TC Martin:

As Jeff … In a good Tuesday, wherever you may be, thanks for joining us here on the MLB show. It is BetUS TV. I am TC Martin along with Jeff Nadu and the BaseWinner, Mark Borchard. The BaseWinner back after three days’ rest. So, he’s on normal’s days rest now. Three days rest. Your arm is loose. You’re ready to go. Welcome back, my friend.

Mark Borchard:

Thanks TC. Man, that game yesterday was interesting to watch, that-Phillie Miami game, what a great pitching matchup that was.

TC Martin:

As Jeff is shaking his head, because I know that he had the Miami Marlins there yesterday.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. It’s surprising he brings that game up.

TC Martin:

Yeah. I know, right?

Mark Borchard:

Well, I’m not trying to rub it in, Jeff. I mean, Alcantara was good yesterday. Nola is, I don’t think he’s getting enough respect in the Cy Young market. I mean, he was 30 to one last week. I think he’s been gone down to 25 to one. He’s only a strikeout behind the strikeout leaders in the national league.

Mark Borchard:

And then Alcantara I think is up at the top of that Cy Young Award. And nothing against Alcantara, but my numbers have Nola as a better pitcher. So, I don’t know. I think Nola’s, I think he’s getting disrespected in that Cy Young market and he pitched great last night, didn’t walk a guy struck out six. And I mean, he just gave that team the opportunity to win, and then they seized it at the end.

TC Martin:

We know that Nola’s got good stuff and he has been good this year. And we talked about yesterday that game driving towards the under. And I was kind of messing with that game saying, ah, I really like both pitchers here. But I was a little bit afraid of the ballpark there with Philadelphia. But no, yeah, under came through in that game. And both pitchers did exactly what they were supposed to do and the way they’ve been pitching as of late.

TC Martin:

I think the big story in Major League Baseball though, guys, today is we get ready to go for a full card here today, including a double header with the Cardinals and the Pirates is the red hot Atlanta Braves. They continue to get the job done. They’re now 12 in a row. So, they enter the conversation as far as being one of these teams that we’ve got to look at and very slow start with them early on, the defending world champions. They’re now getting a groove.

TC Martin:

But big blow for them last night is Ozzie Albies is out after he breaks his left foot as he’s trying to leave the batter’s box last night. But we’ll see if that will factor in. And the Braves, one of the reasons why they had such a slow start this year is because they weren’t completely healthy. They’ve been completely healthy now basically for the past two, three weeks, they put a 12-game win streak together here. Some thoughts here as a Braves are going forward here and trying to catch the Mets in the NL East, Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Well, now, they have their guy going today and freed against a 26-year-old minor leaguer. So, things are going to probably continue to go well. Yeah. It’s funny, you say a defending world champs. It’s almost weird hearing that because it’s still amazing to me that they actually won the world series.

Jeff Nadu:

But they’ve kind of been in their fields, and they’ve had a great run. Obviously pretty good lineup, pretty underrated pitching staff. I know we talked about yesterday, there was a little concern about maybe back in someone like Ian Anderson, and he didn’t end up pitching anyway. So, it cancelled out.

Jeff Nadu:

But yeah, I mean the Mets seemed to be kind of untouchable for a while, but look, it’s a long season in baseball as we discussed. And all of a sudden, the Braves only five games back. I remember about a week and a half ago, that was a 10-game lead or something. And all of a sudden, the Braves of obviously as you said won 10 in a row, whatever it is. So, yeah. It’s not going to get any worse for them today. They got a pretty good matchup again here today.

TC Martin:

Yeah. BaseWinner, some thoughts on the Bravos?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I was looking to play, I talked a little bit last week that I was expecting to play a future in that division playing against the Mets. But much to my surprise, I ran the simulations this morning and I’ve got the Mets, well, they’re 40 and 22 now, but the projected wins based on the remaining of the season and their schedule, 58.8 and 41.2. So, they have more projected wins on the remaining part of their schedule than Atlanta or Phillie. So, you put that all into the mixer and I don’t think either one of these teams is going to challenge the Mets. I’ve got the Mets minus 647 to win that division.

Mark Borchard:

And I think if anything, if you’re going to make a plan on this division, it’s a good time to back the Mets. I mean, I think that both teams, the Phillys and the Atlanta, the narrative is, oh, these teams are getting hot and they’re good. But if you run, if you just crunch the numbers and you run it based on the components of the team, this Mets is a valuable bet in the market. Even though you have to lay a little price, but I think it’s worth it. I think it’s worth a juice there.

TC Martin:

You can make the argument with the Giants as well too. I mean, the Giants have now, I don’t want to say come out of nowhere, but they’re playing some great baseball. They sweep the Dodgers last weekend. Dodgers are going backwards now as well too. They’ve really struggled.

TC Martin:

So, we’ve got some interesting races that are heating up. It’s a long season. Injuries come into play as we know. You talk about the Mets. You’re still dealing with the Max Scherzer injury and other guys as well too. So, yeah. There could be some value there. And like I said, the Giants, all of a sudden you look up they were the exact same situation as the Braves were a few weeks ago. The Giants are streaking as well too. So, we’re going to talk about those teams. Go ahead, Jeff.

Jeff Nadu:

I will say this isn’t on our card, this Braves Nats game, but I think you really have to probably look at the Braves again in some sort of capacity. I mean this trot kid going for the Nats is, as I said, 26-year-old minor leaguer. You look at most of his minor league stuff. I mean, it came against double A and single A competition really only pitched about 11 innings in 2021 in Triple-A.

