TC:
And a happy Tuesday to you. Welcome to The MLB Show here on BetUS TV, brought to you by BetUS, America’s favorite sportsbook. I am TC Martin, coming to you live from Las Vegas. On my left and right respectively, Jeff Nadu, coming to you from Philadelphia, PA and the Basewinner, Mark Borchard from Scottsdale, Arizona, as we will attack all of the Major League Baseball action today. How you doing, gentlemen? How are things going from the Left Coast to the East Coast?
Mark:
Kind of frustrated over that Paul Blackburn. His sabermetric outing wasn’t very good. He didn’t allow a run, but sabermetric outing, that was a terrible start. A lot of hard hit balls, no strikes, no swinging swings and misses. So that’ll all even out. That’s why I think you don’t want to get too fired up over one game result because you can go into the metrics and say, “Well, the guy’s not going to throw. He’s not going to throw a 17 percentile every time and win the game. He’s just not.”
Mark:
It comes up with the correlation numbers and I’ve done some regression analysis for game ERA to that three metric. That’s why I use it. So as frustrating as it is on a one off, it’s not frustrating to me because I don’t see a reason not to play Blackburn again next time.
Mark:
Then the Diamondbacks, Marlon’s three runs off the Diamondbacks’ Humberto Castellanos in the Diamondbacks’ bullpen. That’s a little bit of frustration, but there was a couple opportunities. Jazz Chisholm hit the hell out of a ball with two guys on, and I think it was a third inning. He hit it right at the guy. So in baseball, you just got to take that, turn the page, and move on. So I think we got a good card today and I’m looking forward to breaking it down with you, TC and Jeff.
TC:
This is what I like about Basewinner. Not like, “Hey, how you doing? What’d you have for breakfast or anything? What’s your day plan?” He just, boom, goes into the hard luck loser from yesterday. So yeah, good day to you, too, Basewinner. Jeff, how you doing, man? Fire away.
Jeff:
Doing good. Looking forward to another show. Let’s get into it.
TC:
Okay, guys, today, we’ve got a full slate of games that we’re looking at today. We’ve talked before about Tuesday games, and I personally like the Tuesday games, because you usually get the A lineups and you get well-rested teams.
TC:
Today, you’re getting a very unique doubleheader happening in Detroit today. But if you’re betting this game, beware with the A’s and the Tigers today, because the A’s are actually going to be the home team in the first game today because of the crazy situation with the lockout. These two teams were supposed to open up in Oakland the first week of the season. So instead of going to Oakland, trying to make up a game here or two, what they decided to do was when Oakland goes to Detroit, which is happening right now, that they’re going to play a doubleheader today.
TC:
The A’s will actually be the home team and bat last. Then they’ll play the second game of the double header immediately following, and the Tigers will be the home team. So just a little FYI when you’re looking at this game, because again, especially if you’re looking at run line situations, remember just because the Tigers are playing in Detroit does not necessarily mean they’re the home team today. So a little quirky situation today with this game.
Mark:
Yeah, it breaks my model personally. But then again, if you look at the card, you’re like, “Gosh. Wow, that’s a long flight. I wonder how they’re going to pull that off.” I would ask you, though, TC, if this was Yankees/Toronto, would people care about it more? But I guess you have these two teams who are like, “Well, let’s make the team a home team, make this team away team.” I don’t think anybody cares. These teams aren’t going to contend, by my book.
TC:
No, we’ve seen this actually happen before with rainouts, especially with East Coast/West Coast teams traveling. We’ve seen a couple times in years past where they just do this. There’s no way we’re going to fly a team out for on an off day in the middle of August or whatever. It doesn’t make sense. So this is what we’ve seen major league baseball do.
TC:
So again, I don’t think either team really minds because it’s such a long season. But as long as hey, the A’s get to bat last today. Yeah, they lose a little revenue from a home game, but in Oakland, that doesn’t really mean nothing because only 3,000 people would go to these games anyway for the A’s. So yeah, a little quirky situation. Just wanted to bring that up, too.
Jeff:
I will-
TC:
Go ahead.
Jeff:
I will say in game two, I don’t have much on game one, but in game two, I’m going to look to fade Martinez. This kid, making his debut, has never pitched at the major league level. I did a deep dive into his minor league numbers … making his debut …
Intro:
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TC:
And a happy Tuesday to you. Welcome to The MLB Show here on BetUS TV, brought to you by BetUS, America’s favorite sportsbook. I am TC Martin, coming to you live from Las Vegas. On my left and right respectively, Jeff Nadu, coming to you from Philadelphia, PA and the base winner, Mark Borchard from Scottsdale, Arizona, as we will attack all of the Major League Baseball action today. How you doing, gentlemen? How are things going from the Left Coast to the East Coast?
Mark:
Kind of frustrated over that Paul Blackburn. His sabermetric outing wasn’t very good. He didn’t allow a run, but sabermetric outing, that was a terrible start. A lot of hard hit balls, no strikes, no swinging swings and misses. So that’ll all even out. That’s why I think you don’t want to get too fired up over one game result because you can go into the metrics and say, “Well, the guy’s not going to throw. He’s not going to throw a 17 percentile every time and win the game. He’s just not.”
Mark:
It comes up with the correlation numbers and I’ve done some regression analysis for game ERA to that three metric. That’s why I use it. So as frustrating as it is on a one off, it’s not frustrating to me because I don’t see a reason not to play Blackburn again next time.
Mark:
Then the Diamondbacks, Marlon’s three runs off the Diamondbacks’ Humberto Castellanos in the Diamondbacks’ bullpen. That’s a little bit of frustration, but there was a couple opportunities. Jazz Chisholm hit the hell out of a ball with two guys on, and I think it was a third inning. He hit it right at the guy. So in baseball, you just got to take that, turn the page, and move on. So I think we got a good card today and I’m looking forward to breaking it down with you, TC and Jeff.
TC:
This is what I like about Basewinner. Not like, “Hey, how you doing? What’d you have for breakfast or anything? What’s your day plan?” He just, boom, goes into the hard luck loser from yesterday. So yeah, good day to you, too, Basewinner. Jeff, how you doing, man? Fire away.
Jeff:
Good. Looking forward to another show. Let’s get into it.
