MLB Picks, Predictions & Best Betting Odds [Thursday August 18]

TC Martin:

A Dan Majerle reference on this. I didn’t know we’d get that, Jeff. We got a basketball reference and an old school Dan Majerle reference from Basewinner. I like that.

Mark Borchard:

Go Dan, dude. He was awesome.

Jeff Nadu:

Dan was a great player, great shooter. Did some great things at Grand Canyon, who have one of the greatest home court advantages in America. They’re the only for-profit university in America, and they’ve been a nice story over the years. But Dan Marley, from what I understand, is a good guy. I also remember years ago, not a lot of people know this but Rony Seikaly who played for the Heat for a long period of time, he is now a world renowned DJ. He’s a big techno DJ and a guy from that era as well. I used to like those Heat teams. Tim Hardaway, some of those guys. I always enjoyed those teams.

TC Martin:

Rony Seikaly, pride of Syracuse. There you go. Look at this. A Seikaly reference and a Dan Marley reference, and Grand Canyon gets a shout out on The MLB Show as well too. Not sure, I guess Grand Canyon has a baseball program. I would think they-

Mark Borchard:

No, they do. They do. Yeah. Yep.

TC Martin:

Good stuff.

Mark Borchard:

Good school. They’ve really cleaned up. That’s an awful area of Phoenix, and they’ve bought a bunch of land and cleaned it up. They’ve done a good job, and hat’s off to Grand Canyon University as a Phoenician.

TC Martin:

Right, right. So Marvin Menzies, he’s a former coach at UNLV, good friend of mine, he actually ended up going to assist Dan after he was let go by UNLV at Grand Canyon.

Jeff Nadu:

Menzies was great at New Mexico State years ago.

TC Martin:

Yes he was.

Jeff Nadu:

He’s a great coach.

TC Martin:

And I’ll tell you what else, and you can appreciate this Jeff, probably both of you guys. Marvin Menzies can cook up a storm with some catfish and some stuff. I’m telling you. This guy, went over his house. He invited me over, I couldn’t believe the spread he put out, everything from ribs to oxtail. And I was afraid to try the oxtail because I don’t usually venture out with stuff like that. I got to admit man, pretty good stuff. Marvin Menzies can hook it up-

Jeff Nadu:

Hey TC, trivia question. Where’s Marvin Menzies a coach now?

TC Martin:

It is funny that you say that because in my mind while I was telling this story, I’m going where is Marvin? And he is somewhere, and now I’ve got a blank. Give it to me.

Jeff Nadu:

He’s at UMKC, the Roos.

TC Martin:

Kansas City. Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

Took over for Billy Donlon, who went to Clemson. He’s a good coach. That’s a decent team, so he’ll do well there. But I didn’t know he could cook. Interesting.

TC Martin:

Yeah, yeah. Very much so, big time. All right guys, let’s talk a little bit of Major League Baseball here today. How about last night? We talked yesterday about are the Yankees finally going to show up? Are they going to have the bats explode?

Jeff Nadu:

I knew it.

TC Martin:

Well, they did, but it was late last night and they fell behind again 4-0. And you’re probably thinking here we go again, Yankees fans getting restless. All of a sudden they chip away, they tie it up 4-4 late. And then it goes to extras and Tampa gets three runs in the tenth. If you got the Yankees, you’re just saying, “Are you kidding me? Here we go again.” And then Josh Donaldson, grand slam bottom of the 10th, game flies over and the Yankees get a one run victory. But very strange game. I didn’t get a chance to see any of it, obviously, last night. But any thoughts on that, guys? Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I ended up playing this over last night and I was just irritated. The Yankees just couldn’t do anything. And then I saw it was 4-4 and it was going to be a winner, but it couldn’t have happened to a worse person, Aroldis Chapman, who just continues to be very poor for the Yankees. But that was a huge win for them. It was a wild game for both New York teams. The Mets who were cruising at one point, Ottavino gives up a big three run shot and they start to make that interesting. It was 6-5 at one point, but the Mets were able to add on a few. But both New York teams had some barn burners last night. It was an interesting day in baseball. There were some interesting games, but that was a big win for the Yankees. Really needed it.

TC Martin:

Basewinner, is this something you feel that will now start to propel the Yankees?

Mark Borchard:

All I got to say is where was Josh Donaldson’s grand slam on Monday night for us, TC?

TC Martin:

Thank you. Thank you.

Mark Borchard:

Really. Hey, the team’s good. They’re still in the top five in offensive ratings. The bullpen’s struggled, but I think that they have a ceiling there. You saw at the beginning of the year they were one of the best bullpens in baseball, so it’s just a matter of iron ironing that out. And then as far as the Mets game goes, you’re right on that, Jeff. The bullpen of the Mets, which is a decent bullpen, they almost gave that game up but then the Mets scored against a good Atlanta bullpen. I think Jackson Stephens was the culprit for the Braves with the Mets coming back. He pitched at Michael Jackson, Jackson Browne, or maybe even Andrew Jackson, one of the presidents of the United States you could have compared him to in his pitching last night. TC.

TC Martin:

How about Mark Jackson? You know who that is, Basewinner?

Mark Borchard:

I think he’s a coach. No, he played basketball in the NBA, I think. Right?

TC Martin:

He did, and a coach, and got a raw deal in Golden State as well, too. There you go. Just say that.

Jeff Nadu:

He didn’t just play basketball. He’s like a New York legend. He’s a playground legend. By the way, TC, you know his brother was one of the greatest street ballers ever, Escalade? He was this big, huge guy. He’s a legend, the Jacksons. They’re both legends.

