MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Baseball Betting Odds [Wednesday September 21st]

Scott Spreitzer:

I’m doing well. I saw the parade. I wasn’t able to make it down there, but I just wanted to say, TC, since I haven’t seen you face-to-face, although we’ve been texting since it happened, congrats. For those who might be watching the show for the first time ever, TC Martin, of course, the voice of the Las Vegas Aces who just wrapped up the WNBA championship. And I saw you at the back of the pickup on the news throwing souvenirs out to the crowd down on the Strip and enjoying your time.

So, listen, I know we’re here to talk baseball, but I wanted to say congrats because you’ve been calling those teams’ games for quite a while now and it’s pretty cool to see that bring Las Vegas a professional championship.

TC Martin:

I appreciate. As I tell everyone, Scott, I did not make any buckets or make any defensive stops.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yes. But you know what-

TC Martin:

I appreciate that.

Scott Spreitzer:

… A’ja Wilson, all everything. Kelsey Plum, great jumper, great shot, great drives, but not one of those two ever said boom shakalaka this entire season during the game like you did.

TC Martin:

There you go, man. I appreciate that. Yeah, a lot of fun yesterday, the parade. Thousands upon thousands packed the Las Vegas Strip yesterday. And what was so cool about that is, not only you had Mark Davis there, but you had Governor Steve Sisolak, county commissioners, and they all pulled together to pull this parade off within less than 48 hours. And for a city that’s never done that before, it’s pretty cool.

And just to see how the behind the scenes workings went with all that. And again, all the different entities just came together, the Metro Police Department. There were no issues whatsoever. It was a beautiful night, late afternoon, early evening. And it was a great celebration. And hopefully, it came across that way-

Scott Spreitzer:

It did.

TC Martin:

… on television, everything else as well, too. Yeah.

Scott Spreitzer:

It did. And you know what, I’m glad to see the ladies get the recognition they deserve. The crowds aren’t always great for these games as far as the non-playoff games are concerned. But the crowd on the Strip to celebrate was definitely there in mass. So, it was pretty cool to see.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Basewinner, what’s going on, buddy?

Mark Borchard:

Not much. Some wild games last night. I mean, you had the White Sox and nothing was a talk about a meat grinder. I mean, really.

TC Martin:

There was a disaster. It’s funny, I left the parade last night and I turned on the radio and I see they were up 3-1, then it was 3-2 and then it was 3-3. And then, I went to go get something to eat, Scott, because I have to do that.

Scott Spreitzer:

Of course.

TC Martin:

And then, I come back and the game is still going on and it’s like seven to three or something now. I go, “What happened here?” Well, of course, it’s the White Sox. I’m done with the White Sox, guys. I think I’m 0 and three on this show with the White Sox. This team makes me sick. And I think I handicapped, you’re right, Basewinner, and you saw the game, I didn’t but sounded to me like Dylan Cease fell into my handicap and that’s why I handicapped the White Sox yesterday.

But then, he comes out of the game and the air comes a bullpen and blow up city.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I mean, Cease is, he let Scott and I down last week. And he went 8-2 last week. I think I looked at the box score, and I could be wrong, but I think he had an off night. I think he was three strikeouts, three walks when I looked at it. I think the interesting thing about that game to me looking forward to the playoffs was Clase. He blew the save at the end. At the 10th inning, he blew the save.

But I looked at the play-by-play and I thought it was one of the most difficult blown saves. So I don’t like… I’m not going to give him a strike. I think he had a ground ball single. And of course, the guy starts at second base. But it was just wild, kind of like the run swings in that game and then the runs with the Yankees-Pittsburgh game. Talk about a script. I mean, really. Scott, did you see the inning of that game?

Scott Spreitzer:

I saw the highlights. I wasn’t watching the game live, but I did see the highlights later. And I got to tell you, man, because I was following a couple of other games and I thought the Yankees had lost, and then I see the final score. And of course, I go in and I watched the highlights late last night and saw what happened. And of course the 98 win in the ninth inning. But yeah, I had thought they lost.

I was looking at a couple of my apps on my phone and I’m going, “Oh, the Yankees lost.” And then, next thing I know they’re up ahead. So, it was pretty crazy. Like you said, it was scripted in the Bronx.

TC Martin:

Speaking of the Yankees, guys, Aaron Judge hits number 60 last night and the sixth player in Major League Baseball history to do that, going for Roger Maris’s team record. Now, we’re saying team record because years ago, we were saying most of any season. So, here’s a question for you, guys. Not to belabor the point too much, but do you believe that Roger Maris still holds the record? Are we anti-steroids here?

Scott Spreitzer:

I do. Yes.

TC Martin:

What are your thoughts on that?

Scott Spreitzer:

I do. To me, I’m kind of in there with like “Mad Dog” Chris Russo. One of my favorite shows is his baseball show every morning, which I’ve talked about before. I at least try to record it, watch it later in the day. There’s some good interviews and good stuff on there. To me, it’s Roger Maris at 61. If you want to put Barry Bonds in there, you want to put what Mark McGwire did in there, Sammy Sosa, please put an asterisk by it.

And don’t make it hard to find what that asterisk means on that page in the record book because I guess you got to include it. They played the games. But the steroid era, certainly, I think for at least my opinion, for me, takes away from those home runs they hit. So, for me, it is. Sixty-one is still the all-time best as far as I’m concerned, Mark.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I agree with cheating. You probably could, but I don’t think Aaron Judge is cheating drug tests. I think that he’s clean. And so, to me, in my mind, he would be the home run champ, the pure home run champ, I guess. Yeah.

TC Martin:

And the thing about this is, guys, you say, “Well, it’s in the record book, nothing you can do about it. Maybe put an asterisk.” You actually can. I mean, Major League Baseball has shown in the past that they can do whatever they want. They did it with Pete Rose. Pete Rose managed all those games, and it was later in the fact they said, “Nope.” And they are very hardcore with, “You’re never get into the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame.”