TC:
Okay, guys, today, we’ve got a full slate of games that we’re looking at today. We’ve talked before about Tuesday games, and I personally like the Tuesday games, because you usually get the A lineups and you get well-rested teams.
TC:
Today, you’re getting a very unique doubleheader happening in Detroit today. But if you’re betting this game, beware with the A’s and the Tigers today, because the A’s are actually going to be the home team in the first game today because of the crazy situation with the lockout. These two teams were supposed to open up in Oakland the first week of the season. So instead of going to Oakland, trying to make up a game here or two, what they decided to do was when Oakland goes to Detroit, which is happening right now, that they’re going to play a doubleheader today.
TC:
The A’s will actually be the home team and bat last. Then they’ll play the second game of the double header immediately following, and the Tigers will be the home team. So just a little FYI when you’re looking at this game, because again, especially if you’re looking at run line situations, remember just because the Tigers are playing in Detroit does not necessarily mean they’re the home team today. So a little quirky situation today with this game.
Mark:
Yeah, it breaks my model personally. But then again, if you look at the card, you’re like, “Gosh. Wow, that’s a long flight. I wonder how they’re going to pull that off.” I would ask you, though, TC, if this was Yankees/Toronto, would people care about it more? But I guess you have these two teams who are like, “Well, let’s make the team a home team, make this team away team.” I don’t think anybody cares. These teams aren’t going to contend, by my book.
TC:
No, we’ve seen this actually happen before with rainouts, especially with East Coast/West Coast teams traveling. We’ve seen a couple times in years past where they just do this. There’s no way we’re going to fly a team out for on an off day in the middle of August or whatever. It doesn’t make sense. So this is what we’ve seen major league baseball do.
TC:
So again, I don’t think either team really minds because it’s such a long season. But as long as hey, the A’s get to bat last today. Yeah, they lose a little revenue from a home game, but in Oakland, that doesn’t really mean nothing because only 3,000 people would go to these games anyway for the A’s. So yeah, a little quirky situation. Just wanted to bring that up, too.
Jeff:
I will go, I will say in game two, I don’t have much on game one, but in game two, I’m going to look to fade Martinez. This kid, making his debut, has never pitched at the major league level. I did a deep dive into his minor league numbers. Not good. This is a guy that was gotten beaten around in A ball. He got beat around in a double A, triple, really at every level. You look at his career ERA in the minors. Nothing special there. Had of WHIP of 1.4. Opponents at about 280 off of him. ERA close to four and a half in mostly single A baseball.
Jeff:
It seems like the A’s, though, we’ve talked about their farm system. They don’t have a ton of talent. Sometimes you’re just throwing guys in for spot starts. I think this is exactly what they’re doing here. This is probably, “Hey, we just need somebody to eat some innings today. Can you come up?” I felt like the Tigers, this isn’t a great offensive team, but this should be a guy that should be able to hit around a little bit.
TC:
Right, right. So in going back to yesterday’s game, we talked about that, where the A’s come into the game, losing nine in a row, the Tigers losing five in a row. I know, Jeff, you and I have talked a lot about Blackburn. Blackburn got the job done yesterday with a shutout. He went deep into the game. He only had three strikeouts in this game, but Blackburn was good yesterday. Good call on that one.
Mark:
He wasn’t, though.
Jeff:
Okay, but Mark-
Mark:
The whole-
Jeff:
He wasn’t. This is constant [inaudible 00:10:43].
Mark:
He had 11 hard hit balls, 14.5 hard hit per nine. He got no swinging strikes.
Jeff:
But it doesn’t matter. He didn’t give up a run, Mark. Stop with this.
Mark:
It does.
Jeff:
Mark, it doesn’t matter until he blows up for six or seven. This is the problem with analytical stuff. You’re constantly talking about what might happen. Well, it didn’t happen. He didn’t give up a run.
Mark:
But it did happen. It’s not what might happen. It’s actually what the guy did. He allowed 11 hard hit balls.
Jeff:
Listen, Mark. Maybe in July, I’ll give him respect. Maybe in July, when you’re still-
Mark:
I doubt it. He’s going to have to turn it around by my numbers. Again, this is why you just can’t judge on like, well, he shut the team out. Well, I would much rather have a more robust data set to evaluate the guy than he shut the guy out because there’s … You got to admit, Jeff.
Jeff:
No, not even.
Mark:
Okay. Let’s say you had a hundred guys who shut a team out. So does that mean the same evaluation, the same result for that guy? Or is there variance within that shut out?
Jeff:
Well, listen, Mark. The truth of the matter is okay, when we look at his numbers and stuff that’s going on, at the end of the day, he’s [inaudible 00:11:50]-
Mark:
I want you to answer my question, though. Do you think that-
Jeff:
Listen-
Mark:
[inaudible 00:11:52]. Let’s say a guy throws five scoreless innings. Do you think that those five scoreless innings should be handled from a moving forward standpoint, the same way for all 100 guys who throw five scoreless innings?Jeff:
Probably not, but the truth of the matter is, Mark, I’m not. Listen, to be fair, a lot of the things that you say, I don’t understand any of it, to be fair. If it’s my opinion, I think you make it way harder than it really is. But again, that’s how you handicap. I’m not going to knock you for it. That’s what you do.
Jeff:
At the end of the day, though, he’s been very effective. I think the problem sometimes is some of the analytical folks think about what may happen and it never happens. Look, I would just ride the wave like TC. We’ll just ride the wave with this guy. He’s going to keep pitching well. I think he’s been a lot better than you’ve said and all of us have said. I’ll just keep riding it.
Jeff:
Look, they’re not a good team. I’m not going to say that I like Oakland offensively because I don’t. I don’t like their bullpen really. But look, when he pitches things seem to go well. So we’ll see how he pitches. He’s going to pitch against the Angels next week. So that could be where he doesn’t pitch well. But-
TC:
Two things here, guys, and one thing with Blackburn. I know I brought it up from the very beginning here. The A’s decided to hang on to him because they saw something with this guy. Again, the A’s are famous for letting guys go, whatever. But they say Blackburn is going to be one of our top two starters because he has good stuff. We’ve seen that.
