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MLB Picks & Best Odds Thursday August 4

Scott Spreitzer:

Hey, how’s it going everybody? Scott Spreitzer here, filling in for TC Martin, still on vacation. Jeff Nadu back with us today, along with Mark BaseWinner Borchard. We are BetUS, Major League Baseball show, the favorite America’s sportsbook, talking four baseball games for Thursday’s card. Jeff, good to have you back today. Yesterday, Mark and I spoke a lot about what to expect after all the trades, all the acquisitions became finalized on Tuesday evening.

Padres, by gosh, I haven’t seen this much excitement at Petco, when I was watching the game last night, as they have now, and rightly so, obviously, and they don’t even have Tatís back in the lineup and yet, they’re off and running. And if you thought that acquiring Josh Bell and Juan Soto was incredible, all of a sudden, Brandon Drury goes nuts. He’s hitting .381 on his last six games, and while all eyes were on the two stars, Drury hits a Grandy in last night’s 9-1 win. What a nice opening game, and in fact, it was in his first pitch with the San Diego Padres. Your thoughts on what you’ve seen thus far?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. You know, I saw that last night. I saw Kuhl was pitching. I felt like it was a great spot to back the Padres. I actually did something yesterday that I don’t normally do. I played all runlines in these games. Played the Padres, the LA Dodgers, and the Florida Marlins, or the Miami Marlins. Got great pitching performances from Urías, from Alcántara, and then the Padres just did what they do.

I’ll tell you right now, for a beleaguered bullpen that we’ve talked about before with the LA Dodgers, that was a terrific performance by that group last night, a couple of base-loaded jams, Kimbrel got in trouble in the ninth, but they were able to work out of it. It was a nice job by them. That’s the sign of a great baseball team, and if they can keep getting Evan Phillips to pitch the way he did… I watched that game. I’ve been watching a lot of Dodger games. I don’t know, maybe I’m turning into a Dodger fan. I like this team. There’s something nice about a late-night Dodger game. Without football, it’s going to be what I watch. I like it, I’m enjoying it.

Scott Spreitzer:

My favorite thing to do, living out here in Las Vegas for all these years, is late-night baseball on the West Coast, and before we had the Golden Knights, LA Kings hockey, I could just kick back, watch Kings games, and listen to those broadcasts. But I was going to mention real quickly that you got a complete game out of Alcántara. I wasn’t even going to bring that up until you mentioned his name, and then I remembered. I mean, that’s big news these days. We saw a complete game pitched last night in Miami. And BaseWinner, I’m watching that Padres game last night. Manny Machado had a bad July. Man, look who he’s got in front of him, look who he’s got behind him. You’ve got Soto in front of you, you’ve got Bell protecting you behind you, and he goes out there and he gets three knocks in four tries last night. I mean, you could certainly see that this team deserved that big adjustment going from 9 to 1 to +475 to win the NL.

Mark Borchard:

You know, Scott, that’s a really interesting point, and it’s something that I don’t think you can quantify from an analytic standpoint, whether it be if you use projections or if you use year-to-date stats. Whatever numbers you’re using, that change in the lineup’s going to affect the way the pitchers pitch Machado, and so he’s going to get better pitches. I mean, if somebody can figure out how to quantify that, you tell me. But it’s a really good point, Scott, and I think maybe that’s something that even the best of models are going to have a problem really giving an impact to that. But I think that’s one of the most interesting things I’ve heard, because I was going to be like, “Well, the additions make this lineup the seventh best and Tatís isn’t in the lineup.” But you can’t even quantify the way that the synergy of these players put together, because you could be delicate with Machado in the past and you can’t do it now. So great point on that, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

If you have these two… Okay, here’s the playoffs right now if the season were to end today. You’ve got the Padres at the Braves, and it’s a best-of-three now. With the extra wildcard team, it’s a best-of-three. At all games, if it goes three, are played at the higher seed’s locale, so it would be the Padres at Atlanta for a best-of-three. I mean, if the season ended today, who are you guys backing in that incredible wildcard series? I mean, I almost wish it was today, just as a fan of baseball, to be able to see that series.

Mark Borchard:

Go ahead, Jeff. I can answer it after you do. Okay. Well, I guess Jeff’s on mute, but for me, Scott, it’s Atlanta all the way. I mean, I look at these bullpens, and this postseason is, to me, all about bullpen because these guys, they are on a short leash. And so I think what’s different now than, really, even maybe in the last six, seven years is the coaching staff has access to all the analytic data, so they can see if a guy’s fastball doesn’t have the ride that it has, or if the sweeper’s not sweeping and he’s a sweeper-slider guy, and so, hey man, if the guy didn’t have it, he’s gone, because they have bullpen guys that could do a better job.

So I think that that has to be the key, and right now, the way my bullpen shake out is I have the Braves second bullpen in all of baseball. I’ve got the Padres, they’re decent, they’re eighth in all of baseball, but I just think that at home, with a better bullpen, I would be on the Braves all the way. Until they show me they can’t play in the postseason, then I’m on the Braves all the way, and because they were really good last year.

Scott Spreitzer:

Jeff, your thoughts on that? But also, I wanted to mention, you’re looking last night at the Milwaukee Brewers, and I’m watching a little bit of that game and we talked the other day when they got rid of Hader and brought in Rogers, and it’s not that big of a difference between those two, but what they did is they kind of decided to make a closer out of Devin Williams, and maybe part of getting rid of Hader was so there was no problems in the locker room, the clubhouse, no controversies. “We’re going to turn the ball over to Devin Williams now.” One outing does not a season make, but his first real shot as, “You are the dark closer for the Milwaukee Brewers,” the guy goes out and gives a walk-off home run to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Do you think Milwaukee’s in a little bit of trouble or it’s just one of those things last night?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I’ve said before, from the beginning of the season, I remember I hate this team. I wanted to come into the season and like them, but I just don’t like them. It seems like anytime I backed them personally, they can’t get anything going offensively. You look all of a sudden, as you mentioned… Look, I’m not sure where they thought that some of the guys they had will replace a guy like Hader. I mean, I’m not sure why you signed a guy like Matt Bush. I mean, what does Matt Bush shown in his career, when he was at Texas or wherever? The guy’s a very average pitcher, if not a bad pitcher.

