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TC Martin:

And glad to have everyone with us here on this Wednesday edition of the MLB show. TC Martin here, along with Scott Spreitzer; the Basewinner, Mark Borchard, as we give you some baseball winners today here, looking at a full slate of games on tap here. And thank you for joining us here on BetUS TV. Scott, Basewinner, great to see you guys again; the Monday, Wednesday, Friday crew. Scott, how you doing?

Scott Spreitzer:

I’m doing all right, man. I can’t wait to jump into these games. I was just talking to Mark before you jumped on, TC, and last night I had zero plays until late, late in the day. Well, it wasn’t that late in the day, I guess, because I think the game went at like 6:40 PM Eastern. But it was late, relatively speaking, when I finally added the Angels in the first five, and it ended up being a tie or a push. They gave up a run in the bottom of the fifth. But bummed to see Mike Trout not get to that eight home runs in eight games, he missed by one game. But anyway, it was a good night. I know it was a good night for the Las Vegas Aces and one TC Martin who was doing, of course, the play-by-play, as he does for the Aces. So impressive performance last night for the ladies.

TC Martin:

Yeah, the Aces were good last night. I think they actually played their most complete game of the entire season last night when they needed it the most, in a very pivotal game number two. So now they got a 2-0 lead, so off to Connecticut. So hopefully I’ll be joining you guys barring any problems tomorrow and Friday from Yukon country, so look forward to that. And the Aces covered last night too as well, Scott, so that was good. But in baseball, I felt pretty good. I didn’t get a chance to watch any of the baseball games, but 2-0 last night, so that was good. The Braves finally got off the schneid, so that was good. And then I didn’t get a chance to see the game, Basewinner, but looks like the Yankees, I guess, rallied and we went extra innings again, huh?

Basewinner:

Yeah. That was a really weird, two weird pitching performances yesterday. But be happy you didn’t watch the Yankees game, because that was a real meat grinder if you watched it. Because you had Cole and he struck out 10 and I think he walked two guys, but that’s a pretty good, by the numbers, you look at, you say, “Gosh, the Yankees should probably be cruising here.” But he gave up three home runs and then Judge hits two home runs in the game to get him to 57, so that was exciting. So it’s four to four, and then you went softball on it, TC, so I would be happy.

But I want to talk about this Mets game because I think there was a really unique occurrence last night. And if you look at the Mets box score, you look at the Cubs, they struck out 16 times, they didn’t walk once. And this has only happened 35 times since 2017, and I think there was maybe a sample of over 10,000 games, whatever it was. And when this happens, the team strikes out, the opponent team, so the opponent, the Mets were the opponent, or the Mets, or the Cubs are the opponent of the Mets rather, they struck out 16 times, didn’t walk once. And it’s happened 35 times, 33 and 2 is the record for the opponent. So it was so rare that you’d see a box score like this and then, yet, I had the Mets last night, obviously, that you would lose the game. But it was a weird game. There was a bunt that was thrown, it was… Did you see that, Scott?

Scott Spreitzer:

I saw that this morning on the highlights. Yeah.

Basewinner:

And they blew the call. I mean, the guy was on the wrong side of the lane and they hit him in the helmet, so they missed that call. And then they did another bunt, a safety squeeze where Alonzo kind of misplayed it. It was a tough play, but he threw to the wrong side of the base. And so I just think it was interesting you’d have these two box scores where the pitcher just dominates by the strikeout/walk ratio, yet one’s a meat grinder and one’s a loss. So I thought that was pretty interesting.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Tough for deGrom. And again, I saw the highlights last night. There you go with the Cubs going again, the Cubs have a chance to go for a sweep today. And the Mets, I don’t know if they’re tensing up or what, but we’ll talk about that game a little bit later. So I thought it was interesting too that Basewinner just gave us the meat grinder. I think it’s the first meat grinder reference. Usually, it’s the blender or he’s bullish or boorish, or whatever it is, and now the meat grinder has got into the vernacular. I like it.

Basewinner:

Well, I don’t know what boorish would be. I say bearish. Boorish, maybe that’s kind of a combination.

TC Martin:

Boorish is if you have an accent. You mean to say bearish. Yes.

Basewinner:

I see.

TC Martin:

Scandinavian.

Scott Spreitzer:

I [inaudible 00:04:32], Mark. I understand.

TC Martin:

There you go. Scott knows my weird nuances, so there you go.

Scott Spreitzer:

There you go.

TC Martin:

All right. Let’s take a look at the record board here and continue on here, hopefully with a good day and good rest of the week. This week, [inaudible 00:04:47] our good friend Scott Spreitzer has been on a role. I believe the number is like 15 and 2 in his last 17 games on the show here. So keep on keeping on, keep on trucking, as Eddie Kendricks once said, Scott. So I know you can relate to that.

