TC Martin:

It was. But congratulations, you hit the run, hits, and errors prop yesterday, the under 23, Matt hat, I think it added up to being around 18 or something like that. So, you got there by a comfortable margin. And again, what we talked about yesterday handicapped in a low scoring game. And it really looked low-scoring until the late innings there. Yankees finally won again four-to-two. But the Yankees keep rolling base winner on and on and on and on.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. You think that, if they were to be down or the momentum were to have been turned, it would’ve been after that Sunday game where they blew the eight-three lead. But I didn’t watch the end of that game. Maybe Matt did. Did Clay Holmes give up runs at the end of that game? That’s a mid story right there.

Matt Josephs:

Yeah. It was, one of them was a ground ball to the pitcher, and then it was a sack fly. He gave up a double, I think, the Travino. He wasn’t himself, that’s for sure.

Mark Borchard:

Watching that guy pitch, sometimes, you look at a guy, and I felt that way when I watched Fried pitch the first few innings yesterday. Anyway, just everything was just on. And you’re like how is this team going to get a run? And I was on the Giants and TC had the Braves yesterday. And you’d think, well, how is this team going to get a run? And then, with the Giants yesterday, the guy gets picked off at Louis Gonzalez. He gets picked off of a first base. It’s like that’s probably the worst thing you needed. But I thought Fried looked really good. And then, when I watched Clay Holmes pitch, it’s like, how are they going to hit this guy? But apparently, they did last night.

Mark Borchard:

And I guess, TC, the Braves, I was flipping back and forth on that game yesterday. But I guess there was a bunt, a sawed-off base hit, and they walked a guy to load the bases there in this seventh inning. Did you watch that?

TC Martin:

No, but I had it on the radio because I was out in about all day yesterday. So, I was catching bits and parts of that. And I did hear that. And then they ended up stranding runners. And the brakes stranded, all kinds of runners. They had all kinds of opportunities yesterday. But Fried was great. Webb was good as well, too. It came down to the bullpen. And it came down to some basically timely hitting, some Giants’ mistakes, like you mentioned.

TC Martin:

So, we talked about that yesterday, how we expect a low scoring close game. That’s exactly what we got yesterday in the Braves win in the bottom of the ninth. So, again, the Yankees raise game, what we talked about yesterday, low scoring, good pitching matchup. Same thing with the Giants and the Braves. And that’s what we got yesterday.

TC Martin:

So, we’ll see what we get today, guys, all right? So, before we move on to today’s games, let’s take a look at our updated records. And we’ll give you that here as well, too. So, I went one-on-one yesterday. Basewinner, what was your recommendation to this?

Mark Borchard:

I just pulled out, Burns was electric yesterday.

TC Martin:

Yes, nice call.

Mark Borchard:

And then the Brewers guy, it’s hard to bet that team, though, because those Brewers just seemed to not get runs when he pitches. But the two-run homerun, I think it was Tyrone Taylor that hit it. And that’s all they needed. He was damn good last night. So, not good for my NOLA side young bet. But he was good for the play yesterday.

TC Martin:

Bears now won four in a row. And like we mentioned, Matt hit his prop play yesterday when he runs, hits in errors under total of in the Tampa Bay Yankee game. So, let’s press on, guys. Today, we are going to look at five games on the board. And let’s start with the Colorado Rockies and the Miami Marlins. Ryan Feltner and Daniel Castano, those are the pitchers of record that will start this game here. The Miami Marlins. A dollar 23 favorite total in this game is eight slightly shaded towards the over in this game, minus 115. Matt, we’ll let you start us off on this game.

Matt Josephs:

All right. So, I think the better play, which unfortunately BetUS does an offer is the first five run total over for the Rockies. It’s one a half in other places. But I think the Rockies are going to win this first five innings. They hit lefties. That’s all there is to it. They’re hitting 289 against them, the fourth highest OPS. And look, it’s a scary situation that they’re on the road. We know how the Rockies do on the road. But if you look, they’ve had some success lately on the road. They went to San Diego, hit about Blake Snell, hit MacKenzie gore pretty well, too. And Castano’s very mediocre to me. I remember, last year, he didn’t strike out a lot of guys. He had a lot of runners on base. And I know he’s coming off a solid outing against the Phillies, but having watched the Phillies, they at times have these weird outings where they struggle against these nobodies.

Matt Josephs:

So, I’m going to take a chance, Colorado on the road. I like this Feltner kid, too. The one worry with Feltner is this is his second time seeing the Marlins. So, will he make adjustments? Obviously, it’s outside. Of course, he had seven strikeouts in cores, which is fantastic for him. I really like the kid, but I want to see what he does the second time against the team. I’ll take a chance on the Rockies plus a half in the first five. I want nothing to do with the Rockies bullpen. I know the Marlins bullpen isn’t great. But just give me the first five innings plus a half a run, I’ll take the Rockies in this one.