TC Martin:

There you go. And Mark Jackson very prevalent now doing the broadcasting with ABC and ESPN, so good stuff there. Yeah. You guys mentioned the Mets yesterday. Handicapped that game, thought it was going to be easy, it was Scherzer against Odorizzi, and it wasn’t, butt that’s okay. Late rallies are good after you give up the lead, and the Mets got there yesterday so that was good. All right. Overall guys, yesterday felt pretty good. Went three and 0 on that, Jeff, one and one, and Basewinner a hard luck loser with the parlay with the Giants last night. Felt for you there my man, because you handicapped the first game perfectly.

Mark Borchard:

I let you guys down. It was going to be a perfect sweep. We have Rodon on the mound. Rodon strikes out 11, walks two, and somehow that you lose that game. Gosh. It’s time to get some luck here, TC.

Jeff Nadu:

I will say on that same vein, you see how close baseball can be and how close sometimes you are to winners and losers. Gonsolin doesn’t give up a run in the first five. The Dodgers just can’t score. I mean, Eric Lauer seemed to mystify them for some reason. And then wouldn’t you know it, naturally they score a run in the sixth inning. Just this is the baseball. This is baseball for you, just cruel at times.

TC Martin:

Cruel at times, and you don’t know how it goes.

Mark Borchard:

Well, I think you could say that though, Jeff. I don’t do the other sports, but I used to. I think you can say that about every sport. You think baseball’s a little bit tougher, huh?

Jeff Nadu:

I do because for instance, one of the reasons I love college football and college basketball is you can really spot mismatches. TC, you know this. If Michigan plays Temple, it’s likely that Michigan’s going to cruise. Look, they could give a touchdown later or something, but it’s likely they’re going to be in the lead and have major success. It just cruel how baseball works. Gonsolin was electric, but they couldn’t score any runs. It’s just I think baseball’s super tough. I’ve always thought that, but it’s something that I approach a little bit differently, and I just understand it is what it is. If that had been a full game, they probably would’ve blew it. It’s always something.

TC Martin:

Yeah. With basketball and football, you have so many possessions that you can feel that you can handicap it a little bit better, and a game’s not going to turn on one pitch or one possession.

Jeff Nadu:

You also have half time, which you can make adjustments-

TC Martin:

Absolutely.

Jeff Nadu:

… and do things. It’s just different.

TC Martin:

It is. But for football, an average offense is going to snap it 65 to 70 times and run plays, and again, it’s more handicappable. You can come back from deficits and that sort of thing. Baseball is strange. And remember guys, we’re talking about trying to hit a very small ball coming at you anywhere from 95 to 100 miles per hour, and if the pitcher’s on and pitcher’s off. It’s crazy, and 162 games. It’s very tough and you don’t know what you’re getting day in and day out as far as effort, mental aspects, physical aspects. It is a little bit tougher. And there you go, anytime you’re dealing with a money line too, that adds into it as well too. The point spread is the equivalent.

Mark Borchard:

It’s interesting how people… The college basketball free throw thing to me is just a nightmare. For basically that reason alone, I stay away from college basketball on the spread. Maybe play the money line a little bit, but the spreads are just awful.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m so fascinated by Mark, because mark, I don’t know if you know this but I’ve been like a proponent for years, the most important thing to me in college basketball when I bet is free throw efficiency and free throw shooting. And I’ve done different not necessarily models, but I’ve done different just looking into stats and comparing them to ATS results, and almost exclusively every year, the best teams in the country shoot it above 75% from the free throw line. I have a rule. I do not back anyone that shoots under 70%. I don’t care who they are. That’s one of the reasons over the years I don’t back Memphis, because they never shoot well for the free throw line. But no, there is a huge correlation between the free throw line. You cannot back teams under 70%.

TC Martin:

Yep. So true, Jeff. That is a great handicapping point. Yeah. Totally agree with you with that. All right guys, let’s take a look at what we got going today. We’re going to handicap four games on the docket today. A lot of early starts. We’re going to focus on the later starts here. Again, not a full schedule, but we’ve got some good matchups here today. So let’s start with the Dodgers and the Brewers. We talked about that game from last night, turned out to be a winner for the Dodger side. At least for me it was, and Gonsolin did his thing. Today, you got virtually a pick them here. The Dodgers -109. Andrew Heaney going for the Dodgers, Corbin Burnes, who normally is lights out and usually will get a lot of strikeouts, and Jeff will attest to that. So 109 for the Dodgers, minus 101 for the Brewers at BetUS. Total in this game, 7.5 shaded towards the under in this -120. Jeff, what do you think about the Dodgers and the Brewers today?

Jeff Nadu:

I’m just attacking this like I did with the Seattle game I bet the other night, just trying to find to me the better starting pitcher. And I’m starting to notice that Andrew Heaney seems to be coming back to earth a little bit. You look at his recent starts, he’s just not going very deep. In fact, in all of his starts this year, he’s only gotten past the fifth inning one time. You look at his last three starts, 11 innings, he’s given up 11 hits, six runs, three of them earned, and three walks. So he’s starting to have more base runners, he’s starting to give more hits up, starting to be more base path traffic. And this is a Brewers team, as we know, every game is very important. They’ve got their man on the mound today in Corbin Burnes.

