Jeff Nadu:

Doing great. Good to have you back as always. And not that Scott’s not a good host, but it’s nice when you both are hosts. You both do a good job, so thanks for having me. I didn’t play anything last night in baseball. I took the night off, but I see a couple that are interesting today. Excited to talk about them.

TC Barton:

All right, let’s do it. And the base winner back in the win column yesterday. I know you were a little down on yourself yesterday, but hey, you got there with the Giants on a one-nothing win. A little bit controversial. Play at the plate with the Padres last night. I was hoping we both could win last night, but the bigger picture here is the San Diego Padres continue to struggle since they made the blockbuster moves. They are one in five. They’ve lost five games in a row, and they’re playing some downright ugly baseball. And that boded very well for you last night, Mark.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. They have this offense, this high priced offense literally, and they can’t score. They haven’t scored in the last two games. And so, I think that offensively, if you look at the box score, San Francisco actually outperformed them last night. But you mentioned there was a controversial catching. They overturned a call that you were shaking your head saying, “How did they overturn that?”

TC Barton:

Yeah. I don’t know if anybody saw the game last night, but when the score was one-nothing, I believe it was at the bottom of the seventh inning when they tried to score a jury from first, and he slid home. The umpire called him safe, and immediately the Giant said, “No. Let’s challenge this.”

And this went on for about five minutes, and you would think that they would take the approach if it’s beyond a reasonable doubt, or enough evidence really to overturn. There was nothing there, and I was flipping back and forth to both the Giants broadcast and the Padre’s broadcast. There was real nothing there.

And what they finally determined was that Drewry slid over the plate before, he did a headfirst slide, and his hand looked like it came across. The empire initially called it safe, and after a lengthy delay, they went back and said, “Well, it looks like the tag was put on him while his hand was up in the air, as it was going over the plate.” And Padre fans went crazy, started throwing stuff on the field, and that was it. That was the game. That was their lone chance. That was the final score, one-nothing.

Mark Borchard:

The natives must be restless over there, TC. They’re looking for a reason to cheer.

TC Barton:

Well, and when you look at what this Padre team is doing, guys, which is virtually nothing, they are batting 160 in this five game winning streak, since they acquired Soto, and Bell, and Hader, and Hader got in the game last night, he didn’t look good. He was wild. Threw a couple to the backstop last night.

I don’t know about you guys. Jeff, I want your take on this. This Padre team is mirrored in a big time slump, and the results are not even close to looking like they’re getting paid off with these high price acquisitions.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. When you look at it, you would say if they were hitting, and they were just getting unlucky or something, then you would chalk it up. Maybe a save was blown or something, but that’s going to happen. But yeah, this is a continued problem. We’ve talked about this, TC, for months. This offense wasn’t good enough. Then, they make the moves, and you’re thinking, “Okay. Yeah. Now that’s going to change him things.” But again, that’s not going to completely change these.

Because Manny Machado came back, and wasn’t really effective for about two weeks. Hader’s had problems all year off and on. Look, they’re not going to catch the Dodgers. We all know that. But the truth is, now you have to … Imagine if they did all this, and didn’t get into the playoffs. Imagine that. That’d be wild. And look, it could happen. You never know.

TC Barton:

Yeah. They’re not a lock at all. They are just on the fringe right now, barely getting into the playoffs, if the playoffs started today. And I know that you look at the schedule, and people will say, “Well, they got eight easy series coming up to finish up the season, so it should be okay,” but they’re playing the Giants right now. Okay? They’re playing the Giants, and they’re not looking good.

So yeah, you can just see there’s something off here. Machado hit a rocket. He thought it was a homer last night. It went off the wall. He jogged to first base. When you see effort like that, and then you’re struggling to score, like you mentioned Base Winner, back to back games, you’ve gone 18 innings with zero, there’s a problem here definitely. And now, Musgrove’s going to go tonight-

Mark Borchard:

Well, he can do that because he’s Manny effing Machado.

TC Barton:

There you go. Exactly, yeah, yeah. And I know Jeff’s been on Musgrove quite a bit, and he likes him, but Musgrove hasn’t been good as of late as well, too. And when you look at this pitching staff, people want to rave about the pitching staff, but right now, this pitching staff is not good. They go and get Minaya, and he’s got arm problems. We talked about that yesterday. I was at the game on Friday night when he pitched, and he was horrendous. Just yeah, be careful [inaudible 00:05:20] the Padres. Maybe some unders look good right now, but I don’t even know if you can trust the pitching staff.

Jeff Nadu:

But the truth is the last couple nights, particularly last night, they got great pitching. Okay? They just didn’t hit. They didn’t score runs. And that’s really the issue right now. Okay? I think Snell, and Musgrove, and all these guys, long term I’m fine with them. Snell was terrific last night, but again, two straight games, that’s 18 innings, you haven’t scored a run. That’s pathetic. Three of the last four, they’ve scored one or less runs. Haven’t scored more than three since last Wednesday. That’s not good. That’s bad, as we know, but they need to get going.

TC Barton:

Yeah. And as far as Snell goes last night, he had that one rocky inning, which he gave up the one run. He had the bases loaded, nobody out. They were fortunate enough that they only gave up one, but that could’ve been a huge inning. He had control issues. He was at the, what, 75 pitch mark by the fourth inning last night. So yeah, I think big problems in Padre land. Keep an eye on that. As we know one thing, the Dodgers, they continue to roll in Los Angeles.

All right guys, before we look at today’s game, we’re going to handicap about four games today, but we’ll take a look at the updated record board. Like I said, Jeff, no action yesterday. Wasn’t with us. Base winner got the victory with the Giants. I went one on one yesterday. The Yankees did come through, so they got back on the winning track there with a victory in Seattle last night. We’ll talk about that game coming up a little bit later. Game two of that series. There’s your updated record board.

All right, guys, let’s dive into it today. Like I mentioned, four games, let’s kick it off with the Atlanta Braves in Boston. We will start there, and the Braves, they’re a $1.50 road favorite in this game. We know the Red Sox have really been struggling. Total in this game is nine in a half. This is our Bet US featured game of the day. Charlie Morton, we know he can be good at times. He can struggle at times. And then, the aging Rich Hill is pretty much the same here.

