The MLB Show
TC:
And a happy Wednesday to everyone joining us here on BetUS TV. This is the MLB show. I am TC Martin and flanked left to right by our handicappers, Jeff Nadu and Scott Spreitzer. Glad to have everyone with us here today on the MLB show. Wednesday means a full slate of games, a lot to choose from today, and we will dive into it. Glad to have everyone with us, and you guys, Scott, what’s going on my friend?
Scott:
Man, it’s good to be on with you guys. I haven’t seen Jeff in a little while after taking some time off, but looking forward to this card TC, we were talking before the show and I had mentioned, I do have the best MLB betting that I’m going to give later on in this show, but I’ve got six or seven plays today guys, that are all fairly small, but still plays. And probably my fullest card of first five plays that I’ve had in quite some time. So we can chat about that as we get deeper into it. But looking forward to the big card. No doubt.
TC:
All right. We’ll dive into that. Jeff hanging out in the Jersey short day, doing a little handicap in as well. What’s going on my friend? I see a little tan with you over there.
Jeff:
Well, I’m trying to get one, but it was cloudy yesterday. But it’s nice today, so maybe we’ll get something today. I’m off a winner last night. How about that performance last night by Lopez, TC?
TC:
Yes. Pablo Lopez came up big last night for those Marlins in a low scoring affair. So Pablo looked he was back so congratulations on that victory, my friend. Very nice. All right. With all that being said, we’ll get the updated record board up there for everyone to see as well too. And base winner and myself were not as fortunate last night, we had a couple losers on the card there last night. But hey, we’ll play the National Anthem again today, hopefully, and see what we can get.
The Subway Series guys, very, very interesting. We talked a little bit about it yesterday. The excitement, anytime the Yankees and the Mets get together, it doesn’t matter what stadium it was, but watching and listening to a little bit of that game last night, just gave me some chills. I mean, I love the tradition, I love when you have you opposing fans in a neighborhood ballpark that are there as well, too. And again, too bad it’s only a two game series, but tonight Max Scherzer is going to hit the mound for the Mets here tonight. We’ll handicap that game a little bit later on, but any thoughts about the Subway Series and all the balls that were flying out of City Field last night, guys?
Scott:
Well, as far as the Yankees are concerned, we talked about this, I think it was on Monday. I think Mark mentioned to you, who would you rather have the Houston Astros or the Yankees when he came to the pitching and all that kind of stuff. And just thinking about that for just a second, from a couple of days ago, you don’t bash your way to a World Series win. And the Yankees got adjustments and some tweaking to do, to get where they need to be, where for instance, the Astros really don’t. I mean, they’re pretty much set. Their biggest concern is which pitcher is going to get left out of the starting rotation when it comes to the post season. But they’ve got some tweaking to do with this Yankees team because they do rely a little bit too much I think, on trying to hit the ball out of the park and obviously score a lot of runs. And when you get deep into the post season, you’re going to have to be able to pitch better than this team has been doing of late.
So that’s my biggest take with the Yankees thus far. Are they a great team? Absolutely. Are they elite level, great chance to win the World Series? Well, if they get their pitching to get back on track. But if they don’t, I just can’t see them getting out of the American league unless they get this pitching under control. You don’t slam your way to a World Series championship.
TC:
Yeah. Agree. And like I said we’ve talked so many times before about Houston having the Yankees number and really dominating, not just this season, but during the course of the past post seasons as well. And as far as the Mets go, Jeff, as we know this team can be a little bit streaky, but, getting a win they got yesterday and then an opportunity to maybe get a two game sweep here with Scherzer going on the mound today against a banged up Herman here who hasn’t pitched too much, because he’s been injured. This could go a long way with the Mets, especially get another home victory today.
Jeff:
Yeah. I mean, it’s really one of those barometer type of things. Because when we look at [inaudible 00:04:16], obviously we know the Yankees are very good, we know that the Astros are very good. In the NL it’s really a question of looking around, who is the best team in the NL? Obviously you hear a lot about the Dodgers, but we’ve talked about with them, some of their pitching, Gonsolin’s starting to come back to earth, I don’t know if they can match up with the Mets from a pitching standpoint.
But I want to mention the Yankees. Throw in the fact that this king kid is out for a while in the bullpen, that’s a big loss. That’s a group that just doesn’t have a very good pitching unit. They have a couple guys, but as Scott talked about, Houston is strong at every level. If they have a flaw, I’d to hear it. I don’t know what it is. I’ve said for weeks, months, this is the best team in baseball. And as he alluded to as well, great point, which I’ve talked about, if they’re not hitting home runs, are they effective? That’s really a big question.
And I see a Houston team that’s just better at every level than they are. And they’ve had a good success against the Yankees. So yeah, this is nice to see these big teams playing each other. And the Mets are that kind of interesting team. They look that team from several years ago, I think it was six, seven years ago that played, what was it, Kansas City in the World Series. Could be that team again this year.
TC:
All right, we’ll see what happens here with this. And remember trade deadline is right around the corner as well too. There are a lot of guys that are tipping their hat to the crowd. We saw that with Wilson Contreras yesterday with the Cubs. And Frankie Montas after he left the game last night, he just, he was kind of emotional and said, “Hey, I got this feeling. I played my last game here.”
And bringing it back to the Astros guys, a lot of people think, Hey, the Astros are pretty much set, but James Click has gone on record and said he’s been trying to pull the trigger here to maybe make some moves. I’m not sure the Astros really need anybody for that. But, there are several A’s that are going to be going elsewhere.
And a lot of times we see this within the division because you see guys play each other so many times that sometimes you fall in love with those guys. And I think Click is looking at this Astros A Series, especially as well as the A’s have been playing, that there may be an Oakland A that ends up on the Houston Astros or a couple A’s that maybe end up somewhere else. So keep an eye on that because this is definitely that time of year that we are going to see people changing uniforms.