TC Martin:

Okay. And we know that the Miami Marlins have been struggling, especially at the plate. I try to make a case for the Marlins in this game, but I just couldn’t do it. Like you said, Matt, Colorado on the road, for the most part, I’m going to stay away from that. Basewinner, how do you look at this pitching match-up? Because to the naked eye, it looks like it’s pretty ugly.

Mark Borchard:

I’m not that down on Feltner. I actually have him better than average. I have him in an 86 run number, so 14% better than average. I don’t like Castano. I have him 6% worse. And it’s interesting. I think Matt’s making a really good choice, not incorporating the Colorado bullpen in this game.

Mark Borchard:

If I just price it on the five inning line. And both teams’ offenses are not high, by my ratings. I’ve got the Rockies 22nd against [inaudible] splits 22nd. And then I have the Marlins 21st. But the five inning money line price that I have on this game is minus 119. So, Matt, I think it’s a good play. I think that’s probably the way to go on this game, is to get rid of that lousy Colorado bullpen.

TC Martin:

I think it’s probably the only way to play because it’s hard to make a case for either side in this game. Like you said, from a pitching standpoint, yes, Feltner advantaged over Castano, but again Rockies on the road. So, I think the way to play this game is if you want to get involved in it. So, let’s lock Matt in for his play here today on this taking the Colorado Rockies, actually getting plus a half a run here in the first five. That is the first five with the Colorado Rockies.

TC Martin:

All right, next up, guys, let’s take a look at Philadelphia and Texas. And Kyle Gibson, the former ranger, actually Kyle Gibson, former couple different teams, but last two years, he’s pitched for the Texas Rangers. He’ll go up against Martin Perez. In this game, you’ve got the Rangers, a dollar 14 favorite. So, virtually pick him in this game. Total is a minus 115 towards the over in this game. Basewinner, what do you think about Martin Perez going against Kyle Gibson?

Mark Borchard:

Well, you’ve heard of recency bias, TC, right?

TC Martin:

Yes.

Mark Borchard:

So, I might be a victim of history bias on this one because I’ve been betting against Perez, it seems like, for the last 15 years. But I look at his stuff plus number and it’s a one-percentile. And I say, I want to bet against this guy. And so, he’s not really changed his pitch mix. He’s got the same pitch mix that he always has. And what’s concerning, though, if playing against Perez, and if you just even go to my site, he’s got a Basewinner expected ERA of 3.74. And you say, “Well, that’s pretty good, Basewinner.” His ERA, 2.1, is completely unsustainable, in my opinion.

Mark Borchard:

So, you say, “Well, Basewinner, your own number says that he’s better than average. And I’ve got him in the model at 1.02. So, what gives here?” Well, I do a triple expected ERA. Call it a three-metric ERA. I think I’m going to call it a triple-X ERA because I have the Basewinner ERA that just takes walks and strikeout percentage. But this takes swinging strike percentage, walks balls divided by pitches, which takes it into account a pitch by pitch scenario. And then launch angle gives you that ground ball percentage.

Mark Borchard:

And if you look, the last three starts, Martin Perez’ triple-X ERA, 5.45, 6.51, 4.79. So, that’s certainly not impressive. So, what I’m going to do is I’m going to play the over four and a half on Philly. You’re getting plus money, plus 1.05. And Philly has been second in baseball from a plate discipline standpoint, the last 14 days. And ISO power versus left-handed pitching third in baseball.

Mark Borchard:

So, a couple good stats there for the Philly’s offensive. The offensive numbers are good for Philly. And I can’t see Perez as a high-level pitcher. I know it’ll probably make the all-star game, TC. We’ve talked about this. And his ERA says he should. And who else is going to go from Texas? But I think if you look at the real deep granular statistics, I think this guy… the other thing I wanted to mention his homerun to fly ball, 2.7%. And league average is 11%. So, Philly’s with some power. I wouldn’t be surprised if… Perez is only allowed two homeruns all year, which I think is lucky. Wouldn’t be surprised if Philly gets a couple home runs here, TC.

TC Martin:

I think that a lot of us are waiting for the other shoe to drop, so to speak, with Martin Perez. And we’ve seen a little bit of that recently. He had a good start last time out, even though we got a no decision. But start before he was ripped pretty good, gave up seven runs against the White Sox, and lasted only five innings. So, I think that’s the concern to Perez as the season goes on. And this guy has not garnished a decision in the month of June, basically because he doesn’t have a whole lot of run support behind him as well, too. I think, overall, he’s got pretty good stuff. But again, like you said, Basewinner, it’s not electric. And I think we’re starting to see a little bit of inconsistency with Perez.

