X
Skip to content

MLB Show

Scott Spreitzer:

Hey, how’s it going, everybody? Scott Spreitzer here filling in for the vacationing TC Martin, who will be back this coming Monday. He’s Mark “BaseWinner” Borchard and we are BetUS TV talking four major league baseball games on Wednesday’s card, Mark and I, and all from a betting perspective. And of course, the trade deadline is finally behind us. We’ve been talking about what’s going to happen the last couple of days. Now we know what did happen and want to jump into that from a betting perspective too, for a couple of minutes before we get into Wednesday’s card. It’s funny, Mark, when you watch this incredible trade that we saw take place involving San Diego and Washington. Juan Soto, of course, the prize arriving in San Diego. Josh Bell, not a bad rental but maybe the biggest in season baseball trade of all time. They’re going to get Soto for a couple of years.

Soto’s 23 years old, and I happened to catch this yesterday. He has a career OPS+ at age of 23 of 159. There are only five players in the history of Major League Baseball who had a higher OPS+ through their age 23 season. Those five players, Ty Cobb, Albert Pujols, Stan Musial, Mike Trout, and Ted Williams. What a list that Juan Soto is falling into, and I’m telling you right now, the betting perspective is this. The Pads were 9:1 to win the National League before the trade.

They were adjusted basically to +475, around there in most shops. The World Series odds were 20:1, Mark. They’re now 10:1. You saw Soto’s MVP odds improve, now 30:1. Current odds to win the National League as we speak in a few of the shops, Dodgers +160, the Mets +300. Padres are now third, +475. Braves +550 and the Brewers and the Cardinals 15 and 18:1 respectively. I just got to ask you, do the Padres do enough? All they did, did they do enough to tempt you to plunk your money down on this team to win the National League or even the World Series?

Mark Borchard:

I think it’s so hard to figure out. I mean, obviously that offense goes from probably middle of the pack to arguably the best, but definitely top three in baseball. So, I think from an offensive standpoint, they certainly have it. Now, there’s two sides to the game though, and they bolstered their bullpen with Hader and I think that Luis Garcia, not Luis Garcia that pitches for Houston … the Luis Garcia that pitches for San Diego, he’s really good too. But I don’t know if they have the … Manaea has really struggled in his last few outings. I’ve never been huge on Musgrove. I think he’s a good pitcher. I don’t necessarily know if you could classify him as an ace. But here’s my thought on the playoffs and postseason baseball, and what you need to look for are these bullpens. I mean, the bullpens are so important in these close games and we saw it last night in New York.

And, I’ve been lauding the Seattle bullpen, and I don’t know, some people thought it was a scandalous opinion, but if you look at their numbers, they’re just tremendous and a team like that, to me, I think that it starts with the bullpen in postseason baseball. Because good pitching beats good hitting, and it’s true. But, you throw the Padres into the mix, they’re not going to win the division. They’re just too far back, in my opinion, Scott. So then, the way thing shapes up, the playoffs, if you’re playing an extra round so your probabilities are going from … even if you’re just 50% on each one, you’ve got to go 50%, then .50 times .50, then .50 times .50 times .50. So, I don’t know. I don’t know if that was the right thing to do. But, maybe they’ll bolster it with some pitching in the off season.

To me, I think you look Braves here. I think that that’s the team with the best bullpen, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, and as I mentioned they’re +550 or thereabouts, depending on where you shop. I was glad to see San Diego go for it, though, go all in so to speak for this organization and for organizations that have been the Padres organization over the years. To me, I’ve been to a ton of ballparks, Mark, around the country and there’s no better place to go to a game, to me, than Petco of the 15 to 20 ballparks that I’ve been to. And that’s because right down the street is the Gaslamp district, and you can sit there, you can have a couple of the cold ones. You can be a people watcher. All the little clubs, cigar shop, there’s a great cigar shop down there in the Gaslamp district. And then you could just walk from there to Petco. Tremendous stadium. Waiters and waitresses coming up and down the aisles, asking what you want. You fill out a menu, you get your food delivered to you.

It’s an incredible experience. They were the first ballpark to do that. But what they never had was an organization that really went out to win, and so for the people of what I like to call, and a lot of people like to call, America’s finest city, the people are finally getting, the fans, a chance to see an organization that wants to win led by a good manager in Bob Melvin. And even if they were going to go over the luxury tax, it didn’t bother me, man. It’s the Padres and I was just, Mark, glad to see that they were going all in to try to finally win something.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. No, it’s good that they’re going to try to do it with the Dodgers, because the Dodgers are so good and they have such deep pockets. Look, they’re going to have a tremendous offense, don’t get me wrong, and it’ll be exciting. I feel bad, Scott, for Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies. Not the best for these guys. That’s going to be tough. But for me personally, from a selfish standpoint, I’m going to go check out those Padres. I like Josh Bell, too. He’s got good ratings, as well. So he was lost in there. They did some good things, Scott, so good for San Diego.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah. You got a shot for Bell maybe to hit 24, 25 dingers on the season. He can drive in some runs. He’s a good rental for the rest of the season. I did like that addition to that trade.

Mark Borchard:

Do you know offhand, and I hate to put you on the spot, do you know offhand from a contractual situation they have with Soto, are they going to have him for the next two years? Is that how it works?