Jeff Nadu:

And he has a pretty decent Triple-A career so far this year. But not a lot of experience, never has been in the major leagues before. Now, you get a tough, really good lineup that’s been good. And they’ve been good in general against the starter. And you’re on the road here, Solano run lines going to be a little bit more good here in the spot. So, that might be a spot to look at the Braves. I know that’s not on our card.

TC Martin:

No. To that point, I actually looked at that game last night, but we didn’t have a line on that game. And Washington didn’t have a picture listed when I was doing my handicapping last night, but I know that the Braves listed Fried and I said, “Okay, this is good spot here.” I like Fried, especially against the Nats. And the Nats farm system has been depleted over the last couple years, especially from a pitching standpoint. So, I didn’t have a picture listed. I don’t even know what that current line is right now.

Jeff Nadu:

Two fifty.

TC Martin:

There it is. So, yeah, run line. You’re probably on the road, maybe laying maybe…

Jeff Nadu:

One fifty.

TC Martin:

One fifty. So, yeah, something to think about with that.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. This guy, Jackson Tetreault, I agree with Jeff, his Triple-A numbers were bad. I’d looked at it this morning. It was like a 4.61 X and Triple-A. That doesn’t really bear out well. So, Jackson Tetreault, he might as well be either Jackson Brown or even Michael Jackson. I think the price is right though. I’ve got it priced at minus 250. So, for me, no value, but I don’t know that picture. They’re in desperate times in Washington, if they got to bring that kid up.

TC Martin:

Two points for BaseWinner, two great musical choices right there. Jackson Brown and Michael Jackson. Very nice, BaseWinner. I like that. Good deal. All right guys, before we get into today’s games, let’s take a look at our leader board, record board, whatever you want to call it, the tote board, I guess they say as in golf and we’ll see if these are updated here today and there you have it. So, right there 52 and 36 for me. Jeff’s there at 26 and 29. BaseWinner above 500 there now at 43 and 42. All Right.

Mark Borchard:

That’s great that they updated them. I mean, I took a day off and I got two units better. I tell you, what a deal that is.

TC Martin:

Yeah. We got the manual scoreboard operators like they have at Wrigley Field and Fenway Park there. See, they’re on top of it. Take them up, take them down.

Jeff Nadu:

You got to love baseball, man. Any other sport, 43 and 42. I’d be like even, but with this goddamn juice, I’m down a lot.

TC Martin:

Yeah. The juice will get us. No doubt. All right, man. Let’s look at today’s games here. We’re going to handicap five games today on the card. And we’re going to start with the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees. And the Yankees at 215 favorite in this one. Total seven and a half, 115 to the over in this game.

TC Martin:

Interesting here guys, Gerrit Cole, back to the mound. Corey Kluber you see these two guys on the card. You look at their names, you think, oh man, couple Cy Young Award winners, pretty stellar stuff. But man, Gerrit Cole in his last start, something very, very rare that he gave up home runs to the first three batters of the game and got battered all over the place.

TC Martin:

But that was the game, Jeff, you and I talked about yesterday, briefly. It was last Thursday that the Yankees fell behind to the twin seven three. Jeff and I were on the Yankees, and boom, Yankees come back. And they win by a field goal 10-7, but Gerrit Cole was downright awful. He goes back to the hill today is a big time favorite here, but what can you say? The Yankees won 11 out of their last 12. They’re 44 and 16. BaseWinner, give us some thoughts on the Rays and the Yankees.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. That game, you guys had that thing the whole way, right?

TC Martin:

Sure.

Mark Borchard:

You got to love it when that happens. Because you almost chalk it off as a loss. And then it comes back and that’s nice when that happens in baseball, so good. I think that Cole’s getting disrespected. And this is somewhat of a New York thing. And I don’t know if it’s because he’s such a popular pitcher, arguably the most popular pitcher in baseball. But if he has one bad start, then the line shades against him, the next start, if he has one great start, then he is the best pitcher in the world.

Mark Borchard:

And so, I think you got to take a look at his body of work and it’s pretty darn good. I’ve got this game priced at minus 265. So, I’m going to put it in a parlay with the Giants. We talk about that game a little bit later, but you put a Giants and Yankees parlay together and it’s plus 108. And I think that that’s a good way to attack this.

Mark Borchard:

Talked about the Tampa Bay Ray’s offense, I had got them 26th in baseball. So, they have some problems there offensively. If you look at the offense for the Yankees, they’re third in baseball. Both bullpens, I really like. So, I would say that they’re probably even there.

Mark Borchard:

But if you take a look at Cole and I just want to kind of focus on what he’s done in his last, oh, it looks like seven starts and he was a 1.59 ERA, 1.31, 2.59, 1.72, 2.2, 1.21, this is a combined ERA based on walk percentage, strikeout percentage and expected walk percentage and expected strike presenters. I kind of combined him.

Mark Borchard:

And then his last time out, he was over five. But I think we throw that last time out. We throw that out. He’s got a 2.41 combined ERA. I like Gerrit Cole. I don’t think there’s any reason to get concerned about one bad start. Going to go here with the Yankees as part of that two team parlay. And we’re going to tie it in with the Giants, TC.

TC Martin:

Okay. Jeff, any thoughts about Kluber? He’s been pretty good. His last five starts giving up basically, he gave it three runs, but he got the win last game. But before that, two runs are less for Corey Kluber.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. But some of these Yankees really hit him hard. And look, Gerrit Cole, generally, he is a guy I’m not really looking to go against off a bad start as you alluded to. You looked the last time he faced Tampa, 10 strikeouts. I mean, completely dominated them. This is a bad lineup. It’s back to a group that can’t really hit for power, won’t drive runs in, they don’t hit timely, just not real interested in them as a whole.