All right, guys, let’s take a look at today’s games. Like I said, we’re going to handicap five games on the card here today. And we are going to start with the Minnesota Twins and the Milwaukee Brewers. And we’ve got Chris Archer going for Minnesota today and Corbin Burnes back at it for Milwaukee today. The Brewer’s a big favorite at home minus $2. The total in this game is eight minus 1.15 towards, the under its Twins, it’s Brewers. Jeff hit us.
Jeff:
Yeah, for the first time in a while, the other last start that Burns had, the only reason you didn’t have a hit a strikeout props, because just had too many pitches through a far too many. Didn’t have a terrible outing just through too many pitches. He’s back today and against a Minnesota team that doesn’t strike out a whole lot. I mean, I think they’re top 12, top 13 in baseball, but, that’s still nine, 10 times per game.
Look when Burns pitches, we have to think about the fact he’s just not going to give many runs up. It’s one of the best pitchers in baseball. This is not an overly effective Minnesota lineup, but I’m really looking more at this play that I’m going to make on a first five under here with a guy in Chris Archer who really isn’t getting a ton of credit, but you look over the last seven starts, he’s been damn good. I mean a whip just above one. He’s just been solid. Away from home opponents only hitting 198 off Chris Archer on the road. Usually it’s the other way around Archer’s been more effective on the road as opposed to at home.
We’re also looking at Burns. Over the last five starts, 57 strikeouts. That’s over 11 per game, that’s pretty damn effective. I think we see a lot of goose eggs here. Two strong pitchers, two lineups, I’m not real in love with. I know the Brewers over this year have been not effective for me from the plate. I need them to be not effective again. I like this four number, I need five to beat me. I just don’t think we see a ton of runs here in the first five, two strong pitchers, one guy in which he strikes out a lot of guys, doesn’t even put guys on base. That’s big here. Two good whips. I’m going to go under four in the first five between these 2. 2:10 matinee game, I’m hoping for no fireworks.
TC:
There you go. Scott, some thoughts on the game?
Scott:
I mean, it’s funny with Burns, somebody was texting me last night and talking about Burns, two of his last four starts, he’s only had five strikeouts. And I was like, “yeah, well, two of his last four starts, he’s had 10 strikeouts each.” So I think you’re kind of nitpicking if you’re looking for reasons to not Burns this season. He’s got 84 punch outs and 61 1/3 innings pitched at home. So I’m certainly not going to nitpick and bust the guy for having a couple of, for him, low strikeout counts when he’s still pitching extremely well on keeping guys from crossing home plate. Chris Archer, the one thing about Chris Archer, his FIP isn’t real good, that scares me. It’s higher than his ERA. His X ERA is closing in on five and that kind of stuff scares me a little bit.
I actually thought about laying the runs line here, laying the runner and a half with the Brewers. And then I backed off. And I have a tough time with teams that I don’t really trust their offense. And Archer’s funny because like Jeff said, he comes out with these nice stats, Archer. But then you look a little deeper and you’re thinking, man, is he going to, is he going to fall off this particular game? Well, I don’t to like to make too many bets guessing what a guy is going to get good or get bad, so to speak. And I decided to hold off the runs line playing and ended up passing this game, because I’m not so sure I’m going to have the Brewers leading by more than a run when they go to the bottom of the ninth or complete the top of the ninth. And being a home team and not getting that last at that scares me. And I’m messing with a runs line play with another home team tonight. So I think I’ve had enough of jumping on runs lines plays with home teams, not getting that last at bad.
So for me, it’s obviously a lean on the Brewers. How could you not, if you’re going to talk about a lean when you got Burns on the mound against almost anybody in the league? And again, Archer, I just don’t want to try to guess when he is going to fall off. The FIP says he’s due for a down tick, his X ERA and that kind of stuff, but just a pass for me guys.
TC:
Yeah. And with Archer, he gave up four runs and five innings in his last start. But I’ll say one thing about Archer, he usually doesn’t have those type of outings back to back, if you look at his ledger during the course of this year. And again, I was against Archer, a lot of games last year because he was still coming back from injury, but he’s settled down. Jeff’s right, that he has look pretty good. Last start against the White Sox, a little questionable, so we’ll see what that’s all about.
But let’s put Jeff down for a first five. Underplay makes a lot of sense, especially like you guys mentioned, you get Corbin Burns on the hill. You know for the most part, this guy’s going to go innings. He’s going to get punch outs. So under four looks pretty good. Lay 110 with that in the first five in this contest. All right. So Jeff’s in with that. Milwaukee and Minnesota today.
All right, next step, that’s an afternoon game in Milwaukee. Then we also got afternoon baseball in Oakland today as the Astros will close out their series before they head back home to face the Seattle Mariners of this coming weekend. So they got one more game in Oakland and the Astros a big favorite today. And I think a lot of people are thinking, okay, well, let’s see, they’re not going to get swept by the A’s because this line opened at 165 last night. Already got bet up here on Bet US to minus 200 for the Astros is Christian Javier going today against Cole Irwin. And the total in this game is seven, and a minus one 20 towards the under in this game.
Kind of interesting pitching match up here guys, because Cole Irwin has actually been the A’s best pitcher. You can say what you want about Frankie Montas, but we know that Montas has been injured, missed 18 days looked pretty good last night. But Irvin pretty much has been pretty consistent. Another oddity, I talked about it the other day about Odorizzi facing the A’s in three successive starts and then five of his last 12 starts. Well, Irwin is kind of in that same position here. He’ll be facing Houston for the third time in two weeks. And the fourth time since June the first. So he’s one and two in those prior three starts. So we’ll see what happens here. So some thoughts on that, on this game? We’ll start with you, Scott.
