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MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Baseball Betting Odds [Wednesday April 27]

Mark Borchard:

Welcome to the BetUS MLB Show here at BetUS. So they’re hitting the ball hard, expected wOBA, which takes in hard hit percentage and launch angle. They’re number five. So I’m not quite concerned by that 80 weighted runs created plus. In fact, I remember watching a couple of the Tampa Bay games where I had the White Sox, and snuck by, to be honest, on a couple of those. But there were a few balls that were hit to the track that were like… And, I mean, this is what’s interesting about kind of the dead in ball that I’ve noticed in listening to baseball games, is really good broadcasters who’ve been doing it for years are calling home runs like, “It’s going to get out of the park.”

Mark Borchard:

And so there’s definitely something going on with the ball. I think the batters being behind the cold weather, and it seemed like this… I think you really have to keep an eye because they’re so power-intense or intensive rather. You got to keep an eye on those ball dynamics. But no, they’re hitting the ball hard. I think they’re going to regress to the good. And the rotation, if you look outside of Cease and [inaudible 00:01:06], who I really like, Velasquez and [inaudible 00:01:10] it’s really hard to get behind those guys. But I think it’s going to be one of those things. They’re in a weak division. I still like their lineup. I’m still high on their lineup. Yeah. I’ve got Hendrix as the number one closer in baseball. Bummer I like as well. They’re middle bullpen, a little bit weak, but I think that at the end of the year, this team’s going to be number one in that particular division.

TC Martin:

All right. We’ll see how it plays out. All right guys, yesterday Basewinner, pretty good day yesterday. You and I both went two in one yesterday. You had Seattle in that victory. Again, you’re riding the Ms to continue on over Tampa Bay yesterday, got there with a parlay. We had our first parlay on the show yesterday. Jeff, Basewinner went with a 260 and a $1.80 favorite on the parlay. And I know you were sweating my man. I had the over in that game as you well. So I was sitting pretty, but that Toronto rally, the Springer homer tied it up in the bottom of the night. Then they went in an extra inning. So I know you were so sweating a little bit.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, well, I will say real quick-

Mark Borchard:

[inaudible 00:02:06].

Jeff Nadu:

… good for him for playing up parlay because the guy’s drinking more juice than me at the club on a Saturday night. Look, good for him. He finally plays a plus money price.

Mark Borchard:

Well, we all have our different styles. It’s worked for me to set those probability lines over the years.

TC Martin:

Yeah. So anyway, so yeah, I went two and one yesterday with the Braves over the Cubs and then got in there with the total that we talked about. And I took that flyer on the As last night at the value play. And here I thought the Giants were at tired ball club, and I mentioned the 11 games in 12 days of the four cities, but it didn’t matter. But I see that we’re going to be talking about that game a little bit later on. So we’ll have some more opinion on that game and the rest of the card coming up. All right. So a pretty deep card here again today. Everybody is in action. So let’s get right to it with today’s games.

TC Martin:

And we got a early one and we’re going to jump in with the Mets and the Cardinals today. Carlos Carrasco back at it for the New York Mets against Steven Matz, the former Met. The Mets $1.23, favorite of the total in this game is seven slightly shaded to the over at minus 115. And Matz, this is a pretty interest story. Matz people remember him, Matz, Matts Motz, call him whatever you want. Used to be with the Mets. And then they wanted to have him back this year, but they couldn’t get a deal done before the lockout happened. The Cardinals swooped him up. A little bit of controversy here. And I know Jeff that you got an opinion on this game with the Mets and the Cardinals.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I played this at 115. It’s moved up to mid 120s, around 123, 125. I bet Carrasco last time out. It came in. I’m going to take him here again. He’s been very good to start the season, 18 to the third. He’s only given up a couple of runs. He’s been a nice solid workhorse for this group. Look, this Metz team’s very good. Okay. I think we can all kind of agree with that. They have a great lineup. Bullpen’s nasty, and they’ve I think took as far as I know the best pitching rotation in baseball [inaudible 00:04:12] everything together well up there with the Yankees. We know Mark has talked about the Yankees’ bullpen. This Met bullpen’s been good as well.

Jeff Nadu:

I look at Matz and the other side, the not a big fan of him. I never really have been. I thought he was okay against or when he was with the New York Mets, but just not a real big fan of him here. I’ve said before, I don’t have a lot of luck MLB betting against the Cardinals in my career. So that’s obviously a little concerning here for me. And this is the team in the Mets that quite frankly have struggled a little bit it against southpaws. I think this is probably a lower scoring game. I think it’s a lot like Carrasco’s last outing. I think it was like three one or something like that. I’ll just take this Mets line up. I’ll take the better pitcher. I’ll take the better bullpen. I’m just going to go with something that works. I bet Carrasco last time as I said, going to go with him here again. And this number’s ticked up the right way as far as I’m concerned.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Mets 14 and 5, tremendous record. They’re clicking all cylinders, both at the plate and also like you mentioned, the starting pitching as well as the bullpen as well too. Base winner, thoughts on this game.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. The model has it priced at minus 106 for the Cardinals. So that’s indicating value on the Cardinal side. It’s concerning for me. I’m going to pass on it and kind of here’s why. If you look at Carrasco’s game logs, they’re really good. So I don’t want to bet against that. 87 percentile, 81 percentile, 72 percentile. And then Jeff mentioned the Mets bullpen. The Mets’ bullpen is really good. Even by the advanced metrics they’re fourth in baseball by my numbers right behind the Yankees. And if you look at the Cardinals, they’re 26 in baseball. So this is kind of a situation where some of the ancillary numbers disagree with my model. So I’m going to pass on it.