Did it with Shoeless Joe Jackson. We’ve seen them take away other records and other things that denature in the past. So, Major League Baseball, if they really wanted to, they could. And again, many people still think Pete Rose should be in the Hall of Fame because of what he did on the field, but Major League Baseball says no. I mean, they can do whatever they want to do. But I don’t think they’ve really been pushed in that direction that hard to do it.

Scott Spreitzer:

I think with Pete Rose, I think his personality ticked off a lot of the brass along the way. And not just that, but fellow teammates. We’ve heard the stories. And so, I think that’s kind of got against him, too. It was almost like, huh, got you. You know what I mean? I don’t want to put that simple. But as far as… I mean, I have no problem with Barry Bond’s numbers being in the books, but I certainly think there should be that asterisk saying what happened.

It’s probably juiced as was McGwire and Sosa. So, I don’t have a problem being in that book. I mean, Mark made a great point because like you said, there were others who obviously were juicing to a whole lot of people that were busted for juice. Donald for the Mets of all people, if I recall correctly, more than alleged-

Mark Borchard:

Donye was juicing and so those guys. So, they all were.

TC Martin:

And those are the people that we know about. There’s another probably two or three dozen that we don’t.

Mark Borchard:

I think the most important thing for me at least is how we perceive it. There’s three of us. So, we’re all pretty, I would say that we’re astute baseball guys and we all think the same way. Well, that’s in the books, those guys were juiced. This is the real number that they’re chasing. And whether it’s a technical record or not, I think that this is a magic number, guys.

Scott Spreitzer:

I think it’ll be celebrated that way, too. It might not be to the books that way, but they’re going to celebrate when he gets to 62. Hopefully, he will. They’re going to celebrate that, so it’s the best.

Mark Borchard:

It’s a big deal, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

It is. Yup.

Mark Borchard:

I mean, 61 and 61 is still what I remember. I don’t remember 73 and, oh, okay, I have to look it up in 2001, this guy who was GH and juiced up. It’s like, okay, well, whatever, he did it. But I hold that record.

Scott Spreitzer:

That’s a great point. Because if you asked me, would Barry hit that, I’d be guessing around that time because we know when the steroid era was really coming through. So, I would’ve guessed somewhere in about a three-year timeframe. But there’s no guessing when it comes to Roger Maris, and he’d 61 home runs. That’s like, yeah, the word that you used pure is the best way to describe it.

TC Martin:

All right, guys, let’s talk about today’s baseball games. We’re going to look at five games. But first and foremost, let’s go to the record book and give you all that as well, too. So, yeah, rough night last night for those that backed the White Sox and then also those that had the under in that game. Look like a dead under. And as Scott always likes to say, won’t bet an under with the ghost runner on second base. Boom.

What do we have about eight runs of scored after that and extra innings had that? And then, Basewinner went with the Tampa Bay last night, and the Astros continued to do it. And they were a little hungover, but they had enough to win last night, 5-0. And I mentioned McClanahan on the show yesterday. Be careful, something could be wrong with him from an injury standpoint. Sure enough, today, we find out now he’s going to miss some time for a neck injury.

Scott Spreitzer:

Stiff neck.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, that’s too bad. They pulled him right out of the game. They saw something and they didn’t even wait. They’re like, “Hey,” and he was having problems. Look, you talk about a… I look at the numbers and you look at McClanahan’s numbers and they screamed Cy Young. But Javier looked like the Cy Young guy last night. He was amazing, and the stuff really supported the strikeouts. I mean, he was fooling guys.

We talked about this, TC, on the show about his ceiling. So, he’s got a high ceiling. It’s just a matter of he’s fairly inconsistent. He’s got those location issues. But gosh, when he’s good, he’s really tough to hit, TC.

TC Martin:

No, he has just improved. Like I mentioned yesterday, this is a guy that really, again, has learned how to pitch. And he’s gotten better and better as time has gone on. He was thrown into the fire in that 2020 season when the Astros were depleted with pitching injuries. And look what he’s done. And I think I rolled off the stats yesterday, especially his last, what, a 13, 14 starts.

We would be talking about him in the same vein as Framber Valdez as far as consecutive quality starts. But he had a couple starts where he only went five and not because he got blown up, he just doesn’t go that many innings. But no, like I said, he’s the third best pitcher. And when you look at the top three pitchers that the Astros have with Verlander, Valdez and Javier, one, two, three, that’s going to be a formidable rotation come postseason time.

So, I love Javier. He was good again yesterday. And again, I’m not trying to say I’m a savant or something with this, but I talked about Frankie Montas. We knew that there was a shoulder injury. No one was saying nothing about it. You could just see the way he was pitching. Boom, that gets announced yesterday. Talked about McClanahan yesterday, something was wrong with him. Boom, that comes out yesterday as well, too.

So, really take a look at this stuff or listen to what we’re saying here, not just me. But I think we watch enough baseball and we look at these stat lines and we see the guys are missing starts or they’re pulled out early.

Scott Spreitzer:

Strike out ratios that drop off the cliff. Strike out ratios that drop off the cliff out of nowhere sometime. When I see that, I start looking to see if there was… but I also say, we talk about it on the show, you got to go beyond the box score. And boy, that sounds like a good name for a title of a show. What do you think, guys? Beyond the box score. But anyway, yeah, there you go. I’m sitting there thinking, I see these guys… we saw McClanahan look uncomfortable in his previous starts last night.

And then, of course, now we find out he’s got a stiff neck. He’s got a little neck issue going on. And we’ll see if he misses time or just misses a starter too because they want to save him for the postseason. But you saw Montas, it was talked about before he got traded by Oakland writers. And if you’re really serious about what we’re doing, it goes beyond the statistics. It goes beyond the metrics.

