TC Martin:
And a very good Tuesday to wherever you may be. TC Martin here from Las Vegas, along with Jeff Nadu and the Basewinner, Mark Borchard. This is the MLB Show here on BetUS TV, of course, presented by America’s favorite sportsbook, BetUS. All right, we take a look at Major League Baseball, as you know, go around the entire league and picking our best games and talk with you for about the next 45 minutes or so. Glad that you could join us and remember, make sure that you hit that bell, sign up, hit those notifications, like us and so you get all of those notifications when we go live here. Make sure you like and subscribe to this show and the channel here on BetUS TV, the MLB betting Show. All right, my astute handicappers, Jeff Nadu, Basewinner, fellas, good day to you on this Tuesday. A full slate of games and I see you smiling away, Mark Borchard. What are you smiling about?
Mark Borchard:
I’m pumped up my boy, Paul Blackburn’s pitching today and I’ve got something to say to Jeff. Jeff, like a good Gleyber, Torres is there.
TC Martin:
I think that Mark is referencing the head to head matchup yesterday between the Yankees and the Blue Jays, where the Yankees won their 10th straight game and the Basewinner are very happy about that.
Mark Borchard:
Have a day, Gleyber Torres. Awesome. What a performance. That was good. That was a good win for the Yankees. Great job by their bullpen.
TC Martin:
All right, Jeff. Go ahead and fire back, please.
Jeff Nadu:
I don’t have anything to say. I don’t play the games, unfortunately. I’m kind of irritated anymore with baseball. You try to put out the best product but I don’t know, just can’t get much consistency. I guess if I worried more about scientific stuff, I guess maybe that would make it better. But Mark, if you want to celebrate, you won the ninth inning, what are you going to do? Unfortunately, they just couldn’t hit. That’s the angle.
Mark Borchard:
I had to go with a John Sterling reference, Jeff, because I know how much you love John Sterling. He missed another home run call yesterday. He called a home run for Toronto and Stanton caught it at the wall. I think it was in the second, second or third inning.
TC Martin:
But he did say, “Oh Yankees win. Yankees win. Ho, Yankees win.”
Mark Borchard:
That’s pretty good, TC. That’s a good one. I like that.
TC Martin:
Don’t worry, Jeff. Remember they sing the national anthem, two of them actually today, the Canadian national anthem and the American national anthem and we’re going to get it back today. We’re going to get it back because those Blue Jays did hit the ball yesterday, guys. They were, as I like to say, kind of a hard luck loser yesterday. They had nine hits. The bats are starting to come around. We’re going to get into that game a little bit later on but today I’m going to say early, right now, that streak is over. That Yankee streak is coming to an end today. If you lost yesterday on the Blue Jays, double down today. There you go. There’s your advice.
Mark Borchard:
Good call. Good call on that, TC. Montgomery allowed 12.6 hard hit per nine yesterday. They were hitting the ball hard. That’s a good call. That’s a good read on that.
TC Martin:
All right guys, lets take a look at what we did yesterday. We look at the record board. I went one and one yesterday. Had those Minnesota Twins in a nail bite against Baltimore, low score and game two to one there but the Twins got the job done. I told you I was going back and forth yesterday with that Arizona Miami game and did not get there on the total in that game. Pablo Lopez finally got lit up pretty good by the Diamondbacks and those Diamondback bats are starting to come around a little bit. They put up some runs the last few games. And then Jeff, like we mentioned, had the Toronto Blue Jays against the Yankees. Basewinner one and one yesterday, had the Yankees but also it didn’t go so well in that first five for the Basewinner, Seattle and Houston yesterday did not go over five yesterday, so one and one there.
TC Martin:
We look at the current standings, seven games over for yours truly at 21 and 14. That’s a football score right there. Jeff, nine and 14. Basewinner 20 and 17. Today a full slate of games. Looking forward to it. And I don’t know about you guys, I feel good, I should say that about Tuesday cards because again, we get everyone’s best lineup. It’s a full slate of games. We get a lot of teams that are rested, from not playing on Monday. I do like the Tuesday card and there is a lot to choose from today. Some quick thoughts from you on the card today, Jeff.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. Looks pretty good. You got some pitchers, as Mark alluded to that either we like or we don’t like. You mentioned Toronto, they’re going with one of their guys who I’m a big fan of. This is what makes baseball tough. It’s a long season, you have to grind it out. You have to kind of keep coming from the hip and keep doing what you do. And every card’s different. But you start to get these Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. We’re not going to worry as much about bad lineups and things like that. I will continue to say, and I noticed that one of my colleagues I used to work with that bets baseball and he’s a big team total guy and he’s not wrong.
Jeff Nadu:
The offense in baseball right now is just dreadful. It’s really hard to expect a team to get a big hit. You referenced that Houston game last night. You look at a couple of times, Houston had an opportunity, second and third, two outs. You had to get a big hit and they might have did it once but they had a couple opportunities and weren’t able to contribute. And you look at last night, the Mariners can’t do anything. These offenses are bad. There’s not a lot of high scoring games. You’re not seeing a ton of power. These teams are getting hits but they’re just not driving them in the right situations. Baseball’s having some issues right now with offense. It’s not easy to watch.