Mark Borchard:

The one thing that’s concerning to me about the Mets if you do want to play the Mets is if you look at the stuff plus numbers for these pitchers, Matz is 48 percentile, which isn’t great, but Carrasco at 29 percentile. So there’s pause for me in a lot of ways. And I think there’s better value on the board in my opinion,

Jeff Nadu:

Keep in mind. One thing that I’ll point out to the chat, this early line movement, when this line first came out the Mets were bet up to about where they are and where they were. And now it’s been bet down. So again, the sharp money, the sharp indication is the Mets took early money and some of the square stuff is brought back. But I think it’ll be an even be bat game. Look, I don’t think this has got tons of money on it by any means, but I think sometimes you have to just have to go with the better team. Look, you’re getting the Mets who are 14 and 5 with the advantage of really every level at a pretty solid price. I think it’s worth it.

TC Martin:

All right. Let’s lock Jeff in for the Mets today kicking off the card here, minus 123, the New York Mets. All right. And next game on the docket guys, it’s Kansas City and the Chicago White Sox. We talked about the White Sox at length in their eight game slide and the reasons for that. They were shut out yesterday by the Kansas City Royals six nothing. Today though Sox a big favorite, minus 200. Can’t remember last time I saw a $2 favorite for a team that’s lost eight in a row. If you like the Royals, plus 170 low total here. And it is seven to the under. And the reason for that being guys, very chilly temperatures here today as well too. And this is a game that has been moved up. This was scheduled as a night game, but since it’s going to be about 32 degrees around nine o’clock Chicago time, so it’s shaded towards the under, at minus 175.

TC Martin:

Greinke is going back on the hill of Kansas City. Greinke as we’ve talked about, he’s a control guy, not a big strikeout guy, but he’s been more than serviceable his first couple starts here. Dylan Cease going to the hill for Chicago. And I would love to get on the White Sox here, but again, it’s… And I know they’re not going to lose every game. And with that offense of eventually they’re going to get cracking again here. But I’m not sure I want to jump in front here and be on this White Sox team. Basewinner, what about you?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I think this is a great opportunity from a pitching standpoint to just get a huge mismatch. And we’ve talked about Greinke and my lack of confidence in him. And he’s a 126 out of 150 in the Basewinner ratings. Cease I’m high on him 20th out of 150 pitchers. And I think that the… I’d be concerned with the White Sox a little bit more offensively if they’re riding the bottom of that hard hit metric chart, which is where their opponent is right now in Kansas City. But the fact that they’re number two and hard hit per nine, number six in expected wOBA based on hard hit metrics. I’m not really even concerned about it. I think that the balls are going to start falling in.

Mark Borchard:

One of the interesting things about this matchup from a pitching standpoint is that the huge disparity in stuff plus, and Cease is number two on the board with a 90 percentile stuff plus. And compare that to Greinke who surprisingly you wouldn’t think this with Zack Greinke’s history. He’s a 15 percentile, which puts him about fourth from the worst on today’s board. So I think for all those reasons my price is minus 292. I agree with my price. I’m going to lay the wood here with the White Sox.

TC Martin:

Jeff.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I mean, we obviously alluded to the fact of all the issues the White Sox have, yet this number opened 160. It’s been consistently bet up up to 200. So yeah, the money’s going the right way. I like the White Sox here as well. I mean, they’ve not played well. We’ve kind of beaten that up, but Mark’s right. I mean, they’re just kind of, as far as the lineup, they’ve just been a little unlucky. Cease has got great numbers in his career against this lowly Royals lineup. I know he’s been kind of betting against Greinke. He has a feel for that. This is not a good Royals team either. So I get it. Yeah. I agree with this.

Jeff Nadu:

Am I laying 200? No, not particularly. But if you made me bet it, I would definitely take the White Sox. This seems like a 5-1 type of win for the White Sox, kind of get back on the track a little bit. Look, the only thing that Cease needs to worry about a little bit is Benintendi. Benintendi hits him well, has seen him a good amount of… a couple of times here and has some good numbers against him. And he’s played well this year. So maybe watching for Benintendi. But yeah, I like Cease here. I agree with Mark.

TC Martin:

Yeah. It seems like a good spot for the White Sox to get on track and finally break that skid today against the Royals team. That is a little anemic offensively. So let’s lock Basewinner in for the Chicago White Sox. It’s going to lay 200 today hoping they break that slide. All right, next up guys got an afternoon affair in Basewinner’s and neck of the woods over there in Arizona over Chase Field. We got-

Mark Borchard:

There’s probably going to be about a thousand people there today.

TC Martin:

Well, Mark, I was going to say, I think it’s a perfect opportunity for you to run over there today. Go ahead and get your, whatever they call it, your diamond dog or diamond back dog and enjoy some baseball there today. I mean, like I said, a good seat is still available, my friend.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I think that’s what they do call it. So I think you’re dead on about that. It’s dback dog I think is what it’s-

TC Martin:

A dback. I will say this-

Mark Borchard:

I think that’s what it’s called.

TC Martin:

I will say very good food options there. And that’s most important to me when I’m going to a ball game, as you know, but good food choices there at Chase Field. All right. So the Dodgers $1.77 in favor today. Urias going today, Zack Gallen going for Arizona. The total in this game is eight. Guys, I was on Urias the last time out. I’m going to be on him again here today. Here’s the thing. We got a lot of familiarity with these two pitchers and these two teams here. Urias has faced Arizona nine times. Gallen’s faced the Dodgers seven times. But the big difference here is that there’s so many new and young Arizona Diamondback players that only Marte and Peralta have really seen Urias.

TC Martin:

And on the flip side of that, these Dodger veteran hitters they’ve seen Gallen before. He’s been somewhat uneven. He’s got some decent stuff here. but I think the Dodgers coming off of a loss yesterday, it’s rare that the Dodgers are going to lose two in a row. I’m one of these guys that when I especially get some decent value here, especially with a team on the road that has that big lineup the way they do, I’m going to ride the Dodgers until they win again. Kind of a hard luck loss last night but I think a advantageous position for the Dodgers. It’s getaway day. It’s a day game, like Mark mentioned. 992 people are going to be there, whatever it is today. I’ll take a shot with the Dodgers here today. I do like the Dodgers. Mark, you got some thoughts there and the game in your own backyard?