This is just a team that they don’t really do much for me. They’re in a division that, look, let’s be honest, isn’t very good. I mean, outside of the Cardinals. The Reds are disgraceful, the Pirates are a mess, the Cubs are terrible. The fact that they’re only a game and a half above the Cardinals is concerning. Look, I’m going to say something right now. I think the Cardinals end up taking this division. I think they’re a better team. I like their lineup a lot more. I just don’t like the Brewers. I don’t worry about them as a threat, they’re not a team that I’m interested in backing, and when it comes to the playoffs, I have no worry about them when it comes to the Dodgers, the Mets, or even the Padres.

Scott Spreitzer:

I agree with that assessment that the Cardinals are going to overtake the Brewers. I think that’s going to happen before the season’s end. They’re just a better well-rounded team, the St. Louis Cardinals, and in fact, Mark, when I look at the Cardinals, I keep thinking this team has kind of underperformed to a certain extent. I haven’t checked out the games maybe they should have won that they didn’t, the Pythagorean Theorem and all that kind of stuff, but when I do look at the Cardinals, I’m thinking this team probably should have four or five more wins right now, when I’ve tracked them a little bit on the season, than they do. And I do believe they’re eventually going to catch the Milwaukee Brewers and take that division.

But even though St. Louis is weird and dangerous sometimes in the postseason, they got a couple of big sticks, they got a real nice outfield and nice defense, and we’ll see what José Quintana does. In fact, his start goes tonight, his first start since becoming a Cardinal. Like Jeff, I don’t think any team from that division is a threat when it comes to the Braves, the Dodgers, the Mets, and now the Padres.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I would tend to disagree with you on that. I think that the starting pitching with Burns and Woodruff, these guys are elite. They’ve got great control numbers, I mean elite control numbers. And then Jeff said that what has Matt Bush done and I think his numbers have been pretty good. You look at his deserved run average, and this contextualizes data over baseball perspective, so he’s 19% better than average. You look at his expected ERA based on swinging strike percentage and balls divided by pitches and he’s 16% better than average. So these guys, Williams, Bush, and Taylor Rogers, and I kind of personally have a subjective thing against Taylor Rogers because he blew just a beautiful game for me earlier in the year, so these are objective numbers. They’re all better than average, and I think that they’ve got a better top end of the bullpen than the Cardinals do and they got better starting pitching now.

With Quintana, I’ve talked about how much I dislike him, but I wanted to play against him today, and I’m looking at his Location numbers and they’re pretty good. So if this guy can continue to locate, maybe you have something with St. Louis, but I mean, if I were to bet it, I’d bet the Brewers. I already have. I thought Jeff liked the Brewers at the beginning of the year. Didn’t you like the Brewers, Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yes, and then I began to hate them quite quickly.

Scott Spreitzer:

I don’t like Dakota Hudson for St. Louis, that’s for sure. [inaudible 00:10:07] could have his issues on the road, but hopefully, they’ll keep throwing Dakota Hudson out there once in a while so we can look to bet against him or MLB betting some overs.

But all right guys, four games to preview from a betting perspective on Thursday. Let’s first take a look back to last night’s results. Some interesting results besides the ones we already talked about. Mark, I got to tell you, we got off the air, and about 15, 20 minutes later, the start of the Yankees game takes place and I had it on, I’m watching that game, and I think like Gerrit Cole, I’m scratching my head. He’s registering a hundred miles per hour, his velocity wasn’t down, he’s throwing strikes for the most part, he’s not walking anybody, yet he gives up what, two or three dingers in the first inning and gives up six runs. The crowd, of course, at Yankee Stadium’s booing every pitch after the first couple of runs allowed. He walks off, they’re booing him, they gave the Bronx cheer when he got a ground ball out for the second out of the inning, but he goes on and he pitches great the last five innings.

So it’s nothing when it comes to Gerrit Cole. He’s had a couple of weird outings where he’s had one or two innings that have been a little weird for him. But if you look at what happened last night, it’s like I’m sitting there going, “I don’t have a problem with this guy moving forward.” He was still registering triple digits on his fastball, and sometimes, you just got to tip your hat to that other team and that other batting order for just getting busy and putting that barrel on the ball, and that’s what happened in that first inning yesterday, Mark.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I was just going to say, you got to give credit to Seattle where credit is due. He goes the rest of the game. He goes eight strikeouts from one walk. Wow, what a tough crowd. They’re booing Gerrit Cole. Wow.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, big time.

Mark Borchard:

Wow. Welcome to New York, guys. But yeah, I mean Seattle, this offense is capable. I’ve been kind of beating their drum the whole year. I think that we don’t realize how hard it is to hit a home run until we look at the elite home run hitters and the home run hitting contest, and they don’t hit the 80-mile-an-hour-right-down-the-middle-of-the-plate off-speed-pitch for a home run every time. They struggle sometimes. So hitting a home run is a difficult task, and like you said, tip the cap to Seattle. They got it done in the first inning, and it’s really like when you’re playing it under seven and they score six in the first inning, it’s kind of uphill struggle, but they almost held on. It was still like 6 to 1 going into the 7th and I said, “Oh, maybe we could hang onto this thing,” but it wasn’t meant to be, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

The only crowd better than, and Jeff could attest to this, the only crowd better than New York, and watching them, I’m just laughing because they’re booing the guy with every pitch in that first inning. Gerrit Cole, your ace, and you’re just booing the heck out of him. The only crowd better than that is the Philly crowd, and you could just ask Kris Kringle on that one, how bad it can get if you’re in Philly and they don’t like you.

