Welcome to the MLB show here at BetUS TV presented by America’s favorite sportsbook , BetUS. TC Martin here, still in Seattle, flanked from left to right by my man, Scott Spreitzer who is in my hometown, Las Vegas, Nevada. Heading your way soon, Scott. Of course the base winner of Scottsdale, Arizona, just living the charmed life. What’s up guys? I was living the charm life last night with the Padres, that’s for sure. I think I want to get back to you TC because before the show you were saying that you haven’t had anything to eat since one in the afternoon yesterday. I think you should elaborate on that because that’s an interesting story. Well, like I said, in here in Seattle covering the Aces and the Seattle Storm. I got a great visit yesterday guys to the University of Washington because as you guys know, I’m one of those college geeks that I got to go see a stadium, I got to see the arena. One of our former good friends, Scott, Dave Rice, who used to be head coach at UNLV, well Dave’s been an assistant in University of Washington in the last several years so of course I tapped into him, he hooked me up with a grand tour so I got to see UW. Got to see the field, the arena, everything was great. I had to go a little bit early because I was looking for some food. It’s been very hard to find food here, especially late night here in Seattle. I had this great- So funny. Great meal yesterday guys on campus there. Had this Chicken Parmesan. It was great and I knew that I had to really load up because once I got to the arena, I knew I wasn’t seen any food. Now they got some great options for the fans, but for the media, no food room, no food for the media in this brand spanking new arena. Where the Seattle Kraken play, where the Seattle Storm play and there’s no food. Of course, I’m trying to race out of there. Done with the post game show. Aces win, little celebration going. Everybody in the organization wants to go somewhere and celebrate. No place is open. Everything shuts down at nine o’clock here in Seattle. We could not find, so the Aces executives are going Uber Eats and there’s nothing. Now I understand why they made this movie Sleepless in Seattle because nobody can eat after nine o’clock. I got the sequel Mark, it’s Foodless in Seattle, not Sleepless in Seattle. I mean, my gosh. That’s an amazing story. You would think that that’s a pretty big city and that’s really, it’s not like it was 1:30 in the morning. I mean it’s nine at night and you guys, I mean a big organization, I mean I’m sure you could have found a place, but there was nothing open. Crazy. Not even a Starbucks in Seattle is open past nine o’clock at night? The home of Starbucks. Well you got little muffins at least. I’m not looking for a bagel, Scott. Can’t get a steak after nine o’clock. Unbelievable. No jalapeno burgers, Chicago dogs. Even the weekends, these fine steakhouse close at 9:30 or 10 so of course on Tuesday night, I’m going to be out of luck. Yeah, so there it is. TC was seeing crossing the border at midnight trying to get to Vancouver to get a bite. So guys, if I start shaking or rattling here, you’ll understand. It’s got nothing with Tourette Syndrome or anything of that nature. It’s because I’m starving right now and as soon as we’re done with this, I’m racing to the airport and I’m going to have to settle for food at the airport so there you go. Of course Scott, you’ll like this. Scott will really appreciate this. Tonight, Scott, the reservation has already been made. While I was struggling in the Lyft car last night, I said I’m making my reservation for Juan’s Flaming Fajitas in Las Vegas tonight. There we go. I was going to say, it’s got to either be Juan’s or it’s got to be jalapeno burger from Freddy’s, something like that. I’m just going to hope and pray that there’s no three hour delay on the tarmac, we don’t need stuff like that. Mark, quit introducing that thought into the whole scheme of things here, all right? Don’t even think that all right, come on. There you go. As we talked about, good time in Seattle and great time at the ballpark the other day as well too. Seeing the Mariners and the White Sox. I know you guys had some action on those games as well too. Yeah, great park and good food options at the park. I think your prediction Scott of under 16 and a half, or you’ve said over 16 and a half photos. I think I went under on that. What? On my food pics. I didn’t get one. What was up with that? I was waiting for food photos. I will send that to you. I keep forgetting base winner isn’t on the social media with us there. There we go. All right guys, so let’s move on. We’re going to handicap five games today on this Wednesday card. A lot of early starts here today so let’s dive into that. We’ll hit the record board here as you will and get everybody updated on where we’re at with the record board. Still doing that, very, very well. There he is, base winners at the .500 mark there. Very nice, my man. You’ve made a nice little role here as of late as we’ve all been hitting them pretty good. Let’s get cracking here today. What a better way to start than going I guess with the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays. I get to talk about four run Nick today? That’s always fun. Four run Nick going again today for the Red Sox, Tampa Bay’s a $1.65 favorite. The total in this one’s seven, -120 towards the over. It’s Pivetta for Boston and Jeffrey Springs for Tampa