Scott Spreitzer:

Eddie Kendricks. 14 to 3, I lost last time out on, what would that have been? Monday. So we’re 14 to 3 the last 17. Been doing pretty well on the show and so we’ll hope to keep that going today. We got a runline play for a best MLB bet today, TC.

TC Martin:

Okay, well let’s rock with it guys. All right, let’s get it cracking here. And we’re going to handicap four games on the docket here on this Wednesday. We got a couple early starts today as well. We’ll kind of focus on a little bit of the later starts, so let’s get busy. The Rockies and the White Sox, and the Chicago White Sox a huge $2.40 favorite, but why not? They are playing the Rocks. And the Chicago White Sox, as we talked about before, the reasoning, because Tony La Russa is not in that clubhouse, maybe putting people in the meat grinder, maybe that’s the reason. I don’t know. We do hope Tony La Russa gets healthy. But the White Sox have been hitting the ball, they’ve been playing well, and they’ve got playoffs on their mind here. Total in this game is 7-1/2 shaded towards the under, -125, you want to lay the under in this one. Kyle Freeland going against Dylan Cease. Scott, I got a feeling I know where you’re going in this game.

Scott Spreitzer:

Apparently La Russa is a little bit boorish in the clubhouse, I don’t know, but-

TC Martin:

Boorish, good. Instead of bearish, he is boorish.

Scott Spreitzer:

Absolutely. And the White Sox though have been kind of bearish. Or, no, actually bullish since his absence. And we can move on now.

TC Martin:

Ole.

Scott Spreitzer:

There you go. But listen, they were hitting the heck out of southpaws, as you guys know, for a couple of seasons, including earlier this season, and then they went kind of into a drought. They became kind of average against lefties, but all of a sudden they’re hitting lefties again. And I went back and looked to August 1st and their top 10 at home against lefties, in the metrics that I care about the most, as everybody knows who’s been watching, is OPS, wOBA, Weighted Runs Created Plus, that stuff. And Freeland is a lefty with a high hard hit percentage, a high barrel rate, and I think that he should be hittable in this game on the south side.

And the Dylan Cease has excellent hard hit and barrel rates, and his xERA, 258, so just a little bit above his era. He’s thrown 15 shutout innings in two September starts, he gave up just eight base runners, with 16 Ks in those 15 shutout innings. But how about 118 strikeouts and 90-1/3 innings pitched at home, a 177 opponents’ batting average. So you can almost make a case every time Dylan Cease steps to the mound at home when he’s pitching for the White Sox, and I think we got a pretty good reason to jump on him here.

Now the Rockies, they’ve won, what, 6 of 25 road games since the break, and they’ve been giving up over 5.3 runs per game in those outings. They’re 21 and 46 on the road on the season and they rank 28 OPS, wOBA, Weighted Runs Created Plus on the road against righties, again, going back to August 1st. So I expect Cease to get the job done on the mound. I think the White Sox bats going against this lefty are going to put enough runs on the board, and I lay the run and a half with Chicago. And it’s still not bad, it was like -105 last night, it’s only -115 as we saw on that U.S. board as we speak. So give me the runline with the White Sox. That’ll be my best bet.

TC Martin:

Okay. Basewinner.

Basewinner:

Yeah. I agree with Scott on this one. In fact, I’m going to make it the, I guess you could call it the back leg. I know it’s going to be the front leg of the parlay because it’s the first game. So I’m with him as far as the White Sox prowess versus lefthanded pitching. And I thought an interesting number, and this is since August 1st… And I like to look at the plate discipline stats for these teams. I think that’s a leading indicator of how a team’s going to perform following that particular indicator. And if you look at the walks divided by strikeouts versus lefthanded pitching, you just go to the top of the board and the White Sox are right there at 0.612. So I think that that’s a pretty impressive stat.

You know, personally, I’m not as high on Cease as a lot of people are. If you look at the odds at BetUS for the Cy Young, Dylan Cease -145, and then the next guy is Verlander. And I could probably talk for 30 minutes about both guys and why they shouldn’t be priced out, but I won’t. But I think my point on this one is, this guy is, if he’s Cy Young, he needs to be Cy Young here. So you’ve got a guy who’s trying to make a case for the Cy Young award, you’ve got an offense that’s better, not just overall, but in the respective splits, and then you’ve got a bullpen. That Colorado bullpen’s awful. Colorado’s terrible on the road. I think that this, you only have, there’s only one way to play this, guys, and so that’s why I’m going to go with the White Sox here.

Scott Spreitzer:

Real quick note on that game, by the way, for those who are watching, if they want to jump on board, it goes at 2:10 PM Eastern. So it is an early game today.