Jeff Nadu:

I think the way Mark’s kind of looking at it I think is a simplified way instead of laying a big number, finding another team that maybe you like and throw it in together. I think that’s a capable strategy in baseball, just two teams. I don’t love this. You obviously always have a bullpen advantage every time the Yankee’s playing. I don’t know about any of you, but it seems like the Yankees never lose. I don’t want to jinx them or anything, but it just seems like that. I mean, you always kind of seeing they have 16 losses. I mean, in what, 60-ish games, it’s pretty incredible.

TC Martin:

Forty-four and 16 man. It’s just incredible of what they’re doing. And it really is a smart way to play these games. And if they’re going to over inflate the line like this, you’re basically forced to either play a run line, which that could be dangerous on a game in, game out basis, even though Yankees have been pretty successful covering those.

TC Martin:

But to put it in a two-team parlay where you’re getting basically even money or maybe you got to lay just a little bit of juice with another game you feel good on, I mean, that is a very good and popular strategy that you see a lot of handicappers do. I do subscribe to that if you feel really good about both games, again, that takes away the juice. And yeah, you got to get an extra game in there. And again, where you’re going with BaseWinner and we’ll talk about your second game a little bit later, the Giants, or another heavy favorite like that, it’s a pretty smart way to play.

Jeff Nadu:

Now, one of the commenters is saying, I can’t lay 200 on Cole right now. Why? I mean.

TC Martin:

I think he’s going by the last start. And we have seen Cole although, he’s been the better Gerrit Cole for the better part of the last four or five weeks. But he does throw in those clunkers. I think some people still remember that probably, Jeff, I guess.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. But again, I don’t know. Sometimes sports fans gamblers are a little too perfected. Look, Gerrit Cole for his entire career is not going to throw eight innings of one hit ball over. It’s just not going to happen. I mean, occasionally he’s not going to pitch well. I mean, it happens. The good thing is, as you alluded to, TC, they still picked him up and they won the game. That’s what great teams do. You’re going to have games where pitchers don’t pitch well. It doesn’t mean that I’m not going to go back to him. Now, if Gerrit Cole does this three or four starts in a row, then I get it.

TC Martin:

All right. We’ll come back to BaseWinner’s other half of the parley later, but he will have the Yankees going forward in this game. Next up, White Sox and the Tigers. Dylan Cease going to the mound for the White Sox today. Drew Hutchison coming back up from the miners, getting called back up for this game. White Sox, a dollar 85, favorite total seven and a half in this game. BaseWinner let’s start with you in this game. Some thoughts on the Sox and the Tigers.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I’m going to make it a play. I’m going to go with a White Sox on the first five minus a half, minus 120. And I think the most interesting thing about this game for me was that I didn’t realize you spelled Hutchison without the N. It’s Hutchison, not Hutchinson. And I was having the darnedest time looking up his numbers because I couldn’t spell it correctly. But I got it in there.

Mark Borchard:

I think what they’re going to do, TC, in this game is they’re going to go your favorite, the opener, and then the bulk guy. And so, the opener’s going to be, yeah, I know you love that, and the opener’s going to be Hutchison. And then the bulk guy’s going to be Alexander. Well, either way, they’re both really crappy pitchers. I’ve got them probably about 16, 17% worse than average. Dylan Cease, I like the guy. I’ve got him eighth out of 150 pitchers. I’ve got the game price on the five inning line just on the money line, minus 268. And you can get it at minus 190. So, if you want to play it that way, you can.

Mark Borchard:

And one of the things about Cease that you really have to like is his ability to strike batters out. In fact, there’s only four pitchers or three pitchers in baseball that have a higher strikeouts above average than he does. And that’s McClanahan, Lizardo and Strider. And Cease is there, 56% better than average in striking out batters as on my BaseWinner starting pitcher board. So, you have to like that.

Mark Borchard:

On the downside, he’s been wild as hell. He’s 48% worse than average from a walk standpoint. But I think if you look at some of these plate discipline numbers for Detroit, worse in baseball, offensively walks divided by strikeouts 0.263. So, I think we get an edge there. I don’t think that they’re a real patient team. So, I think that we can take advantage of their lack of plate discipline skills offensively.

Mark Borchard:

And then this was really an interesting stat. And I dug a little bit deep, but I was concerned about the White Sox walks divided by strikeouts offensively. So, I said, well, how do they do in Detroit, in Comerica Park over the last two years? And this is a decent amount of play appearances. It’s 534. So, it’s statistically relevant. And they’re the number one team, just above the Astros in walks divided by strikeouts at Comerica Park. I think it’s either Comerica Park or Comerica Field.

TC Martin:

Comerica.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. But I know it’s Comerica, I just don’t know if they use field or park and I’ll get in trouble if I use the wrong one.

TC Martin:

It’s park.

Jeff Nadu:

Just like Jeff Gordon did when I think he called Wrigley Field, Wrigley Park.

TC Martin:

Wrigley Stadium, he said, right.

Mark Borchard:

Is that what he said? Okay. Yeah. So, he couldn’t hear the end of that. But anyway, the White Sox’s best plate discipline skills in that stadium over the last two years. So, for all those reasons, I’m going to go ahead and bank this first five innings minus a half minus 120, TC.