Bay. Scott, be the lead off hitter. All right man, I’m going to use the Rays as part of a little two teamer here fellows. They just continue to clean up at home, 13-2 the last 15 at the Trop, 46-24 at home on the season. It’s one of those things that where I look to back Tampa when they’re at home or I look to stay away from their game for the most part. In tonight’s case, I’ll tie in the Rays to a team we’ll talk about in just a little bit. Springs has taken care of business guys once again, just like his team. He’s got a what? 1.91 ERA, .225 batting average against, 51 punch outs, only 40 hits allowed in 47 innings at his home stadium. He should have some motivation, a little extra motivation for this one if he even needs it with Tampa Bay in the mix because he had that week outing against Boston on August 27th. They didn’t treat him too well. You check out his other five starts wrapped around that tough outing at Fenway and you’ll see that Springs has only given up four earned runs, 28 base runners, 32 strikeouts in 27 and a third innings pitch. They’ve already taken it to Nick Pivetta twice this season. I don’t see any reason why they can’t do it again. This will be again, part of a two teamer for me on the Tampa Bay Rays guys. I asked Scott to play the lead off hitter too. I failed to say that be careful Scott, because four run Nick will probably walk you to start us off here today. I don’t doubt it. Bass winner, what do you got on this game? You’re back to four run Nick, I love it. If you really look at his numbers, there’s nothing to be too overly impressed by. I like Scott’s play. I’ve got the game priced at -189. I like the over a little bit here. One of the things that’s interesting I think is the gap between the location plus ratings with each pitcher and Springs is really, he’s close to elite. He’s in the top quartile for sure, but he’s in the 89 percentile from a location standpoint. Then Pivetta, he’s almost in that dreaded lower quartile. He’s in the 32nd percentile so I think that’s interesting there. Then if you take a look, kind of at their advanced numbers and you look at really both, I think their regular ERA and their base winner ERA kind of marry each other. Springs regular ERA 2.9, Base winner ERA a little bit worse at 3.21 but still pretty impressive. Then you got Pivetta at 4.37 regular ERA and that’s really close to his expected ERA at 4.27. I think that Scott’s really kind of, and Scott mentioned some pretty good stats about Tampa Bay at home. I just think that that’s such a unique park. It’s such a unique place and I think that there’s sometimes with these trends, we cite them and we say, well, that’s just a trend. I think that there’s really some legs behind that Tampa Bay home field advantage there. For all those reasons, I agree with Scott and I think that he’s going to play it in a parlay with me on another game that we both like so that’ll be pretty fun. Good deal, all right. Another thing too with Pivetta guys, he has a calf injury as well too so not only has he been bad, but he’s coming off an injury too. I imagine he’s still going to start tonight, but just kind of FYI and keep an eye on that. Yeah, Pivetta with the calf injury so we’re going to lock Scott in with his play. Sounds like a good one, going with Tampa Bay and the youngster Jeffrey Springs in this game. The Tampa Bay Rays and Scott’s going to make it part of a parlay. We’ll get to the tag team partner of the parlay a little bit later on. All right, next up, the Miami Marlins and the Philadelphia Phillies. Trevor Rogers and Bailey Falter are going to square off in this game in Philadelphia. We see the Miami Marlins guys just downright dreadful. Losers of eight in a row, five in a row on the road. Doesn’t matter if they’re home or away, they’re pretty pathetic. Philly, they’re pretty decent price there at -155 for the home team. Seven and a half is the total in this game, shaded towards the over at -115. Base winner, some thoughts on Marlins and Phils? Yeah, I really like the Phillies here. Yesterday I had the Phillies on the first five. It ended up being a push for me, but to me watching the game, I think that, and I’ll cite the numbers in just a second, but just kind of watching the game, it looked like Philly was so focused and there and Marlins, they were just not. They were just like, eh, gosh, we don’t feel like being here. I don’t know, maybe I was watching it through Philly colored glasses, but that’s kind of what I saw here. As far as the numbers go, I’ve got this priced -227 for the Phillies and the market, it’s about -160 right now so I think that there’s really good value. We talk about this or I talk about those location plus numbers. I think those are very important. Falter’s 89th percentile, Rogers’ 36 percentile so a huge edge there. Then if you look at these team’s offenses, I mean this Marlin’s offense is in the bottom 10 of baseball. In fact, I think my model has them, I have them 21st in baseball in this model versus lefthanded pitching. I just don’t think that, I think I’m giving them too much credit, Scott. I think that you probably have taken a look at those numbers and you can tell everybody what they’ve done over the last current period because it hasn’t been good. Then this Philly offense, top 10 in baseball. The one thing that I was kind of confused on this was whether to play it for the first five innings or go full game. I don’t think that, I think the