Scott:
Yeah, I break up the A’s what are they, five and one of the last six and they’ve scored 33 runs in the process. So five and a half runs per game. Cole Irvin as you mentioned on the mound, he’s a south paw. And TC, I was going to ask you about this a little bit because you obviously follow Houston so closely, but he’s a south paw, he’s had two starts against Houston in July and he shut them down both times 300 runs, nine base runners, 12 innings. He went six innings in each start. He hasn’t allowed a home run with just two walks in 27 July innings of action spanning four starts. So he has been as good as it gets.
And the one thing that I was going to mention to you and ask you about is your thoughts on this? Houston has one weakness, that’s it, one. And it’s that they struggle on the road against south paws. Their bottom third in baseball and batting average OPS WOBA, weighted runs created plus on the road against lefties. And it hasn’t gotten really much better over the last six weeks as it has been for the entire course of the season. This is usually their achilles heel. And again, you’re saying this all relatively speaking because they’ve been so darn good in every other aspect.
And I’m also a little nervous about Kristin Javier’s walks and home runs. And for July starts TC. Oakland’s been putting up runs over the last half dozen games, as I mentioned, and I was looking to play first five under guys, and I kept thinking, “boy, if I could just get a four, if I could just get a four”, and I was begging and it came three and a half. And I’ve checked just all over the place and I see three and a half’s everywhere.
And the problem with that is that yeah, Houston struggles against lefties, but at any point of any game, this team can hang a crooked number in an inning. And that scares me off when you get a first five total with this team that is under four runs, unless you got maybe Verlander against an ace.
So I decided to hold off. It is an opinion on under, in the first five innings. I don’t make a habit of playing against elite teams when they’re playing bad teams. Even when that bad team is going through a nice little run, I usually just look to play the elite team or pass all together. That’s what I decided to do. But I could certainly make an argument for Oakland again, not that they’re going to go up there and get the win, but in this pitching matchup, and again, Houston’s struggling to been on the road against south paws. I would not fault anybody for taking a shot at the underdog yet again, even though Houston’s going to be raring to go to stave off that road sweep by this team.
TC:
Yeah. I think as far as the lefthanders go, early on in the season, that applied. And I remember looking at this number the other day, and I don’t have it in front of me guys, but you guys probably do there because you can multitask better than me. But I believe that the number of Houston against lefthanders is something 27 and 13. It’s not that bad. And as of the last month, it really makes sense for them to hit lefthanders because we’ve always talked about them in the past with a heavy right-handed hitting lineup. So I know in the beginning of the season we had talked about this for some reason they were struggling. But I think over the last few weeks they’ve been-
Scott:
That’s still bad, TC. The metrics aren’t. The metrics. aren’t-
TC:
I’m talking about the overall wins and losses.
Scott:
Oh yeah, wins and losses, no doubt.
TC:
Yeah. And I think it’s 27 and 13, something that, I don’t know. I agree, again for me I was a little hesitant with this play. Just because Urban’s pitching good, the Astros tend to get up for the big games, the big teams, and they have struggled with the A’s. Today I’m going to take a shot with them. And again, the metrics really doesn’t make any sense for me to go with this play. It’s just a gut feeling. And I’ll tell you why I’m going with it. Javier is one of these guys that we’ve seen, can basically shut a team down, have 13, 14 strikeouts in a game. And he can be that guy like you mentioned, Scott that can have an off day here today.
But I’ll say this, when they play the A’s and then coming off that AL series, Dusty had given some players some days off. So Monday Tucker sat out of the game. Last night, Altuve and Gurriel sat out of the game. Today they’re going to have their A lineup in. So Tucker and Alvarez will play, they’re both lefthanders though. You’re going to have Gurriel. Altuve is going to be back at the top. So I think that there’s a message here that they don’t want to get swept in this game. Again, it wouldn’t surprise me if the A’s pulled off another miracle, but I just have this feeling that the Astros are going to come up with one of these 6-2, 7-2, 7-3 type of games today and Javier is going to be good. So I’m going to take a shot with the Astros on the run line today. Jeff?
Scott:
And TC, real quick, that’s the reason also that I decided not to play the under in the first five with it being a three and a half. Because you get the studs back in the lineup today. I did this early in the season where I didn’t pull a trigger automatically early in the season when I would have a very good baseball team looking to stave off a road sweep and they were favored, $1.30, $1.40. $1.50. I was looking to play on those teams quite a bit early in the season and it worked well. And of course again with Houston being pretty much back to full strength today, that kept me off that first 500. Can’t fault you for that at all.
TC:
Day baseball too, that ball does fly out of Oakland much better than it does at night. And we’ve seen that ball go out the last couple nights as well. All right, Jeff, give us some thoughts on the game.
Jeff:
Yeah. I don’t have much. I think sometimes TC, you hold down a little much to Houston. You basically told us how you don’t really want to back Houston, but you’re just going to back Houston.
TC:
Yeah, because I don’t believe, and I’ve said this before, they’re not going to lose two, three games in a row and especially-
Jeff:
Maybe they are. I mean, it’s possible that after the All Star break, maybe they’ll lose. Listen, I’ll say this. You’ve had a good read on them, so why not stay with it? That said, Javier is not the same pitcher on the road, okay. You look at his whip, 0.89 at home, on the road it’s 1.3, that’s not a good whip. I know we’re grasping for straws sometimes with Javier, but he’s just not as effective.
