury. So, I don’t know. I think you’re right, though, where you just kind of take a shot. I thought about maybe… I know one thing about this. The Rays are pretty good against left-handed pitching and three and a half’s not a crazy team total. Minus 105 at three and a half, I don’t think that’s a bad play there. I think even if Sale’s somewhat good, I mean, I don’t… It’s not out of the question to score four runs.
So, yeah. I think you made a pretty good point there with the alternate run line maybe as well.
T.C. Martin:
All right. Zac Brown Band checks in today and wants to know about the Cubs and Orioles game. How about this, guys? Orioles on a win streak. What? Seven, eight in a row now? Oh, the Cubs are the favorite, by the way, here as well too. The O’s stay hot or what?
Jeff Nadu:
I mean, listen. Jordan Lyles is your ultimate just ham and egger, as you call him. You know? Jordan Lyles has been around a long time. I remember when he was at Colorado. He’s just kind of found a way to make money in the major leagues. He’s kind of like that third string quarterback that makes… You know, he’s Chase Daniel. You know, he’s not a… He’s not good. He’s not effective. He does nothing of sort. The thing with Jordan Lyles is he is never good and makes money in the major leagues. So, you got to give him the preservation ability. He’s able to stay around. But, he’s not a good pitcher. I think this is where it probably ends.
Adrian Sampson has been pretty decent and a starter too for them. So, it’s, in the end, two bad teams. But, hey, if you’d have told me the Orioles were 500 and their Camden Yards had actually people in it… I feel like baseball is better when Baltimore is solid. So, who knows? But, I don’t want to back Lyles.
T.C. Martin:
Yeah. I mean, and Baltimore, I’m sure they’re going to be fired up today because they’re one game under 500. They can get that 44th win, be at 500 today. We’ll see what happens. Again, Orioles Cubs. But, if you believe in the streaks or go with the team that’s hot, the Orioles are the hotter team right now. Base Winner, any thoughts on that game?
Base Winner:
Yeah. Well, no. It’s interesting to me because I can’t remember, and I’ve been handicapping for close to 100 years, when this deep into the season there’s five teams that realistically could be over 500 and the whole division is over 500. T.C., do you ever remember something like this? I can’t recall.
T.C. Martin:
No. No. That’s a pretty good point. Yeah.
Jeff Nadu:
It’s kind of a shame they’re in that division because if they were in the Central, I mean, they would… You know, they could… Who knows what will happen? [inaudible 00:40:11]
Base Winner:
Well, they’re in the… They could get the wild card. I mean, they’re in the hunt technically for the wild card. It’s pretty… It’S a pretty amazing story.
Jeff Nadu:
Let me ask you, Mark. I was just going to make the case about maybe the playoffs for this group. We heard three weeks ago, a month ago, they were sellers. You know, Mancini’s gone and Mullins might be gone. You know, but you kind of realize. Wow, they’re right there. It’s been a good managerial job by them down there. They’ve been… They’ve been good. Good for them guys.
T.C. Martin:
[inaudible 00:40:42]Base Winner:
Yeah, I think… Oh, sorry. Go ahead, T.C.
T.C. Martin:
No. I was just going to say when you got a young core like Mullins and Mancini’s been around a little bit, I think you hope as an organization you want to keep those guys and they got a couple guys in the minors as well too. You want to build around those guys. And, guys, I mean we’ll use the Houston model here. Do you remember how bad Houston was? I mean, going back when Altuve came in? We’re talking about 2008, nine, 10. Well, Altuve came in in 11. But, they kept these core guys together of Altuve and Bregman and those guys and Springer and they just said, “You know, we’re going to keep these guys. We’re going to keep drafting, keep adding draft MLB picks, and then we’re just going to roll with these guys.”
And, you kind of feel sorry for a guy like Bo Porter who had to manage those guys and then Bo Porter got tossed around, never got another job in baseball, and… But, you know, that’s kind of the way I see the Orioles right now. And, you’re right. I mean, you look at this division. When you have the Yankees and the record that they have, you would think that they’re beating up on these guys, but it’s really not the case. I mean, all these teams in that division are pretty darn good. So, [inaudible 00:41:45].
Base Winner:
Yeah. But, I think unfortunately that’s going to be Baltimore’s downfall. And, Jeff, you mentioned… You asked, well, maybe look at them for the playoffs, and they’re close there. It’s a good question actually. But, in my simulator, I have them only winning 73 games. Right now, the way it shakes out, Tampa Bay would get that final wild card slot at 86 games won and then Seattle’s really close. Seattle’s coming on strong. They’re at 85.7. So, that’s what’s I think unfortunate about Baltimore is they got to play in this beast of a division. The AL beat, I call it.