TC Martin:

Right. I agree. Only one way you can really think about playing this game and that is with the White Sox. And like I mentioned earlier, the bats are alive, they’re playing well, little renewed confidence. They were, again, one of those teams that we considered a major disappointment for a majority of the season, but they’re back, they’re hitting. And Dylan Cease, basically they got their ace on the mound. Maybe Lance Lynn could be considered the ace too, the way he’s been pitching as of late too. Never thought that I would say that. But the White Sox, they’re getting hot at the right time here in September. So I agree with Scott and Basewinner, only way you can play this-

Basewinner:

But, TC, you make a good point about Lynn. In fact, his rating in the model is a better rating than Cease, which I think a lot of baseball hipsters would consider controversial. But I could make a case for Lynn, and I will by my numbers, that he’s, right now, better than Cease and yet Cease is -145 to win the Cy Young.

TC Martin:

Right.

Scott Spreitzer:

And he hasn’t been scored upon in the month of September. It’s like, it’s tough to not put him there at the top as far as the Cy Young is concerned.

TC Martin:

And just for those that are scoring at home, Basewinner, what would constitute as a baseball hipster? Would that be something the way you dress or just is it more of an attitude, or is it a 20 something or is it an old man? What is that?

Basewinner:

It’s kind of like-

TC Martin:

Plaid pants on the golf course in the ’70s?

Basewinner:

You have like a zip-up hoodie and a backpack and you’re really into these advanced stats. And if the guy doesn’t use the right advanced stat, then you go after him on Twitter. That’s my definition of a baseball hipster.

TC Martin:

Okay.

Scott Spreitzer:

Speaking of hoodies, what’s the price on TC wearing a hoodie with the sport coat, the suit coat? What is up with that new look? I’m going to wear a hoodie and I’m going to throw a suit coat on it. I want to see TC wear that at game three of the WNBA finals as he calls the game. I don’t know why-

TC Martin:

Mine is 4,000 to the no. How’s that?

Scott Spreitzer:

Okay. Thank you. What is up with the hoodie with the sport coat? I don’t want to offend anybody out there who’s doing it, but come on.

Basewinner:

I’ve never seen that, Scott. That’s an interesting look.

Scott Spreitzer:

Oh my gosh. It’s on TV all the time now. And tennis shoes with suits. Come on.

TC Martin:

Yes. I’m with you, man. I’m with you. All right. We’re locking Scott and the Basewinner down with the Chicago White Sox today. Basewinner is making a part of a parlay and Scott’s laying the run and a half, -115, White Sox all over the Rockies today who are just playing out the season. All right, next up guys, San Diego and Seattle. Okay. A little inner league action going here. And in this contest we have the Seattle Mariners at home, $1.53 favorite, that’s because Louis Castillo is on the hill for the Ms. And then we’ve got Clevinger going for San Diego. 7-1/2 the total here, -120 towards the under. Basewinner, I know you like those Mariners, you’re getting back on them. You feeling it? What do you got?

Basewinner:

Yeah, this Castillo’s been really good since he’s gone to Seattle. I’ve got the game priced at -178. And if you look at the offenses, I actually like the Padres’ offense a little bit better, but you just get such an edge here in the starting pitching. I got Clevinger actually, and this is debatable whether he is even league average, but I have him in the model right at league average at 100. And then the bullpen, the significant advantage to the Mariners, I think the Mariners have the best bullpen in baseball. And we’ve talked about this and had arguments about it, I think, with prior analysts. But I think that this Seattle Mariners’ bullpen is, by some charts, either number one or number two, you could argue maybe Cleveland’s right up there, against the bullpen with the Padres. And I have them ranked right about mid-pack, 15th on one chart, 17th on another chart, so we get a significant bullpen edge.

And then if you just look at the starting pitchers’ Basewinner ERA. And I mentioned that Clevinger I have in the model at league average, but if you look at his Basewinner ERA at Basewinner.com, it’s 4.53, which is actually significantly below league average, in the wrong way. And Castillo I have at 3.26, and that’s pretty tidy overall for Castillo. And then if you look at how he’s done since he’s gone to Seattle and just taking a look at his median strikeouts per walks, median strikeouts at 7.8 per game, walks is 1.1. And then his ground ball percentage is pretty decent too at 0.47, gives him a quick ERA of 2.18, so that’s 45% better than a league average pitcher. I’m going to take Castillo, significant pitching advantage, and then if it gets late, we got an edge here in the bullpen, guys.

TC Martin:

All right. Scott?

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah. I mean, you hit it on the head with Castillo. My gosh, Mark, seven starts since he became a Mariner and he’s been sizzling hot. At home, three starts, a sub 180 ERA at home and a 171 batting average against. You mentioned San Diego a little bit better offense in today’s situation, top 10 since August 1st on the road against righties, but I don’t believe they’re going to get to Castillo. Interesting thing about Clevinger, when I handicap Clevinger, especially after his last couple of starts, I have to remove the Dodgers from his schedule because he’s been absolutely torn apart in three starts against LA this season.

He gave up 14 earned runs, 20 base runners, five home runs, and a 291 batting average against in just 13 innings. He’s lasted less than five innings pitched per start against the Dodgers in those three outings; it’s a 9.69 ERA, a 154 WHIP, 3.46 home runs per nine innings pitched when he goes against the boys in blue. And here’s the thing though, against everybody else, 3.20 ERA, WHIP is just above 110, batting average against is below 220. Those are really nice numbers when you remove the Dodger starts from his outings.