But listen, your other play was the two-teamer, which you got that easy win with the New York Mets. Not his best start, but a very good start out of Shohei. He only gives up 200 runs through five and two-thirds, but once again, those Angel bats go silent and they end up losing to Oakland by a 3-1 final.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. You know, you look down this lineup and you say, “Where have these Angels gone wrong?” And then Rendon getting hurt, I mean, you can’t fault the guy for that. But you look at a guy like Jared Walsh and he might as well be like Joe Walsh from the Eagles because, okay, so look at his projection. His projection’s at 119, and this is across the line, ZiPS, Steamers, PECOTA, and he’s performing, his deserved run created by Baseball Prospectus is 76. So there’s like a 45-point difference into what he was projected and what he’s created so far. And Adell’s the same way, not as flagrant, though, because his projections were right about 97 to 102, but he’s producing it like a 65 level, so Jo Adell might as well be the singer Adele. That’s my take on that.

Scott Spreitzer:

Would that be the one before she got in shape or the one after? I’m thinking the one-

Mark Borchard:

How many chances are they going to give Jo Adell? The guy’s just, he’s not there, but I guess that’s how desperate they are. So it’s tough to play this team. Having said that, they still have Rengifo, like he’s 100, Taylor Ward’s at 120, Ohtani’s a 120. So you think that they’d be able to score three or four runs for Ohtani, but they just haven’t been able to do it last two starts, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

Adele got basically, she was the Gerrit Cole in Las Vegas not too long ago. She was charging eight…

Speaker 4:

[inaudible 00:14:35].

Scott Spreitzer:

Well, the ticket groups were charging eight, nine grand, and she was here in Vegas. A lot of people made a lot of plans, then she canceled due to, I guess, some of her crew having COVID, and headed back across the pond. My gosh, did she take heat. It was like Gerrit Cole in the first inning last night.

But anyway, my top play I had won yesterday, it was the under in the first five innings between the Dodgers and Giants that got there. The Dodgers led 2-0 through five innings. I’ll just mention this about Urías, and we talked about it yesterday about his incredible run, including through the first five innings, he’s now allowed a grand total of eight first five inning runs in his last 11 starts. He allowed none yesterday. He’s just been tearing it up for the Dodgers, and I’ll probably look to continue playing under is when he’s on the mound of the first five innings as long as his counterpart isn’t a stiff.

So that was last night. Let’s get to Thursday’s card. The BetUS Game of the Day is the matchup between the Braves and the Mets. As you look at your lines right there, oh, I guess going to go with the Dodgers and the Giants first. The Dodgers laying 215 here. The comeback is 185 on this game. The total is eight minus a $1.10 either way. And you know, the Dodgers got a chance here to wrap up a sweep in San Francisco. They’re red-hot again. They’ve won the last three against this team. It’s Kershaw and Junis on the mound. Jakob Junis is having a decent enough season, except one issue, he doesn’t eat up a lot of innings and he’s thrown just 10 and a third combined in his last three outings. Jeff, your thoughts on the Dodgers and the Giants?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. You know, I went back and forth on this game. I want to back Kershaw here. I like Kershaw here. Something just tells me this is a weird spot for them. I don’t know. I got some money out of them last night. I felt like the bullpen looked good. They were taxed a little bit, as I said. I will say, I mean, Urías had a kind of a rough end. I mean, some of those hits, there was an error, I believe, by Gavin Lux at one point. That being said, Junis has been good. The problem that he has is, as you alluded to, he doesn’t eat up innings. I don’t know. Something ultimately said to stay away from this one. I kind of looked at it more as like a flippy game, so I feel like there’s value in maybe the Giants. But I hate the Giants, I don’t like them, I think they’re inconsistent, just not a real good team at this point, so I don’t know. It’s a mess for me. I didn’t play it.

Scott Spreitzer:

Mark, I thought about laying a one and a half and I ended up passing. Do you agree with the pass or do you like a side or total on this one?

Mark Borchard:

Well, I’m going to put the Dodgers in a parlay with the Padres, so it’s like a day game parlay. That’s all I have for today. But good job. First of all, before I get into the game, good job on that under last night, that Urías and… Who’s on the hill again?

Scott Spreitzer:

I’m spacing off last night’s starting.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. No, it was Cobb, I think, that-

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. So those guys have great Location, and Urías, the reason I bring it up is because I agree with you. I think that you look to Urías in the first five inning spots, either in an under situation, like you did, or just play him straight, because when he locates, he’s really tough to beat. It fluctuates, but he’s usually on the good side of that Location. But getting into this game, I’ve got it priced at -212, so it’s right kind of where the market is. I put it out yesterday, it was like -190-ish, so there was a little bit of value based on my projection and the market, but I just think that… You make a good point with Junis. He’s not going to go deep into the game. I think we’re going to get… Jeff talked about the Dodgers bullpen, and I know we’ve said some negative things about the Dodgers bullpen, but all the ratings were done after the trade deadline for me. I’ve got this Dodger bullpen fifth in baseball, so that’s impressive, and I’ve got the Giants 15th in baseball.

So I think if we get a mix of the bullpen, we definitely have an edge there. Offensively, it’s a huge edge. I mean the Dodgers, second in baseball, 120 projected runs created, and then the Giants are 17th in baseball, so in my estimation, we get a better starting pitcher, we get a better bullpen, we get a better offense, and I think that just thinking about the game outside of the numbers, this San Francisco team, they’ve got to be kind of downtrodden. They’ve been just drubbed by the Dodgers the last two games, then they look at San Diego and they’re like, “Oh my God, this division team.” They just got a bunch of guys. They can’t be too pumped up, Scott, if you hear what I’m saying.

Scott Spreitzer:

Oh, definitely. And Cobb, by the way, who went last night, he’s done very well in the first five innings of late. Last night, he was fine. He gave up a couple of singletons through the first five innings and that was basically it, so he’s another one, when he’s at home, don’t be afraid to throw it in the mix with the way that team is not hitting usually at home now and, as you mentioned, a little bit down with everything that’s going on around them in the NL West, with the Dodgers and Padres both getting all that attention and making moves, obviously, to try to win a World Series. It’s not what happened last year on the field for the Giants, when they were fortunate to win as many games as they did.