TC Martin:

You’re right. The numbers look good. The ERA is spectacular in that sense. So, then, I would just say one thing. And before I turn over to Matt here, too, with the Phillies, and Matt has a good beat on this team as well, too, when are we going to see the Phillies revert back to the Phillies that we saw a month or so ago? Bryce Harper, keep an eye on him again. He’s got that hand injury where he’s got this blister. And like Bryce said, he goes, “I’ve had this blisters before, but never an infected blister.” So, he’s been taking antibiotics, good chance he may not play today. Again, he’s missed the last couple games. So, that may play into potential homeruns for the Phillies of the offense. And again, you hate taking Bryce Harper out of your lineup. But interesting matchup here today. And then Kyle Gibson going against his former team. Matt, your thoughts with all this?

Matt Josephs:

So, this is also partially, as you said, me being too close to the team. Certainly, I think at first, you had the Philly’s side of it, too. Was that right, Basewinner, originally in this [inaudible]?

Mark Borchard:

Philly is over four and a half plus 1.05. That’s how I’m playing it.

Matt Josephs:

I thought I remember seeing in the spreadsheet originally, you just had the Philly’s money line on there. But I could be wrong because I might have misread it.

Mark Borchard:

I was confused as to what I was going to do. So, I just put PHI on the sheet. So, it gave me a little bit of flexibility, Matt.

TC Martin:

That’s why you’re confusing us. I understand.

Mark Borchard:

Yes. So, Perez pitch well against the Phillies back in May in Philadelphia, obviously a tougher ballpark to pitch. So, that’s something to consider. And look, I’ll throw out the June 11th thing. Well, FD White Sox, we know how that usually goes. So, I’ll throw that out. And I’ll thank him. The K prop was three and a half in that one. He gets the four strikeout in the lasting. He probably shouldn’t have pitched. So, he’s one of my guys for now. But I look, as you guys said, I need to see the lineup tonight. If Bryce Harper’s going to play, I think that makes a big difference. At some point, Castellanos has to do something for him. He’s been a slumber. There are some guys of good numbers against him. Bom has good numbers against him. Didi Gregorius has good numbers against him.

Mark Borchard:

I’m always ready to back the Phillies’ offense whenever I can. I’m just not a Kyle Gibson guy, either. I think Kyle Gibson is as mediocre a pitcher as you can get. So, I see that the Phillies could get some runs tonight. I also think if Martin Perez from May 4th shows up, they may struggle. So, I’ll root you on for this, especially at a plus price. That’s not bad. But I am a little concerned that if there is no Bryce Harper and Castellanos is still cold. They might struggle a little bit for runs.

TC Martin:

All right, let’s put Basewinner down for this one. Take any shot with the Philadelphia Phillies, a team total in this one over four and a half runs, going to get plus 1.05 on this. Can the Phillies get to Martin Perez four and a half is the number.

TC Martin:

All right. Next up, guys, the Mets are taking on the Astros in a resting match up here in a league matchup with the Astros a dollar 26 favorite plus 116 on the pretty red hot Met still. Total in this game, nine at minute-made park, slightly shaded towards the under at minus 115. Trevor Williams going for the Mets, Jose Urquidy going for the Astros here today.

TC Martin:

As we know, guys, I’m not a Trevor Williams fan at all. I always look to go against Trevor Williams. Bur Urquidy has been wildly inconsistent. You’re just not exactly sure what you’re going to get with Urquidy. ERA has ballooned up to over five at this point in time. A couple more question marks with the Astros’ lineup here today. Yordan Alvaez who has been their best hitter, so far, this season locking in the number four spot. He has been injured. Not sure if he’s going to come back or not today. He’s got a hand injury. Dusty’s thinking maybe one more day, he’ll rest him here. So, got to look at the lineup. Peña’s out as well. Diaz is out as well. Even though Diaz is the all-everything who’s been filling in for Peña. So, the Astros have some holes. And we know that the Mets are a red, hot hitting team here. For me, tough game to figure out here. We could see a good Urquidy. We could see a bad Urquidy. Basewinner, some thoughts on this game.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, it’s a tough game for me as well, TC. I’ve got a price at minus 116. So, it’s right around where the market is. But you mentioned that the health of the team, if you don’t know, it’s probably not a good idea to play anything in this game. But one thing, and Matt, maybe you can confirm this for me, because it’s really bizarre for me to see this. If you look at the Astros, they’re just their runs per game. They’re at… this is offense, 4.26, which places them below league average. But if you look at their two stats that I think are pretty darn important in evaluating the efficiency, the ability of an offense, you look at their ISO power. They’re third in baseball, 175 ISO power. League average is around 150. And then if you look at their plate discipline, this is a full season. Their second in baseball walks divided by strikeouts 0.47. So, to me, I think that the underlying metrics offensively say that this Astros team is not a 4.26 run team, I think they’re right. I think they’re a little bit over five, personally.