Marlins bullpen’s a little bit better than Philly overall, but I don’t think there’s that big of a difference. I just think that you want to get the better offensive team, want to get all their at bats in. Maybe I’m stung a little bit from getting a push on the first five yesterday, but I think the Phillies at -160, I think it’s a valuable play here guys. Okay, Scott? Yeah, and it’s come down a little bit. I know last night, I’m going to say probably about eight hours ago, it was around a $1.75-ish Philly. I decided to parlay the Phillies in with that first half of the part of that I told you about with the Tampa Bay Rays so this is my second half. As Mark said, I mean these two offenses couldn’t be any different than it gets basically in tonight’s situation. If you look at the Phils, they’ve got a .123 weighted runs created plus rating over the past six plus weeks at home against southpaws and they are ranked seventh, eighth, eighth and ninth in batting average, ops, wOBA, weighted runs created plus in this situation. Flip side, Miami dead last in Major League Baseball in all four of those categories on the road against lefties over the same time span and they have a weighted runs created plus. Now I just said Philly in the spot, .123, Miami’s 29. They’re weighted runs created plus rating over the last six plus weeks, 29 in this spot. Listen, Miami could come out and win. I’ve been wrong before and I’ll be wrong again. I get all that stuff, but the bottom line is this is one of those games where I take the Phillies or I stay away from the game. I tied the Phillies in with this play for the parlay, but Miami’s dropped five in a row with Trevor Rogers on the mound. They’re 1-6 against the run line of the last seven losses when he is on the mound. If that’s not enough, Miami has lost all three of his starts against the Phillies. His ERA, 11.95. His WHIP, 2.30. Miami’s lost eight in a row overall, they scored 11 runs in those eight games. We could just keep talking about that offense being dreadful of late and then of course Philly’s 7-1 in Bailey Falter’s last eight starts. Their 6-0 against the run line in the last six wins when he toes the rubber. Listen, by the way, Falter, we kind of ripped him a little bit when he first came up. Guy’s got a 2.59 ERA and a 0.82 WHIP in his last four outings, not bad. How about 39 punch outs in 37 and a third. He’s pitching well, the Marlins, they’re not hitting. I think Mark just mentioned that watching Miami’s body language yesterday, it was like they hadn’t eaten since one o’clock the day before. [inaudible 00:13:37] I’m going to tie in the Phillies as the second half of the parlay as my best MLB bet today. I was going to say that too, Mark, as far as I don’t think you’re looking at it through Philly colored glasses or the Phanatics glasses through that big snout there. There’s two teams that when I look at right now that look like they’re disinterested, the Miami Marlins are probably number one and the Detroit Tigers are number two. The thing with the Diamondbacks is they’re a young team, but they play hard. They’re not going to the playoffs. There are certain teams, even the Cubs to a certain degree, they go out there and they play hard. The Pittsburgh Pirates, they play hard. For the most part, the Miami Marlins is a team that looks like they have mailed it in. You just look at them, the chemistry on this team. You look at the dugout, you look at I think there’s a disconnect there from manager to players as well too. Yeah, there’s a reason why this team- I think this tip of this play last night kind of typifies that attitude. This is one of the reasons I brought this up. Okay, so there’s a play and the guy made a nice play, Anderson in left field and threw, I can’t remember who was running from third base, but it was a throwout at home plate. It was one of those plays where they called the didn’t give the guy a lane and so the guy scored instead of being out. I thought it was kind of a controversial call, and Matt, he doesn’t even care. He doesn’t even go out and argue the thing. Everybody’s like, oh, guess that’s the way it is. A similar thing happened with the Twins versus the Blue Jays a couple weeks back and Baldelli was all on fire and players were in the umpire’s face. You really see that lack of emotion come out in a play like that. I thought that that was pretty interesting guys. Mark, don’t you hear? I mean the reason why, because Philly has restaurants that stay open late. Mattingly knows [inaudible 00:15:28] He wanted to go eat. Going to go get a cheese steak. Going to get me a little Geno’s, there were seats at Geno’s late at night the night before. There you go, that’s it. I agree with you Scott about Falter. I had ripped on him a little bit earlier just because of his name. I always tease base winners like okay, you want to bet on a guy named Falter? Well good luck there with that, but you’re right, Falter has been very, very good for the Phillies. One of the best pitchers right behind Nola. All right guys, let’s put you guys down for the Philadelphia Phillies in this contest. Scott’s got him, base winners got him, there it is. Good luck there. Pull out the sweep there and then Scott’s tied it to that parlay with the Rays and the Phils. All right, next up our BetUS game of the day and that is the Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles. These two teams are battling for playoff positioning right now. Both