So you do have a little parlay going here, the Dodgers, first half of that. Let’s talk about the Colorado-San Diego clash, of course, that at Petco. This game goes at 4:10 PM eastern, 1:10 local time in San Diego. You got Freeland and Musgrove on the hill. You see the line right there, Padres, 285, comeback on the Rockies, +235, your total sitting at eight, a little bit of juice on that under. But again, [inaudible 00:20:09] laying big chalk here, parlay in the [inaudible 00:20:12]. I can certainly see using them at a two-teamer today, and Mark, Freeland, he’s been better on the road than at Coors. His numbers aren’t bad at all away from home, but his team has been horrible on the road for a couple of seasons now. Your take on this one?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I’ve got priced at -346, so I think that there’s value. If you want to just lay in the wood and play it straight, I’m going to go ahead and put it in the parlay with the Dodgers. You get about even money on the return. And if you just look at all the components of this game, you just start off with the offense. I’ve got the Padres 16% better than average, 7th in baseball. I’ve got Colorado 6% worse than average, 25th in baseball. You look at the bullpens and this is really going to be really important for me going into the stretch run of the season and the playoffs, and the Rockies are the worst team in baseball by my metrics, number 30, and the Padres are up in the top 10. We talked about that earlier. They’re 8th in baseball. And then starting pitching, I got Musgrove 11th out of 150 and Freeland 102 out of 150, and that kind of goes into that mixer to get that -346 projection.

One other thing I did want to mention before we move on is Musgrove’s Location+ number, as defined by The Athletic, is pretty elite. It’s in the 86th percentile. So I like to look at that. I like guys who can locate, and Musgrove definitely can do that. So I think that this is a good parlay. I think we’re going to have a good opportunity to get a winner here, Scott, with the Dodgers and the Padres.

Scott Spreitzer:

You change those ratings at all with the Rockies on Coors Field? You know, I think they’re a little bit above .500 at Coors. Last year, they were tremendous at Coors, this year, not so high but still a little bit above .500, and you look at a team like the Oakland A’s who tends to not win anywhere.

Mark Borchard:

So it’s a good question, and what I use is defensive runs allowed for a component of the ratings. So that’s roughly, depending, 50 to 60% of the rating, and that contextualizes the stats, so that takes out park effects and opponent effects out of the mix, so I like that number as a what are the components of the bullpen rating.

The other component is swinging strike percentage and balls divided by pitches, and I contextualize that to an extent. So yeah, the context is in there, and even giving Colorado… You’re going to give them brownie points in your ratings because Colorado, you’re not striking out as many, so a strike out there is worth more. Even doing that, they’re still worst in baseball, Scott, but it was a good question.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, I was just wondering how you factor that in when you got a team that can actually win or challenge for wins nightly almost at home, but good answer, too. I wanted to dive into your brain and how you operate when it comes to that. It’s interesting stuff.

We’re going to lock Mark in, by the way, two-team parlay here. He’s going to back the Dodgers to the Padres for his two-teamer. Jeff, the Padres haven’t always won on the mound with Musgrove of late, but man, this team has just popped through the roof. Do you look for him to get back on track here?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, but I think the problem is, as you probably are well aware of, I mean, you’re going to pay a premium to play the Padres. I mean, it’s just how it’s going to be now. We’re all well aware that they have Soto now, we’re all well aware of what they’ve done in the market. So as Mark said, maybe it’s not high enough, though.

I mean, this Colorado team, interesting enough, has been kind of an odyssey for me. I bet them a lot at home, overs and things like that, but they are truly just a disaster on the road offensively. You look at the game logs, weirdly enough, Musgrove faced the Colorado Rockies at home on June 10th. Six innings, didn’t give up a run, eight strikeouts. Couple of weeks ago, he went to Colorado. Five innings, gave up nine hits and five earned runs. This is just what Colorado is. They’re not a good road team, they don’t hit. In fact, they’re truly heinous on the road.

So yeah, I would lean Padres here. As Mark alluded to, might not be high enough, but look, in my estimation, just is a little high to continue to back, especially laying runlines here, because you may not get that full nine at-bats, though I don’t know if it’ll matter here. This game screams like 7-2 to me, but I like Musgrove. I’ll side with them here.

Scott Spreitzer:

I just know if I’m a starting pitcher and, all of a sudden, I’m seeing that second, third, and fourth, those hitters on the lineup for San Diego now, as we mentioned earlier, when you look at Soto, followed by Machado, followed by Bell, I’m like, “Man, can I take the day off and I’ll pitch next time out?” I mean, that’s murderers row, for sure. So again, locking in, Mark, Dodgers to Padres, two-team parlay for Thursday.

Next up is the Braves at the Mets, and Mark has some thoughts on this one, too. You got Wright and Carrasco on the mound to start. It’s an all important series. I can’t wait to watch this one at Citi Field, Mark. Both pitchers were outstanding in the month of July. Atlanta won each of Wright’s last five starts, the Mets won each of Carrasco’s last five starts. Your take on this big series opener? I can’t wait to watch it.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I was so close to playing the under here and I decided to kind of pull off the under. It’s just because of the weather. It’s going to be really hot there, and there’s some park effects at Citi Field where it’s hotter, it’s probably not a good idea to play an under. Other than that, this thing screams under to me. I mean, Wright and Carrasco have been really good. You look at Carrasco’s Location+ number, and his BaseWinner number’s only 6% better than average, so that’s not elite, but his Location+ number is in the 90th percentile. I like to look at that number when I’m playing in under.

Kyle Wright, we’ve talked about him on the show, he’s at an 85 run suppression number, so 15% better than average. You look at these two bullpens and I kind of went over how I made the ratings. So I think that they’re pretty good ratings for these bullpens, and Atlanta’s number two in baseball, only behind your Seattle Mariners, and the Mets are number nine in baseball. So I wanted to play the under in this game, but I’m just kind of scared off by the weather.

But I do have a question for both Scott and Jeff and the chat room, because I think this is an interesting thing. So Carlos Carrasco, if you take the first three letters of his first name and the first three letters of his last name, it’s Car-Car. Now, there’s only one other pitcher that has started in the last two years that you could take the first three letters of his first name and the first three letters of his last name and you’d have the same thing. So at the end of the show, I’ll tell you who it is, but if you guys can guess by the end of the show, I’ll give you a pat on the back, Scott or Jeff.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah. I absolutely know who it is, but I don’t want to give it away. I’m kidding.