So he just faced LA, by the way, back to back, his last couple of starts and they destroyed him again. So it’s kind of funny because you would think that he’s going to come out and he’s going to be obviously extremely happy to see anything but a Dodger jersey. And it’s amazing that they’ve been able to just tear into him all three outings, but he’s been solid against everybody else for the most part, so it’s a lean on Seattle. I do like Castillo here, but I decided not to play it for that reason, because Clevinger is good against everybody as long as it’s not the LA Dodgers. For whatever reason, they just tear him up. They treat him like Corbin a month ago, like he was pitching when he is going against the Dodgers. Against everybody else, he’s a little bit, he’s not Cy Youngish, but he’s not bad.

TC Martin:

I saw what you’re talking about, Scott, because Clevinger can be good at times. And to me, I was looking possibly doing an under in this game as well too, for the reasons that Mark talks about with Castillo. He has been fantastic. And of course, anybody gets out of Cincinnati, that’s going to be a breath of fresh air, especially in that Seattle air there. So possibly an under tonight in that game as well too, but I see where Basewinner’s going with that. So, yeah, what will Clevinger do against this Mariner squad, which I don’t believe he’s faced in a couple of seasons as well too? I know Clevinger came over from Cleveland in the miracle league, so he probably faced them, but it’s been a while.

Scott Spreitzer:

I was looking, yeah, I looked all the way, I looked back to 2020 when he only threw about four or five appearances, and it wasn’t even then either, so it was before that. And when it goes back three or four years, I just stop looking because the rosters have changed so much.

TC Martin:

Yeah. My point, exactly. Maybe we get a bunch of zeros in this game as well too tonight. All right. So Basewinner, he’s down for the Seattle Mariners. Put him down, lock him in. Hopefully, Castillo can keep on doing his thing. It’s part of the parlay, right, Basewinner? It’s the White Sox and Mariners parlay.

Basewinner:

Yeah. And it’ll play nice if it hits, plus 134 would be the return. So I like that, plus money on two. I think those teams are deserved favorites.

TC Martin:

Yeah. I agree with you, like I said. And I looked at both those games myself. I agree with you. So good luck on that one. All right. Next up, guys, the Chicago Cubs and the New York Mets. Mets, what’s going on with them right now, huh? They’re $2 favorite today. A lot of people are thinking, okay, today’s the bounce back game. 7-1/2 is the total, -115 towards the over. I am one of those guys that think it is the bounce back game for the Mets. They were kind of unfortunate last night, like Basewinner said earlier, sloppy in the field, which the Mets can tend to be at times, but maybe bow-downing for deGrom. And the Chicago Cubs, you really don’t know what you’re going to get with these guys at times. But for me, it’s Peterson and Smyly, battle of lefties going at it today.

And Peterson is a guy that I, I kind of like David Peterson. He can be one of those crafty guys, but he is a strikeout guy as well too. He has 117 strikeouts on the year. Didn’t have a great performance last time out, he didn’t go very deep into the game, I think it went in the fourth inning. But then you go back to Smyly, and Smyly has had some surprisingly good outings, but still not crazy about Smyly stuff. He got ripped by the Cardinals a couple starts ago where he gave up seven runs and I’m banking that the Mets’ bats come alive here today and they get to them.

I look at the Mets’ bats very similar to the Cardinals’ bats, so I’m thinking the match up here favors Peterson. The Mets really need to win this game. They need to get this thing together. Braves and Mets battling in the NL east, so this game means a lot to the Mets. I think they’ll lock down. And especially a team that has some unfortunate luck like they had the night before, usually I like to come back with them the next day. I think Peterson will have a decent outing and go six, seven, I hope, get to that pen, will be okay. I’m going to take a shot with the Mets. Scott?

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah. I almost pulled the trigger on the Mets here. I like to look at these teams that are at the tops of their division, maybe not the Yankees as much, but the Astros, the Dodgers, the Mets, Braves, teams like that, Cardinals. If they’re looking to stave off a home sweep, I like to look at them in that last game. The only thing that kept me off of this, well, a couple of things. I mean, Drew Smyly, he had the one bad start in his last seven that came at St. Louis. His other six starts in those seven outings, how about an 0.73 ERA, 0.84 WHIP in 37 innings. So he is going in those games over six innings pitched per start, he’s not doing this in four innings and leaving. He’s given up just three earned runs in those 37 innings, so it’s tough for me to lay two bucks with a pitcher, it’s not just a two game or three game sample size, it’s a good six or seven game size.