have a great shot of making the post season and the Jays, $1.43 favorites on the road. Baltimore’s come back to the pack a little bit, they’re still a little bit dangerous, +128 at home. Seven is the total in this game, -115 towards the overside in this one. Base winner, what do you think about Toronto and Baltimore? Yeah, I think that if you play this game, you play it on the over. I think seven and a half’s way too low. I’ve got it priced at eight and a half. I was really close to putting it out on this show. I don’t really even know what kind of held me back. I mean if you take a look at the Manoah location plus number, he’s at 36 percentile and Kremer’s in the 45th percentile. You take a look at the base winner ERA for these guys- Let jump in for just a second because Tyler Wells was I think just announced as the starter for Kremer right before the show guys. He did. I should have said that when I broke down the game. Yeah, so it is Alex Manoah and Tyler- Do we have a line on the total now? Let me check while you guys are talking. I know it’s about $1.35 on the price and I’ll bring up the total here real quick. Yeah, because Wells is actually even worse than Kremer. Yeah, our BetUs total is seven and a half. Yeah, I mean I’d still put the over. You look at Wells’ expected ERA is a 4.6 which is higher than Kremer’s and then Manoah, I’ve never really been that high on him as far as compared to the market goes. You look at an ERA of 2.48, base winner ERA 3.78. What’s interesting about these two teams is they’ve played 12 games this year and 10 of them have gone over. I think that, I know it’s a small sample size, but I think there might be something to that. I think that’s how I’d play it guys. I’d go the over here in the BetUS game of the day. Yeah, and we were talking about, we were probably going to talk about the Twinkies and the Yankees as a BetUS game of the day and then of course they had the postponement last night and so you had a situation where you might get pitchers changing in the double header, who’s going to go against two and all that kind of stuff. I’m sitting there thinking, boy, this Toronto/Baltimore game, obviously a ton of interest with what’s going on in the wild card race, all that kind of stuff. I was ready to talk about why I liked Dean Kremer and the Baltimore Orioles in this particular game and then we get the curve ball that says Tyler Wells is going to go and I can no longer back Baltimore here. One other thing about Wells, I believe that’s his first start now since late July because he had that oblique injury. We’ll see how far he is allowed to go in this game and yeah, I know it’s kind of funny. I’m watching the game last night. It got a little crazy on the field between these two teams and then you saw Baltimore celebrating when the game went final and they showed Manoah in the dugout and he’s just looking like, he’s doing one of, he’s going, He just got that look like, yeah, enjoy it fellas. I’m going to kick your butt sideways tomorrow. He just had that look on his face like, have fun. Still, I was going to go against Manoah if it was Dean Kremer. It’s tough to go against Toronto. 14-6 run, great bullpen. Saw a great interview yesterday with Buck Martinez as the former player who’s now play by play for Toronto. He was talking about the way Schneider has managed this team since he became the manager and he was talking about how he’s manipulated this bullpen so well. With Wells now on the mound, it’s got to be for me Toronto or nothing, I’ve decided to go with nothing. I just can’t back Wells and the Baltimore Orioles in this game. I think Mark is on the right side of this game. You’re talking about the over here, it makes sense. Seven and a half is a little bit low. Maybe that’s not been adjusted properly, especially with Wells out there. Again those 12 games Mark, I don’t think that’s too small of a sample size. I think that there’s offense with both of these teams here and it makes sense, especially in that ballpark. Slight lean to me would be the over. Thanks for bringing up Buck Martinez, Scott. One of my closest friends and Buck has just recovering from cancer and just got back in the booth two weeks ago. Great guy. He’s a great guy, he was a great, great player and he was a good manager and he’s been one of the best broadcasters in a long time and we thought that his broadcasting career might be over here when he was diagnosed with this during spring training. Yeah, Buck is back and he’s a great listen or watch. I just love turning on their games and you could close your eyes, flip on a Toronto game, you have no problem knowing who’s playing. That voice. Everything about Buck. Well, and then in Shulman on the play by play, he’s one of my favorite. Oh yeah, absolutely. It’s a great team. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, all right guys, let’s move on to the next game. No official play on Toronto and Baltimore but a lean towards the over in that game. Texas and Houston, they’ll bounce back tonight. The rubber game of this series. Astros won the first one on Monday, rangers got a victory last night. Snapped their eight game losing streak. The Astros a big favorite here. 270 with Christian Javier going on the mound and base winners main man, Cole Ragans. Ragans, Ragons, or Ragga muffin as I like to say. The total this one is eight, -115 towards the over in this game. Texas has been dreadful. They basically have a couple hitters that can get hot at the top of their lineup. We’ve talked about that before with Semien and Seager but once you get past the number four hitter, you’ve got really nothing here. Another team that kind of looks disinterested for the most part here and a team that the Astros have owned over time. I like Javier obviously in the situation here guys. Javier is one of those guys that doesn’t get probably the respect that he should and he’s been kind of one of those hard luck guys because he doesn’t get a lot of run support when he pitches. This guy has a 157 strikeouts on the year. He’s got great stuff, he’s got great ball movement. This is a guy who is fighting for his spot in the rotation and he should have a spot in the rotation. I know Dusty’s always felt comfortable with him coming out of the pen. They went to the six man rotation to protect Verlander’s arm earlier this year. Javier, he can throw gems as we’ve seen. Again, he’s a high strikeout guy as well too. He’s dominated Texas in his career. Javier is 5-1 career wise. As far as Ragans goes, he just faced the Astros three weeks ago. Houston lit him up, five runs in four and a third inning. Remember, this is only his third, he’s only had three career starts so this will be his fourth career starts and so not a fan of him. I think this is a good bounce back game for the Astros in this one. They do play a lot of one run games, but this just feels that this is going to be one of these 7-2 games. Give me the Astros on the run line. Base winner. Yeah, I think that’s how you do it. You play against this Ragans and have no regrets about it. I got it priced at -286. I like the over a little bit here too. I’m showing over of eight right now and I think 8.6 is my projection. You look at Ragans and you don’t really see this often and I do know that there’s a sample size issue but he has pitched four games and he’s got more walks than strikeouts and I think that that’s really concerning. I just got, he’s the worst pitcher in my ratings. I have 150 pitchers there and he’s a 150th. I don’t see any other way. Houston’s got the better offense. I just think you lay it here. Until this guy proves that he can be a major league pitcher, I’d bet against him until he does. The base on ball to strikeout ratio I always look at and it’s a great point, absolutely. You don’t want to put runners on base and he does that and again, he’s not experienced at all and the Astros had their opportunities and though they fell behind 3-0 yesterday, chipped away, got a run in successive innings and tie it up and then they lost it late, 4-3 the final, so expect a big bounce back today for all those reasons. Scott, what do you think? Yeah, it’s crazy. You kind of mentioned it that Javier, you know they’re 3-7 in his last 10 outings, talking about Houston? I mean it’s crazy. They should be 7-3 when you consider the type of pitching that he has done for this team. I mean he’s been solid in four starts as you mentioned against the Rangers and I was looking at his overall numbers and he’s had 13 home appearances, 10 of those have been starts yet he’s 5-5, whatever reason. As you mentioned, it seems like every year we get a really good pitcher who is just on the bad luck side of getting run support and he’s been the one. Ragans though can take care of that all on his own. I mean he could obviously serve up some serious hittable beach ball type of pitches for Houston to attack. As you mentioned, they’ve already done once against him this season. Here’s the thing, I mean base winner rates Ragans as the worst pitcher in baseball. That’s saying something because until late, you’re talking about Patrick Corbin in Major League Baseball, you’re talking about, and again, until late when Corbin’s been a little bit better but season long numbers, Corbin’s been a mess. Keuchel has been, I don’t know if he’s done much better than any one of the three of us would do if we were out there on a mound right now so say Ragans is the worst is telling you how bad this guy really can be. You’re going to need a lot of runs I think in this game to be able to beat Houston. The problem for Texas, besides the obvious with Ragans on the mound is that they’re on, they snapped that nine game skid last night. They still didn’t score any runs, still didn’t get any hits. They had a 4-3 winner but they went 7 of 35. That’s .200 batting average as a team last night in that win. They’re still not hitting the ball. Houston had that 18-15 so-so stretch, but they’ve won six of the last seven or six of the last eight now since then. I’m with you on this one. I think Houston gets the job done. I’m a little bummed guys because I had the Houston Astros as the second half of a two teamer last night and I know they do play some one run games as you mentioned, Ragans should take care of that tonight on his own. I was a little bummed because I believe, I could be wrong, but I believe they got ahead early. I might have been thinking about the Braves on that one. The bottom line was is that I needed them to get that two teamer and we’ve had a nice run and then they fell 4-3. Boy, I think you’re right. Somebody, one of you two guys said 7-2 type of game, I could very much see that happening. All right, so I’m not going to overthink it. Like I said, Astros lay the run line in this situation, put me down for the Astros tonight, get the job done and win the series against the Rangers. All right, next