Mark Borchard:

Well, see I might take that back. There might be 5,000 people there but 4999 are going to be Dodger fans.

TC Martin:

[inaudible 00:12:55].

Mark Borchard:

So Dodger fans travel here dude. It’s like a home game for the Dodgers. And so, yeah, I do have some thoughts on it. And first of all, for the good for your play, the Basewinner crunch model likes the Dodgers at minus 217. So that indicates value on the Dodgers. We talked about the Dodgers’ offense being that much better than the next offense. And you think about really good offenses, Toronto and the Yankees, the Dodgers are about 8% better from a runs created plus standpoint. So that effectively means that they’re against an average team are going to score 0.35 more runs than the next two best teams in baseball, the Yankees and the Blue Jays. So that’s pretty amazing just kind of put it in that context.

Mark Borchard:

Bullpen. Dodger is second best by the three metric chart, the Diamondbacks are 28th. So all of those things are kind of making this line the Dodger’s mind 217. So you say, “Well, why Basewinner are you not going to play this?” And this is what’s concerning about Urias is first of all, you look at the stuff plus comparison. Gallen has had really good stuff this year, 82nd percentile versus Urias at 52nd percentile. But this is kind of what really is concerning about Urias. And it’s three starts and so maybe he’ll put that back together, but this guy was either one or two really last year as far as balls to pitches, the expected walk percentage. He was an elite guy in that particular metric. And he’s not elite right now.

Mark Borchard:

If you look at his expected walk percentage over the last three games, 12 percentile, 30 percentile, 38 percentile. Good news it’s going up, bad news it’s still below league average. So that’s a little concerning for me. And again, I mean, I’m trying to look for reasons this year to look at my model and be objective about the other factors that my model doesn’t factor for. And stuff plus is something that is not in the Basewinner crunch model. So it’s a pass for me. Having said that if I had to play it, I would play the Dodgers TC.

TC Martin:

Jeff.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. You would play the Dodgers if they played God and his disciples. I mean, you play them every day I feel like.

Mark Borchard:

I don’t know. If they played the Yankees it’d be an interesting… I’d love to see like an… Talk about a cool inter league matchup. But I guess that’s not going to happen this year.

Jeff Nadu:

Maybe World Series.

Mark Borchard:

Maybe at the World Series if I have my way. Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

But yeah, as far as this game I lean under. I mean, eight seemed a bit high to me. Look, I know the Dodgers’ lineup’s great. We all know that, but Gallen’s been pretty good and we’ve got to give him some credit. He’s been one of the guiding lights in this Diamondback group that’s not very good. Obviously you worry a little bit about the bullpen. But look, the Diamondbacks are going to hit today. I mean, you look at their team total, it’s three and a half and it’s minus 150. It’s conceivable they’re only going to score one or two runs, could get shut out. They have some of the worst numbers in the league against lefthanded pitchers. Both these starters are solid.

Jeff Nadu:

I kind of felt like this game was like 4-1, 5-2, something like that. I don’t love unders, but again, this year unders have been very profitable. I think the Diamondback’s offense sucks. It’s not a good position for them today. And I’m going to hope Gallen can give you five innings. I think if he can do that, this under is going to look pretty good.

TC Martin:

Yeah. All right. Diamondbacks dead last offensively in major league baseball. Okay. Lock me in there for the Dodgers. Will take the Dodgers here today at minus 177 on the road.

Jeff Nadu:

Can I comment on one of the chat comments that someone made. Someone mentioned that Citizens Bank Park, which is the Philly stadium has the best food in baseball. I think it’d be hard pressed whether wherever you’re from to disagree with that. The fact that they now have pizza, boardwalk pizza, is terrific. They’ve got the cheese steak spot. They’ve got sausage shrimp peppers, just a great situation to be in. So if you’re a baseball fan and I know Philly gets a bad rap, but the baseball stadium is terrific. It’s always a good time, always a great outing. And you’re going to get I think some of the best food in the entire league.

TC Martin:

Mark.

Jeff Nadu:

Is it just me? Yeah. All right. Let’s jump in. Looks like we have some issues here. Brewer is going to lay 170 to the Pirates here. A good NL central matchup, though the pirates, as we know, Mark, a bad group, bad team. We’ve had some issues with the Brewers this year. What are you seeing here? Because, look, I go back to that first game, Mark, of the season, you and I both lost on the damn Brewers. Are you going to side with Bob Uecker and the boys today? What do you got?

Mark Borchard:

The Brewers are somewhat frustrating, particularly when I bet on them. But they went out there and scored 12 runs last night, which might be more than they’ve scored all year. But as far as this… This is an exciting game for me because I get to see Aaron Ashby. I get to bet on him. I’m pretty high on him. Have him with a run suppression number of 87, meaning he’s going to suppress runs 13% better than the average pitcher. And then I get to see him pitch against Bryce Wilson. And Bryce Wilson is the 149th out of 150th pitcher in major league baseball by my ratings. And I’ve got this game priced at minus 219. And one of the things that’s encouraging about this play for me is when I go over to basewinner.com and I look at my Basewinner ERA, which takes into account strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and ground ball rate, Bryce Wilson, there’s 135 pitchers that have qualified this season. Bryce Wilson, number 135 in that Basewinner ERA, 7.92 Basewinner ERA.