Scott Spreitzer:

All I know for sure is it’s through next year for sure, potentially through 2024. Obviously, Bell’s a rental, but as far as Soto, that looks like it’s at least next year … well, almost for sure next year … then into 2024. I think they had to do it. I think you got to go for it. I do like the Cardinal way. The Washington Nationals wanted their young stud out in center field, and the Cardinals said, “No, we’re not going to do it.” And that’s the difference, though. The Cardinals are an organization that has won a whole lot of World Series, second to the Yankees, and they’ve been there and they’ve done that. And, they’ve got a very baseball educated fan base. I know a lot of people outside of St Louis like to say they’re as arrogant as it gets, but very educated fan base. And, you’re not going to trade away seven or eight years of winning and challenging for a division win to win one World Series or maybe two sometime, one World Series over a two year period. The Padres have done that. We’ll see though. Again-

Mark Borchard:

I guess maybe they haven’t though. If it’s only going to be a one year thing, I don’t know. The prospect stuff, it’s like, “Yeah, these guys look good on paper, but they’ve got to play it out.” How many prospects have looked great on paper and they’ve like, “Oh, they’re trading away their organization,” but the guys never pan out in the organization they trade away to. For me, I don’t know, I don’t necessarily think they’re mortgaging their whole organization.

Now, maybe you could say that if they’re paying a long term, multi-year contract and it’s going to put them in a bad spot where they can’t get anybody else, but from what I understand, Scott, from what you’re telling me, they’re not in that situation right now.

Scott Spreitzer:

Excellent points. We’ve got four games to talk about, all from of a better perspective, a couple of best bets that we’re going to look at on today’s show, but real quick review of yesterday’s best bets, Mark. I know you split. You had Cleveland, which was the loss. You had Seattle plus a run and a half, which was the win. Your thoughts on those two games.

Mark Borchard:

Well, I thought that that Cleveland game was interesting because McKinsey started off and he just couldn’t get into a rhythm in the first inning, and then he retired 10 straight guys, which he was amazing. And then, he had a couple … You hate to make excuses when you lose a game, but a couple crappy hits that probably shouldn’t have been hits. But, the Arizona bullpen, as bad as they are on paper, they had a good game and that’s going to happen. But Seattle, gosh, I was really impressed with the bullpen comes in in the sixth inning and doesn’t allow a run. And, that’s what you want to see when you’re backing a team. So, I was impressed with that Seattle team. Those were my thoughts on those games, the bullpens.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, I had one play yesterday, or one best bet, and it was Milwaukee with Corbin Burnes on the run line. I was feeling pretty good at 3-0 because you get three runs, for Corbin Burnes this year, you’re likely going to win that game. I saw something out of Corbin Burnes I haven’t seen this entire season after they were up 3-0. He actually lost the strike zone. He couldn’t find it out of the blue. It was one pitch he’s striking guys out and the next pitch, all of a sudden he just couldn’t locate the strike zone. It was a simple as that. It happens from time to time. You don’t expect it out of Corbin Burnes.

And then the Pirates of all teams were able to … I think they got three or four runs in that particular inning and went on to get the win outright, not just cover that one and a half. So, a little surprise there out of Corbin Burnes. You certainly don’t predict a guy like him and say, “Oh, all of a sudden he’s due for a bad outing,” especially when he got off to a good start, Mark.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, that’s a weird deal because you look at that game and you’re thinking there’s no way there’s … The Pirates team was anemic coming into that game, so the fact that they were able to beat Milwaukee there was really surprising. But isn’t that the worst, Scott, when you’re betting a guy and he just loses it? And you can see it when you’re watching the game, and it’s just the utmost feel it in your stomach almost like, “Oh God, this guy.” And you know what’s going to be aggravating, and this is somewhat aggravating about betting baseball is you’ll see Burnes come out and just light it up the next three or four starts, and he’ll be untouchable. And you’ll be like, “Where was that when I backed him?” Anyway, that happens in baseball, Scott?

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, I’m not going to get caught up in okay, Burnes is all of a sudden washed up for the rest of the season. I’m going against him. I won’t be going against him any time soon because he probably will. A lot of really good pitchers, acers, who have one weird outing usually come back and get it together and there’s an extra bit of motivation to get them going for that next start. It was an odd situation that I had a buddy of mine, another better here in town who was on Milwaukee and on the run line and he texts me and he goes, “I had to turn the game off.” I was disgusted and watching another game, then I get a text that says, “Here come the Brewers,” and I flip it back on, bases loaded, one out. I’m like, “All right. We get a couple of runs here, we can still come from behind here. It’s early enough to get the run line win,” and nothing happened. They left all three runners, didn’t get the tying or the go ahead run, or any run for that matter. They went on to lose.

But, it happens. We were going for the three game best bet win streak, and it did not get there. We’ll look to bounce back today, and both of us get right back in the win column. Let’s kick things off-

Mark Borchard:

Scott, I’m sorry to jump in but I wanted to mention Vin Scully’s passing because I don’t think that it would be a baseball show if we didn’t say something about Vin Scully on today’s show. And, I’ll just be real quick about it, and how amazing he was growing up in southern California, having the privilege to listen to Vin Scully as a child and young adult. And, just how wonderful he called the game, and I thought that was normal until I started going around the world and listening to other broadcasts and then you just really appreciate how lucky you were to be able to listen to him for so many years. And, he was so good and told so many good stories, and I think what was interesting for me is his last year, 2016, he was 88 years old and I listened to a lot of baseball, Scott, on the radio.

And if I had to pick a guy to call the game for me, it would’ve been Vin Scully at 88 years old, and that’s how good he was for so long. So, it’s a little piece of my childhood that I’m remembering today, and in a good way because so many good memories and so many good calls. The ’88 World Series call. He was just so awesome and he let the crowd tell the story. So very, very sad in a way to see Vin pass, but in a way it brings back a lot of really good memories and an appreciation for probably the best broadcaster. And, I know it’s a big thing to say, but probably the best broadcaster that I’ll ever listen to, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, I’m glad you brought it up. I have a little something at the end of the show that I wanted to share, which was the greatest quote I think I’ve ever heard when it comes to your best attempt at finding success, and it was Vin Scully who said it of all people that you could have got it from was a sports broadcaster. But he was so far beyond that. We just saw Mark Holmes with the RIP Vin Scully. And yeah, you’re right. I certainly have my stories about Vin Scully real quick, and I’m going to save that quote for the end of the show.