And the other part of that equation… And I think the Mets are the right side here, I just couldn’t do it at that price. The other part of that equation for me that makes it just an opinion is that I do like Peterson too, for the most part, but at home, his WHIP is over a 1.40 at home. He puts a lot of guys on base and he’s got to try to get out of that again without letting runs across the plate. And he might get away with it because you’ve got the Cubs who aren’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball against southpaws. So I’m with you in that I lean for the Mets and I’ll be rooting for your play tonight on the Mets, but I just couldn’t… It’s like the Fonz, man. He couldn’t say he was wrong. He would try, [inaudible 00:20:51], right? Well, I tried to say, “Give the Mets.” Give me the [inaudible 00:20:54], and I just had a pass. So just leave it at that.

TC Martin:

I understand. Yeah. And the $2 today, I think the reason why it is $2, number one, it’s the Cubs, number two, the sweep factor. It’s hard to believe that the Cubs would sweep the Mets. Then again, I mean, they were a 455 favorite yesterday and they closed. I know Basewinner was on, that game as part of a parlay. And we talk about, hey, that looked like the right side yesterday. So let’s see if the baseball gods are with us here today and the Mets can get the bats cracking against Drew Smyly. Basewinner?

Basewinner:

Yeah, I think it’s an interesting game, TC. And I’m kind of with Scott, I think the price is a little bit high. I’ve got the Mets. They should be-

TC Martin:

I agree with you guys.

Basewinner:

And they should be at -150. One of the things, though, that I think is important in this game is the Cubs use of their bullpen the last two, I don’t know what they were doing with Hughes yesterday. He had a five out save two days ago, and then they put him in last night and he goes 1.2 innings. So I would say that he would probably, in my opinion, be their best reliever and I don’t think he’s available tonight. So I think that’s one thing. They also used Rucker who’s better than average, so it leaves them with Manuel Rodriguez, Erich Uelmen, and Sean Newcomb. And if you could tell me you knew all those three pitchers were relievers for the Cubs, I’m going to give you a prize, because I didn’t. I had to go look at it. But anyway, my point is, they’re all worse than average. So I think that if you get a tight game at the end, I think we get a sizable advantage in the bullpen, or you will, TC, with the Mets. So I think you might be pretty good as far as that goes if the game goes late.

TC Martin:

Just trying to avoid the sweep, that’s it. And just so you know, Scott knows all those guys because he spends a lot of time in Iowa. There you go.

Scott Spreitzer:

Iowa Oaks. I remember the Iowa Oaks [inaudible 00:22:46].

TC Martin:

Iowa Cubs.

Scott Spreitzer:

Oh, yeah. But it was the Iowa Oaks.

TC Martin:

The Triple-A, that’s where these guys come from.

Scott Spreitzer:

I mean, years ago they were the Oaks. So yeah, I’m a minor league junkie, guys. Just don’t hold it against me.

Basewinner:

Uelmen’s an interesting guy. He spells his name E-R-I-C-H. And then the last name is U-E-L-M-E-N. I mean, there’s a lot of vowels there in that last name.

TC Martin:

That was a mistake at the hospital, I guarantee you. I mean, there was just some miscommunication. Somebody put it and here’s the birth certificate. “Fine. We’ll go with it.” That’s what happened.

Basewinner:

That’s great.

TC Martin:

All right. Put me down for the Mets today, avoid the sweep of the Cubs. Lay it with the Mets today. Continue on here. Milwaukee and St. Louis, all right, our BetUS game of the day. Corbin Burnes against Adam Wainwright. Good pitching match-up here. Virtually a pick’em in this game. Brewers are road favorite because of Burnes, -120, and the Cardinals, +110. Seven, the total in this one, shaded towards the over, -115, despite the two strong pitchers here. Scott, what are your thoughts about Burnes and Wainwright here?

Scott Spreitzer:

Okay. Just an opinion here, but I’m going to actually recommend an over in the first five innings, and I know that sounds crazy when you’re thinking Burnes and Wainwright. They’ve both been a little shaky more often than not of late. Burnes has struggled in, what, three of his last four outings, 13 earned runs, 25 base runners, and 14-2/3. In fact, he walked 10 batters in those 14-2/3 innings in three of those four outings. He’s handled the Cardinals this season, but I think he’s seen them so much and the Red Birds have seen him so much at the plate that maybe they could do a little bit of damage here. They’re top eight in OPS, wOBA, and Weighted Runs Created Plus at home against righties over the past six weeks.

And then on the flip side, you got Adam Wainwright. Now he was pretty bad on the road, him and [inaudible 00:24:36], as TC would say, on the road all season long for the most part, but really good at home. He was dominating. But all of a sudden he’s not dominated at home. He allowed four runs each to the heavy handed bats of the Nationals and the Cubs, with 18 hits allowed in 10 innings pitched to those two teams. So four runs each to those two teams that I just mentioned in 10 innings, that’s crazy, 8 earned runs in 18 hits. So the total, when this opened last night and I was doing my handicap and I thought, boy, just feels a little bit like it’s geared towards the way both of these guys were pitching, let’s say four weeks ago or five weeks ago rather than right now.