Corbin Burnes, as we know, one of the most elite pitchers in baseball. You look at him at a home this year, opponents hitting just 189 against this guy. This guy’s been effective. And you look at him during day games this year, he has been just unhittable. Opponents hit 174 against him. We also look at the Dodger lineup, no Mookie Betts today, which you’d have to figure a day game after a night game, they’re going to take some guys out of there. So I look at the Brewers today in a very important situation, they’ve got their guy on the mound. Look, if you’re going to give me -101, -105 on Corbin Burnes, I don’t really care who he’s playing, I think the Brewers get it done here. I’m going to take them to win this game at a very good price with Burnes.

TC Martin:

All right. Basewinner?

Mark Borchard:

I agree with Jeff on that. I sent it out as a play overnight. I have it priced at -121. And I think he made a really good point about the day baseball in Milwaukee, and you have Corbin Burnes, who really has a good stuff. If you look at his home numbers, he’s got a 60 run suppression number, meaning he’s 40% better than average pitcher at home. And Heaney, I don’t necessarily think he will go deep today. That might not be the worst thing in the world. The Dodger bullpen is certainly formidable, but I’m hedging here because I’m almost thinking about adding a play.

I don’t think I’ve ever done it on this show, but I think I’m going to add the Brewers here today. I like the day splits. I think that’s a big deal at that park with the shadows there. TC, you might know a little bit more about that because you did so much work over there for years. But I think that judging on that, Heaney, he’s out pitched I guess his expectations. He’s got a 1.16 ERA to 2.94. I think that was good analysis by Jeff, and I think it’s going to push me over the edge. I’m going to add Milwaukee. I’m going to do it with my coffee. I’m going to add. Yeah, yeah. Add Milwaukee to the card, here. I tried, Jeff. I wasn’t as effective as you, but I tried.

TC Martin:

I like it. I think-

Jeff Nadu:

All good.

TC Martin:

… for Basewinner, for guy who usually doesn’t do that, we’ll say a Minor League variety there, that was good. I think so.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, but I think this is the first time I’ve added a play to the show. But I think that is a real in itself is a big point, how good he’s been in day games, because I think that those shadows are tough there. Have you ever been to a day game there, TC?

TC Martin:

Oh, many, many. So here’s the deal with that. You bring up a good point, but usually the shadows don’t come into play until later. Now, when they have these odd, and they do this on Saturday afternoons a lot, 3:00 Central Time start, that’s when that comes really into play. So when you have the 1:00 start, and I believe that’s the start today, guys. What is the exact start time?

Jeff Nadu:

2:10.

TC Martin:

So it’s a 2:10 Easter, so it’s 1:00 Central. Yeah. So the shadows won’t affect it whatsoever, and the roof will probably be open today. So you know what guys? I’m tempted to join you here.

Jeff Nadu:

Oh no. We never hit these all three.

TC Martin:

You want me to stay away?

Mark Borchard:

No, put it. Lay it. We’re due. We’re due.

TC Martin:

I’m going to add it. There it is right there. Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee, Brew Crew. Bernie Brewer riding down the slide. There we go with the music going in. There it is. Roll out the barrels, do the polka in the seventh inning. Let’s go Brew Crew. Blue and gold. Go old school uniforms today. Yeah. Corbin Burnes, Andrew Heaney. Mr. Heaney, always pick on that ham and egger when he was with the Angels. Mr. Heaney, old school reference, Green Acres. You know what I’m talking about, Basewinner? Can’t stand Andrew Heaney.

Mark Borchard:

Well, that was a better imitation of Jeff, I have to say.

TC Martin:

That wasn’t an imitation of Jeff. If that was that, then I’d just be doing the Italian slang, which I really don’t know that well. And maybe throw some ranch dressing on a French fry. All right. Let’s go Brewers.

Mark Borchard:

Okay. So we’re all on Milwaukee, I guess.

TC Martin:

We’re on Milwaukee. I was going to maybe add a different play, but I like this. See? There you go. This is what we do.

Mark Borchard:

Go for it. Why not?

TC Martin:

Spin off each other a little bit. All right. And guess what? If it blows, we’re blaming Nadu tomorrow.

Mark Borchard:

It’s all Jeff’s fault.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Like life usually is. No, just kidding, Jeff. All right. We got the Brewers today. 101, good price. Corbin Burnes. All right. No strikeout prop today, huh Nadu?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. This is such an interesting game because obviously, we know this is a very good lineup, and Corbin Burnes doesn’t get crushed really ever. I think he’s only given up more than four runs once this season. Look, if I’m going to play the strikeout prop it’s probably today. You probably may get a good number. Dodgers line up, middle of the road. Listen, I think anytime Burnes pitches, the strikeout prop will make sense to you but I’m just going to play them the win. I think without Betts, that’s concerning.

TC Martin:

I’ll tell you what pushed me over the edge on this guys, is you mentioned it Mookie Betts. When he’s out of the lineup and you don’t have your leadoff hitter, and now you’re going to insert Will Smith in the three spot there too today, that means you’re going to get Gavin Lux. And the Brewers got their A lineup out there today, so I think it works. We’ll give it a shot. All right, next up, Arizona and San Francisco. Zac Gallen going for the Diamondbacks, and the Giants going back with Logan Webb today. The Giants coming off that hard luck loss last night. 140 is the number in this one, total seven. Another low total today, and that’s because two good pitchers going today. Seven, -110 on either side.