Mark Borchard:

Well, that’s fine. I just wanted to make sure that we didn’t neglect talking about that.

Scott Spreitzer:

Absolutely.

Mark Borchard:

Because he’s so iconic in baseball, and so iconic for me in my life too, and I wanted to share that, how much he touched me and really drove me to one of the reasons I went into handicapping and I enjoy the sport so much is because I loved listening to him call the game, and I just fell in love with baseball. And, I think he’s one of the reasons, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

Oh, yeah. And I’m glad you brought it up, and I’ll say real quickly that the ’88 home run, Kirk Gibson home run, I was actually in studio working my very first radio gig when that happened. I was 20 years old, and I was in studio with another host and we were talking games and that was on in the background. We always had an old little TV that was in the studio with us. We’re talking ’88. There were no 55, 65 inch flat screens. And we just hauled in a little TV every night, and watching Gibson hit that. And then, of course, it’s great that you can go back and I think you could watch that entire game by looking it up-

Mark Borchard:

It’s awesome. The call, his voice and the way he called the at bat just gives you chills every time you watch it really.

Scott Spreitzer:

And by the way, guess who called the catch? San Francisco/Dallas? It was Vin Scully.

Mark Borchard:

You’re right about that. Yeah, exactly.

Scott Spreitzer:

So many memorable moments. 25 World Series I think he called, and I’ll just say this real quick before we jump into the games, and then we’ll mention Vin again later in the show, but I moved to Las Vegas a month out of high school. I was 17 years old from the Midwest, and that’s when I really, really started to listen to Vin Scully. Because I was in Vegas, we got all the Dodger games, all that stuff back then. And, I wasn’t even a big Dodger fan. I grew up in the Midwest. I respected the Dodgers. I did like Tommy Lasorda and appreciate the fact that they tried to win World Series every time, every season, every start of the year. And, I loved the folklore, everything.

But, I listed because of Vin Scully more than I did because of the Dodgers or who they were playing that day. Just tremendous. And as I got a little bit older, got married, laying in the backyard and the pool in summertime listening to Vin Scully, there’s just nothing better in life. And, I got to tell you, I’m not a guy who gets emotional but there was a little tear in the eye six years ago when he announced his last game, which just happened to be in San Francisco against the Giants. And then, of course, last night I was up all night, even later than usual, watching everybody, Orel Hershiser trying hard not to break down last night talking about Vin. Steve Garvey, who I did some work with a decade ago talking about Vin Scully, just one great after another talking about their experiences with Vin Scully was pretty cool last night.

And, I mean cool in all due respect to the sadness of the situation. But, what a life.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, it’s just great. He touched a ton … I mean, you’re telling stories, I’m telling stories. I’m everybody that’s listening, that’s watching us has stories of Vin Scully. Just an iconic in baseball.

Scott Spreitzer:

And those words, it’s time for Dodgers baseball. I just get the chills even thinking about it, so we’ll mention a little bit more. I’ve got this great quote that he said many years ago about preparing for success, or to give yourself the best chance for success. And, I’ll mention that before we go off the air, but I do want to talk about Seattle and the Yankees because I think Vin would say, “Okay guys, enough. Let’s get to the business,” if Vin was here with us.

Listen, this one comes up at the top of the hour, by the way, shortly after 1:05 Eastern time and the Yankees lay at 170. You see the comeback on your screen. +150 over/under seven, a little bit of juice on that over. Our first chance to see Luis Castillo in a Seattle Mariners uniform and it comes in the Bronx. Gerrit Cole will go for the Yankees. Mark, Cole has been a little shaky of late. Rough outing last time out against KC. Before the last start, he had three other starts throughout the course of the season that didn’t go well where he allowed at least five earned runs. But, guess what? His next game after those starts, all three games, Gerrit Cole allowed a grand total in those three games of one earned runs, 16 baserunners, no homers, 28 K’s in 19 innings pitched. We just talked about Burnes, he’ll probably come out and have that extra motivation off the bad start. That’s what we’ve seen out of Gerrit Cole in his previous tough starts this season.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, it’s funny, with the New York media, if the guy has one bad start, he’s a bum. Then if he comes out today and has a great start, he’s Cy Young. So, there’s always overreaction in that part of the country to a one start, but just looking at his overall numbers, they’re super impressive. He’s got the fifth best Base winner era at 2.57. His strikeout number, 58% above average and that’s just one of the components of this game that I’d like to move to play the under here. I’m going to go under 7. You get it at even money. I’ve got it priced from a projection standpoint at 6.6, and that includes the two offensives that I like. But, the pitching here is so good, and you start with Gerrit Cole. I’ve got him number six out of 150 pitches in my Base winner ratings.

He’s got a 40% better than average run suppression numbers. It’s 60. And then, I have Castillo in at 42 out of 150. And, I think my Base winner number might be sliding him a little bit. He’s 17% better than average, but I think if you look at his last five games, he goes 2.14 Base winner era, 3.19, 1.87, and those last two games were versus the Braves and at Tampa Bay in a pitcher’s park. That ballpark in Cincinnati’s, I bet you he’s super happy to be getting out of there. And then by my numbers against the Yankees, he was a 4.22 because he had four walks, but he did have eight strikeouts against the Yankees, and he really suppressed hits in that game too. He went seven innings against the Yankees when he pitched against him his last time. That was July 14th.

And then, Miami at home, the last time he took the rubber, was 2.72. So I think that that number should be a little bit lower, but I do things a certain way. But here’s really, I think … Well, there’s actually another thing that before I get into the bullpens, I just wanted to say this that I thought was surprising to me. I work with these numbers all the time and I had to double check this, but the Yankees defensive runs saved, +66 runs saved. Defensively, they’re the best team in baseball, and I wouldn’t have thought that. I was like, “Man, really?” I checked, I double checked it. Mariners are also in the top 10 fielding. So, that really goes into this underplay as well. And, then I talked about this Seattle bullpen yesterday, and it was Cleveland and Seattle, they’re neck and neck for the best bullpen in the American League, but after all the trade deadlines shake out, after the stat update, the Seattle Mariners best bullpen in baseball by my base winner ratings. And the Yankees, the Yankees are 10 so they’re in the top 10.