TC Martin:
No, you’re right. And we look at Major League Baseball right now, they’re dealing with a lot of issues for the lack of offense. Right now guys, the average in Major League Baseball right now is 230. And that is the lowest since 1968. Think about this. 230 is your average that the teams are hitting at this point in time right now. And basically we’re looking at an all time low. And is it just because the pitchers are that good? Or is it because we’re seeing more and more free swingers, we’re seeing strikeouts are up again? Is it that baseball’s like Mark alludes to?
TC Martin:
I think it’s a lot of all of the above in this situation but sometimes baseball is not pleasing to the eye. And again, we could do an entire show on the reasons for this but it’s a big time concern. As we know, all sports guys, The NBA increased everything for scoring. Now we’re seeing games back in the 120s and 130s and then we look at football, what they’ve done, tightened up pass interference and the penalties and all that kind of stuff. Everybody wants scoring. Major League Baseball is not getting any scoring.
Jeff Nadu:
Well, I think one thing real quick, I will say, we have to remember a lot of the time in April, weather in let’s say 70% of these parks isn’t particularly good. But if this by June or July is still like this, they’re going to have a real issue. And look, it’s a little different in basketball. You look at in the playoffs, the numbers are getting a little tighter, they’re little lower scoring. But this is problematic. I don’t think the pitchers have gotten any better. And in fact, they may have gotten worse. I just think for whatever reason, teams aren’t hitting.
TC Martin:
Mark?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. I think definitely the ball is deadened a little bit right now. I think that they wanted to increase scoring and so they juiced the ball in 2019, you had the rabbit ball in 2019 and it kind of backfired. Because what you had is you had players who would normally try to hit line drives, more line drive, single type hitters say, “Well, you know what? I’ve got enough power that with this juiced ball, I can swing hard and hit a home run.” And so that led to more strikeouts and as well as more home runs. I think they’re trying to balance it out. I think that we’re going to get a pretty good game though eventually. But, what they’ve done is I think in my opinion is they’ve introduced a ball that’s a little bit more deadened, you have a run environment right now, 4.08 runs compared to last year’s run environment, 4.5 runs.
Mark Borchard:
But what happened last year is they mixed two different types of balls. They mixed this deadened ball that they’re using right now with a more livelier ball. And I think what you’ll see and unfortunately, Major League Baseball’s and you talked about this on a show last Thursday that I was not on, they’re secretive about it. I thought that was a good word, TC. Why? Why don’t you just say what you’re doing with the ball? It would really help out, especially when you’re sponsored by MGM and DraftKings, which really the ball quality, the ball dynamics are integral to betting, to daily fantasy.
Jeff Nadu:
I wouldn’t expect that to happen.
Mark Borchard:
And the thing is, it’s unfortunate that you can’t. But I think in my opinion, at least, is they’re going to be like, hey, the run environment’s too low. They’ve shown the propensity to mix balls in the past. I don’t think it’s beyond them to throw a livelier ball into play, which makes it really difficult to handicap totals, unfortunately.
Jeff Nadu:
When it comes to sports, I forgot a long time ago about wondering if these leagues are going to do easier things for sports betters especially. It’s weird though now, because of all the kind of involvement that sports betting companies have, they don’t care about gamblers. I’ve talked for years about college basketball and their inability to provide constant injury information. It’s like sometimes throwing darts on these games. I remember during that COVID year where, you had no idea. People would just be out randomly. Sports don’t care about gamblers, even though they pretend to care with some of the things they’re doing and the involvement. But I agree with you on that. They should involve a little bit more with what’s actually going on but it seems like they don’t care in aren’t going to care.
TC Martin:
I’ll say this, guys. There’s a disconnect right now. They do care about gambler. Well, they care about the industry right now because the industry is funneling money into their organizations.
Jeff Nadu:
Then give people explanations, stop with the constant nonsense.
TC Martin:
But here’s where I’m talking about, about the disconnect. From a marketing perspective, those people are integrated in the MGMs, the Caesars of the world, the DraftKings and all that stuff. But when you get inside to the nuts and bolts of it, with the managers and the players and the executives in the front office with that, they still don’t want anything to do with gambling and that sort of thing. But they have these meetings and say, “Hey, we need to embrace this because they are putting money in our pockets. We have sponsorships. We are getting this money from all of these major companies now.” It’s just one of those things. And that’s why you see basically the players, managers that side just is okay, you do what you want, raise your money but we’re still going to say, “Hey, you can’t gamble on baseball.” That sign is still on every locker room door, every clubhouse door that says, “You cannot bet on games,” and this and that but it has opened up to that degree. But as far as anybody caring, one side of the building cares. The other wants nothing to do with it.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. They’re going to have to open their eyes to reality, I think. And I think eventually they will. Who’s watching this Pittsburgh Detroit game, other than if you’re playing in a daily fantasy contest or if you got money on it. It’s really that simple. And I don’t know, TC, agree with you. I think that there’s a large contingency that is, I wouldn’t say anti-gambling but they’re not embracing it like they should. This drives their sport. If you don’t have money on this and I’m kind of biased because I love to bet on it and I’d love to play daily fantasy. But if you don’t have that in that skin in the game, it’s not as fun. I think that eventually they’ll figure that out. But so far I agree with Jeff, they really haven’t. And that goes along the lines with, Hey, here’s a ball. Guess what kind of ball it is guys?