Mark Borchard:

Oh, do you really? Oh, that’s interesting.

Scott Spreitzer:

I’m kidding, I’m joking. I was going to say so better ask Jeff. I want to see if he knows.

Mark Borchard:

I would’ve said like, “Wow.”

Scott Spreitzer:

I can’t think this early in the morning. Come on, man. I’m a night owl and here I am up early in the morning at 9:00 AM for a show in Las Vegas. But you know what I’m thinking, Mark? So you’re not going to lock into a best bet here? You’ve decided not to play the under full game?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I can’t. I don’t want to have to go against the weather there, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

And that’s good. Again, you can look at a game the night before, you think you’re going to be on a certain side or a certain total, more information comes in, and obviously, you pull off when there’s more information that comes in.

My thought of this, Jeff, was, in my under yesterday that I had to the Dodgers and the Giants, the first five innings, we were talking about, “Man, there’s going to be winds blowing out 10 miles per hour,” almost throughout the entire baseball game, and the humidor effect and all that kind of stuff, humidity, that I thought I had two pitchers on the mound who could negate those weather situations, and they did, and I’m kind of wondering if that’s the same thing here, and I was thinking maybe a first five underplay between these two teams. And I haven’t made that bet. I don’t know that I’m going to yet. But Jeff, you got Wright, 2.64 ERA, buck 17 WHIP in the month of July, he’s better on the road at home. You’ve got Carrasco with zero runs allowed in his last three starts. The Mets are 25th in OPS and wOBA, 17th in weighted runs created plus at home against righties since July 1st. So I was actually thinking first five under if I do get involved. Your thoughts on this game?

Jeff Nadu:

You know, it’s hard to bet under with these two teams just because the Mets are the best over team in baseball. Atlanta’s not far behind. I got to be honest, though. I had this numbered seven and a half. I was surprised to see eight. As you alluded to, both pitchers have been very good. It’s a flippy game. I mean, the problem you have at Atlanta is they strike out so much. I mean, it just seems sometimes like it’s all or nothing with this group. Mets don’t do that, really. I didn’t have much. Coin flip game, two good pitchers, should be a great matchup between two damn good teams.

I’ll take this two minutes, though, to just quickly say… I didn’t get to say this yesterday because I had some tech issues. I wasn’t able to be on the show. Guys, I think one problem that we have nowadays is we’re losing a lot of legends in this country, whether it’s film or baseball announcers or whatever. We have to realize that, I know in my own personal life, I look at my life and say, “Wow, in 20 years, I’ll be 53 years old. My parents will be in their 80s.” We have to recognize that people are getting older and they’re going to pass away. Vin Scully, okay, we have to understand, is one of the great treasures this country still has to offer. I listened to some of his videos last night online where he’s talking about this and that, and he told the story about when he met Babe Ruth. Think about that.

Scott Spreitzer:

Jesus.

Jeff Nadu:

He met Babe Ruth. He was talking about he was 13 years old, it was in like the late ’30s, and he saw him at the Polo Grounds at New York City. And then he was talking about Pearl Harbor and that he was 14 when Pearl Harbor happened. It’s sad that all these people are dying. We’ve seen in the, if you’re mob movie buff, all these mob actors are passing away. It sucks because these people are treasures and it’s sad to see them go.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, we were talking a little bit about Vin yesterday, or a lot, actually, about Vin yesterday and what he meant to both of us, Mark and myself, and I did see something last night that I… You talked about Babe Ruth, and that’s what jogged the memory is that they were talking that Vin Scully called a game with a player who was born in 1916 and he also called a game with a player who was born in 1996. Is that crazy stuff or what?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah.

Scott Spreitzer:

I mean, 67 years in the business, and again, I mean, we’ve seen nothing but love poured in for Vin Scully, and rightly so.

Jeff Nadu:

I mean, Scott, let me ask you real quick. I mean, 9,000 broadcasts. Over that, right? I mean, I have a podcast. I’ve done 70 episodes and I feel like it’s been years.

Mark Borchard:

That’s great, Jeff.

Jeff Nadu:

It is wild. Think about even you guys. You’ve done this a long time. I mean, you haven’t even, I don’t think, hit half the time that Vin Scully is… It’s crazy. It really is fascinating.

Scott Spreitzer:

Jeff, I did my first starter show in 1991 and I’m still not even halfway to the amount of games that Vin Scully called Major League Baseball games. Absolutely. Any thoughts on the game we were just talking about before we move on, or was it [inaudible 00:31:04]?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, no, I think it’s a very difficult matchup. You have two very good pitchers here. As I said, though, I want to lean Wright. I’ve actually picked off Carrasco’s starts a couple of times this year. But two tough teams, two good teams. It’s one of those NFL games that you kind of look at and you’re like, “Wow, this is a three point number. There’s no real value in it.” As I said, I had the number at seven and a half. I thought it was a bit high at eight. But as Mark alluded to with the numbers and the fact that both these teams, in particular the Mets, are very good over groups, I have no interest in putting my money towards it.

Scott Spreitzer:

I’ll throw that lean out there again, that opinion on first five under, but again, I’m leery and it might not become a play for me for all the reasons Mark mentioned also, besides the fact that Jeff mentioned these. You’re talking about over teams. It’s kind of tough. You’re almost holding your nose as you walk to the window, as I like to say in Las Vegas, you’re holding your nose going, “Boy, I really like the matchup in this game, but I got to ignore a lot of other factors that maybe should keep me off, and so that’s why I haven’t made the move yet.

Hey, folks, Q&A coming up in just a second, so get ready to ask your questions on any of today’s games or baseball topics. Final game we’re going to talk about today happens to be a game that both Jeff and I are on for our show, Best Bets, and it is the Astros at Cleveland. You see the price right there, Houston laying a buck 75, comeback, plus a buck 55. A juice a little bit on that over. The total’s sitting at eight. Verlander, please act on the bump. Thought about going moneyline on this but didn’t, Jeff. I went runline, and I know you’re on the same play here for a best bet. Your thoughts on Houston at Cleveland?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. So look, I don’t need to go into a diatribe about Justin Verlander. We all know he’s a good pitcher, one of the best in the major leagues. He’s only had more than five earned runs given up on one start. Weirdly enough, I was on that, and I know Mark remembers that one against Seattle on a Friday night. But all in all, the guy is nasty.