You really got to pay attention, look and see when guys’ numbers are kind of weird when they all of a sudden fall off a cliff and their pitchers are used to seeing do well. And we saw what’s going on with Montas. The Yankees had to know it. I mean, we all knew it. We read about it by the Oakland writers that Montas isn’t 100% healthy. Next thing you know, the Yankees are trading for him and they got a damaged good, so to speak.

So, same thing with McClanahan. We saw where he had the issue a couple of starts ago, and they were saying he’s fine. And anybody who backed him, I don’t blame him whatsoever because the numbers say he should have been backed last night if you were going to play that game. And I’m looking at that and I’m saying the only reason I couldn’t is because I got to see this guy pitch without any issues. And he had issues the prior game.

As far as Javier, I just wanted to throw this out there, the storyline between… I mean, not between, but the storyline of Javier and Framber Valdez, that’s an interesting stuff. We talked about Valdez a few weeks ago, where he came from, where he was drafted, what he became. The regime right before Dusty got there just really developed Framber Valdez, and then Dusty took it to another level, his crew. And now we’re seeing the same thing with Javier.

I mean, these guys weren’t guys that you would think would come out and dominate when they first started making their way to the bigs.

TC Martin:

Yeah, yeah. Luis Garcia is another one of those guys in that same realm. They all came up together. All right, guys, let’s take a look at today’s game. Speaking of pitching, we’ll start off with the Mets and the Brewers today. And the New York Mets a dollar 25 favorite. The totalness win, eight and a half minus 120 towards the oversight here. Taijuan Walker going for the Mets, been pretty good as of late. Adrian Houser, on the flip side, hasn’t been.

Mets have won six in a row. Milwaukee continues to slide here. And I do like the Mets in this situation, but for some reason, guys, I don’t know, I’m just a little hesitant about pulling the trigger here. I’ve never really been much of a Walker guy, but I’ll give him credit. I mean, he has pitched very well this season. And again, this is more of a play probably against Houser and the Brewers who continue to slide here.

And for me, the Mets came back last night. They fell behind early. Lindor hit the grand slam. And I’m just hesitant, I guess, because of the comeback here. I know they should continue to roll in this game because these are two teams that are really going in opposite directions. Houser stinks. He gave up four earned runs, five overall, but four of them were earned in his last start on Friday. And he only lasted three innings.

So, Mets at another short price here today. Do you guys believe that the win streak can’t continue, Basewinner?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, this one is a tough game for me from a side standpoint, TC. What I like here is the total. So, I think if he get involved in this game, and is this the BetUS game of the day? Is that what we’re talking about this one?

TC Martin:

That’s right. It is.

Mark Borchard:

Okay. All right. So, since it is a BetUS game of the day, you may want to consider playing me over here. I’ve got to price at 9.8 runs. The Basewinner number for Taijuan Walker is 13% worse than average. And I’ve got Houser at 29% worse than average. You look at the team offense for the Mets, they’re sixth in baseball.

And I think one of the things that was concerning when I was looking at Milwaukee’s bullpen yesterday is they are second worst in baseball in home runs per nine. And I didn’t think that that would be a number that you would see Milwaukee at. Because you got the Cubs at number one, you got the Angels at number three and the Nationals at number four. And so, that was kind of like, well, this team doesn’t belong here.

But sure enough, last night, gave up two really awful home runs and that cost them the game. So, I think that if you play it here, you go over. I don’t really like each starter. And I think that Milwaukee bullpen has some issues.

TC Martin:

Scott?

Scott Spreitzer:

I agree with this over. I also think it’s a fair price if you like the Mets, I really do. I mean, the Brewers were 57 and 45 and in first place in the NL Central on August 1st. They’re 21 and 25 since then. And they may not be in the postseason. They’re still trailing Philly by two and a half games. And Philly is on a losing streak of what, five in a row, yet they’re still two and a half ahead of Milwaukee who’s lost three in a row.

You mentioned Houser. I mean, he’s basically the reason that I would play an over if I got involved and play the Mets. He’s been so inconsistent. He’s got eight walks and only five strikeouts in his last four outings when he’s taking the mound. And he doesn’t eat up innings. So, you’re going to have a chance to get after some guys out of the pin. And meanwhile, the Mets, well, they’ve scored 37 runs during the sixth game winning streak.

The thing about Walker, I can remember when I first started doing this show with you guys back in June, we all kept saying it’s just a matter of time you would think before Walker starts to level off and start throwing the way he normally does. And I was looking at it last night, he’s had only three bad starts and 26 outings this season, and it’s crazy. I mean, he’s got a 1.14 WHIP in his last seven starts. I mean, to me, it’s a short price if you like the Mets.

And again, I do like Basewinner’s thoughts on the over. I think the Mets might get six or seven on their own. So, if you can get just three out of the other side, if you even need that by the time this game is over with, then you get that over. So, short price on the Mets. That’s the way I lean in this one, TC.

TC Martin:

Yeah, I agree with you. And again, one of the reasons why I’m not on this game is because Diaz went inning in a third. So, you’re not going to see him from the Mets. Day baseball today bodes well for over that you’re talking about, Basewinner as well too, day baseball in Milwaukee, very warm day today. Ball does fly out of that park in day games. So, I could see that as well, too. So, check the lineups and the interesting game.

Again, Mets continue to roll battling for that. They’re in the playoffs right now, but they want that division title. And they’re battling with the Braves right now. Milwaukee, fighting for their playoff lives here. And they do not look like a confident team at all. So, I definitely do not want any part of them. Another game with huge playoff implications, we talked about it in the open of the show is the Cleveland Guardians and the Chicago White Sox.

And this game tonight has the White Sox a dollar 40 favorite home. Seven and a half is the total last night minus 115. The White Sox looked good yesterday with the handicap. They look good at the beginning of the game, but then the bullpen exploded and they were money burners. I would love to play Lance Lynn today, guys. He’s going for the White Sox.