Mark Borchard:

And what else is encouraging for me is we’re going to get Hader in the ninth if we need him. He pitched six pitches last night. We’ll get Williams. And the Brewers basically used their not as good pieces of their bullpen last night. So yeah, it’s concerning this Brewer’s offense particularly,… I don’t know. Sometimes you get those teams where you bet them and they can’t hit when you bet them. But if you look at the overall number that I have projected for this offense versus right-handed pitching, they’re 17th in baseball. So they’re capable of beating the 29th offense in baseball.

Mark Borchard:

I think the price minus 219 is good. And one stuff plus here, one last thing, Ashby is stuff plus so far this year, 85 percentile. Bryce Wilson, 13 percentile. I think this is a good opportunity just on a huge pitching disadvantage starting and relief.

TC Martin:

Well, definitely the Brewers got off the schneid with 12 runs yesterday. So we’ll see if they can continue that today. And like you said, against a Pirate lineup that is questionable at best. So, all right, good stuff with Basewinner. Lock him in for the Milwaukee Brewers. He’s going to take the brew crew on the road try to get it done again at minus 170. All right, next up guys. We’ve got the Miami Marlins and the Washington Nationals. My man Pablo Lopez. Yes. The recently married Pablo Lopez. You heard me talk about him last time, guys. I’m going to continue riding him and Pablo Lopez and the Marlins minus 143 at the Nats. Nats are plus 128. The total in this game is seven and a half, a slight lean towards the under there from a betting perspective at minus 125.

TC Martin:

Eric Fedde, a Las Vegas native, a guy that I know pretty well, it’s kind of funny guys because Fedde really is the opposite of Pablo Lopez. I mean, I think Lopez is a monster. This guy has got the best ERA in baseball at 0.52. He is a machine as I noted last week, 17 strikeouts, only three walks. And he did it against three pretty good offensive teams too, the Giants, the Phillies, and the Cardinals. And Fedde is just the opposite. He gave up six earn runs in only three innings versus Arizona. He’s given up 17 hits and three starts. And we know that the Washington pitching staff is dead last in ERA, in runs scored. They are next to last in WHIP. I mean, it is dreadful.

TC Martin:

But it seems like people are betting Fedde here because they see that his best outings in his past have come against the Marlins. So he’s actually 4-0 against the Marlins. But I’m going to ignore all that because I know what this guy’s all about. I love Pablo Lopez. He’s been on fire. Think he’s one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. So I like the Marlins. Jeff, what do you like?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I have no issue. I’m always a Marlin guy. I like Lopez. He’s been terrific. And Fedde sucks. So yeah, I agree with you. I will say though I think to me probably the play in this game that I would kind of maybe lean on, no run in the first inning. Fedde for what it’s worth is not good but he’s actually been pretty good in the first couple of innings. And he’s good against this lineup that he’s going to face here. So I just need three outs from Fedde. Obviously the Nats have one of the worst lineups in the major leagues. This isn’t a great Miami lineup either. But yeah, if you’re going to give me Lopez against a Fedde and I’m just going to bank on the lineups, I’ll take Miami any day of the week.

Jeff Nadu:

Nats could be the worst team in the entire major leagues. I mean, I know there’s some bad teams, but this is a bad team at all levels. So you talk about another place is not going to get many fans, Washington. Who the hell is watching this team right now? I know Dr. Fauci is not going to be there. I feel like he’s a bit of a front runner. He’s not going to be at the game. I know he’s a big fan, but I don’t think he’ll be at the game. I like the Marlins. I agree with you here.

TC Martin:

All right. And great food choices at Nats Park, guys. I can tell. They got a great Philly cheese steak believe it or not at Nats Park, one of my favorite venues there. But Basewinner, what do you got with this matchup?

Mark Borchard:

I’m with you TC as far as the Basewinner line. I have it priced at minus 180. So good value with Pablo Lopez. It’s hard not to like what he’s done so far this year. Two of his three starts have been in the 90th percentile. And then if you look at that three metric, which goes back to June 28th of last year, actually June 26th, sorry, Lopez four out of 195 pitchers and Fedde 176 out of 195 pitchers. So I think we get a significant pitching advantage here with Miami.

Mark Borchard:

Offensively, I like the Nationals a little bit better than the Marlins. The one thing that kind of kept me off this, this is probably the only thing, is Lopez’s stuff plus, 37 percentile. That’s concerning. Having said that, Fedde’s stuff plus is in the six percentile. To me, I’m looking to kind of like be a little bit more focused with my plays this season. But this one, this one definitely has a lot of line value on Miami. So I love your guys’ handicap on this and I’ll route this play in for you with the Marlins.

TC Martin:

One thing that does scare me a little bit when you go against a team that’s lost six on a row, I kind of buy into a little bit of the do theory. But when you look at how bad the Nats’ pitching is and offensively how bad they are and everything, and again, Miami’s not a great team, you just figure, okay, eventually the Nats are going to eventually break this streak. I just hope it’s not day. But again, I want to rely on my handicapping and that is Pablo Lopez. That is the main reason why I’m playing this game. And Lopez has been fantastic. In the past, the Nats have actually hit okay against Lopez. But let’s be honest guys, this is not the same Nationals team as last year or even the year before, as we know, not even close. I mean, you got Juan Soto and basically that’s about it.

TC Martin:

So again, kind of nervous just like that White Sox game. Base, when you’re going with the White Sox today and they’ve lost eight in a row, Nats, they’ve lost six in a row. They’re probably worse than the White Sox, but just something in my psyche says, “I hate to go against a team like that,” but today I’m going to do it just because I think it’s advantageous for Pablo Lopez. So you can lock me in for the Miami Marlins today at minus 143 on the road with the recently married Pablo Lopez. All right. Remember, you can hit us with a question and answers. Will be hitting out a little bit later on in the show here. So hit us up in the chatroom-

Mark Borchard:

I got a question for you TC.

TC Martin:

… if you got any questions. And we’ll start the question answer off with Basewinner [inaudible 00:25:30].