Guys, kind of a coin flip game. We know that the Braves are a $1.50 road favorite just because the Red Sox are still struggling here. And you just wonder, when you look at the Red Sox, it looks like they’ve mailed it in. But they didn’t get rid of JD Martinez, and a couple others they hung onto, so still a dangerous offensive team. And I don’t know about you guys, but a hard team to handicap. Base, what are your thoughts?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. This is a stay away game for me. I’ve got a price in the mall at minus 112, so that would show value on the Red Sox. I can’t play this Rich Hill, TC. He’s got a 40% location plus number. If you look at his Base Winner ERA, that’s up at like 4.55. Morton’s at 3.64. There’s almost a run difference between the starting pitching.

And I’m not going to play against this Atlanta Braves bullpen. I’ve got them number one, number two, or number three in baseball, depending on which chart I’m looking at. But nevertheless, this bullpen, a solid bullpen. I’m not going to play against it.

I’m trying to think of why is my model showing value on it? And I think it’s just basically because the Red Sox are at home, you get a little bit of an edge there. My model does have the Braves priced as a favorite, so maybe it’s just priced too high. I think if you lean anything, you lean Braves here. TC, is this the America’s team game, game of the day?

TC Barton:

There is Bit US game of the day, the matchup. There you go. You like that one?

Jeff, any thoughts on Charlie Morton tonight?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. If you asked me who I think wins, I would say Atlanta. I don’t think there’s any real interest in Boston at any level. I don’t like Rich Hill. How old is Rich Hill at this point? It’s got to be close to 40. It might be time to hang it up if you’re Rich Hill. Who, look, has had a little renaissance over the last three to five years.

But look, all that being said, I still really don’t want to back Morton either. I’d have put this line more at 125, 130. Morton’s just not real dependable. He’s better than Hill, but he’s not real dependable. Maybe over. Over’s a bit high at nine and a half, but it’s in Fenway.

That being said, there are a couple Red Sox that have decent numbers against Morton, so that could be something to keep an eye on. But just a coin flippy game. I think the number’s a bit high for me to get involved with. But if you ask me who wins, I think it’s Atlanta. If Boston’s striking out tonight, Atlanta will cruise. Because Morton’s a strikeout guy, and a guy that’s been very successful doing that, but I didn’t have much ultimately. If they were 125, I’d probably play Atlanta, but it’s just a little too high.

TC Barton:

If you want to go with the age game here, you would definitely play the over here. Because Charlie Morton, 38, Rich Hill, 42, so there you go.

Jeff Nadu:

Wow.

TC Barton:

Couple aging guys there. All right, so no play for us on this one tonight with Atlanta and Boston. And Atlanta continues to roll. Red Sox continue to struggle, and trying to make a late maybe wild card run here, but they got to get it cracking here.

All right, Cincinnati and the Mets, next up. We got Mike Minor going for the Reds. Going against Carlos Carrasco for the Mets. Red’s got minor, Carrasco, the Mets. The Mets, a huge favorite here, 3.10. We saw a $3 favorite last night. They cashed. And a 3.10 favorite again tonight, total eight and a half, minus 115 towards the over. Hard to get involved with anything that Cincinnati does, a play on them. But Jeff, you’re going to take a shot in this game, aren’t you?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I’m going to play the Mets in a game that I just view as seven-two, six-one, something like that. All in all, I think the Mets are going to win by margins. Pretty simple. And I don’t have much problem doing it. I will gladly play against Mike Minor, who look, if you know anything about Mike Minor, he had a year or two where he was effective three or four years ago, but been with a lot of different teams. I’ve been around the block many times, one of those journeymen. I don’t even know if I’d call him a ham and egger. He seems like pretty much just bad. That’s quite easy to say. Ponich hitting 280 against him. He’s got a whip just South of 1.6. Bass runners galore. He’s allowed 16 home runs over 56 innings. Just doesn’t really do anything well.

Carasco, a guy that really has come into his own. I know Mark isn’t a huge fan of his. And look, I’m not going to say he’s one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball or anything, but he’s an effective guy. They seem to play really well in his starts. You look at him 21 starts this year for Carasco, 12 wins, okay? Which is high. One of the I think top seven in baseball. They generally do well in his starts. You get a pretty good bullpen behind him.

And as we know with Cincinnati, the good thing about betting against this group is if you find a pitcher you don’t like, remember, they have the worst bullpen ERA in baseball by a wide margin. An ERA over five as a group. The next closest 4.76. This is a bad pitching staff in general. They’re a bad team, bad lineup. I like the Mets. I think they win by margin tonight. Six-two, something like that.

TC Barton:

Yeah. Base winner?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I agree with Jeff actually this game. And as far as Carrasco goes, I’m somewhat bullish on him. I have him 37th out of 150 pitchers. You look at his location plus number, and I’m finding some utility in this number, this location plus number against the line. He’s in the 90th percentile minor. That pretty much sums it up, his name. He shouldn’t be in the majors, he should be in the minors. The name is apropos for Mike Minor.

And he’s 18% percent out from a location plus standpoint. You look at the Base Winner ERA for these guys, Carlos Carrasco at 3.59, so that’s tidy. And then, if you look at Mike Minor, he’s 5.11. So yeah, I don’t have a problem with Jeff’s play. I was going to put it in a parlor with Ohtani.

I just can’t see, how do you play the other side, TC? And I’ve posed this question a couple times on this show, but I’m not trying to be a smart ass, but how do you play Cincinnati here, TC?

TC Barton:

No, you don’t. It’s virtually impossible to play them, especially with Minor. And you look at the Reds and think, okay, maybe they can score some runs, but again, the pitching is just so bad. The bullpen is just so bad. And the only reason I didn’t get on this game is I’m not a big Carrasco fan, because this is a guy that’s been around a long time. He was really bad early on in the season.

He has strung together three really good starts before his last one. Last one, he wasn’t very good. But then again, I looked at that, and I said, well, it’s against Chicago, the Cubs, it’s against Miami, and the lowly Padres who weren’t hitting at that time as well. He put up zeros on the board against those three opponents. But I guess for me to look at a 310 number with Carlos Carrasco, it just doesn’t make sense. But then again, when you add it up, Jeff’s right, he’s better than Minor. The Mets are so much better than the Reds. So yeah, if you’re going to play this game, you got to do it on the run line.