Obviously, we talk about Cease being their best pitcher, but Lance Lynn has been the best pitcher for the Chicago White Sox the past four weeks of the season. Triston McKenzie, as you know, I’m not really big on McKenzie but he has his moments. But really right now, the story for Cleveland, they’ve won 11 of the last 13 games. They are on fire right now. This is a big series for both these teams, specifically the White Sox.

They came in here trailing by four games. They wanted to get a sweep to cut this lead to one, but they need to win every one of these games. And last night just a heartbreaker for them. I can’t get on them again today. As much as I would love to play Lance Lynn, I just can’t do it. Now, they’re five games back, and we’ve seen the White Sox go through these struggles for a majority part of the season. Everyone’s thinking they’re better than they really are, or they’re really not.

And their lineup is inconsistent, their bullpen is inconsistent. I would love to play Lynn. Bottom line is, I cannot trust this team. And a little note on Lance Lynn one more thing here. He’s five and 0’s last seven starts, ERA of 1.43. Really would love to play him, guys, but I don’t know, maybe that cut too deep for me last night, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, it’s funny, about 10:00, 11:00 Pacific Time last night, I’m talking with Cokin about the games today, and we’re both going, “Gosh, we just wish we could jump in with Lance Lynn here.” And I’m not sure if Dave jumped in or not with him, but I was kind of in your boat where I’m like, “God, I really want to play him.” I mean, there’s been nobody really better on the mound the last nine starts, you go back even further the last nine starts, than Lance Lynn.

But 93 ERA, his WHIP in this last nine starts which includes 56 innings of work is 0.82. And then, you got a guy who’s got 113 strikeouts and only 16 walks and 103-plus innings pitched this entire season. I mean, he just gets it done. Now, if you do want to back Lynn, the cool news is that they’ve won his last four starts. And so, they have been able to put things together when he’s been on the mound. Triston McKenzie, three great starts against the White Sox this season.

And when I looked at this when I decided I’m not going to play the White Sox in this game for some of the reasons you mentioned, TC, and I didn’t have action on last night’s game, so it wasn’t like that game cut too deep for me personally. Like you said, sometimes you just get out of your mind when you’re watching a team blow a couple chances to win a game and you just don’t want anything to do with them the next day.

That didn’t happen to me because I wasn’t on the game, but I still don’t want to play him. What I do lean towards here though is first five innings under. You know what you got out of Lance Lynn. And as far as McKenzie, both of these guys, including McKenzie, have really strong numbers when it comes to the first two times through a batting order.

And if I recall correctly, I don’t have it right in front of me, but if I recall correctly, Triston McKenzie’s third time through, he goes a little bit deeper than a lot of pitchers. And his ERA is even a little bit better than Lance Lynn third time through a batting order. So, I really only worry about the first two times through. And both of these pitchers are solid, those first two times through a batting order. And I think it stays under four.

The other night, I had Houston and they were as low as three. And I played it under first half anyway and I hate when it gets down to three because at that point, it seems like you’re hanging on for a push and you’re only in the third or fourth inning. But under four I think is the way to go in this one first five innings.

TC Martin:

And one thing I’ll add, Scott, what you said there about McKenzie’s been good against the White Sox, and that’s what pushed me over the edge and said, “Nope, I’m not taking the White Sox.” He had 14 strikeouts and no walks against him. I think in his start, it was last month or a month and a half ago, 14 strikeouts against the White Sox, no walks. No, thank you.

It shows me that when they step in the box, they don’t have a clue of what they’re looking at there. So, Basewinner?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, there’s nothing wrong with what Scott said about playing under in the first five. You said it was four, Scott?

Scott Spreitzer:

It was overnight. I didn’t double check it.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I mean, look, the numbers on Lynn, if you look September, August starts, they’re darn good. Eighty-one strikeouts, nine walks, Basewinner ERA of 2.67. So, that puts him 33% better than an average pitcher. Yeah, this game for me, I passed on. I do like McKenzie as well. I’ve got Lynn at eighth in the model out of 150 pitchers. I got McKenzie in at 22nd. So, really almost two top 20 pitchers.

I think that you mentioned some good things. And I know, Scott, you do a little bit more with times through the rotation, which I think is a good way to analyze a game. And so, I was listing when you were saying that and that makes a lot of sense. Take this White Sox bullpen out of it. I mean, if you’re going to play an under, I wouldn’t want that White Sox bullpen late in the game. But yeah, that’s a good way to play it.

For all the reasons you said, I think my numbers would support that to go under the first five there in this game.

TC Martin:

All right, so no play for any of us on this game. But again, playoff baseball right around the corner. These guys battling for playoff positions, so keep an eye on this game. St. Louis and San Diego up next. And we do have some action on this game and it’ll be Mikolas going against Snell in this one. And the pottery is a dollar 32 home favorite, total seven and a half in this one. Scott, what do you think?

Scott Spreitzer:

Well, I tell you what, when I play an under, I play the first five for all the reasons I mentioned a million times on this show. When I play an over, I’m glad about the ghost runner, especially if it gets to extras obviously. So, I like the over in this game, which was sitting around. I just saw the numbers.

But we got a pitcher in Miles Mikolas who struggles on the road and a left-handed pitcher in Blake Snell who’s facing one of the best offenses when it comes to going up against southpaws. If you go back just the last six weeks, you’re going to see that the Redbirds are at the top of Major League Baseball on the road against lefties and all my favorite metrics, including weighted runs created plus.

They’re 20 and six the last 26 times in this situation, too. Then, there’s the case of Mikolas who is much less effective away from Busch many years when he pitches at home. And he’s got a 6-90-80 ERA, a 1.52 WHIP, a 186 home runs per ninth innings pitched ratio in his last seven road starts. I mean, one of the Cardinals need home field when it comes to the postseason, when you look at Waino and you look at Mikolas, but they’re also three and eight on the road.