Mark:
I’m going to stop you there. I’m going to stop you there because I would totally disagree with because the stuff’s analyzed. I would say, though, TC, to be fair to Blackburn, he’s got really good command. Okay?
TC:
Yes, he does. Yeah.
Mark:
So, but to be fair_.
TC:
[inaudible 00:13:30].Mark:
To be fair to the Detroit Tigers yesterday, he got about four or five calls that were balls. They were flat out balls. So I guess-
TC:
But I don’t think [inaudible 00:13:41]-
Mark:
… maybe he’s fooling the umpire, too.
TC:
I know what you’re saying. But bottom line is this. As we’ve seen, guys, we’ve seen a guy come back. We’ve seen a guy throw a shut out, a one hitter or no hitter. His next start, he may give up three or four or five runs. That’s just the nature of the game in baseball, depending on the day of the week, the match-ups, and all that sort of thing. It’s a long season.
TC:
So just because a guy is good in one start does not necessarily mean he’s going to be great the next time or vice versa. So again, I think to be fair, what we’re looking at doing here, we’re looking at match-ups, we’re picking spots that make sense. You’re analyzing it from a number standpoint. Jeff and I, I’ll just speak for both of us here, we’re more of a “look and feel” type of a thing and a match-up thing.
Mark:
But you guys use numbers, too. You guys also use numbers as well.
TC:
We do use numbers. Absolutely. But it won’t be solely numbers. It’ll be okay, this guy’s going back to his hometown. I’ve said that before. He’s going to have 20 or 40 friends and family in attendance. He’s going to be eating at his favorite restaurant. He’s going to be a little bit more motivated than one of his 32 starts that he gets during the year. So things like that, we just look at. Again, we throw it out there, give our best shot. If it hits, it hits.
TC:
Of course, we’re not going to hit all these games. But again, everyone approaches it from a different standpoint. Bottom line is just because something happens one time does not necessarily mean it’s going to happen the next. I think that’s we can all agree on that in Major League Baseball.
TC:
Let’s go take a look at the record boards here, guys, and update it here. Jeff got the victory yesterday with the A’s. So congratulations on that one. We go there. I’m at 25 and 19. Jeff’s at 12 and 15. Basewinner is at 500 there at 22 and 22. Today, we are going to look at about five games on the docket here today. So let’s try to analyze these things from our own perspective and what we like and break it down.
TC:
Okay. I’ll start with this one. The Houston Astros and the Minnesota twins. Astros, +140 favorite in this game on the road. Twins plus 125, a low total here. Six and a half is the number shaded to the over at – 125. The main reason we got the low total because Justin Verlander is back on the hill for the Astros today.
TC:
Guys, I’m not going to pat myself on the back here. I’ll let you guys do it. But I did say last week, when we’re talking about the Astros, they are going to go on a seven or an eight game win streak here pretty soon. Lo and behold, what are we doing now? Boom, the Astros are in a seven game win streak and they’re getting a pretty friendly opponent to go on the road with, Minnesota.
TC:
They had the off day yesterday. Traveled in midday yesterday. They’re well-rested and you got their best pitcher going tonight in Justin Verlander. Verlander has been outstanding on all five starts. I’m going to give you a stat here, and you can do what you want with it. But Verlander has only been scored upon in five innings, which means he’s only given up runs in five innings of the 33 innings that he’s taken the mound.
TC:
I think this is important because this guy doesn’t give up big innings. There are not long rallies with this guy. All of those runs, one was a two run inning. The rest were one run innings. This guy has had some good success against the Twins in the past as well, too. I’m also going to go against Joe Ryan here. I really don’t know how good Joe Ryan is because the sample size has been really small here. In his starts, he’s faced Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas City, Seattle. The one good team that he’s faced has been Boston.
TC:
He was a September call up last year. So I’m not really crazy about Joe Ryan. His numbers may look good with you, Mark. I’m not sure. But remember, this guy basically has been a minor leaguer up until the September call up.
TC:
Here’s another thing I’m concerned about with Minnesota. They’re still not at full strength. [inaudible 00:17:39] is out. Correa is out. Don’t know if he’s going to play or not against his old team here this week. Buxton is still hurt as well, too. So got to monitor the injuries. So for all that, I think the train keeps rolling here with Verlander, and I like the strokes. Jeff?
Jeff:
Yeah, I don’t have any issue with it. I get your point on the sample size and you’re right. He really hasn’t faced any great line-ups. It’s going to be obviously a test for the young kid, Ryan. Yeah, I don’t have any issue with this. I know you’re a little bit more interested in laying big numbers than I am. Not really my thing, but yeah, I don’t have any issue with this one.
TC:
How do you see this one, Basewinner?
Mark:
Well, you brought up a good point about the sample size. But I will say the sample size for Verlander is hard to read as well. In fact, he’s only got five starts in the last 365 days that we can pull information from. I will say that by my numbers, Ryan is actually quite good. I think this goes back, I think he’s got about 12 starts dating back to, like you said, September 1st of last year.
Mark:
But there’s a bunch of them that are in the 80th percentile, 90th percentile from that three metric standpoint. Then you just want to get a little simpler in your evaluation of both of these guys. Okay. So Ryan’s got 10 games, Verlander has five. So we do have a sample size issue and that’s why I stayed away from it.
Mark:
But if you look at their K% minus BB%, and this is a go-to stat. I said you shouldn’t use one stat to handicap baseball. But if you do, you should use K% minus BB. If you look at their K% minus BB%, there’s 206 guys that I have over the last 365 days that have 15 or more innings pitched. Verlander is 15th and Ryan is 16th. So they’re right neck and neck. So if you just use that as a comparison, then they’re pretty even.
Mark:
I will say that, I think, as people see Ryan a little bit more, he leads with deception. So as they become more familiar with him, I think his effectiveness is going to go down. But one thing I did want to mention is that I don’t think Ryan’s going to … I think he’ll pitch about five innings.
Mark:
Then the Minnesota bullpen has been tremendous. They’re third by my three metric chart. They’re also second in the Stuff+, if you break it down by individual. So I think that if I had to play it, I would probably play Minnesota. But I’m going to pass because I think the sample size for both guys is admittedly pretty small.