TC Martin:

Okay. A couple of the nuggets regarding Dylan Cease. You mentioned he’s been wild. In that last game, he had a 45 pitch inning in the fifth inning. Tony La Russa had to pull him out. I mean, 45 pitches in that inning. And Dylan Cease is another weird guy where he pitched pretty well in that game, but his defense was so pathetic, he’s given up no earned runs, guys, no earned runs in his last three starts, but they’ve scored nine. So, he gave up six runs or the White Sox allowed six runs in his last start, but he was charged with none of them. And here’s a little nugget for you, Dylan Cease pitching against his former team today, the Detroit Tigers. He is nine and 0 against the Tigers in his career. So, little fun nugget there. Jeff, any thoughts on this game?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I mean, this brings back one of the worst beats I’ve had on this show. Last week, I backed this very same play that Mark made up five-nothing, and somehow the White Sox don’t cover first five.

Jeff Nadu:

Remember, they were five nothing going into the fifth, didn’t cover. They were down six-five, just awful. I have no interest in this game. But again, wouldn’t mind going back to it. Cease against Hutchison, major advantage for Mark. Hutchison’s a disaster. He has been his whole career. Remember back to Toronto, he wasn’t a good pitcher. You look at his lifetime career numbers, just not good. I mean, just a middle of the road or bottom of the barrel type of guy, just a guy you want to come in and give you a couple innings to get you to the next day, kind of a bridge loan, if you will. That’s kind of what you’re doing here.

Jeff Nadu:

I will say nasty stuff off the field for White Sox shortstop, Tim Anderson. Lot of bad things coming out about Mr. Anderson and some infidelity guys, lot of bad stuff. I don’t know if people have heard about that. Not good for Tim Anderson, if true.

TC Martin:

In the game that you’re referring to last week, that was against the Dodgers though. So, I don’t see Detroit exploding like the Dodgers-

Jeff Nadu:

But still, I mean.

TC Martin:

… in that game. But I know bad juju because you got this thing you remember that from the White Sox. I get it, man. I get it. All right. We’re going to lock BaseWinner in with a play here, right?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah.

TC Martin:

BaseWinner, he’s on the Chicago White Sox for the first five, he’s going to lay 120 on this. Well, the White Sox have the lead after the first five. Makes a lot of sense considering the pitching matchup here. So, [inaudible 00:20:16] my man and go from there.

TC Martin:

All right, next up. We’re going with the Cleveland Guardians and the Colorado Rockies. This game in Denver Coors Field. There you go. Cleveland, a dollar 65 favorite. The total in this game is 10 and a half shaded towards the over minus 115 to the over. Right now, early money coming in on this game with Cleveland. I know last night when I looked at this game, it was right around 150, 155, already 165 right now. Cleveland is rolling guys. They’ve won 10 of their last 13. Their last 14 games, they’ve outscored their opponent by 23 runs. And they’ve scored no less than three runs in any of those games.

TC Martin:

Shane Bieber’s going back to the mound today for Cleveland. Senzatela going for Colorado. I do like Cleveland in this game. This is going to be my lone play on the docket here today. Bieber’s been great. His last five starts his ERA is 1.67. And here’s another thing that I like. Anytime you get a pitcher going into Colorado could be a little bit shaky. The good news here for Bieber is that the Rockies have never faced him before. So, I like that. Senzatela on the other side, hasn’t won a game since April the 29th. And at home, he’s given up an average of nine hits per contest. So, hot bats that the Cleveland Guardians have right now. Bieber’s pitching well, not a fan of Senzatela. I’m going to roll with the Cleveland here in this game. Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I kind of look toward and over here. I think one thing that … You made a good point. They’d never seen Bieber, but I don’t know, that’s also concerning in the fact that Bieber’s never seen Coors Field.

TC Martin:

Exactly. I know.

Jeff Nadu:

That’s a bit concerning. The weather’s starting to kind of flip, a lot of the country’s hot weather. Look, the truth is Colorado is very good at home. I mean, they scored about six runs a game in that building. We all know Cleveland’s offense is nasty as well. Yeah, a bullpen here, Colorado that’s a mess. Senzatela is a mess.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m not going to say that Bieber’s going to get worked or anything, but I don’t think he’s going to go in there and pitch seven or eight innings and give up no runs. I think Colorado can get three or four. I might like a little bit of an over here, honestly. Anytime I think you go into Coors, I think you, for the most part, throw out any numbers that we’ve seen, unless you just see this wild stat line of over the years, of course, for pitcher. But 11 is high, but I’m always going to lean over in Colorado.

TC Martin:

Yeah. I rarely play games in Colorado for that reason that you’re talking about because you really can’t handicap the pitcher that well. You really got to more bank on the offense or go against like say the Colorado pitcher in this situation. So, you’re right. And Bieber could give up four or five or six runs, but can it still be enough to win the game. You’re banking on Cleveland’s offense. You’re right. And this could be an eight, five type of game. So, BaseWinner, how do you have this one?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I’ve got a price at minus 161. So, for me, I don’t think either side has any value. Bieber’s been interesting. He hasn’t been awful, but he hasn’t been advantage. He’s got a 3.34 XERA, which I’ll take that. He’s 20% better than average in the model versus Senzatela, who’s 6% worse than average in the model.

Mark Borchard:

I think for me, what’s concerning about Bieber is the athletic stuff plus number. He’s only in the 30th percentile, that’s concerning. And pitching plus he’s only in the 29th percentile. So, he’s been able to make it work this year. But I just don’t see advantage to Shane Bieber.

Mark Borchard:

And I’m with both of you guys, it’s hard to make those plays in Colorado. I don’t know. I don’t know where you go with that. I mean, even if the guy’s a good pitcher, he’s not going to get the same amount of break. The atmosphere just changes everything. And so, it’s one of those things where, I don’t know, man, maybe you just handicap offense there. I know Jeff had a good run with Colorado. But to me it’s kind of like, I throw my hands up sometimes with the park factors there, because they’re just so out of the norm, TC.