It is 11 road starts are the Cardinals. That goes back to May 17th. And since that time, remember three and eight with Mikolas on the mound of the road, they’re 24 and 19 when everybody else starts in their last 43 road starts since May 17th. That’s 558 baseball. You do the math over the course of the season, that would be a healthy 45 and 36 road record for the entire season.

So, you can see the negative effect that Mikolas has on the Redbirds when he starts on the road. I like the over here. I think both teams are going to be able to do some damage at the plate. I thought the total seven and a half was playable.

TC Martin:

Basewinner?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I would agree with that analysis there. I got the over… the run projection rather, it’s 7.8 runs. But I think what’s interesting with this particular play is if you look at the plate discipline, I think this is super important when you’re playing an over, you don’t want guys flailing at pitches. You want a discipline team and at least getting good looks at the pitches.

And so, St. Louis, since August 1st, number one in baseball in walks divided by strikeouts, which is the key metric I use to define plate discipline. And number two is your San Diego Padres. And if you look versus left-handed pitching, St. Louis at a 0.641 BB divided by K. That’s a really high number. And so, I think that that’s a good way to go. I also like the side here. I think Snell’s been pitching pretty good. I mean, it’s hard to deny, he’s 16th in the model.

I’m not a huge fan of Mikolas either. I think Mikolas has really kind of fallen on hard times in my opinion since August 1st, this last two months. And it looks like there’s probably about… looks like there’s 11 starts in this sample. He’s got a Basewinner ERA of 4.61, and it’s just hard to get behind that guy. So, I could see this game going over. I could see this game going to the Padres, and maybe you play the Padres team total as well.

TC Martin:

All right. Let’s put Scott down for this one. Rooting for runs in San Diego today. Beautiful park, beautiful food, what can we say? There you go. Nothing like eating, watching, rooting for runs. Over seven and a half in this game, Cardinals and the Padres, Snell and Mikolas in this one. All right. Next up, guys, Seattle and Oakland A’s playing for absolutely nothing. Seattle playing for their playoff lives here as we know.

Robbie Ray going on the hill for the Mariners and James Kaprielian for the A’s today. Seattle, a big road favorite, 2-10, and we’re seeing this no matter who the opponent is against the A’s right now. Total is seven and a minus 120 towards the over in this game. Basewinner, who do you like and why?

Mark Borchard:

Well, I love the Mariners, you guys know that. And I think what’s important about this game is we talked on the show yesterday about J-Rod being in the lineup. And so, he was in the lineup yesterday, so I think that’s a good sign. I’ve got the thing priced at minus 391. I’m pretty high on Ray. I’ve got him 20th in baseball by my ratings. He’s at 77 Basewinner number, 23% better than average.

And I think Kaprielian is putting the crap in the… Kaprielian? He’s a 131, 31% worse than average. One of the things outside of the modeling of this, which indicates a strong play on Seattle, I thought what’s interesting in the breakdown is amongst Major League pitchers who have qualified, ninth innings to qualify for leaderboard, Robbie Ray leads the Major Leagues in… he’s number two behind Dylan Cease rather in use of his slider.

And the Seattle bullpen uses the slider tops in baseball. So, you’ve got a guy who is second amongst starters in slider usage. You’ve got the top team in baseball from a relief standpoint in slider usage against an offense that is the worst from a linear weight standpoint. I’m not going to get into linear weights. If you guys want to check that out, it’s a really good.

I know, it’s really hard for even me to explain, but it’s a really good measure of how individuals or teams do versus a particular pitch. And Oakland is worse in baseball in linear weights versus the slider. They’re minus 71.3 runs. And Detroit is the second worst and they’re minus 38 runs. So, it’s like a huge difference in how this Oakland team is handling the slider against heavy slider usage guys.

And I think that that kind of tops it all off outside of the model. I think that’s an interesting number when you’re taking a look at this game.

TC Martin:

Scott, why did I have a flashback to WKRP when Basewinner is talking about Kaprielian?

Scott Spreitzer:

That’s great. I’m trying to think. There’s got to be something there I’m missing, and I’m a big WKRP fan, when you’re talking about-

TC Martin:

No, I’m just saying when he’s talking about he’s crap or K for crap.

Scott Spreitzer:

Oh, I got it. WKRP.

TC Martin:

I was going more the initials there, so that’s all.

Scott Spreitzer:

See, I was thinking carp.

TC Martin:

No, right. Yeah.

Scott Spreitzer:

But anyway, I get a little… I love Basewinner, man, because I got to tell you, over the course of the time I’ve been on this show, which goes back to mid or late June, that he says things that I learned. I actually learned after all these years of betting baseball, handicapping baseball, certain things that maybe I didn’t look deeply enough into before. So, I love the analysis, although I started getting cold sweats because he started talking linear and all that.

And I haven’t gotten that kind of a feeling since I was a high school senior and I was taking physics. And by the way, I still remember the teacher’s name, his name was Fred Crow. And anyways, so I’m sitting and I’m thinking, “Whoa, man, I’m starting to get flashbacks and it wasn’t good.” So, anyway, I was glad he skipped the linear analysis, but I can’t wait to read about it because you know what I do, when Basewinner throws this stuff out, it’s like within 15 minutes after the show I’m online and I’m checking out some of that stuff.

So, I love it, man. I love listening to this guy. I’ve been listening to him for a while on the morning Basewinner show when he makes his appearances. It’s great stuff, folks. Check out Basewinner’s information because when you pile that on, everything else that you have… I mean, you could find some real nice spots along the way. He and I have a different approach to a certain extent.

We use a lot of common things that we look for in metrics, but when we both are able to combine, it’s done pretty well this year, I believe. And I haven’t really kept track other than in my mind. And sometimes you think, “Okay, well, I’ve done better than I have.” But I’m telling you what, when we line up, it seems to work pretty good on our styles. I lean towards Seattle having said all of that. I’ll keep the analysis short, but I lean towards Seattle.