Matt Josephs:

I’m looking at their strikeouts as of late. They’re an underteam predominantly, as they always have been, it feels like. The last time they had more than five strikeouts was almost a month ago. Chris Flexon had six strikeouts, which is crazy to think about. But I think it’s also the injuries. And if I remember correctly, they also started this season slow in terms of offense. And I really wanted to play them first five. But as you guys talked about, we don’t know about these question marks in the lineup. And I don’t trust Urquidy either. And when I’m a guy that goes off the starting pitching for the most part for my handicapping, if I don’t either guy, it’s an easy pass for me.

TC Martin:

Yup. And that’s the way I feel about this game as well, too. So, I think it’s a pass for all of us here in this situation. And possibly, maybe an over to look at in this game as well, too, guys, especially with guys that are very, very hittable that may be one way to go. And especially, you got some big right-handed bats at minute made park, something to think about as well, too.

TC Martin:

All right. Let’s move on to the next game, though. And we’ll look at St. Louis and Milwaukee. Basewinner was on this one last night. And the Cardinals will be the favorite today, minus 126. Milwaukee, plus 116. Can you want to ride the streak there of the Milwaukee Brewers? They won four in a row. Cardinals lost a couple in a row. Cardinal’s bats have gone silent. Total misgame though is nine in Milwaukee, minus one 20 towards the over in this game. Jack Flaherty going for the Cardinals. Chi Chi Gonzalez for Milwaukee.

TC Martin:

Interesting match-up here, guys, with Gonzalez who just came over, got cut, basically got waved by Minnesota. The Brewers picked him up for a spot start duty today. We know none of us are a fan of him. And then Jack Flaherty, we still don’t know what’s going on with him. He’s been injured, came back, got his first start last week, was limited to 60 pitches, three innings. He’s going to be another pitch count here today. Again, a tough game to handicap. I was trying to make a case for the Cardinals today, but I got to stay away. Basewinner?

Mark Borchard:

I personally don’t have a play on it. But you bring up a good question with Gonzalez now starting for another team. How many teams can Chi Chi Gonzalez start for this year? Maybe, we should put up a total for that, TC.

TC Martin:

Let me say, this is Hammonager’s fourth team. And this has got to be one of the biggest draft bus, I want to say, of all time, but of recent memory. This guy was a heralded prospect. He was a first round pick by Texas. This goes to show you how Texas missed on this guy, because he has now bounced around to four teams early on in his career here. And this guy can’t pitch. His ERA has gotten progressively worse, as he’s gotten more starts in the major leagues. This guy is horrendous.

Mark Borchard:

No, the guys… Yeah, go ahead.

TC Martin:

Of course, we know that you can pitch. But again, you just don’t know off the injury. And the Cardinal bats are still asleep. But yeah, Chi Chi Gonzalez, he seems like a go against every time. And this is what the Minnesota Twins think of him. Goodbye, we will pay you to go away.

Mark Borchard:

I think the Brewers, from a depth standpoint, are pretty desperate. I’ve got the game as a bullpen game. So, I’ve got it about as a pick and price. Flaherty, with really not a lot of recent work behind him, I think it’s tough to go either way. I don’t really like the St. Louis bullpen either. And there’s a couple. I made actually a new metric that takes some ISO power. It involves ISO power plus plate discipline stats. And they’re not good in that, either. They’re 21st. But they’re 27th on the command metric on the bullpen chart. And I’m going to stay away from this one, TC. I can’t really make a case for either team.

TC Martin:

Matt?

Matt Josephs:

I was the one who made the pick. You guys laid it out for me. I’m playing Chi Chi Gonzalez. That’s it. I’m taking the Cardinals’ first five. Once again, this is another case of my better play is actually either taking in the books. It’s ironic, the books will not put up any Chi Chi Gonzalez stats. No strikeouts, no outs, no hits allow, no nothing. So, it’s frustrating on that end. But I did take on a different place over two and a half runs for the Cardinals’ first five, since I can’t do that on BetUS.

Matt Josephs:

The play is the Cardinals’ first five. I’m isolating Chi Chi Gonzalez. I’m isolating him. And look, for those who are considering Jack Flaherty or anything today, the word is 75 pitches max. So, for him, that could be five innings. So, once again, I will take that five innings. I want nothing to do with the Cardinals bullpen. I want nothing to do with anything else. My favorite play is taking the Cardinals run total for the first five. But since I can’t do it on BetUS, I will take the Cardinals’ money line in the first five and hope Chi Chi Gonzalez is Chi Chi Gonzalez.

TC Martin:

There you go, just goes according to form, exactly. All right. Lock Matt in for that play. And we should just put up on the board, Matt versus Chi Chi Gonzalez… against Chi Chi Gonzalez. There’s the play right there. Cardinals’ first five minus 140 against Chi Chi Gonzalez. There you go.

Mark Borchard:

Matt, just a quick question. Do you think he’s going to pitch more than two innings, though?

Matt Josephs:

He went four. He went four against the Rays. He went three against the Blue Jays. I think so, yeah. And even if he doesn’t, who’s the middle long relief guy for the-

Mark Borchard:

For the throwers. I have some issues with the bottom and the underbelly of that bullpen. I would agree with you.