And so again, I did get over the top here and say, “Okay, this is it. I’ll play an over 3-1/2 and that’s it.” And I do lean towards Burnes in this one, if you had to play aside. But I do believe that a strong opinion on over 3-1/2 of those first five innings between these two, I think this just looks like it’s going to be a three to two game after five innings

TC Martin:

Basewinner?

Basewinner:

Yeah, I’ll disagree a little bit with Scott, but I can kind of see where he’s going with this because in the model I have both these pitchers rated pretty highly. I’ve got Burnes at 24th out of 150 pitchers. I got Wainwright, and this might be controversial to baseball hipsters, 49th out of 150. But I do use last 17 game median, so I can see where that analysis could differ from where Scott’s going on it. If you look at this though, like I’ve got a projection at 5.9 runs. If you look at Burnes’ last time out, he struck out 14, didn’t walk anybody, so I think maybe he’s got it right, but Wainwright has struggled. So I can see where Scott’s going with that.

I think it just comes down to a comparison as far as how you handicap this game, whether you look really hard at those recent numbers or you say, “Well, I’m going to take a little bit larger sample size, take the median of that, and that’s how I’m going to rate this guy.” But Wainwright has struggled, but I look for him to kind of revert back to what he’s done over the course of the season and I would recommend a full game under in this, would be the play. I think it’s sitting at seven and, like I said, I have it priced at 5.9 runs.

Scott Spreitzer:

And Mark, what you said there is why I kept it from a play, and it’s an opinion, because of the fact that you’ve got, it’s recent stuff. And I like to go back usually about six starts, five to seven starts at least for pitchers, and then I throw out all that junk from April and May. That means absolutely zilch in August and September, to my handicapping. But these last three starts, it’s just a little bit too short of a sample size to go from a lean or an opinion to an actual play.

Basewinner:

Yeah, but you bring up a really good point. What is the magic number? What timeframe do you use? And I would say after, in all my years doing this, I think that there is no magic number. I think it varies from pitcher to pitcher, so you have to really kind of use your brain a lot at it. I think rule of thumb for me, at least in my model, is that’s what I’ve chosen to do based on the research that I’ve done, but I’m not saying that it’s right 100% of the time. And I would definitely, I listen to your handicap and it’s a good handicap, even though I disagree with it.

Scott Spreitzer:

You made a really good point also, and this is why I think sample size on Burnes would have to be at least six or seven games rather than three or four to make it an actual play when you mentioned 14 Ks at his live start. Usually, if he got a guy who’s got three or four so-so starts and he’s been good all year, you could kind of look at his strikeout ratio. You can look at, “Okay, it’s all of a sudden falling off. He’s not striking out eight guys a game anymore, or eight guys every nine innings anymore, he’s striking out five.” And then you say, “Okay, he’s wearing down, but he came right back.” But again, I just, it’s one of those games where I thought, boy, this one looks like an over in that first five innings, but I am going to just make it an opinion and I’ll keep it there. And you know my feelings about full game unders, damn softball rules of the 10th inning [inaudible 00:28:36]

Basewinner:

I hear you, especially in a game like this, which will probably be pretty close. So, yeah.

TC Martin:

All right. So no play from us on that, just opinions on Milwaukee and St. Louis today. So keep an eye on that pitching matchup, and good luck. All right, let’s go to the questions, guys, on the message board. Hit us up real quick. We’ll cover some of the games that we did not touch on, that are not part of our best bets. Ed is asking about the Astros. They go early on today, on getaway day in Detroit. Dusty’s always said big deal for him is getaway day, going for sweeps, getaway day.

Astros have their A lineup on the board here today. Javier is going, who has 15 strikeouts in his last two games, and he is going against Carson Joey Wentz who basically is a career reliever. He’s a youngster, has had one start. Ed is asking about the runline. I think that’s the only way that you can play this, on the runline, especially the way the Astros bats are rolling right now. Talked about it before they came to Detroit that the way they ended that last homestand that, okay, they’re going to put some runs on the board in Detroit, and they certainly have. So that would be my opinion on that, I think you can play the Astros again here.

Scott Spreitzer:

Bats woke up. Bats woke up of late and that’s the way I would go. I was a little bit nervous about Wentz. Listen, I don’t think Detroit’s going to come out and score, they haven’t scored all year. Maybe they get a couple of runs, and if you can get four out of Houston, you cover that runline. But Wentz, I don’t know, not that I’m going to sit here and make a big deal out of Wentz, but he could pitch to the point where it’s a four, three game and you get one of those one run Houston wins. But again, it would be, I have no problem with anybody would want to lay a run and a half here with Houston, plus you get the guaranteed [inaudible 00:30:14]

TC Martin:

Especially on the road. Exactly.

Basewinner:

TC, my model likes the over here. I put it out on the chart yesterday. I’ve got projection 8.5 runs, it’s still sitting at eight. So I think that’s value. It took me a while to get the Carson Joey Wentz reference, but I finally got it. I guess maybe that’s, I was thinking more like Joey from friends every time I see that name.