TC Martin:

Right. I agree. All right. I’m going to take a shot with the offense of Cleveland here today and late 165 in Colorado. All right. Next up, Kansas City in San Francisco, Bubic going for Kansas City. And Logan Webb back to the mound for San Francisco. Webb has struggled. He’s been winless in his last five start. But despite that, the Giant’s still a big favorite, 240 favorite over the Royals. Total in this game is eight.

TC Martin:

And one of the reasons why the Giants are still a favorite, Webb hasn’t been pitching really well is because the Kansas City Royals guy is one of the worst teams in baseball, 20 games below 500. And Bubic, he’s a bit of a mess too. So, BaseWinner, give us some thoughts on this game. I know this is going to be the back end of your parlay here. Tell us why you like the Giants and Logan Webb.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. Logan Webb is for me the sixth, the best pitcher in baseball. And I know a lot of baseball hipsters are going to say, “Well, that’s way too high for him.” But if you look at his advanced numbers, they’re pretty darn good. And I think you take a look at his game log, his last five games, he’s got a 3.0 combined ERA, 2.54, 1.55, 4.39. It was a little bit off versus on the road versus Miami, but then a 3.56.

Mark Borchard:

So, projected wise, and this goes back to, I don’t know, using statistics that are about four months’ worth of data for Logan Webb, he’s got an ERA projection of 3.0, so that’s a fair number. And then I think if you take a look at Chris Bubic, if you look at the BaseWinner leaderboard for pitchers and you look at the BaseWinner ERA, he’s 192nd, and that places him last in baseball, 6.60 BaseWinner ERA. I’ve got to play against the guy.

Mark Borchard:

And I just think ancillary ideas here, the bullpen, San Francisco, much better bullpen. Offensively, they’re closer than you would think, but you still have an edge with the Giants. I’ve got them 18th in baseball, 4% better than average. I’ve got the Royals 23rd in baseball, 2% worse than average. And then if you look at that pitching plus number, which I like to look at from the athletic, Logan Webb is a 91 percentile and Bubic is a one percentile. So, I think we’ve got a lot of things working for us in this game. I think it’s a good qualifier for the back end of that parlay with the Yankees TC.

TC Martin:

All right. Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I mean, when you look at the Giants, I mean they’re OPS, they’re slugging, their run numbers are just better against left-handed pitching. They’re very good at home scoring over five runs a game. I mean, we may have to come to the realization, I mean, Bubic, one of the worst pitchers in baseball. I mean, bad bullpen behind him. Kansas City, I mean, if not for Cincinnati, they would have the worst bullpen by a significant margin. This is an awful bullpen, just an awful team in general, to be honest.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m looking at this total at BetUS for the Giants at four and a half. And I’m thinking to myself, well, I don’t know. I mean, I’m kind of liking that. I mean, they’ve been good in that park. Bubic’s been a disaster. The bullpen sucks. You know what? I’m going to add that over four and a half on the sheet with the Giants.

Jeff Nadu:

I agree with Mark here. I think at any rate, the Giants have a big offensive night. He’s a little higher I think on the bullpen than maybe I am. I don’t think they’re particularly good, but the Royals don’t really give me much solitude that they’re going to come back and win a game or anything. So, yeah, I think the play for him is good, but I’m going to add San Francisco team total over four and a half fair against Bubic, who’s been terrible.

TC Martin:

Yeah. And you figure if Logan Webb’s going to get right, this would definitely be the opponent for him to get right. And talk about the Giants like I mentioned earlier, sweeping the Dodgers, getting back into the NL West race here. Their defense has been outstanding in their pitching. And they’re bullpen, everything, and Dodgers, they only gave up four runs in that series. But the Giants weren’t scoring a lot of runs as well, too, in that series. So, when you think of the Giants, you don’t think about a bunch of big bats here, but should it be enough to get the job done against Kansas City? Bubic’s bad. You’re right.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, they’ve been one of the better offenses this year.

TC Martin:

Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

We’re just looking to run scored. I mean, they’ve been good.

TC Martin:

All right. Let’s lock Jeff and BaseWinner in for this. So, we’re going to lock BaseWinner in for his, the second leg of his parlay. So, he’s going to have a Yankees-Giants parlay going in this one, $2 favorites to bring that juice down. And then Jeff’s going to play a team total in this game on the Giants. Is that the number Jeff, four and a half?

Jeff Nadu:

Four and a half, yup.

TC Martin:

Four and a half over with the Giants on that one. Okay. There you go. Next up, LA, the battle of LA, I guess if you want to say, Anaheim and Los Angeles, the LA Angels and the LA Dodgers. Dodgers, a $2 favorite here. If you want to take a shot with the Angels plus 170 total in this game is 80 minus 122. The over in this one.

TC Martin:

Noah Syndergaard, who’s been better as of late, could this be the beginning of the old Syndergaard that we used to see with the Mets. Tony Gonsolin. I’ve been on Gonsolin quite a bit during this run. He’s been good. But here we go, the Dodgers, is this the game where they get out of their funk because they’ve definitely been struggling. Dodgers were two for 20 in that series with runners and scoring position against the Giants getting swept.