Now that being said, this is not a good Oakland lineup, but they’re playing with little confidence. If you’d have told me they’d ever win five out of six, I’d tell you’re crazy. They’re just not very good. They’re a beaten bunch who most won’t be on this team in a month. So yeah, I hear you, but, maybe this is one of those…. Remember when the Pirates played the Dodgers, “no way the Pirates can beat the Dodgers three times in a row” and then they go out and do it. So I think the number works here though. You mentioned it’s 160. It’s up over and close to 210. So yeah, they should win, and if they win, I don’t think it comes by one run. So I guess they make case for both sides.
TC:
Yeah. And I’ll say this too, when Scott talked about how he felt about this card today, honestly guys, I don’t love the card and with my two plays here today I could see either one. So I’m not advocating, “Hey, go hammer this, that I love this today.” And I really would’ve loved to make a play on the Yankees or the Mets. I could probably make a case for either side. But when you do that you just can’t make a play. So yeah, it’s just one of these gut feeling plays today. And like I said, the numbers may not back it up, but we’ll see what happens here today. So I’ll take a shot with the Astros on the road, hoping the big bats, and thinking the big bats could come back today on the road in Oakland.
Next up guys, let’s talk about San Francisco and Arizona. Another one of those games, you got Logan Webb going for the Giants today and Zac Gallen for the Diamondbacks. Both pitchers have been pretty good. Giants minus 115 in this game, the total is eight shaded towards the under, at minus 115. I like Logan Webb here in this spot guys. He’s used to pitching against this team, he’s used to pitching in this ballpark as well too. Logan Webb is 4 and 0 against the Diamondbacks. He has 29 strikeouts in those games and only four walks. He’s given up two runs or fewer in those starts against the Diamondbacks. And then when you look at basically what Logan Webb is doing during the course of the season, eight of his last nine starts, he’s given up only two runs or less.
On the flip side, you got Zac Gallen, his last fives versus San Francisco, he’s allowed to combine 17 runs against the Giants. He’s only averaged going four innings in those starts. I know the Giants are going backwards right now, but when you look at their lineup, aside from Crawford, they’ve got everybody back Longoria’s out, but the way Longoria’s been playing it’s really not an advantage to have him in the lineup. Belt will be back in the lineup today. So I think the Giants are in a good spot here. I think Webb turns in a good performance. I like the Giants in this game. Jeff?
Jeff:
Yeah. I just don’t think they’re a very good baseball team quite honestly. I mean, what did you say? Six straight losses I think? I don’t think they’re very good. I think they’re at this point last season, they obviously struck lightning in a bottle. They’re inconsistent. They remind me a lot of the Phillies, quite frankly. For a week, they’ll look good, and then they’ll lose six in a row. I don’t really trust their lineup. That being said, I do like Webb and I think you’re onto something here with him.
And that being said with the Diamondbacks, I would’ve thought this team would be 10, 15 games under 500. I think they’ve exceeded expectations. I think by season’s end, they’re going to be an okay team, might not at the playoffs, but with the people they have, the bullpen that they don’t have, with the lineup that we could probably name two or three guys on this group. I’m pretty happy with what they’ve done. I like Gallen too, this’d probably be a good first five under. I wouldn’t be looking towards a full game because either bullpen is good. Giants strike out a lot, could see some zeros on the board. Didn’t have much here. I think it’s a flippy kind of game. I’ll root for you, TC with just a better team. But I don’t the Giants. I think they’re an inconsistent group.
TC:
Yeah. All right. So Scott?
Scott:
Yeah. One thing about the D-backs is they’ve got one of my favorite managers, and I know he doesn’t get a lot of praise because last year Arizona was so badly banged up, start to finish and they had the horrible season. But Lovullo’s one of my favorite managers. And I know a few Bostonians who wouldn’t mind if he was still managing in Fenway, and a member of that organization.
But this team comes to play hard. I mean, every single day, whether they’re winning or losing. And believe it or not… Listen, we all knew San Francisco won way more games than they should have last year. That this team wasn’t that good. They basically played over their heads, give them credit, it was a great season, we all knew there’d be regression this year. But I didn’t think it would be as much as it is. If they lose this game today, they’re only going to be three games ahead of Arizona, as far as the record is concerned. And I didn’t think I’d be saying that if you would’ve asked me back in early May, that’s the case though.
When Webb loses, by the way, it’s not his fault. I mean, this guy, you just mentioned some of those numbers, TC. He just put up fantastic numbers for the most part, yet they’ve won four of his last 10 starts. Even though his numbers have been pretty darn terrific, their metrics, San Francisco over the last six weeks on the road against righties are near the bottom of the league. Which scares you a little bit because Zac Gallen can throw it sometimes 190. I think it’s a 198 batting average against now and 10 home starts. He’s given up one home run every 12 innings pitched on his home bump. It’s another game where the starting pitchers I think are going to do well.
Jeff mentioned first five under, which is four. I like that here. Both pitchers are good, they’re solid, the first two times through a batting order. And of course that’s what I’m always looking at when I’m looking to play first five unders, they both done well. The key is how much do you put into what Gallen’s doing at home this year? How much do you put into what you said TC, that Gallen does against San Francisco? Because he has struggled against them and that’s the line that you’re walking in this one. But I agree with Jeff. I think first five under is the way to go, and I will also be rooting for you to go 2.0 with your top players TC, obviously, with Houston and with the Giants.
TC:
All right. So put me down for the Giants. Good price in the Giants game virtually, I pick them in this one. So take a shot at the Giants minus 115 in this contest, hoping for a good outing from Logan Webb today.