Matt Josephs:

Right. So, that’s why I’m going with the five, assuming that Chi Chi gives me four. And that’s also why I like the run total more than this. But I’ll take the money line because I’m going to assume the Cardinals should be able to hit this guy. If the Cardinals, much like how you don’t certain pitchers, if the Cardinals can’t get at least a couple runs on Chi Chi Gonzalez, they’re on my shit list for forever.

Mark Borchard:

I would agree. I would agree with everything you’re saying. My only thing is, how deep is Chi Chi? What are they going to give him, two innings, three innings? But maybe that’s enough, because the guy’s really brutal. He’s really bad, I agree with that.

TC Martin:

Mark, I don’t think that Craig council would bring this guy in and sign him and throw him in today’s game if he was just going to be the “opener.” Because the reason they signed him to bring him in because they need a starter, they need a guy to at least go four or five innings for him today. They wouldn’t have started him and signed him, because they signed him specifically for this spot start. So, if you’re going to do that, that tells me we need another starter. Hopefully, this guy just needs a change of scenery because they could just go with one of their bullpen guys if they were going to make it a bullpen day. So, that tells me that, yeah, the council may let this guy rot out there today, because he wants to save his bullpen. And we’ve seen managers do this before.

TC Martin:

And again, like I said, maybe he lasts four, five, six innings. I think that’s what the council’s hoping for in this game, because this guy doesn’t have any injuries. The guy just stinks. And I think council just says, “I got to save my back end of the bullpen.” And they got great performance, as you know, yesterday from Burns who went seven. So, Hader only went to one inning. The setup guy only went one inning. So, very easily that you could see that today. If you’re thinking about playing the Brewers here today, that, maybe if you can get through four or five with Chi Chi, that you’re going to see Hader at the end.

Mark Borchard:

Good enough. I don’t know with counsel. Didn’t he start Wade Miley versus the Dodgers in the playoffs and he got pitched, one pitch? It’s like here’s a foil to all handicappers out there who put Miley in for four or five innings.

TC Martin:

It’s true.

Mark Borchard:

It was like, you damn jerk.

TC Martin:

Exactly. All right. So, we’ve got Matt with the play here with the Cardinal’s first five against Chi Chi. Kansas City against the Angels tonight in Anaheim. Jonathan Heasley going against Reid Detmers in this one. Angels a dollar 58 favorite. Total in this game is nine. If you like the underdog, plus 143 with the Royals here. And I throw that out there because we’ve seen that Royals cover as an underdog here and the Angels just continue to have problems. They put a little mini-winning streak together there a few days ago. But they’re right back where they are. And again, that Anthony Rendon injury, who’s now out for the year, that’s messed with them. They’ve had several injuries. The pitching aspects, the Joe Maddon firing. I look at this Angels team and I just continue to shake my head. I want no part of this team. It’s really Mike Trout, really, and Otani and nobody else.

TC Martin:

And then Kansas City. I’ll say this about Kansas city. They’re like Pittsburgh. They’ll go out there, and they’ll put out an effort. They’ve got some decent bats. We understand that. But obviously, pitching is the big concern there for KC. Basewinner, give us some thoughts on this game. And we can play it.

Mark Borchard:

I’m going to play the over in this game. And it’s just like, how else would you play this game? You got Detmers. And if you look at his… So, maybe, it’s priced at nine. I’m going to play the over. I’ve got 10.7 runs. The weather’s pretty good in Anaheim. So, I don’t think it’s going to really… it’s not going to hurt us. If anything, it’s going to help us.

Mark Borchard:

But I’m just trying to think from a devil’s advocate standpoint, why is this priced at nine? And maybe, it’s because people are taking a look at the regular ERA of these guys and you got Detmers at 4.25, 4.25. It’s somewhat serviceable. And Heasley’s ERA actually 3.72. But you look at their expected ERA. And I think there’s 203 guys here on the Basewinner leaderboard at my website.

Mark Borchard:

But if you take a look at Detmers, he’s at 5.04 from an expected ERA. And Heasley’s at 5.99. And in the model, I have these guys priced at… one guy is the worst guy or the second worst guy in baseball. That’s Heasley. I have him 149th out of 150 pitchers. I’ve got Detmer’s 137th out of 150 pitchers.

Mark Borchard:

And one of the reasons I’ve used this athletic pitch plus comparison, it’s not in the model, I just like to look at it, just to see, well, am I off-base on these guys? And I’m looking at the stuff plus metric for Detmers. He’s in the 16th percentile. I’m looking at the pitching plus metric for Heasley. He’s in the 24th percentile.

Mark Borchard:

And then these offenses are pretty decent. The angels, I have 11th in baseball. And the Royals, I’ve got, well, 103, better than average, 21st in baseball. But if you look at this Royals’ plate discipline over the last 14 days, they’re fifth in baseball. I think that’d be surprising to a lot of people. And I think, for all those reasons, I think the over is the only way to go here, TC.