up guys, Diamondbacks and the Padres. Interesting pitching match up here. Tommy Henry going for Arizona today against Yu Darvish for the Padres. $2 is the number here for the home team, the Padres. Total in this game is eight. Base winner, what do you think? Yeah, talk about laying it, I’m going to lay it with the Padres here. They’re going to be the second team in the two team parlay with Philly, both full game parlays so Philly to San Diego I think pays the parlay, +141. If you just kind of look at the surface stats, I don’t see how San Diego is only favorite at -190. I’m pretty high on Darvish. I have them 27th out of 150 pitchers. We mentioned the hundred 50th pitcher with no regrets, but Tommy Henry 144th in baseball. He’s got a .142 run suppression number. You look at the difference in base winner ERA in this game. You’ve got Darvish at 3.35 and then Tommy Henry 5.57 and I don’t really think that that was a good thing for the Diamondbacks last night to blow that 5-0 lead. To be clear to everybody, I thought that game was a loser. It was the second leg of the parlay that I had last night and I went to sleep a little bit grumpy. I did have some food though before I went to sleep so I was able to sleep and then I woke up and I looked at the score and I said, Oh man, you got to be kidding me. Then watched the replay and I thought that Alek Thomas, he could have made the play and center field for the Diamondbacks and then Alfaro hits a ground ball, seeing eye ground ball to win. I think there was a little bit of luck involved in that and I think maybe that’s something to get the Padres going. I think that they’ve been playing pretty tight at home. I mean if you look at what the disparity in their plate discipline on the road. This is since the trade deadline, August 2nd. On the road, their plate discipline, this is walks divided by strikes offensively, 0.569. At home, it’s 0.439. Still not bad, but there’s a big disparity in that home away thing. Maybe that win last night will loosen them up. At any event on paper you look at this offense, I have them fifth in baseball versus lefthanded pitching, 21st in baseball for the Diamondbacks. A huge advantage in the bullpen for the Padres. Then I just went over the starting pitching numbers. For all those reasons, I think this is a really ideal play to put on the back end of that Philadelphia front end parlay, yeah. All right Scott, you trust Yu Darvish? I do. I mean it’s kind of funny, I’m looking at Arizona was the hottest team in baseball and they’re up 5-0. As Mark said, you’re thinking this is done. Well one of the hottest teams, they were 9-2 going into that game. I got my phone here, I got to bring up a text I got from our good friend Dave Coken, felt bad for him here. Mark, I didn’t know you had the other side here, but Dave I guess was on Arizona and he sent this to me about midnight last night. Off my worst beat of the year, 397 pitches thrown in that DBacks game, ‘Zona homer on the first pitch of the game. They led for 396 pitches of the 397, my worst beat of the year. I mean if you were on the other side, that’s a terrible… The single, I think Will Meyers hit the single, there’s two outs in the ninth and Alek Thomas, I was watching the play, the guy should have made the play and then Alfaro seeing eye ground ball, but I’ll take the luck because I’ve had my share of bad luck this year. Take it all the way and run. I’ll take it when it’s there, absolutely. Absolutely. Listen, the only thing that scared me a little bit about this is while they’ve been good against lefties, since the break San Diego’s like 23rd or worse in OPS, WOBO weighted runs created plus at home against southpaws. They got all this armor, I mean all this weaponry at the plate and I think you’re right Mark. I think they’ve been a little bit tight at home. It’s like they got off to kind of a shaky start right after the trade deadline and it’s like they’re pressing, but in this particular matchup and Henry on the mound, come on. If the Padres can’t plate seven runs of this game and win this won by more than at least by two runs then give me a break here. It’s Tommy Henry after all. I’m starting to feel really bad for our friend Dave Coken because he talked about that bad beat last night and his previous worst bad beat was last week when he first joined the show. Remember he had the five inning run line- No, he had Philly the night before his first day on this show. He had Philly on the first five innings and they were up. 7-0. Yeah, that’s a bad beat. Oh, he had the big lead in that game. I didn’t know that. Yeah, that’s a worst beat. Then got hammered in the fourth and the fifth inning. I think that’s worse than, I don’t know. Having a lead for 396 out of 397 pitches. What’s scary is it gets to a point, Dave, as you guys know, he’s as sharp as it gets in Major League Baseball. That’s his game. I mean he handicaps it all, but that’s his game. He knows more, as far as I’m considered, he’s a walking encyclopedia of Major League Baseball from the kind of situation we like where it’s all about handicapping, besides just historical and all that kind of stuff. I’m watching that and I’m like, you get to a point of the season and I’ve been there where you’re starting to look at things like that. Usually maybe early on in the season you’re 3-1, you just lost your first game of the season in an Arizona Diamondback style last night. You don’t go looking for 396 out of 397 pitches, you led the game. When you start getting that bad luck, you start digging for that crap. I keep telling Dave, man, just stay with it because we’ve all been on the right side that lost several times throughout our careers. Yeah, I felt bad for the guy last night. I’m laughing but I’m not laughing at him. I’m just going to laugh- I’m more worried that Dave has his little umpire pitch counter with him and he’s counting 396 pitches. [inaudible 00:32:56]