All right, next up, we talked a little Subway Series that’d kick off the show. Let’s handicap the game now. It is our Bet US featured game of the day. It is the Yankees and the Mets. And the Mets, $1.75 favorite. If you the Yanks, plus 1.55, there is a reason this number is that way. And that is because you have Max Scherzer on the hill for the Mets. And again, Domingo Herman going for the Yankees, total seven and a half minus 125 to the under guys. A lot of under money coming in here. So we’ll see what happens here. So for guys at first glance, you look at this line, think, “wait, Yankees? Plus 155? Are you kidding me? When are you ever going to get that?” Well again, you got Mad Max on the hill and when you look at Mad Max, he can be fantastic. Scott, break this game down.
Scott:
We all three talked a little bit about the Yankees got to make a little few adjustments here and there if they really want to win a World Series championship, you would think. Check out their last 36 games against teams who are above 500, not just 500, but above 500. And you’ll see they’re 20 and 16. That’s not horrible by any means, but that’s 555 baseball over the course of the entire season, if you drag that record out from start to finish. Which right now at this point of the year would have them in third place in three of baseball’s six divisions. So 20 and 16, last 36 against teams that have winning records, and the Mets certainly do that.
Then you got Herman who was horrible in his first start back, although it was against the Astros. But really Herman has been a starter more than a reliever, three seasons and one game, this one game this season. And he’s only delivered the goods in one of those three seasons, which was 2019 as far as I’m concerned. And you recall, that season I think he was 18 and 4, guys? But he wasn’t good on the road. It was crazy. He had an ERA of 545 on the road. A home runs per nine means pitched ratio of 2.27. Yet his overall record was 18 wins in 22 decisions.
I can’t back the Yankees as much as I’d to get him to, at this price going up against Scherzer? Listen, if these guys do what they do, if Herman comes out and pitches like he does, if Scherzer comes out and pitches like he does, the Mets won this game. So I’m not going to try to sit there and find a spot where Scherzer’s going to struggle. It’s a bit pricey, but the Mets and Scherzer in the first five innings might not be a bad play. And again, it’s a little pricey and you don’t have to worry about the bull pit after Scherzer, if he comes out and does what he normally does. So that would be my lean, my opinion would be first five innings, Scherzer and the Mets in this one.
TC:
Right. Jeff?
Jeff:
Yeah. So obviously Scott knows this, I know TC knows this. It’s not sexy to lay 175, 180 in baseball, it just isn’t. Most people are going to look at it how you looked at it and said, “Yankee lost last night. There’s no way they’re going to lose tonight. That’s a great price.” The truth is Herman was atrocious in his first start against the Houston Astros and it’s not going to get easier tonight against the New York Mets.
I don’t know if he’s totally back. As you alluded to Scott, it doesn’t maybe seem like that. We also look at the fact that, as I said earlier, when you take out a player like Michael King out of a bullpen that’s very strong, what do we know? You’ve got to bring somebody in put them into a high leverage situation. And what do we know about Aroldis Chapman? Well, we all know he’s a complete scumbag off the field, but he’s been a bit of a mess quite honestly. He doesn’t look like the same pitcher. He’s not coming in there and as dominant as he was. Throw in the fact that we’re playing Scherzer here, who if I can get him under 200, I have some interest quite honestly. He’s as good a pitcher as we have in baseball. He’s given up seven home runs over 75 innings.
Look, I’m doing it, I’m playing the Mets here. I think this is a sharp play. I think a lot of people that are smart are playing this. Because the number is now up to 185 at Bet US, 10 cents higher than the number we quoted at about 10:30. So I’m going to add this play. I don’t do these much. I don’t have a lot of success, betting against the Yankees, but I think the Mets sweep them here.
TC:
Yeah. And as far as Scherzer goes, in his last start against the Padres, he gave up a two run homer and that was it. And he was pulled after six innings. But for the most part he’s been fantastic, and his team scored no runs for him that day. So he’s been fantastic, 39 strikeouts and two walks in his last four starts. Very interesting match up here because you’ve got Mad Max and what he can do on the hill, always that bulldog mentality going against the big bats of the Yankees. So very interesting matchup today. So we’re going to add a play for Jeff and he’s going to take Mad Max at home and yeah, City Field will be rocking here today again like I said.
Jeff:
Keep in mind as well, Miguel Castro is on the DL as well, another reliever for the Yankees. So again, we’re going to have to start bringing people up who fear the Yankees. And look Herman, this could be one of those four or five spots he gives up over three or four innings. So yeah, give me the Mets I’m on them.
TC:
And back to the Yankees bullpen, we know guys that Chapman has been horrible like we said, he’s now a middle reliever. King was their best pitcher, even though he was the setup guy. But Clay Holmes, I still don’t trust Clay Holmes. I mean, Clay Holmes has never really been in this role with the Pirates and he comes to the Yankees and… It’s like Carpenter. And I’ve talked about this weeks ago, you get these guys to this situation and they’re starting to blossom. The difference between Carpenter and Holmes is, Carpenter continues to roll, but Holmes we’ve seen some regression here. And not a fan of this Yankees backside of the bullpen. And I will say this, they’re really going to try to stretch Scherzer out today. And don’t be surprised if Scherzer goes deep in this game because Diaz was asked to get four outs in that game last night and Showalter does not to do that. So take Diaz off the table, and he is by far their best guy in the bullpen as well too.
Jeff:
You also throw in one other thing on the bullpen Loáisiga’s in there recently. Loáisiga’s been horrific for them-
TC:
Yeah. He won’t pitch today because he went multiple S yesterday. So yeah. They’re going to be thin today. No question. All right. So Jeff’s going to take a shot with the Mets. All right. St. Louis in Toronto, the red hot Toronto Blue Jays. They won seven in a row right now and they’re doing it against the St. Louis Cardinals today, Adam Wainwright going for the Cards. And then Kevin Gausman going for Toronto today. Big favorite is Kevin Gausman 260. The total in this game is eight minus 115 towards the under. And one of the reasons, well, two of the reasons I guess, this line is big, A, is you got Gausman going, you got the red hot Toronto Blue Jays, but still, remember the Cardinals made this trip without their number three and four hitters without Goldschmidt and Arenado. And, and then Wainwright has not been good at all, and ERA about seven. Scott, talk to us about this game.