TC Martin:
But look at this guys, when have we ever seen, we never up until what? Two years ago saw on our Fox game of the week or during playoffs and this and that, the all-star game about trying to listen to Joe Buck, give lines, as a joke? You would’ve never thought that and it’s in your face. They’re on your screen, in your face during these nationally televised games. They are trying to shove it down their throat because they are told, “Embrace this because we’re getting money behind it.” It’s right there.
Jeff Nadu:
The problem that they have is, and listen, I don’t really know if there’s no way to change this. Unfortunately, baseball is just what it is. It’s just not as interesting as other sports and for the younger group. Look, every day when I do podcasts and things like that, I try to figure out ways to make even some of the content I’m doing more interesting. And I think it’s interesting but people just don’t have the attention span, particularly men and women between 18 and 30. The attention spans of these people are just not there and they’re not interested in baseball. And the problem you have is most of the old school fans that Mark’s referencing, the guys that are the old timers, just like baseball, they’re just not around anymore. They’re eventually going to not be around. And baseball has to start to adhere to some of those younger people that are involved. And I just don’t think most young people are very interested in it and the gambling thing is what keeps them connected. You’ve got to start kind of.
Mark Borchard:
I would push back a little bit on that. I think there’s a decent amount of 20 to 30 year olds that love playing DraftKing’s fantasy baseball. And you talk about attention span. I don’t know if you’ve played DraftKing’s fantasy baseball. That’s ADD special, you’re looking at your guys go up and down the board and stuff. This is ah!
Jeff Nadu:
Mark, you’re missing the point. I’m not saying that. I’m saying for those people that are doing that, which I agree, they are doing it. You have to start helping them out a little bit and start getting involved with what’s going on with gambling instead of just pretending you care and not, like you’re saying.
Mark Borchard:
Well they don’t care. They’re not even pretending. They’re not even telling us, “Hey guys, we’re experimenting with the balls. We’re going to keep in front of it for you. We understand that you guys want to know.” They’re not even pretending. They’re not just saying, “Oh, we didn’t do anything with the balls.” Meanwhile, there’s scientists, Meredith Wills from the Baseball Hall of Fame, cutting up baseballs and saying, “Look, this is one batch. This is the other batch. They have different aerodynamics.” I don’t know. I don’t even think, they’re not even pretending. They’re just like, meh, we’re going to mess with the ball. And that’s the way it’s going to be.
TC Martin:
The ball issue is a separate entity as far as gambling. And the ball issue is a mystery. And how much of the way the ball is constructed now, has to do with low hitting or whatever. Like I said the other day, it’s crazy that you don’t have this in any other sport. The football is the football and the basketball is the basketball.
Mark Borchard:
That’s such a great point, TC. They did that one game.
TC Martin:
To the T, and baseball they continue to make millions of balls every year and they’re not all the same. That’s the problem.
Mark Borchard:
One game, deflategate.
TC Martin:
Pitchers have and everybody has right now.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. That’s a good point. This would not happen in the NFL. It wouldn’t. It did and when they took the air out of the ball in the Patriots Colts game. They talked about that for weeks. And so I don’t know. I don’t see the same.
TC Martin:
And that’ll never happen again.
Mark Borchard:
I think it’s reprehensible personally what MLB’s doing with the ball and you just don’t hear enough about it, in my opinion. Make the dynamics of the ball public. You can, you know what they are. Anyway.
TC Martin:
Good point. All right guys, good discussion there. All right, let’s get on to today’s game. Got a double header going on in New York today with the Braves and the Mets. And the first game is going to send Charlie Morton to the mound for the Bravos and Carrasco going for the Mets today. Mets a $1.16 favorite in game one. Total is seven on this of money coming in on the over -125 right now at BetUS. Basewinner, I know you’ve got an opinion in game one between the Braves and the Mets. Who do you like and why?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. I’m going to go with the Braves game one, Morton versus Carrasco, guys. I’ve got it priced at -108 for the Braves. You can get plus 106. A little bit of value there. And basically I don’t really see much difference in either of these teams. And if I do, in this particular matchup, it favors the Braves. I’ve got Morton in there. He’s 20% better than the average pitcher. He’s 30th out of a 150 pitchers by my rating. Conversely, you take at Carrasco. I like Carrasco. He’s 83, base winner, run suppression number. He’s 40th out of a 150 pitchers. And so fairly equal there with the edge in my numbers going to Morton.
Mark Borchard:
And if you look at the bullpen, I think we get an edge there with the Braves. I’ve got the Braves in it with an 80, 23rd out of a 150 bullpen setups, the way it sets up for Morton. And with the Mets, the way it sets up for Carrasco, I’ve got him about league average at 91. It’s 59th out of a 150 setups. We also get an edge my numbers in fielding and the offenses, the Mets do have a little bit of advantage but I have them at a 115 projected runs created number versus the Braves 113. Throw that all in the mixer, TC, I’ve got a price at -108. I think plus 106 is pretty good value.