TC Martin:

I’ve mentioned Mookie Betts before here on the show, guys, just one of the worst leadoff hitters where we’re seeing right now. Two for 31, not even making contact at the plate, but Dave Roberts is going to stick within there. And we’ve seen these teams with superstars go through this. I remember Mike Trout. Remember he was, 0 for 26 just a week, week and a half ago when the Angels lost their 14 in a row here. But here we go. Dodgers and Angels, neither team playing very good baseball right now. Some thoughts on this, BaseWinner.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. If I had to play the game, I’m going to pass on it. But if I had to play the game, I would go with the Dodgers here. I’ve got a minus 207. So, it’s going to be a no play for me. I don’t really like to lay that kind of juice. But Syndergaard’s interesting. I mean, I’ve got him a kind of league average. That’s what I think he probably is. He’s got some good numbers from a location standpoint with the athletic. It’s a 96 percentile location plus number, but only a 25% stuff plus number, and then a 77% pitching plus number overall.

Mark Borchard:

I don’t know if I can really buy those numbers. If I had to object to one guy’s rating, I would object to that. But I guess they do it scientifically. If you look at the BaseWinner ERA for these guys, it’s pretty close. Gonsolin, he’s got a 1.5 standard ERA, but if you look at his expected ERA by my numbers, he’s at 3.72. So, that’s concerning. If you want to back Gonsolin. Syndergaard’s at 3.69 ERA, which that in itself is surprising. His expected ERA, worse than average at 4.44. For me, I’m going to sit this one out. Either way is kind of scary to me, honestly.

TC Martin:

Right, right. Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I’m making a play here. I haven’t really featured this a ton on the show because a lot of Gonsolin starts been over the weekend. I’m going to back the Dodgers in the first five minus to half here. It’s been something that’s worked and I’ll tell you why in just a second.

Jeff Nadu:

I want to talk about Syndergaard quickly. I actually faded him last week. He was great in that start against Boston, but Boston won the game one nil if we remember. Angels are still struggling. I mean, they lost a couple over the week at the Mets. They’re not losing 17 a row, whatever it was, but they’re still struggling to score. I look at Gonsolin, you look at really all his numbers. Now while the strikeout rate hasn’t really, in fact, it went down this year. His walk rate has been terrific.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, he went from a 14.2% walk rate down to I think 8% walk rate this year. It’s allowed David Roberts to use him a little bit longer and starts. I looked at his starts, entering per start compared to last year. He was only going about four innings a game last year. Now it’s up over five.

Jeff Nadu:

And I’m going to get Gonsolin long in this game. He’s just been terrific at really all levels, whip, opponent against. And I’ve been tracking his first five minus half results. So, how did the Dodgers fare in his starts? He said seven straight first five minus a half. And then, his 11 starts this year. First five minus a half, nine and two.

Jeff Nadu:

So, this has been a bet that has come in. I don’t really want to worry much about the Dodger bullpen. I like this matchup against a struggling Angel group. I know you mentioned that struggles against the Giants. Remember that is a rival. Now, you’re facing kind of a team. You don’t play often. You get a kind of a day off. They didn’t play yesterday, I don’t think. Get a little day off. I like the spot for the Dodgers.

TC Martin:

They had a day off yesterday. Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I like the spot, at least early for the Dodgers. I’m going to keep banking on a Gonsolin first five, which is come in pretty efficiently.

TC Martin:

Yeah. I love betting teams like this that the good teams that I have confidence in. Obviously, Dodgers still one of the better teams coming off of losing streaks that they’re going to get right here and even doubling down sometimes in these occasions.

TC Martin:

But what scared me off of it a little bit, and you mentioned, Jeff, the Syndergaard, how good he was against Boston. And Syndergaard has been good in the last couple starts. I’ve been on Gonsolin, I like Gonsolin, he is going deeper into games. And the thing with that Dodger series, they outhit the Giants basically in every game. And they had runners on base in every, any, like I just gave you the numbers. I mean, insane numbers with two for 20 and runners and scoring positions. So, they’ve got to bounce back. You figure they’re going to bounce back.

TC Martin:

And against the Angels team, it makes a lot of sense. So, I do like your play, especially I think that they can jump on these guys early. But Syndergaard for me, it just kind of kept me off of it. Maybe will I jump into this a little bit later on in the evening possibly, but we’ll have to see here. Okay. So, BaseWinner is going to pass on it. Jeff is going to jump in on a first five here with the Dodgers in lay 125.

TC Martin:

All right. Let’s go to the questions, guys. And remember, before we hit the questions we want you to like and to subscribe to the show and the channel here at MLB show at BetUS TV. And hit us with the questions here and also follow us on Twitter, @BetUSTV. And of course, follow us individually as well, too, on our own Twitter handles. And remember hit that bell, that way you can get the notifications when we go live Monday through Friday at 12:00 noon Eastern right here in BetUS TV.

TC Martin:

All right. Let’s start with the questions here. And where are we going? What we starting here today with Mark Holms. Mark wants some thoughts on the Pardes and the Cubs today asking about if the weather is going to hurt or help the total. Well, the wind’s blowing out tonight. It’s supposed to. It’s kind of hard to, six, seven hours in advance, but I know that the total’s nine and a half in this game. Looks like it’s Southwest. So, that is out at Wrigley Field. So, I would say that would help the total, if you like the over in this game. How about a pitching matchup here, BaseWinner with the Cubs and the Padres?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I thought that was a really good question. And I think it deserves an adequate response. So, hopefully I can help you, Mark. First of all, if you take a look @basewinner.com, I have the weather up there, which really helps out, particularly in Chicago. And I’ve got gusting out 23 mile an hour towards centerfield.

Mark Borchard:

And so, does this help the underdog or hurt the underdog? And I think for me, as a rule, it’s going to help the underdog, particularly with the Cubs. Because I think that these guys take a look … I think their front office takes a look at the makeup of the team. And they understand that when the wind blows out, hey, we want some good hitters for when the wind blows out.