Scott:
Yeah. I talked about this on Monday and I talked to you, I don’t know, late last week. And just said that I was going to go and ride Toronto until they beat me two games in a row, and we’re still doing it. We had them over the weekend and we cashed over the weekend with this team. We had them again last night, we won again. They had a real big, I think it was a five or a six spot in one inning when they were only up four to three at the time, and then went on to get the seven run that win. So we’ve been back at the Blue Jays and that’s been good this year to jump on these good teams, quality teams, when they get into a little bit of a run and you just stay on them until they snap out of that run.
They’re going for their eight straight win here, I’m betting they get it done by at least two runs. You mentioned Adam Wainwright, his home road dichotomy is large. He’s been knocked around for a 770, 70 RA and 150 whip in his last four on the road. How about a 2.45 home runs per nine inning ratio in those games. HIs overall season long numbers away from home have not been good either. His ERA approaching five, so it’s also worth noting that the Cardinals have lost each of those last four starts. Maybe I buried the lead, but you didn’t. And that was the Cardinals will be without their top three home run hitters, Goldschmidt, Arenado, of course, because of the Canadian vax rule. And then Juan Yepez, who has been out for a while now with that arm injury. The first two players mentioned have combined for 42 homers on 136 RBI, and Yepez had 11 dingers before suffering his injury.
So there’s a whole lot of power that’s missing from this lineup, 53 home runs between those three guys. Toronto counters, as you mentioned with Gausman 198 FIP, 3.7 WAR. He owns a 225 ERA in his last four starts, 29 punch outs, five walks. And then there’s the Blue Jays’ bats, Toronto hammers righties at home. They are number one in baseball in that situation in OPS and WOBA, number two in weighted runs created plus. They’re top two in those categories, plus team batting average over the past six weeks. And it’s them or Houston, if you look at all those metrics, at home against varieties, it’s Toronto’s in first, Houston’s in second. Next category, Houston’s in first, Toronto’s in second. I mean, that’s how well they’ve been seeing the baseball at home against righties.
So I don’t prefer to lay a run and a half with home teams because you don’t get that final at bat if you need it, if you’re only up one. But in this case, again, this is that last game we talked about. If both teams’ players come out and do what they do, Toronto wins this game by two runs or more. If they come out and all of a sudden there’s a fluky start and a bad way by Gausman or Wayne-o finally finds a road bump to his liking and finds that sweet of licker away from home, then you lose. But all you got to do is get guys to do what they normally have done over the course of the season. And if they can do that, I think the Blue Jays win this game by two or more.
TC:
Yeah. And the Blue Jays when George Springer is back hot, I mean look out and he had the grand slam again last night for Toronto in that sixth inning that you talked about to propel them to the victory. But yeah, when you get guys that, that are healthy at the top of the order and they’re banging, what a great sign that is. So I agree with you wholeheartedly on every aspect there, Scott. Jeff?
Jeff:
So Gausman last pitched Friday, and I didn’t get to talk about this, but truly in my 33 years, probably about 25 years of watching baseball, it was one of the most embarrassing things I’ve ever seen. We all know what happened, 28 to five. What do we not remember? Gausman pitched, and it was truly one of the weirdest outings you could have. He went five innings, which would correlate to 15 outs he needs to get. 10 strikeouts in 15 at-bats, gave up two home runs, seven hits. It was one of the weirdest outings I’ve ever seen quite honestly. It was just a weird game all around. I think this is a strong play by Scott. I honestly think about maybe some sort of Blue Jays, Met parlay if you like the Mets. The Blue Jays seem like a strong play here. I’ll keep saying this vax thing is just unfair. I don’t know how they can continue to allow this, if it’s baseball. How do you allow this TC? I mean, it’s just unfair.
TC:
Well, again, baseball really has no control when a government is controlling it. Because when you’re playing in a foreign country, it’s just Britney Griner in Russia. It’s the exact same thing. People wonder what the heck’s going on here? US has no control over that. You can do what you want in your own country. Major League Baseball doesn’t govern that. So that’s the answer, unfortunately.
Jeff:
But they did govern it at one point, and said… Well, I guess that was more the government though, and they said, we’ll play in Tampa or wherever hell they played. In Buffalo.
TC:
Yeah. It was the organization dealing with the government and that sort of thing, saying, “okay, let’s get out of here, but if you’re going to play our games in our country, in our city, in our province, hey, you’re going to abide by our rules.” So I know it’s crazy because we’ve never had to really look at that before. We’re always looking at injury reports, right guys? But now we have to look at vax reports. Who’s making the trip into Canada? And it’s a real thing because to handicap, we have to look at that.
And like you said, Scott, I mean, that is a huge thing. I mean, not only losing three the heart of your order, two main guys, two all stars, perennial all stars, year in and year out. But the home runs that those guys have and what they’re doing this year, you take them out of the lineup, how can you even think about playing the Cardinals and especially Adam Wainwright. A guy that I’ve talked about, I think he’s on his last legs anyhow. And plus you get a red hot Toronto Blue Jay team. And yeah thanks for bringing up that 28 to 5 game, Jeff, because that was just such a laugher. I mean you’re looking at the score and thinking, “is that a misprint? Is that the Toronto Argonauts?” You know what I’m talking about there, Scott?