Logan Webb, guys, has been good his last two. Actually, he’s been very good, and has been good with one good start against Arizona when he was at home, not so good when he was on the road. But he actually shut out Arizona and he went six innings, had eight strikeouts in that game. I think Logan Webb is going to show up again today. I mentioned before, he went through this little rut about three, four weeks ago. Seems like he’s out of that rut now, usually a good pitcher at home here. I think the Giants bounce back today, and I do like them. Also in the lineup today for the Giants is Yastrzemski and Estrada. They took the night off last night so they’re going to be back, and that’s huge for the Giants lineup. SF is healthy, pretty much as healthy as they’ve been. They’ve won five out of the last six games, and I love the addition of JD Davis to this Giants team. I think it’s a good spot for Logan Webb, good spot for the Giants today. I’m on the Giants. Basewinner, some thoughts.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. You mentioned Yastrzemski took the day off yesterday, and he actually took the day off but he was put in to pinch run in the bottom of the seventh inning, and he might as well have taken the day off because he got picked off a second base. So I had to get that out because the guy’s a pretty decent baseball player, comes from a great baseball family, gets picked off at second base. That could only happen-

TC Martin:

To him and Jose Altuve, that’s who.

Mark Borchard:

Brutality. So I think that he’s going to be ready to play today TC, to say the least. But anyway, my model has it at -172, so showing some value just from a pricing standpoint. And one of the things where we’re getting the value is the starting pitching. I’ve got Webb 40th out of 150 pitchers, and Gallen I’m not that high on. I only have him 73 out of 150 pitchers. And one of the things I wanted to mention about this is the handicap. And you talked about Webb and how good he’s been at home, and he really has been good at home. He’s got a 71 run suppression number, so he’s 29% better than an average pitcher.

And then you go over and look at Gallen’s road splits, and he’s actually 7% worse than an average pitcher by the Basewinner ERA. So I think that all plays into it. The one thing that I was concerned about on this game is Zach Gallen’s location plus number. It’s in that top quartile. And I usually don’t bet against that, but if you look at Webb, Webb’s in the 61 percentile from a location plus, so he’s right there with him. I think we get a bullpen edge as well, and I think we have an edge offensively, TC. So for all those reasons, you put it in the mixer, I’m willing to lay the sauce here at 140 and I got to go with the Giants here, TC.

TC Martin:

The mixer is back. That’s the first mixer reference we had in probably a week and a half, Basewinner. I missed the mixer. That’s good. And the sauce is back.

Mark Borchard:

I’ll try to use it more for you, TC. All right.

TC Martin:

I love the mixer. There you go. Jeff, who you got in your mixer? I think you’re muted, Jeff. Jeff, I think you’re muted.

Jeff Nadu:

All right. Do you guys know, I have a story about a mixer if you’d like to hear it.

TC Martin:

Of course.

Jeff Nadu:

Okay. So obviously, if anybody knows, when you’re a mason at certain points, you’re laying bricks, you hook a small cement mixer to the back of a truck. So when my dad was young, my dad quit school in the eighth grade, didn’t go to high school, he started working for a masonry company as a laborer. My father came from a rough upbringing, that sort of thing, so he starts working. He’s 14 trying to work, keep a job. And he’s mixing cement, carrying bricks, things like that. I think he made $4 an hour he told me. And one day he’s using the cement mixer. You have to hand crank it and all that sort of thing. At one point, he moves his hand and gets his hand caught in the mixer and it ripped his pinky and ring finger off.

And my dad said he was so worried about getting fired that he wrapped the gauze around his hand with a towel and just kept working, and the blood was gushing everywhere. And the foreman, who was my dad’s mentor, basically came over and said, “What the hell is wrong with your hand? Why are you bleeding so much?” He goes, “Ah, it’s fine. I’m good.” He goes, “You got to get to a hospital.” And my dad said he was so worried about getting fired that he wouldn’t say anything, but he ended up having to go anyway. But every time I see a cement mixer, I think about that. But that being said, I don’t have much in this game. I hate the Giants. I think this team’s just average. I have no interest in backing them. And I actually like Gallen, for that matter. You guys will probably win, but I just don’t have much interest to land 145-ish with the San Francisco Giants. If it’s a flip maybe, but I just don’t think they’re very good.

TC Martin:

I was high on Gallen early on in the season. I think he’s regressed a little bit. I think a good spot there today. Basewinner, is your mixer of the cement mixer variety when you’re talking about it, or are you more of a blender? Is that mixer?

Mark Borchard:

I was thinking more mixer like a cocktail mixer. That’s the one I’m thinking.

TC Martin:

That’s what I was thinking. Yeah, yeah. Good. I’m glad because just the thought of Jeff’s story now, I’m-

Mark Borchard:

It’s going to ruin it every time I mention a mixer. But the mixer is more like Tom Cruise, Cocktail, that sort of thing.

Jeff Nadu:

To this day guys, he eventually got it all fixed up, but he has no fingernails on either ring or pinky fingers.

TC Martin:

Sorry to hear that.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. It is what it is. Nah, he’s tough. That was a long time ago.

TC Martin:

He’s a Nadu. He’s tough. There you go.

Jeff Nadu:

No, listen, my dad’s the toughest guy on earth.

TC Martin:

All right. I’m taking the Giants today, so you can put me down for Logan Webb, the Giants today against Arizona, and Basewinner is on it too. There you go. We have identical cards today, Basewinner and I. Look out. It’s either going to be a good day tomorrow or bad day.

Mark Borchard:

We were identical. That’s good.

TC Martin:

Identical twins, look out, minus the glasses. There you have it. Next up, Toronto and the Yankees. Yankees going to try build little momentum after their late night come from behind victory against the Rays, and now here comes Toronto limping in. And the Yankees, $1.40 favorite. Kind of funny guys, that we’re seeing these lines coming back down to Earth for the Yankees. I shouldn’t say come back down to Earth because they’ve never been low all season long because the Yankees jumped out to that red hot start this year, and you’re looking at Yankees 140. And you saw that yesterday with the Tampa Bay low line as well too. 8.5 is the total here in this one. You’ve got Berrios going against Montas.