Jeff Nadu:

The truth is, one thing about Carrasco, and I’ve always been fascinated as to why certain pitchers get run support and certain others don’t. I remember when I was a kid, Cole Hamels used to never get run support when he would start. But you look at Carrasco, in the national league, third in run support per nine innings. And he’s got a run support of over 5.7 runs per game, which is only behind Logan Webb and Tyler Anderson. They play well when he pitches. And as I said, a distinct bullpen advantage here as well. This just seems like one of those margin wins for the Mets.

TC Barton:

It does. It does. All right, let’s lock Jeff in for that. He’s going to take the Mets, and go with a run line, and that’s going to lay 145. Really not bad when you consider that the regular line is 310 on this one. If you can cut that in half, that’s usually a good way to go on when you’re debating whether to play a run line with a regular line. Minus 145, lay run in a half with the Mets over the lowly Cincinnati Reds, or as base winner says, the minor league minor. I like that. There you go. Next up-

Mark Borchard:

Fitting name for the guy. The guy’s awful.

TC Barton:

It is. He is awful.

Next up, guys, let’s talk about the Dodgers. They are red hot like we talked about. They’ve won eight in a row. They’re still at home at Chavez Ravine, taking on the Minnesota Twins, who got a little rest day yesterday as well, too. And the total in this game is eight minus 115. [inaudible 00:15:49] over the Dodgers a big favorite here. Minus 230 and the Twins plus 190. Joe Ryan is going for the Twins today. Julio Urías for the Dodgers.

Guys, I’m going to take a shot with the Minnesota Twins here, and I’ll tell you why. The Dodgers have been great, they got an eight game winning streak, but those wins have, again, have come against the likes of the Padres, the Giants, and the Rockies. And now, they’re getting a very unfamiliar foe, and I like that when a team is going to face a pitcher they’ve never seen before in Joe Ryan.

And Joe Ryan is very good. And let’s mention, too, the Minnesota Twins, they’re a first place team themselves. Ryan has great control. He’s a big strikeout guy. Over his last three starts, he’s struck out 23. Only walked three. He’s given up two earned runs or less in five of his last six starts. He had one bad start in there. Granted throw that one away. But if you look at what this guy’s done all year, specifically five of the last six starts, the guy’s been nails. He is going to keep them in the game.

And like I said, the Dodgers have not seen him before, and I like that. Minnesota’s a top seven offensive team in just about all categories as well, too, and they got a very solid lineup when they’re healthy, and they’re very healthy at this point in time right now.

When a look at your Urías, he’s a guy we talk about run support. You remember, guys, when the Dodgers were scuffling a little bit for that stretch? Urías was one of those guys that was pitching well, but didn’t get the run support, and he really hasn’t got a lot of run support for this team. And plus, he’s very, very hittable as well, too. He’s not going to be a big, high strikeout guy. And if you look at his innings pitch to giving up hits, it’s comparable where he’s almost a hit per inning.

I like the Twins in this spot. It wouldn’t surprise me the Dodgers a little sleepy after that big series. They made a statement against the Padres. Minnesota comes in here, gets the bats alive here. I think they’re a live dog. I’m going to take the Twins. Base Winner?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I think it’s notable that you’re playing against the Dodgers. Is this a first on the show, TC?

TC Barton:

Nah, I don’t know if it’s the first.

Jeff Nadu:

Yes, it is.

TC Barton:

Maybe, yeah. It might be.

Mark Borchard:

It’s a very rare occurrence, so-

TC Barton:

Yeah, it’s rare.

Mark Borchard:

… just for that, it’s like wow, maybe you should take a look at Minnesota on this one. TC, my numbers agree with you on Ryan. You mentioned 23 and three, 23 strikeouts, three walks his last three starts. That’s a good look for him. I have him in the model at 36 in baseball, so he’s in with the run suppression number of 84. That’s comparable with Urías at 82. I actually have the Dodgers only priced at minus 107 here, and I put it out on the chart overnight. I sent out a chart. You can sign up. It’s all free at my site. And I put out Minnesota plus one and a half. I thought that was a better way to play this.

The one thing that’s keeping me off this game on this show is just Urías is just elite location. And I’ve made it a vow to myself that I’m not going to play, if these guys are in the top quartile in major league pitching, I’m just not going to play against him personally. And while my model likes to play, I just that 95 percentile for Urías from a location plus standpoint is keeping me off of it. But I like your play, TC. I think it really has legs there, and that’s a good price. You’re really stepping out on it, TC. I’m proud of you.

TC Barton:

Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I actually agree with you as well. And the number just seems a bit high. Minnesota’s a solid team, a pretty good bullpen. You mentioned Ryan’s a success. You’ve alluded to the fact that I think you mentioned since the start of July, he’s been real effective, and so is Urías. Urías has been fantastic all season, but both these guys are coming in at a great spot.

I like first five under, four and a half. That’s a little concerning when you play the Dodgers, just because that’s such a great lineup. And one weird thing about Urías that I’ve looked into is he’s given up 33 earned runs this year. Nine of them have come in the first inning, which is weird. If he could get past the first inning, he’s a pretty effective pitcher. Yeah, truly the first entering or two where he struggles a little bit, if he can get through those concerning spots, he just gets stronger as the game goes on.

Four and a half’s a nice little number. I think we see a couple of zeros pop up here. But yeah, I think the values there, I guess my only concern is, and something we touched on last week, and I continued thinking about it, was Scotty mentioned these teams just come in all the time, these big numbers. It’s hard to back a dog in baseball as the season goes on, but good spot to catch both pitchers. Maybe you throw a couple zeros in the board. I liked your play, but I also like the first five under, four and a half a little bit here. Maybe even a full game under eight. This screams like four-two to me.

TC Barton:

Yeah. I looked at the under in this game as well, too, and again, night games at Dodger Stadium tend to be a little bit low scoring. Ball doesn’t fly out of the park once the sun goes down there. But I thought here’s the reason, again, it’s a first place team, and this Minnesota team, they’ve got a very good offense. And again, with Ryan as well, too. And when you look at these big numbers that we’re seeing, like you’re talking about Jeff, of 2.50 and $3, that’s usually a game like the Mets of the Reds, not the Minnesota Twins. That’s the value comes in for me.