TC Martin:

There you go. I like that. A Wentz. Wentz not a good thing in sports right now, let’s just say that. Tim wants to know about the Rays and the Jays, Basewinner. What do you think?

Basewinner:

Oh, I’ve got this thing priced right about market. I’m showing the blue Jays at -105, I’ve got the Rays at -101. Model kind of likes the over, 7.9 runs, but I look at these guys’ location plus number. I’ve got Rasmussen at 86 percentile and Stripling at 99 percentile. I think this is one of those games where you don’t bet it, you can just kind of watch it because it’ll be a good game I think.

Scott Spreitzer:

Nothing to add to that other than I made the line 112, so we’re right there as far as where that price is right now.

TC Martin:

All right, Marky Mark without the funky bunch is asking about the total in the Texas Rangers game today. You want any part of the A’s and Rangers with this pitching match up here, Scott, of JP Sears and Dane Dunning?

Scott Spreitzer:

I normally stay away from both of these teams and play the opposite side of whoever they’re playing, and obviously we got an issue here. I would lean over, but I’m staying away from the game completely. We got a full slate and I just haven’t been one to back either one of these teams all season long. I’m going to stick to that.

TC Martin:

All right. Tarik’s asking about the Guardians today, 20 and one at home versus the angel since 2005. Great recon there. Also thoughts on the White Sox, but we already talked about the White Sox. White Sox in a role today as both Scott and Basewinner have that. But any thoughts on the Guardians today?

Basewinner:

Yeah, I think… Go ahead, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

No, I was just going to say I would back the Guardians if I was going to, as good as Sandoval has been at times. Also, check the lineups. This game goes shortly and I haven’t checked the lineups yet, but you could get it trout or Ohtani sitting, a day off, especially Trout falling short of the record last night, as far as home runs and consecutive games. He did have, I think, Sunday off or something like that, but I haven’t checked the lineups yet. But there’s your stat right there from Tarik, that record 20 and one at home against the Angels. Has it been that good? My gosh, I know it was good. That’s crazy stuff. I can’t-

TC Martin:

Trout is in the lineup today, he’s bating second, and Ohtani’s batting third.

Basewinner:

I think-

TC Martin:

Other than that, good luck naming anybody else?

Basewinner:

Yeah, if you, good luck. Yeah. Rengifo.

TC Martin:

Moniak leading off? No thanks.

Scott Spreitzer:

Okay. What do you mean? He’s got a 170 average. Come on. That’s a lead off number.

TC Martin:

That’s par for the course for the modern day lead off hitter in 2022. I get you. All right, let’s to to-

Basewinner:

I would agree with Scott here, Cleveland or nothing.

TC Martin:

MC Riddle, thoughts on Yankees, Boston game and how many homers can Judge get today? Got two last night, he’s on his way. Look out. Looking-

Basewinner:

I like the over here. I mean, why not? I mean, I got it priced at 10-1/2 runs. The over was at nine before the show. So I think that that’s kind of how you play this here. Both offenses are top 10, arguably. I guess maybe Boston would be arguable. But they have some potential. Cortez has kind of been on the slide, in my opinion. I have him just a little bit better than league average right now. And Brian Bello is definitely not Bell-o of the ball, at least not yet. I have 23% worse than average.

TC Martin:

You talking about mellow-Bello? You like a little mellow-Bello?

Basewinner:

No. Is it, remember, have you ever heard the term bell of the ball? Well, this guy he’s not Bell-o of baseball, that’s for sure. At least not yet. But anyway, that’s how I’d play it. I’d go over.

Scott Spreitzer:

Maybe Judge reaches Maris tonight because Bello’s on the hill. Maybe they keep him in there for a while. I’m kidding, but…

Basewinner:

Why are they pitching to Judge? I mean, I think Rosenthal wrote an article a couple weeks back, called it “Aaron Judge and the Sludge.” It’s gotten better than that because it got Stanton and Donaldson back, but I don’t know why you would pitch to Judge right now. Anyway…

Scott Spreitzer:

Especially Boston. It’s your rival. Are you going to let this guy get three or four dingers on his way to Maris against you. If you’re Boston, you’re doing the old automatic walk, aren’t you? Just to stick a little… You’re not going anywhere if you’re Boston, so at least you get to jab them in the ribs a little bit.

TC Martin:

Timmy two shoes, Dodgers, Arizona today, guys. Any thoughts? Basewinner?

Basewinner:

No, I’ve got a priced at -118, unfortunately. I’m looking for reasons to play the Diamondbacks just because their plate discipline’s been so good. And I think this one fell short because as soon as I saw the starting pitcher, Zach Davies, I can’t go any farther than that. But do look for the Diamondbacks, especially versus right-handed pitching. Their plate discipline’s been exceptional.