Mark Borchard:

Well, I’m wondering, if Pablo Lopez, the MLB pitcher at his wedding had Pablo Lopez the Spanish singer in as one of the songs that were played during his wedding. That’s-

TC Martin:

Very nice.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. That’s pressing for me.

TC Martin:

That’s a great point. Now, if Pablo is entrenched into the music industry, he would reach out for that. You think that’d be an automatic, right?

Mark Borchard:

I think as baseball handicapper I think it’s imperative for me to listen to one Pablo Lopez Spanish singer song so that I know what I’m talking about. But I just know that he’s a popular Spanish singer. That’s what I know.

TC Martin:

We won’t ask you to go ahead and sing that. And then Jeff looked up the photos of the wedding. Jeff said, it looked like a pretty nice wedding. I mean-

Mark Borchard:

That’s great.

TC Martin:

Maybe he shed out some money and got the other Pablo Lopez there. I don’t know.

Mark Borchard:

Live. Yeah.

TC Martin:

There you go. Houston in Texas today, Christian Javier is taking the hill as Dusty Baker said, hey, you know what? We’re going to go six man rotation here kind of preserve the bullpen and get our starters a little bit more rest here. Going against Texas. Glen Otto, going for the Rangers. The Astros’ $1.15 favorite total here, eight and a half on this game. Javier is solid guys. And he’s very versatile too. Javier’s been in these type of positions before where he can come and start a game. He can come out of the bullpen. Dusty’s got a lot of faith in him. And on the flip side, you’ve got Glen Otto. You’ve got Otto the garbage man here. He’s a Houston native he’s. He got his first career start I remember this last year, because he’s a Houston native and he got his first start against the Astros last August. And it was a pretty good feel good story.

TC Martin:

The guy went five innings. He had seven strikeouts, didn’t give up earned run. Astros never saw him before. It was like, “Okay, maybe there’s something to this guy.” Astros saw him two weeks later, got lit up like a Christmas tree. Seven earned runs, seven hits. He walked four batters, only lasted three innings. He got called up for the miners last week to make a start. So he is back at it again now. Myself, I think it a good spot for the Astros to actually start getting on a little win streak here, make it two in a row today. I like Javier. I don’t like Otto the garbage man. I’m going to take the Astros. Basewinner, some thoughts?

Mark Borchard:

Those are harsh words on Glen Otto Jr. I would not call him a garbage man. I think-

TC Martin:

Well again, if anybody knows I like movie references, some TV and some music references, that is a movie reference. And I’ll test you guys’ knowledge. That’s a Pulp Fiction reference. Anybody see Pulp Fiction knows what I’m talking about?

Mark Borchard:

I have seen. It’s-

TC Martin:

I mean, Jeff, that’s got to be your kind of movie like me.

Jeff Nadu:

Of course. Sure.

Mark Borchard:

I have watched bits of Pulp Fiction. I used to work with a guy. His name was Brad and there was some kind of quote in that movie, you got a big brain-

TC Martin:

Hey, the big brains on Brad.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, exactly. And so people used to… When he lost games people used to say, “Oh look at the big brains on Brad.” He did some college basketball for us.

TC Martin:

And as we know, anybody that knows Pulp Fiction, there were many mistakes in that movie. And Samuel Jackson in the same scene on one scene, he called him Brett. And then he called him Brad. And that was also the same scene where the bullet holes were already in the wall before they shot up the place. So remember that. So a little Pulp Fiction trivia that I can give you guys. And just so everyone else knows, Otto the garbage man when they were getting cleaned up after they cleaned up the car of all the brain and skull and all that kind of stuff, Samuel Jackson, Jules Winnfields said to Quentin Tarantino, to Jimmy, he says, “Hey, don’t leave these bloody clothes here for Otto the garbage man.” There you go.

Mark Borchard:

Oh, I see. Okay. So it’s not necessarily about his talent. You’re kind of using Pulp Fiction as a reference for his last name.

TC Martin:

That is true. But I do equate it to garbage man, because the guy gave up seven earned runs in three innings the last time he faced the Astros. He’s not a very good pitcher.

Mark Borchard:

So I’m a little bit higher. I’m a lot higher than you are in Glen Otto Jr. I actually have him at 100, which is league average. So not that high. Javier is in it 91. There’s not as much in difference in these offenses than you would think. I have the Astros 11% better than average versus right-handed pitching. The Ranger’s offense, not too terrible though. I mean, they’re 10th as ball versus right-handed pitching based on the individuals that comprise the lineup.

Mark Borchard:

The model has it priced at minus 102. So I’m going to pass on it. I don’t think it’s a bad play. It’s just a play that I’m not going to make. One of the things if you talk about stuff plus, Javier in his relief appearances has been really good. 81st percentile stuff plus. Otto has not been bad either. He’s a 65 percentile stuff plus. His first start of 2022 by the three metrics is a 61 percentile. So I kind of think he’s maybe a little bit better than average. I would not put him in garbage man status, but I wish you luck on this play. I’m going to pass on it.

TC Martin:

I think that’s one of the reasons why it’s only 115 too. A lot of people maybe not be familiar with Javier. Think of him, he’s more of a reliever, but he does have good stuff. And then Otto again, maybe those numbers bear out a little bit in Texas as at home. So to me, there’s some value here with the Astros. Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I’m going the other way. I’m going to take Texas. And it’s funny that you mentioned his last time out against the Astros. You didn’t mention though his first outing against the Astros last year where he absolutely dominated them.

TC Martin:

I did.

Jeff Nadu:

Over five inning.

TC Martin:

[crosstalk 00:31:08] I did. I did mention that where he basically threw the shout out. Those are the numbers I gave you first.