Scott:
Well, Argos don’t score that many points, give me a break. I mean they might score five, I don’t know about 28 this year. I was watching that, Jeff hit it right on the head because I was thinking the same thing as I was watching. I’m like “this guy’s either striking guys out or he is giving up a home run”, talking about Gausman in that game, yet he wins by 23 runs. I do have to mention for full disclosure last night I mentioned I had Toronto. I did parlay them with the Dodgers. I forgot how darn good the Washington Nationals are on the road, and obviously I’m kidding. So I did lose that play even though the, to Toronto Blue Jays won, because I did Parlay them with the Dodgers last night.
I was not going to play the Cardinals no matter what in this game, when I started looking at it and saw who the pitchers were, breaking it down and no Goldie and no Arenado. So it was a case of either playing Toronto or passing. And I love games where, it doesn’t mean you win every time, you certainly don’t, but I love games betting on games where you know if your side, which is going up against a hamstrung side, normally due to injuries in this case, the vax situation, if your team does just what they do, they win the game for you.
And again, it doesn’t happen all the time. None of us are going to go out there and have a 70% winning season in any sport. It doesn’t happen. But the bottom line is that it’s a situation where if I can get this team to do what they do, I’m going up against the junior varsity Cardinals be without those two players, they should win the game and they should do it by margin. So that’s why it’s the best bet for me today.
TC:
You got it. All right. All’s you can do is handicap what’s in front of you. And it makes all the sense in the world. Hopefully it plays out that way for you and anyone who’s backing the Toronto Blue Jays today on the run line. So Scott’s got the Blue Jays today, hoping for a big performance against Adam Wainwright. So we’ll get Scott down for that.
All right, Q&A time. Hit us in the chat room, any questions you got? We got a few more minutes. Any of the games that we did not touch on, you want an opinion or two. Hit us here in the chat room here on the MLB Show. Remember to make sure you hit that bell so you get the notifications when we go live here Monday through Friday at 12:00 noon Eastern here at the MLB show, on Bet US TV presented by America’s favorite sportsbook, Bet US.
All right, Marky Mark has got a question. He wants to know our thoughts on Tampa Bay and Baltimore. Any thoughts on that game, Jeff?
Jeff:
I don’t have much. I mean, obviously Baltimore has been much better. Wells has been very solid and I backed him last time out though and it wasn’t real effective for me. I’ve noticed as well, sharp money seems to be liking Rasmussen a lot this year, they’ve been betting him. Just two teams I don’t really want to bet. They’re not really going anywhere, not really interested in either of them. I think they’re both getting up there as far as, you want to back them a little bit more, but I have no real interest in this game.
TC:
Scott?
Scott:
I’ve got thoughts on every game on the board except for the one that Mark Holmes asked about. And I agree with what Jeff said and the one thing that he mentioned also is that it’s sharp money coming on Rasmussen because that’s not a guy that everybody talks about, general fans talk about, or guys who are heading into casinos in Vegas just to have some action going, some entertainment. So it’s sharp money that’s been backing him. But yeah, that’s the one game out of the entire card where I just don’t have any opinion whatsoever, Tampa Bay and Baltimore today.
TC:
All right. Any other questions feel free to hit us here in the waning couple minutes here, before we wrap things up. Scott, you mentioned the Dodgers last night, they got day baseball again at Chavez Ravine. Could it be, here we go? We talked about the Pirates sweeping the Dodgers, going back two months ago. Could it happen with those nasty nationals today? But then again, we mentioned the caveat, big prices on the Dodgers with not so good pitchers. And again, you get these situations where you have these inflated lines, is it the Dodgers day today do you think?
Scott:
If they can’t beat Corbin? I mean, come on. I was talking to another handicapper last night, we were texting back and forth around 10 o’clock last night and I’m like “I’m playing Toronto again. I’m just going to stick to it. I’m going to keep playing them till they beat me a couple of times and I’ll do that.” And he was like “well, you want to go against Corbin, right?” I’m like “I always want to go against Corbin”. But I don’t know that I want to parlay tonight, the Dodgers as part of that play. And then I’m looking at the runs line price and I’m seeing a $1.45 on that run and a half, and that got a little bit expensive. Listen, he’s been a disaster all season. I’m surprised, it shows you how bad Washington is that Corbin’s still going out there each and every night.
But you’re right, Pittsburgh and Washington, the Dodgers seem to have let downs. You’ve got three starts by Haney that have been decent. Listen, look in the lineup. If Mookie Betts is going to play, maybe take a shot at the over. I thought when he hit that home run last night to get things going for them, and then they tied the game up. He makes a big play, throwing a guy out at home when they could have dropped down three to one. Instead that’s the final out of the inning, unassisted, incredible… well it’s assisted because the catcher has to catch it and tag the guy out. But the throw from right field to nail the base runner at the plate to keep that two to one, then they come back in the next inning, they tie it up and then take a lead. I thought they were on their way to a win.
But it’s like Houston, the Dodgers right now. Houston comes off a big series, they’re playing against the Oakland A’s, there is motivation, but it’s not quite the same as playing the Yankees or the Dodgers case playing the Giants, they hated Giants or the Braves or the Mets. And so there might be a little bit of a letdown. But Corbin is horrible. I mean, letdown or not, they’ve got to be able to beat this guy around a little bit.
TC:
I’m not a fan of Mr. Haney, a green acres reference there Scott.
Scott:
Problem, a $1.45 on the runs on. And you got to keep your man as Haney?
TC:
And it’s funny that you talk about when Betts hit the home… Or they tied it up last night, two-two. Because I was out at dinner last night and that game was on the screen. I go, “wait a minute, let me look at an in-game wager here.” At that point in time they tied it up two-two, minus 325. I said, “no, thank you.” And what was that? That was in the fifth or sixth inning? Six inning last night, right?