I had them last night, and I laid the run line with them and they stunk it up at the plate. And one of the reasons I jumped on them is because J-Rod was in the lineup. Excuse me. And then, he went 0 for 4. So, they didn’t get their normal stuff out of the top of the lineup. Mark and I talked about the injuries to this team on Monday show. Suarez getting injured last week, J-Rod with the back issue.

So, right now, as of the top of the show when we started, I double checked and J-Rod is not listed on an injury list. He’s not listed as questionable or probable or anything like that, so you would think he would play. But just check out the lineups before you get involved in this game. Seattle, they’ve lost 405 to the Angels and A’s, 16 run scored in six of the last seven games, if you toss out the one outlier over that time span, which was against the Angels the other day.

But I would keep an eye on J-Rod, see if he’s going to be in this game. He probably will. And if he does play, the Mariners are nothing for me in this game.

TC Martin:

Okay. Let’s lock Basewinner down for play in this game on the Seattle Mariners side. In this one, he will take Seattle and he’s going to put it part of a parlay. Second leg of the parlay coming up. And from this moment forward, guys, we will refer to him as Professor Basewinner.

Scott Spreitzer:

There you go. I love your style, Mark.

Mark Borchard:

Thank you, Scott. I appreciate all. I think you’re an awesome handicapper, too. And, TC, we have different styles, but you’re a great handicapper as well. The proof’s in the pudding, that’s for sure. And I enjoy doing this show with both of you guys because you said you learn something every day. Well, I learn something, too. So, I think that there’s room in everybody’s brain to learn from other people and to respect the way other people handicap as well.

So, I really appreciate that, guys. And it’s been fun, Scott, since you’ve joined the show. I’ve had nothing, but good times and I’ve actually learned stuff from you. You go through the lineups first two times through the lineups. That’s great for first five inning stuff. So, I think that’s something that you have to be doing that, honestly, I haven’t done. So, when you are able to pick information from other people, I think that makes you a better handicapper.

Scott Spreitzer:

I agree.

TC Martin:

There we go. We’re here to educate, inform, and entertain. That’s what we’re here for. And I think we check all the boxes with that. So, good luck, Basewinner, on your play with the Seattle Mariners tonight. Let’s take that over to the second leg of his parlay and that’s Arizona and the Dodgers, and it’ll be Dustin May going for the Dodgers tonight. And Madison Bumgarner is going to continue to trot this guy out and continue to pay him his money.

And he’s continues to use the Arizona Diamondbacks as his personal ATM machine, I think. Craziness here, but here we go. Dodgers, Arizona. And, Basewinner, go ahead and take us through the second game.

Mark Borchard:

It was the worst contract that the Diamondbacks could have dealt. And they’re limited on resources, so they took a risk on Bumgarner and it just hasn’t paid off. And you talk about the crappiness on the board, and you said, “Well, he’s a crafty left-hander.” Well, I think he’s just a crappy left-hander because he is the worst pitcher on the board today outside of Tucker Davidson. And I’ve got this game priced with Dustin May.

I’m still high on May. He really hasn’t shown that great so far, but I’ve got it priced at minus 391. I still have May at 23% better than an average pitcher. If you look at the Stuff+, and this looks at pitches that he actually has thrown this year, this is Athletic Stuff+ by Sarris, 97th percentile there versus Bumgarner who’s in the 23rd percentile. I think we get a huge tick on the offense, too. Yesterday is doubleheader. I think that that’s a little bit scorely.

They were kind of shuffling the lineups around. I think we get the good Dodger lineup here. I’ve got them second in baseball. I’ve got this Arizona Diamondbacks offense versus right-handed pitching, even with the call-ups that they have 22nd in baseball. And then, if you take a look at the bullpens, I mean, I don’t see how you can back the Arizona bullpen if it gets to that level. We have a better bullpen with the Dodgers, too.

But gosh, what a disappointment Bumgarner’s been. I think that this is a good parlay to put on the back end of that Seattle game. And I think it will pay plus 104 and it will play plus a hundred as of the start of the show. So, even money on two superior matchups in my opinion.

TC Martin:

And we know Bumgarner has tons of starts against the Dodgers over his career, all of his time with San Francisco and of course in Arizona within that division. And a lot of these Dodgers have seen him as well. Scott, what are your numbers say as far as Dodgers against Bumgarner and specifically left-handed pitching?

Scott Spreitzer:

I actually have a personal play that includes the Dodgers on a two-teamer today. And in fact, for show purposes, I almost tied the Seattle Mariners to the LA Dodgers today. So, we were really close to having the same best bet two-team parlay. And I like both of those plays and I do like this parlay. And again, for me, a personal play that I have, I’ve got the Dodgers tied in with another game for a two-teamer.

But no matter how you slice it, I mean, the Dodgers have crushed southpaws at home this season. They’re top eight in batting average, OPS, wOBA, weighted runs created plus, at home against lefties. Since day one this season, they’re top three over the past six weeks in all of those categories. So, LA should have little trouble with Bumgarner for all the reasons that Mark mentioned. I mean, it’s been awful everywhere basically, but especially on the road.

They’ve lost 14 of his last 20 outings no matter where he starts. And the run line has covered playing against the Dbacks at each of those 14 losses. So, it’s like you think Bumgarner is going to lose that game or Arizona is going to lose the game he starts, why not lay the run at a half? And then, the Dodgers with that incredible run differential that we’ve been talking about for a few weeks, I think they get the job done here as far as the run line is concerned, if you want to play this as a standalone.

But I completely agree with Mark’s two-teamer between Seattle and the Dodgers. And again, I did use the Dodgers as part of a two-team parlay of my own today.

Mark Borchard:

Did you parlay it? Did you parlay that with Seattle or you parlay that with another team?