TC Martin:

Okay, over for Basewinner. Matt?

Matt Josephs:

I don’t hate it. I’m mad at the Royals right now because I had under four and a half strikeouts for Thor last night. And he snuck that fifth one in the seventh inning when I figured he probably should have been out. But whatever. Thor pitched well enough. They’ve given up that homerun. He probably shouldn’t have been in that inning. But whatever, that was yesterday.

Matt Josephs:

Look, we’ve talked about Detmers on this show. Detmers just hasn’t been very good. He doesn’t go deep in games. And that brings in a bullpen that’s not very good. And Heasley’s weird. I’ve seen a lot of sharps in my industry who love the K-pop over for Heasley. And the Angels are striking out a ton. But I don’t necessarily trust him on the road. You look at that Giant’s effort. You look at the efforts he’s had against the Guardians and the Diamondbacks and the White Sox and things like that. So, he’s a different pitcher on the road. And they don’t have a good bullpen, either.

Matt Josephs:

So, I could see your case for the over. I certainly understand it, because these are two pitchers who are certainly capable of giving up runs. My worry is just the Royal’s offense isn’t the best offense in the world. So, they’re going to have to contribute a little bit, even it’s just two or three runs. Heasley in that pen can give up about five or six runs. You just need the Royals to do something for you. And I think they can against Detmers this evening.

TC Martin:

All right. We’re going to lock Basewinner for this. He’s going to go with the over in this game with the Royals and the Angels over nine, rooting for a little offense from both teams lane 120. Again, the number nine in this game, it’s Detmers and it’s Heasley.

TC Martin:

All right, we’ll get to the Q&A part of the show. Hit us on your questions here inside the chat room. Talk about any games that we hit on, or some ones that we didn’t talk about today. And then, we’ll break it down for you. And let’s start with the Toronto Blue Jays and the Chicago White Sox. Jefferson wants an opinion on that one. I looked at this game, too, guys. And Gausman and Cease had the Blue Jays yesterday fell behind. They rallied back, did not get the job done. I would’ve loved to bounce back again on Toronto today.

TC Martin:

But believe it or not, Kevin Gausman has scared me off and talked about this. I know how much you like him, Basewinner. But for me, I’m just seeing some signs here. I think I mentioned it about a week or week and a half ago. Is there some injury here? Is it the velocity down, but he’s not striking anyone out and he’s being very, very hittable? I couldn’t pull the trigger. As much as I wanted to play Toronto today, I couldn’t because Gausman sounds weird. Give me some thoughts here. And Dylan Cease.

Mark Borchard:

To me, it was just a dead-on under by the model. And I looked at the weather there in Chicago, and it just scared me off. I think the wind’s blowing out. It’s blowing from the first base dugout to left field. And I’ve been on Gausman pretty much every time. I can tell you the model likes it at minus 161. And I have a 6.3 run projection. I really like both these starting pitchers. I’ve got Gausman at second at 150.

Mark Borchard:

And Cease is the sixth pitcher. But that scared me off that weather. I don’t want to have balls get out of the park. That shouldn’t do that on a normal day. If they were playing this game in Toronto with no weather, I’d play the under in a heartbeat. But the weather scared me off on it. I think Gausman will be okay. His underlying metrics are good. He’s got an 88 percentile pitching or stuff plus number. Dylan Cease, a 93 percentile. Gausman’s pitching plus number in the 100 percentile. So, maybe, there’s a couple relievers that are better than him. But the weather, that was it. That was what kept me off the under in this game, TC.

TC Martin:

Opinion, Matt?

Matt Josephs:

Yeah, the weather is 95 and the wind is blowing out to left. That seems like that could be a recipe for a lot of runs. And you look, let’s just say, if you like Cease, or if you like the White Sox, you’re only going to take them for five. Because if you look five, four and two-thirds, four and two-thirds, he did add the seven against the Cubs. Of course, that doesn’t really count. The Cubs are barely a major league team. But then three, five and two-thirds, four, five. So, if you’re like me and you look at the starting pitchers, you’re going to probably play a first five with the White Sox because you know that Cease will most likely go five, and that’s about it.

Matt Josephs:

And yeah, I was on Gausman, I believe it was the Twins game. And he was very disappointing. And as you said, he’s been very hittable, as of late. I have a small lean to the White Sox’s first five, but I didn’t like it enough because I don’t like what I’m seeing from Cease, either. You could see a very low scoring game if these two pitch up to their potential, but you could also see a slug fest if both of them are struggling with the weather, the way it is.

TC Martin:

All right. Basewinner, Jennifer is back with the parlay. Here we go. Jennifer wants an opinion. Padres, White Sox, Astros, Pirates, Guardians, Orioles, tie them all up in a parlay, Basewinner. What do you think? [inaudible].