This is really also, though, a play against Zach Plesac, who, look, quite frankly, isn’t very good, especially lately. Look at his July numbers, kind of a mess. And he’s had issues. I mean, June, he had a pretty good month, but for the most part, this season has not been good to Zachary Plesac. Obviously, I know I’m going to get a great lineup. I don’t need to continue to go into these diatribes about all of the fact that I like Houston. They’ve got stronger at the deadline with guys like Mancini and the catcher they acquired. This is just a simple play for me. I’m going to get all nine at-bats, I’ve got Verlander, and I just don’t think they win by one run. I am confident laying the number. I don’t need to go into much on this one, in my opinion.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yeah, I agree. You know, it’s funny. I wrote this up last night for a couple of places that I send my stuff, and I was sitting there and I thought I could almost just say, “It’s Verlander against Plesac,” and I’m done. It’s Houston and Cleveland. Here’s the thing, you look at Justin Verlander besides the low ERA and all the things that Jeff mentioned, he’s given up a grand total of just 50 base runners in 68 innings pitched on the road this season, an incredible WHIP away from home, buck 72 ERA, .152 batting average against in those games, and then we jump a little bit deeper into the metrics, and check out the difference, Mark, in the hard hit and barrel rate percentages and you’ll see Verlander hard hit 35% barrel, 7.3%, then you got Zach Plesac, hefty 43% hard hit, 11.1% barrel.

When I see guys that are over 40% hard hit, over 11% barrel, I don’t automatically pull the trigger on an over, but that’s when I start looking at overs. But in this case, because Verlander has been so fantastic on the road in those metrics, I think you got to back Verlander here or stay away from the game, my own personal opinion. And Plesac’s xERA is 5.92. His ERA has gone from 3.80 to 4.33 over his last four starts, where he’s given up 14 earned runs and 29 base runners in less than 19 innings pitched.

So listen, he’s faced Houston twice. He’s been crushed by Houston the two times that he’s faced them once this year. Cleveland’s 16th or worse in OPS, wOBA, and weighted runs created plus at home against righties. So I had to go and jump on Verlander, minus the run and a half. Jeff and I both lock it in with the minus run and a half with Houston. The only thing that kind of concerns me, and it’s kind of weird to think this way, is that I really thought this number was going to be two bucks by this time of day, and it’s only a buck 75 or so.

Mark Borchard:

Yes, Scott. I think that you guys are both on the right side here. I have it priced at -191, so for me, that’s pretty much why I’m not playing it. My numbers aren’t as bullish on Verlander and it’s just because his median strikeout’s like at six, which isn’t super elite. It’s good. And I’ve talked about Verlander. I think he’s a really good pitcher. The strikeout numbers aren’t there, but what is there is his Location+ number, which is elite. It’s 97th percentile, so I think that’s a really key figure.

What concerns me a bit and why… I thought about just going ahead and jumping on this game with both of you guys, but Plesac has like a 62 percentile Location number. That’s pretty good. A Stuff+ at 42 percentile, which isn’t great, but it may be enough to get them to this Cleveland bullpen. And I think the Cleveland bullpen, and we talked about how I evaluated the bullpen, so I think they’re pretty decent numbers. I’ve got the Cleveland bullpen better than Houston. I’ve got the Cleveland bullpen third in baseball. And they’re fairly deep. It’s not just three guys, so they can throw more than three guys at you, basically. And so that’s a little bit of a concern, but Verlander, I mean, I couldn’t bet against, I’m not going to bet against him. But that’s the only reason that I’m not going to tail it, is because I don’t want to get into a situation late where you need an extra run to hit your bet but you’re going up against one of the best bullpens in baseball, so that’s why I passed on it, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

And I thought Zach Plesac, and you mentioned some of his decent numbers, and over the course of the season, I kept looking at those metrics, the hard hits and barrels, especially over the last couple of months, and I thought, “Boy, when is this going to catch up to him?” And it looks like it might have, and that xERA being almost six. So the last four starts, it’ll be interesting because if he’s able to pull it together, then it means we kind of lessen the impact of those last four starts for Plesac moving forward.

Jeff Nadu:

He’s also been particularly poor at home, which is not a common. Usually, you’re a lot better at home. I don’t know. His WHIP, though, it’s just concerning. He’s always got a lot of base runners. Maybe his luck has, as you alluded to, just kind of run out. And look, for the most part, outside of May or outside of June wasn’t great, but Mark made some good points. Ultimately, I think we just have the better of these two bullpens and line them. So we’ll lean on that, hopefully, plus the pitcher.

Scott Spreitzer:

And we’re going to… Folks, start asking your questions and we’ll try to answer the best we can, but before we get to that, I’m back to Car-Car, man. You’ve had me intrigued now for the last 10 minutes. Who’s the other Car-Car?

Mark Borchard:

It’s Touki Toussaint. I mean, you wouldn’t think that, right?

Scott Spreitzer:

Wow, I would’ve never come up with that.

Mark Borchard:

I don’t know how I came up with this, but I’m like, “Oh, well, C-A-R. There’s got to be somebody that has that.” So I spent about 30 minutes doing it. So I was like, “Well, I’ll just…” I think it’s just a really interesting thing.

Jeff Nadu:

It is important, though, to understand, Touki is a nickname, by the way.

Scott Spreitzer:

Yes.

Jeff Nadu:

But great pull, Mark. I thought it was like Jacob… I didn’t know what the… Joey Junk? Something Junk. I thought maybe-

Mark Borchard:

Janson Junk, something like that.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah.

Mark Borchard:

There’s a few that have the two letters the same, but that was the only one that I was-

Jeff Nadu:

I could have sworn his name is like Johnson Junk or something, I thought.