If you’re going to give me the Twins at anything, like plus 180 and 190 with their best pitcher going, I got to take a shot with it. And we’ve seen the Dodgers go in these little slumps. Now, I’ve said before, when Mookie bets is on, this team just rolls. And it goes that way for, I put a lot of credence into the lead-off hitter. And that’s why I didn’t care for Toronto last night, because Springer’s still out.

And so, when you have a lead-off hitter that is healthy and is on fire, then it’s like, “Wow, this team is going to go.” Because remember, your lead-off hitter gets up more times than anybody else. A little bit scary the way bets is playing, but Turner is out, Justin Turner is still out for the Dodgers. And just for some reason, and I don’t have anything to back this, it’s just a gut feeling, that the Dodgers just, they’re not going to continue what we’ve seen in that Padre series. And that was a big series for them, especially with the day off. I just think the Minnesota’s going to come in there, and give it to them tonight. [inaudible 00:22:08] live dog.

Jeff Nadu:

If I’m creating this number, I make it 180. I think 230’s too high. This is obviously, look, if you’re back in the Dodgers, look, you’re going to pay a premium on playing the Dodgers. I think it’s a great spot. It’s a spot that is just too big to pass up. I guess the concern is they’re just goating you into taking it, but I think it’s a good spot. Good call.

TC Barton:

Yep. We’ll give it a shot. We’ll give it a shot. All right, so I’m on the Minnesota Twins, plus money tonight at plus 190.

All right, let’s go to the Yankees and Seattle tonight. The Yankees finally got back in the win column after stamping the five game streak last night. Seemed like a pretty easy handicap, especially when we talked about the price yesterday, so that was great. When are you going to get the Yankees at basically 110 or less? Well, tonight, you’re going to get them at 127. And Garrett Cole is going for the Yankees tonight, and then Castille came over from the Reds, pitching for the Mariners tonight. If you like Seattle, get plus 117 in this game.

Let’s go to this game, and talk to Base Winner. Yankees, Mariners, what do you think?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I’ve got to play on this one. I like the under in this game a lot. What’s interesting about this game is it’s priced at seven minus 120, under seven minus 120, which is exactly what the same pitching, the same teams were priced in Yankee stadium. And if you look at the park factors, whether you’re looking at home runs, or just runs allowed, you’ve got the Yankees home run park factor in the top 10, and then you’ve got Seattle, their home run park factor’s second or third in baseball, depending on versus left, versus right-handed pitching. And you got a runs factor that’s second or third from the bottom, from a park factor standpoint.

I’m kind of confused, and I’m actually happy that they have it priced the same at seven minus 120 that they did at Yankee Stadium. I think that we have the same matchup, which I played under there, and that didn’t turn out for me very good, but I thought it was a good play. And at a park that’s just so much more pitcher friendly, T-Mobile Park.

I’ve got it priced 5.6 runs. You look at Cole, his location plus number, tidy, 72 percentile. Castile, 59 percentile. In fact, I’ve got Cole sixth best in baseball. He’s a 62 run suppression number. Seattle, Castillo’s at 85% run suppression number. He’s 38th in baseball. And then, we talk about these bullpens, and I’ve talked about how much I like the Seattle bullpen, and they’re first in baseball.

And yeah, the Yankees, they have blown a couple saves, and they have blown a couple saves for me personally, but I still like them. They’re 10th in baseball. You look at the last 30 days, you look at where the Yankees stack up as far as expected strikeout percentage, expected walk rate, they’re ninth in baseball.

Even though they’ve struggled a little bit, they’ve still shown some pretty good utility over the last 30 days. And I just think that Cole, he really didn’t have a good game his last time out, but if you look outside of that first inning where he just was off, and he actually ended up striking out eight guys, walking only one. And we talked about 23 strikeouts, three walks for Joe Ryan in the last game we covered. Well, that’s the identical number here for Garrett Cole, 23 strikeouts, three walks. Not too shabby there from a recency standpoint.

And then, one thing I just wanted to mention before we move on is Castillo’s, sometimes he’s unhittable. Watched him against Tampa Bay when he faced up against McClannahan, it was actually on McClannahan in Tampa Bay, and I wish I wasn’t because Castillo, there was a stretch of about 16, 17 batters where his stuff was just unhittable. And so, hopefully we can get him going there, and if it’ll be close going into the bullpens. And I like both bullpens, so I’m going to play the under here, TC.

TC Barton:

I’m rooting you on, Mark, but like I’ve said before, I’m worried about Garrett Cole. I said it two months ago, and you look at his last two starts, and again, his last start was against Seattle in that seven-three game, where he gave up six runs, gave up five before that. In his 21 starts, this guy’s given up six runs or more in six of his 21 starts. To me, that’s alarming. I think there’s something wrong, especially when we see back to back starts from him like this, where he’s giving up five runs and six runs. He’s very, very hittable, and it just I think there’s some problems with Cole here. Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I think there is, too. You look over his last 12 innings, he’s given up 11 earned runs, four home runs over his last 12 innings. I was blown away in looking. Look, I know he’s pitched 130 innings, but 21 home runs he’s given up. That’s a lot of home runs. That’s bad, quite frankly. You look at where that ranks in baseball, and again, I know it’s all about qualify, and he’s pitched a lot more innings, but you look at Castillo, he’s pitched over 91 innings, only he’s given up eight home runs, which I know it’s lot less innings.

But that being said, I look at what Mark said, I think this number should probably be one of the six and a halfs. These are two real good pitchers, but I think there’s some value in Seattle here. I’m not a big Seattle guy, but I agree with him on Castillo. He’s an elite guy, a guy that just is unhittable at certain times.

And I like the advantage you have with Castillo. Garrett Cole’s been off recently. I guess the only concern is that there is something wrong with him, and he gives up some home runs, but that last start gave up three to Seattle. And those can evaporate quick as far as runs when you have a seven out there, but it screams three-two to me. That was my thought, but I like Seattle as well with Castillo. I think he’s just pitching better than Cole right now.