Mark Borchard:

And I think in this particular case, I’ve got this priced out and I looked because I like Manaea. I think he’s a good pitcher. And I have it priced at minus 212 for the Padres. And I looked at that, and the weather kind of took me off it. And it’s a really good question. So, should you play it? I’ve got it priced up Padres minus 212. But I’m electing not to play it because I think that the wind blowing out will favor the Cubs.

Mark Borchard:

And one of the other things, if you look at Manaea’s expected ground ball rate, and this is based on his launch angle, it’s a 33%, which is really, really low compared that with Hendrix who has a higher projected ground ball rate based on his launch angle. And I think that if you’re looking at fly balls, I don’t think you want to give up a lot of fly balls with the wind. So, even though I do have it priced with the Padre with the significant edge based on the components because of the weather, I’m not going to play this one, but that was a great question, Mark. Thanks.

TC Martin:

Okay. Jeff, you can jump in with that if you want or also take this one here. Speaking of totals here also, Beckham wants to know about the Blue Jays over in this game. Any thoughts about the blue Jays today?

Jeff Nadu:

Well, I will say, I mean you have dangerously excessive heat warnings in Chicago. I mean, it’s very hot. I mean, you’re talking about heat indices at like 110, 108. It’s very hot. As Mark alluded to, ball flying out there. It’s going to be balmy in Chicago. As far as, I don’t know, you got Lyles and Kikuchi for the Blue Jays and Baltimore. The two guys that I have no interest in betting on. I’d have to imagine runs are on the cards in that game.

Jeff Nadu:

Blue Jays continued to really just destroy the ball. I mean they crushed Baltimore last night. Yeah. I mean, both these games I would lean over. But it’s interesting guys, this card I know there’s a lot of games, but as you kind of like peel the onion back here, I’m not real high on a lot of these games. I’m curious, I want to talk about Oakland here. I don’t know if anyone answer about that, but I’m sure we’ll get to it.

TC Martin:

Okay. Both of those games that we just talked about nine and a half with the over. Jeff, go ahead and talk about that. I know dirty deeds actually was asking a question about this game as well, too, with the A’s and the Red Sox. But go ahead and give us some thoughts on the A’s.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I’m fascinated by it. I mean, you have this kid, Jared Koenig. I did a little digging on this cat, Jared Koenig, 28 years old, was drafted way back in 2014 in the 35th round. Overall pick 10, 38. We didn’t see him pitch in this really at anything above independently. He was out of the country for a while, pitching in Australia. Then all of a sudden turned up in 2020, 2021 pitched some minor league stuff down in the Pacific Coast League, little double A in 2021.

Jeff Nadu:

Now all of a sudden, he is making a start for the Oakland A’s here, a couple of starts. First start, didn’t go real well over four innings recently. Now, he’s going up against a pretty good Red Sox group. And I know we don’t love Nick Pivetta, but it seems like a good spot in Fenway. This Koenig, I got some real worries about him here. We know this Oakland team is bad. I might just lean Boston or whatever price you have.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Koenig, he’s a Bay Area kid. Actually, he’s a Monterey kid. And you mentioned Pacific Coast League. He was with the A’s organization early on in his career. And then they basically kind of gave up on him. And now he’s back. Like you said, I believe at what, age 31. So, it is interesting that A’s are starving for pitching as we know because they can’t pitch Paul Blackburn every day as we know.

Mark Borchard:

Why not? Let’s pitch Paul Blackburn. Paul Blackburn’s turning a new leaf in my numbers. He’s getting better, I think. Well, hope he pitches this week we talk about him.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, this really, you have to wonder though with Oakland, I mean, we’ve talked in the past about like these guys that make their debuts in their mid-20s, late 20s. Maybe his debuted at 27, really kind of goes to show really the desperation of some of these teams that need pitching. I mean, they’re willing to take shots on pretty much anybody. I mean, if you’ve pitched at some point, you might have a chance to pitch in the major leagues at some point.

Mark Borchard:

TC has.

TC Martin:

You want me to loosen up the arm again?

Mark Borchard:

I think he was a pretty good pitcher in his day. Sacramento Sports Hall of Fame, man.

TC Martin:

Look at you. So, here’s a question from Darrell, one of your favorites. He wants the three teamer here. He’s asking Dodgers, Red Sox, raised three teamer. BaseWinner, are you going to sign off on that one?

Mark Borchard:

Are you talking about like a favorite three team. I’ve got two actually today.

TC Martin:

I know that we should have the weekly Jennifer dog three team parlay, but this sounds like, yeah.

Mark Borchard:

This is my three team.

TC Martin:

Your favorite three teams. [inaudible 00:41:22].

Mark Borchard:

I had a three teamer underdog, but that Washington pitching change took me off of it. So, my two team underdog parlay, Baltimore plus 180, Oakland plus 192. I’m seeing a little bit of value playing the dogs there. My three team money line parlay, Mets, Yankees, Giants, risk one to win 2.7. That’s not too bad.

TC Martin:

To Darrell’s question, Dodgers can endorse that. Red Sox could endorse that. Rays maybe a live dog against the Yankees, but you’re banking that Cole’s not going to have a good start again. That’s the shaky one there. But if you want to take a shot, I mean, you’d be getting a lot of plus money there to help those favorites out. So, I don’t know. I mean like I mentioned, Kluber’s been pretty decent. I don’t know.