So, I think that we’ve got a lot of really good things on the defensive side and I think the way to play this is to go under the seven, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, I can’t disagree, and Castillo with the Reds, his last half dozen starts, he was terrific. And one of those really good starts happened to come against these Yankees, and he shut them down. And, that wasn’t too long ago, a couple of weeks ago when he shut down the Yankees. He’s now seen them and he knows when those big bats come to the plate, what he’s got to do, and I agree with you. I think it’s the under or nothing when you’re talking about those totals. So, let’s lock in Mark with the under between the Mariners and the Yankees in Wednesday baseball. And again, that goes about 1:05, 1:10 PM Eastern time, so it’s coming up after the top of the hour.

Next up, it is the Mets at Washington. Mets trying to get into bounce back mode. They’re laying …0 quite a big price here … They’re laying 260 comeback, 210. Over/under is sitting at nine, and this is one of those games where to me it’s like I know you’ve got that great, great record over the last few years with $2 plus favorites but if I was going to jump in on it, if I was going to just do the money line, I would parlay it. And, if I wasn’t going to do the money line, I would obviously do the run line and lay the run and a half, not take it with the Nats. They suffered a bit of a hiccup last night, Mark, as you saw, but I am betting they return to the win column today.

The pitching matchup, huge advantage obviously in favor of New York, as our the bats. Washington has been bad most of the season at home against righties, and in fact, they own the third worst weighted runs created plus, Mark, in all of Major League Baseball in this spot. Sixth worst WOBA, fifth worst OPS. That’s in Major League Baseball going back to July 1st. I doubt that they’re going to find the sweet elixir without Soto or Bell and improve those bad numbers against Chris Bassitt. Your thoughts on this one?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, the Nationals line, the way I’m looking at it right now, it looks like they’re going to lead off Victor Robles. He’s below average. Caesar Hernandez, he’s below average. Luke Voit, I actually have him above average. Poor Luke Voit. Gosh. One minute, your teammate is Juan Soto. You’re contending, you’re going to go to the playoffs. The next minute, “Hey dude, we have to talk to you about moving over here to Washington.” What a bad spot for him.

But anyway, he’s pretty decent. Hernandez is about league average. Nelson Cruz, I have above average but people would probably want to lynch me for that because Nelson Cruz has not been Nelson Cruz. That’s for sure. And then, Luis Garcia, who is probably about league average. Ruiz and Maikel Franco, it’s not exactly murderer’s row. So, the pricing on this … That all goes to show you how average to below average this offense is without Soto, without Josh Bell.

And then, in the Mets offense, I have second in baseball. So, you’ve got this offense that from my numbers is number two versus this offense that’s bottom third in baseball. And then, you’ve got two starting pitchers that I don’t really think that are even close, Scott. I’ve got Bass at 25th out of 150 pitchers. He’s got a 77 run suppression number. I’ve got Sanchez 134th out of 150 pitchers, and he’s 22% worse from a run suppression standpoint. I’ve got him priced -282. Bullpens, I said yesterday and I’m going to hold true to this until the end of the year. I’m not going to play a bad bullpen. Well, maybe the Angels’ will but I guess maybe I should rephrase this, Scott.

I’m not going to play a bullpen that’s worse than the opponent that I’m facing. And, if you look at my rankings for the bullpen, the Mets rank pretty good. They’re 9th in baseball, and the Nationals, although they’ve pitched better as of late, the bullpen has, but they’re 22nd in baseball by my ratings. So just a ton of numbers, and they all favor the Mets. I’m going to put them in a parlay with Ohtani and the Angels, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, you’ll get to the Angels in just a second. I was going to mention the Mets have been at or near the top of Major League Baseball on the road against righties all season. Current form, obviously long term throughout the course of the season, they’ve been really strong at the plate in this spot. And now you go after Sanchez, as you mentioned, you have him rated 134th out of 150 in your stats, and he’s got a 750 ERA basically, almost 750 in the WHIP. Not quite as high as you would think with that ERA, but still high at 140. And, he’s just been a disaster in minimal starts for the Nats. Lost all three.

As far as you look at Bassitt, his last nine road starts, he’s only had two rough outings. He had one in June, he had one in May. The other seven, he’s got an ERA just over two and a half. He’s got a WHIP that’s just over one, and he averages more than six innings pitched per start in those other seven road starts. So, I don’t fault you at all. I was sitting there looking at who I wanted to pair the Mets up with when it came to potential parlay today, to team or I’d think they’d bounce right back and get back in the win column after last night’s weird loss that they suffered at Washington.

I do want to talk about Oakland and the Angels. You did mention that’s part of your parlay, and this particular game Oakland and the Angels hooking up in Anaheim finds James Kaprielian and Shohei Ohtani on the mound. The counterpart is Shohei, and of course, -230 is that Angels line. They’re a -230 chalk, comeback +190, over/under is seven.

And, it’s just I have to rub my eyes. Listen, I’m the biggest Shohei Ohtani fan you’re going to find east of Anaheim. I just love great players and guys who do their best to become elite. I still rub my eyes when I see 230. Of course, I have to remind myself it’s Shohei Ohtani, and he’s had double digit strikeouts each of his last six outings. And usually, not always … not last time out in fact … but usually when Shohei’s been on the mound, you see the rest of the team pick up their game. His energy is just unbelievable and it gets everybody else involved. And, when they were going game in game out without being able to score runs, when Ohtani would come in, they would score five or six runs for him and he would shut down the opposition.