TC Martin:
He’s got that in the mixer there. Always, I don’t want to say the word afraid. I guess I’ll use the word afraid of betting games with doubleheaders. Again, I have to see those lineups first. And again, you know that managers are not going to put their best lineup in either game or if they do, it’s only going to be one game and which game is going to be that? And they usually try to shade that towards their better pitcher. With Atlanta today, they got Charlie Morton in game one and they got Kyle Wright in game two, especially with our earlier game, you usually figure that the manager is going to go ahead and put his better lineup in maybe in the second game. A lot happens, if they win the first game or not. Okay, we got the first game, we’re fine with the split. We got to give our guys a rest. To me, very, very scary. I’m actually surprised that you didn’t go with Kyle Wright in the second game, Mark, instead of going with Charlie Morton, because Charlie Morton, very, very hittable.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. I’ve got it priced. That second game I got it priced and you make a good point about you don’t know what the bullpen setup’s going to be like or if they’re going to bench players after that first game. But I’ve got it priced at -119, the market has it at -120. But I don’t know, Wright’s kind of a mystery. You were ahead of the curve, TC, on this Kyle Wright. He’s been pretty amazing from a conventional saver metric, you name it standpoint. He’s got a 73 Stuff+ and I think I started him off at the season with at 110, 10% worse than the average pitcher. And I brought him down to 10% better.
Mark Borchard:
And I don’t know if that’s fair. I think maybe he’s better than 10% better than the average pitcher. It’s just confusing with Wright. Just kind of I’ve got to wait and see a little bit more body of work, but so far so good. And good call on that, TC. You were you’re well in front of that Kyle Wright resurgence. In fact, you said he was the best guy in the Atlanta rotation and I thought, you got to be kidding me? But he’s really proved to be the best guy in the Atlanta rotation so far.
TC Martin:
He’s got great stuff and then I said, Max Fried, you could put them one in one A and then Fried had another good game the other night as well too. We’ll see if the Braves that can pick it up. Jeff, thoughts on today’s Braves Mets game.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I’ll continue to say if I could just make picks on this show as opposed to putting them in ahead of time, I would do better. I’m not making excuses, but I would. This is a game I looked over last night. It found its way over. Six and a half is too low in Mets games. I think seven’s probably too low. Carrasco finally came back to earth last game. I’m not a big Wharton guy. Whenever you have a Mets involvement in the game, you have to lean over the total. The lineup’s very good. I don’t totally trust their bullpen, even though I know it’s been very good. I don’t know, weather’s getting better in New York. I know a lot of over money’s coming in on this game. A lot of sharp over money. I kind of lean the over, but I didn’t play it. I’m kind of in agreement with you on the doubleheaders. I’d probably almost lean on maybe Atlanta in the second game, Mets in the first game.
TC Martin:
Yeah. And if I’m going to bet that second game, I’m going to see what happens in the first game then I’m going to check the lineups for game number two. But any rate, we’re rooting Basewinner on. Lock him in with the Atlanta Braves, Charlie Morton plus 106. Getting some plus money, getting some value there today against the Mets.
TC Martin:
All right, next game guys, talking about the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays. We talked about these two teams, both capable of hitting the heck out of the baseball. And right now the Yankees are doing it. They’ve won 10 in a row with that victory yesterday but another one run victory. Jays are a $1.30 favorite in this game, Yankees plus 120, total seven and a half, shaded slightly towards the over in this game. All right, Jeff, start us off here with the Yankees and the Blue Jays.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. As you alluded to, I lost this one last night but I’m going to go back to the well with Toronto again. I’m going to kind of just keep staying true to this team. I like Manoah, I’ve talked about that. He’s been sparkling to start the season. He’s their best pitcher. And Mark kind of talked about it. You both talked about it, they’re hitting the ball. It’s they’re getting a little unlucky. I feel like in this spot, it’s a better outlook for them. I felt like this line should have been a bit higher. I felt like at 130, it was a pretty good one. I’m not a big Taillon guy. Never really have been even back to when he was in Pittsburgh, I’m just going to kind of back a team and a guy that I like. I’m going to stay true. I’ll probably be on Manoah a lot this year, unless his numbers kind of get out of control.
Jeff Nadu:
Maybe this line should be a little higher, like I said. I’ll take the value that I’m getting on the Toronto Blue Jays at 130. We’ll hope the ball bounces a little bit different than it did last night. We obviously have a pitching advantage here to me with Manoah against Taillon. I am a bit worried, I thought maybe about just a first five here, not worrying about the bullpens, because look, the truth of the matter was, and the Yankees have the best bullpen in baseball. It’s hard to go against them because they’re just not going to give a lot of runs up late. I feel like if Toronto’s down at the first five, they’re probably not going to win this game but I’ll back Manoah. Hopefully he can go decently deep into this game and we can get a winner.
TC Martin:
See, this is one of these spots that I really love. I love betting on teams and I mentioned this before, good teams, good offensive teams coming off losses, especially at home. And then you’ve got your best pitcher going the next day against a substandard pitcher. Taillon I think is a substandard pitcher. And he’s one and three against Toronto with an ERA of nearly five. I think it’s 4.88 to be exact. And Manoah, Jeff, you talked about him before. I’m with you. I love this guy. He’s won eight straight starts. Think about this. This guy’s won eight straight starts and he even gets better than this. Toronto has won his last 12 starts that this guy has gone to the hill. Last time he faced the Yankees just a couple weeks ago, he went six innings, gave up one hit. And I really believe that these Toronto bats are close to busting out again.