TC:
Well, with Verlander, it’s really not because this guy has 10 years behind him and we know what a great pitcher is. Like I said, he’s basically been off the last year and a half, rehabbing from the injury. Like I’ve pointed out before, the Astros have taken this very, very slow with this guy. You’re going to see this guy go deep into games. Dusty has no problem taking this. He’s not on any pitch count or anything. We’ve seen that. You’ve see him go into the seventh or go into the eighth inning.
TC:
I think as the season progresses here, Verlander’s come out fine. So again, he’s the ace. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball and there’s never any restriction. That’s what I like about Verlander because you never have to worry about, well, this guy’s only going to go five innings when we’re handicapping. You just hit the nail in the head,
TC:
Joe Ryan, he hasn’t been past the fifth, I don’t think one time. Going back to September, maybe once or twice, he’s gone into the sixth. So he’s a good pitcher. He’s got good stuff from all accounts, but again, we just don’t know enough about him because he is a youngster and basically came up out of the minor leagues.
TC:
But at any rate, going to go with the Astros. Lock me in for Houston today. I don’t think that I’m relaying really a big price at all. Minus 140 with Verlander on the road against one of the best teams in baseball, I’ll take a shot with it today. We know the winning streak will come to an end at some point in time. But I think it could be eight in a row for the ‘Stros today.
TC:
Let’s go to the next game, Baltimore and St. Louis. Kyle Bradish going for Baltimore today. It looks like it’s going to be Adam Wainwright today. Now Wainwright is coming off of the COVID list, but he said he has no symptoms. He’s been fine for the past few days. So we’re going to take a look at Wainwright today for St. Louis.
TC:
I believe this line is somewhere around the number of, I know we don’t have the graphic here, around St. Louis about -130 favorite, I believe in this game. But, guys, any thoughts on this game? Basewinner, we’ll start with you.
Mark:
Well, I think it’s a tough game for me to handicap. I think if you look at Wainwright coming off the DL or the COVID list, you got to ask yourself, “Well, why are we still putting guys on the COVID list if the guy doesn’t have any symptoms?” So, yeah, I don’t know. Brandish, I’d like him, but he’s got two starts. So it’s really hard to … This is a game that I would stay away from honestly, TC. I don’t really see why you would play it, but maybe Jeff does.
Jeff:
Yeah, I don’t have much interest either. Until recently, we really didn’t know what Wainwright’s status was. We have to remember he’s a bit older than most of the pitchers out there. Not that I think that has much issue, but you have to wonder, “What’s his conditioning like?” I would have to think they’re still conditioning. That’s something you could still do.
Jeff:
As far as Baltimore, look, I don’t think betting against Baltimore in any game’s a bad idea. They’re not a good team, as we know. There’s no real sample size for Bradish. Yeah, I have no interest. This would be the game out of all these I would absolutely just not bet at all. I don’t see any interest in it.
TC:
Well, I’ll tell you why I like it, guys, because Wainwright is fine. Again, I don’t want to say he didn’t have COVID, but it was just a precautionary thing. He’s been fine. He’s been throwing. Again, his last outing was outstanding. It was against Kansas City. They won 10 to nothing, and he pitched a one hitter through seven innings. Again, with Bradish, this guy’s a minor leaguer, came up two weeks ago.
TC:
Actually, he came up with the Angels system and he was part of that Dylan Bundy trade. The Angels want nothing to do with this guy. They basically admitted, “Okay, this guy’s garbage. Let’s send him off here.” St. Louis offense has been solid, and I love getting good offensive teams with a good pitcher, and I’ve mentioned this before, coming off, maybe a loss. Well, we’re coming off a two game losing streak.
TC:
In their last five games, they’ve scored at least three runs. In two of those games, they put up a 10 spot and they put up a seven spot. So that’s why I like this game. St. Louis offense is very good, especially when you got Goldschmidt and Arenado right at the heart of it. You’ve got an advantage in the pitching department here. No, I think this is a great spot for St. Louis.
TC:
On paper, if you look at okay, it’s Baltimore at St. Louis. I’m not sure who they’re going to pitch. If they’re going to pitch Wainwright or Nicholas, to me, it doesn’t matter. But especially if it’s Wainwright coming off his last outing and he is facing the Baltimore Orioles, to me, I think this is a golden spot. I’m running to the window to bet on the Cardinals today.
Mark:
So you would say that it’s going to come down between Nicholas and Wainwright? So you’re=
TC:
One of the two’s going to pitch, but they’re 85% sure that it’s going to be Wainwright, which I’m fine with in this situation. Normally Wainwright, I would be a little hesitant. We’ve talked about him before, but again, in this situation against this team, against this pitcher, I’m fine. Look what he just did against the Royals that are similar offensively to the Orioles. He threw a one hitter through seven innings.
Mark:
Yeah. Look, my pricing’s at minus, with Nicholas in, it’s -170. With Wainwright in, it’s -181. I think there’s probably better games on the board where you don’t have to guess on Bradish because he’s shown some pretty good stuff. Wainwright has, too. I don’t know. Something about that game just doesn’t sit good with me, TC. Not that I disagree with you because-
TC:
Oh, no.
Mark:
… if I had to play, I’d play the Cardinals.
TC:
All right. Well, luck me. I’ll take a shot with the Cardinals here today at whatever that line is going to be. All right. Next up, guys, let’s talk about the Rays and the Angels that tonight in Anaheim. We’ve got the Rays +120 favorite. The total in this game, 8.5 shaded to the under, -115 if you like the under. Corey Kluber going to the hill for Tampa Bay and Reid Detmers for the Angels tonight. I think all three of us like this game tonight. Jeff, why don’t you start us off and tell us why you like the Tampa Bay Rays.
Jeff:
Yeah, I’m zoning in on Tampa. I saw Marcos on Tampa. Look, first of all, Tampa was a no show last night. Angels beat them up bad in that game. Angels went off show. Shohei had a grand slam. But I really like this pitching match. I like the match-up for the Ray’s lineup as well. You look at them against lefthanded pitching this year, hitting over almost 262, 744 OPS. Have definitely enjoyed seeing southpaws, as opposed to righties.