Jeff Nadu:

And remember TC, he also pitched in, I think you alluded to this, he pitched last week. He was very good. And oh, look, Oakland’s not a great lineup as we know, but listen, I got a real… I’m not going to say I don’t like the Astros but, I mean, this team’s not been very good. I mean, can we just be honest? I mean, Altuve’s been out, kind of the table setter. They’re not really scoring runs. And as Mark alluded to, it’s a pretty good Texas offense. I mean, they have some kids that can hit the baseball. They’ve got some big boppers. I’m going to take a shot here. I think a lot of people are just going to play Houston because they’re Houston. But the truth is, I mean, they’ve not been good offensively.I mean, I don’t think it’s a major advantage in the pitching matchup. I don’t love their bullpen either.

Jeff Nadu:

Look, anytime you back, Texas, it could be a mess in the late innings. But I agree with Mark. I don’t hate Glen Otto. I think he’s actually all right. Look, we all have bad outings every day. Glen’s entitled to one occasionally. I think he’s a good young pitcher. I don’t think he’s McKenzie Gore or anything. So yeah, I’m going to go the other way here. I don’t usually fade TC. Him and I kind of have the same thoughts on things, but at a little plus price, I think Texas is just decent. And I don’t think Houston’s as good as I think we maybe think they are right now.

TC Martin:

Well, here’s the deal. The reason why the Astros were struggling is because Alvarez was starting off and Tucker was just horrendous. Well, Tucker has been on fire. I mean, Tucker’s got six hits and a couple homers in his last three games. And he started off very, very slow last year, identical. So the Astros bats are starting to come alive. Altuve at the top of the order not be in there. He’ll be back this weekend against Toronto. That’s a big void. You’re right about that, Jeff. And again, they haven’t been able really to find a lead off hitter. Probably McCormack has been their best lead off here, but they’ve been rotating. But Bregman’s pretty solid. Alvarez is getting it going now. Gurriel is hitting the ball. And like I said, Tucker is the real key for them.

TC Martin:

So again, I’m kind of banking that the Astros are going to start putting it in gear. And I saw some signs of that over the last three days. So anyway, like I said, wouldn’t surprise me if they lose here, but they’re going to start putting some wins together. And they’ve really had a two game win streak. So today I’m thinking, okay, it’s good timing. We’ll see how it works out. And as you mentioned, Mark, with the Dodgers and the Diamondbacks, same thing happens in whatever, Globe Life Field. There’s more Astros fans there than Ranger fans. So it’s almost kind of like a glorified home game for [inaudible 00:33:44].

Jeff Nadu:

He, I’m going to say one thing. I’ve been known over the years to bash the people and I’m not bashing anyone here. Please I’m not. But when-

TC Martin:

I think we lost… [crosstalk 00:33:59] say that again.

Jeff Nadu:

Until the playoffs stadiums mean absolute goths to these games. None. Zero. Does it matter? These stadiums are too big. Do you agree with that guys? I’m sorry, I-

Mark Borchard:

I think to an extent I agree with what you’re saying from a home field advantage in certain parks. Now certain parks are lively. Where I would disagree with you is I think the home field is very important from a characteristics of hitter standpoint. In fact, a lot of these GMs, they bring players in based on the characteristics of their home park. So from that standpoint, I think the home park’s very valuable from the characteristics of the hitting standpoint. But I think that what you were trying, and correct me if I’m wrong, what you’re trying to say is the atmosphere, the playoff type atmosphere. And you don’t get that. Maybe you would on a Sunday night. And so I would agree with you as far as that goes, Jeff.

TC Martin:

Yeah. I agree with you too as well too. I have no problem betting visiting teams or whatever. Probably the only thing you got to worry about is that guys in these cities are staying out too late and a little bit hungover the next day. I mean, that’s a legitimate factor.

Jeff Nadu:

Right. But I’ll hear people say like in the NBA in a regular season game, they’ll be like, “Oh, well, Lakers are going to struggle. They’re on the roads. There’s going to be a lot of fans.” Do you really think LeBron James cares?

TC Martin:

These guys are pros. You’re right.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, what are we talking?

TC Martin:

All right. Lock me in with the Astros. We’ll take the Houston Astros at minus 115. All right. Final game of the docket, the last one of the night, the As and the Giants. Again, the Bay Area rivals are going to go at it. Paul Blackburn for the As and Sam Long back on the hill. This will be an opener situation. Here we go again. Gabe Kapler’s fallen into the Kevin Cash scenario again. Actually worked, I guess, for the giants last time they did this with Milwaukee a couple days ago. But they’re kind of lucky to come from behind a win that game. The Giants $1.65 favorite. If you like the As, a plus 145. Low total here of seven and a half in this game. Basewinner, you’re on this game. Who do you like and why?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. Well, I’m going to play the Giants and the Angels in a parlay, but we’ll talk specifically about the Oakland San Francisco matchup. And I’m not sold on Paul Blackburn. 128th out of 150 pitchers by my ratings. I’ve got the game priced at minus 198. This Oakland offense we went man by man two shows ago over the Oakland offense. And it was pretty depressing I think if you’re an Oakland fan. But one of the things about Blackburn is if you take a look… And maybe some people are encouraged that he’s been close to league average his three starts this year. He had a 52 percentile his first time out, 61 percentile, and then a 15 percentile. But to me, that’s at best league average. From a median standpoint, from a average standpoint, it’s below league average.

Mark Borchard:

And if you take a look at what he did last year by that three metric chart, one 91st out of one 95th. So that’s the main reason the offense is terrible. I think the starting pitcher is terrible. I don’t have much faith in the relief as well. So outside of that, Oakland’s great. But I’m going to have San Francisco be the first leg of that parley. Going to tie it in with the Angels. I’m high on Shohei. Shohei Ohtani, 99 percentile from a stuff plus standpoint. I might even have him ranked a little bit on the downside. I have him 24th out of 150 pitchers. There’s so much to like about his pitch mix, the way that he mixes stuff up to people.

