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TC Martin:

And welcome aboard on this Wednesday, wherever you may be. Thanks for joining us here on the MLB Show on BetUSTV presented by America’s favorite sportsbook , BetUS . I am TC Martin, flanked left to right by Jeff Nadu and the Base Winner, Mark Borchard. Glad to have everyone join us here on this Wednesday edition.

TC Martin:

Fellas, good to see both of you guys. Mark, you had your little off day yesterday. I know you didn’t go outside and get a sun tan or hang by the pool because, probably like me here in Vegas, you’re in Scottsdale, I’m sure you’re enjoying temperatures about 109 right now, right?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. It’s starting to heat up here. We talked about this before the show. You basically do outside activities in a two-hour timeframe between 5:00 and 7:00 in the morning. And then if you miss that, then you basically need to stay inside.

TC Martin:

So there you go. All right.

TC Martin:

Jeff, how’s it going, my friend?

Jeff Nadu:

Doing well. Had a couple of pushes last night, which suck. Obviously better than losses, but I would’ve liked to have gotten some wins there, especially when the White Sox erupted for four runs in the sixth inning, of course.

Jeff Nadu:

But got a winner with the other game I bet. So winning night, nonetheless, but it could’ve been 3-0, and it should have been 3-0.

TC Martin:

Yeah, yeah, yeah. And that Red Sox game got a little scary. Looked like the Angels showed up after getting rid of Joe Maddon. Then, of course, their bullpen comes in and blows it, and the game goes extra innings, and Boston ends up winning by one run in that game.

TC Martin:

And guys, let’s start the show off, because obviously, that is the baseball news today. And we heard it yesterday of Joe Maddon getting let go by the Angels yesterday. Two plus seasons. We had talked about this before when Joe Gerardi got let go last week by the Phillies.

TC Martin:

Owners, general managers, they’re not going to stand for this, no matter how big a name you have. Those were big-time hires. The Phillies and Joe Gerardi. Joe Madden coming into the Angels, kind of coming back home, but it just never worked out there in Anaheim. It really hasn’t worked out for anybody since Mike’s Scioscia left, but Maddon’s gone after a 12-game losing streak, and the Angels lose again last night, so that losing streak continues up to 13 now.

TC Martin:

But yeah. Just the way baseball goes here, the manager is going to take the fall for this, but this has just been a bad organization, really from top to bottom, for quite some time.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. Go, sorry. Go ahead, Jeff.

Jeff Nadu:

No, I really just wanted to say, I think we can kind of laugh at Joe Maddon and… Look. In LA, he was just not real effective. But I think that has a lot more to do with the organization as opposed to him.

Jeff Nadu:

Look, Joe Maddon, for the most part, has been a manager since 2006. Keep in mind, went to the World Series with the Rays once, won a World Series with the Cubs, had some deep runs in the playoffs.

Jeff Nadu:

This is a guy that’s going to go manage at somewhere else. I don’t think this was just a good fit for him. He just wasn’t good there. They didn’t make the playoffs in any of the years. I think they were fourth in both years he was there. Full years.

Jeff Nadu:

So Joe Madden, we can joke around, and maybe he’s lost a step. He is 68 years old, but at the end of the day, he’s still very surprised, still active, and still a guy that, I think, can manage. I think, overall, he is a good manager. Just didn’t work there.

TC Martin:

[inaudible 00:03:21]

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I just think that it was just a real disappointing… I guess, it’s been a disappointing 55 games or so for the Angels, but I don’t see that. I mean, how are they going to rebound there? Maybe try to make a play for a wild card?

Mark Borchard:

It’s an interesting division. I don’t think that you would’ve guessed this with, with the quality of the of the NL Central, but if you look at the biggest lead in baseball, the Houston Astros have the biggest lead in baseball. Nine and a half games.

Mark Borchard:

And I don’t think that you would’ve said, “Well, 60 games into the season. Who’s going to have the biggest lead in baseball?” I mean, I would’ve said it would’ve been Milwaukee, but interestingly enough, Texas is tied with the Angels for second place in that division. So not even the Seattle Mariners, who was really kind of a hipster pick to contend there, including myself. I thought the Mariners would be up there a little bit higher, as well as the Angels.

Mark Borchard:

So yeah. It’s been a real disappointing season for the Angels, but is it going to get better? I don’t see how they’re going to get to Houston. I just don’t. I don’t see it, TC.

TC Martin:

Yeah. You know, the manager will take the fall in this situation, but there just seemed a big disconnect. And I’ve had a very – One of my close, personal friends had worked for Joe Maddon before in a previous organization, and he will rub people the wrong way. And in this thing, he just seemed like he was just so disconnected.

TC Martin:

And here’s the thing, when I look at the Angels, fundamentally, they just have not been good. And you can blame the injuries, and we understand.

TC Martin:

There goes Trout. Trout hits a homer last night the first thing, and what happens? Then he exits. Now he’s going to be out again. This guy can’t stay healthy.

TC Martin:

Rendon has been injured. He can’t stay healthy. But like you said, it goes back to that pitching and the bullpen and everything else. But just to see how lethargic or lackadaisical these guys are, especially out in the field, it just… and I understand what Artie Marino was talking about.

TC Martin:

We need a fresh voice. He goes, he loves Joe Maddon. It was his idea to bring him here. But when you’re not getting that connectivity in the clubhouse, it almost seems like Joe Maddon had checked out a while ago.

TC Martin:

And I don’t know, Jeff, if he is going to manage again. That’s the thing. Does he want to? Because the way it ended for him, the Cubs was ugly, this ends for him real ugly, and Joe Maddon doesn’t need to manage. I mean, to me, he’s probably better suited unless he just has this fire in his belly to take a year or two off and come back.