TC Barton:

Okay. All right. We’re going to put Base Winner down for the under in this game. Yankees and Seattle, Cole and Castillo. Banking on Castillo to turn in a gem here tonight. Under seven is the number minus 120.

Jeff Nadu:

Hey TC.

TC Barton:

Yo.

Jeff Nadu:

Since July 2nd, Cole’s ERA on July 2nd was 299. Today, 3.56. It’s a rough month, man.

TC Barton:

No. No, it’s rather alarming. And again, it’s not like it’s just the last two outings, he’s gone through these stretches before. And I mentioned, when you give up as a starting pitcher in the ACE, and especially the money that this guy is making, when you say that six of his 21 starts, this guy’s giving up at least five runs, it’s rather alarming.

I think what Base Winner’s got going for him tonight though, you don’t have Julio Rodriguez at the top of lineup. I mentioned that yesterday. They are a different team. The Yankees bats have been scuffling, but they did get out that last night. But I thought it was a great advantage for the Yankees going against Logan Gilbert last night. They snapped out of that, but they’re not facing Logan Gilbert tonight. They’re facing a very good pitcher in Castillo. So yeah, to me-

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, I don’t know.

TC Barton:

… I used to be on the Yankees guys. I was. I was going to be right back on him, but Garrett Cole scared me off.

Mark Borchard:

It’s perplexing because if you look at his strikeouts to walks, it’s 46-four, his last five starts.

TC Barton:

Oh yeah.

Mark Borchard:

The reasons he’s good as far as that goes, and that’s really what a pitcher can control. Hey, sometimes these guys play good swings on the ball. And I don’t know, I don’t think, by any means, I’m not concerned about Cole at all. Not in any stretch.

TC Barton:

I don’t know why it is, but when we look at a lot of these guys who give up a lot of runs, they do have high strikeouts in the game. And there was a couple games the last two days I was handicapped, and same thing where a guy gave up four or five earned runs, but they had 11 strikeouts and only one walk. And for some reason, it’s either big bats, or they get swing and misses there.

But that is a weird stat, and I would be curious why that is, Mark. When you start looking at analytics like that, will you see guys that will have, you’ll look over at the column on the right and say, “Hey, this guy’s got 11 strikeouts,” but then he gave up five earned runs, he gave up nine hits. What happened in that game? And I see that quite often, and that’s what Cole’s line has been the last couple games.

Mark Borchard:

Well, yeah. And if you look at his median, this goes back to the last 41 starts, his median home run’s allowed as one. Okay? His average is 0.98. He’ll probably give up a home run here. I wouldn’t be surprised if he does. The key is you don’t want guys on base there, so his walk rate’s low, his strikeout rate’s low. I’ll take a solo home run. Hell, I’ll take two if he doesn’t have guys on base, which is what it’s showing.

But the home runs and the hits are probably what you need the biggest sample for. And some people would say you need over 1200 played appearances to get a reliable home run number on this. Some of it’s random, some of it, if you look with a longer sample size, I think you can expect one home run for the opposite team.

Now having said that, this is one of the things that went into my handicap. You’re in Seattle where the park factor for home runs is at a 0.85. This is one of the parks where I think if you have a home run problem, you can get away with it. You get a little bit of an edge just by the park that you go into. Hopefully he has one of those games where he doesn’t give up a home run, but if he gives up one and there’s nobody on, I don’t think there’s any harm in that, TC.

TC Barton:

You got it. Okay. Let’s go to our questions here. Hit us on the chat room for a couple minutes here. Any of the games that we hit or we did not cover, we’ll take those questions. Let’s start with Marky Mark. He wants thoughts on Ohtani going tonight. Ohtani in a first five inning matchup. Any thoughts on this, Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. Look, I think the same holds true with Ohtani anytime he pitches. Look, I have interest in backing Shohei Ohtani, the one bright bulb of the Angels. That being said, pretty much everything else I don’t want to back the Angels in. Their lineup sucks. That being said, they are playing Oakland, who is significantly worse than they are, and I’m not really into Caprelli. There’s one major advantage here, and that’s Shohei Ohtani.

That being said, yeah, if I’m going to play in its first five, do I have the balls to maybe lay a half run? I hope they could scratch out a run or two. Yeah, that would be the only way I’d look at it. I’m never going to say, “Hey, I’m going against Ohtani,” especially with Oakland.

TC Barton:

Yeah. And it’s really hard to play either one of these teams, but I looked at this game last night, I said, “I think I’m going to get on the Angels.” But then, I looked at the price at minus 175, and then I looked at that lineup again, and I’m going, “Gee, no Trout, no Rendon.” They just continue to struggle. Then, you got to deal with the bullpens of Ohtani. He doesn’t go deep into the game, so I said, “I’m off the game.”

And this is, again, two of these teams that you just you can’t play at any point in time. If you’re going to play it, yeah, you’re going to have to look at a first five under with Ohtani. Base Winner, any thoughts on that?

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I’ve played these Angels the last few times out, and they haven’t scored any runs for me. This guy’s been amazing. He had a stretch of six straight starts with double [inaudible 00:33:12] strikeouts. He pitched pretty good in his last time out against Oakland, seven strikeouts and only one walk. I’ve got it priced at minus 262, and I was really just I was damn close to putting it into parlay with the Mets. I just can’t see the Reds winning that game at all. I think that Jeff has a good play there going.

But I just, I don’t know. I think I’m twice bitten. What do they say? Once bitten, twice shy. I think I’m twice bitten, one shy, because I’m not going to play this game. I’m sick and tired of playing Ohtani, having him throw lights out, and this team can’t score any runs. But if you play it, and I might by the end of the day put it into parlay with the Mets, but I don’t know. It doesn’t feel good when the pitcher comes out there, and just goes lights out, and the team can’t score any runs, TC.