Jeff:
Reid Detmers has not been good. Got an ERA over five. Doesn’t really strike anybody out. Just been a messy guy. Kluber seems to look like that old Kluber. I know he had that one bad outing against Boston. Gave up a lot of hits over five innings. But all in all, he’s been very effective outside of that. Look, is he that all star that we remember him being? No, but one thing we know about the Rays, you’re going to always get a pretty good outing of him.
Jeff:
They’ve got a good bullpen, one that we know has been good over the years. Then I just think we see a better outing than we saw last night. It’s not conceivable to think that the Angels may not hit again, but that usually doesn’t happen two nights in a row, where a team goes off for nine or 10 runs. So I’m going to bank on the Rays here.
Jeff:
We have to look at this number as well. Rays were a dog. They’ve been bet up to a solid favorite. So it seems like the smart money agrees with this here. I’m going to play Tampa -110 or whatever it is.
TC:
All right. Basewinner?
Mark:
Yeah. I agree with Jeff on the versus lefthanded pitching, but I not only agree with him, and I know we get in a debate over what timeframe you should use. He’s more shorter timeframe than I am, and I’m more longer term projections. But I will tell you this, the longer term projections say they hit lefthanded pitching a lot better than righthanded pitching as well.
Mark:
In fact, as much as I like the Angels offense, I think the Rays are comparable here. I’ve got them at a +113, way to runs create a plus projection versus lefties. I’ve got the Angels +114 way to runs, create a plus versus righties. So very similar offenses. Then I think the starting pitching comparisons, it’s a mismatch. Kluber, I’ve got 45th out of 150 pitchers. Detmers, 132 out of 150 pitchers.
Mark:
Just to give you that easy, K minus BB comparison, if you look at these 206 guys that have thrown 15 plus innings over the last 365 days, Kluber ranks 64th. Detmers ranks 180th. I might as well go to the bullpens because I’m on a roll. I’ll talk about the bullpen. Tampa Bay has really shown some pretty good numbers by that three metrics chart. They’re also third and Stuff+, but they’re sixth overall in the three metric chart compared to the angels 19th overall by that three metric chart.
Mark:
So I think you get an advantage, a tremendous advantage, in pitching. I think you got the offenses and they’re pretty similar, given the respective split data.
TC:
Yeah. I’m going to make this a clean sweep. I really like the raise here as well, too. Kluber has been really good in four of the five starts. The game against Boston, he hasn’t. But I’ll even go, Jeff, and I’ll say that Kluber is shading back to his old form. He’s past the injury now. He’s gotten a stamina back, all that stuff. He has been good. The last two audience were really good. He’s only given up one earned run combined in those two starts. Four hits. Had 13 strikeouts in one walk.
TC:
So for people thinking, “Okay, this is the Corey Kluber we saw at the end of last year or against that start against Boston,” I’m going to say, “Wait a minute now.” No, Corey Kluber looks like the Corey Kluber about two or three years ago. Right now, he does.
TC:
Now as far as Detmers, he stinks. Here’s another minor league guy. This guy hasn’t gone past the fifth inning. Well, he went past the fifth inning one time. Again, more of a minor league guy. Got called up last year. I think the Tampa Bay Rays’ bats are going to unload on him. That was part of my handicapping as well, too, because they usually do bang lefties, especially lollipop lefties like a Reid Detmers. So no Reid Detmers for me. Kluber’s looking good. Good spot, bouncing back off of that loss last night.
TC:
Jeff’s right. You don’t see back to back 9-10 run games. They scale back. So lock us all in for the Tampa Bay Rays at -120. I think it’s a good price. I know they’re on the road. I like the Rays as well, too, guys.
TC:
All right, let’s move on to the next one. Miami and Arizona in Basewinner’s backyard there, and Jesús Luzardo going against Madison Bumgarner today. The line on this one has Miami +131 favorite. If you like the Diamondbacks, +121 total in this one, 8.5 shaded towards the under at -115. My question here, guys, is Madison Bumgarner going to last longer than he did last time? Because he got ejected out the last game because he went ballistic. So we’ll see if he hangs around a little bit more.
TC:
But what’s up with these Arizona Diamondbacks? They’ve won 10 of their last 13 games and they defeated Miami on all four times that they faced each other this season. They’ve all been one run victories in favor of the Diamondbacks. Is this Diamondback team one that we should like be paying closer attention to? Basewinner?
Mark:
No. No, they’re getting lucky. Well, when you asked me that question, you mentioned they’ve won a lot of one run games. But it shows on my expected standings board, and they’re the luckiest team in baseball by my expected standing. So you look at their standard standing, 16 and 14, but their expected standings, and this is based on what they’ve done. Weighted runs creative plus, xFi minus and defensive runs saved. They should be 10.8 and 19.2. So they basically have won five more games than they should have, based on their component metrics that they’ve put out there so far.
Mark:
Then if you look at the Marlins on the other side, they’re 13 and six. But by those metrics, they should be 16 and 12. So we’ve got some luck regression, I think, going for us in this game. Then I’m going to lead with the starting pitching comparison on the Stuff+ because if you look at Luzardo’s Stuff+, and this is, I think, one of the best stories in baseball, not at least by my metrics, he was a 32 percentile last year in Stuff+. Now he’s at 73 percentile. He’s reshaped two and a half of his pitches.
Mark:
Bumgarner’s 14% Stuff+. It’s hard to get behind Bumgarner. 137th pitcher out of 150. The offenses right now are equal. I’ve got the Marlins 16th out of 30, the Diamondback’s 19th out 30. But I think that we get a tremendous advantage in the bullpen. I’ve got the bullpen for the Marlins 13th, and I’ve got the Diamondbacks dead last in baseball. If you look at the Stuff+, that marries that as well. So for all those reasons, I think this is a pretty good opportunity to get the Marlins at a moderate price. I’ll do -125, TC.
TC:
Okay. Jeff?
Jeff:
Well, first all, I’m going to say this. There’s no Bumgarner slander allowed ever, Mark. I don’t know who you think you are and what you’re doing here, but yeah, that’s not going to happen on this show. Bumgarner’s a legend. He’ll always be a legend, and he’ll always be a legend in my eyes on this show.
Jeff:
I’m going to actually add a game if I can. I went down this road last week with these two groups. Well, not these two groups. One of these groups. I’m going to play the first five under. I think Mark was dead right about Luzardo. He’s been terrific. Bumgarner, though, has been really good also.