TC Martin:

Like, “Okay, I’m going to be reinvigorated,” but we have not seen that energy from him probably the year before the Cubs won the World Series. He definitely had it in Tampa Bay, but I don’t know.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I wouldn’t mind seeing him in some sort of a media role. I think he has a pretty good personality, kind of a quirky guy. Maybe kind of like an Ozzie Guillén type. I could see him operating in that sort of thing. I wouldn’t mind seeing him there.

Jeff Nadu:

You have to have a personality to do that.

TC Martin:

Right. Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

You know, he might be good there, but yeah. You’re right. He’s got a lot of money. He’s in his – like I said, he’s close to 70 years old. I’m sure he’ll be good. But I think he could manage. I just don’t think this was a good fit for him.

TC Martin:

Yeah, that’s it.

TC Martin:

All right guys. Let’s talk about yesterday’s action. We’ll take a look at our record board, where we’re at right now.

TC Martin:

Like Jeff said… Kind of unfortunate yesterday, because he had the winner in that White Sox game yesterday. It was nothing, nothing through five, and then the white Sox get four runs in the sixth inning, so that’s unfortunate.

TC Martin:

But again, I’ll point to that game too of Dave Roberts doing it again. You know, Jeff, you and I talked yesterday about the pitching match up, and I said, “I don’t like either guy.” And lo and behold look, look what you get out of Mitch White. Mitch White goes five shut-out innings. He gives up two hits. Never threatened. And Dave Robert says, “Oh, pull the plug.”

TC Martin:

And sure enough, when the Dodgers pull the plug, look what happens. Their bullpen blows up again.

TC Martin:

I mean, it’s really hard playing this Dodger team knowing that you have a manager that will not let a starter go deep, and then you get into that shaky bullpen, and it’s even worse now because Craig Kimbrel, he’s on paternity leave now, and he hasn’t been very good anyway.

TC Martin:

So yeah. It’s just one of those things where you handicap again. And I think both of us handicapped that game well, and again, Kopech was great yesterday. I mean he struck out eight, I think he walked one,, hardly gave up any hits. But look at Mitch White. I mean, he threw the game of his life and didn’t even get a chance to continue that game yesterday. So that was kind of crazy.

TC Martin:

But yeah. The other game’s good. Verlander was good for Houston yesterday. The Padres were good. Darvish there.

TC Martin:

So that was good. That was good. Like I said, so my streak of eight in a row is over, but we started a new one. I’ll take nine out of the last 10, so that’s good. So let’s get it cracking here today, guys, and see if we can continue to get some winners here on the board.

TC Martin:

Let’s look at today’s first game. Let’s look at the Yankees and the Minnesota Twins. And the Yankees, a $1.65 road favorite in this game, the Yankees continue to roll seven straight wins. Total in this game is nine. Weather should not be any factor at Minnesota here tonight, but it is shaded towards the under -120.

TC Martin:

A lot of that could have to do with Nestor Cortes Jr., who has been on fire for the Yanks. Chris Archer going for Minnesota. Base Winner, you want to start us off?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I think this game’s priced kind of where it needs to be. I mean, the Yankees have been… Talk about a surprise. The Yankees. What a surprise that they’ve been, and I was on them to win their season win total, and they’re going to exceed that by a lot of games, but I didn’t expect him to be this good.

Mark Borchard:

And I really didn’t expect Cortes to be this good either. And if you look at his stuff, plus he’s only got in the 32nd percentile from a stuff plus standpoint. I’ve got it at a -163. I think we get an advantage.

Mark Borchard:

If you’re playing the Yankees, you do get an advantage with the offense. You get an advantage with the bullpen.

Mark Borchard:

This was an interesting stab, because we talked on the show about the Yankees bullpen. They lost some pieces and guys got hurt, but if you look over the last 30 days, they had the highest swinging strike percentage as a bullpen in baseball, and so I thought that was pretty interesting.

Mark Borchard:

So you get a good bullpen there. You know, the Minnesota bullpen is not awful. Overall, they’re at their seventh by my ratings. I just think that… I think the price is probably where it needs to be, TC. I hope you win your play, but I don’t think there’s much value with the Yankees,

TC Martin:

Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. You know, we don’t talk enough about the journey of Nestor Cortes and where he is now, as opposed to where he was. This is the guy that… And TC, interestingly enough, we would probably bag on if he wasn’t pitching well.

Jeff Nadu:

This guy was selected way back in 2013 in the 36th round, becomes a rule five guy from the Orioles, goes to the Yankees again. They let him go. He goes to the Mariners. They let him go. Yankees sign him on a Minor League contract in 2020, and you look at him now.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, he’s been terrific all season. It’s been one of those renaissance, wild, random years for him. You have to wonder though, like a lot of the guys we bag on, will he eventually come to roost, and will he eventually just pitch like the pitcher he’s always been? That’s remained to be seen.

Jeff Nadu:

The Yankees jumped all over the Twins yesterday. Really not a team I want to get in front of, and I just don’t really want to be the guy waiting around for Nestor Cortes to not pitch well. He has pitched well. Not a big Archer guy. He’s definitely lost a step, personally to me.

Jeff Nadu:

I just don’t have much interest in this. I would lean Yankees. You got a great bullpen, as well. I think you’re on the right side here.

TC Martin:

I hear you with Cortes too. It is one of those guys that this just goes to show you that right place, right time, right organization. And they’ve invested in this guy too. And I mean that invested… First of all, he gets run support. And those other stops that you talked about, he was with terrible offensive teams.

TC Martin:

But I think from a pitching standpoint too… From a pitching coach standpoint, they probably look at this guy, and they said, “Okay, you’ve got some good stuff. You’ve got some electric stuff, but let’s just harness you a little bit.”

TC Martin:

And whatever they’ve done with him has been amazing, because this isn’t just a guy who’s being the benefactor of winning games 7-5, or something like that. Listen to these numbers, guys.