Scott:
Yeah. And then they took the lead, they went up three to two and then gave it right back up in the sixth or seventh inning. I didn’t look at the in game line. I had no idea it was that high. I would’ve guessed 280ish anyway, because it’s the Dodgers, and Matts, but 325? Wow.
TC:
Yeah. It was crazy. Jeff, some thoughts? And Mario wants to know about Padre’s Tigers today.
Jeff:
Yeah. So I’ve talked before about this. I know I’m not as old as you two luckily. But, I’ve been doing this-
TC:
You’re lacking that wisdom, Jeff. That’s why you lack that wisdom.
Jeff:
No, but listen, when it comes to gambling, I’ve been gambling since I was eight years old, all right. I’ve been doing this a long time and this is one of those things where-
TC:
Hopscotch doesn’t count Jeff, okay?
Jeff:
No, but this is one of those, I’m sitting in my cubicle at work and I just want to gamble, so I’m going to just play this. I’m never one to play these types of games, unless there’s a market advantage for me, like I have maybe with a Burns or something that. Look, I don’t not like Darvish. I just don’t really trust the Padres. The Tigers are weird to me, they have a good bullpen, they don’t score any runs. Skubal’s actually been okay.
Look, if this is a coin flip, maybe I just play the Padres because I like Darvish and I think they have a better lineup. But we’ve talked all year, the Padres are just blah, until they get Tatis back. It’s a rogue game for them, and again, these are those games where I think people are just betting them just to bet. I think there are better options on this card, Mario. And I would look elsewhere.
Scott:
This one starts at about what, 20, 25 minutes. So if anybody wants to get down on that you got a little bit of time. It starts at 1:10 PM Eastern. The lean for me would be San Diego, first five innings, which is last I checked, $1.30. If you look at the overall numbers for these two starters, talking about Darvish and Skubal, over the entire course of the season, they’re pretty similar. But look at the last 10 or 11 starts by Darvish and his numbers are pretty hot. Skubal, not too hot in June and July. So there has been one guy, one pitcher in Darvish moving up, the other guy, moving down over the course of the last six weeks or so. And I think the Padres have the advantage there. I agree with Jeff, it is really tough for me to back the San Diego Padres over the last month or so, especially when they venture away from home. But yeah, if I had to jump on this one, it would be San Diego first five, again, it’s right around a $1.30.
TC:
Finally, Ed wants some thoughts on Seattle and Texas and the Mariners going for a sweep against the Rangers here today. But you got Marco Gonzalez going and trepidation every time Marco Gonzalez goes, usually he’s a go against for me. But then again, what Texas is throwing Gray out there I believe, so conventional wisdom says, Texas can get one of these games. They have a history of playing a lot of one run games between these two teams, they’re usually close, usually go into the late innings. So maybe a slight lean for Texas in this game. I want no part of Marco Gonzalez. Any quick thoughts, either one of you guys on this one?
Jeff:
I don’t want Marco Gonzalez either. I haven’t played Texas I don’t think, once this year. Just another game I don’t have much on. I think obviously we need to start battening down the hatches and betting teams that we have good experiences with, we have good numbers on. I think these teams are just coin flipping groups, especially Gonzales. Seattle, I think had their moment in the sun when they had that win streak. They had a guy in the Derby, which is great, but another team not going anywhere fast, poorly owned. Is Jerry Dipoto still up there? What a terrible owner he is.
TC:
Scott?
Scott:
I agree with you guys. I mean, it’s one of those things where I actually marked down before I jumped into this game late last night to handicap it as a potential under. And then the more I started thinking about Gonzales, the more I thought I just don’t want to get involved on under or backing him. I do lean towards the under, but I don’t think it should be a bet.
Listen, the reason I thought about the under and actually thought about maybe Texas is because Gray has been excellent in his last three starts or whatever it’s been, two or three starts. Both of these pitchers do prefer daytime action, daytime starts over evening starts. But as I started digging a little bit deeper into all the metrics on Gonzalez, I thought it’s probably a good game to leave alone. I got enough stuff going today where a game like this to me, is almost the way Jeff was describing San Diego, Detroit. But again, a lean towards the under, but man, you got to hold your nose when you walk to the window. As we say in Las Vegas, because you got Gonzalez on the mound for one of these two teams.
TC:
Yeah. All right. Appreciate everyone chiming in with the questions here. Okay, let’s wrap things up today on this Wednesday Best Bets. Let’s go over them and take a look at what we’re advocating here today. Jeff’s going to go with the Twins and Brewers first five under really that is because of Corbin Burns going today, looking for a shut down performance there, first five under four total runs. That is what he’s looking at there.
Scott’s going with the Toronto Blue Jays, hopefully a big win, the bats keep pounding away against the St. Louis Cardinals today, Toronto at home laying a run and a half. And I’ll be on the Houston Astros today laying the run and a half against the A’s and then San Francisco with Logan Webb at Arizona. Those are our best bets.
Jeff:
I also added the Mets.
TC:
You did, yeah. Jeff added the Mets with Max Scherzer, right Jeff? We got to add that on there too. Scherzer’s got to go for the Mets against the Yankees. Laying a little wood today, but again, Mets got a little mojo going, we’ll see if they can continue that and get a little brief two game Subway Series sweep over the Yanks.
All right. Appreciate everyone for joining us. Be back at it again tomorrow for a Thursday edition, a little bit lighter card there tomorrow. So we’ll handicap that for you. And remember click that bell, get the notifications. We go live Monday through Friday, 12:00 noon Eastern, right here at the MLB Show on Bet US TV, and also check out all the great shows on Bet US, no matter what the sport. All right, guys, have a good one. For Scott Spreitzer, Jeff Nadu, we will reconvene again tomorrow. TC Martin saying so long for the MLB Show here on Bet US TV.