Mark Borchard:

Janson Junk. I don’t know if he leads with his curve ball and off-speed stuff, but that would be something, right?

Scott Spreitzer:

It’s like you’re scaring me. I feel like I’m channeling some Harry Caray stuff from the box right now. You start saying things backwards and we’re going to call you Harry. But I started thinking of Tony Armas, where each syllable is a part of the human body, the human anatomy, when we started jumping into these [inaudible 00:39:19].

Jeff Nadu:

Hey, Scott.

Mark Borchard:

Toe, knee, arm, yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

Hey Scott, let me ask you, and Mark, I’m curious what you think. Off top of your head. Someone asked me on Twitter who is my baseball commenter Mount Rushmore, and I said, Scully, Harry Kalas, Harry Caray, and Bob Uecker. That was my top four.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, Kalas was good. I like the way he called a home run. I mean, Vin Scully is up there. I like Jon Miller for the… I liked him. And I really like Dan Shulman. When he did radio, I thought he was really good. So those would be right there at the top of the list for me.

Scott Spreitzer:

You know who my favorite… I’m going to say, at least… This was back in the day, Jeff. This was before you were born and Mark and I were probably in grade school, when it was game of the week in Major League Baseball. You didn’t have cable TV, you didn’t have games on every day. You couldn’t wait for Saturday because you were going to get a game or two finally after just reading box scores or listening on the radio, and there was an [inaudible 00:40:16] radio broadcasting back then, too, and then you had Monday Night Baseball. So I’m going to throw this one at you, Garagiola and Tony Kubek, which, I don’t know, Jeff, if you’ve ever had a chance to go back and listen to old games called by those two, but Mark, you probably have. I mean, you’re probably around the same age as I am. We’re both about 20 years older than Jeff is.

I used to just look forward to as a kid. I mean, I was that kid who would go out and play sports Saturday mornings but make sure I was home in time in front of the TV to catch Garagiola and Kubek. And then growing up in Omaha, I was at basically every College World Series from the time I was like three till I moved to Vegas when I was 17, and Kubek and Garagiola, in the late ’70s up until about ’80, ’81, would call usually the championship game of the College World Series. So I got to meet them. I almost got run over by them when they were trying to catch a flight and running down an aisle. I’m standing there like a dorky kid seeing stars when I watched these two run down the aisles.

But I love those two men. Those two on the play-by-play and the color were phenomenal. And I’ll throw one at you here. Mark yesterday, Jeff, we were doing the show and he goes, “I’m talking about Nelson Cruz probably better than most, and I might get lynched for this.” Well, I might get lynched for this. For those who have been around for a while and are familiar with his tones, I really liked Howard Cosell on Monday Night Baseball, I really did. I thought Howard Cosell-

Mark Borchard:

That’s funny.

Scott Spreitzer:

… was fantastic, both calling boxing until Randall Tex Cobb ended that and became a big favorite of a lot of people who didn’t like Howard Cosell on the play-by-play or blow-by-blow in boxing. But Monday Night Baseball with Howard Cosell, and even Keith Jackson called some Monday Night Baseball at one point, and they were both phenomenal.

Jeff Nadu:

One thing about Garagiola, I’ve actually looked into him because look, Yogi Berra is fascinating to me as someone I just am curious about, and I read something that Garagiola and him lived on the same street in St. Louis when they were kids, and the scouts during the time, they both played baseball, the scouts actually believed Garagiola was the better player, and throughout Garagiola’s life, he would joke about the fact that they were so awful in that breakdown and that he wasn’t even the best catcher on his street, and just, yeah, real interesting guy. I also will say, I know he’s kind of a weird guy and has these quirks and stuff. Hawk Harrelson always cracked me up in Chicago, just with some of the things he used to say. I used to get a kick out of him.

Scott Spreitzer:

And I liked Harry, Harry Caray, by the way.

Jeff Nadu:

Sure. I had-

Scott Spreitzer:

I liked Harry Kalas, too. But I liked Harry Caray. A lot of people maybe got turned off, but I thought he was fantastic and fun. I love fun announcers, and he certainly was that. Since Vin has retired and, of course, passed away a couple of days ago, I thought, Mark mentioned, Jon Miller was a good one because I’ve enjoyed his play-by-play for many, many years now, so he’s up there, too.

Mark Borchard:

He is great. You talk about a good sense of humor, that guy certainly has it. He does a good Vin Scully imitation, too. But you mentioned, Scott, two guys that I wanted to kind of piggyback on, Keith Jackson. He was a great football announcer, but he called a really good baseball game.

Scott Spreitzer:

Oh, yeah.

Mark Borchard:

Al Michaels called a good baseball game. Al Michaels called the Angels-Red Sox 1986 epic game. He did a good job, and so did Brent Musburger. Musburger did a great job calling baseball. So a lot of iconic announcers have called this game. I don’t think anybody is as good as Vin, and I think that those guys would tell you the same as well.

Scott Spreitzer:

Oh, yeah. No doubt about it. And Vin would give them nothing to credit, but they would say Vin’s the best. And it’s funny, Al Michaels, you brought him up, I remember he was in the Earthquake Game, that Giants-A’s World Series, and in the press box there at Candlestick when the earth started shaking and we had a delay in the World Series for a few games.

But all right, enough talking about yesteryear. It’s always fun and we could probably have a four-hour show between the three of us talking about things we’ve seen and enjoyed over the course of our time on this planet watching baseball, watching football and everything else. But I think it’s time for little Q&A. Let’s get some questions from a couple of the listeners out there on BetUS today, and then of course, we’ll recap our best bets.