TC Martin:

This guy has 37 strikeouts in his last five starts and has given up earned runs as follows: 0, 1, 3, his high. He won that game by the way too. 1, 0, 2, 2, 2, 0, and 0.

TC Martin:

This guy hasn’t lost since May the 4th, he’s the ERA leader in the entire Major League Baseball right now at 1.50, so I just got to keep riding this guy, because it’s not like he’s even showing us any starts in there that they’ve even been close to bad. The guy’s been basically unhittable.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, if this guy’s fourth in the odds to win the AL Cy Young at 8-0, he’s in front of Manoah, Gausman, Bieber. Kopech.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, if this guy wins a Cy Young, that would be the most incredible, really just renaissance. Or that’s like going from single A to I mean, winning the Cy. That’s crazy. To being in front of someone like Manoah, what a season for him.

TC Martin:

And like you said, 36th round pick. That’s amazing.

Jeff Nadu:

Crazy.

TC Martin:

And then on the other side guys, Archer. You hit. You hit it, Jeff. I have not been a Archer fan since he left Tampa Bay. Obviously, his velocity’s down. Everything’s down. This guy has gone 10 starts without a win. This guy is winless in 10 starts. I don’t understand how you can keep marching this guy out here.

TC Martin:

And when you look at the Yankees offense, I mean, they’re just tailor-made for this guy. The top four hitters have accounted for eight RBIs. Last night’s game in Minnesota without Sanó and Correa in the lineup. I mean, there’s no punch in the heart of this lineup whatsoever.

TC Martin:

For me, there’s no need to overthink this game. Keep riding the Yankees, go with Cortes in the hot pitcher, go against Archer, who is dreadful.

TC Martin:

So to me, it’s like… Yeah, I could look at the odds, look at the win streak, look at Cortes. I just can’t overthink it. I just got to go push the chips forward and go with the Yankees. So that’s my MO, so lock me in for the Yankees here today.

TC Martin:

What I think, Base Winner, is a pretty fair price considering everything that we just laid out at -165. Probably should be a 2-1 favorite.

TC Martin:

And in a run line situation too, this is probably a good run line as well too, because the Yankees have been covering run lines left and right. So, there we go.

TC Martin:

All right, let’s move on to the next game guys with the Dodgers and the White Sox. Dodgers, like we mentioned have been struggling two and five of their last home stand, got this road trip off and on the wrong foot. White Sox have now won, what, three in a row.

TC Martin:

Dodgers, a $1.75 favorite. White Sox +1.55. You want to keep riding that streak. Take a look at the White Sox there plus money over under 8.5 minus 1.15 to the over. It is Tony Gonsolin and Johnny Cueto. Jeff, give us some thoughts on Dodgers-Sox.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I mean, if I was going to look for the Dodgers here, really instead of laying the 1.75 and 1.80, because you kind of alluded to the fact that… And you’ve talked about this, that this Dodger bullpen is not trustworthy. They have certain men out. They have just a group that I don’t really want to get involved with.

Jeff Nadu:

And look. If you’re MLB betting this game, you’re going and looking at Gonsolin and saying, “Oh, all right. Well, 6-0. Under two ERAs been terrific, and I want to bet against Johnny Cueto.” That’s what you’re looking at here.

Jeff Nadu:

You’re not looking at this and saying, “Oh, I got to bet this game because the Dodger bullpen’s so good.” This is a stone cold first five play. I’d probably just lay the half a run.

Jeff Nadu:

Look, if Gonsolin doesn’t have to lead after five against Cueto, you just chalk it up. They didn’t hit yesterday. You’d have to figure the Dodgers will be ready to go today. I think this is a good run line on the first five minus a half.

Jeff Nadu:

You’re probably going to lay 1.20 here. Very solid. If they don’t have to lead after five, so be it.

Jeff Nadu:

I’d bet Gonsolin a couple first fives. I, like you, am not as convinced on this Dodger bullpen as maybe some people are. That would be the way I would look to this one here. Especially after no runs yesterday from the Dodgers.

TC Martin:

You know, it’s funny you say that, Jeff, because that was my mindset. Exactly what you said.

TC Martin:

And guys, I don’t play the props like that. I don’t do the first five, and I’ll tell you why. Not that it’s bad or anything, but I can’t get behind making a play where it is not the ultimate team goal. Nobody cares.

TC Martin:

That manager doesn’t care. The players don’t care. They don’t care what the score is after five innings, you know? And that’s why you don’t get involved in stuff like that. And perfect example, like last night. You handicapped that game perfectly, Jeff, last night, and you had the winner, but they scored four runs in the sixth instead of the fifth.

TC Martin:

And I looked at this game, and I said exactly what you said. I like Gonsolin. I don’t like Cueto. I mean, the Dodgers are probably going to get off the [inaudible 00:16:35] here early. This makes a lot of sense.

TC Martin:

I did not look at the line, so I don’t know what I would be laying here, but I am very tempted to go with that, even though I just don’t make those kind of plays. Base Winner?

Mark Borchard:

Well, I’m going to call BS on the teams not wanting to win at the five anymore. I mean, what do they… They’re not playing…

TC Martin:

They’re not jumping up and down, brother.

Mark Borchard:

[crosstalk 00:16:56] We’re just going to half-ass it…

TC Martin:

[inaudible 00:16:57] beer afterward afterward. After five.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, but they are. The goal is to have… You want to get out to a good start. Look, if you’re not going to be up after five innings… Look, I’m not going to say you can’t win the game, but listen, TC. I like you, but I think that’s a wild statement to make.

Jeff Nadu:

Look, at the end of the day, I think we…

TC Martin:

It’s true, Jeff. They don’t care. They don’t care if they’re up by five.

Jeff Nadu:

I guarantee.