TC Barton:

Yeah, we know that. Tareek has a question regarding the Astros in the Rangers today. Orkiti’s going against Martin Perez today. Thoughts on this game here, guys? Astros, I’d love to play the Astros today, but again, I’m not going to do it against Martin Perez. And knowing that Tucker still could be out, and maybe he comes back today. That’s a big question mark. And probably not going to have Dusty back in the dugout again today. Still recuperating from a COVID test, which he’s really doesn’t have any of the symptoms, but again, he’s got to be out for that. But I don’t know. I’m just staying away from this game with Orkiti and Perez. We know Perez has been good. We know the Base Winner doesn’t like him, but-

Mark Borchard:

You know what? I do, but what’s the deal with Orkiti? I’ve got him just awful in this model. Am I missing something?

TC Barton:

Orkiti can throw. He’s just like Javier. He really has good stuff, but there are those outings where he could get hit upon. Javier and Orkiti are two of the same like that. You’re going to get some good spots with him. I don’t know if today’s a good spot, so that’s why I’m just laying off.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. I’m looking at his median. This is last 17 games. His median strikeouts four, his median walks one. Ground ball percent is 36%, so that’s a 4.47. That makes sense, because I have him in the model at a 121, but his location number’s good. He’s in the 90th percentile. And I can’t believe I’m going to say this, but I think if you play the game, you play Martin Perez here.

Actually, Perez has really climbed up in the rankings. I’ve got him 11% better than average, which considering where he started in my ratings, it’s just a meteoric rise in the Base Winner ratings. His location plus number at 89 percentile. I think if you play this, as much as Martin Perez has been a villain in the past, he’s not a villain tonight. I would go with Texas.

TC Barton:

I was at the game when Orkiti pitched his last outing against Boston. The guy nearly threw a no-hitter. He went seven innings, only gave up two hits, and he shut out Boston, 10 strikeout, no walks. And you get that with Orkiti. He’s got really good stuff.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. He’s got a 10-zero and nine-zero, a 10-one. And then, he’s got a bunch. He’s got a three-four, a three-three, got two-one. I don’t know. I guess that’s what you get. Maybe the play there in the future with Orkiti is you lay it on a minus two and a half or something, because he could be lights out, TC.

TC Barton:

Yeah. He can be good. Jeff, any thoughts?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, I’m going to add a play here. Let me just explain Martin Perez. In two starts this year against Houston, 16 innings, he had a complete game, and only given up one and run over 16 innings. Hasn’t walked anybody. Nine strikeouts. And let me tell you something, for anyone that’s not blown away. Now, maybe I’ll get into a Mark comment here. I’m about to say it, but when we just look at runs per game, Houston is actually statistically better than Houston. In fact, they are significantly better on the road. This group averages 4.7 runs a game on the road.

Now, I’m not going to say Orkiti sucks or anything, but the truth is Martin Perez has been better, especially against Houston. I’m going to take Martin Perez and Texas first five, plus 145. Look, they could lose, whatever, but I think I got the little value here on Martin Perez, who I think is the better pitcher. He’s dominated Houston this year. And I want to avoid that bullpen. Though I do like Texas bullpen, I think Houston’s is among the best in baseball. I’m going to play Texas plus 145 here, first five. I just hope it works, and I get my money back, but I’m going to take a shot with them here.

TC Barton:

Okay. [inaudible 00:37:50].

Mark Borchard:

I can’t disagree with him, TC. I don’t know. People are going to start getting like, I want you guys to fight more in the form. We’ve been simpatico on a lot of stuff over the last week and a half. But I agree with him, I think if you play that, that’s the way you play it.

TC Barton:

Well, you can look at the ender as well, too. If Orkiti’s on, which again, he’s as good at home, and he was his last start. And again, I’ll go back to this, guys. With that six man rotation, these guys arms are fresh. They’re fresher than any team, because nobody else is getting these five days off. Now you throw in an off day as well, too. It’s been a week. I just said, I was at, August 3rd, I was at the game, that was a week ago that he pitched. I look for Orkiti to throw up a gem himself. If I had to play this game, I’d probably look at the under, because I believe in both pitchers. And you’re right, Martin Perez is fantastic. No question about that. But Orkiti at home, well rested, against a team that he’s faced several times, yeah, under looks good. But we’ll [inaudible 00:38:47].

Jeff Nadu:

If dogs are coming in tonight, we’re going to do well, TC. Because you have a dog. I have a dog. We’re going against two of the, arguably, the World Series match up in the Astros and Dodgers.

TC Barton:

That’s true.

Jeff Nadu:

We’re going against both of them. Let’s hope at least one of them comes in.

TC Barton:

I hope so. Ra, ra, ra. Phillies in Miami. Any thoughts on that? Start with you, Jeff.

Jeff Nadu:

Wow. Not really.

TC Barton:

Base Winner? I feel the same way.

Mark Borchard:

Listen, I’d go under on it. Okay? I got it at 6.6 runs. It’s seven and a half. Both guys have really good location plus numbers. Both of them are elite. Braxton Garrett, talk about a guy come out of nowhere. He really scores well by my numbers. Yeah, if I think I had to play it, I’d go with the under here.

Jeff Nadu:

Listen, I think by this point, guys, and some of these matches that people ask about, I know people want to ask questions, but it’d be Phillies or pass. The Phillies are better against lefties than they are against righties. I don’t ever have any interest in the Marlins. I’ll occasionally back them. I bet them a week or two ago without Contara against the Reds, and they’re the one team that they might be better than Miami. Miami’s not good. I don’t really want to back them in any circumstance.

But I will say this, as a Phillies guy, being from this area, this Phillie’s team has struggled mightily over the years against Miami. For whatever reason, they just struggle. I think the under, as Mark alluded to, makes a lot of sense here. I get a weird feeling the Phillie’s offense is going to be all over. And whoa, what a surprise, the Phillie’s at home again. Does this team ever play on the road? Seriously. They’re at home every game it seems like.

TC Barton:

They do, Jeff. 81 times a year, they play on the road.

Jeff Nadu:

It doesn’t seem like they’re ever-

Mark Borchard:

They play the Nationals every night. That was funny. He said that on the show the other day, he’s like, “It seems like they’re playing the Nationals every night.” It does seem like they play the Nationals every night. That’s funny, Jeff.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah.

TC Barton:

All right. And real quick, let’s roll through these questions here. Mark’s asking us about Minnesota to score first. Yeah, I think Minnesota could jump on. Carlos Correa, maybe a double or a homer in the first inning. I like that. Why not.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah, you had the two C’s right. Jeff made an interesting point. [inaudible 00:40:59]-

TC Barton:

I got Carlos Carrasco on my mind still.