TC Martin:
George Springer, the top, he’s been phenomenal, both at the dish and also in the field. Actually saved the game for them against the Astros the other day, when it looked like Houston was going to come back and win that game, but Springer’s been fantastic. He’s healthy, at the top of the lineup. Bichette is hitting the ball. He had a couple hits again yesterday. No, I think Toronto’s bats are going to bust out against Taillon tonight. And like I said, they had nine hits last night. I love the Blue Jays in this game. And Manoah, let’s just keep riding him. I know he’s going to throw in a clunker maybe every now and then but right now I think it’s a good spot for Toronto.
Jeff Nadu:
Real quick, this guy’s been dominating good teams. He’s dominated the Yankees, Houston and even Boston. I think we’re going to have to start by the all-star break, start talking about this guy. I’m not going to come out and say he’s going to win the Cy Young, but this guy’s been terrific and he’s on a good team that’s going to be in the contender series. I like him a lot.
TC Martin:
Yeah. Four and oh, on the season thus far. And he is rolling. Basewinner.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. I’m going to pass on this game, which I think is saying something for as high as I am on the Yankees. I’ll agree with, I’ve got a price with the Yankees at -111. But why I’m going to pass on it is I agree with everything you guys just said, Manoah is somebody that you have to watch for sure. I’ve got him in at 38th out of a 150 pitchers. And perhaps that’s a little bit, I don’t know, that’s not as nice as it should be for Manoah. His Stuff+ is 75% compared to Taillon’s stuff, plus at 63%. Why I’m not playing the Blue Jays other than my pricing. I guess this gets down to, well, if you like the starter Manoah better than Taillon, why do you have the Yankees favored? And I just, this bullpen, I just can’t say enough good things about the Yankees bullpen and the way this thing sets up for Taillon, the way the bullpen sets up is much from a run suppression standpoint, much greater than the way it sets up for Manoah.
Mark Borchard:
If we get into a late inning situation particularly, and I thought that the Yankees used their B team bullpen by my numbers last night. All their really good arms are available tonight. That’s why I would have a little bit of trepidation playing the Blue Jays but I do agree with your guys’ starter evaluations. I think offensively both teams are very good by my numbers, my projection numbers, but they’ve also really hit the ball hard. Yankees number one in baseball, hard hit per nine, Toronto number three. There’s a lot of things to like for both teams. I’m going to pass on the game personally. If I had to play it, I’d play the Yankees but I don’t dislike your guys’ play. I really, I like your read on Manoah. I think he’s a good pitcher.
Jeff Nadu:
Look, the question is, do you ever think the Yankees will lose again?
Mark Borchard:
Well, that’s a good question. And you can’t really play them every time. But I’m what I’m saying, my model’s saying it’s -111. I’m really only saying they’ve got a 53% chance to win a game. I’m not saying they’re going to win every game. I’m saying this is the way I have it priced.
TC Martin:
Go ahead, Mark.
Mark Borchard:
And you know Jeff, what’s interesting about this Yankee team is the market’s either like, oh, this Yankees team’s just the best thing since sliced bread or they’re pissed off. This team sucks. And so I think that my evaluations, while they’re really bullish on the Yankees right now, the market’s going to get, if they keep winning games, the market’s going to catch up with my numbers so I won’t play the Yankees every day.
TC Martin:
A couple things here. First of all, when you do go against the Yankees, it’s when Taillon pitches. You got to go against one of their weak links. And then again, here’s I’m a little bit curious about too. And here’s another thing back to Manoah, that this guy is clutch because he’s pitched in one run games all the time. I believe every one of his starts this year has been a one run game and a one run victory. And that shows me, this guy is never rattled. And we’re due for one of these games where he gets a nice little breeze in the park here. And I think that Toronto today is going to light up Taillon. I believe that. But here’s my question for you, Mark. You say that you got Manoah ranked at 38th. Are there 37 better pitchers than him? I understand you’re going by numbers and this and that, but the eye test says that Manoah is one of the top five pitchers in baseball right now.
Jeff Nadu:
He’s got Drake Jefferies or something higher than Manoah.
Mark Borchard:
Paul Blackburn. Paul Blackburn is my number one, after listening to you guys talk about it.
TC Martin:
And Daulton Jefferies, there you go.
Jeff Nadu:
Mark, you have to admit, that’s ridiculous. 38th, come on.
Mark Borchard:
Well, all I can tell you guys is I do it algorithmically, it’s based on swinging strike rate.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, but what is it measuring? He’s been incredible.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, I’m kind of measuring it, not just looking backward from a descriptive but I’m trying to use in my rankings, I’m trying to use the numbers that translate the best and there’s no perfect correlation. There’s no 1.0 correlation with any number or any set of numbers but I’m trying to use the numbers that correlate the best to the future. I’m not saying that he’s the 38th out of 150 pitchers from his past body of work. I’m saying that based on the numbers that I use to project the future, he’s 38th out of a 150 based on those numbers. And I even said, when I went over it, and I said, “Gosh, you think that’s kind of harsh on him,” but that’s what the algorithm spits out. Based on the numbers that I use to try to project moving forward, he’s 38th out of a 150 guys.
TC Martin:
Well, it’s a good thing that we’re handicapping not for future starts, we’re handicapping for today in his current game. That’s likely to be a little bit skewed for viewers for viewers that are saying, “Well, are you saying he’s 38th?” Or whatever and you just explained that perfectly, that your model basically is talking about the future.
Mark Borchard:
Which is today.
TC Martin:
You can’t look at that for what we’re handicapping.