TC Martin:

There’s no strategy in that. The players and managers don’t have strategy that correlates to that.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, but again, that’s like saying that NBA players or college… Maybe occasionally a team won’t play well in the first half. They’re sluggish or whatever, but I don’t think that’s a foregone conclusion every night.

Jeff Nadu:

I guarantee if you look up all the good teams in baseball, the Yankees, the Mets, all these teams. Their first five lead after their first five is very high. I mean, that’s…

TC Martin:

You’re probably right. You know, you’re probably right about that. Again, I’m going from just, you know…

Mark Borchard:

I will say though, TC, if there’s one team that would be victim of this, it would be this nonchalant Dodger team. That I think that they kind of have that in the back of their mind that, “Oh, we’re so good that we can kind of half-ass it for the first five innings.”

Mark Borchard:

But I think, for the most part, I think everybody’s trying to be their best all the time. But if there’s one team, maybe it would be that Dodger team.

TC Martin:

All right, guys, I’m doing it. I’m going in today, okay? Change my bet. I’m not going full game. I’m going first five. I’m dipping into the pool. I’m going into the deep end for the first time. I’m going to do it. That’s it.

TC Martin:

I want the first five, because I want Gonsolin. Think about Gonsolin, guys. I mean, we knew the Dodgers would probably have two all-star pitchers. At the beginning of the year, we thought probably Kershaw and [inaudible 00:18:39]. Somebody, right?

TC Martin:

Not Tony Gonsolin and Anderson. Those are going to be the all-star pitchers. They’ve been the two best pitchers for the Dodgers here. Gonsolin, 6-0. ERA 159. Batting average opponents against Gonsolin: 159, as well too. Four starts this year. This guy has not given up a single run. He’s never given up more than two in any game.

TC Martin:

And Johnny Cueto, guys. Real quick. I mean, the last two starts, eight runs, 16 hits. And here’s another thing. The Dodgers, they know Johnny Cueto. They faced him 11 times in the last three seasons.

TC Martin:

So yeah, I think the Dodgers do get off to a good start. I’ll give it a shot. I’ll like the Dodgers.

Jeff Nadu:

I will say one thing I’m kind of surprised that you didn’t just play it through in the beginning, due to the fact that you spent the first five minutes telling us how the Dodger bullpen sucks.

TC Martin:

Exactly.

Jeff Nadu:

And you don’t want to play him. I will say, I was really… I had wondered about Gonsolin a little bit. You look at this game log, right? Lot of Colorado, Cincinnati, Arizona, Pittsburgh. [inaudible 00:19:47] Arizona three times, but I got to tell you, that last performance against the Mets was pretty special. I mean six innings, two hits. Doesn’t give up Only one walk, five strikeouts. Impressive.

TC Martin:

All right. Base Winner, your thoughts? You like a total in this game?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I’m going to play the over here, and I have it priced at 8.7 runs, but one of the things this particular model doesn’t take into account at this particular time is the weather factor here, and I think that this is a big part of my over handicap.

Mark Borchard:

We’re going to have high humidity in Chicago, and I’ve used this to pretty good success so far in the last couple weeks. And the thought with the humidor, taking water out of the ball when the days are humid. And the other thing that we’re having here is we’re going to have some wind blowing out to, it looks like, right center field and some wind gusts.

Mark Borchard:

One of the things that I’ve worked on over the last few years is a weather condition model, and as I incorporated plate, discipline statistics into it – and without getting into it, because it’s kind of deep machine learning and that sort of thing that we used – it looks like there’s going to be a 20% increase in walks divided by strikeouts in this game, and that’s kind of a go-to stat for me.

Mark Borchard:

And I look at Gonsolin, and I’m looking at a 1.59 ERA, which is really good, but if you look at his base winner ERA, and this is just strikeout percentage, walk percentage, and ground ball rate. I think three things that we can all agree that the pitcher has a lot of control over.

Mark Borchard:

And his base winner ERA is 3.7, so it’s not as impressive. He does strike out batters 20% greater than an average starting pitcher, but he also has 8% greater walks in a starting pitcher. His BBK, 0.35. League average is 0.40.

Mark Borchard:

And then you had mentioned, Jeff and TC, the Dodger bullpen. I think that there’s some concerning things about this Dodger bullpens, particularly in the last 30 days. We’re used to seeing this Dodger bullpen, at least from a expected walk strike and strikeout standpoint, being in that top 10, maybe even in the top five level.

Mark Borchard:

And if you look at the rank, and this is just on swinging strike percentage and balls divided by pitches, last 30 days, 17th in baseball. And I think that’s a little bit concerning about that Dodger bullpen.

Mark Borchard:

And then you look at the White Sox bullpen. That’s worse. They’re 29th in baseball, out of 30 teams. So I think that there’s a lot of good reasons to look at an over here and that’s kind of the way I’m going to go over 8.5, TC.

TC Martin:

Okay. And I think that is the first time that we have a… What’d you say, Mark? Usually, it’s a due theory because a pitcher has pitched well or a hitter’s been in a little slump. He’s due. Mark is saying that the humidor due theory is in effect in this game.

TC Martin:

There you go. I love it!

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, if this humidor works the way it’s designed to, these humid days, you’re going to get higher run scoring on the humid days. Just to break it down from a from simplicity standpoint.

TC Martin:

There it is. Okay.

TC Martin:

All right. So we’re locked in. I’m locked in with the Dodgers, and then Base Winner’s got the over 8.5 In this game.

TC Martin:

Next up, guys: Phillies and Milwaukee. Aaron Nola going for the Phils today. Adrian Houser going for Milwaukee. Two teams going in opposite directions right now. Philly’s on fire since the managerial change. Won five in a row. Brewers have lost four in a row.

TC Martin:

Philly, because of that $1.26 road favorite in this game, total is eight shaded towards the over at -115.