One of the reasons why this line is what it is, because obviously the Yankees are still struggling, and Frankie Montas is a guy that we know is not healthy and the Yankee’s are going to trot him out there again. Yankees continue to have their pitching woes. Mentioned a rolled as Aroldis Chapman blowing up last night. We’ve talked about the Yankee bullpen woes for a while, and this all goes back to Michael King not being there. That’s when the Yankees had a good bullpen. But Clay Holmes really has never been a good reliever and he got away with it earlier on, and we’re seeing the Yankees for who they are now. I think this is interesting game. How do you guys handicap this one? We’ll start with you, Basewinner.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. You make an interesting point about that, TC, and Michael King leaving. And you wonder, from a quantification standpoint you can quantify it and say well, King’s worth this much to this bullpen, but how much is it worth to the whole flow of the bullpen, the whole rotation of the bullpen? And I think you might have something there as far as disrupting the chemistry of the bullpen because when these bullpens are on, I think they’re delicate things, actually. You saw this Atlanta bullpen last year. They powered that team through the playoffs. And so it’s interesting to see how that Yankee bullpen.

And I was the biggest proponent of that bullpen. They looked good by every number that I had in the first two months of the season, and they’ve really crashed to earth. So I think that’s worth pondering at least. How much is one guy, even though you only quantify it as one guy, how much does he affect the whole chemistry of the team? As far as this game goes, it’s a tough call for me. I’ve got a price at -128. My inclination is to go with the Blue Jays. I like Berrios at a 91 percentile from a locations plus standpoint, I just don’t see enough value in it to make a play. So that’s where I stand on this game. But I think that was a good observation about Michael King, TC.

TC Martin:

And just the final point on that is it’s really quantified now more than ever because of the way managers use the bull pen. It’s such a specialty game now, where if you lose your setup guy or you lose your closer, it means everything because we know that starters now are only going to go five or maybe six innings max, and with a pitch count coming in at 100, they’re not going to go beyond a hundred. So it really is more important now than probably it ever has been, and you need to handicap that. And I know you guys do a great job of always talking about, “Hey, I’m going to go a first five play because I don’t trust this bullpen,” or whatever. The bullpens are key. And when you take out one guy, even though he is not your closer, even if he’s the setup guy or the hold guy, it factors in big time, more so now than it ever has been. Jeff, some thoughts on the game?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I’m going to add the over, 8.5. I look at both these pitchers, Basewinner discussed Berrios a little bit. Look, truth of the matter though is last time out against the Yankees, he got crushed. Look at his last two starts. I don’t know if he can get anything worse than this. Seven and two-thirds, 13 earn runs, opponents hitting 412 off of him. He’s starting to just continue to crumble. This guy’s not had a good year, and we continue to see the downfall of this guy. You look at Montas, this his first game in Yankee Stadium. Never pitched here as a Yankee yet, had two road starts.

You have a game here with two teams that are very home run reliant. I think second and sixth in the major leagues at home runs. We saw the Yankees get off last night, so I think we see some runs in this game. Two starters I’m not real high on. I think they both have flaws. Two big time lineups here. 8.5 doesn’t seem real high when you have two of these offenses going, so I’m going to hope for a 6-5 type of game. I’m going over.

TC Martin:

And also, let’s say add in two faltering teams. We talk a lot about the Yankees even though they got the win last night, but Toronto has struggled. Again, going back to firing their manager weeks ago and they’re scuffling, no George Springer at the top of the lineup. It’s tough. Okay. Yeah. I agree with you with the pitching side as well, too. Both guys can get lit up in a heartbeat, no question. All right. Next up guys, let’s talk about the Mets and the Braves. We got some action on this one, and Jacob deGrom is on the hill for the Mets, and Max Fried is coming off the IL after missing the start due a concussion. And the Mets $1.20 favorite. The Mets got one of the wins last night. They lost the first two games in the series and actually scored total of one run.

Got shut out on Monday, scored one run on Tuesday, but they erupted last night in a good ball game, so a good win for the Mets last night. Total on this one is a low one. It is seven. Handicapped Max Scherzer yesterday, today it’s the same type of handicap for me with Jacob deGrom. He’s lethal. He’s been fantastic. Since his return, he has been lights out. Three starts, he’s given up a total of three runs, six hits. He’s had 28 strikeouts and only one walk. And throw these numbers into the mixer there, Mark. Last two seasons he has dominated the Braves. Now, when you look at this you might say, “Well, wait a minute. Runs, victories, all that sort of thing.” When I mean dominated, he has fooled the Braves hitters. I’ve talked a lot about Atlanta being a swing and miss team and deGrom the perfect guy, and he has silenced them from a strikeout perspective.