Mark Borchard:
No, no, no, no. The future is today. This game hasn’t been played yet. The past, those numbers that I’m using to project, are games I’m using to project today’s game. Today that game is in the future technically.
TC Martin:
All right, let’s lock Jeff and I in. We’re on the Toronto Blue Jays today at -130. Next up, battle of the Windy City, South Siders against the North Siders today. And we got, Kopech going against Smyly today. White Sox and the Cubs and the White Sox, a $1.32 road favorite, right down the road there at Wrigley. Very low total of six and a half today. Anytime I see a low total like that, guys, I’m not looking at pitching, I’m looking at the wind is blowing in at Wrigley. If you got any information about that, let’s talk about that. White Sox Cubs, Basewinner, what do you got?
Mark Borchard:
Oh, I like the White Sox here. Kopech’s kind of underperformed this season by conventional metrics and so has the White Sox offense. Really by a lot of different metrics. But I think what’s interesting about Kopech is his stuff is still as good as it ever has been. He’s at an 86 percentile Stuff+. I’m going to hold the number I have there with him. I’ve got him at a 77 run suppression number and I’ve got this game priced at -177 for the White Sox. I’ve got their offense still, even with the injury to Jimenez, I still have their offense at third in baseball.
Mark Borchard:
And we mentioned the Yankees and the Blue Jays. They were one and three respectively in hard hit per nine. Well, the team that’s in the middle there is the White Sox. I like that. I think that the bats are going to come around. They’re hitting the ball hard. I’m going to give Kopech a couple more shots based on just his stuff really. And his body of work over the last, well, I would say 15 starts since last July 1st. For those reasons, I like the White Sox here. I think it’s a pretty good play with the White Sox at -129.
TC Martin:
Jeff.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah, I think it’s a pretty good play. I’m not running the back to White Sox. This groups lost seven of 10 overall. We obviously know there are offensive issues. But they hit lefties pretty well, to start the season, hitting almost 280, which is a lot higher than they’re hit and righties. Drew Smyly, a guy that’s kind of started to hit the skids a little bit over nine and two thirds. He’s given up six runs over his last two. Maybe he’s starting to kind of erode a little bit. And this is a lineup that I think is kind of desperate to do something. I like Kopech. I lean that way here. We know the Cubs suck. The White Sox I think long term are much better. I think the White Sox are the play. I was kind of hoping to lay around 120 here. It’s not too far off, so I guess I definitely lean that way for sure.
TC Martin:
Yeah. Better pitcher going for the Sox today. Both the offense is very inconsistent thus far, so we’ll see what happens. The rivalry underway at Wrigley Field today. All right, so lock Basewinner in for the Chicago White Sox today, -132 on the road.
TC Martin:
All right guys, next up Seattle and Houston. Chris Flexen going for the Mariners tonight and Cristian Javier getting the start for the Astros. The line here, Astros at 152, if you like Seattle, plus 137, total in this game is eight and a half. All right guys, I like this game. I like going against Flexen any time that I can. This guy has lost his last five times to the Houston Astros. His record is 0 and four against the Astros with an ERA of 7. That’s right. And Cristian Javier, again, he’s a spot starter type of guy but he’s two and 0, with a very low ERA against Seattle, 0.53 is his ERA. This Seattle team is just a very streaky team for me. Very, very streaky.
TC Martin:
They’ve lost five of their last six games, before that they won four in a row. I know Mark likes their offense. I can like their offense at times but they are just very, very inconsistent. The Houston Astros’ bats, they’re starting to light up. Altuve, he came back in the lineup last night. He’s a 100% ready to go. For the first time, the Astros have really got their A lineup together, guys. I love the Astros. And tonight I am telling you why I’m going with the Astros as well. Because tonight ladies and gentlemen, will be the 2,000 victory for my man, Dusty Baker. That means entrance into the Hall of Fame for that magic number of 2,000. Wearing the Dusty Baker jersey today, guys. That’s right. See it, weep it. There we go. My man, here we go. Dusty, 2,000 winner for the Astros tonight. Let it go.
Mark Borchard:
Wow. That’s tremendous, TC.
TC Martin:
You’re up, Basewinner.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah. I don’t even know how to respond after that. That was better than wrestling. I want to turn on WWF right now. But to me it’s priced kind of where it needs to be. It’s -147 in the market. I’ve got it -151. And I think that says a lot because I am high on Seattle. I do like Javier much better than Flexen in this situation. One of the interesting things about Javier is his Stuff+ is in the 86 percentile. Flexen’s stuff, plus five percentile. You got to like that. I don’t think there’s there’s value either way but I’ll be rooting for you. If anything, the model says that there’s just a slight amount of value on Houston but I don’t know, man. That WWF tirade, that was pretty good, man.
TC Martin:
Ooh. Yeah, brother get ready. Yeah, little Astro victory tonight. Little Macho madness too there, Basewinner. Yeah. Go ahead that Jeff Nadu. What do you think about that?
Jeff Nadu:
This show turned cringy pretty quick. I don’t have much on this game. I think it’s a tough one. I’ll be honest, I like Houston. They’re a 500 team though right now. They’re not that trustworthy offensively. Last night, as I mentioned kind of struggled at times to get a big hit. And I don’t really like Seattle either. I’m kind of high on Flexen. I thought the price kind of, to be honest with Mark, I thought it was a little high. I feel like we’re pricing Houston, they’re hitting the baseball and they’re that team that we’ve expected so far. I wasn’t really running to lay 157 with Houston to be real honest.