Mark Borchard:

Can we slow it down? And I can go by each game and see if there’s value on each game.

TC Martin:

You do that. He didn’t like you to do [inaudible], and added up here. And what would Jennifer get on, say, a $10 parlay?

Mark Borchard:

Well, do you have the MLB odds up right now? We can go down each one. And I’ll plug it in if there’s value. So, we’ll start with what’s the first game?

TC Martin:

So, the Padres. So, the Padres, she’d be actually laying 135 on the Padres.

Mark Borchard:

So, I’m going to say that that’s a play, because I have it minus 137. So, we’ll plug that in the calculator, that one. What’s the next game?

TC Martin:

And then, she wants White Sox. They would be getting, basically, plus 120.

Mark Borchard:

I would say don’t play that, because I like the Blue Jays there. What’s the next game?

TC Martin:

Astros, 130 with the Astros.

Mark Borchard:

I’ve got the Astros at minus 216. So, let’s go to the next game.

TC Martin:

Pirates.

Mark Borchard:

What’s the price there?

TC Martin:

Minus 155.

Mark Borchard:

That’s a play. I got it minus 166. What’s the next one?

TC Martin:

Guardians.

Mark Borchard:

Guardians, write all this down, too, TC. [inaudible].

TC Martin:

Guardians re plus 155 in the neighborhood there.

Mark Borchard:

I’m going to take it. I’m going to take it. It’s right there. I’ve got the Twins minus 154. So, I’ll give it a plus money. So, 155 Guardians.

TC Martin:

And then she said, to top it all off, take those Baltimore Orioles at minus 135.

Mark Borchard:

I got to find the game. I’ve got them at minus 115.

TC Martin:

Just playing with bats, yeah.

Matt Josephs:

So, to me, it’s a three-team parlay. You go with the Padres. You go with the… what was the other game that we had? We had the guardians. And then there was a minus 166 somewhere.

TC Martin:

Well, the Astros, but they’re not 166. So, you had them at 166 [inaudible].

Mark Borchard:

No, it was another game. It was another one.

TC Martin:

White Sox, Pirates, Guardians, Orioles.

Mark Borchard:

Pirates. It’s Pirates, Guardians, Diego parlay think play 6.1 to one. I’ve play it. There we go. There’s our parlay of the day.

TC Martin:

There it is. The underdog par-par with Jennifer and the Basewinner. [inaudible].

Mark Borchard:

Well, there’s some favorites in there, too, but I like the way we did that. We shaved it down to something that was probably unhittable to something that’s possible. So, 6.1 there to one.

TC Martin:

All right, Matt. You want to chime in on any of that?

Matt Josephs:

You can take a $10 bill out of your wallet and you can light it on fire. And that would probably be the same thing as doing that parlay. I just think it’s-

TC Martin:

Fourth of July is around the corner.

Matt Josephs:

I could pick some of these apart. All right. So, you went back the Royals and you went back Jordan Lyles. I like the Orioles. I think they’d be a solid play. They just announced Jordan Lyles. Although, he is coming off of illness. So, who knows how good he’s going to be? The Guardians with Aaron Civale coming off of his injury. So, he’s not going to go very deep against Joe Ryan, who I like. So, I don’t like that part. You’re going to lay a price on the Pirates with Contreras against the Cubs. I know the Cubs stink. And we talked about it yesterday. You guys said that they were wind out. Although, they did get another win. I look at this thing, and for me personally, there’s so many bad pitchers that are getting back here that I couldn’t do this. It’s against my religion to throw Urquidy and Civale and Jordan Lyles in a parlay together.

TC Martin:

There you go.

Mark Borchard:

Joe Ryan-

TC Martin:

Squash [inaudible].

Mark Borchard:

… third luckiest pitcher in baseball. I’m playing against him.

Matt Josephs:

I’m just saying Aaron Civale coming off an injury, I don’t like playing guys coming off injury. I don’t know what I’m going to get from Aaron Civale today. I don’t know how deep he’s going to go. So, maybe, they do a first parlay.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. But if you’re playing, you’re not going to have a perfect bet if you’re playing a plus 155 doggo, Matt. You got to admit to that.

Matt Josephs:

Well, yeah, of course. But I’m not playing this at all. I’m lighting the $5 on fire that I put down on that parlay [inaudible].

Mark Borchard:

Well, I tried to help out. I think that’s six teamers probably unhittable. But maybe the three teamer that we narrowed it down, I like that.

TC Martin:

We’re coming back at this tomorrow. And if those hit, then Jennifer [inaudible].

Mark Borchard:

Jennifer, I’m playing Pirates, Padres, Guardians. I’m playing that, man. Why not?

TC Martin:

There you go. Good stuff here. All right, Marky Mark want some thoughts on Arizona and San Diego today. Matt?