Here’s his numbers in his last four starts against the Braves, going back to this year and the last two years, I should say. 12 strikeouts, 14 strikeouts, six strikeout game, 10 and eight strikeouts. He is so reminiscent of Verlander, and I want to give the Mets credit for what they’ve done, just the way that Houston has done with Verlander. They took their sweet time in bringing these guys out, they didn’t want to rush them back. You got to remember that deGrom hasn’t pitched in a calendar year. Think about that. He was out last July and he’s back, and since he’s gotten back, he has been downright fantastic. Mets want to win this game. They want a chance for the series split here. Max Friend, I was a Fried guy earlier on. He’s come back to earth. He missed a start, like I said, because of the concussion, but he’s been very hittable his last five starts, and he’s going to be facing the Mets for the fourth time this season. So I think it’s a good spot for deGrom. This is basically a play on deGrom for the Mets here. Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I didn’t quite understand the opener in this game. Opener was a flip game. deGrom’s the best starter in baseball. I don’t know how that was the price. And look, this number’s been bet up to, as you alluded to, 130. People agree with you, smart people agree with you, and I agree with you and I’m adding this play. I think it’s nuts that you’re going to get deGrom at this price. Look, Friend is a solid kid. He’s a good, young guy, but as you alluded to, he’s not been unhittable by any means lately. He struggled last time out against the Mets over six innings. Look, I’ll take the Mets lineup over to Braves, and I think the bullpens are mostly a flip. So give me deGrom. I love watching this guy. I’ll actually probably watch this game if I’m actually around. I might be at the Sports Book, maybe I’ll catch this game on the TV. I love the Mets here. I’m going to add this one as well.

TC Martin:

Pace winner, clean sweep again.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I think this is a gift. You guys made really good points about Jacob deGrom. Just to quantify it, I’ve never seen numbers like this on anybody in my 15 years of baseball handicapping. He’s got a run suppression number of 19. That’s 80% better than an average pitcher. You look at his Basewinner ERA this year in his three games, 0.72. They’re just gaudy numbers. You’ve got to play him, and I’m going to play him on the first five. I don’t want to mess around with that bullpen. I think that the worst thing for me would be to have to deGrom strike out 12 guys and be up 2-0 and then the bullpen blow it, so I’m going to go ahead and play it on the first five. I got to pay a little bit more, -125 on the juice, but I think it’s worth it.

The other thing too is sometimes you see these high strikeout, low walk guys and they have power numbers, they give up some power. We talk about that with Garrett Cole, But his home runs suppression numbers, it’s a 28. That’s 72% better than average. ISO power, 60% better than average. There’s really no hole in this guy’s game, and if he loses today, it’s going to be so out of character. I have it priced the full game -180. I’m not going to tell you guys what I have at priced for the first five innings, because it’s unbelievably high. I see this thing winning at least four out of five times, and so -125. Give me some of that, TC.

TC Martin:

All right. Strong all the way across for all three of us with Jacob deGrom today for the Mets. Lock us all in on deGrom and the Mets at a very reasonable price, laying 120 on the road.

Jeff Nadu:

We have the ability to have a very big day here if certain things can go the way we want it. We’re very correlated across the board, guys. If Giants, Milwaukee and the Mets all win, we’re going to be sitting pretty.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Someone’s buying ice cream. There you go. You got to like it.

Mark Borchard:

Parlay time, guys.

Jeff Nadu:

Yes, Mark. I

Mark Borchard:

Frontline parlay.

Jeff Nadu:

Can’t disagree.

TC Martin:

All right. Let’s go to the questions. Hit us in the chat room. Love to hear from you. Give us some thoughts and some questions, and we’ll them him for you. Let’s start with Tim. Timothy Keller wants to know what do you think Basewinner, do you use SIERA?

Mark Borchard:

I think SIERA is pretty good. It’s called skill interactive earned run average, and it’s a good metric. I don’t personally use it. My numbers correlate with that. I think most of these expected ERAs will use a mix of strikeouts, walks, and some combination of fly balls, home runs, that sort of thing. And I like my number a little bit better. It’s cleaner, it’s easier for me to understand. I think SIERA gets a little bit complex, and I don’t think it that you get the utility from the complexity, if that makes any sense, TC. So that’s to answer your question. But no, it’s not a bad number to use at all.

TC Martin:

Okay. Good. Handicapping tools are good. All right. Tariq’s asking us about the Astros today, Astros and White Sox. This is a game where I’m looking at both starting pitchers guys, and I was very close to adding this game. The over in this game, a little surprised that it’s only eight. We got day baseball in Chicago, it’s going to be a warm day. Garcia has been given up an average of four runs. You look at his ERA overall in the season is four runs, and Lucas Giolito is one of those guys that’s always been hit and miss. Remember him coming up with the Nationals and they sent him off to Chicago, threw a no-hitter, and then after that he was dreadful. Giolito is very, very hittable.

If you look at a lot of his outings, he’s given up seven runs, six runs, five runs. This is who he is. He’s a fastball guy, and Astros are a good fastball hitting team. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Astros got to him today. The only reason I’m not backing the Astros at a very good price, kind of kicking myself that I didn’t get on Valdez last night, it would’ve made me real happy, would’ve gone 4-0 and I thought about it, but 20th straight quality start for Valdez. You don’t get that with Garcia, so I think more of a lean towards the over in that game today. Any quick thoughts about White Sox-Astros, guys?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. You’re making me think probably the Astros over the team total. I was trying to grab what the line was on that. Giolito, he was a pitcher that was just awful and people were making jokes about him, and then he turned All-Star, and now maybe he’s turned into making jokes about him again. One of the concerning things if you’re a White Sox backer is Giolito’s location plus number, which is in the bottom quartile, and I think that’s almost the kiss of death. So I’m leaning towards playing the Astros team total over here, personally.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t have much on it. I think it’s a flip at this point, which is crazy because the Sox are playing so well. We know how good Houston is, but I think the pitchers are a wash. Both teams seeing the ball, it’s good teams. I don’t have much on it. I think it’s a major flip, [inaudible 00:36:52]

TC Martin:

I think like I said, you can ask each team to get to four. You should. I think the over, 8, makes a lot of sense with this game. That’s the way I would lean.