Scott Spreitzer:

I ended up parlaying that with that over that I talked about earlier, that ended up being the two-team parley.

Mark Borchard:

Oh, that would be good.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, I like the over a little bit better, which is why that’s my best bet today on the show. I did like it a little bit better than the Dodgers. And as we’re talking about it, I’m wondering why I should have liked it the same when you’re talking about the Dodgers against lefty, and it’s Bumgarner on the mound. My gosh.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Yeah, I’m with you on that. I was looking at that Dodger game as well too and I was trying to find somebody to pair it up with. And I just didn’t feel confident about a real solid number two or a 1A, so to speak. So, maybe a little bit more handicapping before these games go tonight. Unless you guys want to steer me in a direction. Maybe I’ll just join you, Basewinner, on that too with Seattle because that makes a lot of senses, too.

Mark Borchard:

That sounds like fun.

Scott Spreitzer:

There you go.

TC Martin:

There you go. All right, so we got Basewinner down for the parlay there, so lock him in for that one. Rooting him on with the Seattle and the Dodger parlay. All right, Q&A time, guys. We’ll hit those. Tarik wants to know some thoughts on the Astros today. Can they go for the sweep? The answer to that is, yeah, they definitely could sweep today. Again, you got Lance McCullers going. I’ve talked a lot about McCullers rounding into form. Still have to be aware of his control.

Can he spot the curve ball again? Remember, he throws the curve ball in the breaking stuff 75% of the time. And again, you’re not going to see many fast balls with McCullers. So, they’ve seem to own Tampa Bay in this series. Tampa Bay is another one of those teams that not scoring many runs at all today. You’re going to get a great price on the Astros as well, but we checked the lineup again for the most part last night.

Alvarez did start, we talked about that yesterday. Thought that Dusty May rest a couple of the guys after the celebration the night before. But for the most part, he did get out Toby out of the game early when he started. And you do have Diaz. Aledmys Diaz is back as well too, contributing. He just came off the IL. So, yeah, Astros can do it again today. Any quick thoughts on that from either one of you guys?

Mark Borchard:

It’s a tough game for me. I mean, my model has Tampa Bay at minus 108, so it would indicate value with Tampa Bay. But gosh, those Astros are locked in. I mean, you looked at some of the bats they took yesterday, they hit some good pitches. They took some really tough pitches to take. And I don’t know, I think that even if the model goes against the Astros, I’m going to pass.

I’m going to look to you first, TC, for it. I’m going to see what your opinion is on it. The one thing that if you want to back the Astros is McCullers’ location is, in my opinion, it’s not reliable right now. I mean-

TC Martin:

No, it’s not. And that’s what kept [inaudible 00:41:50]. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Mark Borchard:

And so, I think that’s a tough ask. I think maybe just stay away from this game.

Scott Spreitzer:

I thought about play the over here for McCullers, as you just mentioned, plus Kluber of late hasn’t been great. And then, I thought, “You know what, the only thing that scares me is if McCullers is on Tampa Bay could be really held in check at the plate.” But it was a thought at first of a potential over. It’s kind of a low total for the way Kluber’s been pitching of late.

TC Martin:

Yup. He given up 10 runs in his last two starts. Not good. Timmy Two-Shoes wants some thoughts about the Jays against the Phillies. We’ve got Gausman and Wheeler going up today, guys. Again, we’ve got some inconsistency here, but how do you follow up a game and how do you handicap a game that score… they score 29 runs. And Toronto wins 18 to 11 last night. Any thoughts on that?

Mark Borchard:

I just think you got to look at the… go ahead, Scott. Sorry.

Scott Spreitzer:

Oh, no, I’m sorry. I didn’t mean to jump in. I was just going to say there were used to be an old standby. And it’s funny, it hasn’t worked for many, many years, but I’m talking like in the ’90s into the early 2000s. If you had a game that involved two teams that played the night before and one of those teams had 20 hits or more, man, I mean, it was almost automatic play the under. It sounds like too simple to be true.

And maybe it is because it stopped working years ago, but there was a good six or seven years stretch where it just worked all the freaking time. But five straight losses for the Phils first what, start, I guess for Wheeler going all the way back to August 20th. We’ll see how he does. The pen, I don’t know, man, it was busy yesterday, I guess, is the best way I could put it for the Phillies. So, if I was going to back the Phillies in this game, which I’m not, it would be first five and that’s it because their pen got used a little bit yesterday.

Mark Borchard:

I think that’s a good approach, Scott. You look at Wheeler most of the time and if you were to look at this game, and Wheeler had been kind of like in the flow and pitched a few games, you’d say, “Hey, the under probably looks like a pretty good idea here.” You’ll get Gausman. He usually goes deep. Wheeler goes deep. You got Gausman. He’s the 18th out of 150 pitchers in my ratings. Wheeler is 9th out of 150 pitchers.

The Athletic numbers love these guys. Sarris says that Gausman is the best starter in baseball. He’s 100% pitching pluses. Wheeler is 96% pitching plus. But that Philly bullpen is so untrustworthy, especially amongst playoff right now, if they were to go to the playoff teams right now. They’re 16th in that sabre command chart. I think that you made a good point, if you play the under, play at first five here.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah. And also because Wheeler might be on a pitch count, you never know because he hasn’t pitched for what, three or four weeks. So, I don’t want to mess with that bullpen, that’s the bottom line. That’d be a play, by the way. If I was going to play the under, it doesn’t even matter, they can remove the ghost runner from this game and I would still say first five or nothing in this one.

TC Martin:

Ed has a question. Actually, he talks about the Seattle game. He said he lost last night, so he’s a bit weary about that. So, I can relate to that. He loves the Dodgers today. He won about a tag team partner and he brings up the Yankees. And I’ll say this, Ed, actually, that was my initial thought today was I was going to go with the Dodgers-Yankees parlay, but I couldn’t pull the trigger with Severino. He hasn’t pitched in three months.