Mark Borchard:

Exactly. No, no, no. I can see how you would confuse those two. That makes perfect sense. I’m agreeing with Jeff again, if this guy’s struggling in the first inning. That was a really interesting point, because maybe you play something after the first inning with Urías. Because he’s like, “Okay. Well, he’s got this elite location.” But as Jeff mentioned, he struggles in the first inning, so maybe on this game, you wait, you wait to see what happens in that first inning, and then you play an under or something in that game.

TC Barton:

Right. And then, with Chris’s question, you talked a lot about Cy Young Award winners. Does Martin Perez have a shot? Should he be the favorite for the Cy Young? And I say no. A guy from a losing team is not going to be the Cy Young Award winner, no matter how good he is. Verlander’s going to get more votes. You’re going to go with a winning team. And Perez is a good pitcher, but you rarely see that. But you still got, again, two months, a month and a half for this thing to play out, so that’s my quick thoughts on Chris’s question regarding Martin Perez and the Cy Young.

Anthony has a question here. He says, “Are you optimistic on any basement dwelling teams using prospects as a potential for next year?” Not sure I totally understand the question here, but if he’s basically saying that these teams are just going to go with young prospects for the rest of the year, I don’t know how either one of you guys read that question.

Jeff Nadu:

Baltimore maybe? I don’t know.

Mark Borchard:

I think maybe what he’s asking is if you see any value with some of these younger teams bringing up guys from the minor leagues. And I think it’s really, from a handicapping standpoint, it’s tough. It’s tough to make predictions on guys who have a track record of 500 played appearances, let alone some of these projections for guys that they’re calling up. And some of them pan out, and some of them don’t. And I think what we’ve talked about on this show over the last probably week or so is how good these favorites have been in recent times over the last three years. I think you got to tread lightly with these teams that are calling these guys up. I think they’re hard to evaluate. They’re really tough, TC.

TC Barton:

Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

One thing I do want to mention, and maybe I’m just seeing weird things here, but why is Toronto only a 1.58 against Baltimore? I know Baltimore’s been better, but I don’t know what people have noticed in Bradish that makes you want to have any interest in backing him today. Manoah’s been bullet on. You talk about another guy that gets a ton of run support, gets a lot of decisions. They give him support. Good strike out guy. Why is this price only 158? I thought that was a little low. I would’ve put this number much higher, close to 200. I know Baltimore’s better, but I think Toronto is, they’ve been seeing the ball well for weeks, months on end here.

TC Barton:

I think a couple reasons. One is, again, when you go back to that lead-off hitter, with Springer being out, there is a void at the top of the line-up for Toronto. And Baltimore’s coming off another win last night, a home win. And you watch this team, even though they’ve got a lot of victories against maybe a lot of the lesser teams as of late, but they’re still the flavor of the month I think, and that’s why they’re at home. I think that’s why you are seeing that here. And if you look at Manoah, Manoah’s been good, Jeff, but I don’t think he’s been as good the last couple starts.

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. Well, you know what?

TC Barton:

I think that’s the only reason I can come up with.

Jeff Nadu:

You know what? I need to make units up here, and I’m getting to the point of no return. And look, I see value here. Bradish sucks. Okay? I’m sorry.

TC Barton:

Yeah, yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

56 innings-

TC Barton:

I looked at this game. Yeah.

Jeff Nadu:

Opponents at 319 off him. He’s got a whip close to 1.7. Bradish sucks. All right? Manoah’s significantly better. Even without Springer, this lineup is still solid. I’m going to MLB picks on Baltimore. Okay? Baltimore’s still not a good offensive team. I’m taking Toronto. I’m going to lay 158 here. I’m going to throw three plays up. Two of which I’m laying 140 or higher, and I’m taking Texas against the best team at baseball. This could get wild tonight, but I’m here for it. Toronto minus 158 I’m adding. Eff it.

TC Barton:

Jeff might even spend some time in front of the television tonight. Look at that. Watching baseball.

Jeff Nadu:

No, I’m actually not going to, but-

Mark Borchard:

I think this show is so much better when he adds plays. Dude, I want to see him drink the coffee and talk when he adds the play.

Jeff Nadu:

Well, you know what? I got a mug. I don’t have anything in it, but there’s a bit of cold here.

TC Barton:

Looks like a Temple cup, too.

Jeff Nadu:

TU for Temple U. Fight, fight, fight for the [inaudible 00:45:37].

TC Barton:

How’d I know that? There it is. Thank you, John Cheney. Appreciate that.

Mark Borchard:

Good call, TC.

TC Barton:

All right. Wrapping things up here. Cleveland, Detroit. Cubs, Nats. Any thoughts on those games, guys?

Jeff Nadu:

What do we ask about the whole board here? My God.

TC Barton:

Yeah. Hey, people like the-

Mark Borchard:

Well, we might as well. That’s what that’s here for.

TC Barton:

[inaudible 00:45:55].

Mark Borchard:

These guys have questions, we’ll give you answers. And I’m going to give you an answer on this Cleveland game. I’ve got it priced at minus 223. Showing value with Shane Bieber. Bieber has really done well this year. He’s 32nd at 150 pitchers in my ratings. And Tyler Alexander, there’s not really much to say about him. He’s 135th out of 150 pitchers. If you have to play this Cleveland, Detroit game, lay the sauce here, TC.

TC Barton:

I’m with you on this. I looked at this game, but again, a lot of sauce there at minus 190. And I probably just grazed over this game, but yeah, Cleveland is probably the right side here. Maybe even a run line play. But I will not raise my fist or my coffee mug, which I don’t have, because I really don’t drink coffee, at a play on this one, but I would be tempted. All right.

Mark Borchard:

You don’t drink coffee. Well, you’re just naturally energetic.

TC Barton:

I got a natural high. There it is.