TC Martin:
Yeah. I believe this line opened 138, 139. People are thinking like I am, I guess. I don’t know. But they’re seeing that the Houston bats are starting to come alive, but early money late last night and today are coming in on the Astros. It did not open at this number of, guys. It’s starting to hit. We’ll see, maybe it comes back down, whatever. But again, just think good spot. Again, Javier’s not great. Again, he’s serviceable. But again, just one of those spots, think the Astros are starting to come alive. And like I said, my guy’s going to get his 2,000th victory, if it’s not tonight then I’ll double down, triple down the next day or two. There we go. But lock me in for the Houston Astros at the price of 152.
TC Martin:
All right, next up the Tampa Bay Rays and the Oakland A’s. Here we go again with Mark and his A’s. Tampa Bay -122, a total in this game is seven, shaded to the under at -120. Basewinner, what do you like here? I got a feeling you’re going to go with the Rays.
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, I don’t understand this market price. I’ve got it price at -161. Market has it priced at -122. Pretty good value with the Rays. And I’m not really high on Yarbrough. I know that he’s hasn’t had made a start this year but I have him at league average, a little bit worse than league average at 2% worse than league average. But I just can’t get behind Paul Blackburn and I’ve got him 12% worse than league average. I’ve got this bullpen, the way it sets up for Blackburn as a 142 of the setups out of 150. I like the Rays’ bullpen. They’re pretty good. They’re 40. This setup for the Rays, I don’t think Yarbrough is going to get a lot of work today. I think we’re going to see a lot of that Tampa Bay bullpen, which is good for this play because I have them with a run suppression number of 85, which means 15% better than average.
Mark Borchard:
Offensively, a big advantage for the Rays. And I really don’t like the Rays’ offense comparatively. I have them 18th out of 30 teams but they’re better than 28th out of 30 teams where this Oakland offense sits. A lot of reasons to go with the A’s here. Now I just want to go into my three metrics for Paul Blackburn because by the standard numbers, he’s like, well, this guy’s got some strikeouts. He’s not walking a lot of people. You look at that and you say, “Well, maybe this guy’s turned it around.” But I’m going to disagree with that. If you look at the 3M chart, of his four starts this year, the average of his percentile is just 50%. A league average pitcher at best. And if you look at it from last year, he’s 208 out of two 11 pitchers. I just, I can’t get behind Blackburn. It’s not a play entirely on the starting pitcher matchup but that certainly plays into it. But all the components the Rays have an advantage on. I think this is a good price, -122 to go with the Rays, TC.
TC Martin:
Okay. Jeff?
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I don’t know. Seems like you just keep betting against Blackburn and you keep losing, yet you keep going after him. Listen, you could say it’s not about the starting pitchers. You know damn well, Mark, it’s the starting pitchers.
Mark Borchard:
No, no I don’t know damn well. I think that you got to be, to be successful as a baseball handicapper you’ve got handicap bullpens. You should really almost handicap it from the back to the front and this is not about starting pitchers for me. I don’t think Yarbrough’s going to pitch more than three innings, personally.
TC Martin:
Well, you better handicap this bullpen because he’s going to go probably one inning or two innings because that’s all Yarbrough does for this team. And again, I cannot stand what Kevin Cash does with this opener garbage and that’s what you’re going to get tonight. And I do like the A’s in this game. I didn’t make it an official play but I think I would and should because Blackburn has been good as we know. And again, one nothing shut out, victory over the Giants last time around, before that pretty solid again. He’s been solid every time he’s tooken the hill and the A’s are going to snap that four game slide. Remember the A’s with Lawrie, they’ve had injuries. Those guys are back now. And I do like the A’s in this spot and again, Yarbrough’s going to go an inning or two. You’re going to get into that bullpen, which I don’t think that Tampa Bay, especially middle relief is very good. I think the A’s jump on them. I like the A’s in this spot.
Mark Borchard:
You don’t think the Tampa Bay bullpen’s good?
TC Martin:
I said the middle relief is not good. And that’s what you’re going to get for six innings, seven innings, tonight.
Mark Borchard:
I would respectfully disagree.
TC Martin:
That can’t be good. But remember, this is not the same Tampa Bay team that we’ve seen the last couple years.
Jeff Nadu:
And we respectfully disagree that we don’t think Blackburn.
Mark Borchard:
That’s fine. That’s why there’s a market. And that’s why we’re betting it.
TC Martin:
Blackburn is better than the first three ham and eggers, that they’re going to throw out there tonight for Tampa Bay.
Jeff Nadu:
And look, I will say, I wouldn’t mind.
Mark Borchard:
You making it an official play, TC?
TC Martin:
Sure. Why not? Put me on there. Let’s go for four plays today.
Mark Borchard:
Okay. Let’s go. Let’s go head to head. I love it.
TC Martin:
Put it on there.
Jeff Nadu:
He’s not wrong. I wouldn’t mind going with.
TC Martin:
That’s my graphic speech back there. I’m sorry. I do like the A’s tonight.
Jeff Nadu:
I wouldn’t mind going with Oakland first five. Highlighting Blackburn.
TC Martin:
Come on. Let’s go. Jeff and I are the Blackburn twins. Let’s go.