TC Martin:

Dustin May going for the Dodgers today. Scott, want any part of Dustin May?

Scott Spreitzer:

Is it May or Grove? I thought I saw Grove as a potential starter.

TC Martin:

I saw May, but it could be. Because I know last night, the reason why I didn’t play this game, because I didn’t know who the pitcher was for the Dodgers. And I just saw May on one site.

Scott Spreitzer:

My line service is showing Grove right before the show, so I don’t, it could be May. I saw May yesterday was going to go today, but I’m with Mark. I mean ditto. Davies is on the mound, that scares me off, but Arizona’s been playing pretty good baseball at home for the last 25, 26 games. But lean Arizona if it’s Grove, but not a play.

TC Martin:

There you go. And finally-

Basewinner:

And every time I see Michael Grove listed as a starter, I just think China Grove and I start singing-

Scott Spreitzer:

I was just going to say that. All right, Mark.

Basewinner:

That’s good that you say that because it literally stays in my mind for 30 minutes. That song’s like, ugh.

Scott Spreitzer:

The Doobies, baby. Yep.

TC Martin:

It sounds like walking the dog music there, Basewinner. Whoa, whoa, China Grove.

Basewinner:

You can sing pretty good, TC. That’s pretty good. That was a good rendition, I thought.

Scott Spreitzer:

Little Michael McDonald hosted the show today.

TC Martin:

Okay now, there we go.

Scott Spreitzer:

Oh well, there went the good singing.

Basewinner:

There went the good singing. You should have quit while you were ahead.

TC Martin:

I know. It’s impossible to do Michael McDonald. Like Michael Jackson and Whitney Houston, you got to stay away from those. Try to tell those kids on American Idol and America’s Got Talent, “You stay away from those” Phillies, Marlins, guys. Let’s wrap it up here. What do you got?

Basewinner:

I would go Marlins here. I’ve got the Marlins favored and the Phillies are favored in the market. You can’t get too excited about Kyle Gibson the way he’s performed lately.

TC Martin:

But those Phillies bats have been rolling.

Scott Spreitzer:

Nothing for me. You know what? If Mark likes this game and he’s done his homework, obviously he dives deep into this stuff, I have nothing at all. I made this line of 125, it’s around there, and I just decided to skip it. But as Mark just said, Gibson has not been trustworthy of late, so I’ll side with Mark there.

TC Martin:

Mark’s handicapping classic rock songs too, so there you go.

Basewinner:

Well, speaking of Gibson-

Scott Spreitzer:

And Saved By the Bell.

Basewinner:

Yeah. Saved By the Bell.

Scott Spreitzer:

I was waiting for Saved By the Bell-o.

TC Martin:

What ball park are those two things in?

Basewinner:

I know Gibson is a famous guitar maker, so we can tie that back into the classic rock lesson we’re having here.

Scott Spreitzer:

If we just had a Paul. We need a pitcher with the last name Paul. We need Gibson against Paul. I think we’ll get a Stratocaster, but we might get a Paul one day. I was waiting for Mark earlier, he said Bell-o of the ball, and I was waiting for him to say, “Saved by the Bell-o. But you know, he didn’t go that route.

Basewinner:

Oh, wow. I missed that. It was an opportunity missed, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

I’m telling you. I should have saved that for the next time.

TC Martin:

Swing and a miss. A big swing and a miss. All right, guys. Recap the best bets for today. Here we go. Let’s say get on Scott’s best bet today, the Chicago White Sox, laying a run and a half, -115. Basewinner’s going with the parlay, the White Sox, Mariners parlay today, pay back in the neighborhood about plus 134. And I’m going to lay it with the Mets, trying to avoid the sweep to the lowly Chicago Cubs here today. Hopefully, the Mets get it right today and avoid the sweep and get back on track here as they battle the Braves in the NL East for playoff positioning.

Scott Spreitzer:

I got to say something. I’m just thinking way too much about this, so it’s a good thing we’re almost done with this show so TC can catch that flight. But I’m sitting and I’m thinking, you know, if Bello was in the pen and he came in and saved a game, you know ESPN on Sports Center, one of these guys would be saying, “Saved by Bello.” You know it. There’s no doubt in my mind. [inaudible 00:38:45] before it happens.

TC Martin:

Just the vision of that is upsetting, but that’s okay. All right, guys. Remember we’re here Monday through Friday, 12 noon Eastern, 9:00 AM. Pacific. Click that bell, that way you get the notifications when we go live, and don’t miss it. Again, talk about the team that we got here, Scott and Basewinner, myself on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, and then dynamite Dave Cokin and the Legend on Tuesdays and Thursdays, so make sure that you watch us here. The MLB show on BetUS TV. For Scott Spreitzer and Mark Borchard, the Basewinner, TC Barton saying so long. Have yourself a good one. Don’t forget to check out our sportsbook website. Good luck with the games today, root them home, and we’ll catch you tomorrow right here on the MLB show on BetUS TV.

 

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