Matt Josephs:

So, that’s Mania and Gall. Zach Gall is just not the same guy on the road as he is on at home. I like him better at home. You look at some of his starts, he had that awful start in Philadelphia. He had a mediocre start in Pittsburgh. And he’s not striking out as many guys. I seem to remember last year, Zach Gall was more of a strikeout pitcher. And it scares me a little bit that he’s not striking out as much. Although, he gets the Padres who are as free swinging as they get right now.

Matt Josephs:

And it’s weird with Mania. Mania, I feel like leads the league in these outings where he gives up three runs. But it’s a quality start, it seems like. I’m looking at his pitching log, and there’s all these threes and fours. And he is coming off and giving up a five at Chicago against the Cubs. I don’t really love either of these two pitchers in this game. But of course the edge offensively goes to the Padres, and probably the bullpen does as well.

TC Martin:

All right. Zero Bob wants to know about some dog plays. So, let’s do this, guys. Give me your best underdog play today, Basewinner. It’s zero above what?

Mark Borchard:

I got to look at the board here. I got to look at the board here. Go over to Matt. He probably has something right off the top of his head.

TC Martin:

Okay, Matt, [inaudible].

Matt Josephs:

I’m also looking at the board here.

TC Martin:

We’re all looking at the board here.

Mark Borchard:

I would say it’s probably that Cleveland game, because there’s just not a lot of good underdogs. Maybe, the Brewers. I know Matt’s play. He’s playing the Cardinals. But it looks like it’s a day of favorites, in my opinion.

Matt Josephs:

Depending upon the book, the Phillies are even money or better. I don’t think that’s a bad play to take the Phillies. But you’re right. I’m looking at a lot of the other. Obviously, I like Colorado. And if their bullpen wasn’t bad, I’d take Colorado full game. But I can’t trust innings six, seven, eight, nine.

Mark Borchard:

Oh, there you go. There you go. That’s two plays where my line says underdog value, Colorado and Phillies. So, there you go.

TC Martin:

All right. Hard for me to find a dog. It was hard for me to find a favorite here today, guys. So, like I said at the beginning of the show, it’s just we got some ugly pitchy matchups. Look how many times we’ve said today, guys may get his first start or second start. A guy gets waived and he’s getting thrown in. This is an ugly pitching card here today all the way around. No Cy Young Award winners pitching today, guys. We could definitely say that.

Mark Borchard:

Oh, no, Gausman’s pretty good. Gausman and Cease are good, but they’re pitching in a tornado. So, how can you handicap that game? [inaudible] Cy Young in a couple years.

TC Martin:

We’re talking about a very warm dryer today, 95 degrees.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, it ruins that great pitching match-up. It’s like darn.

Matt Josephs:

Spencer Strider could be a Cy Young in a couple years. He’s pretty nasty once he learns how to go past five innings.

Mark Borchard:

No, I agree with you on that. He does have great stuff, Matt. Good point.

TC Martin:

All right. Appreciate everyone’s questions here.

Mark Borchard:

Great question and answer session. That was fun, you guys. All right.

TC Martin:

Every day, we love to hear from our viewers out there. Hit us right here in the chat room at the MLB Show BetUS TV. And also, remember, click that bell. That way, you get the notifications when we go live. So, like, subscribe to the show. Be here. All the great shows here on BetUS TV, especially this one here with the MLB Show, because we’ll break it down for you.

TC Martin:

All right, guys, let’s look at the best bets for today. All right. We’ll start off with Matt is going with the Colorado Rockies, the first five innings in this one. So, hey, he can be deadlock three-three. He’s going to be a winner here, laying 135, Colorado Rockies first five in their game today at Miami. And then St. Louis first five to outscore the Milwaukee Brewers against Chi Chi Gonzalez today. He’ll lay 140 on that. Basewinner taking team total with the Philadelphia Phillies today. Wants some runs there over four and a half runs, plus 105 in this one, as the Phillies are taking on Martin Perez and the Texas Rangers. And then Basewinner’s going to go with the total of nine going over Kansas City and the Angels tonight there. All right. So, there are your best bets.

TC Martin:

I’m taking the day off today. And I’m just rooting you guys on. Plus, I’ll be calling some WNBA action with the best record in the WNBA of the Las Vegas, aces of 13-two against the defending champ in Chicago sky tonight. So, my mind will be on basketball tonight, guys. But I will be rooting you on. Checking the scores there, maybe, during half time of my game. So, there you have it.

TC Martin:

All right. I want to thank everyone again for joining us here at BetUS TV, the MLB Show. We will be back at it again tomorrow and handicap some winners. Hopefully, we’ve got a little bit better card that we could talk about tomorrow as well, too. All right. So, for the Basewinner and for Matt Josephs, TC Martin is saying so long. Have yourself a good one. Remember, like, subscribe to the MLB Show and BetUS TV, of course, presented by America’s favorite sports book, BetUS. And also, on Twitter, follow us individually, but also at BetUS TV as well, too, for all of your updates. Have a great day. We’ll talk to you tomorrow.