Mark Borchard:

And I think that offensively in this Angels game, I think that people might be taking a look at what Cleveland’s done so far this season rather than the long term projections. But long term, I’ve got the angels at fifth in baseball versus right-handed pitching in Cleveland at 23rd in baseball. So you throw all that in the mixture, we’re getting decent value, minus 218 on the Basewinner line. But I love that stuff plus number for Ohtani versus a 34% stuff plus number for Plesac. I think this is a good parlay. I think this is a good opportunity to get plus 140. Angels, Giants, lay the wood late at night on the west coast.

TC Martin:

Basewinner parlay turn around and getting us a plus money there. Jeff, what do you think?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, the absurdity of analytics and Mark Borchard. He’ll try to justify how Paul Blackburn’s not a good pitcher, even though in three outings and 15 innings he’s been very good. And then I’ll try to then say that Sam Long, who’s a reliever who has like three innings under his belt, is a great pitcher. Well, give some respect to Blackburn, Mark. I mean, come on, man. I mean, we’ve got [crosstalk 00:38:56]-

Mark Borchard:

I can’t. I just can’t. I mean, I’m looking at an 11% stuff plus number.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, but I’m looking at what-

Mark Borchard:

The guy’s mediocre. So those are the numbers that the guy can control.

Jeff Nadu:

Listen, Mark, you can try to tell me it’s not sunny up, but when I look out and the sun shining it’s sunny. Blackburn has been good. I know we can throw out 6,000 different scientific metrics. Look, so far he’s been good. You can’t tell me though that… You don’t know anything. Long’s been… he’s a reliever, Mark. I mean, come on.

Mark Borchard:

So I can tell you that stuff plus… the Long Junis combination is right at league average. So I’ve got him suppressing runs 7% better than average. Those are my numbers. That’s why I like this game. And I mean, I think we have a pretty decent pitching advantage in my opinion. But that’s why they play the game. That’s why we can bet it.

Jeff Nadu:

No, ultimately you’re right. And here’s the thing, when it comes to Oakland’s lineup, the problem that I have here is, and we experienced this last week, we were lucky TC and I that they were playing Baltimore and they would’ve scratched I think six runs out. But ultimately out and expect them to score runs. And that’s why I wouldn’t bet Oakland here. But I think Paul Blackburn, I think he’s one… He can be one of these guys that kind of shows all the analytic people, “Hey, just because I’m not good analytically doesn’t mean I’m not good. “We’ve had a couple of those over the last couple of years. Oakland seems to always have them too. They had a guy a couple years ago that was off the scrap but he came in and pitched very for them. But yeah, I don’t have a problem with the play just because it’s the Oakland Athletics and they can’t hit, but I think Blackburn’s better than people give them credit for.

TC Martin:

All right. So I’m going to jump in here guys. Thank you, Jeff, for the voice of reason here, because I’m going to do what you guys do sometimes. I’m going to add a play here [crosstalk 00:40:34]. I’m going on the As.

Jeff Nadu:

Come on.

TC Martin:

I had the As last night. And you know I was on Blackburn before. You know how I feel about Sam Long. I told you guys about Sam Long. He’s from my hometown. He’s my Alma mater. He’s Sac State. He’s terrible. He’s the worst pitcher on the Giant staff. Oh, let’s do the opener. I’m never going to back an opener, ever. He’s going to go one inning. It worked out for the miraculously against the Brewers, and the Brewer are a hard luck loser when it happened last week. No Sam Long today, I’m going with that. I would be remissed if I did not do this. So I’ve got to add the Oakland As at plus money today. This Giant win streak it’s coming to an end. No Sam Longs for me.

Jeff Nadu:

Big price here, plus 150. I mean, listen, Mark again, this is the oddity of I think some of the comments occasionally is it doesn’t use common sense I think sometimes, I mean, he’s a reliever, Mark. You do know that, right? He’s glorified [inaudible 00:41:30].

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I use-

Jeff Nadu:

And not a good one.

Mark Borchard:

I use numbers. I use pitch movement. I use walk suppression, strikeouts. I use a lot of numbers that-

Jeff Nadu:

Mark, but so do meteorologists. Meteorologists use the same scientific things and they’ll tell me it’s going to snow six inches. And the next day come out and there’s not one snowflake on the ground.

Mark Borchard:

And just because that long term that those numbers correlate doesn’t mean that they’re going to correlate every day. So that’s why you can’t win them all basically. But I think you could put yourself in a really good position to win by using some of those numbers that I use. And that’s why I use them, Jeff.

Jeff Nadu:

I hear you. Yeah, I’m only being the voice of reason. Hey, shout out to Paul Blackburn, Mark. Give him some credit.

TC Martin:

That’s right [crosstalk 00:42:12]-

Mark Borchard:

Well, let’s see how this guy did this… I mean, you guys both like Paul Blackburn-

TC Martin:

[crosstalk 00:42:16] he’s kept.

Mark Borchard:

[crosstalk 00:42:16] not so much. So let’s see what happens. That and Kyle Wright. Kyle Wright’s interesting. But that’s what makes the game so fun to watch, and especially when one guy thinks one way and the other guy thinks the other way. And I think that makes the game that much more exciting as a fan, as a [inaudible 00:42:32].

TC Martin:

We got a little rooting interest with this, Mark and I on this game here tonight. So lock Basewinner for his two team parlay. See if he can go back to back days hitting the parlay with the Giants and the Angels. And I’m taking the As at plus money with Paul Blackburn and going against Sam Long. Never bet on an opener that you know is only going to go one inning, Basewinner. There you go.

Mark Borchard:

Well, let’s see Blackbomb pitches tonight.

TC Martin:

Okay. We got Otto the garbage man and Blackbomb. I like that today. There we go. All right. Let’s go to questions.