Jeff Nadu:
No, I wouldn’t go full. He’s not wrong about their bullpen. I don’t trust their bullpen. It’s a bunch of clowns in their bullpen and that’s the problem. And that’s where it’s a shame for Blackburn. He’s going to have some issues with some of his stuff just because I feel like he’s a good pitcher. Just the bullpen’s not good. He’s not wrong there. That’s a concern. If I would bet this, it would only be first five. That’s my opinion.
TC Martin:
All right guys, let’s lock Basewinner in there at -122 with the Tampa Bay Rays. A nice little friendly side wager there with him and I there.
TC Martin:
All right, one more game that we’ve got to hit on. And that is the Giants and the Dodgers, guys. I want to add this myself here in this game. Rodon going for the Giants tonight and Urias for the Dodgers. San Francisco is without a bulk of their lineup. They’ve been hit hard by COVID so they have no Duggar. They’ve got no Leon. They’ve got no Yastrzemski, all out with COVID. Peterson has got a groin injury. La Stella’s got an Achilles injury. Longoria is out as well, too. Really basically you got Ruf and really nobody else. Now the COVID guys are expected to maybe be back maybe on Wednesday or Thursday but not tonight.
TC Martin:
For me, I’m going to take a shot with Urias in this game. And I know Rodon has been lights out but I think this is a good spot for the Dodgers. Dodgers are healthy. They’re hitting the baseball but this is a play against the Giants offense. Conventional wisdom would say, “Okay, maybe take a shot with the under, in this game here too.” But no, I’m going to take a shot with the Dodgers against Rodon. The Giants are depleted tonight. Late information came in. I’m all over the Giants. Quick thoughts on that, Jeff and Basewinner?
Mark Borchard:
Yeah, you’re right about the Giants offense, Slater, Ruf, Flores, Crawford, Estrada, Dubon, Luke Williams, Joey Bart and Casali. Not exactly murderers. Roe. Where I have pause with it though, is Urias is, we talked about this on another show. In 2021 had elite command and I’m just not seeing it with the numbers. I love Carlos Rodon. His stuff, 94% Stuff+. I’ve got the thing priced at -117. I want to pass on it but I do agree with you on the Giants being out and not having their best guys in the lineup. That’s a good way to look at it but it’s not showing up in the line.
TC Martin:
Jeff, quick thoughts.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. I lean San Francisco as well. You made a good point about their lineup, things like that. We’re still dealing with, at what point are we not going to be doing this COVID stuff? Not that it’s not a problem but come on. Are we going to do this forever? At what point?
Mark Borchard:
I’m with you, Jeff.
Jeff Nadu:
Yeah. How long are we going to keep going on with this? But that being said, look, I’m big on splits. Dodgers hit 223 against lefthanded pitchers. Rodon’s been solid. Caesar Rodon’s been around for a while at this point, but he’s been getting it done. 38 strikeouts and he’s been fantastic. I’m going to kind of lean on a low scoring game. This kind of screams 3-2, 4-1 to me, something like that. Maybe 2-1, something like that. I maybe under in San Francisco, I’m going to lean on that.
TC Martin:
Okay. Frank, hopefully answered your question with that with the Giants and the Dodgers. One quick question with Minnesota today, Mark wants to know about Basewinner’s model today with the Twins against the O’s.
Mark Borchard:
Oh, really?
TC Martin:
Get back on the Twins?
Mark Borchard:
It really likes the Twins. The price is -225 for the Twins. The market is priced at -152. I do have some concerns about Ryan but it’s something that, and the Stuff+ number comes from Eno Sarris. And they talked about Joe Ryan and kind of he’s kind of fooling Stuff+ because of his delivery. He kind of leans with his elbow a little bit. The Stuff+ isn’t getting picked up there but it’s still at 33% compared to Zimmerman’s 43%. But if I had to play it, I’d go with the Twins. I may make a play on that just because of the difference in the line. That’s the way I would play that particular game. That’s what my model’s saying.
TC Martin:
Okay. All right, guys, let’s go to our best bets and wrap things up here for today on this Tuesday. Full card of games. Jeff’s going with the Blue Jays at -130 at home. I’m joining him on that one. Basewinner has got Atlanta in the game one of the doubleheader with Charlie Morton against the Mets. Atlanta plus 106. The White Sox at Wrigley against the Cubs -132. Then he likes Tampa Bay at Oakland tonight, laying 122. Some good prices in Basewinner’s favor there. For me, it’s I like the Blue Jays along with the Astros and the Dodgers tonight. And yes, I like the A’s as well too. We’ll jump in on it. Just to have some fun with Mark tomorrow so we can have another Blackburn conversation, it’s always so much fun.
Mark Borchard:
Take the B out of the front of his name and replace the burn with bum. And you’ve got lackbum. I hope that’s how he pitches tonight.
TC Martin:
Okay. Okay. And the B with Baker. Baker tonight and the Houston Astros’ victory 2,000 of Dusty Baker’s managerial career. All right, there we go, guys. We appreciate everyone for joining us. Make sure you like and subscribe to the BetUS MLB Show here in BetUS TV so you can get those notifications. Click that bell so you know when we go live. For the Basewinner and for Jeff Nadu, TC Martin saying so long. We reconvene tomorrow at 12:00 noon Eastern, right here on BetUS TV, the MLB Show. Have a great day.