T.C. Martin:
All right.
Jeff Nadu:
I mean, guys. I just will say though, this is fascinating, man. Like, look at this rotation. Okay. Look. Seriously. Listen to some of these names. Dean Kremer, Jordan Lyles, Tyler Wells, Spencer Watkins, Bruce Zimmerman. I mean, who are these guys? I mean, it’s amazing they’re effective. Look at their lineup. You have very few… If you don’t watch baseball regularly, you don’t know half these guys. They’ve got a manager who has really not been successful there. You got to give them credit for what they’ve been able to do. There’s a lot of young talent here, but a lot of unprovenness as well. It’s impressive what they’ve been able to do.
T.C. Martin:
Real quick, guys. Ryan is asking us about Cleveland and the White Sox today. Any thoughts on that? Base Winner?
Base Winner:
Well, I could tell you… I could tell you how I have the first game priced and I’m smiling because the White Sox are going with Davis Martin and I like these pitchers where you can say the name backwards. He could be Martin Davis.
T.C. Martin:
Right.
Base Winner:
And, I [inaudible 00:43:15].
T.C. Martin:
No relation, by the way.
Base Winner:
Yeah. No. But, I have the thing priced at minus 246. I’m showing on my chart it’s minus 150 for the Guardians and I would… I’d take the Guardians at that price in the first game. And, then I think the other… The next game, it’s going to be Cease, who I love, versus Connor Pilkington. So, maybe I’d take the reverse game. So, maybe I would take the Cleveland in the first and the White Sox in the second. That’s kind of how I would do it.
T.C. Martin:
Jeff?
Jeff Nadu:
There’s nothing a bookmaker… These Vegas bookmakers… There’s nothing they like more in summer than a game like this. Right? You have two teams, coin flip teams. You have a double header. You have everyone and their mother’s going to play this. They’re going to get even action on both sides. It’s a flip game. You know, you hope that Cleveland loses, that way you get most of that. It’s… Plus, you get an extra game on the card.
So, yeah. This is a absolute no-no as a gambler. Betting doubleheaders with inconsistent 500 teams at 1:10 in the morning, or on 1:10 in the afternoon on a Wednesday or Tuesday, whatever it is. No-no. Stay far the hell away from it. This is a I don’t have anything to do and I’m bored in my workspace, so I’m going to just bet it and I have no edge. Don’t do it. Stay away.
T.C. Martin:
All right. We got a lot of great names from our loyal viewers that check in, but the next one, I don’t know. Chiraq Baby.
Base Winner:
There you go.
T.C. Martin:
Chiraq Baby wants to know about the Marlins and the Pirates and I see Base Winner smiling there. [inaudible 00:44:41] smiling about Chiraq Baby [inaudible 00:44:42] Marlins and the Pirates.
Jeff Nadu:
Well, before he gets to his point, do you know what? What is Chiraq? Do you know what that is?
T.C. Martin:
I don’t know. Do you?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I’m going to tell you. Chiraq is what they call Chicago nowadays.
T.C. Martin:
[inaudible 00:44:53]Jeff Nadu:
I think Chiraq. It’s almost like Baltimore. They call Baltimore Body More Murder Land. They call Philadelphia Killadelphia. It’s very negative and it sucks. But, yes. They call it Chiraq. It’s been called that for forever. Shout out to Chiraq.
T.C. Martin:
There you go. There you go.
Base Winner:
Wow. [inaudible 00:45:09]
T.C. Martin:
Take me back to the north side. Take me to Wrigleyville, please. Okay. Marlins Pirates. Anybody?
Base Winner:
Yeah. I would not play it. If I had to play it, I would play the Marlins. I’m showing like… My model’s showing like minus 192 and I think that that goes because they… My offensive rating for the Pirates… Pirates have second worst in baseball. And, yeah. This bullpen for the Marlins, not too bad. 15th in baseball. Pirates are 26th. So, I think that’s how that number came out. But, I think there’s better value on the card today, in all honesty.
T.C. Martin:
See, Jeff? So, I guess Chiraq just basically… They were talking about the south side of Chicago right now. Right? That’s what they’re talking about.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, they’re pretty much talking about Chicago in general absolutely. But, you know, Marlins. Tough team to back because you love their rotation but they just don’t hit consistently. I lean Marlins here but it’s a tough game. Another game I wouldn’t be betting.