Mark Borchard:

Do you see a coin flip there, both teams scoring? That’s how you look at it, TC?

TC Martin:

I can see this being a 7-5 type of game. I can definitely see that because the white Sox bats have come alive, and Garcia, again, he’s been giving up a lot of runs as of late. Again, you can make a case for the Astros, that they’re going to get out of here with a split of the series, or you can make the case that day baseball, both teams are hitting the ball very, very well. And again, both pitchers are hittable, so that’s why I lean towards the over here. I thought this thing would come in at 8.5 or maybe even a 9, and it’s only eight. So just ask each team to get to four runs. I think that can happen, should happen. And again, a lot of these games, the first three games at night have been low scoring games. Both these teams, as we know, they can explode. And day baseball in Chicago is a little bit different story, so makes sense. In my opinion it does. Tariq also wants to know about the Orioles, guys. Any thoughts about the Os, Jeff? Orioles-Cubs today.

Jeff Nadu:

I lean Os, just because the Cubs are just so bad. But again, these are rough games, guys. I’ve really narrowed my thought on where I’m looking right now. I want to bet good pitchers, solid baseball teams. I lean Orioles, but no interest.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Basewinner, quick thoughts?

Mark Borchard:

I put this out on my chart yesterday and I’ll just let everybody know that watches the show, if you go over to Basewinner.com, sign up to get the chart, there’s no cost on it and you get the chart with a lot of good numbers, a lot of good overnight plays. And I put the Cubs out last night, +1.5. I like this game. I’ve got the Orioles priced at -106. One of the things I like about Sampson is that location plus number. He’s in the 81st percentile. Spenser Watkins, I know we’ve joked about him not being able to spell his name, TC, but location plus number below average. I’m looking at these teams’ offenses and I actually like the Cubs offense better than the Orioles offense. But I think what’s what kept me off it for the show, TC, is the Orioles have just really defied gravity this year, so it’s hard to really have conviction playing against them, especially at home. So that’s why I left it off the show, but it was an overnight play for me, TC.

TC Martin:

All right. Jefferson’s asking about thoughts on Cy Young McClanahan. I don’t have McClanahan going today. I’ve got Patino going, the Rays going with the opener so to speak again here today. I don’t know what you guys have.

Mark Borchard:

I’ve got Patino, but don’t get me going on the Cy Young thing because I’ll beat the drum for 10 minutes on why Shohei Ohtani should win it. And I know you guys just totally don’t like my take on it so I’ll stop, but I think Shohei should win the American League Cy Young. McClanahan, at least by my numbers, is not starting today.

TC Martin:

You guys? Come on, Basewinner. Have I ever ripped you for talking about Ohtani?

Mark Borchard:

No. Well, you banged the drum, you’re a Verlander drum banger. I don’t know about Jeff, actually. Sorry Jeff, I attacked you and I don’t really know what your take is.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. We talked about-

TC Martin:

Scott feels that way, I think.

Jeff Nadu:

We talked about that super early. I don’t have much problem with it. The AL’s a little different. The NL is where all the great pitchers are to me, as far as deGrom and Burnes and guys like that. But I don’t have a huge issue, but he’s not pitching today, so therefore I have nothing here.

TC Martin:

Right, right. All right, let’s see. Leron wants a question about Adam Wainwright today, over 5.5 Ks. What do you guys think? And I was very close to pulling the trigger on the Cardinals, and I still may today. See the lineups here, Cardinals looking good, sweeping the Rockies. And again, Senzatela, I don’t like him at all. It’s a big price for the Cardinal though. Why not wait?

Mark Borchard:

Not? You got to be smoking sinsemilla to like Senzatela. I don’t see how you can like the guy, TC. As far as this game goes, I put it out overnight. Last night it was at -185. It’s gone up to -210, so I think maybe the value’s sucked out of that. But Wainwright has been fantastic. And I was probably one of his detractors, I guess is the right word for it, but he’s really proven himself this year. 87% run suppression number. 87 percentile location plus number. I’d bet the over. He’s asking about the strikeout prop, I’d bet the over there, TC.

TC Martin:

Yeah. Wainwright, outstanding in his last start. Jeff, any thoughts?

Jeff Nadu:

Only strikeout prop I’m interested in is what Rodon or Burnes or someone like that. I lean Cardinals here, but these questions are rough. They’re rough questions here today.

TC Martin:

We welcome all questions.

Mark Borchard:

I don’t think they’re very hard at all. I love the question and answers, guys. Keep them coming.

TC Martin:

There you go. All right guys, let’s wrap things up today. Let’s give you our best bets. And we’re like a harmony group today because we’re singing in unison. This is crazy. One of these days. All right, so let’s go through it. So Jeff started us off banging the drum like Bernie Brewer sliding down the slide. He likes the Brewers today. So Basewinner jumped on it, I jumped on it, so we all like the Brew Crew today.

Mark Borchard:

Wow. Yep.

TC Martin:

There you go. Basewinner is coming with me today. We are just joined hand in hand. I don’t know if that’s a good thing or a bad thing. We both like the Giants and we like the Mets today, so we are going to get on that. And is that right, you are a first five play only on the Mets, Basewinner?

Mark Borchard:

I’m playing first five on the Mets, and I jumped on the Brewers. And I don’t know if Scott’s going to be too happy if he sees this. He says, “I don’t want Basewinner’s picks.” That’s funny.

TC Martin:

These are Basewinner’s picks.