So, you certainly know why, especially with everything that’s happened in the last 48 hours, why he is laying that price. Big favorite. Total, as I mentioned, is seven. They are also 6-2 against Oakland this year after last night’s 3-1 win. Kaprielian took care of business in five July starts for the A’s. But you like the price here combined, I should say parlayed with the Mets, the Angels to the Mets. So, talk a little bit about why you’re going to back the Angels with that lovable bullpen and the way their bats can go silent for months at a time.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. You talk about a bad lineup with the Angels, but I think Oakland’s lineup is worse. But just real quick, if you parlay the Mets and the Angels, you get it about even money. I think that’s really good to get. And, here’s a scandalous thing from maybe some baseball hipsters. No, I have Ohtani as the best pitcher in baseball, and I don’t know if I would get that much of a pushback on it. If you look at his last six starts, double digit strikeouts in every one of his starts. Just to give you the scope of how good he’s been compared to other pitchers in the league, his median strikeout in his 2022 numbers is 10. That means that’s what you expect to get as a rule. He’s going to get 10 strikeouts.

We talked about Burnes extensively yesterday and how good he is. He’s a great pitcher, but his median strikeouts is only eight. Shane McClanahan, who we’ve said he’s had a great year and I’ve backed him and I’ve lauded him quite a bit, his median strikeouts are only eight. This guy, I don’t remember a guy throwing … And Robbie Ray didn’t do it last year. He won the Cy Young. I don’t remember a guy going double digit strikeouts six straight. I’m going to take some of this. I know the price is high, but we just have such a huge edge. He’s my number one guy in the ratings. I’ve got him with a 50% run suppression number. The other guy, Kaprielian, he’s 22% worse than average. So, we just get a huge advantage there and why didn’t I play it on the five inning line? Well, I think Ohtani can go more than five innings, so I’ll take Ohtani for more than that.

And then, the bullpens, as bad as the Angels are rated, they’re 21st in baseball but the A’s are worse and they got rid of probably their best guy with Trevino. They’re 28th in baseball. And then you look offensively, and I’ve got the Angels at 23rd in baseball even with this carnation without Trout. And then, I’ve got Oakland at 27th in baseball. So, I don’t think we have a disadvantage there at worst in the relief and the offense. The starting pitching advantage is just immense, so I’m going to make a parlay with the Angels and the Mets. I think it’s the way to go here, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, we’ll lock Mark in for that parlay best bet on the Mets to the Halos. Mark, I’m got to ask you real quick, because I think next year at this time, we’re going to be talking about Shohei being traded away and moved somewhere else. He’s got 2023 left on his contract with the Angels after that. He’s free to roam, so we’ll be talking about him again next trade deadline. I hear a lot of people that I don’t know if they really … and I’m not trying to say this in a disrespectful manner to a lot of the analysts that we watch on TV, the traditional analysts, not necessarily betting analyst who say that maybe Shohei would be best served becoming just a pitcher. And, I’m not sure they grasp what he’s done and maybe that’s a couple of years down the road, and I won’t argue with that, but right now he’s handling everything as well as can be.

And, his at bats certainly don’t hurt his pitching. His pitching has been getting better each and every year that he’s been in the league and he’s learned how to handle Major League Baseball batters. His location is great. The guy at the end of the game is throwing faster than he does at the beginning of a game. You don’t know if that can last forever, but why should we doubt it? I mean, he’s doing things that haven’t been done in 100 years basically since Babe Ruth. Every time I watch an Angels broadcast, I end up taking a picture of a graphic on the screen with my phone that shows something Shohei is doing that has been done three times in the history of the league, or maybe never since Babe Ruth. What are your thoughts? If he does become a trade prospect next season at this time, do you tell this guy, “Hey, we’re going to focus on your pitching. We want to make sure you’ve got 10 years-

Mark Borchard:

No, I wouldn’t change a thing. The guy’s got double digit strikeouts six games in a row. He’s the best pitcher in baseball. Okay, let’s say what we’re with what we’re doing guys. Sometimes people overthink this stuff and the guy’s been … I’m just saying he’s the best pitcher in baseball. I would like to have a debate. You tell me that Verlander is better than Ohtani, and I’ll show you the numbers and you’ll be like, “Well, Verlander’s not better than Ohtani.” I think Ohtani, to win the Cy Young at 11-1 is a great price. But why would you break that? And maybe there’s something to be said about having some rhythm. He’s batting, he’s pitching. No, don’t change anything.

And here’s another thing that they don’t think about. These DH’s aren’t cheap, and the organization’s getting players for the price of one basically. They don’t talk about that. No, I think that would be the worst thing to do. Now maybe if he starts to really drop off in one of the categories, maybe you say something, but gosh, no, keep going, man. Gosh, the pitching has been just tremendous, Scott. Just amazing, his last few outings. Just unbelievable.

The skill that he has gets buried in the crappiness of that team because the last time he went out, they lost 2-0 but he still struck out 10 guys. Anyway.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, he loses to no fault of his own when he does lose. And, he’s just tremendous night in, night out. I’m glad you said that, because I’ve been arguing for the last several months on some of the shows that I do why would you … and, I think you hit it on the head when you said maybe there’s that rhythm that he’s out there ever day. He’s engaged mentally every single game that the Angels are playing. It’s not, “Okay, well I’m pitching in four days or five days. After this start, I can take it easy the next two days and have a couple of cold ones after the game tomorrow night with a couple of members of the pitching staff.” He’s engaged every single time the Angels step on the field, and it might help him with his pitching.

But, I’m certainly not going to sit a guy who can DH and hit 35, maybe 40 home runs per campaign and 90-100 RBI. Why in the world would I want to sit that half of what he does? I’m glad to hear you’re onboard with the same way I think about Shohei Ohtani. He hit the genetic lottery. He’s unbelievable and he’s a hard worker, and I’m all for a team who does grab Shohei next year. Hopefully keeping him in southern California with the Dodgers or something-

Mark Borchard:

That’d be nice to see. And, they might. Moreno spent money and I think that he’d probably be willing to spend it again.