TC Martin:

Guys, I don’t think that two, three, even four weeks ago, this line would be where it is. It would be Milwaukee would be the $1.26 home favorite, or probably even higher than that. So a little bit strange. Just goes to show you where we’re at with this right now. Base winner, this is your game. Fire away.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I’m going to play the first five innings here. It was an interesting finish to that game last night with Philadelphia hitting two home runs off Hader, and Hader hadn’t allowed a run, I think, since July of last year. July 21st of last year. But you got to give it up to Philadelphia bats last night, and that’s one of the reasons that I’m playing this game. I think we get an advantage with the Philadelphia bats. I’m going to go with Philadelphia. Let me explain exactly what I’m going to do.

Mark Borchard:

I’m going to go with Philadelphia in the first five innings, -135. For that first five inning price, I’ve got a -197 for the Phillies. And we talked about the offense. We got an offensive edge here. A 109 projected weighted runs created plus for Philly, and the Brewers are only at 102.

Mark Borchard:

And one of the things that I’m taking a hard look at right now is these teams’ plate discipline as measured by walks divided by strikeouts. And if you look at Philadelphia, they’re 9th in baseball in that department, so I think that’s super impressive, while you take a look at the Brewers. They’re 23rd in baseball.

Mark Borchard:

And I just wanted to talk about Aaron Nola, and I kind of think he’s getting disrespected in the NL Cy Young market. I mean, he’s at 30-1, and there’s like five or six guys in front of him. But if you look at the… Actually, this is just raw statistics. Strikeout statistics, He’s only five strikeouts behind Corbin Burnes. And then, according to my base winner ERA, he’s 4th in baseball. 2.42 base winner ERA.

Mark Borchard:

We talked about the last game with Gonsolin having a lower regular ERA than a sabermetric ERA, and this is the opposite.

Mark Borchard:

This is where you get Nola, where you look at his regular ERA at 3.92, and you say, “Well, that’s not that great.” But then, if you look at the ERA on things that he can control: strikeout percentage, walk, percentage, ground ball rate. He’s at 2.42, 4th in baseball.

Mark Borchard:

I think that if you guys want to look at a Cy Young market, 30-1 on Aaron Nola is a nice price. And this is a nice price, as well, on this game. First five innings, we’re going to go with Philly here, TC.

TC Martin:

Okay. Jeff, we’ve talked a lot about this Phillies team. You followed pretty closely here. The narrative definitely has changed. I just wonder, has it changed there in Philly where people are now really behind this team?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, but I [inaudible 00:26:19] we had learn about Philadelphia is over the last 10 to 20 years, this fan base has become very soft, really outside of the Eagles.

Jeff Nadu:

It seems like when the Phillies are down, the fan base will be very pessimistic. When they’re up after five wins in a row, it’s up. They can go to the playoffs. It’s going to be the time when we remember it. But yeah, definitely there’s positivity, but that’s just the softness of this fan base now.

Jeff Nadu:

This game, I don’t know. I’m not a big Nola guy. I know Mark is. I’m not. His big and terrific strikeout, as in the Brewers have been poor.

Jeff Nadu:

But again, it’s interesting that he mentioned the first five. That’s how I’d look at it. I don’t know how you could trust the Phillies long term. Even look at that game last night. I mean, Corey Knebel had the bases loaded after three straight walks. He makes one bad pitch, they lose that game.

Jeff Nadu:

So you look at how they won too. They needed two home runs. Not one, but two home runs against Hader is astronomical. That never happens, and look at who hit them, Bohm and Vierling.

Jeff Nadu:

Vierling was just in the Minors two days ago. Yeah, I don’t hate this price, quite frankly, on Milwaukee, but I didn’t play it ultimate.

TC Martin:

Yeah. To me, it’s kind of tough to play, and like you said, it just goes to show you, if any hitter can connect with a fastball, they can barrel up. With that Hader fastball, it’s going to go, and yeah. He’s got great stuff, but crazy the way a lot of this stuff plays out. So we’re going to lock Base Winner in for the winner here. Root him on as he’ll take the Phillies in the first five to jump out to that early lead at -135.

TC Martin:

All right, guys. Finally, let’s take a look at San Francisco and Colorado back at it again tonight. The Rockies got a road win last night, and Antonio Senzatela going against Alex Wood. And the Giants, a big favorite here. 2.15 Rockies plus 1.85. Total in this game, kind of a high one, as well too, at nine there in that park there in San Francisco in a night game, -120, though, towards the under.

TC Martin:

Jeff, you were on this game last night. Give us some thoughts on last night’s game, and then again today.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I’ll admit, though, I actually played this game at 8.5. Unfortunately, we have to go with whatever the number is today, but at nine, I think that’s a strong indication that this is going to be a high scoring game.

Jeff Nadu:

As you mentioned, when you put nines in AT&T park, I think they still call that… That’s a strong indication. You’re going to have some runs in this game.

Jeff Nadu:

You look at these two teams. Two of the better over teams in baseball, and again, in a year where under half the teams have gone over for the season, that’s a pretty good indication. Two bad bullpens here.

Jeff Nadu:

I talked about yesterday. Two straight days, the Rockies are facing a lefty. Put up five runs last night. Look, this is a group that hits almost 300 against lefthanded pitching. They have an over 800 OPS against lefties.

Jeff Nadu:

This team is very favorable against lefthanders. You look at the Giants last night, didn’t do much offensive. You still put up three though. I have to think they’re going to score some runs today against Senzatela who… You look at in his starts. I mean, it’s hard to talk about Senzatela. And this guy’s pitched, what? Eight games. He only has 14 strikeouts in eight games. I mean, think about that. That’s a wild number.

Jeff Nadu:

Opponents have destroyed this guy. He’s gotten, I think, a little lucky that he hasn’t had worse numbers, quite honestly. He just continues to balloon into balloon into balloon.