Mark Borchard:

I don’t think so. I think that that’s hard for Yankees. I do really like Jeff’s play though. I think that that was really well thought out if you just distill it down to Gonsolin versus Syndergaard. And then offensively, this Dodger offense versus the Angels offense, I mean, they’re 16 points better from a way to run creative plus the Dodgers are. So, I think maybe if you want to parlay the Dodgers with something, maybe do it like Jeff did. I think that’s a pretty good play, Jeff.

TC Martin:

Okay.

Jeff Nadu:

Thank you.

TC Martin:

All right, guys, let’s take a look at our best bets for the day as we wrap it up here on a Tuesday full slate of games. And Jeff’s going to go with the Dodgers here with the first five. They’re going to have to outscore the Angels in the first five is going to lay 120 for five. For that, I think you added another play there too, right Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Giants team total over four and half.

TC Martin:

Giants team total over four and a half. That’s not on the board there, but so two plays for Jeff there today. BaseWinner is going with the White Sox in the first five lane 120 in their game here today. The White Sox against Detroit on the road. And then he’s going with the two team parlay with the two heavy favorites. He’s taking the Yankees and the Giants that’ll pay in the vicinity around basically even money or plus 108 to 110 there, depending on what lines you actually get. And there you go, and then I am going with Cleveland today. That is my play. All right.

Jeff Nadu:

How about those Warriors last night, TC? We called out.

TC Martin:

We nailed it, didn’t we? We nailed it. There it was. Warriors came up big again last night without Steph Curry being really much of a factor. But man, say what you want about the Warriors, Clay Thompson did his thing. Andrew Wiggins even got some good bench production from Gary Payton II. Yeah. Warrior is in a good spot as they go to Boston now to try to close this thing out in game six. That’s the question, Jeff, do you think they close it out in six?

Jeff Nadu:

I do. I hate Boston. I’m not, like I said I hate them that’s why I’m picking them. But no, I do. I think, I don’t understand. Look, I guess Ime Udoka will say, well, you only had 16 last night, but this stupid drop coverage, it sucks. And look, all of a sudden now you’re dropping coverage and other people are still beating you. So, yeah, concerning for them.

Jeff Nadu:

They have a lot of unsung heroes. I’ve always said, I thought the Warriors are the best team. They’re just stacked. Yeah. I think they go and beat Boston. I think Boston’s just kind of been unearthed and we’ve kind of figured out what they are now. Either way, you have two opportunities to win one game if you’re the Warriors, you might get one of them even at home. So, yeah, I think they do it though.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Celtics, the inconsistency beat them again. It has been the problem with this team going in these long series of seven game series prior to this one and the Warriors experience just holding over here right now.

TC Martin:

So, we’ll see. Like I said, as long as the Warriors don’t get a little careless, which we’ve seen them do before, especially with the turnovers, but really this series has been about the turnovers where Boston, every time they commit at least 16 turnovers, they lose. And that happened again last night. So, BaseWinner, we know that you were watching basketball last night.

Mark Borchard:

I didn’t watch any of that game. Isn’t that terrible?

TC Martin:

The wife didn’t let you, right?

Mark Borchard:

No. We had nothing to do with that actually. I was watching baseball. I missed that Phillie comeback because I was out fixing my pool. And I came back in to see the highlights, and the Phillies were clutch last night. That’s a tough loss for Jeff, I think, because Alcantara pitch really good. Yeah. I don’t know.

Jeff Nadu:

Listen, if we didn’t have bullpens, I would be up this year. It’s just that simple. But you do. And this just is what it is.

TC Martin:

Crazy game of baseball. I was victimized last night with the bullpen with the Astros bullpen last night. You bring in Hector Neris, that’s always a nightmare and that’s exactly what happened. Astros had a three, nothing lead last night and the bullpen cost them specifically one guy. And they couldn’t throw out base runners as Texas went crazy and what stole three bases in the late innings with that game. And Texas didn’t even hit the ball out of the infield there in one inning as well, too. So, yeah, bullpens, that’s part of baseball as we know, guys. Got to live and die with it.

Mark Borchard:

You know what I think Houston’s bullpen’s pretty good. But see even a good bullpen can blow sails. You know what I mean? So, you’re right in that regard. It’s like, even you can handicap it. I mean, yeah, this team’s got the best bullpen in the game and they can still blow the save for you. And that’s one of the joys of MLB betting full game baseball.

TC Martin:

And that’s the thing people got to remember about bullpens, guys. Okay. There are 12 pitchers, 12 to 13 pitchers in that bullpen. And like in the Astros, I just used them as an example, their two best didn’t get in the game last night. They had three-nothing lead. They never even got to Pressly and Montero, who pitched the last two days. So, he was not going to pitch last night.

TC Martin:

So, therefore you got to go to Maton, you got to go to Neris. They’re not really good. But again, when this is what managers do nowadays. They’re not going to use guys, especially their closers or their setup guys, and back to back, or back to back to back games. So, sometimes you just got to say, “Oh, hopefully the offense is going to outscore.” We talked about Javier yesterday, Jeff. Javier did his job. He did his job yesterday, but the bullpen didn’t. But again, that’s baseball. Couple hard luck losers yesterday.

TC Martin:

All right, guys, appreciate as always. We reconvene tomorrow again here at 12:00 noon Eastern Time. Make sure that you hit that bell. Get the notifications when we go live. Like and subscribe to the MLB show with us five days a week here and also on BetUS TV. And also hit us and follow us on Twitter too, @BetUSTV.

TC Martin:

All right, remember to check out our sportsbook website. For the BaseWinner, for Jeff Nadu, TC Martin saying so long. We’ll see you tomorrow at noon right here on the MLB show on BetUS TV.