Jeff:
I’m always fascinated by Mark because whenever I hear him say, “Well, I don’t like this guy,” then you evaluate the numbers. Then you say, “Oh, wait, that’s the guy that has a 180 averaged against over 23 innings. He’s only given up three earned runs.” Bumgarner’s been terrific, weirdly enough. I know Mark will make him sound like he’s one of the worst pitchers in baseball, but-
Mark:
I will compare his ERA, which is 1.5 to his expected ERA, which is 6.55. So he’s a lucky guy.
Jeff:
Yeah. Well, again, Mark, you’re talking about what may happen. The truth is I’ll just go with what is really happening.
Mark:
I’m not, though. That’s where you don’t understand. This is-
Jeff:
Mark, TC’s smart. Listen, I’m going to [inaudible 00:34:42]-
Mark:
His strikeout rate minus walk rate is the one metric that you need to look at before you … Well, whatever. No, we handicap differently. So I’m sorry. I’ll zip it.
Jeff:
You’re a nice guy. I like you, but I just don’t care about these numbers, as far as right now. It just doesn’t mean anything to me. Sorry. I think he’s a good pitcher. I think these lineups suck. That’s one thing we can agree on. The Miami Marlins hit 212 against lefties Arizona hits 190. Neither can hit left-handed pitching. I want to take the bullpens out of it just because bullpens suck on average. I don’t want to get involved with them here.
Jeff:
I’m going to go under 4.5 In the first half. It hit the other night. I’m going to keep banking on this Arizona under stuff. They have the best under home park and baseball. I’m going to go back to it here. I’m adding under 4.5 first five to the card here. Luzardo, Bumgarner.
Mark:
I don’t hate that play, Jeff. You got to figure Luzardo is capable of shutting the Diamondbacks out. So can the Marlin score five runs? I’m not saying that they’re going to score five runs. I hope they do, but that’s not that bad of a play actually. So we’re not that far apart, Jeff.
Jeff:
Well, glad we agree.
TC:
I think what it is, and we talked about this yesterday, how Miami is just so inconsistent. They had a seven game win streak. Now they’ve lost eight of their last nine games. It’s just a hard team to handicap, especially when you look at this batting order. It’s very, very tough. So yeah, if you’re going to do anything, possibly the under here. But okay.
TC:
Let’s lock these guys in. We’ve got two plays on this game. We’ve got the Basewinner taking another shot here with the Miami Marlins at -131. Jeff’s going to go first five under.
Jeff:
Real quick, by the way, I mentioned Bumgarner’s a legend. Have you guys ever heard the story about him and his wife out on their farm that they have? Did you ever hear about that?
Mark:
Do I want to hear about it?
Jeff:
Yeah. So this is pretty incredible. So Madison Bumgarner’s wife had a cattle ranch or something that they live on, or they did live on at one point. They were roping cattle in spring training, just I guess a hobby of theirs or whatever. His wife contacted him and said, “Oh, my God, there’s this huge snake on the property.” Bumgarner gets out his shovel, an ax or shovel, like spades it in half basically.
Jeff:
They find two little rabbits inside the snake, still alive. He nursed the little rabbit back to health. In fact, both little rabbits back to health. He talked about how tough those little rabbits had to be to survive. It’s a true story. Vin Scully told this story on the air one time. It’s pretty interesting.
Mark:
That actually is a pretty good story, Jeff. I have to give that to you.
Jeff:
Yeah, he basically said, “You got to somehow survive. You got to somehow battle back.” A lesson well-taught for all of us. Scully tells it. You got to look it up. It’s pretty good how he tells the story. But it’s pretty interesting, I thought.
TC:
Yeah. I got a chance to see Bumgarner pitch quite a bit in San Francisco. I’ll give you my Madison Bumgarner story. I’m at an afternoon game in San Francisco. I can’t remember who the opponent was, but I remember it was a day weekday game and it was an unseasonably hot day. It was around 90 degrees and Bumgarner goes out there and falls behind nine to nothing. He’s just getting shelled.
TC:
We’re saying. This is pathetic.” He had a few of those type of starts. We’ve seen that over the years. So come about the sixth inning, he said, “We’re out of here. Let’s get out of here.” We’re driving back to Sacramento, looking forward to going to my old world favorite pizza place that’s been there since 1951. Lo and behold, we’re listening to the game back on the radio. What happens? The Giants come back and win the game. There you go. I think it was 10-9 or 11-9 that game. But Bumgarner-
Jeff:
That’s rough.
TC:
… took an early shower. He was out of that game in about the second inning. But anyway.
Jeff:
That’s rough, he left the game.
TC:
A little different Madison Bumgarner story.
Jeff:
Right.
TC:
But all right, lock you guys in. Like I said, they both got action on this game. Philly and Seattle. All right. Let’s look at this game. Aaron Nola going back to the hill tonight for Philly. Nola was good for me last time out. He’s going against Robbie Ray for Seattle. The Philly’s a road favorite here, 130. The total in this game, seven, shaded to the under -115.
TC:
Philly, the Bats came uncorked last night. I think that’s one of the reasons why they’re a road favorite here. The other reason is Seattle’s been downright awful. So that’s why we’re seeing Philadelphia a road favorite. We know that Phillies can be a little inconsistent here. The Mariners have lost 11 of 13 games, guys. They’ve been actually-
Jeff:
That’s actually not surprising.
TC:
… shut out five times during this horrendous streak. Nola and Robbie Ray. Let me say this about Robbie Ray. A lot of people like Robbie Ray. This guy has not been good this year. This is not the same Robbie Ray that we’re accustomed to seeing. So his ERA is over four, not good at all. Losing record right now. Let’s talk to Jeff about this game.
Jeff:
Yeah, he hasn’t been good. I think that’s I’m glad you mentioned. I’ve seen him occasionally get into some real big jams. It doesn’t look like the same Robbie Ray. The problem for Robby Ray is the Phillies hit pretty much both sides of the plate pretty evenly. This is a good lineup. Obviously, we saw that last night, 17 hits. They have these flashes where they just look incredible offensively.