Joe Blow. I like it. White Sox. He wants his thoughts on the White Sox today. You got Cueto and Ragans going on the mound. Listen, the bottom line is is I don’t go against the White Sox when they’re going up against a lefty. They’re facing a rookie tonight, and sometimes the rookie lefties have an advantage, at least for the first few innings, and a lot of times, I’ll look to play an under at least in the first five innings when I see a rookie making his debut and he’s a southpaw, but man, the White Sox against lefties the last couple of years. Their pen has been better of late. Cueto just had a fantastic month of July. I lean towards laying that buck 20, buck 25, whatever it happens to be now, Jeff.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I agree with you here. I mean, Cole Ragans, interestingly enough, has not faced even a Triple-A lineup until this year, where he advanced above Double-A. He’s mostly been in Double-A, A-plus, and A. So not ideal. They’re calling on him quick here against a team that’s particularly strong against left-handed pitchers. You know, say what you want about Johnny Cueto. If you’d have told me at this point, with the number of appearances he’s had, that he had a sub-three ERA, I’d tell you you’re crazy. I mean, nice little resurgence and Renaissance from Johnny Cueto, who, at one point, was one of my favorite pitchers many years ago, when he was with the Reds and other teams like that. We talked about Tim Lincecum. I think they were on the same team at one point, Johnny Cueto and Lincecum. But yeah, I lean the White Sox, even though they are kind of a bipolar kind of team, if you will. Sometimes they look real good and some nights they look real bad.

Scott Spreitzer:

Mark, your thoughts on this one? You take out the J and the BL, you get OO. I’m just kidding, I’m just kidding.

Mark Borchard:

That was pretty funny, Scott. This game, I’ve got it priced at -145. I’m pretty close. I might make it in added play later in the day. I’m surprised with my number on Cueto because I have not been his biggest fan over the last couple of years. I’ve got him 6% better than average, I’ve got this Rangers team 13% worse than average. You know, one of the things that I thought was super interesting about Cueto is his Location+ number. It’s almost in that top quarter. He’s in the 73 percentile. And you guys both mentioned the respective splits of the White Sox versus left-handed pitching, and so I have them sixth in baseball versus left-handed pitching. It’s really close to a play. There’s a couple other things I’m waiting to see, but I may make it a play towards the latter half of the day, Scott.

Scott Spreitzer:

Mark, Holmes asks about how we feel Syndergaard is going to fare in his first start with Philly. He becomes their number-three starter. They whipped up on Espino earlier this year. I’m going to throw this to you, Jeff, because you’re the Philly guy. You go out and get Syndergaard at the last second from the Angels. What are your thoughts on him now appearing with the Phillies against Washington?

Jeff Nadu:

Well, I would say if you’re a coed in the Philadelphia area, you should be heading out to Down, NOTO, and the clubs this weekend. You might get lucky with Noah, who is known to like the blonde coeds if you know anything about him. But listen, I don’t know. I wasn’t a real big fan of his in LA. I didn’t think he was particularly good. But we have to remember, weirdly enough, outside of Trout and Ohtani, that is a disastrous lineup. Definitely going to be better here, but still no Bryce Harper, still just kind of an inconsistent group. Noah Syndergaard’s been plagued with, outside of the Mets, being on these just either average or just not good teams. I still think he has a little left and I don’t put him in like a Keuchel territory. He’s been okay. He’s had the opportunities to look decent, but I’m just not a big fan of this Phillies team. I don’t think they’re properly managed, I don’t think they’re properly ownerned. Is that even a word? They don’t have a proper ownership. Yeah, no real interest in him, especially on the field right now.

Scott Spreitzer:

I would lean Syndergaard right now with this matchup just because it’s Washington and because even though, as Jeff mentioned, it’s not the same lineup for the Phillies, but they had little trouble with Espino when they faced them, Mark, and you still got Voit and Abrams, and man, we talked about those two yesterday about, man, especially if you like Voit, you’re like, “Man, I got to stick around and play with this Triple-A team for the rest of the season.” But anyway, it’s a big price. That’s the problem. It’s 220. I just glanced at it again. It just seems a little bit overpriced.

Mark Borchard:

I think it’s too high, Scott. I mean, I put Washington out with a plus one and a half last night. And if you’d look, like Syndergaard, just kind of looking at his expected ERA based on strikeouts and walks, he’s at like a 1.08, so 8% worse than average. And Espino hasn’t been too bad. He’s 11% worse than average. I was surprised, shook out after the trade deadline, where this Phillies lineup versus right-handed pitching was, and it’s 19th in baseball. The Nationals, even with losing all their guys, there’s still three teams worse than them in baseball from a lineup standpoint. So I just don’t see the gap being that great offensively. And then the bullpen, I mean, the Nationals, I have 22nd in baseball, Philly 20th in baseball, so that’s pretty even. The one thing and the reason I didn’t put it out on the show is Syndergaard has been making his living this year on his Location, and his Location+ number is at 93 percentile. So that’s probably the best thing that Syndergaard has going for him, but really, -215 with this guy? I can’t see it.

Scott Spreitzer:

This next question from Hamdy, this is a good one for Mark because he asked who’s winning between the Brewers or Pirates. Right now, nobody. It’s bottom of the first, no score. But Mark, I wanted to throw it out there for you because it’s an early start and you might have something that makes somebody want to play a game in this particular contest. No score, bottom of the first.

Mark Borchard:

I would just say the Location numbers are good for both these guys. So if you want to do end game stuff, play the under. Yeah, that’s how I would do it.

Scott Spreitzer:

And we appreciate all the questions from everybody, obviously, and watching every single day, as we enjoy doing this, and glad to see those who are tuning in having some thoughts on these games. Guys, before we call it quits today, let’s review today’s best bets. You’ll check it out on your screen right there. We’ve got, Jeff and I both, on the Astros, laying the run and a half. The price on that, about a buck 15. And Mark BaseWinner Borchard, he’s got the Dodgers parlayed to the Padres, minus $1.02. Not bad, actually. I mean, I actually did a parlay the other day. I think we talked about it here, where I actually laid a buck 15 and I lost that parlay, and I normally want a $1.10 or higher coming the other way when I play a two-teamer in baseball, but I like this parlay at minus $1.02. I don’t think you could fault either one of those picks from Jeff, myself, or from BaseWinner.

And listen, we got one more day before the weekend, and then, of course, our boy, TC Martin, returns from vacation on Monday. I’m so happy about that. I love being an analyst, I like to play host once in a while. We got one more day to do it, guys, which is Friday. Let’s put everything in the win column. We are BetUS TV.

 

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