Jeff Nadu:

You look at his last start, guys. Get to Miami. Five and a third, 13 hits, six earn runs, opponents at 401 off them. Yikes, not great.

Jeff Nadu:

I think there’s a high scoring game. I think this is 8.6, or something. I think it’s a high scoring game. Over.

TC Martin:

You talk about stadium names here. I still like to refer to this place as, as Pac Bell Park, when it opened. Then it went to AT&T. Now it’s Oracle, Jeff.

TC Martin:

So yeah, they took the Oracle from Oakland, moved it over to San Francisco. It’s hard to keep track of those. I don’t even know is, is Chase Field still Chase Field of base winner?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah.

TC Martin:

Thank goodness. Yeah, it’s…

Mark Borchard:

It used to be called Bank One Ballpark, and everybody referred to it as the BOB, which I liked, but…

TC Martin:

There’s another one. Yeah, yeah.

Mark Borchard:

Then the banks merged and they changed it, so…

TC Martin:

Unbelievable. Base Winner, what do you think here?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I mean, I guess if you have to play this game, the over is not a bad idea. Jeff, let me ask you a question. Why did you just not go with the Giants team total over here?

Jeff Nadu:

Well, I think for me, and that’s obviously a great way to look at it… I just really, and I’ve talked about my continued love for the Rockies, particularly against lefthanded pitching.

Jeff Nadu:

I think they’re very effective. I hate both bullpens equally, so I just wanted to surplus it and get both, but I think, at the end of the day, I don’t think that’s a bad way to look at it. I just want both offenses against each other, ’cause I don’t trust either pitcher or either bullpen.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I’m with you with Senzatela. He’s last, as far as strikeout percentage, on the base winner chart. Maybe Senzatela is smoking a little bit of [sinsemilla 00:31:35]. I don’t know.

Mark Borchard:

5.61 base winner ERA, and let me see where that ranks. 171st out of 192 pitchers. I think that, if you play it, you go with the San Francisco team.

Mark Borchard:

Their league average is a little bit better than league average, as far as barrel rate. They’re 11th, and I think their plate metrics when I just looked at it were 17th out of 30th. So at worst, you get an average team against Senzatela and the Colorado bullpen, which, they’re not lighting anybody up. That’s for sure.

Mark Borchard:

And yeah. that’s how that’s how I’d play. If I wanted to play a total, I’d go with the Giants over.

TC Martin:

All right. Lock Jeff in. He’s on this game from the over standpoint. Even money, as well too, with that total at nine.

TC Martin:

All right, guys, let’s go to the questions. Feel free to hit us real quick here on the message board, the chatroom here, and we’ll hit all your questions here on the MLB Show. Love to hear from you.

TC Martin:

Of course, Monday through Friday, we do this as you know, at 12 noon. Make sure you like, subscribe to the show, and remember hit that bell. You’ll get the notifications when we go live here, and also, follow us individually on Twitter, but also, more importantly here at BetUS TV on the Twitter page.

TC Martin:

Dirty Deeds. Our good friend, Dirty Deeds. Probably with the best name here on the show. Mariners and Astros… He wants some thoughts there.

Jeff Nadu:

Real quick. I probably shouldn’t bring this up, but do you know who Dirty Deeds actually is? Not the commenter, but do you know who that is actually?

TC Martin:

Who is that, Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Okay, again…

TC Martin:

You brought it up.

Mark Borchard:

You brought it up.

TC Martin:

[crosstalk 00:33:23]

Jeff Nadu:

Dirty Deeds is a really disgusting porn star. He’s this guy that just does some really disgusting porn. Just saying.

TC Martin:

Hence the name.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. He’s takes… He goes to like feeders and stuff. Not a… I don’t know if that’s where this guy got his name, but…

TC Martin:

So either, Jeff, you’re hanging out with Dirty Deeds, or you’re watching a lot of porn. What are you trying to say here, man?

Jeff Nadu:

Oh, no. I’m a porn cop, you know. As a 32-year-old male, I grew up on downloading that. That’s just how it goes.

Jeff Nadu:

But that being said, this game, it’s a tough one. Anytime the Houston Astros… [inaudible 00:34:04] right? Houston?

TC Martin:

Yeah. Houston, Seattle

Jeff Nadu:

Anytime Houston plays, you look under the total. I mean, Houston, 40 and 16 to the under. 71.4% under… That’s pretty incredible, but Urquidy, he’s kind of the weak link of the Astros, to me, pitching-wise, especially coming off the Verlander. I figured he wanted under, you wanted to play yesterday. I don’t have much on this one. I stayed away ultimately.

TC Martin:

Base?

Mark Borchard:

It was a tough call for me. I mean, my model says that there’s value with Seattle. I have it right about even. I’ve got it at Houston minus 103, but you know, there was some conflicting numbers with Urquidy. 68 percentile stuff plus numbers, so he bests Logan Gilbert in that regard.

Mark Borchard:

And then as far as playing against the Astros, I’m kind of reticent to play against the Astros, unless I really like it. I liked it the other day. I thought we had a pretty good edge there, but Houston, last 14 days, their offensive BBK is second in baseball.

Mark Borchard:

I kind of don’t want to get in front of that train, even though my model will indicate that there’s a little bit of value with Seattle. So for me, I’m just going to go ahead and pass on this game.

TC Martin:

Yeah. I know the Astros want to win this series. They put a big emphasis on winning series, especially against these division opponents, and it’s only 1.30.

TC Martin:

The only thing that I don’t like about this game is I can’t Urquidy’s start out of my head against Seattle last time where he got bombed. I mean, six runs, 12 hits. They hit him pretty good.

TC Martin:

And again, the Mariners had their chances even against Verlander last night where Verlander got on a couple jams as well, too. So this game to me, it could go either way, and I don’t mind Logan Gilbert that much either as well too. But yeah.