Jeff Nadu:

Just to confirm also, I have added the Mets and the over in the Yankees-Blue Jay’s game, which is all updated on the record. I guess I thought they could change it during the show, but either way, whatever. There you go. Hey, can I say one thing, breaking news here? I’m just trying to understand this. Maybe you guys can tell me. Explain how Deshaun Watson gets 11-game suspension and a $5 million fine. Think about this. Calvin Ridley gets a 17-game suspension and is fined over $11 million. Make that make sense, TC.

TC Martin:

Hard to make sense. I think when you have a civil lawsuit, things that have been settled out of court and there’s no criminal charges here-

Jeff Nadu:

But there’s no criminal charges with Ridley either.

TC Martin:

I understand that. Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

Crazy.

TC Martin:

I don’t know the answer to that. And again, we’ve seen a lot of this with suspensions, especially in the NFL, where they’re really not correlated. Major League Baseball, I will say that, and even the NBA, a fight breaks out, something happens, guy’s busted for something, they’re usually more uniformly correlated I guess, so to speak, whatever you want to say here. But the NFL is weird because again, remember, Roger Goodell can do whatever he wants to do. You can go have arbitration, but at the end of the day, Goodell can come back and say, “You know what? I’m the commissioner. I can do that.” And it says that in the collected bargaining agreement, so that’s weird.

So Goodell tries to play nice, “Well, we’ll let this go through the process. We’ll go through that,” this and that. Okay, wait a minute. No, I don’t like it. I’m going to appeal it. Boom, and that’s why it’s 11 games. It was six, and you think the Players Association would say, “Okay, well it’s six. End of story.” No, no, no. I have the power being Goodell to make it more than that. And that’s the difference pretty much between the NFL and Major League Baseball and the NBA. It’s crazy. I don’t know, but good point. That is a great point, and I’m going to bring that up on my show today and talk about that.

Mark Borchard:

What are your guys thoughts about-

TC Martin:

Call in, Jeff. I want your thoughts on that.

Mark Borchard:

So let’s try to bring it back to baseball here, because what about Trevor Bauer? There was the thorough investigation of the allegations and they were false allegations, and the court came out, the city of Pasadena said, “Hey, the girl’s lying.” And so he can’t even play in baseball anymore? I think he got a raw deal. That’s my point.

Jeff Nadu:

Listen, this is a major problem not only in sports, but just a major problem in general. Particularly in sports, if some individual is wrongly accused of something, someone blatantly commits a crime and lies to the police about it, how on Earth? If I’m Trevor Bower, I’m suing whoever, plus I’m suing the MLB for lost wages. This is ridiculous.

Mark Borchard:

What an awful precedent. It’s like, no, you-

Jeff Nadu:

That’s what I was going to say.

Mark Borchard:

I agree with that.

Jeff Nadu:

I was just going to say that. It’s an awful precedence because it tells pretty much anyone and anyone that it really doesn’t matter what we say, and that’s the problem with this country anymore. People can say whatever they want, no one really looks into if it’s true or not, and we just continue to destroy people’s reputations over our own disgusting wants and needs. It’s really sickening. I feel bad for people like him. Look, if he ultimately did what she said and there was proof of it, then so be it. But it was wrong and obviously it didn’t happen, and why is he suspended? It’s just ridiculous.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. No, they did a thorough investigation and the guy gets acquitted, and then the commissioner Manfred, he’s like, “Oh, I’m above the law,” basically. That’s the way I interpret it to me. Anyway.

TC Martin:

It’s the exact same amount of games that Fernando Tatis got for doing the PEDs. We’re talking 80 games. Do you guys agree that these should be on par with each other?

Mark Borchard:

No. As far as Trevor Bauer, I think Trevor Bauer should be allowed to play.

TC Martin:

You know what I’m saying? It’s the same suspension, basically. It’s 80 games and 80 games, right?

Mark Borchard:

I think Bauer’s out indefinitely. I don’t think they’ve put a timeframe on it.

TC Martin:

I thought it was 80 as well too.

Mark Borchard:

I think Manfred just says, “Well, you’re out until I say you’re back in,” which that’s just a terrible way to run a league.

Jeff Nadu:

The league mentioned in April he was suspended 324 games, which is basically indefinitely. And again, this-

TC Martin:

It’s different for a pitcher because it kind of equates to the same thing.

Jeff Nadu:

But again, remember, and I just want to make this clear, this basically tells anyone and anyone, no matter if they’re a female or a male, if you find someone that is rich and/or successful and you want something, you can say whatever happened, the court of law will deny that it ever happened and make it clear that it didn’t happen with evidence, which is how things work in this country, but the employer is saying that we don’t care about court law. Even though we’re below them, we’re just going to do what we want. It’s ridiculous. It’s wrong, and it’s going to set up a lot more of these types of situations. And then, you know what? The true people that are actually being abused are going to have issues. It’s pathetic. It’s really sickening to me.

TC Martin:

All right, guys. Those are our thoughts on that. We have Best Bets here today. Let’s root them home. We appreciate everyone for chiming in with the questions. Remember, we’re here Monday through Friday, 12:00 noon Eastern Time. Click the bell, you get the notifications when we go live. And like I said, Monday through Friday at 12:00 noon Eastern, 9:00 Pacific. All right. For the Basewinner, for Jeff Nadu, TC saying so long. Root us on. Hopefully your picks hit as well today. Cast some tickets. We’ll come back tomorrow and talk all about it and get ready for a big weekend of Major League Baseball. All right. So long. We’ll see you tomorrow on The MLB Show here on BetUS TV.