Mark Borchard:

Yeah. No, it’s good. I would think that you’re probably three cups deep into the show actually-

Jeff Nadu:

I got to be honest-

Mark Borchard:

… because you bring it, TC.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m just going to be real, TC. Listen, I don’t know that much about you. You’re a good guy. I like talking to you. That’s a wild move to not like coffee. That’s crazy to me. I’ve never encountered someone that doesn’t like coffee. That’s-

TC Barton:

Really? Yeah. I just-

Jeff Nadu:

That’s nuts.

TC Barton:

Just as a youngster, I just never looked at it. Didn’t like it. I am a big tea guy. I love tea. I’m a sweet tea guy. Love my sweet tea with just about every meal. I’m a Pepsi guy, could be a Coke guy, but not a coffee guy. Just never got into it.

Jeff Nadu:

I’m saying. I’m just being real. I can’t say, now knowing that, I don’t know that I trust you. That’s a weird thing. Why do you not like coffee? Every adult likes coffee.

TC Barton:

Yeah. I was one of these guys, Jeff, that when I was young, I said, “Okay,” I played all sports, I was an athlete, and I was just always, I was told anything caffeine, and tobacco, and all that kind of stuff, I just wasn’t that rebel, and I didn’t do it. And I saw my parents drink coffee all the time, and I go, “What is that? It looks ugly.” I tasted my dad’s coffee one time, no, forget about it. I’ve never got into coffee.

Even though the Starbucks stuff looks kind of cool, the flavors and all that, I just never got into coffee. I was always told it’s going to slow me down. I was a speedster, had good wheels. “Stay away from the caffeine and the coffee,” and I just never got into it. I don’t know.

Jeff Nadu:

I don’t know.

TC Barton:

That’s my story. It’s true. It’s weird.

Jeff Nadu:

[inaudible 00:48:20].

TC Barton:

There it is. An adult who doesn’t drink coffee. That’s me. There it is. All right. But I do like your Temple cup though. I like that.

Jeff Nadu:

Thank you.

TC Barton:

All right, man. Best bets. Let’s go. Now, we’re going to have to keep track here, because Nadu added a couple here. I have to be reminded. We’ll go Mets laying a run in a half at minus 145. He’s got Martin Perez and the Rangers. First five Texas, right? Not the under. We’re talking Texas, right, Jeff?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I’m going first five Texas, plus 145. Mets minus one and a half. And Toronto, minus 158 against the Charm City Orioles. Bodymore Murderland, let’s go.

TC Barton:

There you go. Put that down in the books for our crew there back in the control room, and write Nadu’s picks there. I’m going with one dog. Tonight is the Minnesota Twins, plus 190 against those red hot Dodgers. Hoping that Joe Ryan and the Twins offense show up tonight against Urías.

Base Winner’s got the Yankees Seattle game under seven. And did you add a play, Base Winner? Are you-

Mark Borchard:

No. No, I didn’t.

TC Barton:

I know you didn’t.

Mark Borchard:

I didn’t.

TC Barton:

Okay. There you go. But yeah, hey, I added a play when I was on last week as well, too, and I got home when I added that Giants play last week, so there you have it.

All right, guys. Appreciate it as always. Good stuff here today. Full slate today.

Jeff Nadu:

One other thing before we go, I wanted to tell you guys, I had a delicious meal last night. I cook once in a while, and I, for whatever reason, was very hungry for an old favorite, an old cafeteria favorite, a sloppy Joe, which I haven’t had in many years. And I found a recipe. I called my mom, I said, “Hey, I need a recipe.” I made it. I got to tell you, delicious. I had a few of them. I don’t eat much like that anymore. I limit calories, and only eat one meal a day. It was delicious. Very good. That’s an underrated little treat.

TC Barton:

Okay.

Mark Borchard:

That sounds like something TC would like.

TC Barton:

There you go. There you go. You’re talking my tune.

Now, here’s my question. Why I haven’t had a sloppy Joe since fifth grade in the cafeteria at Theodore Judah Elementary School, Jeff, I don’t know what’s in it. I’m glad you brought this up. I am definitely a meat snob, okay? I have to have quality shredded beef. My hot dogs got to be 100% all beef. I’m a filet mingnon or a Wagyu type of guy. I want to know what kind of meat do you use in a sloppy Joe? Is it hamburger, or what is it?

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah. I’m just using traditional ground beef, hamburger. Yeah, absolutely.

TC Barton:

Okay.

Jeff Nadu:

Now, you’re throwing the onion, the green pepper in there, the different spices and sauces. I’m also a big fan of getting the, look, any sandwich you eat, it is, and this is why I would never eat a sandwich on the West coast, anywhere past Pittsburgh, I ain’t eating a sandwich basically, unless you’re getting bread shipped in. The only thing that matters in a sandwich is the bread, okay? And I have the terrific bread. Throw a little bit of cheese on top, little provolone cheese, simmer it in the oven for a minute or two, get the little toasted roll, fantastic.

TC Barton:

But doesn’t the sloppy Joe encompass sauce, right? Isn’t there some type of-

Jeff Nadu:

Yeah, it’s mixed in. There’s ketchupy. It’s a zesty, savory sauce. Yeah. It’s all mixed in.

TC Barton:

All right. That sounds like a combination of a hamburger or meatloaf is what it’s sounding if you use regular ground beef.

Jeff Nadu:

It’s similar to [inaudible 00:51:46]. Yeah, that’s exactly what it is. It’s also similar to, whenever you make a taco, you’re going to throw all that stuff in together. It’s just the different spices and stuff you’re using inside of it. Yeah.

TC Barton:

All right. The sloppy Joe, there you go. Let’s rename it the sloppy Nadu. Let’s do that. I like that. There you go.

Jeff Nadu:

Call me that on Saturday nights [inaudible 00:52:06].

TC Barton:

Whoa, there we go. Take us to the bar. All right. All right, guys. Appreciate it, as always. Make sure you listen, and watch, and follow the show, subscribe to the show. Hit that bell, and get the notifications when we go live, 12 noon every weekday, Monday through Friday here. Always fun with the three of us, and when Scott joins us three days a week as well, too.

All right, good luck. We’re rooting for some dogs tonight. Hopefully we can bring it home. I appreciate everyone for joining us. For Jeff and for the Base Winner, TC Martin saying so long. We’re back at it again tomorrow right here at The MLB Show on Bet US TV.