TC Martin:

If I had a slight lean, maybe towards the Astros. They win two out of three at home. Again, the bats… You’re getting some great production from Alvarez and Tucker from the left side.

TC Martin:

But man, Bregman is struggling. He started to snap out of it little bit of a last night. Gurriel may get a day off today because he’s been struggling.

TC Martin:

So yeah, kind of a tough call, but if you do like the Astros, you’re only laying 1.30, so that’s pretty good.

TC Martin:

There we go. So we found out that I am a hot dog and a ice tea connoisseur, and Jeff’s a porn connoisseur. That’s what we found out.

Jeff Nadu:

No, I’m not. I’m not a porn connoisseur, okay?

Jeff Nadu:

Look when you’re a 22-year-old kid, everybody likes porn… But no, I’m not a porn connoisseur.

Mark Borchard:

I think a lot of people like porn, even if you’re a 52-year-old adult.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. You know…

Mark Borchard:

Just saying,

Jeff Nadu:

You got to remember, I lived in the age of like…

TC Martin:

This is a guy’s show, right?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I lived in the age of like…

Mark Borchard:

Women can watch it too. They can enjoy it.

Jeff Nadu:

It would take forever to download porn. Once you got one, we didn’t have the fingertip kind of thing that people have now. We downloaded it.

Jeff Nadu:

But yeah, no, I’m not a porn connoisseur. I would consider myself a mafia connoisseur. I like certain other things, but no, I’m not. I that’s just where I remember the name Dirty Deeds from.

Jeff Nadu:

“Dirty Deeds coming to you from a goddamn porn theater.” That’s what he used to say. No, I’m serious. He used to say that.

Mark Borchard:

That’s way too much information, but that’s all right.

TC Martin:

[inaudible 00:37:18] who Dirty Deeds is. And Dirty Deeds, when you chime back in on the chatroom, you can either say, “Yeah, that’s me” or “That’s not me.” Or you can comment, Dirty Deeds. I’m sure we’re all waiting for that.

Jeff Nadu:

How about this? To get off this conversation, I’m going to just quickly want to mention the red Sox and Angels. Okay? I backed this Red Sox team the last couple of nights. The reason I didn’t go back to them, and well, and I probably should. I should probably play the Red Sox until they lose.

Jeff Nadu:

This number kind of got a hand on me a little bit. I know that the Red Sox been good, but if you look at the number yesterday compared to today, I’m getting 1.30. Now I’m looking at a 1.60.

Jeff Nadu:

Reid Detmers. I’m not going to say there’s a lot to write home with him about, even though he did throw a no-hitter. He hasn’t been that good outside of that. This Red Sox team has scored five or more runs and five in the last six games. They have the second best road offense in the entire MLB.

Jeff Nadu:

This is a good offense, and they’re facing a lefty, who they generally destroy. I thought about a team total over 4.5 here, but I don’t know. Maybe I’ll revisit it. I didn’t ultimately play it though.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Eovaldi, for me, is still one of those guys that I get kind of hesitant playing him, but his numbers have been pretty good. Real quick, Base Winner, before we move to the next game, you got any thoughts on this pitching matchup?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I was close to making a plan Eovaldi. I had it at -172, and I think it was -160. So for me, that’s a kind of pool that I want to avoid, if possible.

Mark Borchard:

But yeah, he’s been really good. 84, just his underlying his stuff numbers. 84 percentile, and good location too. That’s really hard to see, good stuff and location at the same time.

Mark Borchard:

And he’s 97th percentile in location, 98th percentile overall, so I don’t think I’d hesitate if I had an inclination to play the Red Sox. To play them… In the back of your mind, you have, “Well, maybe the Angels get this this dead cap bounce theory after firing Maddon.”

Mark Borchard:

But I mean, how, how did that work out for him last night?Blowing a 5-3 lead. Anyway, for me, it’s just a little bit too high, but, I’m a huge fan of Eovaldi, personally.

Jeff Nadu:

Also, and TC, you mentioned this, you’re also taking Mike Trout out of the lineup. I mean, Mike Trout is their best hitter, as we know. 284, 14 home runs. Got the best OBP, the most hits on this team. This is already a team that is not good offensively. You take him out, Ohtani’s been struggling. Yeah, no interest.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Rendon’s been gone. That heart of the order is decimated. I mean, no question.

TC Martin:

A-Rod wants some thoughts on the Cardinals and Rays.

Jeff Nadu:

A-Rod?

TC Martin:

Thinks it might be an under with this one.

TC Martin:

I actually looked really hard at this game, and I wanted to pull the trigger on the Rays here today but didn’t do it. I liked him last night, too, and they got the job done. Base Winner, any thoughts on this game?

Mark Borchard:

I think he wanted to know about the total. I’ve got it priced at 7.1. It hard to tell. I’ve got… And in the model, I have it at a bullpen day for St. Louis and normally…

TC Martin:

Packy Naughton. There’s our name. Packy.

Mark Borchard:

There’s the guy, [Southey 00:40:30] from Boston, the mobster.

Mark Borchard:

I think that Jeff went into that. He’s like “This guy’s got to be a mobster.” But they’re going to go with a bullpen day is kind of the way I have it handicapped, and Kluber. He’s at 66th percentile stuff, plus 68th percentile location, plus, I think if you did play the total under, it would be the way to go, as opposed to going over hard hit barrel rates.

Mark Borchard:

If you look at Tampa Bay and St. Louis, they’re both down at the bottom of the league, and that’s surprising because St. Louis, you would think that they would have higher hard hit metrics, but they’re at 6.2% barrel percentage, 24th in baseball, and that ties them with Tampa Bay, so I think that if you want to play the under, I would say that would be the way to go.