Scott Spreitzer:

I thought they made the right move. He’s the only thing that’s really putting rear ends in the seat right now in Anaheim, and the money they make off of him with souvenir sales, I just think it was a situation where they made the right move for this season with another year on that contract.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I think that he shouldn’t be vilified the way he’s been vilified. I think a lot of the Angels’ problems have stemmed from bad health of Trout, bad health of Rendon. You can’t fault the owner for guys getting injuries. I don’t think it was Arte Moreno’s fault that these guys got hurt, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

Well, yeah, and in the minor league, the farm system, that’s been years in the process of becoming horrible, that farm system. So, I get it why maybe next year you trade Shohei. Plus, Shohei wants to go to a team that’s got a chance to win, and then you can get a lot for him hopefully next year anyway. So, we lock Mark in for that two-teamer on the Mets to the Angels.

The final game we’re going to talk about is the Dodgers and the Giants, then we’ll take some questions from the folks watching but right now as we speak, the Dodgers lay at $159, comeback on San Francisco is $1.44. Over/under sitting at seven and a half. Juice on the under at -$1.20. We’ve seen a lot of runs scored in this series the last couple of nights. I’m betting their first five innings of this game will produce different results on Wednesday. You’ve got Julio Urias and you’ve got Alex Cobb. They’re both posting outstanding hard hit and barrel rate numbers in 2022.

Urias, look at his hard hit percentage. 27.5%. That’s phenomenal right now. Cobb’s barrel rate, 2.9%. I’m going to use that ph word again. That’s phenomenal right now. We talk about good pitchers who have barrel rates of 7% and hard hit rates of 34%. These guys are smoking those numbers right now. They’re ridiculously strong metrics, Mark.

And, Dodger opponents have scored a grand total of 23 runs in Urias’s last 10 road starts. 2.3 runs per game. That’s start to finish. And as far as the first five inning results are concerned in those 10 games, Urias in the first five innings has allowed two, zero, one, zero, two, zero, zero, one, one and one run in those 10 games. That’s outstanding pitching. You look at Cobb. His last five opponents at home scored a grand total of 15 runs, or three a game 1st through 9th. He allowed just four earned runs in the first five innings of those five starts combined.

So, they’ve got everything I’m looking for. Both pitchers are doing extremely well, as of late especially, the first couple of times through a batting order. I always look for that if I’m going to play the first five under, and that’s my best MLB betting for today, Mark. I’ll be interested to see if you agree or disagree with this, but first five under, which is for -$1.20 between the Dodgers and Giants tonight.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I think you broke that down really good, including the hard hit metrics, and you’re not going to get any disagreement by my numbers. I’ve got Urias at 81, 19% better than average. He’s 37th in baseball. And, I’ve got Cobb actually better than Urias. I’ve got him 33rd in baseball out of 150 pitchers. But what’s interesting about Cobb is I think he’s been really unlucky. So, when you went over the hard hit metrics, I thought that made sense because if you take a look at his batting average of balls in play, home runs to fly balls and left on base percentage, he’s in a three percentile from a luck standpoint.

The higher you are percentile, the luckier you are. So 3%, he’s been super unlucky. So I think that plays into your favor. The only thing that really kept me away, because I looked at playing this game on the full under last night, and the only thing that kept me away from it was the weather, and the way I’m looking at it on my charts is it looks like the wind’s blowing out pretty hard-

Scott Spreitzer:

I did see that.

Mark Borchard:

So, that’s a little concerning when you’re playing the under. And this whole humidity thing with the humidor, this has been the 2022 park factor theme for me, and it’s just not an ideal park factor with a humid … Game time humidity at 75%, which is not supposed to be good in these circumstances with the humidor. The pitching numbers, I totally agree with you on, and I think that playing those the first five under … You’ve talked about this on the show with the ghost runner situation and extra innings … it’s probably something that if you like an under, it’s probably something that you should consider, “Well, okay, if I like the full game under, why do I like it? And can I get almost the same value playing the five inning under,” because then you’re not going to run into that ghost runner situation late in the game. But, that’s my thought on it, Scott. I think that your pitching numbers are spot on, man.

Scott Spreitzer:

And I’m glad you brought up the weather issue because I didn’t see that when I was handicapping last night about the winds were expected to be blowing out at a decent rate in this game. And, that’s one of the main reasons … that was one of three reasons, and the fact that it’s going to be humid … that I did cut it down to a first five. One of those is always for me, the ghost runner in extra innings. But the fact that you got these two pitchers with those incredible metrics, I thought, I think that counters the wind factor. Now, I could be wrong. We’ll see what happens tonight.

But I didn’t want to mess in the late innings with that wind, even though you’ve got bullpens, you got a couple of arms that come out of these pens with the Dodgers and things of that nature that can do the job. I just didn’t want to mess with that wind for the entire game. I only wanted to try to defy the wind and the weather with two excellent starting pitchers who do well the first two times through the lineup. So, that’s one of the main reasons that I did play it first five.

Mark Borchard:

And Scott, the other thing with these weather projections, and we pull it in from dark skies … And Scott, the programmer who works for me, he’s a weather guy, too. He’s really into it, but it’s not always right. We’re predicting weather at … what time is it? 9:00 am and the game is probably eight hours away, so sometimes the weather projection, especially overnight is not going to match up with the actual projections at game time, and that’s just part of the way the weather is. How many times have they said it’s going to rain and you go out there and it’s sunny and you’re like, “These guys are full of it.” Right?

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah. Listen, I take it to heart, though, the night before. When they say the winds are blowing out at Wrigley or blowing out at Fenway, I just side with caution and I’m like, “Okay, well I’m going to heed that warning and I’m not playing any unders in those parks,” but you’re right, for the most part. A couple of the sites that I use are really good, even though they put these forecasts out at first the night before the games, late, like 11:00 PM Pacific. And again, I think it probably will be blowing out a bit tonight. Maybe not the amount of speed that they’re talking about last night, but again, I think these two starting pitchers might be able to, I guess, minimalize the winds blowing out at Oracle.