That’s great. We’re going to put base winner down. He’s got the Padres in the second leg of his parlay. Good luck to you my man on that one. All right, let’s get to the questions real quickly here. Rahrah wants to know a quick thought here about the Indians and Royals. Any thoughts here? Scott, base winner, jump in. Go with, yeah, so don’t get confused. First of all, it’s Cody Morris for the Cleveland Guardians against Zach Greinke, not Zach Morris from Saved by the Bell. Just make sure there. Now we know where his TV viewing is, okay. I have it, well, you knew who the character was TC so you know too. Anyway, I’ve got it priced a Cleveland -195, but I just can’t play against Greinke, the guys a wizard. His sabermetric numbers look awful, but every time he goes out there he’s able to suppress runs. It’s a no play for me, although my model likes Cleveland. See TC, you and I are sick son of a guns. We’re watching Reservoir Dogs and Pulp Fiction and stuff like that in our twenties and Mark’s over here watching Saved by the Bell. I think TC watches it. He knew who Zach Morris was. I just got in my head, not my genre Mark, to be honest with you. I don’t know. I look at this and I’m thinking I can’t back KC because Greinke’s been a little bit banged up, not a big Morris fan. I did make that about 148. What did you say it is now? It’s about 140ish, I think right around there. Pretty close to my line. I would probably tend to lean towards the over if I had to get involved in this game, but I’m staying away from it. Ed’s got a really good question here. He’s talking about this Philly’s game which you guys are playing today. He says all the numbers point to Philly, but the line is pretty much against them. They go, how much does line movement factor into your handicapping? I’m curious to get both of you guys take and I’ll throw mine in there as well, but real quick, Scott, you factor that in? Yeah, I’ve said on this show when I first started doing this show with you guys, and I’ve said on many shows throughout the last several years that I like to get all my handicapping done for the next day’s action, whether it be basketball, pro or college, early in the week in football, baseball, that kind of stuff. I’m up working until one or two in the morning Pacific time because about 85% of the time when you’ve been in this business for 25 or 30 years, you’re going to beat that line move. Then I saw this morning where the money was coming in a little bit on Miami, so I started digging for lineups even though they’re not ready to release those yet, looking for injuries, things of that nature. The only thing I thought is I wonder if I should reduce this to a first five and go there, but I decided to go full game anyway on that parlay. I really don’t. I mean, if I see something where it feels like sharp action is coming against me, I want to know about it. I usually stick to my guns for the most part. Yep, base winner. Yeah, Scott brings up a really good point about the line movement and if you’ve been in the game and I think if you’re doing it right you can usually beat the line. It was really kind of a hard decision for me and this happened probably about six or seven years ago. I always like, I know TC, we’ve talked about it on the show before, to wait until the lineups are posted then you’re getting complete precision that way. If you put the games out the night before like I do or Scott pretty much the night before, I think Scott stays up till 3:00 AM so I guess it’s same day but early, you sacrifice that lineup precision but I found that I was losing line value by waiting, waiting, waiting and so I made that decision to put them out early and to get back to Ed’s question about what line movement means to my results, I find that when I’m beating the line and I do that about, I think this year it’s about 75% of the time with the overnight plays, the plays have a better result, better return. It is concerning and Scott’s like, well gosh, what am I missing here when you see the line move the other way? It’s kind of concerning on this one, but I mean I don’t know why people would bet on Miami in this game, I just can’t see it. Maybe this is true for you too. If I start looking and it’s a great question by the way Ed, and we all appreciate the question. If I look at a game like this and I pull off, even though I see no significant injuries to the pen, pen hasn’t been overused, nothing wrong with the starting pitcher that I’m backing. If you start backing off your plays because of line movement and this has obviously got to be some sharper action. Nobody’s out there running it off the streets at nine o’clock in the morning Pacific Time betting the Miami Marlins on the road against the Phillies so you know the action is in square action punching out tickets. The bottom line is if you start analyzing all of those line moves and the 15% of the time it goes against you, man, it’s paralysis by analysis. All of a sudden you’re