So, I don’t want to get on Severino and especially the way the Yankees struggled against the Pirates last night. I think the Yankees win the game, but it’s just my thing, I will not get on a pitcher who’s had extended list on the IL. Basewinner?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, it’s a huge disparity between Severino and Contreras’ ratings. But you make such a good point, what are they going to do with Severino? The Yankees bullpen has been really concerning. I mean, you look at their ranking here. My gosh, they’re 10th in baseball from that sabre command standpoint, but man, they really have not been effective.

That Milwaukee game, Scott, I think we were both watching that on Sunday, and I kind of felt really uneasy. I had the Yankees there and I kind of felt uneasy, and they were up 12 to six. So, I don’t know if that’s just kind of recency bias or what, but as far as the way I price it with a normal Severino rating, a normal Contreras rating, I’ve got it a minus 319. So, I think that’s not a bad idea if you don’t want to go with the Seattle game.

I honestly think that the Seattle game is… I mean, obviously I have Seattle minus 391. So, I think that’s a better idea personally.

TC Martin:

And Ed also has a question for you, Scott, asking you, you mentioned you’re starting pitching data first, second time through the lineup. He’d like to know where he can find that info because he’d like to add that to his handicapping.

Scott Spreitzer:

FanGraphs.

TC Martin:

And I know Basewinner’s brought-

Mark Borchard:

They’ve got it at Baseball-Reference, too. You can actually search for the player, go to the split section and then it’ll show different splits. And that’s one of them that they-

Scott Spreitzer:

Exactly. Mark is right. And the one I use every day just because it’s laid out so clearly is FanGraphs. And you can get updated hard hit percentages, barrel rates. It’s been a godsend for me because I was having to work my tail off during baseball season to put this stuff together to keep track of it and all that a few years ago, and then FanGraphs comes along.

And I actually think it was Dave Cokin who pointed it out to me because he knew some of the stuff I looked for. And I’ve been using it now ever since I was told about it. That’s been a few years now.

TC Martin:

And that is a point there with Dave. He’s been around a long time just like I guess we all have, Scott. But there are some guys that are not used to or don’t want to dive into a lot of the analytical type of stuff. So, kudos to Dave for getting in into that sort of thing.

Scott Spreitzer:

Sure.

TC Martin:

I still know a lot of people that are like, “Well, that’s too complicated. And where can I find it?” This and that. They don’t want to spend that much time handicapping, but as you know better than anybody else, hey, you’re doing this to win. And Dave said this on the show yesterday, he goes, “Quit betting on these sad games.” He is just like, he goes, “I’m here to win. I’m not here to have recreational fun with betting on three, four or five games a day.”

Scott Spreitzer:

Exactly.

TC Martin:

I think we all take that approach. That’s why I don’t have a play today because, like I’ve said it before, if I don’t feel close to 100%, I’m not going to pull the trigger.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, modern day baseball is tough enough to handicap. It was an easier cap 20 years ago than it is now. And the more key metrics that you could throw into the mix, and I’m not talking about taking all the crazy stuff that you might hear some people talk about, but check out what Mark does. Go to FanGraphs, and you could play with sites like FanGraphs. You could enter months, weeks, days. You could see this team is on a nine-game winning streak.

And since then, their weighted runs created plus is fourth in baseball. But then, you can look at their previous two months and they’re 20th in baseball. The same metric. And I really do break down segments of the season. Like at this point of the year, I don’t give a crap what happened in April and May. I just don’t care. I don’t even look at it, generally speaking.

The only time I look at it is if you’ve got a pitcher who’s faced a team that he’s pitching against today multiple times. And I’ll go back and I’ll say, “Okay, he’s faced them five times this year.” He did it twice in April and May. And guess what, his numbers were just as good or just as bad then against this particular team as it is now. And so, I’ll use it for that kind of stuff.

But you can… I’m not being paid by FanGraphs, by the way, guys, but I was just going to say, you can go in, you can enter different dates. You can enter August 1st through September 15th. You can do earlier in the year if you like that stuff. You can go back past years with certain pitchers, see how they did in particular months, see if they wore down if that’s part of their career history. They wear down after the All-Star break year-after-year.

It’s all in there. You just got to get a little bit creative with what you’re looking for, and you will. The more you use it, the more creative you’ll get.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. And their interface is certainly intuitive, especially the split leaderboard section. The way they have the filters laid out is it’s really good. It’s designed very well, in my opinion.

TC Martin:

All right. Best MLB betting, guys. Let’s recap the best bets for today. Like we said, we handicapped five games today. Here’s what we got. Scott is involved in the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego, over seven and a half runs today. Over seven. Rooting for runs. Basewinner’s got the parlay at the Dodgers and the Mariners. That’s going to pay you back even money. So, we’ll root for you guys on both of those.

All right. Good stuff, guys. Remember to follow us individually and of course here at BetUS TV as well, too. Click that bell and get the notifications when we go live. We are here Monday through Friday, 12:00 noon Eastern, 9:00 AM Pacific. You got this trio here Monday, Wednesdays, and Fridays with Scott Spreitzer and the Dynamite, Dave Cokin, here on Tuesdays and Thursdays. We appreciate you guys watching. Appreciate you guys chiming in with questions as well, too.

Always love that as we get into crunch time here. The last couple weeks of the baseball regular season, like I mentioned yesterday, we will be here all the way through the end, through playoff baseball, the expanded playoffs. Looking forward to that. So, we’ll get some big time handicapping in with that as well, too, all the way to the World Series here on the MLB Show here on BetUS TV. All right, guys, thanks for joining us again, everyone out there.

Scott and Mark, appreciate you guys as well. And we will do it again tomorrow. All right. For Scott Spreitzer and Mark Borchard, the Basewinner, TC Martin saying so long, have yourself a good one. Continue to watch the show. Back at it again tomorrow, the MLB Show, here on BetUS TV.