So anyway, those are my thoughts on that and I am locked in there, as you see on the screen. First five under for laying $120 with that. Obviously, we’ve got Q&As coming up. Mark or myself can answer some of your questions on some of today’s other remaining games. There’s a bunch of games going obviously today and tonight in Major League Baseball. I did want to say … Well, we’ll get to the questions first and then we’ll talk a little bit about Vin as we wrap things up. Mark Holmes, one of our faithful viewers, he’s asking for our thoughts, Mark, on KC and the White Sox. Base winner line. What do you think, Mark?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, he wanted the base winner line. The base winner line is -139. So, pretty much where the market is. Just quick components, I’ve got White Sox 14th in baseball bullpen, Kansas City 27th in baseball bullpen. Actually, the number on Brady Singer is pretty impressive. I’ve got him 20th in baseball, I’m still high on Lynn. I’ve got him 50th in baseball. Yeah, I think it’s priced correctly. Maybe if you play it, you play the under. I’m showing a little bit of value on the underside. 7.5 runs is my run projection for this game, but I would stay away from this side. I think the Oddsmakers did a good job on this one, Scott and Mark. Thanks Mark for the question.

Scott Spreitzer:

And, I lean towards Kansas City actually in this one. So, your number is a little bit below where the actual line sits, but I do lean KC. If you look at Singer those last what? Six July starts. They’re actually 5:1 when he takes the hill and his numbers are ridiculous. Just over a two ERA and about 111 WHIP. Singer-

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I’m looking at this. You can tell I’m shocked. He’s got a 74 run suppression number, so I’m glad you’re saying it. I’m glad there’s not a mistake in the way I’m pulling his number, because it really makes you think, “Well gosh, is this guy good?” So, I’m glad you’re saying that he has been really good.

Scott Spreitzer:

And the White Sox, I keep saying it, I do so many shows, I don’t know if it’s this show and I sound like a recording, but if the White Sox could win at home, they’re leading the division, the AL Central. They’ve only won 24 of 53 games at home this year, which is crazy.

We’ve got Chris Capickin, I’m going to say is how he pronounces that name. I’m sorry if I messed it up. Don’t feel bad. People mess up Spreitzer and have called me everything under the book other than Spreitzer, so I’m there with you. But, he asks will the Cy Young contender, Martin Perez, stay undefeated since April 17th in tonight’s game? What say you, Mark?

Mark Borchard:

Marty Perez, man. He’s villain number two on this show. I’ve really talked a lot of trash about him, but I tell you what, his base winner number now is 88. So, he’s 56th in baseball. I’ve got the thing priced at -146. I like Bradish, too. I’ve got him 8% better than average. Amazingly enough, you see Baltimore, Texas a total at 7.5, and I think if I had to play it, I’d play the under. But, I think it’s priced from a money line standpoint. I think it’s priced where it needs to be, meaning that he probably has a good chance to win the game since he is the favorite at -142 to answer your question.

Scott Spreitzer:

And I’m going to lay $170 that it’s Capipian, the pronunciation of that likely Armenian last name from Chris.

Mark Borchard:

I’ve got to give you an E for effort. Good job, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

Aaron Rod, any thoughts on the Red Sox and Astros? And if Bello’s on the mount, I can tell you right now I’m not only not playing Boston on any money line, but I’m not also not playing them on the run line. It’s Urquidy in Houston on the run line, or parlay them with a couple of other plays if you’re into that. I’m not into anything more than two team parlays but if I see Bello’s name on my sheet, I’m looking to go the other way. How about you, Mark?

Mark Borchard:

You’re not a fan of Bello of the Ball? You remember bell? This guy’s Bello of the baseball. No, I’ve go a long term projection and it’s decent on Bello, so I’m showing a little bit of value on the Red Sox here but I’m not going to play it. I don’t like to play these pitchers that have a short track record. I just think that there’s just so many games in baseball over the course of a season that even if you see value and you’re like, “Well, my numbers show that there’s value on this other team,” I’m not going to play it because I think that there’s better stats to look at with people that have a long term track record. So I’m personally going to stay away from this game.

Urquidy, 77% stuff plus, 91% pitching plus. It’s a hard train to get in front of, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

We’ve got another question here. Fabian Serdas, and he says thoughts on the Yankees/Astros parlay. We already know what Mark said earlier today on the show about looking to play that Seattle/New York game. As far as the other game is concerned, we just talked about it, man. It’s Urquidy in that matchup or nothing. I believe it’s still Urquidy going. I saw right before the show that those were the two projected starters. I can’t back Bello so it would have to be Houston if I was going to parlay that, and I’m not so sure I would tie the Yankees in into any parlay today, Mark.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I’m actually showing value on the Yankees if I were to play it on the money line, but I don’t know. There’s too many question marks in that Red Sox/Astros game to make it a parlay. Maybe if you like the Yankees, you parlay the Yankees to under in the same game, because it would be definitely a correlated parlay. And, I think that there’s opportunities where you can see if you like a side and you like a total to go ahead and make that correlation. So, I think that might be a better use of that Yankees team if you want to play the Yankees in a parlay, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

And what I was going to suggest is maybe a New York parlay, the Mets to the Yankees. If I was going to get involved with that, that’s what I would do. I’m not going to be involved in that, making that a parlay on my own, but I would look maybe the Mets and the Yankees, parlay those two. Maybe Peralta in Milwaukee with the Yankees, if you really do like the Yankees. But anyway, I’ll tell you real quickly about why I think Milwaukee got rid of Hader. I think there might have been some problems behind the scenes with Hader, maybe doubt or whatever. You mentioned the other day that his wife was pregnant and he went on leave twice. Went on leave, came back, went on leave.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I thought that was strange.