Jeff:
You have to figure the Mariners aren’t going to live in this doldrum forever. They’ll shake out of it eventually. I’ve talked about Nola. He’s just a guy that gives up three runs. It’s just what he does. You look at this number. It’s been bet up from six and a half to seven. I went back and forth in this game. I ended up not playing it, but I saw some pretty good info. I’m sure Mark knows about this.
Jeff:
Both these pitchers frequent throwing the fastball a lot. Both lineups hits fastballs very well, which most lineups do. But these lineups in particular hit them very well. I had some interest in maybe an over. This Philly’s lineup, it seems like maybe they’re starting to figure some things out. Ray’s obviously a pitcher I think they can get to a little bit.
Jeff:
I have to figure the Mariners aren’t going to completely go … have no runs and only have four hits. I feel like they’re going to get a few. Any time I see a seven, I have some interest in an over. I thought about an over back and forth there, but I didn’t ultimately play it.
TC:
All right. Basewinner?
Mark:
It’s a tough handicap for me because, like you mentioned, TC, Robbie Ray is, he’s a significant downgrade from where he was last year. So he won the Cy Young last year, right? So how much of this is because he had a short spring training, and how much of this is because he’s a worse pitcher?
Mark:
So I’ve got to balance the short term and the long term. Short term, you would think, well, Nola’s a pretty good opportunity here. But again, I’ve got to balance both numbers. So I’m still going to hold in on Ray’s Basewinner number. But his stuff is 35 percentile. It wasn’t great last year though, which is interesting. It was about a 52nd percentile and Nola’ in the 71st percentile.
Mark:
Both offenses are quite capable, but they’re playing in Seattle. Seattle’s a tough place to score runs. It’s one of the five worst park factors in baseball. I think it’s just a no play for me, TC. Robbie Ray’s perplexing. He was last year with his breakout as well. So maybe he’ll get that breakout. Maybe he won’t, but I think there’s better games on the board, at least according to me.
TC:
If both guys go to the pitching form that we’re used to seeing Nola and Robbie Ray, the old Robbie Ray, then the under makes sense, especially factoring in a night game in Seattle. Little bit chilly. Usually there’s a little wind coming off the water there as well, too. It’s known for an under park in night games.
TC:
So I could maybe possibly lean to that. But like I said, I don’t know if I can really trust either guy at this point in time. But keep an eye on it. But no action for us.
Jeff:
I just saw in the future that people would ask about this game. So I looked at it a little bit because I felt like, no, we will just talk about it.
TC:
No, yeah. No, good thoughts. Good thoughts. All right. Let’s go to our viewers out there. Obviously they got questions for games that we did not cover in our Q&A. So hit us real quick in the chat room. Mark wants to know thoughts about Toronto and the Yankees. You’ve got Kikuchi going for the Jays today, Severino for the Yanks. Yanks are +175 favorite, guys. I’m not crazy about Kikuchi. Kikuchi’s usually a go-against for me. But if I was going to possibly take a shot with this game, I might look at the Blue Jays here, thinking there’s some value that they can get to Severino.
TC:
Like I’ve said before, Severino has been a nice story. He’s got some good stuff, but still again, he’s not going to go deep into games. He’s still working his way back. This guy was off for more than a year. You got to remember that. So I’m still under the belief that Toronto’s bats, they’ve got bats in this lamp that eventually they’re going to come around here. So when I see a number that I can maybe get the Jay’s at +165, I’m interested. But Kikuchi’s going to keep me off of it. Basewinner?
Mark:
Yeah, I think it’s priced probably where it needs to be. I’ve got it with a -152 for the Yankees. The Yankees are an interesting team because as they go, so does the market. I think the market’s probably overvaluing them a little bit right now, particularly in this game. Kikuchi’s a weird case. He’s up and down, but he’s got a 58% Stuff+. Severino, 73% Stuff+. I have both pictures rated about equally.
Mark:
I know Jeff disagrees with me. He’s not a big fan of Kikuchi. Both offenses are about the same. Where the shakeout comes in the line is my evaluation of the Yankees’ bullpen compared to Toronto. I think the Yankees, from a depth standpoint, from a full team bullpen standpoint, are much better than the Blue Jays. So that’s why the disparity is there. But for me, it’s a no play. I think it’s priced where it needs to be.
TC:
Any thoughts, Jeff?
Jeff:
Yeah, I just will say I hate Toronto. I don’t want to hate them. It seems like every time I back them, they just can’t score runs. I had a hell of a time with them last week. Backed them a couple of times and they pissed down their leg a couple different times. I will say, a game that I have a little eye on today, really from a number standpoint, but I think a lot of people are going to bet against this team. I get it. They’re bad.
Jeff:
You look at Corbin in the Nationals, Corbin’s a disaster. He’s got an ERA over seven. He’s 0 and five. Obviously we know that’s just from the fact that team just overall sucks. I don’t know who the Mets are going with yet, but I have a feeling it’s going to be someone. Does anyone have that, by the way?
TC:
They’re going with Maikel. Maikel’s going.
Jeff:
Okay. I was going to say, maybe I might back the Mets here a little bit, for some reason. The Mets are … you talk about a team. You look at these splits, man. Now again, I know we’re only a couple, about a month or so into the season, but the Mets are hitting 217 against lefties, 270 against righties. Major issues, splitwise there. But the fact that they’re going with Maikel, I like him to be fair. What’s the price? I don’t have a price on this. Does anyone have a price?
TC:
Yeah. Yeah. Mets are +185.
Jeff:
If I had to grab-
Mark:
Suddenly you don’t like it as much.
Jeff:
No, if I had to grab a dog price, I don’t hate it, to be honest. I know the Mets are really good and whatever, but I just feel like a lot of people are going to slot in and take this game just because it’s the Mets and they’re so good. They won 20 of 30 to start. The Nationals have lost 20 of 30.
Jeff:
For whatever reason. I think Corbin pitches well here. The Mets just don’t hit lefties well. I have a weird feeling, and we saw yesterday. Obviously, I don’t want to bring up old news, but the Reds won yesterday, Baltimore won yesterday. So these teams aren’t going to lose every game. I have a weird feeling the Nats play well today, but it’s hard to play it. I’d hope to get a spot starter for the Mets.