T.C. Martin:
Yep.
Jeff Nadu:
Better games on the card here today. Where’s Houston, by the way? They’re not playing today? What’s up with that?
T.C. Martin:
Houston and the Angels tonight, man. There you go.
Base Winner:
[inaudible 00:46:12]T.C. Martin:
You got Houston and the Angels tonight.
Base Winner:
What’s up, T.C.? You haven’t played Houston for about a week, man. What’s going on?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. What’s up with that? You’re playing unders yesterday. What’s up with you?
T.C. Martin:
Hey, I played Houston on Sunday. We didn’t have the show. Played Houston Sunday against the A’s and I talked about that on the show a little bit Monday. So, yeah. No action for me on the Astros tonight. Garcia going against Syndergaard. Again, the Alvarez injury, guys, that’s a big hole in their lineup. And, they’ll probably get away with it. Probably still win this series against the Angels.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah.
T.C. Martin:
But, again, you know, Brantley’s still out. You know, when you’re losing your number two and number four hitters in the lineup, you know? And, I don’t know about you guys but I’m still thinking Syndergaard is probably better than what his record and what he’s been shown. But, we know that he’s not. He really hasn’t been that good and the Angels are a mess. So, yeah. Angels had a nice… Or, rather, the Astros had an off day yesterday, hanging around in So Cal. I’m sure they’re going to be ready to fire tonight. I was actually contemplating about going to that game tonight, but with my schedule and stuff, couldn’t do it. But, yeah. Astros and the Angels and…
Jeff Nadu:
I will say there is continue to be an uneasy fact. You mentioned no Alvarez, no Brantley. You know, which, he’s been out for a while. But, I got to say. I’ll continue to say it. I cannot bet Noah Syndergaard.
T.C. Martin:
Yeah.
Jeff Nadu:
There is no worse place for a man of his looks than L.A. as a single individual. He’s 29. He’s got a lot of money. He’s got flowing locks. And, as a man that in my status knows, it’s a bad idea to put people like us in L.A. and Miami. Noah Syndergaard, I can’t back him. Sorry.
T.C. Martin:
Yeah. Or, have you come to Vegas as you said before.
Jeff Nadu:
Yes. That would be a bad place for someone like me as well.
T.C. Martin:
You know? Yeah. He will not come visit in Vegas.
Jeff Nadu:
Right.
T.C. Martin:
Could put him in a bad spot. There you go.
Jeff Nadu:
Correct.
T.C. Martin:
I got til 6:38 tonight, guys, Pacific time. I may have some action on the Astros. We’ll see. Give it some time.
Jeff Nadu:
You will.
T.C. Martin:
All right. Best bets here today. Let’s go. I’ll tell you who I’m betting. Well, I already backed it. Like I said, I laid 140 last night with the Yankees on the run line. Come on, Yankees. Get it back together. Disappointing. Disappointment there Saturday and Sunday at Fenway Park. Pathetic the way they closed the game. Yankees minus a run and a half, laying 150 with that on the run line today.
Jeff is all over the team total with the Giants at four and a half and then he also added a play. Jeff, so for our viewers, go ahead. Pump the fist. Let’s hear it, man.
Jeff Nadu:
I’m going to take the Minnesota Twins today. I’m going to fade that clown Jason Alexander and take a Minnesota group that has been under-rated. Shout out to the Twins. Always a solid team. I’m going to lay a little price with them and add the Twins minus 140.
T.C. Martin:
Remember, Jason Alexander did win a contest, Jeff. Just remember that.
Base Winner:
True.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. That’s why I’m betting against him.
T.C. Martin:
There you go. Base Winner, I hopefully know what that means. A parlay. Yankees Twinkies today for the Base Winner that’ll bring back plus 129 approximately. And, then he’s going another par par with the Braves and the Giants plus 21 on a dollar bet there for the Base Winner. There we go. We’re going to start calling him Base Winner Parlay. BWP. That’s what we’re going to start calling you, brother.
Base Winner:
I’ll take it if they win. You can call me anything if they win.
T.C. Martin:
There you go. All right. We appreciate everybody joining us. We’ll be back at it again [inaudible 00:49:33] 12:00 noon Eastern time here on the MLB Show. Remember to like, subscribe to the channel and the show here Monday through Friday, 12:00 noon Eastern time. Hit that bell. You get the notifications when we go live. All right. For the Base Winner and for Jeff Nadu, T.C. Martin saying hasta la vista baby. Good luck. We reconvene tomorrow right here on BetUS TV.