Scott Spreitzer:

It was. But I think also they feel like they got Rogers, whose numbers are almost the same as Hader if you really break it down, and then you got Devin Williams. And, I really think they like Devin Williams as their closer and by getting rid of Hader, you just took care of any problems in the clubhouse, any situations that might have come up between Williams and Hader and whichever pitcher the team happens to like most, and it might have splintered a little bit the locker room. So, those are the reasons for that.

But let’s see, Don Play says should I take under six and a half in the battle between the Braves and the Phillies? Well, let me see the game, I believe, got underway about 30 minutes ago and I don’t have the score in front of me so if you let me check the score, I’ll tell you.

Mark Borchard:

There’s one, a couple shows, there was a 9:00 start, the team scored in the first inning. I said, “First team to score in the first inning, yes. Go for it.” I guess if you’re looking to play in live game, I have the projection at 7.4 runs for this game.

Scott Spreitzer:

There you go. Potential live action. And again, I don’t have the scores in front of me right now so I have no idea what’s happened in that game. And, I want to say thanks to all the folks who ask the questions each and every day and watch this show. Mark puts a lot of work into it. We all do. Filling in for TC has been a return to hosting somewhat for me. I’m a handicapper and a better. I play host once in a while on TV and radio, but my thing is to be an analyst, so I’m having fun with this and we’ve got a couple more days to go before TC comes back.

Mark Borchard:

You know what, Scott? I personally love the questions because you do different media stuff and you don’t ever get the chance to interact in the way that we can interact on this show. So, I personally enjoy it, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

Oh, I love it. We used to have a text set up on a show that I did at ESPN local in Las Vegas for several years. Guys like Dave Cokin were part of the show. We had Matt Youmans from VSiN was part of the show, things like that. And, we used to take texts, like we’re doing here, which made the show, I thought, more fun and it was interactive. I’m proud to say that those guys who started that show, and I came in later, had already incorporated that into their daily show before any local shows were really doing that. I had a blast going back and forth with texters. And as you say, sometimes you talk about a certain player, like Nelson Cruz. I’m probably going to get lynched for saying this … Well, you got lynched. You got lynched when you saw those texts messages coming across. It was always fun to go back and forth with the listeners.

But listen, let’s recap the best bets and then we’re going to jump into some final thoughts on Vin Scully and the Wednesday card. I’m going to go with the Dodgers/San Francisco game under four in the first five innings, going to lay a $120 or thereabouts with that play. Base winner, he’s going to go with the under seven full game, Seattle and the Yankees. And he’s also going to parlay the Mets to the Angels right around -$1.01 at BetUS. So, those are your three best bests for today’s card.

Mark, there’s something that Vin Scully said many, many years ago. He was being interviewed and they asked him about … He prepared so hard for each and every broadcast, and it didn’t matter if it was baseball or football, or what have you. He always prepared, and the interviewer happened to say … he was in his first ever broadcast and was scared to make a mistake or to come up short with information. This was probably 50 years into his 67 year career with the Dodgers, so by no means did Vin Scully need to prove anything to anybody. But, he did to himself.

And he answered the question with one of the best quotes that I’ve ever heard. It doesn’t guarantee success, but boy, I’m telling you, it certainly gives you a better shot to find success no matter what walk of life you have to be in. But Vin Scully said you must have in order to succeed, the humility to prepare and the confidence to pull it off. Very short quote. I thought that was one of the most incredible quotes I ever heard, and I’ve been doing my best to live by that quote since the minute I heard it. And he had a lot of quotes and a lot of stories along the way.

I’ll tell you real quick, Mark, when I got into the business, which I wanted to be in play-by-play, color, that stuff in the 80s. My first radio gig, I was 20 years old here in Las Vegas, and I was actually studying at the time, when I wasn’t working, Japanese and broadcast journalism. For whatever reason, I had this goal to go to Japan and try to latch on in Japan with their professional baseball league for at least four or five, six years and see what I could come of it. Almost like a player that’s not quite there at major league level who goes to the KBO in South Korea or goes to Japan and tries to improve his game. And, I thought man, I’d love to go over there, check out the culture, check out the lifestyle, get a gig for five years, which wouldn’t be easy to do but you’d have to work your way up, just like here in the states, and then come back and see what I can make of it.

What happened was I had been in Las Vegas for about two and a half years. Like I said, I came out here right after high school. And, I feel in love with the sports books and it was so tough to not go to class when you had your choice of 50 different sports books all within a couple of miles of the campus of UNLV. So, that’s what it turned into, but Vin Scully was the reason I wanted to be a baseball announcer. I loved the sport, I loved Vin and I just wanted to have 1/1000th of his talent to be able to go out and do what he did so easily and naturally every single night. He was the reason I got into that. It just morphed into sports betting because I couldn’t stop making that turn when I was supposed to be heading to campus to go to one of the station casinos or go to the then Las Vegas Hilton and sit in a sportsbook for six hours when I should have been in class.

Mark Borchard:

Right. Yeah, but you mentioned what a professional, consummate pro he was and how seamless he made everything look, but he did. I’ve seen stories on the preparation that he put into a game and it was extensive. It was super impressive, but he made it seem so easy and that’s so hard to do. And so, God bless Vin Scully. He’s been so inspirational to me, and just a lot of happy thoughts thinking about Vin.

Scott Spreitzer:

Absolutely. That’s going to do it for us for Wednesday BetUS TV Major League Baseball show. We’ll of course be back on a Thursday and Friday at 12:00 noon Eastern, 9:00 AM Pacific time. For Mark, the “BaseWinner” Borchard, I’m Scott Spreitzer. Let’s put them in the win column, everybody.

 

BetUS Sportsbook & Casino
Average rating:  
 0 reviews

Show More

Related Tags

HLTV BLAST.tv