Mark:
No, that’s interesting. So you like the Nationals there?
Jeff:
I do.
Mark:
I would lean with it, too. The pricing with Carrasco in is -126. Let me see if I can get that. I always spell McGill’s name wrong. Let me just see if I can get him in there. So yeah, with Maikel, I actually have him right the same as Carrasco. So it’s -119 for the Mets. So I would lean with you.
Mark:
This Washington offense is capable. Juan Soto is probably the most explosive from a weighted runs, creative plus standpoint in the game. Nelson Cruz, he’s lost it a little bit, but maybe he’ll be able to get back to where he needs to go. But top to bottom, they’re equivalent by my numbers or close to equivalent with the Mets. So yeah, I don’t think it’s a bad play.
TC:
All right. So I know that Aaron had his question regarding that. Maybe the Mets, the first five play on that. I could actually see that a little bit. But yeah, Jeff’s banking on the due theory here, but it makes sense. Again, they’re not good against lefthanders. Is Corbin continually going to be this bad? He has been this bad at the last couple seasons, so we’ll see.
TC:
Again, like you said, it’s hard to back that Nat’s line. If you got Soto, you got some other nice pieces. Nelson Cruz is … Yeah, it is tough. But then you get past the starter and then it’s disaster time. Now it’s bullpen.
Jeff:
He pitched pretty well last time out. Eight strikeouts over six innings. Only gave up two earned.
Mark:
Corbin’s been better than Bumgarner from K minus BB. So that’s got to rate high in Jeff’s book.
TC:
There’s two lollipop lefties right there. Two lollipop lefties. You can have them both. Yeah, there you go. Both were decent pitchers. Right now, I don’t know. All right, guys. Hey, Jeff, any thoughts about Philly tonight, as far as in the NBA? Because I know that one of our-
Jeff:
Yeah, I-
TC:
[inaudible 00:48:43] wants to ask you about that.Jeff:
I’ll tell you right now. I was surprised the Heat went up to nothing. In four games, they’ve played pretty bad in three of them. Offensively, the Heat have been a disaster. Kyle Lowry’s out tonight. That seemed to be something that would happen. Joel Embiid’ now back. Joel Embiid’ a major match-up prop for pretty much everybody in the entire league.
Jeff:
I think the Heat are a team that has slowly falling apart. This team didn’t get to 80 in game three. They struggled really at all games outside of game two, to shoot. They offensively from a three point standpoint, have been a disaster as well. They obviously have the home advantage here tonight. I was surprised to see the Heat is a 3.5 favorite. Now that Lowry’s out, numbers dropped a little bit.
Jeff:
I think the Sixers take control and close it out in game six of Philadelphia on Thursday, I got to say. I think the Heat have just found a way to stop scoring and that’s something they’ve struggled with all year. They’re not a great offensive team. They don’t have Duncan Robinson. Obviously don’t have Lowry tonight. Not good.
TC:
Yeah. Jimmy Butler’s going to have to carry them. As far as Philly goes-
Jeff:
But you look up the other night.
Mark:
Can I just say one thing about the Philly fans in general? Because this is so funny. Watching the finale of its winning time last night with my wife, who’s from Philly, and the Lakers are playing the Sixers. Okay? This is 1980. Right? So my wife’s rooting against the Lakers. I said, “Honey, they played the game 30 years ago.” “I don’t care. I want the Lakers to lose, man.” That’s how intense these Philly fans are. That’s crazy.
Jeff:
Well, yeah. I will say I tend to like … Look, you even look at the NFL with the Cowboys and the Giants or whoever really. I hate the Celtics. I’d love to see the Celtics lose, but yeah, as far as this series, it’s become a bit … Jimmy Butler had 40 the other night and they still lost the game by eight. So yeah, I don’t know if he’s enough and they don’t … [inaudible 00:50:38] not been great. They don’t have much off the bench really right now. So yeah, I lean Sixers here. I think they win this series.
TC:
Yeah, the Lowry injury is key. We had a James Harden sighting. I think about that. Harden actually played well in game number three as well and Embiid, he’s back. He’s doing his thing. So you’re right. Philly’s dangerous with Harden and Embiid clicking on all cylinders. You might be onto something here tonight. I looked at this game and I looked at okay, is Miami, is this a good bounce back game for them? Must win situation for Miami. But again, a little bit scary the way they’re playing right now. These are two teams that are going opposite directions. You’re right about that.
Jeff:
I think for whatever reason, look, the Sixers are getting production from Danny Green. They’re getting production from Niang, which look, if they didn’t get that production, the rest of the team, Maxey, Harden, Embiid, Tobias, they’re all going to play well. So they’re a tough team to beat. They’re playing good defense right now. So yeah, I think they take care of business here.
TC:
All right, here we go. All right, let’s go to the best bets here and wrap things up today. So we got quite a few on the board on this full slate of games on this Tuesday. Jeff is going … We are all are going with the Tampa Bay Rays. We all like the Rays today at -120 at Anaheim. Corey Kluber has been looking good. No Reid Detmers for any of us tonight. So we’re riding the Tampa Bay Rays tonight on the road. Jeff also added a first five game as well in there, too. Right, Jeff?
Jeff:
Yeah, under 4.5 first five, Diamondbacks and Marlins.
TC:
There you go. Okay. I’m on the Astros tonight, laying 140 with Verlander. Also like the St. Louis Cardinals, a nice little bounce back coming off a two game losing streak for them. They’re back home. They’re rested, and Wainwright’s scheduled to go against Baltimore. Basewinner’s on the Miami Marlins again, trying to get this team back on track. Losing a bunch of one run games. He’ll take a shot with him at -131 at Arizona tonight.
TC:
All right, guys, great stuff. As always, remember, like and subscribe the channel here. The MLB Show on be BetUS TV. We appreciate everyone for joining us. The numbers have been fantastic. Let’s keep it rocking, keep it rolling. Keep it increasing here. We appreciate everyone for joining us here. 12:00 noon Eastern time, Monday through Friday with myself and the Basewinner, along with Jeff Nadu as well, too.
TC:
Everyone, have a good Tuesday, and we will reconvene tomorrow, same time, same channel, right here at 12:00 noon on BetUS TV. Have a great day, everybody.