scrambling to find games that fit everything and so I just ride with it. It’s a time cost too, Scott. It is. That’s good, that’s a good point. Yeah, I think so many people get caught up with, okay, well the line moved in this way now it’s going to scare me off my bet. It factors zero into my handicap and it goes back to me just being able to trust my own handicap. I don’t care what somebody else is doing. If they’re going to move the line or whatever and I think that’s what Ed’s talking about, is that going to scare you off your play if you see the line moving in the opposite direction of a game that you like and for me it… You can’t let it bump you off your play. It doesn’t. I’m going to like my play. I’m going to like my play and if I see other people betting, going the other way, that doesn’t scare me at all. It just shows you that again, you have to trust yourself and not really rely on, oh, just this is where the sharp action’s going. I mean you got to remember, money makes the line move and you get some guys that know what they’re doing, but you get a lot of guys that don’t know what they’re doing. Scott and I know a lot of those guys like celebrities who will fire $100,000, $200,000 a game that’s going to move the line. I’m not going to say the name of the actor, but he’s extremely well known and there’s nobody that is listening or watching the show or the guy’s on the show with me who wouldn’t know him if I said his name, probably his initials. He was a client of mine several years ago and the guy would go out and he bet a quarter of a million on a game one day and bet $200 eight team parlays the next day. He was all over the place. When he would bet that big chunk of money that one particular day, the line would move. Yeah, I mean I’ve told people this before. I’ve had people ask me, Hey, you like team A and football at -3, It’s down to one and a half. Do you still like it? Well yeah, I like it more. I like it more. I capped it at three, there’s no injuries, it’s now one and a half. Trust your own handicap would be my advice. Finally, real quick, Joel’s talking about Kershaw on a short leash. What do you think is going to happen with him? Seems like he’s always been on a short leash until the postseason again with the back injury, not fully trusting Kershaw. One of the reasons why I didn’t want get on him today because he’s probably going to go five innings again. Any quick thoughts on that before we wrap up and go to the best bets guys about Clayton? Cobb’s been good. I mean, I’d take the dog in this game. Cobb has good numbers by my model. Maybe San Francisco plus a run and a half in this particular spot might not be a bad idea because I’m with you TC, I can’t back Kershaw at this big of a price or lay a run and a half when there’s a good chance he’s out somewhere in the fifth or sixth inning. All right, great questions guys, really appreciate that. Remember, we’re here, of course, Monday through Friday, 12 noon eastern, nine Pacific here. Make sure you click that bell, get the notifications when we go live. Recapping our best bets for this Wednesday as follows. Got a lot of parlay action going today as well too. That’s really the way, like we talked about before, a smart way to play when you have these very inflated lines. Scott’s going to be on the Tampa Bay Rays and the Phillies, that’s going to give him a +164 on the buyback there. Very smart there. Base winner the exact same thing. Phillies to Yu Darvish and the Padres +147. I’m going to lay a run and a half with the Astros. Don’t traditionally like to do that, but again, certain spots feels good. Feels good today with Javier going against Ragans. Those are our best plays. All right guys. Appreciate everyone for joining us again. We’ll be back at it again tomorrow as we know. Follow us individually on Twitter, of course the show at BetUS TV as well too. For Scott Spreitzer, the base winner. Good luck with you guys tonight. Good luck to our viewers out there as well too. TC Martin saying so long, The MLB Show here on BetUS TV. TC Martin:
Mark:
TC Martin:
Mark:
TC Martin:
Scott Spreitzer:
Mark:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Mark:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Mark:
TC Martin:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Mark:
TC Martin:
Mark:
TC Martin:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Mark:
TC Martin:
Mark:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Mark:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Mark:
Scott Spreitzer:
Mark:
TC Martin:
Mark:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Scott Spreitzer:
Mark:
Scott Spreitzer:
Mark:
TC Martin:
Mark:
TC Martin:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Mark:
TC Martin:
Scott Spreitzer:
Mark:
Scott Spreitzer:
Mark:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Mark:
TC Martin:
Mark:
Scott Spreitzer:
Mark:
TC Martin:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Mark:
TC Martin:
Mark:
TC Martin:
Mark:
Scott Spreitzer:
Mark:
TC Martin:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Mark:
Scott Spreitzer:
Mark:
Scott Spreitzer:
Mark:
TC Martin:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
Mark:
Scott Spreitzer:
TC Martin:
THE LOCKER ROOM SPORTS BETTING NEWS, STATS, ODDS & FREE PICKS
MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Baseball Betting Odds [Wednesday September 7th]
NBA Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