Mark Borchard:

[crosstalk 00:43:08].

TC Martin:

Paul’s got a question regarding Fedde with Nats today, over 15 and a half outs at minus 115. Do you guys have an opinion on under on Fedde outs?

Jeff Nadu:

So I’m basically banking on the fact that Fedde will go deep into the game or deeper into the game.

TC Martin:

I guess. I mean, you’re going to have to have him go past the fifth.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I don’t really really play those props. I don’t play many props in baseball to be purely honest. I kind of just do it very rudimentary. So I don’t have much on that one. I don’t think though. No, I wouldn’t imagine he goes very deep.

TC Martin:

Basewinner, quick thoughts.

Mark Borchard:

I think you have to model that separately. It’s something that I definitely have not done at least yet. But I think if I had to do it, I’d go over. Sorry about that. I got to turn this darn thing off. I would-

TC Martin:

I think he’s probably right on the number, guys. I mean, I’m thinking Fedde, could last five, but you’re asking him to get into the six inning with this and he rarely goes six. And he’s only been seven innings twice or once in his entire career. And I think six he’s been like three times, three or four times. So I don’t know if I want any part of that. Let’s go over to JJs question here. It’s talking about the Reds. Should we bet against the Reds, I mean basically every day? Are we into that mode right now? Basewinner?

Mark Borchard:

Oh, they’ve been really bad. This particular matchup, you’re not that high a McKenzie Gore. So I don’t know. I have it priced at minus 133 for the Padres. It would indicate value on the Reds. It’s really hard to like this Reds team. I mean, the way the runs create a plus is 58, xFIP 120, defensive runs saved they’re minus 10 on defensive runs saved. So all facets of the game they’ve been bad. And I can’t back the play, even though I think the model would show a little bit of value based on the pitching matchup. But I’d stay away from this team.

TC Martin:

Yeah. All right. One more quick question here. The under, we talked about the Giants and the As. Jeff, what do you think about maybe an under bet or maybe an over bet in this game at all?

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, I didn’t play it. If I had to play it, I’d lean under seven. I mean, I mentioned I like Blackburn. I don’t know. Maybe you get Long to kind of keep this low scoring. And I don’t love the Oakland lineup, as I said. I don’t have much on it though. I feel like for me, and I’ll just be honest with Q and As, I kind of put my opinions out there in the games that we discuss. But the only ones I really have much opinion on are the ones that I submit. So yeah, I don’t have much there.

TC Martin:

Okay. And Mark’s asking about Ohtani. I think we already talked about Ohtani. Mark, you really like Ohtani, especially in this situation here.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I’m high on him. He’s third best in baseball from a stuff plus standpoint behind… I think he’s a best starter. Last time out he threw a 99 percentile. I mean, yeah. The one concerning thing about Ohtani is his command of the pitches. So that’s one thing that you have to think about. But gosh, his stuff is just so good. I mean, it’s the best starting pitching stuff in baseball. So yeah, I’m high on Ohtani right now.

TC Martin:

You’re bullish on Ohtani.

Mark Borchard:

Bullish. Exactly.

TC Martin:

There you go.

Mark Borchard:

Big bull.

TC Martin:

Right. All right. I appreciate everybody with their questions. And remember, make sure you like and subscribe to the show and the channel. Hit that bell, and then you’ll get all the notifications when we go live. And remember, we’re here every weekday at 12 noon Eastern time here, the MLB show on BetUS TV. All right. So let’s recap. And Jeff made a good point too that we handicapped seven games here today. That was a lot. And those are the games that we kind of feel good about. So if we’re not touching on a game… and we encourage the questions. Don’t get me wrong with that. But our thoughts are pretty much on the games that we’re backing here. And I think that for the most part, the games that we’re not talking about, we probably don’t have a strong opinion either or. But again, appreciate the questions as always from all of our viewers out there.

TC Martin:

All right, Jeff’s going with the Mets today at minus 123. Basewinner likes the Sox laying 200 against the Royals, hoping to snap that eight game slide. The Brew Crew in Pittsburgh today, Milwaukee minus 170. Basewinner is on that as well. And he’s going with the two team par par. That’s right. It’s going to get him back approximately plus 140 with the Giants and the Angels. Myself, I got the Dodgers laying it with Urias in Arizona today. I like Pablo Lopez back in Nats Park, minus 143 for the Marlins. And taking a shot with Houston thinking that they get a little win streak together here at minus 114.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m going to-

TC Martin:

And also I’m taking the As as well too, taking the As plus 155 against [inaudible 00:48:10].

Jeff Nadu:

I’m going to-

Mark Borchard:

Just to be different. Just to be different.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m going to add Texas as well. I put that on the sheet. Texas plus 105. Texas.

TC Martin:

And there’s Jeff. Yeah, he’s going to go-

Jeff Nadu:

[inaudible 00:48:18].

TC Martin:

… with the Rangers, go against me on that one. So there we go. So we’ve got a couple of friendly rivalries amongst us all here today. So that’ll be fun. All right. All right. Guys, good stuff. Appreciate it as always. We’ll be back at it again tomorrow at 12 noon Eastern time. Jeff, have yourself a good day, my friend.

Jeff Nadu:

You too.

TC Martin:

Enjoy the day. And Basewinner, get over to Chase Field. Get over there. Have a Diamond back dog.

Mark Borchard:

I’m going to fly out to At&T… No, it’s Oracle stadium, just to watch Blackburn pitch because he is so good.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Just bundle up. Might be a little chilly tonight.

Mark Borchard:

Wow.

TC Martin:

There you go. All right. We appreciate everybody joining us. We reconvene tomorrow at 12 noon Eastern time. TC Martin saying so long for Basewinner and Jeff Nadu. We’ll catch you tomorrow right here on the MLB show here on BetUS TV, America’s favorite sportsbook.

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