Mark Borchard:

If just had that one bet to make, I got to play the total here. I’m playing that.

TC Martin:

It’s hard for me to back an under when you’re going with a bullpen day. When you know you’re going to get probably four or five pitchers in this game, it’s just hard to do. But I’ll tell you what, who’s going for the pitcher? Today’s going for Tampa Bay today.

Jeff Nadu:

Kluber

TC Martin:

Duh. Kluber has been good, and I’ll tell you who else has been good who’s going today too, is Bieber has been good as well, too. Both those guys have been good as of recently.

TC Martin:

And I looked at both taking a shot at Cleveland and Tampa Bay today, just because those guys have been back on track. But anyway, some thoughts.

TC Martin:

Jeff? Thoughts on either one of those games?

Jeff Nadu:

No, I don’t have much on Tampa and St. Louis. I like St. Louis, just I’m not really interested in Packy Naughton. Just not really interested in this game.

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t want to go all over the place, but Arizona-Cincinnati is a fascinating game here. I mean, these are obviously two bad teams, but you see something in this game I can’t say I’ve seen much of this year.

Jeff Nadu:

This total opened eight and a half. It’s up to 10, okay? Now you have to ask yourself, Merrill Kelly’s pitching. He’s been solid. The arrows in a diamond [inaudible 00:42:44] hitting two 13 against lefties. Bad offense, right?

Jeff Nadu:

But these bullpens, these teams just go over the number. This is a strong indication there’s going to be some runs in this game, and when we look at that fact, Mike Minor, who you haven’t seen much of this year, but he’s been a disaster and has been a disaster for a while.

Jeff Nadu:

You have to figure, Arizona. You have to have maybe some interest in them tonight. You’d have to think they’re going to get to Minor a little bit.

Jeff Nadu:

If I ask the audience, “Who’s more likely to give runs up here in a high scoring game?”, it’s likely to be minor. You got an advantage, I think, with Kelly. So, you know, bet even money on Arizona. I don’t think it’s a bad play. I’ve been going back and forth on it.

TC Martin:

Okay. All right, guys, let’s take a look at our best bets here. We wrap it up here on a Midweek Wednesday Edition here of the MLB Specials Show.

TC Martin:

Jeff’s going with the over in the Colorado-San Francisco game at even money, rooting for runs there. Nine between the Rocks and the Giants.

TC Martin:

Base Winner, Dodgers-White Sox, over 8.5 in that one. He likes the Phillies first five in this game at -135.

TC Martin:

I like the Yankees. Going to continue to ride Nestor Cortes against Chris Archer in this game. And then the Dodgers. Thinking they are going to get back on the winning track here against Johnny Cueto and the White Sox.

TC Martin:

All right, guys. Good stuff here today. Remember, like and subscribe the show, like and subscribe here to, not just the MLB Show, but BetUS TV as well, too. All kinds of great shows on BetUS TV, including the NBA Show. So make sure you tune into that as well too, because we’ve got game three tonight between the Boston Celtics and the Golden State Warriors.

TC Martin:

Jeff, I know, like me, you’re a hoop guy. Quick thoughts on that game tonight?

Jeff Nadu:

You know, I think it’s a tough game. I have an intuition at this point. This is probably going to go seven this year. I think it’s very close, back and forth. I think we’ll split it in Boston. Golden State goes back and wins game five.

Jeff Nadu:

I think it’s a game. It’s a seven game series, but Scott Foster’s reffing tonight, and it’s sad that we have to mention this, but the last time Scott Foster… I can’t remember the last time Boston lost when Scott Foster was the ref. Disgraceful, pathetic that we have to bring that up. But it’s just the truth of the matter.

Jeff Nadu:

I like Golden State, but the 12 or 13 in a row, Boston has with Scott Foster as a ref is hard to go against.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Base Winner, are you going to be watching some basketball tonight?

Mark Borchard:

You know, I’ll tune it and I’ve got a series bet on the Celtics, but there’s so much good baseball on. Why would you want to watch the NBA Finals, in my opinion?

TC Martin:

Well, guys, I’m going to give you some other good TV watching tonight too. And I know you guys won’t want to bet on it because the line is astronomical, but tonight: College Women’s Softball World Series. If you haven’t seen Oklahoma yet, this team is 52-2. Jocelyn Alo, the all-time home run queen of women’s softball, came over from Hawaii. She’s got a great story. Senior at Oklahoma, phenomenal, has hit more homers in softball’s history. She is over 30 homers again, this season. Oklahoma against Texas tonight, a battle. Best two out of three.

Mark Borchard:

What’s the line on it, TC?

TC Martin:

Something to watch tonight. What’s that?

Mark Borchard:

You know what the line is?

TC Martin:

Minus 500.

Mark Borchard:

Oh, that’s right up your alley. You should jump on it.

TC Martin:

I already parlayed this game to the Astros from last night, so there you go.

Mark Borchard:

I had to take a shot at you, buddy.

TC Martin:

Yeah. So women’s college softball, good stuff. And then I know you guys don’t like the base runner on second base, in [X 00:46:28] journeys, but that’s where it originated. Remember that.

Mark Borchard:

Oh god, I can hardly way ’til that disappears.

TC Martin:

All right. Appreciate everyone for joining us. We’re back at it again tomorrow. I think Jeff’s got a load management date.

Jeff Nadu:

No, I’m here.

Jeff Nadu:

Friday,

TC Martin:

Friday. Okay, here it is. All right.

TC Martin:

Let’s check our scorecards on that one, and hopefully we have some winners for everybody tomorrow again, and we’ll look at tonight’s games, as well too.

TC Martin:

For the MLB Show, for the Base Winner and Jeff Nadu, TC Martin saying so long. Have yourself a good one. Enjoy. Continue watching all the shows here and BetUS TV. We’re back at it again 12 noon Eastern tomorrow.

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